Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Highlights Contents
Tables
Cost break up of bituminous layers 3
Cost break up across layers 3
Cost components of DLC 4
Cost components of PQC 4
Cost break up across layers 5
Cost break up in flexible pavement 5
Cost break up in rigid pavement 5
Cement roads vs bituminous roads 8
Assumptions for typical stretch 8
CRISIL Research's estimates on completion 10
NHDP: Status as on December 31, 2009 11
NHDP projects awarded in 2009-10 (As on January 2010) 13
This document has been prepared by Anshal Chavan, Rahul Prithiani and Sudhir K Nair
January 2010 (Head of Research). For any queries, please get in touch with our client servicing desk.
(clientservicing@crisil.com; Phone: 022-33423561)
Industry Information Service
Industry Information Service presents a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the current trends and the long-term
performance outlook on 47 industries in India. It covers the evolution of an industry, the regulatory environment, cost
structures and the extent of competition. It also provides the key success factors and an analysis of the global trends along with
statistical information on capacities, production, imports-exports, domestic and international prices, and consumption patterns
and player profiles. The parameters are updated on an annual and monthly basis.
CRISIL offers domestic and international customers a unique combination of local insights and global perspectives, delivering
independent information, opinions and solutions that help them make better informed business and investment decisions,
improve the efficiency of markets and market participants, and help shape infrastructure policy and projects. Its integrated range
of capabilities includes credit ratings and risk assessment; research on India's economy, industries and companies; global
equity research; fund services; risk management and infrastructure advisory services.
Disclaimer
CRISIL Research, a Division of CRISIL Limited has taken due care and caution in preparing this Report. Information has been
obtained by CRISIL from sources which it considers reliable. However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or
completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of
such information. CRISIL is not liable for investment decisions which may be based on the views expressed in this Report.
CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this
Report. CRISIL Research operates independently of, and does not have access to information obtained by CRISILs Ratings
Division, which may, in its regular operations, obtain information of a confidential nature which is not available to CRISIL
Research. No part of this Report may be published/reproduced in any form without CRISILs prior written approval.
Executive summary
Cost differential between bituminous and cement pavement expected to reduce
The prices of bitumen and cement are the main cost differential parameters between bituminous and cement
pavement. Due to the lower appreciation in cement prices vis--vis bitumen prices, the cost of a bituminous
pavement increased at a CAGR of 13 per cent, from Rs 24.9 million in 2006-07 to Rs 31.6 million in 2008-09,
whereas the cost of a cement pavement during the same period registered a CAGR of 9 per cent, from Rs 30.2
million to Rs 35.9 million. Consequently, from 2006-07 to 2008-09, the gap between the cost of a bituminous
pavement and cement pavement decreased from 21 per cent to 14 per cent.
Over the next 5 years (2009-10 to 2013-14), this cost differential is expected to contract further from 18 per cent
to 9 per cent due to the decline in cement prices and appreciation in bitumen prices. As a result, the cost of a
bituminous pavement during this period will rise at a CAGR of 7 per cent, from Rs 32.4 million to Rs 41.8
million, while that of a cement pavement will increase at a CAGR of 5 per cent, from Rs 38.3 million to Rs 45.8
million.
The delay in awarding projects is due to the frequent changes in the Model Concession Agreement (MCA) and
bidding policy, and the time taken in the implementation of these policies. Hence, in line with our previous
estimates, CRISIL Research expects a total of 3,400 km under NHDP to be awarded by the end of 2009-10, with
the remaining 1,400 km likely to be awarded in the last quarter of 2009-10. This estimate is based on projects for
which L1 bidders have been announced. Also, the resolution of policy issues would expedite awarding in the
second half of 2009-10.
Roadw ay
Width Bituminous Concrete (BC)
Subgrade
Earth w ork
1. Earthwork
2. Granular sub-base (GSB)
3. Wet mix macadam (WMM)
4. Dense bituminous macadam (DBM)
5. Bituminous concrete (BC)
Earthwork
Earthwork involves excavation and disposal of materials necessary for the construction of a pavement. It forms
the bottom layer of a flexible pavement. The depth of the earthwork activity could vary from 200-500 mm.
Materials used in leveling the ground surface are aggregates (soil, rocks and clays), which constitute 60 per cent
of the total cost of the layer. Other costs include labour and miscellaneous costs.
Granular sub-base
The GSB layer is laid after the earthwork activity. It consists of laying and compacting aggregates such as stones,
soil, sand, small size metals, etc. The thickness of this layer varies as per the design of the pavement. However,
for our analysis we have considered a thickness of 200 mm. The price of this layer could vary from Rs 4,000-
5,000 per cubic metre. Out of the total cost involved in this layer, 80 per cent constitutes aggregate cost, 10 per
cent labour cost and 10 per cent hiring charges.
Bituminous layers
Bituminous layers comprise DBM and BC. DBM is the top-most layer in a flexible pavement. DBM comprises
coarse aggregates and bitumen while BC consists of fine aggregates and bitumen. The proportion of bitumen is
more in BC than in the DBM layer. The thickness of both layers vary from 50-200 mm, depending upon the
design of the pavement. Cost of both layers range between Rs 1,000-3,000 per cubic metre.
Table 1: Cost break up of bituminous layers Table 2: Cost break up across layers
Components % of layer cost Components % of pavement cost
Bitumen cost 38% Bituminous layers (BC+ DBM) 65%
Aggregate cost 25% WMM 18%
Labour cost 13% Sub grade + embankment 17%
Hiring charges 13% Total 100%
Others 13%
Source: CRISIL Research, Industry sources
Total 100%
The high cost of bitumen in the bituminous layers (BC and DBM) of a flexible pavement makes the layer costlier
than layers such as WMM and GSB. Bitumen cost contributes around 38 per cent of total cost of bituminous
layers (BC and DBM). As a result, BC and DBM comprises around 65 per cent to the total cost of the flexible
pavement while WMM and GSB contribute 18 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.
Roadw ay
Width Pavement Quality Concrete(PQC)
Carriagew ay Dry Lean Concrete (DLC)
Subgrade
Earth w ork
1. Earthwork
2. GSB
3. Dry lean concrete (DLC)
4. Pavement quality concrete (PQC)
The composition of the bottom two layers, i.e. earthwork and GSB, in a rigid pavement is the same as in a flexible
pavement. Also, the proportion of various cost components involved in the two layers in a rigid pavement is the
same as in a flexible pavement.
As the construction of DLC pavement requires sophisticated technology and equipment, hiring charges is the main
cost component. It is followed by labour cost, contributing 25 per cent to the cost of DLC. Cement and aggregate
costs contribute 20 per cent each to the cost of a DLC layer.
In the PQC layer, the main cost component is cement, as the proportion of cement used in PQC is more than the
proportion used in DLC. Cement cost constitutes 40 per cent to the total cost of the PQC layer followed by
aggregate cost.
Table 6 : Cost break up in flexible pavement Table 7: Cost break up in rigid pavement
Components % of pavement cost Components % of pavement cost
Labour cost 14% Labour cost 17%
Bitumen cost 24% Cement cost 33%
Aggregate cost 40% Aggregate cost 40%
Hiring charges 9% Hiring charges 7%
Others 13% Others 3%
Total 100% Total 100%
Source: CRISIL Research, Industry sources Source: CRISIL Research, Industry sources
Bitumen and cement costs main components driving the cost differential in both pavement
types
Bitumen cost and cement cost are the main components driving the cost differential between a flexible pavement
and rigid pavement, as aggregate cost is relatively similar in both types of pavements. The cost of bitumen
contributes 24 per cent to the total cost of a flexible pavement, and cement cost contributes 33 per cent to the total
cost of a rigid pavement. The cost of bitumen and cement in both pavement types are in turn driven by bitumen
and cement prices. The cost of aggregates contributes 40 per cent to the total cost of a flexible pavement as well as
a rigid pavement. The cost of aggregates in both pavements is primarily dependent on the cost and location of the
quarry. Labour cost, as a percentage of total cost, is higher in the case of a rigid pavement since its construction
involves skilled labour. Other costs such as hiring and miscellaneous costs are higher in the case of a flexible
pavement.
Figure 1: Trend in cement and bitumen prices Figure 2: Movement of pavement cost
(cost per km)
50 38
35.9
36
40 33.9
34
(Rs million)
31.6
30 32
(growth %)
30.2
30
20 27.9
28 9%
26 24.9 13%
10
24
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
0
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
25
(cost differential %)
20
15
10
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Cost differential between flexible and rigid pavement contracts in the last 3 years
Over the last 3 years, the growth in cement prices has been slower than bitumen prices. The rise in cement prices
decelerated from 25 per cent in 2006-07 to 3 per cent in 2008-09, while bitumen prices increased by 47 per cent in
2006-07 and 35 per cent in 2008-09. Consequently, during the same period, the cost of a bituminous pavement
rose at a CAGR of 13 per cent, from Rs 24.9 million per km to Rs 31.6 million per km, whereas that of a cement
pavement increased at a CAGR of 9 per cent, from Rs 30.2 million per km to Rs 35.9 million per km. As a result,
the cost differential between a flexible and rigid pavement declined from 21 per cent in 2006-07 to 14 per cent in
2008-09.
Figure 4: Trend in cement and bitumen prices Figure 5: Movement of pavement cost
(cost per km)
12
45.8
10 46
8 43.0
6
41.8
(growth %)
42 40.4
4
(Rs million)
39.4 39.1
2 38.3
38 37.2
0
34.9 7% 5%
-2
-4 34 32.4
-6
-8
30
-10
2009-10P
2010-11P
2011-12P
2012-13P
2013-14P
2009-10P
2010-11P
2011-12P
2012-13P
2013-14P
2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013-
10P 11P 12P 13P 14P 10P 11P 12P 13P 14P
P: Projected P: Projected
Source: CRISIL Research Source: CRISIL Research
20
(cost differential %)
16
12
8
2009-10P 2010-11P 2011-12P 2012-13P 2013-14P
P: Projected
Source: CRISIL Research
Cost differential between flexible and rigid pavement is expected to reduce further over the
next 5 years
Cement prices are expected to be under pressure over the next 5 years. Prices are expected to decline over the next
3 years, followed by a 5 per cent growth, while bitumen prices are likely to grow by 3 per cent over the next 5
years. The movement in cement and bitumen prices over the next 5 years would also impact the cost of
bituminous and cement pavements. The cost of bituminous pavement is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7
per cent, from Rs 32.4 million per km in 2009-10 to 41.8 million per km in 2013-14, while that of a cement
pavement is likely to register a CAGR of 5 per cent, from Rs 38.3 million per km to Rs 45.8 million per km.
Hence, the decline in cost differential between a flexible and rigid pavement is expected to contract further, from
18 per cent in 2009-10 to 9 per cent in 2013-14.
Sensitivity analysis between cost of structures and difference in IRRs of bituminous road
and cement road
For a national highway, the cost of a stretch is broadly split into two components: cost of pavement and cost of
structures (bridges, bypasses, underpasses and culverts). On account of the increase in traffic congestion and
higher focus on safety, new stretches are likely to have more number of structures. As a result, structures are
expected to have a higher share in the overall project cost mix. Further, the cost of structures is higher than the
cost of a pavement for most recently awarded stretches.
Figure 7: Change in structure cost and its Table 9: Assumptions for typical stretch
impact on the IRRs differential
0.6
Length of stretch: 50 km
0.5
Bituminous road
0.5
Cost pf pavement per km: 32.4 million
O&M costs
IRR differential (%)
0.4
Routine maintenance: 0.6 million per km
0.4
Periodic maintenance: 1.5 million per km
0.3
Cement road
0.3
Cost of pavement per km: 38.3 million
0.2
O&M costs
0.2
Routine maintenance: Nil
0.1
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Periodic maintenance: Nil
(Rs million) Source: CRISIL Research
At the current cost of a rigid and flexible pavement, the difference between equity IRRs of a bituminous road and
a cement road is 0.5 per cent, in favour of bituminous road. As per a sensitivity analysis, keeping variables like
cost of a bituminous and cement pavement, operating and maintenance cost, and length of stretch constant, the
difference in equity IRRs declines as the cost of structures increases in both roads. The difference in the IRRs of a
bituminous road and cement road shrinks from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent, as the cost of structures increase from
Rs 1,000 million to Rs 3,500 million.
Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV
Phase V Phase VI Phase VII Others Phase V Phase VI Phase VII Others
P: Projected P: Projected
Source: CRISIL Research Source: CRISIL Research
CRISIL Research expects 3,400 km under the NHDP to be awarded in 2009-10, which is in line with our previous
estimates. Till January 2010, 2,002 km were awarded under NHDP with the balance 1,400 km expected to be
awarded in the last quarter of 2009-10. This projection is based on projects which have already been awarded and
Going forward, in 2010-11, we expect 4,000 km of stretches under the NHDP to be awarded, taking into account
the recent pick-up in momentum in awarding of projects. Over the next 5 years (2009-10 to 2013-14), CRISIL
Research estimates the completion of around 18,000 km under the NHDP at an estimated investment of Rs 1,904
billion.
In Phase II, 63 per cent of the length was completed till December 31, 2009. We expect this phase to be completed
by 2014-15 as 26 per cent of the length is under implementation with 637 km yet to be awarded. As on December
31, 2009, only 10 per cent of the total length has been completed in Phase III with 7,749 km yet to be awarded.
CRISIL Research expects this phase to be completed only by 2016-17 due to the considerable lag in awarding of
projects.
The length completed under Phase V as on December 31, 2009 is a mere 2 per cent of the total length, with 5,466
km still to be awarded. We expect bulk of the completion under this phase by 2016-17 as 84 per cent of the work
under this phase has still to be awarded.
Bengaluru www.crisil.com
W-101, Sunrise Chambers
22, Ulsoor Road
Bengaluru - 560 042, India.
Phone +91 (80) 4117 0622
Fax +91 (80) 2559 4801
E-mail: research@crisil.com