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Problem Set 11

36-217, S17
This homework is due Friday, May 5, at 11 AM. Failure to submit a correctly formatted
assignment will result in partial credit for the assignment. For a full description of submission
requirements, as well as a discussion of what constitutes cheating, please see the Syllabus
on Blackboard.
This assignment will be graded for completeness only. Because the due date is the
last day of classes, no late submissions will be accepted.

Problem 1
Suppose that X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn are independent and identically distributed exponential random
variables with parameter = 1.

P expected value and variance of each of the following: the sample mean X,
a. Compute the
the sum ni=1 Xi , and
n
X (Xi )
Zn = ,
i=1
n
where = E [X] and 2 = var [X].
b. Write out the PDFs for X, ni=1 Xi , and Zn . You may wish to refer to HW10 to do this.
P

c. Use your favorite software to plot the PDFs for X, ni=1 Xi , and Zn for n = 3, n = 10,
P
and n = 50. Briefly discuss the qualitative features of your plots.

Problem 2
Two types of coins are produced at a factory: a fair coin and a biased one that comes up
heads 55 percent of the time. We have one of these coins, but do not know whether it is a
fair coin or a biased one. In order to ascertain which type of coin we have, we will perform
the following statistical test: We will toss the coin 1,000 times. If the coin lands on heads
525 or more times, then we will conclude that it is a biased coin, whereas if it lands on heads
less than 525 times, then we will conclude that it is a fair coin.
a. If the coin is actually fair, what is the probability that we shall reach a false conclusion?
What would it be if the coin were biased?
b. Will the probability that we reach a false conclusion change if we toss the coin 10,000
times and use 5,250 as our cutoff?

Problem 3
A soil scientists wants to esitmate the average pH for a large field by randomly selecting n
samples of soil and measuring the pH in each sample. Although the standard deviation for
pH for single samples is unknown, past experience indicates that most soils have a pH value
betweeh 5 and 8.

1
a. Make a reasonable guess about the distribution of pH in soil samples. What is the variance
of your distribution?

b. If the scientist selects n = 40 samples, find the approximate probability that the sample
mean of the 40 pH measurements will be within 0.2 of the true average pH for the field.

c. How many samples would be required for a measurement that had a 95% chance of being
within 0.05 of the true average pH for the field?

Problem 4
The National Jetpack Safety Board has asked for your help in assessing jetpack safety.
Theyve started by looking at jetpack-miles-flown per capita (JMFPC) in each state. Unfor-
tunately they are unwilling to share their entire data set with you, and have only provided
you with a few numbers. Let Xi be the JMFPC in state i. They have looked at the 10 least
populous states and provided you with
10
1 X
low = Xi ,
10 i=1
v
u
u1 X 10
low = t (Xi low )2 .
10 i=1

Theyve done the same for the 10 most populous states (high , high ), and also for the 10
states at the middle of the population distribution (mid , mid ). They estimate that the
middle states have 10x the population of the smallest states, and that the largest states have
100x the population of the smallest states. The numbers are as follows:

low = 192 ,low = 45


mid = 184 ,mid = 37
high = 186 ,high = 26

Based on these results, what can you say about the the distribution of jetpack-miles-flown
for an individual? Do you think it has finite variance? Why or why not?