Result Update

May 4, 2010
Rating matrix
Rating : Strong Buy GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)
Target : Rs 54
Target Period : 12 months Rs 45
Potential Upside : 20%
WHAT’S CHANGED…
Key Financials PRICE TARGET ............................................................................................. Unchanged
(Rs Crore) FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
EPS (FY10) ..................................................................... Changed from Rs 1.1 to Rs 1.0
Net Sales 513.8 1786.6 2073.6 2210.0
EBITDA 176.3 464.5 761.4 901.2 EPS (FY11E) ................................................................... Changed from Rs 1.6 to Rs 1.4
Net Profit 107.6 155.9 217.3 231.0 RATING.......................................................................................................... Unchanged
Valuation summary Consolidation at present levels…
FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E GVK Power & Infra (GVK) has reported numbers in line with our
PE (x) 85.1 46.6 33.4 31.4 estimates of ~3.5 fold YoY growth in topline from Rs 513 crore to Rs
Target PE (x) 99.5 54.5 39.1 36.8 1,786 crore. Growth was primarily led by a significant jump from the
EV/EBITDA (x) 66.1 25.8 15.8 13.6 power segment, which witnessed ~4.5 fold growth from Rs 355.6 crore
to Rs 1603.3 crore. GVK reported a PAT of Rs 155.9 crore compared to
P/BV (x) 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.0
Rs 107.6 crore in line with our estimates. The operational performance
RoNW (%) 3.4 4.5 7.8 7.7
showed a significant improvement with the EBITDA improving more
RoCE (%) 2.2 4.8 6.1 6.1 than 2.6 folds from Rs 176 crore to Rs 465 crore in FY10.
ƒ Expansion in power vertical
Stock data With the regulator stepping in the merchant power plans of GVK, the
Market Capitalisation Rs 6581 Crore opening of merchant power (~100 MW) will be delayed by two
Debt (FY10E) Rs 5047 Crore quarters. However, we believe the delay is not expected to have a
Cash (FY10E) Rs 82 Crore
material impact on the valuation. GVK Power has achieved financial
EV closure for the Tokisud coal mines and also financial closure for the
Rs 11546 Crore
52 week H/L
Goindwal Sahib (540 MW) coal based project in February 2010. GVK
Rs 54/10 Crore
is exploring opportunities to divest part of the stake in the power
Equity capital 158 Crore
vertical that will pave the way for funding further expansions in the
Face value Rs 1
power segment.
MF Holding (%) 5.9
FII Holding (%) 30.1 ƒ Clarity to emerge on real estate prospects, regulatory ambiguity
Price movement (Stock vs. Nifty) Real estate prospects at the MIAL land are expected to emerge over
FY11E along with clarity on calculation of revenues at MIAL, which is
60 6500 subject to regulatory clarifications. We believe the valuation of the
50 5500
aviation vertical will depend on regulatory clarifications.
40
Valuation
(In Units)

4500
(In Rs)

30
3500 At the CMP of Rs 45, the stock is trading at FY10 P/BV of 2.3x and FY11E
20
10 2500 P/BV of 2.2x. Clarity on the real estate prospects for the airport property
0 1500 will lead to a re-rating of the stock. Aviation segment (MIAL and BIAL)
Apr-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 showing a good operating performance along with better than expected
growth in the road vertical will continue to offer significant growth
GVK (L.H.S) Nifty (R.H.S)
prospects for GVK. Thus, we continue to maintain our STRONG BUY
Analyst’s name rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 54.
Jitesh Bhanot Exhibit 1: Performance highlights
jitesh.bhanot@icicisecurities.com Q4FY10A Q4FY10E Q4FY09 Q3FY10 QoQ (Chg %) YoY (Chg %)
Net Sales 488.6 493.4 167.0 473.5 3.2 192.7
EBITDA 78.6 164.7 36.1 140.8 -44.2 117.7
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.1 33.4 21.6 29.7 -1365 bps -554 bps
Depreciation 0.0 50.1 19.3 53.0 -100.0 -100.0
Interest 63.3 71.5 9.5 57.9 NA NA
Reported PAT 33.1 32.6 14.2 45.8 -27.7 132.4
EPS (Rs) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 -27.7 132.4
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research

 GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)

Result Analysis
For FY10, GVK Power & Infra (GVK) has reported a near ~3.5 fold YoY
growth in topline from Rs 513.8 crore to Rs 1786.6 crore in line with our
expectation. The power segment was the major contributor with ~4.5
fold growth over the same period. The power segment comprises ~90%
of the overall topline.
For FY10, the revenue for the road segment also witnessed a growth of
17.1% YoY mainly led by a ~12.6% jump in volume growth and
remaining due to a change in the mix of traffic.
For FY10, total revenue from Mumbai Airport (MIAL) also witnessed a
growth of 4.9% YoY from Rs 944 crore to Rs 990 crore led by an overall
passenger traffic growth of 9.3% YoY. MIAL also witnessed a substantial
improvement on the cost front with EBITDA witnessing a jump of ~65%
from Rs 190 crore to Rs 313 crore in the same period last year.
For FY10, total revenue for Bengaluru Airport (BIAL) witnessed a growth
of 50% with revenues growing from Rs 309.5 crore to Rs 465 crore. BIAL
has also witnessed a significant jump in the BIAL airport with EBITDA
growing ~2.7 times from Rs 110 crore to Rs 299.2 crore.
For Q4FY10, GVK Power & Infra (GVK) has reported a near ~2.9 fold YoY
growth in topline from Rs 167 crore to Rs 488.6 crore in line with our
expectation. EBITDA margins for the quarters were not comparable owing
to one-off depreciation adjustment conducted at the Jaipur Kishangarh
expressway. PAT margins also witnessed a squeeze owing to additional
interest outflow on account of incremental leverage for infusing
investments for the Bangalore Airport.

Exhibit 2: Financial highlight of GVK Power & Infra

2,000.0
Power & Road segment Consolidated
1,750.0
Growth of ~3.5 fold in topline led by major boost coming
1786.6

from the power segment 1,500.0

1,250.0
Rs Cr

1,000.0
513.8

468.3

750.0
500.0
176.3

155.9
107.6
250.0
0.0
Revenue EBITDA PAT
FY09 FY10
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Financial highlight of power segment

2,000.0
JP - I & II, Gautami
1,750.0
1,500.0
1603.3

Significant growth witnessed owing to capacity addition of

1,250.0
~684 MW in H1FY10 taking the total generation capacity to
Rs Cr

~901 MW 1,000.0
750.0
404.4
355.6

500.0
65.2
63.0

250.0
7.3

0.0
Revenue EBITDA PAT
FY09 FY10
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research

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 GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)

Exhibit 4: Financial highlight of aviation segment - MIAL

943.8

989.7
1,000.0
Cost efficiencies achieved due to a reduction in employee MIAL
900.0
cost coupled with a lower energy cost and economies of 800.0
scale at MIAL have led to a boost in the EBITDA margin 700.0
600.0

Rs Cr
500.0

313.1
400.0

190.1
300.0

132.8
200.0

85.3
100.0
0.0
Revenue EBITDA PAT

FY09 FY10

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 5: Financial highlight of aviation segment - BIAL

464.7
500.0
Significant growth of 37.4% from 7.72 million passengers to BIAL
309.5

299.2
9.92 million passengers has improved the operating matrix
400.0
at BIAL. The airport has witnessed a turnaround in 300.0
profitability by achieving profitability of Rs 77.4 crore

110.1
200.0
Rs Cr

77.4
100.0
0.0
(100.0)

(97.3)
(200.0)
Revenue EBITDA PAT

FY09 FY10

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: Financial highlight of road segment

Jaipur Expressway
170.8

200.0
Robust growth of volumes on the Jaipur toll project has led
145.9

175.0
to an improving performance for the road segment. The
150.0
numbers look muted due to the major maintenance expense
105.6

125.0
carried out by the company and have pulled the bottomline
Rs Cr

down by Rs 64 crore. The company has also altered the 100.0

59.2
53.5

amortisation method on toll rights 75.0

45.1

50.0
25.0
0.0
Revenue EBITDA* PAT

FY09 FY10

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

*EBITDA is adjusted of the major maintenance expense of Rs 64 crore

ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research

Page 3
 GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)

Margins for different vertical

GVK Power has been witnessing strong margins in all of its verticals.
However, owing to regulatory issues the company has been unable to
kick start their merchant operations. This is impacting the margins of their
power vertical. Aviation is witnessing an improvement with cost savings
starting to kick in due to economies of scale. The road segment has
witnessed a sharp correction due to the one-time major maintenance
incurred during the year. However, post the completion of resurfacing
work in FY11 the margins will be restored to historical levels.

Exhibit 7: Trends of margin in several segments

Margins portrays a strong trajectory for GVK Power

100%

72.4%
64.4%
80%
EBITDA Margin

60%

35.6%
34.3%

31.6%

26.4%
26.2%
40%

20.1%
20%

0%
Power Aviation - MIAL Aviation - BIAL Road*

FY09 FY10

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

* EBITDA margins for road segment is post the one time major maintenance reserve

Exhibit 8: Trends in monthly generation at various facilities of GVK

350
300
Million Units (MU)

With the improvement in gas availability from the KG D6 the 250

operating numbers are picking up substantially. The PLFs of 200
plants has improved in excess of 90% ever since the
150
availability of gas has improved
100
50
0
Apr 2008

Mar 2009

Mar 2010
May 2008

Aug 2008

Oct 2008

Apr 2009

Aug 2009

Oct 2009
June 2008

Nov 2008
Dec 2008
Jan 2009

Nov 2009
Dec 2009
Jan 2010
July 2008

Sept 2008

Feb 2009

May 2009
June 2009
July 2009

Sept 2009

Feb 2010

JP-I & II - (437 MW) Gautami - (464 MW)

Source: CEA, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research

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 GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)

Exhibit 9: Growth in passengers for MIAL - Annual

34.0

29.6
27.5
30.0

25.6
Million Passengers

25.9
26.0

23.4
22.2
YoY growth in the passenger traffic has turned positive and
MIAL is expected to reach 29.5 million passengers by FY12E 22.0

18.4
18.0

14.0

10.0
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Passenger traffic (MIAL)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 10: Growth in yearly traffic at JKEL

24,000

20,000

10564
10061
9492
Vehicles per day

16,000

8030
8003
6563
5276

12,000 2405 2453

2358
2819 2438
3369 1304 1343
8,000 3827 1266
1118 1153
1026

8321
7887
917

7303
4,000
6441
5832
FY07 5234
FY06 4434

0
FY08

FY09

FY10E

FY11E

FY12E
Cars LCVs Buses 2 - Axle MAV / 3 - Axle HCM/EME

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Developments during the quarter

GVK Power achieved financial closure for the Goindwal Sahib project, a
540 MW thermal power project in Punjab and has also achieved financial
closure for the Tokisud mine to support the generation at Goindwal
Sahib. The mine is expected to commence production in the next 26
months in line with the projections for commissioning of the thermal
plant. The mine will supply ~2 MT per annum and has a mineable reserve
of 52 MT and is located in Jharkhand.
GVK Power is the preferred bidder for the 690 MW hydropower Rattle
project located on the Chenab river in Jammu and Kashmir. It is expected
to be awarded to GVK power in Q1FY11.
MIAL has inaugurated a new domestic terminal 1C. The terminal is spread
over 3,00,000 square feet across three levels and six new passenger
boarding bridges with connectivity between terminal 1A and 1B.

ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research

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GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)

Outlook & earnings revision

The MIAL revenues are subject to vagueness on the regulatory front. We
expect any framework for calculation of revenues to require at least 12
months. With the acquisition of stake in BIAL, GVK is now controlling
~29% in the fast growing Indian aviation market. The prospects will be
marred by the ambiguity in the computation of returns from the airport
vertical. Real estate monetisation at the Mumbai airport will ease the
funding concerns for MIAL expansion. The process of monetisation is
expected to commence in Q3FY11E.

Valuations
At the CMP of Rs 45, the stock is trading at FY10E P/BV of 2.2x and FY11E
P/BV of 2.0x. We have fine-tuned our earnings for FY11E and FY12E
based on delays in the addition of merchant power and better profitability
from the acquisition of further stake in Gautami. Cost benefit will continue
to trickle down in the financial numbers of the airport segment. Thus, we
continue to maintain our STRONG BUY rating on the stock with an SOTP
based target of Rs 54.

Exhibit 11: SOTP based pricing for GVK power & Infrastructure
Particulars Rs Cr Per Share
Road Segment 846 5
Power & Coal segment 3,588 23
Airport - MIAL 1,350 9
Airport Real estate - MIAL 1,391 9
Airport - BIAL (incl. real estate) 1,171 7
SEZ 108 1
Cash & Cash equivalents 39 0
Total Value 8,493 54

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research

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 GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Power & Infrastructure)

Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
NTPC (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code NTPC CMP 205 FY08 40,017.7 9.0 22.8 16.6 3.1 14.6 15.8
Target 241 FY09 45,272.8 9.9 20.6 17.9 2.8 14.9 13.3
Mcap(Rs cr) 168,867.1 % Upside 17.7 FY10E 49,596.7 10.5 19.5 14.3 2.6 14.5 13.3
FY11E 53,976.0 10.8 18.9 12.7 2.4 13.8 12.2
FY12E 62,773.4 12.3 16.7 10.1 2.2 14.3 12.2
Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
Lanco Infratech (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code LANINF CMP 63 FY08 3,241.3 1.5 42.7 31.6 6.7 21.2 9.3
Target 70 FY09 6,072.0 1.2 53.9 28.9 7.2 14.3 5.8
Mcap(Rs cr) 15,117.1 % Upside 11.9 FY10E 7,580.3 2.1 29.8 18.3 4.6 18.7 6.5
FY11E 14,383.7 5.4 11.6 5.7 3.4 33.5 13.8
FY12E 16,178.2 5.7 11.1 4.9 2.6 26.9 12.2
GMR Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
Infrastructure (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code GMRINF CMP 64 FY08 2,294.7 0.6 110.8 54.8 3.8 3.4 3.0
Target 74 FY09 4,019.2 0.8 83.3 30.9 3.6 4.3 3.2
Mcap(Rs cr) 23,448.5 % Upside 16.0 FY10E 5,374.1 0.0 NA 21.1 3.6 -0.2 3.7
FY11E 6,509.7 0.8 79.4 15.8 3.5 4.4 4.4
FY12E 7,710.4 0.8 82.3 12.3 3.3 4.0 3.9
Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
Neyveli Lignite (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code NEYLIG CMP 153 FY08 2,981.7 6.6 23.0 19.7 2.7 12.8 7.3
Target 141 FY09 2,825.1 5.0 30.2 24.6 2.7 9.1 4.6
Mcap(Rs cr) 21,810.2 % Upside (7.6) FY10E 3,951.3 7.1 21.4 17.2 2.4 11.9 7.2
FY11E 4,826.9 7.7 19.7 12.2 2.3 11.9 7.3
FY12E 5,399.0 7.5 20.3 10.5 2.1 10.7 7.3
Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
PTC (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code POWTRA CMP 114 FY08 3,906.1 2.2 52.7 126.0 1.8 5.6 6.8
Target 136 FY09 6,528.9 3.9 28.9 97.6 1.7 5.9 7.5
Mcap(Rs cr) 3,352.6 % Upside 18.9 FY10E 7,772.3 3.2 35.7 37.1 1.6 5.1 7.2
FY11E 9,976.3 4.4 26.0 23.3 1.5 6.0 8.3
FY12E 10,701.4 7.1 16.1 11.1 1.5 9.3 12.9
GVK Power & Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
Infra (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code GVKPOW CMP 45 FY08 470.0 0.7 61.8 62.2 62.2 7.5 3.8
Target 54 FY09 513.8 0.5 77.1 65.5 2.5 3.4 2.2
Mcap(Rs cr) 6,581.1 % Upside 20.0 FY10E 1,786.6 0.7 63.2 22.7 2.1 4.5 4.8
FY11E 2,073.6 1.4 30.3 15.2 1.9 7.7 6.1
FY12E 2,194.1 1.2 34.7 13.0 1.9 6.5 5.9
Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
NHPC (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code NHPC CMP 31 FY08 2,475.7 0.9 34.5 24.3 2.2 5.9 5.6
Target 39 FY09 2,923.1 1.0 30.7 23.9 2.1 6.4 4.9
Mcap(Rs cr) 37,432.0 % Upside 28.3 FY10E 4,103.9 1.4 21.4 14.5 1.6 8.4 6.6
FY11E 3,634.0 1.0 29.4 16.9 1.5 5.3 4.5
FY12E 4,975.3 1.3 22.7 11.8 1.5 6.7 6.3
Sales EPS PE EV/E PB RoNW RoCE
JP Power (Rs cr) (Rs) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Idirect Code JAIHYD CMP 74 FY08 300.8 1.5 50.1 70.3 3.5 20.9 12.2
Target 72 FY09 296.7 1.2 63.2 70.9 3.4 13.3 11.8
Mcap(Rs cr) 15,487.1 % Upside (2.9) FY10E 704.8 2.0 36.7 29.9 4.6 6.7 10.7
FY11E 724.0 3.9 18.8 29.1 4.3 7.5 5.5
FY12E 2,405.2 4.7 15.8 9.2 3.6 15.1 12.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect.com | Equity Research

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 GVK Power & Infra (GVKPOW)

RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce, and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the
notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: 20% or more;

Buy: Between 10% and 20%;
Add: Up to 10%;
Reduce: Up to -10%
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
7th Floor, Akruti Centre Point,
MIDC Main Road, Marol Naka
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093

research@icicidirect.com

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