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No of Pages : 5 Course Code : 12P401

Roll No:
(To be filled in by the candidate)

PSG COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY, COIMBATORE - 641 004


SEMESTER EXAMINATIONS, MAY - 2016
BE / (SW) BE PRODUCTION ENGINEERING Semester : 4
12P401 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Time : 3 Hours Maximum Marks : 100


INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Answer ALL questions from GROUP I.
2. Answer any FOUR questions from GROUP II.
3. Answer any ONE question from GROUP III.
4. Ignore the box titled as Answers for Group III in the Main Answer Book.
5. Statistical Tables is to be permitted.
GROUP - I Marks : 10 x 3 = 30

1. Describe the sample spaces of the following experiments


(i) A digital scale is used that provides weights to be nearest gram.
(ii) Three bits are transmitted over a digital communications channel. Each bit is either
distorted or received without distortion (good).
2. A computer system uses passwords that are six characters and each character is one of
the 26 letters (a z) or 10 integers (0-9). Uppercase letters are not used. Suppose a
hacker selects a password at random.
(i) What is the probability that it begins with a vowel?
(ii) What is the probability that it ends with an odd number?
3. The following circuit operates if and only if there is a path of functional devices from left
to right. The probability of each device functions is as shown. Assume that the
functioning of the devices are independent. What is the probability that the circuit
operates.

0.9
0.9 0.8

0.95
0.95 0.9

4. Determine the range and hence classify the following random variables as Discrete or
Continuous.
(i) The number of surface flaws in a large coil of galvanized steel.

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(ii) The diameter of a hole drilled in a sheet metal component whose target is 12.5
millimeters and expected variation is 0.5.
(iii) The number of nonconforming solder connections in a printed circuit board with 1000
connections.
5. If X is exponentially distributed, prove that the probability that X exceeds its expected
value is less than 0.5.
6. Find the odd one out among the following regarding correlation and hence give reason.
(i) Income and expenditure
(ii) Speed of a car and distance covered
(iii) IQ level and economical status.
7. Suppose that the correlation between X and Y is . For constants a, b, c and d, what is
the correlation between the random variables U = aX + b and V = cY + d?
8. Suppose that X is the number of observed Successess in a sample of n observations,
where p is the probability of success on each observation, find the standard error of the
X
estimator P of p.
n
9. From previous experience the yield of a chemical process is known to be normally
distributed and 3. The past five days of plant operation have resulted in the
following percent yields:
91.6, 88.75, 90.8, 89.95 and 91.3
Find a 95% confidence interval on the true mean yield.
10. The dean of a college wants to use the mean of a random sample to estimate the
average amount of time students take to get from one class to the next class and he
wants to be able to assert with 99% confidence that the error is atmost 0.25 minutes. If it
can be presumed from experience that 1.4 mts, how large a sample will he have to
take?
GROUP - II Marks : 4 x 12.5 = 50

11. a) Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock
resistance. The results from 100 disks are summarized as follows:

Shock resistance
high low
Scratch resistance
high 70 9
low 16 5

i) If a disk is selected at random, what is the probability that its scratch resistance is
high and its shock resistance is high?
ii) If a disk is selected at random, what is the probability that its scratch resistance is
high or its shock resistance is high?
iii) Consider the event that a disk has high scratch resistance and the event that a
disk has high shock resistance. Are these two events mutually exclusive? (6)
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b) Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past 95% of
highly successful products received good reviews, 60% of moderatly successful
products received good review, and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In
addition, 40% of products have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately
successful, and 25% have been poor products.
i) What is the probability that a product attains a good review?
ii) If a new design attains a good review, What is the probability that it will be highly
successful product?
iii) If a product does not attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a
highly successful product? (6.5)
12. a) The phone lines to an airline reservation system are occupied 40% of the time.
Assume that the events that the lines are occupied on successive calls are
independent. Assume that 10 calls are placed to the airline.
i) What is the probability that for exactly three calls the lines are occupied?
ii) What is the probability that for at least one call the lines are not occupied?
iii) What is the expected number of calls in which the lines are all occupied? (6)
b) The life of a semiconductor laser at a constant power is normally distributed with a
mean of 7000 hours and a standard deviation of 600 hours.
i) What is the probability that a laser fails before 5000 hours?
ii) What is the life in hours that 95% of the lasers exceed?
iii) If three lasers are used in a product and they are assumed to fail independently,
what is the probability that all three are still operating after 5000 hours? (6.5)
13. a) Determine the value of c that makes the function f XY x, y c x y, a joint probability

density function over the range 0 x 3 and 0 y x. Determine the following:


(6)
i) Marginal probability distributions f X x and f Y y
ii) E(X), E(Y).
iii) P(X < 1)
b) The grams of solids removed from a material (y) is thought to be related to the drying
time (x in hrs). Ten observations obtained from an experimental study follow: (6.5)

y 4.3 1.5 1.8 4.9 4.2 4.8 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.9
x 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0
(i) Fit a simple linear regression model for these data.
(ii) Based on these data what is the estimate of the mean grams of solids removed at
4.25 hours?

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14. a) Let X1, X2, .Xn be a random sample of size n from a population with mean and

variance 2 . (6)
2
i) Show that X is a biased estimator of 2 .
ii) Find the amount of bias in this estimator.
iii) What happens to the bias as the sample size n increases?
b) Consider the Poisson distribution with parameter . Find the maximum likelihood
estimator of , based on a random sample of size n. (6.5)
15. The following data represent the number of units of production per day turned out by 4
different operators using 4 different types of machines. (12.5)
Machine Type
A B C D
1 6 8 4 7
Operators 2 8 8 6 7
3 9 7 10 8
4 5 5 6 8
Using Analysis of variance technique, test whether there is any significant difference in
the mean productivity (i) due to operators (ii) due to the machines.

GROUP - III Marks : 1 x 20 = 20


16. a) Given the joint probability mass function. (10)

x y f XY x, y ,
-1 -2 1
8
-0.5 -1 1
4
0.5 1 1
2
1 2 1
8

Determine the following:


i) P X 0.5, Y 1.5
ii) E(X), E(Y), V(X) and V(Y)
iii) Conditional probability distribution of Y given that X = 1.
iv) Are X and Y independent.
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b) Determine the value of c that makes the function f x, y c e 2 x 3 y , a joint


probability density function over the range 0 x and x y
Determine the following:
i) P X 1, Y 2

ii) P1 X 2

iii) PY 3
iv) Conditional probability distribution of Y given X = 1. (10)
17. a) The overall distance travelled by a golf ball is tested by hitting the ball with Iron
Byron, a mechanical golfer with a swing. Ten randomly selected balls of two different
brands are tested and the overall distance measured. The data follow: (10)
Brand 1 : 275, 286, 287, 271, 283, 271, 279, 275, 263, 267
Brand 2: 258, 244, 260, 265, 273, 281, 271, 270, 263, 268
i) Test the hypothesis that both brands of ball have equal mean overall distance.
Use 0.05.
ii) Is an assumption of equal variances justified?
b) A company operates four machines three shifts each day. From production records,
the following data on the number of breakdowns are collected: (10)
Machines
Shift A B C D
1 41 20 12 16
2 31 11 9 14
3 15 17 16 10

Test the hypothesis (using 0.05) that breakdown are independent of the shift

using 2 distribution.

/END/
JU.

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