Erin Abney

POLS 5010
Week 7 Assignment

Question 13A:

A great many studies in most areas of applied social or policy research are based on regression
analysis of observational studies. Look up three published studies in a field or area of interest. Are
they observational studies or experimental studies? If observational, do they use some form of
regression analysis to estimate causal effects? What are the main independent variables (in the causal
sense)? What are the control variables?

Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide? Don B. Kates and Gary Mauser (Harvard
Journal)
Analysis of states gun control restrictions - Xiaofeng Cheng (Scholar Commons)
Investigating the Link between Gun Possession and Gun Assault- Charles B. Branas (American Public
Health)
Between these three studies (all observational) the main focus was to understand the connection
between (murder rates/level of crime/gun assault) and the availability of guns and gun restrictions. The
three studies has similar independent variables which included: average per capita income, median
school year completed by adults, males per 100 females, police employees per 1000 residents,
proportion black, and population density. Dependent Variables included: homicides, suicides, robberies,
and assaults. Controlled variables were consistent among the studies as well, density per square mile,
urban population high school graduates, percentage of below poverty line, unemployment percent, the
ratio of black to white. Each of these studies could be described as multiple regression studies with
multiple controlled variables. Our text explains that, Multiple regression can incorporate many control
variables at the same time. In effect, the impact of one independent variable is measured, holding all
control variables constant (Remler, Ryzin 404).

Question 13B:
1) Interpret in words the coefficient of the Female variable. Is it statistically significant? Is it
practically significant?
Dummy Variable Female=1; Male is the reference category (Female=0); Starting Salary in dollars. Since
the dummy variable is female the coefficient is interpreted as females making $1,672.307 less than men.
The Mean starting salary is $6,806
Right off the bat we can see that the coefficient for the Female is -1,672,307 and the p-value is .000
which indicated we can reject the null because with the p value being .000 this indicated that the study
is very unlikely. But the test statistic is indicated as -7.324 which
Statistically significant the extent to which a difference or a relationship exists, judged against the
likelihood that it would happen just by chance.
Practically Significant the extent to which a measure predicts logically related outcomes or behaviors.
2) Imagine you wanted to evaluate whether gender discrimination was occurring at this business
at the same time. Describe another control variable you would want, briefly justifying your choice and
the problems from omitting it.
Important control variables in understanding gender discrimination would be years of experience. In
order to truly understand gender discrimination in the work place we must know the years of experience
for every employee. How are we to understand if one gender is being favored over another if we do not
have sound evidence to back the theory? By omitting this information the results will be bias because
the researchers were unable to control them.

Question 13C:
Your first analysis is a regression with Price as the dependent variable and Outdoor as the only
independent variable.
a. What is the regression equation, including the coefficients from your regression analysis and
their units?
Price= 691,851.9 + (b1 x outdoor)
b. Using just this output, what is your estimate (so far) of the effect of outdoor space on the
listing price of an apartment?
When outdoor goes up by 1 an increase in 597,148.1 will occur.
c. Are there any potential sources of bias? Predict the direction of bias.
d. For your next analysis, you run a regression with Price as the dependent variable and Outdoor
and SqFt as the independent variables. Using the results below, what is the new regression equation,
including the coefficients from the regression analysis and units?
Price= 28,078.5 + (b1 x outdoors) + (b2 x sqft).
e. Based on just the analysis so far, what is the estimated effect of outdoor space on the listing
price of an apartment?
When the price increases by 1 the outdoor variable will increase by 237,493.8
f. Why is it different than in the earlier regression?
Weve included another dependent variable into the equation.
g. Are there any other potential sources of bias? If so, how would you control for them ideally?
How would you control for them with the data available?
h. How do you interpret the coefficient for SqFt?
When the price increases by 1 the Sqft will increase by 951.7 Ft.
i. How would having more than 32 observations change your results?
By including 32 more observations into the mix will alter the constant therefore producing different
results.

Question 14A:
1) A law center selects 900 civil court records at random from the archive to investigate the effect
of having, versus not having, legal representation (a lawyer) on the outcome of the case.
Random sampling
2) A clinic recruits drug users and divides them, randomly, into two groups to test the
effectiveness of a new prevention therapy.
Random Assignment
3) A government statistical agency takes a probability sample of the nations public school
students and then randomly administers two different versions of a reading test to compare their
difficulty.
Both

Question 14B:
1) The p value associated with a test of the difference between the programs was less than .001.
What is the statistical significance of these results?
The Statistical significance of these results are 55% of individuals who received outpatient long-term care
remained sober for 5 years , compared to only 35% of individuals who received inpatient short-term care
remained sober for 5 years. Outpatient long-term care helped individuals remain sober for 5 years better
than inpatient short-term care. X caused Y.
2) What is the practical significance of these results?
This field experiment has strong practical significance in the real world. Understanding if inpatient vs
outpatient treatment plans are beneficial to long-term sobriety is a key tool for individuals with a alcohol
addiction.
3) The study was performed according to standard ethical principles of informed consent:
Subjects were fully informed about what the study would entail and voluntarily chose to
participate. What kinds of alcoholics would agree to participate in the experiment? What kinds
would not?
The type of alcoholics willing to participate in the experiment are ones that are already trying to quit
drinking and gain their sobriety. Ones that understand that they have a problem. The ones not interested
are the ones that are not ready to turn their life around, ones in denial that they have a problem there
for are not willing to be involved in a study on alcoholics.
4) Someone reading this impressive study concludes that long-term sobriety rates of all
alcoholics would be 20 percentage points higher if all alcoholics received long-term outpatient
treatment than if all alcoholics received short-term inpatient treatment. Do you think this conclusion
is valid? Explain.
I believe that this conclusion is valid because the logic makes since. Individuals who seek treatment are
obviously going to better when they are taken out of their normal routine and only for a short time
period. They always go back to the same routine and challenging temptations when they get home. To
have a treatment plan at home for long-term is more beneficial.
5) The study as described does not shed light on why the outpatient program had better results
the mechanism. Describe how the use of one qualitative method (e.g., open-ended interviews,
structured interviews, focus groups, observation) during the experiment could have shed light on this
issue. Briefly describe which method you think would have been best and why.
The method that would have been best is open-ended interview. This allows the researches to
understand the alcoholic point of view by allowing them to fully understand their mind frame. Open-
ended question allows the interviewee to express themselves as they please and let the interviewer into
their thought process without restricting the interviewee. There is only so much one can observe but
unless you have a one-on-one conversation with these individuals you will not understand them
completely. Alcoholism is a complicated addiction which cannot be understood through only
observations. Structured interviews do not allow free expression, and focus groups are not practical for
alcoholics who may not be ready to share with a large group of individuals.

Question 14C:
1) Does exercising make people happier?
For this research experiment a field study will be conducted following college students since stress levels
are regularly high for this age gap. I would ask 100 students from a college or university to participate
within the study. Students will keep track of how often and for how long they work out or participate and
thing with physical activity will also keeping track of their stress levels and overall mental state each day.
The experiment will be conducted over a 2 week period. This experiment will be described as a within-
subject design because we are monitoring the change within a persons emotion well-being as it relates
to exercise. Professors in phycology have been known to offer bonus or make it apart of their curriculum
to participate in research experiments, so getting college students to participate will not be difficult.
2) Does knowing that a political candidate is gay make people less likely to vote for him?
Field Experiment as explained in the book is, they take place in the real social world, not in some
artificial laboratory or simulator (Ryzin Remler 437). In order to understand the voting pattern of an
individual one must test it out through real world situations. If you want to know if some will vote for a
gay person test the theory out in a real live voting cycle. Our text also explains that, Some field
experiments happen without people even knowing that they are part of an experiment (Ryzin Remler
437). This would be the case for this experiment. Individuals would not be aware that they were being
experimented in order to understand whether knowledge if someone was gay or not would affect their
voting. The amount of individuals used for the experiment depends on the amount of people who comes
and vote within the district choose. This is also a within-subject design.
3) Does having an e-reader make people read more?
With this experiment a survey will be conducted? Close-ended questions will be used to understand
areas such as: does one own an e-reader (kindle, amazonFire, Nook, etc), how often does one read in a
week an e-reader, how often does one read a traditional book. A simple online survey would be used for
this experiment. The book states that, Survey experiments have become much easier to conduct these
days most web survey software programs have built-in capabilities to randomly assign respondents to
different questions or branches of an online questionnaire. A survey of 100 people will be plenty and
this survey will be a between subjects design.
4) Does knowing that a job seeker spent time in prison make employers less likely to hire the
person?
Field Experiment, similar to voting pattern, have individuals go in for interviews with employers and
observe the outcomes. Also very similar many times individuals will not know they are being observed or
participating in an experiment. Survey conducted over several agencies or businesses, within-subject
experiment.
5) Does the amount of an award for each correct word influence how well people do at solving a
crossword puzzle?
Lab experiment is explained in our text as, experiments that take place in a laboratory or other
specialized location and logic of experimentations intervening to create exogenous changes in one
variable. Its important to be able to control the variable of awards on correct words and how this
influences the solving patterns of individuals completing crossword puzzles. Having to separate rooms
with roughly 10-20 people in each and controlling the awards given or not for each room will give the
researches a good indication of the effects of awards on performance. This is also a between- subjects
design.

Question 14D:
1) What is the research question of this study?
To find out whether investing in teachers, or, alternatively, in parents, leads to more gains in kids
educational performance.
2) Name one long-term outcome of interest to the researchers.
A long-term outcome of interest is understanding the quality of life for these kids later on down in life.
The study monitors areas such as adulthood, their employment, pay and criminal records.
3) What is the name of this kind of study?
Field Experiment
4) Show the shell of a table that would demonstrate that the randomization was effective. (Just
use two variables to illustrate.) What statistical significance test(s) would the researchers use?

5) For the long-term outcome you named, describe briefly how the researchers would determine
the results of the study for that outcome.
6) Suppose another researcher says that she already knows that parents matter much more than
schools from her observational studies done using control variables. For example, she finds that
children whose parents read to them regularly earn more on average (when they become adults) than
those whose parents dont, even after controlling for parents education and earnings and many other
factors. She says that this expensive randomized experiment is a waste of money. What kind of
statistical analysis would she have performed?
ANCOVA (Analysis of covariance). The book states that, when control variables are used in the analysis
of an experiment, researchers often refer to them as covariates.
7) What is the counterfactual question associated with her causal effect of parents reading?
Counterfactual is understood to be the world as it would be without the cause present. The
counterfactual of this question would be without parents reading to their children, children would grow
up to make less money.
8) Give one theory that would predict that her estimate of the causal effect of parents reading
on their childrens future earnings would be upwardly biased. (A path diagram may help.)
Parents reading to their children has nothing to do with personal goals and aspirations. Not having a
parent who reads to you on a daily bases forces a child to do thing for themselves resulting in be self-
sufficient. Children who are self-sufficient know how to take care of themselves and in return will make
more money because they have these skills.