Tora of Coastal Resear a> [o 21186 “Cast Cesk, Frida aie Synoptic Systems Generators of Extreme Wind in Southern Brazil Atmospheric Conditions and Consequences in the Coastal Zone Arthur A. Machado", and Lauro J. Calla? ‘Gestogeal Ocanoraty Labrtry, las of Ostnraphy Rio Grande, Baz svn ererore ABSTRACT. Machado, A.A. end Callas, LJ, 2016, Synoptic systems generators of exeme wind in southem Brea ‘smosphere conditions and consequences i he coastal zone, fn: Vils-Concejo, As Bruce, Ex Keaedy, DM end MoCatll. Rd. (ed), Proceedings ofthe 14th International Coatal Smposiam (Sydney, Aus): Jounal of Coastal Research, Special nse, No.5, p. 1182-1186 Coconut Creek (aria), ISSN 0749-0208 “The coast of Rip Grande do Sal (RS), southern Bra sues a seasonal variation duc tothe dynamics asad wit the fequeny and intent of rorms Tete Hmm are mol astciated with high intent extatopisl ‘Selone ha gnerte wind waves which cam change Dich pale fom its maximim ncretion ste complete ‘roion ding a period that cen vary fom few hous to afew days, Using the Generalized Past Distton, we ‘observe tht the O01 prbabity deus vale of al the wind speed values studied was 17 ms Analyzing the storms ‘hat generate exons Winds (> 17 ms") ax inctease ia the numberof exten evens to the coat of RS was bred over the past 6 yer ([948-2013). The ipetease inthe egueney ofexteme event of Wind, will molly tnd ince loons, storm tug, end rsion along the cass twas sbarved Ih the main weater stems seerating stg winds tothe sore ofthe RS are extratropical eylones, which are many formed between parallels BOS to 408, wih two prefered trajectories, east and soutbeast, generating Both eosioy and stom surges. The aorty of extropialejlonespresextend propagation velocities Between 20-40 km I (61.97%). The months With he highest umber of extreme events were pe (2), followed by October (16), The conseguences of storms in BS coast were erosion oF 45 mm stn Suge of LBB, Wind sped of 2521 as" and sgufcat wave eight oF em, ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS:Fraopical cyclone extreme cen, orm surge. INTRODUCTION Atmospheric fronts and. frontal systems are cena components of weather (and hence, climate) over much of the ‘world Those ffequent phenomena (every few days over many cxtaropcal region) are astociated with precipitation, dramatic changes in temperature and changes in wind (direction and speed), among ater Tators (Simmonds et a, 2012) Extatopical synoptic systems compose the daily weather pattems in the mid and high latitudes (Lim and Simmonds 2007). The extatropical cyclones can cause severe coastal ‘damage, such as beach erosion and storm surge (Macha eta, 2016). Furthermore, intense cyclones and associated episodes of Strong winds, high waves, and heavy precipttion are important in tansmiting the effects of low-frequency climate variability to ‘he environment and society (Grabara and Diaz 2001), In Rio Grande do Sul (RS), southern Brazil storms ate frequently associated with high intensity exteatopicl eyelones, ‘which generate wind waves that can alla beach profile fom fits maximum acretion state to completely coded sate over a few hours toa fev days (Calla et a, 1998, Machado al, 2010), Machado el (2010) studied exzeme wave events at RS ‘Shore and showed that both extatopial cyclones and antcyclones genrate extreme waves inthe South Alas reton 13 lay, 2015. “Coneiponting sar ocemmgmat com Coat Haueaton and Resse Foubdatin ne. 2016 ‘The southeast coast of Soh America ie atfected by amorpheric systems at synoptic and sub-synopic sales, whieh fe influenced by factors asocited with eweultons at local scales. Among the phcnomena atthe synoptic scale a frontal systems Sarave ef a, 2003, ‘Gan tnd. Rao (1991) sted the surface eyclogenese frequeney over South America during # 10 year period and ‘observed larger number of exteatopical eyelones in he winter (G05 per year, followed by autumn (30.2 per year), spring (26.8 per yea) and summer (20.7 per yea) In addition fo seasonal Yaratons, Gan end. Rao (991) observed. an interaonoal ‘aration inthe fequeney of eyelogeness over South Amerie, ‘withthe incidence of higher cylogenesis during El Nio yeas “Therefore, the preseat work aims to describe the distbation ‘of wind speeds over 66 years (1948-2013) and the probability of ‘occurrence of exreme wind speeds along the RS coast (southern TBavil). Furthermore, the synopsic propagating systoms that generale these strong winds and thie consequences in the Sosstal zone at explored. Background “The Holocene barrier system of RS occupies the entire 620 1k length of cont Discontinutes inthe rier occur only at ‘vo sits: in the south, at Casino (Figure 1), wher the inlet of the Patos Lagoon is located, and in the noi, at the inlet of ‘Tramandaé Lagoon. Both ne’ are permanently open because of continuous and lange disearge of fresh water through thei fenances. The envie RS coastline is gently undulating andtreme wind i southern Bra consists of two large subdued seaward projections and wo landwaré emibaymens. This is te longest Baier system of South America and certainly ane ofthe longest in he Word. The bmir display a NE-SW trend and is ubject to dominant swell ‘waves generated in souther lites end wind generated waves prouced by sttong spring-smmer sea breezes from the forteast. The cost is microtidal with semidiumal ties that have a mean range of only 0.5 m. Coasequenly, sediment ‘cansport and deposition along the open coast is primarily dominated by wave ation (Dillenburg and Hesp, 2008) gat 1. The study ae, te rd point poston of the NCEPINCAR anid ud int work (mae) ‘Observations of syoptie weather conditions and sea level clevation done by Parise fal. (2009) showed thatthe highest fe level clevaton events resulted from the action of SW winds ‘which blow parallel the main NE-SW coastline orientation in ‘he sepion, result that ean be explained by the pling up of water at the coast duct the Conolis effet (us. Ekman anspor. METHODS ‘The quiliy of hindeasts depends on the aceusey of the amospheric wind and pressure fics as provided by operational analyses or (fegionalized) “reanalysis” of atmospheric ‘ondions Prime examples of reanalysis datatets are those of ‘he National Center for Atmosphere Research and. National Centers for Favironmsnial” Prediction (NCAR/NCEP) (tupswwwes.noaagovpsddata gridded data nep soa him) and ERA (bip/www em inv teseareher) (Storch and Woth, 2008), "The reanalysis dataset used in the present work was created by the cooperative effrs of the NCEP and NCAR (Kalnay et a, 1996) to produce relatively high-resolution global analyses Of etmosphere fields over a longtime period. Several studies have been conducted using NCEPINCAR data (Simmonds and Keay, 200; Lim and Simmonds, 2007; Parise et al, 2008; ‘Mactado eal, 2010) Joural of Coastal Research, S 1185 “The reanalysis dataset (R-1 of NCEPINCAR) was used for characterizing. the atmospheric conditions. and Tor selecting ‘xteme wind speed events. Meridional and zonal components ofthe wind and atmospheric pressure atthe 995 mbar level were ‘sed. A spate cotoltion of 25° x 25° anda temporal resolution of 6 hours (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) for data restated betwosn SOPS - 15°S and 90°W = 20°W were adopted. ‘To beter characterize the path of the systems that gencated cxireme events, a threshold vorticity less than or equal to (10) 510°. was adopted (Machado et a, 2010), “To select the extemes of wind speed, the database ofthe Rel Project Reanalyis NCEPINCAR cited above was used. We aso sed the zonal and meridional components of the wind at 32°50’, 52°S0W, which isthe gid point ofthe reanalysis data loses to Rio Grande (Figure 1) To increase coatidence of the reanalysis data, we performed cotelation with wind dats Tom the Pilot Station (Year 2009) jocsted near the Pato Tegoon ‘mouth (22°8S, 52°), Wind intensity and direction data were collected at meteorological station by an automatic weather Station installed atthe top of the tower, The data ae collected hourly and are based on sample averages of Sminute dala acquisitions per hour. However, the data have many gaps tht preclude the generation of a continuous sees. ‘Analyses of time series have been widely used. for determining standards in environmental sarabls,ivestgaing Periodic penomena und studying global-scale events (Sprott, 2008). To analyze the speed tresbld of exteme wind was used the Generalized Pareto Distibution (GPD) (Babson and Paluikf, 2000). The equation used for calelating the (GPD) rays Hara’) where K = shape parameter, « isthe data ofthe wind spood. ‘To analyze the wind inteasiy during the 66 yeurs of study, analysis of viance (ANOVA) was use, ANOVA wis sed for Verlving the difeences between numbers of events a year imervalsdusing the study peiod (1948-2013), Data normality was tested by the Kolmogorov-Smimov test, and the hhomogencity was detomined by the Levene test. Because cexteme wind speed dat ae not norma, we uted the Kris Wallis ANOVA, whichis the analysis of variance mathod for sonpurametic data. "To determine extratropical cyclone propagation velocities, the stances traveled in each time interval (6b) divided by the time ‘were caleulsed. To esleulate the propagation direction, the vimuth botweon the staring. and ending point of each fxtatopical cyclone studied was computed. For cotelations between the cyclone velocity propagaions (rst 24 hours and total) and the eoreltons between the propagation directions (Ges 28 hours snd toa), the averages were calelated scale paramter (Sigma) and X RESULTS Data from the NCEPINCAR showed a moderate corelation (- ~ 065) with the data from the meterological station of the Bara do Rio Grande Pilot Station, Note thatthe meteorolopiesl sation of the Basta do Rio Grande Pilot Station sata height of pov Iesve No. 75, 2016in southern Bra 25 mand the ess ofthe reanalysis representa aitade of 10 m, ie, the winds are suonger at greater beighs. This, the ‘measured winds were more intnse than the reanalysis winds. Regarding the distribution of wind speeds over 66 years (tom 1948 to 2013), the speeds from 5 10 10 ms represent approximately 53.89% of the data, The average wind speed was {6:29,m the minimam was O ms, the maximum was 26.21 se andthe standard deviation was 292 ms The percentage Frequency distibtion of the wind direction for all wind ‘intention (1988-2013) reveals tht the main directions were ‘eis (26.094) and northeast (19%) ‘When the probably density Tunction is caleuated using a normal distribution the carve i entered onthe average of 629 ims", Using the Gsnerlied Parto Distbation, 0.01 (1%) probability densiy valve ofall the wind speed values stadia ‘was 17 ms" (Figure 2). Fr locations with frequent hurricanes, ‘he stating post is 189 ms, whichis TO on the TSeale and 'BS on the Beaufort Scale (Maden etal, 2007). The Brain coast has only one recorded huricane, Hurricane Catarina in 200d, andthe choice of threshold msi be appropriate for the climatology ofthe st; ths, for this stay, the tveshold sed for sclstng the extemes of wind speed was 17 me (approximately 61 Ken I"), which is eguivleat to 7.4 on the Beauior: Scale according to George Simpson's table ine eee nt) Speci, sue for PDP oormal davon) and black fo GPD “Analying only wind data wit intention greater tan 17 m ‘main wind dyeedons were west (53.89%) and southwest 733%), Bewwoen 1948 and 2013, 93 events presented wind speeds shove 17 m +, considering 32°50'S,52°50°W asthe reference postion. The mean numberof evens per year was 1 with a ‘nim of @ events and maximum of events per yet. The standard deviation was 125 per yea. In 1998, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2010 and 2011, 4 extreme wind speed events occured. Because the dala of wind speed extremes ae ot. normal (Kolmogorow-Smioy d— 0.21, p< 02), Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA test, which is the aualisis of variance method for fonpararsetic data, was used. The Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA result of 22 groups in year interval showed significant Ailferonces inthe number ofeneeme wind speed events ding the 66.909" period (I (21, N= 66) = 4433 p = 0.018, confidence interval 95%) (Figure 3), The correlation of the umbers of events and the 66year period showed 2 positive correlation ¢~0.84)-In the past 6 years, as showa in Figure 3 fn ineeate in the number of extreme. wind speed events ‘Secured atthe Rio Grande do Sul cost ign 3. Avcrags mater of exteme wind speed events for the 22 The monthly disubusion exkibied bimodal disvibution with peaks in June (22 events) and October (16 evens). May ‘nad 12 events, January and March did not reportedly expevience ny extreme wind evens ove the 66 years, For the 95 events studied, $1 were generated by extraropiesl eyeanes and 12 were generated by anticyelones. (Of the BI events generated by extratropical eyslones, 71 (87.65%) wore assoctted with eyelones that ongnated between 30°S and 40°S, There was no vartion in the disnbution of ‘yclogenesis locations over the 66-year period (¢ 0.145), ‘Within these latitudes, extratropical eyelones were displaced in four dzecuons (east, southeast, south and southwest) The 60 prefered directions of displacement of extratropical cyclones ‘were southeast (Figure 4) and east (Figure 8), accounting for 83 and 24 eyclones,respeetvely. Only fout extatopieal eyelones ‘eaveod inthe other directions of south 3) and southwest (1). ‘The propagation velocities of extratopical cyclones that cxperieneat cyelogenesis between 30°S and A0°S were mostly ‘between 20 and 40 km i" (39), 24 evelones were between 40 and 60 kam 5 were Between 60 and BO kin hand ony 3 were below 20 km ‘A good correlation (r= 0.76) was obseved for the average propagation velocities of extratropical cyclones during the fate trajectories and during tbe fist 24 houts of thet lifcyeles, Thee results showed thatthe extratropical eyclones that generate exreme wind evens tend to manta ther itil propagation velocity. ‘The average direction of extratropical ‘yclone propagation in the fst 24 hours showed a moderate to Strong correlation (¢~ 059) with the average teal propagation ucction of extatopical cyclones, ic, a cyclone tends 10 ‘maintain the same propagtion dretion that was reported inthe first 24 hous Joual of Coastal Reseach, Special Isve No, 75, 2016 isatreme wind i southern Bra “ongiuae Figue 4. Thjecories of extaopial cylones tht expeionced {Selognci within HOPS0° se propagate ou ‘elon thin 50PS0°S wa propegated ea (Of the 93 extieme evens studied, 12 were generated by antcyclones. Similarly to extratropical cyclones, strong winds tae formed by a large pressure gradient: thus, the high pressure ‘enters (anticyclones) sre usually aecompanied by low pressure centers (Gyclones). I is inorsting to te that Rom 1948 to 1977, no exteme wind events wete generated by anisyclones, but between 1978 and 2013, 12 extreme wind events were _eterated by the passage of aniyelones DISCUSSION ‘The NCEPINCAR reanalysis daaset_ proved being particularly usefl in large scale analysis. Although the spatial resolution ofthe data was 25° x 25° (277 x 277 km) the cyclones and antcyelones studied hve diameters of 1.000 km fo more. They are generated by broelinic waves at the ‘iditdss with spatial scale of 3,000 km in regions of ‘westerly Winds, Thus the spatial sosale of the NCEPINCAR reanalysis dataset proves reasonable fora synoptic evaluation of the exveme events sted Tz be 482 02-90p-2006 oN Tonatuds Figure 6 Tjccory of the exratupicl cyclone on Apel 16,1999 (et), Tajecory ofthe extabopcleyclane a September 2, 2006 (es Latte In the past 66 years, as shown in Figure 3, am increase inthe umber of extreme wind speed events occumed at the Rio Grande do Sul cout Recent studies sugges! that eyelone activity in both hennsphotes changed over the sscond half ofthe 20 century. General features include a pleward shit in storm wack Tocetions, am increase in orm intensities, and «decrease i ol storm mumbers (Simmonds and Keay, 2000). According t0 UPC," 2007, milastede westerly winds ave generally Increased in och hemispheres. Significant inteases in the strength of intense extratropical cyclone systems have beea documented in sever studies and are associated with changes in the prefered storm tracks (Kalnay et al, 1986), Intense cextattopial cyclones are ofan associated with extome ‘Weather, particularly wit severe windstorms. “The meteorological seup of April 17th, 1999 extreme event was unusual Because the pati ofthe cycloue that developed off the RS coast nearly formed a loop without much forwacd motion (Figue 6). The average propagation velocity of this eyctone was 12.66 km Be foward 131.21"The wind speed was 18.46 m=" (22697), This extraropical cyclone presented the lowest ‘ropogation velocity ofall eyelones studied. Machado ef a (010) sued this event and ebserved signin! wave heights (608 m) with periods of 12:95 «This sorm caused severe ‘rosion at Hermencpiido Beach ($5 mm, The storm of September 2, 2006 had 17.26 m s” of wind spect end 255.2 of dtection. This eyclone had & propagation ‘Velocity of 44.41 kom and moved toward the souteast (Figure ‘6.This event coincided with one of the extratropical cyclones studied by Parise eral (2009) and Machado tal. (2010). Tais particular cyclones eaused a storm surge of 1.83 m and a ‘Senificant wave height of 7.13 m (Tpo13.91 3). The effets of the paseage this extatopical eyclone were not restricted just south of Brazil. Were reconded impacts onthe coast ofthe city (of Rio de Janeiro, as eroron and sorm surge. Other storms Journal of Coastal Research, Spesal Issue No. 75,2016 las[xtreme wind in southern Bra studied by Machado e a. (2010) showed Hs 879 m and storm Surge of 188 0, "Basod on the graphs in Figure 3, the disribution patern of extreme wind speed evens in the 1970s changed: tis pater ineides with the 1976-1977 climate shift (Miler etal 1995, Giese et af, 2002), Observations fom the Tropical Pcie ‘Ocean show an abrpe change in the climate inthe year 1976 in ‘which the ccean surface temperature increased fom older than normal 19 warmer than normal over a prio of one year (Giese ‘tal, 2002) This observed shit in the Pacific added more heat {0 the global atmosphere, ie, mote energy tothe system, This phenomenon may eause an increase in the number of high nergy storm evens. An invesigation by Graham and Diaz (2001) in the Norte Pacific indicates that tere has been an Increase in the intensity of storms since 1948, ie, over atleast half «century. They suggested thatthe progressive increase of the intensity of waves generated by the storms and winds may be the result of wamer Water temperatures in the topical ‘westem Pacific, providing posible Ik to global warming. CONCLUSIONS Dering the 66 yours studied, only 0.159% of the wind speed ata were equal to or greater than 17 ms") There was an Irene i the number of extreme wind speed events slong the coast of Rio Grande do Sul over the study period (1948-2013). ‘The increase in the foguency of extreme evens of wind, il ‘modify and increase the coastal hazards like wind waves, stom surge, and erosion is southern Brazil “The min weaher systems that generate strong winds on the shore of Rio Grande do Sel are extatopieal eyelones (871%) followed by antiyelones (12.9%). Exuatropcaleyciones have ‘wo prefered trajectories: southeast and cast, both generate large waves, erosion ad storm surges. The propagation velocity of extratropical cyclones is predominantly between 20 and 40 mah" (61.97%), fllowed by velocities between 40 and 60 km 68.03%). “The average propagation velocity and average propagation Airection of extratropical eylones ae similar to the propagation ‘velocity and propagation dtetion that occur ding the fist 24 hours of eyelone' ifeeyele. This can be usful for prodising the trajectories of exatropical cyclone, "The most severe effect of extreme events recorded atthe Rio Grande do Sul coast were erosion upto 45 mm", a storm surge Of L88 m, nda wind speed 9f 26.21 mt (94.38 kh) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. “Ths ancl i contribution ofthe Brazilian National Insitute ‘of Science and Technology (INCT) for Climste Change funded by CNPa Grant Number $75797/2008.0, This research is Sppored by Capes-EditalCiéncias do Mar 09/2009. 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