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International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701 710

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International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpvp

A method of creep rupture data extrapolation based on physical processes

M.G. Leinster
Leinster Consulting, Gladstone, QLD 4680, Australia

a r t i c l e in fo abstract

Article history: There is a need for a reliable method to extrapolate generic creep rupture data to failure times in excess
Received 26 February 2007 of the currently published times. A method based on well-understood and mathematically described
Received in revised form physical processes is likely to be stable and reliable. Creep process descriptions have been developed
1 March 2008 based on accepted theory, to the extent that good ts with published data have been obtained. Methods
Accepted 14 March 2008
have been developed to apply these descriptions to extrapolate creep rupture data to stresses below the
published values.
Keywords: The relationship creep life parameter f(ln(sinh(stress))) has been shown to be justiable over the
Creep
stress ranges of most interest, and gives realistic results at high temperatures and long times to failure.
Rupture
In the interests of continuity with past and present practice, the suggested method is intended to extend
Extrapolation
Polynomial
existing polynomial descriptions of life parameters at low stress. Where no polynomials exist, the
sinh method can be used to describe the behaviour of life parameters throughout the full range of a
particular failure mode in the published data.
& 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Background where tr is the time to rupture; log(ta) is a material constant; T is

Calculations of component creep life often involve the use of
applied stress values that are lower than the range in published creep
rupture data. This can imply creep life of components greater than
the times in the published data (4250,000 h). For use in the industry,
a reliable and conservative method is required to extrapolate creep
rupture properties to failure times in excess of the published lives in
order to be able to take advantage of the reduction in creep life
expenditure for the time the component is operating at low stress. It
is desirable to achieve high accuracy for the process of extrapolation
of creep rupture life, where overestimation could result in failure
earlier than expected with very dangerous consequences, or under-
estimation where costly plant life assessment, replacement, derating
or shutdown could be indicated earlier than necessary.
BS PD 6525 [1] and ISO/TR 7468 [2] have tabulations of test
data vs temperature and time to failure, and coefcients of
polynomials to represent the relationship of a life parameter to
log(stress). The polynomials give a very good t to the published
data, but can behave unstably outside the published range. (It is
assumed that the values in the data tables were generated using
the polynomial equations.)
BS PD 6525 uses a generalised timetemperature life para-
meter, which is dened as
BSP logt r  logt a =T  T a r
E-mail address: malcolm.leinster@tpg.com.au
the operating temperature, K; Ta is a material constant, K, r is a
constant, normally taking values of 1 or 1.
Varying the constants within this denition allows the
generation of several standard parameters such as the Larson
Miller and MansonHaferd parameters, which are listed below. In
most cases in the BS PD6525 data BSP is the equivalent of the
MansonHaferd parameter.
The MansonHaferd parameter (MHP), dened as
MHP logt r  logt a =T  T a
is the life parameter used for most of the text of this document.
For the common high-temperature alloys, MHP takes values that
are negative for normal working stresses. A less negative value of
MHP implies longer time to rupture at constant temperature,
higher exposure temperature for constant time to rupture, or a
combination of both, and also implies lower operating stress. In
this document, graphs and tabulations of BSP can be read as MHP.
The life parameter that is probably in widest use is the
LarsonMiller parameter (LMP), dened as
LMP T=1000logt r C
where C is the LarsonMiller constant.
The example of the polynomial function of BSP vs log(stress)
for 2.25Cr, 1.0Mo N&T o750 1C (Fig. 1) from BS PD 6525 shows a
downward curvature at low stress, implying unrealistic decreas-
ing life with decreasing stress. (It is believed that it was not the

0308-0161/$ - see front matter & 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijpvp.2008.03.001
 ARTICLE IN PRESS

702 M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710

Nomenclature k4, k5 and k6 are constants

k7 and k8 are coefcients in the relationship of MHP to stress
BSP the temperaturetime parameter used in BS PD6525 based on the sinh(stress) creep rate relationship
to represent life kA, kB and kC are coefcients in the relationship of LMP to stress
C LarsonMiller constant based on the sinh(stress) creep rate relationship
ErrorFunction1, ErrorFunction2, ErrorFunction3 are values of a ku, kv are coefcients in the linear relationship of MHP to stress
relative-error function squared derived from three kx, ky, kz are coefcients in the ln(sinh( )) relationship of MHP to
different combinations of life parameters stress
LMP LarsonMiller parameter log(ta) a material constant
MHP MansonHaferd parameter n a stress exponent
MHPA, MHPB, MHPC, MHPD, MHPCombined are values of MHP r a constant, normally taking values of 1 or 1
each derived by a different method tr time to rupture
k a time scaling constant in the power law creep life T operating temperature, K
relationship Ta a material constant, K
k0 a time scaling constant er creep strain at rupture
k1 a stress scaling constant s applied stress, MPa
k2 and k3 are coefcients in the linear function of MHP to stress
arising from the exponential relationship between tr
and stress

2.25 Cr 1.0 Mo Normalised & Tempered at < 750 C

0.00000
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
-0.10000
BS Parameter

-0.20000

-0.30000

-0.40000

-0.50000
Published Data BS Polynomial
-0.60000
log (stress / MPa)

Fig. 1. Typical plot of life parameter for 2.25Cr 1.0Mo steel. The published data follow an orderly, steadily reducing trend with decreasing stress. Extrapolation below the
published limits shows an unintended downward trend.

intention of the authors of this equation that it be used outside
the published data range.) This shows the dangers of extrapola-
tion beyond intended limits.
One method of handling this difculty is to employ poly-
nomials of lower order, with the aim to achieve predictable and
stable behaviour outside the published range. There is no physical
justication for any particular polynomial chosen mainly for its
stability and look. Polynomials are arbitrary mathematical
functions, and do not necessarily have any relationship with the
physical processes governing failure by creep.
If a relationship of the physical processes of creep failure could
be described mathematically, it should be possible to use this
relationship to extrapolate outside the published range with some
condence. This document reports on such a relationship.
2. Physical process of creep
It is now generally accepted that for material undergoing creep
at constant temperature and load there are two competing creep
processes as described by Wilshire and Burt [3]:
Primary creepThere is a rapid initial strain rate, continually
decreasing as a result of strain-hardening mechanisms.
Primary creep rate will be a function of stress and time.
Tertiary creepStrain rate is initially low and accelerates
throughout the life of the component until failure occurs.
The apparent loss of resistance to creep in this regime is the
result of softening and internal damage processes. The tertiary
material softening and damage mechanisms eventually over-
whelm the primary strain-hardening effect. Tertiary creep rate
will also be a function of stress and time. Different authors may
use different denitions of tertiary creep. This document
follows the denition of Evans and Wilshire in their theta-
projection methodology (quoted in [3]), where
tertiary creep strain total creep strain  primary creep strain
Where there is an approximate balance between primary and
tertiary creep rates, a prolonged period of apparent steady-state
creep can result. This steady-state process is termed secondary
creep. The most accurate modern approaches do not need to
rely on the concept of secondary creep for prediction of creep
rupture life.
A minimum creep rate will be achieved when the combination
of accelerating tertiary creep and the decreasing primary creep
reaches a minimum. In physical terms, there is a balance between
the rate of material softening and damage, and the rate of strain
hardening. The minimum creep rate at a particular temperature
will be a function of stress and time.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS

M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710 703

The widely accepted MonkmanGrant [4,5] relationship 3.2. Exponential relationship

describes the observation that generally, the product of time
to rupture and minimum creep rate (MonkmanGrant ductility) Fig. 3 shows the same data using the relationship with
is a constant for a particular material. Phaniraj et al. [6] regression lines based on the relationship
have shown that for a very wide range of materials there is a
constant ratio between rupture time and time to reach the t r k0 ek1 s (2)
MonkmanGrant ductility, provided the failure mechanism does
not change. It can be seen by inspection that the t of these regression lines
For most of the applications of interest (i.e. at relatively low is better than for the power law relationship.
stress), materials spend most of their creep life in the tertiary Table 2 shows the coefcients of the exponential law
creep range. Most materials can be expected to experience regression equations, and the r2 values for each equation. It can
different failure mechanisms at different temperatures and be seen that there is better correlation than for the power law
applied stresses [7,8]. An equation describing the creep processes throughout the full range of data.
should be valid within any particular creep damage mode, but From Eq. (2)
will not necessarily apply to all damage modes. Typical examples
of different failure modes are intergranular and transgranular lnk0 k1 s
creep. logt r (3)
ln10
The change in slope of the curve of time to rupture vs
log(stress) with changing failure mode has been widely docu- From the denition of the MHP,
mented for many years [9], and continues to attract interest
[1013]. An ideal representation of the creep process throughout logt r  logt a
the full tested stress range might therefore be by a series of MHP (4)
T  Ta
continuous functions that coincide at the changeover stress/
temperature boundaries for different failure modes.
Table 1
Coefcients in power-law equations representing time-to-rupture vs stress

3. Mathematical description of creep process and strain rate Temperature (K) Coefcients in equation tr k  stressn
relationships
k (h) n r2

3.1. Power law relationship

743 6.237561E+24 8.531800E+00 9.960806E01
753 1.005173E+23 7.941147E+00 9.952124E01
It is commonly stated that creep rupture at constant 763 2.763203E+21 7.426074E+00 9.938975E01
temperature occurs according to the relationship 773 6.318853E+19 6.853260E+00 9.947995E01
783 1.544798E+18 6.268532E+00 9.934558E01
t r ksn (1) 793 5.803675E+16 5.750380E+00 9.919776E01
803 1.645254E+15 5.149423E+00 9.875315E01
n is not constant, but varies non-linearly with temperature [14]. 813 1.093518E+14 4.710115E+00 9.901754E01
823 5.514860E+12 4.186905E+00 9.886382E01
When the BS PD6525 data are plotted for constant tempera-
833 1.169483E+06 3.444938 9.698076E01
ture, different regression equations can be tted to the data. The 843 1.625918E+11 3.641476E+00 9.744014E01
above power law relationship is a reasonably good, but not the 853
best, t. The full data range for 2.25Cr 1.0Mo steel, plotted against 863
regression lines based on the power law are shown in Fig. 2. Average (r2) 9.887252E01

Coefcients of the individual curves together with measures of 2

The r values appear reasonable, but a better t is achieved with an exponential
goodness of t are shown in Table 1. relationship, see Table 2.

2.25 Cr 1.0 Mo N&T < 750 C 743

Power Relationship of Stress with Time to Rupture 753
250,000 763
773
783
793
803
200,000 813
Rupture Time (hrs)

823
833
843
150,000 853
863
Power (743)
Power (753)
100,000 Power (763)
Power (773)
Power (783)
Power (793)
50,000 Power (803)
Power (813)
Power (823)
Expon. (833)
0 Power (843)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Power (853)
Power (863)
Stress (MPa)

Fig. 2. Isothermal plots of rupture times vs stress. Isothermals are in order of increasing temperature from right to left. Trendlines are tted according to a power law
Eq. (1).
 ARTICLE IN PRESS

704 M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710

743
2.25 Cr 1.0 Mo N&T < 750 C 753
Exponential Relationship of Stress with Time to Rupture 763
250,000 773
783
793
803
200,000 813
823
Rupture Time (hrs)

833
843
150,000 853
863
Expon. (743)
Expon. (753)
100,000 Expon. (763)
Expon. (773)
Expon. (783)
50,000 Expon. (793)
Expon. (803)
Expon. (813)
Expon. (823)
0 Expon. (833)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Expon. (843)
Expon. (853)
Stress (MPa) Expon. (863)

Fig. 3. Isothermal plots of rupture times vs stress. Isothermals are in order of increasing temperature from right to left. Trendlines are tted according to an exponential Eq.
(2). The t of the trendlines is noticeably better than for the power law, and this is quantied in Tables 1 and 2.

Table 2 Table 3
Coefcients in exponential relationship (Eq. 2) representing time-to-rupture vs Original data table with published extreme extrapolation values included (2.25Cr
stress 1.0Mo stress to rupture (MPa))

Temperature (K) Coefcients in equation tr k0  exp(k1  stress) Temperature (1C) Time to rupture (h)

1 2
k0 (h) k1 (MPa ) r 10,000 30,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

743 2.603311E+08 3.747267E+00 9.998526E01 470 271 242 229 210 199 191 184
753 1.459314E+08 3.920890E02 9.997413E01 480 244 217 204 186 175 168 162
763 8.855891E+07 4.122165E02 9.996163E01 490 220 194 182 165 155 147 141
773 4.944441 E+07 4.266846E02 9.998261E01 500 199 174 162 145 136 129 123
783 2.800780E+07 4.399464E02 9.998030E01 510 180 156 144 128 119 112 107
793 1.693977E+07 4.574169E02 9.996356E01 520 162 139 128 112 103 97 91
803 9.667681E+06 4.682413E02 9.992231E01 530 146 124 113 98 89 82 78
813 6.079850E+06 4.876359E02 9.993837E01 540 131 110 99 84 76 70 65
823 3.665749E+06 5.002186E02 9.999769E01 550 118 96 86 72 64 58 53
833 1.955268E+06 4.985659E02 9.976059E01 560 105 84 74 61 52 44
843 570 92 73 64 49
853 580 82 63 53
863 590 72 52
Average (r2) 9.994665E01 600 63
610 53
The errors, represented by 1r2, are less than those for the power law (Eq. (1)) by
an order of magnitude.

Substituting Eq. (3) into Eq. (4), This relationship works well for the relatively high stresses
reported in the published data. However, when the relationship is
lnk0 k1 s= ln10  logt a tested by using it to reconstruct the stress-to-rupture tables in BS
MHP (5)
T  Ta PD6525, errors are apparent outside the area of published data at
Separating stress-dependent terms, very long rupture times and high temperatures, with some
negative stress values being generated. This can be seen by
lnk0  ln10 logt a k1 s comparing Tables 3 and 4. While this relationship is still useful at
MHP (6)
ln10T  T a ln10T  T a practical operating stress levels, it is suspect for accurate
Dene representation of the creep rupture process at low stress and
points to the need for an even more accurate representation.
lnk0  ln10 logt a
k2 (7)
ln10T  T a 3.3. sinh relationship
and
Creep strain theory [5,15,16] predicts that the creep strain rate
k1 relationship will be of the type
k3 (8)
ln10T  T a    
k5 s Q
Substitute Eqs. (7) and (8) into Eq. (6), Strain rate k4 sinh exp (10)
RT RT
MHP k2 k3 s (9) Using the results of Phaniraj et al. [6],

That is, for constant temperature, MHP is a linear function of k6 r

tr (11)
stress. Strain rate
 ARTICLE IN PRESS

M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710 705

Table 4
Data table generated using only the linear relationship of BSP with stress (2.25Cr 1.0Mo stress to rupture (MPa))

Temperature (1C) Time to rupture (h)

10,000 30,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

470 283.3 248.9 232.9 211.2 198.5 189.4 182.4 176.7 171.9 167.7 164.0 160.7
480 252.4 220.4 205.5 185.3 173.4 165.1 158.6 153.2 148.7 144.8 141.4 138.3
490 225.5 195.6 181.6 162.8 151.7 143.9 137.8 132.8 128.6 125.0 121.8 118.9
500 201.9 173.8 160.7 143.0 132.6 125.3 119.6 114.9 111.0 107.5 104.5 101.8
510 181.0 154.6 142.2 125.5 115.8 108.8 103.5 99.1 95.4 92.1 89.3 86.8
520 162.5 137.4 125.8 110.0 100.7 94.2 89.1 85.0 81.4 78.4 75.7 73.3
530 145.8 122.1 111.0 96.0 87.3 81.1 76.2 72.3 69.0 66.1 63.6 61.3
540 130.8 108.2 97.7 83.5 75.1 69.2 64.7 60.9 57.7 55.0 52.6 50.4
550 117.2 95.7 85.7 72.1 64.1 58.5 54.1 50.6 47.6 44.9 42.6 40.6
560 104.8 84.2 74.7 61.7 54.1 48.8 44.6 41.2 38.3 35.8 33.6 31.6
570 93.4 73.8 64.6 52.2 45.0 39.8 35.8 32.6 29.8 27.4 25.3 23.4
580 83.0 64.2 55.4 43.5 36.6 31.6 27.8 24.7 22.0 19.8 17.7 15.9
590 73.5 55.4 46.9 35.5 28.8 24.1 20.4 17.4 14.9 12.7 10.7 9.0
600 64.6 47.2 39.1 28.1 21.7 17.1 13.6 10.7 8.3 6.1 4.3 2.6
610 56.4 39.7 31.9 21.3 15.1 10.7 7.3 4.5 2.1 0.1 1.7 3.3

Agreement with the original data is good. Deviation from published data at high stress is thought to be the result of a different creep mechanism acting in this regime. In
this case no attempt was made specically to t this high-stress data. The generation of negative stress values at high temperature and long exposure times is an indication
of a slight problem with the generating function.

Comparision of Functions x much larger than 0 Comparision of Functions x approaching 0

80 4
70 sinh (x) (exp (x)-1)/2 exp (x)/2
3.5
60
3
50
2.5
f (x)

40 exp (x)/2
f (x)

2
30
20 1.5 sinh (x)
10 1 (exp (x)-1)/2
0 0.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0
x 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
x
Fig. 4. Apparent coincidence of the three functions at large values of x.
Fig. 5. Divergence of the three functions as x approaches 0.

Substituting Eq. (10) into Eq. (11), The function sinh(x) is almost identical to the function (ex1)/2.
This latter function is the form used by Evans and Wilshire [17] in
k6 r their theta-projection method to give very accurate descriptions of
tr

(12)
k4 sinh k5 s=RT exp Q =RT the tertiary phase of creep.
Taking logs of Eq. (12), Fig. 4 shows the apparent coincidence of the three functions
ex/2, sinh(x) and (ex1)/2 at values of x much greater than 0,
lnk6 lnr  lnk4  lnsinhk5 s=RT  Q =RT whereas Fig. 5 shows the differences between the functions as x
logt r
ln10 approaches 0.
(13) This explains the ease of tting an exponential relationship at
Substituting Eq. (13) into Eq. (4), the level of working stresses, whereas the differences between the
functions at low stress become important when using the
lnk6 lnr  lnk4  lnsinhk5 s=RT Q =RT  ln10 logt a functions to reconstruct stress-to-rupture tables or when solving
MHP
ln10T  T a stress-relaxation problems.
(14) Excellent ts to the published data can be obtained using
Collecting stress-dependent and stress-independent terms, and the sinh function, and the extrapolated values avoid the
dening negative stress feature of the exponential function. This
can be seen by comparing Tables 35. An example of a t
lnk6 lnr  lnk4 Q =RT  ln10 logt a to the complete published data for 2.25Cr 1.0Mo steel is shown
k7 (15)
ln10T  T a in Fig. 6.
In times when computers were rare and curve tting was done
1
k8 (16) manually, power law creep relationships would have been
ln10T  T a convenient to use. In modern times, with computers and
   spreadsheets being universally available, there is little (if any)
k5 s
MHP k7  k8 ln sinh (17) added inconvenience in using functions that represent the creep
RT
process more accurately, and there is more condence in the
For constant temperature, MHP is a linear function of outcome when the description of the creep process can be
ln(sinh(stress)). justied theoretically.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
706 M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710
2.25 Cr 1.0 Mo Normalised & Tempered at <750 C BSP = f(sinh(stress))
0.00000
0 50
-0.00500
-0.00100
-0.01500
BS Parameter
-0.02000
-0.02500
-0.03000
-0.03500
-0.04000
-0.04500
Published Data
-0.05000
Fig. 6. Graph showing published creep data and life parameter values calculated using the extrapolation function derived from the sinh(stress) creep relationship. The
extrapolation function has not been constrained to pass through any particular stress point from the published data table. The departure from the published data at high
stress is thought to be due to a change in creep mechanism. The region of interest for extrapolation is at low stress.
BS PD 6525 uses a version of the MHP, which is very versatile
in describing material creep performance. Values of the MHP
derived from either the exponential relationship or the sinh
relationship agree closely with the published data. Even better
agreement is achieved when values extrapolated for extended
time and/or stress in the published data are deleted when tting
the new extrapolation function.
Some materials such as 1Cr 0.5Mo present a problem, as the
data have an inection in the published range. The treatment of
this problem is discussed later in this paper.
The method is robust as the required equations can be
derived with few data points. In cases where the constants ta
and Ta are not documented, they can be found using analysis
with standard spreadsheet solver functions, as explained later in
this paper.
The same method as was used to obtain Eq. (17) can be applied
to obtain the result
LMP kA  kB lnsinhkC s
4. Methodology to determine extrapolation functions
Some computer spreadsheet programs have solver functions
that can be used to drive a target cell to a desired value, a
minimum or maximum by varying other specied cells. Con-
straints may also be applied to force the solution to meet set
criteria. This methodology has been developed using such
spreadsheet programs.
4.1. Using a computer spreadsheet to derive descriptive constants
The following data are required for each test pointapplied
stress, exposure temperature, time to rupture (or time to achieve a
set end point, such as a dened creep strain).
A table is prepared showing applied stress against time to
rupture and exposure temperature.
Dummy constants log(ta) and Ta are set up and used to
calculate values of MHPA (or other preferred life parameters)
for each data point from the denition of that parameter.
For example
logt r  logt a
MHPA
T  Ta
100 150 200 250 300
ExtrapolationFunction
Stress to Rupture (MPa)
Dummy coefcients are set up for a polynomial of desired order,
and used to calculate values of MHPB for each data point using the
relationship
MHPB polynomiallogstress
A polynomial is chosen with high enough order to track changes
in slope resulting from different failure modes.
For each test data point an error function is calculated, where
 
MHPB  MHPA 2
ErrorFunction1
MHPA
This form of relative-error squared function is chosen in
preference to a simple-error squared function of the type
(MHPBMHPA)2 to overcome problems with limited precision
with some spreadsheet programs.
A solver function is used to minimise the sum of the values of
ErrorFunction1 for all the test points by varying the values of the
(18) MHPA constants log(ta) and Ta and the MHPB polynomial
coefcients. This will produce an initial representation of the
MHP and its relationship with stress. The constants and
coefcients thus determined provide the standard polynomial
representation of MHP vs log(stress). All of these quantities will be
employed in later steps.
Once the MHPA constants log(ta) and Ta are known, calculated
values of MHPA, MHPB, MHPC and MHPD (see following deni-
tions) are displayed graphically against stress so that the analyst
can observe the goodness of t of functions to the original data.
4.2. Determining whether there is a change in failure mechanism
A plot of MHPA and MHPB vs stress should appear as a
substantially straight line for any particular failure mechanism.
Obvious changes in slope are likely to indicate a change in failure
mechanism. A different function should be tted to each
straight line segment, while ensuring continuity between
segments. Fig. 7 shows the life parameter for 1.0Cr 0.5Mo steel
vs stress, and two obvious straight segments can be seen joined
by a transition region. Because the published data for this material
are derived from a polynomial representation of the life
parameter, it is quite possible that the appearance of the
transition region is an artefact of the polynomial as opposed to
a point intersection of two straight-line segments.

M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710
1.0 Cr 0.5 Mo (N&T) Steel Combined Creep Rupture Relationship
0.00000
0 50
-0.00500
BS PD 6525 Parameter
-0.00100
-0.01500
-0.02000
-0.02500
-0.03000
-0.03500
Published Data
-0.04000
Fig. 7. Combination of original polynomial function for stress 438.01 MPa with extrapolation function for stress o38.01 MPa. The exact value of 38.01 MPa is chosen to
coincide with a published data point. Failure to use exact values can result in step changes between the polynomial and the extrapolation function at the changeover stress.
4.3. Fitting a ln(sinh(stress)) function to test data
Data that appear to t on a straight-line segment are chosen
and selected for more precise further analysis as follows.
A table of MHPA values for the selected data points is generated
using the values of log(ta) and Ta already determined.
For each data point, a new function is calculated using dummy
constants kx, ky and kz.
MHPC kx  ky lnsinhkz s
For each data point an error function is calculated, where
 
MHPC  MHPA 2
ErrorFunction2
MHPA
The solver function is used to minimise the sum of the values of
ErrorFunction2 by varying only the values of kx, ky and kz. The nal
values of these constants now dene the desired ln(sinh(stress))
function.
4.4. Overcoming convergence problems with non-linear functions
In many cases the solver needs to be given starting conditions
close to the nal solution in order to converge properly. This can
be achieved by rst tting the function MHPD ku+kvs using the
same solver technique as previously. Experience has shown that
this function gives rapid convergence to an accurate solution.
Starting values for the MHPC constants can then be obtained by
substituting kx ku, ky kv, kz 1.0. Experience has also shown
that kz is very close to 1.0, and, if desired, the solver can be
restricted to varying kx and ky, leaving kz unchanged at 1.0.
4.5. Combining functions to give a continuous description of life
parameters
The user has the choice to use the polynomial description of
the data at the high-stress end of the test region, and switching to
the MHPC function only at low stress, or to t several MHPC
functions to the various straight-line segments in the data. Where
several straight-line segments are used, solution of the simulta-
neous equations of adjacent line segments will give the intersec-
tion points, and therefore dene the limit of applicability of each
MHPC function.
Pseudo-code for formulae to cover the full investigated range
for a material using a combination of polynomial(log(stress)) and
ARTICLE IN PRESS
707
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Combined Function
Stress to rupture (MPa)
ln(sinh(stress)) might then appear as:
ifstress in range 1 then LifeParameter : MHPB stress
else ifstressorange 1 then LifeParameter : MHPC stress
else errorstress out of range
4.6. Stepless transition between functions
It is necessary to achieve stepless transitions between func-
tions so that there is no unexpected jump in life parameter (and
therefore implied life) for a very small change in stress. Where it is
desired to extend the range of applicability of an existing function,
a transition point is chosen where the new function is constrained
to coincide exactly with the existing function. Where the existing
function is a polynomial, the transition point should be at the start
of a recognisable straight line part of the curve.
5. Applications of methodology
5.1. Case 1substantial test data are available and there has been no
prior analysis
It is desired to describe the relationships between stress and
life parameters using the new functions described previously.
In this case, the sequence of steps involving MHPA, MHPB and
ErrorFunction1 would be followed to establish a polynomial
function for the stresslife parameter relationship. MHPD, Error-
Function2, MHPC and ErrorFunction2 would be used on straight-
line segments as required to t the ln(sinh(stress)) relationship.
5.2. Case 2a mathematical description already exists to cover test
data
It is desired to nd an expression to give safe and reliable
extrapolation to stresses below the test range. It is necessary to
have a stepless transition from the original equation to the
extrapolation function.
The graph of life parameter vs stress is examined to check that
a substantial number of reliable data points exist in the lowest-
stress linear segment of the curve. These same reliable data points
are selected, deleting any which have been noted as being extreme
extrapolations in time or stress. The value of stress is nominated
where the stepless transition between the two functions should
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708 M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710

occur. The MHPC function is tted to the selected data points They should also demonstrate believable projections for stresses
using the solver process described previously, constraining the below the range of test data.
solver to force the MHPC function to pass through the transition To recreate a table of stress-to-rupture values against time and
point. temperature, a value of MHPA is calculated for each time
In order not to introduce numerical errors resulting from temperature combination using the formula
rounding effects in published stress-to-rupture tables, the pub-
lished function relating life parameter and stress is used to logt r  logt a
MHPA
generate a high-precision table of stresses vs time to rupture and T  Ta
temperature. The general polynomial form of the equation to the
If the life parameter is represented entirely by line segments of
life parameter vs stress is potentially intractable to solve;
the form
however, indirect solutions of these functions are relatively
straightforward. MHPD ku kv s

then setting MHPD MHPA, the MHPD formula can be rearranged

5.3. Regenerating accurate input data
to obtain an explicit expression for stress within each segment:

A table is established initially with dummy values of stress for MHPD  ku

each time and temperature combination. For each time and
temperature combination, a value of the life parameter can be
calculated from the denition of the life parameter, e.g. as for
MHPA:
logt r  logt a
MHPA
T  Ta
Using the relationship of life parameter vs stress, another table
of life parameters can be generated from the table of dummy
stress values, e.g. as for MHPB:
MHPB polynomiallogstress
For each data point an error function is calculated
 
MHPB  MHPA 2
ErrorFunction1
MHPA
The solver is then used to minimise the sum of all the
ErrorFunction1 values by varying the values in the dummy stress
table while holding the material constants invariant. The resulting
values in the stress-to-rupture table are the desired high-
precision data points required for further analysis.
5.4. Validation of new functions
If the functions chosen to represent the material properties are
valid, they should be capable of recreating the original input data.
s
kv
This process was used to generate the stress values in Table 4. In
this case a single linear (MHPD) function was tted to the whole
range of data, while accepting the obvious deviations from
tabulated values at high stress.
Similarly, if the life parameter is represented entirely by line
segments of the form
MHPC kx  ky lnsinhkz s
then setting MHPC MHPA, the MHPC formula can be rearranged
to obtain an explicit expression for stress:
 

a sinh exp kx  MHPC ky
s
kz
This process was used to generate the stress values in Table 5. In
this case a single ln(sinh(stress)) (MHPC) function was tted to the
whole range of data, while accepting the obvious deviations from
tabulated values at high stress.
If the life parameter representation includes polynomial
functions, the best general strategy (assuming that the poly-
nomials will be of high order) is to use the indirect solver method,
as follows:
A table of dummy stress-to-rupture values is set up corre-
sponding to each value of MHPA. The stress values in this table are
used to calculate a corresponding table of MHPCombined values
using formulae MHPB or MHPC depending on which formula is

Table 5
Data table generated using only the ln(sinh) relationship of BSP with stress, showing close agreement with the published data and the linear function, while avoiding the
negative value problem of the linear function (2.25Cr 1.0Mo stress to rupture (MPa))

Temperature (1C) Time to rupture (h)

10,000 30,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

470 283.4 248.9 232.9 211.2 198.5 189.4 182.4 176.7 171.9 167.7 164.0 160.7
480 252.4 220.4 205.5 185.3 173.5 165.1 158.6 153.2 148.7 144.8 141.4 138.3
490 225.5 195.6 181.7 162.8 151.7 143.9 137.8 132.8 128.6 125.0 121.8 118.9
500 201.9 173.8 160.7 143.0 132.6 125.3 119.6 114.9 111.0 107.5 104.5 101.8
510 181.0 154.6 142.3 125.5 115.8 108.8 103.5 99.1 95.3 92.1 89.3 86.7
520 162.5 137.4 125.8 110.0 100.7 94.2 89.1 84.9 81.4 78.4 75.7 73.3
530 145.8 122.1 111.0 96.0 87.3 81.1 76.2 72.3 69.0 66.1 63.5 61.3
540 130.8 108.2 97.7 83.5 75.1 69.2 64.6 60.9 57.7 55.0 52.6 50.4
550 117.2 95.6 85.6 72.1 64.1 58.5 54.1 50.6 47.5 44.9 42.6 40.6
560 104.8 84.2 74.7 61.7 54.1 48.7 44.6 41.2 38.3 35.8 33.6 31.6
570 93.4 73.8 64.6 52.2 45.0 39.8 35.8 32.6 29.8 27.4 25.3 23.4
580 83.0 64.2 55.4 43.5 36.6 31.6 27.8 24.7 22.0 19.7 17.7 15.9
590 73.5 55.4 46.9 35.5 28.8 24.1 20.4 17.4 14.9 12.7 10.7 9.0
600 64.6 47.2 39.1 28.1 21.7 17.1 13.6 10.7 8.2 6.1 4.3 2.6
610 56.4 39.6 31.8 21.2 15.0 10.7 7.2 4.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0

In this simple t to the published data, no attempt has been made to address the deviation from the test data at high stress, thought to be an indication of a different creep
failure mechanism.

M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710
applicable for each point value of stress. An error table is formed
using the formula
 
MHPCombined  MHPA 2
ErrorFunction3
MHPA
The solver function is used to minimise the sum of the values of
ErrorFunction3 by varying only the values in the dummy stress
table. The resulting stress values after solving are the allowable
stresses for each timetemperature combination.
This process was used to generate the data for the combined
function in Fig. 7, which shows the good accuracy achieved in
tting the original data.
6. Materials with complex creep behaviour
An example of application to a material exhibiting a change
in creep rate (and presumably a change in creep mechanism)
is 1.0Cr 0.5Mo, where there is a distinct change in slope of
the curve of MHP vs stress at low stress. The ln(sinh(stress))
function has been applied to the most reliable data points
below the changeover stress, while the original polynomial has
been used for the remainder of the published data. The
extrapolation function has been constrained to pass through the
lowest reliable stress point in the region represented by the
polynomial. This ensures stepless transition between polynomial
and extrapolation function. The combined relationship is illust-
rated in Fig. 7.
7. Using the extrapolation functions
Applied stresses, and time and temperature of application are
determined for a particular component. From the applied stress a
value of MHP is calculated using the published polynomials if the
stress is within the polynomial stress range, or using the
extrapolation function at stresses below the changeover stress.
The MHP value so determined is used in conjunction with the
known temperature inputs to calculate the unknown time to
rupture.
T91 NRIM Creep Data Sheet No. 43 MHP constants optimised for sinh fn.
0
0 50
-0.01
Manson-Haferd Parameter
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
-0.06
Fig. 8. NIMS test data for T91 steel (NRIM creep data sheet no. 43, 1996). The values of the MHP constants have been optimised to give the best t to the sinh(stress)-based
relationship. A single function has been tted to all of the data.
ARTICLE IN PRESS
709
8. Issues
8.1. Simplicity
The exponential relationship between stress and time to
rupture results in a simple relationship between MHP and stress,
which is easy to derive. Using the simple exponential relationship,
solvers always converge quickly to a correct solution. The sinh
relationship between stress and time to rupture results in a
relationship between MHP and stress, which is more complex and
can involve some difculty in quantifying. Some solvers do not
converge easily to the correct solution, and it is often necessary to
supply the solver with starting conditions that are close to the
nal solution. It may not be worth the extra effort to use the sinh
relationship for modest extrapolations, although the original
relationships need only be developed once, reviewed thoroughly
and then published for general use. The modied exponential
relationship (ex1)/2 has the same level of difculty as the sinh
relationship, but has the advantage that it can be applied
relatively easily to creep relaxation problems.
8.2. Source data
The most commonly available sources of data, and those
mentioned in Australian Standards are ISO/TR 7468-1981 (E)
and BS PD 6525: Part 1: 1990. Data from other sources such
as DIN standards and manufacturers specications can be used
where necessary. The NIMS [18] (NRIM) data from Japan is
another very valuable source of creep data and may be more
applicable to the more recent plants built with Japanese steels.
The methodology described in this document has been tested
successfully on some of the NIMS data sheets. The NIMS data
sheets provide additional long-term test data, which are useful in
conrming the validity of creep models. An example of the
ln(sinh(stress)) function applied to the NIMS data for T91 steel is
shown in Fig. 8.
8.3. Changes in creep regime
It has been recognised that the creep regimes in effect during
high-stress accelerated creep rupture testing may be different
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
500
550
600
650
700
Sinh (stress)
Stress (MPa)
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710 M.G. Leinster / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 85 (2008) 701710
from those occurring in normal service. This effect can be seen as
an excess in the stress-to-rupture values from the extrapolation
function compared with the published data. A strong case can be
made for removing some results from high stress/short time
accelerated creep rupture testing when tting an extrapolation
function to the test data. This can be justied on the grounds that
at high stress and short failure times the failure mechanisms are
likely to be different from those operating at low stress and high
failure times.
8.4. Interfacing with published data
The published data include many values that have already
been extrapolated to extended time and stress. Comparison
against the methods reported in this document raises questions
about the validity of the original tabulated extrapolations. It
seems reasonable to base a new extrapolation method on
original data that have not been extrapolated to extended time
or stress. There needs to be industry-wide agreement on where
the interface between published data and extrapolated data
should be.
9. Conclusions
 There is a need for a method to extrapolate creep rupture data
outside the published stress and temperature ranges. Such a
method is most useful if it can be justied based on physical
processes.
 The exponential relationship between stress and time to
rupture has been shown to be a better representation of
published data than the generally accepted power law. This
then leads to a simple relationship between the BS life
parameter and stress.
 Based on fundamental thermodynamic creep rate theory, the
sinh relationship between stress and time to rupture has been
shown to be a better representation of the creep process than
the simple exponential relationship, represents the published
data as well as the exponential relationship at moderate stress,
and produces extreme extrapolation results that behave as
would be expected. The sinh relationship is recommended for
general use.
 The function (ex1)/2 is a close approximation to sinh(x) at
large x, and converges to 0 at x 0. It would also qualify as a
suitable extrapolation function.
 The method highlights possible deciencies in published
data where extrapolations to extended time or stress have
occurred. Eliminating such extended time and stress extra-
polated values gives even better agreement with the suggested
relationships.
Acknowledgements
The assistance of the following people and organisations is
gratefully acknowledged:
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation.
Dr. Michael Drew for provision of reference material, test data,
and review and testing of methodology.
Dr. Warwick Payten for provision of reference material and
review and testing of methodology.
Central Queensland UniversityPELM Centre, Gladstone, QLD,
Australia.
Prof. Richard Clegg for provision of reference material and
editorial assistance.
Connell WagnerSydney, Australia.
Dr. Robert Small for provision of reference material.
HRL TechnologyMelbourne, Australia.
Dr. Russell Coade for provision of reference material and
reviewing and testing of methodology.
Welding Technology Institute of AustraliaSydney, Australia.
Mr. Stan Ambrose for careful review and helpful suggestions
relating to this work.
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