Tapasije Mishra Report

DOCUMENT FOR DISCUSSION
Bouncing at the Bottom;

rather than a sharp uptick
Tapasije Mishra RBI

Govt.
Pvt. Sector
22nd April, 2013
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

Executive Summary
2013 is an interesting year with equity market participants positive and corporate India very
cautious
Significant positive momentum created by Ministry of Finance; strong ETF liquidity
Both inflation and growth moderating; no pickup in private capex in 2013
Conflict between lag and lead indicators :
CV sales remain poor in December; stocks are pricing in an upturn; our analyst has a ive view
on current prices
Toll roads witnessing traffic declines in past 6 months
The Indian consumer to feel a big squeeze
Rise in middle class UN-employment; job creation not yet on the national agenda
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 2

Actionable Ideas
Price MktCap EPS (Rs) PE (x)

(Rs) (US$bn) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E
Top Buy
ICICI Bank 1,086 24.06 56.1 72.7 86.4 19.4 14.9 12.6
Bharti Airtel 317 23.17 12.8 6.6 10.9 24.7 48.4 29.0
Cairn India 297 10.85 42.3 57.7 47.2 7.0 5.1 6.3
Idea Cellular 115 7.33 2.6 3.1 4.2 43.6 37.1 27.2
Cipla 384 5.92 14.2 19.6 21.0 26.9 19.6 18.2
Dr Reddy's Lab 1,808 5.88 90.5 96.3 111.9 20.0 18.8 16.2
United Spirits 1,960 4.75 18.8 36.5 44.3 104.0 53.6 44.2
Jaiprakash Associates 75 3.08 3.0 4.9 7.8 25.2 15.3 9.7
Glenmark Pharma 495 2.58 21.8 23.5 28.3 22.7 21.0 17.5
ING Vysya Bank 549 1.27 30.4 39.3 49.7 18.1 14.0 11.0
United Phosphorus 126 1.12 13.1 15.8 18.5 9.6 8.0 6.8
IRB Infra 122 0.79 14.9 15.1 14.6 8.2 8.1 8.4
Jyothy Laboratories 166 0.52 2.8 4.0 7.0 60.1 41.4 23.6
Top Sell
ITC 302 44.88 7.9 9.4 11.3 38.3 32.1 26.6
Hindustan Unilever 447 18.56 11.9 15.2 17.0 37.5 29.5 26.3
Neutral
Coal India 319 38.75 23.4 26.2 26.9 13.6 12.2 11.8
Larsen & Toubro 1,495 17.52 72.1 79.8 80.2 20.7 18.8 18.6
Prices as on April 5th, 2013

CV Sales Dropped 30% Between Mar-12 and Jan-13, Inventories Build Up
Decline in CV sales from 99K to 69K per month in last 10 months

Y-o-Y CV Sales Growth 99
37% 35%
32% 32%
30%
26% 79
74 73 74 72
19% 70 70 69
67
12%
6%
2% 61
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jun-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Apr-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Mar-12
May-12
-6%
-22%
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*
After witnessing significant upward movement in Q3 FY13, Auto stocks are now correcting, in line with fundamentals
Ashok Leyland Bajaj Auto Eicher Motor Hero Motocorp M&M Maruti Suzuki Tata Motor TVS Motor
125
11%
120
115 -2%
110 -2%
105
-4%
100
95 -8%
90 -7%
85
-8%
80
-18%
2-Jan-13
13-Dec-12
11-Feb-13
21-Feb-13
1-Feb-13
3-Dec-12
23-Dec-12
13-Mar-13
3-Mar-13
12-Jan-13
22-Jan-13
*Annualized data based on 10M FY13 actuals

Source: MOSPI, SIAM, Bloomberg PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 4
Toll Roads Traffic Growth Rate Flat or Negative in 9MFY13
Declining Traffic Growth Across Key Freight Corridors on the Golden Quadrilateral
PCU Growth (9M FY11) PCU Growth (9M FY12) PCU Growth (9M FY13)
9%
6%
5%
5% 5% 5%
4%
2% 3% 3%
2%
1%
1%
-4%
Surat Dahisar Mumbai Pune Indore Edlabad Jaipur Kishangarh Bharuch Surat
Road Project Surat - Dahisar Mumbai Pune Indore Edlabad Jaipur Kishangarh Bharuch - Surat
Length (Kms) 239 206 203 90 65
Rate of change in
-81% -2% -160% -68% -50%
growth (9MFY13/12)
Surat to Dahisar Mumbai to Pune Jaipur to Kishangarh Bharuch to Surat

Connectivity Part of SH-27
section of NH 8 section of NH 4 section of NH-8 section of NH 8

Airport Passenger Traffic Down 4% in FY13
Total Pax in Mn
Mumbai Delhi Hyderabad Chennai Bangalore Kolkata Others

162
157
g=-4%
143 g=13%
g=16% 51
124 50
117 44
g=-7% 109 g=14%
96 g=21% 37 10
32 10
31 10 13
12
25 8 12 13
7
13
10 7 10 12
6 8
9 8
8 11 11 8
10 7
9 7
6 36
6 30 34
24 26
20 23
26 26 29 31 30
22 23
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*
Decline in traffic at all major airports, similar to the trend witnessed during FY09
*Annualized data based on 9M FY13 actuals
Source: AAI PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6

Why is IEX Power at Rs.3.70 ?
Energy supply and peak deficit (%)

(%) India - Supply Deficit India - Peak Deficit Southern Zone - Supply Deficit
20
17.7 17.9 17.5
16.7 16.9 16.5
15.5 16.0 15.5
15 13.7
13.1 13.1
12.4 12.2 12.4
11.5 11.4 11.4
10.6 10.9
10.1 9.6 10.0 9.6 9.9
9.5
10 9.3 9.3 9.0 9.2
8.6 9.0 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.4
8.2 8.2 7.7 7.9
7.6
0
Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Short term power tariff data for January 2013 (Rs./kwh) - MoM
Bilateral IEX UI - NEW Grid
7.0 6.6
6.1
5.4 5.4 5.6
5.0 5.1 5.0 5.1 Elections?
5.3 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.74.5 4.9 4.7
4.5 4.6
4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3
4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9
3.6 4.1 3.6 3.7
3.33.3 3.33.2 3.3 3.2
3.5 3.0 2.8 3.0
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Short term
1.9
1.5 power rates
1.8 will rise!
JSPL Buy
0.0
Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Source: CEA PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 7

7.5% Average Decline in Container Traffic at Ports in Q3 FY13
Cargo handled at Major Ports
In '000 tons Feb-13 Feb-12 %yoy YTD '13 YTD '12 %yoy
POL 14,087 14,830 -5% 1,68,232 1,63,316 3%
Iron ore 1,767 4,079 -57% 25,442 56,226 -55%
Fertilisers - Finished 126 500 -75% 7,135 11,825 -40%
Fertilisers - Raw 576 675 -15% 7,055 7,438 -5%
Coal - Thermal 5,460 4,584 19% 53,063 45,762 16%
Coal - Coking 1,850 1,998 -7% 25,973 25,976 0%
Containers - Tonnage 9,269 8,914 4% 1,09,172 1,09,511 0%
Containers - TEUs' 000s 604 564 7% 7,035 7,094 -1%
Other 11,105 8,151 36% 1,01,898 90,775 12%
Total 44,240 43,731 1.2% 4,97,970 5,10,829 -3%
Container volumes at Major Ports + Mundra + Pipavav
In '000 TEUs FY12 FY11 yoy (%) 9MFY13 9MFY12 yoy (%)
Major ports 7,768 7,537 3.1 5,763 5,842 (1.4)
Mundra 1,520 1,228 23.8 1,262 1,099 14.9
Pipavav 639 497 28.5 405 474 (14.5)
Total of above 9,927 9,262 7.2 7,430 7,415 0.2
Source: IPA PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 8

Significant Equity Paper Supply in Pipeline
Rs Cr. FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 (11m)
IPO/ FPO 52,219 2,034 46,941 46,182 10,464 6,019
Rights 32,519 12,622 8,321 9,594 2,375 8,225
QIP 25,770 189 43,968 24,550 1,713 10,658
110,508 14,845 99,231 80,326 14,552 24,902
No. of Issues FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 (11m)
IPO/ FPO 90 21 44 57 34 8
Rights 30 23 29 24 16 13
QIP 38 2 67 47 11 13
158 46 140 128 61 34

IDFC Recommended Stocks

Telecom: Ring Out the Old, Ring in the New
Analyst: Hitesh Shah
Why are we bullish on Indian Telecom sector?

Declining competitive intensity as fringe players focusing on profitable growth; number of players down to 6-8, only
marginally ahead of 5-7 in 2007
Incumbents have gained market share despite being rational in the market place
Realization should see an uptick over the medium-term: freebies withdrawal, tariff increase and higher data usage
Valuations (5.5 6.0x FY14E EBITDA) offer 30-40% upside over the next 12-18 months
What is yet to be addressed?

Regulatory proposals like auction roadmap, re-farming, domestic roaming charges and M&A guidelines
Entry strategy of Reliance Infotel (Greenfield, Brownfield or only LTE) is still a black box
In our view, Greenfield entry in a mature voice market makes little business sense
Preferred Stocks
IDFC Price Mkt Cap Target FY14E (x) FY12-15E CAGR (%)
Company
Rating (Rs) (US$ Bn) Price (Rs) EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
Bharti Airtel OP 274 18.94 390 5.8 25.0 9.6 8.1

Idea Cellular OP 106 6.39 135 6.2 25.0 16.7 30.3
Reliance Comm. OP 63 2.36 100 6.0 13.0 8.2 9.6
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 4th April 2013 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 11
~12% Market Share Critical to Break Even, Consolidation is Imperative
TTM Market Share (%)

Revenues
(Rs Bn) #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8
A.P. 116 41 18 11 10 9 6 3 2
Assam 26 32 22 16 16 9 2 2 0
Bihar 73 44 13 12 10 7 5 5 4
Delhi 123 37 28 11 9 8 3 3 1
Gujarat 84 38 19 18 7 7 5 5 1
Haryana 31 29 23 19 14 8 5 2 1
H.P. 11 41 15 15 9 9 7 4 0
J&K 16 40 24 16 9 6 3 3 0
Karnataka 106 47 15 12 9 7 6 3 2
Kerala 63 33 23 17 14 6 4 2 1
Kolkata 38 30 27 12 12 5 4 4 3
M.P. 68 32 25 19 8 8 7 1 0
Maharashtra 121 26 24 21 10 6 6 5 1
Mumbai 97 32 21 13 11 8 6 3 3
North East 16 40 23 12 12 8 3 2 0
Orissa 30 39 15 14 11 9 7 4 2
Punjab 57 35 21 18 10 7 4 3 3
Rajasthan 74 40 22 11 8 6 5 4 4
Tamil Nadu 130 33 23 21 7 7 5 3 1
UP (E) 91 28 28 12 9 7 7 5 4
UP (W) 63 26 23 19 8 8 7 6 4
W.B. 49 33 26 12 7 6 5 4 4
Airtel Vodafone Rcom Idea BSNL/MTNL

Tata Teleservices Uninor Aircel Others

IT Services: Sentiment improving Business to follow
Analyst: Hitesh Shah
We are incrementally positive on the Indian IT Services sector

Macro data points to recovery in the US; pipeline/ sentiment has improved
Discretionary spend returning in most verticals in North America (excl. Investment Banks and Telecom)
S&P 500 operating EPS has turned the corner; Indian IT revenues is highly correlated with a 3- quarter lag
However, bad news is not over yet; CY13 IT budgets to be largely flat and deal closures are taking long
Stock picking is name of the game - we prefer growth at reasonable price
Pick stocks where improving macro environment is not captured in valuations
Tier1 stock returns to reflect earnings growth; some room for re-rating
Small-mid cap stocks to see valuation re-rating and earnings growth
Prefer Infosys (OP) vs.TCS (N) Valuations to converge as growth rates converge
Sell HCL Tech (UP) Hiring incongruent with deal win announcement
Like KPIT (expertise in Auto-electronics, JDEdwards and SAP) and Persistent (play on IP driven business)
Key Recommendations
Price Mkt Cap Target FY14E (x) FY12-15E CAGR
Company Rating
(Rs) (US$ Bn) Price (Rs) EV/EBITDA PE EBITDA EPS
Infosys OP 2,880 30.00 3,200 10.2 15.6 10.4 13.6
TCS N 1508 53.81 1,430 13.2 18.23 16.6 19.1
HCL Tech UP 743 9.41 650 7.8 13.8 19.9 22.5
KPIT Cummins OP 94 0.31 150 4.1 6.7 28.3 28.3
Persistent Systems OP 541 0.39 620 4.7 9.5 20.9 23.2
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 4th April 2013 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 13
Capital Goods: No Recovery in Sight
Analyst: Bhoomika Nair
We remain underweight on the capital goods sector

New project announcements plummet by 74% Y-o-Y suggesting a deteriorating capex cycle
Challenges in execution remain; projects under implementation but stalled continue to touch new highs
Investment concerns persist on matters such as land acquisition, environmental clearances, FSAs etc
Overcapacity and regulatory hurdles to drive slower recovery in areas such as Metals, cement, refineries & power
Likely to witness slower order inflows and backlogs providing limited visibility for earnings
Recommend selling Thermax (extremely rich valuations and possible disappointment on order inflows) and Voltas
(EMP cycle recovery to take time, margins continue to decline, higher competition in unitary cooling poses a risk)
Recommend buying Havells (for their strong brand and distribution network driving a sustainable 14% CAGR in
earnings) and Crompton (since its risk reward is quite favourable with most negatives known and priced)
Preferred Stocks
Price Mkt Cap Target FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)

Company
(Rs) (Rs Bn) Price (Rs) EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
Havells India 602 75 700 9.3 15.5 9% 14%
Crompton 91 58 115 7.9 13.0 6% 10%

Consumption: Resilience in adversity
Analyst: Nikhil Vora
Positive view on consumption is not misplaced
We remain positive on consumer space given the relatively protected consumer demand environment and a
continued premiumisation trend being witnessed across categories
Worldwide alcohol companies have a higher market cap than tobacco companies, but not in India. With global
players no controlling the alcohol space, we expect this mismatch to correct going forward.
The cable distribution space stands to be the only structural play in the Indian media sector.
Top Buys: United Spirits, Jyothy Labs, Den Networks, Jain Irrigation
Company Price Mkt Cap Target FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
Reco
(Rs) (US$ Bn) Price (Rs) EV/EBITDA P/E EBITDA EPS
Jyothy Labs 159 0.48 OP 250 14.0 22.6 63 59.5
United Spirits * 1824 4.3 OP * 19.8 41.2 25 53.4
DEN Networks 188 0.5 OP 250 11.4 34.9 70 57.3
Jain Irrigation** 68 0.4 OP 100 6 7.4 22* 53*
Top Sells: ITC, HUL

Company Price Mkt Cap Target FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)
Reco
ITC 300 42.8 OP 260 18 26.5 19.5 19.9
Hindustan Unilever 470 18.7 OP 442 21.3 27.7 15 19
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 12 th March 2013: *- Target price under review, awaiting clarity on Diageo managementPRIVATE
s strategy&for USL
CONFIDENTIAL 15
**yoy growth in FY14
United Spirits Poised to be the No 1 consumer stock in India
Indian Alcohol Beverages sector to be rerated

Diageo and Pernod Ricard, the two largest global players, now control 60%+ of the Indian spirits market
Profits and Best practices key focus for both Diageo and Pernod, hence terms of trade will improve significantly
Consequently, the Indian liquor industry is set to move to a new league of growth and value creation
Diageo deal to steer United Spirits towards premiumisation and deleveraging

Diageo to re-instate focus towards premiumization and value rather than volume
Premiumisation case in point: With 1.6x higher realization per case, Pernod earned 12x PBT of UNSP s in FY12
Diageo deal would infuse capital to the tune of Rs33bn into USL (treasury stock + preferential allotment), aiding in
significant balance sheet de-leveraging (currently 60% of balance sheet)
Alcohol vs Tobacco MCap: India to revert to global norms?

Worldwide - Aggregate market capitalization of alcoholic beverages sector is 1.5x that of tobacco companies. However, in
India, alcoholic beverages companies aggregate market capitalization is at 1/5th that of tobacco companies
We believe this gap is poised to narrow, and UNSP will lead the same
Pernod vs United Spirits (FY12) M -Cap of Tobacco & Alcohol companies
Realisation per case (LHS) PBT per case (RHS)
($bn) Tobacco Brewers & Distillers
1,400 500 1000 875

594
1,200
400
1,000 1.6x 100
800 300 43.3
600 12x 200 8.8

10
400
100
200
0 0 1
United Spirits Pernod World India

DEN Networks - best proxy to play digitization!
The cable distribution space remains the only structural play in Indian Media space
With analog signals being switched off in Delhi and Mumbai (as per Phase-I deadline of 30th Oct 2012) without any
major hiccups, the seriousness of all stakeholders and the Ministry is well established.
With Phase-II on the cards, DEN is adding 350,000+ digital subscribers a month with a target to reach 3.5m digital
subscribers by FY13 end and leverage on its ~5m subscriber universe in Phase-II.
As India moves from a 40m+ digital subscriber base to a 200m base over the next 3-4years, we see the mix of
DTH:cable shifting from 90:10 currently to 50:50 on incremental basis. Hence, we believe cable will lead the
digitization rollout from hereon (evident in DEN adding 1m+ subs in Q4FY13 against 0.1m net addition by Dish TV)
With digitization to improve declarations (albeit with a lag), we see the annuity-driven model of distribution coming
to the fore and resulting in superior financial performance for DEN Networks (57% earnings CAGR, FY12-14E). We
see merit in investing in the space
Digitization deadlines set by the government

Phase Areas suggested Deadline
30th October 2012 (yet to be implemented in
Phase I Four Metros of Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai
Chennai)
31st March 2013 (expected to be implemented
Phase II Cities with a Population more than one million
with a 2-3 month delay)
Phase III All Urban areas (Municipal Corp/ Municipalities) 30th September 2014
Phase IV Rest of India 31st Dec 2014

Jain Irrigation worst is behind!
Jain Irrigation has changed its MIS business model to counter higher working capital requirements due to delay in subsidy
recovery from the government. While this is impacting near term earnings, it is underpinning strong improvement in balance
sheet metrics
In the state of Maharashtra (which accounts of 45%+ of total MIS sales), JISL has started recovering 100% of the
capital upfront from farmers (with 50% as post dated cheques of 180-200 days).
Further, JISL is strategically focusing on states where the subsidy disbursements have been relatively better. As a
result, JISL has limited its operations in the some of the southern states and is focussing on states such as
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan
Recent capital infusion of US$200, will impart JISL the much needed financial muscle to leverage on the underlying growth
in the MIS industry and efficiently manage cash flows
NBFC, now operational, will further aid in resolving the dependence towards government subsidies in the longer term.
Discussions for value unlocking in the fruit processing unit. Development would be a key trigger and remains to be a critical
monitorable
Days outstanding
270
240
Overall
receivables (in
210
days outstanding)
on a decline
180
Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research

Jyothy Laboratories The next big thing!
From a limited opportunity play
Limited opportunity play (USD500m) Presence in only 3 mass-end categories and one flagship brand - Ujala
Akin to GCPL in 2008 GCPL in 2008 had limited product portfolio (low growth visibility)
Promoter-driven business for past 30 years, without professional management
US$500m US$5bn
To a whole new scale!!
Post the Henkel acquisition, market opportunity up 10x to
Premium
US$5bn in India
Premium
Entry into premium categories Henkel infuses a
Mid
premium brand- width into a hitherto mass market portfolio Mid
Mass
Mass
JYL JYL +Henkel
Management bandwidth scaled up.. Business integration complete..

Spearheading the change in management is new CEO Mr S Raghunandan, a turnaround veteran
The new team, brought in by new CEO, has 15-25 years of experience from across the top consumer names like
HUL, Marico, Colgate, Paras, Sara Lee etc.
Re-organisation of management team as well as the re-alignment and integration of the two businesses (Jyothy
and Henkel) is almost complete and the management is now likely to start exploit brand portfolio in FY14.
Poised to enter the big league JYL can potentially be another Godrej Consumer Products, which has grown
over the last 5 years through acquiring successfully and has increased market cap by10x in the process

ITC Structural headwinds to catch up
Threat for a cigarette de-rate is very real

The global clampdown on cigarettes will result in de-rate of global cigarette majors
ITCs valuation gap with global majors has expanded to over 50% from 20% 10 year back with volume growth
difference having narrowed. Expect the global de-rate to have a rub-off effect on ITCs cigarette valuations.
Domestic environment getting increasingly disruptive.. FY14 cigarette volumes expected to decline
ITCs last five year cigarette volume CAGR is 1.3% as against 6% for the five years prior to that.
FY13 volume growth is expected to be muted at 1%. With overall tax incidence increasing by over 20% in FY14 as
well, we expect decline in volumes for the year.
As the regulatory environment continues to worsen (potential ad valorem structure, states banning tobacco,
unprecedented VAT hikes), the perceived volume growth story for cigarettes in India is likely to prove illusory.
FMCG strategy flawed; other businesses will dilute return profile

Failure to get even 15% share in any category in FMCG despite having the strongest distribution and investing
huge capital (Rs45bn) dilutes economic benefits of this space.
ITC looks to pump in 75% of capex into segments like Hotels and Paper, which are at best P/B businesses and
lower ITCs overall return profile.
We believe the structural risk to the cigarette business will weigh down on business fundamentals and reflect in the
stock underperformance in the future.

Hindustan Unilever The pain is evident
Pain points evident in core portfolio

HULs volume growth is at a 3 year low and is expected to stay muted in the medium term.
Continued pressure on Fair and Lovely, regional issues with Wheel, and a slower rate of growth at the premium
end are impacting the core portfolio growth profile.
Unileverisation to cap new product pipeline

HULs thrust to boost its innovation funnel is limited to Unilever categories. Unlike other global majors (P&G,
Nestle, Agrotech) the companys global portfolio has been largely tapped.
Of the 14 billion dollar brands in Unilever portfolio, 9 are in India and the others are not relevant to the Indian
market!! Not Indianising will result in the innovation funnel drying up, thereby making it harder for HUL to achieve
relevant volume growth in the long term.
Competitive intensity and higher royalty payments to restrict margin expansion

Competitive intensity remains high in laundry and personal products which will keep A&P spends high in the
medium term.
Further, a 30-40bp annual increase in royalty restricts the inherent margin expansion potential in the business.
The structural slowdown in volumes, revenues and hence profits will take its toll on valuations.

Oil & Gas: Cairn offers value, ONGC benefits from higher gas prices
Analyst: Prakash Joshi
Industry fundamentals have improved over last few months

Improvement of ~20% in Asian benchmark GRMs to ~US$ 7-8 / bbl levels
Recent moves on diesel pricing and differential pricing for bulk diesel are a positive, may reduce gross subsidies
by ~35% for FY14E vs FY13E levels (assuming average price hikes of Rs4/ltr over FY14E)
Exploration approvals for CAIRN/RIL and proposals for increasing gas prices gaining momentum
Valuations have run up sharply, with 15% increase in sector over last one month (BSE O&G index)
However, we remain underweight

Do not see the upsurge in GRMs sustainable; prevalence of adequate supply and extremely muted demand
For petrochemicals, the overhang of ME led supply additions continues spreads unlikely to compress
Government support remains significant for OMCs (~Rs 590 Bn required from Government even in FY14E)
Gas price increase proposal remains only a proposal, exact quantum & applicability is a crucial monitorable
Preferred Stocks
Price Mkt Cap Target FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR

Company
ONGC 317 1.00 296 4.0 10.6 1.1 0.5
Cairn India 297 0.21 382 3.2 6.3 15.2 6.3
GAIL 340 0.16 407 6.3 9.7 10.1 0.5
Petronet LNG 145 0.04 192 6.0 9.5 9.3 4.3
Indraprastha Gas 270 0.01 337 5.8 11.7 0.5 2.3

Top Picks Oil & Gas
Company Key arguments

Incremental diesel price hikes are a positive, reduced subsidy contribution can increase net realisations
A gas price hike could increase earnings by 19% - this is despite assuming a corresponding increase in
ONGC share of subsidy to 85% for ONGC and the overall upstream share to ~40%
Stock remains undervalued compared to regional peers, with an Ev/boe of US$5/boe, a ~80% discount to
peers
Only pure play crude linked upstream player in the country

Cairn India Steady production growth, strong crude prices and globally competitive costs
Potential to increase recoverable reserves by ~50% over the next two years
Availability of LNG
Petronet LNG
Strong pricing power

GAIL Enjoy near monopoly status in Gas Transmission & Distribution
Ability to source higher LNG

Indraprastha Gas Enjoy near monopoly status in City Gas Distribution network
Ability to place higher priced LNG into its markets without compromising gross margins

Infrastructure: De-leveraging is a Nearer Term Solution than Reforms
Analyst: Shirish Rane
Selective opportunities exist in the infrastructure space

Reduction in interest rates and de-leveraging through asset sales are key near term triggers
Prefer players with relatively lower fuel & tariff risks in the power sector; with greater cash flow visibility and asset
monetization potential in the infrastructure space
Valuations at 0.5x 1.0x P/B for most players are attractive
What is yet to be addressed?

Decision on coal & gas price pooling & on tariff hikes for imported coal based power plants
Expedite environment/ forest clearances for mining and infrastructure projects
Decisions prone to litigation and may not be easy to implement
Preferred Stocks

Company
(Rs) (US$ Bn) Price (Rs) EV/EBITDA P/B EBITDA EPS
Jaiprakash Associates 63.8 2.5 112 7.6 0.6 35.2 61.2
JPVL 25.6 1.2 45 10.1 1.0 48.5 13.4
IRB 114 0.7 180 6.8 1.0 17.1 (1.0)
KSK 47.5 0.3 127 9.7 0.4 66.8 218.7
Adani Ports & SEZ 140.8 5.1 164 12.2 3.8 35.3 16.4

Top Picks Infrastructure & Power
Commissioning of assets & pick-up in cement utilization to improve cash flows

Key beneficiary of interest rate cuts (-1% drop to lead to 14% higher FY14 EPS)
Jaiprakash Associates
Monetization of west cement business (~5 MTPA) - a key near term trigger
Attractively valued at 8.4x PER and 7.6x EV/EBITDA (FY14E consolidated)
Low fuel availability risk; strong cash flows from Kharcham

Jaiprakash Power Ventures Stage-II forest clearance for Amelia (North) captive coal block received
Limited 70% of Nigrie thermal power station is open upside potential to tariffs
Attractively priced at 13.1x FY14E PER, 10.1x FY14E EV/EBITDA & 1.0x FY14E P/BV
Strong cash flows; 14% CAGR (FY12-14) expected in cash earnings

IRB Ability to execute new projects worth ~Rs 55 Bn by FY15 using own cash flows
Stock trades at 7.8x FY14 earnings and 3.8x FY14 cash earnings
Fuel supply for Wardha Warora has improved; Gare-Palma-III to meet fuel requirement for Phase I for 1,800 MW
Commissioning of 3,600 MW Mahanadi power plant to start from Mar-13
KSK
For Phase II, PPA with GUVNL is conditional on fuel supply limited risk
Valuations at 4.5x FY14E PER, 9.7x FY13E EV/EBITDA and 0.4x FY13E P/BV
Strong entry barriers to the business makes it an attractive asset play

High cargo visibility and stable cash flows through long term contracts
Adani Ports & SEZ Abbot Point divestment to cut consol debt by 50% to ~Rs100bn and materially reduce leverage profile
Earnings growth to remain strong - 16% earnings CAGR over FY12-14E
SEZ land bank of 18k acres has long term strategic value
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 25 th January 2013 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 25
Metals: Underweight
Analyst: Prakash Joshi
We remain underweight on the metals

Global demand moderating after a decade of strong growth as Chinas FAI investment growth decelerates and risk
in Europe looms large, as macroeconomic data continues to remain weak;
Rising per tonne capex costs and supply disruptions to support global raw material prices; operating margins to
compress further
Investment led demand in India to subside as macroeconomic indicators and GFC formation weakens. India losing
its raw material cost advantage; an overcapacity-led shift in domestic steel market to export parity pricing to hurt
realizations
Rising CWIP and lower profitability to lower return ratios; multiple de-rating not priced in. Stocks would likely
remain range-bound in near term.
We remain positive on JSPL (for their strong cash flow generation, higher backward integration and superior balance
sheet). Increasing power merchant tariff and signing of Utkal B1 mining lease can act as a huge positive trigger
We remain negative on Tata Steel, (on continuing uncertainty on loss making European operations; declining
profitability for future domestic projects and rising leverage, led by higher capex intensity).
Preferred Stocks

Company
JSPL 345 0.12 427 6.4 8.3 9% -1%

JSPL Scenario Analysis
Best case assumptions Base case assumptions Worst case assumptions

units units units
Steel business EBITDA
Steel business EBITDA Rs m 60,654 Steel business EBITDA Rs m 60,654 Rs m 52,764
(sarda impact)
Steel business multiple x 6 Steel business multiple x 5.5 Steel business multiple x 5
Value for steel business 180 Value for steel business 148 Value for steel business 73
Long term power tariffs Rs/unit 4.5 Long term power tariffs Rs/unit 4.0 Long term power tariffs Rs/unit 3.5
Fuel costs for Tamnar I Rs/unit 0.6 Fuel costs for Tamnar I Rs/unit 0.6 Fuel costs for Tamnar I Rs/unit 0.7
Fuel costs for Tamnar II Rs/unit 0.8 Fuel costs for Tamnar II Rs/unit 1.1 Fuel costs for Tamnar II Rs/unit 1.4
Valuation for Tamnar I Rs/share 233 Valuation for Tamnar I Rs/share 216 Valuation for Tamnar I Rs/share 179
Valuation for Tamnar II - Valuation for Tamnar II - only Valuation for Tamnar II - only
Rs/share 132 Rs/share 63 Rs/share 49
entire 2,400 MW 1,200 MW 1,200 MW
Total per share value Rs/share 545 Total per share value Rs/share 427 Total per share value Rs/share 301
(Rs/share) Difference of multiple - Steel business Impact of SARDA mine Valuation for Tamnar I Valuation for Tamnar II
600 545
427 132
425
301 63
49 233
250 216
179
-
-
75 148 180
115
(42)
-100
Worst case Base case Best case
Source: Bloomberg, WSD

27
Auto: Hopes of demand recovery dashed again
Analyst: Pramod Kumar
Selective opportunities exist in the auto space

HCV demand extremely weak closer to bottom; moderation in demand for UVs and diesel cars
Demand pullback looks elusive in 4Q FY13; cut in FY14 estimates certain
Preference for stocks with export tilt and leverage
Recommend selling Tata Motors (Stock factoring in 40% premium over BMW for JLR while ignoring competition
launches and Jaguar dependence for growth; standalone business structurally weak). Dont see upside in M&M. Hero
MotoCorp a value trap. Recommend buying Maruti Suzuki post steep fall (forex to cushion volume miss/competition),
Ashok Leyland (tactical upcycle trade) and TVS Motor (contrarian call as best risk:reward; significant launches [6 in
2013] and BMW deal). Recommend adding Bajaj Auto and Eicher Motors on dips (structural picks).
Preferred Stocks

Company
(Rs) (US$ Bn) Price (Rs) EV/EBITDA PE EBITDA EPS
Maruti Suzuki 1,417 8.23 1,485* 6.6 14.2 32.1 36.0
Ashok Leyland 23 1.19 30 7.2 8.4 6.5 14.0
TVS Motor 40 0.37 62 3.7 5.8 13.1 14.4
* - street ascribes a P/E multiple of 15x.
Source: IDFC Securities Research Note: Prices as of 25 th January 2013 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 28
Top Picks Auto
Stock offers a good trading upside post 13% fall

Gaining market share from competition as demand weakens
Maruti Suzuki
Significant weakness in JPY provides ample cushion against volume miss/ compettition
At 15x FY14 (consensus multiples) stock would be at Rs1,575
Saw correction from Rs 28 due to concerns of a earning dilutive QIP

QIP called-off due to lack interest. Management has ruled out any fund raising in medium term.
Ashok Leyland
Current levels attractive as recovery not factored in and MHCV closer to cyclical bottom
Recommend buying around Rs 23; purely a up-cycle trade
6 launches to drive volumes /margins; enough headroom to grow volumes/margins

On course to knock-off Rs 4 Bn debt (25% of Mkt Cap) by FY14
TVS Motor
Deal with BMW a big vote of confidence in companys capability.
Attractive valuation at 5.8x/7.7x our FY14E standalone EPS/street estimates

Auto Front Liners : Sell / Neutral

Despite multiple headwinds in the past two years company has protected its margins c.20%
Diversified portfolio, export tilt, agility and cost discipline is a positive in a uncertain environment
Bajaj Auto Greater visibility on forex as FY14 hedged at Rs54+. RE60 not priced in; if successful can re-rate stock
FY14 expected to be much better, led by launches and demand recovery (2HFY14); maintain
outperformer with target price of Rs 2,168. Buy on dips
The best in UVs behind with demand moderation and market share loss; discounts creeping in
No new relevant model launches in UV segment till end FY15 while competition intensifies
Mahindra & Mahindra
Tractor demand recovery delayed, SsangYong profitability pushed back to 2015. 2Ws/CVs losses widen
Losses outside core business restrict upside. SOTP target price of Rs 885; Neutral. Sell on rally.
Negative surprise from JLR likely product onslaught from competition and pricing pressure not factored in
Capex of14-16%/revenues at JLR rules out free cash flow till FY16; debt levels may continue to rise
Tata Motors
India business (20% of SOTP) in structural slippage with market share loss in MHCVs and PVs
Current valuation steep (JLR at 41% premium over BMW EV/sales). Underperformer with TP of Rs 254
Sustained market share loss despite dealer inventory build-up; dealers increasingly jittery
No product launches for the next two-three years in relevant categories make it vulnerable
Hero MotoCorp Threat from HMSIs aggressive India plans higher for Hero MotoCorp than Bajaj Auto
Increasing incentives to arrest benefit of royalty payment phase-out in FY15 (max EPS of Rs130)
See it as a value trap post correction, maintain underperformer with target price of Rs 1,565

Government Divestment : Discount to market price deals are attractive
Top 10 PSUs - Potential Realizable Value

Govt. stakes Min. stake to ~ Realizable
Mkt Cap Current Govt. Buy Price
Company Value be held by Value IDFC Reco.
(US$ Mn) Stake (%) (Rs)
(US$ Mn) Govt. (%) (US$ Mn)
ONGC 49,910 69.23 34,553 51 6,299 NEUTRAL 290 300
Coal India 37,107 90 33,396 51 13,024 SELL 300
NTPC 22,289 75 16,717 51 4,012 NEUTRAL 140
Indian Oil 13,801 78.92 10,892 51 3,041 SELL 260 265
NMDC 10,447 80 8,358 51 2,424 BUY 144
MMTC 5,629 99.33 5,592 51 2,702 Not Rated -
BHEL 8,879 67.72 6,013 51 1,005 SELL 180
PGCIL 9,151 69.42 6,352 51 1,170 Not Rated -
GAIL 7,932 57.34 4,548 51 288 BUY 340
SAIL 5,392 85.82 4,628 51 1,611 SELL 55
Total 1,31,048 35,578
Assumed Conversion Rate: Rs 54.50 per US$ PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 31

Government Divestment : Discount to market price deals are attractive
Company Price Target Our Buy Price

Comments
Name (Rs) Price (Rs) Reco. (Rs)
Favourable revenue mix

Engineers
160 200 BUY Key beneficiary of any pick up in the hydrocarbon capex 150-160
India
Rs 22 Bn cash on books
Steady improvement in natural gas business

Oil India 549 519 NEUTRAL Excess cash scouting for acquisitions 475 480
Proposed subsidy might improve realizations
Capacity addition & increased coal supply

NTPC 147 178 NEUTRAL 140
But difficult to return to historical availability & PLFs
-6% CAGR expected in earnings (FY12-15)

BHEL 199 213 SELL Outlook on order inflows remains weak 180
Rise in working capital intensity
Delay in modernisation & expansion plans

Delay in iron ore availability
SAIL 71 59 SELL 55
Pressure on margins expected on account of increasing
employee costs

Annexure 1:
IDFC Securities: Earnings Growth

EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)* P/B (x) RoCE (%)***
Price T Price Mkt Cap Mkt Cap Reco EPS CAGR (%)
Company Name (Rs) (Rs) (US$ m) (Rs. bn) FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY14E/FY12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E
Alcoholic Beverages 7,734 424 57.0 28.9 42.3 58.8 47.6 #DIV/0! 23.4 20.3 6.0 4.1 11.1 12.3 -
Radico Khaitan 127 172 307 16.9 OP 6.4 8.8 - 15.0 19.7 14.4 - 11.4 9.3 - 2.2 1.9 - 11.6 13.3 -
United Breweries 739 650 3,236 177.5 UP 7.8 9.2 - 27.7 95.0 80.2 - 39.6 31.9 - 13.2 11.4 - 14.4 16.9 -
Under
United Spirits 1,826 4,191 229.8 OP 36.5 44.3 - 53.4 50.0 41.2 - 19.7 17.7 - 4.5 3.0 - 10.4 11.3 -
Review
Automobiles 47,766 2,620 (16.1) 25.4 2.6 12.7 10.2 8.1 6.8 5.5 4.1 2.8 2.4 1.9 20.9 22.8 18.3
Ashok Leyland 22 30 1,065 58.4 OP 1.7 2.8 - 14.0 12.8 8.0 - 9.5 7.0 - 1.3 1.2 - 7.9 10.2 -
Bajaj Auto 1,674 2,168 8,830 484.3 OP 106.9 135.5 150.5 12.4 15.7 12.4 11.1 11.0 8.4 7.1 6.6 5.2 4.2 51.7 52.4 47.2
Eicher Motors 2,663 3,175 1,308 71.7 OP 120.1 156.6 226.8 17.1 22.2 17.0 11.7 11.5 8.5 5.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 17.4 19.8 25.1
Hero MotoCorp 1,454 1,565 5,294 290.4 UP 106.9 105.1 - (6.1) 13.6 13.8 - 7.2 6.5 - 5.5 4.7 - 38.1 38.1 -
M&M 848 862 9,084 498.2 N 53.1 58.3 - 11.0 16.0 14.5 - 11.4 10.1 - 3.6 3.1 - 23.3 22.5 -
Maruti Suzuki 1,311 1,485 6,909 378.9 N 64.5 100.1 - 33.0 20.3 13.1 - 9.0 5.6 - 2.3 2.0 - 10.9 16.2 -
Tata Motors 258 254 14,982 821.7 UP 29.6 37.6 38.1 (6.4) 8.7 6.9 6.8 4.6 3.8 3.5 2.0 1.6 1.4 20.5 21.8 20.4
TVS Motor 34 62 295 16.2 OP 4.3 6.9 - 14.4 7.9 5.0 - 5.2 3.3 - 1.3 1.1 - 13.9 22.0 -
Cement 21,834 1,197 15.4 16.9 16.1 14.4 12.3 12.6 7.6 6.5 6.6 2.1 1.8 2.3 17.3 18.0 8.1
ACC 1,139 1,500 3,900 213.9 OP 68.5 78.6 89.4 18.3 16.6 14.5 12.7 9.0 7.8 6.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 17.1 17.7 18.2
Ambuja Cement 168 165 4,666 255.9 UP 10.1 11.7 13.5 22.4 16.6 14.3 12.5 9.0 7.7 6.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 20.9 21.8 21.7
Grasim Industries 2,726 3,411 4,557 249.9 OP 299.6 347.6 - 10.7 9.1 7.8 - 4.5 4.0 - 1.0 0.8 - 15.3 15.9 -
UltraTech Cement 1,743 1,600 8,711 477.7 UP 100.1 119.3 - 17.7 17.4 14.6 - 10.1 8.5 - 3.1 2.6 - 18.9 19.6 -
Construction** 18,182 997 6.6 18.7 12.5 17.6 14.7 12.0 9.5 8.0 6.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 9.7 10.6 11.4
Gammon India 24 30 59 3.3 UP (26.0) (5.2) 1.5 n/a n/a n/a (7.4) 45.3 7.1 5.5 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.9) 5.8 7.7
HCC 14 19 158 8.7 UP (2.7) (1.8) (0.2) n/a n/a n/a n/a 8.9 6.8 5.6 (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) 4.1 5.8 7.5
IVRCL Infrastructures 20 48 96 5.3 OP (3.3) (1.5) (0.5) n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.8 0.9 1.2 (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) 4.3 6.7 7.3
Jaiprakash Associates 64 101 2,466 135.3 OP 4.9 7.8 11.1 61.2 13.0 8.2 5.8 9.0 7.4 6.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 8.2 9.4 10.6
Larsen & Toubro 1,362 1,680 15,118 829.2 N 79.8 80.2 90.2 5.5 17.1 17.0 15.1 11.4 10.4 9.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 15.9 14.7 14.9
Madhucon Project 24 57 32 1.7 OP 5.4 6.1 - 14.0 (1.9) - (2.8) (3.0) - (0.1) (0.1) - 12.0 11.0 -
(2.1)
NCC 33 56 153 8.4 OP 3.0 3.3 3.7 14.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 2.6 2.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 8.1 8.5
Simplex Infrastructures 109 170 99 5.4 N 13.9 14.2 16.9 (8.4) 7.9 7.7 6.5 5.2 4.8 4.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 9.3 9.3 9.8

Consumer goods 84,003 4,607 20.3 18.3 19.3 32.7 27.6 28.4 23.0 19.2 17.2 12.9 11.0 13.5 44.0 47.8 8.6
Colgate-Palmolive 1,311 1,530 3,251 178.3 OP 39.0 45.0 - 17.0 29.2 - 24.6 20.9 - 36.2 31.4 - 143.1 147.5 -
33.6
Dabur India 141 131 4,453 244.2 N 4.4 5.2 - 18.2 27.2 - 24.1 20.7 - 11.4 9.4 - 30.9 32.1 -
32.1
Godrej Consumer 785 781 4,624 253.6 OP 21.4 26.0 - 22.0 30.1 - 26.0 21.2 - 8.1 6.9 - 20.1 21.1 -
36.7
Hindustan Unilever 470 442 18,508 1,015.1 UP 15.2 17.0 - 19.5 27.7 - 24.8 21.3 - 24.3 21.2 - 98.0 97.4 -
31.0
ITC 300 260 42,264 2,317.9 UP 9.4 11.3 - 19.9 26.4 - 21.6 17.8 - 10.9 9.3 - 42.4 49.1 -
31.9
Jyothy Laboratories 159 250 468 25.7 OP 4.0 7.0 10.0 59.5 22.6 16.0 19.8 13.9 10.8 4.0 3.7 3.2 11.1 16.0 20.0
39.6
Marico Industries 217 243 2,432 133.4 OP 6.5 8.1 - 25.2 26.7 - 22.2 18.4 - 6.9 5.6 - 22.2 21.5 -
33.2
Nestle India 4,553 4,968 8,003 438.9 OP 114.2 131.1 152.8 11.4 34.7 29.8 24.5 21.0 17.9 24.4 19.9 16.7 58.4 55.9 59.5
39.9
Education 107 6 (60.5) 59.4 (20.7) 5.2 7.1 5.2 0.3 0.2 5.3 6.7 -
9.6
Educomp Solution 62 160 107 5.9 N 7.4 11.8 - (20.7) 5.2 - 7.1 5.2 - 0.2 0.2 - 5.3 6.7 -
8.3
Engineering 6,706 368 (5.0) 11.1 2.7 14.2 12.7 12.6 9.3 7.8 7.9 2.3 2.0 2.3 14.6 15.3 13.2
AIAE 314 400 539 29.6 OP 19.7 24.2 28.3 12.5 13.0 11.1 9.9 7.8 6.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 17.3 19.1 19.9
15.9
Bharat Electronics 1,180 1,300 1,721 94.4 N 98.0 108.3 - 0.0 10.9 - 6.9 4.6 - 1.5 1.4 - 5.8 7.5 -
12.0
Carborundum Universal 115 126 393 21.5 UP 5.9 7.9 - (17.6) 14.6 - 11.3 9.1 - 2.0 1.8 - 10.2 12.7 -
19.6
Engineers India 160 248 982 53.8 OP 18.0 16.1 - (7.3) 9.9 - 3.9 4.0 - 2.5 2.2 - 29.1 23.9 -
8.9
Havells India 602 700 1,370 75.1 OP 30.1 38.9 45.9 14.5 15.5 13.1 11.4 9.3 7.6 5.5 4.4 3.5 26.0 28.0 29.6
20.0
Thermax India 573 500 1,244 68.2 UP 27.7 30.4 36.8 (5.3) 18.8 15.6 13.3 12.3 10.0 3.4 2.9 2.5 18.4 16.5 18.1
20.7
Voltas 76 90 457 25.1 UP 6.3 7.7 9.0 98.0 12.0 9.9 8.4 10.4 8.0 6.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 10.9 12.6 13.5
Financial 131,586 7,217 15.9 18.9 18.0 17.4 12.6 10.6 9.0 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 -
Axis Bank 1,244 1,685 9,311 510.7 OP 115.3 132.9 161.4 13.6 9.4 7.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7
10.8
Bank of Baroda 656 675 4,695 257.5 UP 113.0 131.9 156.7 3.0 5.0 4.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0
5.8
Bank of India 306 310 3,052 167.4 UP 50.3 63.6 70.2 15.4 4.8 4.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7
6.1
HDFC 792 837 21,192 1,162.3 N 31.6 37.0 43.3 15.2 21.4 18.3 5.0 4.5 3.9 4.9 4.3 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.6
25.1
HDFC Bank 616 735 26,133 1,433.2 OP 28.7 36.9 46.7 29.1 16.7 13.2 4.2 3.5 2.9 4.1 3.4 2.9 1.8 1.9 2.0
21.5
ICICI Bank 1,009 1,325 21,186 1,162.0 OP 72.8 86.4 105.4 24.1 11.7 9.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9
13.9
Indusind Bank 405 455 3,442 188.8 N 22.2 28.5 36.0 28.8 14.2 11.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.6 1.7 1.7
18.2

Hospitals 2,626 144 (65.1) 300 18.1 152.2 38.1 #DIV/0! 15.4 18.3 1.9 1.8 6.1 4.9 -
Apollo Hospitals 834 950 1,897 104.0 OP 21.7 25.3 - 24.4 38.4 33.0 - 19.5 16.7 - 4.2 3.7 - 11.5 11.7 -
Fortis Healthcare 99 112 729 40.0 N (4.9) 1.4 - (10.0) n/a 68.5 - 11.7 21.4 - 0.7 0.7 - 4.0 1.5 -
Infra Developers 12,557 689 (39.3) 130 18.2 32.7 15.1 10.5 15.6 10.6 8.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 4.4 6.5 7.8
Adani Enterprises 209 364 4,199 230.3 OP 9.2 24.0 31.7 12.4 22.9 8.7 6.6 16.3 9.6 8.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 3.9 6.9 8.5
Adani Port & SEZ 141 164 5,141 282.0 OP 5.9 8.0 11.6 16.4 24.0 17.7 12.2 15.3 12.2 9.7 4.4 3.8 2.9 8.6 10.0 12.0
Ashoka Buildcon 194 304 186 10.2 OP 18.1 24.1 25.0 0.9 10.7 8.0 7.7 10.0 12.3 8.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 3.0 2.4 3.4
Under Research Negative List
Gammon Infrastructure 11 24 151 8.3
Gujarat Pipavav 50 65 390 21.4 OP 1.4 2.2 2.7 26.7 36.6 23.3 18.6 15.3 15.2 12.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 7.7 7.6 8.5
GMR Infrastructure 22 25 1,526 83.7 OP (1.5) (1.3) (0.6) n/a n/a n/a n/a 20.2 13.5 11.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7 4.2 4.9
GVK Power 10 13 274 15.0 UP (1.0) 0.5 1.2 33.4 n/a 20.1 8.2 19.5 10.2 7.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 6.5 6.7
IRB Infra 114 171 690 37.8 OP 15.1 14.6 16.0 (1.0) 7.5 7.8 7.1 6.5 6.7 6.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 10.9 11.1 10.5
IT Services 121,019 6,637 23.8 11.7 13.7 17.6 17.3 15.5 13.6 12.2 10.4 8.9 4.5 3.7 3.1 31.0 28.8 26.7
eClerx Services 628 700 345 18.9 N 58.5 78.3 92.8 21.6 10.7 8.0 6.8 6.3 4.9 3.6 3.5 2.7 2.1 51.8 42.3 38.6
HCL Technologies 743 650 9,130 500.8 UP 51.6 53.9 65.5 23.0 14.4 13.8 11.3 8.6 7.7 6.0 3.8 3.1 2.5 32.2 28.5 28.5
Hexaware Technologies 91 90 479 26.3 N 10.9 10.6 13.9 8.9 8.3 8.5 5.5 5.3 4.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 33.8 30.5 36.5
6.5
Under
Infinite Computer 101 82 4.5 UP 32.4 35.7 47.2 12.9 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 29.5 28.8 31.9
Review
Infosys Technologies 2,880 3,200 30,001 1,645.4 OP 163.5 184.1 213.2 12.5 17.6 15.6 13.5 11.9 10.2 8.6 4.2 3.5 2.9 29.4 27.2 24.8
KPIT Cummins
94 150 275 15.1 OP 10.6 14.0 15.8 36.6 8.8 6.7 5.9 4.8 4.0 3.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 25.8 25.3 24.1
Infosystems
Mahindra Satyam 115 150 2,458 134.8 OP 11.1 12.6 14.3 11.6 9.1 6.2 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.0 1.6 28.9 26.8 23.7
10.3 8.0
Mindtree 864 700 626 34.4 UP 80.9 76.5 98.1 19.5 11.3 6.4 6.0 4.7 2.8 2.3 1.9 36.3 28.2 27.6
10.7 8.8
MphasiS 389 380 1,495 82.0 N 37.6 37.4 39.2 (2.1) 10.4 5.0 6.7 5.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 20.3 18.3 19.2
10.3 9.9
Persistent Systems 541 620 394 21.6 OP 48.6 57.1 66.3 26.9 9.5 5.4 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 27.6 23.9 24.3
11.1 8.1
Tata Consultancy 1,508 1,430 53,812 2,951.3 N 72.5 82.7 92.0 23.3 18.2 15.5 13.2 11.5 7.3 5.6 4.5 47.6 41.3 35.7
20.8 16.4
Tech Mahindra 977 1,300 2,197 120.5 OP 86.8 100.8 103.4 20.5 9.7 9.5 8.3 9.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 19.9 20.5 14.9
11.3 9.4
Wipro 444 440 19,725 1,081.8 OP 27.2 30.0 33.9 14.9 14.8 11.7 9.8 8.3 3.2 2.8 2.4 19.4 19.5 19.2
16.3 13.1
Logistics 2,721 149 2.7 3.7 3.2 13.7 13.2 12.0 9.1 8.3 7.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 14.0 13.4 13.8

Hospitals 2,626 144 (65.1) 300 18.1 152.2 38.1 #DIV/0! 15.4 18.3 1.9 1.8 6.1 4.9 -
Apollo Hospitals 834 950 1,897 104.0 OP 21.7 25.3 - 24.4 38.4 33.0 - 19.5 16.7 - 4.2 3.7 - 11.5 11.7 -
Fortis Healthcare 99 112 729 40.0 N (4.9) 1.4 - (10.0) n/a 68.5 - 11.7 21.4 - 0.7 0.7 - 4.0 1.5 -
Infra Developers 12,557 689 (39.3) 130 18.2 32.7 15.1 10.5 15.6 10.6 8.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 4.4 6.5 7.8
Adani Enterprises 209 364 4,199 230.3 OP 9.2 24.0 31.7 12.4 22.9 8.7 6.6 16.3 9.6 8.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 3.9 6.9 8.5
Adani Port & SEZ 141 164 5,141 282.0 OP 5.9 8.0 11.6 16.4 24.0 17.7 12.2 15.3 12.2 9.7 4.4 3.8 2.9 8.6 10.0 12.0
Ashoka Buildcon 194 304 186 10.2 OP 18.1 24.1 25.0 0.9 10.7 8.0 7.7 10.0 12.3 8.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 3.0 2.4 3.4
Under Research Negative List
Gammon Infrastructure 11 24 151 8.3
Gujarat Pipavav 50 65 390 21.4 OP 1.4 2.2 2.7 26.7 36.6 23.3 18.6 15.3 15.2 12.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 7.7 7.6 8.5
GMR Infrastructure 22 25 1,526 83.7 OP (1.5) (1.3) (0.6) n/a n/a n/a n/a 20.2 13.5 11.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7 4.2 4.9
GVK Power 10 13 274 15.0 UP (1.0) 0.5 1.2 33.4 n/a 20.1 8.2 19.5 10.2 7.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 6.5 6.7
IRB Infra 114 171 690 37.8 OP 15.1 14.6 16.0 (1.0) 7.5 7.8 7.1 6.5 6.7 6.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 10.9 11.1 10.5
IT Services 121,019 6,637 23.8 11.7 13.7 17.6 17.3 15.5 13.6 12.2 10.4 8.9 4.5 3.7 3.1 31.0 28.8 26.7
eClerx Services 628 700 345 18.9 N 58.5 78.3 92.8 21.6 10.7 8.0 6.8 6.3 4.9 3.6 3.5 2.7 2.1 51.8 42.3 38.6
HCL Technologies 743 650 9,130 500.8 UP 51.6 53.9 65.5 23.0 14.4 13.8 11.3 8.6 7.7 6.0 3.8 3.1 2.5 32.2 28.5 28.5
Hexaware Technologies 91 90 479 26.3 N 10.9 10.6 13.9 8.9 8.3 8.5 5.5 5.3 4.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 33.8 30.5 36.5
6.5
Under
Infinite Computer 101 82 4.5 UP 32.4 35.7 47.2 12.9 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 29.5 28.8 31.9
Review
Infosys Technologies 2,880 3,200 30,001 1,645.4 OP 163.5 184.1 213.2 12.5 17.6 15.6 13.5 11.9 10.2 8.6 4.2 3.5 2.9 29.4 27.2 24.8
KPIT Cummins
94 150 275 15.1 OP 10.6 14.0 15.8 36.6 8.8 6.7 5.9 4.8 4.0 3.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 25.8 25.3 24.1
Infosystems
Mahindra Satyam 115 150 2,458 134.8 OP 11.1 12.6 14.3 11.6 10.3 9.1 8.0 6.2 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.0 1.6 28.9 26.8 23.7
Mindtree 864 700 626 34.4 UP 80.9 76.5 98.1 19.5 10.7 11.3 8.8 6.4 6.0 4.7 2.8 2.3 1.9 36.3 28.2 27.6
MphasiS 389 380 1,495 82.0 N 37.6 37.4 39.2 (2.1) 10.3 10.4 9.9 5.0 6.7 5.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 20.3 18.3 19.2
Persistent Systems 541 620 394 21.6 OP 48.6 57.1 66.3 26.9 11.1 9.5 8.1 5.4 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 27.6 23.9 24.3
Tata Consultancy 1,508 1,430 53,812 2,951.3 N 72.5 82.7 92.0 23.3 20.8 18.2 16.4 15.5 13.2 11.5 7.3 5.6 4.5 47.6 41.3 35.7
Tech Mahindra 977 1,300 2,197 120.5 OP 86.8 100.8 103.4 20.5 11.3 9.7 9.4 9.5 8.3 9.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 19.9 20.5 14.9
Wipro 444 440 19,725 1,081.8 OP 27.2 30.0 33.9 14.9 16.3 14.8 13.1 11.7 9.8 8.3 3.2 2.8 2.4 19.4 19.5 19.2

Logistics 2,721 149 2.7 3.7 3.2 13.2 9.1 8.3 7.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 14.0 13.4 13.8
13.7 12.0
Container Corporation 1,048 1,000 2,484 136.2 N 74.6 77.0 84.2 3.8 13.6 9.9 9.1 8.0 2.2 1.9 1.8 14.2 13.2 13.3
14.1 12.5
Gateway Distripark 121 157 237 13.0 OP 11.3 12.1 14.3 (0.6) 10.0 8.4 5.6 4.9 4.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 13.4 14.5 16.6
10.7
Media 7,628 418 58.0 27.7 42.0 34.4 27.0 15.7 11.8 4.2 3.7 12.1 15.1 -
Dish TV India 69 74 1,335 73.2 N (0.7) (0.2) - n/a n/a n/a - 13.7 10.1 - (43.6) (39.5) - (5.5) 5.4 -
DEN Network 202 250 480 26.3 OP 4.6 5.8 - 57.3 35.1 - 15.7 11.9 - 2.9 2.6 - 9.4 11.0 -
44.0
Entertainment Network 229 240 199 10.9 N 12.9 14.8 - 12.3 17.8 15.4 - 9.1 7.3 - 2.2 1.9 - 14.7 15.0 -
Hathway Cables and
266 299 692 38.0 OP 2.3 4.0 - n/a 66.0 - 18.3 13.7 - 3.7 3.5 - 6.2 9.1 -
Datacom 116.6
HT Media 98 115 419 23.0 N 7.4 9.7 - 17.3 10.1 - 8.9 6.5 - 1.4 1.2 - 10.0 13.3 -
13.2
TV18 Broadcast 26 25 113 6.2 UP (2.2) (1.6) - n/a n/a n/a - (102.4) 151.0 - 1.3 1.3 - (3.1) (1.9) -
Jagran Prakashan 94 110 543 29.8 N 8.2 6.8 - 9.5 13.8 - 9.6 8.3 - 3.5 3.2 - 19.6 20.9 -
11.4
PVR 290 320 143 7.9 OP 8.4 17.7 - 28.8 34.4 16.4 - 12.3 7.7 - 1.8 1.6 - 8.9 11.7 -
Zee Entertainment 208 277 3,704 203.1 OP 7.9 9.6 - 25.1 21.6 - 19.5 15.2 - 5.1 4.3 - 25.9 27.8 -
26.3
Metals 87,174 4,781 5.5 6.8 6.2 9.2 8.6 8.6 6.4 5.6 5.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 10.2 10.9 10.1
Coal India 311 338 35,786 1,962.7 UP 26.2 26.9 29.9 7.3 11.5 7.6 6.6 5.2 3.9 3.2 2.7 18.9 17.0 16.5
11.9 10.4
Hindalco Industries 89 110 3,089 169.4 N 15.0 15.6 - (6.1) 5.7 - 8.1 8.0 - 0.5 0.4 - 6.0 6.0 -
5.9
Hindustan Zinc 117 152 8,998 493.5 OP 14.6 15.6 - 8.3 7.5 - 4.7 3.5 - 1.6 1.3 - 17.2 16.8 -
8.0
Jindal Steel & Power 330 434 5,617 308.0 OP 39.1 41.8 52.6 (1.5) 7.9 7.2 6.1 4.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 13.9 13.5 14.2
8.4 6.3
JSW Steel 681 606 2,823 154.8 UP 93.7 79.3 93.4 (7.6) 8.6 6.2 5.2 5.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 9.0 10.2 10.9
7.3 7.3
NMDC 131 187 9,437 517.6 OP 16.8 17.7 20.2 (1.6) 7.4 4.0 3.6 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 28.5 25.8 26.1
7.8 6.5
SAIL 62 59 4,632 254.0 UP 7.7 8.7 9.6 26.3 7.1 8.4 7.0 5.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 6.6 7.8 8.9
8.0 6.4
Sesa Goa 147 153 2,329 127.8 UP 28.7 28.2 - (11.1) 5.2 - 1.5 (0.1) - 0.7 0.7 - 4.3 6.1 -
5.1
Sterlite Industries 88 133 5,523 302.9 OP 15.3 15.6 - (3.3) 5.6 - 4.0 3.8 - 0.5 0.4 - 9.3 9.3 -
5.7
Tata Steel 304 301 5,324 292.0 UP 6.5 24.7 29.3 27.9 12.3 6.9 6.0 5.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 5.9 7.8 8.1
46.9 10.4

Oil & Gas 141,684 7,771 1.2 0.7 0.9 10.0 5.8 5.7 6.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 11.8 11.2 4.6
10.1 10.6
BPCL 370 376 4,872 267.2 N 15.4 20.4 - 37.4 24.0 18.1 - 13.8 12.4 - 1.5 1.4 - 3.0 4.1 -
Cairn India 289 382 10,019 549.5 OP 57.7 46.0 - 4.2 6.3 - 3.1 3.3 - 1.0 0.9 - 22.3 16.0 -
5.0
Essar Oil 79 63 1,982 108.7 UP 4.4 7.5 - 206.5 18.0 10.4 - 7.2 6.1 - 2.6 2.1 - 13.1 12.9 -
GAIL (India) 312 375 7,218 395.9 OP 34.5 31.9 - (4.6) 9.0 9.8 - 6.0 6.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 17.9 16.3 -
Gujarat Gas Company 255 316 596 32.7 N 22.3 21.8 23.1 1.3 11.4 11.7 11.0 8.0 7.1 6.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 27.8 26.7 25.6
Gujarat State Petronet 68 72 699 38.3 N 9.2 9.4 - 0.4 7.3 - 4.6 4.4 - 1.3 1.1 - 20.5 18.5 -
7.4
HPCL 280 273 1,726 94.6 UP 27.7 39.3 - 176.0 7.1 - 11.2 11.2 - 0.7 0.6 - 3.7 3.6 -
10.1
IOC 283 231 12,522 686.7 UP 24.0 30.2 - (21.6) 9.4 - 8.8 7.8 - 1.0 1.0 - 5.2 5.9 -
11.8
Indraprastha Gas 270 337 690 37.8 OP 22.7 23.0 - 2.3 11.8 - 6.1 5.8 - 2.6 2.3 - 27.5 23.1 -
11.9
Oil India 519 492 5,691 312.1 N 67.1 69.0 - 9.7 7.5 - 3.6 3.1 - 1.5 1.2 - 22.0 19.8 -
7.7
ONGC 308 296 47,992 2,632.1 N 30.8 30.0 - 1.0 10.3 - 3.8 3.8 - 1.7 1.6 - 19.6 18.0 -
10.0
Petronet LNG 140 168 1,914 105.0 OP 15.6 14.1 13.1 0.1 9.9 6.0 6.3 5.9 2.3 1.9 1.6 23.9 17.8 15.1
9.0 10.7
Reliance Industries 768 915 45,763 2,509.9 N 62.3 65.7 72.4 4.4 11.7 8.3 7.8 6.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 8.5 8.4 9.4
12.3 10.6
Pharmaceuticals 47,266 2,592 23.9 15.2 17.9 19.5 18.9 13.9 12.3 10.2 4.7 3.9 3.3 22.0 22.1 23.2
21.8 16.0
Biocon 274 312 999 54.8 OP 17.5 20.7 24.1 10.6 13.2 10.3 8.6 7.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 11.7 13.6 15.0
15.6 11.4
Cipla 383 465 5,620 308.2 OP 19.6 21.0 24.2 21.6 18.2 13.1 11.8 10.0 3.5 3.0 2.6 21.8 20.3 20.5
19.6 15.8
Dishman Pharma 67 122 99 5.4 OP 11.9 13.6 16.8 39.8 4.9 5.1 4.0 3.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 9.4 10.3 11.5
5.6 4.0
Dr Reddy's Lab 1,890 2,096 5,830 319.7 OP 96.3 111.9 125.6 11.2 16.9 13.1 10.7 9.1 4.6 3.7 3.1 19.5 20.3 19.8
19.6 15.0
Glaxosmithkline Pharma 2,201 2,139 3,399 186.4 UP 79.9 89.2 101.3 9.4 24.7 21.0 18.3 15.5 9.3 8.4 7.5 31.4 33.7 35.9
27.5 21.7
Glenmark Pharma 467 560 2,304 126.4 OP 23.5 28.3 31.1 13.8 16.5 13.9 11.8 10.3 4.2 3.4 2.9 19.8 20.3 20.4
19.8 15.0
IPCA Laboratories 516 563 1,183 64.9 OP 26.5 35.2 41.4 26.9 14.6 12.5 10.5 8.7 4.2 3.4 2.7 24.0 24.2 24.5
19.5 12.5
Lupin 629 620 5,119 280.7 N 28.4 31.0 34.8 26.2 20.3 13.2 12.0 10.5 5.4 4.4 3.6 28.7 26.2 24.8
22.1 18.1
Ranbaxy Lab 449 472 3,447 189.1 OP 26.3 33.3 60.2 26.3 13.5 9.9 10.3 5.3 5.1 3.8 2.5 15.8 18.6 37.4
17.1 7.5
Sanofi India 2,521 2,199 1,057 58.0 N 76.8 87.9 100.7 2.9 28.7 17.6 15.2 12.9 4.8 4.4 4.0 16.7 17.9 19.3
32.8 25.0
Strides Arcolab 859 1,159 904 49.6 OP 31.9 53.2 - 33.5 16.1 - 12.2 9.4 - 2.4 2.1 - 10.2 13.6 -
26.9
Sun Pharma 860 850 16,236 890.5 OP 33.4 37.2 40.0 22.0 23.1 16.8 15.2 14.0 5.7 4.6 3.9 30.2 26.9 23.8
25.8 21.5
Torrent Pharma 692 793 1,068 58.6 OP 47.5 56.6 63.7 20.6 12.2 9.1 7.7 6.5 3.8 3.1 2.5 28.8 27.6 26.6
14.6 10.9
Power Equipment 11,491 630 (9.3) (7.6) (8.5) 9.4 5.6 5.5 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 20.9 16.8 14.5
8.7 8.8
ABB 496 450 1,917 105.1 UP 6.5 13.0 15.0 22.1 76.5 38.2 33.1 43.1 23.9 20.5 4.0 3.7 3.4 5.4 10.9 11.9
BHEL 178 213 7,950 436.0 UP 27.2 22.5 23.7 (11.3) 7.9 4.2 4.5 3.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 28.0 19.5 18.0
6.6 7.5
Crompton Greaves 91 115 1,065 58.4 N 1.8 7.2 - 11.2 12.6 - 13.0 6.3 - 1.6 1.5 - 5.1 11.3 -
51.9
EMCO 20 27 24 1.3 N 0.9 1.0 - (7.5) 19.6 - 5.7 5.6 - 0.2 0.2 - 5.9 6.4 -
20.9
Jyoti Structures 32 53 47 2.6 OP 8.5 9.7 - (3.4) 3.3 - 3.6 3.4 - 0.4 0.3 - 16.3 16.9 -
3.7
Kalpataru Power 78 120 218 12.0 OP 10.0 12.1 - 1.0 6.4 - 5.7 5.3 - 0.6 0.5 - 10.9 11.4 -
7.8
KEC International 57 57 268 14.7 UP 5.7 7.7 - 6.7 7.5 - 6.2 4.8 - 1.2 1.1 - 14.0 14.8 -
10.1
Power Utilities 32,541 1,785 (16.4) 37.8 7.3 17.7 12.8 11.2 10.8 8.3 7.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 6.1 7.9 6.0
Adani Power 47 55 1,860 102.0 N (8.7) 1.0 2.2 n/a n/a 46.9 51.7 10.0 7.2 2.5 2.3 2.1 (0.5) 5.6 8.6
21.1
CESC 270 333 615 33.8 N 45.2 48.4 - 3.4 6.0 5.6 - 3.2 2.9 - 0.6 0.6 - 10.4 9.9 -
Jaiprakash Power 26 47 1,225 67.2 OP 1.6 2.9 5.2 38.7 8.7 11.6 8.9 6.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 6.9 8.8 11.7
16.0 5.0
KSK Energy 47 123 322 17.7 OP 4.0 10.2 14.5 212.4 11.8 4.6 3.3 16.2 11.1 8.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 4.1 6.2 8.9
Lanco Infratech 11 12 463 25.4 N (5.0) (3.4) - n/a n/a n/a - 14.0 11.7 - 0.5 0.6 - 3.2 4.5 -
NTPC 145 182 21,769 1,193.9 N 11.6 12.9 - 14.9 12.5 11.2 - 9.8 8.2 - 1.5 1.4 - 8.9 10.1 -
Nava Bharat Ventures 170 310 238 13.0 OP 23.8 30.5 38.7 23.0 7.2 5.6 4.4 9.0 9.6 6.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 6.3 7.3 8.0
PTC 62 66 330 18.1 N 4.2 5.7 7.9 18.3 10.8 3.6 2.1 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 6.8 9.2 12.5
14.8 7.8
Reliance Infrastructure 329 860 1,605 88.0 OP 46.1 36.8 - (28.3) 7.1 8.9 - (0.8) (1.1) - 0.4 0.4 - 4.5 3.3 -
Tata Power 95 103 4,112 225.5 N 3.8 2.8 4.5 (21.7) 25.2 33.4 21.3 9.3 7.9 7.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 7.6 9.2 9.7
Real Estate 11,589 636 (18.1) 35.6 5.4 23.7 17.5 14.7 10.6 4.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 6.7 9.3 3.1
7.7
Ansal Properties &
23 50 66 3.6 OP 3.0 4.7 - 286.9 7.6 5.0 - 10.4 6.7 - 0.2 0.2 - 5.0 7.7 -
Infrastructure
DLF 235 303 7,264 398.4 OP 4.8 7.0 - (1.4) 48.7 33.5 - 21.6 15.5 - 1.4 1.3 - 3.8 5.9 -
Godrej Properties 538 750 686 37.6 OP 17.8 26.2 - 44.6 20.5 - 19.0 11.2 - 2.7 2.4 - 8.7 14.5 -
30.2
Jaypee Infratech 38 80 960 52.6 OP 4.7 4.9 - (27.6) 7.8 - 8.4 6.5 - 0.8 0.8 - 9.9 11.6 -
8.1
Oberoi Realty 251 368 1,503 82.4 OP 15.2 27.7 32.5 40.0 9.1 10.8 5.4 4.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 14.3 24.4 24.2
16.6 7.7
Sobha Developers 349 502 624 34.2 OP 22.2 30.8 - 21.0 11.3 - 8.7 6.9 - 1.5 1.4 - 12.7 15.2 -
15.7
Sunteck Realty 424 640 487 26.7 OP 51.9 47.9 - 886.7 8.8 - 5.6 6.1 - 2.5 2.0 - 41.8 29.0 -
8.2

Retail 5,232 287 23.9 23.5 23.7 25.9 13.2 16.6 4.3 7.9 16.6 15.9 -
27.0
Pantaloon Retail 152 308 593 32.5 OP 12.5 - 12.1 - 6.1 - 0.9 - 11.4 - -
Shoppers' Stop 392 372 585 32.1 UP 0.3 7.3 - 77.6 1,160.6 53.5 - 37.4 18.6 - 6.0 5.4 - 3.3 11.9 -
Titan Industries 249 300 4,034 221.2 OP 8.3 10.4 - 23.8 29.9 24.0 - 21.3 16.2 - 11.4 8.4 - 52.3 52.5 -
Telecoms 33,476 1,836 (32.5) 48.6 39.5 0.2 35.5 23.9 17.1 7.2 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 6.3 7.2 8.4
Bharti Airtel 274 390 18,945 1,039.0 OP 6.6 10.9 16.2 (7.8) 41.7 25.0 16.9 7.0 5.8 4.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 6.8 7.6 9.0
Bharti Infratel 180 175 5,719 313.7 UP 5.5 6.3 7.0 20.7 32.5 28.7 25.5 8.0 7.2 6.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 7.2 7.9 8.5
Idea Cellular 106 135 6,378 349.8 OP 3.1 4.2 5.9 26.5 34.1 25.0 18.1 7.9 6.2 5.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 8.0 8.8 10.6
OnMobile Global 36 40 76 4.2 N 4.3 4.9 5.2 (14.9) 8.4 7.2 6.8 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 5.6 6.7 7.6
Reliance Communication 63 100 2,358 129.3 OP 3.1 4.8 6.7 (3.9) 20.3 13.0 9.4 7.1 6.0 4.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.4 5.2 5.9
Market
Commodities 250,436 13,735 5.2 4.0 13.1 8.4 10.0 9.7 9.5 6.1 5.7 5.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 11.4 11.4 7.3
Non-commodities 618,319 33,912 8.2 20.3 46.2 32.7 16.1 13.5 11.3 8.5 6.8 5.2 2.4 1.9 15.9
IDFC Securities 868,755 47,647 5.1 14.0 37.9 25.3 14.4 12.7 10.9 8.8 7.7 6.7 2.1 1.9 1.7 11.9 12.5 10.1
Source: IDFC Securities, Bloomberg

OP; Outperformer, UP; Underperformer, N; Neutral, UR; Under Review
note:- * price to adj. Book value for Financial companies; *** roa for Financial companies
For sector aggregate numbers EPS growth rates have been used in place of EPS numbers.
** Adjusted for value of BOT/RE project,#Proforma estimates post restructuring,@ numbers is under review, ## FY12 numbers is under review,@@ FY12&FY13 numbers is under review
SEBI Registration Nos.: INB23 12914 37, INF23 12914 37, INB01 12914 33, INF01 12914 33

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DOCUMENT FOR DISCUSSION

Bouncing at the Bottom;

Tapasije Mishra RBI

22nd April, 2013

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

Significant positive momentum created by Ministry of Finance; strong ETF liquidity

Both inflation and growth moderating; no pickup in private capex in 2013

Conflict between lag and lead indicators :

Toll roads witnessing traffic declines in past 6 months

The Indian consumer to feel a big squeeze

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 2

Price MktCap EPS (Rs) PE (x)

Prices as on April 5th, 2013

Decline in CV sales from 99K to 69K per month in last 10 months

*Annualized data based on 10M FY13 actuals

Length (Kms) 239 206 203 90 65

Surat to Dahisar Mumbai to Pune Jaipur to Kishangarh Bharuch to Surat

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 5

Mumbai Delhi Hyderabad Chennai Bangalore Kolkata Others

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*

Source: AAI PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6

Energy supply and peak deficit (%)

Source: CEA PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 7

Cargo handled at Major Ports

Iron ore 1,767 4,079 -57% 25,442 56,226 -55%

Fertilisers - Finished 126 500 -75% 7,135 11,825 -40%

Fertilisers - Raw 576 675 -15% 7,055 7,438 -5%

Coal - Thermal 5,460 4,584 19% 53,063 45,762 16%

Coal - Coking 1,850 1,998 -7% 25,973 25,976 0%

Containers - Tonnage 9,269 8,914 4% 1,09,172 1,09,511 0%

Containers - TEUs' 000s 604 564 7% 7,035 7,094 -1%

Other 11,105 8,151 36% 1,01,898 90,775 12%

Total 44,240 43,731 1.2% 4,97,970 5,10,829 -3%

Container volumes at Major Ports + Mundra + Pipavav

Mundra 1,520 1,228 23.8 1,262 1,099 14.9

Pipavav 639 497 28.5 405 474 (14.5)

Total of above 9,927 9,262 7.2 7,430 7,415 0.2

Source: IPA PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 8

Rs Cr. FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 (11m)

IPO/ FPO 52,219 2,034 46,941 46,182 10,464 6,019

Rights 32,519 12,622 8,321 9,594 2,375 8,225

QIP 25,770 189 43,968 24,550 1,713 10,658

110,508 14,845 99,231 80,326 14,552 24,902

No. of Issues FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 (11m)

158 46 140 128 61 34

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 9

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

Why are we bullish on Indian Telecom sector?

What is yet to be addressed?

Bharti Airtel OP 274 18.94 390 5.8 25.0 9.6 8.1

TTM Market Share (%)

Airtel Vodafone Rcom Idea BSNL/MTNL

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 12

We are incrementally positive on the Indian IT Services sector

We remain underweight on the capital goods sector

Price Mkt Cap Target FY14E (x) FY12-14E CAGR (%)

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 14

Top Sells: ITC, HUL

Indian Alcohol Beverages sector to be rerated

Diageo deal to steer United Spirits towards premiumisation and deleveraging

Alcohol vs Tobacco MCap: India to revert to global norms?

1,400 500 1000 875

600 12x 200 8.8