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By Michael McCurley
Abstract
It is possible to design a simple model that illustrates how a tutoring program
could work for the Guided Study Program in System Dynamics. This model shows how
entrance rates could affect student levels, and includes attrition and completion rates
for the program. Thus it would indicate how the workload that a tutor might expect to
have, as well as how attrition or continuance, might affect program completion.
The following model does this fairly well, in spite of the fact that it simplifies
average real conditions that would be more irregular. Results also seem to show that
better tutoring could improve program completion without actually increasing the
workload of a tutor significantly, and that actual observations of program results
combined with modeling could help a tutor to manage the tutoring workload more
effectively.
Introduction
A tutor for a distance learning guided study program, which is fairly long,
challenging and complex, will probably notice an incidence of entry rates and attrition
that affect the levels of students who are studying and the number of students who
complete the program. If that tutor were to offer a 9-month program once a year, with an
attrition rate of 50 percent, half of the students would be gone by the end of the program.
One way to maintain higher active levels of students would be to offer registration for the
program several times a year. Because the guided study program could be individually
tracked, a good tutor can help different groups of students at the same time and offer
entrance into the program once a quarter for a small number of students, rather than
handling a larger number of students all at once that would decrease due to attrition over
a longer time period.
Creating a model would help a tutor to plan for student management of lesson
assignments and could project how program performance would determine the number of
students completing the guided study program over a period of years. While it might be
possible to mentally simulate these projections with the help of a calculator or spread
sheet, a simulation model can provide a better visualization of several simultaneous
variables that would help make planning easier, and provide a clearer idea of outcomes.
Keeping assumptions for the model as simple as possible is of key importance for
creating a basic model. While these may not exactly represent all specifics, what is
important is an overview that would be of greatest service for conceptualization and still
be accurate. Changing parameter values and comparing different simulation runs would
give the tutor a good idea of possible performance outcomes under a variety of
conditions.
Defining Parameters for the Model
For the purposes of this model, assumptions for basic parameters could be as
follows: 6 students would enter each quarter period (of 3 months). The term for the
program period would be 10 months (actually adjusted from an official 9 months for
students who may delay completion of the program).
This model tracks the students who enter and are in the guided study program,
students who proceed throughout the program and complete it, and students who
eventually drop out of the program and leave it over a 5-year time period.
COMPLETION RATE
ATTRITION RATE
Students Who
Have Left
attrition period
Students who Complete or Leave Program with a 60/40 Attrition vs. Completion Ratio
(Assume an entry rate of 6 students per quarter)
80
60
40
20
0
0 9 18 27 36 45 54
Time (Month)
(18) TIME STEP = 1 [or .125 can be used for slightly more accurate results]
Units: Month
The time step for the simulation.
Without making any other changes, the results we could expect from the model
would be as follows:
Students who Complete or Leave Program with a 60/40 Completion vs. Attrition Ratio
(Assume an entry rate of 6 students per quarter)
80
60
40
20
0
0 9 18 27 36 45 54
Time (Month)
Students who Complete or Leave Program with a 60/40 Completion vs. Attrition Ratio
(Assume an entry rate of 8 students per quarter)
100
75
50
25
0
0 9 18 27 36 45 54
Time (Month)
General Observations:
Completion versus attrition rates would have little effect on the level of students
who are studying, while the number of students who are allowed to enter the program
each quarter does have a more direct effect on the level of students who are studying at
any given time.
Assuming that a tutor could, in fact, adequately supply and process study
materials, this model suggests that more candidates would successfully complete the
Guided Study Program in System Dynamics if they were properly helped and motivated.
A well-prepared tutor could facilitate this process. The tutor’s workload could be
adjusted by limiting the number of candidates who are accepted per quarter as students,
while maximizing the number of students who will eventually complete the program.
Modeling several different simulation runs can give a good idea of general
performance for different circumstances that might be considered by a tutor. These would
be useful for making decisions about entrance levels permitted for students and what
factors the tutor might control that would affect attrition and completion of the program.
While the actual numbers of students might vary from quarter to quarter, and
attrition would vary depending upon the types of students who are studying, this model
demonstrates a few mechanisms that would be useful to manage tutoring workloads. At
the same time, it gives a general idea of how changes could affect performance results
that we might expect from the program.
Conclusions
The purpose of this short paper has been to illustrate how a simulation model can
be used to study the possible performance of an individual tutoring program for the
Guided Study Program in System Dynamics. While it may not prove the viability of the
option itself, it does demonstrate the feasibility of such a project, and provides
visualization of possible performance outcomes for open education options that would be
useful to anyone managing such a program.
Further Reading
D-4773 The MIT System Dynamics Guided Study Program: An Experiment in
Distance Learning 6/1/98 Lucia Breierova, Leslie A. Martin, Manas Ratha, Helen Zhu
with Nan Lux—System Dynamics in Education Project, MIT System Dynamics Group
© 2010 This document may be freely used or copied for personal, educational, or
non-commercial purposes. Modeling information uses Vensim PLE from Ventana
Systems Inc., http://www.vensim.com