Mindanao State University

General Santos City

College of Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering

Name: Karen Claire B. Beler BS CEN IV

Subject: CE 141 Transportation Engineering I
Time/Day: 1:00 PM 2:30 PM, MTH
Req. Type: Case Study II
Instructor: Engr. Steve Anthony N. Lim
Due Date: May 22, 2017 (Monday)

General Santos City has a fast-growing economy and with it is the rapid increase in the
demand for transportation services. Observation, even without statistical analysis, show that for
the past 5-10 years there has been a steady increase in traffic density within the main
thoroughfares of the city. Furthermore, increase in the number of tricycles and trisikad
together with the decline in PUJs with routes within the city proper indicate that there has been
a shift in the kind of transportation service the citizens of GSC prefer.
Knowledge about Forecasting Travel Demand is therefore a must for any aspiring
transportation engineer. What are the processes involved in this endeavor? Explain/elaborate
each process and, wherever possible, give examples to support your explanations/elaborations.

Travelling in and around General Santos City by land is fast and accessible. There are
lots of modes of land transportation readily available in the city. The three-wheeled vehicles
known as tricycles and the modified motorcycles known as habal-habal are the citys primary
mode of public transport drive along the major thoroughfares. With the rapid increase in the
demand for transportation services is the rising of traffic congestion which is beginning to be
experienced along major intersections of the city. Government of the city is crafting a master
plan to instill discipline of motorists, commuters, and pedestrians in the use of roads which
worsen the traffic situation, regulate the increasing the number of vehicles and the mode of
transportation used such as tricycles and habal-habal, control and assess traffic accidents which
are noted to have increased over the past few years, and standardize proliferation of institutional
and commercial facilities along major streets in urban areas to have adequate parking spaces
which contributes to traffic congestion.
Urban transportation planning is the process that leads to decisions on transportation
policies and programs. In this process, planners develop information about the impacts of
implementing alternative courses of action involving transportation services. This information is
used to help decision-makers (elected officials or their representatives) in their selection of
transportation policies and programs.
 The transportation planning process relies on travel demand forecasting which is solely
within the domain of the transportation planner and is an integral part of site development and
traffic engineering studies as well as area wide transportation planning. The forecasting process
also provides detailed information, such as traffic volumes, vehicle patronage, and turning
movements, to be used by engineers and planners in their designs. There are four basic phases in
the traditional travel demand forecasting process that has been developing over the past 25 years
for forecasts of urban travel and is based on land use and travel characteristics.
1. Trip Generation
Trip generation is the process of determining the number of trips that will begin or
end in each traffic analysis zone within a study area. In this phase, the planner is
concerned only with the number of trip ends. A trip end is defined as the beginning or
ending of a trip; for example, a trip from home to work has two trip ends. Each trip has
two ends, and these are described in terms of trip purpose, or whether the trips are either
produced by a traffic zone or attracted to a traffic zone. Trip generation analysis has two
function: (1) to develop a relationship between trip end production or attraction and land
use and (2) to use the relationship to estimate the number of trips generated at some
future date under a new set of land use conditions. Here's a simplified example: The
UPTOWN survey data show that Zone I has employment of 900 people and attracts 4,
511 trips. By dividing the trips by employees, we find about 5 trips attracted per
employee. This rate can then be used to predict attractions for future employment levels.
The output of this trip generation analysis is a table of trip ends the number of trips that
are produced and the number that are attracted. The study area is divided into zones for
analysis purposes. After the trip generation analysis, the planner knows how many trips
are produced by each zone, and how many are attracted by each zone. To illustrate the
process, two methods are basically use: multiple linear regression and cross-
classification.
2. Trip Distribution
After trip generation, the analyst knows the numbers of trip productions and trip
attractions each zone will have. But, where do the attractions in Zone I come from and
where do the productions go? What are the zone-to-zone travel volumes?
Trip distribution is a process by which planner determines where the generated
trips will be attracted. That is, each zones trip productions are connected to all the zones
to which they are attracted. These trips may be within the study area (internal-internal) or
between the study area and areas outside the study area (internal-external). The decision
is represented by comparing the relative attractiveness and accessibility of all zones in the
area, for example, a person is likely to travel to a nearby zone with a high level of activity
than to a distant zone with a low level of activity.
The most widely used model for trip distribution is a Gravity model, which aims
to estimate travel demand based on the relationship between trip generation, trip
attraction, and impedance function between zones such as a travel distance. The gravity
 model derives its name and basic premise from Isaac Newtons law of gravity which
states that the attractive force between any two bodies is directly related to the masses
of the bodies and inversely related to the distance between them. Similarly, in the
gravity model, the number of trips between two areas is directly related to activities in the
area represented by trip generation and inversely related to the separation between the
areas represented as a function of travel time. Therefore, areas with large amounts of
activity tend to exchange more trips and areas farther from each other tend to exchange
fewer trips.
3. Mode Choice
In this phase of travel demand forecasting, we analyze peoples decisions
regarding mode of travel automobile, bus, train, etc. It is an aspect of the demand
analysis process that determines the number (or percentage) of trips between zones that
are made by vehicles. Before we can predict how travel will be split among the modes
available to the traveler, we must analyze the factors that affect the choices that people
make. Three factors are considered in mode choice: the characteristics of the trip maker,
the characteristics of the trip, and the characteristics of the transportation system. The
planner looks at how these characteristics interact to affect the trip makers choice of
mode. When the relationships have been discovered, the planner can predict how the
population of the future will choose from among the modes that will be available.
4. Traffic Assignment
Trip assignment is the fourth and final step in travel demand forecasting process.
This step determines the most probable set of routes through the highway network that
will be used by a given set of origin to destination highway flows and the number of
vehicles that can be expected on each highway segment. It is the procedure by which the
planner predicts the paths the trips will take. For example, if a trip goes from a suburb to
downtown, the planner predicts which specific roads or routes are used. This process
begins by constructing a map representing the vehicle network in the study are. The
network maps show the possible paths that trips can take. The intersections (called nodes)
on the network map are identified, so that the sections between them (called links) can be
identified. After the links are identified by nodes, the length, type of facility, location in
the area, number of lanes, speed, and travel time are identified in each link. The output of
trip assignment analysis shows the paths that all trips will take, and therefore the number
of vehicles on each roadway and the number of passengers on it.

Using these analyses of trip generation, trip distribution, mode usage, and trip
assignment, the planner can obtain realistic estimates of the effects of policies and
programs on travel demand. Once travel demand is known, the planner can assess the
performance of alternative transportation systems and identify various impacts that the
system will have on the urban area, such as energy use, pollution, and accidents. With
information on how transportation systems perform, and the magnitude of their impacts,
 planners can provide decision-makers with some of the information they need to evaluate
alternative methods of supplying a community with transportation services.
If proper transportation planning and travel demand forecasting are not implemented
within the city, what consequences, in your opinion, will have the most lasting and devastating
impact to our transportation services?

General Santos City, as one of the fast-growing city today, is now experiencing a rapid
increase in the number of vehicles and the mode of transportation used by commuters such as
tricycles and habal-habal. Without proper transportation planning and travel demand
forecasting, the city will experience heavy traffic congestion that people in the city have to deal
with every single day, with stress levels going up as people wait in helpless agony as vehicles
move slower than a snails pace. The traffic congestion is now a crisis that can cost the economy
of the city in productivity loss each day if it is not carefully addressed. A proper travel demand
forecasting along with appropriate implementation of transportation planning process is
necessary to save the city and to mitigate this kind of dilemma. The transportation planning
process and travel demand forecasting methods are useful where it can assist planners,
transportation engineers and others involve in the community to select a course of action for
improving transportation services.
SOURCES:

Garber, N. J., & Hoel, L. A. (2009). Traffic & Highway Engineering (4th ed.) Canada, MA:

Cengage Learning.

National Transportation Library. (1977). An Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting

A Self Instructional Text. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT).
Retrieved from https://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/UT.html