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1
For month ending May 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Gold: +0.1% (May), +1.6% (QTD), +10.1% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Gold price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Gold Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Gold was flat on the month ending at $1268.9/ounce (oz). In $1,400 $120,000
our 2017 base case outlook, gold may rise to $1300/oz in the $1,350
$100,000
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
In a bearish scenario, the Fed may move more aggressively,
seeing the USD appreciate and bursting the bond market bubble
and pushing gold near the $1100/oz level. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 05/31/16 to 05/31/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
2009
250,000
low commodity prices continues to roll off, while US core CPI 200,000
dipped from 2.0% to 1.9%. 150,000
Rates: The US 10yr Treasury yield closed the month down at 100,000
2.2% for May while US real interest rates on a 10 year basis 50,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
date the dollar is down 5.4%, a boon for precious metals. 2017
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 05/31/17.
1 0.1%
price appreciation year to date has likely deterred interest. 60% 7 .8% 7 .7 % 8.7 % 9.0% 8.9%
50%
Supply: According to the Gold Focus 2017 report produced by 40%
Metals Focus, mine production in 2016 increased by only 1% 30%
55.4% 55.5% 53.5% 54.8% 54.3%
while recycling supply (constituting about 1/3 of annual supply) 20%
increased 5% led primarily by higher prices last year in several 10%
key emerging market economies. 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
2
For month ending May 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Silver: +0.8% (May), -5.1% (QTD), +8.9% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Silver price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Silver Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
2017 continued to be a wild ride for silver in May, which after $22 $20,000
falling to $16.2/oz on May 9th, closed the month at $17.3/oz. $21 $18,000
In our 2017 base case, we believe silver may trade in the $21/oz $16 $8,000
range driven by higher inflation, a weakening US dollar (in first $15 $6,000
$14 $4,000
half of year) and improving manufacturing growth.
$13 $2,000
Slowing mine production may continue to be a tailwind for $12 $-
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
silver prices. As mining capital expenditure and investment
continues to decline, this should further weigh on silver supply.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 05/31/16 to 05/31/17.
net inflows of 710 metric tonnes (t), the highest monthly inflow 2,000
1,000
Inventories: COMEX silver inventories rose by 149t in May 15,000
led by eligible inventories which has risen for 4 consecutive 500
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
2009
May 30th), as short positions rose 49% to 28,714 contracts and
long positions fell 29% to 70,790 contracts. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 05/31/17.
80,000
year to date, remains above the long term average of 59 as 60,000
silvers discount to gold continued this month. 40,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
finished goods and rising to 2.5% from 2.3% on a final demand
basis in April. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 05/31/17.
3
For month ending May 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Platinum: +0.5% (May), -0.1% (QTD), +5.2% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Platinum price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Platinum Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
Platinum rebuffed its downward trend last month by rising $1,200 $2,500
We currently like the risk-reward for platinum over the next $1,050 $1,500
year and our base-case sees platinums fair value near $1,000
US$1020/oz as defensive asset demand and global growth $950 $1,000
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
weakness in the South African Rand (ZAR).
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 05/31/16 to 05/31/17.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
2009
This was driven by a 75% rise in short positions to near two-
year highs. Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 05/31/17.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 05/31/17.
4
For month ending May 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Palladium: -0.9% (May), +2.6% (QTD), +20.3% (YTD)
Investment Outlook Palladium price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Volume (rhs) Palladium Price (lhs) 50 dma (lhs) 200 dma (lhs)
$850 $1,400
Palladium upward trajectory took a breath as the price
realized its first monthly drop in May of 0.9%. After falling to $800
Jun-16
Dec-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Oct-16
May-16
Feb-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Jul-16
Aug-16
infrastructure spending and recovery in global growth.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 05/31/16 to 05/31/17.
18.7% from last month) with total holdings of 42,750 ounces. (5)
20
(10)
Futures: Net speculative positioning in palladium futures
- (15)
dipped 15% in May to 18,709 contracts (as of May 30th), while
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008
2009
long positions fell 11% and short positions rose 51%.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/07 to 05/31/17.
20,000
sales rose to 1.51 million in May ending flat on a year over
15,000
year basis and a 6.5% increase from April.
10,000
Market Balance: Expected continued supply deficits, 5,000
growing demand, and drawdowns in above ground stocks
-
have kept the market balance for palladium favorable.
(5,000)
Industrial Metals: Palladiums correlation to industrial (10,000)
metals (0.57) is the highest among precious metals and the (15,000)
recent rally in industrial metals, which are up 16.7% year over
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
year, has benefitted palladium demand and performance.
Source: Bloom berg, ETF Securities. Chart data from 12/31/09 to 05/31/17.
60%
Supply: Global palladium supply deficits have persisted
50%
since 2012 making palladiums fundamentals very supportive
40% 7 7 .3% 7 7 .9% 7 7 .8%
for prices. Deficits rose to 1.17 million ounces in 2016 and are 7 4.3% 7 5.7%
30%
expected to persist and grow to 1.38 million ounces in 2017
20%
according to Metals Focus, which should add further support
10%
to palladium. 0.4% 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2% 0.1 %
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: Metals Focus, ETF Securities. Chart data as of 5/31/17.
5
For month ending May 31st, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Important Risks
The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of
future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would
be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust are
not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the
Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These
investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience
greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not
FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely
affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:
A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are
used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently,
its price and the price of the Shares;
Investors expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;
Currency exchange rates;
interest rates;
Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and
Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the
precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the
price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing
companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.
Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices,
negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen.
Failure by the Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the
Trusts.
The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any
insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the
Trusts precious metal that is not covered by insurance.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trust.
Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or authorized
participants may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50k to 100k shares.
ETFS Physical Precious Metals Basket Index reflects the daily performance of a basket with the following components and ratios: gold (0.030oz), silver
(1.100oz), platinum (0.004oz) and palladium (0.006oz). Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index. Futures
contract = agreement traded on an organized exchange to buy or sell assets at a fixed price but to be delivered and paid for later. Long position = buying of an
asset with the expectation the asset will rise in value. Short position = sale of a borrowed asset with the expectation that the asset will fall in value. Spot price =
current market price at which an asset is bought or sold for immediate payment and delivery. S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks
selected by the Standard & Poors Index Committee designed to represent the performance of the leading industries in the U.S. economy. MSCI Emerging
Markets (EM) Index is an equity index that captures large and midcap representation across Emerging Markets countries. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
is a broad-based flagship benchmark measuring investment grade, US dollar, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The US Dollar (USD) Index is an index (or
measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of US trade partners' currencies. The
Euro/US Dollar exchange rate is the relative pricing of the euro (the official currency of the European Union) and the US dollar. The US Dollar/Japanese Yen
exchange rate is the relative pricing of the yen (the official currency of Japan) and the US dollar. The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be
representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. Year over year = the percent change over a full calendar year. The Consumer Price Index
(CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services; headline includes all categories while core
excludes food and energy. South African Rand (ZAR) = official currency of South Africa. The Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Index (PMI) is an indicator of the
economic health of the manufacturing sector. Producer Price index (PPI) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of
goods and services. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary
market for trading metals such as gold, silver, copper and aluminium. NYMEX = New York Mercantile Exchange. The Paris Agreement, or Paris climate accord
and Paris climate agreement, is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gas
emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the
prospectus. Carefully consider each Trusts investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please
click here to view the prospectus.
ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium
Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust.
Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
ETF001167 05/31/18