Kyoto Protocol &

Carbon Trading
Its Impact on Global Climate Change
and the Philippines
BY JAN ERL ANGELO B. ROSAL
 ABSTRACT

Life depends on the warmth of the sun being trapped by layers of gases that

surround the Earth. We now produce so much of these heat-trapping gases that the layer is

getting thicker, heating the world, changing the climate and threatening our way of life. As

the world gets hotter, some of the extreme effects we are experiencing now will become

more frequent, making our planet a more hostile place to live. If we won’t act now, it may

be too late.

With the current global climate scenario we are experiencing now,

environmentalists start to give predictions and world leaders are put upon the pressure of

handling the situation. Increased levels of emissions from harmful gases like methane and

carbon dioxide from countries around the world have been pointed out as the main culprit

for the abrupt change in the climate system, and so in 1997, world leaders met at Kyoto,

Japan to formulate a solution to the threatening problem. That gave birth to the Kyoto

Protocol.

This paper has basically five purposes, (1) to understand the Kyoto Protocol,

relating it to the present situation of the global climate, (2) to clarify the methodologies and

policies being implemented under the protocol, (3) what risks did the United States foresee

that made them back out from the ratification of the agreement, and locally (4) the impact

of Kyoto Protocol in the Philippines in general, and (5) its impact on the Filipinos,

especially the small-scale tree farmers. And with the paper would be our answer to the

question, if this Kyoto Protocol would be the Superman of our generation, or would it

worsen the already devastating problem.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Global Climate Change (Review) 4

a. Definition 4

b. Historical Impact of Climate Change 4

c. Evidences of Climate Change 5

d. Some Extreme Effects of Global Warming 7

e. Philippine Climate Change 7

f. Runaway Global Warming: The Future of Climate Change 8

Kyoto Protocol 9
a. Definition 9

b. Beginnings of the Protocol 9

c. Objectives 10

d. Concepts 10

e. Emissions/Carbon Trading 11

i. Definition, Advantages and Disadvantages 11

ii. Participating Countries 14

1. The Issue With USA 14

iii. Clean Development Mechanism 16

1. Definition 16

2. The Philippines in Carbon Trading and CDM 16

Conclusions/Recommendations 20

Bibliography 21

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 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (Review)

DEFINITION

Climate change is any long-term change in the statistics

of weather over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. It can be manifest in
changes to averages, extremes, or other statistical measures, and may occur in a
specific region or for the Earth as a whole.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change

usually refers to changes in modern climate (global warming).

HISTORICAL IMPACTS

a. Role in Human Evolution

Changes in East African climate have been associated with the evolution
of hominids. Researchers have proposed that the regional environment transitioned from
humid jungle to more arid grasslands due to tectonic uplift and changes in broader
patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation. This environmental change is believed to
have forced hominids to evolve for life in a savannah-type environment. Some data suggest
that this environmental change caused the development of modern hominid features;
however there exist other data that show that morphological changes in the earliest
hominids occurred while the region was still forested. Rapid tectonic uplift likely occurred
in the early Pleistocene, changing the local elevation and broadly reorganizing the regional
patterns of atmospheric circulation. This can be correlated with the rapid hominid
evolution of the Quaternary period. Changes in climate at 2.8, 1.7, and 1.0 million years ago
correlate well with observed transitions between recognized hominid species. It is difficult
to differentiate correlation from causality in these paleo-anthropological and paleo-
climatological reconstructions, so these results must be interpreted with caution and
related to the appropriate time-scales and uncertainties.

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 b. Societal Growth and Urbanization
Approximately one millennium after the 7 ka slowing of sea-level
level rise, many coastal
urban centers rose to prominence around the world. It has been hypothesized that this is
correlated with the development of stable coastal environments and ecosystems and an
increase in marine productivity (also related to an increase in temperatures), which would
provide a food source for hierarchical urban societies.

c. Societal Collapse
Climate change has been associated with the historical collapse of civi
civilizations, cities
and dynasties. Notable examples of this include the Anasazi, Classic Maya, the Harappa, the
Hittites and Ancient Egypt.. Other, smal
smaller
communities such as the Viking settlement
of Greenland have also suffered collapse with
climate change being a suggested contributory
factor.

One of two proposed methods of Classic

Maya collapse is the
he environmental approach,
approach
which uses paleo-climatic
limatic evidence to show
that movements in the intertropical
convergence zone likely caused severe,
extended droughts during a few time periods at
Figure 1. MAYA CIVILIZATION. Climate change is the major
factor being considered by historians to cause the collapse the end of the archaeological record for the
of the famous prehistoric civilization.
classic Maya.

EVIDENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

a. Historical and Archaeological Evidence

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in
settlement and agricultural patterns. Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical
documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects have
been linked to the collapse of variou
various civilizations.

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 b. Growth and Shrinkage of Glaciers
Glaciers are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change, advancing when
climate cools and retreating when climate warms. Glaciers grow and shrink; both
contributing to natural variability an
andd amplifying externally forced changes.

c. Sea Level Rise

Rising sea levels would indicate melting ice caps and thus, evidence of a warmer
climate. Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated
using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long
long-term
average.

d. Ice Core Analysis

Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet,
sheet can be
used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped iin
bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere from the distant
past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a
significant indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and continues
nues to provide
valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric
conditions. (see Figure 2)

Figure 2. TRACE BACK THROUGH ICE. GISP2 ice core at 1837 meters depth with clearly visible annual layers.

e. Dendochronology
Dendochronology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine the age of a
tree. From a climate change viewpoint, however, Dendochronology ccan
an also indicate the
climatic conditions for a given number of years. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well
well-
watered growing period, whilst thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less
less-
than-ideal growing conditions.

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SOME EXTREME EFFECTS (Global Warming)

• Sea levels continue to rise as ice caps continue to melt.

• Weather patterns are unpredictable.
• Storms and hurricanes are stronger in nature.
• Supertyphoons and tropical cyclones occur more often each year as compared to
past decades.
• Temperature extremes have inflated, as in the several abnormal cases of heat and
cold waves.
• Mean temperatures have risen, and now pose a threat to life on Earth.
• Wet and dry seasons are fluctuating, as in the occurrence of heavy rainfall even
during summerr months.

PHILIPPINE CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change impacts have been manifested in the Philippines by extreme

weather occurrence such as floods, droughts, forest fires, and an increase in tropical
cyclones. These extreme weather events associated
with climate
limate change, and the disasters these have
wrought, have caused losses amounting to billions
of pesos.

Environmental Impacts
• The average temperature of Metro Manila
has increased by approx. 0.5 °C in just 30 years.
• Several landslides and floods have been
Figure 3. MOTHER NATURE STRIKES BACK. A man reported for this present decade, with alerting
struggles for shelter from a chest-high
high flood during
the ravage of Bagyong Ondoy in the suburbs of numbers of casualties.
Metro Manila.

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Socio-Economic Impacts
• From 1975 to 2002, tropical cyclones have resulted to losses of 4.578 billion pesos
due to damage to property, including damage to agriculture worth 3.047 billion
pesos.
• Drought in Southern Mindanao in 1998, the 2nd hottest year on record, incurred
crop losses amounting to 828 million pesos.
• Damages due to four successive tropical cyclones towards the end of 2004 cost the
nation an estimated 7,615.98 million pesos.

RUNAWAY GLOBAL WARMING

THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Runaway climate change is a
situation in which the climate system
passes a tipping point, after which the
climate continues changing without
further external forcing. The runaway
climate change continues until it is
overpowered by negative feed-
back effects which cause the climate
system to re-stabilize at a new state.

Figure 4. GOING UP. Scientists believe that if we do not act now, the The Earth’s temperature has
temperature will keep rising until it becomes "unstoppable".
already risen by 1°C. If it continues
by up to 2°C, the Earth will start to heat up all by itself, and thus resulting to runaway
global warming. Some scientists speculate that if the current situation of the environment
continues, in a period of 4 to 10 years, we will gain another degree centigrade and reach
this tipping point. So the people need to take action to change the state of nature before
that 4-10 year period. It is said that it would take barely half a century or so before the
climate system would go back to its original state.

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 THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

DEFINITION

The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), an international environmental treaty produced at the
United Nations Conference that intends to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.”

The Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding commitment for the reduction of four
greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride), and two
groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by "Annex I"
(industrialized) nations, as well as general commitments for all member countries. Under
the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions by 5.2% from the level in 1990.

BEGINNINGS OF THE PROTOCOL

The treaty was negotiated in Kyoto,
Japan in December 1997, opened for
signature on 16 March 1998, and closed on 15
March 1999. The agreement came into force
on 16 February 2005 following ratification by
Russia on 18 November 2004.

As of 14 January 2009, a total of 183

countries and 1 regional economic
integration organization (the EC or European
Figure 5. THE START OF SOMETHING NEW. Kyoto Protocol Commission) have ratified the agreement
was born in Kyoto, Japan in December of 1997.
(representing over 63.7% of emissions).

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OBJECTIVES

The objective is the "stabilization and reconstruction of greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system."

The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference was to establish a legally
binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit themselves
to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target agreed
upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels by the year 2012. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted an average global rise in
temperature of 1.4°C (2.5°F) to 5.8°C (10.4°F) between 1990 and 2100.

Kyoto Protocol is a first step as requirements to meet the UNFCCC will be modified
until the objective is met, as required by UNFCCC Article 4.2(d).

CONCEPTS

The five principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:

• commitments to reduce greenhouse gases that are legally binding for Annex I
countries, as well as general commitments for all member countries;
• implementation to meet the Protocol objectives, to prepare policies and measures
which reduce greenhouse gases; increasing absorption of these gases and use all
mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, clean development mechanism
and emissions trading; being rewarded with credits which allow more greenhouse
gas emissions at home;
• minimizing impacts on developing countries by establishing an adaptation fund for
climate change;
• accounting, reporting and review to ensure the integrity of the Protocol;
• compliance by establishing a compliance committee to enforce commitment to the
Protocol.

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EMISSIONS / CARBON TRADING

Emissions trading (or carbon trading) is an administrative approach used to

control pollution by providing economic incentives for achieving reductions in the
emissions of pollutants. It is sometimes called cap and trade. It is under the Kyoto Protocol
of the United Nations.

How the “Trading” Happens

1. A central authority (usually a government or international body) sets a limit
or cap on the amount of a pollutant that can be emitted.
2. Companies or other groups are issued emission permits and are required to hold an
equivalent number of allowances (or credits) which represent the right to emit a
specific amount. The total amount of allowances and credits cannot exceed the cap,
limiting total emissions to that level.
3. Companies that need to increase their emission allowance must buy credits from
those who pollute less. The transfer of allowances is referred to as a trade.
4. In effect, the buyer is paying a charge for polluting, while the seller is being
rewarded for having reduced emissions by more than was needed.

Advantages
The overall goal of an emissions trading plan is to reduce emissions. The cap is
usually lowered over time - aiming towards a national emissions reduction target. In other
systems a portion of all traded credits must be retired, causing a net reduction in emissions
each time a trade occurs. In many cap and trade systems, organizations which do not
pollute may also participate, thus environmental groups can purchase and retire
allowances or credits and hence drive up the price of the remainder according to the law of
demand. Corporations can also prematurely retire allowances by donating them to a
nonprofit entity and then be eligible for a tax deduction.

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 Because emissions trading uses markets to determine how to deal with the
problem of pollution, it is often touted as an example of effective free market
environmentalism. While the cap is usually set by a political process, individual
companies are free to choose how or if they will reduce their emissions. In theory, firms
will choose the least-costly way to comply with the pollution regulation, creating incentives
that reduce the cost of achieving a pollution reduction goal.

According to environmentalists, market based mechanisms are a legal compliance

tool, designed to achieve an outcome in the most efficient manner. With trading, you must
reduce emissions and you must pay the cost to do so.

The biggest advantage for them is that emissions trading makes reducing emissions
cheaper, and by doing so it makes the willingness to act stronger.

Disadvantages
Fundamentally, pollution trading is wrong. It treats clean air and public health
as a private commodity to be traded, speculated against, and profited from. What once was
a wrong—i.e., polluting—is now a "right". Instead of people having the right to breathe
free, businesses have the right to pollute and make money while doing so.

Carbon Trading has not achieved CO2 emissions reductions. Most countries
participating in the Kyoto Protocol are failing to meet their target greenhouse gas
emissions reductions. Canada has consistently failed to meet its Kyoto targets and
currently exceeds greenhouse gas emission targets by about 25%. The European
Commission reported that emissions from the major industrial users throughout the
European Union actually rose by 1% to 1.5% in 2006. (see Figure 6)

Carbon trading is difficult to monitor. It invites accounting fraud in a market

where both the seller and the buyer have a shared interest in low quality products. A 2007
Financial Times investigation uncovered widespread failings in markets for greenhouse
gases, suggesting some organizations are paying for emissions reductions that do not take
place.

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 Figure 6. PROMISES. The "First 36" countries who ratified the Kyoto Protocol and how they are doing.

Polluting fossil-fuel plant would continue to operate. A cap and trade system
would allow heavy polluters to buy credits from less polluting facilities. There would be no
incentive to close or clean up the heaviest polluting power or industrial plants in
communities where health already is compromised by their presence. Such plants are often
located in low-income communities and communities of color, who experience
disproportionate effects from power plant pollution that causes heart disease, asthma and
pre-mature death.

Time is of the essence. The climate crisis is urgent. We do not have the luxury of
waiting while the myriad details of a cap-and-trade system are resolved through lengthy
negotiations.

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Participating Countries

Figure 7. HAND-IN-HAND. Participating countries are in green, neutral states in gray, and countries that did not accept in red.

As of February 2009, 183 states and 1 union (European Union) have signed and
ratified the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, making it 184.

With Russia's ratification the "55 percent of 1990 carbon dioxide emissions of the
Parties included in Annex I" clause was satisfied and the treaty brought into force, effective
16 February 2005.

The Issue With USA

The United States of America, although a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, has
neither ratified nor withdrawn from the Protocol. The signature alone is merely symbolic,
as the Kyoto Protocol is non-binding on the United States unless ratified. (see Figure 7) The
United States was, as of at least 2005, the largest per capita emitter of carbon dioxide from
the burning of fossil fuels.

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 On 25 July 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was finalized (although it had been fully
negotiated, and a draft was finished), the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95–0 vote
the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98), which stated the sense of the Senate was that the
United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets
and timetables for developing nations as well as industrialized nations or "would result in
serious harm to the economy of the United States".

On 12 November 1998, Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the protocol.

Both Gore and Senator Joseph Lieberman indicated that the protocol would not be acted
upon in the Senate until there was participation by the developing nations. The Clinton
Administration never submitted the protocol to the Senate for ratification.

President George W. Bush, in his administration, did not submit the treaty for Senate
ratification based on the exemption granted to China (now the world's largest gross
emitter of carbon dioxide, although emission is low per capita). Bush opposed the treaty
because of the strain he believed the treaty would put on the economy; he emphasized the
uncertainties which he believed were present in the scientific evidence. Furthermore, the
U.S. was concerned with broader exemptions of the treaty. For example, the U.S. did not
support the split between Annex I countries and others. Bush said of the treaty:

“This is a challenge that requires a 100% effort; ours, and the rest of the world's. The world's
second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is the People's Republic of China. Yet, China was
entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. India and Germany are among
the top emitters. Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto ... America's unwillingness to embrace a
flawed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies as any abdication of responsibility. To
the contrary, my administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate
change ... Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of stabilizing greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere.”

President Barack Obama has, as yet, taken no action with the senate that would change
the position of the United States towards this protocol. When Obama was in Turkey in April
2009, he said that "it doesn't make sense for the United States to sign the Kyoto Protocol
because it is about to end". At this time, two years and eleven months remained from the
four-year commitment period.

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 CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), still under carbon trading and tthe
Kyoto, is a mechanism that gives incentives to any party for helping in the environment’s
recovery.

For example, people who grow forests or reforest damaged areas are also given
carbon credits. These carbon credits can also be sold to those countries tthat
hat have excess
carbon emissions. The mechanics are still the same; only for that carbon trading deals with
money while CDM is investing on projects that could help nature recover.

Some CDM Projects that could avail carbon credits include:

• Afforestation – conversion of raw land into forests

• Reforestation – restoring of denuded/destructed forests
• Biodiesel – usage of fuel extracted from plants (ex. Ethanol)

PHILIPPINES IN CARBON TRADING AND CDM

Currently, the Philippines is implementing

three World Bank supported greenhouse gas
(GHG) emission reduction projects, the watershed
rehabilitation project of Laguna Lake focusing on
reforestation and agroforestry,, the Laguna de
Bay watershed project focusing on methane
emission reduction from waste management
projects,, and the North Wind Bangui Bay project
in the northern tip of Luzon focusing on carbon–
free energy generation.
Figure 8. REGRETS, REGRETS. Residents near Laguna
Lake take hand-in-hand the challenge of reforesting the
denuded forest surrounding the perimeter of the lake.

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 Among the CDM projects and carbon trading, Afforestation/Reforestation is the
most profitable for the Philippines. Even small-scale tree farmers can earn from carbon
trading through CDM. These tree farmers can earn their living from planting trees for
carbon credits. Thus, participating in CDM might help alleviate poverty, and at the same
time, help the country’s resources in its pursuit for recovery.

Challenges Met in Carbon Trading and CDM

1. Complicated transactions and the need for intermediary body
Like in the Philippines, many people in Southeast Asian countries expect substantial
financial returns from carbon after a multi-year investment in planting trees. But
generating funds from forestry carbon projects through the Afforestation/Reforestation
Clean Development Mechanism (AR-CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol is an enormous task.
In most cases, smallholders alone cannot solely accomplish the required documents. In
Vietnam, SNV (Netherlands Development Organization) as an intermediary organization is
helping farmers obtain benefits from forestry carbon through the AR-CDM. The presence of
an intermediary agency officially designated by the government to support smallholders is
crucial. In the Philippines, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)
could serve such a role since it has regional offices throughout the country that could assist
smallholders to benefit from emerging carbon trading.

2. Small landholdings, land tenure and land ownership

Aggregating environmental services, particularly carbon, into saleable form from
small-scale farms is beset by the issue of land ownership. While it is relatively easy to
process documents from a single, big land owner, it requires more effort to integrate varied
aspirations and demands from the fragmented small-scale tree farm owners. This would
likely discourage carbon buyers from negotiating with the small land holders unless a
unified and smooth agreement can be achieved. Besides, many small-scale farmers may not
actually own the land they are currently cultivating. The original owners would still dictate
the land use, which might prevent the tenant’s participation in any carbon trading scheme.

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3. Price stability and profitability of carbon
Carbon as a commodity will be in the form of carbon emission reduction certificates
that will be traded between the buying and selling parties. The price will be determined
through the interaction of the parties involved. For the sellers, the main consideration will
be how much it would cost them to establish and maintain the carbon offset project, as well
as the foregone values or opportunity costs. The buyers, on the other hand, would be
interested to buy the carbon credits only if these are cheaper than the cost of reducing
emissions at source.

4. Natural calamities
The implementation of a clear and transparent carbon trading scheme in the
Philippines is made more complicated by the frequent calamities (particularly typhoons)
that have cost the country so much. Millions of dollars in damages to roads, bridges, and
public buildings are incurred annually. Due to the prevalence of destructive typhoons, the
Philippines National Disaster Coordinating Council must come up with a scheme to insure
smallholder tree farms.

5. Absence of clear trading schemes

A clear and transparent carbon trading scheme specifying the quantification
method, price per ton of carbon, payment scheme and harvesting modalities is necessary to
attract the smallholders. If established, there would be greater flexibility on the part of
smallholders to work towards AR-CDM projects or participate in carbon trading schemes.
Profitable carbon trading could also result in increased supply of timber for the wood
industry as there would be more people engaged in tree farming. Questions regarding
carbon price, payment scheme, future utilization of mature trees, the need for designated
regional markets where the harvested timber (that passed through carbon trading) could
be sold still need to be resolved.

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6. Long-term security and stakeholder participation
Many smallholders are rightly skeptical of poverty alleviation schemes promoted by
the government. In the past, the Philippine government implemented several forestry
initiatives geared toward eradicating poverty in the rural communities but their success
has been marginal. Only when smallholders find that carbon trading truly provides long-
term benefits to them will their participation in such schemes be assured.

7. Insufficient information dissemination

The Philippines is taking a major and innovative step into a new renewable energy
era with the signing of the first GHG reduction purchase agreement (RPA) for a wind farm
project in the ASEAN Region, under the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol . The watershed
rehabilitation project of Laguna de Bay is also a major and ground-breaking development
in carbon trading in the Philippines with potential benefits for smallholders. However,
information on these developments has not reached the majority of smallholders. There is
still a need to disseminate such information so that necessary steps can be taken by the
various stakeholders (including smallholders in the Visayas and Mindanao Islands) to
obtain benefits from carbon trading under these and other projects.

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 CONCLUSIONS / RECOMMENDATIONS

Carbon trading is a potential means by which smallholders could enhance their

revenue from small-scale tree farming and agroforestry. This could be a resort to all those
farmers who have deprived of a real “agrarian reform” from the government.

This new method of solving the problem of the world’s climate system is a very
“innovative” yet laborious one. Who’d ever think of trading emissions? And when did one
get paid for planting trees and reforesting denuded areas? For the country, this would be
very beneficial since we are at the peak of the era of depletion wherein we are on the verge
of stepping beyond the maximum sustainable yield of our resources. Not to mention that
we have been described as one of the N-11 (Next Eleven) economies, our nation is indeed
staging a metamorphosis from a developing nation to an industrialized one in the future.
This means there would be more factories, more plants, more technology, and more
emissions in the future. And when is the better time to prepare than now? With our
participation in this Kyoto Protocol, we are hand-in-hand with those other nations who are
aiming for what they call a “green collar economy”, and with a green collar economy comes
the balance between income and environment.

Back to carbon trading for the Filipinos, it may play an important role in the future
since it has the potential of fulfilling the woes and lamentations of those humble farmers
who need their equal share of recognition. “Economic incentives for being environment-
friendly” – isn’t that nice to hear? Filipinos can earn a living from saving the planet. If only
the challenges mentioned above can be resolved, thereby providing a clear and transparent
trading mechanism for carbon, smallholders engaged in tree farming are expected to
benefit.

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