The Bet What is the Carrying Capacity of the Earth

Student Worksheet

Introduction

Based on the world demographic profile, we have seen human population continues to grow
so that we can expect a growth of around 2 billion more people in the next 50 years with a
leveling off in population growth likely to produce a near stable population of about 10
million by the close of this century. Will the Earth be able to provide sufficient resources to
support that growth on top of an already large 7 billion people? What is the carrying capacity
of the Earth? If we know that, then perhaps the necessary planning and negotiating to
establish worldwide environmental and energy policies would be easier to accomplish.

Unfortunately, the true carrying capacity of the Earth remains an unknown. In the 1970s
Paul Erlich suggested a relationship between environmental impact (I), human population (P)
and the affluence of that population (A). An additional factor, technology (T) was added to
account for the rapid changes in technology that might both decrease and increase
environmental impacts. The resulting equation was expressed as:

I=P A T

The equation format suggests more of a quantitative relationship between these factors than
has been established and few researchers have found that simple multiplication can be used
to evaluate environmental impacts. For example, simply adding to population does not
necessarily have a multiplicative impact on the environment even after the relative affluence
of the added population has been taken into account. However, the IPAT equation, as it is
often called, has been helpful as a tool for broadly evaluating the impacts of increasing
population and changing affluence.

In 1968, Paul Erlich, who first introduced the IPAT equation, wrote a book called The
Population Bomb that predicted a terrible shortage, starvation and collapse if population
continued to rise. Julian Simon, an economist, was quite skeptical of Erlichs black view of the
future. Based on his work as an economist, Simon thought that the combination of human
inventiveness and effective economic markets would lead to imaginative solutions saving
humans from starvation and collapse even in the face of shortage essentially arguing that
the carrying capacity of the Earth, for clever humans, at least, was infinite.

To bring attention to his views, Julian publicly challenged Erlich to a bet. To find out more
about the bet and how it all came out, listen to (or read) the following descriptions of the bet.

A Bet, five metals and the future of The Planet, by David Kestenbaum on All Things
Considered, January 2, 2014.
Created by The North Carolina School of Science and Math.
Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
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 http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/12/31/258687278/a-bet-five-metals-and-
the-future-of-the-planet

Betting on the Apocalypse, by Paul Sabin in the New York Times, September 7, 2013.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/08/opinion/sunday/betting-on-the-
apocalypse.html?_r=0

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Questions based on the reading assignment

1. What was the bet based on?

The bet between Erlich and Simon was based on if the prices of five precious metals would
go up or down. The idea was that if the prices of these metals went up, we would be
running out of these materials, population growth would be catastrophic, and Erlich would
be right.

2. Why do you think Erlich and his colleagues chose those items to bet on? Why did they
think the price of those items would go up over a 10-year period?
I think Erlich and his colleagues chose these metals because these items best represented
the essential materials of the world such as electronics, cars, and buildings, and more
people on the planet would mean less of these and higher prices.

3. Are the items they chose to bet on essential to life?

The items they chose to bet on were essential to life, because they made up a variety of
products that humans use in mass consumption.

4. Use this site http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ to check the price history of the

commodities that were used in this bet in more recent times. List each of the commodities,
their price 10 years ago and their price today.
Chromium- (10 years ago- $2 per kg, Today- $1.97 per kg)
Copper- (10 years ago- $5,718.15, Today- $5,754.56)
Nickel- (10 years ago- $41,078.25, Today- $9,971.46)
Tin- (10 years ago- $12,890.20 , Today- $20,691.79)
Tungsten- (10 years ago- $33.01 per kg , Today- $25.05 per kg)

Created by The North Carolina School of Science and Math.

Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
2
 5. Who would have won the bet if the 10-year period that was chosen ended today?
If the 10 year period was chosen today Erlich would win, because the prices of some of the
metals such as Nickel, experience drastic changes in price.

6. What does Dr. Sabin, writing in the New York Times about the bet, think that Paul Erlich
and the environmentalists that support him missed about Simons position?
Sabin thinks that Erlich and his supporting environmentalists missed that there is rarely a
simple linear path from abundance to scarcity and the relationship between these two
factors; they did not truly grasp macroeconomic factors and how markets for natural
resources function.

7. What does Dr. Sabin think that the more conservative forces that support Julian Simons
position did not understand about Paul Erlichs position?
Sabin thinks that the conservative forces are simply using Simons win in order to justify
and completely ignore the issue of climate change. He also says that Erlichs position of
mass chaos has helped environmental efforts, and that conservative forces need to engage
themselves with these efforts instead of rejecting their purpose.

8. What commodities do you expect will be much more costly 10 years from now? Why?
I think the commodities that will be more costly 10 years from now would be things
such as oil. This is mainly because OPEC has decided to resume limiting oil
production, which indicates a future increase in prices. The prices of other precious
metals also seem to be on the rise, as these become harder to extract in an
environmentally degraded world.

Created by The North Carolina School of Science and Math.

Copyright 2012. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction. .
3