C aud ales d e S equ ia en m ^3/seg

Analisis de sequia . Rio Chicama. Metodo de Gumbel

Muestra Total 30 Aos
6.00

5.00 Xi(1) =
0.190+2.179*EXP(0.52*Wi)
4.00 Xi(2) =
0.190+2.119*EXP(0.52*Wi)
3.00
Datos reales

2.00

1.00

0.00
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Periodo de Retorno Tr en Aos
Caudal.cal1Xi m^3/seg Caudal.Excel2Xi m^3/seg Xi (Medido ) m^3/seg
 FUNCION"tN" DEL TAMAO DE LA MUESTRA "N" Y PARAMETRO" L"
L
N (N Aos) 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
10 1.78 1.72 1.62 1.55 1.51 1.41 1.30 1.22 1.12 1.04 0.96
20 2.30 2.24 2.14 1.96 1.79 1.62 1.50 1.34 1.23 1.14 1.02
40 2.85 2.71 2.58 2.28 2.04 1.79 1.63 1.43 1.30 1.17 1.06
60 3.14 2.98 2.80 2.44 2.14 1.86 1.67 1.46 1.31 1.19 1.09
80 3.37 3.17 2.96 2.56 2.22 1.93 1.69 1.50 1.35 1.20 1.10
100 3.54 3.31 3.07 2.62 2.26 1.97 1.71 1.52 1.36 1.21 1.11

CALCULO EQUACIONES
VALORES "L" ECUACIONES ESTIMADAS 10 20 40 60 80 100
0.01 y = 0.7652ln(x) + 0.0155 1.78 2.31 2.84 3.15 3.37 3.54
0.05 y = 0.6883ln(x) + 0.1565 1.74 2.22 2.70 2.97 3.17 3.33
0.10 y = 0.6264ln(x) + 0.2245 1.67 2.10 2.54 2.79 2.97 3.11
0.20 y = 0.4636ln(x) + 0.530 1.60 1.92 2.24 2.43 2.56 2.66
0.30 y = 0.3273ln(x) + 0.7895 1.54 1.77 2.00 2.13 2.22 2.30
0.40 y = 0.2402ln(x) + 0.880 1.43 1.60 1.77 1.86 1.93 1.99
0.50 y = 0.1739ln(x) + 0.9438 1.34 1.46 1.59 1.66 1.71 1.74
0.60 y = 0.1275ln(x) + 0.9427 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.46 1.50 1.53
0.70 y = 0.1004ln(x) + 0.9089 1.14 1.21 1.28 1.32 1.35 1.37
0.80 y = 0.0684ln(x) + 0.9067 1.06 1.11 1.16 1.19 1.21 1.22
0.90 y = 0.0636ln(x) + 0.8218 0.97 1.01 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.11
1.00 y = 0.0366ln(x) + 0.822 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99

VALORES DEL PARAMETRO K=1/L

L K Yp/STDx L K
0.01 100.0 80.0 0.01 105.3
0.02 50.0 40.0 0.02 50.9
0.03 33.3 26.0 0.03 32.4
0.05 20.0 16.0 0.05 19.4
0.10 10.0 8.10 0.11 9.5
0.30 3.3 3.00 0.30 3.4
0.50 2.0 1.80 0.51 2.0
1.00 1.0 1.00 0.95 1.1
 VALORES DE "tN"
1.00 FIGURA 2:FUNCION "tN" DEL TAMAO DE LA MUESTRA "N" Y PARAMETRO "L"
4
0.90
0.94 3.5
0.96 3
0.97
2.5
0.98
0.99 2

1.5

0.5

0
1 10 100
NUMERO DE AOS DE REGISTRO "N
V A LO R E S D E L P A R A M E T R O "L "

0.01 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

FIG URA 3:VALORES DEL PARAMETRO K= 1/L

1 100
f(x)
f(x) =
= 1.0572077497
0.9458878827 x^1.0500163024
x^-1.0500163024
R = 0.9994287466

v
a
l
0.1 10 o
r
e
s

d
0.01 1 e
1 10 100
VALORES DE "Yp/STDx"
l

p
a
r
a
m
e
t
r
o

K
N" Y PARAMETRO "L"

100
"N

K=1/L
100

v
a
l
10 o
r
e
s

d
1 e
100
l

p
a
r
a
m
e
t
r
o

K
Caudales Minimos m^3/seg

Transito de Sequia Rio Chira.Periodo(Julio-Diciembre 2006-2009)

Estaciones de Aforo: Macacara y Miramar
20.00

18.00 Estacion n Qb Ecuacion de estimacion

Macacara 13 7.01
16.00 Qi=7.01+6.603*EXP(0.62*W)
Niramar 13 9.93 Qi=
14.00 9.93+4.38*SXP(0.87*W)
Miramar
12.00

10.00

8.00 Macacara

6.00 n ( meses de Registro)

Qi( Caudal promedio mensual)
Qb( Caudal Base m^3/s)
4.00

2.00

0.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
Tiempo de Retorno Meses
Calculados Calculados
 RIO CHIRA-SULLANA-PIURA
JIBITO ( m^3/seg)
Aos Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio
2005
2006
2007 13.58
2008 39.82
2009

MACACARA ( m^3/seg)
Aos Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio
2005
2006
2007 25.24 13.56 11.33 70.70 29.00 61.78 14.24
2008
2009 49.24 62.47

VARGAS MACHUCA ( m^3/seg)

Aos Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio
2005
2006
2007 27.52 17.74 14.26 53.60 38.57 63.87 21.61
2008 25.78 462.4 591.93 419.6 191.31 SD 65.94
2009 36.76 49.2

ARENAL ( m^3/seg)
Aos Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio
2005
2006
2007 24.42 13.02 10.37 49.02 28.73 46.7 35.63
2008 172.85 280.39 322.43 233.07 155.92 96.69 69.09
2009

MIRAMAR ( m^3/seg)
Aos Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio
2005
2006
2007 29.00 18.37 12.45 73.13 39.42 72.55 16.06
2008 28.76 11.32 11.36 71.87 38.00 SD 39.38
2009 52.12 50.07

Julio
2006
2007 13.58
2008 39.82
 2006
2007 25.24 13.56 11.33 70.70 29.00 61.78 14.24
2008
2009 49.24 62.47

2006
2007 27.52 17.74 14.26 53.60 38.57 63.87 21.61
2008 25.78 462.4 591.93 419.6 191.31 SD 65.94
2009 36.76 49.2

2006
2007 24.42 13.02 10.37 49.02 28.73 46.7 35.63
2008 172.85 280.39 322.43 233.07 155.92 96.69 69.09

2006
2007 29.00 18.37 12.45 73.13 39.42 72.55 16.06
2008 28.76 11.32 11.36 71.87 38.00 SD 39.38
2009 52.12 50.07

SEQUIA MACACARA

m Xi (Medido )P(Yi>yi )%P( Yi<=yi )%Tr (Meses Wi

) (Var.Red)Macacara
m^3/seg (1-P) % Medidos

1 19.33 7.14 92.86 1.1 0.9704 19.33

2 18.34 14.29 85.71 1.2 0.6657 18.34
3 16.78 21.43 78.57 1.3 0.4321 16.78
4 14.70 28.57 71.43 1.4 0.2254 14.70
5 14.24 35.71 64.29 1.6 0.0292 14.24
6 11.51 42.86 57.14 1.8 -0.1657 11.51
7 11.29 50.00 50.00 2.0 -0.3665 11.29
8 10.98 57.14 42.86 2.3 -0.5805 10.98
9 10.69 64.29 35.71 2.8 -0.8168 10.69
10 10.31 71.43 28.57 3.5 -1.0892 10.31
11 9.96 78.57 21.43 4.7 -1.4223 9.96
12 8.94 85.71 14.29 7.0 -1.8698 8.94
13 8.17 92.86 7.14 14.0 -2.6022 8.17

Calculado F.Gama.Inv.Excel
N 13 13 Macacara
Xp 12.71 50.00 T.Retorno Tr 1.582
STDx 3.62 27.82 Probabilid ( Yi <=y) 0.632
X1 (minimo) 8.17 P.Escala 1.030
TNp=(Xp-X1)/STDx 1.26 P.forma 12.344
L.est.GRAF.2( TNp,N)) 0.62 D.Gama.In (, , ) 13.610
E.est=X1-(Xp-X1)/(N^L-) 7.01
F.Gama (1+L) 0.8959 Yp/STDy 1.797 6.60
.est=((Xp-E)/F.G(1+L))+E 13.373 L 0.500
-E 6.603
Xi=E+(O-E)*EXP(L*Wi) Xi (1) 7.01+(13.61-7.01)*EXP(0.62*Wi 7.01+6.603*EXP(0.62*W)
Xi (2) 12.02+(20.422-12.02)*EXP(0.34 12.02+8.34*EXP(0.34*W)
Xi (3) 9.93+(14.319-9.3)*EXP(0.86*W) 9.93+4.387*EXP(0.87*W)
Xi (4) 6.79+(86.34-6.79)*EXP(0.86*W) 6.79+79.549*EXP(0.86*W)
 m Xi (Medido )P(Yi>yi )%P( Yi<=yi )%Tr (Meses Wi
) (Var.Red) Arenal
m^3/seg (1-P) % m^3/seg

1 183.39 8.33 91.67 1.1 0.9102 182.72

2 174.57 16.67 83.33 1.2 0.5832 139.09
3 125.62 25.00 75.00 1.3 0.3266 112.57
4 120.24 33.33 66.67 1.5 0.0940 93.14
5 86.12 41.67 58.33 1.7 -0.1330 77.62
6 69.02 50.00 50.00 2.0 -0.3665 64.55
7 46.46 58.33 41.67 2.4 -0.6180 53.15
8 35.63 66.67 33.33 3.0 -0.9027 42.92
9 18.26 75.00 25.00 4.0 -1.2459 33.53
10 17.30 83.33 16.67 6.0 -1.7020 24.68
11 16.25 91.67 8.33 12.0 -2.4417 16.07

Arenal Calculado F.Gama.Inv.Excel

N 11 11 Macacara
Xp 81.17 50.00 T.Retorno Tr 1.582
STDx 61.95 27.64 Probabilid ( Yi <=y) 0.632
X1 (minimo) 16.25 P.Escala 47.281
TNp=(Xp-X1)/STDx 1.05 P.forma 1.717
L.est.GRAF.2( TNp,N) 0.86 D.Gama.In (, , ) 86.340
E.est=X1-(Xp-X1)/(N^ 6.79
F.Gama (1+L) 0.9487 Yp/STDy 1.809 79.55
.est=(Xp-E)/F.G(1+L 85.191 L 0.480
-E 78.400
6.79+(85.191-6.79)*EXP(0.86*W6.79+78.400*EXP(0.86*W)
6.79+(86.34-6.79)*EXP(0.86*W) 6.79+79.549*EXP(0.86*W)
 Agosto Setiem Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN
Presa Sullana
11.97 9.47 14.58 12.01 14.58 9.47
9.86 7.62 7.73 7.43 7.28 8.92 13.58 7.28
16.5

20 Km
Presa Sullana-Macacara 20 Km
Agosto Setiem Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

16.78 14.7 18.34 16.61 18.34 14.7

11.51 10.31 11.29 10.98 10.69 23.39 11.29 10.69
8.94 9.96 8.17 9.02 9.96 8.17 MACACARA
19.33

A ( m^3/seg) Macacara-Vatgas Machuca 20 Km 22 Km

Agosto Setiem Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

18.09 22.76 21.05 20.63 22.76 18.09

17.78 17.86 22.59 24.13 21.98 28.46 63.87 14.26
SD 18.2 17.27 16.61 15.19 182.42 591.93 15.19 VARGAS MACHUCA
28.93

Agosto Setiem Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

17.30 16.25 18.26 17.27 18.26 16.25

125.62 120.24 183.39 174.57 86.12 74.82 183.39 10.37 17 Km
46.46

Vargas Machuca-Miramar 17 Km
Agosto Setiem Octubr Novien Diciemb PROM MAX MIN

16.28 15.78 22.32 18.13 22.32 15.78

11.28 12.21 13.24 15.58 13.66 27.25 73.13 11.28 MIRAMAR
19.11 10.37 10.33 10.44 11.84
25.52 5.2 Km
Miramar -Mar 5.2 Km 591.33 7.28
MAR
P.Bombeo P.Bombeo
JIBITO MACAC VARGASARENA
Agosto Setiem Octubr Novien Diciemb
11.97 9.47 14.58 1 39.82 62.47 65.94 183.39
9.86 7.62 7.73 7.43 7.28 2 16.50 19.33 49.20 174.57
16.5 3 14.78 18.34 28.93 125.62
4 13.58 16.78 24.13 120.24
 16.78 14.7 18.34 5 11.97 14.70 22.76 86.12
11.51 10.31 11.29 10.98 10.69 6 9.86 14.24 22.59 69.02
8.94 9.96 8.17 7 9.47 11.51 21.98 46.46
19.33 8 7.73 11.29 21.26 35.63
9 7.62 10.98 21.05 18.26
18.09 22.76 21.05 10 7.43 10.69 18.20 17.30
17.78 17.86 22.59 24.13 21.98 11 7.28 10.31 18.09 16.25
SD 18.2 17.27 16.61 15.19 12 9.96 17.86
28.93 13 8.94 17.78
14 8.17 17.27
17.30 16.25 18.26 15 16.61
125.62 120.24 183.39 174.57 86.12 16 15.19
46.46 17

16.28 15.78 22.32

11.28 12.21 13.24 15.58 13.66
19.11 10.37 10.33 10.44 11.84
25.52

SEQUIA VARGAS MACHUCA

SEQUIA MIRAMAR
Macacara V.MachucaV.Machuca MiramarMiramar SEQUIA ARENAL
Calculados Medidos Calculados Medidos
Calculados Medidos
Calculados

19.06 24.13 23.76 19.11 19.00 183.39 192.19

16.99 22.76 22.59 16.28 17.17 174.57 148.96
15.64 22.59 21.77 16.06 16.01 125.62 122.76
14.60 21.98 21.10 15.78 15.14 120.24 103.63
13.73 21.26 20.50 15.58 14.42 86.12 88.39
12.97 21.05 19.95 13.66 13.80 69.02 75.63
12.27 18.20 19.43 13.24 13.25 46.46 64.55
11.62 18.09 18.90 12.21 12.74 35.63 54.69
10.99 17.86 18.37 11.84 12.26 18.26 45.74
10.37 17.78 17.80 11.28 11.80 17.30 37.47
9.74 17.27 17.18 10.44 11.35 16.25 29.69
9.08 16.61 16.45 10.37 10.89 22.22
8.33 15.19 15.48 10.33 10.40 14.83

do F.Gama.Inv.Excel
V.Machuca Miramar 13 13
1.582 1.582 19.60 13.55
0.632 0.632 2.80 2.80
0.401 0.577 15.19 10.33
48.840 23.473 1.57 1.15
20.422 14.319 0.34 0.86
12.02 9.93
8.40 4.39

8.399 4.387
03*EXP(0.62*W) Macacara
34*EXP(0.34*W) V.Machuca
87*EXP(0.87*W) Miramar
549*EXP(0.86*W) Arenal
do F.Gama.Inv.Excel

400*EXP(0.86*W)
549*EXP(0.86*W)
 MACACARA-MIRAMAR
39.00 Km

P.Bombeo
MIRAMAR

50.07
39.38
25.52
22.32
 19.11
16.28
16.06
15.78
15.58
13.66
13.24
12.21
11.84
11.28
10.44
10.37
10.33

Calculados
 Analisis de Sequias del Rio Chicama . Para 30 Aos de Registro. Estacion El Salinar
Metodo de analisis de Sequias Gumbel

Aos m Xi (Medido ) P(Yi>yi )% P( Yi<=yi )% Tr ( Aos ) Wi (Var.Red) Caudal.cal1XiCaudal.Excel2Xi

m^3/seg (1-P) % m^3/seg m^3/seg
1 5.02 3.23 96.77 1.0 1.2337 4.33 4.21
2 3.88 6.45 93.55 1.1 1.0083 3.87 3.77
3 3.25 9.68 90.32 1.1 0.8482 3.58 3.48
4 3.23 12.90 87.10 1.1 0.7167 3.35 3.27
5 3.20 16.13 83.87 1.2 0.6013 3.17 3.09
6 3.17 19.35 80.65 1.2 0.4961 3.01 2.93
7 3.08 22.58 77.42 1.3 0.3975 2.87 2.80
8 2.98 25.81 74.19 1.3 0.3035 2.74 2.67
9 2.80 29.03 70.97 1.4 0.2125 2.62 2.56
10 2.69 32.26 67.74 1.5 0.1235 2.51 2.45
11 2.38 35.48 64.52 1.6 0.0355 2.41 2.35
12 2.36 38.71 61.29 1.6 -0.0523 2.31 2.25
13 2.36 41.94 58.06 1.7 -0.1404 2.22 2.16
14 2.09 45.16 54.84 1.8 -0.2295 2.12 2.07
15 1.97 48.39 51.61 1.9 -0.3203 2.03 1.98
16 1.96 51.61 48.39 2.1 -0.4134 1.95 1.90
17 1.96 54.84 45.16 2.2 -0.5095 1.86 1.82
18 1.82 58.06 41.94 2.4 -0.6095 1.78 1.73
19 1.56 61.29 38.71 2.6 -0.7143 1.69 1.65
20 1.37 64.52 35.48 2.8 -0.8250 1.61 1.57
21 1.37 67.74 32.26 3.1 -0.9430 1.52 1.49
22 1.34 70.97 29.03 3.4 -1.0702 1.44 1.40
23 1.19 74.19 25.81 3.9 -1.2090 1.35 1.32
24 1.19 77.42 22.58 4.4 -1.3628 1.26 1.23
25 1.11 80.65 19.35 5.2 -1.5366 1.17 1.14
26 1.06 83.87 16.13 6.2 -1.7379 1.07 1.05
27 1.00 87.10 12.90 7.8 -1.9794 0.97 0.95
28 1.00 90.32 9.68 10.3 -2.2849 0.85 0.84
29 0.77 93.55 6.45 15.5 -2.7077 0.72 0.71
30 0.52 96.77 3.23 31.0 -3.4176 0.56 0.55
N 30 30.0 Calculado con F.Gama.Inv.Excel
Xp 2.123 50.0 1.761
STDx 1.049 28.4 T.Retorno Tr 1.58198 0.500
X1 (minimo) 0.52 Probabilidad ( Yi <=y) 0.63212
TNp=(Xp-X1)/STDx 1.53 P.Escala 0.518
L.est.GRAF.2( TNp,N)) 0.52 P.forma 4.097
E.est=X1-(Xp-X1)/(N^L-) 0.190 D.Gama.Inv (, , ) 2.309
F.Gama (1+L) 0.887
.est=)(Xp-E)/F.G(1+L))+E 2.369
W=LN(-LN(Pi))
Xi=E+(O-E)*EXP(L*Wi) Xi (1) 0.190+(2.369-0.190)*EXP(0.52*Wi) 2.178 0.19+2.179*EXP(0.52*W)
Xi (2) 0.190+(2.309-0.190)*EXP(0.52*W) 2.119 0.19+2.119*EXP(0.52*W)

Caudales de Sequia para Periodos de retorno Tr y Prob (Yi<=y) %

Periodo.RetornoProbabilidad Pro (Yi <=y) Variable red. Caudal Sequia ( m^3/seg )

Aos Pi Yi<=y)% P( Yi>=y)% Wi Xi ( 1 ) Xi ( 2 )

1.01 99.01 0.990 1.53 5.02 4.88

2.0 50.00 50.00 -0.37 1.99 1.94
5.0 20.00 80.00 -1.50 1.19 1.16
10.0 10.00 90.00 -2.25 0.87 0.85
25.0 4.00 96.00 -3.20 0.60 0.59
50.0 2.00 98.00 -3.90 0.48 0.47
100.0 1.00 99.00 -4.60 0.39 0.38