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How You Can

Identify Turning Points


Using Fibonacci
Part 2

Wayne Gorman
By

Copyright 2008 Elliott Wave International


EWI eBook

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci


Part 2: How To Use Fibonacci Relationships To Set
Trading Strategy

By Wayne Gorman, Elliott Wave International

Chapter 1 - Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa


Using cocoas price chart to show how to find turning points with detailed Fibonacci retracement
analysis

Chapter 2 - Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation


A review of Starbucks Fibonacci relationships and turning points

Chapter 3 - Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange


Reviewing the Euro/USD price chart for Fibonacci relationships and turning points

Chapter 4 - Questions and Answers


A few questions from the Fibonacci webinar participants

Introduction:
Welcome to the second part of Elliott Wave Internationals eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points
Using Fibonacci, which discusses how to use Fibonacci relationships to set trading strategy. In this course,
we will cover three different trading scenarios. The first will be in cocoa futures, then we will look at Starbucks
Corporation, and finally we will discuss the Euro against the U.S. Dollar in the foreign exchange market.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 1
Chapter 1: Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Identifying Structure
Note: The Cocoa analysis beginning with Figure 1 starts on Slide 4 of Wayne Gormans Online Trading
Course, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2.
Figure 1
Lets start our detailed Fibonacci analysis
with a situation in cocoa. This is a daily
continuation chart of the cocoa futures
contract traded on the New York Board
of Trade. We are going to start trading
at the end of the graph on the right. That
is May 24, 2001. We are going to put
our first trade on, right at the opening of
this market. Before we start trading, we
should put some wave labels on here.
Figure 2
We are starting right from the major low
at the left of the graph. That major low
occurred on December 12, 2000, and is
674. We can count an impulse wave from
that low; there are waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and
5 in red for the Intermediate wave (1).
Now, we are in wave (2) to the downside.
We see a five-wave impulse wave: 6,
7, 8, 9 and 0 for wave A; then there
is another corrective structure a, b
and c for wave B.
So, what do we have here? We have five
waves down. The B wave in red is an
expanded flat, because wave b goes
beyond the start of a, and wave c
goes beyond the end of a. We basically
have a 5-3 structure, so far. What does
that sound like to you? A zigzag, right?
Zigzags are 5-3-5. We want to determine
how far it has to go to the downside. To
be sure, we are going to check a few
things, because it may not be totally clear
that the B wave is over. The a wave is
a 3. The b is a 3. The c wave can be
counted as an ending diagonal with waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Therefore, we will be looking to go short on May
24, 2001.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 2
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Fibonacci Retracement Analysis


Figure 3
Before we do that, lets get our bearings and see how far we have come down. I am doing a Fibonacci retrace-
ment analysis using this table. I am going from the low of 674 up to the high of 1202 and seeing how much
we have retraced so far. Look at
the end of wave A in red. Wave
A almost makes a 50 percent re-
tracement. The b wave within
wave B goes a little bit lower.
The A wave comes in at 949,
and the b wave is at 945, a few
ticks lower. So, we have done
50 percent, which is certainly
viable. But what do we know
about second waves? Second
waves make deep retracements.
Therefore, we may want to look
for something like 876, which
is the .618 retracement of wave
(1). We do have room to come
down if this is, in fact, going
to be a 5-3-5 zigzag. We could
come down to 876. We may
even come down to 787. We
have to analyze it further, but,
for now, we will keep this 876
in mind, in terms of setting price
targets.
What about at the end of the
graph, though? Can we be sure
that the wave or all of wave B is
over? We do not know.
Figure 4
Here, I am looking at how far
wave B has traveled In terms of
retracing wave A. Look at the
second red dotted line down.
We see that wave c or wave B
basically has completed a .618
retracement of wave A. That im-
mediately tells us that there is a
good chance that wave c has
finished (which means wave B

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 3
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

has finished), and we are going to be heading to the downside. Could it go further? Maybe we did not count
wave c correctly. That is possible, but we have some proof here that wave B has most likely ended. There is
a bit of a risk here. What happens after the termination of an ending diagonal? A swift major reversal occurs.
So, we are not going to have much time to decide. We have to be careful if we say, Well, lets wait a few days
and see what happens. We may miss a big move, and we do have that .618 retracement.

Fibonacci Relationships
Figure 5
We can also look at the length
of wave c relative to wave a
from a Fibonacci perspective.
We start at point R, which is
the beginning of wave a. We
end at the letter S, which is the
end of wave a. Then we are
extending from point T, which
is the start of wave c or the
end of wave b. We are looking
at some Fibonacci multiples or
relationships.
We know that a common rela-
tionship is for wave c to equal
wave a; that is what the 1.000
means on the chart below 1084.
Equality with wave a comes in
at 1084, and we have gone be-
yond that. The top of wave c is
1109. We also know that within
an expanded flat, it is common
for wave C to equal 1.618 multiplied by the length of wave A. Well, if that were the case, we would be up at
1170. That is way beyond the .618 retracement. The .618 is at the second dotted line down on the previous
chart. 1170 is even beyond the .786 retracement. So, if c is going to be equal to 1.618 multiplied by the
length of wave a, then we are going to retrace most of wave (1). That is a deep retracement.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 4
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 6
At this stage and with all things
considered, if this is an end-
ing diagonal, we want to act
quickly. I think we have good
enough evidence to tell us that
wave c (and therefore wave B)
has probably ended, and we are
heading down in Minor wave C
of Intermediate wave (2). So, we
are going to go short.
The last tick on the right is the
open at 1076, and we do not
want to go past the top of wave
c. Wave c of B ends at 1109.
So, we are going to set our stop
at 1110, just one tick above that.
We really would not want to
see further price action above
1109. Therefore, we have a tight
stop.

Price Targets
Figure 7
Now, with the available price
data, we want to set some price
targets and, hopefully, a time
target. Lets go back now and
see that retracement here. Re-
member, we said that the .618
retracement of wave (1) comes
in at 876. That is one point we
can look at for a projection.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 5
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 8
What is the other thing that we
can do using Fibonacci relation-
ships? We can look at the length
of wave A in red. We are going
from point R, the beginning of
wave A, to point S, the end of
wave A. Then we are going to
extend multiples of that length
from point T, which is the end
of wave B in red. This gives
us estimates for wave C within
wave (2). Remember, we are
looking for more than one point
that might be close. Right now,
the only target point we have is
876 to the downside. Look at the
1.000 mark. That means it is a
1-to-1 relationship, and it comes
in at 856. If wave C equals wave
A, it would end at 856. If wave
C is 1.618 multiplied by the length of wave A, it would end down at 700; that would be a fairly deep retrace-
ment. Yet 856 is somewhat close to the 876. So, we have a couple of good points. Again, right now, we are just
looking for a general target or something to aim for as this price move for Cocoa unfolds to the downside.
Figure 9
I now have this Fibonacci clus-
ter. Wave (2) retraces .618 of
wave (1) at 876, and C equals A
at 856. Remember, we are look-
ing for wave C in red to come
down to complete wave (2).

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 6
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 10
We are short at 1076 and have a
stop at 1110. For a price target,
we will shoot for 856 for now,
because C equals A is a strong
relationship. We certainly could
use 876 or a range of 876 to 856;
we will fine-tune this price ob-
jective as we go forward.

Figure 11
On this chart, I have moved
ahead several days in time, and
you can see that we are breaking
out to the downside. Notice that
I have marked our potential risk
and potential reward. Given our
stop at 1110 from the 1076 start
point and our projected target
of 856, our potential risk is 34
points and our potential reward
is 220 points. So, we have a very
good risk-to-reward ratio, and
we have already come down.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 7
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 12
Lets now analyze this move
down. I put some wave labels
on here. We can count the waves
within wave C as 6, 7, 8, 9
and possibly 0, or maybe 8
ends at the bottom right. It is
debatable. Its possible that at
the start of wave C, there is a
small 6 -7. In both cases, there
are three waves; we either have
three waves down to the second
to last low or to the very last low
on the right.
Can we get out of the position
here? Certainly we can. At the
second to last low, we are down
to 914. At the last low, the level
is 897. So, we certainly have a
decent profit. However, at these
levels 897 and 914 we do not even achieve parity with wave A. In other words, if we are going to take the
view that wave C has ended, then wave C would be less than wave A in terms of length. It would be approxi-
mately equal to 80 percent of wave A. We want to stay in this position. Remember, we still see the potential
for 856 or 876. Instead of just getting out, we can bring our stop down and still shoot for the target of 856.
Now that we have more price information from waves 6 through 8, we can start to calculate additional Fi-
bonacci points, right? We can look at the distance of waves 6 through 8 and try to project wave 0 within
wave C. We can also make some
Fibonacci time projections. But
first matters first. We really
should adjust our stop level.

Adjusting Stop Level


Figure 13
Assuming for now that the sec-
ond to last low is wave 8 within
C, we are looking at a Fibonacci
retracement of wave 8. We do
not want to have the price action
go much above a .618 retrace-
ment, though, because that
probably would indicate that the
move has ended. So, lets lower
the stop down to 1026, which
is just above the .618 level at

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 8
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

1024. This way, we will hold onto the position and see what happens. Unless we get a bad fill, we know that
we really have no more risk. We do have opportunity loss: if the market moves up to 1026, that is certainly a
lost opportunity, but not an outright loss. So, with the stop at 1026 now, we are going to hang in there, because
there is strong evidence that we can go down even more.
Figure 14
We have moved ahead several
days. Now it looks like wave
8 ends at the last low. The next
high could be 9, and the fol-
lowing low could be 0.Then,
maybe it is over, but we still
have not even reached parity.
The lowest low to the right is
880. That still does not give us
parity with wave A. At 880, we
are about 90 percent the length
of wave A. It is still possible that
we can stay in and watch the
price go down further to that 856
level, or we can get out here. But
again, we can just keep lowering
our stop. There is no need to exit
too quickly.
Figure 15
On this chart, we have moved
our wave 8 label down. I think
that maybe the next rise can
be a wave 9 expanded flat.
Possibly. Lets move ahead
a few days now that we have
moved wave 8 down.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 9
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 16
We see now that we have moved
up substantially. The top level at
the right is 1000 even. Notice
what happens next: We gap
down from there. Maybe this
price move is going up. Maybe
the move is over. Just look at the
whole wave (2). It is not what
you call very sharp, but again,
we can adjust our stop. This is
not the best looking 9. Look
at how small the 7 is, and this
9 is a bit large. It is awkward-
looking to be a wave 9, but it
does have the characteristics of
a corrective structure. We will
put a 9 up there at the top for
now just to give us a reference
point.
Figure 17
If we are going to hold on here,
we want to bring our stop down
even more. Look at the .618
retracement of wave 8 that
comes out at 1018. So, we are
going to move our stop down to
1019. Remember, we are short
at 1076 and would not want to
see a move above this 1018.
We are going to take a stand
here. We see that we are gap-
ping down. There is a good
chance that maybe we are com-
ing down in wave 0. We have
some valuable information here
with waves 6, 7, 8 and 9 of
wave C in red. Next, we will do
some more Fibonacci analysis
and see if it coincides with that
856 and 876. We can also do
time analysis.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 10
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Continued Fibonacci Analysis


Figure 18
Lets look at the whole move of
developing wave C by starting with
the net distance traveled of waves
6 through 8. In other words,
the beginning of wave 6 is at my
starting point R, and point S is the
end of wave 8. Then, we are going
to what I think is the end of wave
9, which is point T. We can now
project downward some Fibonacci
relationships for wave 0, and that
is what this diagram shows you.
That .618 869 in blue is saying
that if wave 0 goes down to 869, it
will be equal to .618 multiplied by
the net distance traveled of waves
6 through 8. If wave 0 goes
down to 788, it will be on parity
with waves 6 through 8. If wave
0 is 1.618 multiplied by the length
of waves 6 through 8 of course,
that would be an extension we
will be down at 657. That does
not work; we can eliminate that
option because it goes below 674.
In Elliott wave analysis, wave (2)
cannot go beyond the start of wave
(1). Even the 788 is way past our
856 target. But we are going to take
note of the 869 level. We will build
on our Fibonacci price cluster, be-
cause now, besides 856 and 876,
we also have 869. Lets look for
some more relationships here, all
based on the assumption that wave
9 ends at the top right.
Figure 19
Lets look at some Fibonacci dividers. We are looking at how wave 9 divides waves 6 through 0. Look
down at the 824: if wave 0 ends at 824, then the entire length from 1109 to 824 is equal to 2.618 multiplied
by the length from 1109 to 1000. So in other words, if the distance from 1109 to 1000 is 1 (the net distance
traveled of 6 through 9), the entire length is 2.618 at 824.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 11
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 20
That is the same as saying that
the end of wave 9 creates the
Golden Section. If the entire
length is 2.618 of the length
from 1109 to 1000, that means
that the length in red is .618 of
the whole (1.618 over 2.618 is
.618), and the length in blue is
.382 of the whole (1 over 2.618
is .382), which means that the
lower section is .618, and the
upper section is .382. So, we
have another Fibonacci point. If
wave 0 of wave C of wave (2)
ends at 824, it forms a perfect
Golden Section.

Figure 21
We have a decent Fibonacci
price cluster, thanks to our anal-
ysis in which we were looking
for wave 0 of wave C of wave
(2). Wave (2) retraces .618 of
wave (1) at 876. C equals A at
856. 0 of C equals .618 multi-
plied by the net distance traveled
of waves 6 through 8 at 869.
We see that the end of wave 9
of wave C forms that GS, or
Golden Section; there is a .382
on the upper section and a .618
on the lower section, if wave
0 ends at 824. So, we have a
whole cluster of points that we
can monitor.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 12
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 22
What about the price target
then? I have made it a range of
somewhere around 856 to 824.
I have given up on the 876, be-
cause I think that it is possible
to go a little bit further than that.
But we will keep everything in
mind.

Time Targets
Figure 23
Now, lets look at time targets.
We want to do some Fibonacci
analysis with respect to time
on this C wave. We are starting
right at the beginning of wave
6 of C. At the bottom, the num-
bers in blue are all Fibonacci
numbers. Do you see the 5, 8,
13, 21, and 34? If the entire C
wave lasts 34 days, it will end
on Friday, July 6, 2001. The last
piece of price data is from July
3. The high at the end of wave
9 is July 2, and then we have
the point on July 3. This is tell-
ing us that there is a possibility
that the whole move may end
on July 6. That really is just a
couple of days away.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 13
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 24
Lets look at some other rela-
tionships. Now here, we are
looking to see if we can identify
a Golden Section with respect
to time. We start at the begin-
ning of wave 6 of wave C and
extend this forward. We want
to see if either the end of wave
9 or the beginning of wave
9 creates a Golden Section.
The .618 red dotted line tells us
that the end of wave 9 forms
a Golden Section .618 for the
first time section and .382 for
the second if this entire move
ends on July 26, 2001. So, that
is one point. That is pretty far
out in time, since we are only
at July 3, but we can keep that
point in mind.
Figure 25
Now here is another one. Instead
of looking at the end of wave
9, we are looking at the end of
wave 8, which is the beginning
of wave 9. We are looking for a
Golden Section with respect to
time. Notice the .382. If the C
wave ends on July 10 or wave
0 of C ends on July 10 the end
of wave 8 or the beginning of
wave 9 will divide the whole
time frame into .382 and .618.
So, here is another date, July 10,
to keep in our memory besides
July 6.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 14
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 26
Now, lets try a Fibonacci exten-
sion. We look at the total time
from the beginning of wave 6
to the end of wave 8. Then, we
extend from wave 9. We are
looking at .382, .618 and even
1.618. In terms of time, if wave
0 is equal to .382 multiplied
by the net distance traveled of
waves 6 through 8, we get an
end point of July 9. If wave 0
is equal to .618 multiplied by the
net distance traveled of waves
6 through 8, we get July 13.
Now we are starting to get a
Fibonacci time cluster.

Figure 27
To sum up our Fibonacci time
targets: We can see that the end
of wave 8 of C forms a Golden
Section if 0 ends on July 10. In
C, .382 multiplied by 6 through
8 from the end of 9 gives us
July 9 for the end of 0. In C,
.618 multiplied by 6 through
8 from the end of 9 gives us
July 13. Remember, these are all
with respect to time, not price.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 15
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 28
So now we have both a good
price cluster and a good time
cluster for Cocoa, which I have
summarized here. Here are our
prices: We are looking for 856 to
824. Now we have a time target
July 9 to July 13. I left out July
6 because it seems to be a little
too soon. By the way, these are
trading days, not calendar days.
When we are analyzing time on
a daily bar chart or less, we are
looking at the actual bars; so, we
are always looking at the trading
days. Whereas at higher time
frames, if we are looking at a
weekly or monthly, we are look-
ing at the actual weeks, because
we do not have trading weeks.
So, we have to have a bit of tolerance of the plus or minus one day, because we dont calculate fractions of
days. These estimates .618, .382 are always whole numbers. I am not putting up fractions of days. So we
could be off plus or minus one day. We have to consider that as well.

Conclusion
Figure 29
Before we move ahead in time,
what other analysis can we
do? Lets not forget some of
our Elliott wave guidelines.
Remember, this wave (2) is a
zigzag, so we can draw a trend
channel (the blue lines) that
contains the zigzag. We can
also channel an impulse wave
for wave C with green lines.
Notice that these two channels
intersect at about the 825 level.
The bottom of these channels is
certainly within our price-target
range.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 16
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 30
The red box Ive drawn takes
into account both our price and
time targets. So, we are going to
look now for this wave C move
to come into that box or close to
that box, and that is where we
are going to get out.

Figure 31
So, heres the chart showing
how Cocoas price moved in the
next few days. We are gapping
down. Notice that the price ac-
tion comes into our target area,
meeting our price and time tar-
gets. The exact day in the box
is July 10. The low of July 10
right now is 854. The range is
from 880 to 854. We have come
a little bit past the 856, so we
are going to get out. There is
no other reason to stay in at this
point, and with a fast-moving
market, it is probably best to
get out. We will get out in the
middle of the range between
880 and 854.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 17
Chapter 1 Fibonacci Analysis of Cocoa

Figure 32
The middle comes out to 867,
and we end up with a profit of
209 points.

Figure 33
Look what happened next. The
low after wave 9 does turn out
to be wave 0 of C of (2), and
we do get a major reversal. As
a matter of fact, cocoa goes up
substantially into the start of
Intermediate wave (3).

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 18
Chapter 2: Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Identifying Structure
Note: The Starbucks analysis beginning with Figure 34 starts on Slide 40 of Wayne Gormans Online
Trading Course, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2.

Now lets move on to a situation in


Starbucks that took place back in
2006.
Figure 34
Here is a chart of Starbucks from the
middle of 2004 up through almost
the end of 2006. The end of the
graph on the far right is the week of
November 3, and that is when we are
going to start trading. Lets put some
wave labels on this chart.
Figure 35
There is a big upturn here. Our con-
cern, of course, is really toward the
end of the chart, but we can label the
waves (3) and (4), and then waves 1,
2, 3, and 4 in red. That is certainly an
unusually deep wave 4, but the move
off of it looks impulsive and there
is no overlap. Wave 4 in red ends at
28.72, and the wave 1 high in red is
28.45. We are going to look at the
rise after wave 4 on a daily chart, and
we will see that we have an impulse
type of structure. But first, lets stay
with the big picture. Wave 3 ends
at $39.88 per share on Starbucks.
The next high after wave 4 is 39.50.
These are important prices.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 19
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Fibonacci Analysis on the Weekly Chart


Figure 36
Lets now do some Fibonacci
analysis here on the weekly chart.
We are looking to go long at the
end of this graph to capture the
end of wave 5 in red. We want
to basically capture that upward
move. If we go from the begin-
ning of wave 1 at point R to the
end of wave 3 at point S, we are
looking at the net distance trav-
eled of waves 1 through 3. If wave
5 equals .618 multiplied by waves
1 through 3, what is our target?
That comes out to 39.59. That
poses a little bit of a problem, be-
cause wave 3 ends at 39.88. This
projection is telling us that wave 5
might be truncated. We have been
on a long-term up-move for quite
a while. And 39.59 does go above
the high on the far right, which
is 39.50, but only by 9 cents. So
we are not going to put too much
weight on this number, but we
will keep it in mind.
Figure 37
What about a Golden Section?
Notice these dotted blue lines
here. We are looking at how wave
4 divides the entire move waves
1 through 5 into the Golden
Section. .382 is the first section
and .618 is the second. At 39.12,
there is a Golden Section, because
if the whole move is 2.618 of the
length from 28.72 to 22.29, that
comes out to 39.12. That is even
more of a truncated wave, which
again is not going to help us very
much. That does not even go above the high at the right of the chart. So these calculations are either telling us
that we need to be on watch for a truncated fifth or that they are just not working on the weekly.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 20
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Fibonacci Analysis on the Daily Bar Chart


Figure 38
So now we are looking at the daily bar
chart of Starbucks. Notice wave 4 in
red that we were looking at before. We
want to do some Fibonacci analysis
based on the daily chart, but lets first
put some wave labels on.
Starting from the low at wave 4 in red,
we can label waves 6, 7, 8 and 9
in blue. I put in the subdivisions of
wave 8 so that you can get an idea of
how I arrived at this wave 8. We have
(i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v) in red. Then
we have wave 9 in blue that looks
like a double zigzag. We have a gap
in wave (v) in red that we have to be
concerned about. Now we are looking
for wave 0 of 5 to the upside.
So, lets analyze this. The high at the
end of wave 8 in blue is 39.50. We
do not know if wave 9 in blue is
over yet. Lets not jump ahead too
much. That low in wave 9 is 36.22
on November 3. We will start trading
on November 3, and we are looking
to go long. However, we first want
to determine how we are going set a
stop. What is our stop going to be and
is wave 9 over?

Price Targets
Figure 39
Lets look at some price projections
here. Wave 0 in blue will end up
somewhere around the top right of the
chart. How do we get that number?
First, we look at the distance of wave
6 in blue from point R to point S. If wave 0 is going to equal wave 6, we add that distance onto the end
of wave 9, and we get 38.71. Well, that is even below those other 39 levels. Why are we looking at parity?
Because wave 8 in blue is extended, and if wave 8 is extended, we can usually expect wave 0 to equal
wave 6. That does not help us here, though, because 38.71 is too low. It is almost telling us that we are going
to have a truncated fifth wave. Maybe we will have to watch for that after all.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 21
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Figure 40
How about this relationship,
then? How about looking from
the beginning of wave 6 in blue
to the end of wave 8 point R
to point S? We multiply that by
.382 and add that onto wave 9.
That gives us a target of 40.34.
In other words, at 40.34, wave
0 equals the net distance trav-
eled of waves 6 through 8
multiplied by .382. Now we are
getting somewhere. At least that
is higher than 39.50. That seems
to make some sense, so we are
going to take note of it. It is a
possible price target.
Figure 41
Lets look at the Golden Sec-
tion again but now on this daily
chart. We are looking at how
the end of wave 9 divides the
entire price movement into .618
for the lower half and .382 for
the upper half. That is the same
as saying that the entire distance
is equal to 1.618 multiplied by
the distance from 36.22 to 28.72.
We get a price target of 40.86 a
valuable piece of information.
If wave 0 ends at 40.86, then
wave 9 will have divided the
entire price movement into the
Golden Section.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 22
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Figure 42
We have a Fibonacci price
cluster now to help us estimate
the end of wave 0 in blue,
which is completing the wave
5 in red, which is completing
wave (5). What does this tell
us? That we are talking about
a fifth of a fifth of a fifth wave,
so we have to be cautious here.
We are approaching the end of a
major move. Maybe we should
not even go long. Maybe we
should just let it play out and go
short, but why dont we try? It
looks like there could be a de-
cent move. We have Fibonacci
clusters here with price, so it
may be worth doing.
Let me review: 0 of 5 in red equals .382 multiplied by 6 through 8 at 40.34. The end of 9 of 5 in red forms
a Golden Section, if 0 ends at 40.86. Wave 5 in red of (5) equals .618 multiplied by the net distance traveled of
waves 1 through 3 in red at 39.59. Now remember that we can have a truncation. Wave 5 in red can be truncated,
and wave 0 in blue can be truncated. We will keep that in mind, but we are not going to look for a truncation.
For a price target, we just look at the mid-point of 40.34 and 40.86; that will give us a target of 40.50.
Figure 43
On November 3, the low is
36.22 and the high is 37.40; the
middle of that range is 36.80.
So, we are going to go long
at 36.80 with a price target of
40.50 based on that price clus-
ter. We should exclude the price
target of 39.50 unless we see
more evidence that there will be
a truncated fifth wave.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 23
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Time Targets
Figure 44
Now, I want to go back to the
weekly chart and examine some
time relations. The numbers
87, 54, and 44 are all weeks.
Notice the .618 red dotted line.
We are looking to see how the
end of wave 3 in red, which is
the same as the beginning of
wave 4, divides the entire time
length for waves 1 through 5 in
red into the Golden Section. We
get an end date of December 22,
2006, which means that if this
entire move ends on December
22, the end of wave 3 will have
divided the entire time duration
into the Golden Section, the
first section being .618 and the
second .382. Well, December 22
is pretty far away from Novem-
ber 3, considering that we are
looking for a move over about
a week or two. Yet we will still
keep it in mind.
Figure 45
In terms of time, we can also
look at waves 1 through 3 and
extend from wave 4. We find
that .382 times that length is
88 weeks forward (a Fibonacci
89 minus 1), which comes out
to December 29. On the chart
before, December 22 was at 87
weeks, so December 29 is at 88
weeks.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 24
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Figure 46
Here is one last relationship a
Fibonacci 89 weeks for waves
1 through 5. That comes out to
January 5, 2007. These are all
pretty far away in time from
November 3, but we will make
note of them and see what hap-
pens.

Figure 47
Before we go forward with the
trade, there is a time target that
looks more reasonable back on
the daily chart. Look at the Min-
ute waves 6, 7, 8 and 9 in
blue. If wave 0 in blue of wave
5 in red ends on November 15,
then the beginning of wave 9
or the end of wave 8 in blue
will have divided the whole time
duration into a Golden Section.
For now then, we will set a time
target of November 15, 2006,
because it is the only close time
target we have.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 25
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Setting a Stop
Figure 48
Now we need to set a decent
stop level. For the stop, we look
at the retracement that wave 9
in blue makes of wave 8. We
are looking at the distance that
wave 8 travels from 29.37 to
39.50 as we also acknowledge
that the gap at 36.09 might com-
plicate things. It turns out that
the .382 retracement of wave
8 is 35.63. So, if we put our
stop below the .382 level, we
already have taken the gap into
account, and we do not have to
worry about it.
Figure 49
What else can we do? We can
look at wave 9 in blue more
closely and see if it has ended.
If it has not ended, we can map
out another level to put our
stop. I labeled this wave 9 as
a double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y).
We measure wave (w) and then
see if wave (y) equals wave (w),
which is a common relationship.
It is analogous to wave C equal-
ing wave A in a single zigzag. In
a double zigzag, we first look
for wave (y) to equal wave (w);
that is what 1.000 means on this
chart a 1-to-1 relationship.
Well, wave (y) equals wave (w)
at 36.22. We have already traded
at 36.22; that is the low here. So,
wave 9 may be over, but we cannot be totally sure. This Fibonacci price cluster can help us to determine our
stop. We already know that we have hit 36.22. So, we set a stop slightly below 35.63, which covers the gap.
That means that wave (y) could be a little bit longer.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 26
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Figure 50
Here is all of our information on
one chart for Starbucks:
We are long at 36.80.
We have a price target of
40.50.
Based on our Golden
Section for time, we are
first looking for Novem-
ber 15.
If we go past that, we
will look for the end of
December.
We h a v e a s t o p a t
35.50.
Our potential risk is 1.3
points and our potential
reward is 3.7 points.

Conclusion
Figure 51
On this daily Starbucks chart,
we have moved forward several
days. We have a little bit of a
problem here, since we cer-
tainly have not reached 40.50.
That last high to the right on
November 15 is 39.39. We have
not even gotten above wave
8 in blue, which you can see
with the dotted line. Should we
label wave 0 in blue as having
waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 and just
say, Well, its a truncated fifth
of another truncated fifth? It
could be truncated, but we will
give it another day. The other
thing we can do is raise our stop.
Lets just give it another day and
see what happens.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 27
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Figure 52
So, now we are finally coming
up. This is November 16, so we
are one day past our time target.
The high up on the top right is
40.01, which means that we can
now eliminate the truncated-
fifth scenario. We have gone
beyond the wave 8 high. We
have gone beyond the high of
the other weekly chart wave 3
(not shown here) at 39.88. Yet
we must take caution. This is a
fifth of a fifth of a fifth, and we
cannot stay in much longer. We
can certainly get out here. We
have not gotten up to 40.50, but
we are close. We certainly have
met the time target of November
15. Can we wait another day?
Why dont we do this: If it starts
to come down a little bit, we will
get out on the next day. Hows
that? Lets see what happens.
Figure 53
That was a very bad decision.
Starbucks gaps down tremen-
dously the next day. Even if we
had raised our stop, we probably
would not have even gotten
filled. It goes down to a range of
37.54 to 36.72 that is a huge
drop. We have to get out now; it
looks like this is over. We basi-
cally broke even. So, here is a
case where waiting just one day
really killed us. It is certainly a
lesson to be learned.
In real time doing this, would I have waited another day? I might have. I would not have thought that this stock
was going to gap down, but then, after the gap down, I probably would have said to myself, Well, I should
have known that, because it was a fifth of a fifth of a fifth. Looking back, there were some other clues that
told us we really should have been cautious of a big down move. We just came up with Fibonacci relationships
telling us that the wave was going to be short or even truncated. It was a bit risky to have stayed on this long,
even though it was just one extra day. One day can make a big difference.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 28
Chapter 2 Fibonacci Analysis of Starbucks Corporation

Figure 54
One last chart going back to the
weekly. See where that wave 5
in red ends? That is a major top,
which we almost caught. Then
we have a major decline after
that in Starbucks. Now, lets
look at our third scenario.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 29
Chapter 3: Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/USD FX
Identifying Structure
Note: The Euro/USD FX analysis beginning with Figure 55 starts on Slide 65 of Wayne Gormans Online
Trading Course, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2.

This last scenario is going to be the


Euro against the U.S. Dollar in the
foreign exchange market.
Figure 55
Here is a daily continuation chart
of the Euro. These are futures. By
the way, the system I am using here
is Trade Navigator, also known as
GenesisFT. It provides you with a
lot of the Fibonacci tools, so you
can quickly do your calculations
just using your mouse.
In this chart, we are going from June
2007 up to the middle of November
2007. We are going to start trading
on November 13, 2007. Lets label
this chart.
Figure 56
There is a Minute wave 6 and wave
7 in blue on the left of the chart,
and we are now in Minute wave
8. We have waves (i), (ii), (iii),
and (iv). Within wave (v), we have
waves i, ii, iii and iv in brown, and
we are looking for wave v. In this
case, we are looking for an up-move
for wave v in brown within wave (v)
within wave 8 in blue. The wave
ii in brown is an expanded flat, and
wave iv in brown is a zigzag. So,
we have nice alternation there. Lets
analyze this after I give you some
data points that are important. The
low for wave iv in brown is 1.4528.
The high of wave iii in brown is
1.4760. The low of wave 7 in blue
on August 16 is 1.3370.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 30
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Fibonacci Retracement Analysis


Figure 57
The first thing we want to do is
get oriented. Where are we in
this wave count? Maybe wave
iv in brown has not ended. We
want to see how wave iv retraces
wave iii. I have put up my Fi-
bonacci table. What do we see?
We go from the beginning of
wave iii in brown up to the end
of wave iii. We see that wave iv
almost makes a .382 retracement
of wave iii. The .382 retrace-
ment comes in at 1.4523, and
we make a low at 1.4528. So, we
are just 5 points, or 5 ticks, away
from making a .382. Maybe
wave iv is over.

Figure 58
Just for the sake of comparison,
I thought Id show you that
wave ii in brown makes about a
.50 retracement of wave i.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 31
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 59
If we go up to the higher degree,
wave (iv) makes almost a .382
retracement of wave (iii). As a
matter of fact, it falls shy of it
almost by the same amount as
wave iv in brown.

Figure 60
Here, wave (ii) makes almost a
.50 retracement of wave (i).

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 32
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Drawing a Trend Channel


Figure 61
How else can we determine
whether wave iv is completed
and that the Euro/USD is ready
to start wave v? First, we are go-
ing to draw in a trend channel.
We have an impulse wave here.
Since we have identified what
we think are waves i, ii, iii and
iv, we connect the end of wave
ii to the end of wave iv. The end
of that wave ii is 1.4139, and
the end of wave iv is 1.4528.
Then we draw a line parallel to
that channel line that includes
the termination point of wave i.
Why do we pick wave i and not
wave iii? Because wave iii is
exceptionally steep, and one of
the guidelines is that you would
draw it from wave 1 rather than
wave 3, if 3 is steep. As you can see, it does not matter, because when we include the end of wave i and extend
it, it includes the end of wave iii anyway. So, in addition to the Fibonacci analysis, we have a perfect trend
channel that can help us set the
price target for wave v.

Setting a Stop
Figure 62
Now we want to set a stop. The
rate could come down further
maybe it goes below the chan-
nel, or maybe we have to redo
the channel. Or maybe it is a
throw-under, and we will have a
throw-over for wave v. The blue
box is the previous fourth wave
within wave iii. It is debatable
whether that fourth wave has
ended at 1.4517 or further up
at 1.4537.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 33
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 63
Notice the 1.4519. That is the
general area of the previous
fourth wave at one lesser degree.
So, we are going to keep that in
mind, in terms of our stop. Lets
blow up wave iv.

Figure 64
That small wave iv all the way
to the right ends at 1.4528. I
have gone all the way down to
a 15-minute bar, because I really
could not see the structure on the
hourly chart. We want to see if
this wave iv is over or not; if it
is not over, we want to see how
far it has to go. Now I am finally
able to see a wave structure that
I can recognize and label.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 34
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 65
Although you could not see it
on the daily, the brown wave iv
on the right forms a zigzag. We
have wave A in red with five
waves down (1) through (5).
Of course, this is A of a small
degree. We have a wave B tri-
angle in red. We see the (A), (B),
(C), (D), and (E) of the triangle.
Then we have five waves down
for wave C in red on the right.
So we have a lot of information
here. Notice waves (1), (2), and
(3) of wave C. Wave (4) really
is an A, triangle B, and then C
(labels not shown on chart); that
is what those green lines mean
within wave (4) of C. Lets
analyze this and see if we can
get more evidence that wave iv
in brown is close to ending or
has ended.
Figure 66
Well, what do we know about a
zigzag? There is a relationship
between C and A in red. I
measure from the beginning of
A to the end of A point R to
point S. I extend or expand that
from the end of wave B point
T at 1.4685. What do we find?
Look at the numbers in blue at
the bottom. At 1.4541, wave C
is equal to 1.618 multiplied by
the length of wave A. Where
are we? We are at 1.4528. Here
is evidence that wave C may
be over. We have gone a little
bit past it.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 35
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 67
Lets see if we have any other
evidence. Within wave C, we
look at waves (1) through (3).
We take the net distance traveled
of waves (1) through (3) which
is point R to point S and then
expand that downward from
the end of wave (4). We find
that at 1.4521, wave (5) of C
equals .382 multiplied by the net
distance traveled of waves (1)
through (3). That gives us an-
other point or clue. Remember,
we hit 1.4528. So again, it looks
like wave iv in brown is over.

Figure 68
Lets just look at time. These are
not days or weeks this is the
15-minute bar. The red numbers
at the bottom are the number of
15-minute bars. I am looking
to see if within wave C, which
is five waves down, if there is
a Golden Section with respect
to time. It is close. The end of
wave (3) does form a Golden
Section with respect to time.
The first half is .618 and then
the next time frame is .382 with
a few more 15-minute bars. As
you can see, we are not that far
away from forming that Golden
Section.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 36
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 69
Here is the Fibonacci price
cluster that we discussed. Re-
member that wave iv in brown
retraces .382 of iii in brown at
1.4523. We looked at the C
wave within iv and compared
it to 1.618 times A, and we got
1.4541. We looked at wave (5)
of C as it relates to .382 times
waves (1) through (3), and we
got 1.4521. So, we have a lot
of evidence to tell us that wave
iv has either ended or is near to
ending.
We are going to set the stop
somewhere below the 1.4523
level and that would at least be
in that previous fourth wave in
the 1.4519 area. So, lets set our
stop somewhere down below
1.4519 for going long.

Price Targets
Figure 70
Lets look at price projections.
We measure waves i through
iii in brown and then expand
that from the end of wave iv.
We find that if wave v ends at
1.4977, wave v will equal .618
multiplied by the net distance
traveled of waves i through
iii. So, 1.4977 is an important
price target.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 37
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 71
Now lets look at some Fibo-
nacci dividers. Look at the end
of wave iv at 1.4528. If wave v
ends at 1.5023, the entire price
range will be divided exactly
in half, 50%-50%, at the end
of wave v. We would have a
Golden Section at 1.4834. That
is a little bit lower than what
we have been looking at. Re-
member, we have 1.4977 and
1.5023. But we will keep 1.4834
in mind. I did not put in the
.382 and .618 on the chart, but
this analysis says that if wave v
ends at 1.4834, we would have
a Golden Section.

Figure 72
Now we are going to the next
higher degree. We measure
waves (i) through (iii) and ex-
pand that from the end of wave
(iv). We find that if wave (v)
ends at 1.4965, it is on parity
with (i) through (iii) instead of
just (i). Normally, parity is when
you have an extension for one
of the other waves, but it is the
closest thing we can find. It is
not a .618 or a 1.618 and so on,
but we will make note of that.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 38
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 73
We see that the end of wave
(iii) forms a Golden Section at
1.4878 for wave (v).

Figure 74
Lets summarize these relation-
ships. We have a Fibonacci clus-
ter made up of 1.4977, 1.4965,
1.5023, and 1.4878. When we
average all of those together,
we end up with a price target
of 1.4935 for v in brown of (v)
of 8.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 39
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Time Targets
Figure 75
Lets look at time. Notice the
.618 at the end of wave iii or the
beginning of wave iv. It makes
a Golden Section if this entire
move ends on November 30.

Figure 76
I tried to look at some others
here with respect to time like
the .382 or the .5 but they just
did not work. They would just
move it further over. Remember,
right now we are on November
13. If there is a Golden Section,
this is telling us to look for No-
vember 30.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 40
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 77
Here we expand. We are looking
at the total distance of waves i
through iii and expanding that
from the end of wave iv. What
do we find if we expand that by
.382? That comes out to a target
of November 26. So, we will
keep that date in mind.

Figure 78
If the whole move starting from
the end of wave (iv) to wave (v)
up at the top lasts a Fibonacci
34 days, then that, too, is No-
vember 26.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 41
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 79
Now we go up one degree. Look
at the beginning of Minute wave
8 in blue and the Minuette
wave (iv) in red. See how wave
(iv) divides the entire time
length of Minute wave 8? If
wave (v) ends on November 29,
then wave (iv) makes a 50%-
50% split.

Figure 80
One other thing: If I am look-
ing at just a Fibonacci number
of days, I get 89 days. So, that
takes us out to December 19,
which is pretty far. We will keep
that in the back of our minds.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 42
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 81
Here is a summary of the time
clusters. I will repeat these just
to make sure you get this. The
first one says that the end of
wave iii in brown forms a Gold-
en Section .618-.382 if wave
v in brown ends on November
30. Wave v equals .382 of a
move from i to iii if it ends on
November 26. November 26 is
a Fibonacci 34 days for waves i
through v in brown. The last one
is that the end of wave (iv) forms
a 50%-50% split 50 percent
on each side of wave 8 in blue,
if wave (v) ends on November
29. So we have November 26,
29 and 30.
Figure 82
There is one more thing I want
to look at, at higher degree with
respect to time. If we start from
the end of wave 7 in blue,
measure waves (i) through (iii)
and extend that from wave (iv),
we get a Fibonacci 1.618 at
December 20. We will have to
keep that in mind. If this move
does not end around the end of
November, then we are looking
toward the end of December.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 43
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 83
Another thing: We have drawn
in our channels. We have a long-
term channel for waves (i), (ii),
(iii), and (iv), right? Then the
green lines show the short-term
channel for waves i, ii, iii and iv
in brown. Notice that the lower
channel lines intersect at the end
of wave iv. As we go up, if we go
beyond the blue channel, then
we will look for the short-term
channel. Again, I connect (ii)
and (iv) and draw a parallel line
that includes wave (i), because
wave (iii) is steep.

To summarize all of our analysis:


We are going long at 1.4584 on November 13. That level is the middle of the price range.
We put our stop down to 1.4510 that is below the .382 Fibonacci level. It is within the area of the
previous fourth. Hopefully, it will not get tested.
The price target is 1.4935, which is an average of prices in the cluster.
Our time target is from November 26 to November 30.
Our potential risk is 74 points, and our potential reward is 351 points.
The red box at the top of the chart represents our target with respect to time and price. So, we are look-
ing to come right into that box, which is right on one of the blue channel lines and is also in between
those two green channel lines.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 44
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Conclusion
Figure 84
We have now moved forward
in time, and, fortunately, we
are moving up. We can raise
our stop level. On November
22, 2007, which is at the end
of the chart, we make a high of
1.4880. The low is 1.4827. We
have not reached our time target
or price target of 1.4935, but we
are coming very close. Unlike
the Starbucks scenario, we are
not going to wait too long, but
lets go a little bit further in time.
Keep in mind that November 23
is a Friday, and November 26
therefore is a Monday.
Figure 85
We are still moving up. So, now
it is Friday, November 23. We
have met our price target. The
high is 1.4977 that should ring
a bell. That is where wave v in
brown is equal to .618 multi-
plied by i through iii. Now, why
arent we in the box? We are on
November 23, and the box starts
at November 26. We are just
one day from our time cluster.
I say we get out. We went past
the longer-term channel, but we
are almost hitting the short-term
channel. We have met just about
everything. So, unlike Star-
bucks, we are not going to wait
another day. Now, of course, we
could have left an order with the
broker to get us out at 1.4935
that was another option. But the
way I approach this is by taking
it day-to-day.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 45
Chapter 3 Fibonacci Analysis of Euro/U.S. Dollar Foreign Exchange

Figure 86
So, we are going to get out in
the middle of the current range
at 1.4882; that is a profit of 298
points. We are going to call this
v of (v) of 8. We can see a five-
wave structure within v (labels
and degree not shown on chart):
1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, and we are not
going to wait another day.

Figure 87
Here is what happens after that.
This is the aftermath. The Euro/
USD, indeed, made a dramatic
move to the downside for Min-
ute wave 9 in blue. Now, in this
case, if we had waited another
day or two, it would not have
killed us; but it was the right
place to get out. We had all the
evidence.
That concludes this session on
the trading scenarios, and now
I will answer a few of your
questions.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 46
Chapter 4: Questions and Answers

Here are some selected questions and answers that followed the second part of Wayne Gormans original
presentation of How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 on March 19, 2008.

Q.: When projecting the Golden Section dividers, why use the end of wave 4 for price but use the begin-
ning and sometimes the end of wave 4 for time?

Gorman: Because the guideline applies to both. If you recall from one of the slides we had [in part 1],
for Golden Sections or for 50-50 splits, sometimes its the beginning of wave 4 that gives us a good target
and sometimes its the end of wave 4. So, youve got to look at both and then make a judgment call as to
which one is giving you more useful information.

Q: Would you have considered reversing your position when you exited on the Euro?

Gorman: Yes, thats a good point, but I had to stop the scenario somewhere. If I just kept going, wed
be here for another hour. But, yes, you had enough data to start thinking about not only getting out, but
going short.

Q; In Cocoa, why did you consider wave c of B a possible ending diagonal? There was so much con-
solidation.

Gorman: I based it more on the fact that wave c was basically equal or slightly longer than wave a,
and that a 1.618 relationship would have gone too far, and that wave B had retraced to .618. So, it was a
combination of evidence. It wasnt just one thing, but it had the right look.

Q: Time and price confluence raises confidence in high probability turning points. Do you weight your
trades or strictly position size?

Gorman: No, I would position a certain size based on my risk tolerance, in terms of managing my capital
and do a little bit of risk management in the sense of looking at what a several standard deviation move
might be overnight and calculating with a certain confidence interval what my value at risk is or earn-
ings at risk on a trade. I wouldnt weight them.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 47
Chapter 4 Questions and Answers

Q: Ive heard many times that trading is 99% psychological, such that, even with the best methods,
emotions get in the way. Is this a problem for you, too?

Gorman: Well, sure, yes. Its hard to keep your emotions in check and be objective. I think one of the best
ways to do that is certainly not to risk more than you feel comfortable losing. Otherwise, if youre taking
a larger risk, thats going to start getting your emotions going. And so, it is difficult. You really have to be
like a surgeon and be cool and calm about it, and just constantly be aware of your emotions.

Q: If someone is interested in pursuing your approach further, what first steps would you recom-
mend?

Gorman: I would certainly get the book, Elliott Wave Principle, which states all the Elliott rules and guide-
lines. I would look into taking some of our on-line courses. We have a whole library of on-line courses.
This course is just one of many. You may want to start with the Basics course and then work from there.
Just getting through Elliott Wave Principle will be a big task, too. Theres a lot there.

Q: If youre trading individual stocks, do you need to trade stocks with a longer history, for example,
IBM? Or would Google work?

Gorman: No, Google works. Ive been looking at Google. As a matter of fact, Ive been looking at a lot
of stocks that were IPOs recently, meaning over the last few years, because Id like to do a course on how
to trade individual stocks. Starting when they were IPOs, in other words, when a stock is born, how do
you know where you are in the wave count? Even with stocks that just became new companies in recent
years, you can pick up the wave count. And even if you cant go back years or decades, thats okay. You
look for things that you can recognize like a triangle. If you see a triangle you know that triangles are
normally in wave 4, so you immediately know that it looks like this IPO started in wave 4, and you go
from there.

Q: Does Elliott wave analysis apply best to stocks that have large volume?

Gorman: Well, yes, when it comes to individual stocks, it can be more difficult. I mean, it just depends
on the stock and, certainly, if theres better volume, thats going to help. In general, of course, the indexes
are better. But as weve seen with Starbucks and thats another reason I wanted to show that you can
use Elliott wave for individual stocks. Certainly, the ones that are more highly traded will display clearer
Elliott waves.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 48
Chapter 4 Questions and Answers

Q: Did the bank where you worked ever teach you the real trading secrets?

Gorman: My recollection is, at least back then in the 80s and 90s, that you were left to your own devices,
and nobody really told you anything. You were just thrown in there, and you had to just learn on your
own. If they did teach you anything, it was more about macroeconomics it was the standard economic
fundamentals: money supply, CPI, job data, etc.
Actually, this is a good question because it raises a point that I always think about when I look back. With
Elliott wave, whats the underlying theory of the wave pattern? Its that people herd. What causes all this?
In the aggregate, people engage in what we call if you really want to get technical about it unconscious
herding. People follow the decisions of others. They herd and everyone then follows what everyone else
is doing. You get this herding process.
Following others, thats what youre taught, usually when youre young and youre working for an institu-
tion. I remember that I was taught to find out what everyone else was doing and make sure I was doing the
same. What I found was that it was not the road to success, to just follow others. You had to be an inde-
pendent thinker. We were literally told every day to call around and find out what other traders were doing
and then decide what to do based on that. I found that didnt work, and the economic fundamentals did not
work either. Thats why I started using Elliott wave back in 1986 and have been using it ever since.

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci Part 2 2008 Elliott Wave International www.elliottwave.com 49
EWI eBook

How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci


Part 2: How To Use Fibonacci Relationships To Set
Trading Strategy

By Wayne Gorman, Elliott Wave International

2008 Elliott Wave International

Published by New Classics Library

For information, address the publishers:

New Classics Library


Post Office Box 1618
Gainesville, Georgia 30503 US

www.elliottwave.com

ISBN: 978-0-932750-80-8

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