AmBank FXDaily

22 May 2017
AmBank Research
Dollar drops after dovish comments from Feds Bullard
MYR to fluctuate in the range of 4.3145-4.3485 against US dollar
Key watch: (i) Feds Kashkari, Harker and Brainard speeches; (ii) US Chicago Fed national activity
index; (iii) Apr Japan trade balance; (iv) Mar Malaysia coincident and leading indices
INDICATIVE MAJOR CURRENCIES
As at Mid-price Expected Range for Today One year

22 May 2017 as at 8.02am Low High Low High

USD/JPY 111.26 111.46 111.06 112.46 99.02 118.66
EUR/USD 1.1206 1.1161 1.0980 1.1341 1.0341 1.1428
AUD/USD 0.7459 0.7445 0.7264 0.7625 0.7145 0.7778
USD/CNY 6.8850 6.8898 6.8700 6.9095 6.5401 6.9649
USD/MYR 4.3215 4.3215 4.3145 4.3485 3.9327 4.5002
JPY/MYR 3.8841 3.8774 3.8579 3.8968 3.6790 4.1877
EUR/MYR 4.8178 4.8179 4.7983 4.8374 4.3625 4.8346
AUD/MYR 3.2183 3.2183 3.1991 3.2374 2.9290 3.4403
GBP/MYR 5.6186 5.6186 5.5987 5.6385 5.0400 6.0664
SGD/MYR 3.1079 3.1079 3.0888 3.1270 2.9206 3.1786
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group
TODAYS EVENTS Key Highlights:
C Events Prd Surv Global: The dollar fell by 0.75% to 97.14 after dovish comments from Feds
Eurogroup Meeting James Bullard saying that the Feds policy path of two more rate hikes in 2017 is
Fed Kashkari Speech overly aggressive. The euro advanced 0.93% to a six-month high of 1.1206 led
Fed Harker Speech by the dollar weakness. Meanwhile the pound rose 0.75% to a seven-month high
Fed Brainard Speech of 1.3036 supported by the soft dollar and CBI industrial trends orders which
Chicago Fed rose to 9 in May from 4 previously (beating expectations of 4).
US National Activity Apr -
Index Malaysia: The ringgit rose 0.15% to 4.3205 after the release of the stronger-
JP Trade Balance Apr 520.7B than-expected 1Q GDP data where the economy grew to 5.6% (above the
KR PPI YoY Apr - expectation of 4.8%). WTI added 0.42% to US$51.09 while Brent was up
Coincident Index US$1.26 to US$53.77 amid growing expectation that OPEC and other producing
MY Mar - countries will agree to extend output cut on scheduled meeting on May 25. The
MoM
5-year MGS yield was down 0.20bps to 3.55 the 10-year MGS yield was fell
Leading Index
MY Mar - 0.90bps to 3.87. The 5-year CDS dropped 0.76bps to 104.66.
MoM
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group
Key Watch: (i) Feds Kashkari, Harker and Brainard speeches; (ii) US Chicago Fed
Major currencies against MYR national activity index (prior: 0.08); (iii) Apr Japan trade balance projected at
520.7bil (prior: 615bil); (iv) Mar Malaysia coincident and leading indices
(prior: 1.3% and -0.9%, respectively).

Technical Outlook: The RSI reading, which is in the oversold zone, suggests the
support level will be at 4.3145 while the narrow negative gap in MACD sets the
resistance level at 4.3485

Focus of the day:

Malaysia Strong 1Q2017 GDP
For further details, please read our Economic report issued 22 May 2017

Note: (-) denotes stronger RM against respective

currencies.
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

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 22 May 2017

AmBank Research

AmBank Group, Global Markets

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Lewis Albert Singh Hans lewis-albert@ambankgroup.com
Melisa Lim Giok Ling melisa-lim@ambankgroup.com

AmBank Research
Anthony Dass anthony-dass@ambankgroup.com
Chief Economist/Head

Nur Saffiah Abdul Rahman saffiah-rahman@ambankgroup.com

FI/FX Analyst
Naomi Margaret Kasimir naomi-kasimir@ambankgroup.com
FI/FX Analyst

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AmBank Research

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