VinodKumar,ScientistE(Retired)

IndiaMeteorologicalDepartment

Address:ShyamBhawan,AshokNagar,
RoadNumber:11,KankarbaghColony,Patna800020

Email:vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com

Website:shraddhasuman.blogspot.in

Dated:8thJune2017

Thisyearmonsoonseasonalrainfallforthecountryasawholeislikelytobe97%ofthelongperiodaverage
withanerrorof06%.InFigure1,ahighisseennear040W010Walong40S(redyellowgreen),andlowis
seenbetween20W0(blue)between35S25S.onehighandonelowisrequiredfornormalrainfall.

Figure1:Anomalyof850GeopotentialheightApriltoMay2017


Anotherhighisseenbetween0060Eandlowisseenbetween060080E.Butlowisweak.Iftwohigh
lowcombinationsareobserved,thenabovenormalrainfallisforecast.

Figure2:Anomalyof850GeopotentialheightMay2017

Here dominant high pressure field is seen from 160E090W along 40S. Small blue spot (low) is seen near
080Wforthemonth of May2017.So,thereisnochanceof ElNino this yearasSepOctNovaverageONI
valueisnotlikelytoreach0.5C.InJanuaryandFebruary2017,lowdominatedfieldwasobservedbutfrom
March onwards high dominated pressure field has been observed. It is based on my paper entitled
ForecastingElNinoeventsforNino3.4regionpublishedinJulyissueofIGUJournalfromHyderabad.Incase
oflowdominatedanomalyElNinoisforecast.