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Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices for Q3 of 2008-09 is
estimated at US$ 171.24 billion, as against US$ 162.57 billion in Q3 of 2007-08, showing a growth rate of
5.3 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
Despite the global slowdown, the Indian economy is estimated to have grown at close to 6.7 per cent in
2008-09. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) pegs the GDP growth at 6.1 per cent in 2009-10. This
scenario factors in sectoral growth rates of 2.8-3 per cent, 5-5.5 per cent and 7.5-8 per cent, respectively, for
agriculture, industry and services.
A number of leading indicators, such as increase in hiring, freight movement at major ports and encouraging
data from a number of key manufacturing segments, such as steel and cement, indicate that the downturn
has bottomed out and highlight the Indian economy's resilience. Recent indicators from leading indices,
such as Nomura's Composite Leading Index (CLI), UBS' Lead Economic Indicator (LEI) and ABN Amro'
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), too bear out this optimism in the Indian economy.
Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the Indian market in 2009. Direct
investment inflows also remain strong, prompting official expectations that foreign direct investment (FDI)
inflows in 2009 would better the realised inflows of US$ 33 billion in 2008 and touch US$ 40 billion.
According to the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) 'Asia Capital Markets Monitor' report, the Indian equity
market has emerged as the third biggest after China and Hong Kong in the emerging Asian region, with a
market capitalisation of nearly US$ 600 billion.
Investor sentiment in India has improved significantly in the first quarter of 2009, according to a survey
conducted by Dutch financial services firm ING. With foreign assets growing by more than 100 per cent
annually in recent years, Indian multinational enterprises (MNEs) have become significant investors in global
business markets and India is rapidly staking a claim to being a true global business power, according to a
survey by the Indian School of Business and the Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International
Investment.
Despite the global financial crisis, inflow of foreign capital to the country has increased sharply in 2008-09.
• India's foreign exchange reserves increased by US$ 4.2 billion to US$ 255.9 billion for the week
ended May 8, 2009, according to figures released in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) weekly
statistical supplement.
• Net inflows through various non-resident Indians (NRIs) deposits surged from US$ 179 million in
2007-08 to US$ 3,999 million in 2008-09, according to the RBI.
• FDI inflows during April 2008-January 2009 stood at US$ 23.9 billion compared with US$ 14.4
billion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, witnessing a growth of 65 per cent,
according to the Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion.
• FIIs have made investments of around US$ 2 billion as of May 14, 2009, including a record single
day net purchase of US$ 824.72 million on May 13, 2009, according to the Securities and
Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
• Inflation for the week ended March 7, 2009, fell to an all time low of 0.44 per cent. The sharp fall in
inflation was due to several factors including easing prices of food articles and fuel items along with
a high base effect. Currently, the inflation rate stood at 0.7 per cent for the week ended April 25,
2009.
• The year-on-year (y-o-y) aggregate bank deposits stood at 21.2 per cent as on January 2, 2009.
Bank credit touched 24 per cent (y-o-y) on January 2, 2009, as against 21.4 per cent on January 4,
2008.
• Since October 2008, the RBI has cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and the repo rate by 400 basis
points each. Also, the reverse repo rate has been lowered by 200 basis points. Till April 7, 2009,
the CRR had further been lowered by 50 basis points, while the repo and reverse repo rates have
been lowered by 150 basis points each.
• Exports from special economic zones (SEZs) rose 33 per cent during the year to end-March 2009.
Exports from such tax-free manufacturing hubs totalled US$ 18.16 billion last year up from US$
13.60 billion a year before.
The Indian growth story is spreading to the rural and semi-urban areas as well. The next phase of growth is
expected to come from rural markets with rural India accounting for almost half of the domestic retail market,
valued over US$ 300 billion. Rural India is set to witness an economic boom, with per capita income having
grown by 50 per cent over the last 10 years, mainly on account of rising commodity prices and improved
productivity. Development of basic infrastructure, generation of employment guarantee schemes, better
information services and access to funding are also bringing prosperity to rural households.
The per capita income in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) during 2008-09 is likely to attain a level of US$
528 as compared to the Quick Estimate for the year 2007-08 of US$ 500. The growth rate in per capita
income is estimated at 5.6 per cent during 2008-09, as against the previous year's estimate of 7.6 per cent.
Advantage India
• According to the World Fact Book, India is among the world's youngest nations with a median age
of 25 years as compared to 43 in Japan and 36 in USA. Of the BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India and
China—countries, India is projected to stay the youngest with its working-age population estimated
to rise to 70 per cent of the total demographic by 2030, the largest in the world. India will see 70
million new entrants to its workforce over the next 5 years.
• India has the second largest area of arable land in the world, making it one of the world's largest
food producers—over 200 million tonnes of foodgrains are produced annually. India is the world's
largest producer of milk (100 million tonnes per annum), sugarcane (315 million tonnes per annum)
and tea (930 million kg per annum) and the second largest producer of rice, fruit and vegetables.
• With the largest number of listed companies - 10,000 across 23 stock exchanges, India has the
third largest investor base in the world.
• India's healthy banking system with a network of 70,000 branches is among the largest in the
world.
• According to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), India's consumer market will be the
world's fifth largest (from twelfth) in the world by 2025 and India's middle class will swell by over ten
times from its current size of 50 million to 583 million people by 2025.
Growth potential
• Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are set to see major investments after the straightening out of
certain regulatory tangles. The commerce department expects about 120 SEZs to be operational
by 2009-end, up from existing 87.
• According to the CII Ernst & Young report titled 'India 2012: Telecom growth continues,' India's
telecom services industry revenues are projected to reach US$ 54 billion in 2012, up from US$ 31
billion in 2008. The Indian telecom industry registered the highest number of subscriber additions at
15.84 million in March 2009, setting a global record.
• A McKinsey report, 'The rise of Indian Consumer Market', estimates that the Indian consumer
market is likely to grow four times by 2025, which is currently valued at US$ 511 billion.
• The volume of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and group restructuring deals in India witnessed a
sharp nine times jump at US$ 2.27 billion during March 2009 against the volume of deals in
February 2009, according to a Grant Thornton report.
• India ranks among the top 12 producers of manufacturing value added (MVA)—witnessing an
increase of 12.3 per cent in its MVA output in 2005-07 as against 6.9 per cent in 2000-05—
according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO).
• In textiles, the country is ranked fourth, while in electrical machinery and apparatus it is ranked fifth.
It holds sixth position in the basic metals category; seventh in chemicals and chemical products;
10th in leather, leather products, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; twelfth in machinery
and equipment and motor vehicles.
• In a development slated to enhance India's macroeconomic health as well as energy security,
Reliance Industries (RIL) has commenced natural gas production from its D-6 block in the Krishna-
Godavari (KG) basin.
• India has a market value of US$ 270.98 billion in low-carbon and environmental goods & services
(LCEGS). With a 6 per cent share of the US$ 4.32 trillion global market, the country is tied with
Japan at the third position.
EPA
Instead, the really striking thing is that four countries first lumped
together as a group by the chief economist of Goldman Sachs chose to
convene at all, and in such a high-profile way. And that when they
met, they discussed topics such as reforming the IMF; their demand
for more say in global policy-making; and, in the case of China, Brazil
and Russia, a plan to switch some of their foreign-currency reserves
out of dollars and into IMF bonds.
The fortunes of the others mark a sharp rebound since the turn of the
year. Then, it seemed, the largest emerging markets faced being
overwhelmed along with everyone else. Chinese exports in January
were 18% lower than they had been a year earlier. Industrial growth
fell by two-thirds in November and December. And around 20m
migrant workers were wending their way back to their villages, jobless
after the collapse of construction and export booms in coastal cities.
The notion of “decoupling”—that emerging markets were no longer
mere moons revolving around planet West—suffered a severe setback.
When this study came out in mid-2008 the worldwide crash seemed to
render it instantly obsolete. Yet the sheer size of the meltdown may
temporarily have swamped deeper trends that are now reasserting
themselves as the initial shock recedes. In 2000 developing countries
accounted for 37% of world output (at purchasing power parities). Last
year their share rose to 45%. The share of the BRICs leapt from 16%
to 22%, a sharp rise in such a short period. Almost 60% of all the
increase in world output that occurred in 2000-08 happened in
developing countries; half of it took place in the BRICs alone (see
chart).
If this pattern of growth were resuming, it would be good news: nearly
half the world economy would be bouncing back. And there are one or
two signs that the benefits of growth in the BRICs are being felt
farther afield. Anecdotal evidence suggests “south-south” trade and
investment by richer emerging markets in poorer ones continued to
rise even as global capital and trade flows fell. One example of this is
the “land grab” in which China and Gulf countries are buying millions
of acres of farmland in Africa and South-East Asia. China overtook
America to become Brazil’s largest export market in March and April; it
is also now the largest exporter to India. China is using its $2 trillion of
foreign reserves to invest in other emerging markets: for example,
putting $10 billion into Petrobras, Brazil’s state-run oil company.
But the resilience of China, India and Brazil cannot offset the dire state
of the rest of the world economy. While the three giants recover,
developing countries as a whole are mired in recession. The giants
seem to be decoupling not only from the West but from many of their
smaller emerging brethren, too.
A series of reports confirms how badly things are going there. A review
of ten poor countries by the Overseas Development Institute, a think-
tank in London, concludes that they were worse hit than anyone
expected, with sharp declines in remittances, employment and
revenues and widespread balance-of-payments problems. As the
study’s author, Dirk Willem te Velde, points out, the differences are
often striking. In some countries—Indonesia, Kenya, Bangladesh—
foreign direct investment has held up reasonably well; others—Ghana,
Nigeria and Zambia—are facing sharp declines. Cambodian textile
exports have been hit harder than Bangladeshi ones. But because
import demand, capital flows and the need for foreign workers
declined precipitously in the West, almost all developing countries are
suffering.
In Africa, the UN predicts, output will now fall by 0.9%. That might not
sound too bad but only two months ago the IMF was forecasting a rise
of 1.7% and at the start of the year the UN had projected a 4.8%
increase. To return to pre-crisis growth, says the African Development
Bank (AFDB), would require the continent to attract $50 billion of new
money this year. Africa is nowhere near those levels because world
capital flows are falling. The latest forecast by the Institute of
International Finance says total net flows will collapse from $890
billion in 2007 to just $141 billion this year.
Partly, that the BRICs depend less on exports than do many emerging
markets. In Brazil and India exports are less than 15% of GDP. China,
too, exports less than many people think. Though exports were 34%
of GDP in 2008, these included “processing exports”—goods imported
into China, processed and exported without much value having been
added. All three were thus less affected by the slowdown in world
trade than most.
Size matters when world trade is falling because large economies have
millions of domestic consumers to turn to when foreign markets fail.
China is the best example. Small economies need trade to specialise,
but the pressure of selling into a big domestic market helps companies
in large economies remain competitive even without a lot of
competition from imports. Big economies also tend to be diversified.
India, for example, exports not just garments and cheap electronics—
characteristic of many countries with similar levels of income per head
—but ships, petrochemicals, steel and business services. Being
diversified means little when markets all fail at once. But it is a big
advantage when recovery begins since you are more likely to be in a
business in which demand is rising.
Size and variety may also help the economic stimulus programmes of
China, India and Brazil. In general, one of the commonest problems of
government reflation is that the benefits leak out beyond your borders
because the programme sucks in imports. Giant economies do not face
this problem so acutely because even when trade has been liberalised,
imports naturally tend to be a lower share of GDP.
Brazil and India are following suit, albeit more modestly. Brazil
reduced reserve requirements and gave banks and its deposit-
insurance fund incentives to buy up the loan portfolios of smaller
banks. These measures injected 135 billion reais ($69 billion) into the
domestic credit markets, according to Otaviano Canuto of the World
Bank. Domestic credit rose sharply between September 2008 and
January 2009 and consumer confidence is rebounding.
State of triumph
The question is whether such splurges are efficient and how long can
they last. Consider China’s investment (see article). According to the
IMF’s Mr Felman, in early 2008 all the contribution of investment to
growth came from non-state-owned enterprises, mostly the private
sector; since December 2008, more than half has come from state-
owned enterprises. Something similar is happening in Brazil. Between
last September and this January credit from foreign-owned and
domestic private banks rose by 3%; credit from public banks rose by
14%. The beneficiaries seem to be large firms, where loans are
growing four times as quickly as at small ones.
It is not clear how far, in the long run, the BRICs will be affected by a
big rise in the size of the government and large state-owned firms. But
that rise is probably inevitable. China and, to a lesser extent, Brazil
and India, benefited hugely from America’s appetite for imports in
2000-08. That appetite has fallen and is likely to remain low for years,
as American consumers adjust their spending and savings habits. The
rise may also be difficult to reverse: the experience of the West has
been that the public sector expands relentlessly until it reaches
between 40% and 50% of GDP. But if the BRICs cannot export their
way out of recession, the expansion of government is the main
alternative to the slump being endured in those other big capital
exporters, Germany and Japan. It is part of the price China and others
are paying to clamber out of recession before everyone else.
AFTER the stockmarket crash of October 1929 it took over three years
for America’s government to launch a series of dramatic efforts to end
the Depression, starting with Roosevelt’s declaration of a four-day
bank holiday in March 1933. In-between, America saw the worst
economic collapse in its history. Thousands of banks failed, a
devastating deflation set in, output plunged by a third and
unemployment rose to 25%. The Depression wreaked enormous
damage across the globe, but most of all on America’s economic
psyche. In its aftermath the boundaries between government and
markets were redrawn.
During the past month, little more than a year after the financial storm
first struck in August 2007, America’s government made its most
dramatic interventions in financial markets since the 1930s. At the
time it was not even certain that the economy was in recession and
unemployment stood at 6.1%. In two tumultuous weeks the Federal
Reserve and the Treasury between them nationalised the country’s two
mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; took over AIG, the
world’s largest insurance company; in effect extended government
deposit insurance to $3.4 trillion in money-market funds; temporarily
banned short-selling in over 900 mostly financial stocks; and, most
dramatic of all, pledged to take up to $700 billion of toxic mortgage-
related assets on to its books. The Fed and the Treasury were
determined to prevent the kind of banking catastrophe that
precipitated the Depression. Shell-shocked lawmakers cavilled, but
Congress and the administration eventually agreed.
The landscape of American finance has been radically changed. The
independent investment bank—a quintessential Wall Street animal that
relied on high leverage and wholesale funding—is now all but extinct.
Lehman Brothers has gone bust; Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch have
been swallowed by commercial banks; and Goldman Sachs and
Morgan Stanley have become commercial banks themselves. The
“shadow banking system”—the money-market funds, securities
dealers, hedge funds and the other non-bank financial institutions that
defined deregulated American finance—is metamorphosing at lightning
speed. And in little more than three weeks America’s government, all
told, expanded its gross liabilities by more than $1 trillion—almost
twice as much as the cost so far of the Iraq war.
Beyond that, few things are certain. In late September the turmoil
spread and intensified. Money markets seized up across the globe as
banks refused to lend to each other. Five European banks failed and
European governments fell over themselves to prop up their banking
systems with rescues and guarantees. As this special report went to
press, it was too soon to declare the crisis contained.
Anatomy of a collapse
That crisis has its roots in the biggest housing and credit bubble in
history. America’s house prices, on average, are down by almost a
fifth. Many analysts expect another 10% drop across the country,
which would bring the cumulative decline in nominal house prices close
to that during the Depression. Other countries may fare even worse.
In Britain, for instance, households are even more indebted than in
America, house prices rose faster and have so far fallen by less. On a
quarterly basis prices are now falling in at least half the 20 countries in
The Economist’s house-price index.
The credit losses on the mortgages that financed these houses and on
the pyramids of complicated debt products built on top of them are still
mounting. In its latest calculations the IMF reckons that worldwide
losses on debt originated in America (primarily related to mortgages)
will reach $1.4 trillion, up by almost half from its previous estimate of
$945 billion in April. So far some $760 billion has been written down
by the banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and others that own
the debt.
Globally, banks alone have reported just under $600 billion of credit-
related losses and have raised some $430 billion in new capital. It is
already clear that many more write-downs lie ahead. The demise of
the investment banks, with their far higher gearing, as well as
deleveraging among hedge funds and others in the shadow-banking
system will add to a global credit contraction of many trillions of
dollars. The IMF’s “base case” is that American and European banks
will shed some $10 trillion of assets, equivalent to 14.5% of their stock
of bank credit in 2009. In America overall credit growth will slow to
below 1%, down from a post-war annual average of 9%. That alone
could drag Western economies’ growth rates down by 1.5 percentage
points. Without government action along the lines of America’s $700
billion plan, the IMF reckons credit could shrink by 7.3% in America,
6.3% in Britain and 4.5% in the rest of Europe.
But history teaches an important lesson: that big banking crises are
ultimately solved by throwing in large dollops of public money, and
that early and decisive government action, whether to recapitalise
banks or take on troubled debts, can minimise the cost to the taxpayer
and the damage to the economy. For example, Sweden quickly took
over its failed banks after a property bust in the early 1990s and
recovered relatively fast. By contrast, Japan took a decade to recover
from a financial bust that ultimately cost its taxpayers a sum
equivalent to 24% of GDP.
All in all, America’s government has put some 7% of GDP on the line,
a vast amount of money but well below the 16% of GDP that the
average systemic banking crisis (if there is such a thing) ultimately
costs the public purse. Just how America’s proposed Troubled Asset
Relief Programme (TARP) will work is still unclear. The Treasury plans
to buy huge amounts of distressed debt using a reverse auction
process, where banks offer to sell at a price and the government buys
from the lowest price upwards. The complexities of thousands of
different mortgage-backed assets will make this hard. If direct bank
recapitalisation is still needed, the Treasury can do that too. The main
point is that America is prepared to act, and act decisively.
For the time being, that offers a reason for optimism. So, too, does the
relative strength of the biggest emerging markets, particularly China.
These economies are not as “decoupled” from the rich world’s travails
as they once seemed. Their stockmarkets have plunged and many
currencies have fallen sharply. Domestic demand in much of the
emerging world is slowing but not collapsing. The IMF expects
emerging economies, led by China, to grow by 6.9% in 2008 and 6.1%
in 2009. That will cushion the world economy but may not save it from
recession.
Tipping point
What will be the long-term effect of this mess on the global economy?
Predicting the consequences of an unfinished crisis is perilous. But it is
already clear that, even in the absence of a calamity, the direction of
globalisation will change. For the past two decades the growing
integration of the world economy has coincided with the intellectual
ascent of the Anglo-Saxon brand of free-market capitalism, with
America as its cheerleader. The freeing of trade and capital flows and
the deregulation of domestic industry and finance have both spurred
globalisation and come to symbolise it. Global integration, in large
part, has been about the triumph of markets over governments. That
process is now being reversed in three important ways.
That leads to the second point: the balance between state and market
is changing in areas other than finance. For many countries a more
momentous shock over the past couple of years has been the soaring
price of commodities, which politicians have also blamed on financial
speculation. The food-price spike in late 2007 and early 2008 caused
riots in some 30 countries. In response, governments across the
emerging world extended their reach, increasing subsidies, fixing
prices, banning exports of key commodities and, in India’s case,
restricting futures trading. Concern about food security, particularly in
India and China, was one of the main reasons why the Doha round of
trade negotiations collapsed this summer.
In 1998, the Asian financial crisis left a lasting mark on politics in Southeast Asia. The
Suharto regime fell in Indonesia and, arguably, ongoing turmoil in Malaysia and Thailand
can be traced to the impact of '98.
However, this time around, the region is expected to come through the current recession
relatively unscathed, in comparison with a decade ago, and in comparison with Eastern
Europe, another market-oriented emerging-economy locus.
The latter region has seen a number of governments fall already, amid concerns that the
bailout requirements for shoring up former communist economies might prompt a
"thanks but no thanks" response from Western Europe.
However, the idea that Southeast Asia will emerge without at least some political scar
tissue is misleading. Recent protests in Thailand have their origins in a color-coded
political rift whose history precedes the economic slump. However, with a government
unable to act or function effectively, it is clear that the downturn presents Thaksin's Red
Shirts with an ideal opportunity to replicate the previous success of their Yellow Shirt
rivals, by undermining a government through street violence.
At this stage, however, political casualties of the economic crisis have mostly been seen
in Eastern Europe. Latvian Ivars Godmanis' government was forced to resign in February
when wage reductions of 15 percent in public services resulted in major riots. In the
Ukraine, demonstrations occur almost daily as the country teeters on the brink of
collapse. After Ukraine's government failed to agree on a budget, the IMF has postponed
payment of the second tranche of a $16.4 billion loan.
Similarly, efforts to impose austerity cutbacks demanded by the IMF forced Hungarian
premier Ferenc Gyurcsany to quit in March. Four days later, Czech Prime Minister Mirek
Topolanek, who was supposed to hold the presidency of the EU Council until mid 2009,
along with his government, lost a vote of no-confidence, leaving the Czech Republic and
the EU without a leader.
Any move away from the Peoples Action Party (PAP) domination in Singapore, however,
would amount to something novel. Singapore's GDP could contract by as much as 8
percent this year. As one of Asia's most open economies, where exports of goods and
services last year accounted for around 145 percent of GDP, the city-state has been
slammed by the collapse in global trade.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong may call an early election, to get the best result possible
in case economic pain leads to a bigger backlash, further down the line, against his PAP.
More generally, should the Singapore model (authoritarian politics coupled with
economic prosperity) unravel, it could have implications for other like-minded regimes.
Vietnam, like Singapore, might represent another case for early warning. The ruling
Communist Party has based its legitimacy on market reforms and high growth, but this
could be jeopardized. Already, hardliners in the Hanoi politburo are dismayed that too
much opening-up has compromised the one-party regime, allowing the seeds of dissent to
grow.
Indonesia has just had its third national elections since the 1998 economic collapse saw
autocracy routed and an effective democracy take hold. While final results are not yet
crystal clear, and a presidential poll awaits in July, it appears that the crisis has prompted
an increased pragmatism from candidates and voters alike, with all parties having to
chase votes based on bread-and-butter issues, shifting even Islamist parties such as the
PKS (Islamic Justice Party) closer to the center, for now at least.
The Philippines will enter its own electoral cycle in 2009-10, with the usual freewheeling
no-holds-barred oligarchies dominant. However, remittances, equal to around 10 percent
of GDP, will likely fall drastically, as emigrants struggle to keep jobs abroad in a global
downturn. Manila's parlous public finances and fragile economy will not be able to meet
any shortfall, leaving the country more prone than ever to volatility.
Similarly, large-scale layoffs in Western European countries have hit Eastern European
guest and migrant workers . Remittances account for 17 percent of Bosnia-Herzegovina's
(BiH) GDP and, with workers now pushed into returning home, the socio-political
pressure will increase in countries such as BiH and Macedonia, where unemployment is
now at 34 percent.
Contents
[hide]
• 1 Terminology
• 2 FTSE emerging markets list
• 3 MSCI list
• 4 See also
• 5 References
• 6 Sources
• 7 External links
[edit] Terminology
Originally brought into fashion in the 1980s by then World Bank economist Antoine van
Agtmael,[3] the term is sometimes loosely used as a replacement for emerging economies,
but really signifies a business phenomenon that is not fully described by or constrained to
geography or economic strength; such countries are considered to be in a transitional
phase between developing and developed status. Examples of emerging markets include
Argentina, Brazil [4], Chile, China,[5], Colombia, India, Mexico, Peru, much of Southeast
Asia, countries in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East, and parts of Africa and Latin
America. Emphasizing the fluid nature of the category, political scientist Ian Bremmer
defines an emerging market as "a country where politics matters at least as much as
economics to the markets."[6]
In the 2008 Emerging Economy Report [7] the Center for Knowledge Societies defines
Emerging Economies as those "regions of the world that are experiencing rapid
informationalization under conditions of limited or partial industrialization." It appears
that emerging markets lie at the intersection of non-traditional user behavior, the rise of
new user groups and community adoption of products and services, and innovations in
product technologies and platforms.
The term "rapidly developing economies" is now being used to denote emerging markets
such as The United Arab Emirates, Chile and Malaysia that are undergoing rapid growth.
In recent years, new terms have emerged to describe the largest developing countries
such as BRIC and BRIMC that stand for Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia. These
countries do not share any common agenda, but some experts believe that they are
enjoying an increasing role in the world economy and on political platforms.
A large number of research works are in progress at leading universities and business
schools to study and understand various aspects of Emerging Markets.
It is difficult to make an exact list of emerging (or developed) markets; the best guides
tend to be investment information sources like ISI Emerging Markets and The Economist
or market index makers (such as Morgan Stanley Capital International). These sources
are well-informed, but the nature of investment information sources leads to two potential
problems. One is an element of historicity; markets may be maintained in an index for
continuity, even if the countries have since developed past the emerging market phase.
Possible examples of this are Israel[8], South Korea[9], and Taiwan. A second is the
simplification inherent in making an index; small countries, or countries with limited
market liquidity are often not considered, with their larger neighbours considered an
appropriate stand-in.
The Big Emerging Market (BEM) economies are Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia,
Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.[10]
Newly industrialized countries are emerging markets whose economies have not yet
reached first world status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their developing
counterparts.
The Advanced Emerging Markets are: Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, South
Africa, Taiwan[13].
The Secondary Emerging Markets are some Upper Middle, Lower Middle and Low
Income GNI countries with reasonable market infrastructures and significant size and
some Upper Middle Income GNI countries with lesser developed market infrastructures.
The Secondary Emerging Markets are: Argentina[14], Chile, China, Colombia[15],
Egypt, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Thailand,
Turkey.
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Chile
• China
• Colombia
• Czech Republic
• Egypt
• Hungary
• India
• Indonesia
• Malaysia
• Mexico
• Morocco
• Peru
• Philippines
• Poland
• Russia
• South Africa
• South Korea
• Taiwan
• Thailand
• Turkey
The list tracked by The Economist is the same, except with Hong Kong, Singapore and
Saudi Arabia included (MSCI classifies the first two as Developed Markets)
As mentioned in a previous post 28/1/2008 the world is changing and the new century
looks like it will belong to the emerging economies and perhaps many countries that had
not been thought of.
Pricewaterhouse Coopers LLP explored this in a report, entitled “The World in 2050:
Beyond the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China): a broader look at the emerging
market growth prospects. This interesting analysis uses current data to examine the 17
largest economies and the 13 emerging economies and sets projections for 2050.
It supplants the current G7 ( US, Japan, Italy, UK, France, Canada, Germany) with a
group of emerging country E7 (which includes China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, and
Turkey) projecting that the emerging economies will overtake them by 2050 by 50
percent.
In fact, China is seen to surpass the US by 2025, while India is seen to reach this level of
growth by 2050. As mentioned in a recent post, China is already moving away from low-
end manufacturing which is going offshore to places like Vietnam, Bangladesh and the
Philippines, which interestingly form part of the top ten next wave of emerging nations.
PwC projects that Vietnam will grow to 70 percent of the UK economy by 2050.
China surpassed the US last year to become the second largest exporter in the world
behind Germany. PwC projects that by 2050 Brazil’s economy could be larger than
Japan’s, and the Turkish economy be as large as Italy’s economy. Part of the reason put
forward is the opportunity for increased internal investment and growth in wealth leading
to growth in domestic consumption.
Another factor for the decline in western nations economic prospects is also linked to the
decline in working populations or the effect of an ageing society. The replacement rate in
countries like Italy and France are low and there are already some signs of economic
pressure from the demands placed by the needs of pensioners. This element is also seen
as a risk factor for development of countries like China who have mandated fertility
policies. There seems to be no change from the one-child policy in the near future but this
may change at some time.
The changes will see movement from low-skilled to more high tech industries in
countries like China, while presently underdeveloped nations improve their skill base to
move into low-end manufacturing. This will increase living standards and the capacity
for increases in domestic consumption.
Where does this leave the current crop of OECD countries? The competition from the
emerging economies will force OECD countries to move into niche areas of specialised
technologies of high value or concentrate on commodities where possible and will require
the retraining of their workforce to meet these specialisations.
The change in world position for China is demonstrated in an article from the Xinhua
agency today reporting that the “World Bank seeks to work together with China as strong
partners in Africa to tackle key challenges standing on the way to Africa’s sustained
growth.” The article posits that from China holds huge promise for Africa, not just in
terms of the enormous financial investment that it brings into energy, transportation,
water and other related sectors, but also the technical expertise that comes with its own
development of such world class infrastructure network. China’s example of
development offers Africa scope for improvements in economic development especially
if the problems of politics are able to be overcome. Many countries in Africa have the
potential for growth and Nigeria is one of the list of emerging nations mentioned in the
PwC report.
The world is changing, and sooner than we think. How our own countries fare will
depend on understanding these global movements and being able to find areas of
competitive advantage for our own economic growth. It will have to encompass
demographic, financial as well as technological change. In the face of the challenges of
global warming there is a lot to be done but also there are many areas of opportunity