5G MARKET STRATEGIES

4G LTE Evolution Spectrum Analysis Opportunities 2015-2025

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 1. Market Trends & Competitive
Landscape Table of Contents

5G STRATEGIES
Emerging Ecosystems, Opportunities & Forecasts 2014-2019
5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Trends & Competitive Landscape 2015-2025
Contents
1. LTE Evolution & Road to 5G
1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................6
Figure 1.1: Cellular Network Evolution Snapshot .................................................. 6
1.2 Defining 4G .......................................................................................7
1.2.1 LTE & LTE-A ..................................................................................7
1.2.2 Evolution towards LTE-U & LAA .................................................8
Figure 1.2: LTE-U Commercialisation ................................................................... 9
i. LTE-U Deployments .......................................................................................... 9
ii. Case Study: LTE-U Forum ................................................................................ 9
1.3 4G LTE Market Status ....................................................................10
Figure 1.3: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches 2009-2015e ............ 10
1.3.1 LTE-M ...........................................................................................11
1.4 4G LTE-A Market Update ...............................................................11
Figure 1.4: Number of Commercial LTE-A Network Launches 2014-2016e ........ 12
1.5 LTE-U Market Update.....................................................................12
i. LTE-U Future & Challenges ............................................................................. 12
2. Defining the 5G Wireless Ecosystem
2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................15
2.1.1 Definition What is 5G?.............................................................15
Figure 2.1: Timeline & Process for 5G IMT-2020 ................................................ 15
2.1.2 ITU Plan, Timeline & Deliverables for 5G..................................16
2.2 5G Technology Requirements ......................................................17
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Figure 2.2: 5G Requirements A Snapshot ....................................................... 17
2.2.1 The 5G Standard Key Requisites ........................................... 17
Figure 2.3: Key 5G Performance Requirements ................................................. 18
2.2.2 5G Spectrum Requirements ...................................................... 19
Figure 2.4: Radio Frequency Bands Snapshot ................................................... 20
i. Available 4G Spectrum and Possible 5G Spectrum Analysis ........................... 20
Figure 2.5: 4G Spectrum Bands Used by Commercially Launched Networks,
2014 .................................................................................................................. 20
Figure 2.6: Possible 5G Spectrum Frequency Bands ......................................... 21
Figure 2.7: Preliminary Bands Identified by Ofcom ............................................. 22
iii. High Frequency Spectrum Band Challenges ................................................. 23
Figure 2.8: mmWave Frequency Band Challenges Intel .................................. 23
vi. Spectrum Refarming...................................................................................... 24
vii. Spectrum Sharing ......................................................................................... 24
2.2.3 High Frequency Band 5G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis .. 25
i. 4G Spectrum Cost Analysis............................................................................. 25
Figure 2.9: 4G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis Selected Markets .................. 26
ii. 5G Spectrum Cost Analysis ............................................................................ 26
Figure & Table 2.10: Spectrum Cost Estimate & Comparison 4G vs 5G .......... 26
Figure 2.11: 5G Cumulative Operator Billed Revenue per Annum ($m) vs
Combined Spectrum Cost ($m) Comparison US, West Europe, & South
Korea) ................................................................................................................ 27
2.2.4 5G Technology Requirements ................................................... 28
ii. Case Study: METIS ........................................................................................ 29
iv. Case Study: NTT DOCOMO Phantom Cell.................................................... 30
Figure 2.12: NTT DOCOMO 5G Vision .............................................................. 31
5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Trends & Competitive Landscape 2015-2025
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2.3 5G Business Models ......................................................................32 iii. Huawei .......................................................................................................... 45

2.3.1 5G & the Rise of the Internet of Things ....................................32 iv. Ericsson ........................................................................................................ 45

Figure 2.13: Juniper Strategy Quadrant: 5G & the Internet of Things .................. 33 3.1.4 Academic Institutions ................................................................ 45
2.3.2 Monetising 5G: ARPU vs ARPC .................................................34 i. New York University Wireless ......................................................................... 45

ii. Case Study: 5G Innovation Centre ................................................................. 46

2.3.3 5G to Replace DSL, Cable and Fibre?.......................................35
iii. TU Dresden University, 5G Lab Germany ...................................................... 48
2.4 5G Research & Development Investments 2015-2020................37
3.2 Market Drivers ................................................................................ 48
Figure 2.14: Total 5G Research & Development Investments ($m), 2015 &
2020 ................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 3.1: 5G - Cycle of Demand ...................................................................... 49

Figure 3.2: Mobile Data Growth Drivers (Y-o-Y % Growth) 2013-2014 ............... 50
3. Market Dynamics: Drivers, Hurdles & Current
Figure 3.3: Data Growth Factors ........................................................................ 51
Activities
Figure 3.4: Number of Connected IoT Devices Installed Base (m) 2015-2020 .... 53
3.1 Current Market Status ...................................................................41
3.3 Market Constraints ........................................................................ 54
3.1.1 Regulators & Standards Bodies ................................................41
Figure 3.5: 5G Technology Drivers Snapshot ..................................................... 56
i. ITU (International Telecommunications Union) ................................................ 41
Figure 3.6: Global MNO Service Revenues vs Capex/Opex ($bn) 2013-2019 .... 58
ii. Ofcom ............................................................................................................. 41
3.3.7 Market Drivers, Trends & Constraints Summary..................... 61
iii. FCC (Federal Communications Commission) ................................................. 41
Figure 3.7: 5G Market Trends, Drivers & Constraints Summary ......................... 61
iv. Case Study: GSMA (Groupe Speciale Mobile Association) ............................ 42

3.1.2 Mobile Operators & Service Providers .....................................43 4. Competitive Landscape & Vendor Analysis
i. NTT DOCOMO ................................................................................................ 43
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 63
ii. SK Telecom .................................................................................................... 43
4.2 Vendor Analysis ............................................................................ 63
iii. Case Study: EE .............................................................................................. 43
4.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria ..................................................... 63
iv. Vodafone ....................................................................................................... 44
Table 4.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors ............................................. 64
v. du ................................................................................................................... 44
4.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation ................................................... 65
3.1.3 Vendors........................................................................................44
i. Samsung ......................................................................................................... 44
4.3 Vendor Positioning Matrix Results .............................................. 65

ii. Nokia Networks ............................................................................................... 44 4.3.1 Overall Matrix Position ............................................................... 65

5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Trends & Competitive Landscape 2015-2025
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Figure 4.2: 4G & 5G Market Vendor Positioning Matrix ....................................... 66 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 76

Figure 4.3: 4G & 5G Vendor Positioning Matrix Scoring...................................... 67 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 76

4.3.2 Vendor Groupings ......................................................................68 iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning ...................................................... 76
i. Summary ......................................................................................................... 68 v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 77
ii. On Track Vendors ........................................................................................... 68 4.5.4 CBNL ............................................................................................ 77
iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations ................................................................... 69 i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 77

iv. Vendors with Further Potential ....................................................................... 69 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 77

4.4 5G Industry Movers & Shakers .....................................................70 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners .................................................................... 77

4.5 Player Profiles ................................................................................72 iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ..................................................... 78

v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 78

4.5.1 Airvana .........................................................................................72
i. Company Profile .............................................................................................. 72 4.5.5 Ericsson ...................................................................................... 78
ii. Geographic Spread ......................................................................................... 72 i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 78

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships .............................................................. 72 Figure 4.7: Ericsson Financial Year Snapshot (SEK bn) 2013-2014 ................... 79

iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning ....................................................... 72 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 79

Figure 4.4: Airvanas Femtocell AP ..................................................................... 73 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 79

v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 73 Figure 4.8: Ericsson Regional Financial Performance (%) 2014 ...................... 79

iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ..................................................... 80

4.5.2 Alcatel-Lucent .............................................................................73
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 73 Figure 4.9: Ericsson 3xMulti Radio Network Solution ......................................... 80

Figure 4.5: Alcatel-Lucent Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014 ............. 74 v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 81

ii. Geographic Spread ......................................................................................... 74 4.5.6 Fujitsu .......................................................................................... 81

iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships .............................................................. 74 i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 81

iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning ....................................................... 74 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 81

v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 75 Figure 4.10: Fujitsu Financial Performance 2012-2014 - Snapshot .................... 82

Figure 4.6: Alcatel-Lucent 4G-5G Vision ............................................................. 75 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 82

iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ..................................................... 82

4.5.3 Anite Telecoms ...........................................................................75
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 75 v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 82
5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Trends & Competitive Landscape 2015-2025
4.5.7 Huawei .........................................................................................83
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 83
Figure 4.11: Huawei Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014 ...................... 83
ii. Geographical Spread ...................................................................................... 83
Figure 4.12: Huawei Geographical Revenue Split (%) 2014............................. 83
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships .............................................................. 83
iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ...................................................... 84
v. Junipers View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities ........... 84
4.5.8 NEC ..............................................................................................85
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 85
Figure 4.13: NEC Financial Snapshot 2013-2014 ............................................... 85
ii. Geographical Spread ...................................................................................... 85
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships .............................................................. 85
iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ...................................................... 85
Figure 4.14: NEC LTE Small Cell Product Portfolio............................................. 86
v. Junipers View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities ........... 86
4.5.9 Nokia Networks ...........................................................................86
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 86
Figure 4.15: Nokia Networks Financial Performance Snapshot 2013-2014 ......... 87
ii. Geographical Spread ...................................................................................... 87
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners .................................................................... 87
Figure 4.16: Nokia Networks Net Sales by Region 2014 .................................. 87
iv. Products & Services ....................................................................................... 88
v. Junipers View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities ................................ 89
4.5.10 Qualcomm .................................................................................89
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 89
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ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 89
Figure 4.17: Qualcomm Sales Revenue ($m) 2012-2014 ................................... 90
iii. Key Clients & Partnerships ............................................................................ 90
iv. Products & Strategies .................................................................................... 90
Figure 4.18: Qualcomm LTE FDD/TDD Chipsets ............................................... 91
v. Junipers View: Key Strength & Strategic Development Opportunities ............ 91
4.5.11 Samsung Networks .................................................................. 92
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 92
Figure 4.19: Samsung Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014 .................. 92
ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 92
iii. Key Clients & Partnerships ............................................................................ 92
iv. Products & Strategies Market Positioning ................................................... 92
v. Junipers View: Key Strength & Strategic Development Opportunities ............ 93
4.5.12 ZTE ............................................................................................. 94
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 94
ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 94
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 94
iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ..................................................... 94
Figure 4.20: Proposed Evolution to 5G ZTE .................................................... 95
v. Junipers View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities ................................ 95
 2. Market Sizing & Forecasts
Table of Contents

5G STRATEGIES
Emerging Ecosystems, Opportunities & Forecasts 2014-2019
5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Sizing & Forecasts 2015-2025
Contents
1. LTE Evolution & Road to 5G
1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................4
Figure 1.1: Cellular Network Evolution Snapshot .................................................. 4
1.2 Defining 4G .......................................................................................5
1.2.1 LTE & LTE-A ..................................................................................5
1.2.2 Evolution towards LTE-U .............................................................6
Figure 1.2: LTE-U Commercialisation ................................................................... 7
i. LTE-U Deployments .......................................................................................... 7
1.2.3 Introduction ...................................................................................7
Figure 1.3: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches 2009-2015e .............. 8
1.3 4G LTE-A Market Update .................................................................8
1.3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................8
Figure 1.4: Number of Commercial LTE-A Network Launches 2014-2016e .......... 9
1.4 LTE-U Market Update.......................................................................9
1.4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................9
1.4.2 Definition What is 5G?.............................................................11
Figure 1.5: Timeline & Process for 5G IMT-2020 ................................................ 11
1.4.3 ITU Plan, Timeline & Deliverables for 5G..................................12
2. 4G & 5G Market Sizing Methodology &
Assumptions
2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................14
2.2 Methodology and Assumptions ...................................................14
1
Figure 2.1: 4G & 5G Market Forecast Methodology Overview ............................ 16
3. 5G Market Forecasts & Takeaways
3.1 Cellular Market Growth 2020-2025 ............................................... 18
Figure 3.1: Mobile Active SIM Connection Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2020-
2025 .................................................................................................................. 18
3.2 5G Connection Forecasts ............................................................. 19
3.2.1 5G Adoption Forecasts .............................................................. 19
Figure 3.2: Active 5G Connections as a Proportion of Active SIM Connections (%)
Split by 8 Key Regions 2020-2025 ..................................................................... 19
3.2.2 5G Active Connections .............................................................. 20
Figure 3.3: Number of Active 5G Mobile Connections (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
2020-2025 ......................................................................................................... 20
3.2.3 Regional 5G Adoption Analysis ................................................ 21
i. North America ................................................................................................. 21
ii. Europe ........................................................................................................... 21
iii. Far East & China ........................................................................................... 21
3.2.4 5G Enterprise & Consumer Connections ................................. 22
Figure 3.4: Global 5G Enterprise and Consumer Connections (m) 2014-2019 ... 22
3.3 5G ARPC & Service Revenue ....................................................... 23
3.3.1 5G Blended ARPC ...................................................................... 23
Figure 3.5: Blended Enterprise & Consumer 5G ARPC Forecast ($) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2020-2025............................................................................................ 23
3.3.2 5G Service Revenue ................................................................... 24
Figure 3.6: 5G Service Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-
2020 .................................................................................................................. 24
5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Sizing & Forecasts 2015-2025
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4. 4G Market Forecasts & Key Takeaways

4.1 Cellular Market Growth 2015-2020 ...............................................26
Figure 4.1: Mobile Active SIM Connection Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-
2020 ................................................................................................................... 26

4.2 4G LTE Connection Forecasts......................................................27

Figure 4.2: Number of 4G LTE Connections (m) Split by 8 Key Regions ............. 27

4.2.1 Enterprise & Consumer Connections .......................................28

Figure 4.3: Global 4G LTE Enterprise and Consumer Connections (m) 2015-
2020 ................................................................................................................... 28

4.2.2 TD-LTE & FDD-LTE Market Forecasts .......................................29

Figure 4.4: Number of 4G LTE Connections (m) Split by TD-LTE & FD-LTE 2015-
2020 ................................................................................................................... 29

4.3 4G LTE ARPU & Service Revenue Forecasts ..............................30

4.3.1 4G LTE Blended ARPU ...............................................................30
Figure 4.5: Blended Enterprise & Consumer LTE ARPU Forecast ($) Split by 8
Key Regions 2015-2020 ..................................................................................... 30

4.3.2 4G LTE Service Revenue............................................................31

Figure 4.6: 4G LTE Service Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-
2020 ................................................................................................................... 31

4.4 4G LTE Device & Infrastructure Forecasts ..................................32

4.4.1 4G LTE Smartphones .................................................................32
Figure 4.7: 4G LTE Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2015-
2020 ................................................................................................................... 32

4.4.2 4G LTE Base Station Forecasts.................................................33

Figure 4.8: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000) Split by Macro
& Compact BTS.................................................................................................. 33