CHINA- PAKISTAN- RUSSIA AXIS: THE WORLDS NEW SUPER

POWER AXIS?

ABSTRACT:

The world is coming toward a bipolar world with China, Russia, Pakistan and a number of other
authoritarian countries of Central Asia on one side, and the U.S., EU, Japan and their Asian allies
on the other side and thats not a peaceful nor a promising future, it is a rather chaotic future where
undecided countries such as India, Brazil, Egypt and others will be squeezed between the two
sides. If we take interest in todays geopolitics, we get to know that the relations between Russia
and Pakistan have recently seen a significant warning. It is reasonable to say that the two countries
who were Cold War rivals are getting closer. Meanwhile, China, who is a traditional ally of
Pakistan and has always supported the country against its historical rival India with its militar y
equipment and in the fields of diplomacy, is showing clear signs of forming this new China-Russ ia-
Pakistan triangle, which is likely to lead to the above-described bipolar world. After the Russian
economy had been hit by Western sanctions in the summer of 2014, the Kremlin started to look in
the direction of Asia, particularly Pakistan.

In this paper, common interests of three countries to make an alliance will be discussed. China-
Pakistan- Russia axis in the perspective of CPEC will also be discussed.

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 CHINA- PAKISTAN- RUSSIA AXIS: THE WORLDS NEW SUPER
POWER AXIS IN MAKING?

1. Introduction:

Since the dawn of 21st century drastic changes occurred within the global environment of power
politics and relationships. Nations fractured, insurgencies grew, societies faltered and faiths
challenged, these changes have affected every nation on earth. However, the year 2010 marked the
beginning of the new age. An age of shifting interests and realignment of power relationships. This
matrix of new age gave birth to the strategic partnership of three key power players around whom
which now lies the resolution of many significant regional issues and whose collective politica l
decisions can shape the geopolitical environment for years to come. This prospective triangular
power relationship is between China, Russia and Pakistan, also known as China- Pakistan- Russia
Axis. With Chinas bankrolling and global sway, Russia with its muscular strength and
information warfare and Pakistan with its hard-earned experience on terrorism and geostrategic
location this emerging strategic partnership in the offing have inherent political potential to pull
the strings and call the shots in emerging regional and global political theater.

Erosion of American global leadership, under President Obama, in post-2010 world, has made host
of power players to rethink and reorganize international political order which is progressive ly
shifting from unipolar to multipolar order. Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasian Group, introduced

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the term G-zero to define this reconstitution of world order. In his foreign affairs article, he
asserted: We are now living in a G-Zero world, one in which no single country or bloc of countries
has the political and economic leverage--or the will--to drive a truly international agenda. The
result will be intensified conflict on the international stage over vitally important issues, such as
international macroeconomic coordination, financial regulatory reform, trade policy, and climate
change. This new order has far-reaching implications for the global economy, as companies around
the world sit on enormous stockpiles of cash, waiting for the current era of political and economic
uncertainty to pass. Many of them can expect an extended wait.1

Multi-polarity on the global stage has its natural influence on the Asian political order. A region
of multi faith, multiethnic and multi culture composition, Asia is uniquely situated to excavate
tremendous benefits from this international shift from westward to eastward. Although greater
importance has been attached to Asia-Pacific region, the East and Southeast Asia are equivocally
significant because both regions Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific are geopolitically inextricable.

Chinas colossal strategic investment in One Belt, One Road economic initiative, Russias
Eurasian Economic Union and its prospective connectivity with OBOR and Pakistans geostrategic
location are among the key factors that will define the emerging triangular power relation between
the three.

2. Historical Background:

Historically, Pakistan and China, both countries have placed considerable importance on the
maintenance of an extremely close and supportive relationship and the two countries have
regularly exchanged high-level visits resulting in a variety of agreements. The PRC has provided
economic, military and technical assistance to Pakistan and each considers the other a close
strategic ally. ChinaPakistan relations began in 1950 when Pakistan was among the first countries
to end official diplomatic relations with the Republic of China on Taiwan and recognize the PRC.
Pakistan also helped China to start diplomatic relations with USA in 1970s. The two countries
enjoy an all weather friendship.

1 Synchronization of Interests: Emerging Strategic Partnerships between China, Russia and Pakistan in a Brave New
World (15 th February, 2017), by Hassan Zaheer, Center for Strategic and Contemporary research (CSCR). Retrieved
from http://cscr.pk/briefs/research-brief/synchronization-interests-emerging-strategic-partnerships-china-russia-
pakistan-brave-new-world/

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On the other hand, Pakistan and Russias relations went through many ups and downs during cold
war. Right after independence of Pakistan in 1947, Russia enjoyed relatively healthy and strong
relations with Pakistan when it was under the civilian control but the relations went ultimately cold
soon after the U.S.-backed 1958 military coup. Especially after 1960 U2 incident, the relations
went really bitter and Nikita Khrushchev, the then Russian President made a statement:

Do not play with Fire, Gentlemen. We have "Red marked" Peshawar on the map of
Pakistan. 2

In response to ongoing Soviet support to communist Afghanista n regarding the Durand Line issue
during the late 1970s and 1980s, Pakistan began to support Mujahedeen rebels attempting to
overthrow the Soviet-backed communist regime and was later aided by the United States, United
Kingdom, China and Saudi Arabia. This later led to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

In recent years ties between Russia and Pakistan have warmed as a counter measure to warming
ties between India and the United States, the two countries carried out their first ever joint militar y
drills in 2016 despite Indian requests to postpone due to Uri attack. Pakistan and Russia signed an
agreement for the North-South gas pipeline from Lahore to Karachi, and reached a price accord
by December 2016. Pakistan has also granted Russia access to a warm water port in the Arabian
Sea Gwadar Port.

China and Russia who enjoy good relations now a days did not have good relations during most
of cold war. China and the USSR were at sword's point after the Sino-Soviet split in 1961. They
were competing for control of the worldwide Communist movement. There was a serious
possibility of a major war in the early 1960s; a brief border war took place in 1969. This enmity
began to lessen after the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, but relations were poor until the fall of the
Soviet Union in 1991.

Sino-Russian rapprochement accelerated after the USSR was superseded by the Russian
Federation in 1991. In 2001, the close relations between the two countries were formalized with
the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, a twenty-year strategic, economic,
and controversially and arguably an implicit military treaty. A month before the treaty was

2Cultural Relations Between Pakistan and the Soviet Union During Ayub Khan's Period (2011) by M. Iqbal, Falak
Sher, Rehmat Ullah Awan, Khalid Javed , Pakistaniaat: A Journal of Pakistan Studies .

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signed, the two countries joined with junior partners Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The organization is expected to
counter the growing influence of the United States military outreach program in Central Asia.

The relations between China and Russia are currently close and cordial. They maintain a strong
geopolitical and regional alliance, and significant levels of trade. 3

3. China- Pakistan- Russia Axis: Shifting of Regional Realities/ Alliances

In geopolitics, strategic realities can change with surprising speed, and even before countries
realize it decisive shifts occur that shape the future for the years to come. That seems to be the case
with traditional Cold War rivals Russia and Pakistan, which have of late seen a gradual warming
of ties. Traditionally an ally of India and hitherto supportive of Indias stance on Kashmir, Russia
has shown clear signs of cozying up to Pakistan.

Having earlier lifted its self-imposed arms embargo on Pakistan, in November 2014 Russia signed
a landmark military cooperation agreement with Pakistan, which spoke about exchanging
information on politico- military issues, strengthening collaboration in the defense and counter -
terrorism sectors, sharing similar views on developments in Afghanistan and doing business with
each other. Additionally, Russia has been selling military hardware to Pakistan. It is believed that
the two nations are in discussions regarding the possible sale of Russian Su-35 warplanes to
Pakistan. Pakistan also bought four Mi-35 helicopter gunships from Russia in 2015. It is reported
that over the last fifteen months, the army, navy and air force chiefs of Pakistan have visited Russia
to explore other such military deals. Given the fact that Pakistan is the worlds seventh largest
importer of defense equipment, it could prove to be a lucrative market for Russian arms
manufacturers. This can have serious consequences for India-Russia relations.

The mutual overtures between Russia and Pakistan are part of a greater shift in internatio na l
relations. In Europe, Russia is embroiled in a showdown with the West over Ukraine, with
Moscows military adventure in Crimea being followed by Western sanctions. In the Asia-Pacific,
Chinas encroachments in the South China Sea has inflamed tensions with other Asia-Pacific
countries allied with the U.S. These developments have forced Russia and China to look for allies,

3China and Russia (Oct, 1990) by Josiah Quincy, The North American Review, Vol. 171, No. 527, pp. 528-542.
Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org

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which explains the bonhomie between the two powers of late. Some analysts question whether a
partnership motivated by external factors could lead to an alliance of countries that formerly
distrusted each other. But the old adage the enemy of my enemy is my friend fits perfectly well
here; the single most important factor that overrides all others is their concurrent perception of the
U.S. and its policy of containment towards them. China needs allies to change the world order
and it begins with Asia.

The China-Pakistan link is well known and is the most formidable leg of the Russia-China-
Pakistan triangle. China has been a traditional ally of Pakistan and has historically supported it
against its arch rival India both in terms of military equipment and diplomacy. Chinese have been
involved in building nuclear reactors for Pakistan; Pakistan is the largest importer of Chinese
manufactured defense equipment, is involved in co-production and co-development of JF-17
fighter jets and now is slated to buy almost eight Chineses S20 or Yuan-class diesel-electr ic
submarines (SSK). China has also significantly invested in Pakistans Gwadar Port and in the
Karakoram corridor. The imperative here is not just for China but for Pakistan as well. The growing
relationship between the U.S. and India, with their extensive trade ties and cooperation on strategic
issues of mutual concern in the sphere of defense technology and equipment, does threaten
Pakistan from time to time. 4

4. Interest based Axis:

It is from here that the congruence of interests between the three states of Pakistan, China and
Russia stems. For China and Russia, the U.S. is an anathema, which must dethroned from its
hegemonic position for their own security. Pakistan has enough of an incentive to be a willing
partner in an Asian security architecture that is shaped by China. With India having diversified its
military suppliers to include countries like the U.S. and Israel, Russia no longer sees any obstacle
to establishing a strategic relationship with Pakistan. In the future one could see signs of integratio n
between the three states, as their abilities complement each other: Russia is an alternate source for
Western military technology and energy supplier, China is economically more potent than the
other two, with considerable foreign exchange reserves looking to invest and in need of energy

4Pakistan, Russia and China: An Emerging Coalition? (2016), by Aisha Saeed, Center for Strategic and
Contemporary Research. Retrieved from http://cscr.pk/analysis-and-opinions/pakistan-russia-china-emerging-
coalition/

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supplies, Pakistan despite its structural problems is a growing economy with young population in
need of both of both energy supplies and defense equipment. Already importing equipment from
China, Pakistan will have access to Russian technology, which was in fact the source for many
Chinese products as well. Sanctions-hit Russia will have a new market for its defense equipment,
although this may well in the future see some competition between Russia and China. It is possible
that Russia will continue to arm India along with China and now Pakistan. Both EU and US have
followed the strategy of supplying defense equipment to both India and Pakistan. But Russia
arming Pakistan is still significant because that implies that Russia will no longer give preferentia l
treatment to its historical friend India.

It is true India is still economically too big to be overlooked and Russia has an interest in preserving
its relationship with India. But India has estranged security ties with China and Pakistan, and with
Russia drawing ever closer to China, its divergence of interest with India in the world order it
perceives is growing more apparent. The Russia-Pakistan-China trio is a reality in the offing and
has a far greater convergence of security objectives in Asia than a similar Russia-China-I nd ia
grouping (also subsumed within BRICS). It is important to note here that the Chinese economy is
visibly slowing and this could lead to some internal turmoil, the Russian economy may very well
see further contraction, while that of Pakistan, albeit showing signs of improvement, is external
aid dependent and beset by internal security concerns. Aggression on the part of this triumvirate
to deflect attention from internal problems cannot be ruled out. The strategic ramifications will be
for India as much as they will be the U.S. and other countries in the region. As the contours of the
alliances in Asia harden, India will have to shed its reluctance to take a firmer stand in Asia and
work more closely with the U.S. and Japan.

5. CPEC: China, Pakistan and Russia bringing multipolar world order:

With CPEC, China, Pakistan and Russia are bringing multipolar world order to challenge the U.S.-
dominated unipolar world order. No world order is able to withstand the test of time. Washingto n
has controlled the rest of the world for quite a while, so the emergence of a powerful alliance
between China and Pakistan with Russia added into the equation challenges U.S. global
dominance and aims to bring multipolar world order.

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Beijing and Islamabad used the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a net to catch a
giant and elusive butterfly: the U.S. and its global dominance. Through CPEC, which promises to
help Pakistan emerge as a major power in Asia within the coming years, China wants to connect
Europe, the Arab countries and Africa with the Russia- and China-dominated Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), something that would start a new era for Eurasia and the world
as a whole. 5

Russias joining of CPEC will be an opportunity for China, Russia and Pakistan to enhance
cooperation, Chinese Tabloid Global Times said in a report.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as a flagship project of the One Belt and One
Road (OBOR) initiative, has drawn a great deal of investments. Pakistan has already approved a
Russian request for using the Gwadar Port, for its exports.

Whats more, Russia as Chinas strategic partner, a member of BRICS and the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) has been advancing the Sino-Russian the Belt and the Union
(the Silk Road Economic Belt and the EAEU) and a broader Eurasian partnership. Russias
participation in the CPEC, including the use of the Gwadar Port, could give a boost to Sino-Russia n
cooperation and be a demonstration project of OBOR that will enhance future multinatio na l
cooperation, the newspaper argued.

Second, Russia and Pakistan are both friendly toward China. Pakistan has officially become the
member of this organization.

As for Russia-Pakistan relations and Russias role in the CPEC, China is considered as a
stakeholder in the affairs and has certain influences. But China will not intervene in Russia-
Pakistan relations.

In addition, Pakistan follows the balance of power theory and conducts open diplomacy in a bid to
maximize its national interests, which is beyond reproach. The Gwadar Port can also be used by
countries like Iran and Turkmenistan for trade.

5CPEC: China, Pakistan and Russia Bringing Multipolar World Order (2017), by Polina Tikhonova, Valuewalk
Corporation. Retrieved from http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/cpec-china-pakistan-russia-multipolar-world-
order/

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Given the prevailing globalization and regional integration, it is not possible, realistic or necessary,
for any country to monopolize one countrys economic affairs.

Third, India has been opposed to the CPEC due to the long-term tension between New Delhi and
Islamabad, and its historical border disputes with China. Traditionally, Russia has developed a
very good relationship with India, as well as China and Pakistan.

Russias presence in the CPEC would help prevent the international community, including India,
from paying excessive attention to China and remove the unnecessary worries over the so-called
China threat. The cooperation between BRICS countries like China, Russia and India is the key to
the success of OBOR development, the newspaper emphasized.

Russias involvement in the CPEC is to serve its own interests in economy and geopolitics, which
may complicate regional affairs. But if all parties stick to the market rules, Chinas interests
wouldnt be harmed given that China has gained first-mover advantage, as well as capital and
geographic advantages.

If Russia joins the project, it will be a stakeholder which shares economic risk, especially security
risk, and has the same or similar goals. 6

6. Will Russia-China-Pakistan axis leave India out of Afghanistan?

There has been another dramatic twist in the seemingly never-ending Afghanistan saga. In
December 2016, Russia hosted representatives of China and Pakistan to discuss developments in
Afghanistan and the three agreed upon a flexible approach to remove certain (Taliban) figures
from (United Nations) sanctions lists as part of efforts to foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul
and the Taliban movement. The three states underscored their concern about the rising activity
in the country (Afghanistan) of extremist groups, including the Afghan branch of ISIS (the Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria) and underlined that the Taliban was a necessary bulwark in the global
fight against the ISIS. The Taliban obviously welcomed the move. It is joyous to see that the
regional countries have also understood that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a political and
military force, a statement, issued on their behalf, said.

6Russias joining of CPEC to enhance China, Russia and Pakistan cooperation (7 th January, 2017), Pakistan Today.
Retrieved from https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/01/07/russias-joining-of-cpec-to-enhance-china-russia-
and-pakistan-cooperation/

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The proposal forwarded in the Moscow three-party of delisting members of the Islamic Emirate is
a positive step forward in bringing peace and security to Afghanistan.

Afghanistan seems to be becoming another front in Russias attempt to undermine the West and
in particular American geopolitical interests. Maintained by its seeming success in Syria, Russia
now views itself as the vanguard of the global challenge to the West. Not surprisingly, the US
military views this sudden endorsement of the Taliban by Russia as an attempt to undermine
NATO military efforts in Afghanistan. The Afghan government too has reacted strongly against
Russian attempts to bolster Talibans credibility.

The Afghan forces are fighting a tough battle against the Taliban with western help. After declaring
that the US combat mission in Afghanistan had ended, Barack Obama had to revisit his decision
based on ground realities. He decided to send around 300 soldiers of the US Marine Corps back to
Afghanistan as advisors, two years after leaving the country as combatants. There are still around
10,000 American troops in Afghanistan, a significantly higher number compared to the 5,000
Obama had envisioned on the campaign trail in an effort to scale back Washingtons ground forces.
The security situation in Afghanistan remains precarious. Earlier in January, more than 50 people
were killed and 80 wounded in twin bombings near the Afghan parliament in Kabul, for which the
Taliban claimed responsibility. Repeated bids to launch peace negotiations with the Taliban have
failed and a fierce new fighting season is expected to kick off in the spring. With President Ashraf
Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah, at opposition with each other, the Afghan government too is
facing a serious political crisis.

Amidst its deteriorating ties with the West, it has started warming up to the Taliban. It is now
arguing that Afghanistan could become a safe haven for the ISIS, from where it would be able to
pose a serious threat to Russian hinterland. China too remains worried about the impact of growing
ISIS threat in its Xinjiang province. And both of them have found in Pakistan an important
interlocutor who could perhaps manage the Taliban in a way that it would be a force against the
ISIS.7

7 Russia, China and Pakistan for fl exible ties with Taliban, India ignored (29 th December 2016), by Indrani Bagchi.
The Times of India. Retrieved from http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/russia-china-and-pakistan-for-
flexible-ties-with-taliban-india-ignored/articleshow/56228906.cms

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Russias change of heart comes after helping the Afghan military by supplying helicopters and
also agreeing to a supply route for coalition materials through Russia. But that cooperation is a
thing of the past as contacts between Moscow and the Taliban have surged in recent years to an
extent where the two have also shared intelligence about the ISIS. For Russia, the Taliban is a local
nuisance and has given up the idea of global jihad, whereas the ISIS are the global jihadists. Zamir
Kabulov, Vladimir Putins special representative for Afghanistan, has suggested that in so far as
fighting the ISIS is concerned, the Taliban interest objectively coincides with ours.

Russias warming up to Pakistan is part of this broader shift in Moscows foreign policy. The two
held their first ever joint military exercise in September 2016 and their first-ever bilateral
consultation on regional issues in December. After officially lifting an arms embargo against
Pakistan in 2014, Pakistans military will be receiving four Russian-made Mi-35M attack
helicopters in 2017. It is also likely that China-backed CPEC might be merged with Russia-backed
Eurasian Economic Union. China has found a new ally in Russia which is keen to work with China,
even as a junior partner, to scuttle western interests.

Russia has an interest in hyping the threat from the ISIS in Afghanistan and it is doing so rather
effectively. The Taliban remain the most potent threat to the future of Afghanistan as everyday
bombings in the country attest to. Russia feels this is the right moment to insert itself in the region
and derail whatever little progress that has been made towards stabilizing Afghanistan.

As Russia works with China and Pakistan to engage the Taliban, abandoning its historic enmity to
the group, India might find itself regionally isolated. The Afghan government is too weak to assert
its primacy in the process. And given Trumps soft corner for Russia, if he decides to buy into the
Russian argument, then Indias Afghan policy will once again be at a crossroads.8

8 Will Russia-China-Pakistan axis leave India out of Afghanistan? (16 th January, 2017), by Harsh V. Pant, Observer
Research Foundation. Retrieved from http://www.orfonline.org/research/will -russia-china-pakistan-axis-leave-
india-afghanistan/

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 7. Conclusion:

The international political structure is at the apex of transformation. Previously, an improbable

combination of Pakistan, Russia and China is now changing into a powerful realignment either
intended to bring a greater bipolarity in the world affairs or to challenge the hegemonic power of
the US in the world. Strategic dimensions in the geopolitical world change at an astonishing speed,
sometimes without the states knowing the repercussions it brings in the coming years. The same
situation now seems to take place between the Cold war rivals Pakistan and Russia. Russia, being
a traditional ally of India which reassured Indias stance on Kashmir every time is now showing
evident indications of getting into closer relationships with Pakistan. Just when the China decline d
the international tribunals verdict over its claim on South China Sea, Russia declared to support
China along with holding the joint naval exercises in the disputed sea. Moreover, Russia is
boosting its military ties with Pakistan by carrying out joint military drills in September 2016 in
Pakistan which was joined by some 200 soldiers of Russian army. China and Russian have been a
long time strategic partners mainly because of their ideological clashes with the United States who
became a common enemy to both the countries. For this reason Russia and China try to dwindle
the US influence in their corresponding regions. The ingression of Pakistan in this matrix is
sending out clear signs of fledgling friendship.

The apparent strategic interest of Russia behind the Russia-Pakistan-China axis seems to be for
Moscows interest in getting more room for the advancement of its pivotal role than only re-
balancing the region. Assessing the current political environment suggests that Moscow is not only
hankering to counter the US supremacy in the region but also wants to dislodge the Chinas status
as the major countervailing force in the region.

Contrary to the Americans, who always preach morals to the Eastern allies on almost everything
from theological freedom to the democratic norms, Russia keeps aside the morality and its
perception in the international politics while focusing on achieving its strategic interests. This
became apparent in Russias recent military dill exercise with Pakistan despite Indias requests to
stop the drills following the Uri terror attacks for which Pakistan was blamed while Islamabad
denied these accusations.

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As India took its traditional ally Russia for granted for a longer period of time, Moscow observed
the growing ties of India with US patiently.

In order to avoid international isolation, Pakistan has invited Russia to participate in the China -
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to promote the expanding interaction within the axis. The
Pakistan-Russia Rapprochement and their common bonding with China, in many ways, reiterates
the Liaquat Ali Khans time and again repeated statement of 1949 that:

Pakistan cannot afford to wait. She must take her friends where she finds them.

This statement at that time was intended to appease Moscow when Pakistan was dissatisfied with
the Washingtons favourable inclinations towards Jawaharlal Nehru. The circumstances seems to
have changed wholly as Pakistan confronts a similar strategic conditions now.

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