PercepcindelCambioClimticoGlobalenelCaribe:

ImplicacionesparaLaRepblicaDominicana

Dr.JorgeE.Gonzlez
NOAACRESTProfessorofMechanicalEngineering
TheCityCollegeofNewYork
2deMarzo de2016
 Outline
WhatisCaribbeanclimate?
HowistheCCchanging?
Whataretheregional,local,andsocietal
implicationsofthesechanges?
HowtheCCwillchangeinthefuture?
Whatfutureresearchisneeded?

JGonzalez/CCNY/March2016
 Caribbean&MesoAmerica
(alsoknowasIntraAmericas),
isaconvergingregionof
mutltiple processes.
Keyvariables:

SSTs
Subsidence
Verticalwindshear(VWS)
ENSO
SD
Hurricanepaths

Landlockedshadedregionrepresents
climateinduceddisplacementduring
the2012season.

JGonzalez/March2016
 IARClimateOverview
BimodalPrecipitationTrend:
GPCPmonthlyprecipitationdata
o DrySeason:Dec Mar 200

DailyAccumulatedPrecipitationfortheIAR
Precipitation1979to2010
o EarlyRainfall:April June 180

160 Precipitation1979to1994
o LateRainfall:Aug Nov 140 Precipitation1995to2010

(mm/day)
120

100
MidSummerDrought(MSD) 80
MidSummerDrought
Cause(s)forMSDvariabilityisstill 60
unknown SlightincreaseinLRS
40
precipitationwithinpast
Morepronouncedinwestern 20 15years
Caribbean
0
PotentiallinktoSaharandust J F M A M J J A S O N D
contribution Months

PrecipitationintheCaribbean
Matchglobalaveragechanges
Annualanddecadalvariability
RelatedtoSSTs

JGonzalez/March2016
 ObservedCaribbeanClimatology
DRYSEASON EARLYRAINFALLSEASON LATERAINFALLSEASON

(b) (c)
(a)

(d) (e) (f)

SST observed climatology from ReynoldsSmith data, 19822003 for (a) DS, (b) ERS, (c) LRS and Climatological Rainfall
from CPCMerged Analysis, 19792003 for (d) DS, (e) ERS and (f) LRS. (from Angeles et al. 2007; Int. J. of Climatology)
GuidingQuestions

HOWISTHECARIBBEANCLIMATE
CHANGING?

JGonzalez/March2016
 RecentDetectedChangesofSSTsintheIAR

IARsensitivetoglobalclimate
changes
CaribbeanSSTswarming
similartoglobalaverages
Warmingvaries
throughouttheregion

0.015Cperyear

JGonzalez/March2016 (fromGlennetal.2015;J.GRLetters;)
 RecentDetectedChangesofSSTsintheIAR
LeftDailySpatialVariability
RightDailyAnomalies

JGonzalez/March2016
 EarlyRainfallSeason
SSTsSeasonalTrends(19822012;C/yr)

Overthepast30years:

Warming(significant)
LateRainfallSeason
GulfCoast
NortheastofSouthAmerica
Cooling
AroundcoastofFlorida

IncreasingtrendinDSnot
sufficienttomotivateconvection,
DrySeason
dryingtrend

JGonzalez/March2016
 EarlyRainfallSeason
SSTsSeasonalTrends(19822012;C/yr)

LateRainfallSeason
Regionsofgreatestwarminghave
highcrosscorrelationwith
increasingprecipitationinthat
samearea
ERS 0.78
LRS 0.79

DrySeason

JGonzalez/March2016
 RegionalConsequences:
AtlanticWarmPoolChanginginMagnitude& Intensity
19831997 19982012

Past15yearsreflect
thelargestincrease
inmagnitudeand
intensity>LargerTC
activity.

JGonzalez/March2016
IAR SST &
precipitation
trends relative
to the tropic
and sub-
tropics

IAR is among
the warmest &
driest tropical
regions.

JGonzalez/March2016
 Whatarethepotential
consequentialeffectsofthe
observedCaribbeanclimate
changesinlocalecosystems?

JGonzalez/March2016
 "El agua se lo llev todo": el misterio de los
lagos crecientes del Caribe. BBC-Espanol,
1/16.2014

RisingTideIsaMysteryThatSinksIslandHopes by
NewYorkTimes Jan.11,2014

JGonzalez/March2016
 LakeEnriquillo/AzueiAreaIncrease2000 2015

JGonzalez/March2016
 LakesAreaChanges&Precipitation
(throughJuly2015)

http://hispaniolalakes.ccny.cuny.edu/
JGonzalez/March2016
(TheLakesObservatory)
 WhyistheSurfaceAreaoftheLakesChangingDramatically?
AHydroMeteorologyHypothesis
Precipitation
increase Runoffincrease
Evaporation
Lakelevel
increase
rise
overthesea Increaseoffresh Lakeevaporation
waterproduction decrease
Increasedprecipitation

Reductionin
evaporation

Increasein
Increasein Lakesurface
orographicwater area
production
IncreasedmoistureinthelakeareaduetoincreasedSSTssurroundingthelakebasin
Increasingfreshwaterproductionintheareaduetoincreasedhorizontalrainproducedmainlyby
orographiccloudformationinthesurroundingcloudmontaneforests
AcombinationofthesefactorsisleadingtoTotalLakeSurfaceAreaincrease
JGonzalez/March2016
 TestingoftheAHydroMeteorologyHypothesis
withAtmosphericModeling:ResultsforDifferencesinKeyVariables
TotalsurfaceprecipitationandTotalliquidwatercontentbetween7001500m

April2003and2012

Modelinggridsshowinghorizontalresolution
ofeach.

Averagedsurfacewind(vectors)withverticalmotions(contours)andTotalliquidwater
JGonzalez/March2016 contentalongcrosssectionat18.25NLat.
GuidingQuestions

WHATARETHESOCIETAL
IMPLICATIONSOFTHESECHANGES?

JGonzalez/March2016
 DROUGHTINDEX

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

SPI is a tool defined to monitor drought at a given
time scale and rainfall station. This index also can be
used to monitor periods of anomalous wet events.
SPI Classification
1month SPI:
>2.0 Extremelywet
Accurate representation of monthly precipitation.
1.5to1.99 Verywet
3month SPI:
1.0to1.49 Moderatelywet
Reflects short/medium soil moisture condition at the
growing season.
0to0.99 Mildlywet
Provide a seasonal estimation of precipitation. 0to0.99 Milddrought
6month SPI: 1to1.49 Moderatedrought

Associated with anomalous stream flows 1.5to1.99 Severedrought

and reservoir levels.
<2.0 Extremedrought

JGonzalez/March2016
 DROUGHTINDEX CARIBBEANREGION
DominicanRepublic19802014

DominicanRepublic19802014

Extremedrought Extremedrought
June1994 Nov2009
0.0215/year
1980 2014

CMAPcoordinate18.25oN,71.25oWSouthEastDOMINICANREPUBLIC
SPI 3MonthJuly1994

Long term drought index in Dominican Republic show

periods of severe and extreme drought events. There is
an increasing trend slight drought reduction but still
in the category of moderate to severe drought.
SPI 3 month window size for June 1994 shows severe
to extreme drought in Dominican Republic and Puerto
Rico.
Central America also have extreme drought, while the
northern Caribbean region is mildly to moderate wet.

JGonzalez/March2016
 HEAT INDEX

Heat
Index

Source:
NWS

JGonzalez/March2016
 HEAT INDEX EFFECTS
Air temperature
30 oC (86 oF)
Mildly comfortable Moderate sweating
keeps body cool when it evaporates from
our skin, but concentration is reduced.
35 oC (95 oF)
Heat cramp Heart rate and sweating
increase, body loses water and salts
causing muscles to ache.
40 oC (104 oF)
Heat exhaustion Heart rate becomes
rapid, the body feels tired and nauseous
and sweating becomes heavier.
45 oC (113 oF)
Heat stroke Core temperature raised,
sweating stops, skin becomes dry.
Howitworksdaily, Australian Government, and Tibbetts
Fainting, organ damage and death Jhon, Environmental Perspective, 2015
possible.

JGonzalez/March2016
HeatIndex trendsinrecentclimate
Higher SSTs > Increase evaporation & moisture
levels.

From 1948 to 1990, Dominican Republic shows a HI

increasing trend of 0.059oF per year.

Dominican Republics heat index indicates a fast

increasing trend from the year 1990 to 2014 (0.195
oF/year).

safe caution highcaution

NCEPcoordinate17.5oN,70oWSouthWestDOMINICANREPUBLIC

0.1915oF/year

0.059oF/year
Maximum

Monthly

1948 2014
JGonzalez/March2016
 HDIANDENERGYPERCAPITA
Main function of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC)
system is providing comfortable human environment within
buildings.
Typical design conditions require an air temperature of 72oF, 50% RH, and 15 cfm
outside air per person to dilute odors from human bioeffluents.
15
Environmentalenthalpy

0.240 1061.2 0.444 /

Human discomfort index (HDI) allows to determine cooling/heating

need for comfort.
HDI < 0 means a warming need condition.
HDI > 0 cooling need condition.
HIref = HI @T=72F and RH = 50% HIref = 76.91F.

JGonzalez/March2016
ImpactsofClimateChangeinEnergyInfrastructure
oftheCaribbean
The HVAC is the energy required to reduce the temperature and humidity to human
comfort levels.

HVAC for Dominican Republic is increasing at a rate 0.24GW per year, which
corresponds with the longterm increasing trend of the actual total electric
consumption per capita.
TotalEnergyConsumptionfor
HVACforDominicanRepublic(19802013) DominicanRepublic(19802013)

NCEPcoordinate17.5oN,70oWSouthWestDOMINICANREPUBLIC Source:WorldBank
GuidingQuestions

HOWWILLCARIBBEANCLIMATE
CHANGEINTHEFUTURE&WHATMAY
BEHECONSEQUENCESINTHEENERGY
INFRASTRUCTURE?

JGonzalez/March2016
 IPCC SCENARIOS
The IPCC conducted a study of
technical, scientific and socioeconomic
information to determine the risk of
climate changes generated by human
activity.
The IPCC issued the IS92 scenarios
group in 1992. IPCC developed a new
group of scenarios published in Special
Report on Emissions (SRES) in 2000.
The representative concentration
pathways (RCPs) is the third generation
of scenarios and they have replaced the
SRES.
RCP8.5
RCP6.0.
RCP4.5
RCP2.6

JGonzalez/March2016
 IPCC SCENARIOS

RCP4.5 is more likely not

exceed 2oC, while RCP8.5 is
likely not exceed 4oC at the
end of the 21st century.
According with the RCP8.5
and RCP6.0 scenarios a
more acidic oceans and sea
level rise between half to
one meter are expected.
In addition, more heat
waves and changes in
rainfall patterns should be
expected.
RCP4.5 scenario was
selected.

JGonzalez/March2016
 THE COMMUNITY CLIMATE SYSTEM
MODEL (CCSM) VERSION 4

The CCSM4 numerical results for

the scenario RCP4.5 is considered.

93 years of simulation, from 2006

to 2100, were divided into three
climatological periods.
Latitude: 0.94o
Longitude: 1.25o Atmospheric-
Land
The first one is called current
CAM4-CLM4
climate and is running from
Flux Coupler
2006 to 2020.
Computer
Fluxes
The second periods is defined
Conserve Parallel Ocean at the middle of the 21st
Model mesh
century from 2041 to 2060.
Sea Ice Code
version 4
Parallel Ocean
Program (POP)
Latitude: 0.25o- The last period is located at the
0.55o
Longitude: 1.11o end of the 21st century,
covering the years from 2081 to
2099.

JGonzalez/March2016
 CCSM4 CURRENT CLIMATE
Air Temperature
Intense heat index is
simulated from ERS and
LRS, being identified
strong HI around the
Greater Antilles in the
LRS.

CCSM4 simulates a high

caution LRS with HI at
Caribbean Sea around
95oF and Greater Antilles Humidity HI
between 90 95oF.

A simulated warmer
region must require
larger energy to keep
adequate level of human
comfort.

JGonzalez/March2016
 CURRENT OBSERVED IAR CLIMATE
Heat Index Human Discomfort Index

In the LRS, the maximum HI turns in the Caribbean

Sea becomes an extreme caution region (90F) and Energy Per Capita Demand
the Greater Antilles a Caution region (85-90F).
HDI highest cooling need condition control the
entire Caribbean region, with Southern Mexico and
Northwest South America showing slight warming
requirements.
An area with highest energy per capita (180 kWh
per season) located on the Southwest Caribbean
Sea is outspreading drastically over the whole
Caribbean Sea during the LRS.

JGonzalez/March2016
 LONG TERM TENDENCY SIMULATED BY CCSM4

Air
temperature

RH

Four RCP
scenarios:
Rcp2.6
Heat Index Rcp4.5
Rcp6.0 HDI
Rcp8.5
 CCSM4 FUTURE CLIMATE 2081 - 2099
RH

Air temperature

Heat
Index

JGonzalez/March2016
 CURRENT & FUTURE CLIMATE
-ENERGY DEMAND-

Energy per
capita during
the LRS,
2006-2020

climatology for Energy per capita, 2006-2020

Energy per capita for main countries, 2006-2020
using closest CCSM4 coordinate to countries
Monthly energy per capita climatology (2006-
2020) peak energy per capita demand occurs RCP4.5 scenario
in the month of August (192 kWh per month).
The seasonal energy per capita demand evolves
to around 200 kWh per season during the LRS,
covering the Caribbean Sea.
Annual energy per capita time series during the
current climatology indicates an annual
variability with similar values than obtained from
NCEP Reanalysis data from 2006 to 2013.

JGonzalez/March2016
 CCSM4 FUTURE CLIMATE-ENERGY DEMAND
Climate difference between future Geographical distribution during the
climate 2041-2060, 2081-2099 and Late rainfall season
current climate 2006-2020

Error between GCM and NCEP.

Annual anomaly of the difference (future-

present) climatology
 FUTURECARIBBEANRENEWABLEENERGYRESOURCE20412055

Monthly average daily total solar resource for the Caribbean basin simulated by PCM. The future
Caribbean rainfall season is divided in (a) DS, (b) ERS and (c) LRS.
JGonzalez/March2016
 FUTURECARIBBEANWINDPOWERDENSITY20412055

(a) (b) (c)

Wind Power density from for (a) DS, (b) ERS and (c) LRS.

JGonzalez/March2016
 Observations & Reflections
The Caribbean & Meso-America regions are experiencing accelerated warming (since
1982-) reflected in increases of SSTs at rates higher than most regions
(0.3C/decade).
Immediate consequences are observed in key environmental variables, in occasions
leading to extreme processes.
Moisture content
Higher air temperatures
Droughts
Agenda Forward:
In-depth analysis of present climate change consequences (i.e. precip; fluxes).
Better understanding of extreme weather events including variability of cyclonic
activity in regional and local scales.
Better understanding of competing/contributing processes.
Better understanding of how local land use changes interact with a regional changing
climate.
Specific, resource assessment (water, energy) as functions of these observed and
projected changes.
Communicate CLIMATE trends information in usable form to stakeholders.

JGonzalez/March2016
 Questions&Comments

Dr.JorgeE.Gonzlez
TheCityCollegeofNewYork
NewYork,NY
gonzalez@me.ccny.cuny.edu
cuerg.ccny.cuny.edu

http://hispaniolalakes.ccny.cuny.edu/
JGonzalez/March2016