City Planet

This is a 5-minute slide

show. I won’t say much.
You’ve just witnessed history.

Modern cities change their entire physical fabric on

average every 50 years.
 Tell Beersheba, Israel

Old cities live on top of a mountain of

their own debris.
Cities are the most rapidly changing
organizations, but they’re also the oldest
—over 10,000 years.
Jerusalem: founded ca. 3,000 BC. Conquered or destroyed 36 times. Run by
earliest inhabitants, then Canaanites, Jews, Persians, Greeks, Maccabees,
Romans, Byzantines, Muslims, Crusaders, Mamluks, Ottomans, Brits, Israelis...

Jerusalem was conquered or destroyed 36

times.

While the fabric of cities changes,

something doesn’t. They can be extremely
durable.
 ?
100

Now
75

50

25 50

14
0 3

1800 1900 2007 2100

World population Percent of world urban

In 2007, 50% of the world is urban

• It was 3% in 1800
• 14% in 1900
• 61% expected in 2030
There is a major demographic event
going on in the first half of this
century. Rural population is
declining while urban population is
accelerating upward.
By the end of the century it might
level off at 80% urban.
Just when we’ve gotten used to seeing
the Earth as a whole, we’re now seeing
it in a new way—as a web of cities.
 10 largest cities in 2015 (in millions)
Tokyo 36.2
Mumbai 22.6
Delhi 20.9
Mexico City 20.6 in
developing
São Paolo 20.0 countries
New York 19.7
Dhaka 17.9
Jakarta 17.5 in
the
Lagos 17.0 West
Calcutta 16.8
History at any given time is defined by its
largest cities. Who is largest 10 years from
now?
What happened to the world dominated by
London, Paris, and New York?
 10 largest cities in 1000 AD
Cordova, Spain 450,000
Kaifeng, China 400,000
Constantinople, Turkey 300,000
in Angkor, Cambodia 200,000
the Kyoto, Japan 175,000
West Cairo, Egypt 135,000
Baghdad, Iraq 125,000
Nishapur, Iran 125,000
Al-Hasa, Saudi Arabia 110,000
Patan, India 100,000
–Tertius Chandler, 4,000 Years of Urban Growth, 1987

The rise of the West is over.

 Globalization shifts power
to the cities

• Communications and markets bypass nations.

• Governments of some developing countries have
been discredited.
• “Subsidiarity” pushes power down to regions and
cities.
• Multinational corporations go directly to where the
market and workers are.
• NGOs go directly to where the need is.

Every city is a “world city”

 Current global urbanization is the
largest movement of people
in history

• Every week 1.3 million new people

move to the city.

• 70 million a year…
• …decade after decade.
The aggregate numbers are
overwhelming.
What’s going on?
 SyriaKong
near Hong
Faroe
Central Islands
Russia
South Africa
China
Bolivia
Togo, Africa

The villages of the world are

emptying out.
Why?
 Life in the country
• Dull
• Backbreaking
• Impoverished
• Restricted
• Exposed
• Dangerous
• Static

This is the unromantic reality.

 Life in the city
• Exciting
• Less grueling
• Better paid
• Free
• Private
• Safe
• Upwardly mobile

"City air makes you free" was the

saying in Renaissance Germany.
 Shanghai

Some go to places like Shanghai.

Port au Prince, Haiti

Most go to squatter cities.

Cairo

... where there’s no shortage of

aesthestics.
Kibera - Nairobi
The squatters are not a populace
oppressed by poverty. They are
people busy getting out of
poverty as fast as they can.
Kibera - Nairobi
 Rocinha - Rio de Janeiro
ho SEEN ya in Rio.
Look at the aggregate numbers, and
you discover...
 Squatters are the
dominant builders in the
world today.
 Rocinha

...with home-brew infrastructure.

 Rocinha

...and vibrant urban life

Mumbai - 1/6 of India’s GDP

Slum-laden Mumbai generates 1/6

of India’s GDP.
 Mumbai

Medieval is back.
 Indore, India

Squatters continuously upgrade.

In rare cases the government
helps.
 Indore, India

Education is possible in the

cities. That changes the world.
Mumbai

What’s going on in that street?

 Informal enterprises
food stall videos (pirated)
Internet cafe music (pirated)
bar gadget shop
hair dresser public phone
church cell phones
school public transport
clothes shop day care
copy center dentist

Everything.
 Informal economy

• Rent (of undeeded property)

• Construction (of undeeded buildings)
• Employment (in unlicensed, untaxed businesses)
• Services (unlicensed, untaxed)
• 60% of employment in developing countries
• The “dark energy” of economic theory
There’s no unemployment in
squatter cities. Everyone works.
 What squatters care about

• Security of tenure!
• Location (near work)
• Water
• Sanitation
• Electricity
• Protection from crime
Not being bulldozed.

Protection especially from

criminals outside.
 What squatters don’t worry about

• Housing
• Phone service
• Unemployment (everyone works)
• Starvation
• Access to medical care
Squatters are proud of their
shacks and steadily improve
them.

Cell phones abound.

Famine is rural only now.

Medicine is efficient in cities.

 Women...

• Are liberated by moving to the city.

• Start and run the CBOs— Community-based
Organizations.

• Are the most reliable and effective users of

microfinance loans.

• Are the most reliable holders of property

deeds.

CBOs: residents associations,

savings groups, child care
groups, communal kitchens,
coops, minority support groups,
advocacy groups, clubs, theater
and leisure groups, sports
groups.
 Delhi
Squatter slums are congenial and vibrant. They
are where the action is.
Dhaka, Bangladesh
 • One billion now live in squatter cities.

• Two billion more are expected.

• This is good news.

One-sixth of humanity.
 Cities are population sinks

• Always have been.

• The birthrate of new urban dwellers drops
immediately to replacement level (2.1
children/woman), and keeps on dropping.

• World population will level off at 8 or 9

billion, and then drop rapidly.

First punch line.

Cities have defused the population
bomb.
 Cities are wealth creators

• Always have been.

• In the newly burgeoning cities, billions are
climbing out of poverty.

• The urbanizing world is a place of massive

transformation and surprising hope.

Second punch line. Surprising

hope.
That’s the news from downtown.
Here it is in perspective...
The stars have shined down on
Earth’s life for billions of years.
Now we shine right back up.
City Planet