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August 4, 2010

Not a (Dog) Star?


Satellite Radio Provider Sirius XM Reports Return to Black
Legions of Howard Stern fans may be rejoicing today as the "King of All Media's"
employer SIRIUS XM RADIO INC (SIRI) reported a return to profitability. SIrius XM posted
a profit of $15.3 million for Q2 vs. last year's loss of more than $159 million. The
company now projects current year revenues of $2.8 billion--an increase of $100
million.
SIRIUS XM RADIO INC is garnering bigger revenues as the situation improves for
consumers, and--by extension--the auto makers. Many new car buyers get satellite
radio for a free trial period with their cars. Once they are exposed the service, the like
it enough to become paying customers when their trials expire.
However, a huge draw for SIRIUS XM RADIO INC is Stern himself, who is finishing
out his initial five-year contract with the service. It remains to be seen whether the
service can maintain profitability if Stern-- their most prominent personality and
biggest draw, retires or heads back to Terrestrial radio. One wonders if Stern feels
additional pressure to stay on and help the company based on his options
package. When he started on satellite, the SIRI shares were priced far higher.
Regardless, our models remain nonplussed. ValuEngine has issued a HOLD
recommendation for SIRIUS XM RADIO INC. Based on the information we have
gathered and our resulting research, we feel that SIRIUS XM RADIO INC has the
probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The
company exhibits ATTRACTIVE market valuation and momentum, but UNATTRACTIVE
market/book ratio and 5-year annualized return.

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MARKET OVERVIEW
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued 63.20%
Stocks Overvalued 36.80%
Stocks Undervalued by 20% 30.53%
Stocks Overvalued by 20% 13.81%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Last 12- P/E
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation
MReturn Ratio
Basic Industries -0.43% -0.37% 39.91% 0.44% overvalued 34.85% 23.74
Capital Goods -0.76% -0.70% 7.82% 3.30% undervalued 24.68% 21.91
Consumer Durables -0.19% -0.10% 7.53% 8.37% undervalued 41.73% 18.76
Consumer Non-Durables -0.56% -0.51% 2.65% 4.30% undervalued 27.67% 18.21
Consumer Services -0.89% -0.80% 5.63% 7.39% undervalued 26.60% 21.62
Energy -0.17% -0.07% -1.59% 2.44% overvalued 33.09% 25.32
Finance -0.78% -0.68% 10.63% 2.99% undervalued 14.54% 18.21
Health Care 0.02% 0.13% 5.37% 14.27% undervalued 16.50% 20.61
Public Utilities -0.55% -0.52% -1.61% 2.94% undervalued 16.27% 17.49
Technology -0.46% -0.37% 7.79% 9.60% undervalued 30.57% 27.98
Transportation -1.11% -1.06% 9.04% 2.28% overvalued 30.20% 20.98

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