MODELOS MATEMATICOS

Ao Demanda
1 4.8
2 5.6
3 6.5
4 7.3 M. LINEAL
5 8.1 M. LOGARITMICO
6 8.5 M.SEMILOGARITMICO
7 9.1
8 9.8
9 10.4
10 11.9

1.- MODELO MATEMATICO LINEAL

DEMANDA HISTORICA
Ao Demanda
X Y X2 Y2 XY
1 4.80 1.00 23.04 4.80
2 5.60 4.00 31.36 11.20
3 6.50 9.00 42.25 19.50
4 7.30 16.00 53.29 29.20
5 8.10 25.00 65.61 40.50
6 8.50 36.00 72.25 51.00
7 9.10 49.00 82.81 63.70
8 9.80 64.00 96.04 78.40
9 10.40 81.00 108.16 93.60
10 11.90 100.00 141.61 119.00
Sumatoria 55 82.00 385.00 716.42 510.90
n: 10
Promedio: 5.5 8.20 38.50 71.64 51.09

Modelo lineal
14.0

12.0

10.0
Poblacin

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Ao
 2.0

0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Ao

FORMULA: Y=a+Bx
n: 2
b: 0.72606
a: 4.20667
g: 0.99397
F: 657.74702

C=a+b(t)

DEMANDA PROYECTADA
Ao Demanda
X Y X2 Y2 XY
11 12.19 121.00 148.68 134.13
12 12.92 144.00 166.91 155.03
13 13.65 169.00 186.20 177.39
14 14.37 196.00 206.54 201.20
15 15.10 225.00 227.94 226.46
16 15.82 256.00 250.39 253.18
17 16.55 289.00 273.89 281.34
18 17.28 324.00 298.45 310.96
19 18.00 361.00 324.07 342.03
20 18.73 400.00 350.73 374.56
Sumatoria 155 154.61 2485.00 2433.79 2456.29
n: 10
Promedio: 15.50 15.46 248.50 243.38 245.63

Metodo Lineal
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
Poblacin

10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Ao
 MODELOS MATEMATICOS

Ao Demanda
1 4.8
2 5.6
3 6.5
4 7.3 M. LINEAL
5 8.1 M.SEMILOGARITMICO
6 8.5 M. LOGARITMICO
7 9.1
8 9.8
9 10.4
10 11.9

2.- MODELO MATEMATICO SEMILOGARITMICO

DEMANDA HISTORICA
Ao Demanda
X Y X2 Log Y X Log Y Log Y2
1 4.80 1.00 0.6812 0.6812 0.4641
2 5.60 4.00 0.7482 1.4964 0.5598
3 6.50 9.00 0.8129 2.4387 0.6608
4 7.30 16.00 0.8633 3.4533 0.7453
5 8.10 25.00 0.9085 4.5424 0.8253
6 8.50 36.00 0.9294 5.5765 0.8638
7 9.10 49.00 0.9590 6.7133 0.9198
8 9.80 64.00 0.9912 7.9298 0.9825
9 10.40 81.00 1.0170 9.1533 1.0344
10 11.90 100.00 1.0755 10.7555 1.1568
Sumatoria 55 82.00 385.00 8.9864 52.7405 8.2126
n: 10
Promedio: 5.5 8.20 38.50 0.90 5.27 0.82

Modelo semilogartmico
14.0
12.0
10.0
Poblacin

8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Ao
 4.0
2.0
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Ao

FORMULA: Y=a*Xb
b': 0.04018
a': 0.67763
a: 4.76026
b: 1.09694

DEMANDA PROYECTADA
Ao Demanda
X Y X2 Log Y X Log Y Log Y2
11 66.07 121.00 1.8200 20.0198 3.3123
12 72.68 144.00 1.8614 22.3372 3.4649
13 79.35 169.00 1.8996 24.6943 3.6083
14 86.07 196.00 1.9349 27.0881 3.7437
15 92.84 225.00 1.9677 29.5160 3.8720
16 99.65 256.00 1.9985 31.9757 3.9939
17 106.50 289.00 2.0274 34.4652 4.1102
18 113.39 324.00 2.0546 36.9827 4.2214
19 120.32 361.00 2.0803 39.5266 4.3279
20 127.29 400.00 2.1048 42.0957 4.4301
Sumatoria 155 964.17 2485.00 19.7491 308.7013 39.0847
n: 10
Promedio: 15.5 96.42 248.50 1.97 30.87 3.91

Metodo Semilogartmico
140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0
Poblacin

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Ao
20.0

0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Ao