DECENTRALISED CONTROL

OF POWER STATIONS
6th MAY
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN
KIM YEN THAI - 11826955
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The report shows the risk management strategy for the decentralised control of
power stations. It covers major relevant ongoing projects about the reliable
energy system. The study is analysed according to the AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009
standard.

In initial, a project brief has demonstrated the definition of the innovation energy
technology with its benefits to the environment, economic, and society.
Moreover, the project scope and its objectives and risk management framework
are analysed.

Next, communication and consultation plans are presented to address accurately

risk matters and examine internal and external stakeholders who are involved in
the project. Based on obtained results, their influence and interest are identified
then applied to the power/interest grid

Later, the report establishes the external and internal context of the
organisation. In addition, the context of risk management process and risk
criteria are clarified together. Each responsibility is studied to relevant
stakeholders.

Subsequently, risk assessment stage are defined, consisting of risk identification,

risk analysis and risk evaluation. Each subprocess is applied the appropriate
approach to achieving the requirements. By applying brainstorming and checklist
method, risk events are identified carefully. It results in 23 risks related to
political, economic, society and technical sectors which are related directly to
risk register. Moreover, the obtained risks are investigated associated with
likelihood and their consequences applying a qualitative risk assessment matrix.
Last but not least, ALARP principle is applied to measure risk evaluation process.

After that, a risk treatment plan are presented with a number of options to
decide effective ones. FMEA tool is essential in summary potential failures pros
and cons, and also, the adjustment after-action plans are taken place.

Finally, the stage of monitoring and review presents under control risk plans by
organising periodic activities with relevant parties responsibilities.

Word counts: 3329

Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................ 1
I. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................ 1
1.1. Project definition....................................................................................... 1
1.2. Project Scope............................................................................................ 2
1.3. Project Objectives..................................................................................... 2
1.4. Risk Management Process.........................................................................3
II. Communication and Consultation....................................................................4
2.1. Stakeholder identification.........................................................................4
2.2. Stakeholder analysis.................................................................................5
III. Establishing the context............................................................................... 7
3.1. Internal context......................................................................................... 7
3.2. External context........................................................................................ 8
3.3. The context of the risk management process...........................................9
3.4. Risk criteria............................................................................................... 9
IV. Risk assessment......................................................................................... 10
4.1. Risk identification....................................................................................10
4.2. Risk analysis........................................................................................... 11
Existing controls and their effectiveness.......................................................13
4.3. Risk evaluation........................................................................................ 13
V. Risk treatment............................................................................................... 15
Risk treatment options..................................................................................... 15
VI. Monitoring and review................................................................................16
REFERENCE.......................................................................................................... 17
APPENDICES......................................................................................................... 18
Appendix A: Risk Identification Checklist..........................................................18
Appendix B: Risk Register.................................................................................19
Appendix C: FMEA Analysis............................................................................... 22
Table of Figures
Figure 1 The comparison of centralised and decentralised system.......................1
Figure 2 The energy self- sufficient island..............................................................2
Figure 3 Risk Management Process........................................................................3
Figure 4 Power/ Interest grid.................................................................................. 6
Figure 5 Customer satisfaction mission.................................................................7
Figure 6 ALARP principle...................................................................................... 14
Figure 7 Risk treatment process..........................................................................15

Table 1 Stakeholder identification..........................................................................4

Table 2 Stakeholder analysis.................................................................................. 5
Table 3 Potential risks.......................................................................................... 10
Table 4 Likelihood/ Consequences.......................................................................12
Table 5 Brief description...................................................................................... 12
Table 6 Periodic monitoring plan..........................................................................16
Table 7 Individuals' responsibilities in monitoring and review.............................16
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I. INTRODUCTION
I.1. Project definition
Decentralised energy system can be defined as an energy evolution which
constructs the electricity system adjacent local consumptions. The system
integrates power stations including more than one energy producing genres; for
example, wind turbines, heat cogeneration plants or solar panels, that provides
environmental wastage and slashing CO2 emissions.

As compared with centralised electricity system used fossil fuel burning with
extremely associated CO2 emissions, decentralised energy brings the beneficial
environment. In particular, the proposed system supports the renewable energy,
utilising efficient energy input during transmission. Besides environmental
advantages, it also offers an economical effectiveness, the reliable supply
benefits, and social assets.

The figure 1 demonstrates the comparison of traditional and modern energy

technology. The innovative power system combines distribution electricity grids
locally or nationally which are generated from wind farms and cogeneration
stations.

Figure 1 The comparison of centralised and decentralised system

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An example of one of decentralised energy applications. The figure 2 proposes a

self-sufficient project by constructing onshore and offshore wind turbines, solar
stations and biomass plants to generate electricity for a whole island.

Figure 2 The energy self- sufficient island

I.2. Project Scope

However, there are various challenges for renewable energy sources as
following:

Strong impact on inherent from traditional energy types due to requiring a

large amount of capital cost.
Project sponsors challenges, because of limited managerial capacity, long
term contracts.
External barriers from energy factors, holding on precarious legislation,
the faulty market actions, shortage of trustworthy partners.
Financial issue in underdeveloping countries related to inadequate
funding, misinformation and low awareness to shareholders.

I.3. Project Objectives

The conceptual project will be evaluated as following as several concerns:

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The ability of capital and operating costs increase during the project time.
The schedule for the project, such as start-up delay time, installation time
of the energy management system or speed up the process to alternative
from old energy to clean one.
The project quality, in particular, the adaptation for customer
requirements as well as the power stations, such as onshore wind
turbines, district heating grids by solar thermal technology, biomass
cogeneration plants and photovoltaic technologies.
The safety and environmental regulations which affect the project process

These concepts result in project success when stakeholders are satisfied,

investment are returned and also project performance is sustainable.

I.4. Risk Management Process

Based on AS/NZS ISO 31000 2009, constructing decentralised power control
system must confront this standard in related to risk management process.
There are five main sub-sequences will be detailed in the following sections.

Figure 3 Risk Management Process

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II. Communication and Consultation

External and internal stakeholders are required to communicate and consult
during the risk management process taking place. It is noticeable that
communication and consultant plans are developed accurately and precisely at
first. The aims are to ensure a whole process implemented effectively and
stakeholders perceptions of risk.

The established context regarding the plans may follow:

Transfer forcefully appropriate data to stakeholders interests.

Identify potential risks sufficiently and analyse them in alternative
perceptions of expertise.
Acknowledge the responsibilities of involved members in managing risk
events.
Keep updating defining relevant risks through the process of project to
tackle risks on time.
Raise the awareness of individual involving in the project in terms of high
level.

II.1. Stakeholder identification

According to the project research, it has two stakeholder groups who concerns its
mission, consisting of internal and external stakeholders. The formers are a
group or individual who directly work through the project while the later are
indirect parties and commit in some way because of project decision.

Table 1 Stakeholder identification

Internal External
Stakeholders Stakeholders
Investors Customers
Board members Shareholders
Employees Suppliers
Local residents
Works Council
NGOs
Providers of capital
Environmental
organisations

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II.2. Stakeholder analysis

Stakeholders interest and their influence are examined conscientiously in both
internal and external stakeholders on the table 2 below.

Table 2 Stakeholder analysis

Stakeholder Interest/ Influence

Investors - Strategic plan
- Innovative models
- Clear risk treatment if happen
Board members - All day operations
Internal

- Achieve sustainable energy system

- Operate project based on WHS
- Employee motivation
Employees - Work Health and Safety Regulation
- Training
- Collaboration
- On time payment
Customers - Safety and sustainable energy
benefit
- Customer service
- Infrastructure validation
Shareholder - Investment decisions
- Social safety
- System reliability
Suppliers - Meet project demands relating
External

Local residents
Works Council
Providers of capital
Environmental
organisations/NGOs
materials
- Energy emissions
- Safety regulations
- Appropriate alignment
- Return of investment
- Large scale strategy of project
- Profit stability and growth
- Innovation in sustainable energy
- Biodiversity
- CO2 emissions compensation
- Legislation (biomass)

As the following sequence, a power/interest grid classifies these stakeholders

regarding its different levels they basis on the project. The figure 4 illustrates
four primary categories.

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High power, high interest group who makes the greatest efforts during the
project taking place. They are fully engagement and high responsibilities.
In particular, they ensure information exchange correctly and meticulously
to others by holding regular meetings, or formal communications.
High power, less interest part normally has face-to-face meeting. It is
essential because of relationship maintenance between stakeholders. In
addition, formal financial performance reports are keep updating the
project status.
Low power, high interest people frequently communicate by social media
and email. The information will be adequate and on time every couple of
days.
Low power, less interest region includes the least communication, meeting
will take place if something relates to specific project.

Figure 4 Power/ Interest grid

III. Establishing the context

Applying AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009 standard, the external and internal context is
established for managing risk events. Also, they will be analysed in minor details
to tackle with the specific risk management phrase.

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III.1. Internal context

The first internal parameter is investors who take responsible for the financial
issue in decentralised control power systems. The investment will keep continue
during the project life to ensure sustainable energy supplying efficiently. The
construction combines a numerous of power plants, such as wind turbines,
cogeneration plants and solar panel in terms of large scale.

Next, the Board has to present a strategic plan for sustainable energy to move
from centralised power system to decentralised control power, which requires
speeding up the process. The new control system transforms into energy
distribution grids in both local and national scale. For example, biomass or biogas
by heat productions cogeneration plants will be assembled as national network.
Besides operating the project, one of board department has to take care of
business part. Together with sustainable energy mission, they should meet
customers expectations regarding local and international development (figure
5). Furthermore, the board of management also put attention on employee
development.

Figure 5 Customer satisfaction mission

Finally, employee works on particular related to their experts. They commit with
the project aim by working effectively and flexibly in team. They will obtain
alignment and motivation from managers to contribute better to project strategy.

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Last but not least, during their work, they must follow Work Health and Safe
regulation.

III.2. External context

Decentralised control power stations is an innovation energy technology,

therefore, the external context relevant to such system have influenced to
external stakeholders.

The system has to prove sustainability of renewable energy to customers to

promote them choosing clean power as compared to stained old centralised
model. These energy genres are not only safety but also CO2 emission
compensations.

As shareholder perspectives, the system supports to indicate the advantages of

financial performance when they decide the sustainable production. Whenever
they can recognise the impact of the project aim on society, these municipalities
willing to invest to such innovative system to serve common interest.

On the other hand, councils have an indispensable role in the project who take
part in controlling transform the awareness of residents in using the reliable
power systems. Moreover, the new local buildings are obliged to integrate
decentralised energy technology.

To operating the project successfully, it is strict in deciding suppliers who satisfy

price, service and also quality. As a result, the entire supply chain can empower
the sustainability of the system life. The suppliers might commit the agreements
in Supplier Code of Conduct which adapt sustainable criteria, such as accounting
for the life cycle of the product, recycling matters, fewer environment effects, or
forbidding child labour.

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In contrast with others in safety concern, local residents concentrate on safety

laws and regulations. They will be provided with the relationship between them
and project sustainability. The similarity to them, NGOs matter to the
environment-friendly issue, for instance, how the improvement of carbon
emission reduces or the innovations in renewable energy technology.

Lastly, capital providers are important investors who survive the project if the
unbundling issue happens. They play the main role in financial performance, in
particular, stabilising and growing the profit, or more serious, returning on
investments or risk of investment. Besides that, they also contribute to the
innovation of system to offer a large-scale strategy.

III.3. The context of the risk management process

In this report, managing risk covers political, economic, social and technical risks
regarding decentralised energy power implementation. The purpose of this study
is to finalise relevant risks and their treatment, then executing monitor plans to
achieve the goals. The risk management framework must approach the
following aims:

Ensure adequate capital and operating cost to alternate renewable energy

instead of carbon
Ensure electricity suppliers purchasing surplus electricity at a reasonable
price
Recognise feedstock costs in long term to select primarily decentralised
energy solutions
Adjust price fluctuation of coal and carbon which affect the increase of
carbon emissions
Be aware of possible events related to hazardous situations
Ensure a low risk working environments for employee, customers and
citizens.

III.4. Risk criteria

The mentioned scope of the project is regarding political, economic, social and
technical factors of shifting to alternative energy sources. Risk criteria is
established particular policies for managing risks and determined in advance
before executing projects and assessed permanently throughout project life.

These risk criteria below are initiated as following:

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The variety of consequences and measurement methods as regard to

transition from centralised energy to decentralised counterpart.
The specified approach for likelihood of risks.
Stakeholders perceptions.
Short term and long term risk impact.
The different levels of risks to category tolerable group.
Affordable for risk treatment cost.

The aims of this process are to:

Support the board of management and investor in making decisions.

Reflect on various dilemmas and their influences on reaching the target.
Conform to conduct and regulations to mitigate top risks.
Keep track of the risks related to consolidation and aggregation.
Effectively communicate with stakeholders.

IV. Risk assessment

The process bases on risk criteria to centre its identification, analysis and
evaluation following AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009.

IV.1. Risk identification

Because the project risks are involved various uncertain events which may
happen positive or adverse effect, it is crucial to identify and qualify its
objectives beforehand. That will be illustrated in Risk Register (Refer to Appendix
B).

The proposed approaches to detect risks are brainstorming and checklist.

Brainstorming method integrates stakeholders perspectives in order to bring
about clarity ideas of potential risks. While checklist technique asserts an
ordinary directory of risks and their consultants (Refer to Appendix A). The
outcome of both methods includes the comprehensive category of possible risks
which have impacts on political, economic, social and technical matters of the
project.

Table 3 Potential risks

Level Level 2 Level 3 Potential Risks

1
Politic Country Government Limit profit if energy transition take
al policy into account
Legal Remedy Court enforcement
Regulatory Authorities Lack of future law if unbundling
occurs

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Econo Global Low carbon Negative effect on electricity price

mic changes price
Lower energy Steady income of electricity
prices production assets
Financial Interest Funds and debt
Currency Rate fluctuation
Credit Credit rating method change
Price Labour Unemployment
Volume Disruptive Subsidy regimes
technologies
Social Safety Employee Lost safety awareness, injury
Third parties Under construction affect neighbour
Process Poisonous carbon monoxide
Environmen Waste The construction and operation
t waste
Labour Skills Lack of training and relevant
professional skills
Public Criminality Corruption
Acceptance Disagreement from council or NGOs
Techni Project Schedule Delay starting time
Supply chain Delay in raw material supply
cal
Transformation Change in regulations
Security Cyber security / ICT in financial
damage
Service Defects Interrupt of energy supply
factor
Reliability Failure systems

IV.2. Risk analysis

The forward step is to analyses the probabilities of risk events and relevant
consequences. The assist tool can identify risk levels based on rating scale.

A simple assessment tool is named qualitative risk assessment matrix combining

a number different of rating of likelihood and consequence. Both elements value
multiply each other to generate an overall risk level which measures the risk
severity. According to SA/SNZ HB89, likelihood and consequences have a 5-scale
rating, that presents failures and the outcome of this failure, respectively. As a
result, risk register is examined following the matrix in order to bring out risk
rating for relevant event.

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Table 4 Likelihood/ Consequences

Likelihood
Certain M H H E E
5 5 10 15 20 20
Likely M M H H E
4 4 8 12 16 20
Possibl L M M H H
e 3 6 9 12 15
3
Unlikel L M M M H
y 2 4 6 8 10
2
Rare L L L M M
1 1 2 3 4 5
Insignific Minor Moderat Major Catastrop Consequenc
ant 2 e 4 hic es
1 3 5

Table 5 describes briefly the rating of likelihood, consequences and risk level.

Table 5 Brief description

Element Description
Likelihood
Rare 1 The minimum ability of event occurs
Unlikely 2 The event might happen but limited times
Possible 3 The possibility of occurrence
Likely 4 The event potentially occurs
Certain 5 The event definitely happens
Consequences
Insignificant 1 Imperceptible impact
Minor 2 Less effort to solve
Moderate 3 Pay attention to tackle the outcome
Major 4 Critical cons, the project needs a short recovery interval

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Catastrophic 5 May cause the entire project failure

Risk level
1-3 L - A slight impact on project, can be ignored
- Small efforts of individual to solve problem
4-9 M - An intermediate outcome
- Provide instant control to cure risks
10-20 H - One or more parts of project are influences
- The board of management must join in adaptive
plans
20-25 E - Severity the entire project
- All stakeholders must take responsible for action
plan in both short term and long term

Following investigating all relevant possible risks, using a powerful tool is FMEA
in preliminary control these risks. The obtained probability and consequence of
single risk from risk matrix are recorded together with overall risk rating.
Afterward, the offered actions for regard risk analysis take into account reducing
such overall rating when these actions have been taken. That is one of the
strengths of this tool. The entire of representation of the project using FMEA can
be found in Appendix C.

Existing controls and their effectiveness

Control plans need to be executed on time for moderate risk level and immediate
for high probability and high consequences. The primary controls and their
outcomes are debated between Investors and the Board of management, and
also, be often reviewed by other stakeholders, such as employee, shareholders
or council.

Because of a numerous of human factors involved in operating process, it is

consideration that human failure is a vital part in risk control. An employee
motivation strategy must be determined by management in order to provide a
professional training program, and also create a safety working environment as
low risk as they can.

IV.3. Risk evaluation

After fulfilling risk identification and its analysis, an evaluation approach is
initiated to generate their treatment and appropriate treatment levels. In this
study, the ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) principle is applied for this
aim.

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Figure 6 ALARP principle

The method permits the management determining where further treatment

should be taken place by focusing on beneficial if treatment is applied in different
risks. The risk priority number follows descending indicator from top to bottom.
The middle and upper regions are noticeable due to unacceptability; treatment
measurements, therefore, need to be implemented to mitigate risks. However,
the last area belongs to tolerable attributes, can be ignored somehow.

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V. Risk treatment
AS/ NZS ISO 31000: 2009 mentions different options in treating risks:

Omit risk events

Adjust the probability of occurrence or its consequence
Shift or save the risk

Those treatments are not always appropriate for all kinds of risks in the form of
practical ability or low-cost condition. The figure 7 below presents a full
treatment process to estimate relevant treatment and also provide residual
chosen risks.

Figure 7 Risk treatment process

Risk treatment options

The treating risks modified from AS/ NZS 4360 can identify relevant treatment by
pointing out the evaluation options regarding satisfaction and cost effectiveness.
The treatment plan is then implemented and developed to resolve risk. However,
residual risk must be understood clearly before executing that plan.

VI. Monitoring and review

Lastly, monitoring and review stage is vital in the risk management plan. It is
highly recommended all parties should aware new risk events during under

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construction phrase due to the unsteady risk status. Hence, the management
ought to keep track of periodic monitoring plan for risk occurrence.

Table 6 Periodic monitoring plan

Activities Frequency
Checklists Every shift
Inspection Daily
Risk register Weekly
Meetings Fortnight/ Instant if high risk
happens
Risk management Daily
process
Risk management plan Annual
Internal audits Monthly
External audits Twice a year

The table 7 shows the different responsibilities of individuals involved in the

project for monitoring and review step.

Table 7 Individuals' responsibilities in monitoring and review

Who Responsibilities
All individuals - Report observed risks whenever realise
- Obey conduct and regulations to avoid/ reduce
risk events
- A part in monitoring strategy
The Board of - Always aware every member from risks
- Provide effective training in managing and
Management
treating risks
- Keep update and inform risk date
- Priorities treatment for emergent risk
Investors - Provide the greatest opportunities for risk
treatment regarding resource allocation
- Provide the greatest health and safety
environment for all members.

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REFERENCE

Livingstone, K. & Tindale, S. 2005, Decentralising power: An energy

revolution for the 21st century, Green Peace, London
Michelez, J., Lyon, D., & Mera, E. 2010, Risk quantification and risk
management in renewable energy projects, Renewable Energy
Technology Deployment, IEA RETD.
NSW Department of State and Regional Development 2005, Risk
Management Guide for Small Business, Global Risk Alliance Pty Ltd and
NSW Department of State and Regional Development, Sydney, NSW
Standard Australia 2009, Risk management Principles and guidelines,
AS/ NZS ISO 3100: 2009, Standard Australia, Sydney.
Standard Australia 2013, Risk management Guidelines on risk
assessment techniques, SA/ SNZ HB 89: 2013, Standard Australia, Sydney.

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APPENDICES
Appendix A: Risk Identification Checklist

Checklist
Project:
Date:
Location
# Questions Yes/N Action (if
o No)
1 Are staff trained for evacuation plan?
2 Do staff follow safety induction at workplace?
3 Are staff wearing Personal Protective Equipment?
4 Did supervisor pay off last order to suppliers?
5 Have manager receive agreement from onshore
resident before taking place project?
6 Are the security system improved maximising?
7 Are the construction and operation waste managed in
appropriate way?
8 Are the project work kept updating?
9 Have engineer tested every sub system in unit scale?

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Appendix B: Risk Register

Risk register
Project:
Location:
# Risk Possible events Root of cause Consequences Rating Risk
Likeliho Consequence
level
od s
1 Government Limit profit if energy Energy Low carbon price 3 2 6
policy transition take into account transition Energy price drop
2 Remedy Court enforcement Renewable Capital intensive 3 1 3
energy takes development
long time
3 Authorities Lack of future law if Tariffs regulation Effect on 3 4 12
unbundling occurs mitigation plan
4 Low carbon Negative effect on CO2 emission Negative impact 3 2 6
price electricity price compensation on electricity
price
5 Lower energy Steady income of Focus on Income drop 4 3 12
prices electricity production sustainable
assets electricity assets
6 Interest Funds and debt 2 2 4
7 Currency Rate fluctuation Economic Petty cash 4 2 8
growth
8 Credit Credit rating method From agency Run negative 3 3 9
change adjustment

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9 Labour Unemployment Management Lack of staff 4 3 12

responsibilities
1 Disruptive Subsidy regimes Government Delay the 2 5 10
0 technologies policy implementation
of project
1 Employee Lost safety awareness, Disobey WHS Death at work 4 5 20
1 injury regulations
1 Third parties Under construction affect Manager lack Residents 3 3 9
2 neighbour experience dissatisfy
1 Process Poisonous carbon Lack of manager Effect on 4 5 20
3 monoxide responsibilities environment
1 Waste The construction and Lack of Local resident 3 4 12
4 operation waste managing outcry
experience
1 Skills Lack of training and Unmotivated Ineffectively 3 3 9
5 relevant professional skills staff working
Delay process
1 Criminality Corruption Bureaucracy Shortage running 3 4 12
6 budget
1 Acceptance Disagreement from council Present Project delay in 3 4 12
7 or NGOs misinformation particular region
1 Schedule Delay starting time Lack of training Break down 3 3 9
8 and project plan
development
1 Supply chain Delay in raw material Payment Project delay 2 4 8
9 supply inappropriate

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time
2 Transformation Change in regulations 2 2 4
0
2 Security Cyber security / ICT in System Loss of money 3 4 12
1 financial damage malfunction
Lack of security
2 Defects Interrupt of energy supply Lack of Insufficient 4 4 16
2 electricity grids energy usage
2 Reliability Failure systems Careless in Loss of 2 4 8
3 management investment and
customers

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Appendix C: FMEA Analysis

Ite Potential Potential Potential Current Action plans

SEV

OCC

DET

RPN

SEV
OCC
DET

RPN
on
Reducti
m Failure Failure Causes Controls
Modes Effects

1 Government Limit profit if 3 Energy 7 None 9 18 Board 3 7 4 84 45

policy energy transition 9
transition
take into
account
5 Lower Steady 2 Focus on 6 Implement 6 72 Controlled 3 6 2 36 50
energy income of sustainable effective supervision
prices electricity electricity renewable Quality control
production assets energy
assets
11 Employee Lost safety 9 Disobey WHS 7 Safety 4 25 Safety 9 7 2 12 33
awareness, regulations induction 2 induction 6
injury Follow WHS
No work
overtime
13 Process Poisonous 8 Lack of 6 Safety 3 14 Work 8 6 2 96 67
carbon manager induction 4 insurance
monoxide responsibiliti Manager Safety

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es training induction
17 Acceptance Disagreemen 6 Present 5 Public 2 60 Media PR 6 5 1 30 50
t from misinformati relationships
council or on
NGOs
19 Supply chain Delay in raw 4 Payment 4 Pay on time 3 48 Financial 4 4 2 32 67
material inappropriat officer
supply e time
21 Security Cyber 6 System 5 Improve 5 15 IT technicians 6 5 2 60 40
security / ICT malfunction security 0
in financial Lack of system
damage security

Severity Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Level None Very Minor Very low Low Moderat High Very Extreme Very
minor e high extreme

Occurren Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Level Remote Remote Low (I) Low (II) Low (III) Moderat Moderat High (I) High (II) Very
ce
(I) (II) e (I) e (II) high

Detectabi Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Level Almost Very High Moderat Moderat Low Very low Remote Very Uncertai
lity
certain high ely high e remote n

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