An Analysis of a Provincial Population in 2007

With populations all over the world migrating within and outside of national boundaries, it is worth looking at
the events that trigger a family (or part of a family) to migrate, but also to look at who is migrating.

(Source data: CIA World Fact Book - 2008)

The map above shows the status of migration in 2008 with the brown areas showing the source of the
majority of migrants and the blue, the areas that are hosting the migrants and it clear from this that most of
the migration is due to economics, although the affect of climate changes will not only add to the economic
reasons to migrate, but will increase the rate at which migration occurs.
From informal research it is also clear that the majority of the migrants are the young, leaving behind many
of the very young and the older generations and this has dismal consequences for the source areas,
especially the rural areas where the farmers are getting older and poverty is spreading.
Having been involved with assisting development in a south-east Asian province for many years it was
suggested that an analysis of the local population from census results would be useful; in an attempt to
ascertain the amount of internal and external migration amongst the population. The analysis of this
province clearly showed a pattern emerging and this is rapid urbanisation, mostly sourced from the rural
areas and that of the migrants, the majority are the younger people (aged 15 to 24), that are seeking
sustainable employment opportunity and many are heading towards the metropolitan areas for this
purpose. It was also clear from the analysis that although the majority of migrants were in the 15 to 24
years old category, there were a significant number of 25 to 45 year olds also leaving. In this instance
external migrants are those that are leaving the province; not necessarily emigrating abroad.
For any government authority these should be worrying statistics, as with a significant percentage of the
young and middle aged leaving an area, it raises questions about the future development of that area and
that an aging population provides greater dependency on public services and less revenue is raised for the
local government coffers. It then became an exercise to attempt to determine the source of the migrants
and this showed that the majority were coming from the rural villages; either migrating out of the province or
migrating to the urban areas within the province and this raised certain issues regarding revenue
generation, food production, public services provision (health, Education, Waste disposal, Potable water
etc) and also to attempt to determine the age differences between urban and rural areas, as this has
possible consequences in long term food production and the direction of service provision.
Analysing a population that is on the move first had to look at the internal migration to determine the
amount of drift from rural to urban areas and the results showed that four municipalities around the central
(capital) municipality had to host large percentage increases in their populations, putting inevitable stress
on public services, land resources and employment opportunity; any of which could lead to civil conflict
situations arising, although the area is known to be peaceful. Behind all migration trends are reasons for
migration and it is worthwhile to look at these.
Why are people migrating?
Shortage of employment Perceived employment opportunity in metropolitan areas.
Lack of livelihood development in rural areas.
Declining economic stability Cost of living increases / general inflation
Higher cost of agricultural inputs.
Climate change (general) Greater difficulty in food production.
Climate change (local) Annual Drought. Annual Flooding. Sea level rises.
Racial / Tribal conflict Not applicable in this province.
Political conflict Anti-authority group activities increasing.
Religious conflict Not applicable in this province yet.
Armed conflict
Who is it that is migrating?
The youth aged 15 to 24 years Mostly from sub-urban and rural areas.
Those aged 25 to 40 years Mostly from sub-urban and rural areas.
Skilled and semi-skilled Industrial to industrial areas.
Where are the migrants coming from?
Declining industrial areas Industrial to industrial areas.
Declining agricultural areas Rural to sub-urban.
Rural to industrial areas.
Urban and sub-urban areas To metropolitan areas.

It has not been possible to gain access to the age ranges in the villages, as the
census office only provided an age range table for the province, although it is hoped
to gain access for the next census, due in 2010.
The table (left) shows the age range of the provincial population at the last census
and as can be seen the percentage of population in certain age ranges declines from
the age 15 years through 44 years old and this shows that those in the age range 15
to 49 years old (working age) have a larger share of the burden to support the very
young and the elderly.
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
Under  1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to  15 to  20 to  25 to  30 to  35 to  40 to  45 to  50 to  55 to  60 to  65 to  70 
1 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 Plus

The graph (above) shows the population age range and the graph (below) shows the same population by
age range and gender and emphasises the greater number of young females that are leaving the province
to seek opportunities in the metropolitan areas where there are posts available in domestic service and
retail outlets. It is generally supposed that those that leave send part of their income home, but there is very

Core Studies Analysis

little evidence available to show if this happens although there is informal data to show that very little is
returned to the family home.
8.00%
7.00%
Male Female
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
Under  1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to  15 to  20 to  24 to  30 to  35 to  40 to  45 to  50 to  55 to  60 to  65 to  70 Plus
1 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69

(Male to Female population spread over the age ranges)

In many areas, such as the European Union, cross-border migration is legal for members of the union and
this has economic consequences to individual member states and also on the level of public services that
are provided and within the European Union there are border checks that show the population movements
and there are also tax and other records that support population analysis. However, in many developing
countries, few tax or other records are available, as many are below the poverty level and work within the
informal (black) market, therefore not providing a government with any true picture of its population.
Within the province under study there are two districts, both governed by a single governor, but with two
members within the national congress; one for each District. This allows individual congressmen to direct
funding towards their home districts and thus, providing an imbalance in development funding between the
two districts.
The analysis of the census documentation for the population showed that between two censuses the
annual population expansion rate had dropped dramatically from 2.54% to 1.23% and that there was a
definite and significant drift of population from District B to District A, where the majority of the commercial
and retail outlets are located. During the period between the two censuses the population of District A had
grown by 12.74% in comparison with District B where it had grown by only 6.68%.

(Blue = losses, Green = stable, Red = gains)

The map (above) shows the clear drift of people from one district to another and also identifies several
municipalities (M1, M6, M7, M8, M10 and M11) that have to host the internal migrants. From this, it can be
assumed that these municipalities will experience severe stress in public service provision and that the
provincial government will be expected to make allowances to ensure that the basic services are
maintained in the ‘popular’ municipalities and yet this can only be achieved with hindsight, as the number of
people migrating was not foreseen, due to the suddenness of its occurrence between two censuses.
As would be expected, the municipality marked M8 being the capital of the province attracts many of the
migrants and this is also the major commercial centre, hoping to find employment opportunity and yet M15,
being the centre of District 2 is seeing a decline in its population, as is the rest of the district other than M11
and M18, although in some of these municipalities there have been some gains in the rural villages even
though M14 is a major distribution centre for other municipalities in District 2, with M14 being where the
main highway fades into second quality roads.
Until this analysis there were only two community definitions, these being urban and other and extensive
analysis produced the definitions urban, sub-urban and rural and this made it possible to identify the larger
extent of the population movement or drift.
All governments, be they central or local have to plan their budget expenditures for public service provision
and thus knowing about the population’s placement and number is a very important factor and with the
erratic movements of this population it is very difficult to know what the situation will be like ten years
ahead, for planning and implementation purposes.
Given that in this province, as in many others, the majority of the rural population is involved in small
farming enterprises, some obvious conclusions can be drawn from the fact that many youth are leaving the
rural villages and these conclusions must include the social or cultural aspect that affects the decision to
move. The rural youth no longer wish to toil on the land in a hand to mouth existence; preferring to take
their chances in the urban areas hoping to find white collar employment, or taking the further step to move
to another area of the nation, to the metropolitan areas to seek opportunities.
There are also consequences for provincial planners in this change in population structure and as the table
below shows; there are both benefits and disadvantages in small and large populations.
Population: Benefit: Disadvantage:
High population Greater direct revenue Higher level of public services provision required.
Greater indirect revenue (Health, Education, Potable water, Waste disposal, etc).
Greater commercial activity Greater demand on imported commodities.

Low population Less direct revenue Lower level of public services provision required.
Less indirect revenue (Health, Education, Potable water, Waste disposal, etc).
Lower commercial activity Lower retail outlet and domestic employment.

When planning several years ahead for public services provision, a local government has to not only
determine the number of structures and facilities required but also to ensure that there are sufficient trained
staff available as and when needed. With a migrating population; getting the details right is not possible and
political consequences can follow.
There is also the potential problem of land usage in the municipalities that have to host the migrants, being
that the arable agricultural land is not a large amount and the pressure to convert more agricultural land
into residential land is strong, especially around the urban areas. Zoning in the popular host municipalities
may have to be considered in order to restrict the amount of agricultural land lost to developers.
However, it is clear that from 2001 the provincial government put in place a long-term programme to
improve livelihoods in all sectors, although a considerable amount of investment was directed at agricultural
(food, abaca and coconut production), fisheries and livestock development and that given the general
budget restraints; the provincial authority has shown a considerable return on its investment, although, as
yet, this has not been large enough to interest the youth in staying in the rural or coastal areas. Whilst
politics has a role to play in enabling the provincial government to sustain this development, the authority

Core Studies Analysis

has remained in one political party although the leadership has changed with the new leadership having
retained the original programme.
Overall, it seems that the provincial government is undertaking the right strategies and maintaining
sustainable development at the same time as attempting to improve the infrastructure and public service
provision and yet, is severely restrained in this endeavour by its inability to track the annual population
statistics. Normally, a census every ten years is sufficient to allow a local government to plan for its future
service provision needs and this provincial government cannot hope to plan correctly given the suddenness
and number of people migrating within and outside of the province.
With many of the rural youth having little interest in working on the land and the need to produce more of
their own food to improve food security, the provincial government may have no option other than to
increase the budget put aside for agricultural development, although they now possess their own research
laboratory to improve local varieties of rice and other field crops. How to retain the youth on the land is a
priority of the provincial government and they may need outside help to achieve some of this target.
Sourcing potable water is becoming a major problem in this province as less rainfall and higher mean
temperatures have caused water tables to fall and there are already some municipalities where water
shortages are a daily occurrence, although the forested uplands are ideal water catchment areas, but the
large expenditure requirement to harvest and store water from the upland areas is prohibitive in these times
of economic restraint. There are many rivers in the province, fed from the uplands going down through the
important rice production deltas and out to the sea, although some of the delta areas are at risk from the
rising sea level, although at this time the threat is minor.

(Provincial river systems)

As a developing nation it has the usual economic and climate change problems and as, on the economic
side the country is in direct competition with Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, the two Koreas and
Indonesia, this country will have to depend upon its own recourses in order to build its economy. The buffer
countries for China are well positioned to compete directly with this country and within this country and in
this particular province there is little to offer other than some marine products, abaca, copra and coconut
oil.
Without the youth there cannot be long-term development and without development, there will be fewer youth.
Thus, we have a province with a fluid population, with many of the young leaving; low producing (but
improving) agriculture, livestock and marine sectors although the province is largely dependent on
agriculture, little tourism, no mineral assets, a hard working and forward looking government; in a highly
competitive economic environment, with the effects of climate change already apparent and yet, the
population is generally supportive of the efforts being made by the provincial government staff.

Core Studies Analysis

Although a producer of raw materials from abaca and coconut, the province has only a small capacity to
process and wholesale these assets and it is thought that the support for a processing industry in the
province is essential for the future. For some years, the provincial leaders have been attempting to interest
private enterprise to invest in a greater level of processing, although it is accepted that the electrical power
generating capability required to facilitate a greater processing capacity needs to be increased as do the
port services to handle bulk loads.
What comes through is a classic ‘catch 22’ situation whereby the province needs the youth in order to build
the economy and push the province to the next stage of its development and the situation where the youth
are leaving because there is not enough short-term development to encourage them to stay, although they
have falsely set their ambitions well beyond their abilities and would rather be impoverished in a
competitive ‘white collar’ situation with high unemployment than low income bound to a rural setting.
What also comes through strongly is the need for investment in processing the available assets that are a
major part of the province’s economy and another ‘catch 22’ situation whereby without investment in
processing, economic development may be restricted and without economic development there is less
likelihood of commercial investment.

Core Studies – July 2010

Core Studies Analysis