The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report

Summary.

The „Wind power development in

Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary

Polish Wind Energy Association

 The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary.

Introduction

Wind power is a dynamically developing renewables sector. Recently observed

significant increase in the interest in wind power in Poland requires preparation
of a detailed proposal of a sectoral development programme, taking account
of the entire renewables sector.

Polish Wind Energy Association commissioned the “Wind power development

in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report, developed by the Institute for Renewable
Energy. PWEA presents an actual strategy and a thoroughly analysed solutions
package which in the PWEA’s opinion may ensure a significant increase
in installed wind capacity in our country.

This document summarises the most important conclusions from the analyses.
Full version of the report may be received after an inquiry at biuro@psew.pl

I hope that the report will be interesting to you, and that the results presented
in the document will help to understand the importance role wind power has to play
on the RES market in Poland. I hope that the report will be a valuable source
of information, used as an input to develop the renewables sector in our country.

Szczecin, January 2010

Jarosław Mroczek
PWEA President

Polish Wind Energy Association

 The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary.

Executive summary

The purpose of this document is to present the vision of wind power development
in the context of other electricity sources. The report takes account
of the requirements laid down in Directive 2009/28/EC and the principles
for the development of a National Renewable Energy Action Plan laid down
in the Decision of the European Commission dated 30 June 2009. The National
Action Plan requires detailed specification of renewables development path until
2020 for each of the energy sector markets (electricity, heat, transport fuels)
and each renewable energy source. The analysis complies with those
requirements. It focuses on presenting the role of wind power in the context of
other renewable energy sources, in particular those used to produce electricity.

The first part of the document presents the current status and development
directions of wind power on the electricity market and its crucial role on the “green”
energy market. It presents its technical and economic parameters and important
environmental features in the context of other renewable technologies having
significant importance for Poland. Furthermore, it classifies and assesses wind
resources in Poland and emphasises their economic importance in our country.

One of analysed aspects was the unit investment cost of different RES electricity
production technologies. Conclusions from this part of the study are presented on
the figure below. Wind power is the most advantageous of all technologies.

Polish Wind Energy Association

 The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary.

Unit investment costs in €2005/kW for different electricity production technologies.

2900 5080

2020 3220

2960 5790

1400 2000

1000 1370

1750 2750

4100 6900

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Biomass Biogas agricultural Wind PV

small scale onshore

Biomass Biogas waste Wind

large scale offshore

Source: European Commission; EC BREC Institute for Renewable Energy’s own work.

The second part of the report presents a scenario for wind power development until
2050 together with a detailed analysis for the period up to 2020.
The scenario is based on MESAP (Modular Energy System Analysis & Planning)
computer model.

The scenario predicts very dynamic growth of installed capacity in the wind power
sector, amounting to almost 13 GWe in 2020. The figure comprises of almost
11 GWe in onshore wind farms, 1.5 GW in offshore wind farms and 600 MW
in small wind turbines. In accordance with the scenario, the share of wind power in
electricity production will rapidly increase to 24% in 2020 and almost 45% in 2030.

Polish Wind Energy Association

 The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary.

The figure below presents the dynamics of total installed capacity in the wind power
sector in the 2010-2020 period, both onshore and offshore.

The dynamics of total installed capacity in the wind power sector in the
2010-2020 period, both onshore and offshore.

[MW]

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Wind 920 1404 2303 3202 4101 5000 6561 8098 9060 10008 10893
Offshore Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500 1000 1500
Domestic Wind
Turbines 1 5 10 70 130 190 250 310 369 429 600

Source: The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report

Polish Wind Energy Association

 The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary.

Further part of the report contains an analysis of technical and economic

determinants of implementation of the above scenario. Furthermore, various
economic benefits stemming from its implementation are quantified.

For example, in accordance with the scenario presented above, in 2020

the number of jobs in the wind power sector will increase to approximately
66 thousand (cf. graph below).

Cumulated jobs in the Polish wind power sector in the 2010-2020 period.

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
Year 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

WTGs manufacturing-direct 400 888 1883 2937 4951 6965 11990 16941 20137 21795 23507

WTGs manufacturing-indirect 100 393 990 1622 2831 4039 7054 10025 11942 12937 13964

Installation 102 395 1118 2077 3228 4378 6324 8240 9762 11269 12825

O&M 304 465 763 1080 1396 1713 2248 2775 3277 3774 4288
Others (IPP, grid operators, RTD, 1114 1359 1875 2613 3639 4665 6886 9074 9941 10800 11687
finance, consultancy)

Total 2020 3500 6628 10329 16044 21760 34502 47054 55059 60576 66271

Source: EC BREC Institute’s for Renewable Energy own work.

The last chapter of the report presents modifications to the support scheme in force,
taking account of the continuity and stability of the support scheme, cost
optimisation and more equal allocation of burden among the investors, grid utilities,
self-governments and energy consumers. The need to include the broadest group
of participants of the Polish wind energy market and to acquire broader public
support in the breakthrough period was also included.

Polish Wind Energy Association

 The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary.

Primary conclusions:

In 2020 wind turbines will be the least expensive renewable electricity source
– a technology with energy production costs comparable to operating nuclear
power plants.

Market development forecasts for the wind power sector expect installation
of approximately 13 GWe in 2020, including 11 GWe in onshore wind farms, 1.5 GW
in offshore wind farms and 600 MW in small wind turbines.

The share of wind power in electricity production will increase rapidly to 17%
in 2020 and almost 29% in 2030.

Wind power is one of the least expensive technological options to reduce CO2
emissions. In accordance with the scenario, atmospheric CO2 emissions reduction
caused by wind power will amount to 33 million tonnes in 2020 with further potential
to increase to 65 million tonnes in 2030.

Employment in the wind power sector is forecasted to increase from 2000 full job
equivalents in 2008 to 66 thousand in 2020.

Wind power development will boost local business activity. In 2020 the commune
budgets may receive as much as 212 million PLN/year (approximately 2% of all
own revenues of rural communes; up to 17% in communes with advantageous wind
resources).

Revenues of lessors of wind farm sites (farmers) will amount to more than 100
million PLN/year in 2020.

Wind power will significantly contribute to the implementation of Directive

2009/28/EC in the 2020 perspective. Given the 21% share of green energy in final
energy consumption in Poland in 2020 forecasted in the report, wind power would
contribute to 14.5% of all RES energy.

The share of wind power in green electricity consumption may increase from
the current 15% to more than 62% in 2020, whereas its share in gross final energy
consumption may reach 3.8%.

Polish Wind Energy Association

 The „Wind power development in Poland by 2020 – a vision” report
Summary.

Polish Wind Energy Association established in 1999 (as Vis Venti Association
for Supporting Wind Energy) is a non-governmental organisation supporting and
promoting development of renewable energy sources, in particular wind power,
in Poland. PWEA goals include improving of existing and developing new legal
provisions and increasing political and social awareness of wind power as well
as systematic increase in the use of wind energy as a clean source of electricity.

PWEA members include the leading companies acting on the wind power
market in Poland: developers, investors, turbine and component manufacturers,
energy traders, service providers, consultants – both from Poland and abroad.

Currently PWEA has more than 80 members.

Media contacts:
Ewa Kurdyła – acting Director
tel. +48 91 486 25 35
fax: +48 91 486 25 38
e-mail:biuro@psew.pl

Polish Wind Energy Association

Al. Wojska Polskiego 154, 71-324 Szczecin, Poland

phone +48 91/48-62-530, fax. +48 91/48-62-538

e-mail: biuro@psew.pl

Polish Wind Energy Association