Photo : Tommaso Guicciardini

Background
The MITRE project has set out to
confirm the view that the European
European Commission
Union renewable energy targets
are achievable, and to inform key
policy and decision makers of the
economic (employment) benefits of
a proactive renewable strategy in
order to meet the targets.
Meeting the Targets
1. CAN THE EU RENEWABLES &
TARGETS BE MET?

MITRE utilises two policy

Putting Renewables
scenarios to realistically model the
impact of policies on renewable
energy market growth to 2020:
to Work
“Current Policies” and
“Advanced Renewables Strategy”.
Projected market growth is
compared to EU renewables
targets set in:
• the RES-E Directive on
the promotion of electricity
produced from renewable
energy sources,
• the White Paper and Action
Plan on Renewable Energy
Sources, and
• the Biofuels Directive on
the promotion of the use of MITRE
biofuels or other renewable
fuels for transport. Monitoring & Modelling
2. HOW LARGE ARE THE
Initiative on the Targets
EMPLOYMENT BENEFITS for Renewable Energy
OF FAVOURABLE RENEWABLE
POLICIES IN EUROPE?

The study also quantifies the ALTENER Programme

significant employment creation
as a result of the growth of the
Directorate General
renewable energy market. for Transport and Energy
All the results are presented in
a summary report and in detail European Commission
in 15 country reports, which
will be of practical interest to
many different groups, including:
• Policy-makers
and other decision-makers
• The energy industry
• Regional and local authorities More information can be obtained
• Investors in new energy from the MITRE and the EUFORES Websites
technologies http://mitre.energyprojects.net
• The general public http://eufores.org
 The EU Renewables Targets for 2010 can be met
With positive action from the Member States, the targets can be achieved, but the timeframe in which to implement
these strategies is not long. Proactive and consistent renewable strategies will increase employment, European com-
petitiveness and technological expertise, while also improving security and diversification of supply.

ELECTRICITY
Target 1 = 22.1 % OF GROSS ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
RES-E Directive on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES)
Solar thermal
28% Geothermal
Advanced Renewable Strategy
Wastes/Biogas
26% Figure 1: Figure 2:
Biomass
EU renewable Large hydro Renewable
24%
electricity PV Electricity Gross
Directive Target (22%)
22% consumption Consumption
Current Policies
20%
(% of gross by Technology
electricity in 2010 for EU-15
18%
consumption) Wind
in “Advanced
16% for 2 Renewable Strategy”
scenarios Small hydro
Scenario
14%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

The EU-15 target will be achieved by 2010 only if the “Advanced Renewable Strategy” (ARS) is pursued. The indica-
tive national targets will be met by 7 Member States (Denmark, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and
Sweden) in the ARS scenario in 2010. The other 8 Member States will nearly reach the targets (at least 90% of the tar-
gets). Two Member States will meet the targets under “Current Policies” (CP) (Denmark and Germany). For further
analysis per country, please refer to the full Summary Report and the 15 Country Reports. On a technology basis, the
main growth areas for renewable electricity are wind energy and biomass (wood and wood wastes).

ENERGY
Target 2 = 12% OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION
(including electricity, heat, and transport) White Paper and Action Plan on Renewable Energy Sources (1997)
Geothermal
16 Solar thermal
Advanced Renewable Strategy Figure 3: Wastes/Biogas Figure 4:
Large hydro
14 EU renewable Renewable
energy Small hydro Energy
12 White Paper Target (12%)
consumption Consumption
10
Current Policies (% of gross Wind by Technology
energy in 2010 for EU-15
PV
8 consumption) in “Advanced
for 2 Renewable Strategy”
6
scenarios Biomass Scenario
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Photo : EPIA

The EU can meet and even overshoot the white paper target of 12% by 2010 with an “Advanced
Renewable Strategy”. If only “Current Policies” are followed, there will be a delay of 10 years in
meeting the target, showing that proactive policies are necessary to meet this target. In both sce-
narios, approximately a third of the growth is covered by biomass fuels for the transport market.

BIOFUELS
Target 3 = 5.75 % OF SOLD GASOLINE AND DIESEL
Biofuels Directive on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport (2003)
Under the Advanced Renewable Energy scenario the target value for biofuels will be met, but not until 2011, mainly
owing to the times required to set up production facilities and infrastructure. However, the situation varies greatly
between the Member States as detailed in the Summary Report and the 15 Country Reports.

Table 1: Share of biofuels in gasoline and diesel sold in the EU-15

2010 2020
Current Policies 2.9% 4.6%
Advanced Renewables Strategy 5.7% 7.8%
Target 5.75%
 Significant employment
opportunities Belgium

Denmark

Germany

O ver 1 600 000 new jobs are predicted to be creat-

ed by 2010 throughout the EU-15, in the case of
the “Advanced Renewable Strategy” scenario. This result
Greece

Spain
Advanced
Renewable
Strategy
Current
takes into account both the direct and indirect jobs creat- France Policies
ed in and by the renewables industry and agriculture, as
Ireland
well as the jobs lost due to the effects of on other parts of
the economy arising from the implementation of support Italy

mechanisms and displacements in conventional energy. Luxembourg

Renewable energy is set to make an important contribu- Netherlands
tion towards the labour force in all Member States. The
Austria
employment analysis does not include large hydro.
Portugal

Finland

Sweden

United Kingdom
Table 2: Employment growth compared to 2000
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
(1000 Full Time Employment Equivalent/year)

Current Advanced
Policies Renewable Figure 5: Proportion of labour force supporting
Strategy renewable energy sector in 2010 per Member State
2010 2020 2010 2020
Renewables Industry (gross) 726 1020 1376 1987 For the EU15 as a whole, in the “Current Policies” sce-
Agriculture (gross) 346 510 557 761 nario, renewables account for 0.8% of total employment,
Conventional displacement -37 -45 -48 -63 while in the “Advanced Renewable Strategy scenario” the
Support mechanisms -85 -41 -225 -220 figure rises to 1.3%. In terms of labour force, the renew-
ables sector is most significant in Denmark (5.7%), fol-
Total net employment growth 950 1443 1660 2463 lowed by Austria (4.6%) and Finland (3.6%).
Photo : Courtesy of Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Solar thermal
Small hydro
Geothermal

Wastes/Biogas
Wind

Photovoltaics

Biofuels

Biomass

Figure 6:
Share of
employment
growth by
technology
B iomass, biofuels and wind energy provide more than 80% of the
employment growth in the non-agricultural sector in the ARS sce-
nario in 2010 and 2020. The share by technology is similar in the CP sce-
in 2010 for EU-15
in "Advanced
nario, but with 40% lower employment growth. For the wind industry, Renewable
employment growth for offshore wind is more dominant in the ARS sce- Strategy scenario"
nario, providing 55% of the total wind employment growth. This is lower (excluding large hydro)
in the CP scenario, where offshore employment provides less than 40%
of wind employment.
 How was the study carried out?
MITRE has taken a two-stage approach to calculating the employment effects from renewable energy:
• Stage 1: Projecting the future energy market, and the market share of renewable energy to 2020. The modelling uses the
SAFIRE* energy model to predict the levels of market penetration for renewable energy technologies, and the resulting displacement
of conventional energy technologies. Renewable Energy market penetrations are modelled based on two realistic policy scenarios:
“Current Policies” and “Advanced Renewables Strategy”. These penetrations have been compared with the targets specified in the
RES-E Electricity Directive and Renewables White Paper and the recently adopted Biofuels Directive.
• Stage 2: Calculating the employment impact of the market changes. The RIOT input-output model (Renewables enhanced Input-
Output Tables) calculates the employment impacts of renewables. It is based upon the calculation of production functions that
represent the value of inputs (including employment) from different sectors of the economy needed to produce a unit of energy, for
different energy technologies (both renewable and conventional).
The main interest from both stages 1 and 2 of the analysis arise from the assumptions used in the scenario and employment modelling respec-
tively. Descriptions of the key scenario variables and assumptions used are provided in the separate Summary and 15 Country reports.

* SAFIRE (Strategic Assessment Framework for Rational Use of Energy) is an established model, which analyses the impact of different modes of ener-
gy consumption, the introduction and spread of energy technologies, and energy policies on a number of indicators. Further information about
SAFIRE can be found at http://safire.energyprojects.net

Two Realistic Policy Scenarios

The two scenarios analysed in MITRE make a number of policy, technological and non-technological assumptions.
They each start with the current reality, but then diverse as the calculation period progresses.

The Current Policies (CP) scenario
This scenario involves a mixture of current and conventional poli-
cies at EU and national level. It assumes that present policies, unless
otherwise specified, will generally be gradually phased out by 2010.
The Advanced Renewable Strategy (ARS) scenario
This scenario is based on best practice across the EU, assuming
new renewable policies and the implementation of future proac-
tive and consistent policies coupled with a cultural shift towards
renewable energy.

Further information on the scenarios and the modelling process can be found in the Summary Report (see below for details).

Information Sources
The main information sources for the modelling process were:
• Eur’Observ’ER Baromètre, used for short term renewables installations,
renewables growth comparisons, general technology information
• Eurostat 2000, REStat 99 project used for renewable energy statistics, energy prices
• ENER-IURE project used for renewables legislation by Member State
• PRIMES model results (2003) used for energy consumption forecasts
• National statistical offices used for renewable statistics, energy prices
• Renewable Trade Associations used for technology information & statistics
• Journals & reports used for general background information

THE SUMMARY REPORT AND THE COUNTRY REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE AT:
http://mitre.energyprojects.net - http://eufores.org - http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/res/index en.htm.

Project Partners
European Commission EUFORES
Altener Programme, the European Forum for Renewable
Directorate General for Energy and Transport Energy Sources, Stéphanie Mantell (L)
Fax: +32 2 295 5852, E-mail: altener@cec.eu.int Tel: +32 2 546 1948, E-mail: eufores@eufores.org

ESD - Energy for Sustainable NTUA-RENES, Prof. Arthouros Zervos (GR)

Development Ltd, Tel: +30 1 772 10 30, E-mail: renes@central.ntua.gr
Mark Whiteley (UK)
(Project Co-ordinator) BEST, Prof. Federico Butera (I)
Tel: +44 1225 812102, E-mail: esd@esd.co.uk Tel: +39 2 23 99 72 57, E-mail: butera@tin.it

The MITRE team is an independent consortium of organisations.

Legal Notice
Neither the European Commission, nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission, is responsible for the use which might be made of
the information contained in this publication. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the Commission.