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com – Intelligent Investments

Friday, July 23, 2010

Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to our last Daily FX Comment of this
week. Surprisingly the concerns of the market over stress-test results of banks in Europe faded
away and the debt crisis seem to ease.

Anyways, we wish you a successful trading day and a nice weekend.

Market Review – Fundamental Perspective

Although Ben. S. Bernanke admitted, that the economic outlook continues to be unusually
uncertain, the USD strengthened versus the JPY to 87.12. This is largely owing to a report which
revealed, that sales of U.S. previously owned homes fell 5.1 percent in June. Economists had
predicted a drop of 9.9 percent. Furthermore speculations came up that Japan may weaken its
currency to aid economic growth. Japans Finance Minister officially said, that he wants to avoid
gains in yen which would have a negative effect on Japan’s export, the engine of the economy
recovery. Based on that, the yen decreased against all of its major counterparts.

In Europe a report illustrated, that manufacturing and services industry suddenly rose and the
debt crisis eased. In addition to that the market assumes that the results of stress test for 91
banks will not be such as negative as it has been forecasted. As a result of that European stocks
increased and the EUR won against the USD after it fell in the past three days. It gained 1.1
percent to 1.2891 and the EUR/JPY also rose from a two-week low to 112.06.

A policy report from the Bank of Canada revealed, that successive interest-rate increases will
still continue to take place in the future. This resulted in a rose of Canada’s currency by 1.3
percent against the USD at 1.0356. The CAD already gained 1.9 percent this week and
strengthened the most versus the USD in the past two weeks. The AUD rallied near to a two-
month high and was the second-best performer against the USD yesterday. The AUD/USD
already gained 6.4 percent in July and traded at 0.8943. The AUD/JPY rose 0.3 percent to
77.93. Based on speculations that the Central Bank of New Zealand is going to raise the interest
rate next week, the currency pair climbed against the USD and traded at 72.57.
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Daily Technical Analysis (In this section we provide chart analysis)

Our Focus Currencies for Today

GBP/NZD (4 Hour)

After the GBP/NZD succeeded to enter the fan the bears took control of it and dragged it below
its resistance level around 2.1126. If the pair may reach the resistance level again and could
cross the lower line of the fan we might see further gains.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hour)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

2.0739 2.1632

N/A 2.2026

N/A 2.1126
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EUR/GBP (4 Hour)

Since the end of June the currency pair has been trading in a bullish trend channel. We might
see further losses if the EUR/GBP fell out of the channel again and move down towards its
support level around 0.8373. The Stochastic indicator may support a bearish trend.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hour)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

0.8373 0.8455

0.8204 0.8537

0.8063 N/A
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USD/CAD (4 Hour)

The USD/CAD failed to cross the resistance level around 1.0516 (61.8) for the past 2 weeks and
dropped towards its support level around 1.0363 (23.6).The DMI seems to keep staying on a
relative low level and may assume that there is no trend-reversal. It remains to be seen if the
pair could remain above the 1.0363 (23.6) or continue its downward trend.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hour)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

1.0363 1.0469

N/A 1.0516

N/A 1.0588
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NZD/JPY (1 Hour)

Since the middle of July the EUR/GBP is trading in a bullish trend channel but failed to cross its
resistance level around 63.39. It dropped back and is trading near to its support level around
62.65. A break through this level and out of the channel could be a signal of a trend reversal.

Intraday Support & Resistance (1 Hour)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

62.65 63.39

62.09 63.95

61.32 N/A
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AUD/CHF (1 Hour)

The AUD/CHF tried to reach its monthly high again but rebounded at the resistance level around
0.9325. We might stay bullish if the pair clearly pass the middle line of the Fibonacci fan and
recross its resistance level.

Intraday Support & Resistance (1 Hour)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

0.9161 0.9325

0.9051 N/A

0.8947 N/A
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Daily Calendar & Key FX Events

Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last

23.07.2010 08:00 GE IFO-Business Climate 101.8

23.07.2010 08:30 UK Index of Services (3mth/3mth) 0.6%

23.07.2010 08:30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase 36709

23.07.2010 11:00 CA Consumer Price Index MoM 0.3%

23.07.2010 11:00 CA Consumer Price Index YoY 1.4%

23.07.2010 11:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core MoM 0.3%

23.07.2010 11:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core YoY 1.8%

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