Clinton 7

From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.
com>
Senttime: 12/01/201505:54:14AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:OnlyGodKnows
Maybetheroyalwe.Agreerethe"camp."
Alwaysshocked,thoughIshouldntbe,athowlittletheyread.Toobusyontheirop-eds,Iguess.
Havetorun
OnTue,Dec1,2015at8:38AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Idon'tconsiderthatabackhandedcomplimentatall.Itdoestakeeffort,concentrationanddisciplineandifthatbe"musicalear"
sobeit.
Ithinkmadelaineshouldshutup-inthesamecampasmike,condi,andalltheotheridiotswhothoughttheywerehandling
Russia.
myfavoritelineintheioffepiece:"man,wethoughtthiswasamoreseriouscountry"um,mike,whothefuckisthis"we"?
OnTue,Dec1,2015at8:23AM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:
NotallthatNeanderthaltechnologically,Iamveryawareofsocialmedia,especiallytwitter.Andfollowitthoughdonotuse
it.Butallowmetogiveyouperhapsabackhandedcomplimentbypointingoutthatitstilltakessomethingofa"musical"earto
pickouttherightnuggets.
Theconferencewassomewhatinteresting:alotofClintonistsandBideniteswhoonceworkedtogetherbutdontreadmuch
anymore.Ontheotherhand,theEasternEuropeansweregood,aswasDavidandAllbrightatdinner.
Notthatyouasked.
Inthe21stcenturythereisthisthingcalledsocialmedia.TwitterisapartseveralfolkswhosetweetsIvisit.Pickeduponthe
originalasdidmcfaulhisself.There'snotricktoit.
OnTue,Dec1,2015at7:42AM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:
TheMan,theMyth....
Lovethephrase,"slightlycrookedRussian,:andIamnotevenaIoffefan.
Geez,wheredoyougetthiscrap.
http://foia.state.gov/searchapp/DOCUMENTS/HRCEmail_NovWeb/256/DOC_0C05790470/C05790470.pdf
http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/671470127603458048
From: DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/02/201506:58:15PM
Subject: Fwd:MarcoRubio:Russia'sAggressionDemandsaResponse
fyi
http://marcorubio.com/news/marco-rubio-turkey-russia-aggression-response/
WhyWeMustStandUpforTurkeyandAgainstRussian
Aggression
rubio_120115_jetfbook
Share
Tweet
Email
ByMarcoRubio
December1,2015
Turkey,ourNATOally,deservesthefullbackingoftheUnitedStatesaftertheshootdownofaRussianmilitaryplanelastweek.Thiseventwas
justthelatestmanifestationofthedangersofallowingRussiatofillthevacuumleftbyPresidentObamaintheMiddleEast.
AsidefromitsviolationofTurkishairspace,thedownedRussianplanewasapparentlytargetingTurkmen-populatedpocketsofnorthernSyria
ratherthanterritorycontrolledbyISIS.MostRussianmilitarystrikessincetheendofSeptemberhavebeennon-ISIStargets,includingmany
civilianareas,revealingthatRussiadoesnotshareourinterestinconfrontinganddefeatingISISbutinsteadisintentonproppinguptheAssad
regime.
Itisfarcicaltothink,evenaftertheterroristattacksinParisonNovember13,thattheUnitedStatesandRussiacanworktogetherinresolvingthe
crisisinSyria.Wesimplydonotsharecommoninterests,letalonevalues,withRussia.PresidentVladimirPutin,aveteranoftheKGB,leadsone
ofthemostcorrupt,kleptocratic,andauthoritarianregimesintheworld.
TransparencyInternationalranksRussiaverylowinitscorruptionperceptionsindex(136outof175countries).ArecentReutersreport
revealedhowPutinsdaughterandherhusbandhaveholdingsworthsome$2billion.AndPutinhimselfisestimatedtobeworthtensofbillionsof
dollars.
CorruptionisPutinsgreatestexport,butitisnottheonlyproblemwefacefromhisrule.Putinresortstoanymeasuresnecessarytostayinpower,
andcriticsandopponentswindupharassed,imprisoned,andevenmurdered.
ThehumanrightssituationinRussiaunderPutinistheworstithasbeensincethecollapseoftheUSSR.Andgiventhedreadfulwayhetreatshis
ownpeople,itshouldsurprisenoonethatPutinsupportslike-mindedauthoritarians,includingSyriasBasharal-Assad.Heinvadeshisneighborsto
preventtheirdeeperintegrationwiththeWest.HefabricatesthemyththattheWestandNATOenlargementarethreatstoRussia,whenthereality
isthatRussiasmostsecureandstablebordersarewithcountriesthatbelongtoNATO.
PutinhasdescribedtheTurkishdowningoftheRussianmilitaryplaneasastabintheback.ButPutinhasbeenattackingWesterncountriesfor
yearsby,forexample,useofenergycutoffsandtradeembargoesagainstneighboringstatesthecyberattackagainstEstoniain2007theinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008theinvasionandongoingaggressionagainstUkraineandtheillegalannexationofCrimea(thefirstsuchannexationsinceWorld
WarII)militaryanddiplomaticsupportforthemurderousAssadregimeinSyriaplanneddeliveryofadvancedmissiledefensesystemstoIran
anddangerousflyoversbyRussianmilitaryaircraftofNATOmemberstatesterritory.
PutinexploitsweaknessinhisWesterncounterparts,andhehasseenplentyofthatfromPresidentObamaandSecretaryClintonoverthepast
sevenyears.Heonlyunderstandsstrengthandwillbackdownifpresentedwithachallenge.SomeofmyfellowRepublicansnaivelythinktheycan
sitdownanddevelopagoodrelationshipwithPutin.TheythinktheyknowhowtostrikedealswithhimthatswhatBarackObamaandHillary
Clintonthought,too,andweallknowwhatadisastertheirresetpolicyhasbeenforEuropessecurityandAmericasstandingintheworld.
ThislatestincidentwithTurkeyshouldalsorenewconversationswithintheallianceaboutwhetherNATOasaninstitutionshouldbeinvolvedinthe
responsetotheterroristattacksonParisandthebroaderfightagainstISIS.ThecivilwarinSyriahasthreatenedthesecurityofTurkeyforyears
andnowthefalloutfromthisconflicthasspilledovertothreatenallNATOalliesonbothsidesoftheAtlantic.BringingNATOintothefightin
concertwithregionalArabpartnersandlocalforcesonthegroundwouldbringsomemuchneededfirepowerandcoordinationtoawarthatwe
arenotcurrentlywinning.
StepstoavoidarepeatofwhathappenedlastTuesdayareworthpursuingtoavoidafurtherescalationintensions,butifanotherRussianmilitary
planeviolatesTurkishairspace,ittooshouldbewarnedfirstandshotdownifitignoresthosewarnings.
Eventually,Putinwillgetthemessage.Heneedstounderstandthatthereareseriouscostsforinvadingneighbors,proppingupamurderousdictator
likeAssad,andviolatingtheairspaceofandthreateningothercountries.
Tobesure,TurkeypresentsitsownchallengestoourinterestsintheMiddleEast.Forseveralyears,itdidlittletocounterthefesteringextremism
onitsborders,givingISISfreedomtomaneuverandimportrecruits.Afteragreeingtojointhefightagainsttheterrorgroupthispastsummer,
Turkeyhastargeteditsparingly,directingmostofitseffortstowardstheKurdistanWorkersParty(PKK)andotherKurdishgroups.Meanwhile,
athome,PresidentErdoganhasclampeddownonthepressandharmedfreedomofexpression.
Theseissuesareimportant,andtheUnitedStatesmustraisethem.ButunlikewithRussia,theUnitedStatescandosowithinthecontextofour
NATOalliance.MaintainingtheintegrityofthatallianceiscrucialnotjustforthesecurityoftheMiddleEast,butalsoforthesecurityofEurope.
WerewetooptoutofdefendingTurkey,PutinmayconcludethathecanbullyourotherNATOpartnersaswell.
Ibelievestronglyinspeakingtruthtopower.Weshouldnotsugarcoatoneofthemostcorrupt,abusive,andaggressiveleadersintheworldtoday.
Weneedtoshowgreatersolidaritywithouralliesandfriendsaroundtheglobeanddemonstrateawillingnesstostandupforourprinciples.The
dayswhenPutincalledtheshotsshouldhavebeenoverlongago.TheycertainlywillendifIbecomepresident.
SentfrommyiPhone
Senttime: 12/02/201506:58:15PM
Subject: Fwd:MarcoRubio:Russia'sAggressionDemandsaResponse
fyi
Aggression
Share
Tweet
Email
ByMarcoRubio
December1,2015
regime.
TransparencyInternationalranksRussiaverylowinitscorruptionperceptionsindex(136outof175countries).ArecentReutersreport
revealedhowPutinsdaughterandherhusbandhaveholdingsworthsome$2billion.AndPutinhimselfisestimatedtobeworthtensofbillionsof
dollars.
SentfrommyiPhone
Senttime: 12/04/201504:51:56AM
Subject: Re:MarcoRubio:Russia'sAggressionDemandsaResponse
Mostofit,yes.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnDec4,2015,at3:17AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Didyouwritethis?
OnDec2,2015,at9:58PM,DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>wrote:
fyi
Aggression
Share
Tweet
Email
ByMarcoRubio
December1,2015
Turkey,ourNATOally,deservesthefullbackingoftheUnitedStatesaftertheshootdownofaRussianmilitaryplanelastweek.This
eventwasjustthelatestmanifestationofthedangersofallowingRussiatofillthevacuumleftbyPresidentObamaintheMiddleEast.
AsidefromitsviolationofTurkishairspace,thedownedRussianplanewasapparentlytargetingTurkmen-populatedpocketsof
northernSyriaratherthanterritorycontrolledbyISIS.MostRussianmilitarystrikessincetheendofSeptemberhavebeennon-ISIS
targets,includingmanycivilianareas,revealingthatRussiadoesnotshareourinterestinconfrontinganddefeatingISISbutinsteadis
intentonproppinguptheAssadregime.
Itisfarcicaltothink,evenaftertheterroristattacksinParisonNovember13,thattheUnitedStatesandRussiacanworktogetherin
resolvingthecrisisinSyria.Wesimplydonotsharecommoninterests,letalonevalues,withRussia.PresidentVladimirPutin,a
veteranoftheKGB,leadsoneofthemostcorrupt,kleptocratic,andauthoritarianregimesintheworld.
TransparencyInternationalranksRussiaverylowinitscorruptionperceptionsindex(136outof175countries).ArecentReuters
reportrevealedhowPutinsdaughterandherhusbandhaveholdingsworthsome$2billion.AndPutinhimselfisestimatedtobe
worthtensofbillionsofdollars.
CorruptionisPutinsgreatestexport,butitisnottheonlyproblemwefacefromhisrule.Putinresortstoanymeasuresnecessaryto
stayinpower,andcriticsandopponentswindupharassed,imprisoned,andevenmurdered.
ThehumanrightssituationinRussiaunderPutinistheworstithasbeensincethecollapseoftheUSSR.Andgiventhedreadfulway
hetreatshisownpeople,itshouldsurprisenoonethatPutinsupportslike-mindedauthoritarians,includingSyriasBasharal-Assad.
HeinvadeshisneighborstopreventtheirdeeperintegrationwiththeWest.HefabricatesthemyththattheWestandNATO
enlargementarethreatstoRussia,whentherealityisthatRussiasmostsecureandstablebordersarewithcountriesthatbelongto
NATO.
PutinhasdescribedtheTurkishdowningoftheRussianmilitaryplaneasastabintheback.ButPutinhasbeenattackingWestern
countriesforyearsby,forexample,useofenergycutoffsandtradeembargoesagainstneighboringstatesthecyberattackagainst
Estoniain2007theinvasionofGeorgiain2008theinvasionandongoingaggressionagainstUkraineandtheillegalannexationof
Crimea(thefirstsuchannexationsinceWorldWarII)militaryanddiplomaticsupportforthemurderousAssadregimeinSyria
planneddeliveryofadvancedmissiledefensesystemstoIrananddangerousflyoversbyRussianmilitaryaircraftofNATOmember
statesterritory.
PutinexploitsweaknessinhisWesterncounterparts,andhehasseenplentyofthatfromPresidentObamaandSecretaryClintonover
thepastsevenyears.Heonlyunderstandsstrengthandwillbackdownifpresentedwithachallenge.SomeofmyfellowRepublicans
naivelythinktheycansitdownanddevelopagoodrelationshipwithPutin.Theythinktheyknowhowtostrikedealswithhim
thatswhatBarackObamaandHillaryClintonthought,too,andweallknowwhatadisastertheirresetpolicyhasbeenfor
EuropessecurityandAmericasstandingintheworld.
ThislatestincidentwithTurkeyshouldalsorenewconversationswithintheallianceaboutwhetherNATOasaninstitutionshouldbe
involvedintheresponsetotheterroristattacksonParisandthebroaderfightagainstISIS.ThecivilwarinSyriahasthreatenedthe
securityofTurkeyforyearsandnowthefalloutfromthisconflicthasspilledovertothreatenallNATOalliesonbothsidesofthe
Atlantic.BringingNATOintothefightinconcertwithregionalArabpartnersandlocalforcesonthegroundwouldbringsomemuch
neededfirepowerandcoordinationtoawarthatwearenotcurrentlywinning.
StepstoavoidarepeatofwhathappenedlastTuesdayareworthpursuingtoavoidafurtherescalationintensions,butifanother
RussianmilitaryplaneviolatesTurkishairspace,ittooshouldbewarnedfirstandshotdownifitignoresthosewarnings.
Eventually,Putinwillgetthemessage.Heneedstounderstandthatthereareseriouscostsforinvadingneighbors,proppingupa
murderousdictatorlikeAssad,andviolatingtheairspaceofandthreateningothercountries.
Tobesure,TurkeypresentsitsownchallengestoourinterestsintheMiddleEast.Forseveralyears,itdidlittletocounterthe
festeringextremismonitsborders,givingISISfreedomtomaneuverandimportrecruits.Afteragreeingtojointhefightagainstthe
terrorgroupthispastsummer,Turkeyhastargeteditsparingly,directingmostofitseffortstowardstheKurdistanWorkersParty
(PKK)andotherKurdishgroups.Meanwhile,athome,PresidentErdoganhasclampeddownonthepressandharmedfreedomof
expression.
Theseissuesareimportant,andtheUnitedStatesmustraisethem.ButunlikewithRussia,theUnitedStatescandosowithinthe
contextofourNATOalliance.MaintainingtheintegrityofthatallianceiscrucialnotjustforthesecurityoftheMiddleEast,but
alsoforthesecurityofEurope.WerewetooptoutofdefendingTurkey,PutinmayconcludethathecanbullyourotherNATO
partnersaswell.
Ibelievestronglyinspeakingtruthtopower.Weshouldnotsugarcoatoneofthemostcorrupt,abusive,andaggressiveleadersinthe
worldtoday.Weneedtoshowgreatersolidaritywithouralliesandfriendsaroundtheglobeanddemonstrateawillingnesstostandup
forourprinciples.ThedayswhenPutincalledtheshotsshouldhavebeenoverlongago.TheycertainlywillendifIbecomepresident.
SentfrommyiPhone
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/05/201505:53:02AM
To: DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>
Subject: ThePerplexingCaseoftheThreeVladimirPutins-WashingtonWire-WSJ
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/03/the-perplexing-case-of-the-three-vladimir-putins/
ThePerplexingCaseoftheThreeVladimirPutins
5:27pmET
Dec3,2015
ThinkTank
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinaddressestheFederalAssemblyincludingStateDumadeputies,membersof
theFederationCouncil,regionalgovernors,andcivilsocietyrepresentativesattheKremlininMoscowon
Dec.3.
Reuters
SixdifferentVladimirPutinsthatshowmanyFionaHillandCliffordGaddycountedintheirexcellentbook,Mr.
Putin,inwhichtheyidentifiedtheRussianpresidentsmanypersonas.IcountedonlythreeonThursdayduringhis
annualaddresstotheFederalAssembly.Buttheyreallimportant,andeachhasamessageforWestern
diplomats.
ThefirstPutinwastheonewhollcommandtheheadlinesthewarpresidentexhortingtheworldtobackhisanti-
terrorismcampaigninSyriaandthreateninganyonewhogetsinhisway.Themoneyquotesinthespeechwerethe
saber-rattlingreferencestoTurkey.Mr.PutinspokeoftheTurkishgovernmentasarulingcliquehesuggested
thatitsleadershadlosttheirmindsandpromisedfurtherretaliationforthedowningofaRussianwarplaneon
theSyrian-Turkishborder.(Theyllregretit.Weknowwhattodo.)EvenbyMr.Putinstheatricalstandards,this
wasprettywildtalk.HisconfrontationwithTurkeyisabouttobecomemoreharrowing.
ThesecondPutinwastheinvisibleonethewarpresidentwhostirsupacrisisandthensimplydropsit.Iwaited
throughtheentireFidelCastro-lengthaddress,wonderingwhetherMr.PutinwouldrefertoUkraineatall.The
answerwasyes:attheveryend,aone-sentencementionofCrimea.ButabouttheongoingcrisisineasternUkraine,
notaword.
Mr.PutinhasnotnecessarilydecidedtocalloffhisUkrainianadventure.Hesnotconcedingdefeatyet.Evenso,
heseemstounderstandthatvictoryisoutofthequestion.Westerngovernmentsshouldrememberthissuccessduring
thenextphaseofthestandoffbetweenTurkeyandRussia.Mr.Putintalksverytoughandbreaksalotofcrockery.
Butheknowshislimitsandrespondstopush-back.
TheheartofThursdaysspeechwasnotaboutwarandpeacebutaboutdomesticissues,especiallytheslowing
economy.HerewesawyetanotherPutinsomeonewhoneitherblusteredabouthisproblemsnorpretendedthat
theydontexist.Sometimesheemphasizedthebrightside(talkingabouttechnicaladvancesinRussianmedicine,for
example,orimprovedlifeexpectancy).Yettheoverallmessagewasdownbeat,evenchastened.Therewereno
promisesofresumedgrowthenergypriceswillstaylow,herecognized.Mr.PutintoldhisaudiencethatRussiafaces
massiveproblemsofgovernmentalcorruption,especiallyinlawenforcement.Thecountryseconomicprospectsare
blightedbythesystematicbreakup,yearafteryear,oflegitimatebusinessesbyofficialbullyingandintimidation.
ForallthehysteriathathecultivatesUkraineoneyear,TurkeythenextMr.Putincantignorewhatsonthe
Russiannationalmind:concernaboutthepredatorysystemhehasbuilt.Soonerorlater,heorhissuccessorwill
havetodealwithit.
StephenSestanovich,aprofessoratColumbiaUniversityandseniorfellowattheCouncilonForeign
Relations,istheauthorofMaximalist:AmericaintheWorldFromTrumantoObama.Heison
Twitter:@ssestanovich.
ALSOINTHINKTANK:
Clintonvs.Rubio:WhosRightAboutRadicalIslam?
HowTurkeysPorousBorderWithSyriaTiesIntoIslamicStateFinancing
TheCaseforReassessingU.S.StrategyonSyriaandISIS
WhyClosingBorderstoSyrianRefugeesWontStemTerroristThreats
WillWeStayCommittedtoaLongBattleAgainstISISExtremism?
______________________________________________________
2016ElectionCalendar|WSJ/NBCPolls|2016PollStandings
PoliticsAlerts:Getemailalertsonbreakingnewsandbigscoops.
CapitalJournalDaybreakNewsletter:Signuptogetthelatestonpolitics,policyanddefensedeliveredtoyour
inboxeverymorning.
ForthelatestWashingtonnews,
Foroutsideanalysis,
Senttime: 11/17/201512:18:10AM
To: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Subject: ThesurprisingreasonwhyISISmaybelashingout:becauseit'slosing-Vox
http://www.vox.com/world/2015/11/16/9744490/paris-attacks-isis-losing
ThesurprisingreasonwhyISISmaybelashingout:becauseit'slosing
OnThursday,onedaybeforeterroristswhoappeartohavebeenlinkedtoISISlaunchedaseriesofdevastatingattacksacrossParis,
PresidentObamawentonABCandmadeacommentthatnowlooksprettybad:
Whatistrueisthatfromthestart,ourgoalhasbeenfirsttocontain,andwehavecontainedthem.
InthewakeofParis,itlookedtomanylikeObamahadbadlyoverhypedhisadministration'seffortsagainstISIS.At
Saturday'sDemocraticpresidentialdebate,moderatorJohnDickersonaskedHillaryClintonifthequotemeantthattheObama
administration'slegacywillbe"thatitunderestimatedthethreatfromISIS."
Obama'scommentsdon'tlookquiteasbadincontext.Rather,asPolitiFactpointsout,ObamawassayingthatISIS'sterritorialexpansion
intheMiddleEasthasbeencontainedthat,partlyasaresultofUSactions,itsmarchacrossSyriaandIraqhadbeenhalted.That'sboth
amuchmoremodestclaimandfactuallycorrect.
"Thestatementis,inthecontextoftheinterview...almostentirelycorrect,"DaveedGartenstein-Ross,aseniorfellowattheFoundation
fortheDefenseofDemocracies,toldme.
ButastheParisattacksshow,thatinitselfishardlycausefortriumphalism.Andit'snotnecessarilyacoincidencethatthisattackoccurred
asISIShasbeenlosinggroundinSyriaandIraq.Perversely,theworld'ssuccessincontainingISISterritoriallyactuallymakesthegroup
moredangerousinternationally,atleastintheshortterm.
SomeanalystsworrythatasISISsuffersbattlefieldlosses,itmayshiftmoreofitsenergyawayfromthebattlefieldandintointernational
terrorattackslikewhathappenedinParis.
ISISislosinggroundinSyriaandIraq
OnthegroundinIraqandSyria,ISIShasinfactbeenstalledandinmanyplaceseventurnedback.AccordingtoWillMcCants,theheadof
theBrookingsInstitution'sProjectonUSRelationsWiththeIslamicWorld,ISIS"lostsomethinglike25percentoftheirterritory"since
itspeaklastsummer.
BytheendofJune2015,ISIShadlostnearly10percentoftheremainingterritoryitheldatthebeginningoftheyear.Redareasonthis
mapshowISISterritoriallosses,andgreenshowsgains:
(IHSJane's360)
(IHSJane's360)
AttheendofJune,KurdishfightersbrokethroughinnorthernSyria,takingthestrategictownofTalAfarandadvancingtowithin
roughly30milesofISIS'sdefactocapital,Raqqa.
Theselosseshavecontinuedsince.
"Youlookbacktothepasttwomonths,"Gartenstein-Rosssays,"andit'sjusttwomonthofsteadylosses."
HeticksoffalistofISISlosses:BaijidistrictinIraq,almostallofitspresenceneartheKurdish-heldcityKirkuk,theoutlyingareasnear
Ramadi,anddefeatsinpartsofSyria(likenorthernAleppo).Justlastweek,ISISlosttheIraqitownofSinjar,whichcutsoffanimportant
highwayconnectingitsIraqiandSyrianholdings.
NoneoftheselossesmeanthatISISisonthevergeofcollapse.Rather,they'repartofaslowbutsteadyprocessofchippingawayatthe
group'sholdings,takingadvantageofitsstructuralweaknessestoomanystrongenemies,vulnerabilitytoairpower,norealability
tohidetoputitonthepathtowarddefeat.
"RightnowandIapproveofthiswe'removingataverydeliberaterate,"MichaelKnights,theLaferfellowattheWashington
InstituteforNearEastPolicy,says."We'repushingforwardniceandslowly,snippingofflittlebitsofthecaliphate,[and]buildingour
confidence."
Theproblem:AsISISweakens,itcouldgetmoredangerousabroad
(JeffJMitchell/GettyImages)
FrenchcitizensgrieveoutsidetheBataclannightclubinParis,oneoftheprincipaltargetsoftheNovember13attacks.
AsISISlosesterritoryinSyriaandIraq,itposeslessofadangertothepeoplewhoarefarandawayitsprimaryvictims:Syriansand
Iraqis.Still,whetherObamameanttoimplythisornot,hiscommentssoundedtomanylikeanargumentthatbecauseISISwasbeing
containedterritorially,itwaslessofadangerthatthethreatitposedtotheUSwasbeingcontainedaswell.
Obama'scommentswere"terribly,terriblyphrasedjustdisastrously,"Gartenstein-Rosssays."Whenyouusetheterm'containment,'
peoplenaturallythinkofitontwosortofdualtracks,terrorismandterritory."
AsISISweakensasastatebylosingterritory,itmayactuallybecomemoredangerousasaterroristorganization.UntilParis,ISISdidn't
reallyfocusmucheffortonstagingattacksonforeigntargetsoutsideoftheMiddleEast.SomeanalystsworrythatParisrepresentsthe
beginningofISISdevotingmoreresourcestostagingthesedramaticattacksoutsideitsterritoryperhapsinparttocompensateforits
territoriallosses.
"Wedon'tyetknowthatthere'satrend,"Gartenstein-Rosscautions."ButIdothinkit'slikelythatthatpivotdoesandwillexist."
ISISthrivesonanarrativeofvictory.Thereasonitattractssomanyforeignrecruits,includingWesterners,isthatitsellsitselfasthe
prophesiedIslamiccaliphate:thatitsvictoriesareinevitableanddivinelyinspired.Ifit'slosingterritory,thenitneedstosellthisnarrative
throughothermeans.Thatmeansclaiming"victory"overtheWestbyhittingitwithterroristattacks.
"MuchofISIS'sideologicalsupportandrecruitingstrengthemanatesfromanarrativethatitisvictorious,"J.M.Berger,theco-authorof
ISIS:AStateofTerror,explainsviaemail.TheParisattack"changestheconversationfrom'ISISiscontained'onNovember12to'ISISis
rampaginguncontrollably'onNovember14."
Moreover,ISISmaybelievethatterroristattacksareitsbestwayofstrikingbackagainstandmaybe,itbelieves,deterringforeign
attacks.Thatconclusionwouldlikelybewrong,butISISmaystillbelieveit.TheFrencharepartoftheUS-ledcoalitionbombingISISin
SyriaandIraq.ISISsuicidebombershavealsorecentlyhiddeninacivilianpartofBeirutwhereHezbollah,anISISenemy,isstrong.The
groupisalsosuspectedofbombingaRussiancivilianairlinerinEgypt.
FromISIS'spointofview,thesekindsofattackscouldbeawaytowarnoffcountriesthatarepartlyresponsibleforitsterritorialdefeats.
ThemoreyoufightISIS,themoreofatargetyoubecomeandISISwon'tleaveyoualoneuntilyouleaveitalone.
"IthinkithasmadethecalculationthatitcannolongerpursueitsexpansionstrategyinSyriaandIraqwithoutchangingthecalculationsof
theenemiescurrentlyhaltingitsexpansion,"McCantssays."Theseattackswouldbeawayofinflictingcostsonthem."
Gartenstein-Rossseesasimilarlogicatwork."Ifyou'reexperiencingterritoriallosses,howdoyoumakeupforthat?Well,pivotingto
asymmetricwarfaremakesalotofsense,"hesays."Youcanimposeacostoncountriesforbeingpartofanefforttobeatyouback."
ItisISIS'sstatusasbothterroristgroupandministatethatmakeitsodangerous:UntilISISisdefeatedmorethoroughlyinitsIraqiand
Syrianterritory,itwillhavesubstantialresourcesatitsdisposaltoplanandexecuteinternationalterroristattacks.
"ISISisastatethathasmillionsofdollarsthatitcanspendonthesekindsofoperations,"McCantssays."We'renottalkingaboutal-Qaeda
hidingoutinPakistan.We'retalkingaboutanactualgovernmentthathasmoneytoputbehindplotsandhasverymotivatedpeople,manyof
themwithEuropeanpassportsthatcancarrythemout."
ThatsuggestsakindofgrimironytotheISISwar.Inmilitaryterms,thecampaigntodefeatISISisgoingbetterthanmostpeoplethink.
Butinsomeways,atleastinthenearterm,thatmaybemakingISISmoredangerousthanever.
Wasthisarticlehelpful?
Filedunder:
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TheLatest
InthisStoryStream
Senttime: 12/04/201504:51:56AM
Subject: Re:MarcoRubio:Russia'sAggressionDemandsaResponse
Mostofit,yes.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnDec4,2015,at3:17AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Didyouwritethis?
OnDec2,2015,at9:58PM,DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>wrote:
fyi
Aggression
Share
Tweet
Email
ByMarcoRubio
December1,2015
Turkey,ourNATOally,deservesthefullbackingoftheUnitedStatesaftertheshootdownofaRussianmilitaryplanelastweek.This
eventwasjustthelatestmanifestationofthedangersofallowingRussiatofillthevacuumleftbyPresidentObamaintheMiddleEast.
AsidefromitsviolationofTurkishairspace,thedownedRussianplanewasapparentlytargetingTurkmen-populatedpocketsof
northernSyriaratherthanterritorycontrolledbyISIS.MostRussianmilitarystrikessincetheendofSeptemberhavebeennon-ISIS
targets,includingmanycivilianareas,revealingthatRussiadoesnotshareourinterestinconfrontinganddefeatingISISbutinsteadis
intentonproppinguptheAssadregime.
Itisfarcicaltothink,evenaftertheterroristattacksinParisonNovember13,thattheUnitedStatesandRussiacanworktogetherin
resolvingthecrisisinSyria.Wesimplydonotsharecommoninterests,letalonevalues,withRussia.PresidentVladimirPutin,a
veteranoftheKGB,leadsoneofthemostcorrupt,kleptocratic,andauthoritarianregimesintheworld.
reportrevealedhowPutinsdaughterandherhusbandhaveholdingsworthsome$2billion.AndPutinhimselfisestimatedtobe
worthtensofbillionsofdollars.
CorruptionisPutinsgreatestexport,butitisnottheonlyproblemwefacefromhisrule.Putinresortstoanymeasuresnecessaryto
stayinpower,andcriticsandopponentswindupharassed,imprisoned,andevenmurdered.
ThehumanrightssituationinRussiaunderPutinistheworstithasbeensincethecollapseoftheUSSR.Andgiventhedreadfulway
hetreatshisownpeople,itshouldsurprisenoonethatPutinsupportslike-mindedauthoritarians,includingSyriasBasharal-Assad.
HeinvadeshisneighborstopreventtheirdeeperintegrationwiththeWest.HefabricatesthemyththattheWestandNATO
enlargementarethreatstoRussia,whentherealityisthatRussiasmostsecureandstablebordersarewithcountriesthatbelongto
NATO.
PutinhasdescribedtheTurkishdowningoftheRussianmilitaryplaneasastabintheback.ButPutinhasbeenattackingWestern
countriesforyearsby,forexample,useofenergycutoffsandtradeembargoesagainstneighboringstatesthecyberattackagainst
Estoniain2007theinvasionofGeorgiain2008theinvasionandongoingaggressionagainstUkraineandtheillegalannexationof
Crimea(thefirstsuchannexationsinceWorldWarII)militaryanddiplomaticsupportforthemurderousAssadregimeinSyria
planneddeliveryofadvancedmissiledefensesystemstoIrananddangerousflyoversbyRussianmilitaryaircraftofNATOmember
statesterritory.
PutinexploitsweaknessinhisWesterncounterparts,andhehasseenplentyofthatfromPresidentObamaandSecretaryClintonover
thepastsevenyears.Heonlyunderstandsstrengthandwillbackdownifpresentedwithachallenge.SomeofmyfellowRepublicans
naivelythinktheycansitdownanddevelopagoodrelationshipwithPutin.Theythinktheyknowhowtostrikedealswithhim
thatswhatBarackObamaandHillaryClintonthought,too,andweallknowwhatadisastertheirresetpolicyhasbeenfor
EuropessecurityandAmericasstandingintheworld.
ThislatestincidentwithTurkeyshouldalsorenewconversationswithintheallianceaboutwhetherNATOasaninstitutionshouldbe
involvedintheresponsetotheterroristattacksonParisandthebroaderfightagainstISIS.ThecivilwarinSyriahasthreatenedthe
securityofTurkeyforyearsandnowthefalloutfromthisconflicthasspilledovertothreatenallNATOalliesonbothsidesofthe
Atlantic.BringingNATOintothefightinconcertwithregionalArabpartnersandlocalforcesonthegroundwouldbringsomemuch
neededfirepowerandcoordinationtoawarthatwearenotcurrentlywinning.
StepstoavoidarepeatofwhathappenedlastTuesdayareworthpursuingtoavoidafurtherescalationintensions,butifanother
RussianmilitaryplaneviolatesTurkishairspace,ittooshouldbewarnedfirstandshotdownifitignoresthosewarnings.
Eventually,Putinwillgetthemessage.Heneedstounderstandthatthereareseriouscostsforinvadingneighbors,proppingupa
murderousdictatorlikeAssad,andviolatingtheairspaceofandthreateningothercountries.
Tobesure,TurkeypresentsitsownchallengestoourinterestsintheMiddleEast.Forseveralyears,itdidlittletocounterthe
festeringextremismonitsborders,givingISISfreedomtomaneuverandimportrecruits.Afteragreeingtojointhefightagainstthe
terrorgroupthispastsummer,Turkeyhastargeteditsparingly,directingmostofitseffortstowardstheKurdistanWorkersParty
(PKK)andotherKurdishgroups.Meanwhile,athome,PresidentErdoganhasclampeddownonthepressandharmedfreedomof
expression.
Theseissuesareimportant,andtheUnitedStatesmustraisethem.ButunlikewithRussia,theUnitedStatescandosowithinthe
contextofourNATOalliance.MaintainingtheintegrityofthatallianceiscrucialnotjustforthesecurityoftheMiddleEast,but
alsoforthesecurityofEurope.WerewetooptoutofdefendingTurkey,PutinmayconcludethathecanbullyourotherNATO
partnersaswell.
Ibelievestronglyinspeakingtruthtopower.Weshouldnotsugarcoatoneofthemostcorrupt,abusive,andaggressiveleadersinthe
worldtoday.Weneedtoshowgreatersolidaritywithouralliesandfriendsaroundtheglobeanddemonstrateawillingnesstostandup
forourprinciples.ThedayswhenPutincalledtheshotsshouldhavebeenoverlongago.TheycertainlywillendifIbecomepresident.
SentfrommyiPhone
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 11/23/201509:22:43AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&Tatar
Subject:
BudsBlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,November23,20157:32AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&TatarBuds
BlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Mon,Nov23,2015at1:40AM
Subject:Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Guardian
Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
ExplosionsonFridayandSundaycutoffelectricitysupplyfromUkraine,forcingRussian-annexedpeninsulato
relyongenerators
Almost2millionCrimeanswereleftwithoutpowerandindarknessattheweekendafterunknownsaboteursblewuppowerlines
tothepeninsula,underscoringitscontinueddependenceonUkrainedespiteitsannexationbyRussialastyear.
AstateofemergencywasdeclaredafterfourpylonsthattransmitpowertoCrimeawereblownuponFridayandSaturdaynight.
Russiasenergyministryscrambledtorestoreelectricitytocitiesusinggenerators,butthemajorityofpeopleonthepeninsula
remainedpowerlessonSaturdaynight.
Cableandmobileinternetstoppedworking,thoughtherewasstillmobilephonecoverage,andwatersuppliestohigh-risebuildings
halted.
Theattacksthreatentocomplicatestill-volatilerelationsbetweenMoscowandKievafter18monthsofon-offconflictover
territoryintheeastofUkraine.CrimeawasannexedbyRussiain2014afteranarmedbutbloodlessintervention,butthe
territorysstatusremainsprecariousbecauseofitsrelianceonUkraine.
TheCrimeanprimeminister,SergeiAksyonov,calledthedestructionoftheelectricitysupplyaterroristact.Noonewillbring
Crimeanstotheirknees,wewontallowfornegotiations,hesaid.Wewontletanyonespeaktousinthelanguageof
blackmail.
TheCrimeanprosecutorgeneral,NatalyaPoklonskaya,saidacriminalcasewouldopenedoverthedestructionofthepowerlines
acrossthedefactoborderwithUkraine,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.
Alltheirmethods,alltheirdoingsfallundertheactionofapunishablecrime,shesaid.Mondayhasbeendeclaredaholidayin
Crimeaduetothepowersituation.
ThefourpylonswerefirstattackedonFridayinUkrainesKhersonregion.Explosionsdownedtwolinesanddamagedtheother
two.EarlyonSundayanotherexplosioncutallpowertoCrimea.Theidentityoftheattackerswasunclear.
AfterthefirstattackonFriday,Ukrenergo,Ukrainesstate-runenergycompany,postedpicturesofadownedpylonandonewith
aholeblownthroughit.Theheadoftheanti-narcoticsdepartmentofUkrainesinteriorministry,IlyaKiva,whowasatthescene,
wroteonFacebook:Thepylonshavejustbeenblownup!!!
OnSaturday,thepylonswerethesceneofviolentclashesbetweenactivistsfromtheRightSectornationalistmovementand
paramilitarypolice,Ukrainianmediareported.UkrainiannationalistshavelongbeenagitatingforanenergyblockadeofCrimeato
exertpressureontheformerUkrainianterritory.
RussianstatemediareportedthattheenergyministryhadofferedtohelpfixthelinesbutwasrejectedbytheUkrainianauthorities,
whosaidtheycouldfixtheproblemthemselves.Theemergenciesministryhascreatedateamof3,000employeesand1,000
piecesofequipmenttofacilitatedailylivinginCrimea,thedeputyhead,AlexanderChupriyan,said.Hewarnedthatthepower
outagecouldcontinueforalongtime.
MikhailSheremet,firstdeputypremierofCrimea,saidthepeninsulacouldonlysupplyhalfitspowerneedsatmostusingdiesel
generatorsandrenewablesourcessuchaswindandsolarpower,theTassstatenewsagencyreported.Crimeaexperienced
severaltotalpowercutslastwinter,attributedbytheauthoritiestorepairsandtechnicalproblemsbutseenbyresidentsas
deliberatepressurefromUkraine.
RussiaplanstobuildtwopowerstationsinCrimeathatwouldburngaspipedfromthemainland,butthesearestillattheplanning
stage.Officialssaidtherewasenoughfueltokeepthegas-anddiesel-poweredgeneratorsrunning.
Crimeaprovidesonly30%ofitsownenergy,accordingtotheregionalgovernment,anddependsonUkraineformuchofits
electricitysupplies.
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkersstayhome-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,AylaBakkalli<aylabakkalli@yahoo.com>
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34899484
Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkers
stayhome
AFPCrimea'scapitalSimferopolwasplungedintodarkness
OnlyessentialservicesandgovernmentofficesareoperatinginCrimeaafterkeyelectricitypylons
connectedtothepeninsulawereknockeddowninUkraine,causingamajorblackout.
MostofCrimea'stwomillionpeoplehavebeenhitbythepowercut.Therearealsosomewatershortages.
Anti-Russianactivistswereblamedforthecut.RussianforcesannexedCrimeainMarch2014,duringUkraine's
crisis.
PublictransportisstillrunningandCrimeanhospitalsareusinggenerators.
AstateofemergencywasimposedinCrimeaonSundayaftertwomorekeypylonsweredamaged-bringingthe
totaltofour.Mondaywasdeclaredanon-workingday.
ItisstillnotclearhowexactlythepylonsweredamagedinKherson,aUkrainianregionadjacenttoCrimea.That
regionhasbeentensesinceRussia'sannexationofCrimea-anactthatwascondemnedinternationally.
CrimeanTataractivists,denyingrepairworkersaccesstothedamagedpowerlines,suggestedthattheweakened
pylonswereblowndownbythewind.
ButUkraine'sstateenergycompany,Ukrenergo,saidthedamagewascausedby"shellingortheuseofexplosive
devices".
ATatarsymbolwastiedaroundadamagedpyloninKherson
RussiahasblamedUkrainiannationalistsfromfar-rightpartyRightSectoraswellasCrimeanTataractivists,callingit
"anactofterrorism".
EarlierthisyearthoseactivistgroupspreventedfoodlorriescrossingintoCrimea.
Theblackouthasknockedoutstreetlightingandcutcableandmobileinternet.Ithasalsoforcedtheclosureofsome
150schools.
ACrimeanTataractivisttoldUkraine'sTVnewsbroadcaster112UkrayinathatRussiamustrelease"political
prisoners"andlettheirleaderMustafaDzhemilevreturntoCrimeainexchangeforrepairstothepowerlines.
ButlaterMrDzhemilev,leaderoftheCrimeanTatarNationalMovement,toldBBCUkrainianthathissupporters
wouldgrantrepairworkersaccesstothepowerlines."IthinkthatCrimeawillhaveelectricitysoon",hesaid.
Emergencytimetable
CrimeanTataractivistsaccuseRussiaofabusingTatarrightsanddenyingthemavoicesinceapro-Moscow
governmentwasinstalledinCrimea.
ImagesonsocialmediashowUkrainianflagsonsomedamagedpylons-andCrimeanTatarflagsonothers.
AnelectricalshopinSimferopolisamongmanybusinessestemporarilyshutdownbytheemergency
CrimeanauthoritiessaidtheyhadmanagedtopartiallyreconnectthecitiesofSimferopol,YaltaandSevastopolusing
generators.
Only30%ofCrimea'selectricityisgeneratedlocally-therestcomesfromUkraine,Russia'sgovernmentdaily
RossiiskayaGazetareported.
Emergencypower-savingmeasureshavebeenimposed:Sevastopolisgettingthreehours'supply,followedbyasix-
hourcutinSimferopolresidentshavethree-hourpowercutsthreetimesaday.
Ukrainianauthoritiessaidtheyencounteredactivistsblockadingthesitewhentheytriedtorepairthedamagedpylons.
Thepowercutisthreateningfoodoutletswhichrelyoncoldstorageandlackgeneratingcapacity.
Ahospitalworkersaidtheelectricitywassufficienttokeepwardswarmbutnottopowerhotplates,sopatients
wereonlygettingcoldfood.
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:ClaimofUkrainianweaponssaletoISISpromptsdenials,alarm
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
BTW,theNobelPrizesforGullibility.....goto.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/claim-of-ukrainian-weapons-sale-to-isis-prompts-denials-alarm-402511.html
From:GFR
Subject:ReadandWipe
To:<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
NOTE:
"Similar contradictions as Ambassador Ford noted are blatant in the case of Ukraine where containment
and encirclement US policies are bound to backfire in the absence of a political solution or ideological
foundation rooted in democratic principles rather than political opportunism intended for short-term
geopolitical and economic gains. Supporting neo-Nazis among other heterogeneous elements in the
Ukraine against the Russian-backed separatist elements is not merely a manifestation of an
incoherent foreign policy filled with contradictions and aimlessness for the democratic West, it
also reveals Washingtons desperate anachronistic Cold War solutions to 21st century problems
amid the slow decline of the US in relationship to China."
Creating"Terrorism":TheWesternQuestForSociopolitical
ConformityAndImperialism
ByJonKofas
21November,2015
Countercurrents.org
Introduction:IsterrorismIdeologically-Motivated?
Governments,politicians,themedia,andacademicsdefinetheterm
terrorisminaccordancewiththeirpoliticalaims.Similarly,those
engagedinunconventionalmethodsofwarfare(guerrillawar)havetheir
owndefinitionoftheiractivitiesthattheywoulddefineasfreedom
strugglefromsomeoppressor(s).Althoughthetermterrorbecame
popularduringtheFrenchRevolutionwhenMaximilenRobespierreand
Saint-Just(September1793untilJuly1794)unleashedacampaignknown
asTheReignofTerror,itwastheactivitiesoflate19thcentury
anarchistsinRussiaandEuropethattargetedpublicofficialsfor
assassinationasapoliticalstatementabouttheneedforpoliticaland
socialchange.
Actsofviolenceagainstinnocentciviliansnotpublicofficials-eitheras
collateraldamageordeliberatelyacceleratedinthe20thcenturybynon-
statesponsoredgroupsrangingfromtheextremerighttotheextremeleft
withtheintentionofmakingapoliticalstatement.Onecouldarguethat
theKuKluxKlanclearlycarriedoutactsofterrorwiththecooperationof
thecriminaljusticesystem(fromthesherifftothecourtsand
DepartmentofJustice).Similarly,actsofterrorhavebeensponsored
overtlyandcovertlybystates,andifoneconsidersthatthevastmajority
ofpeoplekilledinwarsareindeedcivilians,thebiggestsponsorofterror
isthestatesimplybecauseithasatitsdisposalthemeansfororganized
massdestructionthatsmallgroupssimplydonothave.Forexample,the
ThirdReichcarriedouttheholocaustbecauseithasthemeanstoso,asit
hadthemeanstoengageallofEurope,RussiaandUSinaglobalwar.
Yet,politicians,mediaandacademicsattributelegitimacytomass
killingsandexpressrageatsmallscaleindividualassassinationsby
terrorists.
Thetopicofterrorismhasbeenanalyzedtothepointofabsurdity.Yet,
despitesuchplethoraofliterature,EuropeanandUSpoliticianspromise
tobringyetanotherplantoendterrorismwhichhasbeenrisingever
sincetheUSlaunchedwaronterrorinOctober2001.AGooglesearch
withtermsterrorismyieldsalmost100millionresultsfighting
terrorismyields720,000resultsandendingterrorismyieldscloseto
45,000results.AnAmazonbooksearchwiththewordterrorismyields
39,640resultsonthetopic,whilefightingterrorismyields574results
andendingterrorism21.Thesedonotincludetheconfidentialstudies
byvariousagenciesofgovernmentsandconsultingfirmsworkingforfees
toprovideyetanothersolutiontoaproblemthatonlygrowsastime
passesandwillcontinuetogrowinwhathasbecomeathrivingindustry
paralleltopoliceandmilitaryoperations.
Whyisterrorism,astheUSanditsEUalliesdefineit,namelyIslamic-
inspiredgroupsorganizedinafighttocombatwhattheyregardasevil
regimesintheMiddleEast,theWest,AfricaandAsia,soprominentsince
theendoftheColdWar?Afterlookingatsomeoftheliteratureonthe
subject,onecouldarguethattheunderlyingcauseisideological,religious
dogmatismandculturalowingtoaclashofcivilizationstoborrowthat
favoriteconservativeandliberalWesternclichwithunderlyingracist
themesnotbytheauthorSamuelHuntingtonwhocameupwiththe
conceptbutonthepartofthoseinterpretingit.Theconservativesofthe
late18thandearly19thcenturyarguedpreciselyalongthesamelinesas
modernconservativesblamingideologywhentheytriedtoexplainwhy
theFrenchRevolutiontookplace.Similarly,conservativeandliberalsof
the20thcenturyarguedthatideologicalpoisoningofthemindsofrebels
droveRussianstobacktheBolsheviks,theChinesetobackMaoandthe
CubanstosupportFidel.
Ifyouareconservative,theonlymotivationofleftistrebelsorjihadist
terroristsattheotherendoftheideologicalspectrumisideological,
devoidofoppressivesocial,economicandpoliticalconditions,devoidofa
sensethatforeignpowerscompromisehomelandsnationalsovereignty.
AllonehastodotobecomeaJihadistterroristorforthatmattera
Marxistrebelistohaveideologicalexposureandthatwouldsufficeto
pickupaweaponandfightforthecausebecauseareligiousorsecular
ideologycallsforchangeinthestatusquo.Clearly,thisnaveperspective
fliesinthefaceofempiricalrealitywhenweexaminethatthepeoplewho
joinajihadiststruggledosobecausetheyaredrivenbydesperationof
theirlivescausedbytheirgovernmentandsocialelites(asisthecasein
muchofsub-SaharaAfrica),byaforeigngovernment(s)andforeign
corporations,orinstigatedandsupportedbycounter-insurgency
operationsofforeigngovernments(ashasbeenthecaseinSyria).
Religiousdogma,ideology,andcultureplayaroleinsofarastheyjustify
theirpositionandprovideacoherentwaytoarticulatethecauseand
placeitintoalargerperspective.Otherwisetheywouldmerelybesharp
shootersonthehunttotakedowninnocentpeopletoproveapolitical
point.Socioeconomicandpoliticaldomesticconditionsandexternal
interventionintendedtocontrolthroughlocalthecountrythroughlocal
elitesareattherootoftheproblemdrivingpeopletorebelsandunless
theseareaddressed,terrorismwillcontinuetoevolveandexpandfrom
onegrouptothenext.ListeningtoWesternpoliticiansonewouldassume
thattheywanttoendterrorism,althougheverythingtheyhavebeen
doing,notsaying,pointsthattheywantevenmoreterrorism.
Therearetwomainreasonswhyterrorismservesthestatusquoofthe
countriesostensiblyundertakinganti-terrorpolicies,althoughinreality
theyarepromotingterrorismonehastodowithdomesticaffairsandthe
secondwithforeignpolicy.
1.Acultureoffearcultivatedbypoliticians,themedia,andbusinessesto
engenderconformitytotheinstitutionalstructureisoneofthereasons
thatterrorismisconstantlypresentedasanexistentialthreatwhenin
realitytheaveragepersonhasamuchgreaterchanceofdyinginacar
accidentorbygun-violenceinthestreetsoftheUSorEurope.Ifpeople
acceptterrorismastherealnationalsecurityissueratherthansocial
justice,civilrights,extremesocioeconomicinequality,andapolitical
systeminclusiveofallpeopleandjustthetoptenpercentofthe
wealthiesttothedetrimentofthemajority,thenthesocialcontractand
statusquoremainunchanged.
2.Policiesofmilitarismandcovertoperationstodestabilizeregimesfor
thepurposeofgaininggeopoliticaladvantageandeconomicimperialism
isanotherreasontouseterrorismasthepretext,andinfacttocreateand
perpetuateit.DuringtheColdWar,theUSusedCommunismasan
existentialthreattoimposeitsroleastheworldspolicemanandexpand
economically,whileengenderingconformityathomeamidaquasi-
apartheidregimethatkeptminoritiesonthemarginsofsociety.TheCold
Warisoverandterrorismsimplytookitsplace,especiallysincetheUS-
EUeffortstorecreatetheColdWarwithRussiaovertheUkrainehave
turnedoutadismalfailureinthelasttwoyears.NotthatthewarinIraq
andAfghanistanaimedtoendterrorismworkedmuchbetter,andwe
mustjudgepolicybyresultsaloneandnotpopulistrhetoricandexcuses.
Inthelastanalysisaforeignpolicyrootedinimperialismcannotbe
justifiedunlessithasanEVILenemytoblameandforthepublictofear
andthisiswhereterrorismfitsinsowell.
HumanNatureandTerrorism
Peoplearenotbornterroristsanymorethantheyareimperialists
advocatingeconomic,politicalandstrategichegemonythatviolates
nationalsovereigntywiththeintenttosubjugateandexploit.Institutional
structurescreateterrorismasmuchasimperialismandthetwoare
intertwinedinmodernhistory,atleastfromthelate19thcenturywhen
Europeanimperialistswereusingconventionalmilitaryforceto
perpetuatetheirsubjugationoverthepeopleofAfricaandAsia(India,
China,Sudan,SouthAfrica,Philippines,tomentionjustafew).
IntheaftermathoftheIrishfamineintheaftermathoftheRevolutionsof
1848,theIrishstruggleforindependencethroughvariousorganizations
FenianBrotherhoodandIrishRepublicanBrotherhoodisindicativeof
militantsemployingunconventionalmeanstofightagainstBritish
imperialists.Similarly,therewerearmedanti-colonialstrugglesthatthe
BritishlabeledterroristintheSudanandEgypt(1880s-1890s)aswellas
SouthernAfrica,NigeriaandGhana.Paralleltotheanti-imperialist
strugglesinthenon-WesternWorld,therewerealsoterroristactivities
withintheWest,fromRussiatoEuropeandUSundertakenprimarilyby
anarchistswhobelievedthattargetedattacksonhigh-profilepublic
officialswouldpublicizetheircauseforsocialjusticeandbringabout
systemicchange.
Grantedittakesacertaintypeofpersonalitytoengageinunconventional
warfare,buttheaveragepersonisnotbynaturepronetokillinginnocent
civiliansforthesakeofrevengeandpublicityanymorethantheyare
interestedinmasskillingsthroughthelawfulcoverofagovernmentair
forceorarmy.Humanbeingswithinthecontextofaninstitutional
structurecanbecomepartofamasskillingmachine(armedforces),as
theycanjustaseasilybecomeinvolvedinterrorism,whichismerelyan
unconventionalformofwarbutlackinglegitimacy.Justasmanyofthose
engagedinconventionalwarcombatarementallyunstableifnot
sociopathsasthereareterroristswhoarejustasmentallyunbalanced.
However,aftertheParisbombing,oneoftheISISorISILoperativesthat
defectedexplainedtotheauthoritiesthereasonspeopleatthegrassroots
gravitatetowardthejihadistorganizationismainlyendemicpovertyin
SyriathatdidnotexistbeforetheUS,WesternandTurkish-Arab-backed
rebelmovement.
Evenwithallthedeathsandinjuriesthatterrorismhascreated,itis
estimatedthatinthe20thcenturybetween165millionand175million
peoplewerekilledinconventionalwarswheremostofthevictimsare
indeedcivilians.Howmanywerekilledbyterrorisminthelast100
years?Therearenoprecisestatistics,buttheynumberintothetensof
thousandsandnothundredsofmillions.EvenPresidentObamapointed
outinoneofhisspeechesthatterrorismhaskilledafewthousand
Americansinthelasttwodecades,whereasgunviolencehaseliminated
closeto350,000.
Infact,accordingtotheHeritageFoundation:From1969to2009,
almost5,600peoplelosttheirlivesandmorethan16,300people
sufferedinjuriesduetointernationalterrorismdirectedattheUnited
States.(http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/terror-
trends-40-years-data-on-international-and-domestic-terrorism).
AccordingtotheNewYorkTimes,from1968tothepresent,more
AmericanshavebeenkilledbygunviolencethaninallUSwars
combined.
(http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/aug/27/nicholas-
kristof/more-americans-killed-guns-1968-all-wars-says-colu/)
Despitethesestatistics,theUSmedia,politiciansandpunditsincessantly
perpetuateacultureoffear,projectingtheimpressionthattheaverage
citizenisthreatenedbyterrorismwheninfacttheaveragecitizenislikely
todiebygunviolenceinthehandsofsomementallyillorenraged
individual.Moreover,themedia,punditsandpoliticiansneverpointout
thatconventionalwarskillonamassivescale,thatgunviolenceisareal
existentialthreat,whileterrorismactivities,asreprehensibleand
loathsomeastheyare,killveryfewbycomparisonbecauseofthenature
oftheoperations.Nordotheyeveraddresstheunderlyingcausesof
terrorism,preferringinsteadtocultivateracistattitudesthatasegmentof
thepublicentertainsaboutMuslimsnomatterwhotheyare.
Realistically,isitpossibletostopterroristattacksinEuropeandtheUS,
usingmodernintelligenceandpolicemethods?
Ifitwerepossibletostopterroristattacks,whyhasitnothappenedsince
9/11,especiallywiththeinstitutionalizationofananti-terrorismvirtual
policestateintheUSthatsharesintelligencewithitsallies?Itis
completelyunderstandablethattheaveragepersoncriesoutforthe
governmenttojuststopterrorism,justastheycriedoutinthe1980sSay
NotoDrugsandthegovernmentdeclaredwarondrugs.HastheUS
wonthewarondrugs,awarthroughwhichmanybanksweremaking
immenseprofitslaunderingdrugmoney?AccordingtoHuffington:Bank
ofAmerica,WesternUnion,andJPMorgan,areamongtheinstitutions
allegedlyinvolvedinthedrugtrade.Meanwhile,HSBChasadmittedits
launderingrole,andevadedcriminalprosecutionbypayingafineof
almost$2billion.Thelackofimprisonmentofanybankersinvolvedis
indicativeofthehypocriticalnatureofthedrug
war.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/avinash-tharoor/banks-cartel-
money-laundering_b_4619464.html
Unlikeconventionalwarsbetweencountrieswithspecifictargetsand
throughconventionalmeans,terrorismisdispersedthroughoutthe
planetinmorethanone-thirdofthecountries.Immediatelyafterthe
Parisbombing,cameahitinnorthernNigeriabyBokoHaram,the
militantIslamicgroupactiveinNigeria,Niger,Cameroon,andChad.
Althoughthemediahardlydevotedanycoveragetoitbecausethevictims
werenotWesterners,theorganizationhasbeenactivesince2002.Isthe
waronterrorgoingtoeliminateBokoHaramaswellasNorthernMali
wherepro-al-QaedaIslamicrebelstookhostageson20November2015
justastheWestmakingpromisestoendterrorism?Iftherearean
estimate41countrieswithIslamicrebelsassomereportsindicate,where
exactlywouldtheUSanditsalliesbegintoendterrorismonaworldscale
withmorethanone-and-a-halfbillionMuslimsandgrowingatmuch
fasterratesthananyotherreligiousgroup?
ImmediatelyaftertheParisbombing,Chinaaskedforpoliticalsupportto
crushitsownmilitantMuslims,justasRussiademandedthatitsanti-
jihadistcampaignisjustified.BesidesgoingafterMuslimsinsouthern
Xinjiang,spreadingfear,repression,andviolence,theChinese
governmentalsohasbeenfightingtheUyghurmilitantsinthewestern
regionwhowanttocreateanindependentEastTurkestan.Arethe
Chineserepressingtheminoritiesoftheircountryandignoringhuman
rights,oraretheyfightingterrorism?IstheUSinterestedinhelping
Chinafightitsdomesticterrorists,orisitonlyinterestinginChina
backingUSeffortstodethronethepro-RussianAssadinSyriaandfight
againstselectjihadistsinSyriaandIraq?
Wheredoesthisabsurdgameofthewaronterrorbeginandwheredoes
itendinthe41countrieswithIslamicmilitants?DoestheWesternwaron
terrorstayfocusedonwhattheUSandEUwant,doesitincludewhat
RussiaandChinawant,doesitgofarthertoincludeAfricaandIndia?
Whodecides,whocarriesoutthesecostlycampaignsandwheredoesit
stopconsideringthenatureofterrorismisunconventionalandthenext
doorneighborcouldbeonedocarryoutanactdespiteRussian,US,and
Frenchplanesbombingspecifictargets.Onereasonthatpresidential
candidateHillaryClintonruledouttroopsonthegroundinSyria(19
November2015)isbecausesheknowsitwillendinpolitical,militaryand
economicfailurefortheUS,whilealienatingifnotradicalizingMuslims
acrosstheworld.
Ontheeveofthe13thanniversaryof9/11,presidentObamaaskedthe
AmericanpeopletosupporthiswaronISISoperatinginpartsofSyria
andIraq.IfwelookattherebelgroupsoperatinginSyriaagainstAssad
justtwoyearsago,thereweremorethan1000andnumberedroughly
100,000.Brokendown,however,wearestruckthattheyareeitherISIS,
al-Qaeda,pro-ISISorpro-al-Qaeda(al-NusraFront),withveryfewthat
arewithneitherISISnoral-Qaeda.Inotherwords,wherearethe
elementsforestablishingapro-Westmoderatedemocraticregimeinthis
country?Evenifafewofthemamidtheirstruggleprofesspro-US,pro-
Westleanings,whatguaranteesaretherethattheywillnotturnonthe
Westjustasdidal-QaedathattheUSassistedinthe1980sduringthewar
againsttheUSSRinAfghanistan,ormorerecentlyISISinthewaragainst
Syria.
Inhisspeechonthe13thanniversaryof9/11,Obamastated:This
counterterrorismcampaignwillbewagedthroughasteady,relentless
efforttotakeoutISILwherevertheyexistusingourairpowerandour
supportforpartnerforcesontheground.Whathehadinmindwas
dronewarfarethatmanyorganizationsandgovernmentshave
condemnedascausingindiscriminatedamageandkillingfarmore
innocentciviliansthanrebelsinAfghanistan,Pakistan,Yemen,Somalia
andothercountries.Forthiskindofwarthathasprovedcontroversial,if
notawarcrime,Obamaisaskingthesupportofthepeople,knowingfull
wellveryfewwoulddaretocriticizeanykindofwaragainstterrorism.
ClintonsupportsthisaswellandmanyRepublicanswouldhavethe
marineslandinSyriabecausetherecordshowsthatthingsworkedoutso
wellinIraqandAfghanistan!
TheObamapolicyisinessencearehashedBushpolicywithdronesand
covertoperationsthroughvariouslocalagents.Willthisachieveitsgoal,
orcreatemoreterrorismwhichistheunspokengoalbecauseitservesthe
political,economicanddiplomatic(balanceofpower)interestsoftheUS?
Theonlythingthatmattersisthatthepresidentandthegovernment
projectanimageofstrengthidentifiedwithmilitaryactionthatmakes
AmericansfeelsaferathomeandperhapsputthefearofGodin
Americasenemies.RightwingersandofcourseIsraelanditsAmerican
supportersbelievethatAmericamustdomoremilitarilytoteach
terroristsalesson-nodoubtalessonthatwouldonlycreatemore
terrorismasithasinthelastfifteenyears.Realityisnotimportantfor
thesepeopledrivenbyideology,racism,politicalopportunism,and
defenseindustrylobbyinginfluence.Theimageprojectedthroughthe
mediathattheyarefightingterrorismistheonlythingthatmatters.
IsHomelandSecurityrecollectionofdatafromallserversthebest
alternativetointerceptfutureattacksoraretheyotherwaystogetthejob
donemoreefficiently?
Itisincumbentuponanygovernmenttoprotectitscitizensfromthreats
domesticandforeign,whileworkingwithintheconstitutionalandlegal
framework.TheestablishmentofHomelandSecurityhasviolatedthe
constitutional(FourthAmendment-prohibitsunreasonablesearchesand
seizuresandrequiresanywarranttobejudiciallysanctionedand
supportedbyprobablecause)andlegalframework(openrecordslaw)as
wenowknowasaresultoftheEdwardSnowdenrevelations,whileithas
notdeterredterrorismonaglobalscale,althoughithashelpedtodeterit
uptoadegreedomestically.HomelandSecurityprojectstheimagethatit
isthesolutiontoaproblem.Moreover,HomelandSecurityisinessencea
pretexttostrengthenthepolicestatethattheUShasbecomesothatit
canjustifythecontinuationofthedyingPaxAmericanaandneoliberal
policiesthatcontinuetoweakenthesocialfabricathome.
Thekeyquestioniswhethertherehasbeenanincreaseordecreaseof
terrorisminthelastthirteenyearsthattheUShasbeenengagedinthis
globalcampaignatanenormouscosttotheUStaxpayersbycreating
HomelandSecurity.AccordingtotheNationalConsortiumfortheStudy
ofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)(Universityof
Maryland),terrorismincreasedinAsia,Africa,MiddleEastandona
globalscale.Manyhavereachedtheconclusionthatthewaronterror
feedsterrorismanditsincreasethroughouttheworld.Othersnotethat
theUSanditsalliesengagedinformalwaragainstterrorismkilling
thousandsofinnocentcivilians,injuringandmanymoremillionsof
displacedandimpoverishedpeoplethathavebecomerefugees.
TheHomelandSecurityfixisinlargemeasureanextensionofthe
military-industrialcomplexintendedtodishoutcontractstoprivate
companiesandtomaintaintheUSaquasi-policestate.Theideathat
moreandbettertechnologyisthesolutionisitselfanextensionofsuch
thinkingtodishoutbillionsoftaxpayerdollarstohightechcompaniesso
thatgovernmentcouldthenarguethatitprovidessecuritywheninfactit
isworkinghardtocreateinsecuritiesandstimulateevenmoreterrorism
thanwenowhavearoundtheworld.Onthesurface,thismayindeed
seemabsurd,butitmakessenseifexaminedfromtheperspectiveofthe
veryinfluentialcorporateintereststhathavearoleinpolicymakingand
wantnothingbetterthanmoregovernmentcontractsfortheircompanies
andthepublicsfocusonterrorismratherthanraisingtheminimumwage
andraisinglivingstandards.
HomelandSecurityplaysintothehandsofrightwingideologues,racists
andxenophobeswhatwantstrictimmigrationlaws,appliedina
discriminatorymanner,allinthenameofnationalsecurity.EvenObama
ridiculedtheideathatathree-yearSyrianorphanposesathreatto
rightwingxenophobeswhodonotwantMuslimscomingtotheUS.
Francehasalreadydecidednottocavetorightwingpressuresonthis
issueandtoaccept30,000refugeesinthenexttwoyearsasagreedwith
GermanyanditsEUpartners.TheFrenchgovernmentdidnotcavetothe
neo-FascistNationalFrontPartyledbyMarine.Migrantsbringfilth,
crime,povertyandIslamicterrorism,Ms.LePenhassuggestedinrecent
weeksadeadmigrantchildsphotowassimplyaploytomanipulate
Europeanfeelingsofguilt.Franceisabouttobesubmergedina
terrifyingwaveofmigrantswhorepresentonlya
burden.http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/for-
marine-le-pen-migration-is-a-ready-made-issue.html?_r=0
LedbythepopulistbillionaireTrump,theUSRepublicanpresidential
candidateshavetakenahardlineonimmigrantstowintherightwing
vote.ThattheRepublican-ledUSHouseofRepresentativespassed
xenophobicimmigrationreformblatantlyracistafewdaysaftertheParis
bombingisindicativeofthedirectionthatasegmentofthepoliticalelites
aretakingthepublic.Peoplearelookingforascapegoatinthetragedyof
SyrianmigrantsthattheUSanditsalliescausedinthefirstplaceby
destabilizingAssad.HavingabsolutelynothingtoshowforUSdirectand
indirectoperationsinSyria,largelybecauseRussia,ChinaandIranwould
notcaveintoUSpressures,thesolutionisracistandxenophobic
legislationagainstthevictimsofthewartheUSanditsalliescaused.
IfterroristsdetonatedanuclearbombinsideamajorcityinEuropeor
theUS,wouldgovernmentsconsideranexterminationrampage,
includingtheexpulsionofMuslimsinwesterncountries?
Terroristscanonlyobtainnuclearweaponsfromgovernments,whereas
conventionalweaponsaresoldbycommercialvendorsfortherightprice.
AccordingtotheUKpaperTheDailyMail:Isisareusingsignificant
quantitiesofUS-madeweaponstospreadtheirreignofterroracrossthe
MiddleEast,accordingtoanewreport.ThisfindingcamefromLondon-
basedresearchgroupConflictArmamentResearch(CAR)afterit
conductedon-the-groundinvestigationsinIraqandSyria.Itsbeen
knownforawhilethatIsishasbeenusingU.Smilitaryhardware,but
CARsstudyisthefirstbyanon-governmentbodytotryanddocumentin
detailwhathardwaretheterroristgroup,alsoknownastheIslamicState
(IS),isdeploying.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
2749197/ISIS-arming-US-military-hardware-wage-jihad-Middle-East-
seizing-weapons-Syrian-rebels-Iraqi-soldiers.html#ixzz3s20D4JCz
Justasterroriststodayobtainarms,trucks,andallkindsofsuppliesas
wellasmoneyfromgovernmentsandbusinessmen,similarlytheonly
waytosecureanuclearweaponwouldbefromoneofthenuclearclub
states.JustasISIShadbeenreceivingdirectandindirectsupportof
variouskindsfromthecountriesImentionedabove,includingtheUSand
UKlargelyresponsibleforitsgrowthandexpansion,similarlyfuture
terroristorganizationswouldenjoythesameprivilege.IfIsrael,Pakistan,
India,France,UKortheUSwantstocreatehavocintheMiddleEast,
givingjihadistsanuclearbombwouldachievethegoal.However,theroot
causeoftheproblemwouldbethegovernmentthatprovidedthenuclear
weapon.
Thisisextremelyunlikelyandonlyascenarioofrightwingpropaganda
wehavecometoexpectnotjustfromFOXNEWSthatISISparticularly
enjoysbecauseitservesitsgoalstorecruitandretainrebelsand
supporters,butmainstreammediapropagandaintendedtocultivatethe
cultureoffearamongthepublic.Itisjustanotherinaseriesofmythsso
thatpeoplearenotfocusedontheirimmediatelives,onrepayingthe
collegedebt,havinggovernmentraisetheminimumwageabovethe
povertyline,providingaffordablehousing,copskillingblackteenagers
everydayandjustifyingonthebasisoflawandorder.Nuclearbomb
threatscanonlycomefromthenuclearclubthathasthemandonlyif
oneoftheclubmemberswishestosinktheworldintochaoswouldwe
seeanuclearbombinthehandsofrebelgroups.
HasthemoderateMuslimworlddoneenoughtostopterroristnetworks
orcouldtheydoabetterjobtohelppreventattacks?
WhatisthemoderateMuslimWorldandwhoexactlydeterminesthe
criteria?IsitSaudiArabia,KuwaitandtheGulfStatesthathaveahistory
offinancingmilitantjihadists,includingISISwhilecloselyallying
themselveswiththeUS?Isitpro-USEgyptthatfailedtoprotectthe
RussianplanefromanISISbomb?IsitPakistanthathasbeenaUS
strategicsatelliteunderthegunandallalongplayingallsidesfromthe
ChinesetotheTaliban?IsitIraqandLibyathattheUSanditsalliesleft
inshamblesandcausedtherefugeeproblem?
Letusassumeforthesakeofargumentthattheanti-IslamistEgyptian
governmentconstitutesmoderatebecauseUStheArabdictatorshipsin
theGulfandIsraelfavorit.WhywasISISabletoplantasimplesodapop-
bombtobringdowntheRussianplaneandkill224passengers?Inthe
absenceofcooperationontheground,terroristattacksarenotpossibleat
anairport,andcooperationonthegroundmeansthatthereareenough
peoplesympathetictothejihadistcause.
ConsideringthattheonlystableandstrongMiddleEastIslamicregimeis
Iran,whichhasbeenwillingtocooperatewiththeUStocontainSunni
jihadists,doesWashingtonwantIrantoplaythepreeminentroleinthe
regionalbalanceofpower?DoesIranfitinwithWashingtonsbroader
goalsofperpetuallydestabilizingtheMiddleEastandusingIsraeltohelp
out?ConsideringthewaninginfluenceoftheUSintheregionagainstthe
realityofChinasrisingeconomicroleintheworld,Russiashistoricties
withcertaincountrieslikeSyria,Iransdominantregionalrole,why
woulddestabilizationnotmakesensesinceIsraelwantstheexactsame
thingastheWashington?
WhywouldMuslimgovernmentstakecomfortfromUSpolicyof
destabilizingandoverthrowingMiddleEast-NorthAfricanregimesso
thatitcouldexertpreeminenteconomic,militaryandstrategicinfluence
whenintheprocesschaosistheonlyresult?EvenifMuslimswantto
supporttheUSwaragainstISIS,howcantheydosowhentheUShasa
longhistoryofacrusadingforeignpolicytowardMuslimcountries,
exemptingthemoreauthoritarianSaudiArabiaandGulfStatesthathave
beenfundingISIS,whilestrikingselectivelyatregimesthattheUSwants
replaced.EvenaftertheParistragedy,theUSgoalremainstooverthrow
Assadandreplacehimwithapro-USpuppetinsteadofonebeholdento
RussiaandIran.
Assumingthereis100%popularandpoliticalsupportforObamas
versionoftheBushanti-terrorismpolicy,oreventheRepublicanversion
ofrevisitingtheIraqmodelofwarandoccupationinSyria,canthisbring
thedesiredgoalintofruition,orisitmerelyanotherpublicrelationsploy
onthepartofbothDemocratandRepublicanpoliticianswhocannotdeal
effectivelywithdomesticproblemslikeadecliningmiddleclassanda
massivepublicdebt?
Conclusions
DoUSpoliciesincreaseterrorismratherthandecreasingitasthe
governmentclaims?Wemustassumethatpolicymakersareverysmart
peoplewithexperiencewhoalsorelyonoutsideconsultantstoformulate
policy.Whilethiswouldbeasafeassumption,itisnotassafetovouchfor
theirmentalstability,theirblindingideologicalframeofmind,and
career-basedopportunismthattakeprecedenceovereverythingelse
fromhumanrightstosocialjustice.
Itissafetoassumethatthoseinpolicymaking,politicians,pundits,and
themediabelievethesameformulathatworkedinbringingdownthe
Communistblocwouldworkonendingterrorism,regardlessofthe
realitythatCommunistswereorganizedinstatesandemployed
conventionalmethodsjustasthoseopposingthem.Finally,itissafeto
assumethatthemoreastuteapologistsofthebogusanti-terrorism
industrythattheUShascreatedrealizeitisdoomedtofailandinfactto
bringaboutanincreaseinterrorism.
IwashardlysurprisedtoseearecentCNNreportclaimingthatISISloves
Westernmediabecauseitplaysintoitspropagandagoals.Theyare
especiallyappreciativeofFOXNEWSthatconstantlypreacheswarwith
Islamandbootsontheground,thusjustifyingthecallofISIStorecruit
Muslimstodefendtheirlandandtheirfaith.Absurdityslimitsdonot
stopwithJihadiststhattheWestpraiseswhentheyareinvolvedin
topplingaregimethattheUSopposesLibyaorSyria,forexample-but
baptizesterroristswhentheycarryoutpoliticalactsofviolenceagainst
Westernorpro-Westerntargets.
BecauseofsuchblatantabsurditiesinUSforeignpolicyrevealthe
ultimateinirrational,unconscionablesheerpoliticalopportunismand
totalabsenceofanymoralfoundation,RobertFord,formerUS
AmbassadortoSyria,hadwarnedthatUSpolicyassistinganti-Assad
Islamicmilitantswouldresultintheriseofterrorismthatcould
potentiallytouchUSinterests.AmbassadorFordnotedtheexampleof
Afghanistaninthe1980swhentheUStrainedJihadiststhatwould
eventuallyturnintoal-Qaeda.
SimilarcontradictionsasAmbassadorFordnotedareblatantinthecase
ofUkrainewherecontainmentandencirclementUSpoliciesareboundto
backfireintheabsenceofapoliticalsolutionorideologicalfoundation
rootedindemocraticprinciplesratherthanpoliticalopportunism
intendedforshort-termgeopoliticalandeconomicgains.Supportingneo-
NazisamongotherheterogeneouselementsintheUkraineagainstthe
Russian-backedseparatistelementsisnotmerelyamanifestationofan
incoherentforeignpolicyfilledwithcontradictionsandaimlessnessfor
thedemocraticWest,italsorevealsWashingtonsdesperate
anachronisticColdWarsolutionsto21stcenturyproblemsamidtheslow
declineoftheUSinrelationshiptoChina.
Onecouldarguethatthereisnogreatermachineofterrorthanthestate
thathasatitsdisposalthemassivemeansofthepoliceandmilitaryto
inflictmassivedamage,asInotedintheintroduction.Itisalso
noteworthytopointoutthatterrorizinganentirenationcanbecarried
outbynon-militarymechanisms,suchastheIMFrepresentingfinance
capitalhasatitsdisposalwhenimposingausterityandimpoverishesand
bankruptsmillionsofpeoplewithinaremarkablyshortperiod.Finally,
thereisalsothephenomenonofcorporateterrorism,mostprominently
demonstratedinColombiawhereUS-basedcorporationswerehiring
deathsquadstoassassinateandintimidatethepeasants.
AccordingtotheUN,andhumanrightsorganizations,leftwingkillings
carriedoutinColombiahaveaccountedfor12%ofclash-relatedfatalities,
whilerightwingparamilitarydeathsaccountfor80%,raisingthe
questionofwhoisbehindright-wingdeathsquadsandforwhatpurpose.
Similarly,thevastmajorityofdisappearancesandkidnappingsare
attributedtorightwingparamilitarygroupsthatareatthecoreofhuman
rightsviolationsinvariablyignoredbytheColombiangovernmentandthe
USthathashistoricallyclosetieswithColombia.Accordingtoanumber
ofpresreportsandhumanrightsorganizations,CocaColaBottling,
ChiquitaBananaandDrummondminingoperationsarethreecompanies
thathaveinthepastfinancedrightwingparamilitaryoperationsresulting
inkillings,disappearancesandpersecutionoftradeunionists,labor
organizersandleftistactivists.TheGermanTVnetworkDeutscheWella
recentlyranalongdocumentaryonthisissue,focusingmostlyon
DrummondanditsroleinColombia.Thiswastakingplaceduringthe
secondtermoftheBushadministrationandearlyyearsofObama,years
thatcoincidedwithUSglobalcampaignagainstIslamicterrorists,while
turningablindeyetoUScorporate-hiredterrorists.
WhentheforeignministerofSwedenproposedthatworkingtowarda
solutiontothePalestinianQuestioncouldhelpcontainterrorism,Israel
andtheWesternpresscondemnedsuchlinkage.Itisnosecrettothe
entireworldthatIsraelhasbeenterrorizingthePalestinianpeopleunder
apartheidconditionssince1948.ItisalsonosecretthatPalestiniansare
condemnedasterroristswhentheyarefightingforahomelandwhilethe
Israeliarmedforceskillingthemenmasseispresentedasdefendingits
security.Thistypeofhypocrisyisnotlostonpeople,includingmany
Jewsallovertheworld.Itisnavetoassumethatsimplysettlingonceand
forallthePalestinianQuestionwhilepursuingimperialistpoliciestoward
Islamiccountrieswouldsomehowendterrorism.
ThePalestinianQuestionmustbesettledonitsownmerits,eventhough
ithasreverberationsacrosstheentireIslamicworld.ThattheSwedish
foreignministerscommentswerecriticizedinsteadofembracedisjust
anotherillustrationthattheWesterncountriesledbytheUSwant
terrorismtocontinueandtothriveaslongastheyarenottheones
sufferingcasualtiesorhavingtoacceptrefugeesfleeingtheircountries
becausetheUSdestabilizedthem.Aslongascasualtiesandrefugeesare
confinedtoMuslimcountries,aswasthecaseinBeirutjustdaysbefore
theParisbombing,thenalliswellbecauseracismisaliveandwellinthe
ChristianWest.
Thedifferentlobbies,theideologues,andthecheerleadersofPax
Americanawillnotstopcheeringanymeasurethatonthesurface
appearstodealwithapoliticalproblemthroughmilitarymeans.The
withinthesystemcriticssuggestingbothamilitaryandpolitical
solutionarealwaysthereofferingtheso-calledliberalbalancein
democracy.Whatislackingisarealisticapproachbasedonthetrue
capabilitiesandlimitsofPaxAmericanaintheageofrisingAsian
economichegemony.Finally,istheUSinterestedinregimechange
becauseithasinmindthebestinterestsofthepeopleinthosecountriesit
destabilizes,wishingthemtohavegreatersocialjusticeandeconomic
wellbeing?Ifso,shouldnttheUSbefocusingonachievingthesesame
goalsathomeforitsowncitizens,especiallyminoritiesbutalsothe
weakermiddleclasssufferingdownwardmobilityinthelastthree
decades?
JonKofasisaretireduniversityProfessorfromIndianaUniversity.
Senttime: 11/23/201509:22:43AM
FW:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&Tatar
Subject:
BudsBlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&TatarBuds
BlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
From:VRT
Subject:Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
Guardian
Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
ExplosionsonFridayandSundaycutoffelectricitysupplyfromUkraine,forcingRussian-annexedpeninsulato
relyongenerators
Almost2millionCrimeanswereleftwithoutpowerandindarknessattheweekendafterunknownsaboteursblewuppowerlines
tothepeninsula,underscoringitscontinueddependenceonUkrainedespiteitsannexationbyRussialastyear.
AstateofemergencywasdeclaredafterfourpylonsthattransmitpowertoCrimeawereblownuponFridayandSaturdaynight.
Russiasenergyministryscrambledtorestoreelectricitytocitiesusinggenerators,butthemajorityofpeopleonthepeninsula
remainedpowerlessonSaturdaynight.
Cableandmobileinternetstoppedworking,thoughtherewasstillmobilephonecoverage,andwatersuppliestohigh-risebuildings
halted.
Theattacksthreatentocomplicatestill-volatilerelationsbetweenMoscowandKievafter18monthsofon-offconflictover
territoryintheeastofUkraine.CrimeawasannexedbyRussiain2014afteranarmedbutbloodlessintervention,butthe
territorysstatusremainsprecariousbecauseofitsrelianceonUkraine.
TheCrimeanprimeminister,SergeiAksyonov,calledthedestructionoftheelectricitysupplyaterroristact.Noonewillbring
Crimeanstotheirknees,wewontallowfornegotiations,hesaid.Wewontletanyonespeaktousinthelanguageof
blackmail.
TheCrimeanprosecutorgeneral,NatalyaPoklonskaya,saidacriminalcasewouldopenedoverthedestructionofthepowerlines
acrossthedefactoborderwithUkraine,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.
Alltheirmethods,alltheirdoingsfallundertheactionofapunishablecrime,shesaid.Mondayhasbeendeclaredaholidayin
Crimeaduetothepowersituation.
ThefourpylonswerefirstattackedonFridayinUkrainesKhersonregion.Explosionsdownedtwolinesanddamagedtheother
two.EarlyonSundayanotherexplosioncutallpowertoCrimea.Theidentityoftheattackerswasunclear.
AfterthefirstattackonFriday,Ukrenergo,Ukrainesstate-runenergycompany,postedpicturesofadownedpylonandonewith
aholeblownthroughit.Theheadoftheanti-narcoticsdepartmentofUkrainesinteriorministry,IlyaKiva,whowasatthescene,
wroteonFacebook:Thepylonshavejustbeenblownup!!!
OnSaturday,thepylonswerethesceneofviolentclashesbetweenactivistsfromtheRightSectornationalistmovementand
paramilitarypolice,Ukrainianmediareported.UkrainiannationalistshavelongbeenagitatingforanenergyblockadeofCrimeato
exertpressureontheformerUkrainianterritory.
RussianstatemediareportedthattheenergyministryhadofferedtohelpfixthelinesbutwasrejectedbytheUkrainianauthorities,
whosaidtheycouldfixtheproblemthemselves.Theemergenciesministryhascreatedateamof3,000employeesand1,000
piecesofequipmenttofacilitatedailylivinginCrimea,thedeputyhead,AlexanderChupriyan,said.Hewarnedthatthepower
outagecouldcontinueforalongtime.
MikhailSheremet,firstdeputypremierofCrimea,saidthepeninsulacouldonlysupplyhalfitspowerneedsatmostusingdiesel
generatorsandrenewablesourcessuchaswindandsolarpower,theTassstatenewsagencyreported.Crimeaexperienced
severaltotalpowercutslastwinter,attributedbytheauthoritiestorepairsandtechnicalproblemsbutseenbyresidentsas
deliberatepressurefromUkraine.
RussiaplanstobuildtwopowerstationsinCrimeathatwouldburngaspipedfromthemainland,butthesearestillattheplanning
stage.Officialssaidtherewasenoughfueltokeepthegas-anddiesel-poweredgeneratorsrunning.
Crimeaprovidesonly30%ofitsownenergy,accordingtotheregionalgovernment,anddependsonUkraineformuchofits
electricitysupplies.
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkersstayhome-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,AylaBakkalli<aylabakkalli@yahoo.com>
Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkers
stayhome
AFPCrimea'scapitalSimferopolwasplungedintodarkness
OnlyessentialservicesandgovernmentofficesareoperatinginCrimeaafterkeyelectricitypylons
connectedtothepeninsulawereknockeddowninUkraine,causingamajorblackout.
MostofCrimea'stwomillionpeoplehavebeenhitbythepowercut.Therearealsosomewatershortages.
Anti-Russianactivistswereblamedforthecut.RussianforcesannexedCrimeainMarch2014,duringUkraine's
crisis.
PublictransportisstillrunningandCrimeanhospitalsareusinggenerators.
AstateofemergencywasimposedinCrimeaonSundayaftertwomorekeypylonsweredamaged-bringingthe
totaltofour.Mondaywasdeclaredanon-workingday.
ItisstillnotclearhowexactlythepylonsweredamagedinKherson,aUkrainianregionadjacenttoCrimea.That
regionhasbeentensesinceRussia'sannexationofCrimea-anactthatwascondemnedinternationally.
CrimeanTataractivists,denyingrepairworkersaccesstothedamagedpowerlines,suggestedthattheweakened
pylonswereblowndownbythewind.
ButUkraine'sstateenergycompany,Ukrenergo,saidthedamagewascausedby"shellingortheuseofexplosive
devices".
ATatarsymbolwastiedaroundadamagedpyloninKherson
RussiahasblamedUkrainiannationalistsfromfar-rightpartyRightSectoraswellasCrimeanTataractivists,callingit
"anactofterrorism".
EarlierthisyearthoseactivistgroupspreventedfoodlorriescrossingintoCrimea.
Theblackouthasknockedoutstreetlightingandcutcableandmobileinternet.Ithasalsoforcedtheclosureofsome
150schools.
ACrimeanTataractivisttoldUkraine'sTVnewsbroadcaster112UkrayinathatRussiamustrelease"political
prisoners"andlettheirleaderMustafaDzhemilevreturntoCrimeainexchangeforrepairstothepowerlines.
ButlaterMrDzhemilev,leaderoftheCrimeanTatarNationalMovement,toldBBCUkrainianthathissupporters
wouldgrantrepairworkersaccesstothepowerlines."IthinkthatCrimeawillhaveelectricitysoon",hesaid.
Emergencytimetable
CrimeanTataractivistsaccuseRussiaofabusingTatarrightsanddenyingthemavoicesinceapro-Moscow
governmentwasinstalledinCrimea.
ImagesonsocialmediashowUkrainianflagsonsomedamagedpylons-andCrimeanTatarflagsonothers.
AnelectricalshopinSimferopolisamongmanybusinessestemporarilyshutdownbytheemergency
CrimeanauthoritiessaidtheyhadmanagedtopartiallyreconnectthecitiesofSimferopol,YaltaandSevastopolusing
generators.
Only30%ofCrimea'selectricityisgeneratedlocally-therestcomesfromUkraine,Russia'sgovernmentdaily
RossiiskayaGazetareported.
Emergencypower-savingmeasureshavebeenimposed:Sevastopolisgettingthreehours'supply,followedbyasix-
hourcutinSimferopolresidentshavethree-hourpowercutsthreetimesaday.
Ukrainianauthoritiessaidtheyencounteredactivistsblockadingthesitewhentheytriedtorepairthedamagedpylons.
Thepowercutisthreateningfoodoutletswhichrelyoncoldstorageandlackgeneratingcapacity.
Ahospitalworkersaidtheelectricitywassufficienttokeepwardswarmbutnottopowerhotplates,sopatients
wereonlygettingcoldfood.
Subject:ClaimofUkrainianweaponssaletoISISpromptsdenials,alarm
BTW,theNobelPrizesforGullibility.....goto.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/claim-of-ukrainian-weapons-sale-to-isis-prompts-denials-alarm-402511.html
From:GFR
Subject:ReadandWipe
To:<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
NOTE:
"Similar contradictions as Ambassador Ford noted are blatant in the case of Ukraine where containment
and encirclement US policies are bound to backfire in the absence of a political solution or ideological
foundation rooted in democratic principles rather than political opportunism intended for short-term
geopolitical and economic gains. Supporting neo-Nazis among other heterogeneous elements in the
Ukraine against the Russian-backed separatist elements is not merely a manifestation of an
incoherent foreign policy filled with contradictions and aimlessness for the democratic West, it
also reveals Washingtons desperate anachronistic Cold War solutions to 21st century problems
amid the slow decline of the US in relationship to China."
Creating"Terrorism":TheWesternQuestForSociopolitical
ConformityAndImperialism
ByJonKofas
21November,2015
Countercurrents.org
Introduction:IsterrorismIdeologically-Motivated?
Governments,politicians,themedia,andacademicsdefinetheterm
terrorisminaccordancewiththeirpoliticalaims.Similarly,those
engagedinunconventionalmethodsofwarfare(guerrillawar)havetheir
owndefinitionoftheiractivitiesthattheywoulddefineasfreedom
strugglefromsomeoppressor(s).Althoughthetermterrorbecame
popularduringtheFrenchRevolutionwhenMaximilenRobespierreand
Saint-Just(September1793untilJuly1794)unleashedacampaignknown
asTheReignofTerror,itwastheactivitiesoflate19thcentury
anarchistsinRussiaandEuropethattargetedpublicofficialsfor
assassinationasapoliticalstatementabouttheneedforpoliticaland
socialchange.
Actsofviolenceagainstinnocentciviliansnotpublicofficials-eitheras
collateraldamageordeliberatelyacceleratedinthe20thcenturybynon-
statesponsoredgroupsrangingfromtheextremerighttotheextremeleft
withtheintentionofmakingapoliticalstatement.Onecouldarguethat
theKuKluxKlanclearlycarriedoutactsofterrorwiththecooperationof
thecriminaljusticesystem(fromthesherifftothecourtsand
DepartmentofJustice).Similarly,actsofterrorhavebeensponsored
overtlyandcovertlybystates,andifoneconsidersthatthevastmajority
ofpeoplekilledinwarsareindeedcivilians,thebiggestsponsorofterror
isthestatesimplybecauseithasatitsdisposalthemeansfororganized
massdestructionthatsmallgroupssimplydonothave.Forexample,the
ThirdReichcarriedouttheholocaustbecauseithasthemeanstoso,asit
hadthemeanstoengageallofEurope,RussiaandUSinaglobalwar.
Yet,politicians,mediaandacademicsattributelegitimacytomass
killingsandexpressrageatsmallscaleindividualassassinationsby
terrorists.
Thetopicofterrorismhasbeenanalyzedtothepointofabsurdity.Yet,
despitesuchplethoraofliterature,EuropeanandUSpoliticianspromise
tobringyetanotherplantoendterrorismwhichhasbeenrisingever
sincetheUSlaunchedwaronterrorinOctober2001.AGooglesearch
withtermsterrorismyieldsalmost100millionresultsfighting
terrorismyields720,000resultsandendingterrorismyieldscloseto
45,000results.AnAmazonbooksearchwiththewordterrorismyields
39,640resultsonthetopic,whilefightingterrorismyields574results
andendingterrorism21.Thesedonotincludetheconfidentialstudies
byvariousagenciesofgovernmentsandconsultingfirmsworkingforfees
toprovideyetanothersolutiontoaproblemthatonlygrowsastime
passesandwillcontinuetogrowinwhathasbecomeathrivingindustry
paralleltopoliceandmilitaryoperations.
Whyisterrorism,astheUSanditsEUalliesdefineit,namelyIslamic-
inspiredgroupsorganizedinafighttocombatwhattheyregardasevil
regimesintheMiddleEast,theWest,AfricaandAsia,soprominentsince
theendoftheColdWar?Afterlookingatsomeoftheliteratureonthe
subject,onecouldarguethattheunderlyingcauseisideological,religious
dogmatismandculturalowingtoaclashofcivilizationstoborrowthat
favoriteconservativeandliberalWesternclichwithunderlyingracist
themesnotbytheauthorSamuelHuntingtonwhocameupwiththe
conceptbutonthepartofthoseinterpretingit.Theconservativesofthe
late18thandearly19thcenturyarguedpreciselyalongthesamelinesas
modernconservativesblamingideologywhentheytriedtoexplainwhy
theFrenchRevolutiontookplace.Similarly,conservativeandliberalsof
the20thcenturyarguedthatideologicalpoisoningofthemindsofrebels
droveRussianstobacktheBolsheviks,theChinesetobackMaoandthe
CubanstosupportFidel.
Ifyouareconservative,theonlymotivationofleftistrebelsorjihadist
terroristsattheotherendoftheideologicalspectrumisideological,
devoidofoppressivesocial,economicandpoliticalconditions,devoidofa
sensethatforeignpowerscompromisehomelandsnationalsovereignty.
AllonehastodotobecomeaJihadistterroristorforthatmattera
Marxistrebelistohaveideologicalexposureandthatwouldsufficeto
pickupaweaponandfightforthecausebecauseareligiousorsecular
ideologycallsforchangeinthestatusquo.Clearly,thisnaveperspective
fliesinthefaceofempiricalrealitywhenweexaminethatthepeoplewho
joinajihadiststruggledosobecausetheyaredrivenbydesperationof
theirlivescausedbytheirgovernmentandsocialelites(asisthecasein
muchofsub-SaharaAfrica),byaforeigngovernment(s)andforeign
corporations,orinstigatedandsupportedbycounter-insurgency
operationsofforeigngovernments(ashasbeenthecaseinSyria).
Religiousdogma,ideology,andcultureplayaroleinsofarastheyjustify
theirpositionandprovideacoherentwaytoarticulatethecauseand
placeitintoalargerperspective.Otherwisetheywouldmerelybesharp
shootersonthehunttotakedowninnocentpeopletoproveapolitical
point.Socioeconomicandpoliticaldomesticconditionsandexternal
interventionintendedtocontrolthroughlocalthecountrythroughlocal
elitesareattherootoftheproblemdrivingpeopletorebelsandunless
theseareaddressed,terrorismwillcontinuetoevolveandexpandfrom
onegrouptothenext.ListeningtoWesternpoliticiansonewouldassume
thattheywanttoendterrorism,althougheverythingtheyhavebeen
doing,notsaying,pointsthattheywantevenmoreterrorism.
Therearetwomainreasonswhyterrorismservesthestatusquoofthe
countriesostensiblyundertakinganti-terrorpolicies,althoughinreality
theyarepromotingterrorismonehastodowithdomesticaffairsandthe
secondwithforeignpolicy.
1.Acultureoffearcultivatedbypoliticians,themedia,andbusinessesto
engenderconformitytotheinstitutionalstructureisoneofthereasons
thatterrorismisconstantlypresentedasanexistentialthreatwhenin
realitytheaveragepersonhasamuchgreaterchanceofdyinginacar
accidentorbygun-violenceinthestreetsoftheUSorEurope.Ifpeople
acceptterrorismastherealnationalsecurityissueratherthansocial
justice,civilrights,extremesocioeconomicinequality,andapolitical
systeminclusiveofallpeopleandjustthetoptenpercentofthe
wealthiesttothedetrimentofthemajority,thenthesocialcontractand
statusquoremainunchanged.
2.Policiesofmilitarismandcovertoperationstodestabilizeregimesfor
thepurposeofgaininggeopoliticaladvantageandeconomicimperialism
isanotherreasontouseterrorismasthepretext,andinfacttocreateand
perpetuateit.DuringtheColdWar,theUSusedCommunismasan
existentialthreattoimposeitsroleastheworldspolicemanandexpand
economically,whileengenderingconformityathomeamidaquasi-
apartheidregimethatkeptminoritiesonthemarginsofsociety.TheCold
Warisoverandterrorismsimplytookitsplace,especiallysincetheUS-
EUeffortstorecreatetheColdWarwithRussiaovertheUkrainehave
turnedoutadismalfailureinthelasttwoyears.NotthatthewarinIraq
andAfghanistanaimedtoendterrorismworkedmuchbetter,andwe
mustjudgepolicybyresultsaloneandnotpopulistrhetoricandexcuses.
Inthelastanalysisaforeignpolicyrootedinimperialismcannotbe
justifiedunlessithasanEVILenemytoblameandforthepublictofear
andthisiswhereterrorismfitsinsowell.
HumanNatureandTerrorism
Peoplearenotbornterroristsanymorethantheyareimperialists
advocatingeconomic,politicalandstrategichegemonythatviolates
nationalsovereigntywiththeintenttosubjugateandexploit.Institutional
structurescreateterrorismasmuchasimperialismandthetwoare
intertwinedinmodernhistory,atleastfromthelate19thcenturywhen
Europeanimperialistswereusingconventionalmilitaryforceto
perpetuatetheirsubjugationoverthepeopleofAfricaandAsia(India,
China,Sudan,SouthAfrica,Philippines,tomentionjustafew).
IntheaftermathoftheIrishfamineintheaftermathoftheRevolutionsof
1848,theIrishstruggleforindependencethroughvariousorganizations
FenianBrotherhoodandIrishRepublicanBrotherhoodisindicativeof
militantsemployingunconventionalmeanstofightagainstBritish
imperialists.Similarly,therewerearmedanti-colonialstrugglesthatthe
BritishlabeledterroristintheSudanandEgypt(1880s-1890s)aswellas
SouthernAfrica,NigeriaandGhana.Paralleltotheanti-imperialist
strugglesinthenon-WesternWorld,therewerealsoterroristactivities
withintheWest,fromRussiatoEuropeandUSundertakenprimarilyby
anarchistswhobelievedthattargetedattacksonhigh-profilepublic
officialswouldpublicizetheircauseforsocialjusticeandbringabout
systemicchange.
Grantedittakesacertaintypeofpersonalitytoengageinunconventional
warfare,buttheaveragepersonisnotbynaturepronetokillinginnocent
civiliansforthesakeofrevengeandpublicityanymorethantheyare
interestedinmasskillingsthroughthelawfulcoverofagovernmentair
forceorarmy.Humanbeingswithinthecontextofaninstitutional
structurecanbecomepartofamasskillingmachine(armedforces),as
theycanjustaseasilybecomeinvolvedinterrorism,whichismerelyan
unconventionalformofwarbutlackinglegitimacy.Justasmanyofthose
engagedinconventionalwarcombatarementallyunstableifnot
sociopathsasthereareterroristswhoarejustasmentallyunbalanced.
However,aftertheParisbombing,oneoftheISISorISILoperativesthat
defectedexplainedtotheauthoritiesthereasonspeopleatthegrassroots
gravitatetowardthejihadistorganizationismainlyendemicpovertyin
SyriathatdidnotexistbeforetheUS,WesternandTurkish-Arab-backed
rebelmovement.
Evenwithallthedeathsandinjuriesthatterrorismhascreated,itis
estimatedthatinthe20thcenturybetween165millionand175million
peoplewerekilledinconventionalwarswheremostofthevictimsare
indeedcivilians.Howmanywerekilledbyterrorisminthelast100
years?Therearenoprecisestatistics,buttheynumberintothetensof
thousandsandnothundredsofmillions.EvenPresidentObamapointed
outinoneofhisspeechesthatterrorismhaskilledafewthousand
Americansinthelasttwodecades,whereasgunviolencehaseliminated
closeto350,000.
Infact,accordingtotheHeritageFoundation:From1969to2009,
almost5,600peoplelosttheirlivesandmorethan16,300people
sufferedinjuriesduetointernationalterrorismdirectedattheUnited
States.(http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/terror-
trends-40-years-data-on-international-and-domestic-terrorism).
AccordingtotheNewYorkTimes,from1968tothepresent,more
AmericanshavebeenkilledbygunviolencethaninallUSwars
combined.
(http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/aug/27/nicholas-
kristof/more-americans-killed-guns-1968-all-wars-says-colu/)
Despitethesestatistics,theUSmedia,politiciansandpunditsincessantly
perpetuateacultureoffear,projectingtheimpressionthattheaverage
citizenisthreatenedbyterrorismwheninfacttheaveragecitizenislikely
todiebygunviolenceinthehandsofsomementallyillorenraged
individual.Moreover,themedia,punditsandpoliticiansneverpointout
thatconventionalwarskillonamassivescale,thatgunviolenceisareal
existentialthreat,whileterrorismactivities,asreprehensibleand
loathsomeastheyare,killveryfewbycomparisonbecauseofthenature
oftheoperations.Nordotheyeveraddresstheunderlyingcausesof
terrorism,preferringinsteadtocultivateracistattitudesthatasegmentof
thepublicentertainsaboutMuslimsnomatterwhotheyare.
Realistically,isitpossibletostopterroristattacksinEuropeandtheUS,
usingmodernintelligenceandpolicemethods?
Ifitwerepossibletostopterroristattacks,whyhasitnothappenedsince
9/11,especiallywiththeinstitutionalizationofananti-terrorismvirtual
policestateintheUSthatsharesintelligencewithitsallies?Itis
completelyunderstandablethattheaveragepersoncriesoutforthe
governmenttojuststopterrorism,justastheycriedoutinthe1980sSay
NotoDrugsandthegovernmentdeclaredwarondrugs.HastheUS
wonthewarondrugs,awarthroughwhichmanybanksweremaking
immenseprofitslaunderingdrugmoney?AccordingtoHuffington:Bank
ofAmerica,WesternUnion,andJPMorgan,areamongtheinstitutions
allegedlyinvolvedinthedrugtrade.Meanwhile,HSBChasadmittedits
launderingrole,andevadedcriminalprosecutionbypayingafineof
almost$2billion.Thelackofimprisonmentofanybankersinvolvedis
indicativeofthehypocriticalnatureofthedrug
war.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/avinash-tharoor/banks-cartel-
money-laundering_b_4619464.html
Unlikeconventionalwarsbetweencountrieswithspecifictargetsand
throughconventionalmeans,terrorismisdispersedthroughoutthe
planetinmorethanone-thirdofthecountries.Immediatelyafterthe
Parisbombing,cameahitinnorthernNigeriabyBokoHaram,the
militantIslamicgroupactiveinNigeria,Niger,Cameroon,andChad.
Althoughthemediahardlydevotedanycoveragetoitbecausethevictims
werenotWesterners,theorganizationhasbeenactivesince2002.Isthe
waronterrorgoingtoeliminateBokoHaramaswellasNorthernMali
wherepro-al-QaedaIslamicrebelstookhostageson20November2015
justastheWestmakingpromisestoendterrorism?Iftherearean
estimate41countrieswithIslamicrebelsassomereportsindicate,where
exactlywouldtheUSanditsalliesbegintoendterrorismonaworldscale
withmorethanone-and-a-halfbillionMuslimsandgrowingatmuch
fasterratesthananyotherreligiousgroup?
ImmediatelyaftertheParisbombing,Chinaaskedforpoliticalsupportto
crushitsownmilitantMuslims,justasRussiademandedthatitsanti-
jihadistcampaignisjustified.BesidesgoingafterMuslimsinsouthern
Xinjiang,spreadingfear,repression,andviolence,theChinese
governmentalsohasbeenfightingtheUyghurmilitantsinthewestern
regionwhowanttocreateanindependentEastTurkestan.Arethe
Chineserepressingtheminoritiesoftheircountryandignoringhuman
rights,oraretheyfightingterrorism?IstheUSinterestedinhelping
Chinafightitsdomesticterrorists,orisitonlyinterestinginChina
backingUSeffortstodethronethepro-RussianAssadinSyriaandfight
againstselectjihadistsinSyriaandIraq?
Wheredoesthisabsurdgameofthewaronterrorbeginandwheredoes
itendinthe41countrieswithIslamicmilitants?DoestheWesternwaron
terrorstayfocusedonwhattheUSandEUwant,doesitincludewhat
RussiaandChinawant,doesitgofarthertoincludeAfricaandIndia?
Whodecides,whocarriesoutthesecostlycampaignsandwheredoesit
stopconsideringthenatureofterrorismisunconventionalandthenext
doorneighborcouldbeonedocarryoutanactdespiteRussian,US,and
Frenchplanesbombingspecifictargets.Onereasonthatpresidential
candidateHillaryClintonruledouttroopsonthegroundinSyria(19
November2015)isbecausesheknowsitwillendinpolitical,militaryand
economicfailurefortheUS,whilealienatingifnotradicalizingMuslims
acrosstheworld.
Ontheeveofthe13thanniversaryof9/11,presidentObamaaskedthe
AmericanpeopletosupporthiswaronISISoperatinginpartsofSyria
andIraq.IfwelookattherebelgroupsoperatinginSyriaagainstAssad
justtwoyearsago,thereweremorethan1000andnumberedroughly
100,000.Brokendown,however,wearestruckthattheyareeitherISIS,
al-Qaeda,pro-ISISorpro-al-Qaeda(al-NusraFront),withveryfewthat
arewithneitherISISnoral-Qaeda.Inotherwords,wherearethe
elementsforestablishingapro-Westmoderatedemocraticregimeinthis
country?Evenifafewofthemamidtheirstruggleprofesspro-US,pro-
Westleanings,whatguaranteesaretherethattheywillnotturnonthe
Westjustasdidal-QaedathattheUSassistedinthe1980sduringthewar
againsttheUSSRinAfghanistan,ormorerecentlyISISinthewaragainst
Syria.
Inhisspeechonthe13thanniversaryof9/11,Obamastated:This
counterterrorismcampaignwillbewagedthroughasteady,relentless
efforttotakeoutISILwherevertheyexistusingourairpowerandour
supportforpartnerforcesontheground.Whathehadinmindwas
dronewarfarethatmanyorganizationsandgovernmentshave
condemnedascausingindiscriminatedamageandkillingfarmore
innocentciviliansthanrebelsinAfghanistan,Pakistan,Yemen,Somalia
andothercountries.Forthiskindofwarthathasprovedcontroversial,if
notawarcrime,Obamaisaskingthesupportofthepeople,knowingfull
wellveryfewwoulddaretocriticizeanykindofwaragainstterrorism.
ClintonsupportsthisaswellandmanyRepublicanswouldhavethe
marineslandinSyriabecausetherecordshowsthatthingsworkedoutso
wellinIraqandAfghanistan!
TheObamapolicyisinessencearehashedBushpolicywithdronesand
covertoperationsthroughvariouslocalagents.Willthisachieveitsgoal,
orcreatemoreterrorismwhichistheunspokengoalbecauseitservesthe
political,economicanddiplomatic(balanceofpower)interestsoftheUS?
Theonlythingthatmattersisthatthepresidentandthegovernment
projectanimageofstrengthidentifiedwithmilitaryactionthatmakes
AmericansfeelsaferathomeandperhapsputthefearofGodin
Americasenemies.RightwingersandofcourseIsraelanditsAmerican
supportersbelievethatAmericamustdomoremilitarilytoteach
terroristsalesson-nodoubtalessonthatwouldonlycreatemore
terrorismasithasinthelastfifteenyears.Realityisnotimportantfor
thesepeopledrivenbyideology,racism,politicalopportunism,and
defenseindustrylobbyinginfluence.Theimageprojectedthroughthe
mediathattheyarefightingterrorismistheonlythingthatmatters.
IsHomelandSecurityrecollectionofdatafromallserversthebest
alternativetointerceptfutureattacksoraretheyotherwaystogetthejob
donemoreefficiently?
Itisincumbentuponanygovernmenttoprotectitscitizensfromthreats
domesticandforeign,whileworkingwithintheconstitutionalandlegal
framework.TheestablishmentofHomelandSecurityhasviolatedthe
constitutional(FourthAmendment-prohibitsunreasonablesearchesand
seizuresandrequiresanywarranttobejudiciallysanctionedand
supportedbyprobablecause)andlegalframework(openrecordslaw)as
wenowknowasaresultoftheEdwardSnowdenrevelations,whileithas
notdeterredterrorismonaglobalscale,althoughithashelpedtodeterit
uptoadegreedomestically.HomelandSecurityprojectstheimagethatit
isthesolutiontoaproblem.Moreover,HomelandSecurityisinessencea
pretexttostrengthenthepolicestatethattheUShasbecomesothatit
canjustifythecontinuationofthedyingPaxAmericanaandneoliberal
policiesthatcontinuetoweakenthesocialfabricathome.
Thekeyquestioniswhethertherehasbeenanincreaseordecreaseof
terrorisminthelastthirteenyearsthattheUShasbeenengagedinthis
globalcampaignatanenormouscosttotheUStaxpayersbycreating
HomelandSecurity.AccordingtotheNationalConsortiumfortheStudy
ofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)(Universityof
Maryland),terrorismincreasedinAsia,Africa,MiddleEastandona
globalscale.Manyhavereachedtheconclusionthatthewaronterror
feedsterrorismanditsincreasethroughouttheworld.Othersnotethat
theUSanditsalliesengagedinformalwaragainstterrorismkilling
thousandsofinnocentcivilians,injuringandmanymoremillionsof
displacedandimpoverishedpeoplethathavebecomerefugees.
TheHomelandSecurityfixisinlargemeasureanextensionofthe
military-industrialcomplexintendedtodishoutcontractstoprivate
companiesandtomaintaintheUSaquasi-policestate.Theideathat
moreandbettertechnologyisthesolutionisitselfanextensionofsuch
thinkingtodishoutbillionsoftaxpayerdollarstohightechcompaniesso
thatgovernmentcouldthenarguethatitprovidessecuritywheninfactit
isworkinghardtocreateinsecuritiesandstimulateevenmoreterrorism
thanwenowhavearoundtheworld.Onthesurface,thismayindeed
seemabsurd,butitmakessenseifexaminedfromtheperspectiveofthe
veryinfluentialcorporateintereststhathavearoleinpolicymakingand
wantnothingbetterthanmoregovernmentcontractsfortheircompanies
andthepublicsfocusonterrorismratherthanraisingtheminimumwage
andraisinglivingstandards.
HomelandSecurityplaysintothehandsofrightwingideologues,racists
andxenophobeswhatwantstrictimmigrationlaws,appliedina
discriminatorymanner,allinthenameofnationalsecurity.EvenObama
ridiculedtheideathatathree-yearSyrianorphanposesathreatto
rightwingxenophobeswhodonotwantMuslimscomingtotheUS.
Francehasalreadydecidednottocavetorightwingpressuresonthis
issueandtoaccept30,000refugeesinthenexttwoyearsasagreedwith
GermanyanditsEUpartners.TheFrenchgovernmentdidnotcavetothe
neo-FascistNationalFrontPartyledbyMarine.Migrantsbringfilth,
crime,povertyandIslamicterrorism,Ms.LePenhassuggestedinrecent
weeksadeadmigrantchildsphotowassimplyaploytomanipulate
Europeanfeelingsofguilt.Franceisabouttobesubmergedina
terrifyingwaveofmigrantswhorepresentonlya
burden.http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/for-
marine-le-pen-migration-is-a-ready-made-issue.html?_r=0
LedbythepopulistbillionaireTrump,theUSRepublicanpresidential
candidateshavetakenahardlineonimmigrantstowintherightwing
vote.ThattheRepublican-ledUSHouseofRepresentativespassed
xenophobicimmigrationreformblatantlyracistafewdaysaftertheParis
bombingisindicativeofthedirectionthatasegmentofthepoliticalelites
aretakingthepublic.Peoplearelookingforascapegoatinthetragedyof
SyrianmigrantsthattheUSanditsalliescausedinthefirstplaceby
destabilizingAssad.HavingabsolutelynothingtoshowforUSdirectand
indirectoperationsinSyria,largelybecauseRussia,ChinaandIranwould
notcaveintoUSpressures,thesolutionisracistandxenophobic
legislationagainstthevictimsofthewartheUSanditsalliescaused.
IfterroristsdetonatedanuclearbombinsideamajorcityinEuropeor
theUS,wouldgovernmentsconsideranexterminationrampage,
includingtheexpulsionofMuslimsinwesterncountries?
Terroristscanonlyobtainnuclearweaponsfromgovernments,whereas
conventionalweaponsaresoldbycommercialvendorsfortherightprice.
AccordingtotheUKpaperTheDailyMail:Isisareusingsignificant
quantitiesofUS-madeweaponstospreadtheirreignofterroracrossthe
MiddleEast,accordingtoanewreport.ThisfindingcamefromLondon-
basedresearchgroupConflictArmamentResearch(CAR)afterit
conductedon-the-groundinvestigationsinIraqandSyria.Itsbeen
knownforawhilethatIsishasbeenusingU.Smilitaryhardware,but
CARsstudyisthefirstbyanon-governmentbodytotryanddocumentin
detailwhathardwaretheterroristgroup,alsoknownastheIslamicState
(IS),isdeploying.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
2749197/ISIS-arming-US-military-hardware-wage-jihad-Middle-East-
seizing-weapons-Syrian-rebels-Iraqi-soldiers.html#ixzz3s20D4JCz
Justasterroriststodayobtainarms,trucks,andallkindsofsuppliesas
wellasmoneyfromgovernmentsandbusinessmen,similarlytheonly
waytosecureanuclearweaponwouldbefromoneofthenuclearclub
states.JustasISIShadbeenreceivingdirectandindirectsupportof
variouskindsfromthecountriesImentionedabove,includingtheUSand
UKlargelyresponsibleforitsgrowthandexpansion,similarlyfuture
terroristorganizationswouldenjoythesameprivilege.IfIsrael,Pakistan,
India,France,UKortheUSwantstocreatehavocintheMiddleEast,
givingjihadistsanuclearbombwouldachievethegoal.However,theroot
causeoftheproblemwouldbethegovernmentthatprovidedthenuclear
weapon.
Thisisextremelyunlikelyandonlyascenarioofrightwingpropaganda
wehavecometoexpectnotjustfromFOXNEWSthatISISparticularly
enjoysbecauseitservesitsgoalstorecruitandretainrebelsand
supporters,butmainstreammediapropagandaintendedtocultivatethe
cultureoffearamongthepublic.Itisjustanotherinaseriesofmythsso
thatpeoplearenotfocusedontheirimmediatelives,onrepayingthe
collegedebt,havinggovernmentraisetheminimumwageabovethe
povertyline,providingaffordablehousing,copskillingblackteenagers
everydayandjustifyingonthebasisoflawandorder.Nuclearbomb
threatscanonlycomefromthenuclearclubthathasthemandonlyif
oneoftheclubmemberswishestosinktheworldintochaoswouldwe
seeanuclearbombinthehandsofrebelgroups.
HasthemoderateMuslimworlddoneenoughtostopterroristnetworks
orcouldtheydoabetterjobtohelppreventattacks?
WhatisthemoderateMuslimWorldandwhoexactlydeterminesthe
criteria?IsitSaudiArabia,KuwaitandtheGulfStatesthathaveahistory
offinancingmilitantjihadists,includingISISwhilecloselyallying
themselveswiththeUS?Isitpro-USEgyptthatfailedtoprotectthe
RussianplanefromanISISbomb?IsitPakistanthathasbeenaUS
strategicsatelliteunderthegunandallalongplayingallsidesfromthe
ChinesetotheTaliban?IsitIraqandLibyathattheUSanditsalliesleft
inshamblesandcausedtherefugeeproblem?
Letusassumeforthesakeofargumentthattheanti-IslamistEgyptian
governmentconstitutesmoderatebecauseUStheArabdictatorshipsin
theGulfandIsraelfavorit.WhywasISISabletoplantasimplesodapop-
bombtobringdowntheRussianplaneandkill224passengers?Inthe
absenceofcooperationontheground,terroristattacksarenotpossibleat
anairport,andcooperationonthegroundmeansthatthereareenough
peoplesympathetictothejihadistcause.
ConsideringthattheonlystableandstrongMiddleEastIslamicregimeis
Iran,whichhasbeenwillingtocooperatewiththeUStocontainSunni
jihadists,doesWashingtonwantIrantoplaythepreeminentroleinthe
regionalbalanceofpower?DoesIranfitinwithWashingtonsbroader
goalsofperpetuallydestabilizingtheMiddleEastandusingIsraeltohelp
out?ConsideringthewaninginfluenceoftheUSintheregionagainstthe
realityofChinasrisingeconomicroleintheworld,Russiashistoricties
withcertaincountrieslikeSyria,Iransdominantregionalrole,why
woulddestabilizationnotmakesensesinceIsraelwantstheexactsame
thingastheWashington?
WhywouldMuslimgovernmentstakecomfortfromUSpolicyof
destabilizingandoverthrowingMiddleEast-NorthAfricanregimesso
thatitcouldexertpreeminenteconomic,militaryandstrategicinfluence
whenintheprocesschaosistheonlyresult?EvenifMuslimswantto
supporttheUSwaragainstISIS,howcantheydosowhentheUShasa
longhistoryofacrusadingforeignpolicytowardMuslimcountries,
exemptingthemoreauthoritarianSaudiArabiaandGulfStatesthathave
beenfundingISIS,whilestrikingselectivelyatregimesthattheUSwants
replaced.EvenaftertheParistragedy,theUSgoalremainstooverthrow
Assadandreplacehimwithapro-USpuppetinsteadofonebeholdento
RussiaandIran.
Assumingthereis100%popularandpoliticalsupportforObamas
versionoftheBushanti-terrorismpolicy,oreventheRepublicanversion
ofrevisitingtheIraqmodelofwarandoccupationinSyria,canthisbring
thedesiredgoalintofruition,orisitmerelyanotherpublicrelationsploy
onthepartofbothDemocratandRepublicanpoliticianswhocannotdeal
effectivelywithdomesticproblemslikeadecliningmiddleclassanda
massivepublicdebt?
Conclusions
DoUSpoliciesincreaseterrorismratherthandecreasingitasthe
governmentclaims?Wemustassumethatpolicymakersareverysmart
peoplewithexperiencewhoalsorelyonoutsideconsultantstoformulate
policy.Whilethiswouldbeasafeassumption,itisnotassafetovouchfor
theirmentalstability,theirblindingideologicalframeofmind,and
career-basedopportunismthattakeprecedenceovereverythingelse
fromhumanrightstosocialjustice.
Itissafetoassumethatthoseinpolicymaking,politicians,pundits,and
themediabelievethesameformulathatworkedinbringingdownthe
Communistblocwouldworkonendingterrorism,regardlessofthe
realitythatCommunistswereorganizedinstatesandemployed
conventionalmethodsjustasthoseopposingthem.Finally,itissafeto
assumethatthemoreastuteapologistsofthebogusanti-terrorism
industrythattheUShascreatedrealizeitisdoomedtofailandinfactto
bringaboutanincreaseinterrorism.
IwashardlysurprisedtoseearecentCNNreportclaimingthatISISloves
Westernmediabecauseitplaysintoitspropagandagoals.Theyare
especiallyappreciativeofFOXNEWSthatconstantlypreacheswarwith
Islamandbootsontheground,thusjustifyingthecallofISIStorecruit
Muslimstodefendtheirlandandtheirfaith.Absurdityslimitsdonot
stopwithJihadiststhattheWestpraiseswhentheyareinvolvedin
topplingaregimethattheUSopposesLibyaorSyria,forexample-but
baptizesterroristswhentheycarryoutpoliticalactsofviolenceagainst
Westernorpro-Westerntargets.
BecauseofsuchblatantabsurditiesinUSforeignpolicyrevealthe
ultimateinirrational,unconscionablesheerpoliticalopportunismand
totalabsenceofanymoralfoundation,RobertFord,formerUS
AmbassadortoSyria,hadwarnedthatUSpolicyassistinganti-Assad
Islamicmilitantswouldresultintheriseofterrorismthatcould
potentiallytouchUSinterests.AmbassadorFordnotedtheexampleof
Afghanistaninthe1980swhentheUStrainedJihadiststhatwould
eventuallyturnintoal-Qaeda.
SimilarcontradictionsasAmbassadorFordnotedareblatantinthecase
ofUkrainewherecontainmentandencirclementUSpoliciesareboundto
backfireintheabsenceofapoliticalsolutionorideologicalfoundation
rootedindemocraticprinciplesratherthanpoliticalopportunism
intendedforshort-termgeopoliticalandeconomicgains.Supportingneo-
NazisamongotherheterogeneouselementsintheUkraineagainstthe
Russian-backedseparatistelementsisnotmerelyamanifestationofan
incoherentforeignpolicyfilledwithcontradictionsandaimlessnessfor
thedemocraticWest,italsorevealsWashingtonsdesperate
anachronisticColdWarsolutionsto21stcenturyproblemsamidtheslow
declineoftheUSinrelationshiptoChina.
Onecouldarguethatthereisnogreatermachineofterrorthanthestate
thathasatitsdisposalthemassivemeansofthepoliceandmilitaryto
inflictmassivedamage,asInotedintheintroduction.Itisalso
noteworthytopointoutthatterrorizinganentirenationcanbecarried
outbynon-militarymechanisms,suchastheIMFrepresentingfinance
capitalhasatitsdisposalwhenimposingausterityandimpoverishesand
bankruptsmillionsofpeoplewithinaremarkablyshortperiod.Finally,
thereisalsothephenomenonofcorporateterrorism,mostprominently
demonstratedinColombiawhereUS-basedcorporationswerehiring
deathsquadstoassassinateandintimidatethepeasants.
AccordingtotheUN,andhumanrightsorganizations,leftwingkillings
carriedoutinColombiahaveaccountedfor12%ofclash-relatedfatalities,
whilerightwingparamilitarydeathsaccountfor80%,raisingthe
questionofwhoisbehindright-wingdeathsquadsandforwhatpurpose.
Similarly,thevastmajorityofdisappearancesandkidnappingsare
attributedtorightwingparamilitarygroupsthatareatthecoreofhuman
rightsviolationsinvariablyignoredbytheColombiangovernmentandthe
USthathashistoricallyclosetieswithColombia.Accordingtoanumber
ofpresreportsandhumanrightsorganizations,CocaColaBottling,
ChiquitaBananaandDrummondminingoperationsarethreecompanies
thathaveinthepastfinancedrightwingparamilitaryoperationsresulting
inkillings,disappearancesandpersecutionoftradeunionists,labor
organizersandleftistactivists.TheGermanTVnetworkDeutscheWella
recentlyranalongdocumentaryonthisissue,focusingmostlyon
DrummondanditsroleinColombia.Thiswastakingplaceduringthe
secondtermoftheBushadministrationandearlyyearsofObama,years
thatcoincidedwithUSglobalcampaignagainstIslamicterrorists,while
turningablindeyetoUScorporate-hiredterrorists.
WhentheforeignministerofSwedenproposedthatworkingtowarda
solutiontothePalestinianQuestioncouldhelpcontainterrorism,Israel
andtheWesternpresscondemnedsuchlinkage.Itisnosecrettothe
entireworldthatIsraelhasbeenterrorizingthePalestinianpeopleunder
apartheidconditionssince1948.ItisalsonosecretthatPalestiniansare
condemnedasterroristswhentheyarefightingforahomelandwhilethe
Israeliarmedforceskillingthemenmasseispresentedasdefendingits
security.Thistypeofhypocrisyisnotlostonpeople,includingmany
Jewsallovertheworld.Itisnavetoassumethatsimplysettlingonceand
forallthePalestinianQuestionwhilepursuingimperialistpoliciestoward
Islamiccountrieswouldsomehowendterrorism.
ThePalestinianQuestionmustbesettledonitsownmerits,eventhough
ithasreverberationsacrosstheentireIslamicworld.ThattheSwedish
foreignministerscommentswerecriticizedinsteadofembracedisjust
anotherillustrationthattheWesterncountriesledbytheUSwant
terrorismtocontinueandtothriveaslongastheyarenottheones
sufferingcasualtiesorhavingtoacceptrefugeesfleeingtheircountries
becausetheUSdestabilizedthem.Aslongascasualtiesandrefugeesare
confinedtoMuslimcountries,aswasthecaseinBeirutjustdaysbefore
theParisbombing,thenalliswellbecauseracismisaliveandwellinthe
ChristianWest.
Thedifferentlobbies,theideologues,andthecheerleadersofPax
Americanawillnotstopcheeringanymeasurethatonthesurface
appearstodealwithapoliticalproblemthroughmilitarymeans.The
withinthesystemcriticssuggestingbothamilitaryandpolitical
solutionarealwaysthereofferingtheso-calledliberalbalancein
democracy.Whatislackingisarealisticapproachbasedonthetrue
capabilitiesandlimitsofPaxAmericanaintheageofrisingAsian
economichegemony.Finally,istheUSinterestedinregimechange
becauseithasinmindthebestinterestsofthepeopleinthosecountriesit
destabilizes,wishingthemtohavegreatersocialjusticeandeconomic
wellbeing?Ifso,shouldnttheUSbefocusingonachievingthesesame
goalsathomeforitsowncitizens,especiallyminoritiesbutalsothe
weakermiddleclasssufferingdownwardmobilityinthelastthree
decades?
JonKofasisaretireduniversityProfessorfromIndianaUniversity.
Senttime: 12/03/201507:39:28AM
FW:[LATENITERUN][RICHLODE][MARCORUBIOONRUSSIA][NICMARSHND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UASanctionsNATOCrimeaEnergypolitics
Subject:
TradeUAgovernanceRUhumanrightsRUINFbreachSpaceGERU-TRAirstrikesinEasternSYDaesh.........
Sent:Wednesday,December02,201510:01PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN][RICHLODE][MARCORUBIOONRUSSIA][NICMARSHND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UASanctionsNATOCrimeaEnergy
politicsTradeUAgovernanceRUhumanrightsRUINFbreachSpaceGERU-TRAirstrikesinEasternSYDaesh.........
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Dec3,2015at1:00AM
Subject:[LATENITERUN][RICHLODE][MARCORUBIOONRUSSIA][NICMARSHND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UASanctions
NATOCrimeaEnergypoliticsTradeUAgovernanceRUhumanrightsRUINFbreachSpaceGERU-TRAirstrikesinEasternSY
Daesh......WDVLAD-O-RAMA
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:
Date:Wed,Dec2,2015at9:56PM
Subject:Fwd:MarcoRubio:Russia'sAggressionDemandsaResponse
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
Walter-thoughtthispiecebyMarcoRubiomightbeofinterest.........
Aggression
Share
Tweet
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ByMarcoRubio
December1,2015
regime.
reportrevealedhowPutinsdaughterandherhusbandhaveholdingsworthsome$2billion.AndPutinhimselfisestimatedtobeworthtensof
billionsofdollars.
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineSanctionsNATOCrimeaEnergypoliticsTradeUkrainegovernanceRussiahumanrightsRussian
INFbreachSpaceGeorgiaRussia-TurkeyAirstrikesinEasternSyriaDaesh....
FightinginEasternUkraine
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30hrs,1December2015
Despitetherelativecalm,theSMMrecordedceasefireviolationsinDonetskandLuhanskregions[1].TheSMM,positionedatDonetskPeoples
Republic(DPR)-controlledDonetskrailwaystation(6kmnorth-westofDonetskcity)between09:00and15:00hrs,heard12undetermined
explosions,severalburstsandshotsofsmall-armsandheavy-machine-gun,atlocationsrangingfrom3-10kminareastothesouth-west,west,
north-westandnorth[2].
TheSMMheard15roundsofsmall-armsfirenearLuganskPeoplesRepublic(LPR)-controlledKalynove-Borshchuvate(61kmwestof
Luhansk).Ingovernment-controlledTrokhizbenka(33kmnorth-westofLuhansk),theSMMheardsmall-armsfireandexplosions,assessedaslive
firetrainingexercises.
[]
AerialsurveillanceimageryavailabletotheSMMrevealedthepresenceofaconcentrationofmilitaryequipmenton28NovembernearLPR-
controlledBuhaivka(36kmsouth-westofLuhansk),withinthe25kmexclusionzone:14towedartillerypieces,24MBTs,100unspecified
armouredvehiclesand30trucks.TheSMMalsoobserved:12armouredpersonnelcarriers(APCs)andmorethan20trucksintheareaof
government-controlledAvdiivka(17kmnorthofDonetsk)headinginthedirectionofKramatorsk
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/205866
Ukrainianphotoessay
http://vasukovich.com/foto-na-pamyat
Sanctions
GermanypushesEU-RussiadealtoavertUkrainetradepacttension
GermanyispilingpressureontheEuropeanCommissiontocutadealwithRussiatoavertaflare-upwhenanEUtradedealwithUkrainecomes
intoforcenextmonth.
Inabidtoresolvethedispute,BerlinhasproposedajointdeclarationbetweentheEUandRussiaofferingMoscowtheprospectoflong-sought
investmentandenergyconcessionstocreateamoreintegratedeconomicareafromtheAtlantictothePacific.
ThesuggestionsareoutlinedinaNovemberletter,seenbytheFinancialTimes,fromFrank-WalterSteinmeier,Germanysforeignminister,to
CeciliaMalmstrm,theEUstradechief.
BerlinsinitiativeunderlinesthecontinuedpoliticalsensitivityoftheEU-UkrainetradedealforMoscow.ThedecisionbyViktorYanukovich,former
Ukrainianpresident,topulloutofsigningthedealunderpressurefromRussiatwoyearsagotriggeredtheproteststhateventuallyoustedhim.
ThelatesttalksbetweenMsMalmstrm,MoscowandKievaimedataddressingRussianconcernsoverhowthedealcouldaffectitstradewith
UkraineendedonTuesdaywithoutagreement.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4ee93654-9840-11e5-9228-87e603d47bdc.html#axzz3tD5CJO4q
TurksinRussiahitbyPutin's'seriousconsequences'afterdowningofwarplane
TensofthousandsofTurksfeartheirliveshaveirrevocablychangedamiddiplomaticwarbetweenRussianandTurkishleaders.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/turks-in-russia-hit-by-putins-serious-consequences-after-downing-of-warplane
NATO
U.S.ArmyEuropetoRequestAviationReinforcements
ThedownsizingofArmyaviationinEuropehasgonetoofar,saidaseniorcommander.AsaresultofanArmy-widerestructuringofaviationunits,
thebrigadethatsupportstheEuropeantheaterhasseenitsranksshrinkfromsevendowntojusttwobattalions.
ThishascreatedanaviationdeficitinEurope,saidCol.ChristopherW.Waters,commanderofthe12thCombatAviationBrigade,basedin
Germany.
TheArmyhassoughttomakeupforreductionsinEuropean-basedforcesbysendingU.S.-basedunitstherefornine-monthrotations.Butthesize
ofcurrentrotationalforcesinEuropetodayisnotenoughtokeepupwithgrowingdemandsforNATOtraininganddeploymentsacrossalarge
continentof51countries,WaterssaidDec.1duringameetingwithreporters.
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2035
NATOsendsjets,shipstobackTurkeyinplanerow
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato-sends-jets-ships-to-back-turkey-in-plane-row.aspx?pageID=238&nID=91965&NewsCatID=352
NATOtoboostTurkey'sairdefences
DowningofRussianwarplaneviolatingallysairspacehasfueledNATOsupport
NATOalliesareseekingtosendaircraftsandcommandshipstoTurkeyinanattempttoboostthecountrysdefensecapabilities,saidSecretary
GeneralJensStoltenbergonTuesday.
TheU.K.willprovideaircraftstoTurkeysIncirlikAirbaseinAdanawhileGermanyandDenmarkwillsupplycommandshipstoNATOforcesin
theMediterranean.SpainisalsoprovidingPatriotmissilebatteriesinsouthernTurkey.
WhileNATOhasincreasedairdefensesforTurkeyformanyyears,thedowningoftheRussianwarplane,whichviolatedtheallysairspaceon
Nov.24,hasfueledNATOsupport.
"Thisissomethingwehavebeenworkingonlongbeforetheincidentandisseparatefromtheincident,"StoltenbergtoldreportersTuesday
followingaNATOforeignministersmeetinginBrussels.
http://aa.com.tr/en/turkey/nato-to-boost-turkeys-air-defenses/484237
Germany,FranceeyeuseofbasesinTurkey
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/germany-france-eye-use-of-bases-in-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=91960&NewsCatID=352
NATOformallyinvitesMontenegrotojoinalliance,ranklingRussia
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/02/europe/nato-montenegro-membership-invitation/index.html
Crimea
MonthsAfterRussianAnnexation,HopesStarttoDiminCrimea
WhenresidentsinthistypicalSovietfactorytownvotedenthusiasticallytosecedefromUkraineandtobecomeRussians,theythoughtthechaos
andcorruptionthatmadedailylifeastrugglewereathingofthepast.
Nowthatmanyofthemarebeingforcedtocookandboildrinkingwateronopenfires,however,theyarebeginningtoreconsider.
Therehasbeennosteadyelectricitysupplyinthishard-hittownsinceNov.22,whenprotestersinUkraineblewupthelinesstillfeedingCrimea
withmostofitselectricpower.Thebiggertownsandcitiesareonlymarginallybetteroff.
Yet,peopleherearenotsurewhomtoblamemorefortheirpredicament:theCrimeanTataractivistsandUkrainiannationalistswhocutoff
CrimeaslinktotheUkrainianpowergridorthelocalgovernmentofficialswhoclaimedtohaveenoughpowergeneratorsstoredawaytohandle
suchanemergency.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/europe/power-outage-forces-crimeans-to-reconsider-their-enthusiasm-for-secession.html
PutinvisitsthefirststageofanenergylinkfromRussiatoCrimea.
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50863
RussiaactivatesitspowerbridgetoCrimea,wherePutinisonhandtowelcomethefirstmegawatts
http://meduza.io/en/news/2015/12/03/russia-activates-its-power-bridge-to-crimea-where-putin-is-on-hand-to-welcome-the-first-megawatts
Energypolitics
RussiaandSaudiArabiaBattleforControlofEuropeanOilMarket
BothRussianandSaudicompanieshaveaggressivelydiscountedtheircrudeexportstoEurope,dimminghopesofproductioncuts
http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-saudi-arabia-battle-for-control-of-european-oil-market-1448947982
TurkeyopentoLNGstorageprojectswithQatarErdogan
http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-open-lng-storage-projects-qatar-erdogan-124608286--business.html
Trade
RussiaWarnsOfPenaltiesOnKyivAfterFailedTradeTalks
RussiaislikelytopenalizeUkrainianimportsstartinginJanuaryafternegotiatorsfailedtoagreeonwaystoaddressMoscow'sobjectionsto
Kyiv'sfree-tradeagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion.
"ItisaveryprobablescenariothattherewillnotbeanagreementbeforeJanuary1,"whentheEUtradepactgoesintoeffect,andthatwillprompt
RussiatoendUkraine'spreferentialtradestatus,RussianEconomyMinisterAlexeiUlyukayevsaidafterunsuccessfultradetalksbetweenRussia,
Ukraine,andtheEUinBrusselsonDecember1.
Whilethethreepartiesagreedtokeeptalking,timeisrunningoutontheEU'syearlongbidtoquellRussianoppositiontotheaccord,whichisatthe
rootofthebroaderconflictbetweenKyivandMoscow.
"Theclockistickingvery,veryfast,"saidEUTradeCommissionerCeciliaMalmstromafterhostingthemeeting.Shestressedthatsheexpectsthe
agreementtogointoeffectonJanuary1asUkraineandtheEUarenolongerwillingtoheedRussiancallsforadelayafterhavingalready
postponedtheaccordforayearinanefforttoappeaseMoscow.
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-warns-penalties-kyiv-after-failed-trade-talks/27401805.html
Ukrainegovernance
UkrainianbillionairesoughtbyUScancelstriphomeafterthreatofarrest
InteriorministerpostsFacebookphotographofheavilyarmedfighterswaitingforDmytroFirtashatKievairport
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/ukrainian-billionaire-cancels-trip-home-after-threat-of-arrest
Russiahumanrights
Russiamovestolegislateimpunityfrominternationallaw
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1449011289
RussianINFbreach

U.S.PlanstoCounterArmsBreachbyRussia
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/europe/us-plans-to-counter-arms-breach-by-russia.html?ref=world&_r=0
U.S.SaysRussiaTestedCruiseMissile,ViolatingTreaty
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/world/europe/us-says-russia-tested-cruise-missile-in-violation-of-treaty.html
Space
RussiaFlightTestsAnti-SatelliteMissile
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-conducts-successful-flight-test-of-anti-satellite-missile/
Georgia
NATODealsBlowToGeorgia'sMembershipHopes
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/76381
NATOTellsGeorgia:MAPRemainsIntegralPartofMembershipPath
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=28822
Russia-Turkey
RussiaaccusesErdoganoftradingoilwithIS
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34982951
RussiastepsuphostilityagainstTurkeywithwarroombriefing
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/russia-steps-up-hostility-against-turkey-with-war-room-briefing-in-kremlin?CMP=twt_a-
world_b-gdnworld
RussianbriefingaccusingTurkeyofpurchasingDaeshoil.
http://syria.mil.ru/news/more.htm?id=12070708@cmsArticle

RussianMODPresentsClaimsOfTurkishOilTradingWithISIS
http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-in-syria-russian-mod-presents-claims-of-turkish-oil-trading-with-isis/#11325
'NoDecision'TakenToFreezeTurkishStream,SaysRussianMinister
http://europe.newsweek.com/no-decision-taken-freeze-turkish-stream-says-russian-minister-400161?rm=eu
RussiaisnotsuspendingitstwomajorenergyprojectswithTurkeydespitetherowoverthedowningofaRussianjetneartheSyrianborderlate
lastmonth,statenewsagencyItar-Tassreports.
Russia'sLavrovsaysreadytomeetTurkishcounterpartinBelgrade
http://www.dailystar.com.lb//News/Middle-East/2015/Dec-02/325648-russias-lavrov-says-ready-to-meet-turkish-counterpart-in-belgrade.ashx
Russia'sLavrovagreestomeetTurkishministerinplanerow
http://www.france24.com/en/20151202-russias-lavrov-agrees-meet-turkish-minister-plane-row
TurkeygetsreadyformuchlessRussianLPGtransportgas
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/02/us-turkey-russia-lpg-idUSKBN0TL1QH20151202
AirstrikesinEasternSyria
U.N.condemnsairstrikethatcutwatersuppliestoSyria'sAleppo
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/01/us-syria-crisis-aleppo-water-idUSKBN0TK4F020151201#LPr97XjPJ20HASI8.99
RussianforcesinSyria
Russiaadding2ndairbaseinSyria,pursuing'expansion'inmilitarycampaign.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/01/russia-adding-2nd-airbase-in-syria-pursuing-expansion-in-military-campaign.html
TheRussianMinistryofDefenceheldapressconferencethisafternoonatwhichtheypresentedtheirclaimsthatTurkeyisbuyingoilfromISIS.

T-90tanksmovetothefrontinSyria
http://www.janes.com/article/56411/t-90-tanks-move-to-the-front-in-syria
Daesh
ISISReleasesVideoPurportedlyShowingBeheadingofAllegedRussianSpy
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-releases-video-purportedly-showing-beheading-alleged-russian-spy-n472921
Iran
Overhauledwarship,combatchopperre-joinIransNavy
http://en.trend.az/iran/society/2463606.html
U.S.InvestigatingExecutionOfIranian-AmericanManInTehran
http://www.rferl.org/content/us-investigating-execution-iranian-american-man-tehran-california-murder/27401795.html
U.S.InvestigatingClaimsIranGeneralSustainedInjuriesinSyria
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/02/u-s-investigating-claims-iran-general-sustained-injuries-in-syria/
IAEAReportConcludesIranDidBasicWorkToDevelopNuclearWeapon
http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-iaea-watchdog-some-work-nuclear-weapon/27403244.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Subject:AssadandPutindoprofitablebusinesswithDaesh:RussianoppositionleaderKasparov
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com
AssadandPutindoprofitablebusinesswithDaesh:RussianoppositionleaderKasparov
DAILYSABAHWITHANADOLUAGENCY
ISTANBUL
http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2015/12/02/assad-and-putin-do-profitable-business-with-daesh-russian-opposition-leader-kasparov
WorldfamousRussianchesschampionandoppositionleaderGarryKasparovhasbeenaTwitterrampagerecentlyagainstRussian
PresidentVladimirPutin,includingthelatter'sdecisionsconcerningTurkey.
KasparovcriticizedPutin'sstanceontheSyriandictatorBasharAl-AssadandhisslanderthatTurkey'buysoil'fromtheDeashterrorist
organization,claimingthatitisRussiawhichmakesprofitsworkingwithDaeshandtheSyrianregime."AssadandPutindoprofitable
businesswithISIS.Theydon'tcareaboutSyriaorRussia,onlymoneyandpowertokeepit,"saidKasparov,usinganalternativeacronym
forthemilitantgroup.
TheprominentoppositionfigureinRussiahasalsoslammedthePutinadministration'sdecisiontoceasefoodimportsfromTurkeyand
endingvisa-freetravelwithTurkeyafterthedowningofaRussianfighterjetthatviolatedTurkishairspaceNov.24.
"PutinblocksTurkishimportsandendsvisa-freetravel.Asusual,it'shiseconomicactionsthathurtaverageRussians,notthoseof
enemies,"KasparovtweetedonNov.27.
HealsotweetedabouttheMoscow-imposedbanontouristpackagestoTurkey,aswellasthesuspensionofflightstoEgypt:"IfEgyptand
Turkeyareoffthelist,theforeigntourismmarketisnearlydeadformostRussians."
TravelagenciesinRussiahavesuspendedthesaletoRussiancitizensofproductsproposingtripstoTurkey.And,sinceaRussianairliner
crashedshortlyaftertakingofffromtheEgyptianresortofSharmel-Sheikhtwoweeksago,Moscowhascutoffairlinksbetweenthetwo
countries.
Kasparovdidnotstopthere.HelatersaidthatthePutinadministrationsupportedPresidentBasharal-AssadtokillciviliansinSyria.
"PutinhelpsAssadkillciviliansanddestroyalloppositionexceptISIS,withwhomtheyaredoinganiceoilbusiness.Allyvsterror?!"he
said.
"ButisalreadyproofthatAssadandPutindoprofitablebusinesswithISIS.Theydon'tcareaboutSyriaorRussia,onlymoneyandpowerto
keepit,"KasparovremarkedinhisTwitteraccountonMonday.
"SyriabarelyexistsnowandAssadisamass-murderer.HeandPutinmaydeserveeachotherbuttheSyrianpeopledon't,"hehadwritten
onNov.24.
OnNov.25,hetweeted,"10yearsagoIsaidifyouwantedtounderstandPutin'sregimedon'treadpoliticalscience,readMarioPuzo
[authorofTheGodfather].It'samafia.Followthemoney!"
KasparovdidnotalsohesitatetomentiontheannexationofCrimeabyRussia:"Putinhaslied--blatantly,demonstrably--about
everythinghismilitaryisdoingfromCrimeatoUkrainetoSyria.Whybelievehimnow?"hesaid.
WhentheRussianfighterjetwasshotdownbyTurkey,GarryKasparovtweetedonNov.24despitethewarnings,"Putinandhis
commanderstelltheirpilotstoignoreNATOwarnings,totesttheirresolveagain.Playingwiththeirlivestolooktough."
Inhisbook"WinterisComing",originallypublishedinOctober,KasparovblamedtheWestandtheU.S.governmentforbeingtoosofton
Putin.
Inhisbook,KasparovclaimsthatRussiaheadedtowardsdictatorshipfromdemocracy.
AftertheSovietUnion'ssecurityagencyKGB'sex-lieutenantcolonelVladimirPutinbecameRussianpresidentin1999,Kasparovstates,the
westerncountriesandtheU.S.didnothingtopreventPutinfrombecomingadictatorandsubsequentlyaninternationalthreat.
Subject:AssadPushesKremlinline>AssadaccusesSaudiArabiaandQataroffinancingterroriststhroughTurkey
AssadaccusesSaudiArabiaandQataroffinancingterroriststhroughTurkey
http://tass.ru/en/world/840812
December02,4:11UTC+3PRAGUE
AccordingtotheSyrianpresident,thesituationwillimprovewhen"France,GreatBritain,USA,SaudiArabia,Qatarandothersstop
supportingterrorists"
ValerySharifulin/TASS
PRAGUE,December2./TASS/.ThesituationwiththedownedRussianjetdemonstratedtherealintentionofTurkishPresidentRecep
TayyipErdogantopreventthesuccessofthemilitaryoperationagainstterroristsinSyria,SyrianPresidentBasharAssadtoldCzech
TelevisioninaninterviewbroadcastonTuesday.
"Ithinkthis(downedRussianjet)showedErdogansrealintentionashecouldnotcopethattheRussianoperation(inSyria)changedthe
balanceofpowerontheground,"Assadsaid."ThisisErdogansfailureinSyria.Thefailureofhisterroristgroupsmeanstheendofhis
politicalcareer,andhewantedtodoanythingtohinderthesuccess(ofthemilitaryoperationinSyria),"Assadadded.
"Idonotthinkthatitwillchangethebalance.Thewaragainstterrorismcontinues.Russiansupportwillbestronger,andIdontthinkthere
isawayback,"theSyrianPresidentadded.
TerroristsarefinancedthroughTurkeywithsupportofSaudiArabiaandQatar
TerroristsarefinancedandsuppliedweaponsmostlythroughTurkeywithsupportofSaudiArabiaandQatar,SyrianPresidentsaid.
"Ifyoureallywanttofightanddefeatthem(terrorists),thenitisnecessarytocutofftheirsuppliesofammunition,weapons,money,which
theymostlygetthroughTurkeywiththesupportofSaudiArabiaandQatar,"Assadsaid.
PeacewillcometoSyriaiftheWestanditsalliesintheMiddleEastwill"stopsupportingterrorists,"SyrianPresidenttoldCzech
Television.
Answeringaquestiononwhatisneededforthefour-yearcivilinSyriatostop,Assadsaid:"WhenthecountiesthatImentioned-France,
GreatBritain,USA,SaudiArabia,Qatarandothersstopsupportingterrorists,thesituationwillimprovethenextday.Andinseveral
monthspeacewilldefinitelycometoSyriaifthey(Westerncountries)stop."
ThedowningofRussianSu-24bomberbyTurkey
OnNovember24,theTurkishAirForcesfighterjetshotdownaRussianSu-24Mbomber.AnkaraclaimstheSu-24Mbomberviolatedthe
TurkishairspaceintheareaoftheborderwithSyria.
However,RussiasDefenceMinistryhassaidtheSu-24MplanestayedexclusivelyovertheSyrianterritoryand"therewasnoviolationof
theTurkishairspace."
ThecrewoftheSu-24Mbombermanagedtoejectbutoneofthepilotswaskilledbygunfirefromtheground.Thesecondpilotwas
rescuedandtakentotheRussianairbase.
RussianmilitaryoperationinSyria
OnSeptember30RussiasFederationCouncilunanimouslyapprovedPresidentVladimirPutinsrequesttolaunchamilitaryoperationin
SyriaagainstIslamicStateandJabhatal-Nusraterroristgroups(outlawedinRussia).RussianAerospaceDefenseForcesdeliveredfirst
targetedairstrikesatmilitantspositionsonthesameday.
Morethan50jetsandhelicopterstakepartintheoperation,includingSu-34andSu-24Mfighterjets,Su-25aircraft,Su-30SMfighter
aircraft,andMi-8andMi-24helicopters.Sincethestartoftheoperation,Russianaviationmadehundredsofsorties,destroyeddozensof
ammunitiondepots,explosivesproductionplantsandcommandposts.
Senttime: 12/03/201507:39:28AM
FW:[LATENITERUN][RICHLODE][MARCORUBIOONRUSSIA][NICMARSHND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UASanctionsNATOCrimeaEnergypolitics
Subject:
TradeUAgovernanceRUhumanrightsRUINFbreachSpaceGERU-TRAirstrikesinEasternSYDaesh.........
Sent:Wednesday,December02,201510:01PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN][RICHLODE][MARCORUBIOONRUSSIA][NICMARSHND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UASanctionsNATOCrimeaEnergy
politicsTradeUAgovernanceRUhumanrightsRUINFbreachSpaceGERU-TRAirstrikesinEasternSYDaesh.........
Date:Thu,Dec3,2015at1:00AM
Subject:[LATENITERUN][RICHLODE][MARCORUBIOONRUSSIA][NICMARSHND]Fwd:FW:FightinginE/UASanctions
NATOCrimeaEnergypoliticsTradeUAgovernanceRUhumanrightsRUINFbreachSpaceGERU-TRAirstrikesinEasternSY
Daesh......WDVLAD-O-RAMA
From:
Subject:Fwd:MarcoRubio:Russia'sAggressionDemandsaResponse
Walter-thoughtthispiecebyMarcoRubiomightbeofinterest.........
Aggression
Share
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ByMarcoRubio
December1,2015
regime.
reportrevealedhowPutinsdaughterandherhusbandhaveholdingsworthsome$2billion.AndPutinhimselfisestimatedtobeworthtensof
billionsofdollars.
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineSanctionsNATOCrimeaEnergypoliticsTradeUkrainegovernanceRussiahumanrightsRussian
INFbreachSpaceGeorgiaRussia-TurkeyAirstrikesinEasternSyriaDaesh....
FightinginEasternUkraine
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30hrs,1December2015
Despitetherelativecalm,theSMMrecordedceasefireviolationsinDonetskandLuhanskregions[1].TheSMM,positionedatDonetskPeoples
Republic(DPR)-controlledDonetskrailwaystation(6kmnorth-westofDonetskcity)between09:00and15:00hrs,heard12undetermined
explosions,severalburstsandshotsofsmall-armsandheavy-machine-gun,atlocationsrangingfrom3-10kminareastothesouth-west,west,
north-westandnorth[2].
TheSMMheard15roundsofsmall-armsfirenearLuganskPeoplesRepublic(LPR)-controlledKalynove-Borshchuvate(61kmwestof
Luhansk).Ingovernment-controlledTrokhizbenka(33kmnorth-westofLuhansk),theSMMheardsmall-armsfireandexplosions,assessedaslive
firetrainingexercises.
[]
AerialsurveillanceimageryavailabletotheSMMrevealedthepresenceofaconcentrationofmilitaryequipmenton28NovembernearLPR-
controlledBuhaivka(36kmsouth-westofLuhansk),withinthe25kmexclusionzone:14towedartillerypieces,24MBTs,100unspecified
armouredvehiclesand30trucks.TheSMMalsoobserved:12armouredpersonnelcarriers(APCs)andmorethan20trucksintheareaof
government-controlledAvdiivka(17kmnorthofDonetsk)headinginthedirectionofKramatorsk
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/205866
Ukrainianphotoessay
http://vasukovich.com/foto-na-pamyat
Sanctions
GermanypushesEU-RussiadealtoavertUkrainetradepacttension
GermanyispilingpressureontheEuropeanCommissiontocutadealwithRussiatoavertaflare-upwhenanEUtradedealwithUkrainecomes
intoforcenextmonth.
Inabidtoresolvethedispute,BerlinhasproposedajointdeclarationbetweentheEUandRussiaofferingMoscowtheprospectoflong-sought
investmentandenergyconcessionstocreateamoreintegratedeconomicareafromtheAtlantictothePacific.
ThesuggestionsareoutlinedinaNovemberletter,seenbytheFinancialTimes,fromFrank-WalterSteinmeier,Germanysforeignminister,to
CeciliaMalmstrm,theEUstradechief.
BerlinsinitiativeunderlinesthecontinuedpoliticalsensitivityoftheEU-UkrainetradedealforMoscow.ThedecisionbyViktorYanukovich,former
Ukrainianpresident,topulloutofsigningthedealunderpressurefromRussiatwoyearsagotriggeredtheproteststhateventuallyoustedhim.
ThelatesttalksbetweenMsMalmstrm,MoscowandKievaimedataddressingRussianconcernsoverhowthedealcouldaffectitstradewith
UkraineendedonTuesdaywithoutagreement.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4ee93654-9840-11e5-9228-87e603d47bdc.html#axzz3tD5CJO4q
TurksinRussiahitbyPutin's'seriousconsequences'afterdowningofwarplane
TensofthousandsofTurksfeartheirliveshaveirrevocablychangedamiddiplomaticwarbetweenRussianandTurkishleaders.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/turks-in-russia-hit-by-putins-serious-consequences-after-downing-of-warplane
NATO
U.S.ArmyEuropetoRequestAviationReinforcements
ThedownsizingofArmyaviationinEuropehasgonetoofar,saidaseniorcommander.AsaresultofanArmy-widerestructuringofaviationunits,
thebrigadethatsupportstheEuropeantheaterhasseenitsranksshrinkfromsevendowntojusttwobattalions.
ThishascreatedanaviationdeficitinEurope,saidCol.ChristopherW.Waters,commanderofthe12thCombatAviationBrigade,basedin
Germany.
TheArmyhassoughttomakeupforreductionsinEuropean-basedforcesbysendingU.S.-basedunitstherefornine-monthrotations.Butthesize
ofcurrentrotationalforcesinEuropetodayisnotenoughtokeepupwithgrowingdemandsforNATOtraininganddeploymentsacrossalarge
continentof51countries,WaterssaidDec.1duringameetingwithreporters.
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2035
NATOsendsjets,shipstobackTurkeyinplanerow
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato-sends-jets-ships-to-back-turkey-in-plane-row.aspx?pageID=238&nID=91965&NewsCatID=352
NATOtoboostTurkey'sairdefences
DowningofRussianwarplaneviolatingallysairspacehasfueledNATOsupport
NATOalliesareseekingtosendaircraftsandcommandshipstoTurkeyinanattempttoboostthecountrysdefensecapabilities,saidSecretary
GeneralJensStoltenbergonTuesday.
TheU.K.willprovideaircraftstoTurkeysIncirlikAirbaseinAdanawhileGermanyandDenmarkwillsupplycommandshipstoNATOforcesin
theMediterranean.SpainisalsoprovidingPatriotmissilebatteriesinsouthernTurkey.
WhileNATOhasincreasedairdefensesforTurkeyformanyyears,thedowningoftheRussianwarplane,whichviolatedtheallysairspaceon
Nov.24,hasfueledNATOsupport.
"Thisissomethingwehavebeenworkingonlongbeforetheincidentandisseparatefromtheincident,"StoltenbergtoldreportersTuesday
followingaNATOforeignministersmeetinginBrussels.
http://aa.com.tr/en/turkey/nato-to-boost-turkeys-air-defenses/484237
Germany,FranceeyeuseofbasesinTurkey
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/germany-france-eye-use-of-bases-in-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=91960&NewsCatID=352
NATOformallyinvitesMontenegrotojoinalliance,ranklingRussia
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/02/europe/nato-montenegro-membership-invitation/index.html
Crimea
MonthsAfterRussianAnnexation,HopesStarttoDiminCrimea
WhenresidentsinthistypicalSovietfactorytownvotedenthusiasticallytosecedefromUkraineandtobecomeRussians,theythoughtthechaos
andcorruptionthatmadedailylifeastrugglewereathingofthepast.
Nowthatmanyofthemarebeingforcedtocookandboildrinkingwateronopenfires,however,theyarebeginningtoreconsider.
Therehasbeennosteadyelectricitysupplyinthishard-hittownsinceNov.22,whenprotestersinUkraineblewupthelinesstillfeedingCrimea
withmostofitselectricpower.Thebiggertownsandcitiesareonlymarginallybetteroff.
Yet,peopleherearenotsurewhomtoblamemorefortheirpredicament:theCrimeanTataractivistsandUkrainiannationalistswhocutoff
CrimeaslinktotheUkrainianpowergridorthelocalgovernmentofficialswhoclaimedtohaveenoughpowergeneratorsstoredawaytohandle
suchanemergency.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/europe/power-outage-forces-crimeans-to-reconsider-their-enthusiasm-for-secession.html
PutinvisitsthefirststageofanenergylinkfromRussiatoCrimea.
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50863
RussiaactivatesitspowerbridgetoCrimea,wherePutinisonhandtowelcomethefirstmegawatts
http://meduza.io/en/news/2015/12/03/russia-activates-its-power-bridge-to-crimea-where-putin-is-on-hand-to-welcome-the-first-megawatts
Energypolitics
RussiaandSaudiArabiaBattleforControlofEuropeanOilMarket
BothRussianandSaudicompanieshaveaggressivelydiscountedtheircrudeexportstoEurope,dimminghopesofproductioncuts
http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-saudi-arabia-battle-for-control-of-european-oil-market-1448947982
TurkeyopentoLNGstorageprojectswithQatarErdogan
http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-open-lng-storage-projects-qatar-erdogan-124608286--business.html
Trade
RussiaWarnsOfPenaltiesOnKyivAfterFailedTradeTalks
RussiaislikelytopenalizeUkrainianimportsstartinginJanuaryafternegotiatorsfailedtoagreeonwaystoaddressMoscow'sobjectionsto
Kyiv'sfree-tradeagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion.
"ItisaveryprobablescenariothattherewillnotbeanagreementbeforeJanuary1,"whentheEUtradepactgoesintoeffect,andthatwillprompt
RussiatoendUkraine'spreferentialtradestatus,RussianEconomyMinisterAlexeiUlyukayevsaidafterunsuccessfultradetalksbetweenRussia,
Ukraine,andtheEUinBrusselsonDecember1.
Whilethethreepartiesagreedtokeeptalking,timeisrunningoutontheEU'syearlongbidtoquellRussianoppositiontotheaccord,whichisatthe
rootofthebroaderconflictbetweenKyivandMoscow.
"Theclockistickingvery,veryfast,"saidEUTradeCommissionerCeciliaMalmstromafterhostingthemeeting.Shestressedthatsheexpectsthe
agreementtogointoeffectonJanuary1asUkraineandtheEUarenolongerwillingtoheedRussiancallsforadelayafterhavingalready
postponedtheaccordforayearinanefforttoappeaseMoscow.
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-warns-penalties-kyiv-after-failed-trade-talks/27401805.html
Ukrainegovernance
UkrainianbillionairesoughtbyUScancelstriphomeafterthreatofarrest
InteriorministerpostsFacebookphotographofheavilyarmedfighterswaitingforDmytroFirtashatKievairport
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/ukrainian-billionaire-cancels-trip-home-after-threat-of-arrest
Russiahumanrights
Russiamovestolegislateimpunityfrominternationallaw
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1449011289
RussianINFbreach

U.S.PlanstoCounterArmsBreachbyRussia
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/europe/us-plans-to-counter-arms-breach-by-russia.html?ref=world&_r=0
U.S.SaysRussiaTestedCruiseMissile,ViolatingTreaty
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/world/europe/us-says-russia-tested-cruise-missile-in-violation-of-treaty.html
Space
RussiaFlightTestsAnti-SatelliteMissile
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-conducts-successful-flight-test-of-anti-satellite-missile/
Georgia
NATODealsBlowToGeorgia'sMembershipHopes
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/76381
NATOTellsGeorgia:MAPRemainsIntegralPartofMembershipPath
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=28822
Russia-Turkey
RussiaaccusesErdoganoftradingoilwithIS
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34982951
RussiastepsuphostilityagainstTurkeywithwarroombriefing
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/russia-steps-up-hostility-against-turkey-with-war-room-briefing-in-kremlin?CMP=twt_a-
world_b-gdnworld
RussianbriefingaccusingTurkeyofpurchasingDaeshoil.
http://syria.mil.ru/news/more.htm?id=12070708@cmsArticle

'NoDecision'TakenToFreezeTurkishStream,SaysRussianMinister
RussiaisnotsuspendingitstwomajorenergyprojectswithTurkeydespitetherowoverthedowningofaRussianjetneartheSyrianborderlate
lastmonth,statenewsagencyItar-Tassreports.
Russia'sLavrovsaysreadytomeetTurkishcounterpartinBelgrade
http://www.dailystar.com.lb//News/Middle-East/2015/Dec-02/325648-russias-lavrov-says-ready-to-meet-turkish-counterpart-in-belgrade.ashx
Russia'sLavrovagreestomeetTurkishministerinplanerow
http://www.france24.com/en/20151202-russias-lavrov-agrees-meet-turkish-minister-plane-row
TurkeygetsreadyformuchlessRussianLPGtransportgas
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/02/us-turkey-russia-lpg-idUSKBN0TL1QH20151202
AirstrikesinEasternSyria
U.N.condemnsairstrikethatcutwatersuppliestoSyria'sAleppo
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/12/01/us-syria-crisis-aleppo-water-idUSKBN0TK4F020151201#LPr97XjPJ20HASI8.99
RussianforcesinSyria
Russiaadding2ndairbaseinSyria,pursuing'expansion'inmilitarycampaign.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/01/russia-adding-2nd-airbase-in-syria-pursuing-expansion-in-military-campaign.html
TheRussianMinistryofDefenceheldapressconferencethisafternoonatwhichtheypresentedtheirclaimsthatTurkeyisbuyingoilfromISIS.

T-90tanksmovetothefrontinSyria
http://www.janes.com/article/56411/t-90-tanks-move-to-the-front-in-syria
Daesh
ISISReleasesVideoPurportedlyShowingBeheadingofAllegedRussianSpy
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-releases-video-purportedly-showing-beheading-alleged-russian-spy-n472921
Iran
Overhauledwarship,combatchopperre-joinIransNavy
http://en.trend.az/iran/society/2463606.html
U.S.InvestigatingExecutionOfIranian-AmericanManInTehran
http://www.rferl.org/content/us-investigating-execution-iranian-american-man-tehran-california-murder/27401795.html
U.S.InvestigatingClaimsIranGeneralSustainedInjuriesinSyria
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/02/u-s-investigating-claims-iran-general-sustained-injuries-in-syria/
IAEAReportConcludesIranDidBasicWorkToDevelopNuclearWeapon
http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-iaea-watchdog-some-work-nuclear-weapon/27403244.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
Subject:AssadandPutindoprofitablebusinesswithDaesh:RussianoppositionleaderKasparov
AssadandPutindoprofitablebusinesswithDaesh:RussianoppositionleaderKasparov
DAILYSABAHWITHANADOLUAGENCY
ISTANBUL
http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2015/12/02/assad-and-putin-do-profitable-business-with-daesh-russian-opposition-leader-kasparov
WorldfamousRussianchesschampionandoppositionleaderGarryKasparovhasbeenaTwitterrampagerecentlyagainstRussian
PresidentVladimirPutin,includingthelatter'sdecisionsconcerningTurkey.
KasparovcriticizedPutin'sstanceontheSyriandictatorBasharAl-AssadandhisslanderthatTurkey'buysoil'fromtheDeashterrorist
organization,claimingthatitisRussiawhichmakesprofitsworkingwithDaeshandtheSyrianregime."AssadandPutindoprofitable
businesswithISIS.Theydon'tcareaboutSyriaorRussia,onlymoneyandpowertokeepit,"saidKasparov,usinganalternativeacronym
forthemilitantgroup.
TheprominentoppositionfigureinRussiahasalsoslammedthePutinadministration'sdecisiontoceasefoodimportsfromTurkeyand
endingvisa-freetravelwithTurkeyafterthedowningofaRussianfighterjetthatviolatedTurkishairspaceNov.24.
"PutinblocksTurkishimportsandendsvisa-freetravel.Asusual,it'shiseconomicactionsthathurtaverageRussians,notthoseof
enemies,"KasparovtweetedonNov.27.
HealsotweetedabouttheMoscow-imposedbanontouristpackagestoTurkey,aswellasthesuspensionofflightstoEgypt:"IfEgyptand
Turkeyareoffthelist,theforeigntourismmarketisnearlydeadformostRussians."
TravelagenciesinRussiahavesuspendedthesaletoRussiancitizensofproductsproposingtripstoTurkey.And,sinceaRussianairliner
crashedshortlyaftertakingofffromtheEgyptianresortofSharmel-Sheikhtwoweeksago,Moscowhascutoffairlinksbetweenthetwo
countries.
Kasparovdidnotstopthere.HelatersaidthatthePutinadministrationsupportedPresidentBasharal-AssadtokillciviliansinSyria.
"PutinhelpsAssadkillciviliansanddestroyalloppositionexceptISIS,withwhomtheyaredoinganiceoilbusiness.Allyvsterror?!"he
said.
"ButisalreadyproofthatAssadandPutindoprofitablebusinesswithISIS.Theydon'tcareaboutSyriaorRussia,onlymoneyandpowerto
keepit,"KasparovremarkedinhisTwitteraccountonMonday.
"SyriabarelyexistsnowandAssadisamass-murderer.HeandPutinmaydeserveeachotherbuttheSyrianpeopledon't,"hehadwritten
onNov.24.
OnNov.25,hetweeted,"10yearsagoIsaidifyouwantedtounderstandPutin'sregimedon'treadpoliticalscience,readMarioPuzo
[authorofTheGodfather].It'samafia.Followthemoney!"
KasparovdidnotalsohesitatetomentiontheannexationofCrimeabyRussia:"Putinhaslied--blatantly,demonstrably--about
everythinghismilitaryisdoingfromCrimeatoUkrainetoSyria.Whybelievehimnow?"hesaid.
WhentheRussianfighterjetwasshotdownbyTurkey,GarryKasparovtweetedonNov.24despitethewarnings,"Putinandhis
commanderstelltheirpilotstoignoreNATOwarnings,totesttheirresolveagain.Playingwiththeirlivestolooktough."
Inhisbook"WinterisComing",originallypublishedinOctober,KasparovblamedtheWestandtheU.S.governmentforbeingtoosofton
Putin.
Inhisbook,KasparovclaimsthatRussiaheadedtowardsdictatorshipfromdemocracy.
AftertheSovietUnion'ssecurityagencyKGB'sex-lieutenantcolonelVladimirPutinbecameRussianpresidentin1999,Kasparovstates,the
westerncountriesandtheU.S.didnothingtopreventPutinfrombecomingadictatorandsubsequentlyaninternationalthreat.
Subject:AssadPushesKremlinline>AssadaccusesSaudiArabiaandQataroffinancingterroriststhroughTurkey
AssadaccusesSaudiArabiaandQataroffinancingterroriststhroughTurkey
http://tass.ru/en/world/840812
December02,4:11UTC+3PRAGUE
AccordingtotheSyrianpresident,thesituationwillimprovewhen"France,GreatBritain,USA,SaudiArabia,Qatarandothersstop
supportingterrorists"
ValerySharifulin/TASS
PRAGUE,December2./TASS/.ThesituationwiththedownedRussianjetdemonstratedtherealintentionofTurkishPresidentRecep
TayyipErdogantopreventthesuccessofthemilitaryoperationagainstterroristsinSyria,SyrianPresidentBasharAssadtoldCzech
TelevisioninaninterviewbroadcastonTuesday.
"Ithinkthis(downedRussianjet)showedErdogansrealintentionashecouldnotcopethattheRussianoperation(inSyria)changedthe
balanceofpowerontheground,"Assadsaid."ThisisErdogansfailureinSyria.Thefailureofhisterroristgroupsmeanstheendofhis
politicalcareer,andhewantedtodoanythingtohinderthesuccess(ofthemilitaryoperationinSyria),"Assadadded.
"Idonotthinkthatitwillchangethebalance.Thewaragainstterrorismcontinues.Russiansupportwillbestronger,andIdontthinkthere
isawayback,"theSyrianPresidentadded.
TerroristsarefinancedthroughTurkeywithsupportofSaudiArabiaandQatar
TerroristsarefinancedandsuppliedweaponsmostlythroughTurkeywithsupportofSaudiArabiaandQatar,SyrianPresidentsaid.
"Ifyoureallywanttofightanddefeatthem(terrorists),thenitisnecessarytocutofftheirsuppliesofammunition,weapons,money,which
theymostlygetthroughTurkeywiththesupportofSaudiArabiaandQatar,"Assadsaid.
PeacewillcometoSyriaiftheWestanditsalliesintheMiddleEastwill"stopsupportingterrorists,"SyrianPresidenttoldCzech
Television.
Answeringaquestiononwhatisneededforthefour-yearcivilinSyriatostop,Assadsaid:"WhenthecountiesthatImentioned-France,
GreatBritain,USA,SaudiArabia,Qatarandothersstopsupportingterrorists,thesituationwillimprovethenextday.Andinseveral
monthspeacewilldefinitelycometoSyriaifthey(Westerncountries)stop."
ThedowningofRussianSu-24bomberbyTurkey
OnNovember24,theTurkishAirForcesfighterjetshotdownaRussianSu-24Mbomber.AnkaraclaimstheSu-24Mbomberviolatedthe
TurkishairspaceintheareaoftheborderwithSyria.
However,RussiasDefenceMinistryhassaidtheSu-24MplanestayedexclusivelyovertheSyrianterritoryand"therewasnoviolationof
theTurkishairspace."
ThecrewoftheSu-24Mbombermanagedtoejectbutoneofthepilotswaskilledbygunfirefromtheground.Thesecondpilotwas
rescuedandtakentotheRussianairbase.
RussianmilitaryoperationinSyria
OnSeptember30RussiasFederationCouncilunanimouslyapprovedPresidentVladimirPutinsrequesttolaunchamilitaryoperationin
SyriaagainstIslamicStateandJabhatal-Nusraterroristgroups(outlawedinRussia).RussianAerospaceDefenseForcesdeliveredfirst
targetedairstrikesatmilitantspositionsonthesameday.
Morethan50jetsandhelicopterstakepartintheoperation,includingSu-34andSu-24Mfighterjets,Su-25aircraft,Su-30SMfighter
aircraft,andMi-8andMi-24helicopters.Sincethestartoftheoperation,Russianaviationmadehundredsofsorties,destroyeddozensof
ammunitiondepots,explosivesproductionplantsandcommandposts.
Senttime: 11/24/201501:35:19PM
Subject: FW:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"bloomberg.com,11/23
-----OriginalMessage-----
From:OstapKryvdyk[mailto:ostap.kryvdyk@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,November24,20151:31PM
To:MatthewBryza
Cc:StephenBlankGlenHowardMatthewCzekajPavelBaevJonChickyPaulGobleVladSocorAl
exMelikishviliWillemdeVogelClintonSmullyanRobSpringJohnBDunlopCrackerJackerzdd
eleon3@yahoo.comRomanZvarychRomanMashovetsPopadiuk,Roman
Subject:Re:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"bloomberg.com,11/23
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125052.htm
IfIwantedtofindaperfectexplanationabout"provokingweakness",thisisexactlythecase.
OnTue,Nov24,2015at4:15PM,MatthewBryzawrote:
>But,thatdoesn'tmeanPutinisn'tconsideringthemilitaryoptionin
>Ukraine.
>
>Hopefully,Turkey'sshootdownoftheSu-24todaywillcurtailsomeof
>Putin'smoreprovocativeprobes.
>
>OnTue,Nov24,2015at4:13PM,MatthewBryza
>
>wrote:
>>
>>Indeed.Costswouldbeenormous,justatthemomentwhenPutinseems
>>tohopeheiswrigglingoutoftheUkrainianboxinwhichhe
>>entrappedRussiabypretendingtobeFrance'spartnernowinfightingISIS....
>>
>>OnTue,Nov24,2015at3:36AM,StephenBlank
>>wrote:
>>>
>>>maybebutdonotjumptoconclusions,escalationinUkraine
>>>entailsseverecosts
>>>
>>>
>>>StephenBlank
>>>traininblank@aol.com
>>>
>>>
>>>-----OriginalMessage-----
>>>From:GlenHoward
>>>To:MatthewCzekajPavelBaev
>>>JonChickyPaulGoble
>>>socorMelikishvili,
>>>AlexWillemdeVogel
>>>ClintonSmullyanJr
>>>RobSpring
>>>
>>>MatthewBryzaTraininblank
>>>
>>>Cc:JohnBDunlopCrackerJackerz
>>>DionisiodeLeon
>>>RomanZvarychRomanMashovets
>>>Popadiuk,Roman
>>>OstapKryvdyk
>>>
>>>Sent:Mon,Nov23,20156:32pm
>>>Subject:Fwd:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"
>>>bloomberg.com,11/23
>>>
>>>SothisisPutin'sendgamebyfacilitatingthedestructionofthe
>>>powergridlinkingCrimea!SeebelowfromJ.D.ThisisPutin'sland
>>>bridgescenarioforlinkingNovorossiaallthewhilewearetalking
>>>totheRussiansaboutcooperatinginfightingISIS.Gottohandit
>>>toPutin.Theguyisabrilliantstrategist.ItisliketheMoscow
>>>bombingsalloveragain.Easytoblamesomeoneelseforstartingthewar.ThanksforsharingJ
ohn!
>>>
>>>Glen
>>>
>>>----------Forwardedmessage----------
>>>From:JohnBDunlop
>>>Date:Mon,Nov23,2015at3:11PM
>>>Subject:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"
>>>bloomberg.com,11/23
>>>To:"howard@jamestown.org"
>>>Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com",
>>>"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"
>>>
>>>
>>>TheRussian-annexedpeninsulaiscastintodarkness.Ifthepain
>>>getsworse,willtheKremlincarveoutaLANDBRIDGE,defyingtheWest?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>--
>>>Glen
>>>
>>>GlenE.Howard
>>>President
>>>TheJamestownFoundation
>>>1111SixteenthStreet,N.W.
>>>Suite320
>>>Washington,D.C.20036
>>
>>
>
Senttime: 11/24/201508:27:29AM
Subject: FW:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"bloomberg.com,11/23
From:StephenBlank[mailto:traininblank@aol.com]
Sent:Monday,November23,20155:37PM
To:howard@jamestown.orgczekaj@jamestown.orgPAVEL@prio.nojon.chicky@gmail.compaul.goble@gmail.com
socor@jamestown.orgAlex.Melikishvili@ihs.comdevogelwillem@gmail.comcis@mosbacherproperties.com
rspring@graciesquarecapital.commatthewbryza@gmail.com
Cc:JohnBDunlopgreycardinal@verizon.netddeleon3@yahoo.comzvarych@gmail.comromanmashovets@yahoo.com
Roman.Popadiuk@bingham.comostap.kryvdyk@gmail.com
Subject:Re:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"bloomberg.com,11/23
maybebutdonotjumptoconclusions,escalationinUkraineentailsseverecosts
StephenBlank
traininblank@aol.com
From:GlenHoward<howard@jamestown.org>
To:MatthewCzekaj<czekaj@jamestown.org>PavelBaev<PAVEL@prio.no>JonChicky<jon.chicky@gmail.com>PaulGoble
<paul.goble@gmail.com>socor<socor@jamestown.org>Melikishvili,Alex<Alex.Melikishvili@ihs.com>WillemdeVogel
<devogelwillem@gmail.com>ClintonSmullyanJr<cis@mosbacherproperties.com>RobSpring<rspring@graciesquarecapital.com>
MatthewBryza<matthewbryza@gmail.com>Traininblank<traininblank@aol.com>
Cc:JohnBDunlop<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>CrackerJackerz<greycardinal@verizon.net>DionisiodeLeon
<ddeleon3@yahoo.com>RomanZvarych<zvarych@gmail.com>RomanMashovets<romanmashovets@yahoo.com>Popadiuk,
Roman<Roman.Popadiuk@bingham.com>OstapKryvdyk<ostap.kryvdyk@gmail.com>
Sent:Mon,Nov23,20156:32pm
Subject:Fwd:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"bloomberg.com,11/23
SothisisPutin'sendgamebyfacilitatingthedestructionofthepowergridlinkingCrimea!SeebelowfromJ.D.ThisisPutin'sland
bridgescenarioforlinkingNovorossiaallthewhilewearetalkingtotheRussiansaboutcooperatinginfightingISIS.Gottohanditto
Putin.Theguyisabrilliantstrategist.ItisliketheMoscowbombingsalloveragain.Easytoblamesomeoneelseforstartingthewar.
ThanksforsharingJohn!
Glen
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,Nov23,2015at3:11PM
Subject:"SabotageinCrimearaisksmilitarymovebyPutin,"bloomberg.com,11/23
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
TheRussian-annexedpeninsulaiscastintodarkness.Ifthepaingetsworse,willtheKremlin
carveoutaLANDBRIDGE,defyingtheWest?
--
Glen
GlenE.Howard
President
TheJamestownFoundation
1111SixteenthStreet,N.W.
Suite320
Washington,D.C.20036
Senttime: 12/04/201503:56:24PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Cc: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
FW:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]Pomerantsev--
Subject:
Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Sent:Friday,December04,20156:54AM
Subject:Fwd:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]
Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Date:Fri,Dec4,2015at9:53AM
Subject:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....
[FP]Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:WP,AI,RFE/RL,WoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheWashingtonPostop-ed
AllyingwithPutinagainsttheIslamicStatewouldbeadevilsbargain
ByOleksandrTurchynovDecember3at8:10PM(December4printeditiontitledADevilsBargaininSyria)
OleksandrTurchynovissecretaryoftheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncilofUkraine.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/allying-with-putin-against-the-islamic-state-would-be-a-devils-
bargain/2015/12/03/c0deeaca-9871-11e5-b499-76cbec161973_story.html
WinstonChurchillwasundernoillusionsabouthiswartimealliancewithJosephStalin.IfHitlerinvadedhell,I
wouldmakeatleastafavorablereferencetothedevilintheHouseofCommons,heremarkedtoanaide.This
wasnotabondforgedinfriendshipandtrust.Itwasatemporarypartnershipofnecessityinthefaceofa
commonenemy.AssoonasNaziGermanywasdefeated,therealityofStalinsintentionsbecameclear.
PromisestoholdfreeelectionsinthecountriesunderSovietoccupationwerebroken,andtheWestspentthe
next40yearstryingtocontainthethreattheSovietUnionposed.
ThisneedstobekeptinmindaswecontemplateeventsinSyria.Intheaftermathofthehorrificterrorist
attacksinParisandthebombingofaRussianplaneovertheSinai,itisunderstandablethatWestern
governmentsshouldwanttoformthebroadestpossibleinternationalcoalition,includingwithRussia,todefeat
thoseresponsible.Butsharedgriefisnotthesameassharedinterests.CooperationwithRussiainthefight
againsttheIslamicStateneedstobecarefullyweighedagainstseveralbiggerforeignpolicyissues.
TheareaswhereRussiasinterestsinSyriaconflictwiththoseoftheWestremainatleastassignificantasthose
wheretheyoverlap.WhereastheWestspriorityisdestroyingtheIslamicState,Russiasprimaryaimisto
keeptheBasharal-Assadregimeinpower.Sofar,alargemajorityofRussianairstrikesinSyriahavebeen
directedagainstnon-IslamicStatetargets,includingmoderategroupssuchastheWestern-backedFreeSyrian
Armythatarehelpingfighttheterroristgroupontheground.Thesestrikeshavealsoexacerbatedtheflowof
SyrianrefugeestowardEurope.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdirectinterestsinSyriaasaregionalally,amarketforRussianmilitary
exportsandabasefortheRussiannavysMediterraneanfleet.Buthisapproachisinfluencedbywider
considerations,oneofwhichistopreventanotherauthoritarianregimefromsuccumbingtothedemandsofits
people.AswewellknowinUkraine,Putinisdeterminedtoresistthetideofglobaldemocraticchangeand
willingtouseviolenceagainstothercountriestostopit.Heseesfreedomasathreattohisownholdonpower
andanindicationofadvancingWesterninfluence.RussianpolicyinSyriaisframedbyanattitudeofstrategic
hostilitytowardtheWestanditsvalues.
WhiletheKremlinpretendstobefightingterrorisminSyria,Russiaitselfmeritsdesignationasastatesponsor
ofterrorism.ItsaggressionagainstUkrainehascostmorethan8,000lives,includingtheindiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasandthemurderofpoliticalopponentscarriedoutbyitsspecialforcesandRussian-
sponsoredterrorists.ItwasaRussian-suppliedBukmissilethatreportedlyshotdownMalaysiaAirlinesFlight
17inJulyoflastyear,resultinginthelossof298innocentlives.Morethan1.5millionpeopleinUkrainehave
beeninternallydisplacedasaresultofillegalRussianaggression.TheRussianstatehasshownitselfwillingto
carryouttheassassinationofregimecritics,bothathomeandabroad,usingterroristmethods.
YetnoneofthiswillpreventRussiafromtryingtoextractadvantagefromthewarinSyria.Putinisamasterof
tacticalopportunism,andinthepasttwoweeksRussianjetsinSyriahavebeendroppingbombsinscribedwith
themessageForParisinagestureofapparentsolidarity.PositionedasafriendoftheWestinitsfightagainst
terrorism,Putinhopestosecuretherelationshiphehasalwayswantedonethatsetsasideinternationallaw
andtherightsofsmallernationsinfavorofgreat-powerdealmakingandtheprinciplethatmightisright.
RussiahasalreadyinvokedthegrandallianceagainstHitlerasaprecedentforfightingtheIslamicState.Bein
nodoubtthatitwillalsodemandanewYaltaasthepriceofcooperationnow.InhisrecentspeechtotheUnited
Nations,Putinpraisedthepost-WorldWarIIagreementthatbeganthedivisionofEuropebyrecognizingthe
territorialgainsStalinachievedundertheNazi-Sovietpact.ThetownofYalta,ofcourse,nowliesinRussian-
occupiedCrimeaasapoignantreminderthatthepastliveswithus.AllPutinneedsisfortheWesttodrop
sanctionsandaccepthislandgrabinUkraineforthecircletobecomplete.
TheWestneedstobehardheadedinitsassessmentoftherisksinvolvedindoingbusinesswithRussiaover
Syriaandfirmaboutthelimitsofanycooperation.Islamistterrorismisamajorthreatandhasthecapacityto
causedeathandsufferingonahugescale.Itmustbedealtwithasamatterofurgentpriority.Yetthegreatest
long-termthreatstoapeacefulandliberalworldorderremainRussianterrorismandthedeterminationofa
revanchistKremlintoimposeanewsphereofinfluenceandsystematicallytrytodestabilizeitsneighborhood,
notonlyinUkrainebutalsointheCaucasus,theBalticStates,PolandandtheBalkans.Thecivilizedworldmust
defeatterrorism,notselectivelybutinallformsandonallfronts.
AmericanInterest
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/04/u-s-policy-to-ukraine-in-need-of-urgent-fix/
BattleforUkraine
USPolicytoUkraineinNeedofUrgentFix
DavidJ.Kramer
AmericaspaltrymilitaryaidtoKyivissendingthewrongmessagetoUkraineandtoPutin.
U.S.policytowardUkraineisinurgentneedofanoverhaul,andPresidentObamahimselfneedstoleadthecharge.Thefront-
pagestoryinTuesdaysWashingtonPostthatthenon-lethalassistancetheUnitedStateshasbeenprovidingtoUkraineis
outdatedandfallingapartunderscoredthatthereisnotimetowasteinfixingsomeseriousproblems.Threesuchproblemscanand
shouldbefixedquickly.
LetsstartwiththePostreport.AccordingtoreporterThomasGibbons-Neff,TheUnitedStateshasdeliveredmorethan$260
millioninnon-lethalmilitaryequipmenttohelpthegovernmentofUkraineinitsfightagainstaRussian-backedinsurgency,butsome
oftheU.S.-suppliedgearmeanttoprotectandtransportUkrainianmilitaryforcesislittlemorethanjunk.Gibbons-Neffcited,for
example,Humveesthatarenearlythirtyyearsold.
ProvidingsuchequipmenthasbeenablowtoUkrainiansmoraleandAmericasstandinginUkraine.IftheAmericansaregoing
tosendusequipment,dontsendussecondhandstuff,Gibbons-NeffquotesoneUkrainianspecialforcescommander.The
Pentagonshouldbeabletofindequipmentandmaterielthatismoremodernandingoodshape.Thisproblemshouldbeeasyto
address.
ThesecondproblemprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainetohelpitfendoffVladimirPutinsaggressionisharder,
becauseitwouldrequirethePresidenttoreversehimself.Congresshaspassedseveralpiecesoflegislationbylargebipartisan
majoritiescallingfortheprovisionoflethalarmstoUkraine,andvirtuallyeverymemberoftheCabinetaswellashisVice
PresidentsupportsuchastepPresidentObamaistheloneholdout.PresidentPetroPoroshenkoandotherseniorUkrainian
officialshaverequestedshoulder-mountedJavelinanti-tankmissilesandothersystemstohelpthwartfurtherRussianadvancesinto
Ukrainianterritory.Obamahasexplainedhisoppositiontotheirrequestsbywarningthatsuchamovewouldtriggerescalationby
Russia.AmorelikelyresultwouldbethatPutinwouldthinktwicebeforelaunchingfurtherintoUkraineinthefaceofaUkrainian
fightingforcethathasbeenbeefedupbyAmericananti-tankweapons.
Itsworthrecallingthe1994BudapestMemorandum,inwhichUkraineagreedtosurrenderthenuclearweaponsitinheritedfrom
thecollapseoftheUSSRinexchangeforapledgefromtheothersignatoriesRussia,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates
thattheywouldupholdandrespectUkrainessovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Whilenotaformaltreaty,theBudapest
MemorandumplayedakeyroleinreducingtheproliferationofweaponsofmassdestructionbecauseUkraineliveduptoitsend
ofthedeal.Russia,bycontrast,hasnotbyinvadingitsneighborandannexingCrimea.Weshouldliveuptoourendofthedealby
complyingwiththeUkrainianpleasfordefensiveweaponstheyarenotaskingforU.S.troopsonthegroundbutthemeansby
whichtodefendthemselves.
ThethirdproblemisthefactthatObamahasnotsetfootinUkraineoncesincebecomingPresident,thoughhedidtravelthere
oncewhilehewasintheSenate.ThebiggestchallengeinEuropeindecadeshasbeenRussiasinvasionofitsneighbor,acountry
of45millionpeople.Inrecognitionofthat,mostWesternleadershavevisitedKyivatleastoncetoshowUkrainianstheirsupport.
CouldObamanothavetackedonaquickvisitwhileinEurope,forexampleafterhisrecenttriptoParis?
Nextweek,VicePresidentBidenwillbemakinghisfifthvisittoUkraine,buthisengagement,whilelaudable,isnosubstitutefor
much-neededengagementbyhisboss.SinceRussiasinvasionofUkrainealmosttwoyearsago,PresidentObamahasmetwith
PutinmoretimesthanhehaswithPoroshenko,despiteassertinginJanuaryinhisStateoftheUnionspeechthatheis
leadingeffortstoisolateRussia.AnObamavisittoKyivtodemonstratesolidaritywiththeUkrainianpeoplewouldbeahuge
boosttoUkrainethereis,afterall,nothinglikeAirForceOnelandinginonescountryandallthatcomeswithit.
TheObamaAdministrationdeservescreditforthesanctionsithasimposedagainstthePutinregime,thoughmoreshouldbedone
topreempt,notreactto,Putinsaggression.TheAdministrationhasrightlypressedUkrainianleaderstogetseriousaboutfighting
corruption,andithasprovidedseveralbilliondollarsinassistancethroughloans,thoughitcoulddomore(andtheEuropeans
shouldbedoingmuchmore).WeshouldalsoprovidemuchmorehumanitarianassistanceforthoseUkrainiansdisplacedand
affectedbyRussiasinvasion.
TheproblemsidentifiedaboveareseriousandbadlyhurtingtheU.S.imageinUkraine.TheyalsosendthewrongsignaltoPutin:
thatwearenotpayingsufficientattentiontoUkraineatatimewhenitneedsusmorethanever.ThePresidentshouldorderhis
teamtoproperlyequipUkraineandreversehisownobjectionstoprovidinglethalassistance.Itwouldbebestifheannounced
suchcorrectionsinpolicyinpersoninKyiv.
DavidJ.KramerisseniordirectorforHumanRightsandDemocracyattheMcCainInstituteforInternationalLeadership.
WindowonEurasia[PaulGoble]
PutinWorriedaboutStabintheBackHisOwnandatHome,UkrainianCommentatorSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/putin-worried-about-stab-in-back-his.html
CrimeanTatarsFormNewOrganizationtoPressforRestorationofAutonomywithinUkraine
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/crimean-tatars-form-new-organization-to.html
DespiteMoscowsCharges,MuslimsinUkraineFightingforUkraine,NotforISIS
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/despite-moscows-charges-muslims-in.html
From:ForeignPolicy<email@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:FlashPoints
B a y n a z a r M o h a m m a d N a z a r w a s a h u s b a n d a n d a f a t h e r o f f o u r - - a n d a p a t i e n t k i l l e d d u r i n g t h e a t t a c k o n t h e M S F h o s p i t a l i n K u n d u z . T h i s i s h i s s t o r y .
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FLASH
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ARGUMENT

TheTVvs.theFridge
byPeterPomerantsev,NathanGamester
InRussia,economicdeclineisn'ttranslating

intodissatisfactionwithPutin.Here'swhy.

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REPORT

RussiaPoursHotOilonWounded
TiesWithTurkey
byKeithJohnson

AweekafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianjet,
Moscowstruckbackwithsharpallegations
thatAnkaraisunderwritingtheIslamicStates
illicitoilbusiness.Whatonceseemeda
beautifulfriendshipisnowincreasingly
vicious.

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reserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONTCIRCLENW,
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---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/putins-war-on-terror-could-backfire/
TherecanbenodoubtthattheRussiansarewinningtheMiddleEastpropagandawar.ButitsnotjusttheMarxistfar-leftthatis
willingtobelievewhateverVladimirPutinandhismouthpieceRussiaToday(RT)aresaying.Someconservativesandself-
describedTeaPartyleadershavealsoacceptedthedisinformationtheRussiansareputtingout,eventotheextentofaffirmingthe
RussianpresidentasaChristianstatesmanleadingtheglobalwaronterror.

ConsiderChuckBaldwinspiece,RootinforPutin,whichinsiststhatRussiasVladimirPutinistheonlyonefightingaJustWar
intheMiddleEastrightnow.Baldwin,aChristianpastordedicatedtopreservingthehistoricprinciplesuponwhichAmericawas
founded,wasthepresidentialcandidatein2008oftheConstitutionParty,agroupassociatedwiththelateconservativeicon
HowardPhillips.
ItissimplyamazingthatanyconservativewouldinsistthatPutin,who,despitedroppingthecommunistlabelisstillalliedwithIran,
CommunistChina,NorthKoreaandCuba,issomehowdoingtherightthinginSyria,along-timeSoviet/Russianclientstate.What
PutinisdoingisentirelyconsistentwithwhattheSovietsalwaysdid.Theyaretryingtosaveaclientstatefromwhatstartedoutas
apopularrebellion.
Inhiscolumn,BaldwinwentontolabelBarackObama,DavidCameronofBritain,BenjaminNetanyahuofIsrael,KingSalmanof
SaudiArabia,andRecepTayyipErdoganofTurkeyasinternationalgangsters.
ItistruethatObama,throughafewofAmericasAraballies,hasbeensupportingthecauseofsomejihadistsandterroristsin
theMiddleEast.SaudiArabiaandQatarhavebeenimplicatedinthesedangerousschemes,oneofwhichculminatedinthe
BenghazimassacreoffourAmericansinLibya.ThatwasatreasonousactionthatshouldsinkHillaryClintonspresidential
campaignandcouldhavejustifiedimpeachmentchargesagainstObamahimself.Mrs.ClintonwasObamasSecretaryofStateat
thetime.
TheseoperationsintheMiddleEasthavebeencharacterizedbyformerCIAofficerClareLopezoftheCitizensCommissionon
BenghaziasswitchingsidesintheWaronTerror.
ButtheideathatPutinhascleanhandsintheMiddleEastisabsolutelyridiculous.ConsideringthathewasaSovietKGBspyand
actuallyheadedoneoftheKGBssuccessoragencies,theideathatPutinhassuddenlyhadaDamascusRoadconversionto
Christianityissimplyludicrous.HisforeignpolicyisverysimilartothatoftheoldSovietUnion.
Sincetheforeignpolicyhasmostlyremainedthesame,Sovietfinancingandsponsorshipofinternationalterroristnetworks,many
ofthemlinkedtoArabandMuslimgroups,alsohavetobetakenintoconsiderationhere.Itisreasonabletoassumethatthe
RussianshavemaintainedatleastpartsofthesenetworksforapurposethatweseeinthebackingofBasharAssadinSyria.
Indeed,writerandresearcherChristianGomezhastracedtherootsofISIStotheIslamicRevivalParty,createdbytheKGB,
duringthefinaldaysoftheoldSovietUnion.U.S.ArmyColonelSteveWarren,aspokesmanforCombinedJointTaskForce
OperationInherentResolve,hasnotedthattheRussiansaredoinglittleinSyriatofightISISterroristsandthatEverythingthey
[theRussians]aredoingistosupportAssad,tokeepAssadinpower.Inotherwords,PutiniscontinuingacleverSoviet-style
strategythatseekstomaintainAssadinpowerwhileusingISISforhisownpurposes.Oneofthosepurposes,asreflectedinRT
propaganda,istomakePutinlooklikeaterroristfighter.
BaldwinisnttheonlypersonalityontherightdupedbyPutinandhispropagandamachine.TheCEOofagroupcallingitself
simplytheTeaPartyhasdistributedanarticleclaimingthatRussiahasproducedstunningphotographicevidencethatISISoil
wasbeingsmuggledintoTurkeyonanindustrialscale.
Thestunningphotographicevidenceshowsnothingofthesort.NatashaBertrandofBusinessInsiderexaminedtheRussianmaps
andfoundthatthethreemainroutestheRussiansclaimISIShadallegedlybeenusingtotransportillicitoilintoTurkeyarenot
primarilycontrolledbytheIslamicState.TurkishPresidentErdoganhascountered:Whoisbuyingoil(fromISIS)?Letmesayit.
GeorgeHaswani,holderofaRussianpassportandaSyriannational,isoneofthebiggestmerchantsinthisbusiness.Henoted
thattheU.S.TreasuryDepartmentimposedsanctionsonHaswani,whowasalsoplacedonanEUsanctionslist,forservingas
middlemanforoilpurchasesbytheSyrianregimefromtheISISgroup.
IfyouhaventheardaboutthesanctionsontheindividualsandnetworksprovidingsupporttoSyriaandfacilitatingSyrianoil
purchasesfromISIS,youareavictimoftheslickpropagandathatisbeingspreadaroundtheworldbysuchoutletsasRT.Itisa
factthattheRussianclaimsagainstTurkeyaretakingprecedence,evenintheWesternmedia,overthefactsontheground,as
determinednotonlybytheU.S.TreasurybuttheU.S.Army.ColonelWarrensaid,WeflatlyrejectanynotionthattheTurksare
somehowworkingwithISIL,hesaid.Thatispreposterous.
TheTeaPartyarticleabouttheRussianclaimswaslifteddirectlyfromtheInfowars.comsiteofRussianapologistAlexJones,
whojustscoredamajorinterviewwithGOPpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrump.NorespectableTeaPartygroupshouldhave
anythingtodowithAlexJones,whodefendedtheRussianinvasionofitsformerrepublicGeorgiain2008.Trumpsdecision
toappearonhisshowwasextremelyfoolish.HeapparentlywasnotawarethatJonespromotesclaimsthatactualterroristattacks,
suchastheBostonMarathonbombingscarriedoutbytwoMuslimsfromRussia,werefalseflagsperpetratedbyU.S.police
andlawenforcementagencies.HiswebsiteranaVoiceofRussiastoryclaimingthedeadandwoundedwereactorsplastered
withfakeblood.
RatherthantreatPutinasagoodguyorally,GOPpresidentialcandidateSenatorMarcoRubio(FL)arguesthatTurkeyisa
memberofNATOandanallythatdeservesthefullbackingoftheUnitedStates.HenotedthattheRussiansweretargeting
Turkmen-populatedpocketsofnorthernSyriaratherthanterritorycontrolledbyISISandthatMostRussianmilitarystrikes
sincetheendofSeptemberhavebeennon-ISIStargets,includingmanycivilianareas,revealingthatRussiadoesnotshareour
interestinconfrontinganddefeatingISISbutinsteadisintentonproppinguptheAssadregime.
BeforeheassumedtheroleasaleaderoftheSunnisintheMiddleEast,mobilizingforcesagainstShiteIranandSyria,Erdogan
wasknownforhisanti-Sovietviews.Indeed,hewasananti-communistinhisyouth.AsaresultofRussiasincreasedmilitary
involvementinSyria,heseemstohaveawakenedtothefactthatPutinhasreturnedtohisSovietrootsandthatTurkeysfuturelies
withNATOandtheWest.TurkeyjoinedNATO,originallyconceivedasananti-Sovietmilitaryalliance,in1952.
AssumingErdoganisanIslamistofsomekind,assomeconservativescontend,itmightmakestrategicsensefortheWesttoback
himforthatreasonaloneinhisbattlewithRussia.Afterall,mostofRussias14millionMuslimsareSunnis.RTitself
recentlyhighlightedhowthousandsofMuslimshadgatheredincentralMoscowtowitnesstheopeningofoneofthebiggest
mosquesinEurope.TheceremonywasattendedbyPutinandErdogan,whohadbeenconsideredtobeonfriendlyterms.
TheirrelationshipturnedsourafterTurkeyshotdowntheRussianwarplane,anditseemstobedeterioratingfurther.
AsnotedbyIlyaArkhipovofBloombergBusiness,Putinusedhisannualstate-of-the-nationaddresstoattackTurkeyand
Erdoganinverypersonalandreligiousterms.Putinsaid,OnlyAllahknowswhytheydidthis.AnditseemsthatAllahdecidedto
punishtherulingganginTurkeybystrippingitofcommonsenseandreason.AnalystTimothyAshtoldBloombergthatThe
religiousanglebeingusedbyPutinisunlikelytogodownwellintheregion,whereErdoganisstillseenasadefenderoftheSunni
faith.
Oneobserverhasnoted,inregardtoRussianinvolvementinArab/MuslimterrorismandnowISIS,thatthemonsterthatthe
USSRcreatedmayhavegrowntoobig,andthatitmayeventuallyattackitscreator.InthecaseofTurkey,Putinisfacinga
Muslimproblemofhisownmaking.
From: LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>
Senttime: 11/14/201503:01:47PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Cc: kramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:Paristragedy
Iwouldliketohope.ButIaminaverygloomymood...
iPad
15.2015.,1:44,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>():
ViennastumbledoverAsad......thecoalitionisnotassured.
SentfrommyiPad
OnNov14,2015,at5:41PM,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>wrote:
Indeed,theneedofthe"coalition"andofferof'helpininvestigatingtheParisterroristact".
TheWestwillagreetohavecoalition!
iPad
http://www.newsru.com/russia/14nov2015/putinsays2.html
Alreadyhas.....andhestillhasnotcalledthedownedplaneterrorism.
SentfrommyiPad
OnNov14,2015,at4:57PM,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>wrote:
PariscarnageissuchapresentforPutin.Nowhewillbeyellingaboutthecommonthreatandgetting
togethertofightthecommonenemy...
iPad
No,Imeantthat.TheonlythingIcanrememberyougettingwrongisthecontentionthat
Medvedev'spresidencydidn'tmatter.
SentfrommyiPad
OnNov14,2015,at7:39AM,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>wrote:
Ididnotmeanthat.IwassowrongonsomanyoccasionsandIadmitthisfact.
SimplyIforgotwhenIwaswrong!
iPad
14.2015.,15:22,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
():
WhichmeansthatShevtsovawasalwaysright,andMcFaulwas
not
OnNov14,2015,at7:22AM,LiliaShevtsova
<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>wrote:
Inthosetimeshewasrebuttingmeaswell...Butnot
today.
iPad
14.2015.,15:20,RobertOtto
<robertotto25@gmail.com>():
Hewas,afterafashion,rebuttingyou,
no?
OnNov14,2015,at7:20
AM,LiliaShevtsova
<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>
wrote:
Youareamazing!Let'scall
Mikeour"temporaryally"
-Lenin'sexpressiononmy
waytoMoscowfromSalt
Lakecity.Mormonsare
wonderfultheydon'tdrink
teaandcoffee.
iPad
14.2015.,14:44,
RobertOtto
<robertotto25@gmail.com>
():
Is
remembering
thisarticle
from1999
harassing
him?
http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right
Historians
willsomeday
writethat
Russiare-
enteredthe
Western
communityof
statesasa
market
democracyat
theendofthe
20thcentury.
Youwouldn't
thinkso,
however,
fromthe
vituperative
and
pessimistic
toneofmost
contemporary
commentary
intheUnited
Statesabout
Russiaand
U.S.-Russian
relations.
Focusingon
luridaccounts
ofRussian
money
laundering,
cronyism,
and
widespread
politicaland
economic
disarray,
politicians
andpundits
haveblasted
theClinton
administration
for
mishandlinga
crucial
strategic
relationship
and"losing"
Russia.
On
Nov
11,
2015,
at
12:04
PM,
David
Kramer
<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
wrote:
We'll
see...
On
11/11/15
11:59
AM,
"Lilia
Shevtsova"
wrote:
Yes,
he
asked
about
David.
I
think
he
will
be
glad
to
see
him.
He
also
shared
with
me
information
about
Hilary
team
that
is
dealing
with
Russia.
He
said
that
Gordon
is
the
key
guy
and
agreed
with
me
that
he
is
terrible...but
he
said
that
they
consult
with
him
on
certain
issues...
Anyway,
I
like
him.
He
was
nice
to
us
and
generous.
He
was
attacking
the
guys
that
I
don't
like.
Thus,
stop
harassing
him...
iPad
11
.
2015
.,
19:53,
David
Kramer
():
I
need
to
contact
him
to
go
out
there
and
interview
him
for
my
book.
Maybe
it
won't
be
so
bad
then
again...
On
11/11/15
11:45
AM,
"Lilia
Shevtsova"
wrote:
Oh..
He
was
asking
about
you
with
great
sympathy!!
At
the
same
time
we
made
shit
of
Rojansky
and
Legvold.
We
had
desert
erasing
Tom.
It
was
a
very
nice
day!
iPad
11
.
2015
.,

19:28,
David
Kramer
():
It's
the
weather!
On
11/11/15
11:05
AM,
"Lilia
Shevtsova"
wrote:
Mike
was
so
good
yesterday
that
I
forgot
about
the
reset.
Moreover,
he
only
smiled
when
we
with
Larry
Diamond
started
to
pester
him
with
it....
I
even
pitied
him...
I
asked
about
his
old
essay.
He
was
amused
a
bit
but
promised
to
find....
Today
we
will
have
the
informal
discussion
and
I
see
what
he
and
Condi
think...
I
feel
here
with
these
guys
more
comfortable
than
at
the
DC
think
tanks...
Maybe
this
is
California
air...paradise...
iPad
9
.
2015
.,

22:33,
Robert
Otto
():
Thank
you.
On
Nov
9,
2015,
at
2:10
PM,
Lilia
Shevtsova
wrote:
I
am
on
my
way
to
SF.
I
will
ask
him.
L
iPad
9
.
2015
.,

13:16,
Robert
Otto
():
Lilia
When
you
are
out
there,
could
you
ask
Mike
for
a
copy
of
his
1990
San
Jose
Mercury
article
that
he
mentions
in
his
lecture?
The
reference
is
in
both
videos
I
sent.
It
would
be
useful
to
have
a
copy
for
David's
book.
Good
luck
b
From: LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>
Senttime: 11/14/201504:39:47AM
Cc: kramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:McFaul
Ididnotmeanthat.IwassowrongonsomanyoccasionsandIadmitthisfact.SimplyIforgotwhenIwaswrong!
iPad
14.2015.,15:22,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>():
WhichmeansthatShevtsovawasalwaysright,andMcFaulwasnot
OnNov14,2015,at7:22AM,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>wrote:
Inthosetimeshewasrebuttingmeaswell...Butnottoday.
iPad
14.2015.,15:20,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>():
Hewas,afterafashion,rebuttingyou,no?
OnNov14,2015,at7:20AM,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>
wrote:
Youareamazing!Let'scallMikeour"temporaryally"-Lenin'sexpressionon
mywaytoMoscowfromSaltLakecity.Mormonsarewonderfultheydon't
drinkteaandcoffee.
iPad
14.2015.,14:44,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
():
Isrememberingthisarticlefrom1999harassinghim?
http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right
HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredthe
Westerncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheend
ofthe20thcentury.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthe
vituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporary
commentaryintheUnitedStatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-
Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoney
laundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpoliticalandeconomic
disarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClinton
administrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationshipand
"losing"Russia.
OnNov11,2015,at12:04PM,DavidKramer
<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
We'llsee...
On11/11/1511:59AM,"LiliaShevtsova"
<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>wrote:
Yes,heaskedaboutDavid.Ithink
hewillbegladtoseehim.
Healsosharedwithmeinformation
aboutHilaryteamthatisdealing
withRussia.HesaidthatGordonis
thekeyguyandagreedwithmethat
heisterrible...buthesaidthatthey
consultwithhimoncertain
issues...
Anyway,Ilikehim.Hewasniceto
usandgenerous.Hewasattacking
the
guysthatIdon'tlike.
Thus,stopharassinghim...
iPad
11.2015.,
19:53,DavidKramer
():
Ineedtocontacthimto
gooutthereand
interviewhimformy
book.
Maybeitwon'tbeso
badthenagain...
On
11/11/15
11:45
AM,"Lilia
Shevtsova"
wrote:
Oh..He
was
asking
aboutyou
withgreat
sympathy!!
Atthe
sametime
wemade
shitof
Rojansky
and
Legvold.
Wehad
desert
erasing
Tom.It
wasa
verynice
day!
iPad
11
.
2015
.,

19:28,
David
Kramer
():
It's
the
weather!
On
11/11/15
11:05
AM,
"Lilia
Shevtsova"
wrote:
Mike
was
so
good
yesterday
that
I
forgot
about
the
reset.
Moreover,
he
only
smiled
when
we
with
Larry
Diamond
started
to
pester
him
with
it....
I
even
pitied
him...
I
asked
about
his
old
essay.
He
was
amused
a
bit
but
promised
to
find....
Today
we
will
have
the
informal
discussion
and
I
see
what
he
and
Condi
think...
I
feel
here
with
these
guys
more
comfortable
than
at
the
DC
think
tanks...
Maybe
this
is
California
air...paradise...
iPad
9
.
2015
.,

22:33,
Robert
Otto
():
Thank
you.
On
Nov
9,
2015,
at
2:10
PM,
Lilia
Shevtsova
wrote:
I
am
on
my
way
to
SF.
I
will
ask
him.
L
iPad
9
.
2015
.,

13:16,
Robert
Otto
():
Lilia
When
you
are
out
there,
could
you
ask
Mike
for
a
copy
of
his
1990
San
Jose
Mercury
article
that
he
mentions
in
his
lecture?
The
reference
is
in
both
videos
I
sent.
It
would
be
useful
to
have
a
copy
for
David's
book.
Good
luck
b
Senttime: 12/04/201503:56:24PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]Pomerantsev--
Subject:
Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Sent:Friday,December04,20156:54AM
Subject:Fwd:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]
Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Subject:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....
[FP]Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:WP,AI,RFE/RL,WoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheWashingtonPostop-ed
AllyingwithPutinagainsttheIslamicStatewouldbeadevilsbargain
ByOleksandrTurchynovDecember3at8:10PM(December4printeditiontitledADevilsBargaininSyria)
OleksandrTurchynovissecretaryoftheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncilofUkraine.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/allying-with-putin-against-the-islamic-state-would-be-a-devils-
bargain/2015/12/03/c0deeaca-9871-11e5-b499-76cbec161973_story.html
WinstonChurchillwasundernoillusionsabouthiswartimealliancewithJosephStalin.IfHitlerinvadedhell,I
wouldmakeatleastafavorablereferencetothedevilintheHouseofCommons,heremarkedtoanaide.This
wasnotabondforgedinfriendshipandtrust.Itwasatemporarypartnershipofnecessityinthefaceofa
commonenemy.AssoonasNaziGermanywasdefeated,therealityofStalinsintentionsbecameclear.
PromisestoholdfreeelectionsinthecountriesunderSovietoccupationwerebroken,andtheWestspentthe
next40yearstryingtocontainthethreattheSovietUnionposed.
ThisneedstobekeptinmindaswecontemplateeventsinSyria.Intheaftermathofthehorrificterrorist
attacksinParisandthebombingofaRussianplaneovertheSinai,itisunderstandablethatWestern
governmentsshouldwanttoformthebroadestpossibleinternationalcoalition,includingwithRussia,todefeat
thoseresponsible.Butsharedgriefisnotthesameassharedinterests.CooperationwithRussiainthefight
againsttheIslamicStateneedstobecarefullyweighedagainstseveralbiggerforeignpolicyissues.
TheareaswhereRussiasinterestsinSyriaconflictwiththoseoftheWestremainatleastassignificantasthose
wheretheyoverlap.WhereastheWestspriorityisdestroyingtheIslamicState,Russiasprimaryaimisto
keeptheBasharal-Assadregimeinpower.Sofar,alargemajorityofRussianairstrikesinSyriahavebeen
directedagainstnon-IslamicStatetargets,includingmoderategroupssuchastheWestern-backedFreeSyrian
Armythatarehelpingfighttheterroristgroupontheground.Thesestrikeshavealsoexacerbatedtheflowof
SyrianrefugeestowardEurope.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdirectinterestsinSyriaasaregionalally,amarketforRussianmilitary
exportsandabasefortheRussiannavysMediterraneanfleet.Buthisapproachisinfluencedbywider
considerations,oneofwhichistopreventanotherauthoritarianregimefromsuccumbingtothedemandsofits
people.AswewellknowinUkraine,Putinisdeterminedtoresistthetideofglobaldemocraticchangeand
willingtouseviolenceagainstothercountriestostopit.Heseesfreedomasathreattohisownholdonpower
andanindicationofadvancingWesterninfluence.RussianpolicyinSyriaisframedbyanattitudeofstrategic
hostilitytowardtheWestanditsvalues.
WhiletheKremlinpretendstobefightingterrorisminSyria,Russiaitselfmeritsdesignationasastatesponsor
ofterrorism.ItsaggressionagainstUkrainehascostmorethan8,000lives,includingtheindiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasandthemurderofpoliticalopponentscarriedoutbyitsspecialforcesandRussian-
sponsoredterrorists.ItwasaRussian-suppliedBukmissilethatreportedlyshotdownMalaysiaAirlinesFlight
17inJulyoflastyear,resultinginthelossof298innocentlives.Morethan1.5millionpeopleinUkrainehave
beeninternallydisplacedasaresultofillegalRussianaggression.TheRussianstatehasshownitselfwillingto
carryouttheassassinationofregimecritics,bothathomeandabroad,usingterroristmethods.
YetnoneofthiswillpreventRussiafromtryingtoextractadvantagefromthewarinSyria.Putinisamasterof
tacticalopportunism,andinthepasttwoweeksRussianjetsinSyriahavebeendroppingbombsinscribedwith
themessageForParisinagestureofapparentsolidarity.PositionedasafriendoftheWestinitsfightagainst
terrorism,Putinhopestosecuretherelationshiphehasalwayswantedonethatsetsasideinternationallaw
andtherightsofsmallernationsinfavorofgreat-powerdealmakingandtheprinciplethatmightisright.
RussiahasalreadyinvokedthegrandallianceagainstHitlerasaprecedentforfightingtheIslamicState.Bein
nodoubtthatitwillalsodemandanewYaltaasthepriceofcooperationnow.InhisrecentspeechtotheUnited
Nations,Putinpraisedthepost-WorldWarIIagreementthatbeganthedivisionofEuropebyrecognizingthe
territorialgainsStalinachievedundertheNazi-Sovietpact.ThetownofYalta,ofcourse,nowliesinRussian-
occupiedCrimeaasapoignantreminderthatthepastliveswithus.AllPutinneedsisfortheWesttodrop
sanctionsandaccepthislandgrabinUkraineforthecircletobecomplete.
TheWestneedstobehardheadedinitsassessmentoftherisksinvolvedindoingbusinesswithRussiaover
Syriaandfirmaboutthelimitsofanycooperation.Islamistterrorismisamajorthreatandhasthecapacityto
causedeathandsufferingonahugescale.Itmustbedealtwithasamatterofurgentpriority.Yetthegreatest
long-termthreatstoapeacefulandliberalworldorderremainRussianterrorismandthedeterminationofa
revanchistKremlintoimposeanewsphereofinfluenceandsystematicallytrytodestabilizeitsneighborhood,
notonlyinUkrainebutalsointheCaucasus,theBalticStates,PolandandtheBalkans.Thecivilizedworldmust
defeatterrorism,notselectivelybutinallformsandonallfronts.
AmericanInterest
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/04/u-s-policy-to-ukraine-in-need-of-urgent-fix/
BattleforUkraine
USPolicytoUkraineinNeedofUrgentFix
DavidJ.Kramer
AmericaspaltrymilitaryaidtoKyivissendingthewrongmessagetoUkraineandtoPutin.
U.S.policytowardUkraineisinurgentneedofanoverhaul,andPresidentObamahimselfneedstoleadthecharge.Thefront-
pagestoryinTuesdaysWashingtonPostthatthenon-lethalassistancetheUnitedStateshasbeenprovidingtoUkraineis
outdatedandfallingapartunderscoredthatthereisnotimetowasteinfixingsomeseriousproblems.Threesuchproblemscanand
shouldbefixedquickly.
LetsstartwiththePostreport.AccordingtoreporterThomasGibbons-Neff,TheUnitedStateshasdeliveredmorethan$260
millioninnon-lethalmilitaryequipmenttohelpthegovernmentofUkraineinitsfightagainstaRussian-backedinsurgency,butsome
oftheU.S.-suppliedgearmeanttoprotectandtransportUkrainianmilitaryforcesislittlemorethanjunk.Gibbons-Neffcited,for
example,Humveesthatarenearlythirtyyearsold.
ProvidingsuchequipmenthasbeenablowtoUkrainiansmoraleandAmericasstandinginUkraine.IftheAmericansaregoing
tosendusequipment,dontsendussecondhandstuff,Gibbons-NeffquotesoneUkrainianspecialforcescommander.The
Pentagonshouldbeabletofindequipmentandmaterielthatismoremodernandingoodshape.Thisproblemshouldbeeasyto
address.
ThesecondproblemprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainetohelpitfendoffVladimirPutinsaggressionisharder,
becauseitwouldrequirethePresidenttoreversehimself.Congresshaspassedseveralpiecesoflegislationbylargebipartisan
majoritiescallingfortheprovisionoflethalarmstoUkraine,andvirtuallyeverymemberoftheCabinetaswellashisVice
PresidentsupportsuchastepPresidentObamaistheloneholdout.PresidentPetroPoroshenkoandotherseniorUkrainian
officialshaverequestedshoulder-mountedJavelinanti-tankmissilesandothersystemstohelpthwartfurtherRussianadvancesinto
Ukrainianterritory.Obamahasexplainedhisoppositiontotheirrequestsbywarningthatsuchamovewouldtriggerescalationby
Russia.AmorelikelyresultwouldbethatPutinwouldthinktwicebeforelaunchingfurtherintoUkraineinthefaceofaUkrainian
fightingforcethathasbeenbeefedupbyAmericananti-tankweapons.
Itsworthrecallingthe1994BudapestMemorandum,inwhichUkraineagreedtosurrenderthenuclearweaponsitinheritedfrom
thecollapseoftheUSSRinexchangeforapledgefromtheothersignatoriesRussia,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates
thattheywouldupholdandrespectUkrainessovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Whilenotaformaltreaty,theBudapest
MemorandumplayedakeyroleinreducingtheproliferationofweaponsofmassdestructionbecauseUkraineliveduptoitsend
ofthedeal.Russia,bycontrast,hasnotbyinvadingitsneighborandannexingCrimea.Weshouldliveuptoourendofthedealby
complyingwiththeUkrainianpleasfordefensiveweaponstheyarenotaskingforU.S.troopsonthegroundbutthemeansby
whichtodefendthemselves.
ThethirdproblemisthefactthatObamahasnotsetfootinUkraineoncesincebecomingPresident,thoughhedidtravelthere
oncewhilehewasintheSenate.ThebiggestchallengeinEuropeindecadeshasbeenRussiasinvasionofitsneighbor,acountry
of45millionpeople.Inrecognitionofthat,mostWesternleadershavevisitedKyivatleastoncetoshowUkrainianstheirsupport.
CouldObamanothavetackedonaquickvisitwhileinEurope,forexampleafterhisrecenttriptoParis?
Nextweek,VicePresidentBidenwillbemakinghisfifthvisittoUkraine,buthisengagement,whilelaudable,isnosubstitutefor
much-neededengagementbyhisboss.SinceRussiasinvasionofUkrainealmosttwoyearsago,PresidentObamahasmetwith
PutinmoretimesthanhehaswithPoroshenko,despiteassertinginJanuaryinhisStateoftheUnionspeechthatheis
leadingeffortstoisolateRussia.AnObamavisittoKyivtodemonstratesolidaritywiththeUkrainianpeoplewouldbeahuge
boosttoUkrainethereis,afterall,nothinglikeAirForceOnelandinginonescountryandallthatcomeswithit.
TheObamaAdministrationdeservescreditforthesanctionsithasimposedagainstthePutinregime,thoughmoreshouldbedone
topreempt,notreactto,Putinsaggression.TheAdministrationhasrightlypressedUkrainianleaderstogetseriousaboutfighting
corruption,andithasprovidedseveralbilliondollarsinassistancethroughloans,thoughitcoulddomore(andtheEuropeans
shouldbedoingmuchmore).WeshouldalsoprovidemuchmorehumanitarianassistanceforthoseUkrainiansdisplacedand
affectedbyRussiasinvasion.
TheproblemsidentifiedaboveareseriousandbadlyhurtingtheU.S.imageinUkraine.TheyalsosendthewrongsignaltoPutin:
thatwearenotpayingsufficientattentiontoUkraineatatimewhenitneedsusmorethanever.ThePresidentshouldorderhis
teamtoproperlyequipUkraineandreversehisownobjectionstoprovidinglethalassistance.Itwouldbebestifheannounced
suchcorrectionsinpolicyinpersoninKyiv.
DavidJ.KramerisseniordirectorforHumanRightsandDemocracyattheMcCainInstituteforInternationalLeadership.
WindowonEurasia[PaulGoble]
PutinWorriedaboutStabintheBackHisOwnandatHome,UkrainianCommentatorSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/putin-worried-about-stab-in-back-his.html
CrimeanTatarsFormNewOrganizationtoPressforRestorationofAutonomywithinUkraine
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/crimean-tatars-form-new-organization-to.html
DespiteMoscowsCharges,MuslimsinUkraineFightingforUkraine,NotforISIS
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/despite-moscows-charges-muslims-in.html
From:ForeignPolicy<email@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:FlashPoints
B a y n a z a r M o h a m m a d N a z a r w a s a h u s b a n d a n d a f a t h e r o f f o u r - - a n d a p a t i e n t k i l l e d d u r i n g t h e a t t a c k o n t h e M S F h o s p i t a l i n K u n d u z . T h i s i s h i s s t o r y .
Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.Pleasefeelfreetoforwardittoafriend.

FLASH
POINTS

HighlightsfromForeign
Policy

Friday,December4,2015 SUBSCRIBETO
FP

FollowUs:
ARGUMENT

TheTVvs.theFridge
byPeterPomerantsev,NathanGamester
InRussia,economicdeclineisn'ttranslating

intodissatisfactionwithPutin.Here'swhy.

MORE

REPORT

RussiaPoursHotOilonWounded
TiesWithTurkey
byKeithJohnson

AweekafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianjet,
Moscowstruckbackwithsharpallegations
thatAnkaraisunderwritingtheIslamicStates
illicitoilbusiness.Whatonceseemeda
beautifulfriendshipisnowincreasingly
vicious.

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UPDATE ADVERTISE ForeignPolicyMagazineispublishedbytheFP
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UNSUBSCRIBE ANDLICENSING contents2015TheSlateGroup,LLC.Allrights
reserved.ForeignPolicy,11DUPONTCIRCLENW,
PRIVACY
SUITE600,WASHINGTONDC20036
POLICY

From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/putins-war-on-terror-could-backfire/
TherecanbenodoubtthattheRussiansarewinningtheMiddleEastpropagandawar.ButitsnotjusttheMarxistfar-leftthatis
willingtobelievewhateverVladimirPutinandhismouthpieceRussiaToday(RT)aresaying.Someconservativesandself-
describedTeaPartyleadershavealsoacceptedthedisinformationtheRussiansareputtingout,eventotheextentofaffirmingthe
RussianpresidentasaChristianstatesmanleadingtheglobalwaronterror.

ConsiderChuckBaldwinspiece,RootinforPutin,whichinsiststhatRussiasVladimirPutinistheonlyonefightingaJustWar
intheMiddleEastrightnow.Baldwin,aChristianpastordedicatedtopreservingthehistoricprinciplesuponwhichAmericawas
founded,wasthepresidentialcandidatein2008oftheConstitutionParty,agroupassociatedwiththelateconservativeicon
HowardPhillips.
ItissimplyamazingthatanyconservativewouldinsistthatPutin,who,despitedroppingthecommunistlabelisstillalliedwithIran,
CommunistChina,NorthKoreaandCuba,issomehowdoingtherightthinginSyria,along-timeSoviet/Russianclientstate.What
PutinisdoingisentirelyconsistentwithwhattheSovietsalwaysdid.Theyaretryingtosaveaclientstatefromwhatstartedoutas
apopularrebellion.
Inhiscolumn,BaldwinwentontolabelBarackObama,DavidCameronofBritain,BenjaminNetanyahuofIsrael,KingSalmanof
SaudiArabia,andRecepTayyipErdoganofTurkeyasinternationalgangsters.
ItistruethatObama,throughafewofAmericasAraballies,hasbeensupportingthecauseofsomejihadistsandterroristsin
theMiddleEast.SaudiArabiaandQatarhavebeenimplicatedinthesedangerousschemes,oneofwhichculminatedinthe
BenghazimassacreoffourAmericansinLibya.ThatwasatreasonousactionthatshouldsinkHillaryClintonspresidential
campaignandcouldhavejustifiedimpeachmentchargesagainstObamahimself.Mrs.ClintonwasObamasSecretaryofStateat
thetime.
TheseoperationsintheMiddleEasthavebeencharacterizedbyformerCIAofficerClareLopezoftheCitizensCommissionon
BenghaziasswitchingsidesintheWaronTerror.
ButtheideathatPutinhascleanhandsintheMiddleEastisabsolutelyridiculous.ConsideringthathewasaSovietKGBspyand
actuallyheadedoneoftheKGBssuccessoragencies,theideathatPutinhassuddenlyhadaDamascusRoadconversionto
Christianityissimplyludicrous.HisforeignpolicyisverysimilartothatoftheoldSovietUnion.
Sincetheforeignpolicyhasmostlyremainedthesame,Sovietfinancingandsponsorshipofinternationalterroristnetworks,many
ofthemlinkedtoArabandMuslimgroups,alsohavetobetakenintoconsiderationhere.Itisreasonabletoassumethatthe
RussianshavemaintainedatleastpartsofthesenetworksforapurposethatweseeinthebackingofBasharAssadinSyria.
Indeed,writerandresearcherChristianGomezhastracedtherootsofISIStotheIslamicRevivalParty,createdbytheKGB,
duringthefinaldaysoftheoldSovietUnion.U.S.ArmyColonelSteveWarren,aspokesmanforCombinedJointTaskForce
OperationInherentResolve,hasnotedthattheRussiansaredoinglittleinSyriatofightISISterroristsandthatEverythingthey
[theRussians]aredoingistosupportAssad,tokeepAssadinpower.Inotherwords,PutiniscontinuingacleverSoviet-style
strategythatseekstomaintainAssadinpowerwhileusingISISforhisownpurposes.Oneofthosepurposes,asreflectedinRT
propaganda,istomakePutinlooklikeaterroristfighter.
BaldwinisnttheonlypersonalityontherightdupedbyPutinandhispropagandamachine.TheCEOofagroupcallingitself
simplytheTeaPartyhasdistributedanarticleclaimingthatRussiahasproducedstunningphotographicevidencethatISISoil
wasbeingsmuggledintoTurkeyonanindustrialscale.
Thestunningphotographicevidenceshowsnothingofthesort.NatashaBertrandofBusinessInsiderexaminedtheRussianmaps
andfoundthatthethreemainroutestheRussiansclaimISIShadallegedlybeenusingtotransportillicitoilintoTurkeyarenot
primarilycontrolledbytheIslamicState.TurkishPresidentErdoganhascountered:Whoisbuyingoil(fromISIS)?Letmesayit.
GeorgeHaswani,holderofaRussianpassportandaSyriannational,isoneofthebiggestmerchantsinthisbusiness.Henoted
thattheU.S.TreasuryDepartmentimposedsanctionsonHaswani,whowasalsoplacedonanEUsanctionslist,forservingas
middlemanforoilpurchasesbytheSyrianregimefromtheISISgroup.
IfyouhaventheardaboutthesanctionsontheindividualsandnetworksprovidingsupporttoSyriaandfacilitatingSyrianoil
purchasesfromISIS,youareavictimoftheslickpropagandathatisbeingspreadaroundtheworldbysuchoutletsasRT.Itisa
factthattheRussianclaimsagainstTurkeyaretakingprecedence,evenintheWesternmedia,overthefactsontheground,as
determinednotonlybytheU.S.TreasurybuttheU.S.Army.ColonelWarrensaid,WeflatlyrejectanynotionthattheTurksare
somehowworkingwithISIL,hesaid.Thatispreposterous.
TheTeaPartyarticleabouttheRussianclaimswaslifteddirectlyfromtheInfowars.comsiteofRussianapologistAlexJones,
whojustscoredamajorinterviewwithGOPpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrump.NorespectableTeaPartygroupshouldhave
anythingtodowithAlexJones,whodefendedtheRussianinvasionofitsformerrepublicGeorgiain2008.Trumpsdecision
toappearonhisshowwasextremelyfoolish.HeapparentlywasnotawarethatJonespromotesclaimsthatactualterroristattacks,
suchastheBostonMarathonbombingscarriedoutbytwoMuslimsfromRussia,werefalseflagsperpetratedbyU.S.police
andlawenforcementagencies.HiswebsiteranaVoiceofRussiastoryclaimingthedeadandwoundedwereactorsplastered
withfakeblood.
RatherthantreatPutinasagoodguyorally,GOPpresidentialcandidateSenatorMarcoRubio(FL)arguesthatTurkeyisa
memberofNATOandanallythatdeservesthefullbackingoftheUnitedStates.HenotedthattheRussiansweretargeting
Turkmen-populatedpocketsofnorthernSyriaratherthanterritorycontrolledbyISISandthatMostRussianmilitarystrikes
sincetheendofSeptemberhavebeennon-ISIStargets,includingmanycivilianareas,revealingthatRussiadoesnotshareour
interestinconfrontinganddefeatingISISbutinsteadisintentonproppinguptheAssadregime.
BeforeheassumedtheroleasaleaderoftheSunnisintheMiddleEast,mobilizingforcesagainstShiteIranandSyria,Erdogan
wasknownforhisanti-Sovietviews.Indeed,hewasananti-communistinhisyouth.AsaresultofRussiasincreasedmilitary
involvementinSyria,heseemstohaveawakenedtothefactthatPutinhasreturnedtohisSovietrootsandthatTurkeysfuturelies
withNATOandtheWest.TurkeyjoinedNATO,originallyconceivedasananti-Sovietmilitaryalliance,in1952.
AssumingErdoganisanIslamistofsomekind,assomeconservativescontend,itmightmakestrategicsensefortheWesttoback
himforthatreasonaloneinhisbattlewithRussia.Afterall,mostofRussias14millionMuslimsareSunnis.RTitself
recentlyhighlightedhowthousandsofMuslimshadgatheredincentralMoscowtowitnesstheopeningofoneofthebiggest
mosquesinEurope.TheceremonywasattendedbyPutinandErdogan,whohadbeenconsideredtobeonfriendlyterms.
TheirrelationshipturnedsourafterTurkeyshotdowntheRussianwarplane,anditseemstobedeterioratingfurther.
AsnotedbyIlyaArkhipovofBloombergBusiness,Putinusedhisannualstate-of-the-nationaddresstoattackTurkeyand
Erdoganinverypersonalandreligiousterms.Putinsaid,OnlyAllahknowswhytheydidthis.AnditseemsthatAllahdecidedto
punishtherulingganginTurkeybystrippingitofcommonsenseandreason.AnalystTimothyAshtoldBloombergthatThe
religiousanglebeingusedbyPutinisunlikelytogodownwellintheregion,whereErdoganisstillseenasadefenderoftheSunni
faith.
Oneobserverhasnoted,inregardtoRussianinvolvementinArab/MuslimterrorismandnowISIS,thatthemonsterthatthe
USSRcreatedmayhavegrowntoobig,andthatitmayeventuallyattackitscreator.InthecaseofTurkey,Putinisfacinga
Muslimproblemofhisownmaking.
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 11/08/201509:53:20AM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Subject: Re:FW:Re:
Kokhiswithhecrewbelow
http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1072198709480520&id=100000712037223
SentfrommyiPad
OnNov8,2015,at10:18AM,JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>wrote:

From:jbernstein91@aol.com[mailto:jbernstein91@aol.com]
Sent:Saturday,November07,20156:22PM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:JohnBDunloppaul.goble@gmail.comsocor@jamestown.orgcis@mosbacherproperties.com
devogelwillem@gmail.com
Subject:Re:

Maybehereallydiddieofnaturalcauses,butifhewasmurdered,Iwouldthinkitwasbecauseofsomethingheknew,
perhapsinvolvingtheearlydaysofPutin'srisetopower.HewasbasicallyforcedoutasGazpromMediachief,andmaybe
theyfiguredhecouldnolongerbetrustedtokeepsecrets.AndKremlinenemieshavebeenassassinatedinDC(Walter
Krivitsky).
To:JonasBernsteim<JBERNSTEIN91@aol.com>
Cc:JohnBDunlop<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>Mr.PaulGoble<paul.goble@gmail.com>VladimirSocorPh.D.
<socor@jamestown.org>ClintonSmullyan<cis@mosbacherproperties.com>WillemdeVogel
<devogelwillem@gmail.com>
Sent:Sat,Nov7,20159:04pm
Subject:Fwd:Re:
JonasandPaul:

RegardingmurderofLesin.DoyouthinkPutinhadhimkilled?FromacounterintelligenceperspectivethefacttheFSB
couldandwouldknockoffsomeonelikethishereinDCisprettyshocking!RemembertheattempttokillPaulJoyal.By
killinghimherePutinissayingursafenowhere.
Glen

Beginforwardedmessage:
From:ValeryDzutsati<v.dzutsev@gmail.com>
Date:November7,2015at8:28:12PMEST
To:GlenHoward<howard@jamestown.org>,StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Cc:<arielcohen@comcast.net>
Subject:Re:
LesinwasknownforconstructingthemediamachinethatmadePutin,asfarasIrecall.So,hecertainly
hadalotofvaluableinformation,sincePutinisactuallyamediaprojecttoalargeextent.

ItappearsthatinthecurrentenvironmentintheUS-Russiarelationsanyunwarrantedvisitsofthetop
RussianofficialstotheUSareprobablypunished.HeadoftheRussianrailways,Yakuninwasrecently
dismissedreportedlybecausehissonreceivedUKcitizenship(andthereforebecamevulnerableto
blackmailoftheUKgovernment,inPutinsthinking).

Date:Saturday,November7,2015at5:08PM
To:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Subject:Re:
Hardtotell.Itisquiteodd.Butwhowouldbenefitfromthisandwhy?WhywouldPutinwanttokillLesin?
OnNov7,2015,at6:29PM,StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>wrote:
DoyoubelieveLesinsimplyhadahearattack?I'msuspicious
PrivacyandcookiesJobsDatingOffersShopPuzzlesInvestorSubscribeRegisterLogin
Telegraph.co.uk

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VladimirPutinassociatefound
deadinWashingtonhotel
MikhailLesin,aformeraidetotheRussian
presidentwhohelpedfoundtheEnglish-
languagenewsserviceRussiaToday,was
founddeadinanupscaleWashingtonhotel
room
243 56
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 11/08/201501:25:52PM
Subject: Re:FW:Re:
http://www.facebook.com/pchikov/posts/1006737349399709
Another
SentfrommyiPad
OnNov8,2015,at10:18AM,JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>wrote:

Cc:JohnBDunloppaul.goble@gmail.comsocor@jamestown.orgcis@mosbacherproperties.com
devogelwillem@gmail.com
Subject:Re:

Maybehereallydiddieofnaturalcauses,butifhewasmurdered,Iwouldthinkitwasbecauseofsomethingheknew,
perhapsinvolvingtheearlydaysofPutin'srisetopower.HewasbasicallyforcedoutasGazpromMediachief,andmaybe
theyfiguredhecouldnolongerbetrustedtokeepsecrets.AndKremlinenemieshavebeenassassinatedinDC(Walter
Krivitsky).
<socor@jamestown.org>ClintonSmullyan<cis@mosbacherproperties.com>WillemdeVogel
<devogelwillem@gmail.com>
Subject:Fwd:Re:
JonasandPaul:

RegardingmurderofLesin.DoyouthinkPutinhadhimkilled?FromacounterintelligenceperspectivethefacttheFSB
couldandwouldknockoffsomeonelikethishereinDCisprettyshocking!RemembertheattempttokillPaulJoyal.By
killinghimherePutinissayingursafenowhere.
Glen

Subject:Re:
LesinwasknownforconstructingthemediamachinethatmadePutin,asfarasIrecall.So,hecertainly
hadalotofvaluableinformation,sincePutinisactuallyamediaprojecttoalargeextent.

ItappearsthatinthecurrentenvironmentintheUS-Russiarelationsanyunwarrantedvisitsofthetop
RussianofficialstotheUSareprobablypunished.HeadoftheRussianrailways,Yakuninwasrecently
dismissedreportedlybecausehissonreceivedUKcitizenship(andthereforebecamevulnerableto
blackmailoftheUKgovernment,inPutinsthinking).

Subject:Re:
Telegraph.co.uk

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Comment
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Travel
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Women
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Film
TV
USA
Asia
China
Europe
MiddleEast
Australasia
Africa
SouthAmerica
CentralAsia
KCLBigQuestion
Expat
Honduras
1. Home
2. News
3. WorldNews
4. NorthAmerica
5. USA
VladimirPutinassociatefound
deadinWashingtonhotel
MikhailLesin,aformeraidetotheRussian
presidentwhohelpedfoundtheEnglish-
languagenewsserviceRussiaToday,was
founddeadinanupscaleWashingtonhotel
room
243 56
Senttime: 11/10/201501:23:31PM
FW:[ITDOESNOTGETANYBETTER.....ANAMY&ANNEDOUBLEHEADER]AK---"Egypt:WhyPutinNeedstheFBI"[Blog].......AA-
Subject:
--"How(Putin)andHisCroniesStoleRU[BookReview
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[ITDOESNOTGETANYBETTER.....ANAMY&ANNEDOUBLEHEADER]AK---"Egypt:WhyPutinNeedstheFBI"[Blog].......AA--
-"How(Putin)andHisCroniesStoleRU[BookReview
From:JohnBDunlop
Date:Tue,Nov10,2015at1:49PM
Subject:FW:BlogontheRussianPlaneCrashinEgypt
To:<howard@jamestown.org>
From:amyknight[mailto:aknight613@msn.com]
To:allieknightak@gmail.comJoanAghevlisusiebrownbirstein@pipeline.comsusannebergermerlebianchiBradshaw,Jenny
BahramNowzadchristine.roess@gmail.comdianaknightDavidLawdavidljunggrenJohnDunlopCuthbertsonDavid
martin.dewhirst@gmail.comEdwardLucasdodgej@georgetown.eduCatherineFitzpatrickkheleniak@aol.com
katiewell39@gmail.comlownie@globalnet.co.uklluxford@me.comMollyRaskinmollyschwabe@comcast.netphyllissank
nevabruce@gmail.comperkelstudio@yahoo.com
Subject:BlogontheRussianPlaneCrashinEgypt
Foranyoneinterested,alinktomylatestblogfortheNewYorkReviewofBooks:
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2015/nov/09/egypt-crash-putin-fbi/
Amy
Egypt: Why Putin Needs the FBI

AmyKnight
AlexeyDruginyn/RiaNovosti/KremlinPool/epa/Corbis
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinandEgyptianPresidentAbdelFattahal-Sisi,Sochi,Russia,August12,2014
TheinvestigationofthecrashofaRussianpassengerplaneoverEgyptsSinaiPeninsulaonOctober31tookanunexpectedturn
onFriday,whenunnamedseniorUSofficialstoldCBSNewsthatRussianauthoritieshadrequestedthehelpoftheFBI.Relations
betweentheUSandRussiaareattheirlowestpointsincePutincametopowerin2000,andthereisalreadyoverwhelming
evidencethatRussianMetrojetFlight9268,carrying224passengersandcrew,wasbroughtdownbyabomb.Moreover,itcould
beparticularlyembarrassingifUSintelligencewasusedtoestablishdefinitivelythattheplanewastargetedbyISIS.Ifthisisthe
case,itseemslikelythattheextremistgroupwasrespondingtoRussiasrecentinterventioninSyria,aninterventionthathas
alreadybeenresolutelycondemnedbytheWest.
Why,then,wouldtheKremlinwanttheFBIinvolvedinacasethatcouldseriouslycompromisepublicsupportforitsSyria
campaign?TheKremlinapparentlyistryingtomakethebestofaverybadsituation.TheSinaicrashcomesjustweeksafter
RussiabeganitscontroversialairstrikesonbehalfoftheBasharal-AssadregimeinDamascusadecisionthatRussianPresident
VladimirPutinhasdescribedasanessentialefforttocontainthethreatofterrorism.InhisspeechtotheUNinlateSeptember,
Putinsaid
therearefighters[inSyria]frommanydifferentcountries,includingEuropeanones,gainingcombatexperiencewithIslamicState.
Unfortunately,Russiaisnoexception.Nowthatthosethugshavetastedblood,wecantallowthemtoreturnhomeandcontinue
withtheircriminalactivities.Nobodywantsthat,right?
Accordingtopollingdatagatheredbeforethecrash,RussianshavebroadlysupportedtheSyriaintervention,althoughmanyare
alsoconcernedthatRussiawillbecomeinvolvedinaprotractedmilitaryconflict.Thesefearscouldbegreatlyheightenedifthe
RussianpubliccomestobelievethattheaircampaigninSyriahasactuallyincreasedthethreatofterrorismandturnedRussians
intonewtargetsofextremistgroupsintheMiddleEast.AsIwroterecently,Russiahasapopulationof15millionMuslims,most
ofwhomareSunnis,andRussiahasbeenattackingSunnistrongholdsinSyria.
TheRussiangovernmentprobablydoesnotneedtheFBIshelpinitsinvestigationoftheplanecrash.ButPutinhastoconvincehis
people,asinthepast,thathecannotbeheldresponsibleforactsofterrorismagainstRussia:itisaglobalproblembeyondhis
controlratherthanadirectconsequenceofhispolicies.InreachingouttotheFBI,theRussiangovernmentmayberesortingto
itsoldargument,datingbacktothedaysafterSeptember11,thatRussiaandotherglobalpowersareallinittogether,fightingthe
sameenemy.AndthereisalsothepossibilitythatRussiancooperationwithWesternpowersontheSinaicrashcoulddampen
internationalcriticismofRussiasinterventioninSyria.
AlreadylastFriday,PutinsgovernmentacknowledgedthestrongevidencethatISIStargetedFlight9268inretaliationforRussian
involvementinSyria.(Although,SputnikNews,aKremlinmouthpiece,hasalsosuggestedthatBritishintelligencemighthave
bombedtheplane.)ThisfollowstheapparentconclusionofseveralWesterngovernments,includingtheUnitedKingdom,which
lastweekhaltedflightstoSharmel-Sheikh.Adaylater,followingajointmeetingoftheRussianSecurityCouncilandRussias
NationalAnti-TerrorismCommittee,PutinsuspendedRussianflightstoEgypt.Buthowtoportraythedisasterathomewithout
undermininghispopularsupportisadelicatetaskforPutin.
WritingontheNewYorkerwebsite,veteranKremlinwatcherMashaLipmanobservedthatPutinwill,asonpreviousoccasions,
usetheaircrashforpatrioticmobilization:
ThispatrioticmessagewillalmostcertainlyensurethattheplanecrashdoesnotaffectPutinsoverwhelmingpopularityorprompt
peopletoquestionhismilitarycampaigninSyria.
Lipmanisrightinthat,thankstothesophisticatedpropagandamachineofgovernment-controlledtelevision(stillthemainsourceof
newsformostRussians),feelingsofpatriotismandnationalpridepittedagainstwhatmostRussiansperceiveasaterriblethreat
fromtheWesthaveledRussianstoaccepttheeconomichardshipsthathavecomewiththeKremlinsmilitaryforaysinUkraine
andnowSyria.
ButRussiansdonottakewelltolargelossesoflifeamongtheirinnocentcountrymen,especiallywhentheirgovernmenthasoften
justifiedauthoritarianmeasuresasnecessarytokeepthepopulationsafe.ThereisalsoahistoryofRussiancounter-terrorism
effortsathomeactuallycontributingtolossoflife,suchaswiththe2002Moscowtheaterhostagecrisis,whichresultedinthe
deathsofaround130hostagesandthe2004schoolsiegeatBeslan,wherehundredswerekilled,includingmanychildren.As
journalistMikhailKostrovskyobservedinthenewspaperMoskovskiikomsomolets:
Whenthepriceofdefendingthecountrysnationalinterestsisabstract,albeithigh,thensocietyisreadytopayforitwithout
hesitation.Butwhenthispricesuddenlybecomesaspecificdisasterandtakestheformofsuddenmassdeathsofhappypeoplefull
ofvitalenergy,thenthesituationchanges.
RecalltheAugust2000Kursktragedy,whichledtoanunprecedentedwaveofnationwideoutrageagainstPutin.Thenuclear-
poweredcruisemissilesubmarinesankduringnavalexercisesintheBarentsSeaandall118seamenaboarddied.Putinremained
onvacationintheBlackSea,returningtoMoscowonlyfivedaysafterthesubmarinesank.Evenworse,theRussiangovernment
refusedoffersofhelpforthecrewfromtheUS,Britain,andNorwayandinitiallytriedtoblamethedisasteronacollisionwitha
foreignvessel,ratherthanadmittingtheactualcauseanexplosionofthefuelfromatorpedothattheshiptest-fired.Lastsummer,
IvisitedMurmansk,thehomeoftheRussianNorthernnavalfleet,wheremanyofthesubmarinecrewwhoperishedcamefrom.I
wasstruckbytheangerthatRussiancitizenstherestillhavetowardPutin,fifteenyearsaftertheKurskaffair,whichstilllingerson
inRussiascollectivememory.
ThechallengefortheKremlinposedbytheSinaicrashgoeswellbeyondthegriefcausedbythedisasteritself:therearemorethan
70,000RussiantouristsinEgyptrightnow,manyofthematresortslikeSharmelSheikhandHurghada.WithallregularRussian
flightscancelled,Russiahasbegunairliftingitscitizensbackhome.ButmanyotherRussiansareaffectedtoo.
EgyptisoneofthefewplacesRussianscangoonvacationatpricestheycanafford.(WesternEuropeisnowbeyondthebudgets
ofmostRussiansbecauseofthedeclineintheRussianrubleasaresultofthedropinoilprices.)TheRussianmediaisreporting
that200,000RussianshavealreadypaidforholidayvacationstoEgyptupthroughDecember.Iftouroperatorshavetoreimburse
them,theywillgobroke.AndmanyRussianswillbedisappointedtohavetheirholidaysruined.
ThereisadeepironyinRussiassuddenappealtotheFBIforhelpintheinvestigationoftheSinaiaircrash,inviewofitsown
dubiousrecordinpreviousinternationalinvestigations.Aswenowknow,intheyearsleadinguptothe2013BostonMarathon
case,RussiasinteractionswiththeFBIconcerningoneofthebombers,TamerlanTsarnaev,raisedmanyquestions.TheRussian
FSB,afterinitiallydoingafishingexpeditiontofindouthowmuchUSintelligenceknewaboutTsarnaev,neverinformedtheUS
abouthislatersix-monthsojournintheRussianNorthCaucasus,homeofmanyradicalIslamists.
AndtheRussiangovernmenthasdoneeverythinginitspowertorefutetheevidenceoftheDutch-ledinvestigationofthedowning
oftheMalaysianAirlinesflightoverUkraineinJuly2014.Theytriedinitially,withfakedsatellitephotographsdisplayedpubliclyby
theRussianMinistryofDefense,toclaimthattheplanehadbeenshotdownbyaUkrainiangovernmentfighterjet.Whenthe
DutchinvestigationshowedbeyonddoubtthataRussianBUKmissilehadhittheplane,theKremlingotthemanufacturers,Almaz-
Antey,toclaimthatthedatethemissileinquestionwasproducedmeantitwasintheUkrainiangovernmentarsenal.(Thechairman
oftheboardofAlmaz-AnteyisViktorIvanov,oneofPutinsclosestalliesfromtheSt.PetersburgKGB.)
TheRussianexplanationfortheMalaysiandisasterhasbeencompletelydiscreditedbyWesternresearchers,includingthe
independentresearchteam,Bellingcat,whichproducedameticulousaccount,throughsatellitephotography,ofthetransitofthe
BUKmissilefromRussiaintorebel-heldEasternUkraine,whereitwasfiredonJuly17andbroughtdowntheMalaysianairline.
Theresearchteamalsodocumentedthetrajectoryofthemissile,showingithadtohavebeenfiredfromareascontrolledbythe
rebels.
Constituentsofdemocraciestendtoacceptthattheirgovernmentsarenotperfectandthathugemistakes,whichleadtosignificant
lossoflives,happen:theymayholdtheirleadersaccountable,andeventuallyvotethemoutofoffice,buttheydonotquestionthe
legitimacyoftheirgovernment.Russiahasbecomeadictatorship,whosecitizenshavebeentoldthattheirleaderisfaultlessand
whosestrong-armpoliciesarekeepingthecountrysafe.WhenthereisadisastersuchastheapparentbombingofFlight9268,
governmentaccountabilitybecomesahugeproblem.(ThesamecouldbesaidofPresidentSisisEgypt,astatethatisextremely
authoritarian.Itsgovernmentisloathtoadmitthatitsairportsarenotsecure,notonlybecauseitwilllosevaluabletouristdollars,
butbecauseitcreatesacrisisforaregimewhosepopularityisbasedonnationalsecurity.)ThisiswhyPutinwaitedalmosttwo
daysbeforemakingapublicstatementontherecentcrash,causingmuchspeculationintheRussianpress.
PutinhasjustifiedRussiasmilitaryinvolvementinSyriabysayingthatitisbettertofightterroristsabroadratherthaninRussia.
AndthereiseveryreasontobelievehewillusetheSinaicrashtoargueforanevenmorerobustRussianinvolvementintheMiddle
East.ButthecrashofFlight9268andthedecisionbytheRussiangovernmentthatEgyptisnolongerasafecountryforRussian
touristsmayleadRussianstoquestionthatlogic.
AnneApplebaum
How He and His Cronies Stole Russia DECEMBER18,2014ISSUE
PutinsKleptocracy:WhoOwnsRussia?
byKarenDawisha
SimonandSchuster,445pp.,$30.00
applebaum_1-121814.jpg YuriMaltsev/Reuters
VladimirPutinsigningaGazprompipelineatanopeningceremonyinVladivostokfortheSakhalinKhabarovskVladivostokline,
whichcarriesnaturalgasthroughRussiasfareastandisprojectedtosupplyChinaandotherEastAsiancountries,September
2011
Fortwentyyearsnow,theWesternpoliticians,journalists,businessmen,andacademicswhoobserveanddescribethepost-Soviet
evolutionofRussiahavealmostallfollowedthesamenarrative.WebeginwiththeassumptionthattheSovietUnionendedin
1991,whenMikhailGorbachevhandedoverpowertoBorisYeltsinandRussia,Ukraine,andtherestoftheSovietrepublics
becameindependentstates.Wecontinuewithanaccountoftheearly1990s,aneraofreform,whensomeRussianleaderstried
tocreateademocraticpoliticalsystemandaliberalcapitalisteconomy.Wefollowthetrialsandtribulationsofthereformers,
analyzetheattemptsatprivatization,discusstheebbandflowofpoliticalpartiesandthegrowthanddeclineofanindependent
media.
Mostlyweagreethatthosereformsfailed,andsometimesweblameourselvesforthosefailures:wegavethewrongadvice,we
sentnaiveHarvardeconomistswhoshouldhaveknownbetter,wedidnthaveaMarshallPlan.SometimesweblametheRussians:
theeconomistsdidntfollowouradvice,thepublicwasapathetic,PresidentYeltsinwasindecisive,thendrunk,thenill.Sometimes
wehopethatreformswillreturn,asmanybelievedtheymightduringtheshortreignofPresidentDmitryMedvedev.
Whatevertheirconclusion,almostalloftheseanalystsseekanexplanationinthereformprocessitself,askingwhetheritwas
effective,orwhetheritwasflawed,orwhetheritcouldhavebeendesigneddifferently.Butwhatifitnevermatteredatall?Whatif
itmadenodifferencewhichmistakesweremade,whichprivatizationplansweresidetracked,whichpieceofadvicewasnot
followed?WhatifreformwasneverthemostimportantstoryofthepasttwentyyearsinRussiaatall?
KarenDawishasPutinsKleptocracyisnotthefirstbooktoaskthisquestion.Indeed,shemakesextensiveuseoftheworkof
others,bothfellowpoliticalscientistsaswellasjournalistsworkingacrosstheUSandEurope.Somehavefoundfaultwiththis
method,buttheresultingworkhasacertainadmirablerelentlessness.Forbytyingallofthesedisparateinvestigationstogetherso
thoroughly,sopedantically,andwithsomanyextendedfootnotesandbytrackingdownWesterncopiesofdocumentsthat
vanishedfromRussialongagotheextentofwhathasalwaysbeenamurkystorysuddenlybecomesmoreclear.Inher
introduction,Dawisha,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatMiamiUniversityinOhio,explains:
InsteadofseeingRussianpoliticsasaninchoatedemocraticsystembeingpulleddownbyhistory,accidentalautocrats,popular
inertia,bureaucraticincompetence,orpoorWesternadvice,IconcludethatfromthebeginningPutinandhiscirclesoughttocreate
anauthoritarianregimeruledbyaclose-knitcabalwhouseddemocracyfordecorationratherthandirection.
Inotherwords,themostimportantstoryofthepasttwentyyearsmightnot,infact,havebeenthefailureofdemocracy,buttherise
ofanewformofRussianauthoritarianism.Insteadofattemptingtoexplainthefailuresofthereformersandintellectualswhotried
tocarryoutradicalchange,weoughtinsteadtofocusontheremarkablestoryofonegroupofunrepentant,single-minded,
revanchistKGBofficerswhowerehorrifiedbythecollapseoftheSovietUnionandtheprospectoftheirownlossofinfluence.In
leaguewithRussianorganizedcrime,startingattheendofthe1980s,theysuccessfullyplottedareturntopower.Assistedbythe
unscrupulousinternationaloffshorebankingindustry,theystolemoneythatbelongedtotheRussianstate,tookitabroadforsafety,
reinvesteditinRussia,andthen,piecebypiece,tookoverthestatethemselves.Onceincharge,theybroughtbackSoviet
methodsofpoliticalcontroltheonlyonestheyknewupdatedforthemodernera.
ThatcorruptionwaspartoftheRussiansystemfromthebeginningissomethingwevelongknownforalongtime,ofcourse.In
herbookSaleoftheCentury(2000),ChrystiaFreelandmemorablydescribesthemomentwhensherealizedthattheconfusing
regulationsandcontradictorylawsthathog-tiedRussianbusinessinthe1990swerenotatemporaryproblemthatwouldsoonbe
cleanedupbysomecompetentadministrator.Onthecontrary,theyexistedforapurpose:theRussianelitewantedeverybodyto
operateinviolationofonelaworanother,becausethatmeantthateverybodywasliableatanytimetoarrest.Thecontradictory
regulationswerenotamistake,theywereaformofcontrol.
DawishatakesFreelandsrealizationonestepfurther.Sheisarguing,ineffect,thatevenbeforethosenefariousruleswerewritten,
thesystemhadalreadybeenriggedtofavorparticularpeopleandinterestgroups.Noevenplayingfieldwasevercreatedin
Russia,andthepowerofcompetitivemarketswasneverunleashed.Nobodybecamerichbybuildingabettermousetraporby
pullinghimselfupbyhisbootstraps.Instead,thosewhosucceededdidsothankstofavorsgrantedbyorstolenfromthestate.
Andwhenthedustsettled,VladimirPutinemergedaskingofthethieves.
Totellthisstory,Dawishausesmanysources,includingtheevidencepresentedinseveralmajorcourtcases,anumberofwhich
fizzledoutforpoliticalreasonsmaterialcollectedbyRussianandEuropeaninvestigativereporters,someofwhichhasnow
vanishedfromtheWebandRussianlegaljournals,manyofwhicharenowoutofprint.Shehasalsoconducteddozensof
interviewswithbusinessmenandbankersallovertheworld.Asnoted,someofwhatshedigsuphasbeendescribedelsewhere,
notonlyinMashaGessensemotiveaccountofPutinsrisetopower,TheManWithoutaFace(2012),butalsoinClifford
GaddyandFionaHillsMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin(2013)andPeterBakerandSusanGlassersKremlin
Rising(2005).1
Dawishadoesnt,likeGessen,seektoconveytheemotionsofRussianpolitics,andsheislessinterestedthanHillandGaddywere
inPutinspersonalbiography.Instead,sheturnsarelentlessfocusonthefinancialstoryofPutinsrisetopower:pageafterpage
containsthegrittydetailsofcriminaloperationaftercriminaloperation,includingnames,dates,andfigures.Manyofthesedetails
hadneverbeenputtogetherbeforeandforgoodreason.CambridgeUniversityPressdeclinedtopublishthisbookafterinitially
agreeingtodosoforfearofviolatingUKlibellaws.AlthoughshesoonfoundaUSpublisherUSlibellawsarelessconstricting
DawishastroublesgivesomehintofthedifficultiesfacedbymanywhotrytowriteaboutRussia,andparticularlythosewhotry
todescribethecorruptpracticesofmenwithverydeeppocketsandveryexpensivelawyersontheirpayroll.
Usingthismassofevidence,DawishaneverthelessarguesthattheKGBsreturntopowerbeginsnotin2000,whenPutinbecame
president,butinthelate1980s.Atthattime,thethenleadersoftheKGB,whodistrustedGorbachev,begantransferringmoney
thatbelongedtotheSovietCommunistPartyoutoftheSovietUnionandintooffshoreaccountstendedbySwissorBritish
bankers.Atleastinitially,thesetransferstookplacewiththePartysknowledge.InAugust1990,theCentralCommitteecalledfor
measurestoprotectthePartyseconomicinterests,includingtheconstructionofaninvisiblestructure,accessibleonlytoa
verynarrowcircleofpeople.KGBoperativeswhoalreadyhadexperiencewithmanagingforeignbankaccountstheydbeen
fundingforeignCommunistpartiesfordecadeswereputincharge.
Bytheautumnof1991aftertheKGB-ledcoupinAugusttooverthrowGorbachevhadfailedalmost$4billionbelongingto
thePartyspropertymanagementdepartmenthadalreadybeendistributedtohundredsofParty-,Komsomol-,andKGB-
managedbanksandcompaniesthatwereswiftlyestablishingthemselvesinRussiaandabroad.Thiswasanenormousamountof
capitalinacountrythathad,atthetime,ascarcelyfunctioningeconomyandhardlyanyforeigncurrencyreservesatall.Indue
course,thesefunds,andthepeoplewhomanagedthem,weretobecometherealfoundationfortheeconomyofpost-Soviet
Russia.Again,thiswasnotrobberbaroncapitalism,orindeedcapitalismatall:instead,asmallgroupwasenrichedbythestate
andtherebygiventhemeansofacquiringitsproperty.
Fromtheverybeginning,Russiascurrentpresidenthadapartinthisprocess.Inthelate1980s,PutinwasaKGBofficerin
Dresden,EastGermany.Thereareconflictingaccountsofwhathewasdoingthere.Inhisofficialandunofficialbiographies,
Dawishawrites,quotingPutinsGermanbiographerAlexanderRahr,thisperiodiscoveredinathickfogofsilence.Butthereis
someevidencethathemayhavebeenhelpingtheKGBprepareforwhatitfearedcouldbetheimminentdemiseoftheSoviet
empire.Indeed,whenhebecamepresidentin2000,GermancounterintelligencelaunchedaninvestigationintowhetherornotPutin
hadbeenrecruitingagentswhowouldremainloyaltotheKGBevenafterthecollapseofcommunism.AsDawishaexplains,the
GermanswereconcernedthatPutinhadrecruitedanetworkthatlivedoninunitedGermany.
Thescaleofthiseffortisnotknown,butcertainlyafewofhisDresdencontactshavebecomestartlinglysuccessfulinthedecades
since1989.MatthiasWarnig,aStasicolleagueofPutins,openedDresdnerBanksfirstbranchinSt.Petersburgin1991,by
whichtimePutinwaslivingthere.By2000heheadedallofthebanksoperationsinRussia.In2003,thebankparticipatedinthe
dismembermentofYukos,theoilcompanyowedbythejailedmagnateMikhailKhodorkovsky.Since2006,Warnighasbeen
managingdirectoroftheRussianGermanNordStreampipelineproject,acompanythatwonpermissiontooperateduringthe
termofGermanChancellorGerhardSchrder,andthatlaterhiredex-ChancellorSchrdertoserveonitsboard.In2012,among
otherhighposts,WarnigbecameamemberoftheboardofdirectorsofBankRossiya,oneoftheRussianbanksnowunderUS
sanctions.
AfterleavingGermany,PutinreturnedtoSt.Petersburg,eventuallymakinghisway,withKGBpatronage,intotheSt.Petersburg
citygovernment,wherehewasresponsibleforforeignliaisonsandwherehecouldputsomeofhisforeigncontactsto
immediateuse.In1991,MarinaSalye,amemberoftheSt.Petersburgcitycouncil,accusedPutinofhavingknowinglyentered
intodozensoflegallyflawedcontractsonbehalfofthecity,exportinghundredsofmillionsofdollarsworthofcommodities
timber,coal,steelinexchangeforfoodthatneverarrived.Herattemptstocensurehimcametonothing:thecouncilcalledforhis
resignationbutnothinghappened.Atahigherlevel,Putinhadprotectors.Salye,spookedbythreats,wentintohidingand
disappearedfromRussianpolitics.
Notthatitmatteredmuch,sincePutinandhisfriendshadotherironsinthefire.Backinthisveryearlypost-Sovietmomentwhen
WesternadviserswerestillstreamingintothecountrytogivelecturesontheruleoflawandjudicialreformPutinpersonally
organized,orhelpedorganize,severalinstitutionsthatexisttothisday.OneofthebestknownisBankRossiya,whichwas
foundedinSt.Petersburgin1990,usingmoneyfromtheCommunistPartysCentralCommittee.Fromthebeginning,accordingto
Spanishpoliceinvestigators,BankRossiyafacilitatedcooperationbetweenPutin,othercityofficials,andRussianorganizedcrime,
allowingthetwogroupstoinvesttogether.
applebaum_2-121814.jpg MikhailMetzel/TASS/AnadoluAgency/GettyImages
SultanHassanalBolkiahofBrunei,RussianPresidentVladimirPutin,ChinesePresidentXiJinping,hiswifePengLiyuan,andUS
PresidentBarackObamaattheAsia-PacificEconomicCooperationCEOSummit,Beijing,November10,2014
DawishaalsodescribestheoriginsoftheOzeroDachaConsumerCooperative,asmallgroup,againincludingPutin,that
conductedpropertyinvestmentsbutsoonbranchedintootherbusinesses,makinguseofmysterioussourcesofcash.Atatime
whenothershadnoaccesstocapital,theywereflush.Mostofthemembersofthecooperativearenowmillionairesandseveral
arebillionaires.
TheSt.PetersburgRealEstateHoldingCompany(SPAG)wasathirdinstitutionlinkedtoPutin.In1999,theGermanFederal
IntelligenceAgency(BND)completedaninvestigationintoSPAG,andpublishedareportthataccusedtheorganizationof
launderingmoneyforRussianandColombiancriminals.Amongotherthings,theBNDsaidthatSPAGtookmoneythathadbeen
sentoutofRussiaandwasparkedoffshore,andhelpeditsownersamongthemtheleadersoftheTambovgang,apartofthe
St.Petersburgmafiarepatriateitbackintothecountrythroughthepurchaseofpropertyandotherlegitimateassets.Notably,
whenSchrderbecamechancellorofGermany,thisinvestigationwassloweddownPutinsnamehad,inanycase,beenkeptout
ofit.SeveralothercompanyfounderswereindictedbycourtsinLiechtenstein.VladimirKumarin,theformerTambovgangleader,
hasbeeninprisonsince2012.
DawishaalsodescribestheoriginsoftheTwentiethTrust,aconstructioncompanyalsolinkedtoPutin.AccordingtoRussias
ownMinistryofInternalAffairs,theTwentiethTrustreceivedmoneyfromthebudgetofthecityofSt.Petersburgandsubsequently
transferredthatmoneyabroad.NovayaGazeta,aRussiannewspaper,discoveredthatthecompanyhadpurchasedpropertyin
SpainwhereitconstructedvillasusingRussianarmylabor.ThesekindsofreportsledSpanishpolicetobecomesuspiciousof
RussianactivityinSpain,andinthe1990stheybeganmonitoringtheRussianoligarchBorisBerezovsky,aswellasseveralwell-
knownleadersofRussianorganizedcrime,allofwhomhadhousesonthesoutherncoastofSpain.In1999,totheirimmense
surprise,theirrecorderspickedupanunexpectedvisitor:Putin.HehadarrivedinSpainillegally,byboatfromGibraltar,having
eludedSpanishpassportcontrol.
BythetimehemadethissecretvisittoSpainapparentlyoneofmanyPutinhadalreadygraduatedtothenextphaseofhis
career:untilAugust1999,hewasthebossoftheFSB,theKGBssuccessororganization.HehadmovedfromSt.Petersburgto
Moscow,takingmanyofhiscroniesandallofhiscriminalconnectionswithhim.Atthattime,theywerenottheonlysuchgroupto
haveparlayedstateandKGBmoneyintowealth.PresidentYeltsinhadalsoineffectgivenhisblessingtothecreationofseveral
largefortunes,includingthatofBorisBerezovksy.ButasYeltsinbecameincreasinglyillandunavailable,Putinpersuaded
BerezovskyandothersintheYeltsininnercirclethatheandhisFSBcolleagueswouldbetheguarantorsoftheirwealthintheevent
ofYeltsinsdemise.
TheydulyanointedPutinprimeministerandthenpresidentthewishesofvotersanddemocraticprocesshadlittletodowithit.
Buthavingobtainedhighoffice,heturnedthetablesonthem.Soonaftertakingover,hemadeitclearthatheintendedtoremove
theYeltsin-eraeliteandtoputaneweliteinitsplacemostlyfromSt.Petersburg,equallycorrupt,butloyalexclusivelytohim.
Amongothers,heremovedtheCEOandchairmanofGazpromtheoldSovietgasministry,nowaprivatecompanyand
replacedthemwithDmitryMedvedev,aSt.PetersburglawyerandPutinscolleaguesincehisdaysintheSt.Petersburgmayors
office,andAlekseiMiller,hisformerdeputyattheSt.PetersburgCommitteeforForeignLiaison.Veryquickly,Gazprombecame
asourceofpersonalfundsforPutinsprojects,useful,forexample,whenheneededalargechunkofmoneytobribethepresident
ofUkraine.Gazpromsnewleadershipgrewinwealthandpower,andtheyknewexactlywhotheyhadtothankforit.Thiswas
notthefirsttimethiskindofpolicyhadbeendeployedinRussia:ChangetheeliteisanoldStalinisttactictoo.
Buthavingchangedtheelite,havingtakenholdofthemostimportantRussiancompanies,andhavingestablishedhimselfas
godfathertoalloftheotheroligarchs,Putindidnotchangehisways.Afterhebecamepresidentin2000,itistruethatPutindid
preservesomeofthelanguageofreforminhispublicstatements.Heappointedreformerstotopjobs.Hekeptopenlinesof
communicationwiththeWest,particularlyafterSeptember11,2001,whenhesawthepossibilityofatacticalalliancewiththe
WestagainstMuslimradicalisminCentralAsia.HeremainedopentorelationshipswithNATOandwithAmericanandEuropean
leaders.In2004,heevendeclaredthatifUkrainewantstojointheEUandiftheEUacceptsUkraineasamember,Russia,I
think,wouldwelcomethisbecausewehaveaspecialrelationshipwithUkraine.HeregularlyattendedmeetingsoftheG8,an
organizationincludingtheUS,Canada,France,Germany,Japan,Italy,theUK,andRussiawhoserulesandraisondetrehad
beenalteredspecificallyinordertoallowRussiatojoin.
Healsocarriedoffanextraordinarypublicrelationscoup,andonewithfar-reachingsignificance:forfouryears,between2008and
2012,Putinputaseeminglypro-Western,apparentlybusiness-friendly,decoypresidentinchargeoftheKremlin.Thereassuring
presenceofDmitryMedvedevnotonlyinspiredBarackObamaandHillaryClintonsresetinAmericanforeignpolicy,butlulled
almosteveryoneinEuropeintoacceptingagangsterstateasadifficultbutlegitimatepartner.Duringthefouryearsofthe
MedvedevpresidencyNATOsmilitaryreadinessdeclinedfurther,Westernfinancialinstitutionsbecamemoredependenton
Russianmoney,andWesternpoliticiansturnedtheirattentiontoothermatters.
Yetduringthissameperiod,asduringhisownpresidency,PutinneverabandonedthemafiamethodsDawishahassopainstakingly
described.Instead,hereshapedRussiaspoliticalsysteminordertoensurethattheycouldcontinue.ThoughDawishaarguesthat
Putinalwaysintendedtorecreateanauthoritarian,expansionistRussia,onecouldalsoarguethatanauthoritarian,expansionist
RussiawastheinevitableresultofPutinsneedtoprotecthimself,hiscronies,andtheirmoney.
Eitherway,noonenowdoubtsthat,despitethetalkofreform,hemadenoattempttoencouragetrulyentrepreneurialcapitalism
insideRussiaortocreatealegalsystemthatwouldallowsmallbusinessestogrow.Courtsbecameincreasinglypoliticizedand
marketsevermoredistorted.Oligarchsandbusinessmenatalllevelswhodidnotplaybyhisrulesweredestroyed.Themost
famousvictimofRussiasarbitraryjusticewasMikhailKhodorkovsky,whowasarrestedin2003,afterwhichhisoilcompany,
Yukos,wasliquidated.Yukossassetswerethentransferredtoanothercompany,Rosneft,whichhappenedtobeownedby
anotheroneofPutinsfriends.Khodorkovskysarrestwasintendedasalessontoothers:hereiswhatwillhappen,eventothe
richestmen,iftheystepoutofline.
DuringwhatseemedatthetimetobeagoldeneraofRussianWesternpoliticalrelations,theeconomicpictureforforeign
investorswasalsomixed.SomeWesternbusinessesflourishedinRussia,butonlysofarasitsuitedPutinandhiscronies.
WesternerswhoannoyedtheregimeorWesternerswhosebusinesseswerecovetedbypowerfulRussianscouldbedestroyed
withtaxdemands,lawsuits,andworse.
ThiswasthefateofBillBrowdergrandsonofEarlBrowder,leaderoftheAmericanCommunistPartywhosetupaRussian
investmentfundthatinvestedheavilyinGazprom.Afterheturnedouttobeanannoyinglyactivistshareholderhekeptaskingwhy
thecompanysaccountsweresountransparentBrowderwasbarredfromthecountryin2005.HiscompaniesinRussiawere
subsequentlydestroyedbyaparticularlyPutinistformofcorporateraiding:taxofficialsandpoliceattackedtheiroffices,
reregisteredthem,declaredthembankrupt,stoletheirmoney,andarrestedandharassedtheiremployees.Browderslawyer,
SergeyMagnitsky,waseventuallybeatentodeathbyguardsinaRussianprison.
AtthesametimewhileconstantlyspeakingofreforminWesterncapitalsPutinwassystematicallydestroyingthenascent
institutionsofliberaldemocraticsociety.Whateverembryonicpoliticalmovementshadcometolifeinthe1990swerecrushedin
the2000s.Refusingtotolerateanyrealpoliticalopposition,Putininsteadsponsoredphonypoliticalpartieswhoseleaderswere
ultimatelyloyaltohimself.Heevisceratedindependentmedia,especiallytelevision,whichheconsideredtobeanessentialtoolof
socialmanipulation.Althoughheleftafewverysmalldissidentnewspapersopen,presumablyinordertoplacatethetinymiddle
class,hepushedbackhardwhentheywenttoofar.AnnaPolitkovskaya,anextraordinarilybravereporterwhowroteabout
PutinswarinChechnya,wasoneofseveralRussianjournaliststobebrutallykilledingangland-stylemurders.
Withthemediaoutoftheway,Putinalsotookoncivilsociety,meaninganycharitable,educational,oradvocacyorganizations
overwhichhedidnotexertdirectcontrol.ThisincludedtheslowsuffocationofapoliticalgroupssuchasMemorial,thehistoric
humanrightsorganizationthathasproducedinternationallyadmiredaccountsofthecrimesofStalin,thehistoryoftheGulag,and
moregenerallythehistoryofrepressioninRussia.BecauseMemorialhadreceivedforeignfundingfromorganizationssuchasthe
FordFoundationitwastoldthatithadtoberegisteredasaforeignagent,aphrasethatheavilyimpliesforeignespionage.
Morerecently,theRussianJusticeMinistryhasfiledalawsuitthatseekstoshutdownMemorialaltogether,onspurious
administrativegrounds.2
Inplaceofagenuinemediaandarealcivilsociety,Putinandhisinnercircleslowlyputintoplaceasystemformanufacturing
disinformationandmobilizingsupportonanewandspectacularscale.OncetheKGBhadretakenthecountry,inotherwords,it
beganonceagaintoactliketheKGBonlynowitwasbetterfundedandmoresophisticated.TodaysRussianpolitical
technologistsmakeuseoftheirstate-ownedmedia,includingEnglish-languageoutletssuchastheTVnewschannelRussiaToday
armiesofpaidsocialmediatrollswhopostonnewspapercommentpages,aswellasonTwitter,Facebook,andothersitesfake
expertswhosequotescanbepresentedwithfakeauthorityandrealexpertstowhomPutinsofficialshavegrantedspecial
access,orhavesimplypaid.FormerWesternambassadorstoMoscow,businessmenwhohavebeenrecruitedtoRussian
companyboards,Europeanpoliticiansashigh-rankingasSchrderandSilvioBerlusconiallhavebeenwellcompensated,
directlyorindirectly,forofferingtheirsupport.
Usingthesedifferentsources,theKremlinbeganputtingoutmessagesdesignednotnecessarilytomakeRussialookgood,but
rathertounderminetheWesternestablishmentandWesterninstitutions,includingtheEuropeanUnionandNATO.Usingboth
moneyandinformation,theyseektoempowertheWesternfarright,theanti-establishmentleft,andtheinternationalbusiness
communityallatthesametime.ThusRussiaTodaysupportsOccupyWallStreet.ARussianoligarchorganizesameetinginVienna
attendedbytheFrenchNationalFront,HungarysnationalistpoliticalpartyJobbik,andAustriasFreedomParty.3Whispering
campaigns,conductedintheworldsfinancialcapitalsespeciallyFrankfurtandtheCityofLondonhintatthedirethingsthat
willhappenifsanctionsagainstRussiaarenotlifted.InanarticlerecentlypublishedbyTheInterpreter,anonlinepublication
dedicatedtoexposingKremlindisinformation,thejournalistsPeterPomerantsevandMichaelWeissarguethat
sinceatleast2008Kremlinmilitaryandintelligencethinkershavebeentalkingaboutinformationnotinthefamiliartermsof
persuasion,publicdiplomacyorevenpropaganda,butinweaponizedterms,asatooltoconfuse,blackmail,demoralize,
subvertandparalyze.4
Thisisnotasystem,inotherwords,thathascomeaboutspontaneously,inreactiontoeventsonKievsMaidan,althoughtothose
whohaventfollowedtheevolutionofRussianpoliticsoverthepasttwentyyearsortothosewhohavefollowedonlythe
narrativeoffailedreformsitmightperhapsappearthatway.Indeed,inthemonthssincePutinsinvasionofCrimea,ithas
becomefashionabletosuggestthattheharder-linefacethatPutinhasmorerecentlyshowntotheworldissomehow,onceagain,
theWestsfault,thatwehaveprovokedRussiaintoautocraticbehaviorthroughourtalkofdemocracyinUkraineorthatonce
againthereformprocesswassomehowbroughttoahaltbecausetheRussiansfeltthreatenedbytheexpansionofNATOor
byWesternpolicyintheBalkans.
ButafterreadingDawishasbook,andafterabsorbingtheimplicationsofthestoriesshehassocarefullypulledtogetherfromso
manysources,itissimplynotpossibletotakethisargumentseriously.Since2000,Russiahasbeenruledbyarevanchist,
revisionistelitewithoriginsintheoldKGB.Thiselitehadbeenworkingitswaybacktopowersincethelate1980s,usingthefton
agrandscale,takingadvantageofthesecrecyprovidedbyWesternoffshorehavens,andcooperatingwithorganizedcrime.
Onceinpower,thenewelitesoughttomaintaincontrolusingthesamemethodsthattheKGBalwaysusedtomaintaincontrol:
throughthemanipulationofpublicemotion,andbyunderminingtheinstitutionsoftheWest,andtheidealsoftheWest,inanyway
thatitcan.Basedonitsrecordsofar,ithaseveryreasontoexpectcontinuedsuccess.
Letters
PutinsKleptocracyFebruary5,2015
SeealsomyreviewofGessensbook,TheNewYorkReview,April26,2012.
SeeGabrielleTtrault-Farber,JusticeMinistryMovestoLiquidateRenownedHumanRightsGroupMemorial,TheMoscowTimes,October12,2014.
SeeJuttaSommerbauer,RechteAllianz:GeheimesgrorussischesTreffeninWien,DiePresse,June3,2014.
4
PeterPomerantsevandMichaelWeiss,TheMenaceofUnreality:HowtheKremlinWeaponizesInformation,CultureandMoney,2014,publishedbyThe
InterpreterandtheInstituteofModernRussia.
Senttime: 11/10/201501:23:31PM
FW:[ITDOESNOTGETANYBETTER.....ANAMY&ANNEDOUBLEHEADER]AK---"Egypt:WhyPutinNeedstheFBI"[Blog].......AA-
Subject:
--"How(Putin)andHisCroniesStoleRU[BookReview
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[ITDOESNOTGETANYBETTER.....ANAMY&ANNEDOUBLEHEADER]AK---"Egypt:WhyPutinNeedstheFBI"[Blog].......AA--
-"How(Putin)andHisCroniesStoleRU[BookReview
From:JohnBDunlop
Date:Tue,Nov10,2015at1:49PM
Subject:FW:BlogontheRussianPlaneCrashinEgypt
To:<howard@jamestown.org>
From:amyknight[mailto:aknight613@msn.com]
To:allieknightak@gmail.comJoanAghevlisusiebrownbirstein@pipeline.comsusannebergermerlebianchiBradshaw,Jenny
BahramNowzadchristine.roess@gmail.comdianaknightDavidLawdavidljunggrenJohnDunlopCuthbertsonDavid
martin.dewhirst@gmail.comEdwardLucasdodgej@georgetown.eduCatherineFitzpatrickkheleniak@aol.com
katiewell39@gmail.comlownie@globalnet.co.uklluxford@me.comMollyRaskinmollyschwabe@comcast.netphyllissank
nevabruce@gmail.comperkelstudio@yahoo.com
Subject:BlogontheRussianPlaneCrashinEgypt
Foranyoneinterested,alinktomylatestblogfortheNewYorkReviewofBooks:
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2015/nov/09/egypt-crash-putin-fbi/
Amy
Egypt: Why Putin Needs the FBI

AmyKnight
AlexeyDruginyn/RiaNovosti/KremlinPool/epa/Corbis
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinandEgyptianPresidentAbdelFattahal-Sisi,Sochi,Russia,August12,2014
TheinvestigationofthecrashofaRussianpassengerplaneoverEgyptsSinaiPeninsulaonOctober31tookanunexpectedturn
onFriday,whenunnamedseniorUSofficialstoldCBSNewsthatRussianauthoritieshadrequestedthehelpoftheFBI.Relations
betweentheUSandRussiaareattheirlowestpointsincePutincametopowerin2000,andthereisalreadyoverwhelming
evidencethatRussianMetrojetFlight9268,carrying224passengersandcrew,wasbroughtdownbyabomb.Moreover,itcould
beparticularlyembarrassingifUSintelligencewasusedtoestablishdefinitivelythattheplanewastargetedbyISIS.Ifthisisthe
case,itseemslikelythattheextremistgroupwasrespondingtoRussiasrecentinterventioninSyria,aninterventionthathas
alreadybeenresolutelycondemnedbytheWest.
Why,then,wouldtheKremlinwanttheFBIinvolvedinacasethatcouldseriouslycompromisepublicsupportforitsSyria
campaign?TheKremlinapparentlyistryingtomakethebestofaverybadsituation.TheSinaicrashcomesjustweeksafter
RussiabeganitscontroversialairstrikesonbehalfoftheBasharal-AssadregimeinDamascusadecisionthatRussianPresident
VladimirPutinhasdescribedasanessentialefforttocontainthethreatofterrorism.InhisspeechtotheUNinlateSeptember,
Putinsaid
therearefighters[inSyria]frommanydifferentcountries,includingEuropeanones,gainingcombatexperiencewithIslamicState.
Unfortunately,Russiaisnoexception.Nowthatthosethugshavetastedblood,wecantallowthemtoreturnhomeandcontinue
withtheircriminalactivities.Nobodywantsthat,right?
Accordingtopollingdatagatheredbeforethecrash,RussianshavebroadlysupportedtheSyriaintervention,althoughmanyare
alsoconcernedthatRussiawillbecomeinvolvedinaprotractedmilitaryconflict.Thesefearscouldbegreatlyheightenedifthe
RussianpubliccomestobelievethattheaircampaigninSyriahasactuallyincreasedthethreatofterrorismandturnedRussians
intonewtargetsofextremistgroupsintheMiddleEast.AsIwroterecently,Russiahasapopulationof15millionMuslims,most
ofwhomareSunnis,andRussiahasbeenattackingSunnistrongholdsinSyria.
TheRussiangovernmentprobablydoesnotneedtheFBIshelpinitsinvestigationoftheplanecrash.ButPutinhastoconvincehis
people,asinthepast,thathecannotbeheldresponsibleforactsofterrorismagainstRussia:itisaglobalproblembeyondhis
controlratherthanadirectconsequenceofhispolicies.InreachingouttotheFBI,theRussiangovernmentmayberesortingto
itsoldargument,datingbacktothedaysafterSeptember11,thatRussiaandotherglobalpowersareallinittogether,fightingthe
sameenemy.AndthereisalsothepossibilitythatRussiancooperationwithWesternpowersontheSinaicrashcoulddampen
internationalcriticismofRussiasinterventioninSyria.
AlreadylastFriday,PutinsgovernmentacknowledgedthestrongevidencethatISIStargetedFlight9268inretaliationforRussian
involvementinSyria.(Although,SputnikNews,aKremlinmouthpiece,hasalsosuggestedthatBritishintelligencemighthave
bombedtheplane.)ThisfollowstheapparentconclusionofseveralWesterngovernments,includingtheUnitedKingdom,which
lastweekhaltedflightstoSharmel-Sheikh.Adaylater,followingajointmeetingoftheRussianSecurityCouncilandRussias
NationalAnti-TerrorismCommittee,PutinsuspendedRussianflightstoEgypt.Buthowtoportraythedisasterathomewithout
undermininghispopularsupportisadelicatetaskforPutin.
WritingontheNewYorkerwebsite,veteranKremlinwatcherMashaLipmanobservedthatPutinwill,asonpreviousoccasions,
usetheaircrashforpatrioticmobilization:
ThispatrioticmessagewillalmostcertainlyensurethattheplanecrashdoesnotaffectPutinsoverwhelmingpopularityorprompt
peopletoquestionhismilitarycampaigninSyria.
Lipmanisrightinthat,thankstothesophisticatedpropagandamachineofgovernment-controlledtelevision(stillthemainsourceof
newsformostRussians),feelingsofpatriotismandnationalpridepittedagainstwhatmostRussiansperceiveasaterriblethreat
fromtheWesthaveledRussianstoaccepttheeconomichardshipsthathavecomewiththeKremlinsmilitaryforaysinUkraine
andnowSyria.
ButRussiansdonottakewelltolargelossesoflifeamongtheirinnocentcountrymen,especiallywhentheirgovernmenthasoften
justifiedauthoritarianmeasuresasnecessarytokeepthepopulationsafe.ThereisalsoahistoryofRussiancounter-terrorism
effortsathomeactuallycontributingtolossoflife,suchaswiththe2002Moscowtheaterhostagecrisis,whichresultedinthe
deathsofaround130hostagesandthe2004schoolsiegeatBeslan,wherehundredswerekilled,includingmanychildren.As
journalistMikhailKostrovskyobservedinthenewspaperMoskovskiikomsomolets:
Whenthepriceofdefendingthecountrysnationalinterestsisabstract,albeithigh,thensocietyisreadytopayforitwithout
hesitation.Butwhenthispricesuddenlybecomesaspecificdisasterandtakestheformofsuddenmassdeathsofhappypeoplefull
ofvitalenergy,thenthesituationchanges.
RecalltheAugust2000Kursktragedy,whichledtoanunprecedentedwaveofnationwideoutrageagainstPutin.Thenuclear-
poweredcruisemissilesubmarinesankduringnavalexercisesintheBarentsSeaandall118seamenaboarddied.Putinremained
onvacationintheBlackSea,returningtoMoscowonlyfivedaysafterthesubmarinesank.Evenworse,theRussiangovernment
refusedoffersofhelpforthecrewfromtheUS,Britain,andNorwayandinitiallytriedtoblamethedisasteronacollisionwitha
foreignvessel,ratherthanadmittingtheactualcauseanexplosionofthefuelfromatorpedothattheshiptest-fired.Lastsummer,
IvisitedMurmansk,thehomeoftheRussianNorthernnavalfleet,wheremanyofthesubmarinecrewwhoperishedcamefrom.I
wasstruckbytheangerthatRussiancitizenstherestillhavetowardPutin,fifteenyearsaftertheKurskaffair,whichstilllingerson
inRussiascollectivememory.
ThechallengefortheKremlinposedbytheSinaicrashgoeswellbeyondthegriefcausedbythedisasteritself:therearemorethan
70,000RussiantouristsinEgyptrightnow,manyofthematresortslikeSharmelSheikhandHurghada.WithallregularRussian
flightscancelled,Russiahasbegunairliftingitscitizensbackhome.ButmanyotherRussiansareaffectedtoo.
EgyptisoneofthefewplacesRussianscangoonvacationatpricestheycanafford.(WesternEuropeisnowbeyondthebudgets
ofmostRussiansbecauseofthedeclineintheRussianrubleasaresultofthedropinoilprices.)TheRussianmediaisreporting
that200,000RussianshavealreadypaidforholidayvacationstoEgyptupthroughDecember.Iftouroperatorshavetoreimburse
them,theywillgobroke.AndmanyRussianswillbedisappointedtohavetheirholidaysruined.
ThereisadeepironyinRussiassuddenappealtotheFBIforhelpintheinvestigationoftheSinaiaircrash,inviewofitsown
dubiousrecordinpreviousinternationalinvestigations.Aswenowknow,intheyearsleadinguptothe2013BostonMarathon
case,RussiasinteractionswiththeFBIconcerningoneofthebombers,TamerlanTsarnaev,raisedmanyquestions.TheRussian
FSB,afterinitiallydoingafishingexpeditiontofindouthowmuchUSintelligenceknewaboutTsarnaev,neverinformedtheUS
abouthislatersix-monthsojournintheRussianNorthCaucasus,homeofmanyradicalIslamists.
AndtheRussiangovernmenthasdoneeverythinginitspowertorefutetheevidenceoftheDutch-ledinvestigationofthedowning
oftheMalaysianAirlinesflightoverUkraineinJuly2014.Theytriedinitially,withfakedsatellitephotographsdisplayedpubliclyby
theRussianMinistryofDefense,toclaimthattheplanehadbeenshotdownbyaUkrainiangovernmentfighterjet.Whenthe
DutchinvestigationshowedbeyonddoubtthataRussianBUKmissilehadhittheplane,theKremlingotthemanufacturers,Almaz-
Antey,toclaimthatthedatethemissileinquestionwasproducedmeantitwasintheUkrainiangovernmentarsenal.(Thechairman
oftheboardofAlmaz-AnteyisViktorIvanov,oneofPutinsclosestalliesfromtheSt.PetersburgKGB.)
TheRussianexplanationfortheMalaysiandisasterhasbeencompletelydiscreditedbyWesternresearchers,includingthe
independentresearchteam,Bellingcat,whichproducedameticulousaccount,throughsatellitephotography,ofthetransitofthe
BUKmissilefromRussiaintorebel-heldEasternUkraine,whereitwasfiredonJuly17andbroughtdowntheMalaysianairline.
Theresearchteamalsodocumentedthetrajectoryofthemissile,showingithadtohavebeenfiredfromareascontrolledbythe
rebels.
Constituentsofdemocraciestendtoacceptthattheirgovernmentsarenotperfectandthathugemistakes,whichleadtosignificant
lossoflives,happen:theymayholdtheirleadersaccountable,andeventuallyvotethemoutofoffice,buttheydonotquestionthe
legitimacyoftheirgovernment.Russiahasbecomeadictatorship,whosecitizenshavebeentoldthattheirleaderisfaultlessand
whosestrong-armpoliciesarekeepingthecountrysafe.WhenthereisadisastersuchastheapparentbombingofFlight9268,
governmentaccountabilitybecomesahugeproblem.(ThesamecouldbesaidofPresidentSisisEgypt,astatethatisextremely
authoritarian.Itsgovernmentisloathtoadmitthatitsairportsarenotsecure,notonlybecauseitwilllosevaluabletouristdollars,
butbecauseitcreatesacrisisforaregimewhosepopularityisbasedonnationalsecurity.)ThisiswhyPutinwaitedalmosttwo
daysbeforemakingapublicstatementontherecentcrash,causingmuchspeculationintheRussianpress.
PutinhasjustifiedRussiasmilitaryinvolvementinSyriabysayingthatitisbettertofightterroristsabroadratherthaninRussia.
AndthereiseveryreasontobelievehewillusetheSinaicrashtoargueforanevenmorerobustRussianinvolvementintheMiddle
East.ButthecrashofFlight9268andthedecisionbytheRussiangovernmentthatEgyptisnolongerasafecountryforRussian
touristsmayleadRussianstoquestionthatlogic.
AnneApplebaum
How He and His Cronies Stole Russia DECEMBER18,2014ISSUE
PutinsKleptocracy:WhoOwnsRussia?
byKarenDawisha
SimonandSchuster,445pp.,$30.00
applebaum_1-121814.jpg YuriMaltsev/Reuters
VladimirPutinsigningaGazprompipelineatanopeningceremonyinVladivostokfortheSakhalinKhabarovskVladivostokline,
whichcarriesnaturalgasthroughRussiasfareastandisprojectedtosupplyChinaandotherEastAsiancountries,September
2011
Fortwentyyearsnow,theWesternpoliticians,journalists,businessmen,andacademicswhoobserveanddescribethepost-Soviet
evolutionofRussiahavealmostallfollowedthesamenarrative.WebeginwiththeassumptionthattheSovietUnionendedin
1991,whenMikhailGorbachevhandedoverpowertoBorisYeltsinandRussia,Ukraine,andtherestoftheSovietrepublics
becameindependentstates.Wecontinuewithanaccountoftheearly1990s,aneraofreform,whensomeRussianleaderstried
tocreateademocraticpoliticalsystemandaliberalcapitalisteconomy.Wefollowthetrialsandtribulationsofthereformers,
analyzetheattemptsatprivatization,discusstheebbandflowofpoliticalpartiesandthegrowthanddeclineofanindependent
media.
Mostlyweagreethatthosereformsfailed,andsometimesweblameourselvesforthosefailures:wegavethewrongadvice,we
sentnaiveHarvardeconomistswhoshouldhaveknownbetter,wedidnthaveaMarshallPlan.SometimesweblametheRussians:
theeconomistsdidntfollowouradvice,thepublicwasapathetic,PresidentYeltsinwasindecisive,thendrunk,thenill.Sometimes
wehopethatreformswillreturn,asmanybelievedtheymightduringtheshortreignofPresidentDmitryMedvedev.
Whatevertheirconclusion,almostalloftheseanalystsseekanexplanationinthereformprocessitself,askingwhetheritwas
effective,orwhetheritwasflawed,orwhetheritcouldhavebeendesigneddifferently.Butwhatifitnevermatteredatall?Whatif
itmadenodifferencewhichmistakesweremade,whichprivatizationplansweresidetracked,whichpieceofadvicewasnot
followed?WhatifreformwasneverthemostimportantstoryofthepasttwentyyearsinRussiaatall?
KarenDawishasPutinsKleptocracyisnotthefirstbooktoaskthisquestion.Indeed,shemakesextensiveuseoftheworkof
others,bothfellowpoliticalscientistsaswellasjournalistsworkingacrosstheUSandEurope.Somehavefoundfaultwiththis
method,buttheresultingworkhasacertainadmirablerelentlessness.Forbytyingallofthesedisparateinvestigationstogetherso
thoroughly,sopedantically,andwithsomanyextendedfootnotesandbytrackingdownWesterncopiesofdocumentsthat
vanishedfromRussialongagotheextentofwhathasalwaysbeenamurkystorysuddenlybecomesmoreclear.Inher
introduction,Dawisha,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatMiamiUniversityinOhio,explains:
InsteadofseeingRussianpoliticsasaninchoatedemocraticsystembeingpulleddownbyhistory,accidentalautocrats,popular
inertia,bureaucraticincompetence,orpoorWesternadvice,IconcludethatfromthebeginningPutinandhiscirclesoughttocreate
anauthoritarianregimeruledbyaclose-knitcabalwhouseddemocracyfordecorationratherthandirection.
Inotherwords,themostimportantstoryofthepasttwentyyearsmightnot,infact,havebeenthefailureofdemocracy,buttherise
ofanewformofRussianauthoritarianism.Insteadofattemptingtoexplainthefailuresofthereformersandintellectualswhotried
tocarryoutradicalchange,weoughtinsteadtofocusontheremarkablestoryofonegroupofunrepentant,single-minded,
revanchistKGBofficerswhowerehorrifiedbythecollapseoftheSovietUnionandtheprospectoftheirownlossofinfluence.In
leaguewithRussianorganizedcrime,startingattheendofthe1980s,theysuccessfullyplottedareturntopower.Assistedbythe
unscrupulousinternationaloffshorebankingindustry,theystolemoneythatbelongedtotheRussianstate,tookitabroadforsafety,
reinvesteditinRussia,andthen,piecebypiece,tookoverthestatethemselves.Onceincharge,theybroughtbackSoviet
methodsofpoliticalcontroltheonlyonestheyknewupdatedforthemodernera.
ThatcorruptionwaspartoftheRussiansystemfromthebeginningissomethingwevelongknownforalongtime,ofcourse.In
herbookSaleoftheCentury(2000),ChrystiaFreelandmemorablydescribesthemomentwhensherealizedthattheconfusing
regulationsandcontradictorylawsthathog-tiedRussianbusinessinthe1990swerenotatemporaryproblemthatwouldsoonbe
cleanedupbysomecompetentadministrator.Onthecontrary,theyexistedforapurpose:theRussianelitewantedeverybodyto
operateinviolationofonelaworanother,becausethatmeantthateverybodywasliableatanytimetoarrest.Thecontradictory
regulationswerenotamistake,theywereaformofcontrol.
DawishatakesFreelandsrealizationonestepfurther.Sheisarguing,ineffect,thatevenbeforethosenefariousruleswerewritten,
thesystemhadalreadybeenriggedtofavorparticularpeopleandinterestgroups.Noevenplayingfieldwasevercreatedin
Russia,andthepowerofcompetitivemarketswasneverunleashed.Nobodybecamerichbybuildingabettermousetraporby
pullinghimselfupbyhisbootstraps.Instead,thosewhosucceededdidsothankstofavorsgrantedbyorstolenfromthestate.
Andwhenthedustsettled,VladimirPutinemergedaskingofthethieves.
Totellthisstory,Dawishausesmanysources,includingtheevidencepresentedinseveralmajorcourtcases,anumberofwhich
fizzledoutforpoliticalreasonsmaterialcollectedbyRussianandEuropeaninvestigativereporters,someofwhichhasnow
vanishedfromtheWebandRussianlegaljournals,manyofwhicharenowoutofprint.Shehasalsoconducteddozensof
interviewswithbusinessmenandbankersallovertheworld.Asnoted,someofwhatshedigsuphasbeendescribedelsewhere,
notonlyinMashaGessensemotiveaccountofPutinsrisetopower,TheManWithoutaFace(2012),butalsoinClifford
GaddyandFionaHillsMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin(2013)andPeterBakerandSusanGlassersKremlin
Rising(2005).1
Dawishadoesnt,likeGessen,seektoconveytheemotionsofRussianpolitics,andsheislessinterestedthanHillandGaddywere
inPutinspersonalbiography.Instead,sheturnsarelentlessfocusonthefinancialstoryofPutinsrisetopower:pageafterpage
containsthegrittydetailsofcriminaloperationaftercriminaloperation,includingnames,dates,andfigures.Manyofthesedetails
hadneverbeenputtogetherbeforeandforgoodreason.CambridgeUniversityPressdeclinedtopublishthisbookafterinitially
agreeingtodosoforfearofviolatingUKlibellaws.AlthoughshesoonfoundaUSpublisherUSlibellawsarelessconstricting
DawishastroublesgivesomehintofthedifficultiesfacedbymanywhotrytowriteaboutRussia,andparticularlythosewhotry
todescribethecorruptpracticesofmenwithverydeeppocketsandveryexpensivelawyersontheirpayroll.
Usingthismassofevidence,DawishaneverthelessarguesthattheKGBsreturntopowerbeginsnotin2000,whenPutinbecame
president,butinthelate1980s.Atthattime,thethenleadersoftheKGB,whodistrustedGorbachev,begantransferringmoney
thatbelongedtotheSovietCommunistPartyoutoftheSovietUnionandintooffshoreaccountstendedbySwissorBritish
bankers.Atleastinitially,thesetransferstookplacewiththePartysknowledge.InAugust1990,theCentralCommitteecalledfor
measurestoprotectthePartyseconomicinterests,includingtheconstructionofaninvisiblestructure,accessibleonlytoa
verynarrowcircleofpeople.KGBoperativeswhoalreadyhadexperiencewithmanagingforeignbankaccountstheydbeen
fundingforeignCommunistpartiesfordecadeswereputincharge.
Bytheautumnof1991aftertheKGB-ledcoupinAugusttooverthrowGorbachevhadfailedalmost$4billionbelongingto
thePartyspropertymanagementdepartmenthadalreadybeendistributedtohundredsofParty-,Komsomol-,andKGB-
managedbanksandcompaniesthatwereswiftlyestablishingthemselvesinRussiaandabroad.Thiswasanenormousamountof
capitalinacountrythathad,atthetime,ascarcelyfunctioningeconomyandhardlyanyforeigncurrencyreservesatall.Indue
course,thesefunds,andthepeoplewhomanagedthem,weretobecometherealfoundationfortheeconomyofpost-Soviet
Russia.Again,thiswasnotrobberbaroncapitalism,orindeedcapitalismatall:instead,asmallgroupwasenrichedbythestate
andtherebygiventhemeansofacquiringitsproperty.
Fromtheverybeginning,Russiascurrentpresidenthadapartinthisprocess.Inthelate1980s,PutinwasaKGBofficerin
Dresden,EastGermany.Thereareconflictingaccountsofwhathewasdoingthere.Inhisofficialandunofficialbiographies,
Dawishawrites,quotingPutinsGermanbiographerAlexanderRahr,thisperiodiscoveredinathickfogofsilence.Butthereis
someevidencethathemayhavebeenhelpingtheKGBprepareforwhatitfearedcouldbetheimminentdemiseoftheSoviet
empire.Indeed,whenhebecamepresidentin2000,GermancounterintelligencelaunchedaninvestigationintowhetherornotPutin
hadbeenrecruitingagentswhowouldremainloyaltotheKGBevenafterthecollapseofcommunism.AsDawishaexplains,the
GermanswereconcernedthatPutinhadrecruitedanetworkthatlivedoninunitedGermany.
Thescaleofthiseffortisnotknown,butcertainlyafewofhisDresdencontactshavebecomestartlinglysuccessfulinthedecades
since1989.MatthiasWarnig,aStasicolleagueofPutins,openedDresdnerBanksfirstbranchinSt.Petersburgin1991,by
whichtimePutinwaslivingthere.By2000heheadedallofthebanksoperationsinRussia.In2003,thebankparticipatedinthe
dismembermentofYukos,theoilcompanyowedbythejailedmagnateMikhailKhodorkovsky.Since2006,Warnighasbeen
managingdirectoroftheRussianGermanNordStreampipelineproject,acompanythatwonpermissiontooperateduringthe
termofGermanChancellorGerhardSchrder,andthatlaterhiredex-ChancellorSchrdertoserveonitsboard.In2012,among
otherhighposts,WarnigbecameamemberoftheboardofdirectorsofBankRossiya,oneoftheRussianbanksnowunderUS
sanctions.
AfterleavingGermany,PutinreturnedtoSt.Petersburg,eventuallymakinghisway,withKGBpatronage,intotheSt.Petersburg
citygovernment,wherehewasresponsibleforforeignliaisonsandwherehecouldputsomeofhisforeigncontactsto
immediateuse.In1991,MarinaSalye,amemberoftheSt.Petersburgcitycouncil,accusedPutinofhavingknowinglyentered
intodozensoflegallyflawedcontractsonbehalfofthecity,exportinghundredsofmillionsofdollarsworthofcommodities
timber,coal,steelinexchangeforfoodthatneverarrived.Herattemptstocensurehimcametonothing:thecouncilcalledforhis
resignationbutnothinghappened.Atahigherlevel,Putinhadprotectors.Salye,spookedbythreats,wentintohidingand
disappearedfromRussianpolitics.
Notthatitmatteredmuch,sincePutinandhisfriendshadotherironsinthefire.Backinthisveryearlypost-Sovietmomentwhen
WesternadviserswerestillstreamingintothecountrytogivelecturesontheruleoflawandjudicialreformPutinpersonally
organized,orhelpedorganize,severalinstitutionsthatexisttothisday.OneofthebestknownisBankRossiya,whichwas
foundedinSt.Petersburgin1990,usingmoneyfromtheCommunistPartysCentralCommittee.Fromthebeginning,accordingto
Spanishpoliceinvestigators,BankRossiyafacilitatedcooperationbetweenPutin,othercityofficials,andRussianorganizedcrime,
allowingthetwogroupstoinvesttogether.
applebaum_2-121814.jpg MikhailMetzel/TASS/AnadoluAgency/GettyImages
SultanHassanalBolkiahofBrunei,RussianPresidentVladimirPutin,ChinesePresidentXiJinping,hiswifePengLiyuan,andUS
PresidentBarackObamaattheAsia-PacificEconomicCooperationCEOSummit,Beijing,November10,2014
DawishaalsodescribestheoriginsoftheOzeroDachaConsumerCooperative,asmallgroup,againincludingPutin,that
conductedpropertyinvestmentsbutsoonbranchedintootherbusinesses,makinguseofmysterioussourcesofcash.Atatime
whenothershadnoaccesstocapital,theywereflush.Mostofthemembersofthecooperativearenowmillionairesandseveral
arebillionaires.
TheSt.PetersburgRealEstateHoldingCompany(SPAG)wasathirdinstitutionlinkedtoPutin.In1999,theGermanFederal
IntelligenceAgency(BND)completedaninvestigationintoSPAG,andpublishedareportthataccusedtheorganizationof
launderingmoneyforRussianandColombiancriminals.Amongotherthings,theBNDsaidthatSPAGtookmoneythathadbeen
sentoutofRussiaandwasparkedoffshore,andhelpeditsownersamongthemtheleadersoftheTambovgang,apartofthe
St.Petersburgmafiarepatriateitbackintothecountrythroughthepurchaseofpropertyandotherlegitimateassets.Notably,
whenSchrderbecamechancellorofGermany,thisinvestigationwassloweddownPutinsnamehad,inanycase,beenkeptout
ofit.SeveralothercompanyfounderswereindictedbycourtsinLiechtenstein.VladimirKumarin,theformerTambovgangleader,
hasbeeninprisonsince2012.
DawishaalsodescribestheoriginsoftheTwentiethTrust,aconstructioncompanyalsolinkedtoPutin.AccordingtoRussias
ownMinistryofInternalAffairs,theTwentiethTrustreceivedmoneyfromthebudgetofthecityofSt.Petersburgandsubsequently
transferredthatmoneyabroad.NovayaGazeta,aRussiannewspaper,discoveredthatthecompanyhadpurchasedpropertyin
SpainwhereitconstructedvillasusingRussianarmylabor.ThesekindsofreportsledSpanishpolicetobecomesuspiciousof
RussianactivityinSpain,andinthe1990stheybeganmonitoringtheRussianoligarchBorisBerezovsky,aswellasseveralwell-
knownleadersofRussianorganizedcrime,allofwhomhadhousesonthesoutherncoastofSpain.In1999,totheirimmense
surprise,theirrecorderspickedupanunexpectedvisitor:Putin.HehadarrivedinSpainillegally,byboatfromGibraltar,having
eludedSpanishpassportcontrol.
BythetimehemadethissecretvisittoSpainapparentlyoneofmanyPutinhadalreadygraduatedtothenextphaseofhis
career:untilAugust1999,hewasthebossoftheFSB,theKGBssuccessororganization.HehadmovedfromSt.Petersburgto
Moscow,takingmanyofhiscroniesandallofhiscriminalconnectionswithhim.Atthattime,theywerenottheonlysuchgroupto
haveparlayedstateandKGBmoneyintowealth.PresidentYeltsinhadalsoineffectgivenhisblessingtothecreationofseveral
largefortunes,includingthatofBorisBerezovksy.ButasYeltsinbecameincreasinglyillandunavailable,Putinpersuaded
BerezovskyandothersintheYeltsininnercirclethatheandhisFSBcolleagueswouldbetheguarantorsoftheirwealthintheevent
ofYeltsinsdemise.
TheydulyanointedPutinprimeministerandthenpresidentthewishesofvotersanddemocraticprocesshadlittletodowithit.
Buthavingobtainedhighoffice,heturnedthetablesonthem.Soonaftertakingover,hemadeitclearthatheintendedtoremove
theYeltsin-eraeliteandtoputaneweliteinitsplacemostlyfromSt.Petersburg,equallycorrupt,butloyalexclusivelytohim.
Amongothers,heremovedtheCEOandchairmanofGazpromtheoldSovietgasministry,nowaprivatecompanyand
replacedthemwithDmitryMedvedev,aSt.PetersburglawyerandPutinscolleaguesincehisdaysintheSt.Petersburgmayors
office,andAlekseiMiller,hisformerdeputyattheSt.PetersburgCommitteeforForeignLiaison.Veryquickly,Gazprombecame
asourceofpersonalfundsforPutinsprojects,useful,forexample,whenheneededalargechunkofmoneytobribethepresident
ofUkraine.Gazpromsnewleadershipgrewinwealthandpower,andtheyknewexactlywhotheyhadtothankforit.Thiswas
notthefirsttimethiskindofpolicyhadbeendeployedinRussia:ChangetheeliteisanoldStalinisttactictoo.
Buthavingchangedtheelite,havingtakenholdofthemostimportantRussiancompanies,andhavingestablishedhimselfas
godfathertoalloftheotheroligarchs,Putindidnotchangehisways.Afterhebecamepresidentin2000,itistruethatPutindid
preservesomeofthelanguageofreforminhispublicstatements.Heappointedreformerstotopjobs.Hekeptopenlinesof
communicationwiththeWest,particularlyafterSeptember11,2001,whenhesawthepossibilityofatacticalalliancewiththe
WestagainstMuslimradicalisminCentralAsia.HeremainedopentorelationshipswithNATOandwithAmericanandEuropean
leaders.In2004,heevendeclaredthatifUkrainewantstojointheEUandiftheEUacceptsUkraineasamember,Russia,I
think,wouldwelcomethisbecausewehaveaspecialrelationshipwithUkraine.HeregularlyattendedmeetingsoftheG8,an
organizationincludingtheUS,Canada,France,Germany,Japan,Italy,theUK,andRussiawhoserulesandraisondetrehad
beenalteredspecificallyinordertoallowRussiatojoin.
Healsocarriedoffanextraordinarypublicrelationscoup,andonewithfar-reachingsignificance:forfouryears,between2008and
2012,Putinputaseeminglypro-Western,apparentlybusiness-friendly,decoypresidentinchargeoftheKremlin.Thereassuring
presenceofDmitryMedvedevnotonlyinspiredBarackObamaandHillaryClintonsresetinAmericanforeignpolicy,butlulled
almosteveryoneinEuropeintoacceptingagangsterstateasadifficultbutlegitimatepartner.Duringthefouryearsofthe
MedvedevpresidencyNATOsmilitaryreadinessdeclinedfurther,Westernfinancialinstitutionsbecamemoredependenton
Russianmoney,andWesternpoliticiansturnedtheirattentiontoothermatters.
Yetduringthissameperiod,asduringhisownpresidency,PutinneverabandonedthemafiamethodsDawishahassopainstakingly
described.Instead,hereshapedRussiaspoliticalsysteminordertoensurethattheycouldcontinue.ThoughDawishaarguesthat
Putinalwaysintendedtorecreateanauthoritarian,expansionistRussia,onecouldalsoarguethatanauthoritarian,expansionist
RussiawastheinevitableresultofPutinsneedtoprotecthimself,hiscronies,andtheirmoney.
Eitherway,noonenowdoubtsthat,despitethetalkofreform,hemadenoattempttoencouragetrulyentrepreneurialcapitalism
insideRussiaortocreatealegalsystemthatwouldallowsmallbusinessestogrow.Courtsbecameincreasinglypoliticizedand
marketsevermoredistorted.Oligarchsandbusinessmenatalllevelswhodidnotplaybyhisrulesweredestroyed.Themost
famousvictimofRussiasarbitraryjusticewasMikhailKhodorkovsky,whowasarrestedin2003,afterwhichhisoilcompany,
Yukos,wasliquidated.Yukossassetswerethentransferredtoanothercompany,Rosneft,whichhappenedtobeownedby
anotheroneofPutinsfriends.Khodorkovskysarrestwasintendedasalessontoothers:hereiswhatwillhappen,eventothe
richestmen,iftheystepoutofline.
DuringwhatseemedatthetimetobeagoldeneraofRussianWesternpoliticalrelations,theeconomicpictureforforeign
investorswasalsomixed.SomeWesternbusinessesflourishedinRussia,butonlysofarasitsuitedPutinandhiscronies.
WesternerswhoannoyedtheregimeorWesternerswhosebusinesseswerecovetedbypowerfulRussianscouldbedestroyed
withtaxdemands,lawsuits,andworse.
ThiswasthefateofBillBrowdergrandsonofEarlBrowder,leaderoftheAmericanCommunistPartywhosetupaRussian
investmentfundthatinvestedheavilyinGazprom.Afterheturnedouttobeanannoyinglyactivistshareholderhekeptaskingwhy
thecompanysaccountsweresountransparentBrowderwasbarredfromthecountryin2005.HiscompaniesinRussiawere
subsequentlydestroyedbyaparticularlyPutinistformofcorporateraiding:taxofficialsandpoliceattackedtheiroffices,
reregisteredthem,declaredthembankrupt,stoletheirmoney,andarrestedandharassedtheiremployees.Browderslawyer,
SergeyMagnitsky,waseventuallybeatentodeathbyguardsinaRussianprison.
AtthesametimewhileconstantlyspeakingofreforminWesterncapitalsPutinwassystematicallydestroyingthenascent
institutionsofliberaldemocraticsociety.Whateverembryonicpoliticalmovementshadcometolifeinthe1990swerecrushedin
the2000s.Refusingtotolerateanyrealpoliticalopposition,Putininsteadsponsoredphonypoliticalpartieswhoseleaderswere
ultimatelyloyaltohimself.Heevisceratedindependentmedia,especiallytelevision,whichheconsideredtobeanessentialtoolof
socialmanipulation.Althoughheleftafewverysmalldissidentnewspapersopen,presumablyinordertoplacatethetinymiddle
class,hepushedbackhardwhentheywenttoofar.AnnaPolitkovskaya,anextraordinarilybravereporterwhowroteabout
PutinswarinChechnya,wasoneofseveralRussianjournaliststobebrutallykilledingangland-stylemurders.
Withthemediaoutoftheway,Putinalsotookoncivilsociety,meaninganycharitable,educational,oradvocacyorganizations
overwhichhedidnotexertdirectcontrol.ThisincludedtheslowsuffocationofapoliticalgroupssuchasMemorial,thehistoric
humanrightsorganizationthathasproducedinternationallyadmiredaccountsofthecrimesofStalin,thehistoryoftheGulag,and
moregenerallythehistoryofrepressioninRussia.BecauseMemorialhadreceivedforeignfundingfromorganizationssuchasthe
FordFoundationitwastoldthatithadtoberegisteredasaforeignagent,aphrasethatheavilyimpliesforeignespionage.
Morerecently,theRussianJusticeMinistryhasfiledalawsuitthatseekstoshutdownMemorialaltogether,onspurious
administrativegrounds.2
Inplaceofagenuinemediaandarealcivilsociety,Putinandhisinnercircleslowlyputintoplaceasystemformanufacturing
disinformationandmobilizingsupportonanewandspectacularscale.OncetheKGBhadretakenthecountry,inotherwords,it
beganonceagaintoactliketheKGBonlynowitwasbetterfundedandmoresophisticated.TodaysRussianpolitical
technologistsmakeuseoftheirstate-ownedmedia,includingEnglish-languageoutletssuchastheTVnewschannelRussiaToday
armiesofpaidsocialmediatrollswhopostonnewspapercommentpages,aswellasonTwitter,Facebook,andothersitesfake
expertswhosequotescanbepresentedwithfakeauthorityandrealexpertstowhomPutinsofficialshavegrantedspecial
access,orhavesimplypaid.FormerWesternambassadorstoMoscow,businessmenwhohavebeenrecruitedtoRussian
companyboards,Europeanpoliticiansashigh-rankingasSchrderandSilvioBerlusconiallhavebeenwellcompensated,
directlyorindirectly,forofferingtheirsupport.
Usingthesedifferentsources,theKremlinbeganputtingoutmessagesdesignednotnecessarilytomakeRussialookgood,but
rathertounderminetheWesternestablishmentandWesterninstitutions,includingtheEuropeanUnionandNATO.Usingboth
moneyandinformation,theyseektoempowertheWesternfarright,theanti-establishmentleft,andtheinternationalbusiness
communityallatthesametime.ThusRussiaTodaysupportsOccupyWallStreet.ARussianoligarchorganizesameetinginVienna
attendedbytheFrenchNationalFront,HungarysnationalistpoliticalpartyJobbik,andAustriasFreedomParty.3Whispering
campaigns,conductedintheworldsfinancialcapitalsespeciallyFrankfurtandtheCityofLondonhintatthedirethingsthat
willhappenifsanctionsagainstRussiaarenotlifted.InanarticlerecentlypublishedbyTheInterpreter,anonlinepublication
dedicatedtoexposingKremlindisinformation,thejournalistsPeterPomerantsevandMichaelWeissarguethat
sinceatleast2008Kremlinmilitaryandintelligencethinkershavebeentalkingaboutinformationnotinthefamiliartermsof
persuasion,publicdiplomacyorevenpropaganda,butinweaponizedterms,asatooltoconfuse,blackmail,demoralize,
subvertandparalyze.4
Thisisnotasystem,inotherwords,thathascomeaboutspontaneously,inreactiontoeventsonKievsMaidan,althoughtothose
whohaventfollowedtheevolutionofRussianpoliticsoverthepasttwentyyearsortothosewhohavefollowedonlythe
narrativeoffailedreformsitmightperhapsappearthatway.Indeed,inthemonthssincePutinsinvasionofCrimea,ithas
becomefashionabletosuggestthattheharder-linefacethatPutinhasmorerecentlyshowntotheworldissomehow,onceagain,
theWestsfault,thatwehaveprovokedRussiaintoautocraticbehaviorthroughourtalkofdemocracyinUkraineorthatonce
againthereformprocesswassomehowbroughttoahaltbecausetheRussiansfeltthreatenedbytheexpansionofNATOor
byWesternpolicyintheBalkans.
ButafterreadingDawishasbook,andafterabsorbingtheimplicationsofthestoriesshehassocarefullypulledtogetherfromso
manysources,itissimplynotpossibletotakethisargumentseriously.Since2000,Russiahasbeenruledbyarevanchist,
revisionistelitewithoriginsintheoldKGB.Thiselitehadbeenworkingitswaybacktopowersincethelate1980s,usingthefton
agrandscale,takingadvantageofthesecrecyprovidedbyWesternoffshorehavens,andcooperatingwithorganizedcrime.
Onceinpower,thenewelitesoughttomaintaincontrolusingthesamemethodsthattheKGBalwaysusedtomaintaincontrol:
throughthemanipulationofpublicemotion,andbyunderminingtheinstitutionsoftheWest,andtheidealsoftheWest,inanyway
thatitcan.Basedonitsrecordsofar,ithaseveryreasontoexpectcontinuedsuccess.
Letters
PutinsKleptocracyFebruary5,2015
SeealsomyreviewofGessensbook,TheNewYorkReview,April26,2012.
SeeGabrielleTtrault-Farber,JusticeMinistryMovestoLiquidateRenownedHumanRightsGroupMemorial,TheMoscowTimes,October12,2014.
SeeJuttaSommerbauer,RechteAllianz:GeheimesgrorussischesTreffeninWien,DiePresse,June3,2014.
4
PeterPomerantsevandMichaelWeiss,TheMenaceofUnreality:HowtheKremlinWeaponizesInformation,CultureandMoney,2014,publishedbyThe
InterpreterandtheInstituteofModernRussia.
From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 11/08/201509:30:40AM
Subject: Re:FW:Re:
John,
WouldyoulikemetoaskBelkovskyandPavlovskyaboutthiswhen(d.v.)
IseethemonTuesday?
M.
On08/11/201515:18,JohnBDunlopwrote:
>*From:*jbernstein91@aol.com[mailto:jbernstein91@aol.com]
>*Sent:*Saturday,November07,20156:22PM
>*To:*howard@jamestown.org
>*Cc:*JohnBDunloppaul.goble@gmail.comsocor@jamestown.org
>cis@mosbacherproperties.comdevogelwillem@gmail.com
>*Subject:*Re:
>
>Maybehereallydiddieofnaturalcauses,butifhewasmurdered,I
>wouldthinkitwasbecauseofsomethingheknew,perhapsinvolvingthe
>earlydaysofPutin'srisetopower.Hewasbasicallyforcedoutas
>GazpromMediachief,andmaybetheyfiguredhecouldnolongerbe
>trustedtokeepsecrets.AndKremlinenemieshavebeenassassinatedin
>DC(WalterKrivitsky).
>
>-----OriginalMessage-----
>From:GlenHoward>
>To:JonasBernsteim>
>Cc:JohnBDunlop>Mr.PaulGoble>VladimirSocorPh.D.
>>ClintonSmullyan
>>
>WillemdeVogel>
>Sent:Sat,Nov7,20159:04pm
>Subject:Fwd:Re:
>
>JonasandPaul:
>
>RegardingmurderofLesin.DoyouthinkPutinhadhimkilled?Froma
>counterintelligenceperspectivethefacttheFSBcouldandwouldknock
>offsomeonelikethishereinDCisprettyshocking!Rememberthe
>attempttokillPaulJoyal.BykillinghimherePutinissayingursafe
>nowhere.
>
>Glen
>
>
>Beginforwardedmessage:
>
>*From:*ValeryDzutsati>
>*Date:*November7,2015at8:28:12PMEST
>*To:*GlenHoward>,StephenBlank>
>*Cc:*>
>*Subject:**Re:*
>
>LesinwasknownforconstructingthemediamachinethatmadePutin,
>asfarasIrecall.So,hecertainlyhadalotofvaluable
>information,sincePutinisactuallyamediaprojecttoalargeextent.
>
>ItappearsthatinthecurrentenvironmentintheUS-Russia
>relationsanyunwarrantedvisitsofthetopRussianofficialstothe
>USareprobablypunished.HeadoftheRussianrailways,Yakuninwas
>recentlydismissedreportedlybecausehissonreceivedUK
>citizenship(andthereforebecamevulnerabletoblackmailoftheUK
>government,inPutinsthinking).
>
>*From:*GlenHoward>
>*Date:*Saturday,November7,2015at5:08PM
>*To:*StephenBlank>
>*Cc:*>
>*Subject:*Re:
>
>Hardtotell.Itisquiteodd.Butwhowouldbenefitfromthisand
>why?WhywouldPutinwanttokillLesin?
>
>
>OnNov7,2015,at6:29PM,StephenBlank>wrote:
>
>logoU
>DoyoubelieveLesinsimplyhadahearattack?I'msuspicious
>
>PrivacyandcookiesJobsDatingOffersShopPuzzlesInvestor
>SubscribeRegisterLogin
>
>
>
>_Telegraph.co.uk_
>
>Search-enhancedbyOpenText
>
>Saturday07November2015
>
>*Home
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>
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>1.Home
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>3.WorldNews
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>
>VladimirPutinassociatefounddeadinWashingtonhotel
>
>
>MikhailLesin,aformeraidetotheRussianpresidentwho
>helpedfoundtheEnglish-languagenewsserviceRussiaToday,
>wasfounddeadinanupscaleWashingtonhotelroom
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>243
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>56
>
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>
Senttime: 11/08/201507:18:52AM
Subject: FW:Re:
Cc:JohnBDunloppaul.goble@gmail.comsocor@jamestown.orgcis@mosbacherproperties.comdevogelwillem@gmail.com
Subject:Re:
Maybehereallydiddieofnaturalcauses,butifhewasmurdered,Iwouldthinkitwasbecauseofsomethingheknew,perhapsinvolving
theearlydaysofPutin'srisetopower.HewasbasicallyforcedoutasGazpromMediachief,andmaybetheyfiguredhecouldnolonger
betrustedtokeepsecrets.AndKremlinenemieshavebeenassassinatedinDC(WalterKrivitsky).
<socor@jamestown.org>ClintonSmullyan<cis@mosbacherproperties.com>WillemdeVogel<devogelwillem@gmail.com>
Subject:Fwd:Re:
JonasandPaul:
RegardingmurderofLesin.DoyouthinkPutinhadhimkilled?FromacounterintelligenceperspectivethefacttheFSBcouldandwould
knockoffsomeonelikethishereinDCisprettyshocking!RemembertheattempttokillPaulJoyal.BykillinghimherePutinissaying
ursafenowhere.
Glen
Subject:Re:
LesinwasknownforconstructingthemediamachinethatmadePutin,asfarasIrecall.So,hecertainlyhadalotof
valuableinformation,sincePutinisactuallyamediaprojecttoalargeextent.

ItappearsthatinthecurrentenvironmentintheUS-RussiarelationsanyunwarrantedvisitsofthetopRussianofficialsto
theUSareprobablypunished.HeadoftheRussianrailways,Yakuninwasrecentlydismissedreportedlybecausehisson
receivedUKcitizenship(andthereforebecamevulnerabletoblackmailoftheUKgovernment,inPutinsthinking).

Subject:Re:

Telegraph.co.uk

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TV
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SouthAmerica
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5. USA
VladimirPutinassociatefounddeadin
Washingtonhotel
MikhailLesin,aformeraidetotheRussianpresident
whohelpedfoundtheEnglish-languagenewsservice
RussiaToday,wasfounddeadinanupscale
Washingtonhotelroom
243 56
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 11/08/201507:01:18AM
To: BobOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:FTInterviewwithBillBurns
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3d4619f6-82f8-11e5-8095-ed1a37d1e096.html
LUNCHWITHTHEFT November6,20153:58pm
LunchwiththeFT:BillBurns
GideonRachman
Share Authoralerts Print Clip Fromthememo

GiftArticle Comments
thatpredicted
chaosinIraqtosecretmeetingsaboutanucleardealwithIran,thediplomattalks
abouttheadrenalinerushofalifeininternationaldiplomacy
WhenPresidentObamawantedsomebodytoopensecretnegotiations
withIranin2013,heturnedtoBillBurns,widelyregardedasoneof
thefinestandmostdiscreetUSdiplomatsofhisgeneration.ButasI
waitforthe59-year-oldtoarriveattheCoventGardenbranchof
Hawksmoor,anupmarketchainrestaurantinLondonspecialisingin
steaks,itstrikesmethat,inanotherlife,Burnsmighthimselfhave
writtenanentertainingLunchwiththeFT.
AfterthousandsofAmericandiplomaticcableswereleakedtothe
internationalpressviaWikiLeaksin2010,Burnsfoundhimselfan
unexpectedbeneficiary.ACaucasusWedding,atelegramhesentto
theUSstatedepartmentin2006whilehewasambassadortoRussia,
recountingaraucousthree-dayDagestaniweddingattendedby
ChechnyaspresidentRamzanKadyrov,wasdescribedasaminor
classicofcomicwriting,itstoneverymuchnotwhatonemightexpect
ofadiplomaticcable.
Cooksseemedtokeepwholesheepandwholecowsboilingina
cauldronsomewhere,dayandnight,dumpingdisjointedfragmentsof
thecarcassonthetables,wheneversomeoneenteredtheroom,
JamesFerguson
Burnsnoted.Thealcoholconsumptionbefore,duringandafterthis
Muslimweddingwasstupendous...Therewasalsoentertainment,
althoughGadzismainact,aSyrian-bornsingernamedAvraamRusso,couldnotmakeitbecausehewasshota
fewdaysbeforethewedding.
Burnssdaysofwritingdiplomaticcablesareoverfornow.HeretiredfromtheUSgovernmentlastyearaftera
33-yearcareerthatculminatedinspellsasdeputysecretaryofstatetobothHillaryClintonandJohnKerry.He
isonlythesecondcareerdiplomatinUShistorytohavemadeitthathighupthedepartment.OnBurnss
retirement,KerrylikenedhimtodiplomaticlegendssuchasGeorgeKennanwhoseownlongtelegramfrom
Moscowin1946,explainingthebehaviourofStalinsSovietUnion,iswidelyseenasdefiningthebeginningof
thecoldwar.
ToshieldusfromboisterousofficeworkersdowningredwineastheychomponT-bones,Iaskforatableinthe
corner.Seated,Istudythemenu.Burnsappearsbeforemeafewminuteslater.Heistall,alittlestooped,with
afullheadofgreyhairandamoustachethatgiveshimaslightlymournfullook.Heiswearingawhiteshirtand
redtielargeWhiteHousecufflinksaretheonlytouchesofflamboyance.AlthoughBurnsisbangontime,he
apologisesforbeinglate.
IhavealwaysassumedthatAmericaisnotaculturethatrewardstheself-effacing.YetBurnsappearstobean
exceptiontothisrule.Duringthecourseofourlunch,hewillapologisetomeforbeinglate,fortalkingtoomuch
andfornoteatingsalad.Hewillalsothankmeforbeinggenerouswithmytimeandsuggestthattwocelebrated
diplomaticmemorandumsattributedtohimwere,infact,largelywrittenbyhiscolleagues.ACaucasus
Weddingwasone.Theother,entitledthePerfectStorm,wasco-writtenbyBurnsshortlybeforetheUS
invasionofIraqin2003andaccuratelypredictedmanyofthemaligndevelopmentsthatwouldfollowthe
overthrowofSaddamHussein.
Thesedays,BurnsispresidentoftheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,theoldestinternational
affairsthink-tankintheUS.Hehasbeeninthejobforjust10months,soIaskhimifheisnostalgicforthe
statedepartmentwherehemethiswife,Lisa,whentheywerebothtraineediplomats.Burnsacknowledges
that,aftersomanyyearsatthecentreofevents,hemissestheconstantstreamofthingscomingintoyour
inboxandjusttheadrenalinerush.
Thoseadrenalinrusheswereafairlyregularpartofhiscareer.InAugust1990,

hewasworkinginthepolicyplanningsectionofthestatedepartmentwhen
SaddamHusseininvadedKuwait.Thefollowingyear,therewasanattempted
More coupagainstMikhailGorbachev,thepresidentoftheSovietUnion.Memoriesof
LUNCHWITHTHEFT
thoseeventsgiveBurnsacertainperspectiveontodaysdramas.Asheputsit:
SeppBlatter
IvesatintheSituationRoom[intheWhiteHouse]inrecentyearsandheard
BenBernanke
peoplesaythatthingshaveneverbeenmorechaotic...Thetruthisthat,inthat
NovakDjokovic
period,therewasanawfullotgoingon.
JonathanFranzen,author
Thewaitressarrives.Igoforpottedcrabtostart,followedbyasirloinsteakand
chips,withagreensaladontheside.Burnsoptsforthelessextravagantoptionof
Signupnow
theexpressmenu:atomatosaladfollowedbyahamburger.Askedhowhewants
hisburgerdone,hesaysmedium.Pink,saysthewaitress.Yes,saysBurns,
apparentlyunwillingtoarguethepoint.
Heturnstomeapologeticallyandsays:SorrytobeaboringAmericanandorder
thehamburger.Itisthekindofself-deprecatingremarkthatisliabletoconfirm
FirstFTisournewessential theworstsuspicionsofAmericasmorerabidconservatives,wholiketoaccuse
dailyemailbriefingofthebest thestatedepartmentofconstantlyapologisingforAmerica.IntheRepublican
storiesfromacrosstheweb
partytoday,worldlysophisticatessuchasBurnsaresuspectfigures.Hehasa
doctorateininternationalrelations,gainedwhilestudyingasaMarshallscholarat
Oxforduniversity,andspeaksgoodenoughRussian,ArabicandFrenchtobeable
togivetelevisioninterviewsinallthreelanguages.
TalkingtoBurns,however,Idiscoverthatheisahugeadmirerofanearliergenerationofinternationalist
RepublicanpolicymakersinparticularJimBakerandBrentScowcroft,whoassecretaryofstateandnational
securityadviserhelpedthefirstPresidentBushtonavigatethedangersoftheendofthecoldwar.
ItellBurnsthatmanyEuropeansalsomournthepassingofthatgenerationofRepublicansandaredeeply
alarmedbytheriseofDonaldTrump.BurnsevidentlysympathiseswiththisTrump-phobia.Ifthatever
manifesteditselfinAmericanforeignpolicy,lotsofpeopleoughttobealarmed,hesays,lamentingthatinthe
currentcontestfortheRepublicannomination,theforeignpolicydebatesometimesseemstocomedownto
whowantstobuildabiggerwall,andshoulditbewithMexicoorCanada.
CouldTrumpgettheRepublicannomination?Burnslooksalarmedandshakeshishead.Ihaveaveryhard
timeimaginingthat.
OnethingthatBurnsdidmanagetoimaginewasthechaosthatfollowedtheUSinvasionofIraq.Iaskabouthis
PerfectStormmemo,writtenin2002,whichhasyettobefullydeclassified.Burnssaysthatheandhis
colleaguestriedtolookaheadalittlebitatthesecondandthird-orderconsequencesofinvadingIraqand
addswegotitabouthalf-right,inanticipatingthechallenges,sectarianandotherwise.
SodidheanticipatetheempowermentofIranthatwouldfollowthefallofHussein?Yeah,yeah,hereplies
wearily.Givenallthat,Iaskwhyhehadnotchosentoresign?Burnsrepliesthathehasenormousrespectfor
thehandfulofUSdiplomats,mainlybasedoverseas,whohadresignedinprotestatthedecisiontoinvadeIraq,
butaddsmostofmycolleaguesmadeadifferentdecisiontotryasbestyoucould,tobehonestwithinthe
systemabouttheweaknessesintheargument.Hesaysthat,inretrospect,Thewholenotionthatyoucould
imposedemocracyfromtheoutsidehasbeenproventobehollow.
Asthefoodarrives,weturntothemostpressingproblemoftodaythecontinuingchaosinIraqandSyria.
BurnsquietlysuggeststhattheObamaadministrationofwhichhewasaprominentmemberuntillastyear
gotitwrong.OnSyria,hesays:Weshouldhavetriedharderinearly2012,perhapswithamoreserious
efforttoarmthemoderateSyrianopposition.BeforethemostrecentRussianintervention,Burnshadcometo
believethattheUSanditsalliesshouldcreatesafehavenswithalimitedno-flyzoneinsouthernSyria.Hestill
thinksAmericashouldstepupitsmilitaryroletohelpcreatetheconditionsforapoliticalsolution.Weneedto
enablediplomacybybuildingupsomeleverage.ThatswhatPutinisdoing.
Hehasbeentalkingsomuchthathehasbarelyhadtimetotryhisfood,soIoffertoaskaverylongquestionto
givehimtimetoeat.Sorry,hesays,Ivebeentalkingtoomuch.Iaminterestedtoseeifyearsonthe
diplomaticcircuithavetrainedhimtoeatahamburgerwithaknifeandfork(IhaveevenseenBritish
diplomatseatbananasthisway).But,no,hepicksitupwithhishands.
WeturntoVladimirPutin,whomBurnsgottoobserveatclosequartersduringhisstintasUSambassadorin
Moscow.TheexperiencelefthimconvincedthattheRussianleadertendstobemoreofanimproviserthan
anythingelse.But,Ireply,somepeoplereckonthatPutinhasamasterplantore-createtheSovietUnion.
Burnsrollshiseyesslightly.MyownviewisthathewantstorestoreRussiasstatusasagreatpower...but
thatsnotthesameasreconstructingtheSovietUnion.What,Iask,istheRussianleaderlikepersonally?
Hesverysharp,hetriestointimidatepeopleinconversations...tokeepthemwaitingforlongperiods,Burns
observesmildly.IsaythatonmymostrecentvisittoMoscow,Ihadbeenstruckbythenationalistatmosphere
andatthisBurnsssoftlyspokentonegiveswaytosomethingmoreemphatic.Thatdoesworryme,hesays
firmly,thisconstantsuspicionoffifthcolumnists,thepoisonousatmospherethatcreatedtheconditionsforthe
murderofBorisNemtsov[anoppositionpoliticianwhowaskilledlastFebruary]500metresfromtheKremlin
wall.
ThatpoisonousatmospherehasalsoaffectedtheoperationsoftheCarnegieEndowment,whichhaslonghada
high-profileofficeinMoscowthatprovidedastreamofinfluentialandoftencriticalcommentaryonmodern
Russianpolitics.IaskBurnswhysomeofthatofficesmostprominentcriticsofPutinacademicssuchasLilia
ShevtsovaandMashaLipmanhaveleftCarnegie.ThathappenedbeforeIarrived,henotesquickly,adding
thathebelievesthatthescholarsatCarnegieMoscowarestilldoingstrong,independentwork,butthatitisa
verycomplicatedatmosphereinwhichtooperate.
Asadiplomat,BurnsslastbigassignmentwasthesecretdiplomacywithIran,whichlaidthefoundationforthis
yearsdealtoreinintheIslamicRepublicsnuclearprogrammeinreturnforaneasingofwesternsanctionson
Iran.TheinitialtalkstookplaceatamilitaryguesthouseinOmanwithasuccessionofsecretmeetingsbetween
MarchandNovemberof2013.
Wetalkedfortwoorthreedaysatatime...Itwassometimes130Foutside...
Hawksmoor
Itbecameapparentprettyquicklytheywereseriousaboutattemptingtodothe
11LangleyStreet,London, deal.Itssurprisinginthisdayandagethatwemanagedtokeepitquietaslong
WC2H9JG
aswedid.ButdidhetrusthisIraniancounterparts?Apparently,thatisthe
Sparklingwater3.75
wrongquestion.
PottedBrixhamcrab12 IneveraskedifIcouldtrustthem...Itsadifferentissueaboutwhetheryou
respectthemasprofessionalsandiftheycoulddeliver.So,Isuggest,itwaslike
Sirloinsteak27.50
theoldReagansloganduringarms-controlnegotiationswiththeSoviets:Trust,
Drippingfries4
butverify.No,hereplies,trustwasnottheissueItsallaboutverification.
Lettuceandherbssalad4 Burnshasfinishedhisburgerandhadgenerouslyletmepickathisfries,soI
offerhimsomeofmysidesalad.Hedeclinesandapologisesagainformypoor
Peppercornsauce4
eatinghabits.
Doubleespressox26.50
Forhim,thewiderpointabouttheIrandealwasthatitrestoreddiplomacytoa
2-courseexpressmenu24 centralplaceinUSforeignpolicy.Burnsisthesonofanarmyofficerwhofought
inVietnamandwasborninthemilitarytownofFortBragg,NorthCarolina,so
Heritagetomatosalad
thereisnoreasontodoubthimwhenhesays:Ihaveenormousrespectforthe
Hamburger
USmilitary.Headds,however,thatAmericahastoooftentendedtoputan
emphasisonforce,withdiplomacyusedtoclearthewayformilitaryaction,orto
AgainstHungerdonation1 clearuptheaftermath.
Optionalservice10.59
AsBurnsseesit,thatwasthemistakemadeovertheIraqwar.Inhisview,the
Total96.34
emphasisinUSforeignpolicyshouldbeondiplomacy,withthemilitaryinthe
backgroundasanenabler.ThusinSyriadiplomaticeffortstoendthewarshould
beattheforefrontofpolicy,withthethreatofmilitaryforceusedasameansof
increasingdiplomaticleverage.
OnediplomaticeffortthathasnotpaidoffwasJohnKerrysfreneticeffortin2013and2014tocreatepeace
betweenIsraelandthePalestinians.IputittoBurnsthatsomeofhiscolleagueshadalwaysfeltthatitwas
quixoticofKerrytoattempttogetanIsraeli-Palestiniandealwhensomanyhadfailedbeforehim.Thereisa
hintofasmileashereplies:Iadmiredtheeffort,Ireallydid...Theonlychallengeisthereareopportunity
costs,whenyoulookattheAsia-Pacificrebalanceareferencetothemuch-discussedefforttodevotemore
AmericanattentiontoChina.
Ourplatesarecleared.Itistimeforcoffee.IorderadoubleespressoandBurnsfollowssuit.
WhilethereisjustahintofscepticisminBurnssremarksaboutJohnKerry,hisadmirationforHillaryClinton
seemsunfeigned.Hesaysthat,alongwithJimBaker,shewasthemostprofessionalsecretaryofstatehe
workedfor.Perhapsitwassomethingtodowiththembothbeinglawyersbutitwasveryraretogointoa
roomwiththemandfindsomebodywhowasbetterbriefed.
SomespeculatethatBurnsmightevenreturnassecretaryofstateinaHillaryClintonadministration,buthe
batstheideaawaywithashakeoftheheadwhenIbringitup.
Draininghiscupofcoffee,hesaysheisveryhappyinhisnewrole.Thewell-wornclichaboutspendingmore
timewithhisfamilyactuallyseemstoapplyinBurnsscase.NowIgethomeatadecenttimeatnight.Or,ifI
dont,itsmyownfault.Icantblamesomecrisisintheworld.
GideonRachmanistheFTschiefforeignaffairscommentator
Senttime: 11/02/201502:46:39PM
FW:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussianpolicy
Subject:
[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussian
policy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]
ConsistentRussianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenby
EconomicFear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]Consistent
Russianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEconomic
Fear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
From:AndersAslund<AAslund@atlanticcouncil.org>
Subject:UkraineMustNotPayRussia
To:
DearFriends,
PleasefindbelowlinktomyAtlanticCouncilblogpostthatUkrainemustnotpayRussia$3billionfortheEurobonddesignedtosave
Yanukovych.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraine-must-not-pay-russia
Bestregards,
Anders
Andersslund|SeniorFellow
103015thStreet,NW,12thFloor|Washington,DC20005
E:AAslund@AtlanticCouncil.org|Phone:(202)864-2848
Followmeontwitter:@anders_aslund
www.facebook.com/AtlanticCouncil|@AtlanticCouncil|www.atlanticcouncil.org
Readmynewbook:"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt"
Subject:Sinaiplanecrash:'Externalinfluence'causedcrash-BBCNews
MaybeitwasjustKarma.
Date:Sun,Nov1,2015at10:57PM
Subject:ConsistentRussianpolicy[ED:Compare&Contrast]
To:1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,1WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wderzko@pathcom.com
Subject:RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
TheMoscowTimes
Oct.28201520:11
Russia'supperchamberofparliamenthasapprovedabilltoallowretaliatorymeasuresinresponsetotheseizureofRussianassetsabroad,the
RIANovostinewsagencyreportedWednesday.
ThelawgivesauthoritiesthepowertolimitthelegalimmunityofaforeigncountryanditspropertyonRussianterritoryinresponsetosimilar
restrictioninthatcountry.
ItnowawaitsPresidentVladimirPutin'ssignaturebeforebecominglaw.
Undercurrentlegislation,Russiancourtscannotseizeassetsbelongingtoforeigngovernments.AccordingtoDeputyJusticeMinisterDmitry
Aristov,thisputsRussiainaweakpositiontoprotectitsinterests,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.
AristovsaidtheintroductionofthelawbecomeapriorityfollowinganumberofillegalactionsagainstRussiaanditspropertyoverseas.
Earlierthisyear,RussianassetswereseizedinBelgiumandFranceafterthearbitrationcourtinTheHagueorderedRussiatopay$50billionin
compensationtoformershareholdersoilfirmYukos,whichwasdismemberedinthemid2000safteritsowner,MikhailKhodorkovsky,was
jailedonchargesoftaxevasion.
Russiarefusedtocarryoutthecourt'sdecision.
OtherassetshavealsobeenfrozenfollowingtheintroductionlastyearofsanctionsbyWesterncountriesagainstRussiaoveritsroleinUkraine,
includingsomebelongingtostate-runnewsagenciesTASSandRossiyaSegodnya
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/540597.html
Subject:Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier,BillBrowder,
Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier
OutspokencriticBillBrowderwarnsRussianmilitaryactivityinSyriaisaimedateasingWesternsanctions
BillBrowder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanager,saysRussia'smilitaryactioninSyriahasmoretodowitheconomicsthanpolitics.
By:OliviaWardForeignAffairsReporter,PublishedonSunNov012015
RussiasmilitaryactioninSyriaisaploytoeasewesternsanctionsthatpunishMoscowforitsincursionsintoUkraine,saysanauthorityon
Russiaseconomicsystem,andformermajorinvestor.
RussiasairstrikesandtroopsinSyriaarearelativelyinexpensivegambitthatcostsabout$2millionaday,BillBrowdersaidonavisitto
Torontothisweek.Butwhenitcausesanotherfloodofrefugees,theWestcouldbuckle.
Browder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanagerwhofoundedmultibilliondollarHermitageCapitalManagement,contendsthat
Russiasmilitarymoveismoreeconomicthanpolitical.
Byjoiningtheconflict,headds,(PresidentVladimir)PutinthinkstherewillbeaUNstyledivisionofSyria,andhewillbepartofit.Putin
understandshowvolatiletherefugeesituationis.
Itsgeopolitics.PutinwouldkeepwhathehasinUkraine,andUkrainewouldbethrownunderthebus.
Russianairstrikeshavebeencitedasacauseofanewrefugeeflight,andcriticizedbytheU.S.andotherwesterncountriesasaneffortto
keepMoscowallyPresidentBasharAssadinpower.
WashingtonanditsallieshavebombedSyriaformorethanayearwithoutbreakingtheholdofIslamicStatejihadiststhoughtheairstrikes
havealsocausedcivilianstofleetheirhomes.
ButBrowderargues,RussiasrushtobattleinSyriacouldbringmoreriskthanreward.
Acombinationofahardcurrencydebt,thesinkingrubleandlowoilpricescompoundedbycapitalflightandthedifficultyofgettingwestern
financingisputtingthestabilityofthePutinregimeinperil,hesays.
Andheadds,amuchpublicizedcampaigntoblockandevendestroyimportedwesternfood,isameasuretosavedwindlinghardcurrency
reserves.
WorryovertheSyrianventurehasalreadytrickleddowntotheRussianstreet,accordingtoarecentsurveybytheindependentMoscow
basedLevadaCenter.
Itfoundthat41percentofrespondentsfearthemilitaryoperationwillexhaustfundsneededtosolvesocialproblems,whileanother39per
centfearthedeathofRussiansoldiersinSyriaorinterroristattacksathome.
InspiteofadramaticmeetingwithAssadinMoscowthisweek,andreportsthattheSyrianleaderwasreadytocallparliamentaryand
presidentialpollsitisdoubtfulthatPutincouldtopushSyriatowardasettlementthathaseludedtheWest.
EquallyunlikelyistheprospectofMoscowrejoiningwesterncountriesforbusinessasusual,afteritsannexationofCrimeaandbackingof
separatistrebelsineasternUkraine.
SofarneitherthemilitaryactionsinUkraineorSyriaappeartohavepuncturedPutinsbuoyantpopularityinRussia,althoughincreasing
worriesovertheeconomycoulddragitdownwhenthecostsbecomeclear.
Heisputtingonabraveface,saysBrowder,butwhenhelooksattheeconomiccosts,hesdeeplyfrightened.
InCanadaearlierthisweek,BrowderwascampaigningfortoughersanctionsagainstRussiaforthekillingofhisformertaxlawyer,Sergei
Magnitsky,whodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afterblowingthewhistleonamassive$320milliontaxfraudinvolvingRussianofficials.
RussiaclaimsMagnitskydiedfromnaturalcauses,butaRussianhumanrightsreportshowedevidenceofpossibletortureandmedical
neglect.
BrowderwantsprimeministerdesignateJustinTrudeautoadoptsanctionssimilartothosepassedbytheU.S.Congress,whichbarred
officialsnamedresponsibleforMagnitskysdeathfromtraveltotheU.S.,andfrozetheirassets.
Russiaretaliatedwithpunitiveantiwesternsanctions.
TheLiberalssaidtheywouldimmediatelyexpandCanadaslistofsanctionedRussianstoincludeinfluentialbusinessmenandclosePutin
supporters,IgorSechinandVladimirYakunin.
BrowderhaslivedinLondonsince2005,whenhewasexpelledfromRussiaasathreattonationalsecurity,afterchallengingcorrupt
practices.
SinceMagnitskysdeathhehascampaignedtirelesslyforsanctionstopunishtheallegedperpetrators,andtocurbMoscowsescalating
humanrightsviolations.HeisnowunderanineyearRussianjailsentenceinabsentiaonwidelydisputedchargesoftaxfraud.
BrowdermaintainsthatPutinsincreasinglyauthoritarianstylehasnowcrossedthelinetototalitarian.
AsRussiasantiWesternsentimentreachespostSoviethighs,Putinhasdeepenedhiscrackdownagainstsuspecteddomesticpolitical
opponents.ThedeathsofseveralKremlinfoesinmurkycircumstanceshaveraisedfearsofadarkeningpoliticallandscape.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/11/01/putin-driven-by-economic-fears-says-former-russia-financier.html
From:RoslyckyLada<l.roslycky@uatoday.tv>
Subject:anynewsonsecurityevent?[/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth]
Bytheway,notsureifyoureadthis:
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth-524207.html
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@earthlink.net>
Subject:ImperialGamble|BrookingsInstitution
AnewofferingfromBrookings.NotedwithoutcommentasIhavenothadachancetoreadit.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2015/07/imperial-gamble?
utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=23345040&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-
9_5z564qjBH32BbaSkjbozJ364WO5KTyx4T3K4Lib_O_5pflFPbOvLJUG_9yIc3l4bW_s3_zIBZJHOZ0yuy4tqApPWYQ&_hsmi=23345040
[ED:Actually.....thereissomethingtonoticeimmediately]
MarvinKalb,aformerjournalistandHarvardprofessor,traceshowtheCrimeaofCatherinetheGreatbecameaglobal
tinderbox.TheworldwasstunnedwhenVladimirPutininvadedandseizedCrimeainMarch2014.Shortlythereafter,the
RussiansthrewtheirsupportbehindsecessionistrebelsinneighboringUkraine,pitchingthecountryintoabrutaland
continuingcivilwar.AnominousandsharpdeteriorationinEast-Westrelationsfollowed.
InImperialGamble:Putin,Ukraine,andtheNewColdWar,MarvinKalbbringstolifethegeography,powerpolitics,and
historyofUkraineonceknowasKievenRus,ortheFirstRussia.Hetakesacriticallookatthetorturedhistoryofpost-
SovietRussiaandUkraine,andjourneysdeepintotheRussianpasttouncovertherootsofRussianandUkrainian
nationalism.
[ED:SIMPLEQUESTION----What'swithKievenRus'(actuallyKyivanRus'....orperhapsevenmore
simply'thecity-stateofKyivy')as'FirstRussia'?Why??Inreality,'Russia'isa16th-18thc.Moscow-
centricconstruct....]
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Subject:FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:Walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FollowandSupportFPI

FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
ByFPISeniorPolicyAnalystEvanMooreandFPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnik
OnFriday,rocketsfiredbyBasharal-Assadstroopsslammedintoanopen-airmarketintheDamascussuburbofDouma.Airstrikes,mortars,andartilleryfire
followedtheinitialattack,leavingatotalof65deadandhundredswounded.InresponsetotherelentlessbrutalityoftheSyrianregime,supportisgrowing
onbothsidesoftheaisleandwithintheObamaadministrationfortheimpositionofano-flyzonethatwouldpreventAssadsforcesfromsowingterrorwith
itsairforces.
GrowingBipartisanSupport
Fouryearsago,inhisannualaddresstotheU.N.GeneralAssembly,PresidentObamaasked,Aswemeetheretoday,menandwomenandchildrenarebeing
tortured,detainedandmurderedbytheSyrianregime.thequestionforusisclear:WillwestandwiththeSyrianpeople,orwiththeiroppressors?Whilethere
hasbeennolackofsympathyfortheplightoftheSyrianpeoplesincethen,therehasalsobeennodecisiveactiontoprotectthemfromtheviolencethathasnow
claimedanestimated300,000lives,driven4millionSyriansfromtheircountry,anddisplacednearlyanother8millionwithinSyriasborders.
InApril,fourprominentSenatorsDickDurbin(D-IL),LindseyGraham(R-SC),TimKaine(D-VA),andJohnMcCain(R-AZ)sentalettertoPresidentObama
callingonhimtoestablishhumanitariansafezonesinSyria,withthenecessaryenforcementmechanisms,includingthepotentialuseofairassetssothatcivilians
canbeprotectedandreceiveunfetteredhumanitarianaid.Kainelaterobservedthathewasoriginallyanopponentofano-flyzonewhenitwasfirstproposedby
Sen.McCain,yeteventsonthegroundhadpersuadedhimofitsnecessity.
TheadventoftheSyrianrefugeecrisisaswellasthearrivalofRussianforcesintheatersharplyacceleratedthegrowthofpublicsupportforano-flyzone.The
dayafterRussianbombsbegantofallinSyria,formerSecretaryofStateHillaryRodhamClintonsaid,Ipersonallywouldbeadvocatingnowforano-flyzoneand
humanitariancorridorstotrytostopthecarnageonthegroundandfromtheair.Clintonssupportfollowedendorsementsofano-flyzonebyRepublican
candidates,formerFloridaGov.JebBushandFloridaSen.MarcoRubio.
InOctober,severalotherGOPcandidatesannouncedtheirsupportforano-flyzone,withDonaldTrumpthemostnotableopponentoftheidea.Clintons
opponents,Sen.BernieSanders(I-VT)andformerMarylandGov.MartinOMalleybothopposetheideaaswell.
Nationalsecurityexpertshavealsojoinedthedebate.FormerSecretaryofDefenseRobertGatesandSecretaryofStateCondoleezzaRicewrote,No-flyzonesand
safeharborsforpopulationsarenothalf-bakedideas.Theyworkedbefore(protectingtheKurdsfor12yearsunderSaddamHusseinsreignofterror)and
warrantseriousconsideration.Wewillcontinuetohaverefugeesuntilpeoplearesafe.Inshort,wemustcreateabettermilitarybalanceofpowerontheground
ifwearetoseekapoliticalsolutionacceptabletousandtoourallies.
GatesandRicewererespondingdirectlytocommentsbyPresidentObama,whodismissedproposalsforano-flyzonebysaying,whenIhearpeopleofferingup
half-bakedideasasiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeopleaskis,specifically,precisely,
whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo.
PresidentObamasownadvisers,includingSecretaryofStateJohnKerry,havenotfoundhisdismissaltobepersuasive,however.TheNewYork
TimesreportedonFriday,TheObamaadministrationislockedinasharpnewdebateoverwhethertodeployAmericanmilitaryforcestoestablishno-flyzones
andsafehavensinSyriatoprotectcivilianscaughtinitsgrindingcivilwar.AmongtheoptionsreportedlybeingconsideredareareasalongSyriasborderwith
TurkeyandJordanthatcouldeitherbeexclusivelyforhumanitarianrelief,orsanctuaryforSyrianoppositionforcesalliedwithAmericans.
Seniormilitaryexpertshaveexpressedtheirbeliefthatano-flyzoneiseminentlypractical.InSenatetestimonyonSeptember22,GeneralDavidPetraeusmade
anemphaticcaseforenclavesinSyriaprotectedbycoalitionairpower,whereamoderateSunniforcecouldbesupportedandwhereadditionalforcescouldbe
trained,InternallyDisplacedPersonscouldfindrefuge,andtheSyrianoppositioncouldorganize.ThecentralprobleminSyria,Petraeussaid,isthatSunni
ArabswillnotbewillingpartnersagainsttheIslamicStateunlesswecommittoprotectthemandthebroaderSyrianpopulationagainstallenemies,notjustISIS.
OnOctober8,retiredArmyGeneralandformerViceChiefofStaffJackKeanetoldtheSenateArmedServicesCommitteethatPutinhasbegunaproxywarwith
theU.S.whenRussiancombataircraftstruck,continuously,moderaterebelforcestrainedbytheCIA.Inresponse,GeneralKeanerecommendedU.S.craterthe
AlAssadrunway[whichisbeingusedbyRussiatostriketargetsinSyria],establishfreezonesthataresanctuariesforrefugees,[and]strikeAssadshelicopter
fleetthatisbarrelbombing.
Meanwhile,SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonreiteratedhersupportduringthefirstDemocraticprimarydebate,saying,Wehavetostandupto[Putins]bullying,
andspecificallyinSyria,itisimportanttoprovidesafezonessothatpeoplearenotgoingtohavetobefloodingoutofSyriaattheratetheyare.And,Ithinkit's
importanttoothattheUnitedStatesmakeitverycleartoPutinthatit'snotacceptableforhimtobeinSyriacreatingmorechaos,bombingpeopleonbehalfof
Assad,andwecan'tdothatifwedon'ttakemoreofaleadershipposition.
TheChallengesofImposingaNo-FlyZone
Whenconfrontedwithcallsforano-flyzone,theadministrationhasreliedonPentagonleaderstoquestionthepracticalityandcostoftheidea.Initsreporton
divisionswiththeadministration,theNewYorkTimesdescribedhowSecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterpresentedsoberingestimatesoftheextensivemilitary
resourcesrequiredtoenforcesuchzones,duringarecentNationalSecurityCouncilmeeting,leavingmanyatthetabledubiousaboutthewisdomoftaking
action.
SecretaryCartersobjectionsechosimilarconcernsfromtheformerChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,GeneralMartinDempsey.InJuly2013,
Dempseywarnedthatestablishingano-flyzonewouldrequirehundredsofgroundandsea-basedaircraft,intelligenceandelectronicwarfaresupport,and
enablersforrefuelingandcommunications.Estimatedcostsare$500millioninitially,averagingasmuchasabilliondollarspermonthoverthecourseofayear.
Atthesametime,anindependentanalysisbyChristopherHarmeroftheInstitutefortheStudyofWarfoundthatAmericanairandnavalforcescouldimposea
no-flyzonebydestroyingtherunwaysatSyrianAirForcebases.HarmerconcludedthatthismissioncouldbeaccomplishedatverylowcostwithoutU.S.
aircraftevenenteringSyrianairspace,sinceU.S.forceshaveweaponswithsufficientrangetostrikefromadistance.
Unquestionably,thepresenceofRussianforceswillcomplicateanyefforttoimposeano-flyzone,yetarangeofoptionsremainavailabletotheadministration,
noneofwhichinvolveadirectconfrontationwithRussia.Byplacinganti-aircraftweaponsjustacrossthebordersthatSyriashareswithJordanandTurkey,the
U.S.couldcrediblythreatentoshootdownSyrianaircraftthatflyoverrebel-heldterritorynearthoseborders.SinceRussianaircraftareonlyflyingoutofasingle
baseneartheSyriancoast,theU.S.couldalsopursueHarmers2013proposalfordestroyingSyrianmilitaryrunways.
DiplomaticLeverage
Successatthenegotiatingtabledependsonestablishingfavorablepositionsontheground.OnFriday,foreignministersfrom20nationsgatheredinViennato
discussthefutureofSyria.AheadofthemeetinginVienna,theObamaadministrationhadalreadybeguntomakeconcessions.OnceinsistentthatBasharal-
AssadmuststepdowninordertofacilitateapeacefultransitioninSyria,theadministrationnowsaysthatAssadmayremaininpowerseveralmonthslonger.
ItisparticularlytroublingthattheseU.S.concessionshavefollowedRussiasinterventionandIransdeploymentofcombatforcestoSyria.Toreversethat
dynamic,theU.S.oughttoincreaseitsownleveragebyestablishingano-flyzone,whosehumanitarianbenefitsshouldbecomplementedbyaseriouseffortto
trainandequipSyrianoppositionforcesinareasnolongeraccessibletoAssadsairforce.
ThecivilwarinSyriademonstratesthecostofAmericanpassivity.ThewarhasenabledISIStothrivewhileenablingRussiatoreturntotheMiddleEastaftera40
yearabsence.ThelongerPresidentObamawaitstotakedecisiveaction,theworsethesituationwillget.
AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
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policycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisledbyExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoard
ofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visitourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
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Senttime: 11/08/201507:01:18AM
To: BobOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:FTInterviewwithBillBurns
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3d4619f6-82f8-11e5-8095-ed1a37d1e096.html
LUNCHWITHTHEFT November6,20153:58pm
LunchwiththeFT:BillBurns
GideonRachman
Share Authoralerts Print Clip Fromthememo

GiftArticle Comments
thatpredicted
chaosinIraqtosecretmeetingsaboutanucleardealwithIran,thediplomattalks
abouttheadrenalinerushofalifeininternationaldiplomacy
WhenPresidentObamawantedsomebodytoopensecretnegotiations
withIranin2013,heturnedtoBillBurns,widelyregardedasoneof
thefinestandmostdiscreetUSdiplomatsofhisgeneration.ButasI
waitforthe59-year-oldtoarriveattheCoventGardenbranchof
Hawksmoor,anupmarketchainrestaurantinLondonspecialisingin
steaks,itstrikesmethat,inanotherlife,Burnsmighthimselfhave
writtenanentertainingLunchwiththeFT.
AfterthousandsofAmericandiplomaticcableswereleakedtothe
internationalpressviaWikiLeaksin2010,Burnsfoundhimselfan
unexpectedbeneficiary.ACaucasusWedding,atelegramhesentto
theUSstatedepartmentin2006whilehewasambassadortoRussia,
recountingaraucousthree-dayDagestaniweddingattendedby
ChechnyaspresidentRamzanKadyrov,wasdescribedasaminor
classicofcomicwriting,itstoneverymuchnotwhatonemightexpect
ofadiplomaticcable.
Cooksseemedtokeepwholesheepandwholecowsboilingina
cauldronsomewhere,dayandnight,dumpingdisjointedfragmentsof
thecarcassonthetables,wheneversomeoneenteredtheroom,
JamesFerguson
Burnsnoted.Thealcoholconsumptionbefore,duringandafterthis
Muslimweddingwasstupendous...Therewasalsoentertainment,
althoughGadzismainact,aSyrian-bornsingernamedAvraamRusso,couldnotmakeitbecausehewasshota
fewdaysbeforethewedding.
Burnssdaysofwritingdiplomaticcablesareoverfornow.HeretiredfromtheUSgovernmentlastyearaftera
33-yearcareerthatculminatedinspellsasdeputysecretaryofstatetobothHillaryClintonandJohnKerry.He
isonlythesecondcareerdiplomatinUShistorytohavemadeitthathighupthedepartment.OnBurnss
retirement,KerrylikenedhimtodiplomaticlegendssuchasGeorgeKennanwhoseownlongtelegramfrom
Moscowin1946,explainingthebehaviourofStalinsSovietUnion,iswidelyseenasdefiningthebeginningof
thecoldwar.
ToshieldusfromboisterousofficeworkersdowningredwineastheychomponT-bones,Iaskforatableinthe
corner.Seated,Istudythemenu.Burnsappearsbeforemeafewminuteslater.Heistall,alittlestooped,with
afullheadofgreyhairandamoustachethatgiveshimaslightlymournfullook.Heiswearingawhiteshirtand
redtielargeWhiteHousecufflinksaretheonlytouchesofflamboyance.AlthoughBurnsisbangontime,he
apologisesforbeinglate.
IhavealwaysassumedthatAmericaisnotaculturethatrewardstheself-effacing.YetBurnsappearstobean
exceptiontothisrule.Duringthecourseofourlunch,hewillapologisetomeforbeinglate,fortalkingtoomuch
andfornoteatingsalad.Hewillalsothankmeforbeinggenerouswithmytimeandsuggestthattwocelebrated
diplomaticmemorandumsattributedtohimwere,infact,largelywrittenbyhiscolleagues.ACaucasus
Weddingwasone.Theother,entitledthePerfectStorm,wasco-writtenbyBurnsshortlybeforetheUS
invasionofIraqin2003andaccuratelypredictedmanyofthemaligndevelopmentsthatwouldfollowthe
overthrowofSaddamHussein.
Thesedays,BurnsispresidentoftheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,theoldestinternational
affairsthink-tankintheUS.Hehasbeeninthejobforjust10months,soIaskhimifheisnostalgicforthe
statedepartmentwherehemethiswife,Lisa,whentheywerebothtraineediplomats.Burnsacknowledges
that,aftersomanyyearsatthecentreofevents,hemissestheconstantstreamofthingscomingintoyour
inboxandjusttheadrenalinerush.
Thoseadrenalinrusheswereafairlyregularpartofhiscareer.InAugust1990,

hewasworkinginthepolicyplanningsectionofthestatedepartmentwhen
SaddamHusseininvadedKuwait.Thefollowingyear,therewasanattempted
More coupagainstMikhailGorbachev,thepresidentoftheSovietUnion.Memoriesof
LUNCHWITHTHEFT
thoseeventsgiveBurnsacertainperspectiveontodaysdramas.Asheputsit:
SeppBlatter
IvesatintheSituationRoom[intheWhiteHouse]inrecentyearsandheard
BenBernanke
peoplesaythatthingshaveneverbeenmorechaotic...Thetruthisthat,inthat
NovakDjokovic
period,therewasanawfullotgoingon.
JonathanFranzen,author
Thewaitressarrives.Igoforpottedcrabtostart,followedbyasirloinsteakand
chips,withagreensaladontheside.Burnsoptsforthelessextravagantoptionof
Signupnow
theexpressmenu:atomatosaladfollowedbyahamburger.Askedhowhewants
hisburgerdone,hesaysmedium.Pink,saysthewaitress.Yes,saysBurns,
apparentlyunwillingtoarguethepoint.
Heturnstomeapologeticallyandsays:SorrytobeaboringAmericanandorder
thehamburger.Itisthekindofself-deprecatingremarkthatisliabletoconfirm
FirstFTisournewessential theworstsuspicionsofAmericasmorerabidconservatives,wholiketoaccuse
dailyemailbriefingofthebest thestatedepartmentofconstantlyapologisingforAmerica.IntheRepublican
storiesfromacrosstheweb
partytoday,worldlysophisticatessuchasBurnsaresuspectfigures.Hehasa
doctorateininternationalrelations,gainedwhilestudyingasaMarshallscholarat
Oxforduniversity,andspeaksgoodenoughRussian,ArabicandFrenchtobeable
togivetelevisioninterviewsinallthreelanguages.
TalkingtoBurns,however,Idiscoverthatheisahugeadmirerofanearliergenerationofinternationalist
RepublicanpolicymakersinparticularJimBakerandBrentScowcroft,whoassecretaryofstateandnational
securityadviserhelpedthefirstPresidentBushtonavigatethedangersoftheendofthecoldwar.
ItellBurnsthatmanyEuropeansalsomournthepassingofthatgenerationofRepublicansandaredeeply
alarmedbytheriseofDonaldTrump.BurnsevidentlysympathiseswiththisTrump-phobia.Ifthatever
manifesteditselfinAmericanforeignpolicy,lotsofpeopleoughttobealarmed,hesays,lamentingthatinthe
currentcontestfortheRepublicannomination,theforeignpolicydebatesometimesseemstocomedownto
whowantstobuildabiggerwall,andshoulditbewithMexicoorCanada.
CouldTrumpgettheRepublicannomination?Burnslooksalarmedandshakeshishead.Ihaveaveryhard
timeimaginingthat.
OnethingthatBurnsdidmanagetoimaginewasthechaosthatfollowedtheUSinvasionofIraq.Iaskabouthis
PerfectStormmemo,writtenin2002,whichhasyettobefullydeclassified.Burnssaysthatheandhis
colleaguestriedtolookaheadalittlebitatthesecondandthird-orderconsequencesofinvadingIraqand
addswegotitabouthalf-right,inanticipatingthechallenges,sectarianandotherwise.
SodidheanticipatetheempowermentofIranthatwouldfollowthefallofHussein?Yeah,yeah,hereplies
wearily.Givenallthat,Iaskwhyhehadnotchosentoresign?Burnsrepliesthathehasenormousrespectfor
thehandfulofUSdiplomats,mainlybasedoverseas,whohadresignedinprotestatthedecisiontoinvadeIraq,
butaddsmostofmycolleaguesmadeadifferentdecisiontotryasbestyoucould,tobehonestwithinthe
systemabouttheweaknessesintheargument.Hesaysthat,inretrospect,Thewholenotionthatyoucould
imposedemocracyfromtheoutsidehasbeenproventobehollow.
Asthefoodarrives,weturntothemostpressingproblemoftodaythecontinuingchaosinIraqandSyria.
BurnsquietlysuggeststhattheObamaadministrationofwhichhewasaprominentmemberuntillastyear
gotitwrong.OnSyria,hesays:Weshouldhavetriedharderinearly2012,perhapswithamoreserious
efforttoarmthemoderateSyrianopposition.BeforethemostrecentRussianintervention,Burnshadcometo
believethattheUSanditsalliesshouldcreatesafehavenswithalimitedno-flyzoneinsouthernSyria.Hestill
thinksAmericashouldstepupitsmilitaryroletohelpcreatetheconditionsforapoliticalsolution.Weneedto
enablediplomacybybuildingupsomeleverage.ThatswhatPutinisdoing.
Hehasbeentalkingsomuchthathehasbarelyhadtimetotryhisfood,soIoffertoaskaverylongquestionto
givehimtimetoeat.Sorry,hesays,Ivebeentalkingtoomuch.Iaminterestedtoseeifyearsonthe
diplomaticcircuithavetrainedhimtoeatahamburgerwithaknifeandfork(IhaveevenseenBritish
diplomatseatbananasthisway).But,no,hepicksitupwithhishands.
WeturntoVladimirPutin,whomBurnsgottoobserveatclosequartersduringhisstintasUSambassadorin
Moscow.TheexperiencelefthimconvincedthattheRussianleadertendstobemoreofanimproviserthan
anythingelse.But,Ireply,somepeoplereckonthatPutinhasamasterplantore-createtheSovietUnion.
Burnsrollshiseyesslightly.MyownviewisthathewantstorestoreRussiasstatusasagreatpower...but
thatsnotthesameasreconstructingtheSovietUnion.What,Iask,istheRussianleaderlikepersonally?
Hesverysharp,hetriestointimidatepeopleinconversations...tokeepthemwaitingforlongperiods,Burns
observesmildly.IsaythatonmymostrecentvisittoMoscow,Ihadbeenstruckbythenationalistatmosphere
andatthisBurnsssoftlyspokentonegiveswaytosomethingmoreemphatic.Thatdoesworryme,hesays
firmly,thisconstantsuspicionoffifthcolumnists,thepoisonousatmospherethatcreatedtheconditionsforthe
murderofBorisNemtsov[anoppositionpoliticianwhowaskilledlastFebruary]500metresfromtheKremlin
wall.
ThatpoisonousatmospherehasalsoaffectedtheoperationsoftheCarnegieEndowment,whichhaslonghada
high-profileofficeinMoscowthatprovidedastreamofinfluentialandoftencriticalcommentaryonmodern
Russianpolitics.IaskBurnswhysomeofthatofficesmostprominentcriticsofPutinacademicssuchasLilia
ShevtsovaandMashaLipmanhaveleftCarnegie.ThathappenedbeforeIarrived,henotesquickly,adding
thathebelievesthatthescholarsatCarnegieMoscowarestilldoingstrong,independentwork,butthatitisa
verycomplicatedatmosphereinwhichtooperate.
Asadiplomat,BurnsslastbigassignmentwasthesecretdiplomacywithIran,whichlaidthefoundationforthis
yearsdealtoreinintheIslamicRepublicsnuclearprogrammeinreturnforaneasingofwesternsanctionson
Iran.TheinitialtalkstookplaceatamilitaryguesthouseinOmanwithasuccessionofsecretmeetingsbetween
MarchandNovemberof2013.
Wetalkedfortwoorthreedaysatatime...Itwassometimes130Foutside...
Hawksmoor
Itbecameapparentprettyquicklytheywereseriousaboutattemptingtodothe
11LangleyStreet,London, deal.Itssurprisinginthisdayandagethatwemanagedtokeepitquietaslong
WC2H9JG
aswedid.ButdidhetrusthisIraniancounterparts?Apparently,thatisthe
Sparklingwater3.75
wrongquestion.
PottedBrixhamcrab12 IneveraskedifIcouldtrustthem...Itsadifferentissueaboutwhetheryou
respectthemasprofessionalsandiftheycoulddeliver.So,Isuggest,itwaslike
Sirloinsteak27.50
theoldReagansloganduringarms-controlnegotiationswiththeSoviets:Trust,
Drippingfries4
butverify.No,hereplies,trustwasnottheissueItsallaboutverification.
Lettuceandherbssalad4 Burnshasfinishedhisburgerandhadgenerouslyletmepickathisfries,soI
offerhimsomeofmysidesalad.Hedeclinesandapologisesagainformypoor
Peppercornsauce4
eatinghabits.
Doubleespressox26.50
Forhim,thewiderpointabouttheIrandealwasthatitrestoreddiplomacytoa
2-courseexpressmenu24 centralplaceinUSforeignpolicy.Burnsisthesonofanarmyofficerwhofought
inVietnamandwasborninthemilitarytownofFortBragg,NorthCarolina,so
Heritagetomatosalad
thereisnoreasontodoubthimwhenhesays:Ihaveenormousrespectforthe
Hamburger
USmilitary.Headds,however,thatAmericahastoooftentendedtoputan
emphasisonforce,withdiplomacyusedtoclearthewayformilitaryaction,orto
AgainstHungerdonation1 clearuptheaftermath.
Optionalservice10.59
AsBurnsseesit,thatwasthemistakemadeovertheIraqwar.Inhisview,the
Total96.34
emphasisinUSforeignpolicyshouldbeondiplomacy,withthemilitaryinthe
backgroundasanenabler.ThusinSyriadiplomaticeffortstoendthewarshould
beattheforefrontofpolicy,withthethreatofmilitaryforceusedasameansof
increasingdiplomaticleverage.
OnediplomaticeffortthathasnotpaidoffwasJohnKerrysfreneticeffortin2013and2014tocreatepeace
betweenIsraelandthePalestinians.IputittoBurnsthatsomeofhiscolleagueshadalwaysfeltthatitwas
quixoticofKerrytoattempttogetanIsraeli-Palestiniandealwhensomanyhadfailedbeforehim.Thereisa
hintofasmileashereplies:Iadmiredtheeffort,Ireallydid...Theonlychallengeisthereareopportunity
costs,whenyoulookattheAsia-Pacificrebalanceareferencetothemuch-discussedefforttodevotemore
AmericanattentiontoChina.
Ourplatesarecleared.Itistimeforcoffee.IorderadoubleespressoandBurnsfollowssuit.
WhilethereisjustahintofscepticisminBurnssremarksaboutJohnKerry,hisadmirationforHillaryClinton
seemsunfeigned.Hesaysthat,alongwithJimBaker,shewasthemostprofessionalsecretaryofstatehe
workedfor.Perhapsitwassomethingtodowiththembothbeinglawyersbutitwasveryraretogointoa
roomwiththemandfindsomebodywhowasbetterbriefed.
SomespeculatethatBurnsmightevenreturnassecretaryofstateinaHillaryClintonadministration,buthe
batstheideaawaywithashakeoftheheadwhenIbringitup.
Draininghiscupofcoffee,hesaysheisveryhappyinhisnewrole.Thewell-wornclichaboutspendingmore
timewithhisfamilyactuallyseemstoapplyinBurnsscase.NowIgethomeatadecenttimeatnight.Or,ifI
dont,itsmyownfault.Icantblamesomecrisisintheworld.
GideonRachmanistheFTschiefforeignaffairscommentator
Senttime: 10/31/201502:50:50PM
Subject: RE:PaulSinger,InfluentialBillionaire,ThrowsSupporttoMarcoRubioforPresident-TheNewYorkTimes
Jebisfinished.I'vejoinedRubio'steam.
From:RobertOtto[robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Saturday,October31,20155:31AM
To:DavidKramer
Subject:PaulSinger,InfluentialBillionaire,ThrowsSupporttoMarcoRubioforPresident-TheNewYorkTimes
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/31/us/politics/paul-singer-influential-billionaire-throws-support-to-marco-rubio-
for-president.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-
news&WT.nav=top-news
PaulSinger,InfluentialBillionaire,Throws
SupporttoMarcoRubioforPresident
PaulSingerinLasVegasin2012.Abillionaire,hegivesmoneytoRepublicancandidatesand
causes,oftentoup-and-comingcandidates.SteveMarcus/Reuters
OneofthewealthiestandmostinfluentialRepublicandonorsinthecountryisthrowinghissupporttoSenatorMarco
RubioofFlorida,adecisionthatcouldswingmillionsofdollarsincontributionsbehindMr.Rubioatacriticalpointin
theRepublicannominatingbattle.
Thedecisionbythedonor,PaulSinger,abillionaireNewYorkinvestor,isasignalvictoryforMr.Rubioinhisbattle
withhisrivalJebBushfortheaffectionsofmajorRepublicanpatronsandthepartysbusinesswing.
ItcomesasamajorblowtoMr.Bush,whoisseeinghisoncevigorouscampaignimperiledbydoubtsamong
supporters,andwhoseearlydominanceoftheracewasdrivenbyhisfinancialmuscle.Mr.Bushandseveralother
candidates,includingGov.ChrisChristieofNewJersey,hadcompetedfiercelyforMr.Singersblessing.
InaletterthatMr.SingersenttodozensofotherdonorsonFriday,whichwasobtainedbyTheNewYorkTimes,
Mr.SingerdescribedMr.RubiowhowaselectedtotheSenateintheTeaPartywavebuthasbeenembracedby
thepartysWashingtoneliteastheonlycandidatewhocannavigatethiscomplexprimaryprocess,andstillbein
apositiontodefeatHillaryRodhamClintoninageneralelection.
SenatorMarcoRubioatacampaigneventinDerry,N.H.,thismonth.IanThomasJansen-LonnquistforTheNew
YorkTimes
HepraisedMr.RubiosmessageofoptimismaboutAmericasfuture,hisworkontheSenateForeignRelations
Committeeandhisabilitytomakeapersuasivecasetovotersaskeyreasonstosupporthim.
HeisaccustomedtothinkingaboutAmericanforeignpolicyasaresponsiblepolicymaker,Mr.Singerwrote.He
isreadytobeaninformedandassertivedecision-maker.
AlexConant,aspokesmanforMr.Rubio,welcomedtheendorsement,adding,Weknowwehavealotofworkto
dobeforeMarcowinsthenomination,butclearlythismovesusintherightdirection.
Mr.Singer,whogavemoremoneytoRepublicancandidatesandcauseslastyearthananydonorinthecountry,
accordingtotheCenterforResponsivePolitics,iscourtedbyRepublicansbothforthedepthofhisownpocketsand
forhiswidenetworkofotherconservativegivers.Heisknownforhiscautionandcarefulvettingofcandidatesand,
whilepassionatelypro-Israelandasupporterofsame-sexmarriage,heisgenerallyviewedasadonorwhodoesnot
believeinlitmustests.
Inrecentyears,hehasfrequentlydeployedhisnetworktocultivateup-and-comingRepublicanswhohebelievescan
helpexpandthepartysdemographicappeal.AmongthemareRepresentativeEliseStefanikofNewYork,the
youngestwomaneverelectedtoCongress,andMr.Rubiohimself,whomMr.Singerbackedearlyinhis2010race
whenmanyofMr.SingerspeerssidedwithCharlieCrist,thenFloridasRepublicangovernoramomentthatwas
seenasaturningpointintherace.
ThebattleforMr.Singerssupportwhichincludedmonthsofbehind-the-sceneslobbyingbyaidesand
appearancesbycandidatesoverthelastyearatdinnersandbreakfastsconvenedbyMr.Singerunderscoresthe
growingcloutofbigdonorsinpresidentialelections,particularlythisyear,whensuperPACs,andthewealthy
donorswhofinancethem,havemovedtothecenteroftherace.
ButMr.SingerprovidessomethingthatsomeothercovetedRepublicandonorsdonot.UnlikeSheldonAdelson,a
fellowRepublicanbillionaireandIsraelsupporter,Mr.Singerisanassiduousandeffectivebundlerforcandidates:
Inthe2012campaign,heraisedmorethan$3milliontotrytohelpelectMittRomney,theeventualRepublican
nominee.Manyotherdonors,particularintheNewYorkfinancialworld,turntoMr.Singerspoliticaladvisersfor
strategicguidanceontheirowndonations.
AndMr.Rubio,whostruggledtoraisecampaigncashoverthesummerandhasreliedheavilyonoutsidegroupsto
payforadvertisementspromotinghim,needstheirhelp.
BothMr.RubioandMr.BusheagerlysoughtMr.Singersbacking,asdidMr.Christie,andallthreehavetiestothe
wealthyhedgefundmanager.
Mr.Rubiohasaggressivelyembracedthecauseofwealthypro-IsraeldonorslikeMr.Adelson,whomthesenatoris
saidtocallfrequently,andMr.Singer,whobothserveontheboardoftheRepublicanJewishCoalition,anumbrella
groupforRepublicanJewishdonorsandofficials.Mr.Bushhasbeenlessattentive,intheviewofsomeofthese
donors:Lastspring,herefusedtofreezeouthislongtimefamilyfriendJamesA.BakerIII,theformersecretaryof
state,afterMr.BakerspokeattheconferenceofaliberalJewishgroup.
ThelobbyingofMr.SingerintensifiedinrecentweeksasMr.Bushsdebatestumblesanddecliningpollnumbers
drovemanydonorstoconsiderMr.Rubioanew.Lastweek,Mr.Bushscampaignmanager,DannyDiaz,andsenior
adviser,SallyBradshaw,flewtoNewYorktomakepersonalappealsonMr.Bushsbehalf,inthehopesofheading
offanendorsementofMr.Rubio,accordingtotwopeopleclosetotheformergovernorscampaign.
ButMr.SingerhadbeenleaningtowardMr.Rubio,andtherewasnosinglemomentthatconvincedhim,these
peoplesaid.Itwastimetomakehissupportknown.Mr.Singer,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwithhisthinkingleading
uptotheendorsement,takeshistimeweighinganendorsementinpresidentialraces,aftermakinganearly
commitmenttoRudolphW.Giulianiinthe2008raceandseeinghiscandidatefalter.
Inhislettertohisdonornetwork,Mr.SingerdescribedMr.Rubioasthebestexplainerofconservatisminpubliclife
today,andoneofthebestcommunicatorsthemodernRepublicanPartyhasseen.MarcoRubiocanappealtoboth
theheadandtheheart.
Oftheroughly1,200peoplewhoraisedmoneyorhostedfund-raisingeventsforMr.Romneyin2012,accordingto
aNewYorkTimesanalysis,abouttwo-thirdshadyettogiveadonationtoanyoftheRepublicancandidatesthrough
theendofSeptember,themostrecentdisclosuresavailablefromtheFederalElectionCommission.
Mr.BushandMr.Rubiohavecompetedfiercelyinthemoneyrace,targetingmanyofthesamedonorsandbundlers,
especiallyinFlorida,whereMr.RubioservesassenatorandMr.Bushwasgovernor.SomeBushdonorssaid
privatelythattheyoriginallyjoinedMr.BushsoperationoutofrespectforandloyaltytotheformerFloridagovernor,
despiteabeliefthatMr.Rubiomighthavebeenthepartysbetterbet.NowtheyareexpressingconcernaboutMr.
BushsattacksonMr.Rubio,sayingMr.BushsdirectswipeduringthedebateatMr.Rubioscharacterand
credibilitywasdangerousforbothmen.
Mr.BushsstilteddebateperformanceshavesetoffanewroundofjockeyingasMr.Rubiossupportersseektolure
someBushbackerstotheircamp.SeveralpeopleinvolvedinMr.Rubiosfund-raisingsaidtheyhadbeenfielding
callsfromBushdonorssinceWednesdaysdebate,suggestingtheywererethinkingtheirdecision.
Idontknowifyoullgetatsunamiofpeopleimmediately,becausethesearegoodpeople,andtheyareloyal,said
JonathanBurkan,aNewYorkfinancialexecutivewhoissupportingMr.Rubio.Butyoullgetsomepeople.
AmongMr.Bushssupportersafterthedebate,thetonewasoftenoneofdespair,butitwasrarelyprojectedin
publiccomments.SeveralofthemsaidtheytookheartthatMr.Bushhadacknowledgedthatheneededtobeamore
artfulpoliticalperformerintheweeksahead.
Inatelephoneinterview,thedonorandformerambassadorunderPresidentsGeorgeH.W.BushandGeorgeW.
Bush,MelSembler,saidthatthesuperPACsupportingMr.Bush,RighttoRise,isholdingstrongwithFlorida
supporters.
ButwillpeopleoutsideFloridadecampfromMr.Bushsside?Ihopenot,hereplied.
Correction:October30,2015
AnearlierversionofthisarticleincorrectlystatedwhenPaulSingerraisedmorethan$3milliontotrytohelp
electMittRomney.Themoneywasraisedduringboththeprimaryandgeneralelectionin2012,notjustthe
primary.
Senttime: 11/02/201502:46:39PM
FW:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussianpolicy
Subject:
[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussian
policy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]
ConsistentRussianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenby
EconomicFear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]Consistent
Russianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEconomic
Fear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
From:AndersAslund<AAslund@atlanticcouncil.org>
Subject:UkraineMustNotPayRussia
To:
DearFriends,
PleasefindbelowlinktomyAtlanticCouncilblogpostthatUkrainemustnotpayRussia$3billionfortheEurobonddesignedtosave
Yanukovych.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraine-must-not-pay-russia
Bestregards,
Anders
Andersslund|SeniorFellow
103015thStreet,NW,12thFloor|Washington,DC20005
E:AAslund@AtlanticCouncil.org|Phone:(202)864-2848
Followmeontwitter:@anders_aslund
www.facebook.com/AtlanticCouncil|@AtlanticCouncil|www.atlanticcouncil.org
Readmynewbook:"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt"
Subject:Sinaiplanecrash:'Externalinfluence'causedcrash-BBCNews
MaybeitwasjustKarma.
Subject:ConsistentRussianpolicy[ED:Compare&Contrast]
Subject:RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
TheMoscowTimes
Oct.28201520:11
Russia'supperchamberofparliamenthasapprovedabilltoallowretaliatorymeasuresinresponsetotheseizureofRussianassetsabroad,the
RIANovostinewsagencyreportedWednesday.
ThelawgivesauthoritiesthepowertolimitthelegalimmunityofaforeigncountryanditspropertyonRussianterritoryinresponsetosimilar
restrictioninthatcountry.
ItnowawaitsPresidentVladimirPutin'ssignaturebeforebecominglaw.
Undercurrentlegislation,Russiancourtscannotseizeassetsbelongingtoforeigngovernments.AccordingtoDeputyJusticeMinisterDmitry
Aristov,thisputsRussiainaweakpositiontoprotectitsinterests,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.
AristovsaidtheintroductionofthelawbecomeapriorityfollowinganumberofillegalactionsagainstRussiaanditspropertyoverseas.
Earlierthisyear,RussianassetswereseizedinBelgiumandFranceafterthearbitrationcourtinTheHagueorderedRussiatopay$50billionin
compensationtoformershareholdersoilfirmYukos,whichwasdismemberedinthemid2000safteritsowner,MikhailKhodorkovsky,was
jailedonchargesoftaxevasion.
Russiarefusedtocarryoutthecourt'sdecision.
OtherassetshavealsobeenfrozenfollowingtheintroductionlastyearofsanctionsbyWesterncountriesagainstRussiaoveritsroleinUkraine,
includingsomebelongingtostate-runnewsagenciesTASSandRossiyaSegodnya
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/540597.html
Subject:Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier,BillBrowder,
Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier
OutspokencriticBillBrowderwarnsRussianmilitaryactivityinSyriaisaimedateasingWesternsanctions
BillBrowder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanager,saysRussia'smilitaryactioninSyriahasmoretodowitheconomicsthanpolitics.
By:OliviaWardForeignAffairsReporter,PublishedonSunNov012015
RussiasmilitaryactioninSyriaisaploytoeasewesternsanctionsthatpunishMoscowforitsincursionsintoUkraine,saysanauthorityon
Russiaseconomicsystem,andformermajorinvestor.
RussiasairstrikesandtroopsinSyriaarearelativelyinexpensivegambitthatcostsabout$2millionaday,BillBrowdersaidonavisitto
Torontothisweek.Butwhenitcausesanotherfloodofrefugees,theWestcouldbuckle.
Browder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanagerwhofoundedmultibilliondollarHermitageCapitalManagement,contendsthat
Russiasmilitarymoveismoreeconomicthanpolitical.
Byjoiningtheconflict,headds,(PresidentVladimir)PutinthinkstherewillbeaUNstyledivisionofSyria,andhewillbepartofit.Putin
understandshowvolatiletherefugeesituationis.
Itsgeopolitics.PutinwouldkeepwhathehasinUkraine,andUkrainewouldbethrownunderthebus.
Russianairstrikeshavebeencitedasacauseofanewrefugeeflight,andcriticizedbytheU.S.andotherwesterncountriesasaneffortto
keepMoscowallyPresidentBasharAssadinpower.
WashingtonanditsallieshavebombedSyriaformorethanayearwithoutbreakingtheholdofIslamicStatejihadiststhoughtheairstrikes
havealsocausedcivilianstofleetheirhomes.
ButBrowderargues,RussiasrushtobattleinSyriacouldbringmoreriskthanreward.
Acombinationofahardcurrencydebt,thesinkingrubleandlowoilpricescompoundedbycapitalflightandthedifficultyofgettingwestern
financingisputtingthestabilityofthePutinregimeinperil,hesays.
Andheadds,amuchpublicizedcampaigntoblockandevendestroyimportedwesternfood,isameasuretosavedwindlinghardcurrency
reserves.
WorryovertheSyrianventurehasalreadytrickleddowntotheRussianstreet,accordingtoarecentsurveybytheindependentMoscow
basedLevadaCenter.
Itfoundthat41percentofrespondentsfearthemilitaryoperationwillexhaustfundsneededtosolvesocialproblems,whileanother39per
centfearthedeathofRussiansoldiersinSyriaorinterroristattacksathome.
InspiteofadramaticmeetingwithAssadinMoscowthisweek,andreportsthattheSyrianleaderwasreadytocallparliamentaryand
presidentialpollsitisdoubtfulthatPutincouldtopushSyriatowardasettlementthathaseludedtheWest.
EquallyunlikelyistheprospectofMoscowrejoiningwesterncountriesforbusinessasusual,afteritsannexationofCrimeaandbackingof
separatistrebelsineasternUkraine.
SofarneitherthemilitaryactionsinUkraineorSyriaappeartohavepuncturedPutinsbuoyantpopularityinRussia,althoughincreasing
worriesovertheeconomycoulddragitdownwhenthecostsbecomeclear.
Heisputtingonabraveface,saysBrowder,butwhenhelooksattheeconomiccosts,hesdeeplyfrightened.
InCanadaearlierthisweek,BrowderwascampaigningfortoughersanctionsagainstRussiaforthekillingofhisformertaxlawyer,Sergei
Magnitsky,whodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afterblowingthewhistleonamassive$320milliontaxfraudinvolvingRussianofficials.
RussiaclaimsMagnitskydiedfromnaturalcauses,butaRussianhumanrightsreportshowedevidenceofpossibletortureandmedical
neglect.
BrowderwantsprimeministerdesignateJustinTrudeautoadoptsanctionssimilartothosepassedbytheU.S.Congress,whichbarred
officialsnamedresponsibleforMagnitskysdeathfromtraveltotheU.S.,andfrozetheirassets.
Russiaretaliatedwithpunitiveantiwesternsanctions.
TheLiberalssaidtheywouldimmediatelyexpandCanadaslistofsanctionedRussianstoincludeinfluentialbusinessmenandclosePutin
supporters,IgorSechinandVladimirYakunin.
BrowderhaslivedinLondonsince2005,whenhewasexpelledfromRussiaasathreattonationalsecurity,afterchallengingcorrupt
practices.
SinceMagnitskysdeathhehascampaignedtirelesslyforsanctionstopunishtheallegedperpetrators,andtocurbMoscowsescalating
humanrightsviolations.HeisnowunderanineyearRussianjailsentenceinabsentiaonwidelydisputedchargesoftaxfraud.
BrowdermaintainsthatPutinsincreasinglyauthoritarianstylehasnowcrossedthelinetototalitarian.
AsRussiasantiWesternsentimentreachespostSoviethighs,Putinhasdeepenedhiscrackdownagainstsuspecteddomesticpolitical
opponents.ThedeathsofseveralKremlinfoesinmurkycircumstanceshaveraisedfearsofadarkeningpoliticallandscape.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/11/01/putin-driven-by-economic-fears-says-former-russia-financier.html
From:RoslyckyLada<l.roslycky@uatoday.tv>
Subject:anynewsonsecurityevent?[/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth]
Bytheway,notsureifyoureadthis:
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth-524207.html
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@earthlink.net>
Subject:ImperialGamble|BrookingsInstitution
AnewofferingfromBrookings.NotedwithoutcommentasIhavenothadachancetoreadit.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2015/07/imperial-gamble?
utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=23345040&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-
9_5z564qjBH32BbaSkjbozJ364WO5KTyx4T3K4Lib_O_5pflFPbOvLJUG_9yIc3l4bW_s3_zIBZJHOZ0yuy4tqApPWYQ&_hsmi=23345040
[ED:Actually.....thereissomethingtonoticeimmediately]
MarvinKalb,aformerjournalistandHarvardprofessor,traceshowtheCrimeaofCatherinetheGreatbecameaglobal
tinderbox.TheworldwasstunnedwhenVladimirPutininvadedandseizedCrimeainMarch2014.Shortlythereafter,the
RussiansthrewtheirsupportbehindsecessionistrebelsinneighboringUkraine,pitchingthecountryintoabrutaland
continuingcivilwar.AnominousandsharpdeteriorationinEast-Westrelationsfollowed.
InImperialGamble:Putin,Ukraine,andtheNewColdWar,MarvinKalbbringstolifethegeography,powerpolitics,and
historyofUkraineonceknowasKievenRus,ortheFirstRussia.Hetakesacriticallookatthetorturedhistoryofpost-
SovietRussiaandUkraine,andjourneysdeepintotheRussianpasttouncovertherootsofRussianandUkrainian
nationalism.
[ED:SIMPLEQUESTION----What'swithKievenRus'(actuallyKyivanRus'....orperhapsevenmore
simply'thecity-stateofKyivy')as'FirstRussia'?Why??Inreality,'Russia'isa16th-18thc.Moscow-
centricconstruct....]
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Subject:FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:Walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FollowandSupportFPI

FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
ByFPISeniorPolicyAnalystEvanMooreandFPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnik
OnFriday,rocketsfiredbyBasharal-Assadstroopsslammedintoanopen-airmarketintheDamascussuburbofDouma.Airstrikes,mortars,andartilleryfire
followedtheinitialattack,leavingatotalof65deadandhundredswounded.InresponsetotherelentlessbrutalityoftheSyrianregime,supportisgrowing
onbothsidesoftheaisleandwithintheObamaadministrationfortheimpositionofano-flyzonethatwouldpreventAssadsforcesfromsowingterrorwith
itsairforces.
GrowingBipartisanSupport
Fouryearsago,inhisannualaddresstotheU.N.GeneralAssembly,PresidentObamaasked,Aswemeetheretoday,menandwomenandchildrenarebeing
tortured,detainedandmurderedbytheSyrianregime.thequestionforusisclear:WillwestandwiththeSyrianpeople,orwiththeiroppressors?Whilethere
hasbeennolackofsympathyfortheplightoftheSyrianpeoplesincethen,therehasalsobeennodecisiveactiontoprotectthemfromtheviolencethathasnow
claimedanestimated300,000lives,driven4millionSyriansfromtheircountry,anddisplacednearlyanother8millionwithinSyriasborders.
InApril,fourprominentSenatorsDickDurbin(D-IL),LindseyGraham(R-SC),TimKaine(D-VA),andJohnMcCain(R-AZ)sentalettertoPresidentObama
callingonhimtoestablishhumanitariansafezonesinSyria,withthenecessaryenforcementmechanisms,includingthepotentialuseofairassetssothatcivilians
canbeprotectedandreceiveunfetteredhumanitarianaid.Kainelaterobservedthathewasoriginallyanopponentofano-flyzonewhenitwasfirstproposedby
Sen.McCain,yeteventsonthegroundhadpersuadedhimofitsnecessity.
TheadventoftheSyrianrefugeecrisisaswellasthearrivalofRussianforcesintheatersharplyacceleratedthegrowthofpublicsupportforano-flyzone.The
dayafterRussianbombsbegantofallinSyria,formerSecretaryofStateHillaryRodhamClintonsaid,Ipersonallywouldbeadvocatingnowforano-flyzoneand
humanitariancorridorstotrytostopthecarnageonthegroundandfromtheair.Clintonssupportfollowedendorsementsofano-flyzonebyRepublican
candidates,formerFloridaGov.JebBushandFloridaSen.MarcoRubio.
InOctober,severalotherGOPcandidatesannouncedtheirsupportforano-flyzone,withDonaldTrumpthemostnotableopponentoftheidea.Clintons
opponents,Sen.BernieSanders(I-VT)andformerMarylandGov.MartinOMalleybothopposetheideaaswell.
Nationalsecurityexpertshavealsojoinedthedebate.FormerSecretaryofDefenseRobertGatesandSecretaryofStateCondoleezzaRicewrote,No-flyzonesand
safeharborsforpopulationsarenothalf-bakedideas.Theyworkedbefore(protectingtheKurdsfor12yearsunderSaddamHusseinsreignofterror)and
warrantseriousconsideration.Wewillcontinuetohaverefugeesuntilpeoplearesafe.Inshort,wemustcreateabettermilitarybalanceofpowerontheground
ifwearetoseekapoliticalsolutionacceptabletousandtoourallies.
GatesandRicewererespondingdirectlytocommentsbyPresidentObama,whodismissedproposalsforano-flyzonebysaying,whenIhearpeopleofferingup
half-bakedideasasiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeopleaskis,specifically,precisely,
whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo.
PresidentObamasownadvisers,includingSecretaryofStateJohnKerry,havenotfoundhisdismissaltobepersuasive,however.TheNewYork
TimesreportedonFriday,TheObamaadministrationislockedinasharpnewdebateoverwhethertodeployAmericanmilitaryforcestoestablishno-flyzones
andsafehavensinSyriatoprotectcivilianscaughtinitsgrindingcivilwar.AmongtheoptionsreportedlybeingconsideredareareasalongSyriasborderwith
TurkeyandJordanthatcouldeitherbeexclusivelyforhumanitarianrelief,orsanctuaryforSyrianoppositionforcesalliedwithAmericans.
Seniormilitaryexpertshaveexpressedtheirbeliefthatano-flyzoneiseminentlypractical.InSenatetestimonyonSeptember22,GeneralDavidPetraeusmade
anemphaticcaseforenclavesinSyriaprotectedbycoalitionairpower,whereamoderateSunniforcecouldbesupportedandwhereadditionalforcescouldbe
trained,InternallyDisplacedPersonscouldfindrefuge,andtheSyrianoppositioncouldorganize.ThecentralprobleminSyria,Petraeussaid,isthatSunni
ArabswillnotbewillingpartnersagainsttheIslamicStateunlesswecommittoprotectthemandthebroaderSyrianpopulationagainstallenemies,notjustISIS.
OnOctober8,retiredArmyGeneralandformerViceChiefofStaffJackKeanetoldtheSenateArmedServicesCommitteethatPutinhasbegunaproxywarwith
theU.S.whenRussiancombataircraftstruck,continuously,moderaterebelforcestrainedbytheCIA.Inresponse,GeneralKeanerecommendedU.S.craterthe
AlAssadrunway[whichisbeingusedbyRussiatostriketargetsinSyria],establishfreezonesthataresanctuariesforrefugees,[and]strikeAssadshelicopter
fleetthatisbarrelbombing.
Meanwhile,SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonreiteratedhersupportduringthefirstDemocraticprimarydebate,saying,Wehavetostandupto[Putins]bullying,
andspecificallyinSyria,itisimportanttoprovidesafezonessothatpeoplearenotgoingtohavetobefloodingoutofSyriaattheratetheyare.And,Ithinkit's
importanttoothattheUnitedStatesmakeitverycleartoPutinthatit'snotacceptableforhimtobeinSyriacreatingmorechaos,bombingpeopleonbehalfof
Assad,andwecan'tdothatifwedon'ttakemoreofaleadershipposition.
TheChallengesofImposingaNo-FlyZone
Whenconfrontedwithcallsforano-flyzone,theadministrationhasreliedonPentagonleaderstoquestionthepracticalityandcostoftheidea.Initsreporton
divisionswiththeadministration,theNewYorkTimesdescribedhowSecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterpresentedsoberingestimatesoftheextensivemilitary
resourcesrequiredtoenforcesuchzones,duringarecentNationalSecurityCouncilmeeting,leavingmanyatthetabledubiousaboutthewisdomoftaking
action.
SecretaryCartersobjectionsechosimilarconcernsfromtheformerChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,GeneralMartinDempsey.InJuly2013,
Dempseywarnedthatestablishingano-flyzonewouldrequirehundredsofgroundandsea-basedaircraft,intelligenceandelectronicwarfaresupport,and
enablersforrefuelingandcommunications.Estimatedcostsare$500millioninitially,averagingasmuchasabilliondollarspermonthoverthecourseofayear.
Atthesametime,anindependentanalysisbyChristopherHarmeroftheInstitutefortheStudyofWarfoundthatAmericanairandnavalforcescouldimposea
no-flyzonebydestroyingtherunwaysatSyrianAirForcebases.HarmerconcludedthatthismissioncouldbeaccomplishedatverylowcostwithoutU.S.
aircraftevenenteringSyrianairspace,sinceU.S.forceshaveweaponswithsufficientrangetostrikefromadistance.
Unquestionably,thepresenceofRussianforceswillcomplicateanyefforttoimposeano-flyzone,yetarangeofoptionsremainavailabletotheadministration,
noneofwhichinvolveadirectconfrontationwithRussia.Byplacinganti-aircraftweaponsjustacrossthebordersthatSyriashareswithJordanandTurkey,the
U.S.couldcrediblythreatentoshootdownSyrianaircraftthatflyoverrebel-heldterritorynearthoseborders.SinceRussianaircraftareonlyflyingoutofasingle
baseneartheSyriancoast,theU.S.couldalsopursueHarmers2013proposalfordestroyingSyrianmilitaryrunways.
DiplomaticLeverage
Successatthenegotiatingtabledependsonestablishingfavorablepositionsontheground.OnFriday,foreignministersfrom20nationsgatheredinViennato
discussthefutureofSyria.AheadofthemeetinginVienna,theObamaadministrationhadalreadybeguntomakeconcessions.OnceinsistentthatBasharal-
AssadmuststepdowninordertofacilitateapeacefultransitioninSyria,theadministrationnowsaysthatAssadmayremaininpowerseveralmonthslonger.
ItisparticularlytroublingthattheseU.S.concessionshavefollowedRussiasinterventionandIransdeploymentofcombatforcestoSyria.Toreversethat
dynamic,theU.S.oughttoincreaseitsownleveragebyestablishingano-flyzone,whosehumanitarianbenefitsshouldbecomplementedbyaseriouseffortto
trainandequipSyrianoppositionforcesinareasnolongeraccessibletoAssadsairforce.
ThecivilwarinSyriademonstratesthecostofAmericanpassivity.ThewarhasenabledISIStothrivewhileenablingRussiatoreturntotheMiddleEastaftera40
yearabsence.ThelongerPresidentObamawaitstotakedecisiveaction,theworsethesituationwillget.
AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreign
policycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisledbyExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoard
ofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visitourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
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Senttime: 10/30/201512:30:26PM
FW:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU
Subject:
&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,October30,201511:00AM
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHON
THEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting
...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Oct30,2015at1:54PM
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&
FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"
(quirkybutinteresting(acounter)IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
Date:Fri,Oct30,2015at10:44AM
Subject:U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
To:1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,1WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,
wderzko@pathcom.com
U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
30.10.2015|12:30
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html\
Russiaisnolongerasuperpowerasitsdeterioratingeconomyisranked"somewherebehindSpain,"andMoscow'sinfluenceis
limitedcomparedtotheerstwhileSovietUnion,WhiteHousePressSecretaryJoshEarnesttoldreportersonThursday,
accordingtoNDTV.
REUTERS
"Russiaisnolongerasuperpower.ObservedinthelastcoupleofweeksthattheconditionofRussia'seconomyisweakandfurther
deteriorating,"Earnestsaid,thereportreads.
"Theyarenowthe15th-largesteconomyintheworld,andtheyranksomewherebehindSpain,"hesaid.
EarnestsaidRussiadoesnothavethekindofinfluencethattheSovietUniononcedidanditdoesnothavethekindofeconomicpower
thattheSovietUniononcewasabletoflex.
"Theireconomyisgettingworse,andRussiaisisolatedinasignificantway.NotjustfromcountriesinEurope,but,astheygetfurther
engagedinasectarianquagmireinsideofSyria,they'refindingthattheonlyfriendsthattheyhavetheretofightinadifficultfightwith
themisaflounderingSyriangovernmentandtheIranianregime,"hesaid.
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html
Subject:ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
wderzko@pathcom.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>
1.ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia

ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
2015-09-04
ClimatechangeiscontributingtoanincreasingnumberofnaturaldisastersandtechnologicalincidentsinnorthernRussia.
AccordingtotheFOIreportClimatechangeandnaturaldisasters:AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers,publishedin
English,theweakRussianeconomyandascepticalapproachtoclimatechangearehinderingtheimplementationofthe
measuresneeded.
Climatechangeandnaturaldisasters.AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers.
Around60percentofRussiaslandmassiscoveredbypermafrost.Butthatareaisreducinginstepwitharisingglobalmeantemperature.
Theincreasedthawingofpermafrostcreatesseriousproblems,typicallyintheformofnaturaldisastersinvolvingfloodsandforestfiresinthe
summerof2010,forexample,Russiaexperiencedaprolongedperiodofhightemperaturesduringwhichtherewereseventhousandforestfire
outbreaks.Butwhenthepermafrostthaws,thegroundtendstosettlewithadverseconsequencesforhouses,roadsandotherinfrastructure
originallydesignedtobebuiltonpermanentlyfrozenground.Inaddition,northernRussiadependssubstantiallyoniceroadsforheavytransport
duringawinterseasonthatisbecomingsteadilyshorter.
Variousestimateshavebeenmadethatsuggestthatclimatechangeonaveragecausesthelossofthousandsofliveseveryyearandentails
substantialcostsforthestrugglingeconomy,saysRogerRoffey,theFOIscientistwhohaspreparedthereport.
TheincreasesintemperaturearealsocausinglargeareasoftheArctictoremainicefreeduringpartsoftheyear.Accordingtothisreportthis
couldleadtotensionintheareabecause,amongotherthings,Russiawillwishtosafeguarditsnewoilextractionactivitieswhileother
countriesarealsoincreasingtheirpresenceintheareaandmakinggreateruseoftheNortheastPassageforcommercialshipping.Therisein
temperaturecouldalsomeanthatlargeamountsofmethanegaswillbereleasedfrommarshyareas,sohasteningtheprocessofglobal
warming.
AccordingtothereportthebigproblemisthatRussianeitherseemstohavethewill,ortoprioritisethenecessaryresources,todealwiththe
changesthataretakingplace.
Amongotherthingsthereseemstobeageneralperceptionthatawarmerclimatewillbeadvantageous,forexampleinmakingnewareas
availableforcropcultivation.Butresearchshowsthat,onthecontrary,prolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingtheeffectofreducing
theleveloffoodproduction.Wealsoseethatwhentherearefloodingeventsthatarenotproperlydealtwith,PresidentPutintendstomakean
appearanceandcastigatesomelocalleadersinsteadofensuringthatthestaterecognisesitsresponsibilityfordevisingandfundinga
sustainablesolution,saysRogerRoffey.
ThereportnotesthatthisisnothingnewforRussiasscientificcommunity.ButwhentheRussianstatedecidesinsteadtoinvestinareassuch
asdefence,criticalvoicesareunderstandablyraisedinprotest.
Whentheauthoritiesfailtogiveanyprioritytoclimateandenvironmentalissues,thoseworkinginthesefieldsarerenderedrelatively
powerless.Thescientificcommunityisofcoursedependentonfundingfromtheauthoritiessotheyhavetobecarefulintheircriticismeven
thoughtheydopublishreportsthatdescribethesituationasitis,saysRogerRoffey.
ReadmoreaboutTheprojectonRussianForeign,DefenceandSecurityPolicy(RUFS)
Subject:sSiberiaforestsburnPutindismissesclimatechange>RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkeptical
Putin
wderzko@pathcom.com
RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkepticalPutin
ByREUTERSOCT.29,2015,7:54A.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWWildfirescrackledacrossSiberiathissummer,turningskiesochreandsendingupenoughsmokefrom
burningpinestoblotoutsatelliteviewsofthe400-mile-longLakeBaikal.
Tomanyclimatescientists,theworseningfiresareaconsequenceofSiberiagettinghotter,thecarbonunleashedfromitsburning
forestsandtundraonlyaddingtoman-madefossilfuelemissions.Siberia'swildfireseasonhaslengthenedinrecentyearsandthe
2015blazeswereamongthebiggestyet,cakingthelake,the"PearlofSiberia",inashandscorchingthesurroundingpermafrost.
ButtheRussianpublicheardlittlementionofclimatechange,becausemediacoverageacrossstate-controlledtelevisionstations
andprintmediaallbutignoredit.OnnationalTV,thevillainswerelocalswhoroutinelybutcarelesslyburnofftallgrassesevery
year,andthesometimesincompetentcrewsstrugglingtoputthefiresout.
WhileWesternmediahaveexaminedtheroleofrisingtemperaturesanddroughtinthisyear'srecordwildfiresinNorthAmerica,
Russianmediacontinuetopaylittleattentiontoanissuethatanimatessomuchoftheworld.
Theindifferencereflectswidespreadpublicdoubtthathumanactivitiesplayasignificantroleinglobalwarming,atonesetby
PresidentVladimirPutin,whohasofferedonlyvagueandmodestpledgesofemissionscutsaheadofDecember'sU.N.climate
summitinParis.
Russia'sofficialviewappearstohavechangedlittlesince2003,whenPutintoldaninternationalclimateconferencethatwarmer
temperatureswouldmeanRussians"spendlessonfurcoats"while"agriculturalspecialistssayourgrainproductionwillincrease,
andthankGodforthat".
Thepresidentbelievesthat"thereisnoglobalwarming,thatthisisafraudtorestraintheindustrialdevelopmentofseveralcountries
includingRussia,"saysStanislavBelkovsky,apoliticalanalystandcriticofPutin."Thatiswhythissubjectisnottopicalforthe
majorityoftheRussianmassmediaandsocietyingeneral."
AndwithRussianmediafocusedontheeconomicsqueezeathomeandeventsinUkraineandSyriaabroad,theabsenceofa
robustmediaconversationonclimatechangemeanshisscepticismgoeslargelyunchallenged.
"Itisdifficulttospendeditorialresourcesonthingsthatarenowalowpriorityinthemidstoftheeconomiccrisis,"saysGalina
Timchenko,formereditor-in-chiefofthesuccessfulnewssiteLenta.ru.TimchenkonowrunsMeduza,apopularsitethatcovers
Russiannewsbutdevoteslittlespacetoclimateissues.
"Unfortunatelyclimatechangeisnotveryinterestingtothepublic,"shesays.
"EXTENSIVEWORK"
Putin'sscepticismdatesfromtheearly2000s,whenhisstaff"didvery,veryextensiveworktryingtounderstandallsidesofthe
climatedebate",saidAndreyIllarionov,Putin'ssenioreconomicadviseratthetimeandnowaseniorfellowattheCatoInstitutein
Washington.
"Wefoundthat,whileclimatechangedoesexist,itiscyclical,andtheanthropogenicroleisverylimited,"hesaid."Itbecameclear
thattheclimateisacomplicatedsystemandthat,sofar,theevidencepresentedfortheneedto'fight'globalwarmingwasrather
unfounded."
Thatopinionendures.DuringatriptotheArcticin2010,Putinacknowledgedthat"theclimateischanging",butrestatedhisdoubt
thathumanactivitywasthecause.
Histripwastoinspecttheretreatofthepolaricecap,somethingthatpromisestomaketheArcticoceanandnorthernSiberia
moreaccessibletoexplorationandproductionoftheoilthatRussia,theworld'sleadingproducer,dependsonforexportearnings.
MariannaPoberezhskaya,authoroftheacademicwork"CommunicatingClimateChangeinRussia",characterizedmedia
coverageinRussiaas"climatesilence",brokenonlybytheairingofofficialdoubtsaboutanyhumanimpactonglobal
temperatures.
"RussianmassmediarepeatthesamemistakethatWesternjournalistsusedtomake:thefalsebalance,wheretheideaofthe
humaneffectonclimatechangeispresentedalongwithskeptics'pointofview,"shesaid.
Russianschoolteachingalsoappearstolagbehindtherapidlyexpandingscienceonclimatechange.
Randomlysampledgeographytextbooksmakenomentionofhumanimpactontheclimate,andonecollege-leveltextstatesthat
climatechangesarecausedmainlybysolaractivity,themovementoftheplanet'scrustandvolcanoes.
"Iseewhattheyhaveabroadontheproblemofclimatechange,"saysAsyaKorolkova,15,whostudieshighschoolbiologyin
Moscow."Peopletheretalkaboutitalotyoucanfeelit'saseriousproblem.Wedon'thavethathere."
DECREASEISANINCREASE
EnvironmentalistssaythatattitudeisalsoreflectedinRussia'spledgeforDecember'sglobalsummit,onethatreceivedlittlemedia
coverageathome.
Insuggestingareductioninitsemissionsto"70to75percent"of1990levelsby2030,Moscowisactuallyproposinganincrease
from2012levels.Russianemissionsarecurrentlyfarbelowthelevelsproducedbyobsolescentex-Sovietsmokestackindustriesin
1990.
Eventhatofferishedged.RussiahassaidreachingthetargetwillrequiregenerousaccountingfortheroleRussia'sforestsplayin
removingcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere.
SomeobserversdoseesignsofaslightsofteninginMoscow'spositioninthefaceofaseriesofweatherdisasters,fromdrought
andsearingsummerfiresin2010toragingfloodsinSochiontheBlackSealastyear.
NaturalresourcesministerSergeiDonskoyhassaidextremeweathercouldcutRussia'seconomicoutputby1-2percentevery
yearforthenext15years,addingthat"thishastobetakenintoaccountwhendeterminingthepolicyandmeasuresinthefieldof
adaptationtoclimatechange".
ThebusinessnewspaperKommersant,ownedbywealthybusinessmanAlisherUsmanov,is,likesomeotherRussianmedia,taking
someinterestinthoseeconomicconsequences,thoughitalsodidnotdiscussthepossibilitythatclimatechangemighthave
contributedtotheSiberianfires.
"Iwriteaboutwhatneedstobedonetochangeproductionandconsumptionpractices-thehumaneffectontheclimateisagiven
forus,"saidKommersantjournalistAlexeyShapovalov.
Butforallthat,thereisnosignofpublicpressureonauthoritiestodomore,letaloneofPutinrelaxingRussia'shardlineaheadof
theParistalks.
"Thissubjecthasfailedtobecomeapriority,"saysKonstantinSimonov,thefounderofanon-governmentaloilandgasresearch
fundwhooftenappearsonRussianmedia.
"Russia'sattitudewillmostlikelybesomethinglikethis:Guys,youputeconomicpressureonus,introducedsanctions.Doyou
expectustobeholierthanthePopeabouttheissueyou'repushingthroughandtakealoadofresponsibilities?"
Theanswer,hesays,willbe:"No."
Subject:TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilisePutin>Facedwithoverlappingclimate,economic,
foodandenergycrises,Russiaistrulyonthebrink...It'stheEnergyStu!*d
wderzko@pathcom.com
TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilise
Putin
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/us-russia-gas-pipeline-war-syria-could-destabilise-putin-103505758
NafeezAhmed
Friday30October201512:23UTC
Militarysolutionsarenottheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicandgeopoliticalcrisesfacingRussia
Forthelastfewyears,theSaudikingdomsinsistenceonpumpingoilathighcapacityhasdramaticallydepressedoilprices.Theresult
hasunderminedSaudismajoroilrivalsinOPEClikeIranandVenezuela.
IthasalsohitRussia,hard.
RatingagencyStandard&PoorforecaststhatRussiasbudgetdeficitissettoswellto4.4percentofGDPthisyear.Russiasown
financeministryconcedesthatifexpenditurescontinueatthisrate,withinsixteenmonthsbyaroundtheendofnextyearitsoil
reservefundswillbeexhausted.
Meanwhile,overthelastyearrealincomeshavedroppedby9.8percent,andfoodpriceshavespikedby17percent,heighteningtherisk
ofcivilunrest.
Systemfailure
Rumblingalongbeneaththesurfaceofsuchfinancialwoesaredeepersystemicissues.
AreportfromtheSwedishDefenceResearchAgencynotesthatprolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingthe
effectofreducingtheleveloffoodproduction.
MostofRussiaswheatimportscomefromKazakhstan,whereclimatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbatedroughts.These
impactswouldmakefarmingharderandfoodmoreexpensive,observeDr.MarinaSharminaandDr.ChristopherJonesofthe
TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch.
Russiasloomingenergycrisisistheotherelephantintheroom.In2013,HSBCforecastedthatRussiawouldhitpeakoilbetween2018
and2019,experiencingabriefplateaubeforedecliningby30percentfrom2020to2025.
Thatyear,FitchRatingscametoprettymuchthesameconclusion.Andlastyear,LeonidFedun,vice-presidentofRussiassecondlargest
oilproducer,Lukoil,predictedthattheproductioncouldpeakearlierduetofallingoilpricesandUS-EUsanctions.
Facedwithoverlappingeconomic,foodandenergycrises,Russiaiswellandtrulyonthebrink.
Warisaracket
RussiasinterventioninSyriaisVladimirPutinsgeopoliticaltrumpcard,headingofftheimminentdefeatofSyrianpresidentBashiral-
AssadsregimeundermultipleWestern-backedrebelforces.
HisgoalwasexplainedthisOctoberinForeignAffairs,thedistinguishedjournalofWashingtonDCsCouncilonForeignRelations.
MostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompeting
pipelineprojectsthatseektocrossSyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope,wroteProfessorMitchell
OrensteinoftheDavisCenterforRussianandEurasianStudiesatHarvardUniversity.
IhadreportedonthecompetinggaspipelineplansfortheGuardianin2013.Twoyearslater,ForeignAffairsisfinallycatchingup.
AsOrensteinexplained,in2009,QatarproposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
TurkeyHowever,SyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdidnotwanttoseeitspositioninEuropean
gasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenotto.
RussiasGazpromsells80percentofitsgastoEurope.Soin2010,RussiaputitsweightbehindanalternativeIran-Iraq-Syriapipeline
thatwouldpumpIraniangasfromthesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Theprojectwould
allowMoscowtocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,theCaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.
Uptothispoint,USpolicytowardAssadhadbeenambivalent.StateDepartmentcablesobtainedbyWikileaksrevealthatUSpolicyhad
waveredbetweenfinancingSyrianoppositiongroupstofacilitateregimechange,andusingthethreatofregimechangetoinduce
behaviourreform.
ObamaspreferenceforthelatterresultedinUSofficials,includingJohnKerry,shamelesslycourtingAssadinthehopesofpryinghim
awayfromIran,openinguptheSyrianeconomytoUSinvestors,andaligningtheregimewithUS-Israeliregionaldesigns.
EvenwhentheArabSpringprotestsresultedinAssadssecurityforcesbrutalisingpeacefulciviliandemonstratorsinthestreets,both
KerryandthenSecretaryofStateHillaryClintoninsistedthathewasareformer-whichhetookasagreenlighttorespondtofurther
protestswithmassacres.
TheScramblefortheMediterranean
TheninJuly,a$10billionIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealwasannounced,andapreliminaryagreementdulysigned.
Bylate2011,theUS,UK,FranceandIsraelwererampingupcovertassistancetorebelfactionsinSyriatoelicitthecollapseofAssads
regimefromwithin.
TheUnitedStatessupportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversifyEuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia,
explainedOrensteininForeignAffairs.
RussiamovedquicklytosupportthepartiesinsigningaMemorandumofUnderstanding(MoU)inJuly2012.Bytheendof2013,Russia
hadsignedanoffshoregasdealwithSyriatoexploretheeasternMediterranean,estimatedtocontainatotalofabout122trillioncubicfeet
ofrecoverablenaturalgas.
ThemovewasseenasunhelpfulbytheUS,whichhasworkedwithIsrael,Egypt,Turkey,CyprusandLebanontodevelopanIsraeli-
dominatedregionalgasexportarchitecturecapableofsupplyingeasternMediterraneangastoEurope.
NaturalgasdiscoveriesintheeasternMediterraneanhavetheabilitytoundermineRussiasdominantpositionasanaturalgassupplier
toWesternEurope,wroteSimonHenderson,directoroftheWashingtonInstitutesGulfandEnergyPolicyProgramme.
Attrition
AsRussiasenergycrisisdeepens,Putinsdesperationoverthegasquestioniscompoundedbyfearsoverthegeopoliticalconsequences
ofAssadsdownfall.
InOctoberlastyear,formerdirectorforChinapolicyattheUSDepartmentofDefence,Dr.ChristinaLin,warnedprescientlythattheif
theUS-ledcoalitionsstrategyagainsttheIslamicState(IS)swungtoofartowardtopplingAssad,itcouldcrossaredlinethatcould
triggerRussianmilitaryescalation.
FromtheRussianperspective,replacingAssadwithanIslamistregimewillalsofurtherexportterrorandradicaliseMuslimsin
Chechnya,wroteLin.RussiaalsowantstoprotectitsnavalportinTartus,andhasalreadydemonstratedthroughitsactioninUkraineit
wouldnothesitatetousemilitaryforcetodefenditscoreinterests.
ShenotedthatTurkeyinparticularhasbeenmoreconcernedwithtopplingAssadthanfightingIS.
Thisisnotsurprisinggiventhat,asaseniorWesternofficialfamiliarwithalargecacheofintelligenceobtainedthissummertoldthe
Guardian,directdealingsbetweenTurkishofficialsandrankingISISmemberswasnowundeniable.
ThesameofficialalsoconfirmedthatTurkeyhasbeensupportingotherjihadistgroups,includingAhraral-ShamandJabhatal-Nusra,al-
QaedasaffiliateinSyria.Thedistinctionstheydraw[withotheroppositiongroups]arethinindeed,saidtheofficial.Thereisnodoubt
atallthattheymilitarilycooperatewithboth.
Thathasn'tstoppedtheUSfromrunningitsrebeltrainingandsupplyprogrammethroughTurkey.
IftheUScontinuestoallowTurkeytochangethemissionofdegradingISISintooneofregimechangeinSyria,saidLinexactlyayear
beforeRussiasmilitaryintervention,thiswouldpitthecoalitionagainsttheotherwisecooperativeBeijing-Moscow-TehranaxisonISIS.
ButPutinisseverelydeludedifhethinksmilitarysolutionsaretheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicand
geopoliticalcrisesRussiaisfacing.
In1979,asrevealedbythenNationalSecurityAdviserZbigniewBrzezinski,theUShadcovertlysupportedmujahideenactivitysixmonths
beforetheRussiansinvadedAfghanistan.Theidea,hesaid,wastodrawthemintotheAfghantrap,acceleratingSovietcollapse.
Itworked.
Atthisrate,itsgoingtoworkagaininSyria.
-NafeezAhmedPhDisaninvestigativejournalist,internationalsecurityscholarandbestsellingauthorwhotrackswhathecallsthe
'crisisofcivilization.'HeisawinneroftheProjectCensoredAwardforOutstandingInvestigativeJournalismforhisGuardianreporting
ontheintersectionofglobalecological,energyandeconomiccriseswithregionalgeopoliticsandconflicts.HehasalsowrittenforThe
Independent,SydneyMorningHerald,TheAge,TheScotsman,ForeignPolicy,TheAtlantic,Quartz,Prospect,NewStatesman,LeMonde
diplomatique,NewInternationalist.Hisworkontherootcausesandcovertoperationslinkedtointernationalterrorismofficially
contributedtothe9/11Commissionandthe7/7CoronersInquest.
TheviewsexpressedinthisarticlebelongtotheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheeditorialpolicyofMiddleEastEye.
Subject:Putin'sGasAttack>IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
wderzko@pathcom.com
Putin'sGasAttack
IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
ByMitchellA.OrensteinandGeorgeRomer
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2015-10-14/putins-gas-attack
AbouttheAuthor:
MITCHELLA.ORENSTEINisaProfessorofCentralandEastEuropeanpoliticsintheSlavicDepartmentatUniversityof
Pennsylvania.GEORGEROMERisaU.S.NavyveteranandundergraduatestudentattheUniversityofPennsylvania.
RussiasbelligerenceinSyriahasreneweddebatesaboutRussianmotives.JamesNixey,headof
theRussiaandEurasiaProgramatChathamHouse,andXeniaWickett,projectdirectorforthe
UnitedStatesatChathamHouse,probablyputitbestintheirrecentarticle:Why,logically,
wouldacountrybucklingunderthestrainofacrippledeconomyandwhichhasitselfbeenarecent
victimofextremistterror,openupasecondfrontofmilitaryoperationsfarawayfromits
traditionaltheatreofmilitaryengagementintheformerSovietspace?Andwhatelse,otherthan
ulteriormotivestothoseofficiallystated,couldexplainRussiastargetingofSyrian
groupingsotherthanISISstrongholds?
Oneanswerisnaturalgas.Specifically,mostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-
exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompetingpipelineprojectsthatseektocross
SyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope.Inshort,asIranemergesfrom
internationalsanctionsanditsmassivegasreservesbecomeavailableforexport,Syriasgaswar
isheatingup.
POWERLINES
In1989,QatarandIranbegantodeveloptheSouthPars/NorthDomefield,whichisburied3,000
metersbelowthefloorofthePersianGulf.With51trillioncubicmetersofgasand50billion
cubicmetersofliquidcondensates,itisthelargestnaturalgasfieldintheworld.Approximately
one-thirdofitsricheslieinIranianwatersandtwo-thirdsinQatariones.
Sincethediscovery,Qatarhasinvestedheavilyinliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)plantsandterminals
thatenableittoshipitsgasaroundtheworldintankers.Yetliquefactionandshippingincrease
totalcostsand,particularlyasgaspriceshaveslipped,Qatarigashasremainedeasilyundercutin
EuropeanmarketsbycheaperpipelinegasfromRussiaandelsewhere.Andso,in2009,Qatar
proposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
Turkey,aninvestmentofbillionsofdollarsupfrontthatwouldreducetransportationcostsoverthe
longterm.However,SyrianPresidentBasharalAssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdid
notwanttoseeitspositioninEuropeangasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenot
to.
.
Atthesametime,Iran,sensinganopportunity,andlackingexportinfrastructureforitsownmassive
gasreserves,proposedanalternativeIran-Iraq-SyriapipelinethatwouldpumpIraniangasfrom
thesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Moscow
apparentlyblessedthisproject,possiblybelievingthatRussiawouldhaveaneasiertimedealing
withIran(unlikeQatar,nothometoaU.S.base)tocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,the
CaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.TheannouncementoftheIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealcame
in2011.ThepartiessignedthedocumentsinJuly2012.Constructionwasslatedtobefinishedin
2016,buttheArabSpringandensuingchaosinSyriainterfered.
ENTERRUSSIA
Sincethestartofthefighting,IranhasprovidedextensivesupporttotheAssadgovernment.By
someaccounts,itismoreorlessrunningtheSyrianarmy,aswellassupplyingitwithweaponsand
noweventroopsfromitsRevolutionaryGuardandQudsforces.Tehranhasnumerousreasonsfor
supportingAssadDamascushasbeenareliableallyandchannelforsendingarmstoHezbollah
andSyriasstatusasapotentialtransitrouteforIransvastnaturalgasreservessurelyfigures
in.
Qatar,meanwhile,beganworkingtoousttheAssadregimebyfundingrebelgroupstothetuneofan
estimated$3billionbetween2011and2013.Itevenoffereda$50,000rewardtodefectorsfrom
theSyrianregimeandtheirfamiliesandhostsabasefromwhichtheCIAhastrainedSyrian
rebels.QatarsrelationswithSyriahadpreviouslybeencordialthatis,untilQatarsAl-Jazeera
playedavitalroleinsupportingtheArabSpringrevoltsandgaveavoicetotheprotestsinSyria.
QataralsosoughttoisolateAssaddiplomaticallybyhandingSyriasseatintheArabLeaguetothe
opposition.Indoingso,QatarendangereditspreviouslycloserelationswithIran.
TheRussianinterventionaddsanewlayer.RussiawouldratherseetheIranIraqSyriapipeline
builtornopipelineatall,sothatitcanbestcontrolgassuppliestoEurope,itsmainmarket.For
Qatar,SyriarepresentsanopportunitytotransportitsgastomarketcheaplyorblockIranfrom
dominatingpipelineexportsfromajointly-ownedfield.
TheUnitedStates,meanwhile,supportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversify
EuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia.
AndTurkey,likewise,believesthattheQataripipelinewouldhelpitdiversifyitsowngassupplies
awayfromRussianenergyandfurtheritsambitionstobeagastransithubbetweenAsiaand
Europe.Russianstatemediahas,inrecentdays,remindedTurkeythatitisunlikelytomanage
withoutRussiangasandthatTurkeysothermajorsupplier,Iran,isalignedwithRussiainSyria.
Inotherwords,anypoliticalsettlementoftheSyriacrisismustalsoreconcilecompetinggas
interests.Onewaytodothiswouldbetoenablebothpipelinestobebuilt,sothatQatariand
Iraniangascanbebroughttomarketcheaply.Thatwouldresolveatleastonedriveroftheconflict.
Infact,itwouldservetheinterestsofallactorsreasonablywell,exceptforRussia.
Indeed,thedualpipelineswouldbeadisasterfortheKremlin.Russiahasavitalinterestin
controllinggassuppliestoEurope,whereGazpromsells80percentofitsgas.TheEuropeanUnion
hassucceededindiversifyingsuppliesinrecentyears(inpartthroughLNGimports)andseeksto
developadditionalpipelinesfromCentralAsiaandtheMiddleEasttofurtherreduceitsreliance
onRussiangas.NewpipelinesfromQatarandIrancouldtakeawaymarketsharefromRussia,but
moreimportantlyreducepricesbelowwhattheRussianstatebudgetneedstosurvive.
Russiahasshownawillingnesstogotowaroversuchissuesbefore.ItfoughtthewarinGeorgia
tofrustrateWesternplanstoexportgasfromtheCaspianSearegiontotheWestviaAzerbaijanand
GeorgiatoTurkey.
ItwenttowarinUkraineinordertocontrolavitaltransitstatebetweenRussiaandEurope.
AnditisreasonabletoexpectthatRussiawillgodownfightingtopreventaQataripipelinefrom
crossingSyriaonitswaytoEuropeandtomakeIranianexportsreliantonRussiansupport.Italso
explainswhyRussiahaschosentotargetQatari-andSaudi-fundedrebelgroupsinSyriainits
bombingcampaign,andwhyRussiasinvolvementhasonlybolsteredtheGulfStatesresolve.
Whensuchenergyconsiderationsaretakenintoaccount,itseemsclearthatsurrenderingSyriato
IranianandRussianinterests,assomehaverecommendedinrecentweeks,wouldbeadisaster.
ButnegotiatingasolutionwillbeverydifficultwithRussiawhenU.S.andRussianinterestsareso
sharplyopposed.TheUnitedStatesmuststandfirmandusethecrisistobegintomendrelations
withTurkey,SaudiArabia,andothertraditionalalliesintheMiddleEast,withwhichtieshave
beenfrayedbythetumultoftheArabSpring.Turkey,atthecrossroadsofAsiaandEurope,stands
thebestchanceofplayinganhonestbrokerroleingastransitandensuring,withU.S.support,that
allgassuppliersintheMiddleEasthavetheabilitytofreelyexportandtransporttheirvaluable
commodity.
Senttime: 10/30/201512:30:26PM
FW:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU
Subject:
&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,October30,201511:00AM
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHON
THEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting
...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&
FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"
(quirkybutinteresting(acounter)IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
Subject:U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
wderzko@pathcom.com
U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
30.10.2015|12:30
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html\
Russiaisnolongerasuperpowerasitsdeterioratingeconomyisranked"somewherebehindSpain,"andMoscow'sinfluenceis
limitedcomparedtotheerstwhileSovietUnion,WhiteHousePressSecretaryJoshEarnesttoldreportersonThursday,
accordingtoNDTV.
REUTERS
"Russiaisnolongerasuperpower.ObservedinthelastcoupleofweeksthattheconditionofRussia'seconomyisweakandfurther
deteriorating,"Earnestsaid,thereportreads.
"Theyarenowthe15th-largesteconomyintheworld,andtheyranksomewherebehindSpain,"hesaid.
EarnestsaidRussiadoesnothavethekindofinfluencethattheSovietUniononcedidanditdoesnothavethekindofeconomicpower
thattheSovietUniononcewasabletoflex.
"Theireconomyisgettingworse,andRussiaisisolatedinasignificantway.NotjustfromcountriesinEurope,but,astheygetfurther
engagedinasectarianquagmireinsideofSyria,they'refindingthattheonlyfriendsthattheyhavetheretofightinadifficultfightwith
themisaflounderingSyriangovernmentandtheIranianregime,"hesaid.
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html
Subject:ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
wderzko@pathcom.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>
1.ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia

ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
2015-09-04
ClimatechangeiscontributingtoanincreasingnumberofnaturaldisastersandtechnologicalincidentsinnorthernRussia.
AccordingtotheFOIreportClimatechangeandnaturaldisasters:AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers,publishedin
English,theweakRussianeconomyandascepticalapproachtoclimatechangearehinderingtheimplementationofthe
measuresneeded.
Climatechangeandnaturaldisasters.AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers.
Around60percentofRussiaslandmassiscoveredbypermafrost.Butthatareaisreducinginstepwitharisingglobalmeantemperature.
Theincreasedthawingofpermafrostcreatesseriousproblems,typicallyintheformofnaturaldisastersinvolvingfloodsandforestfiresinthe
summerof2010,forexample,Russiaexperiencedaprolongedperiodofhightemperaturesduringwhichtherewereseventhousandforestfire
outbreaks.Butwhenthepermafrostthaws,thegroundtendstosettlewithadverseconsequencesforhouses,roadsandotherinfrastructure
originallydesignedtobebuiltonpermanentlyfrozenground.Inaddition,northernRussiadependssubstantiallyoniceroadsforheavytransport
duringawinterseasonthatisbecomingsteadilyshorter.
Variousestimateshavebeenmadethatsuggestthatclimatechangeonaveragecausesthelossofthousandsofliveseveryyearandentails
substantialcostsforthestrugglingeconomy,saysRogerRoffey,theFOIscientistwhohaspreparedthereport.
TheincreasesintemperaturearealsocausinglargeareasoftheArctictoremainicefreeduringpartsoftheyear.Accordingtothisreportthis
couldleadtotensionintheareabecause,amongotherthings,Russiawillwishtosafeguarditsnewoilextractionactivitieswhileother
countriesarealsoincreasingtheirpresenceintheareaandmakinggreateruseoftheNortheastPassageforcommercialshipping.Therisein
temperaturecouldalsomeanthatlargeamountsofmethanegaswillbereleasedfrommarshyareas,sohasteningtheprocessofglobal
warming.
AccordingtothereportthebigproblemisthatRussianeitherseemstohavethewill,ortoprioritisethenecessaryresources,todealwiththe
changesthataretakingplace.
Amongotherthingsthereseemstobeageneralperceptionthatawarmerclimatewillbeadvantageous,forexampleinmakingnewareas
availableforcropcultivation.Butresearchshowsthat,onthecontrary,prolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingtheeffectofreducing
theleveloffoodproduction.Wealsoseethatwhentherearefloodingeventsthatarenotproperlydealtwith,PresidentPutintendstomakean
appearanceandcastigatesomelocalleadersinsteadofensuringthatthestaterecognisesitsresponsibilityfordevisingandfundinga
sustainablesolution,saysRogerRoffey.
ThereportnotesthatthisisnothingnewforRussiasscientificcommunity.ButwhentheRussianstatedecidesinsteadtoinvestinareassuch
asdefence,criticalvoicesareunderstandablyraisedinprotest.
Whentheauthoritiesfailtogiveanyprioritytoclimateandenvironmentalissues,thoseworkinginthesefieldsarerenderedrelatively
powerless.Thescientificcommunityisofcoursedependentonfundingfromtheauthoritiessotheyhavetobecarefulintheircriticismeven
thoughtheydopublishreportsthatdescribethesituationasitis,saysRogerRoffey.
ReadmoreaboutTheprojectonRussianForeign,DefenceandSecurityPolicy(RUFS)
Subject:sSiberiaforestsburnPutindismissesclimatechange>RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkeptical
Putin
wderzko@pathcom.com
RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkepticalPutin
ByREUTERSOCT.29,2015,7:54A.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWWildfirescrackledacrossSiberiathissummer,turningskiesochreandsendingupenoughsmokefrom
burningpinestoblotoutsatelliteviewsofthe400-mile-longLakeBaikal.
Tomanyclimatescientists,theworseningfiresareaconsequenceofSiberiagettinghotter,thecarbonunleashedfromitsburning
forestsandtundraonlyaddingtoman-madefossilfuelemissions.Siberia'swildfireseasonhaslengthenedinrecentyearsandthe
2015blazeswereamongthebiggestyet,cakingthelake,the"PearlofSiberia",inashandscorchingthesurroundingpermafrost.
ButtheRussianpublicheardlittlementionofclimatechange,becausemediacoverageacrossstate-controlledtelevisionstations
andprintmediaallbutignoredit.OnnationalTV,thevillainswerelocalswhoroutinelybutcarelesslyburnofftallgrassesevery
year,andthesometimesincompetentcrewsstrugglingtoputthefiresout.
WhileWesternmediahaveexaminedtheroleofrisingtemperaturesanddroughtinthisyear'srecordwildfiresinNorthAmerica,
Russianmediacontinuetopaylittleattentiontoanissuethatanimatessomuchoftheworld.
Theindifferencereflectswidespreadpublicdoubtthathumanactivitiesplayasignificantroleinglobalwarming,atonesetby
PresidentVladimirPutin,whohasofferedonlyvagueandmodestpledgesofemissionscutsaheadofDecember'sU.N.climate
summitinParis.
Russia'sofficialviewappearstohavechangedlittlesince2003,whenPutintoldaninternationalclimateconferencethatwarmer
temperatureswouldmeanRussians"spendlessonfurcoats"while"agriculturalspecialistssayourgrainproductionwillincrease,
andthankGodforthat".
Thepresidentbelievesthat"thereisnoglobalwarming,thatthisisafraudtorestraintheindustrialdevelopmentofseveralcountries
includingRussia,"saysStanislavBelkovsky,apoliticalanalystandcriticofPutin."Thatiswhythissubjectisnottopicalforthe
majorityoftheRussianmassmediaandsocietyingeneral."
AndwithRussianmediafocusedontheeconomicsqueezeathomeandeventsinUkraineandSyriaabroad,theabsenceofa
robustmediaconversationonclimatechangemeanshisscepticismgoeslargelyunchallenged.
"Itisdifficulttospendeditorialresourcesonthingsthatarenowalowpriorityinthemidstoftheeconomiccrisis,"saysGalina
Timchenko,formereditor-in-chiefofthesuccessfulnewssiteLenta.ru.TimchenkonowrunsMeduza,apopularsitethatcovers
Russiannewsbutdevoteslittlespacetoclimateissues.
"Unfortunatelyclimatechangeisnotveryinterestingtothepublic,"shesays.
"EXTENSIVEWORK"
Putin'sscepticismdatesfromtheearly2000s,whenhisstaff"didvery,veryextensiveworktryingtounderstandallsidesofthe
climatedebate",saidAndreyIllarionov,Putin'ssenioreconomicadviseratthetimeandnowaseniorfellowattheCatoInstitutein
Washington.
"Wefoundthat,whileclimatechangedoesexist,itiscyclical,andtheanthropogenicroleisverylimited,"hesaid."Itbecameclear
thattheclimateisacomplicatedsystemandthat,sofar,theevidencepresentedfortheneedto'fight'globalwarmingwasrather
unfounded."
Thatopinionendures.DuringatriptotheArcticin2010,Putinacknowledgedthat"theclimateischanging",butrestatedhisdoubt
thathumanactivitywasthecause.
Histripwastoinspecttheretreatofthepolaricecap,somethingthatpromisestomaketheArcticoceanandnorthernSiberia
moreaccessibletoexplorationandproductionoftheoilthatRussia,theworld'sleadingproducer,dependsonforexportearnings.
MariannaPoberezhskaya,authoroftheacademicwork"CommunicatingClimateChangeinRussia",characterizedmedia
coverageinRussiaas"climatesilence",brokenonlybytheairingofofficialdoubtsaboutanyhumanimpactonglobal
temperatures.
"RussianmassmediarepeatthesamemistakethatWesternjournalistsusedtomake:thefalsebalance,wheretheideaofthe
humaneffectonclimatechangeispresentedalongwithskeptics'pointofview,"shesaid.
Russianschoolteachingalsoappearstolagbehindtherapidlyexpandingscienceonclimatechange.
Randomlysampledgeographytextbooksmakenomentionofhumanimpactontheclimate,andonecollege-leveltextstatesthat
climatechangesarecausedmainlybysolaractivity,themovementoftheplanet'scrustandvolcanoes.
"Iseewhattheyhaveabroadontheproblemofclimatechange,"saysAsyaKorolkova,15,whostudieshighschoolbiologyin
Moscow."Peopletheretalkaboutitalotyoucanfeelit'saseriousproblem.Wedon'thavethathere."
DECREASEISANINCREASE
EnvironmentalistssaythatattitudeisalsoreflectedinRussia'spledgeforDecember'sglobalsummit,onethatreceivedlittlemedia
coverageathome.
Insuggestingareductioninitsemissionsto"70to75percent"of1990levelsby2030,Moscowisactuallyproposinganincrease
from2012levels.Russianemissionsarecurrentlyfarbelowthelevelsproducedbyobsolescentex-Sovietsmokestackindustriesin
1990.
Eventhatofferishedged.RussiahassaidreachingthetargetwillrequiregenerousaccountingfortheroleRussia'sforestsplayin
removingcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere.
SomeobserversdoseesignsofaslightsofteninginMoscow'spositioninthefaceofaseriesofweatherdisasters,fromdrought
andsearingsummerfiresin2010toragingfloodsinSochiontheBlackSealastyear.
NaturalresourcesministerSergeiDonskoyhassaidextremeweathercouldcutRussia'seconomicoutputby1-2percentevery
yearforthenext15years,addingthat"thishastobetakenintoaccountwhendeterminingthepolicyandmeasuresinthefieldof
adaptationtoclimatechange".
ThebusinessnewspaperKommersant,ownedbywealthybusinessmanAlisherUsmanov,is,likesomeotherRussianmedia,taking
someinterestinthoseeconomicconsequences,thoughitalsodidnotdiscussthepossibilitythatclimatechangemighthave
contributedtotheSiberianfires.
"Iwriteaboutwhatneedstobedonetochangeproductionandconsumptionpractices-thehumaneffectontheclimateisagiven
forus,"saidKommersantjournalistAlexeyShapovalov.
Butforallthat,thereisnosignofpublicpressureonauthoritiestodomore,letaloneofPutinrelaxingRussia'shardlineaheadof
theParistalks.
"Thissubjecthasfailedtobecomeapriority,"saysKonstantinSimonov,thefounderofanon-governmentaloilandgasresearch
fundwhooftenappearsonRussianmedia.
"Russia'sattitudewillmostlikelybesomethinglikethis:Guys,youputeconomicpressureonus,introducedsanctions.Doyou
expectustobeholierthanthePopeabouttheissueyou'repushingthroughandtakealoadofresponsibilities?"
Theanswer,hesays,willbe:"No."
Subject:TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilisePutin>Facedwithoverlappingclimate,economic,
foodandenergycrises,Russiaistrulyonthebrink...It'stheEnergyStu!*d
wderzko@pathcom.com
TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilise
Putin
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/us-russia-gas-pipeline-war-syria-could-destabilise-putin-103505758
NafeezAhmed
Friday30October201512:23UTC
Militarysolutionsarenottheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicandgeopoliticalcrisesfacingRussia
Forthelastfewyears,theSaudikingdomsinsistenceonpumpingoilathighcapacityhasdramaticallydepressedoilprices.Theresult
hasunderminedSaudismajoroilrivalsinOPEClikeIranandVenezuela.
IthasalsohitRussia,hard.
RatingagencyStandard&PoorforecaststhatRussiasbudgetdeficitissettoswellto4.4percentofGDPthisyear.Russiasown
financeministryconcedesthatifexpenditurescontinueatthisrate,withinsixteenmonthsbyaroundtheendofnextyearitsoil
reservefundswillbeexhausted.
Meanwhile,overthelastyearrealincomeshavedroppedby9.8percent,andfoodpriceshavespikedby17percent,heighteningtherisk
ofcivilunrest.
Systemfailure
Rumblingalongbeneaththesurfaceofsuchfinancialwoesaredeepersystemicissues.
AreportfromtheSwedishDefenceResearchAgencynotesthatprolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingthe
effectofreducingtheleveloffoodproduction.
MostofRussiaswheatimportscomefromKazakhstan,whereclimatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbatedroughts.These
impactswouldmakefarmingharderandfoodmoreexpensive,observeDr.MarinaSharminaandDr.ChristopherJonesofthe
TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch.
Russiasloomingenergycrisisistheotherelephantintheroom.In2013,HSBCforecastedthatRussiawouldhitpeakoilbetween2018
and2019,experiencingabriefplateaubeforedecliningby30percentfrom2020to2025.
Thatyear,FitchRatingscametoprettymuchthesameconclusion.Andlastyear,LeonidFedun,vice-presidentofRussiassecondlargest
oilproducer,Lukoil,predictedthattheproductioncouldpeakearlierduetofallingoilpricesandUS-EUsanctions.
Facedwithoverlappingeconomic,foodandenergycrises,Russiaiswellandtrulyonthebrink.
Warisaracket
RussiasinterventioninSyriaisVladimirPutinsgeopoliticaltrumpcard,headingofftheimminentdefeatofSyrianpresidentBashiral-
AssadsregimeundermultipleWestern-backedrebelforces.
HisgoalwasexplainedthisOctoberinForeignAffairs,thedistinguishedjournalofWashingtonDCsCouncilonForeignRelations.
MostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompeting
pipelineprojectsthatseektocrossSyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope,wroteProfessorMitchell
OrensteinoftheDavisCenterforRussianandEurasianStudiesatHarvardUniversity.
IhadreportedonthecompetinggaspipelineplansfortheGuardianin2013.Twoyearslater,ForeignAffairsisfinallycatchingup.
AsOrensteinexplained,in2009,QatarproposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
TurkeyHowever,SyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdidnotwanttoseeitspositioninEuropean
gasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenotto.
RussiasGazpromsells80percentofitsgastoEurope.Soin2010,RussiaputitsweightbehindanalternativeIran-Iraq-Syriapipeline
thatwouldpumpIraniangasfromthesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Theprojectwould
allowMoscowtocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,theCaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.
Uptothispoint,USpolicytowardAssadhadbeenambivalent.StateDepartmentcablesobtainedbyWikileaksrevealthatUSpolicyhad
waveredbetweenfinancingSyrianoppositiongroupstofacilitateregimechange,andusingthethreatofregimechangetoinduce
behaviourreform.
ObamaspreferenceforthelatterresultedinUSofficials,includingJohnKerry,shamelesslycourtingAssadinthehopesofpryinghim
awayfromIran,openinguptheSyrianeconomytoUSinvestors,andaligningtheregimewithUS-Israeliregionaldesigns.
EvenwhentheArabSpringprotestsresultedinAssadssecurityforcesbrutalisingpeacefulciviliandemonstratorsinthestreets,both
KerryandthenSecretaryofStateHillaryClintoninsistedthathewasareformer-whichhetookasagreenlighttorespondtofurther
protestswithmassacres.
TheScramblefortheMediterranean
TheninJuly,a$10billionIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealwasannounced,andapreliminaryagreementdulysigned.
Bylate2011,theUS,UK,FranceandIsraelwererampingupcovertassistancetorebelfactionsinSyriatoelicitthecollapseofAssads
regimefromwithin.
TheUnitedStatessupportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversifyEuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia,
explainedOrensteininForeignAffairs.
RussiamovedquicklytosupportthepartiesinsigningaMemorandumofUnderstanding(MoU)inJuly2012.Bytheendof2013,Russia
hadsignedanoffshoregasdealwithSyriatoexploretheeasternMediterranean,estimatedtocontainatotalofabout122trillioncubicfeet
ofrecoverablenaturalgas.
ThemovewasseenasunhelpfulbytheUS,whichhasworkedwithIsrael,Egypt,Turkey,CyprusandLebanontodevelopanIsraeli-
dominatedregionalgasexportarchitecturecapableofsupplyingeasternMediterraneangastoEurope.
NaturalgasdiscoveriesintheeasternMediterraneanhavetheabilitytoundermineRussiasdominantpositionasanaturalgassupplier
toWesternEurope,wroteSimonHenderson,directoroftheWashingtonInstitutesGulfandEnergyPolicyProgramme.
Attrition
AsRussiasenergycrisisdeepens,Putinsdesperationoverthegasquestioniscompoundedbyfearsoverthegeopoliticalconsequences
ofAssadsdownfall.
InOctoberlastyear,formerdirectorforChinapolicyattheUSDepartmentofDefence,Dr.ChristinaLin,warnedprescientlythattheif
theUS-ledcoalitionsstrategyagainsttheIslamicState(IS)swungtoofartowardtopplingAssad,itcouldcrossaredlinethatcould
triggerRussianmilitaryescalation.
FromtheRussianperspective,replacingAssadwithanIslamistregimewillalsofurtherexportterrorandradicaliseMuslimsin
Chechnya,wroteLin.RussiaalsowantstoprotectitsnavalportinTartus,andhasalreadydemonstratedthroughitsactioninUkraineit
wouldnothesitatetousemilitaryforcetodefenditscoreinterests.
ShenotedthatTurkeyinparticularhasbeenmoreconcernedwithtopplingAssadthanfightingIS.
Thisisnotsurprisinggiventhat,asaseniorWesternofficialfamiliarwithalargecacheofintelligenceobtainedthissummertoldthe
Guardian,directdealingsbetweenTurkishofficialsandrankingISISmemberswasnowundeniable.
ThesameofficialalsoconfirmedthatTurkeyhasbeensupportingotherjihadistgroups,includingAhraral-ShamandJabhatal-Nusra,al-
QaedasaffiliateinSyria.Thedistinctionstheydraw[withotheroppositiongroups]arethinindeed,saidtheofficial.Thereisnodoubt
atallthattheymilitarilycooperatewithboth.
Thathasn'tstoppedtheUSfromrunningitsrebeltrainingandsupplyprogrammethroughTurkey.
IftheUScontinuestoallowTurkeytochangethemissionofdegradingISISintooneofregimechangeinSyria,saidLinexactlyayear
beforeRussiasmilitaryintervention,thiswouldpitthecoalitionagainsttheotherwisecooperativeBeijing-Moscow-TehranaxisonISIS.
ButPutinisseverelydeludedifhethinksmilitarysolutionsaretheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicand
geopoliticalcrisesRussiaisfacing.
In1979,asrevealedbythenNationalSecurityAdviserZbigniewBrzezinski,theUShadcovertlysupportedmujahideenactivitysixmonths
beforetheRussiansinvadedAfghanistan.Theidea,hesaid,wastodrawthemintotheAfghantrap,acceleratingSovietcollapse.
Itworked.
Atthisrate,itsgoingtoworkagaininSyria.
-NafeezAhmedPhDisaninvestigativejournalist,internationalsecurityscholarandbestsellingauthorwhotrackswhathecallsthe
'crisisofcivilization.'HeisawinneroftheProjectCensoredAwardforOutstandingInvestigativeJournalismforhisGuardianreporting
ontheintersectionofglobalecological,energyandeconomiccriseswithregionalgeopoliticsandconflicts.HehasalsowrittenforThe
Independent,SydneyMorningHerald,TheAge,TheScotsman,ForeignPolicy,TheAtlantic,Quartz,Prospect,NewStatesman,LeMonde
diplomatique,NewInternationalist.Hisworkontherootcausesandcovertoperationslinkedtointernationalterrorismofficially
contributedtothe9/11Commissionandthe7/7CoronersInquest.
TheviewsexpressedinthisarticlebelongtotheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheeditorialpolicyofMiddleEastEye.
Subject:Putin'sGasAttack>IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
wderzko@pathcom.com
Putin'sGasAttack
IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
ByMitchellA.OrensteinandGeorgeRomer
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2015-10-14/putins-gas-attack
AbouttheAuthor:
MITCHELLA.ORENSTEINisaProfessorofCentralandEastEuropeanpoliticsintheSlavicDepartmentatUniversityof
Pennsylvania.GEORGEROMERisaU.S.NavyveteranandundergraduatestudentattheUniversityofPennsylvania.
RussiasbelligerenceinSyriahasreneweddebatesaboutRussianmotives.JamesNixey,headof
theRussiaandEurasiaProgramatChathamHouse,andXeniaWickett,projectdirectorforthe
UnitedStatesatChathamHouse,probablyputitbestintheirrecentarticle:Why,logically,
wouldacountrybucklingunderthestrainofacrippledeconomyandwhichhasitselfbeenarecent
victimofextremistterror,openupasecondfrontofmilitaryoperationsfarawayfromits
traditionaltheatreofmilitaryengagementintheformerSovietspace?Andwhatelse,otherthan
ulteriormotivestothoseofficiallystated,couldexplainRussiastargetingofSyrian
groupingsotherthanISISstrongholds?
Oneanswerisnaturalgas.Specifically,mostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-
exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompetingpipelineprojectsthatseektocross
SyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope.Inshort,asIranemergesfrom
internationalsanctionsanditsmassivegasreservesbecomeavailableforexport,Syriasgaswar
isheatingup.
POWERLINES
In1989,QatarandIranbegantodeveloptheSouthPars/NorthDomefield,whichisburied3,000
metersbelowthefloorofthePersianGulf.With51trillioncubicmetersofgasand50billion
cubicmetersofliquidcondensates,itisthelargestnaturalgasfieldintheworld.Approximately
one-thirdofitsricheslieinIranianwatersandtwo-thirdsinQatariones.
Sincethediscovery,Qatarhasinvestedheavilyinliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)plantsandterminals
thatenableittoshipitsgasaroundtheworldintankers.Yetliquefactionandshippingincrease
totalcostsand,particularlyasgaspriceshaveslipped,Qatarigashasremainedeasilyundercutin
EuropeanmarketsbycheaperpipelinegasfromRussiaandelsewhere.Andso,in2009,Qatar
proposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
Turkey,aninvestmentofbillionsofdollarsupfrontthatwouldreducetransportationcostsoverthe
longterm.However,SyrianPresidentBasharalAssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdid
notwanttoseeitspositioninEuropeangasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenot
to.
.
Atthesametime,Iran,sensinganopportunity,andlackingexportinfrastructureforitsownmassive
gasreserves,proposedanalternativeIran-Iraq-SyriapipelinethatwouldpumpIraniangasfrom
thesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Moscow
apparentlyblessedthisproject,possiblybelievingthatRussiawouldhaveaneasiertimedealing
withIran(unlikeQatar,nothometoaU.S.base)tocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,the
CaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.TheannouncementoftheIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealcame
in2011.ThepartiessignedthedocumentsinJuly2012.Constructionwasslatedtobefinishedin
2016,buttheArabSpringandensuingchaosinSyriainterfered.
ENTERRUSSIA
Sincethestartofthefighting,IranhasprovidedextensivesupporttotheAssadgovernment.By
someaccounts,itismoreorlessrunningtheSyrianarmy,aswellassupplyingitwithweaponsand
noweventroopsfromitsRevolutionaryGuardandQudsforces.Tehranhasnumerousreasonsfor
supportingAssadDamascushasbeenareliableallyandchannelforsendingarmstoHezbollah
andSyriasstatusasapotentialtransitrouteforIransvastnaturalgasreservessurelyfigures
in.
Qatar,meanwhile,beganworkingtoousttheAssadregimebyfundingrebelgroupstothetuneofan
estimated$3billionbetween2011and2013.Itevenoffereda$50,000rewardtodefectorsfrom
theSyrianregimeandtheirfamiliesandhostsabasefromwhichtheCIAhastrainedSyrian
rebels.QatarsrelationswithSyriahadpreviouslybeencordialthatis,untilQatarsAl-Jazeera
playedavitalroleinsupportingtheArabSpringrevoltsandgaveavoicetotheprotestsinSyria.
QataralsosoughttoisolateAssaddiplomaticallybyhandingSyriasseatintheArabLeaguetothe
opposition.Indoingso,QatarendangereditspreviouslycloserelationswithIran.
TheRussianinterventionaddsanewlayer.RussiawouldratherseetheIranIraqSyriapipeline
builtornopipelineatall,sothatitcanbestcontrolgassuppliestoEurope,itsmainmarket.For
Qatar,SyriarepresentsanopportunitytotransportitsgastomarketcheaplyorblockIranfrom
dominatingpipelineexportsfromajointly-ownedfield.
TheUnitedStates,meanwhile,supportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversify
EuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia.
AndTurkey,likewise,believesthattheQataripipelinewouldhelpitdiversifyitsowngassupplies
awayfromRussianenergyandfurtheritsambitionstobeagastransithubbetweenAsiaand
Europe.Russianstatemediahas,inrecentdays,remindedTurkeythatitisunlikelytomanage
withoutRussiangasandthatTurkeysothermajorsupplier,Iran,isalignedwithRussiainSyria.
Inotherwords,anypoliticalsettlementoftheSyriacrisismustalsoreconcilecompetinggas
interests.Onewaytodothiswouldbetoenablebothpipelinestobebuilt,sothatQatariand
Iraniangascanbebroughttomarketcheaply.Thatwouldresolveatleastonedriveroftheconflict.
Infact,itwouldservetheinterestsofallactorsreasonablywell,exceptforRussia.
Indeed,thedualpipelineswouldbeadisasterfortheKremlin.Russiahasavitalinterestin
controllinggassuppliestoEurope,whereGazpromsells80percentofitsgas.TheEuropeanUnion
hassucceededindiversifyingsuppliesinrecentyears(inpartthroughLNGimports)andseeksto
developadditionalpipelinesfromCentralAsiaandtheMiddleEasttofurtherreduceitsreliance
onRussiangas.NewpipelinesfromQatarandIrancouldtakeawaymarketsharefromRussia,but
moreimportantlyreducepricesbelowwhattheRussianstatebudgetneedstosurvive.
Russiahasshownawillingnesstogotowaroversuchissuesbefore.ItfoughtthewarinGeorgia
tofrustrateWesternplanstoexportgasfromtheCaspianSearegiontotheWestviaAzerbaijanand
GeorgiatoTurkey.
ItwenttowarinUkraineinordertocontrolavitaltransitstatebetweenRussiaandEurope.
AnditisreasonabletoexpectthatRussiawillgodownfightingtopreventaQataripipelinefrom
crossingSyriaonitswaytoEuropeandtomakeIranianexportsreliantonRussiansupport.Italso
explainswhyRussiahaschosentotargetQatari-andSaudi-fundedrebelgroupsinSyriainits
bombingcampaign,andwhyRussiasinvolvementhasonlybolsteredtheGulfStatesresolve.
Whensuchenergyconsiderationsaretakenintoaccount,itseemsclearthatsurrenderingSyriato
IranianandRussianinterests,assomehaverecommendedinrecentweeks,wouldbeadisaster.
ButnegotiatingasolutionwillbeverydifficultwithRussiawhenU.S.andRussianinterestsareso
sharplyopposed.TheUnitedStatesmuststandfirmandusethecrisistobegintomendrelations
withTurkey,SaudiArabia,andothertraditionalalliesintheMiddleEast,withwhichtieshave
beenfrayedbythetumultoftheArabSpring.Turkey,atthecrossroadsofAsiaandEurope,stands
thebestchanceofplayinganhonestbrokerroleingastransitandensuring,withU.S.support,that
allgassuppliersintheMiddleEasthavetheabilitytofreelyexportandtransporttheirvaluable
commodity.
From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/26/201512:27:34AM
Subject: Fwd:Herbst:KeepingShokinasUkraine'sprosecutorgeneralis'anabsolutescandal'
SentfrommyiPad
From:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Date:26October201510:43:48AEDT
To:"'wilsonkyle81@gmail.com'"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"Wall,David(David.Wall@ona.gov.au)"
<David.Wall@ona.gov.au>,"'dantebbutt@yahoo.com'"<dantebbutt@yahoo.com>
Subject:FW:Herbst:KeepingShokinasUkraine'sprosecutorgeneralis'anabsolutescandal'
Herbstiswelldisposedofcourse,andtherestruthintheaccusation.Andnodoubthesrenderingthemoodhe
detectsaccurately.ButwhatitsuggestsismoreUkrainefatigueandagrowingdesiretoblamethevictim,declare
qualifiedvictoryandmoveon,comewhatwill.
From:JohnBesemeres[mailto:jbese@tpg.com.au]
Sent:Sunday,25October201511:20PM
To:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
From:DanTebbutt[mailto:dantebbutt@yahoo.com]
To:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>;JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>;DavidWall
<david.wall@ona.gov.au>;DougTrappett<doug.trappett@dfat.gov.au>;JohnBesemeres<jbese@tpg.com.au>
Subject:Herbst:KeepingShokinasUkraine'sprosecutorgeneralis'anabsolutescandal'
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/herbst-keeping-shokin-as-ukraines-prosecutor-general-is-an-absolute-
scandal-400586.html?utm_campaign=traqli&utm_source=traqli&utm_medium=traqli&source=traqli
H
erbst:KeepingShokinasUkraine'sprosecutorgeneralis'anabsolutescandal'
FormerU.S.AmbassadortoUkraineJohnHerbstsaidonOct.24thatwhileUkraineiswinningonewar,theone
againstRussia'sinvasion,itislosinganotherone,the"non-fightagainstcorruption,"asheputit.
Herbst,speakingtoagatheringoftheU.S.-UkraineBusinessCouncilinKyiv,blastedUkrainianPesidentPetro
PoroshenkofornotfiringProsecutorGeneralViktorShokin.HenotedthatnotonlyhasShokinfailedtoprosecute
corruptlawbreakerssincecomingtoofficeasapresidentialappointeeinFebruary,hehasactuallyassistedcorruption
--alongwiththejudiciary.
"It'sanabsolutescandalthatMr.Shokinistheprosecutorgeneral,"Herbstsaid,addingthatPoroshenko"doesnt
reallyunderstandhowdamagingthisistohisreputationintheWest."
Herbst,whoisdirectoroftheAtlanticCouncil'sDinuPatriciuEurasiaCenterinWashington,D.C.,saidthefailureof
Ukrainianleaderstofightcorruptionisthetoptopicamongthosewithwhomhe'smetinKyivinrecentdays.
"Theleveloffrustrationisveryhigh,"Herbst,whoservedastheAmericanambassadortoUkrainefrom2003-2006,
said."TheleveloffrustrationinWashingtonisveryhigh."
HerbstsaidthatseniorofficialsintheAmerican,GermanandEuropeanUnionhavethesameview.
"Thiscannotstand,"hesaid."Isuspectonthebasisofzeroinsideinformation"thatPoroshenkowillhavetofire
Shokinsoon.
"Mr.Poroshenkocannottalkinaseriouswaywithworldleadersaslongashehasthisstainontheadministration,"
Herbstsaid,thenalludingtoallegationsofcorruptionamongprosecutors."IamsureMr.Shokinhasthemeanstolive
verycomfortablyinretirement.Thepointhastobethatfromthismomentforward,corruptionisnolongerpermitted
atthehighestlevelsofthiscountry."
TheabjectfailuretocountercorruptionandcreateruleoflawcouldleadtoUkraine'sthirdrevolutionsince2004."I
hopeitdoesn'tleadtothethirdMaidan,"Herbstsaid.Butifanotherrevolutionhappens,"responsibilitylieswiththose
whoarenothonestenoughorstrongenoughorseriousenoughtodowhatisnecessary."
ThefailuretofightcorruptionalsoaffectstheextenttowhichtheWestiswillingtoassistUkrainefinancially,militarily
andwithsanctionsagainstRussia,hesaid.TocontinuereceivingWesternassistance,"Ukraineisgoingtohaveto
makechangesinthemonthstocome.Idon'tseethattheyhavemuchofachoice."
HerbstsaidthatthecorruptwayinwhichUkraineisbeinggovernedhasnotchangedsubstantiallyenoughsince
independencein1991.
"InUkraine,therearelawsandthentherearetheprocessesbywhichmajordecisionsaretaken.Thesearetwo
separatethings,"Herbstsaid."Themostimportantdecisionssinceindependencehavebeentakenthroughthese
back-doorprocesses.Theseback-doorprocessesarewherewealthisabletoinfluencepowerandpowerisableto
accomodateandincreasewealth."
Thesolutionisclear.
"Ifyouhaveanindependentlegalsystem--judiciaryandprosecutorgeneral'soffice--andthedecisionsofthislegal
systemaretakenonanhonestbasisandenforcedonanhonestbasis,theback-doorprocessescouldcease,"Herbst
said.
IrinaPaliashvili,aKyivlawyerwhoheadstheU.S.-UkraineBusinessCouncil'slegalcommittee,saidthatreplacing
Shokinwillnotbeenough.ShesaidacompleteoverhaulisrequiredofUkraine's"kleptocratic,oligarch"legalsystem,
whosejudges,prosecutorsandpoliceareinpowertoprotectelitesandfuelcorruptionratherthanfightit.
Theoldelitesaregetting"verycomfortableagain"tothepointwhereenergymogulDmytroFirtash,wantedin
Americaoncorruptionchargesthathedenies,istalkingaboutreturningtoUkraine,wherehewouldrejoinsuchallies
asSerhiyLyovochkin,theformerchiefofstafftoex-PresidentViktorYanukovych,Paliashvilisaid.
"Journalistsarepublishingpictures,information,"Paliashvilisaid,buttheauthoritiesareignoringblatantcasesof
suspectedcorruption,includingthoseinvolvingMykolaMartynenko,thememberofparliamentwhoisthe"right-hand
man"ofPrimeMinisterArseniyYatsenyuk.
IncontrasttoHerbst'sbleakthoughwidelysharedassessmentofUkraine'slackofprogressincombatingcorruption,
theformerambassadorsaidthatUkrainehasbeenabletoputRussianPresidentVladimirPutinonthedefensiveon
thewarfront.
HerbstsaidthatUkrainehasproventhatitisableandwillingtofighttosuchanextentthatPutinwouldneedto
escalatetheconflictsignificantly--whichwouldincurgreaterinternationalwrath--tomakeprogressontheground.
HewarnedthatPutin'saimsremaintoeitherreplaceUkraine'scurrentgovernmentinKyivwithaKremlin-friendly
oneortocontinuetodestabilizeKyiv'scurrentgovernmenttosuchanextentthatitbecomeshamstrunginforeign
policy.
"IfnotMr.Putin,seniorpeoplearoundhimunderstandtheirUkrainepolicyisfailing,"Herbstsaid.That'sonereason
theKremlinhasshiftedtheattentiontoSyriainthefiveweeks.
HerbstwascriticalofU.S.PresidentBarackObama."Idon'tthinkPresidentObamaunderstandsgreatpower
politics,doesn'tunderstandthedangertooursocietyofMr.Putin'swantondisregardforinternationalborders,"
Herbstsaid.
HewasalsoskepticalaboutwhetherObamawouldvisitUkrainebeforeleavingofficein2017ashistwoimmediate
predecessors--GeorgeW.BushandBillClinton--did.
"Ithinkitwouldbeawonderfulthing.Idontthinkitshighonhislistofpriority,"Herbstsaid."Iwouldhavetosay
theoddsareagainstit."
KyivPostchiefeditorBrianBonnercanbereachedatbonner@kyivpost.com
SentfrommyiPhone
From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/26/201512:27:34AM
Subject: Fwd:Herbst:KeepingShokinasUkraine'sprosecutorgeneralis'anabsolutescandal'
SentfrommyiPad
From:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Date:26October201510:43:48AEDT
To:"'wilsonkyle81@gmail.com'"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"Wall,David(David.Wall@ona.gov.au)"
<David.Wall@ona.gov.au>,"'dantebbutt@yahoo.com'"<dantebbutt@yahoo.com>
Herbstiswelldisposedofcourse,andtherestruthintheaccusation.Andnodoubthesrenderingthemoodhe
detectsaccurately.ButwhatitsuggestsismoreUkrainefatigueandagrowingdesiretoblamethevictim,declare
qualifiedvictoryandmoveon,comewhatwill.
From:JohnBesemeres[mailto:jbese@tpg.com.au]
To:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
From:DanTebbutt[mailto:dantebbutt@yahoo.com]
To:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>;JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>;DavidWall
<david.wall@ona.gov.au>;DougTrappett<doug.trappett@dfat.gov.au>;JohnBesemeres<jbese@tpg.com.au>
Subject:Herbst:KeepingShokinasUkraine'sprosecutorgeneralis'anabsolutescandal'
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/herbst-keeping-shokin-as-ukraines-prosecutor-general-is-an-absolute-
scandal-400586.html?utm_campaign=traqli&utm_source=traqli&utm_medium=traqli&source=traqli
H
erbst:KeepingShokinasUkraine'sprosecutorgeneralis'anabsolutescandal'
FormerU.S.AmbassadortoUkraineJohnHerbstsaidonOct.24thatwhileUkraineiswinningonewar,theone
againstRussia'sinvasion,itislosinganotherone,the"non-fightagainstcorruption,"asheputit.
Herbst,speakingtoagatheringoftheU.S.-UkraineBusinessCouncilinKyiv,blastedUkrainianPesidentPetro
PoroshenkofornotfiringProsecutorGeneralViktorShokin.HenotedthatnotonlyhasShokinfailedtoprosecute
corruptlawbreakerssincecomingtoofficeasapresidentialappointeeinFebruary,hehasactuallyassistedcorruption
--alongwiththejudiciary.
"It'sanabsolutescandalthatMr.Shokinistheprosecutorgeneral,"Herbstsaid,addingthatPoroshenko"doesnt
reallyunderstandhowdamagingthisistohisreputationintheWest."
Herbst,whoisdirectoroftheAtlanticCouncil'sDinuPatriciuEurasiaCenterinWashington,D.C.,saidthefailureof
Ukrainianleaderstofightcorruptionisthetoptopicamongthosewithwhomhe'smetinKyivinrecentdays.
"Theleveloffrustrationisveryhigh,"Herbst,whoservedastheAmericanambassadortoUkrainefrom2003-2006,
said."TheleveloffrustrationinWashingtonisveryhigh."
HerbstsaidthatseniorofficialsintheAmerican,GermanandEuropeanUnionhavethesameview.
"Thiscannotstand,"hesaid."Isuspectonthebasisofzeroinsideinformation"thatPoroshenkowillhavetofire
Shokinsoon.
"Mr.Poroshenkocannottalkinaseriouswaywithworldleadersaslongashehasthisstainontheadministration,"
Herbstsaid,thenalludingtoallegationsofcorruptionamongprosecutors."IamsureMr.Shokinhasthemeanstolive
verycomfortablyinretirement.Thepointhastobethatfromthismomentforward,corruptionisnolongerpermitted
atthehighestlevelsofthiscountry."
TheabjectfailuretocountercorruptionandcreateruleoflawcouldleadtoUkraine'sthirdrevolutionsince2004."I
hopeitdoesn'tleadtothethirdMaidan,"Herbstsaid.Butifanotherrevolutionhappens,"responsibilitylieswiththose
whoarenothonestenoughorstrongenoughorseriousenoughtodowhatisnecessary."
ThefailuretofightcorruptionalsoaffectstheextenttowhichtheWestiswillingtoassistUkrainefinancially,militarily
andwithsanctionsagainstRussia,hesaid.TocontinuereceivingWesternassistance,"Ukraineisgoingtohaveto
makechangesinthemonthstocome.Idon'tseethattheyhavemuchofachoice."
HerbstsaidthatthecorruptwayinwhichUkraineisbeinggovernedhasnotchangedsubstantiallyenoughsince
independencein1991.
"InUkraine,therearelawsandthentherearetheprocessesbywhichmajordecisionsaretaken.Thesearetwo
separatethings,"Herbstsaid."Themostimportantdecisionssinceindependencehavebeentakenthroughthese
back-doorprocesses.Theseback-doorprocessesarewherewealthisabletoinfluencepowerandpowerisableto
accomodateandincreasewealth."
Thesolutionisclear.
"Ifyouhaveanindependentlegalsystem--judiciaryandprosecutorgeneral'soffice--andthedecisionsofthislegal
systemaretakenonanhonestbasisandenforcedonanhonestbasis,theback-doorprocessescouldcease,"Herbst
said.
IrinaPaliashvili,aKyivlawyerwhoheadstheU.S.-UkraineBusinessCouncil'slegalcommittee,saidthatreplacing
Shokinwillnotbeenough.ShesaidacompleteoverhaulisrequiredofUkraine's"kleptocratic,oligarch"legalsystem,
whosejudges,prosecutorsandpoliceareinpowertoprotectelitesandfuelcorruptionratherthanfightit.
Theoldelitesaregetting"verycomfortableagain"tothepointwhereenergymogulDmytroFirtash,wantedin
Americaoncorruptionchargesthathedenies,istalkingaboutreturningtoUkraine,wherehewouldrejoinsuchallies
asSerhiyLyovochkin,theformerchiefofstafftoex-PresidentViktorYanukovych,Paliashvilisaid.
"Journalistsarepublishingpictures,information,"Paliashvilisaid,buttheauthoritiesareignoringblatantcasesof
suspectedcorruption,includingthoseinvolvingMykolaMartynenko,thememberofparliamentwhoisthe"right-hand
man"ofPrimeMinisterArseniyYatsenyuk.
IncontrasttoHerbst'sbleakthoughwidelysharedassessmentofUkraine'slackofprogressincombatingcorruption,
theformerambassadorsaidthatUkrainehasbeenabletoputRussianPresidentVladimirPutinonthedefensiveon
thewarfront.
HerbstsaidthatUkrainehasproventhatitisableandwillingtofighttosuchanextentthatPutinwouldneedto
escalatetheconflictsignificantly--whichwouldincurgreaterinternationalwrath--tomakeprogressontheground.
HewarnedthatPutin'saimsremaintoeitherreplaceUkraine'scurrentgovernmentinKyivwithaKremlin-friendly
oneortocontinuetodestabilizeKyiv'scurrentgovernmenttosuchanextentthatitbecomeshamstrunginforeign
policy.
"IfnotMr.Putin,seniorpeoplearoundhimunderstandtheirUkrainepolicyisfailing,"Herbstsaid.That'sonereason
theKremlinhasshiftedtheattentiontoSyriainthefiveweeks.
HerbstwascriticalofU.S.PresidentBarackObama."Idon'tthinkPresidentObamaunderstandsgreatpower
politics,doesn'tunderstandthedangertooursocietyofMr.Putin'swantondisregardforinternationalborders,"
Herbstsaid.
HewasalsoskepticalaboutwhetherObamawouldvisitUkrainebeforeleavingofficein2017ashistwoimmediate
predecessors--GeorgeW.BushandBillClinton--did.
"Ithinkitwouldbeawonderfulthing.Idontthinkitshighonhislistofpriority,"Herbstsaid."Iwouldhavetosay
theoddsareagainstit."
KyivPostchiefeditorBrianBonnercanbereachedatbonner@kyivpost.com
SentfrommyiPhone
Senttime: 10/19/201510:28:36AM
Subject: FW:WhiteHouseIsWeighingaSyriaRetreat-BloombergView
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Monday,October19,20156:05AM
To:MichaelWSRyanNickHerasMichaelArdPaulHollingsworthPaulKoble-bpBillSkidmoreWladimirvanWilgenburgAhmed
HashimRobSpringWillemdeVogelClintonSmullyanJrsocor@jamestown.orgPaulGobleStephenBlankMatthewCzekajJohnB
Dunlop
Subject:WhiteHouseIsWeighingaSyriaRetreat-BloombergView
ThisarticleismorethanaweekoldbutreallyhighlightsObama'sindecisivenessonSyria.CriticismfromFredHofoftheapproach
offeredbyPhilipGordonisspoton.
WhiteHouseIsWeighingaSyriaRetreat
ByJoshRogin
http://bv.ms/1L3krTU
BloombergView
DECLASSIFIED
439OCT9,20156:00AMEDT
ByJoshRogin&EliLake
A
AweekintoRussia'smilitaryinterventioninSyria,sometopWhiteHouseadvisersandNationalSecurityCouncilstaffersare
tryingtopersuadePresidentBarackObamatoscalebackU.S.engagementthere,tofocusonlesseningtheviolenceand,fornow,
togiveupontopplingtheSyrianregime.
Inaddition,administrationofficialsandMiddleEastexpertsonbothsidesofthedebatetellus,Obama'sforeign-policyteamno
longerdoubtsthatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinintendstopropupPresidentBasharal-Assadandprimarilytargetopposition
groupsotherthantheIslamicState,includingthosetrainedbytheCentralIntelligenceAgency.
Theadministrationcametothisconclusionlate.DespitewarningsfromU.S.intelligenceagenciesthatPutin'smilitarybuildupwas
intendedtokeepAssadinpower,theWhiteHousenonethelessdecidedtoexplorecooperatingwithRussiaontheground.
Throughoutthesummerandintothefall,topRussianofficials--includingPutinhimselfinameetinglastmonthwithObamaatthe
U.N.--saidtheywerenotcommittedtokeepingAssadinpowerforthelongterm,andwouldonlytargetIslamicStatefightersin
theirmilitaryoffensive,accordingtoU.S.officials.
TheseofficialsnolongerbelieveRussiawastellingthetruth.ReutersreportedthisweekthatPutinwasplanninghisSyria
interventionformonthswithIranianofficials,whilemisleadingtheWest.NowanyhopethattheU.S.andRussiacouldwork
togetheronstabilizingSyriahasended.
Atthesametime,ObamahasruledoutengaginginaproxywarwithPutin'smilitary,leavingfewgoodoptions.Onepath,
however,wouldmeanfindingwaystotampdownthefightingbynegotiatingsmall,localceasefireswiththeAssadregime.
TheWhiteHousesomehowthinkswecande-escalatetheconflictwhilekeepingAssadinpower,onesenioradministration
officialtoldus.
Thatview,beingpushedbytopWhiteHouseNationalSecuritystaffers,includingseniorcoordinatorfortheMiddleEastRob
Malley,isnotnew.ButithasreceivedfreshemphasisgivenRussianintervention.
IfAssadisstayingandtheresnopoliticalprocessinsight,thisargumentgoes,theU.S.mightaswellfocusonalleviatingthe
sufferingoftheSyrianpeopleandmitigatethegrowingrefugeecrisis.
Localceasefireshavebeenstrucksporadicallythroughoutthewar,mostlyinareasundersiegebytheAssadregime.TheUnited
NationsspecialenvoyforSyria,StaffandeMistura,hasbeenpushingthisideaforoverayear.
ThecurrentpolicyoftheUnitedStatesanditspartners,toincreasepressureonAssadsothathecomestothetableand
negotiateshisowndeparture,mustberethought,MalleyspredecessorattheNationalSecurityCouncil,PhilipGordon,wroteat
PoliticoasRussiawasamassingitsforcesinSyria.
TheNSCviewisopposedbytopofficialsinotherpartsofthegovernment,especiallySecretaryofStateJohnKerry
andU.S.AmbassadortotheUNSamanthaPower.TheyaretryingtopersuadeObamathattheonlywaytosolveSyria
istoincreasethepressureonAssadinthehopeshewillenternegotiations.
YetKerryandPowernowfindthemselveswithoutanyhopethatPutinmightbringtheSyrianregimetothetable.Kerry,though
alwaysskepticalofRussia,hasbeenthepointmanonengagingtheRussiangovernmentthroughseveralconversationswithForeign
MinisterSergeiLavrov.ButitsnowcleartheRussianswereleadingtheObamaadministrationdowntheprimrosepath.
InSyria,muchasitdidinUkraine,Russiahashiddenitstrueintentions,usingtheruseofjoiningthefightagainstISILtoprovide
coverforRussiasmilitaryinterventiontopropuptheAssadregime,SenateArmedServicesCommitteerankingDemocratJack
ReedsaidThursday.Russiasactions,however,increasinglyexposetheirtrueobjectives.
Thede-escalationanddelay-Assads-departureapproachpushedbyMalleyandGordonhasalwaysbeenonthetable.Itisfully
operativenow,formerStateDepartmentofficialFredericHofwroteinresponsetoGordon'sPoliticoarticle.Theproblem,he
said,isthatitwontworkbecauseneithertheregime,norTehran,norMoscowhavedemonstratedanyinterestinit.
WhiteHousespokespersonEmilyHornetoldusthattherehasbeennochangeintheadministrationspositionthatAssadmustgo,
whilealsonotingthattopofficials,includingKerry,havepubliclyacknowledgedthatthetimetableisnegotiable.TheU.S.isalways
lookingforwaystodiminishtheviolencethere,sheadded:Thisisnotinanywayasubstituteorchangeinourlongstandingpolicy
ofpressingforapoliticaltransitioninSyria.
OtherofficialstoldusthatwhileU.S.stillhasprogramsinplacetoaidthemoderateopposition,topmembersoftheadministration
whohavebeenpushingformoreofthatsupport,orfortheestablishmentofsafezonesinSyria,areincreasinglyfrustratedwiththe
WhiteHousesreluctance.ThisgroupincludedKerryandGeneralJohnAllen,theoutgoingspecialenvoytotheanti-IslamicState
coalition.
Putin'sinterventionhashadtheU.S.flummoxedfromdayone.AstheRussianmilitarymovedintoSyria,U.S.intelligenceofficials
tellus,theintelligencecommunitywasskepticalthatitintendedtofocusitsmilitarycampaignontheIslamicState.Evenso,asthe
NewYorkTimesreported,theU.S.wassurprisedbythespeedwithwhichRussiabuiltandthenannounceditsnewcoalitionwith
thegovernmentsofSyria,IranandIraqtosupportitsmilitarycampaign.
U.S.intelligenceofficialsalsotoldusthatwhiletheymistrustedRussianintentions,theydidnotspecificallypredict
thatrebelgroupssupportedbytheCIA,suchasTajamual-Ezzah,wouldbeamongthefirsttargetsoftheaircampaign,
orthatRussianjetswouldencroachintoTurkishairspaceandlockradaronTurkishjets.Yetboththosethings
happened,andnowCongressionaloversightcommitteesarereportedlyinvestigatingpotentialintelligencefailuresbeforeRussia's
escalation.
Nevertheless,inthoseopeningdays,topWhiteHouseofficialspubliclydownplayedtheRussianactions.Theyhadabasein
Syria.Thisisnotnew,DeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorforCommunicationsBenRhodessaidOct.1.Everybodyislookingat
Putinasifthisissomesortofoffensivemaneuver.
Inapressconferencethenextday,ObamasaidhebelievedRussiawasmakingastrategicmistakebydeepeningitssupportfor
Assad,butemphasizedthathewouldnotincreaseU.S.militaryinterventioninSyria,callinghiscriticsideashalf-bakedand
mumbojumbo.
SenateForeignRelationsCommitteeChairmanBobCorkertoldusthisweekthatbynotdoingmoretoconfrontPutins
escalation,theadministrationistacitlyadmittingitwillnolongerbeabletosecureAssadsouster.
Theveryactsoverthelast10daysdramaticallychangethepositionofthetwosidesrelativetothenegotiationsandcertainly
stakeoutthefactthatfromtheRussianandIranianperspective,whichwearenotgoingtochallenge,thatAssadistherefora
while,hesaid.
BrianKatulis,aMiddleEastfellowattheCenterforAmericanProgress,toldusthatObamasreluctancetoconfronttheRussians
inSyriaissymptomaticofhisoverallreluctancetoembroilAmericainanothercostlyandbloodywarintheMiddleEast.
Ifthatsyourguidingprinciple,ithelpsexplainwhytheymightlookforapositiveinitiallyinwhatRussiasdoing,hesaid.The
endresultisapolicythatdoesntshiftinanydirectiondespitethechangesintheenvironment.
Caughtbetweentwocampsinhisadministration,ObamamaynotendupshiftingtheU.S.approachtoSyriaatall,althoughthe
de-escalationsidehasthemomentum.Eitherway,asRussia,IranandtheSyrianregimechangefactsontheground,therelative
positionofAmericaandtheSyriansithassupportedbecomesgraverbytheday.
Thisco
Senttime: 10/19/201510:28:36AM
Subject: FW:WhiteHouseIsWeighingaSyriaRetreat-BloombergView
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Monday,October19,20156:05AM
To:MichaelWSRyanNickHerasMichaelArdPaulHollingsworthPaulKoble-bpBillSkidmoreWladimirvanWilgenburgAhmed
HashimRobSpringWillemdeVogelClintonSmullyanJrsocor@jamestown.orgPaulGobleStephenBlankMatthewCzekajJohnB
Dunlop
Subject:WhiteHouseIsWeighingaSyriaRetreat-BloombergView
ThisarticleismorethanaweekoldbutreallyhighlightsObama'sindecisivenessonSyria.CriticismfromFredHofoftheapproach
offeredbyPhilipGordonisspoton.
ByJoshRogin
http://bv.ms/1L3krTU
BloombergView
DECLASSIFIED
439OCT9,20156:00AMEDT
ByJoshRogin&EliLake
A
AweekintoRussia'smilitaryinterventioninSyria,sometopWhiteHouseadvisersandNationalSecurityCouncilstaffersare
tryingtopersuadePresidentBarackObamatoscalebackU.S.engagementthere,tofocusonlesseningtheviolenceand,fornow,
togiveupontopplingtheSyrianregime.
Inaddition,administrationofficialsandMiddleEastexpertsonbothsidesofthedebatetellus,Obama'sforeign-policyteamno
longerdoubtsthatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinintendstopropupPresidentBasharal-Assadandprimarilytargetopposition
groupsotherthantheIslamicState,includingthosetrainedbytheCentralIntelligenceAgency.
Theadministrationcametothisconclusionlate.DespitewarningsfromU.S.intelligenceagenciesthatPutin'smilitarybuildupwas
intendedtokeepAssadinpower,theWhiteHousenonethelessdecidedtoexplorecooperatingwithRussiaontheground.
Throughoutthesummerandintothefall,topRussianofficials--includingPutinhimselfinameetinglastmonthwithObamaatthe
U.N.--saidtheywerenotcommittedtokeepingAssadinpowerforthelongterm,andwouldonlytargetIslamicStatefightersin
theirmilitaryoffensive,accordingtoU.S.officials.
TheseofficialsnolongerbelieveRussiawastellingthetruth.ReutersreportedthisweekthatPutinwasplanninghisSyria
interventionformonthswithIranianofficials,whilemisleadingtheWest.NowanyhopethattheU.S.andRussiacouldwork
togetheronstabilizingSyriahasended.
Atthesametime,ObamahasruledoutengaginginaproxywarwithPutin'smilitary,leavingfewgoodoptions.Onepath,
however,wouldmeanfindingwaystotampdownthefightingbynegotiatingsmall,localceasefireswiththeAssadregime.
TheWhiteHousesomehowthinkswecande-escalatetheconflictwhilekeepingAssadinpower,onesenioradministration
officialtoldus.
Thatview,beingpushedbytopWhiteHouseNationalSecuritystaffers,includingseniorcoordinatorfortheMiddleEastRob
Malley,isnotnew.ButithasreceivedfreshemphasisgivenRussianintervention.
IfAssadisstayingandtheresnopoliticalprocessinsight,thisargumentgoes,theU.S.mightaswellfocusonalleviatingthe
sufferingoftheSyrianpeopleandmitigatethegrowingrefugeecrisis.
Localceasefireshavebeenstrucksporadicallythroughoutthewar,mostlyinareasundersiegebytheAssadregime.TheUnited
NationsspecialenvoyforSyria,StaffandeMistura,hasbeenpushingthisideaforoverayear.
ThecurrentpolicyoftheUnitedStatesanditspartners,toincreasepressureonAssadsothathecomestothetableand
negotiateshisowndeparture,mustberethought,MalleyspredecessorattheNationalSecurityCouncil,PhilipGordon,wroteat
PoliticoasRussiawasamassingitsforcesinSyria.
TheNSCviewisopposedbytopofficialsinotherpartsofthegovernment,especiallySecretaryofStateJohnKerry
andU.S.AmbassadortotheUNSamanthaPower.TheyaretryingtopersuadeObamathattheonlywaytosolveSyria
istoincreasethepressureonAssadinthehopeshewillenternegotiations.
YetKerryandPowernowfindthemselveswithoutanyhopethatPutinmightbringtheSyrianregimetothetable.Kerry,though
alwaysskepticalofRussia,hasbeenthepointmanonengagingtheRussiangovernmentthroughseveralconversationswithForeign
MinisterSergeiLavrov.ButitsnowcleartheRussianswereleadingtheObamaadministrationdowntheprimrosepath.
InSyria,muchasitdidinUkraine,Russiahashiddenitstrueintentions,usingtheruseofjoiningthefightagainstISILtoprovide
coverforRussiasmilitaryinterventiontopropuptheAssadregime,SenateArmedServicesCommitteerankingDemocratJack
ReedsaidThursday.Russiasactions,however,increasinglyexposetheirtrueobjectives.
Thede-escalationanddelay-Assads-departureapproachpushedbyMalleyandGordonhasalwaysbeenonthetable.Itisfully
operativenow,formerStateDepartmentofficialFredericHofwroteinresponsetoGordon'sPoliticoarticle.Theproblem,he
said,isthatitwontworkbecauseneithertheregime,norTehran,norMoscowhavedemonstratedanyinterestinit.
WhiteHousespokespersonEmilyHornetoldusthattherehasbeennochangeintheadministrationspositionthatAssadmustgo,
whilealsonotingthattopofficials,includingKerry,havepubliclyacknowledgedthatthetimetableisnegotiable.TheU.S.isalways
lookingforwaystodiminishtheviolencethere,sheadded:Thisisnotinanywayasubstituteorchangeinourlongstandingpolicy
ofpressingforapoliticaltransitioninSyria.
OtherofficialstoldusthatwhileU.S.stillhasprogramsinplacetoaidthemoderateopposition,topmembersoftheadministration
whohavebeenpushingformoreofthatsupport,orfortheestablishmentofsafezonesinSyria,areincreasinglyfrustratedwiththe
WhiteHousesreluctance.ThisgroupincludedKerryandGeneralJohnAllen,theoutgoingspecialenvoytotheanti-IslamicState
coalition.
Putin'sinterventionhashadtheU.S.flummoxedfromdayone.AstheRussianmilitarymovedintoSyria,U.S.intelligenceofficials
tellus,theintelligencecommunitywasskepticalthatitintendedtofocusitsmilitarycampaignontheIslamicState.Evenso,asthe
NewYorkTimesreported,theU.S.wassurprisedbythespeedwithwhichRussiabuiltandthenannounceditsnewcoalitionwith
thegovernmentsofSyria,IranandIraqtosupportitsmilitarycampaign.
U.S.intelligenceofficialsalsotoldusthatwhiletheymistrustedRussianintentions,theydidnotspecificallypredict
thatrebelgroupssupportedbytheCIA,suchasTajamual-Ezzah,wouldbeamongthefirsttargetsoftheaircampaign,
orthatRussianjetswouldencroachintoTurkishairspaceandlockradaronTurkishjets.Yetboththosethings
happened,andnowCongressionaloversightcommitteesarereportedlyinvestigatingpotentialintelligencefailuresbeforeRussia's
escalation.
Nevertheless,inthoseopeningdays,topWhiteHouseofficialspubliclydownplayedtheRussianactions.Theyhadabasein
Syria.Thisisnotnew,DeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorforCommunicationsBenRhodessaidOct.1.Everybodyislookingat
Putinasifthisissomesortofoffensivemaneuver.
Inapressconferencethenextday,ObamasaidhebelievedRussiawasmakingastrategicmistakebydeepeningitssupportfor
Assad,butemphasizedthathewouldnotincreaseU.S.militaryinterventioninSyria,callinghiscriticsideashalf-bakedand
mumbojumbo.
SenateForeignRelationsCommitteeChairmanBobCorkertoldusthisweekthatbynotdoingmoretoconfrontPutins
escalation,theadministrationistacitlyadmittingitwillnolongerbeabletosecureAssadsouster.
Theveryactsoverthelast10daysdramaticallychangethepositionofthetwosidesrelativetothenegotiationsandcertainly
stakeoutthefactthatfromtheRussianandIranianperspective,whichwearenotgoingtochallenge,thatAssadistherefora
while,hesaid.
BrianKatulis,aMiddleEastfellowattheCenterforAmericanProgress,toldusthatObamasreluctancetoconfronttheRussians
inSyriaissymptomaticofhisoverallreluctancetoembroilAmericainanothercostlyandbloodywarintheMiddleEast.
Ifthatsyourguidingprinciple,ithelpsexplainwhytheymightlookforapositiveinitiallyinwhatRussiasdoing,hesaid.The
endresultisapolicythatdoesntshiftinanydirectiondespitethechangesintheenvironment.
Caughtbetweentwocampsinhisadministration,ObamamaynotendupshiftingtheU.S.approachtoSyriaatall,althoughthe
de-escalationsidehasthemomentum.Eitherway,asRussia,IranandtheSyrianregimechangefactsontheground,therelative
positionofAmericaandtheSyriansithassupportedbecomesgraverbytheday.
Thisco
Senttime: 10/19/201510:26:31AM
FW:[IT'STHEECONOMY,ST*PID......ANDDEFENSETOO!!!]FROMUK'SDAILYTELEGRAPH:Russiaretreatstoautarkyaspoverty
Subject:
looms.......FOMTHEBUS.INSIDER:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafightwithUSplanesoverSyria!!
Sent:Sunday,October18,20156:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[IT'STHEECONOMY,ST*PID......ANDDEFENSETOO!!!]FROMUK'SDAILYTELEGRAPH:Russiaretreatstoautarkyas
povertylooms.......FOMTHEBUS.INSIDER:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafightwithUSplanesover
Syria!!
Date:Sun,Oct18,2015at9:16PM
Subject:[IT'STHEECONOMY,ST*PID......ANDDEFENSETOO!!!]FROMUK'SDAILYTELEGRAPH:Russiaretreats
toautarkyaspovertylooms.......FOMTHEBUS.INSIDER:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafight
withUSplanesoverSyria!!
Subject:Russiaretreatstoautarkyaspovertylooms>MoreBluntly.....RussiaisrunningoutofmoneyBGTIME-WD
wderzko@pathcom.com
Russiaretreatstoautarkyaspovertylooms
VladimirPutinisfallingbackonSoviet-eraself-relianceasoilwealthevaporatesandsanctionscut
offvitally-neededtechnology
551 119 0 15 685
Email
A1948propagandapostershowingStalinsurroundedbyadmirersandreading'LonglivetheKomsomolgeneration!'Photo:
Alamy
ByAmbroseEvans-Pritchard,Moscow4:23PMBST18Oct2015
400CommentsRussiaisrunningoutof
money.PresidentVladimirPutinistakingastrategicgamble,depletingtheKremlin'slastreservefunds
tocoverthebudgetandtopayforanescalatingwarinSyriaatthesametime.
Thethreebigratingagencieshaveallissuedalertsoverrecentdays,warningthatthecountry'spublic
financesaredeterioratingfastandfuriously.ThereisnoprospectofanoilrevivalaslongasSaudi
Arabiacontinuestofloodthemarket.Russiacannotborrowabroadataviablecost.
Standard&Poor'ssaysthebudgetdeficitwillballoonto4.4pcofGDPthisyear,includingshort-fallsinlocal
governmentspendingandsocialsecurity.Thegovernmenthascommittedafurther$40bntobailingoutthe
bankingsystem.
Deficitsonthisscalearemanageableforricheconomieswithdeepcapitalmarkets.ItisanotherstoryforRussia
inthemidstofacommodityslumpandageopoliticalshowdownwiththeWest.Oilandgasrevenuescoverhalfthe
budget.
"Theycan'taffordtorundeficitsatall.Bytheendofnextyeartherewontbeanymoneyleftintheoilreservefund,"
saidLubomirMitovfromUnicredit.Thefinanceministryadmitsthatthefundswillbeexhaustedwithinsixteen
monthsoncurrentpolicies.
AlexeiKudrin,theformerfinanceminister,saidtheKremlinhasnomeansofraisinglargeloanstorideouttheoil
bust.Thepoolofinternalsavingsispitifullysmall.
Anyattempttoraisefundsfromthebankingsystemwouldaggravatethecreditcrunch.Hedescribedthelatest
effortstosqueezemoremoneyoutofRussia'senergycompaniesasthe"endoftheroad".
MrKudrinresignedin2011inprotestoverRussia'smilitarybuild-up,fearingthatitwouldtestpublicfinancesto
breakingpoint.Eventsareunfoldingmuchashesuggested.
Russiaispressingaheadwithmassiverearmament,pushingdefencespendingtowards5pcofGDPandrisking
thesortofmilitaryoverstretchthatbankruptedtheSovietUnion.
TheStockholmInternationalPeaceResearchInstitutesaidthemilitarybudgetfor2014rose8.1pcinrealterms
to$84bnastheKremlintookdeliveryofnewSu-34long-rangecombataircraftandS-400surface-to-airmissile
systems.
Itistorisebyanother15pcthisyear,ledbya60pcsurgeinarmsprocurement.Thisisanastonishingambitionat
atimewhentheeconomyisindeepcrisis,contractingby4.6pcoverthelasttwelvemonths.
MrPutinpairedbacktheplansearlierthisyearbuthassincerestoredtheoriginaltarget,tellingaVTBCapital
forumthisweekthattheeconomyhashitbottomand"thingsarelookingup."
DiplomatssaytherealityisthatwarsinSyriaandUkraineareeatingintothebudget.Cruisemissilesarenot
cheap.
MrPutinknowshecannotcountonoilandgasanylonger,belatedlyrecognizingthatshaletechnologyintheUS
threatenstocapcrudepricesforadecadeormore,andhaseffectivelydestroyedRussia'spetro-powerbusiness
model.
TheKremlinhasgonebacktothedrawingboard,workingfromtheSpartanassumptionthatoilwillremainstuckat
$50abarrelforthenextthreeyears.
Itcouldbeevenworse.Russia'scentralbankwarnedinareportthatitmaytake$30oiltostoptheUSshale
juggernaut.
Thecentralbanksriskscenariotalksofaneweraofsub-$40crudethatwouldentrenchthecurrentdepression.
Undertheseconditions,GDPcouldfallbymorethan5pcin2016,itsaid.
MrPutinclaimstohaveanaceuphissleeve:Russiawillfallbackonindustrialself-relianceandimport
substitution.Ourpoliciesarenotfrozen.Theyadapttocircumstances,hesaid.
TheKremlinislaunchingaradicalplantoslashimportsacrosstwentykeysectorswithinfiveyears,rangingfrom
heavymachinerytoelectricalengineering,photonics,cars,tractors,chemicals,pharmaceuticals,andfood.
Thetargetsaredrastic.Relianceonforeignfarmandforestrymachineryistobecutby56pc,foodprocessingby
53pc,andengineeringequipmentby34pc.Stateprocurementcontractswillbesteeredtocompaniesthat
produceinthecountry,whetherornottheycompeteonquality.
Buttheswitch-overcostsmoneythatthegovernmentdoesnothave.ViktorSemenovfromtheBelayaDacha
Groupsaidhisagro-conglomerateisrakinginbigsubsidiestogrowlettucesintheSiberianheartlandof
Novosibirsk,relyingonheatedgreenhousestofighttemperaturesofminus20degrees.
"We'rebuilding250hectaresofhothousesayearonmyfarms,"hesaid.Whetheritmakessenseisanybody's
guess.ThesamevegetablescouldbeimportedmorecheaplyfromTurkey.
Tradeexpertsarealreadyshakingtheirheads.Suchareflexusuallymeansacountryisgoingbadlyofftherails,
thoughGermanypulleditoffwithmacabresuccessinthe1930s.InmostofthecasesIhaveknownimport
substitutionpolicieshavefailed.Theydegradetheeconomy,"saidPascalLamy,formerheadoftheWorldTrade
Organisation.
Russiahaspocketsofexcellence-currentlyondisplayintheSyriantheatre-buttheengineeringandindustrial
baseoftheSovieterahaslargelybeenhollowedoutbyanovervaluedroubleduringthecommodityboom.
IthasbeenatextbookcaseoftheDutchDisease.Manyofthebestengineersandtechnicianshaveemigratedin
achronicbrain-drain.Russianeconomistssayitisfarfromclearwhetherthecountrycansuddenlypirouetteand
manufacturethemachinesitself.
VladislavInozemtsev,fromtheCenterforPost-IndustrialStudiesinMoscow,saidthelikelyoutcomeisaretreat
intoautarkyandpauperiseddecline,endinginwithdrawalfromtheglobaltradingsystem.Thiswayleadsus
towardsaquasi-Sovieteconomydetachedfromtheworldand,atthesametime,proudofitsautarkytowardsa
deterioratingeconomywhichcompensatesforthedropinlivingstandardswithpervasivepropaganda,hewrote.
MrPutiniscountingona50pcdevaluationsinceearly2014torestorelostcompetitivenessandignitea
manufacturingrenaissance.Havingpresidedoveradestructively-strongroubleforadecade,hehasnow
embracedthevirtuesofaweakcurrencywiththezealoftheconverted.
OlegDeripaska,chiefofthealuminiumgroupRusal,saiditiswishfulthinkingtosupposethatacheaproublecan
kick-startaneconomycaughtinatangleofred-tape,cryingoutforroot-and-branchreformandtheruleoflaw.
Weshouldstoplookingattheexchangerateandgivesomethoughttotheeconomicpolicywereallyneed.
Nobodyisgoingtoborrowat12pcinhardcurrencytoinvest,hesaid.
ThechiefeffecthasbeentoshrinktheRussianeconomyinglobalterms.GDPwas$2.3trillionatthepeak.Itis
now$1.2trillion,andIfearwearegoingbacktothelevelof1998whenitwas$700bn,hesaid.
ThiswouldbesmallerthanHolland($850bn)orhalfthesizeofTexas($1.4trillion),aremarkablestateofaffairsfor
acountryvyingforsuperpowermilitarystatusinEuropeandtheMiddleEast.
IgorSechin,theheadofoilgiantRosneft,saiddevaluationisafalsestrategy,addingsarcasticallythatifitwasso
goodtohalvetheroublefrom30to60againstthedollar,whynotjustkeepgoingandpushitallthewayto100.
Thatwouldbeadreamwouldntit?hesaid.
Inasense,MrPutinhaslittlechoice.Hecannotaffordburnthroughforeignreservestodefendtherouble.They
havealreadyfallenfrom$520bnto$371bn.Standard&Poor'ssaidtwo-fifthsofthismoneyisear-markedfor
otherfunctionsandcannotbedeemed"usable".
Thesereserveslooklargeonpaperbutareneartheminimumsafelevelsneededtoupholdconfidenceandto
coverforeigndebtredemptionsofRussiancompanies,runningat$12bnto$15bnaquarter.
WhatisclearisthatRussiasattempttoreinventitselfasanindustrialtigerwilltakeyearstobearfruit,ititis
possibleatall.Theearlyevidenceisdismal,thoughFordhasannouncedthatitwillstartbuildingenginesforthe
FiestalaterthisyearatitsRussianjointventureinElabuga.
Non-energyexportsplungedby25pcinthethirdquarter.Thisisavividillustrationoftheeconomysdeep
recessionandlackofcompetitiveness,saidEldarVakhitovfromBNPParibas.
Theoretically,roubleweaknessshouldhavesupportedcompetitivenessofnon-oilexportsinreality,itdidnothelp
atall,hesaid.Russia'scapitalstockissobadlyerodedthatthedevaluationmayleakintopricerisesand
'stagflation'withoutboostingoutput.
ElviraNabiullina,thecentralbankgovernor,saidthefloatingroublehadactedasshockabsorberwhenthecrisis
hit.Itisapre-conditionforrecovery,butisnotenoughinitselfwithoutdeepreform.Wehavetoswallowthebitter
pill,shesaid.
Whatisdisturbingisthatcompanieshaveseenariseinwindfallprofitsofalmost40pcthisyearfromdevaluation
butinvestmenthasdroppedby6.7pc.Theyarepayingoffdebtandbatteningdownthehatchesinstead.Whyare
theynotinvesting?ThisisthemainquestionforeconomicpolicyinRussia,shesaidattheVTBCapitalforum.
PollssuggestthatMrPutinremainspopularbutthefullforceofthecrisishasonlystartedtohithome,andhecan
nolongerkeepputtingoffthechoicebetweengunsandbutter.Realincomeshavedroppedby9.8pcoverthelast
year.Foodpriceshavejumped17pc.
IvanStarikov,theformerdeputyeconomyminister,saidthetrueinflationrateisnear30pc.Wearerapidly
approachingthefatefulmarkwhereof50pcoftheaverageRussianfamily'sincomewillbespentonfood.We
haveagainbecomeacountryofpoorpeople,hesaid.
From:VRT
Date:Sun,Oct18,2015at12:28AM
Subject:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafightwithUSplanesoverSyria
To:
Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwantto
pickafightwithUSplanesoverSyria
BusinessInsider

ByArminRosenOctober17,201510:54AM
TheskiesoverSyriaaredangerouslycrowdedthesedayswiththeUS,Russia,andtheAssadregimeallbombing
variousactorsonvaguelyoppositesidesofthecountry'smultidimensionalconflict.
InbothIraqandSyria,therealityofoverlappingaerialoperationsamongcountrieswithlittlegeopoliticalfondnesstoward
oneanotherhasalreadyledtoclaimsthatBritishaircrafthavebeenauthorizedtoengageRussianaircraftoverIraqif
threatened.
TheBritishgovernmentdeniedthesereports,buttheystillunderscorethepossibilityofconfrontationbetweenalliedand
Russianmilitaryaircraft.
Severalpresidentialcandidates,includingDemocraticfront-runnerandformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,have
calledforanallied-enforcedno-flyzoneinnorthernSyriaadevelopmentthatwouldbepartlyaimedatcontaining
Russianoperations.
InPolitico,formerStateDepartmentofficialFredericHofrecentlyadvocatedarobustUSresponsetoanydeliberate
Russianprovocation:"ButifRussiaseeksoutarmedconfrontationwiththeUnitedStatesinSyria,itwouldbeamistake
forWashingtontobackdown,"Hofwrote.
"Peoplelike[RussianpresidentVladimir]Putinwillpushuntiltheyhitsteel."
There'salreadybeenonealarmingincident:AccordingtoAFP,RussiaannouncedonOctober14thatoneofitsplanes
hadapproachedaUSaircraftoverSyria"foridentificationpurposes,"withoneRussianofficialexplainingthatRussian
aircraft"oftencomewithinvisualrecognitiondistanceofUSwarplanesanddrones."
SowhatwouldhappenifRussianandUSaircraftbeganshootingatoneanotheroverSyria?
(Sukhoi)
ARussianSu-35Flanker.
Oneplausibleanswercomesfromanunlikelysource:DavidE.Hoffman's"TheBillionDollarSpy,"agrippingaccountof
ColdWarspyAdolfTolkachev.
Intheearlyandmid-1980s,Tolkachev,whowastheheadofaSovietweapons-researchlaboratory,gavetheCIA
specificationsforthenextdecade'sworthofSovietcombat-aircraftradarsystems.
"TheamazingthingisthatTolkachovwasbringingusnotonlywhatwashappeningnowbutwhatwouldbehappening10
yearsfromnow,"HoffmantoldBusinessInsiderinaninterviewearlierthisyear.

TolkachevallowedUSmilitaryplannerstopeerintothefutureofSovietaircraftcapabilities.
SincetheSovietUnionwastheUS'primaryconventionalfoe,thatinformationledtheUStobuildspecificcounter-
capabilitiesintoitsownaircraftwaysofevadingadvancedSovietaircraftradarorofexploitinggapsinradarcoverage.
"Thisintelligencewentrightintoelectronicsthatweredeployed,butnevermentionedinanyonesNationalIntelligence
Estimate,"HoffmanexplainedtoBusinessInsider.
ThistechnologicalandintelligenceedgeisoneofthereasonsfortheUS'aerialsuperiorityoverSoviet-built
combataircraftsincethefalloftheSovietUnion.
Duringthe1991GulfWar,whilein"directaerialcombatoverIraq,theUSAirForcedownedeverySoviet-builttactical
fighterthatitconfronted,"Hoffmanwrites,eventhoughtheywerebeingflownbypilotsfromwhatwasthenoneofthe
mostformidablemilitariesintheMiddleEastatthetime.
USpilotshadasimilarlyperfectrecordwhenfacingoffagainstYugoslavia'sSoviet-builtaircraftandairdefensesduring
the1990sBalkanconflicts.
"Therecordisstark,"Hoffmanwrites."ForeverysixenemyaircraftairforcepilotsshotdowninKorea,theUnitedStates
lostone.InVietnam,theUnitedStateslostoneairplaneforeverytwoenemyplanesshotdown.
"Thus,thekillratioswentfromsixtooneinKorea,andtwotooneinVietnam,to48-to-zerofortheairforceinthewarsin
IraqandtheBalkans."
AsapartialresultofTolkachev'sespionage,"TheUnitedStateshasenjoyedalmosttotalairsuperiorityoverSoviet-built
fightersformorethantwodecades,"hewrites.
ThetechnicalsuperioritythatTolkachev'sespionageenabledhasapplicationsinthepresentday,insituationswhereUS
aircraftmightcomeintoconflictwithSovietfightersbuiltinthe1980sandearly1990s.Butitcouldconceivablyextendto
planesbuiltafterthatperiodaswell.
l.
(ISW)
EvensomeofthemostadvancedRussianaircraftbegantheirdevelopmenteitherattheendofSovietperiodorinthe
immediatepost-Sovietperiod,whencommunist-erastatedefenseinstituteswereoftenleftintact.
Forinstance,theSu-34FullbackmultirolefighterjetfourofwhicharecurrentlyinSyriafirstflewin1990,although
theplanedidn'tofficiallyenterserviceuntil2014.RussiaalsohasSu-30FlankersinSyria.
BothplanesaredescendantsoftheSU-27multirolefighter,theradarspecificationsofwhichwerefullyknowntoUS
militaryplanners,thankstoTolkachev.
HoffmanspeculatedtoBusinessInsiderthatsomeofTolkachev'sinformationisstillrelevanttoUSnationalsecurity.
"IstillthinktherearebigpartsofwhatTolkachevdeliveredthatarestillinuseandthatarelegitimatelystillclassified,"
Hoffmansaid."Eventhoughthiscaseisthreedecadesold,itsquitelikelythatsomeofthatstuffisstillconsideredpretty
valuableintelligence."
Tolkachev'sinformationhelpedtheUSdominatetheskiesinearlieroperationsagainstSoviet-builtfighters.Andifthere's
shootingoverSyria,anintelligenceoperationfromtheColdWar'scriticalfinaldecademightcomeinhandyalloveragain.
NOWWATCH:HowastrugglingSovietspybecamethemostpowerfulmaninRussia
Senttime: 10/19/201510:26:31AM
FW:[IT'STHEECONOMY,ST*PID......ANDDEFENSETOO!!!]FROMUK'SDAILYTELEGRAPH:Russiaretreatstoautarkyaspoverty
Subject:
looms.......FOMTHEBUS.INSIDER:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafightwithUSplanesoverSyria!!
Sent:Sunday,October18,20156:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[IT'STHEECONOMY,ST*PID......ANDDEFENSETOO!!!]FROMUK'SDAILYTELEGRAPH:Russiaretreatstoautarkyas
povertylooms.......FOMTHEBUS.INSIDER:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafightwithUSplanesover
Syria!!
Subject:[IT'STHEECONOMY,ST*PID......ANDDEFENSETOO!!!]FROMUK'SDAILYTELEGRAPH:Russiaretreats
toautarkyaspovertylooms.......FOMTHEBUS.INSIDER:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafight
withUSplanesoverSyria!!
Subject:Russiaretreatstoautarkyaspovertylooms>MoreBluntly.....RussiaisrunningoutofmoneyBGTIME-WD
wderzko@pathcom.com
Russiaretreatstoautarkyaspovertylooms
VladimirPutinisfallingbackonSoviet-eraself-relianceasoilwealthevaporatesandsanctionscut
offvitally-neededtechnology
551 119 0 15 685
Email
A1948propagandapostershowingStalinsurroundedbyadmirersandreading'LonglivetheKomsomolgeneration!'Photo:
Alamy
ByAmbroseEvans-Pritchard,Moscow4:23PMBST18Oct2015
400CommentsRussiaisrunningoutof
money.PresidentVladimirPutinistakingastrategicgamble,depletingtheKremlin'slastreservefunds
tocoverthebudgetandtopayforanescalatingwarinSyriaatthesametime.
Thethreebigratingagencieshaveallissuedalertsoverrecentdays,warningthatthecountry'spublic
financesaredeterioratingfastandfuriously.ThereisnoprospectofanoilrevivalaslongasSaudi
Arabiacontinuestofloodthemarket.Russiacannotborrowabroadataviablecost.
Standard&Poor'ssaysthebudgetdeficitwillballoonto4.4pcofGDPthisyear,includingshort-fallsinlocal
governmentspendingandsocialsecurity.Thegovernmenthascommittedafurther$40bntobailingoutthe
bankingsystem.
Deficitsonthisscalearemanageableforricheconomieswithdeepcapitalmarkets.ItisanotherstoryforRussia
inthemidstofacommodityslumpandageopoliticalshowdownwiththeWest.Oilandgasrevenuescoverhalfthe
budget.
"Theycan'taffordtorundeficitsatall.Bytheendofnextyeartherewontbeanymoneyleftintheoilreservefund,"
saidLubomirMitovfromUnicredit.Thefinanceministryadmitsthatthefundswillbeexhaustedwithinsixteen
monthsoncurrentpolicies.
AlexeiKudrin,theformerfinanceminister,saidtheKremlinhasnomeansofraisinglargeloanstorideouttheoil
bust.Thepoolofinternalsavingsispitifullysmall.
Anyattempttoraisefundsfromthebankingsystemwouldaggravatethecreditcrunch.Hedescribedthelatest
effortstosqueezemoremoneyoutofRussia'senergycompaniesasthe"endoftheroad".
MrKudrinresignedin2011inprotestoverRussia'smilitarybuild-up,fearingthatitwouldtestpublicfinancesto
breakingpoint.Eventsareunfoldingmuchashesuggested.
Russiaispressingaheadwithmassiverearmament,pushingdefencespendingtowards5pcofGDPandrisking
thesortofmilitaryoverstretchthatbankruptedtheSovietUnion.
TheStockholmInternationalPeaceResearchInstitutesaidthemilitarybudgetfor2014rose8.1pcinrealterms
to$84bnastheKremlintookdeliveryofnewSu-34long-rangecombataircraftandS-400surface-to-airmissile
systems.
Itistorisebyanother15pcthisyear,ledbya60pcsurgeinarmsprocurement.Thisisanastonishingambitionat
atimewhentheeconomyisindeepcrisis,contractingby4.6pcoverthelasttwelvemonths.
MrPutinpairedbacktheplansearlierthisyearbuthassincerestoredtheoriginaltarget,tellingaVTBCapital
forumthisweekthattheeconomyhashitbottomand"thingsarelookingup."
DiplomatssaytherealityisthatwarsinSyriaandUkraineareeatingintothebudget.Cruisemissilesarenot
cheap.
MrPutinknowshecannotcountonoilandgasanylonger,belatedlyrecognizingthatshaletechnologyintheUS
threatenstocapcrudepricesforadecadeormore,andhaseffectivelydestroyedRussia'spetro-powerbusiness
model.
TheKremlinhasgonebacktothedrawingboard,workingfromtheSpartanassumptionthatoilwillremainstuckat
$50abarrelforthenextthreeyears.
Itcouldbeevenworse.Russia'scentralbankwarnedinareportthatitmaytake$30oiltostoptheUSshale
juggernaut.
Thecentralbanksriskscenariotalksofaneweraofsub-$40crudethatwouldentrenchthecurrentdepression.
Undertheseconditions,GDPcouldfallbymorethan5pcin2016,itsaid.
MrPutinclaimstohaveanaceuphissleeve:Russiawillfallbackonindustrialself-relianceandimport
substitution.Ourpoliciesarenotfrozen.Theyadapttocircumstances,hesaid.
TheKremlinislaunchingaradicalplantoslashimportsacrosstwentykeysectorswithinfiveyears,rangingfrom
heavymachinerytoelectricalengineering,photonics,cars,tractors,chemicals,pharmaceuticals,andfood.
Thetargetsaredrastic.Relianceonforeignfarmandforestrymachineryistobecutby56pc,foodprocessingby
53pc,andengineeringequipmentby34pc.Stateprocurementcontractswillbesteeredtocompaniesthat
produceinthecountry,whetherornottheycompeteonquality.
Buttheswitch-overcostsmoneythatthegovernmentdoesnothave.ViktorSemenovfromtheBelayaDacha
Groupsaidhisagro-conglomerateisrakinginbigsubsidiestogrowlettucesintheSiberianheartlandof
Novosibirsk,relyingonheatedgreenhousestofighttemperaturesofminus20degrees.
"We'rebuilding250hectaresofhothousesayearonmyfarms,"hesaid.Whetheritmakessenseisanybody's
guess.ThesamevegetablescouldbeimportedmorecheaplyfromTurkey.
Tradeexpertsarealreadyshakingtheirheads.Suchareflexusuallymeansacountryisgoingbadlyofftherails,
thoughGermanypulleditoffwithmacabresuccessinthe1930s.InmostofthecasesIhaveknownimport
substitutionpolicieshavefailed.Theydegradetheeconomy,"saidPascalLamy,formerheadoftheWorldTrade
Organisation.
Russiahaspocketsofexcellence-currentlyondisplayintheSyriantheatre-buttheengineeringandindustrial
baseoftheSovieterahaslargelybeenhollowedoutbyanovervaluedroubleduringthecommodityboom.
IthasbeenatextbookcaseoftheDutchDisease.Manyofthebestengineersandtechnicianshaveemigratedin
achronicbrain-drain.Russianeconomistssayitisfarfromclearwhetherthecountrycansuddenlypirouetteand
manufacturethemachinesitself.
VladislavInozemtsev,fromtheCenterforPost-IndustrialStudiesinMoscow,saidthelikelyoutcomeisaretreat
intoautarkyandpauperiseddecline,endinginwithdrawalfromtheglobaltradingsystem.Thiswayleadsus
towardsaquasi-Sovieteconomydetachedfromtheworldand,atthesametime,proudofitsautarkytowardsa
deterioratingeconomywhichcompensatesforthedropinlivingstandardswithpervasivepropaganda,hewrote.
MrPutiniscountingona50pcdevaluationsinceearly2014torestorelostcompetitivenessandignitea
manufacturingrenaissance.Havingpresidedoveradestructively-strongroubleforadecade,hehasnow
embracedthevirtuesofaweakcurrencywiththezealoftheconverted.
OlegDeripaska,chiefofthealuminiumgroupRusal,saiditiswishfulthinkingtosupposethatacheaproublecan
kick-startaneconomycaughtinatangleofred-tape,cryingoutforroot-and-branchreformandtheruleoflaw.
Weshouldstoplookingattheexchangerateandgivesomethoughttotheeconomicpolicywereallyneed.
Nobodyisgoingtoborrowat12pcinhardcurrencytoinvest,hesaid.
ThechiefeffecthasbeentoshrinktheRussianeconomyinglobalterms.GDPwas$2.3trillionatthepeak.Itis
now$1.2trillion,andIfearwearegoingbacktothelevelof1998whenitwas$700bn,hesaid.
ThiswouldbesmallerthanHolland($850bn)orhalfthesizeofTexas($1.4trillion),aremarkablestateofaffairsfor
acountryvyingforsuperpowermilitarystatusinEuropeandtheMiddleEast.
IgorSechin,theheadofoilgiantRosneft,saiddevaluationisafalsestrategy,addingsarcasticallythatifitwasso
goodtohalvetheroublefrom30to60againstthedollar,whynotjustkeepgoingandpushitallthewayto100.
Thatwouldbeadreamwouldntit?hesaid.
Inasense,MrPutinhaslittlechoice.Hecannotaffordburnthroughforeignreservestodefendtherouble.They
havealreadyfallenfrom$520bnto$371bn.Standard&Poor'ssaidtwo-fifthsofthismoneyisear-markedfor
otherfunctionsandcannotbedeemed"usable".
Thesereserveslooklargeonpaperbutareneartheminimumsafelevelsneededtoupholdconfidenceandto
coverforeigndebtredemptionsofRussiancompanies,runningat$12bnto$15bnaquarter.
WhatisclearisthatRussiasattempttoreinventitselfasanindustrialtigerwilltakeyearstobearfruit,ititis
possibleatall.Theearlyevidenceisdismal,thoughFordhasannouncedthatitwillstartbuildingenginesforthe
FiestalaterthisyearatitsRussianjointventureinElabuga.
Non-energyexportsplungedby25pcinthethirdquarter.Thisisavividillustrationoftheeconomysdeep
recessionandlackofcompetitiveness,saidEldarVakhitovfromBNPParibas.
Theoretically,roubleweaknessshouldhavesupportedcompetitivenessofnon-oilexportsinreality,itdidnothelp
atall,hesaid.Russia'scapitalstockissobadlyerodedthatthedevaluationmayleakintopricerisesand
'stagflation'withoutboostingoutput.
ElviraNabiullina,thecentralbankgovernor,saidthefloatingroublehadactedasshockabsorberwhenthecrisis
hit.Itisapre-conditionforrecovery,butisnotenoughinitselfwithoutdeepreform.Wehavetoswallowthebitter
pill,shesaid.
Whatisdisturbingisthatcompanieshaveseenariseinwindfallprofitsofalmost40pcthisyearfromdevaluation
butinvestmenthasdroppedby6.7pc.Theyarepayingoffdebtandbatteningdownthehatchesinstead.Whyare
theynotinvesting?ThisisthemainquestionforeconomicpolicyinRussia,shesaidattheVTBCapitalforum.
PollssuggestthatMrPutinremainspopularbutthefullforceofthecrisishasonlystartedtohithome,andhecan
nolongerkeepputtingoffthechoicebetweengunsandbutter.Realincomeshavedroppedby9.8pcoverthelast
year.Foodpriceshavejumped17pc.
IvanStarikov,theformerdeputyeconomyminister,saidthetrueinflationrateisnear30pc.Wearerapidly
approachingthefatefulmarkwhereof50pcoftheaverageRussianfamily'sincomewillbespentonfood.We
haveagainbecomeacountryofpoorpeople,hesaid.
From:VRT
Date:Sun,Oct18,2015at12:28AM
Subject:Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwanttopickafightwithUSplanesoverSyria
To:
Here'sonesurprisingreasonRussiamightnotwantto
pickafightwithUSplanesoverSyria

ByArminRosenOctober17,201510:54AM
TheskiesoverSyriaaredangerouslycrowdedthesedayswiththeUS,Russia,andtheAssadregimeallbombing
variousactorsonvaguelyoppositesidesofthecountry'smultidimensionalconflict.
InbothIraqandSyria,therealityofoverlappingaerialoperationsamongcountrieswithlittlegeopoliticalfondnesstoward
oneanotherhasalreadyledtoclaimsthatBritishaircrafthavebeenauthorizedtoengageRussianaircraftoverIraqif
threatened.
TheBritishgovernmentdeniedthesereports,buttheystillunderscorethepossibilityofconfrontationbetweenalliedand
Russianmilitaryaircraft.
Severalpresidentialcandidates,includingDemocraticfront-runnerandformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,have
calledforanallied-enforcedno-flyzoneinnorthernSyriaadevelopmentthatwouldbepartlyaimedatcontaining
Russianoperations.
InPolitico,formerStateDepartmentofficialFredericHofrecentlyadvocatedarobustUSresponsetoanydeliberate
Russianprovocation:"ButifRussiaseeksoutarmedconfrontationwiththeUnitedStatesinSyria,itwouldbeamistake
forWashingtontobackdown,"Hofwrote.
"Peoplelike[RussianpresidentVladimir]Putinwillpushuntiltheyhitsteel."
There'salreadybeenonealarmingincident:AccordingtoAFP,RussiaannouncedonOctober14thatoneofitsplanes
hadapproachedaUSaircraftoverSyria"foridentificationpurposes,"withoneRussianofficialexplainingthatRussian
aircraft"oftencomewithinvisualrecognitiondistanceofUSwarplanesanddrones."
SowhatwouldhappenifRussianandUSaircraftbeganshootingatoneanotheroverSyria?
(Sukhoi)
ARussianSu-35Flanker.
Oneplausibleanswercomesfromanunlikelysource:DavidE.Hoffman's"TheBillionDollarSpy,"agrippingaccountof
ColdWarspyAdolfTolkachev.
Intheearlyandmid-1980s,Tolkachev,whowastheheadofaSovietweapons-researchlaboratory,gavetheCIA
specificationsforthenextdecade'sworthofSovietcombat-aircraftradarsystems.
"TheamazingthingisthatTolkachovwasbringingusnotonlywhatwashappeningnowbutwhatwouldbehappening10
yearsfromnow,"HoffmantoldBusinessInsiderinaninterviewearlierthisyear.

TolkachevallowedUSmilitaryplannerstopeerintothefutureofSovietaircraftcapabilities.
SincetheSovietUnionwastheUS'primaryconventionalfoe,thatinformationledtheUStobuildspecificcounter-
capabilitiesintoitsownaircraftwaysofevadingadvancedSovietaircraftradarorofexploitinggapsinradarcoverage.
"Thisintelligencewentrightintoelectronicsthatweredeployed,butnevermentionedinanyonesNationalIntelligence
Estimate,"HoffmanexplainedtoBusinessInsider.
ThistechnologicalandintelligenceedgeisoneofthereasonsfortheUS'aerialsuperiorityoverSoviet-built
combataircraftsincethefalloftheSovietUnion.
Duringthe1991GulfWar,whilein"directaerialcombatoverIraq,theUSAirForcedownedeverySoviet-builttactical
fighterthatitconfronted,"Hoffmanwrites,eventhoughtheywerebeingflownbypilotsfromwhatwasthenoneofthe
mostformidablemilitariesintheMiddleEastatthetime.
USpilotshadasimilarlyperfectrecordwhenfacingoffagainstYugoslavia'sSoviet-builtaircraftandairdefensesduring
the1990sBalkanconflicts.
"Therecordisstark,"Hoffmanwrites."ForeverysixenemyaircraftairforcepilotsshotdowninKorea,theUnitedStates
lostone.InVietnam,theUnitedStateslostoneairplaneforeverytwoenemyplanesshotdown.
"Thus,thekillratioswentfromsixtooneinKorea,andtwotooneinVietnam,to48-to-zerofortheairforceinthewarsin
IraqandtheBalkans."
AsapartialresultofTolkachev'sespionage,"TheUnitedStateshasenjoyedalmosttotalairsuperiorityoverSoviet-built
fightersformorethantwodecades,"hewrites.
ThetechnicalsuperioritythatTolkachev'sespionageenabledhasapplicationsinthepresentday,insituationswhereUS
aircraftmightcomeintoconflictwithSovietfightersbuiltinthe1980sandearly1990s.Butitcouldconceivablyextendto
planesbuiltafterthatperiodaswell.
l.
(ISW)
EvensomeofthemostadvancedRussianaircraftbegantheirdevelopmenteitherattheendofSovietperiodorinthe
immediatepost-Sovietperiod,whencommunist-erastatedefenseinstituteswereoftenleftintact.
Forinstance,theSu-34FullbackmultirolefighterjetfourofwhicharecurrentlyinSyriafirstflewin1990,although
theplanedidn'tofficiallyenterserviceuntil2014.RussiaalsohasSu-30FlankersinSyria.
BothplanesaredescendantsoftheSU-27multirolefighter,theradarspecificationsofwhichwerefullyknowntoUS
militaryplanners,thankstoTolkachev.
HoffmanspeculatedtoBusinessInsiderthatsomeofTolkachev'sinformationisstillrelevanttoUSnationalsecurity.
"IstillthinktherearebigpartsofwhatTolkachevdeliveredthatarestillinuseandthatarelegitimatelystillclassified,"
Hoffmansaid."Eventhoughthiscaseisthreedecadesold,itsquitelikelythatsomeofthatstuffisstillconsideredpretty
valuableintelligence."
Tolkachev'sinformationhelpedtheUSdominatetheskiesinearlieroperationsagainstSoviet-builtfighters.Andifthere's
shootingoverSyria,anintelligenceoperationfromtheColdWar'scriticalfinaldecademightcomeinhandyalloveragain.
NOWWATCH:HowastrugglingSovietspybecamethemostpowerfulmaninRussia
Senttime: 10/18/201512:30:47AM
To: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Subject: TheBestManAmongUsbyJonathanFreedland|TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/may/21/tony-judt-best-man-among-us/
TheBestManAmongUs
WhentheFactsChange:Essays,19952010
byTonyJudt,editedandwithanintroductionbyJenniferHomans
Penguin,386pp.,$29.95
1.
Morethanadecadeago,ImetTonyJudtforthefirsttime.WedrankwhiskeyinthelobbyofasmartLondonhotel.He
lookedalittleoutofplace:thescholaramongtheexpensivelydressedinternationalbusinessmenandwomen,avisiting
AmericanprofessorwhowasalsoaformerLondoner,bornandraisedinsomeofthecitysshabbiestneighborhoods.
GinaLeVay/ReduxTonyJudt,NewYorkCity,
2006
Onlyafewmonthsearlier,inOctober2003,TheNewYorkReviewhadpublishedJudtsbest-knownor,moreaccurately,
mostnotoriousessay,Israel:TheAlternative.TherehehaddeclaredtheMiddleEastpeaceprocessdead,andtheprospect
ofatwo-statesolutiontotheIsraelPalestineconflictburiedalongwithit.Itwastime,hehadargued,tothinkafresh,even
toturntowardthenotionofasinglestateinhistoricPalestine,onethatwouldbeasecularhometobothJewsandArabs.
Yes,itwouldmeanthedissolutionoftheJewishstateandanendtotheZionistmovementthathadgivenitbirth.But
perhapstherewasnolongeraplaceintheworldforsuchastate.SurelyIsraelhadbecomeananachronism.Andnotjust
ananachronismbutadysfunctionalone.
ThatessayhadbroughttheroofdownonJudtshead.Hewasnotonlydenouncedinthemostvicioustermsbytheusual
suspectsontheAmericanJewishrightandbarredfromspeakingonatleastoneoccasion,butalsocondemnedbyformer
friendsandallies.HehadbeenacontributingeditoratTheNewRepublicbutsuddenlyfoundhisnameremovedfromthe
masthead.AonetimeactivistinaZionistyouthmovement,avolunteerduringIsraels1967warwhohadputhisHebrewto
useasatranslator,JudtwasnowdeclaredbyIsraelsmostunbendingcheerleaderstobeanonperson.
Itstruckmeatthetimethathiscriticsweremisreadingtheessay,orattheveryleastmisunderstandingitsintent.Akindof
confirmationcamewhenIaskedJudtifhewouldhavepublishedthatsamepiecenotinTheNewYorkReviewbutinitsUK
counterpart,theLondonReviewofBooks.Hepaused,thinkingthroughtheimplications,andfinallysaidno,hewouldnot.
ThesimpleexplanationwasthatJudtunderstoodthecontrastintheclimateofopinionbetweenthetwocountries.InBritain
(andEurope)hostilitytoIsraelwasalreadydeeplyentrenched:ArielSharonhadrecentlyreincurredthedeepenmityof
mainstreamliberalopinion,notleastthroughhiscrushingofthesecondintifada.IntheUS,inNewYorkespecially,the
prevailingassumptionswereinIsraelsfavor.Indeed,ablanketofcomplacencyandunquestioningsolidaritytendedto
muffleanygenuinedebate.Inasubsequentexchangeinthesepages,whereJudttookonseveralofhisantagonists,he
wrote:
ThesolutiontothecrisisintheMiddleEastliesinWashington.Onthisthereiswidespreadagreement.For
thatreason,andbecausetheAmericanresponsetotheIsraelPalestineconflictisshapedinlargemeasureby
domesticconsiderations,myessaywasdirectedinthefirstinstancetoanAmericanaudience,inaneffortto
pryopenaclosedtopic.[myitalics]
Inthesameparagraph,JudtaddedthathewasveryworriedaboutthedirectioninwhichtheAmericanJewishcommunity
ismoving.Itseemedtomethathisessay,andespeciallyitsvehemence,wasdesignedtostirUSJewsfromtheirlethargy.
(InBritainandEurope,thetopicwasfarfromclosedandhardlyneededpryingopen.)Viewedlikethat,Israel:An
Alternativewaslessadetailedstatementofbinationalismthanaprovocation,forcingUSsupportersofIsraeltoconfront
whatthedeathofthetwo-statesolutionwouldentail.Inthatsameexchange,Judtconcededthathewashardlyofferingan
immediatepolicyprescription:
WhenIwroteofbinationalismasanalternativefuture,Imeantjustthat.Itisnotasolutionfortomorrow.
Iftheproblemwithatwo-statesolutionisthatIsraelsrulerswontmakethenecessarysacrificestoachieve
it,howmuchlesswouldtheybewillingtosacrificeIsraelsuniquelyJewishidentity?Forthepresent,then,
binationalism,isasIacknowledgedinmyessayutopian.
ThatencounterintheLondonhotellobbyofferedaglimpseofacrucialaspectofJudtscharacter:hisrefusaltosurrender
todogma.Anideologuewouldhaveinsistedthatthetruthwasthetruthwasthetruthandthattherecouldbenoadjustment
forcontext.ButJudtunderstoodthatthesameargumentcouldhavedifferentmeaningsindifferentsituations,thateventhe
mostfirmlyheldprincipleshadtotakeaccountofvariationsintimeorplace,andthat,sometimes,apositionhadtoshift.
FreedomfromdogmaisthegoldenthreadthatrunsthroughWhentheFactsChange,acollectionofJudtsessaysmany
ofthemfirstpublishedinTheNewYorkReviewfrom1995untilhisprematuredeathin2010,agedsixty-two,fromLou
Gehrigsdisease.Thevolumeisstaggeringlybroadinitsrange,testamenttotheextraordinaryeclecticismofJudtsinterests
andknowledge.HewriteslearnedlyonIsrael,France,Britain,theUnitedStates,CentralEurope,theHolocaust,social
democracy,andmuchelse.Heisabletoanalyzebothcontemporarypoliticsandmodernhistorywithdeeperudition.There
areprofilesofPolishintellectualsalongsidedemolitionsofBush-eraforeignpolicy,hymnstothegloriesoftherailwaysnext
todetailedsurveysofEuropeanwelfarespending.
Thecommonelementisintellectualpragmatism.Thetitle,apparentlychosenbyJudtsyoungson,referstotheriposte
regularlyattributedtoJohnMaynardKeynesandcitedoftenbytheauthor:Whenthefactschange,Ichangemymind.
Whatdoyoudo,sir?
ThatthiswasaJudtmantrawelearnfromatender,affectingintroductionwrittenbythebookseditorandJudtswidow,
JenniferHomans.Heropeninglinepromisestoseparatethemanfromtheideas.Butthepiecehastheoppositeeffect.Her
sketchofJudt,depictinghimasbothascholarincludingafascinatingaccountofhiswritingmethod,downtothecolor-
codedresearchnotesandahusband,servestorootwhatfollowsinlivedexperience,toacknowledgetherolethatJudts
personalhistoryplayedinhisthinking.ItswhollyfittingsincethistooisaJudttheme.Throughoutthecollection,itisclear
thathedidnotseeideasasexistinginsomerealmofpureabstraction,butunderstoodthatpeople,individualsasmuchas
nations,holdideasasaconsequenceofthelivestheyhaveled.
Inthatsenseitisilluminatingratherthanindulgentforhertorecallthewayadomesticdisputebetweenthemoverthesale
ofanunwantedhouseinPrincetonwasresolved.Hehadwantedtokeepit,untilHomanslaidoutthefactsina
spreadsheet:
Commutertrainschedules,fares,totalhoursspentatPennStation,theworks.Hestudieditcarefullyand
agreedonthespottosellthehouse.Noregrets,noremorse,norecriminations,nofurtherdiscussion
necessary.Whenthefactschangedwhenabetter,moreconvincingargumentwasmadehereallydid
changehismindandmoveon.
ThisisthelensthroughwhichtoviewJudtscommentaryonIsrael,includingtheinfamous2003essay.Headjustedhis
positioninthelightofthefacts.Fordecadeshehadbeenanadvocateoftwostates,yetseeingtheexpandingprojectof
JewishsettlementintheoccupiedterritoriesthatwouldeventuallyhavetobecomeaPalestinianstate,heconcludedthat
Israelwasnotreadytotakeeventheminimalstepsrequiredtomakesuchanoutcomepossible.Accordingly,helookedfor
otheroptions.Oneofthosewasbinationalism,butheretoohewasreadytobeswayedbythefacts.In2009,hewrotethat
hemightstillfavoraone-statesolutionifIwerenotsosurethatbothsideswouldopposeitvigorouslyandwithforce.A
two-statesolutionmightstillbethebestcompromise.
Asiftoprovetheenduringpowerofthe2003essay,atleastonereviewofthisposthumouscollectionhasfocusedonthat
singlepiecealmostexclusively,failingtotakeaccountofJudtspostscriptontheaffairorhissubsequentwritingonthe
topiccontainedintheverysamevolume.Thisisnotjustquestionablepractice,italsomissessomethingessentialabout
Judtswork:hewasnopeddlerofpickleddogmas,resellingthesame,unchangingideasinonearticleafteranother.Hewas
constantlythinkingoutloud,interrogatinghisearlierpositions,andalteringtheminthelightofchangingevents.Itmeans
thatanyreadercomingtothisanthologylookingforafixedprogramororderedmanifestowillbedisappointed.
WhichisnottosaythatJudtswritingswerenotguidedbyacoherentsetofprinciples.Foronething,resistancetodogma
was,forhim,almostanideologyinitself.Itledhimtoloathetotalitarianisminallitsforms.Helocatedfascismandthe
horrorsofNazismatthecenterofthetwentiethcentury,castingtheirshadowoverallthatfollowed.Heechoedand
endorsedHannahArendtsinsistencethattheproblemofevilwouldbethedefiningquestionofthepostwareraandhe
wrestleswithitinthiscollectionmorethanonce.
Ofcourseforaliberalhistorian,borninBritainwithalatercareerintheUS,tobeunwaveringinhiscondemnationof
Hitlerswickednessinvolvednorisk.WhereJudtshowedcouragewasinhiswillingnesstolookatmonstrouscrimes
committedinthenameoftheleft.HeisacidinhisdenunciationofStalinistmurderandunforgivingofthoseleftistswho
werereadytolooktheotherwayormakeexcuses.
Thefirstpieceinthiscollectionassesses,forexample,thereveredBritishMarxisthistorianEricHobsbawm.Judtadmires
theoldermansscholarshipbutlamentshisfailure,asJudtputitinanearlieressay(republishedinthe2008collection
Reappraisals),tostareevilinthefaceandcallitbyitsname.HecondemnsHobsbawmforremainingstuckinthe1930s,
forfailingtoshakeofftheoldManichaeancategoriesthatequatedleft/right,Communist/Fascist,and
progressive/reactionarywithgood/evil.Hadhedoneso,Judtargues,hewouldhaveseenwherefascismandSoviet
communismcametoresembleeachother.
PlentyofyouthfulMarxistswentthroughJudtsprocessofdisenchantmentandendedupfarontheotherside,reinvented
ashawkishanti-Communistsandneoconservatives.Judtmadenosuchmove:hewouldnottradeonedogmaforanother.
Indeed,hewasasternopponentoftheBushadministrationanditstramplingoninternationalnorms.Buthestakedouta
liberalterrainofhisown,beholdentoneithertheanti-WesternleftnortheAmerica-firstright.SohecouldslamDonald
RumsfeldandDickCheney,blamingthemfor,amongotherthings,shrinkingthepowerofAmericasexampleandtherefore
riskingitsappealtothefreenationsoftheworld:
HenriCartier-Bresson/MagnumPhotosAlbertCamus,Paris,1944
ThiswouldspelltheendoftheWestaswehaveunderstooditforhalfacentury.ThepostwarNorth
Atlanticcommunityofinterestandmutualfriendshipwasunprecedentedandinvaluable:itslosswouldbea
disasterforeveryone.
ThatsnotasentenceonecanimaginebeingwrittenbyNoamChomsky.NotthatJudtwasmerelyanexponent,however
eloquent,ofthesoggycenterground.Hisstanceagainsttheextremes,theeasybinariesofhardleftorhardright,was
stronglyheldandforcefullyargued.Forhimpragmatismwasahumanecreed,compromiseitselfanideal.Thealternative
wasanabsolutismthatcouldonlybesecuredbyblood.
Inthefinalyearofhislife,bythenaquadriplegicandreliantonawkwardbreathingequipment,hedeliveredalectureat
NewYorkUniversitythatamountedtoaspiriteddefenseofsocialdemocracy,anideabatteredbythreedecadesofthe
Thatcher-Reaganmodel.Hepleadedforahalttotheunravelingofthewelfarestateandthepublicsector,builtso
painstakinglythroughthepostwaryears:
Thattheseaccomplishmentswerenomorethanpartialshouldnottroubleus.Ifwehavelearnednothingelse
fromthetwentiethcentury,weshouldatleasthavegraspedthatthemoreperfecttheanswer,themore
terrifyingitsconsequences.Imperfectimprovementsuponunsatisfactorycircumstancesarethebestthatwe
canhopefor,andprobablyallweshouldseek.
Perfection,heunderstood,wasthegoalofmurderousdictators.Theunglamorous,bloodlessbusinessofmodest
ameliorationwasabetterideal.
ThatmuchisclearinJudtspantheonofheroes.Homansliststhem,takingcaretosaytheywerenotquiteheroesbutrather
shadeswhowereallaroundallthetime.Amongthem:Keynes,IsaiahBerlin,RaymondAron,A.J.P.Taylor,Albert
Camus,whosephotosatonhisdesk,and,inevitably,GeorgeOrwell.Thiscollectionincludesencomiatosomeofthose
andthesameadmiredtraitsrecur.HepraisesTaylorforawillingnesstowriteagainstthegrainofhisownprejudices.His
eulogyforLeszekKoakowskilaudsthePolishthinkersabilitytorejectMarxismwithoutconcludingeitherthatsocialism
hadbeenanunmitigateddisasterorthattherewasnopointinstrivingtoimprovetheconditionofhumanity.Judtvalued
thosewho,likehim,soughttosavethebabyevenastheychuckedoutbucketloadsofbathwater.
Inthemid-1990s,bothBillClintonandTonyBlairwerefondofspeakingofthevitalcenter.Thephraseoftensounded
hollow,asemptyasthethirdway.ButtoreadJudtistoseethatitcancontainmeaning.Itcanrefertoskepticisminthe
faceofdogmaarefusaltobelievethatbecauseonepartofaprogramhasmeritsorflaws,theentireprogramhastobe
acceptedorrejectedanabilitytocontainmoralcomplexity,toadmitandinterrogateonesowncontradictions.InTony
Judt,thenotionofthevitalcenterfoundlife.
2.
Thequestionthathangsoveranyanthologyofjournalism,evenoneofthehighestquality,isalwaysthesame:What
relevancedoesithavefortoday?InJudtscasetheeasyansweristopointtoevidenceofuncannyprescience.Hisessay
Europe:TheGrandIllusion,isatypicalexample.Itwaswrittenin1996,threeyearsbeforethelaunchoftheeuroina
periodferventwithexcitedeurofederalism.Itwaswrittenbyamanfreeofthesulking,LittleEnglanderintroversionsof
manyofhisfellowBrits:JudtspokeFrench,German,Italian,Czech,andsomeSpanishandhadmadehisnameasa
historianofFrance.Hehadonlyjustestablished,in1995,theRemarqueInstitute,dedicatedtobringingEuropeandhis
newlyadoptedhome,theUnitedStates,closertogether.Ifanyonecouldhavebeenexpectedtobeaeuroenthusiast,itwas
surelyTonyJudt.
Yetin1996hewasfullofrealismandcaution.Thepoliticsofimmigrationwillnotsoonsubside,hewrote,readingthe
runescorrectly.Asitexpanded,theEuropeanUnionwasrapidlydividingintowinnersandlosers,henoted,describing
accuratelythesituationthatobtainsnow,nearlytwodecadeslater.Thelosers,hewarned,wouldturntonationalism.Right
again.
Still,itsnotforhispowersofprophecythatpeoplecontinuetolooktoJudt.(AttheUkrainianCatholicUniversityinLviv,
evenascivilwarrages,thereiscurrentlyaseminarforgraduatestudentstitledsimplyReadingTonyJudt.)Iwould
suggestinsteadthreeotherfactorsthatmakehisworkstrongandenduring.
Thefirstisaconsistentfidelitytothefacts.Thebookisrichinarrestingexamplesofhardfacts,oftenaccompaniedby
numbers.WelearnthatPrimoLevisAuschwitzmemoir,IfThisIsaMan,wasseriallyrejected,eventuallypublishedbya
smalllocalpressinatinyprintrunof2,500copies,fewofwhichsold.Mostwereremaindered,storedinaFlorence
warehouse,anddestroyedinthefloodof1966.Whatbetterillustrationcouldtherebeoftheimmediatepostwarlackof
interestinsurvivorsoftheShoah?Ortakeanotherexample:thenexttimeMaaleAdumimisdescribedasaWestBank
settlement,considerthatthissettlementcomprisesmorethanthirtysquaremilesmakingitoneandahalftimesthesize
ofManhattansomesettlement.
Judtswritingradiatesscholarship:evenhisopponentscouldrarelychallengehimonthefacts.Inhishandsrigorwasa
weapon.ThebookincludesathoroughdemolitionofNormanDaviessEurope:AHistory(1996),leavingthatbookin
shreds.Buthedrawsonlyfromanarmoryoffacts,justonethathappenstobebetterstockedthanDaviess.Attheheight
ofBush-eraFrancophobiaintheprecinctsofRepublicanWashingtonwhenPariswasmockedasthecapitalofcheese-
eatingsurrendermonkeysandonlyfreedomfrieswereallowedonthemenuofthecongressionalcanteenJudt
dischargesamagazinefulloffacts:
InWorldWarI,whichtheFrenchfoughtfromstarttofinish,Francelostthreetimesasmanyfightingmen
asAmericahaslostinallitswarscombined.InWorldWarII,theFrencharmiesholdingofftheGermansin
MayJune1940suffered124,000deadand200,000woundedinsixweeks,morethanAmericadidinKorea
andVietnamcombined.UntilHitlerbroughttheUnitedStatesintothewaragainsthiminDecember1941,
WashingtonmaintainedcorrectdiplomaticrelationswiththeNaziregime.
Thereismoretothisthanjustadisplayofcopiousknowledge,thoughJudtcertainlyhadthat.Itisafaithinevidence,a
devoutempiricismthatagreestobeboundbythefactswherevertheyleadevenifthatmeanssheddingonesown
prejudicesandlettinggoofonesmostfondlyheldbeliefs.ItswhathedemandedofHobsbawmovercommunismand
himselfoverZionism.Itisinfactclosetoanideologyinitself,thisbeliefinatruththatcanbeexcavatedthroughserious,
honestinquiry.AnditpartlyexplainswhyJudtplacedsomuchweightonthenotionofgoodfaith.
Thesecondfactorcomesclosetoastatementoftheobvious.ItistonotethatthoughJudtwasacommentatoron
contemporarypoliticsandawriterofwhatisnowcalledlong-formjournalism,hiscallingwasasahistorian.Ofcourse
thatenrichedhisobservationsaboutthepresent,buttherewasmoretoitthanthat.Hewasalsoachampionofthepast,
insistentonlearningfromitandretainingfromitwhatwasworthwhile.Thatisthesentimentthatpowerstheessayon
socialdemocracy,forexample,aswellasseveralothersthatturnaretrospectiveeyeonthetwentiethcenturyasitended.
IntheheadlongrushintothefutureJudtsawhisgenerationdiscardingmuchthatitspredecessorshadcarefullybuiltand
thatwasworthsaving.
Theresultis,inmorethanafewplaces,anoteofunexpectedconservatismfromthismanoftheleft.Bringbackthe
Rails!hecriesinoneessay.AnotherspeaksofTheWreckingBallofInnovation.Approachinghisowndeath,and
perhapssurprisinghimselfasmuchasanyoneelse,hewrote,withthesocialdemocraticmodelinmind:TheLeft,tobe
quitebluntaboutit,hassomethingtoconserve.
TheweightthatJudtplacedonmemorybringsusclosertotheheartofhiswritingsenduringvalue.Thoughabletospeak
ofthegrand,sweepingforcesofhistoryorgeopolitics,heneverlostsightofthecentralityofpeopleslivedexperiencein
shapingtheirideas,attitudes,andlongings.Notthefactsontheground,writesHomans,somuchasthefactsinside
thethingsthatwerejustthere,likefurniturein[the]mind,thosethingsyoumightbumpintowithouteverseeingor
knowingthemfully.
Heappliedthatlogictohissubjects,attributingHobsbawmsrefusalfullytodisavowStalinism,forexample,tothe
historiansloyaltytohisearlieradolescentself,theboywhohadwitnessedtheCommunistsconfronttheNazi
brownshirtsinpre-warBerlin.Heappliedittonations,sothatevenwhencondemningcontemporaryIsraelisblindnessto
theoccupation,hecouldseethat,thankstotheJewishpast,intheirowneyestheyarestillasmallvictim-community,
defendingthemselveswithrestraintandreluctanceagainstoverwhelmingodds.Andheappliedittohimself,understanding
howhisownlifestoryfromhischildhoodencounterswithBritishanti-SemitismtothemultipleidentitiesofaBritish-
JewishhistorianofFrancelivinginManhattanmightcolorhisworldview.Theresultisaspiritofempathythatruns
throughhiswritings,apatiencemissinginthosecursedwithideologicalcertainty.
Yetthatempathyshouldnotbemistakenformoralrelativism,indulgingbadbehaviorastheunderstandableconsequenceof
thisorthatexperience.AfiercemoralityispresentinJudtswork,aclarityaboutrightandwrongthatleadsbacktothe
moraltouchstonethatistheHolocaust.HomanssuggeststhatJewishnesswasperhapsthemostcrucialofthefactsinside
Judt.Shewritesthatthelossofacousin,whosenamewasToni,inAuschwitzactedas
akindofblackholeinhismindweighty,incomprehensible,likeevilorthedevil,wherethismomentin
historyandthisaspectofhisJewishnesslay.
ThereisindeedandthisisthethirdfactorinexplaininghiswritingsenduringvalueamoralcentertoJudtswork,the
productperhapsofawearyknowledgeofthewickednessofwhichhumanityiscapable.Butittravelsalongsideahopefor
somethingbetterandanunderstandingoftheobstaclesinourway.JudtwroteofhisFrenchhero:Camuswasamoralist
whounhesitatinglydistinguishedgoodfromevilbutabstainedfromcondemninghumanfrailty.Thatmightbeafitting
epitaphforJudthimself,whosewise,humane,andbraveeruditionthiscollectioncapturesratherbeautifully.
WhentheFactsChange:Essays,19952010
byTonyJudt,editedandwithanintroductionbyJenniferHomans
Penguin,386pp.,$29.95
1.
Morethanadecadeago,ImetTonyJudtforthefirsttime.WedrankwhiskeyinthelobbyofasmartLondonhotel.He
lookedalittleoutofplace:thescholaramongtheexpensivelydressedinternationalbusinessmenandwomen,avisiting
AmericanprofessorwhowasalsoaformerLondoner,bornandraisedinsomeofthecitysshabbiestneighborhoods.
Onlyafewmonthsearlier,inOctober2003,TheNewYorkReviewhadpublishedJudtsbest-knownor,moreaccurately,
mostnotoriousessay,Israel:TheAlternative.TherehehaddeclaredtheMiddleEastpeaceprocessdead,andtheprospect
ofatwo-statesolutiontotheIsraelPalestineconflictburiedalongwithit.Itwastime,hehadargued,tothinkafresh,even
toturntowardthenotionofasinglestateinhistoricPalestine,onethatwouldbeasecularhometobothJewsandArabs.
Yes,itwouldmeanthedissolutionoftheJewishstateandanendtotheZionistmovementthathadgivenitbirth.But
perhapstherewasnolongeraplaceintheworldforsuchastate.SurelyIsraelhadbecomeananachronism.Andnotjust
ananachronismbutadysfunctionalone.
ThatessayhadbroughttheroofdownonJudtshead.Hewasnotonlydenouncedinthemostvicioustermsbytheusual
suspectsontheAmericanJewishrightandbarredfromspeakingonatleastoneoccasion,butalsocondemnedbyformer
friendsandallies.HehadbeenacontributingeditoratTheNewRepublicbutsuddenlyfoundhisnameremovedfromthe
masthead.AonetimeactivistinaZionistyouthmovement,avolunteerduringIsraels1967warwhohadputhisHebrewto
useasatranslator,JudtwasnowdeclaredbyIsraelsmostunbendingcheerleaderstobeanonperson.
Itstruckmeatthetimethathiscriticsweremisreadingtheessay,orattheveryleastmisunderstandingitsintent.Akindof
confirmationcamewhenIaskedJudtifhewouldhavepublishedthatsamepiecenotinTheNewYorkReviewbutinitsUK
counterpart,theLondonReviewofBooks.Hepaused,thinkingthroughtheimplications,andfinallysaidno,hewouldnot.
ThesimpleexplanationwasthatJudtunderstoodthecontrastintheclimateofopinionbetweenthetwocountries.InBritain
(andEurope)hostilitytoIsraelwasalreadydeeplyentrenched:ArielSharonhadrecentlyreincurredthedeepenmityof
mainstreamliberalopinion,notleastthroughhiscrushingofthesecondintifada.IntheUS,inNewYorkespecially,the
prevailingassumptionswereinIsraelsfavor.Indeed,ablanketofcomplacencyandunquestioningsolidaritytendedto
muffleanygenuinedebate.Inasubsequentexchangeinthesepages,whereJudttookonseveralofhisantagonists,he
wrote:
ThesolutiontothecrisisintheMiddleEastliesinWashington.Onthisthereiswidespreadagreement.For
thatreason,andbecausetheAmericanresponsetotheIsraelPalestineconflictisshapedinlargemeasureby
domesticconsiderations,myessaywasdirectedinthefirstinstancetoanAmericanaudience,inaneffortto
pryopenaclosedtopic.[myitalics]
Inthesameparagraph,JudtaddedthathewasveryworriedaboutthedirectioninwhichtheAmericanJewishcommunity
ismoving.Itseemedtomethathisessay,andespeciallyitsvehemence,wasdesignedtostirUSJewsfromtheirlethargy.
(InBritainandEurope,thetopicwasfarfromclosedandhardlyneededpryingopen.)Viewedlikethat,Israel:An
Alternativewaslessadetailedstatementofbinationalismthanaprovocation,forcingUSsupportersofIsraeltoconfront
whatthedeathofthetwo-statesolutionwouldentail.Inthatsameexchange,Judtconcededthathewashardlyofferingan
immediatepolicyprescription:
WhenIwroteofbinationalismasanalternativefuture,Imeantjustthat.Itisnotasolutionfortomorrow.
Iftheproblemwithatwo-statesolutionisthatIsraelsrulerswontmakethenecessarysacrificestoachieve
it,howmuchlesswouldtheybewillingtosacrificeIsraelsuniquelyJewishidentity?Forthepresent,then,
binationalism,isasIacknowledgedinmyessayutopian.
ThatencounterintheLondonhotellobbyofferedaglimpseofacrucialaspectofJudtscharacter:hisrefusaltosurrender
todogma.Anideologuewouldhaveinsistedthatthetruthwasthetruthwasthetruthandthattherecouldbenoadjustment
forcontext.ButJudtunderstoodthatthesameargumentcouldhavedifferentmeaningsindifferentsituations,thateventhe
mostfirmlyheldprincipleshadtotakeaccountofvariationsintimeorplace,andthat,sometimes,apositionhadtoshift.
FreedomfromdogmaisthegoldenthreadthatrunsthroughWhentheFactsChange,acollectionofJudtsessaysmany
ofthemfirstpublishedinTheNewYorkReviewfrom1995untilhisprematuredeathin2010,agedsixty-two,fromLou
Gehrigsdisease.Thevolumeisstaggeringlybroadinitsrange,testamenttotheextraordinaryeclecticismofJudtsinterests
andknowledge.HewriteslearnedlyonIsrael,France,Britain,theUnitedStates,CentralEurope,theHolocaust,social
democracy,andmuchelse.Heisabletoanalyzebothcontemporarypoliticsandmodernhistorywithdeeperudition.There
areprofilesofPolishintellectualsalongsidedemolitionsofBush-eraforeignpolicy,hymnstothegloriesoftherailwaysnext
todetailedsurveysofEuropeanwelfarespending.
Thecommonelementisintellectualpragmatism.Thetitle,apparentlychosenbyJudtsyoungson,referstotheriposte
regularlyattributedtoJohnMaynardKeynesandcitedoftenbytheauthor:Whenthefactschange,Ichangemymind.
Whatdoyoudo,sir?
ThatthiswasaJudtmantrawelearnfromatender,affectingintroductionwrittenbythebookseditorandJudtswidow,
JenniferHomans.Heropeninglinepromisestoseparatethemanfromtheideas.Butthepiecehastheoppositeeffect.Her
sketchofJudt,depictinghimasbothascholarincludingafascinatingaccountofhiswritingmethod,downtothecolor-
codedresearchnotesandahusband,servestorootwhatfollowsinlivedexperience,toacknowledgetherolethatJudts
personalhistoryplayedinhisthinking.ItswhollyfittingsincethistooisaJudttheme.Throughoutthecollection,itisclear
thathedidnotseeideasasexistinginsomerealmofpureabstraction,butunderstoodthatpeople,individualsasmuchas
nations,holdideasasaconsequenceofthelivestheyhaveled.
Inthatsenseitisilluminatingratherthanindulgentforhertorecallthewayadomesticdisputebetweenthemoverthesale
ofanunwantedhouseinPrincetonwasresolved.Hehadwantedtokeepit,untilHomanslaidoutthefactsina
spreadsheet:
Commutertrainschedules,fares,totalhoursspentatPennStation,theworks.Hestudieditcarefullyand
agreedonthespottosellthehouse.Noregrets,noremorse,norecriminations,nofurtherdiscussion
necessary.Whenthefactschangedwhenabetter,moreconvincingargumentwasmadehereallydid
changehismindandmoveon.
ThisisthelensthroughwhichtoviewJudtscommentaryonIsrael,includingtheinfamous2003essay.Headjustedhis
positioninthelightofthefacts.Fordecadeshehadbeenanadvocateoftwostates,yetseeingtheexpandingprojectof
JewishsettlementintheoccupiedterritoriesthatwouldeventuallyhavetobecomeaPalestinianstate,heconcludedthat
Israelwasnotreadytotakeeventheminimalstepsrequiredtomakesuchanoutcomepossible.Accordingly,helookedfor
otheroptions.Oneofthosewasbinationalism,butheretoohewasreadytobeswayedbythefacts.In2009,hewrotethat
hemightstillfavoraone-statesolutionifIwerenotsosurethatbothsideswouldopposeitvigorouslyandwithforce.A
two-statesolutionmightstillbethebestcompromise.
Asiftoprovetheenduringpowerofthe2003essay,atleastonereviewofthisposthumouscollectionhasfocusedonthat
singlepiecealmostexclusively,failingtotakeaccountofJudtspostscriptontheaffairorhissubsequentwritingonthe
topiccontainedintheverysamevolume.Thisisnotjustquestionablepractice,italsomissessomethingessentialabout
Judtswork:hewasnopeddlerofpickleddogmas,resellingthesame,unchangingideasinonearticleafteranother.Hewas
constantlythinkingoutloud,interrogatinghisearlierpositions,andalteringtheminthelightofchangingevents.Itmeans
thatanyreadercomingtothisanthologylookingforafixedprogramororderedmanifestowillbedisappointed.
WhichisnottosaythatJudtswritingswerenotguidedbyacoherentsetofprinciples.Foronething,resistancetodogma
was,forhim,almostanideologyinitself.Itledhimtoloathetotalitarianisminallitsforms.Helocatedfascismandthe
horrorsofNazismatthecenterofthetwentiethcentury,castingtheirshadowoverallthatfollowed.Heechoedand
endorsedHannahArendtsinsistencethattheproblemofevilwouldbethedefiningquestionofthepostwareraandhe
wrestleswithitinthiscollectionmorethanonce.
Ofcourseforaliberalhistorian,borninBritainwithalatercareerintheUS,tobeunwaveringinhiscondemnationof
Hitlerswickednessinvolvednorisk.WhereJudtshowedcouragewasinhiswillingnesstolookatmonstrouscrimes
committedinthenameoftheleft.HeisacidinhisdenunciationofStalinistmurderandunforgivingofthoseleftistswho
werereadytolooktheotherwayormakeexcuses.
Thefirstpieceinthiscollectionassesses,forexample,thereveredBritishMarxisthistorianEricHobsbawm.Judtadmires
theoldermansscholarshipbutlamentshisfailure,asJudtputitinanearlieressay(republishedinthe2008collection
Reappraisals),tostareevilinthefaceandcallitbyitsname.HecondemnsHobsbawmforremainingstuckinthe1930s,
forfailingtoshakeofftheoldManichaeancategoriesthatequatedleft/right,Communist/Fascist,and
progressive/reactionarywithgood/evil.Hadhedoneso,Judtargues,hewouldhaveseenwherefascismandSoviet
communismcametoresembleeachother.
PlentyofyouthfulMarxistswentthroughJudtsprocessofdisenchantmentandendedupfarontheotherside,reinvented
ashawkishanti-Communistsandneoconservatives.Judtmadenosuchmove:hewouldnottradeonedogmaforanother.
Indeed,hewasasternopponentoftheBushadministrationanditstramplingoninternationalnorms.Buthestakedouta
liberalterrainofhisown,beholdentoneithertheanti-WesternleftnortheAmerica-firstright.SohecouldslamDonald
RumsfeldandDickCheney,blamingthemfor,amongotherthings,shrinkingthepowerofAmericasexampleandtherefore
riskingitsappealtothefreenationsoftheworld:
Senttime: 10/16/201512:38:43AM
To: SusanFeinberg<susanfeinberg10027@yahoo.com>SusanFeinberg<feinbergSR@state.gov>
Subject: WhatForeignPolicyfortheUS?byJessicaT.Mathews|TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/sep/24/what-foreign-policy-us/
WhatForeignPolicyfortheUS?
Superpower:ThreeChoicesforAmericasRoleintheWorld
byIanBremmer
Portfolio/Penguin,226pp.,$27.95
TheRightWaytoLoseaWar:AmericainanAgeofUnwinnableConflicts
byDominicTierney
Little,Brown,384pp.,$28.00
IstheAmericanCenturyOver?
byJosephS.NyeJr.
Polity,146pp.,$12.95(paper)
Restraint:ANewFoundationforUSGrandStrategy
byBarryR.Posen
CornellUniversityPress,234pp.,$29.95
TheHillaryDoctrine:SexandAmericanForeignPolicy
byValerieM.HudsonandPatriciaLeidl
ColumbiaUniversityPress,430pp.,$29.95
JointComprehensivePlanofActionWithAnnexesIV
anagreementsignedbyChina,France,Russia,Germany,theUK,theUS,theEuropeanUnion,andIran,July14,2015
ContactPressImagesAfghanNationalArmysoldiersonpatrolwithUSMarinesinNarangvillage,Kunar
province,Afghanistan,2005photographbyStephenDupontfromhisbookGenerationAK:TheAfghanistan
Wars19932012,tobepublishedthismonthbySteidl
1.
TheincoherenceinAmericanforeignpolicyhasbeengrowingfortwenty-fiveyears,assertsIanBremmer.Thatsa
considerableoverstatement,andfromanexpertinthefield,butthereisnoquestionthat,athomeandabroad,American
policies(fromlongbeforethecurrentadministration)evokewidespreadangst,uncertainty,andcriticism.Judgingfroma
flurryofrecentbooks,themostbasicfeaturesoftheUSroleabroadremaininquestion.Howmuchshouldwetrytodoin
rapidlychangingcircumstances?Whatareweactuallyabletodo?Howmuchshouldwespendabroad?Cantasingle
principlebefoundtoimposegreaterconsistencyonforeignpolicy?
Notonlyanalystsandscholarsareworried.IrecentlylistenedtoaroomfulofEuropeanleadersbemoanthelackofUS
commitmenttoNATO.SincetheUSaccountsfortwiceasmuchofNATOmembersmilitaryspending(morethan70
percent)asallofitsEuropeanmemberscombined,thiswasabithardtofathom.Moreover,thatcommitment,andthelack
ofitinEurope,extendstothepublic.ArecentpollofcitizensofeightNATOcountriesbythePewResearchCenterfound
thatonlyintheUSandCanadaisamajoritypreparedtogotowarifaNATOallyisattackedthatbeingthecentral
requirementoftheNATOtreatyandthesinequanonofcollectivedefense.SojustwhyareEuropeansworriedabout
America?
IntheSunniMiddleEastfearofaUSwithdrawalispervasive.YettheUSmaintainsdozensofbasesandwarshipsinand
aroundthePersianGulfincludingmajorfacilitiesandasubstantialnumberoftroopsinQatar,Kuwait,theUnitedArab
Emirates,andBahrain.OperationsarealsobasedinJordanandTurkey.CENTCOM,theUSCentralCommand,inchargeof
thisregion,hasbeentheUnitedStateslargestgeographiccommandformanyyears.Yetavisitortotheregionconstantly
hearsthatthedayAmericawillsuddenlyloseinterestanddepartisjustaroundthecorner.AndinEastAsia,governments
fromUSalliestoBeijingwonderwhetherAmericaintendstoremainthedominantPacificpower,whetherthefamousbut
stilllargelyinvisiblepivotisaboutcontainingChina,andwhatitmighteventuallymeanifevermadereal.
Criticismbyfriendsandalliesisnothingnew.InUSforeignpolicy,thereneverwasagoldenageofcoherence,orforthat
matterdomesticconsensus,evenwhencontainmentoftheSovietUnioncouldjustifyeverythingfromgoingtoVietnamto
goingtothemoon.Inotherseyes,Washingtonhasalwaysdonetoomuchortoolittlebeentoopushyorfailedtoconsult.
Thatgoeswiththeterritoryofbeingtheworldsmajorpower.Todaysanxieties,though,areonadifferentlevel.Atleastin
thecoldwarnoonedoubtedAmericascentralpurpose.Todaymanyareindoubt.Butarethecriticismswellfounded?Or,
oncloserlook,isUSforeignpolicy,asMarkTwainsaidofWagnersmusic,betterthanitsounds?
2.
Fiveprofoundtransformationspackedintotheshortspansincetheendofthecoldwarin1991havesettheconditionsthat
theUSwrestleswithtoday.Atfirst,theendofthatconflictandtheseemingtriumphofdemocracyproducedaburstof
activityattheUnitedNations.By1994,seventeeninternationalpeacekeepingmissionswereunderwaymoreinoneyear
thaninalloftheprecedinghalf-century.Unlikeearliermissionsbetweenestablishedstates,mostoftheseinvolvedmessy
conflictswithinasinglestateinplacessuchasRwanda,Georgia,andHaiti.Oftentherewasntarealpeacetokeep,and
humanitariancriseswerewovenintopolitical-militaryones.Notsurprisingly,theoutcomeswereunsatisfactory,andastheir
numberandcostsrose,Washingtongrewdisenchanted.Itwasntonlypeacekeepingthatupsetofficials,butalsoaswarm
ofelection-monitoringmissionsandoftroublesomeUNconferences(ontheenvironment,socialpolicy,women,etc.)with
citizenactivistsplayingmajorpartsforthefirsttime.
Increasinglyannoyed,Washingtondemandedbetterperformanceandgreaterefficiencyandtriedtogetitbyfirst
threateningtowithholdandthenwithholdingpaymentofitsdues.Bythemid-1990s,wewere$1.2billioninarrearstothe
UN,$200milliontotheWorldBank,$95milliontotheFoodandAgricultureOrganization,and$40milliontotheWorld
HealthOrganizationallofthemlegalobligations.Weowedanotherhalf-billioninvoluntarypledgestoregionaldevelopment
banksandthenewGlobalEnvironmentFacility.Withtheworldsrichestnationsettingsuchanexample,otherssoon
followed.JustafewyearsaftermultilateraldiplomacyhadseemedtobeacentralpillarofwhatPresidentGeorgeH.W.
Bushcalledthenewworldorder,WashingtonhadfirmlyturneditsbackandtheUNteeterednearbankruptcy.
FreedfromtheconstraintsofthecoldwarwhenmilitaryactionsmightendinacollisionwiththeSovietUnion,theUS
turnedmoreandmorefromdiplomacytoitsunparalleledmilitarypower.Americahasbeenengagedinconflictfornearlyall
ofthepastquarter-century,havingundertakenninemilitaryactions,includingthetwolongestwarsinitshistory.These
two,inIraqandAfghanistan,havealsobeenbyfarthemostexpensive.Onceengaged,thecountrywaspreparedtospend
whateverseemednecessary,regardlessofballooningdeficits.Ontopofthetrillionsspentoncombat,theUShasspent
moreonreconstructioninAfghanistanthanitdidontheMarshallPlan(comparedinrealdollars)withpreciouslittleto
showforit.
InTheRightWaytoLoseaWar,DominicTierneyratestheresultsofthemajorwarssince1945asonesuccess(the1991
GulfWar),twodraws(KoreaandAfghanistan),andtwolosses(VietnamandIraq)aprettydismalrecord.The
disappearanceofconventionalinterstatewar,heargues,cameattheworstpossibletimeatthepeakofAmericanmilitary
powertemptingtheUStoinvolveitselfinthekindsofwarsforwhichitsmilitarydoctrines,arms,andtrainingarepoorly
suited.Toooftentheseconflictshavebeenalimitedwarforus,andtotalwarforthem.Wehavemorepowertheyhave
morewillpower.Unfortunately,TierneysattemptstodefinewhatkindsofactionstheUSshouldundertake,andwaysto
pursuethem,suchasattemptingtoreverseengineervictoryinadvance,fallflat.
Theseyearshavealsobeentheageofglobalization,acontinuingseachangebroughtaboutbyrapideconomic,political,
and,especially,technologicalchange,happeningsimultaneously.Inhisusefulprimer,IstheAmericanCenturyOver?,
JosephNyebringsthelattervividlyintofocusbynotingthatifMooreslawhadappliedtoautomobilesaswellasto
computingpower,by2000anewcarwouldhavecostoneone-thousandthofits1970price,oraboutfifteentotwenty
dollars.Butthoughglobalizationhasbeenfacilitatedbytechnology,itisequallyasetofinstitutionalchoicesthatwerebyno
meansinevitable.
Considerjustafewofthemajordecisionsofthe1990s:creationoftheEuropeanUnionandadoptionofacommon
currencytransformationoftheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade(GATT),asetofrules,intothemuchmore
ambitiousWorldTradeOrganizationwithafarbroaderscopeandmembershipand,inahighlycontentiousstepthatwould
soonprovetobeofenormousconsequence,globalagreementtotransformtheNuclearNon-ProliferationTreatyfroma
pactthatwouldexpireaftertwenty-fiveyearstoapermanent,globalaccord.Theseandotherstepsaremajorcommitments
tomultinationalproblem-solving,involvingsignificantconcessionsofnationalsovereignty.
Bymakingbordersporoustoinformation,pollution,criminalactivity,money,popularculture,foreigninvestment,andso
on,globalizationhasmadethejobofnationalgovernmentsvastlyharder.Securityishardertoachieveandtomaintain.
Citizensknowmoreaboutconditionselsewhereandmakedemandsaccordingly.Multinationalcorporationsandfinancial
institutionsoperatewithoutmuchconnectiontotheinterestsoftheirhomecountry.Andthedemandfortransnational
problem-solving(thoughnotthesupply)keepsrising:climatechange,cybersecurity,epidemics,andbankregulation,to
namejustafew,demandattention.
TheattacksofSeptember11,2001,andAmericassubsequentGlobalWaronTerrormarkthebeginningofthethird
transformation.September11toreawaythesenseofdistanceanddifferencethathadshapedUShistoryfromtheoutset.
Thoughtheoceanshadlongsinceceasedtobetheprotectiontheyoncewere,Americansstillbelievedintheillusion.
Homelandsecurityismorethantheprofoundchangesinlaw,intelligence,governmentspending,androutinesofdailylife
thatithasimposed.ItistherealizationthattheUSismoreliketherestoftheworldvulnerableonitsownterritorythan
ithadbeensince1812.
ThepervasivesenseoffeartheSeptember11attacksproducedintheUSmadetheinvasionofIraqpossible.Itistoosoon
toknowthedegreetowhichthatwarcontributedtotheArabAwakeningthatfollowed.Theeventsthatspreadfrom
TunisiatomostoftheMiddleEastwereareactiontodecadesofincompetentgovernance.ButtheupheavalsoftheArab
AwakeningarenowinseparablefromsectarianandtribalconflictsthatfirsteruptedinIraqfollowingSaddamHusseins
removal.Inturn,IranwasenormouslyempoweredbyAmericasdefeatoftheIraqidictatorandoftheTalibanin
Afghanistan.Syriacouldbecomeanex-countryISISthreatenstoestablishareligiouscaliphatefromchunksofSyria,Iraq,
andmaybeelsewheretheKurdsofIraq,Syria,andTurkeymayusethepresentchaostoachievetheirdreamofoneor
moreKurdishstatesandtheregionasawhole,includingplacessuperficiallyatpeace,islookingatSunniShiaconflictthat
willlikelylastagenerationormore.
Thepostcoldwarerahas,aswell,beendefinedbytheacceleratinggrowthofChina,whoseGDPhasquintupledsince
1990.Asitgrewbydoubledigits,yearafteryear,Chinawastornbetweenitsviewofitselfasastillpoorandweakvictim
ofpastcolonialism,andagrowingsenseofitsburgeoningstrengthanduniqueeconomicachievements.UntilXiJinping
tookpowerin2012theambivalencewaskeptunderalidbycontinuedfidelitytoDengXiaopingsdictumHideyour
strength,bideyourtime.Xihasabandonedthatrestraint.
Chinamayneverwanttooverturntheworldorderfromwhichithasprofitedsogreatly,butitisnolongerjustapassive
recipientofrulesandarrangementsmadebytheWest.Itisarulemakernow,notjustaruletaker.AftertheUSCongress
refusedforyearstoallowalong-overdueincreaseinChinasvotingshareattheIMF,Chinaansweredbyannouncinganew
AsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank(AIIB)withitselfthemajorfunder.TheUSrefusedtojoinandthentriedtoblockthe
newbank,failingmiserably.Fifty-sevencountries,includingmostofAmericasallies,cofoundedtheAIIBinJune2015.
EvenwhenaChineseinitiativeisconstructive,WashingtoncantquiteaccommodateitselftoChinasnewstatus.
Abbas/MagnumPhotosSanaa,Yemen,2007
Finally,WashingtonmustcontendwiththeaftermathofRussiassuddenlossofitsempire,itsdecisionatleastfornow
toturnawayfromaplaceforitselfintheWest,andthebitterfeelingsofaggrievednationalismfedsoeffectivelyby
PresidentPutinspropagandamachine.Attheendofthecoldwar,twothirdsofRussianssawAmericaeitherasafriend
(51percent)oranally(16percent).Lessthan2percentsawitashostile.Today,theUSandNATOtopthelistofRussias
enemiesand81percentofRussiansholdnegativeviewsofAmerica.
Betweentheseextremes,inRussianeyes,liesthehistoryofNATOseastwardexpansion,particularlyPresidentGeorgeW.
BushsurgingthatNATOshouldonedaywelcomeGeorgiaandUkraine,andthecolorrevolutionsinthesetwostatesand
KazakhstanthatRussians(wrongly)sawasaUS-inspiredconspiracyagainstthem.ThissamehistoryincludesUSmilitary
actionsoverKosovoandinIraq.AssignificanthasbeenRussiasinabilitytoaddressitsownfailingsandmovetoward
Westernstandardsoflivingandtheruleoflaw.Russianscanseeforthemselvesthattheircountryisnolongeragreat
power.ButatleastafterCrimeaandstillinUkraine,PutinhasgiventhemthesatisfactionofseeingRussiaonceagaina
powertobereckonedwith.
3.
Thereisnoprinciplethatcanprovidestrategicclarityorunityofpurposetothesediversechallenges.Thecoldwarwasan
aberrationinhavingsuchasinglegoal:afilterthroughwhicheveryissuewaspassedbeforebeingconsideredonitsown
merits.Americanswillhavetolearntolivewithoutareplacementforcontainmentthesoonerthebetter.Butatleastin
theory,theUSshouldbeabletodevelopbroaddomesticagreementaboutwhatitcanexpectofitselfabroad,what
developmentsareitsresponsibility,andwhatkindsofthingsitshouldnotattempt.
DefiningsuchchoicesisIanBremmerslaudablegoalinSuperpower.HedescribesthreepossiblechoicesforAmericasrole
Indispensable,Moneyball,andIndependent.ThefirstisroughlytheUSscurrentpositionitisequallycommittedto
advancingitssecurityinterestsanditsvaluesespeciallydemocracyandhumanrightsbroadlyaroundtheworld.
Moneyballforeignpolicyisacold-blooded,interest-drivenapproachthatredefinesAmericasroleintheworldinaway
designedtomaximizethereturnonthetaxpayersinvestment.SuchanAmericawouldshedburdensinfavorof
opportunitiesandwouldnevergotowartodefendaprinciple.IndependentAmericaamountstosweeping
disengagementfromtheworldwithadrasticrefocusondomesticpriorities.
Unfortunately,toomanyerrorsandinconsistenciesinhowthechoicesaredefinedsapthebooksvalue.Bremmerwrites
thatthegapbetweenUSandChinesedefensespendinggrowswiderinAmericasfavoreveryday.Ofcourse,thereverse
istrue,asafootnotereports.AsevidenceofsupposedincoherenceheassertsthatIrantookasthelessonoftheUS
invasionofIraqthatithadbetterdevelopanuclearweaponasquicklyaspossible.InfactIransnuclearweapons
programbeganmorethanadecadeearlierandintheopinionofUSintelligencewasactuallysuspendedin2003.Theneedto
rationalizemilitaryspendingbydevotingmoreresourcestolighter,smarterweaponsneededtocombatnewthreatsisan
elementoftheIndependentAmericastrategy,butwouldfitjustaswellwithbothoftheothers.Adevastatingcritiqueof
AmericanexceptionalismispartoftheMoneyballstrategy,butcouldjustaseasilydescribeIndependentAmerica.Andso
on.
Bremmersownchoice,foroddandlargelyunsupportedreasons,isIndependentAmerica.Hethinks,withoutinanyway
attemptingtoproveit,thatourcurrentforeignpolicyisprohibitivelyexpensive.HeassertsthattheAmericanpeople
dontcareaboutmostofwhattheUSseekstoachieveabroad.Thesignificantdamagethatwouldbedonetorelations
withthelikesofJapan,Israel,andBritainisacceptable,andChinawillfinditsowndirectionanyway.Whereasthe
Moneyballapproachwoulddemandsacrificingourvalues,somehowwritingofftherestoftheworldisallrightas
IndependentAmericawouldfindabravenewpurposeforthosevalues.Thatpurpose,neitherbravenorparticularlynew,
wouldbespendingmoreathome,cuttingtaxes,anddemonstratingtotherestoftheworldthatourdemocracyisbestby
movingbeyondpettypartisanfightstoforgeintelligent[legislative]compromises.Howthatdistantgoalwouldemerge
frominternationaldisengagementisunexplained.Leastunderstandablytoanynewspaperreader,heconcludesthatthere
mayonedaybegreaterdemandfromothers,forUSinternationalleadership.Thatdayisnotonthehorizon.
Restraint,byBarryPosen,endsinmuchthesameplacebyanentirelydifferentroute.AnMITprofessor,Posenhaswritten
atightlyargued,impeccablysourced,andlucidcaseforanewAmericannationalsecuritystrategy.Thoughwrittenbyan
expertforexperts,itisanaccessibleread.Notermisundefined,noassumptionunspecified,andnoassertionnotcarefully
supported.Interestingly,hepointsout,Ithinkcorrectly,thatDemocratsandRepublicans,whoseemtodisagreeon
everything,haveactuallybeenunitedfordecadesinaconsensusfavoringanassertiveforeignandsecuritypolicy.Inhis
view,thatpolicyisunnecessary,counterproductive,costly,andwasteful.Whatdividesthetwopartiesisonlytheir
attitudestowardinternationalinstitutions.Democratslikethem,Republicansdonot.HedubsthisconsensusLiberal
HegemonyhegemonicbecauseitbuildsonthegreatpoweradvantageoftheUnitedStatesandintendstopreserveas
muchofthatadvantageaspossible,andliberalbecauseitaimstodefendandpromotevaluesassociatedwiththeUS
includingdemocraticgovernancewithinnation-states,individualrights,freemarkets,afreepress,andtheruleoflaw.
Posensstrategywouldfocusonjustthreelimitedgoals:maintainingabalanceofpowerinEurasia,managing(nothalting)
nuclearproliferation,andgoingafterterroristgroupsthatchoosetheUSasatarget.ItwouldinsistthatUSalliesspend
whatisnecessarytodefendthemselvesandrenounceaimsthathaveprovedunachievable,includingthecoercivereform
andpoliticalreorganizationofothercountries.Peoplesmustfindtheirownwaytodemocracy,hereasonablyobserves.
Thepracticeofdemocracyisinevitablytailoredtothehistoryofeachpeople.
ThereisalargeoverlapwithBremmersIndispensableAmericainPosenscallforadrasticallypared-back,realistsecurity
policy,andastrongechoofTierneysoverreachargumenttoo.ButtheconvictionthattheUSshouldseekaliberal
hegemonystilldominates.Onthecampaigntrailtheonlypointofagreementyoullhearamongeighteenofthetwenty
candidatesforpresidentofbothparties(excludingRonPaulandBernieSanders)isthatAmericamustlead.Few
AmericansfindanythingjarringinpoliticiansfamiliarrhetoriconAmericasdivinepurposefewcanimaginehowAmerican
lecturestonon-Americansonhowtheymustchangethisorthatpolicycansoundlikechalkonablackboard.
ValerieHudsonandPatriciaLeidlsTheHillaryDoctrineisagoodexampleofwherethiskindofthinkingleads.The
supposeddoctrineisastatementoftenmadebyMrs.Clintonassecretaryofstatethatthesubjugationofwomenisadirect
threattothenationalsecurityofourcountry.Thereisaone-to-onecorrespondence,HudsonandLeidlrepeatedly
claim,betweencountriesofgreatestconcerntotheUnitedStatesandcountriesinwhichwomenaretreatedpoorly.Only
amomentsthoughtisneededtodemolishthisrelationship.Russia,ofgreatsecurityconcern,doesnotsubjugatewomen.
Indiaisnotasecuritythreatbuthasterribleconditionsforwomen,includingarrangedmarriageforchildren,unequal
education,prenatalsexselection,frequentrape,etc.Still,theyargue,thestatusofwomenshouldbeacoreconcernofUS
nationalsecuritypolicyandjustifiesAmericandemandsforradicalchangeinothercountriesandcultures.
4.
What,then,shouldwemakeofUSforeignpolicy?Thereare,first,goodreasonswhyitisnotassharplydefinedasitonce
was.Theworldismoving,veryfast,fromahalf-centuryofunusualstasistosomethingelsethoughexactlywhatisnot
yetclear.Thedisciplineofthecoldwarthatforcedmoststatestochoosesidesandfollowtheirleaderisgone.The
economicdominancetheUSoncehadisgonebecauseWashingtonwiselyuseditsinfluencetostimulateothersgrowth.
TheUSisstillthesolemilitarysuperpower,butwithdangerousnewvulnerabilities.Cyberattacks,theincreaseinIslamic
terrorism,andthequickeningspreadoftechnologyhavediffusedthecapacitytodoseriousdamagefromgreatpowersto
weakandfailingstatesandtononstateactors.
Attitudeshavechangedmoreslowly.Beingalonesuperpowerisharder,andharderforotherstoaccept,thanbeingoneof
two.Mistakesandoverreachingthatwouldbeforgiveninamortalconflictarenotforgivennow.Thetriumphalismthat
followedtheAmericanvictoryinthecoldwarwasshort-livedinitsacuteform,butitlingersinoutsizedexpectationsonthe
partofbothAmericansandnon-AmericansofwhattheUScandoandshoulddo.Eventseverywhereintheworldaretaken
astestsofAmericanresolvethatechoglobally.AnIraqipolitician,caughtintheviciousmorassthatfollowedthe
invasion,withAmericansoldiersdyingatasteadypace,toldmewithabsoluteconviction:Youwenttothemoon.We
knowyoucouldfixthisifyouwantedto.
Today,thechaosintheMiddleEast,accordingtoTheEconomist,istrashinghumanrightsandtorchingvaluesthatmany,
includingthisnewspaper,looktoAmericatodefend.Whetheranyforeignpowercanfixwhatisbrokenthere,whetherit
isAmericasresponsibilitytotry,andifso,exactlywhythatissoareallquestionsthatlacksatisfactoryanswers.Threeare
mostoftenoffered:theUSshouldtaketheleadbecauseofAmericanexceptionalismduetofear(defeatthreatsabroadto
preventattacksathome)orbecausethereisnooneelse.Noneofthesecanbeexpandedintoaconvincingforeignpolicy
thatassignsprioritiesbutalsosaysnotosomethings.Withoutsuchaframe,thesensethattherearenolimitsonpossible
USaction,ratherthanagenuinedesiretoturninward,iswhatisleadinganalysts,Isuspect,tocallfora180-degree
reversaloftheUSpoliciesofthepastseveraldecades.
Overuseofthemilitary,whichaccountsformorethan90percentofallUSspendingabroad,isalso,inpart,toblame.
Twenty-fiveyearsinwhichtherehavebeenfewmonthswhenUSforceswerenotactivelyengagedsomewherehascreated
aworldthatexpectsUSinterventionsandencouragesfriendsandalliestounderspendontheirowndefense,enlargingthe
needforUShelp.
TheoriginalversionofPresidentEisenhowersadmonitionwarnedagainstthemilitary-industrial-congressionalcomplex.
Hehaditright.TheUScouldeasepainfulshortfallsinmilitarypayandtrainingandbuymoresecurityforlessthanit
currentlyspends.ItisnotprimarilythePentagonthatpreventsthis,butCongress.Forallofthepostcoldwarera,under
bothpoliticalparties,wehavetoleratedenormouswasteinthePentagonbudgetandconsistentlyunderspent,inbothmoney
andeffort,onalltheothertoolsofforeignpolicy.Theratioofdefensespendingtoallotherforeignoperationshasstayed
prettyconstantatsixteentoone.
ButthegreatestbartodevelopingamorecoherentforeignpolicyhasbeenthedeepeningpartisanpolarizationinWashington
andthecloselylinkedpoliticizationofforeignpolicy.NooneexpectstheSenatetobeabletoratifyanimportanttreaty
anymore.Internationaleffortstoreachbindingagreementsonclimate,forexamplehavetoworkaroundthisrestriction,
anextraordinaryweaknessfortheworldsleadingpower.Economically,asformerTreasurySecretaryLawrenceSummers
haswrylynoted,whenyouhaveoneofourmajorpartiesopposedtotradeagreementsandtheotherresistantto
fundinginternationalorganizations,theUnitedStateswillnotbeinapositiontoshapetheglobaleconomicsystem.
RuledbytheneedtoraisemoreandmoremoneyandcrippledbyTeaPartymembersforwhomcompromiseisanevil,
Congresshasbecomeincreasinglyparalyzedandunseriousaboutdeadlyseriousmatters.Thedebateoverthenucleardeal
withIran,morethananyIcanrecallofcomparableimportancetothenationalinterest,putspartisanship,politics(read
campaignfunding),andwildlyinflatedrhetoricoversubstance.Theprincipalcriticismsarenotofthedealthathasbeen
reached,butofanydeal.Opponentsbristleatthechargethatdefeatingthedealwouldmakewarmorelikely,butinfact,it
istrue.
ThenotionthattheUScouldrejectthisdealandnegotiateastrongeroneisfanciful.Imaginetheoffer:We(aloneamong
ournegotiatingpartners)havedecidedthattheagreed-upondealisunsatisfactory.Pleasereturntothetablewherewewill
insistontougherprovisions.ThatleavesonlytwopossibilitiesanIranfreeofanylimitsorwar.
Areminderfromhistoryisrelevanthere.In2003,whentheUShad150,000soldiersacrossIransborderandIranhadjust
threehundredcentrifuges,Washingtoninsistedonano-centrifugesdealandIranwalkedaway.Irantodayhas19,000
centrifuges,vastlymoretechnology,andisafewmonthsfromhavingenoughfissilematerialforabomb.Bydefinitiona
compromise,thedealisnotperfect.Butcomparedtotheavailablealternatives,itshouldnotbeaclosecall.
Thetoneandthemisleadingcontentofthedebatecouldhavealastingimpact.Iranwilltesttheagreementinwayssmall
andlarge.Thedealssuccessfulimplementationwilldemandconstant,high-level,friendlyattentionfromboththe
administrationandCongress.Anincumbentwhohadcampaignedagainstitwithoutrestraint,oraCongressmoreintenton
vilifyingthedealthanmakingitwork(thinkObamacare),couldeasilycauseittofailnotinTehranbutinWashington.
ScholarsandexpertscanpromptsomerethinkingonwhereAmericaslimitsshouldbedrawninaworlddrasticallychanged
fromtheonethatshapedourexperience.Onlyelectedofficialscanturnthatintoanationaldiscussionoftheinterestsand
valuestheUSwantstosupportandperhapsanew,sharedsenseofAmericasnationalpurposeabroad.
1. *
Foranexampleofhowaseeminglyseriousbutincorrectchargeofweaknessintheagreementhasarisen,seeMark
HibbsandThomasShea,No,IranIsNotAllowedtoInspectItself,TheHill,August21,2015.
Senttime: 10/15/201508:51:34AM
Subject: FW:CubanAdvisersinSyria,saysFox
From:MichaelWSRyan[mailto:mwsryan@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,October14,20158:14PM
To:StephenBlankalanmerbaum@gmail.comcgrapp@harris.comcharleslannan@gmail.comcis@mosbacherproperties.com
czekaj@jamestown.orgdaniel.p.fata@lmco.comenderswimbush@mac.comhoward@jamestown.orgian@brzezinskigroup.com
ikabanenko@gmail.comjacobkipp@cs.comJohnBDunlopjon.chicky@gmail.commatthewbryza@gmail.comnick.heras@gmail.com
paul.goble@gmail.comsfstarr@jhu.eduv.dzutsev@gmail.comvvanwilgenburg@gmail.comwood@jamestown.org
zaur.shiriyev@gmail.com
Subject:Re:CubanAdvisersinSyria,saysFox
TheyusedtohaveatonoftheminAfrica.CastrothoughtitwassaferthanhavingtheminCuba.WorkedforRussianinterestthen
aswell.Looksliketheoldworldorderbydefault.
OnWed,Oct14,2015at11:07PMStephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>wrote:
likethegoodolddays

StephenBlank
traininblank@aol.com

To:MichaelWSRyan<mwsryan@gmail.com>NickHeras<nick.heras@gmail.com>IanBrzezinski<ian@brzezinskigroup.com>
DanielPFata<daniel.p.fata@lmco.com>JonChicky<jon.chicky@gmail.com>IhorKabanenko<ikabanenko@gmail.com>
CharlesLannan<charleslannan@gmail.com>ClintonSmullyanJr<cis@mosbacherproperties.com>ZaurShiriyev
<zaur.shiriyev@gmail.com>Prof.S.FredStarr<sfstarr@jhu.edu>WimbushS.Enders<enderswimbush@mac.com>Matthew
Czekaj<czekaj@jamestown.org>WladimirvanWilgenburg<vvanwilgenburg@gmail.com>JacobKipp<jacobkipp@cs.com>
BryzaMatt<matthewbryza@gmail.com>PaulGoble<paul.goble@gmail.com>PeterWood<wood@jamestown.org>Stephen
Blank<traininblank@aol.com>AlanMerbaum<alanmerbaum@gmail.com>ChristopherRapp<cgrapp@harris.com>v.dzutsev
<v.dzutsev@gmail.com>JohnBDunlop<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>
Sent:Wed,Oct14,201510:55pm
Subject:CubanAdvisersinSyria,saysFox
Thisisgettingcrazy....

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/14/cuban-military-forces-deployed-to-syria-to-operate-russian-tanks-say-sources/
From: pmstronski@gmail.com
Senttime: 10/14/201508:20:24AM
Subject: Re:ThinkHeWantsaJob?
PerhapsDNSA.ButifBillBurnsisNSA,notsurehe'dgoforMikeasdeputy.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnOct14,2015,at08:03,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
A/Sain'thighenough(Ishouldthink)andNSAtoohigh.MaybeDNSA.
Heretweetedthistweetsoit'sgenuine,butIhavebeenunabletotracktheoriginal(andIsureashellain'taskin'him)
OnWed,Oct14,2015at10:50AM,<pmstronski@gmail.com>wrote:
GoingfromAmboMiketoAssistantSecretaryMike?Perhapsnationalsecurityadvisor?Healwaysaspiredto
followCondi'spath.
SentfrommyiPhone
http://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/654105935246401536
JesseLehrich@JesseLehrich
Fmr.USAmb.toRussia,MikeMcFaulon@HillaryClinton#ImWithHer#DemDebate
Retweets18
Favorites15
Corban DanielFrancis Kavin LauraYoung Lnonblonde EugeneResnick

RockyBeethoven
6:26PM-13Oct2015
Senttime: 10/14/201508:03:13AM
To: PaulStronski<pmstronski@gmail.com>
A/Sain'thighenough(Ishouldthink)andNSAtoohigh.MaybeDNSA.
Heretweetedthistweetsoit'sgenuine,butIhavebeenunabletotracktheoriginal(andIsureashellain'taskin'him)
OnWed,Oct14,2015at10:50AM,<pmstronski@gmail.com>wrote:
GoingfromAmboMiketoAssistantSecretaryMike?Perhapsnationalsecurityadvisor?HealwaysaspiredtofollowCondi's
path.
SentfrommyiPhone
Retweets18
Favorites15

RockyBeethoven
6:26PM-13Oct2015
From: pmstronski@gmail.com
Senttime: 10/14/201507:50:11AM
GoingfromAmboMiketoAssistantSecretaryMike?Perhapsnationalsecurityadvisor?HealwaysaspiredtofollowCondi's
path.
SentfrommyiPhone
Retweets18
Favorites15

RockyBeethoven
6:26PM-13Oct2015
Senttime: 10/13/201511:21:54AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
Subject: RiftinObamaadministrationoverPutin-POLITICO
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/syria-obama-putin-russia-discord-214677
RiftinObamaadministrationoverPutin
Obama,right,andRussia'sPresidentVladimirPutinposeformembersofthemediabeforeabilateralmeetingattheUnitedNationsheadquarters.|AP
ThepresidentsreluctancetorespondassertivelyissignalingU.S.weaknessandindecision,someofficialssay.
VladimirPutinsinterventioninSyriaiscreatingnewriftsinsideanexhaustedandinsomecasesdemoralizedObamanationalsecurityteam,whereofficialspushingforbolderactionseethe
presidentasstubbornlyunwillingtoassumenewriskashenearshisfinalyearinoffice.
CurrentandformerObamaofficialssaythepresidentsreluctancetorespondmoreassertivelyagainstPutinissignalingU.S.weaknessandindecision.Werejustsoreactive,saidonesenior
administrationofficial.Theresjustthistendencytowaitandseewhatstepsotheractorstake.
PutinsdirectmilitaryinterventionfollowingyearsofindirectsupportforSyrianrulerBasharAssadhasbrokenanymomentumObamahadaftersealinghisnucleardealwithIran.
SecretaryofStateJohnKerryhadhopedtofollowthroughontheagreementbyworkingwithIranandRussiatowinapoliticalsettlementinSyria,agoalthatnowseemsfanciful.Addingtothe
frustrationisthehigh-profilefailureofthePentagonplantotrainandequipmoderateSyrianrebels,whichisbeingdownsized.
Theyreontheirbackfeetrightnow,saidaformerseniorObamaforeignpolicyhand.
ObamahasrecentlyapprovedthesupplyofammunitiontoKurdishandArabfightersinnorthernSyria,andthePentagontrainingprogramisbeingrepurposedtoarmtrustedrebel
commandersinthefield.Midlevelofficialsthroughouttheadministrationhavealsobeenaskedtodustoffoldplans,asoneputit,andbrainstormnewpotentialapproachestoSyriaand
Russia.
Butexpectationsarelowthatthoseeffortswillleadanywhere.SourcesfamiliarwithadministrationdeliberationssaidthatObamasWestWinginnercircleservesasabrickwallagainst
dissentingviews.ThepresidentsmostsenioradvisersincludingNationalSecurityAdviserSusanRiceandWhiteHousechiefofstaffDenisMcDonoughreflectthepresidentswariness
ofescalatedU.S.actionrelatedtoSyriaorRussiaand,officialsfear,failtopushObamatoquestionhisowndeeplyrootedassumptions.SusanandDenischannelhim,saysaformer
administrationofficialwhohaswitnessedthedynamic.
Thatdynamicisnotnew.ButPutinsescalationhascombinedtwoofObamasbiggestforeignpolicyheadachesanewlyaggressiveRussiaandSyriascivilwarintoonethrobbing
migraine.
Inseniormeetings,someofObamastopnationalsecurityofficialshavepressedforabolderresponsetoPutinsmuscle-flexinginSyria.TheyincludeKerry,whohasarguedforestablishinga
no-flyzoneinSyria,anoptionObamarecentlysuggestedishalf-baked.
AformerColdWarnucleardeterrenceexpert,DefenseSecretaryAshCarterhasfrettedthattheU.S.isntstandingupfirmlytoPutin'sprovocations.AndCIADirectorJohnBrennanhas
complainedthatPutinisbombingSyrianrebelfighterscovertlybackedbyhisagencywithseemingimpunity.
Theopticsarethatwerebackingoff,saidaformerObamaofficialwhohandledforeignpolicyissues.Itsnotlikewecantexertpressureontheseguys,butweactlikeweretotally
impotent.
ObamasrefusaltotakefirmeractionagainstMoscowhasincreasinglyisolatedseveralofhisadministrationsRussiaspecialists,whoalmostuniformlytakeaharderlinetowardPutinthandoes
thepresidenthimself.TheyincludeVictoriaNuland,assistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanandEurasianAffairsCelesteWallander,theNationalSecurityCouncilsseniordirectorforRussia
andEurasiaandEvelynFarkas,deputyassistantsecretaryofdefenseforRussia,UkraineandEurasia.FarkasrecentannouncementthatshewillexittheObamaadministrationthisfallraised
eyebrowsamongofficialsawareofherfrustrationthatObamahasntrespondedmoreforcefullytoPutinsannexationofCrimeaandhissupportforpro-Russianseparatistsinthecountrys
east.(Farkashastoldfriendsthatsheisnotresigningoverpolicydisputes.)
ObamadidfaceapublicchallengeintheformofaninterviewonCBS'60MinutesthatairedSunday,inwhichthepresidentgrewvisiblyannoyedasinterviewerSteveKroftpressedhimon
themodestresultsofhiscampaignagainsttheIslamicStateandonwhetherPutinwassuccessfullychallengingyourleadership.
Standinghisground,ObamarepeatedhisargumentthatitwouldbeamistaketooverreacttoPutin,whohesaysisactingoutofweakness,andthattheSyriamorassdefiesthekindofsilver
bulletsolutionsoughtbyhiscritics.
ThecriticsincreasinglyincludeDemocrats.WhiteHouseofficialsaresaidtohavereactedwithirritationwhenHillaryClintonproposedaSyriano-flyzoneearlierthismonth,lendingcredibility
toanideamainlybackedbyRepublicans.Kerryhasalsopushedforano-flyzoneinnorthernSyriaalongTurkey'sborder,whichcouldprovideahumanitarianhavenforrefugeesbutwould
alsocreateadefactochallengetoRussia'sfreedomintheskies.
ThisisnotthefirsttimeObamahasduginagainstnationalsecurityofficialsurgingbolderaction,bothinSyriaandagainstPutinsRussia.
Inlate2012,Clinton,thensecretaryofstate,joinedCIADirectorDavidPetraeusandDefenseSecretaryLeonPanettainpresentingObamawithaplantoarmandtrainamoderateSyrian
rebelforce.Obamavetoedtheidea.(HedidapproveamodestcovertCIAtrainingprogramin2013aftertheSyrianregimeusedchemicalweapons,andlastyearheapprovedthe$500
millionPentagontrainingprogramthatisbeingdownsizedafterasputteringstart.)
Thepatternrepeatedearlierthisyear,whenaconsensusemergedamongObamastopnationalsecurityadvisers,includingKerryandthen-DefenseSecretaryChuckHagel,thattheU.S.
shouldsupplylethalmilitaryaidtoUkraine,includingshoulder-firedJavelinanti-tankmissiles.DuringhisFebruaryconfirmationhearing,Cartersaidthathe,too,wasverymuchinclinedto
provideheavierweaponstoUkraine.Again,Obamaknockeddowntheidea,worryingthatPutinwouldsimplyfurtherescalateinresponse.
SomeofficialsarguedthatObamashouldkeepthepossibilityofsupplyingoflethalweaponsasacardtoplayagainstPutinintheeventtheRussiantooknewlyprovocativestepswhichhe
nowhasinSyria.
ButtherearenosignsObamaisseriouslyreconsideringtheidea.
ObamastrashtalkInasignofthecomplexitiestheObamateamfaces,fewofficialscanbeeasilyplacedinaneathawkordovebox.Kerry,forinstance,haslongfavoredano-flyzonein
Syria.Buthefrustratestheadministration'sRussiahawks,whoprefertoisolatePutin,withhisreliablebeliefinthebenefitsofcontinueddialoguewithMoscow.
ThatreflectsaviewthatpragmaticengagementwithMoscowisthebestwaytoaccomplishU.S.aims.Thattheorymayhavereceivedalittle-noticedboostearlierthismonth.Whilecritics
pointoutthatPutinbeganairstrikestwodaysafterhissit-downwithObamaattheUnitedNations,therewasunexpectedgoodnewsfromUkrainesoonafter,whenRussian-backedrebels
agreedtopostponedisputedelectionsthatthreatenedafragiletruce.TheelectionshadbeenakeydiscussionpointbetweenObamaandPutininNewYork.Evenso,theRussiahawksbelieve
thatPutinandKerry'sRussiancounterpart,SergeiLavrov,generallystringalongandmisleadtheU.S.
Ontheflipside,manyPentagonofficialswanttheU.S.tomoreactivelycounterRussianambitionsinEuropewhiledoubtingtheefficacyofproposalstotakemoreactioninSyria.Martin
Dempsey,therecentlyretiredchairmanofthejointchiefsofstaff,arguedthattheU.S.shouldconsidersendinglethalaidtoKiev.ButDempseywasavociferousopponentofaSyriano-fly
zone,whichhecalledriskyandsaidcouldcost$1billionpermonthatatimeofPentagonbudgetcuts.
AnewpaperpublishedbytheArmyWarCollegeconcludesthattheRussianinterventioninSyriaisnotnecessarilyamajorsetbackforU.S.policy.
IfeelthatwehaveamuchmoredeeplyheldconcernaboutwhatisgoingoninUkrainethanwedoaboutpullingarabbitoutofahatinSyria,saidthepaper'sauthor,W.AndrewTerrill,a
professorattheWarCollegesStrategicStudiesInstituteandaretiredArmylieutenantcolonel.TheLebanesecivilwarlasted14yearsandwasverydifficulttostop.
OthermilitaryofficialsbelievetheU.S.canstanduptoPutinwithoutgettingentangledinSyriabycontestingRussianaggressioninothertheaters,fromtheArctictoEasternEuropeandthe
Baltics,whereRussiahassteppedupprovocativeoverflightschallengingforeignairspace.InaspeechlastweekattheAtlanticCouncil,aWashingtonthinktank,NATOstopnavalcommander
proposedastrongerU.S.responsetotherecentdeploymentofsixRussianKilo-classattacksubmarinestotheBlackSea.
Thecommander,U.S.NavyAdm.MarkFerguson,calledforamoreactivealliedresponse,includingidentifyingnewbaseswheretheU.S.NavysP-8Poseidonanti-submarineaircraftcould
operate,sayingthatyoudonotgetbettersittinginportdoingsyntheticexercises.
It'sunclearwhetherObamaisentertainingthatidea.ButevenofficialswhogrumblethatRiceandMcDonoughdiscouragedissentingviewssometimesbyinvokingexaggerated,straw-man
versionsofrecommendationsconcedethatthereisplentyofdiscussioninnationalsecuritymeetingsattheWhiteHouse.Justlittleaction.
Asoneoftheformerofficialsputit:Thisisdrivenbyoneman,andonemanonly,anditisBarackObama.
BryanBendercontributedtothisreport.
Authors:
ShowComments
From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/19/201502:08:35PM
Cc: BruceOhr<neohr@aol.com>WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:2015-#203-Johnson'sRussiaList
TheUkrainianagriculturalsectorisbooming,btw,inlargepartduetothegrowthintheChinamarket.
OnMon,Oct19,2015at5:01PM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Yes,andaquestionforSergey:justwhendidPutinserveintheSVR(moreclearintheRussianversion)?
SentfrommyiPad
OnOct19,2015,at4:49PM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:
Ivanov'sWorld,whichyouhavenodoubtseen.
Interesting.Fullofenougharrogantsuperpowerswaggerandhalftruthstoswaythemoreimpressionableuseful
idiots.
TheDialectSpeakers'productionofsunflowerseedsmaybebeneatha"GreatPower,"butatleasttheymake
somethingpeopleactuallywanttobuy.
From:DavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Date:Mon,Oct19,2015at1:10PM
Subject:2015-#203-Johnson'sRussiaList
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere
Johnson'sRussiaList
2015-#203
19October2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
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donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.
"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"
"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"
Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
Inthisissue
RUSSIA
1.TASS:SergeyIvanov:Don'tthinktheKremlinalwaysdecideseverything,sometimesit
doesn't.ThechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaffinTASSspecialprojectTopOfficials.
2.Government.ru:DmitryMedvedev'sinterviewwithVestivSubbotu(NewsonSaturday)
programmebytheRossiyatelevisionnetwork.
3.AlJazeera:AnatolLieven,PutinshowshisrealisminSyria.AlackofmoderateSyrian
oppositionforceshasforcedWashingtontogivetacitconsenttoRussianintervention.
4.TheIndependent(UK):VladislavLInozemtsev,Putin'saimisclear:torestorethe
principleofsovereigntytointernationalaffairs.TheRussianPresidenthastwomessages-
oneforhisaudienceathome,onefortheWest.
5.TheIndependent(UK):RobertFisk,EveryonewroteofftheSyrianarmy.Takeanother
looknow.AllthisisonlythebeginningofMrPutin'sadventureintheMiddleEast.
6.MoscowTimes:ForeignInvestmentinRussianCommercialPropertyHits7-YearHigh.
7.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:Russiannationalistsinretreatasgovernmentapplies
pressure.AtemporarybanhasbeenimposedonthesolelargeassociationofRussian
nationalists,withtheprosecutor'sofficedemandingthatitberecognizedasextremist.
RBTHasksactivistsandobserverswhatishappeningwiththenationalistmovementin
Russia,andwhyitisnowcallingitselfthegovernment's"newenemy."
8.Bloomberg:Russia'sAilingConsumersKeepDoorOpenforRateCuts.
9.TASS:Kremlinchiefofstaff:Russiatodonothingagainstitsintereststogetsanctions
lifted.
10.TheJordanTimes:RichardWerverandVladimirYakunin,AreSanctionsSaving
Russia?
11.http://readrussia.com:JamesPearce,Russia:aTaxiDriver'sVersion.
12.HuffingtonPost:SarwarKashmeri,NoRussianQuagmireintheMiddleEast.
13.TheUnzReview:TheSaker,WeekTwooftheRussianMilitaryInterventioninSyria.
OptionsforDaesh,theEmpireandRussia.
14.MiddleEastEye:GarethPorter,Obamawon'tadmittherealtargetsofRussian
airstrikes.NooneisdiscussingtherealitythattheRussianoffensiveistargetingthebiggest
militantthreattotheAssadregime.
15.ProjectSyndicate:RichardHaass,TestingPutininSyria.
16.www.rt.com:AlexanderYakovenko,WhyRussiahadtointerveneinSyria.
17.MoscowTimes:One-ThirdofRussiansThinkRussianMilitaryIsWorld'sBest.
18.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,LifestyleandIdentity.
9.Russia&IndiaReport:AjayKamalakaran,MovingawayfromaWest-centricoutlook.
ThewesternmediaisnotlikelytochangeitsnegativeapproachtowardsRussiaanytimein
thenearfuture.It'stimeforRussianstostopcaring.
20.FinancialTimes:CourtneyWeaver,God'sTV,Russianstyle.
21.PublicBooks:Russia,Today:Part1:EliotBorenstein,CAUGHTINABADROMANCE:
WHATAMERICAMEANSTORUSSIA.
UKRAINE
22.http://ukrainecomment.wordpress.com:BrianMilakovsky,DIDKYIVSILENCE
UKRAINE'SBIGGESTOPPOSITIONNEWSPAPER?PART1.
24.MoscowTimes:PoroshenkoPressuresTVChanneltoKeepPutinHandshakeOff-Air.
25.Gazeta.ru:AntonLinnik,PoroshenkoControlsOnlyKiev.WhoWillWininUkraine's
CitiesWithMoreThanMillionInhabitants.
26.Stratfor:aGrandBargainremainselusiveinUkraine.
27.KyivPost:ReturntoVolnovakha:Ninemonthsafter13civilianskilledinRussian-
separatistattack,loyaltiesstilldivided.
28.WorldAffairs:AlexanderMotyl,ACautionaryNote:ReintegratingtheDonbas.
29.MoscowTimes:Jean-MarieGuehenno,What'sNextforRussiaandUkraine?
30.RussiaDirect:VladimirEvseev,8reasonswhytheDutchgottheMH17report
incomplete.ThereportpublishedbytheDutchSafetyBoardontheBoeing777Malaysia
AirlinesdisastercannotbedefinitivebecauseitlargelyignoresthefindingsofRussian
experts.
31.RussiaDirect:IvanTsvetkov,TheMalaysianBoeingsagaisfarfromover.The"final"
MH17reportshowsthatthereisstillalongwaytogoindeterminingwhatactually
happenedinUkraine.
32.RussiaInsider:PatrickArmstrong,MH17FinalreportisNotaFinalReportIt'sJusta
LimitedHangout.Ittellsasmuchofthetruthasithasto.Butnomore.
#1
TASS
October19,2015
SergeyIvanov:Don'tthinktheKremlinalwaysdecideseverything,sometimesitdoesn't
ThechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaffinTASSspecialprojectTopOfficials
[http://tass.ru/en/politics/829778]
InterviewedbyAndreiVandenko:BornNovember8,1959inLuhansk,Ukraine.In1982,
AndreiVandenkograduatedfromtheKievNationalUniversityofTarasShevchenko
specializinginjournalism.Since1989,helivesandworksinMoscow.Vandenkohasmore
than20yearsofexperienceintheinterviewgenre.Hewaspublishedinthemajorpartof
topRussianmediaoutletsandisawinnerofprofessionalawards.
ThechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaffdwellsuponthemostacuteissuesofRussia's
politicsandsocietyinaninterviewwithTASS.
AboutSaddamHussein,refinedliberals,thelawofthejungle,foreignpolicy
ambitionsandlessonsofhistory
-TheworldlearnedthatRussiawasabouttogotowaragainsttheIslamicStateinSyria
whenyoupresentedthepresident'srequestforpermissiontousethearmedforcesoutside
thenationalterritorytotheFederationCouncil(upperhouseofparliament).Youwerethe
onewhobrokethenews,sowillyoupleasetellus:'Whynow?'
-Let'sbeginatthebeginning.MemoriesarestillgreenofhowourUSpartnersand
colleaguesinthelate2000swereexplainingtomeingreatdetailhowveryimportantitwas
tobringdemocracytotheMiddleEast.Nowthey'vebroughtitthere...Forthewholeworldto
seetheresults.
TheoperationEnduringFreedomlastedinAfghanistanforthirteenyears.TheUnitedStates
launcheditinresponseto9/11.ItwasthelongestwartheUnitedStateshadeverfought.Its
ultimategoal-victoryovertheTaliban-remainedunachievable.
Idon'tthinkI'llhavetoexplaintoanybodywhattheAmericanshaveplungedIraqintomore
thanadecadeofchaosandlawlessness.OneshouldrememberthatSaddamHussein
hatedAlQaedaandallotherterrorists.Takeitfromme.True,whilefightingagainstthemhe
employedmethodsonecanhardlycalldemocratic.Hewassendingthemtothegallows
andhehadthemshotwithoutinquestoftrial.Thatwashiswayofsettlingscoreswith
opponents.AslongasSaddamstayedinpower,nooneeverhadtheslightestideasome
kindofterroristgroupsmightcropupintheterritoryofIraq.ButthenSaddamHusseinwas
senttothegallowshimself.Withalltheensuingconsequences.
Next,toLibya.ThecountryhasnowbeenturnedintoanotherSomalia.Thissaysitall.The
goalofNorthAfrica'sandtheMiddleEast'sconversiontodemocracywasagainofferedas
theunderlyingmotif
OrtakeEgypt.Nowitissomewhatoutsidethespotlightofpublicattention.Someother
troublespotsarefarhotter.Butjustrecently,in2012theCNNwastelecastinghours-long
bombasticreportsaboutwakingpopularmassesinCairo,andattimesitcameprettyclose
topresentingtheMuslimBrotherhoodasrefinedliberalsanddemocrats...Tocutalong
storyshort:butforthecourageandfar-sightednessofthethenEgyptiandefenseminister,
GeneralEl-Sisi,thecountrythesedayswouldhavebeenlookingverymuchlikeLibya.In
thatsituationtheremight'vefollowedamercilessfree-for-all.Mindyou,Egyptisthemost
denselypopulatedcountryoftheMiddleEastwithapopulationofmorethan80million.It
wasfortunatehistoryturneditanotherway...
Now,wehaveSyria...
-I'mnotsureaboutthe'now'part.Thecivilwarthereeruptedbackin2011.
-Correct.Theconflicttherehaslastedforseveralyearsnow.Alargeterritoryofthecountry
isunderthecontroloftheIslamicStateandotherterroristgroups.It'sahardfact!Allofus
havebeenwitnessestohowverysuccessfultheinternationalcoalitionhasbeeninitsmore
thantwelve-month-longmilitarycampaignagainsttheIS.
-Areyoubeingironic?
ThewayIseeit,theworldisataturningpointininternationalrelations.Ontheonehand,
therearetheuniversallyrecognizedinstitutions,liketheUNSecurityCouncil.Butforthem
allofuswould'vehadareallyhardtimethesedays.Andontheother,thereareindividual
countrieswhichpositionthemselvesasbenchmarksofdemocracyandoffhandedlydefy
internationallaw.Thereisnowrittenlawtheymayagreetorecognize.Infact,thesolerule
theyagreewithis:"Mightmakesright."Andthatisarealmenace.Afterall,theplacewhere
weallliveisnotthejungle,andnobodyshouldfeelfreetoruintheestablishedworldorder.
Inasense,Syriaisalitmustest.Iwon'tberetellingnowwhatexactlyPresidentPutintold
theUNGeneralAssemblysession,orreviewindetailthebackgroundofhisrequesttothe
FederationCouncilforpermissiontouseourarmedforcestohelpthegovernmentin
Damascus.IwilljustsayonceagainthatRussiainthisparticularcaseispursuingno
foreignpolicyambitionswhatsoever.Itiscrystal-clearthatmilitarymeansalonewillnever
bringaboutasettlementinSyria.Inthefinalcountapoliticalsolutionwillhavetobegintobe
lookedfor.Afuturesolutionwillbecomplexandhardtoachieve,butSyriaassuchisano
simplecountry.Bytheway,originally,theideaofanintra-Syrianallianceinthestruggle
againsttheIslamicStatewasnotours:itcamefromtheFrenchPresident,Francois
Hollande.HespeculatedthatthegovernmenttroopsunderBasharAssadandtheso-called
FreeSyrianArmymightpresentacommonfront.Ofcourse,ifthelatterdoesexistin
reality,andisnotavirtualbrainchildofsomearmchairpunditsintheWest.Anysensible
oppositioncanbenegotiatedwithandcompromisesaretobemutual-that'sprettyclear.
Inthemeantime,whilethisisstillamatterofdistantfuture,Iwouldmentiononemore
argumentwhyRussiahadtointerveneintheSyrianconflict.Asyoumayhaveheard,there
arethousandsofRussiaorCIS-bornpeoplefightingfortheIslamicState.Sowillyou
adviseustojustwatchandwaitforthemtobetrainedthereandthengetbackhome?
Manyarestillnotinthemoodofsayingcertainthingsaloud.Theyjustdon'tdarestatethem
outright.ButIwill...CrowdsofrefugeesfromtheMiddleEastarenowheadingforcountries
insouthernEurope,hopingtocrossittoWesternEurope.Howcanonebesurethat
amongthemigrantsthereareno"sleepers"-sleepingagentsorundercoverterroristswho
areonthewaytotheOldWorldforthepurposeofsettlingdowninconspicuouslysomehow
andwaitingfortheD-daytocome?AndonthatD-daytheywillemergeintheforefront
againtoplaytheverywellfamiliarrole.Forinstance,ofasuicidebomberwhoisprepared
togiveupone'slifeforfaithandtakeasmanyotherhumanlivesaspossible?Iwouldn'tlike
touttergloomprophecies,butIpersonallyhavenodoubtsitwillhappenthisway.Iamdead
certain!
-Butaren'tweprovokingtheseradicalsbygettinginvolvedinthiswar?Didn'tthejust-
preventedterroristattackinMoscowringthefirstalarmbell?
-WewilldoourutmosttoensurethatnobodyevercomestoRussiafromtheIslamic
State,thatallofthemremaininSyriansoil.
-Butyouhaven'tansweredthequestionwhatwasthereasonforustojointhefightatthis
particularmoment.
-Thesituationhasturnedintolerant.
-Somewesternmediahavebeenquotinganonymoussources-traditionallyanonymous,I
shouldsay-intheKremlinthatPresidentPutinwastalkedintobeginninganairoperationin
SyriabyatrioofDefenseMinisterSergeyShoigu,SecurityCouncilSecretaryNikolai
Patrushevandyou.Wasthatreallyso?
-IbelieveIshouldthankyoufirstformentioningmeinsuchagoodcompany...Iambeing
ironicagain,don'tyousee,sowillyoupleaseforgivethishabitofmine.Makingserious
commentsregardingsuch"leaks"isalwaysveryhard.Butifwearetostayneutraland
discussonlythehardfacts,Iwillsaythis:thementioned"anonymoussources"gotitall
wrong.Howitallhappenedwasverydifferent.
-So,howdiditallhappen?ConspiracytheoryfansareclaimingthatSyriaisjustadecoy
operation,launchedtoswitchattentionfromtheeastofUkrainetotheMiddleEast,topush
Donbasintothebackground.
-It'sabsurdtorefuteplaingossip.I'vealreadyexplainedwhywefounditrightand
appropriatetorespondtotherequestfromSyria'slegitimateleadershipforhelpinfighting
againstterroristsofallsorts.Whatattemptstoswitchattentionareyoutalkingabout?Look
here,itwasnotuswhostagedtheanti-constitutionalcoupinKiev,right?Iamreadyto
discussthethemeofUkraineingreaterdetail,ifyouwish.Justasoureffortstogetoutof
theso-calledisolationnomatterwhat.IlovehistoryandIdoknowthatRussiahasalways
beenlookedatasathreatandwithgreatsuspicion,toputitmildly.Thatwassowhen
Russiawasanempireandruledbytsars,itwassothroughouttheSovietyears,andwe
stillseethesametoday.AlexanderSolzhenytsinsaidperfectlywellthatfromtime
immemorialtheWesthadfeltscaredofRussia'senormity.Enormity,mindyou!Wesaw
sanctionstakenagainstusbackduringtheruleoftheRomanovdynasty.There'snothing
newaboutthem.Tradebarrierswereputupandfinancialobstructionsposedagainand
again...Thosemeasureswerefarharsherthanthecurrentones.Butwemanaged.We
didn'tgetscaredinthepast,andwewillstayfirmthistime.TheWestgrosslyexaggerates
theinfluenceofthelatestsanctionsontheRussianeconomy.True,theydoposecertain
hindrancestous,itwouldbefoolishtodenytheobvious,butIwillsayagainandagainthat
inthepastwelivedthroughfargreaterproblems.
AttemptstopunishRussiaaresenselessandineffective.TaketheexpulsionfromtheG8.
Somemust'vethoughtwewouldgetverymuchupset.ButtheG8iscertainlynottheplace
wherewewouldliketogetback.Honestly!Inthe1990sRussiaspentmuchtimeandeffort
forthesakeofbeingadmittedtothisclubofselectfewiteventuallygotthereonlytoseefor
itselfthattheG8wasnolongercapableofaddressinganyofthefundamentalissues
humanitywasconfrontedwithatthecurrentstage.True,itispossibletogettogethertotalk
aboutthewesternattitude(western,mindyou)tothisorthatissue,buttheworldtodayis
verydifferent.TheG20-that'stheworthylevel.Itistherethattrulyimportantthemesare
beingdiscussedandsolutionmechanismscanbedevised.HereisaSyria-related
example.Theneedforeliminatingthearsenalsofchemicalweaponsinthatcountrywas
agreedonwithintheG20format,andnottheG8orG7group.Sotherenoregretsaboutthe
demiseoftheG8,believeme.
AsfortheprocedureemployedtomakethedecisiontodispatchaRussianairgroup(which
inthepastwould'vepossiblybeencalledalimitedtroopcontingent)tothebasenear
Latakia,therewasnohasteoranythingspontaneous.Allstepshadbeenconsideredwell
beforehandandagreedwiththeSupremeCommander-in-Chief.Itiscommonknowledge
thatthecombataircraftandsomespecialunitsoftheRussianarmedforceshadbeen
dispatchedtoSyriawellinadvance...
-Althoughwekeptdenyingeverythingatfirst.
-Wedidn't.Weneitherconfirmednordeniedthereports.Wemerelyrefrainedfrom
comment.That'sstandardinternationalpractice.Andquitelegitimate,bytheway.Butlet's
berealistic:everybodyunderstandsthattheredeploymentofseveraldozenplanescannot
bekeptsecret.Everythingcanbeseenwellfromspace.
ThefinaldiscussionontheoperationinSyria,withseniormilitaryofficialstakingpart,was
heldatameetingofRussia'sSecurityCouncillateintheeveningonSeptember29.We
consideredalltheprosandcons,allstrengthsandweaknessesonceagain.The
presidentialrequesttotheFederationCouncilfollowedonlyafterthat.Ibroughtthetextto
theFCbuildinginBolshayaDmitrovkaStreetearlythenextmorning...
-TheAmericanshavealreadypredictedthelossestheRussianswillsoonsustaininSyria.
It'sclearthattherecanbenowarwithoutlosses,buthowlargeistheriskofsuch
developments?Whatdoyouthink?
-AsI'vesaid,wegaugedalllikelyrisks.Ourtroopswillnotbeinvolvedinclashesonthe
ground.Wedeclaredthatfromtheoutsetandinveryclearterms.Theairbasefromwhere
ourplanesflycombatmissionsisinsideanareaunderthefullcontrolofSyriangovernment
forces.Thereisacertainlevelofprotection,andaveryseriousone.Apartfromtheair
pilotsandthemaintenancepersonnelbasedinLatakiathereisasmallcommandounit
responsibleforguardingtheairbase.That'sanaturalprecautionandanyothercountry
would'vetakenit.SoIwouldn'tsaythereisaseriousriskofanattackagainsttheRussian
airgroupinSyria.Theoreticallyeverythingispossible,butallprecautionshavebeentaken.
Asforwhathasbeensaidabouttheexpectedlosses,we'dprefertobemoretactfulandto
avoidcountingtheUSMarineswho'vealreadylosttheirlivesinIraqandAfghanistan.
--
AboutUkraine,channelsofdialogue,sanctions,causesofthecrisis,import
substitution,goodcheeses,pampersanddestructionofcounterfeitproducts
-NowaboutUkraine,asyou'vesuggested.WhenhemadeatriptoSevastopolin
September,VladimirPutindeclareditwasnecessarytorestorefull-scalerelations.Isita
solubletaskagainstthebackgroundofwhatwecanseetoday?
-Clearly,ourrelationswiththeauthoritiesinKievhavefallentoarecord-low.Butthereare
twofactorsoneshouldkeepinmind.Thatithappenedsoisnofaultofours.Secondly,
Ukraineisaspecialcase.Thatcountryremainsahometomanyofourpeople.Andnotin
somevirtualsense,butinaveryspecificone:somebody'sparents,brothers,sisters,
grandpasandgrandmas...ThisillustrateshowrightandtothepointPutinwaswhenhe
saidthatinfactwewereonepeople.Wehaveawholeuniversetoshare:mentally,
religiouslyandculturally.Thelanguageincluded.WeareoneSlavicpeople,there'sno
arguingaboutthat.
-ButinKievthiskindofapproachcausesstrongrejection.Peopletherearguethatweare
verydifferentandthattheirlanguageiscertainlynotadialect.
-True,itispossibletorewritehistoryagainandagain,butthatwillnotchangeanything.Ido
believethatsoonerorlaterthedaywillcomewhenrelationsbetweenourcountrieswill
begintomend.
-Oddlyenough,the"later"partoftheformulaworksfarmoreoftenthanthe"sooner"one.
-Farfromeverythingdependsonus.Iftheothersidestaysreluctantanddefiant,
compulsionwon'thelp.Ittakestwototango...
-That'swhyIamaskingyouwhatyoupersonallydothesedaysforthesakeofbringing
fraternalpeoplesclosertogether?Say,doyoucontactBorisLozhkin-youropposite
numberintheUkrainianpresidentialstaff-oftenenoughandwhatthemesdoyoudiscuss?
-Therearecontactsatdifferentlevels.ThroughtheRussiangovernment,theForeign
Ministryandthepresidentialstaff...Iamnotinthepositiontodisclosethedetailsof
confidentialnegotiationsthatwe'vehadsofarandarestillhaving,butIcantellyouthatat
thebeginningoftheconflict,whenactivecombatoperations,infact,acivilwarinthe
territoryofUkraine,wereinprogress,wehadmorefrequentcontactsinabidtoputanend
tothebloodshedandfratricidalclashes.ThatwasbeforetheMinskFormat.Nowthe
situationhaschangedandthereisanewstablechannelforadialogue.Manythingshave
beendelegatedtothelevelofcontactgroups,inwhichRussiaisrepresentedasan
equitablepartner.Butifnecessary,IcanputacallthroughtoKievanymoment.
Accordingly,BorisLozhkinfeelsfreetophonemeanytime.Wedocontacteachother,
whenevertheneedarises.Thesituationisnowbetterthanitwasayearago,thankGod.At
leasttherearenoactivecombatclashesinDonbas.True,theproblemcannotberesolved
withoutapoliticalsettlementandtheimplementationoftheMinskAccordstothefullextent
isnowintheforefront.TheNormandyQuartethasstatedthatclearly.Adirectdialogue
betweenKiev'sofficialsandtheleadersofDonetskandLuhanskarenumberoneissueon
theagenda.Thepurposeistodeterminethemodality,therulesofthegame,andto
eventuallyholdelectionsincompliancewithUkrainianlegislationtoletthepeopleofDonbas
feeltheirrightsenjoysteadfastprotection,internationalguaranteesandobligations
included.Afterthatitmightbepossibletomoveontoafinalpeacearrangement.
-TheimplementationofMinsk-2isoneoftheconditionsfortheliftingofsanctionsfrom
Russia.Yousaythesanctionscausednobigtroubletous,butyouwouldagreethereis
nothingaboutthemthatcanmakesushappy.
-I'dputitthisway:
Wewillneverdoanythingtoharmournationalinterestsjustforthesakeofseeingthe
sanctionslifted
.Neverever!Itwasnotuswhotookthosemeasures,andwearenotgoingtodiscussin
anyformatwhatisnecessaryforcancelingthem.
-ButpeaceinUkrainedoesnotruncountertotheinterestsofRussia,doesit?
-Ofcourse,itdoesn't.ButIwouldavoidanylinkagehere.Areyoucertainthatthesanctions
willbeliftedevenafterimpeccablecompliancewithMinsk-2?Arethereanyguarantees?
Personally,Ihavebigdoubtsonthatscore.Thereisnoreasonwhyweshouldoffer
excusesoraskforforgiveness.
Now...
.Thesanctionsdidcausecertainlosses.TheGDPisonthedecline,andnotonthe
ascent.Wedon'tdenythat.But!TherootcausefortheRussianeconomy'sslowdownis
notsanctions,butthefallintheworldpricesofoilandgas.Iagreethatthishas
demonstratedagainourstrongdependenceonhydrocarbonsandhowverybadthisis.But
ontheotherhand,we'vebeenabletorealizethevectoroffutureactiontobetakentoease
thepressuresoftherawmaterialsfactor.
-Areyousatisfiedwithprogressinimportsubstitution,whichisnowthefocusofattention?
-Iwouldsplityourquestionintwo.Thetaskofglobalandeffectivesubstitutionforcertain
productsthatarebeingimportedfromothercountriescanbeaccomplishedin5-7years'
timeattheearliest.Althoughtheremaybeeconomicsectorswheremeetingfartighter
deadlinesmaybepossible.Forinstance,themilitary-industrialcomplex.Agreatdealhas
beendonetherealongtheselinesalready,believeme.Incidentally,itisUkrainethathas
beenthehardest-hitasaresult.Iamsayingsoinallseriousness,withoutashadeofirony.
Ourneighborshavelosttheirspacerocketindustryandaircraftandshipbuildingaswell.
True,theyhaverisentonumberoneplaceintheworldastheexporterof...sunflower
seeds.Ilearnedthatfromapieceauthoredbyoneofyourfellowjournalists.Ifthe
authoritiesinKievdocareaboutthefutureoftheirstate,theyshoulddosomethingserious
aboutwhatisreallyhappening.Onceanagrarian-industrialcountry,Ukraineisbeingturned
intoaforsakenbackyard-willyouexcusemeforsayingso-asecond-ratefarmgrowing
agriculturalproducewithveryslimchancesofeverfindingabuyerwhowouldagreeto
haveit.There's100-percentcertaintytheEuropeanUnionwillnothaveit.Icantellyouthat
rightaway.Ukraine'sanotherroleunderthecurrentschemeofthingswillbethatofan
exporterofcheaplabortoothercountries.Don'tforgetthatsincetheDonbasunrestbegan
threemillionUkrainianshavefledthecountry.Wheredidtheygo?Right,theywentto
Russia.Morethanonemillionofthemarerefugees.Andtheothershavefull-timejobshere.
Anyhow,it'suptoourneighborstodecidewhatkindofcountrytheywouldliketolivein
tomorrow.
Now,let'sgetbacktothethemeofimportsubstitutionintheRussianeconomy.In
agriculturethechangesarenotsosignificantastheyhavebeeninthedefenseindustry,
althoughproductsfromdomesticmanufacturesarealreadytakingfarmorespaceonthe
shelvesofoursupermarketsthesedays.Farmorethanjustacoupleofyearsago.Isthis
goodorbad?Tometheanswerisobvious.
-Thedialecticslawsseemtofailonceinawhile.Quantitydoesnotalwaystransforminto
quality.Atleast,theRussianagriculturalwatchdogRosselkhoznadzorsaidjustrecently
thatnearlyeightypercentofRussiancheesesisnotcheesesatall,butforgeriescontaining
vegetablefat.Ashortwhilelater,though,PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevaskedcertain
officialsnottoscarethecustomerswithforgerystatisticsandtheybacktracked.Butthe
qualityofcheesehashardlyimprovedsince.
-Iagreethatthesituationcannotbeimprovedovernight.But,asyouunderstand,we'vegot
accustomedtorelyonimportsandmadenogoodcheesesofourownforahundredyears
orso.Soitwouldbenavetothinkthatgoodcheesewillsuddenlyemergeoutofnowhere.
Itneverhappens.
Butapartfromcheesethereispoultry,porkandvegetables.We'vemanagedtomeetthe
entiredomesticmarketdemand.That'sarealchanceforourfarmproducers.Irecall
sayingoncethatsanctionsmayendsomeday,Godforbid,andthewindowofopportunities
willbeshutdownagain!We'vegottotakeadvantageofthesituationandtobuildup
production.Therearesuchplansatthefederallevelandinmanyregions,wherethe
climateisfavorableforfarming.Theplanwilltaketimetomaterialize,orcourse,butsome
positiveresultsarealreadywellinsight.
Please,remember,totalimportsubstitutionisnogoalofours.Wehavenointentionof
screeningourselvesfromtheoutsideworld.Itwould'vebeenridiculous,ifwe'dhadsuch
plans.Thosewhoarediscussingsanctionsthesedaysforsomereasonquicklyshifttothe
themeofRussia'sinternationalisolation.Whatdotheyreallymean?Theworldisnot
confinedtoWesternEurope,theUnitedStates,Canadaandsomeotherstates.Theother
countriesandregionsarenotclosedtous.Asia,AfricaandLatinAmerica...Theyareopen
toholidaymakersandtotradeasbefore.
Inaword,wewillkeepdevelopingnormally,stayintouchwitheachother,and,ifneedbe,
findalternativestoproductswearestillunabletoproduceourselves.Butspendinghard
currencyonpampers,thewaywedidjustrecently,ishardlyreasonabletoday.That'snota
precisioninstrumentforaspacerocket.Ibelievethatlaunchingtheproductionofsuch
consumergoodsinRussiawillbenoproblem.
-Withoutforgettingaboutquality,though..
-Itgoeswithoutsaying.Wedon'tneedanillusionoftheprocess.Wedon'tneedbox-
ticking,toputitbluntly:nosituationswhereanewly-madecommodityprovesbyfarinferior
toforeigncounterparts.Moreover,intheglobaleconomyhardlyanyproducermanufactures
productsmeantforthedomesticmarketonly.Ifsomethingistobemanufactured,thenonly
withaviewtoexportingtheitem.Otherwiseitwilljustmakenosense.Iknowthatfrommy
ownexperiencewithaircraft-building.
-Andwhatwouldyousayaboutthepublicdestructionofproductsundersanctions?Notas
thechiefoftheKremlinstaff,butassomeonewhowasborninthecityofLeningrad,which
experiencedthehorrorssiegeandfamineduringWorldWarII?
-Mineisaveryunequivocalattitude.Byvirtueofmymainprofession...
-Ofacareerintelligenceofficer?
-Right.I'vespentmanyyearsintheWest,andIdoknowwellthatanycivilizedcountry
mercilesslydoesawaywithcounterfeitproducts.Beitfoods,alcohol,tobacco,clothes,
footwear,medicines,householdappliancesorelectronics.Everythingisburntdown,
crushedbycaterpillartractors-inaword,disposedofinanyconceivableway.That'show
thecivilizedworldgoesaboutthisbusiness.Everywhere!
-InfrontofTVcamerasthatfilmtheprocessforprimetimenews?
-Idon'tinsistonthat.I'mtalkingabouttheprinciple.Thereisnootherwayoffighting
forgeries.Ihavemyownexperienceonthatscore.Whenin2001Itookthedefense
minister'spost,westartedbringingthearmedforcesbacktonormal.Irememberwellthe
momentwhenIorderedalargenavalexerciseintheCaspiantochecktheflotilla'scombat
readiness.Thenwe'djustreceivedthenewgenerationships,theverysameshipsthaton
October7thisyearattackedIslamicStatepositionsinSyriawithcruisemissiles.
-OnVladimirPutin'sbirthday...Bytheway,didyoucongratulateyourchief?
-Naturally.MadeamorningphonecalltoSochi.
-Gavehimabirthdaygift?
-Idid.ButIwon'ttellyouwhatkindofpresentitwas.Also,I'dkeepquietaboutbirthday
wishes.Theyweremeantonlyforhim.
...Butwe'vestrayedawayfromtheCaspiannavalexercisethemesomewhat.Itwasinthe
early2000s.Whenitwasallover,theheadsoftheAstrakhanRegionandtheRepublicof
Kalmykiacameuptomewithwordsofpraiseandthanks.Atfirst,Iwascuriouswhatthe
twomenweretalkingabout.Soonitturnedoutthatsturgeonshadreachedthespawning
groundsupstreamtheVolgaRiverforthefirsttimeinmanyyears!Thenitdawneduponme
thatwhileconductingtheexerciseweclearedtheVolgaRiver'sdeltaofseveraldozen
kilometers(andthat'snotaslipofthetongue!)ofpoachers'fishingnets.Weruinedalltheir
criminalbusinessplans!Tomyrecollection,therefollowedalongdiscussionofwhatwas
tobedonetotheconfiscatedblackcaviar.Underthepreviouslaws,itwastobemarketed.
Thatmeantthatthelocalpoliceforcewouldhavetoopenretailoutletstosellthe
confiscatedcaviar.Therebycreatinganidealenvironmentforcorruption.It'shardtothinkof
abetterone.TheInteriorMinistryspentalongwhilepersuadingthetopauthoritiestoagree
totheeliminationofpoachercaviaronsite.Thecaviarlobbywasresistingthatforseveral
yearsforitwasabouttolosearealbonanza.Putinwasfirmandallillegalblackcaviarhas
beendestroyedsince2006.Themarketwasrestoredtoorder.
ThereisnoofficiallobbyingasaninstitutioninRussia(whichisbad,totellyouthetruth),
butunofficiallobbyingwasalwaysthriving.IknowwhatIamsaying.Icomeacrossitalmost
everyday.SoIcansayonceagainit'smyfirmbeliefthattheeliminationofforgedfoodsis
thesolecorrectway.Therewillbenoalternatives,ifwearetostruggleagainstcorruption
effectivelyenough.Asforthosewhosaythatseniorcitizenswhosurvivedthesiegeof
Leningradareunhappy...Naturally,Iwasbornwhenthatwarhadbeenover,butmyown
parentsrememberedwellenoughwhatthatsiegewasforthem.Onlydemagoguescan
capitalizeonthistheme.It'sverywrongtoplaywithemotions,letaloneinsuchamean
way.
---
Aboutcorruption,aconflictofinterest,arrests,jailings,theyear1937andhigh-
profileinvestigations
-Thismeansthateverythingagaindependsonaparticularperson...ThisiswhatAudit
ChamberHeadTatianaGolikovasaidinarecentinterviewwithTASS:theproblemisnot
evenintheabsenceofbudgetfundsbutintheirresponsibilityofofficialswhoarerequired
tooverseetherationalspendingofbudgetappropriations.
-So,whatcanIsayinthisregard?Thisisabsolutelytrue.Itisnecessarytofightthisstate
ofthingsbyallavailablemeans,usingbothinstructiveandpunitivemeasures.
Unfortunately,littleisachievedinRussiawithoutinstructionsfrom"theabove"[theupper
echelonsofpower]butthesearetheproblemsofmentalityratherthanlogisticsor
economicschemes.Honestlyspeaking,budgetfundsshouldbespentefficientlynot
becausewehavefoundourselvesinadifficultfinancialsituation.Thisshouldbedoneevery
time,bothduringthe"fat"yearsandtheyearsofausterity.Thisisageneralrule,anaxiom.
Anotherthingisthatduringthefatyearsmanyofficials,aboveall,regionalheads,were
accustomedtolivewiththeawarenessthattherewasa"safetycushion"andthecentral
authoritieswouldcometotheirrescue,iftheeconomicsituationdeteriorated.Theybelieved
thecenterwouldhavenootherwayoutbuttohelpthembecauseotherwisethiswould
increaseunemploymentandintensifysocialtension.Theywereaccustomedtothinkthat
thecentralgovernmentwouldcometohelpthemandgivethemsomemoremoney,evenif
someprogramwasnotimplementedontimeorwasfulfilledinefficiently.Thousandsof
reasonscouldbefoundforanexcuseeachtimeasofficialsareveryskilledtofindanalibi
forthemselvesandinthisregardtheyareverytalentedpeople.Youshowanofficiala
protocolmadefiveyearsagoandremindhim:"Youpromisedtodothisorthatandyou
signedthisdocument!"Buttheofficialonlyshrugshisshoulders:"Ican'tdoanything.The
circumstanceshavechanged."
Yes,theyaredifferentnow.Thefederalcenterwillnolongerassisteveryone
indiscriminately.Aregionalheadshouldfirstexplainwhytheregionalauthoritieshavefailed
tofulfilltheobligationstheyhaveassumed.Thefurther,themoredifficultitisforregional
headstoconcealtheirfailures.TheAll-RussianPopularFrontpublicmovementis
contributingtothisprocessalongwiththemediaandtheInternet.However,theInternetisa
stickthathastwoends:itcandogoodservicebutitcanalsobearealgarbageplace.In
anycase,controlhasbecometighter,includingfromordinarycitizenswhofindawayto
declareviolationstheyhaveseen.
Theheadsunwillingorunabletorealizethatthetimeshavechangedaresurrenderingtheir
powersinonewayoranotherandquittingthescene.
-Actually,onlytheKremlincanremovegovernors.VyacheslavDudka[formergovernorof
theTulaRegion]andVasilyYurchenko[formergovernoroftheNovosibirskRegion]have
quittheirpostsastheyhavelostthepresident'sconfidence.AlexanderKhoroshavin[former
governoroftheSakhalinRegion]isunderinvestigationforbribesworthmillionsofrubles
whileVyacheslavGaizer[formerheadoftheRepublicofKomi],asitturnsout,organizeda
criminalgroup.Willthisseriesbecontinued?
-Doyouwantustoarrestsomeoneeveryweek?Ordoyoubelieve,perhaps,thatevery
governorinRussiaisaswindlerandathief?Ipersonallydon'tthinkso.I'mconfidentthatan
overwhelmingmajorityofofficials,bothattheregionalandfederallevels,arehonestand
nicepeople.Youcan'tsmearblackpaintoneveryone.
Allthenecessaryanti-corruptionlegislativeactshavebeenadoptedinRussia.Nowthey
havetobestrictlyobserved.Forexample,governmentofficialshavebeenpublishingtheir
incomedeclarationsformanyyearsnow.Ipublishedmydeclarationforthefirsttimeback
in2000anditwasacompletelynaturalandcustomaryprocessforme.Anotherthingis
thatapartfromdirectcorruptionwestillhaveaveryunfavorablesituationwiththeso-called
conflictofinterests.Howdoesthislooklikeinpractice?Perhaps,youknowtheexamples
whenaparticularofficialmakesadecisiononthedistributionofprocurementordersforthe
fulfillmentofworksfinancedfromthestatetreasuryorunderstatepurchasesandit
subsequentlyturnsoutthatthetendercontractwassurprisinglyawardedtoacompany
affiliatedwiththatofficial.Itturnsoutthattheofficial'sdaughterisworkingatthiscompany
asitspresidentorhiswifesitsonthecompany'sboardofdirectors.Suchpracticeis
widespread.OnOctober6,PresidentVladimirPutinsignedalaw,whichclearlydefinesa
conflictofinterestforgovernmentofficials,waystoavoiditandmeasures,whichanofficial
isobligedtotake(preciselywhatheisobligedtodo)incaseswhenthereisathreatofthe
emergenceofaconflictsituation.Youknow,thelawstartedtoworkevenbeforeitofficially
cameintoforce.I'mheadofthepresidiumoftheAnti-CorruptionCouncilundertheRussian
presidentandweexaminenon-publiclyinthe"Miscellaneous"sectiontheinquiriesby
officials,includinghigh-levelfunctionaries,whoinformusthataconflictofinterestmay
emergeundercertaincircumstances.Orletusconsideradifferentsituation:apersonquits
governmentserviceandwantstocontinueworkinacompany,whichinthepasthad
relation,say,totheministrywherethisofficialworked.Peopleaskthequestion:canwe
accepttheinvitation?Wehavealotofsuchinquiries.Sometimes,wegiveourpermission
butrefusalsalsooccur.Everythingdependsonaparticularsituation.
Andthisisverygood.Anti-corruptionbehaviorisgraduallybecomingnormalpractice.Of
course,high-profileprobesarealwaysmuchspokenaboutandthemedialikessuch
cases.Onegovernorwasjailed,anothergovernorwasremovedfromhispost...Butyou
wantmore.Areyoucallingusintotheyear1937whentherevolutionaryjusticewas
administeredwithoutcourtproceedingsandinvestigation?
-Whyso?Thisshouldbedoneproperly,underlaw.
-Look,theremustbeweightyargumentstoplaceapersonunderarrest.Isitclear?For
yourinformation,ninegovernorshavebeencriminallyprosecutedoverthepastfewyears,
bothincumbentandthosewhohavelefttheirposts.ButIwanttosayaboutadifferent
thing.High-profilecasesaremuchwrittenandspokenaboutandthisisperhapsrightbut
youshouldknowthatRussiancourtsannuallypassdozensofthousandsofguiltyverdicts
forcorruption-relatedcrimes.Dozensofthousands!
-Whatisthelevelthesecrimesarecommittedat?
-ThisiswhatI'mtalkingabout.Whenadoctororaschoolteacherisconvictedforabribe-
andthishappensinamajorityofcases-thisseemstobedullanduninteresting.Butthere
isanuproarwhentheconvictisagovernororaminister.Thestruggleagainstcorruptionis
notacampaignoraPR-action,withthehelpofwhichtheauthoritiestrytogainadditional
pointsandraisetheirpopularity.Theremustbenowitch-huntjusttopleasesomeone.And
therecanbenoselectivejusticedependingonthedefendant'spost.Iftherearegrounds,
chargesarebroughtagainstapersonwithoutabackwardglanceattheperson'spostor
status.Themostimportantthingisthattherearenounpunishablepersonsinanti-
corruptionactivity.Otherwise,governorswouldnotbearrestedandtheirfatewouldbe
decidedinasomewhatbehind-the-scenesprocess.
-IrecallyourinterviewyougavethreeyearsagotoTVChannelOnewhereyousaidwhat
youknew:peoplewhowerepreviouslytreatedwithtrustwerestealing.Butyouhadto
toleratethisandgivenosign...
-Thiswasthecaseaboutlarge-scaleembezzlementofbudgetfundsfromtheGLONASS
federalprogram[forthedevelopmentofthenationalsatellitegrouping].Atthattime,Ihada
closed-doormeetingwithInteriorMinistryofficersinvestigatingthecase.Theytoldme
aboutthedetailsoftheprobebutithadbeengoingonforalongtimeanditwasimportant
formenottogivemyselfawaysoasnottofrightenawaythesuspects.Ididn'tmentionthis
intheinterviewbutIbelieveitiscleartoeveryonethatwhenwelearntaboutthetheftwe
changedtheschemeoftheproject'sfinancingtoexcludetheembezzlementofbudget
funds.Thisisabsolutelyobvious!Someeighteenmonthslater,weopenedacriminalcase
andbroughtcharges.Todaysomeofthesepersonsarenolongeralivewhileothersarefar
off,servingtheirprisonterm...Youshouldunderstandthatasuspicionisnotyetaproof
andthepresidentialadministrationisnottheInvestigativeCommittee...
-Butthecorruptofficialssubmittedtaxreturnsinaccordancewiththeestablished
procedure,inwhicheverything,perhaps,lookedfine,butacloserexaminationwouldreveal
...
-Thelaunderingofbudgetfundsandtheirwithdrawalintooffshorehavensarenotdeclared
andbankaccountsinCyprusorsomewhereontheVirginIslandsarenotindicatedeither.
Butthereisnodirectrelationshiphere.Corruptionhasbecomeveryintricateandlatentand
proofsincorruptioncasesareobtainedquiterigorouslyandcarefully.Thismeansthat
consistenteffortsweretakentolookintoandfindtheproofsagainstcorruptpersons.
-Thereisawidespreadopinionthattherearefileswithincriminatingevidenceoneveryone
andaparticularfileistakenoutattherighttimeandputonthepresident'sdesk.
-Absolutenonsense!Ifsuchfilesexistandtheyshouldbecalledcases,thenthesearein
law-enforcementagencies.Perhaps,therearesuchcasesthere.Thisisevenforsureand
notjustprobably.Peoplearenotarrestedwithoutreasoninourcountry.
-WhendidyoulearnaboutthearrestofGaizer,forexample?
-Whenitwasreportedinnewsprograms.ThereportscameeitherfromtheTASSnews
wireorTVnews.AndIdon'tconsideritpossibletocommentonthiscasebecauseI
haven'tseenitandIdon'tknowthedetails.Nooneinformedmeinadvanceorconsulted
withmeaboutwheretocarryoutthisspecialoperation,ifyou'retalkingaboutthis.Don't
thinkthateverythingisdecidedintheKremlin.Muchisdecidedbutnoteverything.
Letmerepeatagain:thepresidentialadministration,indeed,analyzestheincome
declarationsofofficials,aboveall,top-levelpersons.Wecheckthecorrectnessofdata
indicatedinsuchdeclarations.Apparently,I'llspeakseparatelyonthistopicattheendof
theyeartoinformhowmanycaseswehaverevealedamongofficialssubmittinguntrue
data,whichservedasthegroundfortheirdismissalduetothelossofconfidence.Butthis
doesnotmeanthattheyarecriminalsandyoushouldn'tconfusedifferentthings.
---
Aboutwork"inthefield,"spymania,thegovernment'sfear,thesplitofelites,the
yachtofAndreiMelnichenko,sadRomanAbramovichandtheprospectsof
Transaeroairline
-Youreferredtoyourpreviousservice,asifunintentionally,alreadytwice.Imeanthe
specialservice.Doesthisexperiencehelpyouinyourcurrentwork?
-Perhaps,notverymuchnow.WhendidIquittheservice?Thiswasin2000.Afterthat,I
workedasdefenseminister,andthefirstvice-premier.Iknowasaying,although,thatthere
canbenoformerintelligenceofficers...Yes,indeed,Ispentthelargerconsciouspartofmy
lifeintheForeignIntelligenceService.Twenty-fivecalendaryearsarenojoke.Thepast
experienceundoubtedlyofferssomehelp,forinstance,wheninternationalissuesare
discussed,thankstoagoodcommandoftheEnglishlanguage.
-I'mtalkingaboutadifferentthing,aboutthemind-setandapeculiarviewontheworld.
-Maybe.Theabilitytoswitchfromonethingtoanotherandthequickreaction...
-Andwhataboutthesaying:"trustbutverify?"
-Ah,you'retalkingaboutthis.YouknowIwasengagedinpoliticalintelligenceandlargely
workedinthefieldandfinishedtheoverseaspartofmyserviceasaresident.Thisishowit
was:Ihadtotrustcomradesblindlybecausetherewerenopossibilitiestoverify.Youcan't
suspectyourcomradesbecausethisisevenworseandmoredangerous.
.Anotherthingisthatyoushouldreadpeoplewellandknowwhomyoucanrelyon.
-Butaweaklinkmaynotrevealitselfimmediately.Incidentally,theWestimposed
sanctionsagainstRussiainthehopeoftheelites'split.Itexpectedthattheclosecircleof
VladimirPutinwouldbediscontentwiththeinfringementofitsfreedomsand...Hasthis
planworked,inyourview?
-Yes,butonlyinamirror-likemanner.Itseemstomethattheeliteshavesplitabroadrather
thaninourcountry.You,perhaps,analyzethewesternmedia.Haven'tyounoticedthat
whenofficials-ministers,speakersand,allthemoreso,presidentsortheheadsof
governments-speak,theycriticizeRussiaunmercifullywithafrownontheirfacesanda
quiveringvoice.Itfollowsfromtheirspeechesthatwe'rewrongineverythingand
everywhere,inUkraine,Syriaandwhereverelse.Butwhenpoliticianswhohaveleftthe
upperechelonsofpowerforvariousreasonsstarttospeak,thetonalityoftheirspeeches
changesdramatically.Foreignanddefenseministersandotherreputablepersonswho
havelefttheirpostssuddenlybegintoopenlyshowsolidaritywithourpositiononmany
issues.Whatdoesthissuggest?Thissuggeststhatyouareobligedtotalkthiswayandno
otherwaywhileyouareinpower.Itisonlyafteryouresignthatyoucanexpressyourown
thoughtsandviews.Thisisnotforbiddenbutonlyforex-officialsandnotforpersons
holdingposts.Thosewhoreturntopower,starttocriticizeuswithanewvigor.Ihavelong
grownaccustomedtothis.Andlookatitwithhumor.
-Andwhataboutourelites?
-Whatdoyoumean?Givetheexamples.
-OnepartofthebusinesselitehasbeenhitbysanctionsduetofriendshipwithVladimir
PutinandisdeprivedofthepossibilitytogotoEuropeanduseitsmoneyandrealestate
there.Meanwhile,theworld'slargestyachtworthover$400millionissetafloatinGermany
for[Russianbillionairebusinessman]AndreiMelnichenko.Also,[Russianbillionaire]Roman
AbramovichhasbeenrejoicingatthesuccessesofhisFCChelseainLondonformany
years.
-Thisisaprovocativequestion.Whereistheconflict?Idon'tunderstand.Firstofall,about
theelites.IhavesaidonmanyoccasionsthatIdislikethiswordverymuch.Tomymind,
thiswordcanbeusedforthosewhohavedonesomethinguseful,necessaryandtangible
forthehomecountryinthecourseofseveralgenerations.Toomanyvolunteersinour
countryawardthemselveswiththistitlewithoutsufficientgroundsforthat.Thisisthefirst
generalremark.Excusemefordepartingfromthetheme.
Now,letmespeaktothepoint.Whatisthenameoftheyacht'sowner,asyousay?
-Melnichenko.
A:Wheredidyougettheinformationaboutthevessel'scost?
-Thisisanexpertestimate.TheyachtwasbuiltattheGermanshipyardNobiskrug...
-Istronglydoubtthatthisfigureistruebutthereisanotherthingthatmatters.Thequestion
iswhetherMr.Melnichenkoacquiredthisyachtwithlegallyearnedfunds.Thisisthemain
andthesolethingthatmattersforme.Iunderstandthatwealthyandsuccessfulpeopleare
dislikedandevenhatedinourcountry,unfortunately.Butifamanbuyssomethingwithhis
earnedmoney,thisishispersonalmatter.
-Iaskednotaboutaspecificyachtbutabouttherelationsbetweenthosewhocango
abroadandthosewhoaredeprivedor,tobemoreexact,limitedintheirfreedomoftravel
acrosstheworld.
-Yes,somerepresentativesofthebusinesscircles(butnotelites)havesufferedfromthe
sanctions,asyouputit.Buteverythingisrelative.Ibelieve,althoughIdonotassert,that
[Gennady]Timchenkoor[ArkadyandBoris]Rottenberg[theRussianbillionaire
businessmenhitbythewesternsanctions]alsohaveyachts.Noonehastakenthese
yachtsawayfromthem.ThisispointNo.1.Theyarestillfreetotravelaboardtheiryachts
everywheretheywant.Letmerepeatagain:theglobeisnotlimitedbytheOldandtheNew
World.ThisispointNo.2.So,don'tbothermuchaboutthem.AsforAbramovich,hisFC
ChelseahasmadeanunfortunatestartintheEnglishChampionshipandholdsaplaceat
thebottomofthetournamentstandings.Thiscanhardlypleasetheclub'sowner.Thisis
pointNo.3.ButthekeyquestionagainisthemoneywithwhichRomanAbramovichbought
theLondonteammanyyearsago.Ifthemoneyislegal,thenthethemeisclosedforme.
Asforhowsomebusinessmenlookatothersandhow,itisbettertoaddressthisquestion
tothem.Ibelievethatnoproblemsariseininterpersonalcommunicationthereand
everythingisunderstandabletoeveryone.Butthisismypresumption.Strictlyspeaking,in
thecontextoftheinfluenceofsanctionsonbusiness,itismoreappropriatetotalknotabout
thefreedomoftravelacrosstheworldbut,say,abouttherestrictedaccesstothecapital
market,which,indeed,hasseriouseconomicconsequencesforcompaniesincludedinthe
sanctionslists.
-Letusswitchfromyachtstoaircrafttoreducetheheatofourdiscussion.Letustalk
aboutprivateratherthanpersonalplanes.AirlineTransaerohasgonebankrupt.WillAeroflot
becomethemonopolyonthemarketafteritsdeparture?Please,answermeastheperson
whooversawthetransportsectorinthegovernmentforalongtime.Isitgoodorbad?
-Therewillbenomonopoly.EvenifAeroflothadincludedTransaeroinitsbalancesheet,
aswasplanned,itssharewouldhavebeenfrom48to52percentonthemarket.Butthe
dealfellthrough.Thegovernmentisnowconsideringotheroptions.Transaeromanagers
arelargelytoblamethemselves:theywerewrongwiththebusinessstrategy,tookplanes
onleaseforforeigncurrencyandthentherubleplummetedandtheygotintothissituation.
Itisn'tthestatethatistoblameforthis.WesupportedTransaeroasanationalairlinefora
longtimeandnowitisimportantthatpassengersand,ofcourse,theairline'sstaff-pilots,
stewardessesandgroundpersonnel-shouldnotsufferfromthis.Meanwhile,the
enlargementofcompaniesisworldpractice.Perhaps,youknowthattheDutchKLMisnow
partofAirFrancewhiletheScandinavianSAShasbeenmergedintoLufthansawhilethe
SpanishIberiafailedtolivethroughthepreviouscrisis.Weakoperatorsaretakenoveror
swallowedup.Thishappenseverywhere.ButAeroflotsurelywon'tbethesoleplayeron
thedomesticmarket.
-ButnooneencroachesonthemonopolyofRussianRailways(RZD).Itistrue,though,
thatRZDHeadVladimirYakuninwhoseemedtoholdhispostfirmlyhadtoresign.
-AsfarasIknow,theresignationwasdiscussedforsometimeandwasnosurprisefor
Yakunin.Asforhisplanstobecomeasenatorandthenhisdecisiontogiveuptheseplans,
thisishispersonalmatter.
OlegBelozyorovbecametheRZDheadinAugustandrecentlyinformedPrimeMinister
DmitryMedvedevthatthecompanyplannedtoreachabreakevenpointinsuburbanrailway
communicationin2015.Forthefirsttimeever!Earlier,billionsofrubleswerespentin
subsidesfromthefederalbudgetonthis.
Therearealotofproblemsinthesector.RailwaycarriagetariffsremainveryhighandI
wouldsayexcessivelyhigh.Asaresult,wehavehugeimbalances.Businessmentryto
transportanycargobyroad.Itcomestoabsurditywhenmetalandcoalaretransportedby
truckstoadistanceofseveralhundredkilometers.Thisisbecauseyoudon'thavetopay
fortheoperationofhighwaysandeverythingisforfree.Nowwe'llfinallystartcollectinga
feefromtruckswithaweightofover12tons.Theydamagetheroadbedverymuch!
Incidentally,Irecollectedthatintheearly2000wediscussedaproposalinthegovernment
onintroducingtollhighways.Thereweresomanyheateddebates.Thequestionwasabout
whetheritwasnecessarytochargeafeefromdrivers.MostoftheCabinetmembersdid
notsupportme.Ihadtoexplainandproveeverything.DidyourideinSheremetyevoalong
thenewsectionofafutureMoscow-Petersburgtollroad?Ittakesyoujustfiveminutesto
arrive.Noweachpersonisfreetochoose:eithertopay100rublesforthespeedand
convenienceormoveslowlyintrafficjams.Weliveinafreecountry...
-Incidentally,abouttheairports.WhatcausedyourcriticisminPetropavlovsk-Kamchatski
whenyoulashedattheheadsofDalspetsstroi[theFarEasternbranchoftheFederal
AgencyforSpecialConstruction]asyoutalkedbeforeTVcameras.Wereyousostruckby
thedisruptionofthelocalportreconstruction?
-Everythingcanbeunderstoodincomparison.IrememberthatIusedtoflytoVladivostok
asthedefenseministerwhentheaerodromebelongedtothePacificFleet.Youcouldn't
lookwithouttearsatit:ashedandabadlandingstripmadeofconcreteplates.Andlookat
theairportbuiltnowthere.OrinYekaterinburg.InSochi,Novosibirsk.I'mmentioningthe
facilitiesfrommemory.Thislistcanbecontinued.AsfarasIremember,wehaveinvested
over380billionrublesinthereconstructionofairportsinthepasttenyears,includinglarge
aerodromes.Ofthissum,about250billionrubleswereinvestedfromthebudget.
ItisnotthemoneythatisaprobleminKamchatka.Thefundsfortheconstructionofthe
secondstripwereallocatedinfull.Thenewtakeoffandlandingstripwasbuiltayearago
butplanescan'ttakeofforlandbecausethereisnoflightcontroltowerthere.Theschedule
offinishingtheconstructionworkwasdelayedbyabouteightmonths.WhenIlearntabout
thisinPetropavlovsk,Idecidedtolookintothematter.Ingeneral,theproblemistypicaland
itrepeatsinminiaturewhatishappeningattheconstructionsiteoftheVostochny
cosmodrome.Budgetfundswereallocated,contractorsreceivedassignmentsbutoneof
themtookthemoneyanddisappearedonthevastexpensesofRussiaorevenperhapsleft
thecountry.
SoIhadtoreprimandthem,toputitdelicately.AndnowIreceivereportseverytendayson
thepaceofconstruction.Dalspetsstroiiscompletingworksinthebuildingoftheflight
controlcentre.InearlyNovember,specialistsofAlmaz-Anteycompanywillstartinstalling
moderntechnologicalequipmentforairtrafficcontrol.Theequipmenthasbeenpurchased
andonlyhastobeinstalled.
Asaresult,afteraone-yeardelay,Kamchatkaresidentsand,Ihope,mostRussianswho
wanttogettothesebeautifulplaceswillbeabletousethenewairport.IlikeKamchatka
verymuchandconsideritoneoftheworld'swonders.
-Willyougotoaccepttheworks?
-Probably.ButatfirstI'llwaitforareportthateverythingisfinishedandreadyforoperation.
---
Ongeneralshoulderstraps,retirementat47,thesnowsofKilimanjaro,traitor
Gordievskyandhumanweaknesses
-Speakingabouttransportandroads...doyouhaveacar?
-Idon'tneedone.Honestly,Iamusinganofficialcar.IgaveupdrivinglongagowhenI
becameasubjectofstateprotectionin1999.
ButIlikeddriving.IhadaVolgaGaz24madeforexportandcoatedwithleadoxide.Agood
car!AndIputmanykilometersonthatvehicle,some300,000.OnceItookadrivefrom
MoscowtoPetrozavodsk.Withoutrefueling.IhadahybridVolgacarusingbothpetroleum
andnaturalgas.Youknow,thosespecialtanksinthetrunk?Icoulddrivehalfwaywithgas
andtheneasilyswitchtopetroleumanddroveforanother500kilometerscastingsuperior
glancesatlonglinesatafewpetrolstations.Ihadtherighttofeelfairpride.EventuallyI
honestlyearnedmoneytobuytheRussiancar-makingmarvelwhileservingtheMotherland
abroad.
-Mr.Ivanov,I'venoticedthatyoualmostneverwearmilitaryuniform.ButonMay9thisyear
yousuddenlyappearedincolonelgeneral'sjacket...
Ihavewornuniforminpublictwiceinmylife.Iamstressing-inpublic.Thefirsttimewasin
2000whenthe55thanniversaryoftheVictorywascelebrated.IservedasRussian
SecurityCouncilsecretaryatthattime.AndthesecondtimewaslastMayasyoujust
noted.VictoryDayisasacredholidayforme,asformanyourcompatriots.AsIhada
directattitudetoservice,althoughitwasnotarmyservice,Ideemeditpossibletowear
uniform.
I'vebeenretiredsince2000.WhenIwasSecurityCouncilsecretaryVladimirPutinsaidmy
candidacywasconsideredforthepostofdefenseminister.AtthattimeIwasaspecial
servicegeneralandtoldthepresidentIdeemeditwrong.Inmyopinion,anintelligence
officer,aservingone,notaretiredone,cannotheadthearmedforces.
-Andwhat'stheproblem?
-Canyouimagineapolicegeneralcomeandstartcommandingtheforeignintelligence
service(SVR)?Icannotpicturethis.Wehavewrittenandunwrittenrules,someethicsof
relationsbetweenrepresentativesofdifferentservicesandtroops.It'shardtoexplainthisto
acivilian.
-ButSergeyShoigu,theEmergenciesMinistry'sGeneraloftheArmy,movedtoArbat
Squareandthat'sfine.
-AfterleavingtheEmergenciesMinistry,SergeyShoigususpendedservice.Heworkedas
theMoscowRegion'sgovernorforsixmonthsandonlythenbecamedefenseminister.All
islogical.
So,backin2000Ihadnodoubtsthataspecialservicesofficershouldnotheadother
'institutionofforce'.AndIamstillconvincedinthis.Therefore,ItoldPresidentPutinthen
thatI'dliketoretireforthesakeofsoonestadaptationatmynewposition.VladimirPutin
agreedwiththislogicandsignedmyresignation,because,asyouknow,hehadalso
workedfortheforeignintelligenceservice.
Soattheageof47IbecameamilitaryretireeandIstillamandevengettinggood
retirementbenefits.Alongwithmysalaryofapresidentialstaffofficial.
I'venowturnedtopastandrecalledaconversationwithGeorgeW.Bushwhenhecameto
St.Petersburgintheearly2000s.WeweretakingarivercruisealongtheNeva,standing
onthedeckandIpointedatthefamous"BigHouse"onLiteinyavenue,theformerKGB
headquartersinLeningradandthecurrentFSBheadquarters.Itoldhim,"Seethewindow
ontheseventhfloor?It'stheofficewherePutinandIstartedourprofessionalcareeras
youngoperatives."
-Didyoushareoneoffice?
-Neighboringones.
AndBushsaidinreply,"Sergey,youmustknowthatmyfatherwasaCIAdirectorforalong
whileandthenbecameUSpresident.SothefatheralwaystoldmethatLangley,notthe
WhiteHouse,wasthemostinterestingperiodinhislife."
-Areyoureadytosubscribetothesewords?
-Fortunately,IhavenothingtodobothwiththeWhiteHouseandLangley,butIenjoyedmy
intelligenceservice.AndIthinkIwasdoingwell.Butit'sbettertoassessfromtheoutside.
-OnceyouquotedKissingerinthisregard...
-Hesaidthateverydecentguyshouldstartcareerwitharmyorsecretservices.Istarted
withsecond.Kissingerisagiantofaman,averyinterestinginterlocutorandIdorespect
himendlessly.BeforeIwasbannedentrytotheUSoversanctions,Imethimtheremany
timesandKissingereveninvitedmetohisNewYorkapartment.Andwhentheformer
secretaryofstatevisitsMoscow,Itrynottomissachancetomeetwithhim.
Butofcourse,wedon'ttalkaboutintelligencework.
-Mr.Ivanov,youhaveaperfectsurnameforaspy,whichmakesiteasytomixwiththe
crowd.
-I'lltellyouafunnystory.WhenIservedasRussiandefenseministerintheearly2000s,I
oftencametoLondonandBritishjournalistsalwaystoldme,"Butyouweredeportedfrom
England!"Iwasreallysurprised.AndthenIlearnedthatsomeIvanovSergeyBorisovich
hadbeendeported,indeed.Buthewasbornin1952andIwasbornin1953.Mynamesake
gotinamessinBritain.Suchanoddcoincidence!
Asformysurname,Ivanovismyfather's.Mymother'ssurnamewasPetukhov.
So,I'veconfessedeverything.
-Andwhywon'tyoustubbornlynamethecountrieswhereyouserved?
-Ofcourse,thisisnobigsecrettodaybutnoonehascanceledcertainethics.Underthe
lawallintelligencesecretscanbedisclosedonlyafter75years.Mytimehasnotcomeyet.
-Icanquoteyourinterviewgiven15yearsago,"IsawKilimanjarobutIwon'ttellyoufrom
whichside."Justtrytoguess-fromKenyaorfromTanzania.
-AndIcanrepeatitnow.ButI'lladdthatIsawthemountainfrombothsides...Asyousee,I
don'trejectwhatIsaidanddon'tdeceiveanyone.
-DidyoufollowinHemingway'sfootstepstothesnowsofKilimanjaro?
-Iwasnotatourist,Iwasworkingthere.ButIsometimesthinkofthoseplaces,indeed.
Theyareworthvisiting.EastAfrica-Kenya,Tanzania,Uganda-areknownfortheir
amazingnationalparkswherepredatorsandotheranimalsliveintheirnaturalhabitatand
walkatlargewhilepeoplearewatchingthemfromarespectfuldistance.Thosesightsare
sealedinmemoryforever.
ButwhereandhowIworkedisnotforthemedia,I'msorry.Ofcourse,somethingsarewell
knownasIdidn'tconcealthem.I'vealreadytoldyouthatpoliticalintelligencewasmy
specializationandIwasfocusedontheWest.IendedmyserviceabroadasaKGB
residentandthenworkedasfirstdeputyheadoftheSVREuropeanintelligence
department.
-Onceyou'vementionedthatyoufacedbetrayalwhichaffectedyourcareer.What'sitall
about?
-Icantellyounow...IknewamannamedGordievsky.Ifhecanbecalledaman,ofcourse.
IcannotsaythathisshamefulbetrayalandrecruitmentbytheBritishintelligenceservice
brokemylifebutIgotcertainproblemsatwork.Roughlyspeaking,Gordievskyturnedme
in.Afterthat,Ihadsomeforeignassignmentsbutinotherlocations.
SincethenIfeelagreataversiontotreasons.Thereweretraitorsinintelligenceintheearly
1990s.Ifyouremember,agroupofsleeperagentshassufferedrecently...Itisfairtosay
thatCIAandFBIalsohaddefectorstoourside.Secretservicesneversleep.
Youknow,you'veaskedwhatmarksmypreviousjobleftonme.Idon'tlikelong,ponderous
andoff-the-pointanswerstosimplequestions.Intelligenceworkrequiresprecisionand
specifics.AndIamaquitepragmaticpersonbynature.Thereismuchworktodo,why
wouldIwastemyandotherpeople'stime?Whenapersonismakingalongand
monotonousspeechaboutsomethingforhalfanhourandyoucanunderstandnothingof
whathe'ssaying,youunwittinglygetirritated.Whyjustdon'tadmitthatyoudon'tknowthe
answerand,therefore,keepdrawingcirclesintheair?
Nobodycanknoweverything.Ihaveneverbeenafraidoftellingaprofessionalthathe
knowsthesubjectbetter.Thereisnothingshamefulaboutit.It'snormal!Teachingfishto
swimwillnevercometomymind.Orgivingadvicetothecoachhowheshouldtrainthe
teamaheadofadecisivematch.
-Well,yes,Mr.Ivanov,youareasportslover.
-Whatdoes"lover"mean?AsanormalSovietchild,Iplayedfootball,hockey,volleyball,
handballandonceeventriedtoplaywaterpolo,whichalmostkilledme.That'sahorsey
sport,excusemyFrench.Oneshouldbeverystrongtoenduresuchloads.AndIwasnot
eveninmybestyears.Itriedtoplaygolflaterbutitdidn'tgowell.Everythingneedstime,no
successcomesatonce.Iwasplayingbasketballforawhileandevenachievedcertain
resultsbutsufferedanankleinjuryandhadtobecomeafanlongago.
-Anardentone.YouevenrememberChelsea'stableposition,asfarasIknow.
-Idon'tfollowtheEnglishchampionshipintentionallybutifIflipthroughSportExpressdaily
inthecarIlookattheresults.ButIamaCSKAfan.Inallsports-football,hockey,
basketball.
And,ofcourse,theRussianteamledbyLeonidSlutskyhasmademyday.Webroke
throughtoEuro2016whenallchancesseemedtobelost.IwasattheOtkritiyeArenato
supporttheteamatthematchwithMontenegrowhenthestadiumwasfull.
-HowshallwedivideLeonidSlutskybetweenthenationalteamandtheclub?
-Thecoachisneitherawardrobe,norasackofpotatoes...Slutskyisanunusualcoach.I
guessnoonealreadydoubtshisprofessionalism.Rememberthoseclamorsagainstthe
combinationofpositions.AndtwomonthslaterCSKAareevidentleadersoftheRussian
footballchampionshipsandthenationalteamwonfourstraightvictoriesandqualifiedfor
theFrenchtournamentwithoutplay-offs.Whatotherreasonsareneeded?Beforetheend
oftheRussianchampionships,thenationalteamhastoholdtwoshortgatheringsandplay
friendlymatches.That'sall!Whatistheproblem?I'vealreadyexpressedmyopinion:Ithink
SlutskyshouldstayatCSKAbytheendoftheseasonandthentheRussianFootballUnion
shouldagreeonLeonid'scontractbailout.Morereasoningwillfollow.Butit'suptoVitaly
Mutko.
-CSKAPresidentYevgenyGinersaidthatSlutsky'scontractisworthabilliondollars.
-Oneshouldunderstandjokes!IhopeVitalyMutkowillcometotermswithYevgenyGiner...
Ginerisareasonableandsoundperson,althoughhecanbetoughandshrewd.Thisis
normal.That'shischaracter.Whensomeonesayshehasnofaults,it'salarming.Itmeans
heismistakenorwantstohidesomething.Asuspicionsituation,don'tyouthink?
[returntoContents]
#2
Government.ru
October17,2015
DmitryMedvedev'sinterviewwithVestivSubbotu(NewsonSaturday)programmebythe
Rossiyatelevisionnetwork
DmitryMedvedevspokewithVestivSubbotuhostSergeiBrilyovonthesituationinSyria.
Transcript:
SergeiBrilyov:MrMedvedev,thankyoufortakingafewminutestotalkwithus.I'maware
thatyoucameherestraightfromameetingofthePresidiumofthePresidentialCouncilfor
EconomicModernisationandInnovativeDevelopment.
DmitryMedvedev:Yes,themeetinghasjustfinished.
SergeiBrilyov:Unfortunately,myquestionisnotaboutanythingmodern,butrather,thewell-
knownarchaicdevelopmentsthatarehappeninginworldpolitics.I'mreferringtotheUnited
StatesrefusingtoaccepttheRussiandelegation,ledbyyou,especiallyasyouhavegood
personalrelationswithPresidentObama.Wereyousurprised?Whatwasyourreaction?
DmitryMedvedev:Ithinkthatpersonalrelationsdon'thaveanythingtodowithit.National
interestsalwaysprevail.Whathappened?Amajorconflicthasbrokenout,anditmustbe
addressed.However,thecurrentUSadministrationhasreactedinafairlystrangemanner.
Bytheway,itisroutinelyblamedforthingsthatitcan'taffordtoallowitself,suchas
weakness,indecisionandincompetence.Ontopofthis,itisblamedfornottaking
appropriatemeasurestoupholditspriorities.I'mnotsureifthisisthecase,it'suptothem
todecide.Butjudgingbythestatementsthatweremadethisweek,includingbysome
WhiteHouseclerks,itseemstobetrue.
LetmegiveyouaquickrecapoftheSyrianevents.Aconflictbegantherein2010-2011.
Ourinitialpositionwastorefrainfromtakinganydecisionsaimedatunderminingthe
authorityofthecurrentSyriangovernment.Next,the"IslamicState",orISIS,becamea
problem.TheAmericansproposeddealingwiththiseviljointly.Wesaidyes,wethinkit's
therightthingtodo,andwearewillingtodoit.Thequestionishow.AfterISISbeganto
spreadlikeacancerthroughouttheMiddleEast,wetoldthemthatwewerewillingtojoin
thecombinedanti-terroristefforts.However,todoso,weneedamandatefromtheSyrian
government.Ourcountryobtainedsuchamandateintheformofacorrespondingrequest
bySyria'sPresidental-Assad.Therefore,wehavethenecessarylegalgroundstofight
terrorisminthatcountry.Buthowshouldwegoaboutthisfight?Inordertofightanyone,
youneedtounderstandwhothetargetis.InacollaborativeeffortwiththeSyrianleaders,
wehaveidentifiedseveraltargets.TheCommander-in-Chiefmadeanappropriatedecision,
andthearmedforcesbegantheiroperations.TheAmericansaredisgruntled.Theyare
tellingusthateitherthestrikesorthetargetsarewrong.Toourlegitimaterequeststo
provideuswiththecorrecttargets,theysaytheywon'tdothat.Wesayokay,butthenat
leastshowuswhichtargetsweshouldnotattack,andtheycomebackwiththesame
answer.Whatkindofcooperationisthat?
TheRussianPresidentdecidedtocomeupwithaproposaltoholdconsultationswith
them.Thefactis,ourUScolleagueskeeptellingusthatthisproblemshouldbeaddressed
inacomprehensivemanner,andthatit'simperativethatweagreeonSyria'sfuture,
discussthefateofPresidental-Assadandresolvethesituationpolitically.Wehaveno
objectionstothat-hence,theideaofapoliticaldelegationincludingspecificmembers.
Suchadelegationwouldbeinapositiontodiscussavarietyofissues,rangingfromthe
militaryallthewaytopoliticalangles,focusingonanationaldialogueandsettlement.This
seemstomakesense.However,theUSadministrationcamebackwithacounterintuitive
response,sayingthattheydon'tneedit,becauseRussiaisbehavingincorrectly,andsuch
adialogueisimpossible.Thisisthesituation.
SergeiBrilyov:WhenwasRussia'sproposaltosendadelegationledbyyoutotheUnited
Statesmadepublic?
DmitryMedvedev:Itwasquiterecently,soonafterthestartofthecorrespondingphaseof
themilitaryoperation.
SergeiBrilyov:NotinNewYorkduringtheconsultations?
DmitryMedvedev:No,notinNewYork.Webehavedlikepartnersinthissense.The
Presidentspokewithhisoppositenumber,andconsultationswereheldatthelevelof
foreignministers.Butthismessagewassentafterthemilitaryoperationshadbegun.
SergeiBrilyov:I'mgoingtoaskyouasomewhatunrelatedquestion.Wehavenever
discusseditwithyoubefore.YouareoriginallyfromLeningrad,nowStPetersburg.Ihope
youlikethemoviePokrovskyGateswhichissetinMoscow?
DmitryMedvedev:Ido,justlikeanyothergoodSovietfilm.
SergeiBrilyov:There'salinewherethemaincharacter-Kostik-askssomeoneto
describehisfeelings.Hesays,"Whatdothesepeoplemakeyoufeel?"Wait,I'veeven
copiedthislinefromthescripttomakesureIgotitright.
DmitryMedvedev:Well,it'saclassicofRussianfilm,soquotingitisappropriate.
SergeiBrilyov:Yes,hereyougo.Here'swhathesays,"Isitfrustration,sympathy,
compassion,or,perhaps,fondness?"AndI'dadd,perhaps,disappointment?
DmitryMedvedev:AreyoutalkingabouttheUSactions...
SergeiBrilyov:YourattitudetowardstheAmericans.
DmitryMedvedev:Youknow,I'llputitthisway:Ithinkit'sfoolishbehavior.Bymakingsuch
decisionsorrefusingtotalk,theAmericansaresimplyshowingtheirweakness.Afterall,
everyonecanseethattheiractivitiesinthisregiontocombatISIShaveamountedto
practicallynothing,andISIScontinuestospread.OnlyRussia'sinvolvementhaschanged
thesituation.Still,theysaythattheywon'ttalkwithus.This,Ibelieve,isashortsightedand
weakposition,becausestrongandresponsibleleadersandstatesacceptofferstohold
talkseveninsituationswherethepartiesmayseethingsdifferently.Inanycase,wenever
avoidedtalks.Let'swaitandsee.AsourPresidentsaid,weareopentodiscussany
issues,andI'mheretosayitagain.
SergeiBrilyov:Here'smylastquestionaboutthis.Therewasafeelingthatthepeoplewith
whomyouweresupposedtogotoWashington-representativesoftheGeneralStaffand
theDefenceMinistry-weregoingtheretodiscusspurelymilitarymatters.However,since
thedelegationwastobeledbyyou,youwereboundtodiscusswaystoachievepolitical
settlement.Isthatright?
DmitryMedvedev:That'sexactlywhatourUScolleaguessaidinasurprisedtone,"So,you
wanttodiscusspoliticalissues?"Indeed,Russia,theUnitedStates,andallotherstates
thathaveastakeinseeingpeaceinthisregionandinSyria,andastronggovernment,too,
shouldbediscussingpreciselypoliticalissues.Itdoesn'treallymatterwhowillbeatthe
helm.Wedon'twantISIStorunSyria,dowe?Itshouldbeacivilisedandlegitimate
government.Thisiswhatweneedtodiscuss.
SergeiBrilyov:So,itdoesn'thavetobeBasharal-Assad?Russiaisoftenaccusedtodayof
protectingnotitself,butBasharal-Assad.
DmitryMedvedev:No,absolutelynot.It'suptotheSyrianpeopletodecidewhowillbethe
headofSyria.Bytheway,Syriaisamultiethnic,multi-faithandafairlycomplexnation.It's
uptothepeopletodecide.Atthemoment,weoperateonthepremisethatal-Assadisthe
legitimatepresident.ImaybeoneofthefewwhowasinSyriabeforethewar,andsaw
whatSyriawaslikebeforethewar.Icantellyouthatitwasastrongandquitemodern
state...
SergeiBrilyov:Well,notwithoutauthoritarianism,butpeaceful.
DmitryMedvedev:Yes,apeacefulstate,absolutelyright.Monumentswerenotdestroyed
there,andtheeconomywasgood.Now,ithasbecomeamess.Thisisthemost
unpleasantoutcomeoftherecentdevelopments.So,ofcourse,wearenotfightingtoback
specificleaders.Ontheonehand,wearedefendingournationalinterests.ThePresident
saidthatifwedon'tdestroytheseterroriststhere,theywillcometoRussia.Ontheother
hand,wereceivedarequestforhelpfromlegitimateSyrianauthorities.Thisiswherewe
proceedfrom.
SergeiBrilyov:So,we'llbewaitingfortheAmericanstocometotheirsenses?
DmitryMedvedev:We'llseewhatkindofdecisionstheyaregoingtomake.Anyway,I
reiterate:Clearly,ourcountryhasmadethefirststepinthisarea,andweareopento
dialogue.
SergeiBrilyov:Thankyou,MrMedvedev.
[returntoContents]
#3
AlJazeera
www.aljazeera.com
October16,2015
PutinshowshisrealisminSyria
AlackofmoderateSyrianoppositionforceshasforcedWashingtontogivetacitconsentto
Russianintervention.
ByAnatolLieven
AnatolLievenisaprofessoratGeorgetownUniversityinQatarandavisitingprofessorat
King'sCollegeLondon.
TheRussiangovernmenthasanumberofdifferentmotivesforitsinterventioninthe
conflictinSyria.Amongthesearethedesiretohelpanoldally,tobeseenoncemoreasa
greatpowerontheworldstage,andestablishapositionthatwillforceUSandEuropean
leaderstotreatRussia'sviewswithgreaterrespect,especiallyovertheUkrainecrisis.
Russia'sstrategy,however,alsostemsfromaparticularanalysisofthesituationinSyria
basedonamixtureofhard-headedrealismandtheexperienceofovertwodecadessince
thefallofcommunism.TheRussiananalysisisthattheUSstrategyofarmingandbuilding
uptheSyrian"moderateopposition"neverstoodanychanceofsuccessandhasnowbeen
recognisedbythePentagonasafailedstrategy.Also,underthesecircumstances,ifthe
BaathstateinDamascusisoverthrown,theresultwillbe,atbest,long-termanarchyand
atworst:atakeoverbytheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL)andal-Qaeda.
ReminiscentofWesterntactics
Moscowhas,therefore,decidedtoprovidetheSyrianstateanditsHezbollahandKurdish
allieswithaRussianairforce,inthesameway(intheviewofRussianofficials)theUS
providedanairforcefortheLibyanoppositionin2011,theNorthernAllianceinAfghanistan
in2001,theKosovoLiberationArmyin1999,andtheCroatianarmyin1995.
ThisRussiandecisioncamewhenitdidbecauseSyrianstateforcesseemedtobe
crumblinginthefaceofISILattacks,andalsobecausethestateofUSpolicyandinterests
havemadeithighlyunlikelythattheUSwoulddoanythingtoblockRussia'sactions.
Onthelastpoint,Russiananalysishasalreadybeenshowntobeentirelycorrect.Thisis
becauseUSofficialsarenowfacedwithaninterlockingsetofseeminglyimpossible
dilemmasintheMiddleEast.Forobviousreasons,ISILhasnowjoinedal-Qaeda,bythe
US'thinking,asposingbyfarthegreatestthreatofterrorismagainsttheUSandEurope.In
Iraq,thishasledtowhatamountstoUS-IraniancooperationinsupportingtheShia-
dominatedIraqigovernmentagainstISIL.ThishasalsocontributedtotheObama
administration'snucleardealwithIran.
TheUS'inabilitytoblockRussia'snewstrategyisalsobecause,inprivate,considerable
partsofthesecurityandintelligencecommunitiesinWashingtonandotherWestern
capitalsessentiallyagreewithRussiananalyses:thatthemoderateSyrianoppositionisnot
developingasaseriousmilitaryforce.
Inthekindofsimplestrategiccalculationsbelovedbyinternationalrelationsstudents(and
whichactuallyhappenedonoccasionsduringtheColdWar),theUSwouldsimplymove
overtowardsanalliancewithIran,HezbollahandtheSyrianstateintheregion.Butthisis
obviouslyimpossibleformultiplereasons:ItwouldcosttheUSitsalliancewithSaudi
Arabia,theGulfStatesandTurkey-withdangerousimplicationsforthewiderstruggle
againstterrorism.
Washingtonis,therefore,leftwithasetofessentiallycontradictoryinterestsandpoliciesin
theregion.Indeed,andverylargelybecauseofpastUSactions,theMiddleEasthas
developedsuchcomplexandheavily-armedconflictsthatnostablehegemonyoverthe
regioniscurrentlypossible.
Tacitconsent
Underthesecircumstances,todestroytheSyriangovernmentandarmywouldriskplaying
disastrouslyintothehandsofISILandal-Qaeda.Theseanalystsfullyrecognisetheodious
recordoftheSyrianstate-buttheconceptof"oursonofab***h"isnomorealientothe
CIAthanitistotheKGB.
ThedevelopmentofthiskindofthinkingintheWestbringstheseanalystsclosertoan
underlyingfeatureofRussiananalysis(alsosharedbymanyothersinBeijing,Delhiand
elsewhere),thatinmanypartsoftheworld,states-notregimes,butstates-arefarmore
fragileentitiesthanmostWesternthinkinghasassumed.Veryoften,regimesandstates
areoneandthesamething,sothatifyoubringdownone,youalsodestroytheother.The
consequencesofthis-especiallyinaneraofinternationalterroristsseekingsafehavensin
ungovernedterritories-maybemuchworsethanleavingadictatorshipinpower.
Thisthinkinghasitsrootsinhistoricalmemoriesofpastperiodsofchaosintheirown
countries.Itisclosetotheoldsaying-initsdifferentforms-that:"Adayofanarchyis
worsethanahundredyearsoftyranny".IntheviewofMoscow,theexamplesof
Afghanistansince1992,Iraqsince2003,andLibyasince2011haveprovedthisargument
sodefinitivelythatnofurtherdiscussionisnecessary.
Acertainmoodis,therefore,growinginWashingtontoletMoscowpursueitsinterventionin
Syriaandgarneralltheresultingrisksandunpopularity,while,perhapsinthewiderscheme
ofthings,alsoservinglong-termUSinterests.AmongtheserisksfortheRussian
governmentarethattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmayturnagainstthisintervention,
which-accordingtoopinionpolls-theyseemtoviewinaverydifferentlighttoMoscow's
strategyinUkraine.IfWashingtonhadarealandviablechoiceinthematter,thismightwell
bedescribedasadreadfullycynicalUSapproach.ButdoesWashingtonhaveachoice?
[returntoContents]
#4
TheIndependent(UK)
October19,2015
Putin'saimisclear:torestoretheprincipleofsovereigntytointernationalaffairs
TheRussianPresidenthastwomessages-oneforhisaudienceathome,oneforthe
West
ByVladislavLInozemtsev
VladislavL.InozemtsevPh.D.(Econ.)isSeniorVisitingFellowwiththeCenterforStrategic
andInternationalStudiesinWashington(DC)andProfessorattheHigherSchoolof
EconomicsinMoscow
Contrarytoreceivedwisdom,Russia'smilitaryactioninSyriaposesnobigthreattothe
existingglobalorder.ItwaspureVladimirPutin,ofcourse:precededbythelackofany
militarybuild-up,discussedsecretlywithWesternleaders,andlaterapprovedbythe
parliamentinminutes.Infactitmay,undersomecircumstances,evenhelpsustainit.
WhatdistinguishesRussia'sactionsinSyriafromthoseundertakeninCrimeaandinthe
easternpartsofUkraine,isaboveallitsinstitutionalizedcharacter.Whatevermaybesaid
aboutMrPutin'slong-termgoals,thecurrentsituationlooksperfectlyclear:acountry
(Russia)beingaskedbyaforeigngovernment(Syria)thathasbeencons ideredlegitimate
fordecadesandthatisrepresentedintheUNandotherinternationalorganizations,to
providemilitaryassistance,foranailingregime.AnysuggestionthattheRussianairforcehit
notsomuchtheIslamicState'smilitantsbutBasharal-Assad'spoliticalantagonistsare
senseless:theyaredoingexactlywhattheSyriandictatorisaskingfor,andnotsomething
else.RussiansbelievethatMrAssad'senemiesaretheirtargets,sinceMoscowand
Damascusareallies-andthisissufficientgroundsfortheinvolvement.
ButwhatistherealcauseofRussia'sengagementinSyria,thedeeperreasonforMrPutin
tosendhisservicemenoverseas?Therearetwoelementsoftheanswer:ontheonehand,
heshowshisfellowcitizensthatRussiamayactindifferentpartsoftheworld,itisstrong
andpowerful,andmayconstrainterroristsontheother,hewantstosendasignaltothe
West.
It'scrucialthattheWestcarefullyreadswhatthissignalmeans-becauseglobalpoliticsfor
theforeseeablefuturewilldependonhowthatmessageisdecrypted.Iwouldarguethatthe
mostwidespreadexplanation-thatMrPutinwishestostrikeanewdealwiththeUSand
Europe,theoneunderwhichhewillhelptheWesttofightIslamicextremistsinexchange
forforgettingaboutUkraine-maybemisleading.Ofcourse,theKremlinisnotsonaveas
tobelievethatthemajorpowerswillbecomeaccustomedtotheexistenceofanunstable
Ukrainianstate,plaguedbyRussian-ledseparatists,onEurope'sborders.MrPutin's
messageseemstoaddressanotherissue,quitedifferentfromtheestablishmentofCold-
War-like"spheresofinterests"inthe21st-Centuryworld.
Howeverprovocativeitmaylook,it'sallaboutthefoundationsofthecurrentglobalsystem,
andfirstofall,abouttheprinciplesofsovereigntyandnon-interference.InmyviewMrPutin
isactuallyconcernedbyoneissuealone-thatofhisownpositionasRussia'slifetime
paramountleader.Hecaresmoreandmoreabouttheglobalorderinwhich,asheseesit,
theprinciplesofsovereigntyarenolongerrespected.Herealisesthatinrecentyearsthe
WestmadeahugeadvancetowardsRussia'sbordersbyenlargingNATOandtheEUthat
iteitherdestroyedsomeautocraticregimesorseducedthemtobecomemoreco-op-
erativethattheUSisbuildingnew"coalitionsofthewilling"whichmaytoppleanypolitical
leadertheychoose.
WhatRussiaisdefendinginSyriaisnotactuallyBasharal-Assad'sregime.Norisitfighting
theglobalterroristnetwork.Moscowistodayattemptingtore-establishitsownnotionof
sovereigntythatwasthecommononejustseveraldecadesago.Takingthisintoaccount,
theWestperhapsoughttorethinkitsstrategytowardsRussia,tryingtosmoothrelations
butstoppingshortofengaginginaseriesoftrade-offswithMoscow.
InrecentdecadesboththeWestandRussiamadestrategicmovesthatwerenot
welcomedbytheotherside.TheUSandNATObackedthesecessionofKosovoin1999,
andthenrecognizedthebreak-upprovinceasasovereignstate.TheRussiansactuallydid
exactlythesamein2008inGeorgia,usingtheverysamerhetori cofhumanitarian
intervention.Thesetwocaseswerehighlydisruptiveforthecurrentinternationalregime-
butnoonecalledforaninternationalconferenceorconventionondebating,andfinally
legitimizing,humanitarianinvolvement.In2003,theUSorganizedacoalitionforwaginga
waragainstIraq,sayingthatthisstatedevelopedachemicalweaponsprogram-aclaim
thatwasnotprovedlatersincethen,similarcoalitionswereorganizedinsupportofanti-
governmentforcesinbothLibyaandnowSyria.Russiabelievedthiswasacomplete
destructionofthetraditionalnotionofstatesovereignty-andinsomepartitbecamean
excuseforneglectingthesovereignpowersofacountryintrouble.
InthecaseofCrimeain2014,MoscowactedinwayssimilartotheWest-butwhilethe
Westernpowersdecidedtotopplethegovernmentsofunstablenations,Russianleaders
preferredtooccupy(formallyornot)somepartsoftheirterritory.Ofcourse,Russia'sacti-
onswerearudeviolationofinternationallaw,buttheWesterninterventionscouldhardlybe
calledlegitimateeither.Andnowsomethingshouldbedonetostopthisracetowardthe
completedestructionoftheinternationalorder.
Toreiterate,manypoliticiansbelieve,thatMrPutinwantstoexchangesomeconcessions
inSyriaforthesameinUkraine:e.g.,RussiastopssupportingBasharal-Assad,andthe
WestagreeswithRussianoccupationofCrimea.Inthiscase,however,theresultwillbe
onlythelegitimationofillegitimateactionsindifferentpartsoftheglobe,attributedtosome
greatpower's"sphereofinterest".Inreturnforbetterconcessions,theWestshould
changetheagendacompletely.
Itshouldagreethatthetraditionalsenseofsovereigntymustberespected,andtherefore
Mral-AssadmightbeconsideredSyria'slegitimateruler,andsometerritoriesofhisstate
mightbeseenasviolentlyannexedbyeithertheIslamicStateorsomeotherrebelgroups.
TheterritorialintegrityofSyriashouldbeproclaimedindivisible,andtheWestoughtnotonly
tosupportRussia'sactions,butproposetobuildacoalitionunderRussianleadership
(sinceeverybodynowshouldacknowl edgethattheRussiansaredoingtheirjobinSyria
quiteeffectively).
Allthismayhappen,ofcourse,onlyifMoscowrethinksitsactionsinUkraine.IfRussia
wantstokeepBasharal-Assadinpower,theWestcouldreconsideritssupportforanti-go-
vernmentforcesinSyria,butsubordinatethistothewithdrawalofMoscow'sbackingforthe
Donbassseparatists.
Suchanewdealmightbeputforwardinaveryclearform:theUSandEuropeagreethat
Syriashouldberebuildunderthecurrentruler,whateverthehumanrightsconsequences
maybe(theycannotbemuchworsethantheyaretoday).So,theglobalpowersconfirm
thesovereignrulesaresuperiortothepeople'srighttorevoltandtohumanitarian
considerations.InexchangetheWestasksRussiatofullystopitssupportforDonbass
guerillas,makingitclearthataninternationalmilitaryinvolvementinDonbassifthe
UkrainiangovernmentasksforwouldbeaslegitimateasRussia'sactionsinSyria.Sothe
dealmaynotbesomuch"RussiacedesSyriatotheWest,buttheWestcedesUkraineto
Russia",butmorelike"TheWestrecognizesal-AssadastherulerofSyriaandhelpsto
crushhisopposition,ifRussiarecognizesKiev'ssovereigntyoverthewholeUkraineand
allowstheregulararmytoridthewesternprovincesofguerillas".Suchaproposalwill
eitherbeturneddownorspoiledbytheKremlin,anditwillindicatethatRussiadoesn'twant
anykindofordertoberestoredininternationalrelations.
If,however,Moscowwouldliketonegotiatesuchanoption(thatactuallywouldlookvery
reasonablefortheKremlin),arealbreakthroughmaybeachieved.Bothsidesmaydevelop
abroadagendaofissuestobedebatedandsolved-fromthepreviouslymentioned
sovereigntytothehumanitarianinterventions,useofforce,defenceofminorities,andso
on.Ofcourse,allthiswillnotmakeourworldmoredemocraticandfreebutitdefinitelywill
turnitintoasaferplace,wherethegreatpowerpoliticslooksmuchmorepredictable-and,
Iwouldargue,todayitseemsthebestpossibleresultthatmaybeactuallyachieved.
Torepeat:theRussiansaredoingnothinginSyriathatmaybeconsideredasaviolationof
internationalorder.ThereforetheWestshouldeitherstayasideandwaitfortheoutcomeof
Russia'sriskyundertaking,orsignalthatitgotRussia'smessage,hasunderstoodit,andis
readytonegotiate.Thesecondoptionisdefinitelybetter,particularifitgivesglobalpowers
thechancetolookaftertheirowninterests,whiledebatingthefundamentalissueof
sovereignty.
[returntoContents]
#5
TheIndependent(UK)
October19,2015
EveryonewroteofftheSyrianarmy.Takeanotherlooknow
AllthisisonlythebeginningofMrPutin'sadventureintheMiddleEast
ByRobertFisk
RobertFiskisTheIndependent'smultipleaward-winningMiddleEastcorrespondent,based
inBeirut
WhiletheworldstillragesonatRussia'spresumptionintheMiddleEast-tointervenein
SyriainsteadoflettingtheAmericansdecidewhichdictatorsshouldsurviveordie-we've
allbeenforgettingtheoneinstitutioninthatArablandwhichcontinuestofunctionand
protectthestatewhichMoscowhasdecidedtopreserve:theSyrianarmy.WhileRussia
hasbeenpropagandisingitsmissiles,theSyrianmilitary,undermannedandundergunneda
fewmonthsago,hassuddenlymovedontotheoffensive.Earlierthisyear,wemay
remember,thissamearmywasbeingwrittenoff,theBasharal-Assadgovernmentsaidto
bereachingitsfinaldays.
Weemployedourownarmyofclichstomakethecaseforregimechange.TheSyrian
armywaslosingground-atJisral-ShugourandatPalmyra-andsowepredictedthatthe
wholeAssadstatehadreacheda"tippingpoint".
ThenalongcameVladimirPutinwithhisairandmissilefleetsandsuddenlythewhole
placeistransformed.WhilewehuffedandpuffedthattheRussianswerebombingthe
"moderate"rebels-moderateswhohadearlierceasedtoexistaccordingtoAmerica'stop
generals-we'vebeenpayingnoattentiontothemilitaryoffensivewhichtheSyrians
themselvesarenowstagingagainsttheNusraFrontfightersaroundAleppoandinthe
valleyoftheOrontes.
SyriancommandersarenowsettingthecoordinatesforalmosteveryRussianairstrike.
Theywereoriginallygivingbetween200and400coordinatesanight.Nowthefigure
sometimesreaches800.NotthattheRussiansaregoingaftereverymapreference,of
course.TheSyrianshavefoundthattheRussiansdonotwanttofireattargetsinbuilt-up
areastheyintendtoleaveburninghospitalsanddeadweddingpartiestotheAmericansin
Afghanistan.Thispolicycouldalwayschange,ofcourse.Noairforcebombscountries
withoutkillingcivilians.Norwithoutcrossingotherpeople'sfrontiers.
ButtheRussiansarenowtellingtheTurks-andbylogicalextension,thisinformationmust
gototheAmericans-theirflightcoordinates.Evenmoreremarkable,theyhavesetupa
hotlinecommunicationssystembetweentheirbaseontheSyrianMediterraneancoastand
theIsraeliministryofdefenceinTelAviv.MoreincrediblestillisthattheIsraelis-whohavea
habitoftargetingSyrianandIranianpersonnelneartheGolanHeights-havesuddenly
disappearedfromtheskies.Inotherwords,theRussiansareinvolvedinabigoperation,
notaone-monthwonderthatisgoingoninSyria.Anditislikelytocontinueforquiteatime.
TheSyrianswereoriginallyanxioustomovebackintoPalmyra,capturedbyIsislastMay,
buttheRussianshavedemonstratedmoreinterestintheAlepporegion,partlybecause
theybelievetheircoastalbasesaroundLattakiaarevulnerable.TheNusraFronthasfired
severalmissilestowardsLattakiaandTartousandMoscowhasnodesiretohaveitsair
forcetargetedontheground.ButtheSyrianarmyisnowdeployingitsfourmajorunits-the
1stand4thDivisions,RepublicanGuardsandSpecialForces-onthebattlefrontsandare
movingclosertotheTurkishborder.
RussianairstrikesaroundtheIsis"capital"ofRaqqamayormaynotbehurtingIsis,
althoughtheSyriansliketoboastthattheyhaveplentyofintelligencecomingtothemfrom
thecity.Interesting,iftrue,becauseIsispersonnelarespecialistsintorturingtodeath
"agentsoftheregime"anditwouldbeabravemantopassoninformationtoDamascus.
Yettravellers'talescanbetrue.There'saregularcivilianbusroutefromRaqqato
Damascus-buseshaveanoddhabitofcrossingfrontlinesinmostcivilwars-andif
passengersprefernottotalktojournalists,theywilltalkofwhattheyhaveseenwhenthey
gethome.
AllthisisonlythebeginningofMrPutin'sadventure.Heisprovingtobequiteatravellerto
theMiddleEast-andhasalreadymadefirmfriendsofanotherpillaroftheregion,that
President-FieldMarshalwhoscoredmorethan96percentatthepollsandwhocurrently
rulesEgypt.ButtheEgyptianarmy,fightingitslittlewarinSinai,nolongerhasstrategic
experienceofamajorwar.Nor,despitetheirdallianceintheairoverYemen,Libya,Syria
andothertargetsofopportunity,dothepresentmilitaryauthoritiesinSaudiArabia,the
EmiratesandJordanhavemuchunderstandingofhowarealwarisfought.Libya'sown
armyisinbits.Iraq'smilitaryhasscarcelyearnedanymedalsagainstitsIslamistenemies.
Butthereisonefactorwhichshouldnotbeoverlooked.
Ifitwins-andifitholdstogetherandifitsmanpower,whichisadmittedlyatalowlevel,can
bemaintained-thentheSyrianmilitaryisgoingtocomeoutofthiscurrentwarasthemost
ruthless,battle-trainedandbattle-hardenedArabarmyintheentireregion.Woebetideany
ofitsneighbourswhoforgetthis.
[returntoContents]
#6
MoscowTimes
October19,2015
ForeignInvestmentinRussianCommercialPropertyHits7-YearHigh
ByAnastasiaBazenkova
ForeigninvestmentinRussiancommercialpropertyhashitaseven-yearhighastheweak
rublehasmadethemarketmoreattractiveforinternationalcompanies,theRBC
newspaperreportedFriday,citingarecentmarketstudy.
Foreigncapitalaccountedfor42percentofinvestmentinthecommercialrealestate
marketinthefirstninemonthsoftheyear,thehighestratesince2008,whenforeigncapital
wasusedin77percentofthedealsoverthesameperiod,areportbyrealestateagency
Cushman&Wakefieldshowed,accordingtothenewspaper.
Outof$2billioninvestedincommercialpropertyinRussiabetweenJanuaryand
September,foreigninvestorsputup$848million,thereportsaid.
Cushman&Wakefield'sanalystsattributetheincreasedinterestfromforeigninvestorsin
RussiancommercialrealestatetothedevaluationoftheRussiancurrency,whichhaslost
morethan40percentofitsvaluesincethebeginningoflastyear.
Forforeigncompanies,theruble'sfallwasapositivesignaltoconcludedeals,Mikhail
Mindlin,amemberofCushman&Wakefield'sboardofdirectorsinRussia,toldRBC.
WhileforeigninvestorsintheRussianrealestatemarketareactiveasever,thetotal
amountofinvestmentincommercialpropertythisyearhasbeenmuchlowerthanlastyear.
InvestmentincommercialpropertyinRussiadroppedby44percentinthefirstninemonths
oftheyearcomparedtothesameperiodin2014,RBCcitedthereportassaying.The
sharpoveralldeclineiscausedmostlybyadropininvestmentfromRussiancompanies,
Cushman&Wakefielddatashowed.
Inthefirstninemonthsoftheyear,Russianinvestorsspent$1.2billiononcommercialreal
estateinthecountry,$1.8billiondownfromthesameperiodlastyear.Theyarewaitingfor
themarkettohitthebottomandareinnohurrytopurchaseproperty,MindlintoldRBC.
Themostattractivesegmentforcommercialrealestateinvestorsisofficespace,where47
percentofthetotalamountofinvestmentwasseeninthefirstfivemonthsoftheyear,the
Kommersantnewspaperreportedlastweek,citingdatafromrealestateconsultancy
ColliersInternational.
[returntoContents]
#7
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
October19,2015
Russiannationalistsinretreatasgovernmentappliespressure
AtemporarybanhasbeenimposedonthesolelargeassociationofRussiannationalists,
withtheprosecutor'sofficedemandingthatitberecognizedasextremist.RBTHasks
activistsandobserverswhatishappeningwiththenationalistmovementinRussia,and
whyitisnowcallingitselfthegovernment's"newenemy."
YekaterinaSinelschikova,RBTH
TwoyearsagoitseemedasiftheKremlinandRussia'svariousnationalistgroupswere,if
notahappycouple,thenatleastcontenttobeinthesameroom.Theirshared
conservativevaluesandstaunchchampioningofallthings"Russian"madethemnatural
allies.ButeversincethecrisisinUkrainefirstbeganinearly2014,therelationshiphas
beenunraveling.
InAugustthisyeartheMoscowProsecutor'sOfficetemporarilysuspendedtheactivityof
theRusskiye("Russians")nationalistmovement,demandingthatthecourtrecognizeitas
extremistandbanitinRussia.
Thereasonforthesuspensionisthat,accordingtotheprosecutor'soffice,thedocuments
illustratingthemovement'splansare"aimedatexcitingenmity"towardspeoplebasedon
theirnationalityand"containcallsforanationalliberationfighttocreateaRussiannational
state."
RusskiyeleaderDmitryDemushkin,againstwhomalawsuithasbeenfiled,toldRBTHthat
heiswaitingtobearrested"forsomefictitiousact"andAlexanderBelov,anothernationalist
leader,iswaitingtobesentencedtoajailterm.
Whilethenationalistsbelievethattheirranksarebeingpurged,expertsareinclinedtocall
thisa"progressivedecline"andnotethatthenationalistshavebeenunabletorecoverfrom
theinnerschismthatdividedthemovementovertheconflictinUkrainethatbeganin2014.
Asaresultofthesplit,asignificantpartoftheassociationproclaimeditssupportforthe
pro-RussianrebelsineasternUkraine'sDonbassregion,butanotherpartsidedwithKiev
underthesloganofRussian-UkrainianSlavicunity.Duringthe2014RussianMarch,anow-
traditionalannualrallyforRussiannationalistsorganizedinmajorcitiesacrossthecountry,
theydividedthemselvesintotwocolumns.
However,expertssaythatitwasnotUkrainealonethatgeneratedthecrisiswithinthe
movement.
Adeclineorathreat
ThefactthattheRussiannationalistmovementisinprofounddeclinetodayissomething
thatnotonlydetachedobserversbelieve-eventhemovement'sideologistsagree.
"Themovementdoesn'thaveanypoliticalperspective,practicallytheentirefieldhasbeen
burnedandthesecurityforcesarefinishingoffthewounded,"saidDemushkin,who
believesthattheauthoritiesdecidedtomopupthenationalists"justincase."Accordingto
Demushkin,thegovernmentisafraidthatradicalnationalistsmayjoinforceswithanti-
governmentprotesters.
"Inthemselves,itseems,theydonotrepresentadanger.They'vebecomerathersilent.But
whentheyreturnfromtheDonbasstoRussia,thisisapotentialthreat,"saidAlexander
Verkhovsky,directoroftheSovaanalyticalcenterandanexpertonnationalismand
xenophobia.
AccordingtoVerkhovsky,severalthousandnationalistswenttofightonthesideofpro-
RussianrebelsineasternUkraineandareunlikelytobepleasedwiththefactthatthe
conflictintheDonbassiscomingtoaclose.
"ItcannotberuledoutthatuponreturningtoRussiatheywillwanttoadheretosomekindof
radicalpolicy,whichiswhythegovernmentistryingtosuppressalltypesofradicalgroups,
includingthoseinspiredbyStalin,"hesaid.
Leftwithoutanagenda
YetobserverssaythatthecontradictionsrelatedtotheUkrainianissuearenotcapableof
destroyingthenationalistsasaforce.
"What'schangedinthelastyearisthatthemovementhasstoppedarticulatinga
constructiveagenda,"saidSergeiProstakov,acollaboratorattheCenterofEthno-Political
Studies.
AccordingtoProstakov,eventhoughovertheprevious10-15years"thegovernmentwould
juststealtheirslogans,"themovementstillusedtocreatesomethingnew,rightupuntilthe
eventsof2014,whichseemedtodisorientthemajorityofRussiannationalists.
"Theyrealizedthattheirinterestsforthefirsttimecorrespondedtogovernmentpolicy.This
istheaccessionofCrimea,thatis,theideaoftherestorationoftheSovietUnionandthe
protectionofRussiansintheDonbass,"saidProstakov.
However,hepointedout,thisdidnotgivethenationalistsanypoliticalpoints:Theywere
simplyusedasextras.
Verkhovskyagrees:Thesystemicnationalists,suchasthepro-governmentRodinaParty,
theAnti-MaidanMovementandtheGreatFatherlandParty,havebeenleftwithoutany
politicalperspectives.
"Obviously,theyarenotunderanypressurebutitseemsthatthegovernmentisnotreally
helpingthem.Youcantellbytheirpitiableresultsattheregionalelections,"saidVerkhovsky.
Thenewenemy
DmitryDemushkinseesanother,significantchangeintheRussiannationalists'position:
Nowtheyarepartoftheopposition.
"Until2010theRussiannationalistsinclusivelywereneveragainstthegovernment,@he
said."Butthenourorganizationswerebanned(theSlavicUnionandtheSlavicForce
groupsarerecognizedasextremists-RBTH)andlawsuitswerefiledagainstthe
organizations'leaders,firstjustone-timecases,nowmoreandmoreoften.
"NowthenationalistshaveturnedawayfromtheKremlinandthisisexclusivelythe
government'sfault.Ithascreatedanenemyforitself,"saidDemushkin.
Lookingforward,noneoftheobserversinterviewedbyRBTHwereunabletosayexactly
whatwillbecomeofthesappednationalistmovementinthefuture.
"Russiannationalismisgoingthroughaheavycrisis,butallcrisesendinsomething.Itis
unlikelytodieasickman'sdeath,thisisimpossible,"saidAlexanderVerkhovsky,who
believestheradicalizationofthemovementisinevitable.
Meanwhile,SergeiProstakovbelievesthatNovember'sRussianMarchwillbeakey
yardstickforevaluatingthecurrentstateofthemovement.
"Lastyearthedemonstrationgatheredaminimalnumberofpeople[1,500,accordingtothe
police-RBTH],eventhoughinbettertimesthemarchwouldgatherabout10,000people,"
hesaid.
[returntoContents]
#8
Bloomberg
October18,2015
Russia'sAilingConsumersKeepDoorOpenforRateCuts
ByOttUmmelasandAnnaAndrianova
TheremaybeasilverliningfortheBankofRussiainanotherbatchofgrimconsumerdata.
WhileGovernorElviraNabiullinahassetacourseformonetaryeasingtomatchslowing
inflation,policymakerslastmonthpausedtheireasingcycleforthefirsttimein2015.The
scalesmaybetippinginfavorofanothercutthisyearasRussia'sconsumereconomy
continuestoweaken.Wagesadjustedforinflationfellforan11thmonthinSeptemberand
retailsalescontractedthemostin16years,theFederalStatisticsServiceinMoscowsaid
Mondayinastatement.
"Therearestrongdisinflationarytrends,includingfallingretailsales,vehiclesales,wages,
andhouseholddebt,"PerHammarlund,thechiefemerging-marketsstrategistatSEBABin
Stockholm,saidbye-mailbeforethedatarelease."Thisweaknesswillgiveplentyofroom
forthe"centralbank"tocutrates,aslongasoilpricesholdup."
Russianpolicymakershavestruggledtoconcocttherightpolicymixtosteerthecountry
outofitslongestrecessionintwodecades.Afreshboutofrubleweaknessforcedthe
centralbanktoholdoffoneasingpolicyafteritalreadyrolledbackmostofaDecember
emergencyrateincrease.Withinternationalsanctionsandlowoilpricesshacklingthe
economyoftheworld'slargestenergyexporter,Standard&Poor'slastweekforecasta
deepercontractionasitpredictsprivateconsumptionwillremainweaknextyear.
RubleDecline
Sincelastmonth'sratedecision,therublehasgained10percentagainstthedollaramida
revivalinemerging-marketriskappetite.Therublehasdepreciatedabout35percent
againstthedollarinthepast12months,thesecond-worstperformerbehindtheBrazilian
realamong24emerging-marketcurrenciestrackedbyBloomberg.Ittraded1.5percent
weakerat62.2630rublesperdollarat4.08p.m.Monday.Forward-rateagreementsare
signaling40basispointsofcutsinborrowingcostsduringthenextthreemonths,the
biggestbetssinceJuly.
Septemberrealwagesdeclined9.7percentfromayearagoafterarevised9percentdrop
inAugust,thestatisticsservicesaid.Themedianestimateof14economistssurveyedby
Bloombergwas9.8percent.Retailsalesdropped10.4percent,themostsinceAugust
1999,anddisposableincomesshrank4.3percent.
VTBanalystsAlexanderIsakovandPetrGrishinsaidinanoteOct.15that"furtherproofof
demandweakness,"includingunemploymentapproaching6percent,anannualdeclinein
realwagescloserto11percentoranacceleratingdeclineininvestmentsisneededtoshift
thebalancetowarda50basis-pointratecutatthecentralbankmeetingonOct.30.Other
conditionsincludetherubletradingatabout62againstthedollarandthebudgetstance
beingkepttight,theysaid.
Theunemploymentrateunexpectedlydeclinedto5.2percentfrom5.3percent,compared
withthe5.4percentmedianestimateof12economists.Fixed-capitalinvestmentdropped
5.6percentlastmonth,the21stconsecutivenegativereading,makingitthelongestsuch
stretchsinceatleast1995,whenBloombergstartedcompilingthefigures.
"Wenowanticipateaweaknessinprivateconsumptiontoextendinto2016,andanonly
marginalrecoveryincapitalspendingnextyear,helpedbyimprovedcorporateprofit
marginsandaslowdownindeleveraging,"S&PsenioreconomistTatianaLysenkosaidina
reportonOct.15.ThecreditevaluatornowseesRussia'seconomycontracting3.6
percentthisyear,followedby0.3percentgrowthin2016,shesaid.
[returntoContents]
#9
Kremlinchiefofstaff:Russiatodonothingagainstitsintereststogetsanctionslifted
MOSCOW,October19./TASS/.Russiawilldonothingthatcouldharmitsinterestsinorder
togetthewesternsanctionslifted,SergeyIvanov,thechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaff,
saidinanexclusiveinterviewwithTASS.
"Wewillneverdoanythingtoharmournationalinterestsjustforthesakeofseeingthe
sanctionslifted.Neverever!Itwasnotuswhotookthosemeasures,andwearenotgoing
todiscussinanyformatwhatisnecessaryforcancelingthem,"Ivanovsaid.
Hesaidtheliftingofanti-Russiasanctionsshouldnotbelinkedwiththerestorationofpeace
inUkraine.
"Iwouldavoidanylinkagehere.Areyoucertainthatthesanctionswillbeliftedfromuseven
afterimpeccablecompliancewithMinsk-2?Arethereanyguarantees?Personally,Ihave
bigdoubtsonthatscore.Thereisnoreasonwhyweshouldofferexcusesoraskfor
forgiveness,"Ivanovsaid.
Headmittedthat"thefinancialandeconomicsituationinthecountryisreallygrave."
"Thesanctionsdidcausecertainlosses.TheGDPisonthedecline,andnotontheascent.
Wedon'tdenythat.But!TherootcausefortheRussianeconomy'sslowdownisnot
sanctions,butthefallintheworldpricesofoilandgas,"hesaid.
"Iagreethatthishasdemonstratedagainourstrongdependenceonhydrocarbonsand
howverybadthisis.Butontheotherhand,we'vebeenabletorealizethevectoroffuture
actiontobetakentoeasethepressuresoftherawmaterialsfactor,"Ivanovadded.
Westexaggeratesconsequencesofsanctions,noregretsforG8
MoscowhasnoregretsfortheexpulsionfromtheG8,whiletheinfluenceofsanctionson
Russia'seconomyisexaggeratedbytheWest,SergeyIvanovwentontosay.
"TheWestgrosslyexaggeratestheinfluenceofthelatestsanctionsontheRussian
economy.True,theydoposecertainhindrancestous,itwouldbefoolishtodenythe
obvious,butIwillsayagainandagainthatinthepastwelivedthroughfargreater
problems,"Ivanovsaid.
"AttemptstopunishRussiaaresenselessandineffective,"hesaid."Wesawsanctions
takenagainstusbackduringtheruleoftheRomanovdynasty.There'snothingnewabout
them."
"Tradebarrierswereputupandfinancialobstructionsposedagainandagain...Those
measureswerefarharsherthanthecurrentones.Butwemanaged.Wedidn'tgetscared
inthepast,andwewillstayfirmthistime,"Ivanovsaid.
"AlexanderSolzhenytsinsaidperfectlywellthatfromtimeimmemorialtheWesthadfelt
scaredofRussia'senormity,"headded.
IvanovstressedthattheG8iscertainlynottheplacewhereRussiawouldliketogetback.
"Inthe1990sRussiaspentmuchtimeandeffortforthesakeofbeingadmittedtothisclub
ofselectfewiteventuallygotthereonlytoseeforitselfthattheG8wasnolongercapable
ofaddressinganyofthefundamentalissueshumanitywasconfrontedwithatthecurrent
stage,"hesaid.
"Theworldtodayisverydifferent.TheG20-that'stheworthylevel.Itistherethattruly
importantthemesarebeingdiscussedandsolutionmechanismscanbedevised,"Ivanov
added.
"HereisaSyria-relatedexample.Theneedforeliminatingthearsenalsofchemical
weaponsinthatcountrywasagreedonwithintheG20format,andnottheG8orG7group.
SotherenoregretsaboutthedemiseoftheG8,believeme,"heconcluded.
SanctionsagainstRussialedtosplitofelitesbutinWest
AccordingtoSergeyIvanov,thesanctionsagainstMoscowhaveledtothesplitofelitesnot
inRussiabutintheWest.
"Itseemstomethattheeliteshavesplitabroadratherthaninourcountry,"Ivanovsaid.
"Haven'tyounoticedthatwhenofficials-ministers,speakersand,allthemoreso,
presidentsortheheadsofgovernments-speak,theycriticizeRussiaunmercifullywitha
frownontheirfacesandaquiveringvoice,"hesaid.
"Butwhenpoliticianswhohavelefttheupperechelonsofpowerforvariousreasonsstartto
speak,thetonalityoftheirspeecheschangesdramatically.Foreignanddefenseministers
andotherreputablepersonswhohavelefttheirpostssuddenlybegintoopenlyshow
solidaritywithourpositiononmanyissues,"Ivanovadded.
"Thissuggeststhatyouareobligedtotalkthiswayandnootherwaywhileyouarein
power.Itisonlyafteryouresignthatyoucanexpressyourownthoughtsandviews.Thisis
notforbiddenbutonlyforex-officialsandnotforpersonsholdingposts,"hesaid."Those
whoreturntopower,starttocriticizeuswithanewvigor.Ihavelonggrownaccustomedto
this.Andlookatitwithhumor."
Ivanovalsosaidhedislikedtheword"elites"."Tomymind,thiswordcanbeusedforthose
whohavedonesomethinguseful,necessaryandtangibleforthehomecountryinthe
courseofseveralgenerations,"hesaid.
"Somerepresentativesofthebusinesscircles(butnotelites)havesufferedfromthe
sanctions,"headded."Buteverythingisrelative.Ibelieve,althoughIdonotassert,that
yachtsawayfromthem."
"Asforhowsomebusinessmenlookatothersandhow,itisbettertoaddressthisquestion
everythingisunderstandabletoeveryone.Butthisismypresumption,"Ivanovsaid.
"Strictlyspeaking,inthecontextoftheinfluenceofsanctionsonbusiness,itismore
appropriatetotalknotaboutthefreedomoftravelacrosstheworldbut,say,aboutthe
restrictedaccesstothecapitalmarket,which,indeed,hasseriouseconomic
consequencesforcompaniesincludedinthesanctionslists."
[returntoContents]
#10
TheJordanTimes
www.jordantimes.com
October18,2015
AreSanctionsSavingRussia?
ByRichardWerverandVladimirYakunin
RichardA.WernerisProfessorofInternationalBankingattheUniversityofSouthampton
andauthorofNewParadigminMacroeconomics.VladimirI.YakuninisChairinState
PolicyatLomonosovMoscowStateUniversity,FoundingPresidentoftheWorldPublic
Forum,andformerChairmanofRussianRailways.
MOSCOW-TheeconomicsanctionsimposedonRussiabytheWestinMarch2014have
undoubtedlybeenpainful.Buttheyhavesofarfailedtoachievethegoalofweakening
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sposition.Infact,theymayhavetheoppositeeffect,
leavingRussia-anditspresident-evenstrongerthanbefore.
EuropeanUnioncountriesareestimatedtohavelostabout$100billionintradewith
Russia,hittingthelikesofBavariandairyfarmersandeasternGermanindustrialexporters.
RussianGDP,whichgrewmodestlyin2014,contractedby4.6%inannualtermsinthe
secondquarterofthisyear.TherublelostmorethanhalfofitsUSdollarvalueinthe
secondhalfoflastyear,fuelinginflation,whichincreasedby15.6%yearonyearinJuly.
Butinflationnowseemstohavepeaked,andtheeffectsofthedropinoilandgasprices
weremitigatedbytheUSdollar'sappreciation,sothatthevalueofRussia'sforeign
reservesactuallyincreased,reaching$362billioninJune(13%ofwhichisingold).And
despitebelt-tighteninginRussia,Putinismorepopularthanever.
Therationalebehindeconomicsanctionsisstraightforward:freetradeandfreemarkets
delivergrowth(andthuspoliticalsupportforthegovernment),whereasrestrictionschoke
offgrowth(andthuserodesupportforthegovernment).Thisemphasisonfreetradeand
freemarketswasacentraltenetofnineteenth-centuryBritishclassicaleconomics.It
remainsacoremessageoftoday'sdominantneoclassicalschool-embodiedintheso-
called"WashingtonConsensus,"adoptedacrosstheworldundertheInternationalMonetary
Fund'sadvice-whichclaimsthatthekeytoeconomicdevelopmentistoopenup,
deregulate,liberalize,andprivatize.
Butthetheoryisfundamentallyflawed.Noeconomicpowerhaseverdevelopedsolelyon
thebasisoflaissez-fairepolicies.TheeconomicriseoftheUnitedKingdom,forexample,
washeavilydependentonstrategicprotection,industrialpolicy,tariffs,andnon-tarifftrade
barriers.
TheUK'sindustrialprowessoriginatedwiththetextileindustry.Thecountry'sleaders
realizedthattheexportofrawmaterials,mainlywool,wouldbeinadequatetospur
economicdevelopment.Forthat,Englandwouldhavetomoveupthevalue-addedladder,
byimportingrawmaterialsandexportingfinishedgoods.
SoEngland'sleadersdevisedanindustrialpolicy,whichentailedbringinginFlemishtextile
weaverstoprovideknow-howtoBritishfirms.Moreover,theyerectedtradebarriers:By
banningtheexportofrawwoolandtheimportoffinishedwoolproducts,Indiantextiles,
whichwereoftensuperiorandcheaper,couldnotcompetewithdomesticoutput.They
adoptednavigationlawsthatrestrictedforeignships'accesstoBritishportsandeven
enactedademand-boostinglawrequiringthedeadtobeburiedinwoolens.Ultimately,the
mechanizationofthetextileindustryusheredintheIndustrialRevolution,andmass
productionandexportsunderpinnedthedevelopmentoftheworld'slargestmaritimefleet.
Inthemid-nineteenthcentury,theGermaneconomistFriedrichListhighlightedtherolethat
suchpoliciesplayedintheUK'sdevelopment.Inlinewithhisadvice,theUnitedStates,
Germany,andJapanemployedjudicioustradeprotectionandindustrialpolicies,while
workingactivelytosupportnascentsectors-astrategythatenabledthemtodevelop
rapidlyandevenovertakeBritain.
Restrictionsalsoprovedeffectivetospureconomicdevelopment:In1812,whentheUK
declaredwarandimposedatradeembargoontheUS,importsubstitutioncaused
Americanmanufacturingtoflourish.Whentheembargowasliftedandtradetariffswere
reduced,USmanufacturingfloundered-until1828,whennewBritishtariffsboostedUS
manufacturingagain.Likewise,duringWorldWarI,aBritishtradeembargospurredthe
developmentofGermanhigh-techindustriesduetothedemandforsubstitutes.
Ofcourse,embargoescanhaveadevastatingeffectwhenacountrylackstheresources
neededforimportsubstitution.ThatiswhyeconomicsanctionsweresodamagingforIran
and,earlier,forIraq'spopulation.
But,foracountrylikeRussia,withitsabundantnaturalresources,technologicalexpertise,
andskilledworkforce,sanctionscanhavetheoppositeeffect.TheSovietUnionstruggled
tocapitalizeonthesefactors,owingtocommunism'sweakincentivestructure.Today,by
contrast,Russiahasacapitalistsystemthatoffersconsiderablebenefitstothosewho
adaptbesttotherestrictions.
Inshort,Russiahasallitneedstothrive,despite-orbecauseof-thesanctions.But
turningopportunityintorealityrequiresRussiatopursueaneconomictransformation.
Neoclassicaltradetheoryisbasedontheconceptofcomparativeadvantage:countries
shouldcapitalizeontheirrelativestrengths,fromtechnologicalprowesstoresource
endowments.But,asEnglishleadersknewandastheexperienceofmanyAfricanand
LatinAmericancountrieshasshown,simplyexportingrawmaterialsisinadequateto
propeldevelopment.Historically,themosteffectivedevelopmentpolicyhascenteredon
governmentinterventiontoestablishhigher-value-addeddomesticindustries.Inprevious
decades,Japan,Taiwan,SouthKorea,andChinahavealltakenthispath.
ForRussia,movingupthevalue-addedladdershouldnotbedifficultithasallitneedsto
manufacturethefinishedproductsthatitpreviouslyimported.Infact,importsubstitution
hasalreadyincreasedproductivityinseveralkeysectors:engineering,petrochemicals,light
industry,pharmaceuticals,andagriculture.Annualexportsofhigh-value-addedgoodsrose
by6%inthefirstquarterofthisyear.
Furthermore,Russia'sleadershiphasacceleratedcooperationwiththeotherBRICS
economies(Brazil,India,China,andSouthAfrica),andPutinrecentlyannouncedambitious
planstoboostdomesticdemand.
TheWest'ssanctionsagainstRussiamaynotonlyfailtochangetheUkrainesituationthey
maywellspurthecountry'slong-awaitedstructuraltransformation.IfRussiasuccessfully
replicatesthecredit-guidanceregimeusedbyEastAsia'seconomies,whileincreasing
managerialefficiency,yetanothereconomicmiracleispossible.
[returntoContents]
#11
http://readrussia.com
October16,2016
Russia:aTaxiDriver'sVersion
ByJamesPearce
WhenlastintheUK,Igotoffthetrainintoataxifortheshortdrivetomychildhoodhome.
Mydriver,Ardashir,askedwereI'dcomefrom."Russia"."Russia?!Wow,Iloveyour
president,he'sasmartmanwhoisdoingtherightthingandloveshiscountry."
Ofcourse,I'mnotRussianbybirth,butImustadmithowrefreshingitwastohearthisin
theUKacountrynotcreditedforagreatdealofknowledgeaboutRussiaordevotingmuch
affectiontothecountryasawhole.
Putinisn'tmyfavouritepolitician,butbeingconstantlylecturedabouthowevilheisevery
timeIgohomegetsratherdull.SoIplayedalong,andthediscussioneventuallydeveloped
ontoSyria.I'mgladitdidbecauseArdashirwasfromIran,andhadacompletelydifferent
viewpointtomostfrommyhometown.
HehadanaturalempathyforSyrians,himselfbeingaShiaMuslim,andtoldmeoutright
"Assadisnotevil.Youknow,morepeoplehavediedbecauseofISISthanbecauseofhim.
InIraqtoo,morepeopledietodayonthestreetsthaninSaddam'stime.Thiscrisisistheir
[thewest's]fault."
Ardashirbelievedthatifitwasn'tforRussia'sinterferenceintheMiddleEast,thenitwould
bemadeupofroboticpuppetstatesthatyoucannotforcegroupsofpeople,withno
conceptofanationstate,intogeopoliticallyimaginedlinestheycannotcomprehendthat
askingthemtogiveuptheirpracticesinfavourofwaystotallyalienisunrealisticandnever
goingtobethesolution.
Moreover,hebelievedthatitisabouttimeRussiacanfinally'solve'thesituation,because
Syriaandthewestsimplycan't.Manypoliticalobserversmayrecallinthelasttwomonth's
thatPutinhasmetwithmanyMiddleEasternleadersandheldtalksregardingthecrisis.It
showsthereisadiplomaticboneintheRussianbody.Thoughlet'ssavethediscussionon
'Russiatheguardianofdemocracy'foranotherday.
ForArdashir,RussiahasacommonvaluesharedamongmanyMiddleEasterncountries"
[we]don'tjustbelieveourwaysarebetter.It'sthatwesternideascannotbeappliedtoour
society-Putingetsit,becauseRussiaisthesame...together,weshowsolidarityandwant
theworldtoseethatnoamountofforceorintimidationwillmakeusbackdown".
Astheconversationcontinued,wewerenolongerspeakingEnglish.Icametolearnthat
ArdashirlivedinRussiabackin1996andworkedtherefortwoyears.Somemightsayhe
gotoutattherighttimesincein1998theeconomyhittherailingshardandlifeforthe
majorityofthepopulationbecameunbearable.Heinsistshehadagreattimeneverthe
less.
ThecomplimentskeptcomingArdashirclaimshehadnevermetnicerpeoplethanthe
Russians.That"you[Russians]areacaringandprincipledpeople".Itookthisopportunity
toaskhimsomethingpersonal:
"Butsurely,youmusthaveencountereddiscriminationatsomepoint?"Icertainlyhave(not
thatitcausesmeanysleeploss).Hisresponsewasremarkable:
"Listen,noamountofracismorxenophobiccommenttookawaytheimmensebeautyof
thecountryandthepassionofitspeople.InEngland,peoplecallmeapakiitjustshows
howemptythecultureasawholeisandhowidiotictheyare.AtleastafterRussianscall
me'ponayekhali',theyreturntotheircopyofSolzhenitsynorPushkin.Englishpeoplefall
outofmycabdrunk,insulttheirbestfriendatthebarwhenthey'reinthetoiletandthen
lecturetheworldonhowtolive."
YoumaythenwonderwhyhelivesinacountrylikeEnglandatall.Inhisownwords:
"moneytalksandbullsh*twalks."
SoIfinallyarrivedhomeandaskedhimhowmuch?Let'sjustsayhegavemeagenerous
discount.BeingRussiancertainlyhaditsbenefits.
ButwhatArdashirshows,isthatthereisnoonetruthtoanystory.Often,tounderstandthe
other'sviewpoint,onemustclimbupontotheirpillarandseetheworldinthesamewayas
themdoesthishappenwiththecaseofRussiaoften?
Thefactis,therearemanylikeArdashiracrosstheMiddleEastand,indeed,throughout
Russia,whosimplyfeelliketheirlivesarebeingintrudedupon.Thattheirsituationisbeing
deliberatelymisunderstoodforsomebodyelse'spersonalgain.
WecanhaveahealthydebateonRussia'sactionsinglobalconflicts,butshehas
supportersEastandWestoneverycontinent.Manyofwhom,feelthesamesenseof
pressureandintimidationbywesterncountriestogoalongwiththeirstatusquo.
Likemanyinhisprofession,Ardashirwasaworldlygentlemanwhohasbeenaroundthe
blockafewtimes.Beingdroppedhomebyhiminsteadofatoothlesscockneywith
controversialviewsonimmigration,madeforabetterwelcomehome.
[returntoContents]
#12
HuffingtonPost
October14,2015
NoRussianQuagmireintheMiddleEast
BySarwarKashmeri
AdjunctProfessorPolSci-NorwichUniversityFellow-ForeignPolicyAssoc.
CriticismofRussia'sprojectionofforceintoSyriaisoftenlacedwithpredictionsofan
impendingRussianquagmire,inthefashionoftheSovietmisadventureofthe1970sin
Afghanistan.Nothingcouldbefartherfromthetruth.Mr.Putinhasmadeastrategic,well
calibratedandthoughtoutmoveontheMiddleEastchessboardandwillsoonreap
significantgeopoliticalrewardsfromit.
ThemassivesovietinvasionofAfghanistanin1979wasaimedatoccupyingthecountry
andcrushinganinternalAfghanrebellionagainsttheSovietsupportedgovernment.
Afghanistan'sruggedmountainousterrain,coupledwiththelegendaryAfghanhatefor
foreignoccupiers,andthestealthyprovisionofsophisticatedU.S.arms,putanendtothat.
Russia'sobjectivesfromitsmilitarythrustintheMiddleEast,ontheotherhand,arefar
morelimitedandachievablewhichiswhatmakesthemofsuchstrategicconsequence.
Mr.Putin'scalculationsarebasedonfivefactsontheground:
First,theUnitedStateshasworkeditselfintoaquagmireintheMiddleEast.Ithaspublically
declaredthat"Assadmustgo,"andhaspromisedto"degradeanddestroytheIslamic
State,"withoutcommittingthemilitaryforcestoachieveeitheroutcome.Predictably,Mr.
AssadisstillthereandtheIslamicStatehasgrownbiggerandstronger.Mr.Putinknows
thereisnoappetiteintheUnitedStatesforarobustmilitaryengagement,inapartofthe
worldwhereAmericanolongerhasanyvitalnationalinterests.
Second,Mr.PutiniskeenlyawareofthedamagebeingwreakedinEuropebytheunending
tideofrefugeesthatnowthreatenEuropeaneconomiesandthecohesivenessofthe
EuropeanUnion.TheEuropeansrealizeapermanent,longtermsolutiontotheirrefugee
nightmareliesinmakingthewarravagedMiddleEastsaferforitscitizens,notinbuilding
fences.
Third,Russia'sclient,Syria'sPresidentBasharal-Assadhasbeensteadilylosinggroundin
Syria'scivilwar,asituationthatthreatensland-lockedRussia'sonlyforeignnavalbaseand
itsMiddleEastintelligenceoperations,asituationthatRussiaisobligedtocorrect.
Fourth,Mr.PutinrecognizestheattractionoftheIslamicStateforradicalizedcitizensinthe
MuslimRepublicsoftheRussianFederation,thousandsofwhosecitizensnowfightwith
theIslamicStateandwillsomedayreturntodirecttheirbattle-hardenedskillsagainst
Russia.
Andfinally,thedirestraitoftheRussianeconomy,thatreliesalmostcompletelyonglobal
energypriceswhichhavebeeninfreefallforoverayear.ThecollapseinRussia'smain
incomestreamismagnifiedbyWesterneconomicsanctionswhichhavecutoffRussia's
accesstooutsidecapital.
Putinhasputallofthistogetherandcomeupwithaplanto,atonce,offerawayouttothe
ditheringAmericans,resolvethepressuresonquiveringEuropeans,saveRussia'salliance
anditsmilitary/intelligenceinterestsintheMiddleEast,destroytheIslamicState,and
entrenchRussiaintotheMiddleEast'spowerequation.
RussiahasenteredtheMiddle-EastfrayinalliancewithIraqandIran,andwithsufficient
militarypowertoseriouslydamagetheanti-AssadforcesandthoseoftheIslamicState.My
forecast:Mr.Putinwillachievesignificantsuccessonthebattlefieldwithin30-60days.He
willthenoffertojoinforceswiththeU.S.-ledcoalitiontodestroywhatremainsoftheIslamic
State,and,significantly,tohelpsetup"safe-zones"inSyria,inwhichSyrianandother
refugeescanfindahavenuntilconditionsintheirhomelandsimproveandtheycanreturn
home.TheideaofsafezonesinSyriahasalreadybeenfloatedintheUnitedNationsbythe
EuropeansbuthadbeendeemedimpracticalbecauseofRussianopposition.
ForAmericansandEuropeanstheRussianofferwillbealifelinetheycannotrefuse.
EuropeanswilljumpattheopportunitytoshuntthefloodofrefugeesawayfromEurope
whiletheU.S.willjumpattheopportunitytodestroytheIslamicStatewithoutcommittingits
groundforces,andtofinallywinddownafruitlessandseeminglyendlessmilitary
commitmentthatiscostingAmericantaxpayersmillionsofdollarsaday.
Inreturn,Mr.Putinwilldemandaseatatthetabletohelpdeterminetheregion'sfuturehe
willalsodemandthatthefutureofSyriaandMr.AssadbelefttoRussia,andohyes,
economicsanctionsrelief.TheU.S.maybalkatsanctionsrelief,butEuropeanpressure
willensurethatMr.Putingetsit.
HardlyaRussianquagmire!
[returntoContents]
#13
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
October18,2015
WeekTwooftheRussianMilitaryInterventioninSyria
OptionsforDaesh,theEmpireandRussia
ByTheSaker
TheRussianoffensiveinSyriaisstillverymuchinfullswinganditishardtomakesense
ofwhatisreallyhappeningorhoweffectiveithasbeen.AccordingtotheSyrians,40%ofall
theinfrastructureof"Daesh"(meaningISIS+al-Qaeda+allthehundredsofsmallergroups
fightingtogetheragainsttheSyriangovernment)hasbeendestroyed.Russiansourcesare
lessenthusiasticandspeakofaratherslowandhesitantSyrianoffensive.Sofar,nomajor
victoryhasbeenreported,butsinceallsidesagreethattheRussianaircampaignis
devastatinglyeffectiveandhighlydisruptiveforDaesh,Ithinkthatthereisagoodprobability
thattheSyrianswillsoonachieveamajorsuccess.Ifnot,thentheIraniansmostdefinitely
havethecapabilitytotrulytipthebalance.Sothismightbeagoodtimetolookatwhat
optionsDaeshwillhave.
HowDaeshcanadapttothenewcircumstances
First,upuntilnow,Daeshbasicallycouldmovearoundatnightwithtotalimpunitybecause
theSyrianAirForcesimplydidnothavethetechnologytodetectandengageDaeshunits
atnight.ThishasnowchangedsincealltheRussianaircraft(rotaryandfixedwing)
engagedinthecurrentcampaignarefullynightcapable.ThisisamajorproblemforDaesh
whichwillnowhavetooperateinanextremelydangerousenvironment24hoursaday.The
solution?Camouflageanddispersal.Daeshforceswillhavetolearntopaymuchmore
attentiontoavoidingdetection,includingradiodetection,andtheywillhavetoavoidas
muchaspossibleanydetectableconcentrations.Notaneasytask,forsure,butonewhich
hasbeensuccessfullylearnedbyothersinthepast.
Second,Daeshforceswillhavetoadapttoguerrilla-style'hitandrun'kindsofattacks.Until
now,bothsideswerewillingtoengageinabizarrekindof"trenchwarfare"inwhicheach
sidewoulddiginandshelltheother.NowthatRussianbombersandcloseairsupport
aircraftcanbecalledinbytheSyrianfrontlinecommanders,thiswillbecomevery
dangerousforDaesh,probablyforcingthemtoswitchtofaster,ambushwarfare.
Third,mostsourcesagreethatcurrentlyDaeshcontrolsroughly80%ofthelandand20%
ofthepopulation.ThisismostlyduetothesizeoftheSyrianarmedforceswhichare
stretchedtoothintoholdontolightlypopulatedareas.Daeshcanusethattoitsadvantage
andtrytomovearoundanyattackingSyrianforcesandthenambushanyunitswhose
flanksandsupplyroutesarenotsecured.TheSyrianswillhavetobeverycarefulnottofall
intoa"cauldron"trapliketheUkrainiansinNovorussia.
Fourth,ifthingsbecomereallyuglyforDaesh,theycanstartusingtheTurkish,Iraqi,
LebaneseandJordanianborderstohidefromtheSyrian/Iranianforcesandenjoythekind
ofsafeheaventheAfghanshadinPakistanduringtheSovietinvasion.
Fifth,DaeshmightdowhattheUkrainianshavedoneandorganizeda'Russianatrocity'
falseflag,maybethebombingofapediatricclinicorhospital.Theycouldeventrya
"Russianchemicalattackinfeelingrefugees".Thecorporatemediawillbemorethan
happytopickupandspreadthestory,nomatterhowridiculous.
Finally,wecanbeabsolutelycertainthatiftheSyrianmilitaryis"too"successful,atleast
fromthepointofviewoftheEmpire,thenallthe"friendsofSyria"willjoinforcesand
demanda"peaceconference"whosemainpurposewillbetosaveDaeshfromcomplete
destruction.ThisisthestrategyusedbytheWestwiththeMinsk-1andMinsk-2peacetalks
tosavetheUkronazijuntafrommilitarydefeat.
TheworldhasseennumerousexamplesofDaesh-likeforces(inmilitary,notpolitical,
terms)adaptingtoatechnologicallysuperiorenemy.Rightnow,thegovernment's
superiorityisprimarilyintheskies(thankstotheRuAF)andinintelligence(thankstothe
OsNazGRUunitsonthegroundandtheRussian"eyesandears"intheskyandinspace).
Withtime,however,Russiancouldbringinnewequipment(modernmultiplerocket
launchers,TOS-1heavyflame-throwers,newerarmorandartillerysystems)whichcan
makearealdifferencebutattheendoftheday,itwillbe'boots',inthesenseofinfantry,
whichwilldecidetheoutcome.WilltheSyriansandKurdsbeenoughtobreakDaeshorwill
theIraniansmakeamove?Ihonestlydon'tknow,butmybetisonIranandHezbollah
movingin.AsforaRussianintervention,Putinhasnowtotallyexcludedsuchapossibility.
OptionsrecommendedbyUSpoliticians
USpoliticianshavecomeupwithtwosuggestionstohelptheir"moderateterrorists":
supplyadvancedanti-airmissilestoDaeshandimposeano-flyzone.Iconsiderbothof
thesesuggestionshighlyimpracticalandverydangerous.
Deliveringadvancedanti-airmissiles:whichones?!Daeshalreadyhasman-portableair
defensesystems(MANPADS)liketheUSStingersandRussianIglas.Thesearefine
missiles,buttheydon'thavethereachtohitRussianaircraftwhichmostlyflyat5000m.
True,theycanhitalowflyingtargetlikeaSU-25onacloseairsupportmissionoraMi-24
helicopter.Bothoftheseaircrafthavebeenheavilymodifiedduringandafterthewarsin
AfghanistanandChechniaandtheyarewell-protectedagainstsuchattacks.Still,sooneror
lateraRussianaircraftwillgethitbysuchamissileanditisevenpossiblethatitwillbe
downed.DaeshalreadyhasthiscapabilityandsendingthemmoreMANPADsjustmakes
nosensebutisverydangerousconsideringthekindofuseanyterroristgroupcanmakeof
themagainstcivilianairliners.SyriaisnotAfghanistanandwearenotinthe1980s.
MANPADsaresimplynotlikelytomakeamajordifferenceinthiswar,especiallynotagainst
thekindofaircrafttheRussiansarecurrentlydeploying.
Ano-flyzone:againstwhom,Russianaircraft?Foronething,thiswouldbeinsanely
provocativeandthepotentialconsequencesoftheUSshootingdownaRussianaircraftare
trulyterrifying.Butthisalsobegsthequestionofwheresuchazonewouldbecreated.
HillaryandtheotherNeoconcraziesaresuggestingano-flyzoneovernorthernSyria.
Okay,whatifinresponseRussiadeclaresanothernoflyzoneovertherestofthecountry?
Thenwhat?SettingasidetheinsanityofactuallythreateningtoattackRussiainmilitary
terms,inlegaltermstheEmpirehasnomandatetodeclaresuchazonewhileRussiais
standingon100%legalgroundsshouldshedeclareone.AndiftheEmpirereallygoes
crazyanddeclaresthatitwillimposeano-flyzoneoverallofSyriayoucanbeabsolutely
certainthatS-300swill"suddenly"showupinsufficientnumberstomakethatanextremely
dangerousexercise.Bytheway,atthatpoint,theRussianscandeclarethatalltheS-300s
inSyriaaremannedexclusivelybySyrianpersonnelandareunderSyriancommandand
thustheywillbeabletoshootdownUSaircraftintotalimpunity(astheyalreadyhaveinthe
pastinVietnamandLebanon).
Ano-flyzonemakessenseagainstadefenselesscountry,butagainstonearmedwith
semi-modernormodernairdefensesthisisaverydangerousproposition.Iwanttobelieve
thatthereareenoughmentallysanemenintheJCSandPentagontorejectanyplanwhich
canenduptriggeringanuclearwarbetweenRussiaandtheUSA.
The"sulkingsuperpower"
Rightnow,theUSAappearstobecompletelyclueless.First,theyaccusedtheRussiansof
bombingthe"wrong"terrorists.TheRussiansthenreplied"okay,giveusalistof"bad
terrorists"targetsandwewilldestroythem".TheAmericansrefused.ThentheRussians
toldthem,"okaythen,inthiscaseatleastgiveusalistof"goodterrorist"targetsnotto
bomb,andwewillnothitthem".ButtheAmericansrefusedagain!Atthispoint,the
RussianbeganmakingopenlyfunoftheAmericansandPutinevendeclaredthathis
American"partners"have"mushforbrains".
Furthermore,theUSAhavealsorefusedaRussianinvitationtosendmilitaryspecialiststo
theRussianGeneralStaffandnowtheyhaveapparentlyevenrefusedtoreceiveaRussian
militarydelegationheadedbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevhimself!Idon'tthinkIhave
everheardofa"sulkingsuperpower"butthatiswhatweareapparentlyobservingright
now.HowlongUncleSamwillcontinuetopoutinhiscornerisanyone'sguess,butthisis
clearlynotasustainablepolicy.Infact,itisnopolicyatall.
IseenosignoftheUSAhavingthecouragetolookatrealityandactaccordingly.Notonlyis
theObamaAdministrationatanabsolutelyunprecedentedlevelofincompetenceand
intellectualmediocrity,theupcomingPresidentialelectionisjustmakingthingsworse:with
bonafidepsychopathslikeHillary,McCainorFiorinamakingirresponsiblestatementsonan
almostdailybasis,theWhiteHousemustconstantlydodgeaccusationsofbeing"toosoft
onRussia".AndsincenoUSpoliticiancanaffordtotelltheAmericanpublicthebasictruth
thattheUSisnotomnipotent,USpoliticiansarestuckinaneverendingracetoprovehow
"tough"theyareon"defense".AsfortheEuropeans,theyprobablyhavethebrainstosee
alloftheabove,butwhattheylackisthespinetosayanythingtotheirAmericanoverlords.
JustlikeintheUkraine,theWesthasmadecreatedatotalmessandnowiscompletely
cluelessastowhattodoaboutit.
Russianoptions
Contrarytotheimpressiongivenbythewesternmedia,theRussianforceinSyriaisstilla
verysmallone.ThemainreasonforthatisthattheairfieldnearLatakiasimplycannot
accommodatealargerRussianforce.AsfarasIknow,therearenootherlocationsinSyria
whereRussiacoulddeploymoreaircraft.True,thenumberofsortiesflownbythe
RussianshasbaffledUSAFexpertswhocouldneverhaveachievedthatkindoffigureswith
USaircraftandpilots.Still,theRussianforceissmallandvulnerable.Ofcourse,oneoption
fortheRussianswouldbetoexpandtheairfieldnearLatakia,butthatwouldtaketimeand
moreresourcesandmyunderstandingisthattheywanttoconsolidatetheircurrentairfield
first.However,asastop-gapmeasure,theRussianscoulduseRussian-basedbombers.If
IranallowsRussiatoconductin-airrefuelinginIranianairspaceorifIranallowsRussiato
useIranianairbases,thenmanymoreSU-34/SU-35SMorSU-34/SU-30SM"airforce
packages"thatcouldbeengagedinSyria.Intheory,RussiacouldevenprovideherTu-
22M3todelivergravitybombs,herTu-95MStodelivercruisemissilesandherTu-160to
delivereitheroneorboth.Idon'tthinkthatthereisanymilitarynecessitytousethese
strategicbombersrightnow,butitmightbeagoodideatodosoforpoliticalreasons-just
toflexsomemore'militarymuscle'andshowtheNeoconsthatRussiaisnottobemessed
with.Submarinelaunchedcruisemissileswouldalsowork,especiallyiflaunchedbya
RussiansubintheMediterraneanwhichtheUSNdidnotdetect.Whatiscertainisthatafter
thefirstvolleyofRussiancruisemissilestheUSwithdrewitsonlyaircraftcarrier-the
TheodoreRoosevelt-fromthePersianGulf.
[Sidebar:someRussianobservershavesuggestedthatthefirstvolleyofRussiancruise
missilesincluded26missilesbecausethe26thPresidentoftheUnitedStateswas
TheodoreRoosevelt,thenameoftheonlycarrierwhichwasinthePersianGulf,andthat
thiswasasubtlemessagetotheUSA.Dunno.Maybeso.Maybenot.Butifitisa
coincidence,itisaneatone.Whatiscertainisthatforthefirsttimeinaverylongwhile
therearenoUScarriersinthePersianGulf]
ThemainproblemwithanymilitaryescalationorincreasedRussianinvolvementisthat
PutinwouldhavetosellittotheRussianpublicwhich,atleastsofar,hasbeentotally
supportive,butwhichisgenerallywearyof"missioncreep"andopenendedmilitary
commitments(forexample,mostRussiansopposeanovertRussianinterventioninthe
Donbass).Sofar,theKremlinhasdoneasuperbPRjobexplainingthatDaeshisadirect
threattoRussiaandthatitwasbetterforRussiato"fightthemovertherethanoverhere".
Thislogic,however,ispredicatedontheideathataverylimitedRussianinterventioncantip
thebalance.Thereisaveryfineconceptuallinebetweentippingthebalanceandfighting
someoneelse'swarandthatissomethingtheKremlinisacutelyawareof.Hopefully,this
linewillneverbecrossed.
[returntoContents]
#14
MiddleEastEye
www.middleeasteye.net
October16,2015
Obamawon'tadmittherealtargetsofRussianairstrikes
NooneisdiscussingtherealitythattheRussianoffensiveistargetingthebiggestmilitant
threattotheAssadregime
ByGarethPorter
GarethPorterisanindependentinvestigativejournalistandwinnerofthe2012Gellhorn
Prizeforjournalism.HeistheauthorofthenewlypublishedManufacturedCrisis:The
UntoldStoryoftheIranNuclearScare.
TheUSresponsetoRussia'snewSyrianmilitarycampaigninsupportoftheAssadregime
hasstruckaposeofmoralsuperioritybyarguingthattheRussianshavenotbeentargeting
theIslamicStatebutratherthenon-ISISSyrianoppositiontotheAssadregime.
ThatUSresponseissuperficiallyaccuratebutdeliberatelymisleading.Althoughthe
RussiansarenotfocusingontargetsinISIS-controlledterritory,thereisaverygood
reason:itisnotISISbuttheforcesalignedwithal-Qaeda'sSyrianfranchise,Jabhatal-
Nusraoral-NusraFront,thatposethemostimmediatethreattotheveryexistenceofthe
Assadregime.
InaseriesofstatementsontheRussianmilitarycampaign,theUSDefenceDepartment
hashammeredtheRussiansfornottargetingISISasMoscowinitiallyclaimed-lateronthe
Russianrhetoricshiftedto"terrorists".TheUSstatementsstronglyimpliedthatitwasthe
US-backed"moderate"SyriangroupsopposedtotheAssadregimethatarebeing
attacked.
MajornewsmediahavetakenthesamelineincoveringtheRussianoffensive.Inan
AssociatedPressstoryon13October,forexample,KenDelaniandescribedtheCIAas
supplying"so-calledmoderaterebelstoopposeAssad"formorethantwoyears,alongwith
its"Araballies"andthatAmericanofficials"havewatchedinrecentdaysastheRussian
bombsandmissileshavetargetedthosegroups".
DelanianevenquotedJeffreyWhiteoftheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy
(WINEP),thethinktanksupportingIsraeliinterests,whocomplainedthattheUnitedStates
hadabandoneditsmoderateallies."We'vealignedourselvestotheseguys,wetrained
themandpaidthemandsentthemofftobattle,andwhenthegoinggetstough,we'renot
there,"saidWhite.
Butthisframingoftheissuefundamentallymis-representsthesituationinSyriaby
conjuringupanon-existentpowerfulUS-backed"moderate"forcewhiledivertingattention
fromtherealthreatposedbyal-Qaeda'sSyrianfranchise.TheRussiansarenothitting
someimaginarysetof"moderate"SyrianarmedgroupsopposingtheAssadregimethey
areoverwhelminglyfocusedontargetingthemilitarycommandinwhichal-NusraFrontis
thecentralstrategicforce.
ThemapspinpointingthelocationsoftheRussianstrikessince30Septemberpublishedin
variousnewspapersandonthewebsiteoftheInstituteforStudyofWar-theoriginal
sourcefortheothermaps-allshowveryclearlythattheyareoverwhelminglyconcentrated
inIdlibprovince,theadjoiningHamaprovince,andareasofLatakiaprovincenearIdlib.But
thatfactdoesnottakeonsignificanceunlessitisrecalledthattheal-NusraFront-al
Qaeda'sfranchiseinSyria-andthe"ArmyofConquest"linkedtoit,unexpectedlytook
controlofIdlibprovinceinamajormilitaryoffensiveinMarch.
ThatvictoryinIdlibwaswidelyreportedatthetimetobethebiggestturningpointinthe
Syrianwarinwellovertwoyearsandtorepresentbyfarthemostseriouschallengetothe
Assadregimesincethebeginningofthewar.Andalthoughanumberofsmallercommands
wereinvolvedintheIdliboffensive,al-NusraFront's3,000troopsrepresentedthemajority
oftheforcesinvolvedinthefight.Andaccordingtoawell-informedsource,al-Nusraandits
closejihadistallyAhraral-Shamaccountedfor90percentofthetroops.
Wenowknow,moreover,thattheIdlibcampaignwasthedirectresultofapolicydecision
bySaudiArabiaandQatar,withUSapproval,tosupportthecreationofthe"Armyof
Conquest"andprovideitwithnewmilitaryhardwarethatwasacrucialfactorinthat
campaign:theTOWanti-tankmissile.LizSlyoftheWashingtonPostrevealedinastoryon
11OctoberthatTOWmissileshadbeendeliveredtoSyrianarmedgroupsundera
programmecoordinatedbetweentheCIAandtheSaudis.SlyfurthernotesthattheCIA-
suppliedTOWmissilesweresoimportanttorebelswhomade"gainsinnorthwestSyria"
thattheyhavecalledthemissilethe"AssadTamer".
"Itisnoaccident,"Slyreported,"thatthefirsttargetsofRussianairstrikesinSyriawerethe
locationswhererebelsarmedwithTOWmissleshavemadethemostsubstantialgainand
wheretheymostdirectlythreatenAssad'sholdonpower".Thatisanobviousreferenceto
theforcesthattookoverIdlibprovinceinMarch.ButSlyneverreferstothe"Armyof
Conquest"victoryinIdliboracknowledgesthatal-NusraFrontwasthemainbenefactorof
theCIAprogramme.Herstoryquotesaproponentoftheprogramme,formerUS
ambassadorRobertFord,asassuringusthatthesystempreventedthemissilesfrom
"fallingintoextremisthands,"andthathewasawareofonlytwoTOWmissileshavingbeen
obtainedbyal-Nusra.
SlyreportedaverydifferentstoryinMarch,however,afterthedissolutionofHarakatHazm,
themainCIA-supported"moderaterebelgroup"remaininginthenorth,followingits
completedefeatbyal-NusraFront.Thevictoriousal-Nusraannouncedpublicly,according
toSly'sreport,thatithadseizedtheTOWanti-tankmissilestheCIAhadsuppliedto
HarakatHazmwhenitoccupiedthegroupsheadquartersnearAleppo.Moreover,the
SaudisreportedlyhadownershipofTOWmissiles,andtheyandtheQatarishadalready
beenfunnelingarmstoal-NusraFront,asVice-PresidentJoeBidenrevealedinOctober
2014.
Itisastonishingthatatthislatedate,anyoneinthemediacouldstillbeseriouslysuggesting
thattheCIAsomehowmanagedtoturnthe"moderate"Syrianrebelsintoapowerful
offensiveforcethreateningtheAssadregimeinthenorth.SincetheIdlibvictory,itis
generallyunderstoodthattheprimarythreattodrivetheAssadregimefrompowercomes
fromal-NusraFrontandtheforcesalliedwithit,andnotfromtheIslamicState-and
certainlynotthemythical"moderaterebels".
ItiseasytounderstandwhytheObamaadministrationisnotinterestedintalkingaboutthe
roleofal-NusrainthepresentSyrianpolitical-militarysituation.AccordingtoSly'ssource,
thecovertoperationtoprovidetheTOWmissilestotheArmyofConquestwasaimedat
putting"sufficientpressureonAssad'sforcestopersuadehimtocompromisebutnotso
muchthathisgovernmentwouldprecipitouslycollapseandleaveadangerouspower
vacuum".
TheObamaadministrationstrategyonSyriaassumedadegreeofcontrolthatisso
obviouslyunrealisticthatitwasinherentlyriskytothepointofrecklessness.Thatiswhyno
oneintheadministrationorthenewsmediaisdiscussingtherealitythattheRussian
offensiveistargetingthebiggestjihadistthreattotheAssadregime.
[returntoContents]
#15
ProjectSyndicate
October15,2015
TestingPutininSyria
ByRichardN.Haass
RichardN.Haass,PresidentoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,previouslyservedas
DirectorofPolicyPlanningfortheUSStateDepartment(2001-2003).
NEWYORK-TherehasbeennoshortageofscrutinyofwhatRussianPresidentVladimir
PutinisuptoinSyriaandwhy.Muchoftheanalysis,though,hasbeennarrowlyfocusedon
theshorttermandmaybetoonegativeinassessinghisactions'likelylong-term
consequences.
WhatweknowisthatPutinhasdecidedtocometotheaidofBasharal-Assad'sembattled
regime.Russianbombsandmissilesarenowrainingdownonanarrayofarmedgroups
thathavebeenfightingSyriangovernmentforces,whichhasgiventheregimethebreathing
spacethatRussia'sinterventionwasintendedtoprovide.
AsbadastheAssadgovernmentis,andasmuchasithastoanswerfor,thisoutcomeis
arguablypreferableintheshortruntotheregime'scollapse.ThepainfultruthinSyriatoday
isthatagovernmentimplosionwouldmostlikelyleadtogenocide,millionsmoredisplaced
people,andtheestablishmentoftheIslamicState'sso-calledcaliphateinDamascus.
Putin'smotivesareamatterofspeculation,butitwouldappearthathedidnotwanttosee
Russia'slong-termallyintheMiddleEastfall.Moreover,henevermissesanopportunityto
remindtheworldthatRussiaremainsamajorpower,ableandwillingtoactonbehalfofits
perceivedinterests.Itisalsopossiblethathesoughttodistractdomesticattentionfroma
shrinkingeconomyandtherisingcostofinterventioninUkraine.Putin'shighapproval
ratingssuggesthemaywellbesucceeding.
ManyfearthatRussia'slatestactivismwillnotonlyprolongSyria'sbrutalcivilwar,butalso
strengthentheIslamicState.Thiscouldwellturnouttobethecase,ashatredoftheAssad
regimeisamajorrecruitingtool.And,thusfaratleast,theIslamicStateseemstobealow
priorityfortheRussianmilitary,whichappearstobeattackingmainlyotheranti-Assad
groups.
Indeed,therehavebeenreportsoftheIslamicStatemovingintoareasthatothershave
abandonedfollowingRussianattacks.Russiaseemstobeplayingthesamecynicalgame
asAssad:framingthewarasabinarychoicebetweentheIslamicStateandaregimethat,
howeverflawed,stilldeservestheworld'ssupport.
SomealsofearthatthisdemonstrationofRussianassertivenesspresagesanewwaveof
suchinterventions,evenanewColdWar.Butthisisunlikely,iffornootherreasonthanthat
Russialackstheeconomicandmilitarymeanstosustainsucheffortsonmultiplefronts.It
isalsonotclearthattheRussianpeoplearepreparedtopayahighpriceforsuchaforeign
policy.
SoitallcomesdowntoPutin,whoenjoysadegreeofautonomyinKremlindecision-
makingnotseensincetheStalinera.Putiniswidelyknowntobeamartial-artsenthusiast,
andhisactioninSyriaisentirelyconsistentwithmanyofthediscipline'sprinciples,
includingtheimportanceofthedecisivethrustthatneutralizestheopponent'sstrengths
andexploitshisweaknesses.
Butforcehasitslimits.Russia'sinterventioninSyriacannotsucceedifsuccessisdefined
asenablingtheAssadgovernmenttoregaincontroloverthebulkofthecountry'sterritory.
Putin'spolicycan,atmost,establisharelativelysecureenclave.
Eventhismodestaimwillprovecostly,becausetheIslamicStateisalsobecoming
stronger.AnditcouldproveexpensivetoRussiaitself:itisonlyamatteroftimebefore
suicidebombings(suchastherecentattackinAnkara)occurinMoscow.
Therealquestion,then,iswhetherPutinseesbolsteringtheAssadgovernmentasanend
initselforasameanstoanend.Ifitisthelatter-ifPutinisthinkingintermsofchess,the
preferredgameofmanyRussians,andplanningseveralmovesahead-adiplomatic
process,inwhichAssadisremovedatsomepoint,isconceivable.Russiamightsupport
suchaprocessafterall,Putinisnotknownforhissentimentality.Indeed,hemight
embraceapoliticalprocessthatenabledhimtodemonstrateRussia'scentralrolein
shapingthefutureoftheMiddleEast.
Inthemeantime,theUnitedStatesandothersshouldpursueatwo-trackpolicy.Onetrack
wouldchannelstepstoimprovethebalanceofpoweronthegroundinSyria.Thismeans
doingmoretohelptheKurdsandselectSunnitribes,aswellascontinuingtoattackthe
IslamicStatefromtheair.
Relativelysafeenclavesshouldemergefromthiseffort.ASyriaofenclavesorcantons
maybethebestpossibleoutcomefornowandtheforeseeablefuture.NeithertheUSnor
anyoneelsehasavitalnationalinterestinrestoringaSyriangovernmentthatcontrolsallof
thecountry'sterritorywhatisessentialistorollbacktheIslamicStateandsimilargroups.
ThesecondtrackisapoliticalprocessinwhichtheUSandothergovernmentsremain
opentoRussian(andevenIranian)participation.ThegoalwouldbetoeaseAssadoutof
powerandestablishasuccessorgovernmentthat,ataminimum,enjoyedthesupportof
hisAlawitebaseand,ideally,someSunnis.
SuchaprocessmightwellconferprestigeonPutin.Thatwouldbeapriceworthpayingifit
contributedtoadynamicthatovertimereducedboththesufferingoftheSyrianpeopleand
thedangerposedbytheIslamicState.
[returntoContents]
#16
www.rt.com
October17,2015
WhyRussiahadtointerveneinSyria
ByDrAlexanderYakovenko,RussianAmbassadortotheUnitedKingdomofGreatBritain
andNorthernIreland,Deputyforeignminister(2005-2011).
CombatinginternationalterrorismhaslongbeenoneofthetopprioritiesofRussia'sforeign
policy.Wehavebeenconsistentlyadvocatinggenuinelyglobaleffortsincounteringthisevil.
Thefightagainstterrorismmustbeconductedonauniversallegalbasis,startingwiththe
UNCharter.ThatiswhyRussiahasbeenunabletojointheUS-led"globalcoalition"against
IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL).Thecoalitionwasestablishedincircumventionofthe
UNSecurityCouncil,anditsoperationsinSyriaviolatethesovereigntyofthatcountry.
ThefightagainstIScangainlegitimacyonlythroughaUNSecurityCouncilmandate.Sofar
theSecurityCouncilhasbeenblockedbyattemptsofagroupofstatestoimposean
ideologicalapproachtothisdirectcommonthreat.TheRussiandraftresolutionon
combatingterroristgroupsintheMiddleEast,whilerespectingtheindependenceof
countriesoftheregion,remainsonthetable.
Russiacallsforestablishingabroadcounter-terroristfront.Addressingrobustlythethreat
ofISandotherterroristgroupsintheregion,requiresajointandcoordinatedactionbyall
thosewhoarealreadyfightingISISontheground.ThoseincludetheSyrianandIraqi
armies,theKurdishandShiamilitias,andgroupsofpatrioticoppositioninSyria.Therecent
meetingsattheUNGeneralAssemblyhaveshownthatnobodyisenthusedattheprospect
ofdestructionoftheregionalarchitectureandreplacementofsecularstateswithan
extremist"caliphate".
Whilethosediplomaticeffortsaregainingmomentum,Russiaremainstheonly
internationalplayerwhosemilitaryactionsinSyriahasalegalbasisintheformofthe
requestofthegovernmentinDamascus.OurairstrikesinSyriaaresolelyfocusedonthe
eliminationoftheterroristthreatinthatcountry.Asregardsthechoiceoftargets,the
RussianDefenceMinistryhasshownanunprecedentedopenness,providing
comprehensiveanddetailedinformationoneverysingleoperationoftheRussianAirForce,
onadailybasis.YetanyinformationthatourpartnerscanshareregardingpotentialIS
targetstobehit,willbehighlyappreciated.Sofarourrespectiverequestshavenotbeen
respondedto.
Russia'sactionsarealreadybringingtangibleresultsontheground.Severalhundredair
strikeshavesignificantlydegradedthecommandandlogisticalinfrastructureofIS.Thisis
instarkcontrastwiththewidelyrecognizedandadmittedinefficiencyoftheUS-led
coalition.Aftermorethanayearofbombing,ISrankshaveswollen,theircontroloversome
regionshasstrengthened,andfinancialflowshavebeensteady.
TheaccusationthatISisaproductofRussia's"insistence"onkeepingPresidentAssadin
powerisabsolutelyuntenable.WhatistrueisthattheweakeningoftheSyrianauthorities
causedbytheoutsideinterferencehasledtovacuumandvastzonesofanarchy
throughoutthecountry,whichwerefilledbyterrorists.Theso-calledmoderateopposition
wasledtobelievethataWesternmilitaryinterventionwouldengineera"regimechange,"
thatsomebodywouldfightforthem.Consequently,ascivilwarraged,polarizationleftlittle
roomforthosemisledgroups.
Indeed,whilesolvingtheproblemofterrorism,wecertainlymustfacilitatethelaunchofa
UN-ledfocusedandcomprehensivepoliticalprocessbasedontheGenevacommuniquof
30June2012.Defeatingterroristswillhelpcreatetherightconditionsforalastingpolitical
settlement.Itwillbethebestwaytoputanendtothecivilconflictandachieve"peace
withoutvictory",somethingthattheEntentepowerscouldn'tstomachin1918.
[returntoContents]
#17
MoscowTimes
October17,2015
One-ThirdofRussiansThinkRussianMilitaryIsWorld'sBest
ByMatthewBodner
Almostone-thirdofRussiansthinktheirnation'smilitaryisthemostpowerfulintheworld,
accordingtoanewpollpublishedbytheRussianPublicOpinionResearchCenter
(VTsIOM)onThursday.
ThesurveycomestwoweeksafterRussiabeganairstrikesinSyriathathavedominated
televisionnewscoverage-mostofwhichhavepresentedthecampaignasaresounding
success.
ItshowedthatRussiansaremoreconfidentabouttheirnation'smilitarypowerthaninthe
finalyearsoftheSovietUnion,whenthecountrywasarecognizedglobalsuperpower.
Thirty-twopercentofrespondentstothepollpublishedFridaysaidRussia'smilitarywas
thestrongestintheworld,comparedtoonly5percentin1990.Another49percentsaidin
Friday'ssurveythattheRussianarmedforceswereamongtheplanet'smostpowerful,
comparedto21percentin1990.
In1990,almosthalfofRussianssaidtheSovietarmedforceseitherlaggedbehindtherest
oftheworldorwereflat-outweak.
Inpart,thechangeinattitudesreflectsamassivemodernizationdriveoverinrecentyears.
PresidentVladimirPutinhasoverseena20trillionruble($326billion)rearmamentprogram,
begunin2011,thatisaimedatreversingnearlytwodecadesofdeclineinthearmed
forces.
Theprogramisalreadyyieldingresults.Russia'sairforceandnavyinSyriahas
successfullyconductedmoderncombatoperations,sometimesusingadvancedprecision
weapons.Butanalystsagreethatinmostareasthecountry'smilitarytechnology
significantlylagstheU.S.,aswellasBritain,GermanyandFrance.
Thisyear,Russianmilitaryspendingisexpectedtohitapost-Soviethighof3.1trillion
rubles($50.5billion),oraround4percentofthecountry'sgrossdomesticproduct.Askedif
thiswastoomuchtospendonthemilitary,just35percentofrespondentstoFriday'spoll
saidyes,while52percentsaidthegovernmentisn'tspendingenough.
ThesurveywasconductedfromOct.10-11andpolled1,800peopleacrossRussia.The
marginoferrordidnotexceed3.5percent.
[returntoContents]
#18
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
October17,2015
LifestyleandIdentity
ByPaulRobinson
UniversityofOttawa
[Chartherehttp://irrussianality.wordpress.com/2015/10/17/lifestyle-and-identity/]
TheLevadaCentrehasjustissuedtheresultsofanewsurvey.Accordingtothispoll,a
majorityofRussians(53%)donotfeelthattheirvaluesystemandself-identityalignatall
withthoseoftheWest.Inaddition,45%regardthe'Westernlifestyle'(whichwasnot
defined)negatively,andonly30%regarditpositively.Theresultsareshownhere.
TOWHATDEGREEDOYOUCURRENTLYFEELTHATYOURVALUESYSTEMAND
SELF-IDENTITYALIGNWITHTHOSEOFWESTERNCULTURE?
Feb.93Oct.08Sept.14Sept.15
Ifeelthiswayatalltimes1322
Thisisfairlyimportanttome571210
Thisisnotveryimportanttome16323728
Idon'tfeelthisatall50544353
Itisdifficulttosay28567
OVERALL,HOWDOYOUFEELABOUTTHE"WESTERNLIFESTYLE":POSITIVELYOR
NEGATIVE
Oct.08Sept.14Sept.15
Positively463430
Negatively304245
Thesurveyalsofoundthat5%ofrespondentswoulddefinitelyliketomovetotheWestto
work,and18%wouldprobablydosoiftheycould,while30%probablywouldn'tand36%
definitelywouldn't(therestdidn'tknow).Thesefiguresarealmostunchangedfrom2008.
TheprimaryreasonsgivenforwantingtomovetotheWestwereeconomic(betterliving
conditionsbeingthemostcommonlycited)ratherthanpolitical.Youngerpeople(18-29),
thosewithuniversityeducation,andthosewhospokeforeignlanguagesandtravelled
regularlyabroadweregenerallymorepositivelyinclinedtotheWestandmorelikelytowant
tolivethere.
Lookingatallthis,Isuspectthattheanswerstothe'lifestyle'questionareratherless
significantthanthosetothemoregeneral'self-identity'question,inlargepartbecause,as
thechartsaboveshow,theyhavechangedmuchmoreovertimeandsomaybemore
reflectiveofcurrentpoliticaldifferencesratherthandeeply-heldbeliefs.Theymaytherefore
bemorelikelytochangeagaininthefuture.
Russianviewsaboutwhattheyimaginethe'Westernlifestyle'tobehaveineffectflipped
180degreesoverthepastsevenyears:46%positiveand30%negativein2008,but30%
positiveand45%negativein2015.AdislikeofWesternforeignpolicymightwellbeafactor
inthischange,asmightafeelingthattheWesthasbecomedecadentandexcessively
liberal,whileRussiahasretainedamoreconservativeoutlook.Nevertheless,Iamnot
convincedthatthisapparentdivergenceofvaluesisalastingphenomenon.Thecurrent
levelofinternationaltensiondoesnothavetobepermanent,andthevaluesdifferencesare,
Ithink,overblown.MostRussiansseemveryhappytoindulgeinWestern-style
consumerismifgiventhechance,andRussianpopularcultureisnotobviouslyanyless
'decadent'thanthatoftheWest.IstronglysuspectthatifRussian-Westernrelationswere
toimprove,answerstothelifestylequestionwouldswitchrapidlybacktowheretheywere
sevenyearsago.
Thesamecan'tbesaidofRussians'failuretoself-identifyasWestern.The53%whose
self-identityis'notatall'Westernisanalmostidenticalfiguretothe50%whofeltthatway
in1993andthe54%whodidsoin2008.Itseemsthatthereisalong-standingsense
amongamajorityofRussiansthattheyaredistinctfromtheWest.Thissenseisnotjusta
productofcurrentinternationaltensions,anditislikelytopersist.
Oneoftheparadoxesofglobalizationisthatinsomecasesitmayactuallyaccentuate
perceptionsofculturaldifference.Lifestyleandidentityhavetobeseparated.Whatthe
LevadapollsuggeststomeisthatthefactthatRussiansareadoptingcertainWestern
waysoflivingdoesn'tnecessarilymeanthattheywillgrowtofeelmoreWestern.
[returntoContents]
#19
Russia&IndiaReport
http://in.rbth.com
October17,2015
MovingawayfromaWest-centricoutlook
AjayKamalakaran,RIR
BeforewritingthiscolumnIwouldliketomakeitabsolutelyclearthatIamnotanti-West,
andtherearealotofthingsaboutwesterncountriesthatIabsolutelyadmire.However,I
findthisneedamongmanyinfluentialpeopleinRussiatohavewesternapprovalabsolutely
cringe-worthy.
Overthelasttwoandahalfdecades,theAmericanfilmandtelevisionindustryhas
managedtocompletelycapturetheRussianmarket.It'sincrediblydifficulttofindaRussian
filmbeingscreenedinMoscow.ThecinemahallsmostlyshowdubbedHollywoodpictures.
ThisdominationoftheRussianculturalspacebytheU.S.anditsallieshasledtomany
Russiansseeingtheirowncountrythroughawesternprism.
WhiletheremaybesomejustificationforcallingStPetersburgthe'VeniceoftheNorth,why
isVladivostokcalledthe'RussianSanFrancisco?'Thelistgoesonwithsomesmaller
regionsintheCaucasusbeinglabeledthe'SwitzerlandofRussia.'AsniceasVenice,San
FranciscoandSwitzerlandare,theyhavetheirplusandminuspointsjustlikeanyother
placeonearth.TheproblemwithmanyRussiansisthattheyblindlyacceptthehypeover
placesintheWestandtryoverlyhardtoequatetheirowncitieswithbenchmarkssetin
EuropeandtheU.S.
ThislackofselfconfidenceandneedforapprovalfromtheWestwerethedirectresultof
perestroikaandthelosingofsuperpowerstatus.Ithashoweverbeenalmostaquarterofa
centurysincetheUSSRcollapsed.Overthistime,Russiahasmanagedtoreviveand
reinventitself.Thecountryisblessedwithsomuchnaturalbeautyandsomeofthemost
charmingcitiesintheworld.It'stimetodevelopthickskinandnolongercarewhatthe
Westthinks.
ItaketheexampleofacountrylikeIndiathatisconstantlyundersiegefromthewestern
mediaanditslocal'sepoys.'Noarticlepublishedbyawesternnewspaperorwireservice
onIndia'sachievementswouldbecompletewithoutamentionofthecountry'spoverty.
Whetherit'sthespaceprogramorsomemassiveinfrastructureproject,somewhereorthe
other,therewillbealineaboutthepercentageofpeoplelivingbelowthepovertylineinthe
country.Thesamegoeswithwesternnewsagenciesandtheirphotodesks.Apoorperson,
acoworsomesignofpovertyisanessentialpartofaphotographofIndia.
AsIndiacontinuestogroweconomicallyandtakestherightstepstoeradicatepoverty,an
increasingnumberofIndiansjustdonotcareaboutbiasedmediacoveragefromtheWest.
Theprevailingwisdominthecountryisonthelinesof'letthemwallowintheirown
ignorance.'WhiletherearethoseincitieslikeUdaipur,whocalltheircity,'theVeniceofthe
East,'thedecision-makersinthestateofRajasthanaremorekeentopromotetheir
beautifulculturethanfallingpreytosuchsillycomparisons.
Russiansneedtodevelopthickskinandhaveasimilarattitudetowardswesternnegativity.
Overthelastdecade,therehasbeenaclearlyvisibleimprovementininfrastructureand
standardsoflivingacrossRussia.Butwe'llneverreadaboutthisinanywestern
publication.IfsomethingunusuallynegativehappensinaSiberianvillage,ithasagreat
chanceofmakingheadlinesaroundtheworld.
It'samazinghowEuropeanshavethereasoningandlogictoseparateAmericanforeign
policyfromculture,butstilljeeratRussianperformersattheEurovisioncontest.Formany
intheWest,theaggressiveAmericanmilitaryadventuresdonotequalAmericanpeople,
butdifferentyardsticksgeteasilyappliedtoRussia.Ofcourse,thisistheresultofyearsof
veryeffectivebrainwashing.
RussiahastremendousgoodwillinAsia,theBalkans,AfricaandLatinAmerica.It'stimeto
capitalizeandbuildonthis.ManypeopleintheseregionswanttoseeRussianshavethe
samekindofconfidenceintheircountryastheydidintheheydayoftheUSSR.
Thefirststepontheroadtobuildingthisconfidenceisde-hyphenationwiththeWest.Let
usstopthecomparisonswithVeniceandSanFrancisco(andthefreepublicitythesecites
keepgetting)whenwetalkaboutStPetersburgandVladivostok.Russianeedstocreateit
owntourismbranddistinctandfreeoftheWest.Ofcourse,itwouldbenicetohavemore
westerntouristsinRussia,buttheworldiscertainlynotjusttheWest.Thisisprecisely
whatsomedecision-makersinRussianeedtounderstand.
Tailpiece:
Givenalltherestorationandredevelopmentgoingonacrossthecountry,Russiancitieswill
beattheirbestwhenthecountryhoststhe2018FIFAWorldCup.Thesportingcarnivalis
Russia'sbestopportunitytoshowcaseitselftotheworld.Noamountofnegativemedia
coveragewillbeabletooffsetwhatfootballfansfromaroundtheworldwillseewiththeir
owneyes.
[returntoContents]
#20
FinancialTimes
October17,2015
God'sTV,Russianstyle
ByCourtneyWeaver
CourtneyWeaveristheFT'sdeputyMoscowbureauchief
OnasunnyafternooninMoscow,theRussiantycoonKonstantinMalofeevisholdingcourt
inthestudiosofhisnewlylaunchedtelevisionchannelTsargradTV,dressedinadesigner
suit,abluesilkhandkerchiefpeekingfromhisbreastpocket.Abovehimisamakeshift
cathedralcupolaweighinginathalfatonne.Behindhimare24ft-highwindowsthrough
whichtheKremlin'sredtowersarevisible,theirglasscommuniststarsglistening.
Malofeev,whohasthecheeksandfigureofamanwholikesagoodmeal,isinabuoyant
mood.Inasignofhisgrowingclout,hehasjusthadlunchwithtwooftherichestoligarchs
ontheForbeslist.YelenaMizulina,aleadingconservativesenator,whohascometo
Tsargrad'soffices,ispatientlywaitingforthebusinessmantofitinatte--ttebeforehe
departsonhissummerholiday.
Overthepastfewyears,Malofeev,41,hasmorphedintooneofRussia'smostinfluential
businessmenandlobbyists,inpartthankstohisdevoutRussianOrthodoxfaithand
conservativevalues,nowbackinvogueduringVladimirPutin'sthirdterm.Asthefounderof
privateequityfirmMarshallCapitalPartners,Malofeevaccumulatedsubstantialpersonal
wealth,largelythroughaninvestmentintheRussiantelecomsgiantRostelecom.(His
friendIgorShchegolev,afellowRussianOrthodoxandnowPutinadviser,wastelecoms
ministeratthetime.)Nowheispayingitbackasaself-styledChristianphilanthropistand
oneofPutin'sloudestideologicalsupporters.
ItisaspartofthisnextactthatMalofeevhaslaunchedTsargradTV,hisownRussian
OrthodoxTVchannel,whichaimstoputaconservativeyetmodernspinonglobalnews.In
June,TsargradbeganbroadcastingdailyonSpas,areligiouschannelrunbytheRussian
OrthodoxChurch,inadditiontoanonlineplatform.AccordingtoMalofeev,Tsargrad's
closestinternationalequivalentisFoxNewsintheUS,makinghimsomethingofaRussian
RogerAiles.
"WhenFoxNewsenteredtheAmericanmarketinaround1996to1997,theywerevery
differentfromCNNandABC.Foxtalkedaboutthingsthatpeoplewoulddiscussamong
themselvesintheirkitchensbutwhichotherchannelsweretooscaredtosay,ordidn't
wanttosayonair,"Malofeevsaysexcitedly."InmanywaysTsargradissimilartowhatFox
Newshasdone.Westartedfromtheideathattherearemanypeoplewhoadhereto
traditionalvaluesandtheyabsolutelyneedavoice."
ThenodtoFoxisnotaccidental.TogetTsargradTVupandrunning,MalofeevhiredJack
Hanick,oneofFoxNews'sfoundingproducers,whomhemetwhentheywereboth
speakersataMoscowconferenceonmoralityinthemedia."Theyputusallintheroom
andIthought,anotherspeaker,great,"Hanicksays."Heseemedlikeaveryhumbleguy.I
hadnoideahehadalotofpowerorpoliticalpull.I'mstillnotsurewhathehas."
BornintheMoscowsuburbsin1974,Malofeevstudiedtobealawyerbutswitchedto
investmentbankingascapitalismtookholdtowardstheendofthe1990s.By2005,atthe
ageof31,hehadfoundedhisprivateequityfirmMarshallCapitalPartners.Itwasat
universitythathesayshefoundGod,andthroughouthisbusinesscareerhehascultivated
animageofamanoftheRussianOrthodoxChurch.
ConnectingMalofeevtoleadingRussianandwesternconservativesislikeplayingafar-
right,OrthodoxversionofSixDegreesofKevinBacon.InKremlincircles,thetycoon
mingleswithShchegolevandVladimirYakunin,theformerchiefofRussia'sstaterailways
company.Inthewest,hehasbeenlinkedwithFrance'sMarineLePenandisacquainted
withUSpresidentialcandidateRandPaul.PanosKammenos,theformerGreekdefence
minister,hasbeenaguestathiscountryestate.
MalofeevgainedfurthernotorietyduringtheUkraineconflictin2014,afterheemergedas
oneofthekeyfigureslinkingpro-RussiaforcesineastUkrainewiththeMoscowpolitical
establishment.Oneofhisformeremployees,AlexanderBorodai,wasatonepointtheself-
declaredDonetskPeople'sRepublicprimeministeranother,IgorGirkin,brieflyservedas
thepro-Russianrebels'chiefmilitarycommander.TheconnectionslandedMalofeevunder
EUandUSsanctionslastyear.Ukraine'sinteriorministryhasaccusedhimoffinancing
"illegalarmedgroups"andbrandedhima"sponsorofterrorists".
Malofeevhasdeniedtheallegations,whichhaveplayedwellforhimdomestically.
AccordingtoSergeiMarkov,awell-connectedpro-Kremlinanalyst,theclaimshaveactually
boostedhisstandingasasuccessfullobbyistandideologue:"Malofeevendedupinthe
middleofallthesenewseventsaccidentallyenough,Ithink.Butwhenhedid,ofcoursehe
washappyaboutit.Itmeantthatallofhismoneyhadn'tbeenspentinvain."
ThenewTVchannelisthelatestexampleofMalofeevdoingwhathedoesbest:leveraging
hisOrthodoxcredentialsandwealthtocatapulthimselfintothezeitgeistofRussianpolitics.
WhilesomeoligarchswhotriedtogetinvolvedinTVintheearly2000swereexiledorjailed
underPutin'snewregime,Malofeevissofarenjoyingcarteblanchewithhischannel,which
heboastsisevenmorepatrioticthantheKremlin'sownstate-runTVstations."We've
alwaysstucktoourOrthodox,patriotic,imperialistpositions.Themainstreamhasn't."
Tsargard'sprimarygoal,Malofeevinsists,isaproselytisingone."Therearealotofpeople
whowearcrosses,identifyasChristiansbutatthesametimedon'tgotochurch,orgoto
churchjustonceayearforEaster.Ourjobistoreachouttothesepeopleandpavethe
waytothecathedralforthem."
Atthesametime,thechannelhasadoptedaclearanti-westerngeopoliticalstanceonthe
newsthatcanmakeRussianstateTVlooktamebycomparison.Inasegmentabout
migrantsthissummer,oneofthechannel'scorrespondentssuggestedthatEurope's
refugeecrisishadbeenthedeliberateworkofeitherGeorgeSorosortheRothschildfamily.
"TheRothschildsarecalledthemastersofmoney,"theanchortoldtheaudiencecalmly.
"Theirresourceismoneyandtheirgoalisworlddomination."
Inanothersegment,thetopicofRussianinterestrateswasusedasalaunchpadfor
discussingthequestionablemoralsofUSmonetarypolicy.AnewsitemaboutPlanned
Parenthoodturnedintoacautionaryexposon"AmericanSatanists"who"openly
supportedthekillingofchildren".
ThemastermindbehindTsargrad'seditorialideologyisAlexanderDugin,arightwing
ideologuewho,since1997,hascalledforRussiatorebuildaEurasianempire,
"constructedonthefundamentalprincipleofthecommonenemy"-primarilytheUSandits
exportedidealofliberalism.ADostoyevskianfigurewithpiercingeyesandalong,greying
beard,DuginsaysthatmanyRussiansareturningtoconservatismafterbeingdisillusioned
withtheliberalismpromotedbyBorisYeltsininthe1990s.
"Liberalismhasbeenstronglydiscreditedbythewest'spolitics,"Duginsays.Tsargrad,he
claims,reflectstheopinionofthissilentmajority."Ourgoalistotakepatrioticdiscourseout
oftheghettoitwaskeptinduringSovietandliberaltimes...Whenpeoplearen'toftengivena
chancetospeak,theyforgethowtotalksotheygruntormakefaces.It'sveryimportantto
givethesepeoplealanguage."
Oneofthemaindemographicstoidentifywiththisswingtowardsconservatismisyounger
Russians,Duginsays.OneofthemisAndreiAfanasiev,a26-year-oldTsargradnews
anchor.ThoughheusedtoworkfortheEnglish-languagechannelRussiaToday,speaks
fluentEnglishandhastravelledwidely,Afanasievsayshisexperienceofstudyingabroadin
Spainlefthimdisillusionedaboutthewest."ThelifestyleandvaluesoftheyoungpeopleI
sawthereweren'tclosetomine.Itwassickhedonism:consumerism,entertainment.
Everythingwasveryvulgar."
WithTsargrad,Afanasievsayshehasfoundawholenewgroupofpeoplewhosharehis
Orthodoxbeliefsandconservativevalues."Theconceptofourchannelisthatwe'realllike-
minded.It'sgreat!"hesays."Youcanenvyme:forthepastyearasajournalist,Ihavenot
oncegoneagainstmyheart."
IfirstgotaglimpseofhowTsargrad'sinternalideologywasshapingupduringavisittothe
studio,onMoscow'smaindrag,inlateApril,beforeitsofficiallaunch.Hanick,theformer
FoxNewsexecutive,wasintownandhelpingtheotherproducersprepareforaninterview
thateveningwithAlexeiVaits,aleaderoftheNightWolves,apro-Putinmotorbikegangthat
hasbecomeoneofthesymbolsofthenewbrandofRussiannationalism.Theatmosphere
waspandemonium.
WhileHanickhasthersumofanexperiencedTVproducer,helackstheRussian
languageskills."Zhen,couldyoulightthisup?"hesaidtoanon-English-speaking
employee,gesturingupattheimageofChristhangingabovetheset."Howdoyousay,
'Cupola!Lights!Pozhaluysta?'"heaskedsomewhatrhetorically,dousingtheRussianword
for"please"withaheavyNewYorkaccent.
ThecupolainquestionistheworkofIvanGlazunov,aprominentRussianOrthodoxartist.
Astheproducerspreparedfortheinterview,Glazunovoversawoneofhisassistants
paintingaplywoodcolumntomakeitlookmorelikeanElginmarble.Whenitwastimeto
shoot,thetwopainterswerebrusquelyshooedfromtheset."Fortheartist,thisisthe
compromise,"Glazunovsaiddrily.
Thestudio'sconcept,asHanick,putsit,is"Byzantiummeetsthe21stcentury".The
space'sloftywindowsandnaturallightarenottheeasiestfitforbroadcasttelevision.
"AnyonewhowantedtodoaTVstationwouldsaythatthisisanightmare,"Hanicksays.
Buthenotesthatthenaturallightaddsacertaintouchofholinesstotheproduction.
HanickwasraisedCatholicbutsaysheandhiswifenowhopetobaptisetheirsoninthe
RussianOrthodoxChurch,soinspiredhavetheybeenwiththeirexperienceatthechannel.
OnoneofhisfirsttripstoRussia,Hanicksaidthathehadbeenshownaroundseveral
churchesinMoscow."ItwasFebruaryandmiserablysnowingandeverychurchwas
packed,"hesays."Peoplewerestandingoutsideinthesnowandlisteningonspeakers.
AndIwasthinking,you'dneverseethisinAmerica."
RussiahasacomplexrelationshipwiththeOrthodoxChurch.DuringtheSovietperiod,
religionwasofficiallybanned,andallchurchpropertywasseized.Between1917andthe
SovietUnion'sfall,morethan300,000churchworkerswerekilledorimprisonedbythe
Sovietsecretpoliceandsecurityservices.ButsincethefalloftheSovietUnion,Orthodoxy
hasbecomenotjustpopularbutfashionable,saysGeraldineFagan,authorofBelievingin
Russia-ReligiousPolicyafterCommunism.Well-heeledMuscoviteshavestartedwearing
crossesroundtheirnecks.MostrestaurantsinRussia'sbigcitiesnowofferLentenmenus.
UnderPutin'sthirdterm,Orthodoxyhastakenontheadditionalroleofapoliticaltool,used
tounitethemostlyChristianpopulationagainstwesternliberalism,seenasthecauseof
the2012anti-governmentprotests.Inthewakeofthoseprotests,theKremlinpushedfora
2013lawbanningso-calledgaypropagandatominors,andjailedthepunkgroupPussy
Riotfora2012protestconcertinaMoscowchurch,whilepushingamorenationalist
agendaonstateTV.
ThemainconcernnowfortheRussianOrthodoxChurchisthat"religious,ideological,
nationalistdialogue"willreplacefaith,saysGeorgyMitrofanov,aStPetersburgpriest.
"ModernOrthodoxChristiansinRussiaarenotsomuchreligiouslymotivatedbychurchlife
astheyaresearchingforanewauthoritarianideologicalsystem,"hewarns.
AtTsargrad,therearesignsthatthechannel'sideologyisattractingabroadergroupof
supporters.YuriGrymov,aleadingRussianproducer,recentlysignedonasdirectorafter
workingatDozhd,Russia'ssoleoppositionTVchannel-andotherDozhdemployeesare
followingsuit."IwasaproduceronDozhdforayear-and-a-half,butwepartedways
becausewerealisedweweredifferent,"Grymovsaid."I'mfriendswithpeopleofdifferent
confessions,Iworkwithpeopleofdifferentconfessions.It'sjustthatrecentexperiencehas
shownmethatpeoplewhogotochurcharedifferentthanatheistsinawaythat'sforthe
better."
ForMalofeev,thisisallgoodnewsandlargelydowntooneman."UnderPutin25,000
churcheshavebeenbuilt.Canyoubelieveit?Twenty-fivethousandchurches!"Malofeev
exclaims."Inaddition,800monasterieswererestored,andthisEaster1.5millionpeoplein
Moscowwenttochurch-anewrecord.Thisisallhappeningbeforeoureyes.Putinhas
becomeahistoricalleader,thebestthatRussiahashadin100years,sincebeforethe
revolution.Wegotverylucky."
[returntoContents]
#21
PublicBooks
www.publicbooks.org
October15,2015
Russia,Today:Part1
EliotBorensteinandCarineClment
October15,2015-AmidtheannexationofCrimea,thefrozenconflictineasternUkraine,
andanemergingproxywarinSyria,manycommentatorshaveproclaimedthebeginningof
anewColdWarbetweenRussiaandtheWest.Butasideologuesoneithersidespread
theirmessagesthroughinternationalorganizationsandnewsmedia,ithasbecome
increasinglydifficulttounderstandthesecrisesandtheirorigins.TotheWest,theactions
ofVladimirPutin'scorruptregimeareerodingthefoundationsofthepostwarnation-state
andplungingtheworldfurtherintochaos.FromtheKremlin'svantage,ahypocritical,
decadentWesthasprecipitatedacoupinUkraineandexpandedNATOtoRussia's
doorstep.Freightedwithirreconcilablenarratives,disinformation,andmisleadinghistorical
analogies,scholarsandobserversalikeseemtolackavocabularytoadequatelydescribe
theWest'songoingdramawithRussia.
OursecondcollaborationbetweenPublicBooksandtheFrenchonlinejournalLaViedes
Ides/Books&Ideasseeksapathbeyondthisintellectualimpasse.Overthespaceofsix
articles,publishedinthreeparts,ourcontributorsexaminetheforcesthathaveledtoa
renewederaofglobaluncertainty.Inthisfirstpairofessays,AmericanslavicistEliot
BorensteinexaminesRussia'slove-haterelationshipwiththeWest,whileFrench
sociologistCarineClmentanalyzesthesystemthatsustainsPutin'sdomesticpower.In
ourNovember1issuewewillpublishasecondpairofarticlesbyPrincetonhistorian
EkaterinaPravilovaandFrenchphilosopherMichelEltchaninoff,followedonNovember15
bytwofinalpiecesbyAmericanlegalscholarMonicaEppingerandFrenchsociologist
CcileLefvre.
---
CAUGHTINABADROMANCE:WHATAMERICAMEANSTORUSSIA
EliotBorenstein
EliotBorensteinisProfessorofRussianandSlavicStudiesatNewYorkUniversity.Heis
theauthorofMenwithoutWomen:MasculinityandRevolutioninRussianFiction,1917-
1919(2000)andOverkill:SexandViolenceinContemporaryRussianPopularCulture
(2008).A2009Guggenheimrecipient,Borensteinisworkingonamonographentitled"Plots
AgainstRussia:ConspiracyandFantasyafterSocialism."Heisalsotheeditorand
developerof"AlltheRussias,"theblogsiteandwebportalfortheNYUJordanCenterfor
theAdvancedStudyofRussia.
Russiafarespoorlyintheheadlines,andnotjustbecausethenewsissooftenbad.The
Anglo-Americanworld'slimitedknowledgeaboutitscultureandhistorysaddlesRussiawith
painfullyobviousclichs,ofteninvolvingthewords"red"and"revolution."Butthebanality
prizemustgototheinevitable"FromRussia,withLove."1Ithasbeenalmost60years
sinceIanFlemingpublishedaJamesBondnovelbythatname(andmorethan50sincethe
moviewasreleased),yetthephrase,likeBondhimself,doesnotseemtobeheadedto
retirementanytimesoon.
Butitistimeforourcomplacencyaboutthenatureofthetiesbetweenthetwocountriesto
beshaken,ifnotstirred.Fleming'sstoryfeaturestwoRussianwomentryingtomake
contactwithBritain'stopsuperspyonewantstokillhim,theothertakeshimtobed.With
justafewsmalladjustments(suchasswappingoutBondforanAmerican),thetwo
extremescouldbeappliedtomanyRussians'feelingsabouttheUnitedStates,feelings
that,asisoftenthecaseincross-culturalrelationships,aremutuallymisunderstood.
PunditsintheWestanxiouslywringtheirhandsovertheriseofRussian"anti-
Americanism,"anotoriouslyvaguetermwhosemaineffectistomakeAmericansfeel
besieged.Russiahasbecomethelatestfocusforthenaivequestionwenevergettiredof
asking:"Whydotheyhateussomuch?"Inthiscase,though,thehostilitytowardsAmerica
comesfromaplaceoflove.Angry,spurnedlove.
Enemies:ALoveStory
Russia'sloveofAmericaisanoldstory,onethatisworthrecallingpreciselywhenrelations
havegonesosour.LikeHumbert'sLolita,Americahadaprecursor(shedid,indeedshe
did):anolder,andstillsimmering,affairwithWesternEuropeingeneralandFrancein
particular.Butinthetwentiethcentury,Russiawaspreoccupiedwithmodernityandwiththe
future.AninfatuationwithAmericawasinevitable.
TothosewholivedthroughWorldWarII,AmericawastheLend-Leaseprogram.Tothe
generationwhocameofageinthe1960s,Americawastheenchantedkingdomthatgave
birthtojazz(broadcastonVoiceofAmericaforyears),ErnestHemingway,KurtVonnegut,
andbluejeans.Formostpeople,thislovewaspoliticalonlytotheextentthatturningone's
attentiontothe"enemy"wasapoliticizedgesture.TheappealwasnottheUnitedStates'
economicsystemordemocraticinstitutionsUSboosterismtothecontrary,Russianswere
notseeking"freedom"orthe"AmericanDream."Theyweresimplycharmed.
WelikedtothinkofSovietcitizensasvirtuallyisolatedfromtherestoftheworld,imagining
theirnaivedelightwhenfinallyconfrontedwiththewondersofWesterncultureand
technology.Butthenaivetwasreallyours.Reportsofshortagesandlonglinesledmany
toassumethattheUSSR,ratherthanbeinganindustrialized,moderncountrywitha
capacioussocialwelfaresystem,wasmorelikeagodforsakenislandwhoseinhabitants
couldn'twaittostartacargocult.ThenovelistVasilyAksyonov,strippedofhiscitizenshipin
1980,recallshowexcitedhisnewAmericanlandlordwaswhenheheardthatthe
AksyonovswerefromtheUSSR:hetookthemtoamagicroomthatwentupanddown
fromfloortofloor,dependingonthebuttonspressed.Aksyonovwastoopolite(andtoo
amused)totellhimthattheSovietshadlongsincemasteredthesecretsoftheelevator.
IfweacceptthatUS-Russianrelationsareatleastinpartaboutlove,thenAmericaisthe
ultimatebadboyfriend.
Still,therewasonegapintheirknowledgeaboutAmericathatwouldprovedisastrous:the
SovietsdidnotknowthattheirloveforAmericawasunrequited.And,really,howcould
they?Theconflictbetweenthetwosuperpowersdefinedtheentireera,andthelimited
contactsbetweenthemnearlyalwaysinvolvedAmericanscholars,diplomats,oractivists
whowereemotionallyorintellectuallyinvestedinRussia(andwouldn'thavebothered,
otherwise).ThisisnottosaythatRussiaandtheSovietUnionplayednoroleinthe
Americanpsyche.Theideologicaldivideallowedforareductive,functionalistapproachto
Russiaanditsculture,turningtheSovietUnionintosomethingofatotalitarianDisneyland
fortheAmericanmedia/entertainmentcomplex.Sovietsmadegreatmovievillains.What
elsecouldRussiahavetooffer?
Russiahasalonghistoryofpreoccupationwithitsimageontheworldstage.America,on
theotherhand,isnotoriouslyself-absorbed,indeed,self-satisfied.Wedo,ofcourse,get
involvedinforeignwars,but,really,ourrelationshipwiththerestoftheworldisoneof
benignneglectpunctuatedbytheoccasionalrecollectionsthatwe'renotalonethen,likea
guiltybutdutifulchildpickingupaHallmarkcardonMother'sDay,weremembertosenda
drone.
AmericawasbrieflyinfatuatedwithRussiaandtheSovietUnionduringGorbachev's
perestroika,aperiodthatprovedasanomalousfortheUSasitdidforitshomecountry.
Thedamage,however,wasdone:foratleastfiveyears(lateperestroikathrough1993),
citizensofthe(former)SovietUnioncouldjustifiablyconvincethemselvesthatwewere
actuallyconcernedabouttheirwell-being.WesentthemMcDonaldsandPizzaHut,and
eventuallyhumanitarianaidintheformofchicken("Bushlegs,"asRussianscalledthem)
andleftoverDesertStormMREs.Moreominously,wesentour"experts"toreform/ruinthe
nationaleconomy,andactedasindefatigablecheerleadersforthecountry'snew
democraticinstitutions(evenwhenRussia'spresidentdisbandedandthenshelledthe
country'sparliamentin1993).
And,bytheendofthe1990s,wemoreorlessforgotaboutthem.IfweacceptthatUS-
Russianrelationsareatleastinpartaboutlove,thenAmericaistheultimatebadboyfriend.
LoveWillTearUsApart
Inretrospect,theturnagainstAmericashouldhavebeenpredictable.Whenweputour
stampofapprovalonaneoliberal,"democratic"regimethatsawincomesplummetand
crimerunrampant,webecamecomplicitinitsfailures.Eventhiscouldhavebeen
remedied,butweaddedinsulttoinjurythroughneglectandlackofrespect.Ratherthan
seeingRussiaasapartner(orevenanantagonist-atleastenemiesgetattention),we
movedintheinternationalarenaasifRussiadidn'tmatteratall.
The1999NATObombingofYugoslaviawasawell-knownturningpointforRussia,when
themediaandpopularopinionportrayedtheSerbianpeopleasvictimsofanoverreaching
predator.Russia'sthen-PrimeMinister,YevgenyPrimakov,wasflyingovertheAtlanticon
anofficialvisittotheUSwhenheheardthatNATOhadcommenceditsbombinghebriefly
achievedcultherostatusbyorderingtheplanetoturnaround.Themovewasquickly
dubbed"Primakov'sLoop,"anironicallyappropriatetermforadecisionmadebecauseof
theinformationloopfromwhichPrimakovhadbeenexcluded.
Russia'sangeroverthebombingswascast,bothinternallyandforexport,intermsofthe
longstandingbrotherlytiesbetweentwoOrthodoxSlavicnations.Butthesetieswereonly
(re)discoveredinthe1990sinotherwords,theRussianmediaandpoliticalelites
emotionallyreinvestedinSerbiapreciselywhenYugoslaviawascollapsing.Theimplicit
homologybetweenSerbiaandYugoslaviaononesideandRussiaandtheSovietUnionon
theothermeantthatSerbia'sstruggleswereseenasaproxyforRussia's.Whatthe
AmericanmediacastasahumanrightsandEuropeansecurityproblemwas,inRussia,
presentedasatestcaseforAmerica'splansforRussiaitself.
Itwasafterthebombingsthatanti-Westernconspiracytheoriesstartedtomovefromthe
margintothecenter.FirstcametherevivalofRussianmigrGrigoryKlimov'swarnings
aboutthesinister"HarvardProject,"anAmerican/Jewishplottousemindcontroland
geneticmanipulationtotransformRussiaintoanationofdebased,predatoryhomosexuals.
LongafixtureoftheRussianfarright,itspawnedS.Norka'sdystopianInquisitortrilogy
aboutRussia'snearfuture,whentheHarvardProjectischallengedbyanewOrthodox
inquisitionandastrongpresidentwhobringsordertotheland.
TheHarvardProjectwouldsoonbeeclipsedbythe"DullesPlan,"repackagedfroma
villain'smonologueina1970sSovietspythrillerandattributedtoEisenhower'sCIAchief.
Whatinthe1970swas,atbest,afuturethreattobeavoidednowlookedlikeaplanthathad
alreadycometofruition:Americanpopcultureturningpeopleintoidiots,"switch[ing]out
theirvaluesforfalseonesandmak[ing]thembelieveinthesefalsevalues."Whoknewthat
dubbed-overrerunsofSantaBarbaracouldbesodestructive?
Oneneednotbeadie-hardFreudiantoseethatlovingandhatingAmericaaretwo
versionsofthesamelibidinalinvestmenteitherway,Americaretainsanoutsized
importancethathauntsthecurrentproclamationsofRussianspiritualsuperiority.Andina
timeofincreasedstatecontrolovermediaoutlets,presentingahostileUnitedStateshits
thesweetspotbetweenpreexistingpublicsentimentandstatepropaganda.Asinmostof
thecasesinwhichRussia'swell-curatedstatemediacarefullydriveaparticularmessage
home,itisnotsimplyamatterofanauthoritariangovernmenttellingitscompliant
populationwhattobelieverather,itisasophisticatedmediaoperationthatconfirmsand
extendsbeliefsthatalreadyholdafairamountofcurrency.
Since2006,theRussianmediaandblogospherehavebeenclaimingthatformerSecretary
ofStateMadeleineAlbrightlamentedtheinjusticeofRussia'sshareoftheworld'soiland
mineralwealth(Siberiashouldthereforebeunderinternationalcontrol).Albrightherselfhas
deniedsayinganysuchthing,whilePutinhasmanagedtohaveitbothways("I'mnot
familiarwiththisquotebyMadameAlbright,butIknowthatsuchthoughtswanderthrough
themindsofcertainpoliticians").2Thisfakequoteispartofaperfectfeedbackloop,
reinforcingboththerapaciousnessofAmericans(andparticularlytheClinton
administration,responsibleforthebombingsinSerbia)andthegreatnessofRussiaitself.It
isthefamiliarpoliticsofressentiment,harnessingpublicprideandhumiliationintheservice
oftheelite'sagenda.
GivenhowmuchofcontemporaryRussianparanoidpoliticaldiscourserevolvesaround
homosexuality,perhapspsychoanalysisdoesprovidesomeusefulinsights.Klimov's
fantasyofagayJewishAmericancabaltryingtolureRussiaontothepathtodebauchery
looksalmostprescient:thecurrentanti-gayhysteriapositshomosexualityasnotsimplyan
internaldangertothebodypolitic,butasadiseasedeliberatelyexportedbyAmericaand
Europe(orasRussianhomophobesprefer,"Gayrope").Arecentepisodeofthereliably
rabiddocumentary/talkshowhybrid"SpecialCorrespondent"(whichairsonprimetimeon
Russianstatetelevision)followedashortfilmcalled"Sodom"abouttheexcessesof
toleranceintheUSandEuropewithadiscussionof"whatthisisallreallyabout."America
andEuropeareusingaccusationsofRussianhomophobiaasthepretextfortheirnext
roundof"humanitarian"bombings,whiletheStateDepartmentisrelentlesslypursuingthe
gayagendaattheexpenseofallelse.EventheSupremeCourt'smarriageequality
decision(liketheUSprosecutionofFIFAofficials)getsspunasananti-Russianact.
TherabidhomophobiainRussia'scontemporarypublicsphereisclearlyaboutmorethan
justdisdainforsame-sexlove.TohearRussiandefendersof"traditionalvalues"tellit,there
isnothingsofragileasheterosexualdesire.Theassumptionseemstobethat,assoonas
ayoungboyorgirlhearsabouthomosexuality,they'regoingtowanttobegay(because,
apparently,heterosexualsexmustbeaterribledrag).Homosexualityhascometostandin
forthewholespectrumof"Western"(andparticularlyAmerican)valuesthatcouldseduce
Russia'syouth.
Freud,inoneofhismoredatedmoments,arguedthatparanoiaisrootedinadenialof
homoeroticfeelings:"I'mattractedtohim"transformsintothemoreacceptable"Heis
persecutingme."Meanwhile,theRussianlegislaturehasrediscoveredthejoysof
repressionitisarareweekwithoutanewsstoryaboutsomenewbilltobansomething.
Mostfamous,ofcourse,isthe"gaypropaganda"law,makingvirtuallyanypositive
statementabouthomosexualitygroundsforpossibleprosecution(tosavethechildrenfrom
mythicalpredatorswhowantto"convert"them).Again,Americaisinevitablybroughtinto
thediscussion.
Butperhapstheanti-Americanhomophobesprotesttoomuch.Thelatenthomosexualityof
thehomophobeissomethingofaclich,butitsuggestssomethingaboutthegeopolitical
preoccupationsoftheguardiansofRussia'smorality.Theyare,Iwouldargue,tryingto
forgetthesinsoftheiryouth,whentheyexperimentedwithAmericanism.Thatisthenew
lovethatdarenotspeakitsname.
[returntoContents]
#22
http://ukrainecomment.wordpress.com
October15,2015
DIDKYIVSILENCEUKRAINE'SBIGGESTOPPOSITIONNEWSPAPER?PART1
ByBrianMilakovsky
Severodonetsk,Ukraine
BrianMilakovsky,avolunteerwithrefugeeaidorganizationsinKiev,Kharkivandthe
Donbas.BrianMilakovskyfirsttraveledtoUkrainein2009withtheFulbrightprogram,and
forthepastfiveyearshasworkedinRussiaasaforestecologist.Thisyearhereturnedto
easternUkraineforthreemonthstovolunteerwithrefugeeaidorganizationsandlearn
moreaboutthehumanitariancrisisthere.Heisauthorof"TimeforaLousyPeacein
Ukraine"publishedontheNationalInterest.
[Graphics,links,andVestiexcerptshere
http://ukrainecomment.wordpress.com/2015/10/15/did-kyiv-silence-ukraines-biggest-
opposition-newspaper-part-1/]
ThespecterofacrackdownonfreespeechinUkrainewasraisedthisspringbythemurder
ofoppositionjournalistandintellectualOlesBuzinaandthearrestofUkrainianjournalist
RuslanKotsaba,whowaschargedwithunderminingthedraft.Yetashowdownbetween
thegovernment,radicalactivistsandVesti,thecountry'slargestoppositionpaper,has
largelyslippedbyunnoticedbywesterncommentators.
ItcametoaheadinJulyofthisyearwiththeresignationofitseditor-in-chiefIgorGuzhva,
whowaslikelyforcedoutbythepaper'sowner,formerYanukovichallyandoligarch-on-the-
lamAleksandrKlimenko.Strictoversightwasimposedonthepaper,politicallysensitive
materialwithdrawnandafocuson"affirmativetopics"announced.
Inaseriesofpostswewillarguethatthiswasthecommencementofa15month
campaignbyKyivtointimidateoneofitsharshestcriticsintosilence,andnot,as
opponentsofthepaperinsist,amuch-belateddefensivestrikeagainstachannelof
Russianpropagandaandseparatism.
Background
TheVestimediaholding,whichincludesUkraine'smostpopulardailynewspaper("Vesti"),
themostpopulartalkradiostation(RadioVesti),themagazineVesti.Reporterandthe
televisionchannelUBRburstontothescenein2013undertheleadershipofmediaveteran
IgorGuzhva.Withthehelpofanonymousfinancialsupporthepoachedhisstafffromother
majorpapers,including"Sevodnya,"fromwhichhehadbeenfiredayearbeforefor
refusingtopullpicturesofPresidentYanukovich'sabsurdlyluxuriousestateMezhgorye.
Guzhva'sstrategytodistributethepaperforfreeinlargecitiesseemstohavesucceeded-
bythetimeoftheMaidanrevolutionVestiwasthecountry'smostpopulardaily.But
opponentshavepointedtothefreedistributionasproofofadarkeragenda-without
oligarchicorKremlinbacking,whocouldpossiblyaffordtohandouthundredsofthousands
offreepaperseveryday?
CoveringMaidan
Vesti'scoverageoftherevolutionwasrestrained,butshowedgrowingalarmattheviolent
radicalizationoftheprotestandtheincreasingbrutalityofthegovernmentforces.The
paper'scoverageoftheunfoldingchaosearnedittheireofmanyMaidansupporters.Later
afrontpageimageofabalaclava-clad,clubwieldingprotestorwiththeheadline"Dayof
mayhem"wouldbecitedasproofofVesti'sbiasanditsroleas"mouthpieceofthe
Kremlin".
Butothersrespecteditsreporters'willingnesstoreportfromthethickoftheconflict.Oneof
thesereporters,VyacheslavVeremii,wasmurderedinthelastdaysoftherevolutionwhen
heattemptedtophotographabandofarmedthugswhowerepreparingtoattackthe
protestors.Forthisreasonthepapermaintainedtheloyaltyofsomeportionofthe
protestors,includingMaidanSelf-DefenseactivistswhowouldcometotheaidofVesti
reportersmonthslaterwhentheywerebeingintimidatedbyasurlymobledbyradical
Maidanactivist(andvictimofabrutalkidnappingandtorturebytituskhithugs)Igor
Lutsenko.
Vestigaveextensivecoveragetotheprotestorsandtheirdemandsbutalsototheir
opponents(including,strikingly,thenotoriousBerkutriotpolice).Theyfollowedwithalarm
theviolentradicalizationoftheprotestandtheincreasingbrutalityofthegovernmentforces.
Inthe2015Vestibook"RevolutionDiary,"acollectionofVesti'sarticlesaboutMaidan,the
balanceandspreadofthereportingisstriking.Thepaperpublishedthepointsofviewof
barricadeactivistsnexttoBerkutcommanders,andoppositionpartyleadersnexttothe
pro-RussianMPOlegTsarev,whowouldlaterfleetoRussiaandbecomealeaderofthe
unsuccessful"Novorossiya"movement.
Coveringthe"RussianSpring"
IntheaftermathoftherevolutionVestibeganextensivecoverageoftheCrimeaannexation
andthegrowingcrisisintheDonbasregion.Itsjournalists,includingRussianwriters,
reporteddirectlyfromtheeasterncitiesseizedbytheseparatists.Theywroteofthe
dangerouslevelsofalienationtowardsthenewUkrainiangovernment:
"Manypeopletrulyholdtheseconvictions,andit'snotworthsimplifyingeverythingbysaying
thatwhat'shappeningintheDonbasisexclusivelytheworkoftheRussiansecurity
agencies.Theirinfluenceislikelythere,butit'snotRussiancitizensprotestingonthemain
squaresandjoiningtheself-defenseforces.It'smuchmoreseriousthanthat."
(Vesti.ReporterApril18,2014)
ThreearticlespublishedinVesti.Reporterinthisperiodwouldlaterbethebasisfora
criminalinvestigationintothemediaoutletbytheUkrainianSecurityAgency(SBU)on
chargesof"underminingUkrainiansovereignty."Thesearticlescontainextensivequotesby
pro-Russianactivistsandseparatistsupporters,whichdemonstrateboththesincere,
comprehensibleangeroftheeasternersandthedubiouscausestheyhadseizedholdofto
ventit:"protectingtheRussianlanguage,"Orthodoxmilitarism,revivaloftheSovietpast.
Thetoneofthearticlesisnotsympathetictowardseitherthepro-
Russianorpro-Kyivside,butrathertheyconveyareservedagonyattheirmutual
incomprehensionandmythmaking.
Tragically,nomeanswasfoundtoofferapoliticaloutletforthiseasterndiscontent,topeel
offthosewhowantedKyivlistentotheeastfromtheactivecoreoftheseparatist
movement.AlthoughmanyUkrainianswoulddisagreewithsuchanopinion,webelievethat
agenuinelyinclusivepoliticalprocessinitiatedbeforetheviolenceeruptedcouldhave
divertedmanyfuturesupportersofthe"PeoplesRepublics"fromthisradicalpath,andat
leastweakenedthestrengthoftheseparatistcause.ItisasignaltragedyoftheUkrainian
crisisthatVesti'scallswerenotheededandnosuchattemptwasevenmade.
Coveringthewar
AndsoVesti'sreportersbegancoveringthewarintheDonbas.Inthisperiodthelong-form
articlesofVesti.Reporterparticularlystandoutoftheiragonized,clear-eyedassessmentof
events.RussianwriterMarinaAkhmedovadescribedthejournal'smissionas"journalistic
diplomacy:"Wesimplyshowallthehorrorsofthiswarfrombothsides,withonegoal-to
driveitoutofourhearts.Onlyoncethathappenswill"fragileceasefires"becomeconcrete.
InthisblogwewillpublishaseriesofourtranslationsofVesti.Reporter'sbestfrontline
reporting.ButforreadersofRussianweofferdirectlinkshere:
SeveralofthesepiecesplayedacrucialrolefortheeditorsofUkraineCommentinforming
ourunderstandingofthewarintheDonbas.Thepersonalexperiencewethenaccumulated
intheregiononlyservedtoreinforcethesenseofmutualtragedycommunicatedby
Vesti.Reporter'swriters.
ThedailyVestialsoextensivelycoveredthewar,reportingonhighciviliancasualtiesfrom
theverybeginningofthe"anti-terrorismoperation."ThiseditorialstancesoonwonVesti
manyopponents.TogetherwithheadlinewecitedaboveaboutmayhemonMaidan,astark
frontpagewiththewords"Massiveciviliandeathsintheeast"andaniconicphotoof
residentsofStanitsaLuhanskafleeingtheirburninghomewouldlaterbecitesasproofof
thepaper'sbiasand"distortionoffacts".
ThefranklycriticalreportingofVestifromMaidanandthefrontlinesoftheDonbasWar
earneditenemiesfromboththenewgovernmentinKyivandfromthestreet.Inthenext
postinthisserieswewilldescribetheshowdownbetweenthemediaholding,theUkrainian
SecurityAgencyandradicalactiviststhatwouldlastmorethanayearandahalf.
[returntoContents]
#23
October17,2015
ByBrianMilakovsky
[Graphicsherehttp://ukrainecomment.wordpress.com/2015/10/17/did-kyiv-silence-
ukraines-biggest-opposition-newspaper-part-2/]
Inourlastpostwedescribedhowitscritical,conservativeviewoftheEuromaidan
revolution,thenewgovernment'sreactiontotheso-calledRussianSpringandtheconduct
oftheDonbasWarearnedittheUkrainiannewspaperVestithedeepdistrustofthe
authoritiesandthemoniker"MouthpieceoftheKremlin"amongmanyUkrainians.Herewe
willdescribehowthepapercameunderpressurefromboththegovernmentand"activists"
(re:radicals)overthepastyearandahalf.
Accordingtoformereditor-in-chiefIgorGuzhva,inApril2014theholdingwasapproached
byfigureswithinthenewgovernmentwhoproposedthatVestihandoverpartofitsshares,
freeofcharge,asmeanstoavoidconflict.Thiswasrefused,andinMaybeganaseriesof
investigations,searchesandofficialdenunciationsofVestibyhighrankingofficials.
Firstthepaper'sofficeswereraidedandtrashedbyuniformedmenclaimingtobetax
authorities,althoughtheydidnotpresentanyidentification.Theyseizedthepaper's
servers.ThenextdayapressconferencewasheldbytheCabinetofMinisters,wherethe
allegedlyshadyfinancialschemeofthenewspaperwaspresentedtoassembledreporters.
However,Vestijournalistsweredeniedaccesstothepressconference,supposedly
becausetheydidnothave"accreditation".
ThegovernmentthenallegedthatVestilaundered93.6millionhryvnia($4.2million)through
acomplexshellgameofcompaniesinCrimeasupposedlylinkedtotheexiledKharkiv
oligarchSergeyKurchenko.Onthebasisofthesefindingstheaccountsofboththe
newspaperandGuzhvaweretemporarilyfrozen,butafterseveralweeksthecase
appearedtobeshelved.
TheninSeptemberanentirelynewaccusationwasraisedbytheUkrainianSecurity
Service(SBU),whenitallegedthatfourarticlespublishedbyVestithreatenedUkraine's
territorialintegrityandinviolability.TheSBUconductedanotherraidofthepaper'soffices
andpreventedanyemployeesfromleavingormakingphonecalls.Servers,laptopsand
personalnotebookswereseized.
Raid
OfficersoftheUkrainianSecurityService(SBU)confiscatingservers,laptopsandpersonal
notebooksofreportersduringaraidontheofficesofVestinewspaperinSeptember,2014.
ThepaperwasaccusedofthreateningUkrainiansovereignty.Source:vesti-ukr.com
ThecontentofthefourarticlesrevealsthattheSBU'sdefinitionoftreasonouscontentis
exceedinglywide.Inourfirstpostwedescribedthetoneandcontentofthreeofthearticles,
publishedinthelongf-formjournalVesti.Reporter.Theybluntlydisplaythealienationand
ragethatswelledintheDonbasafterinMarchandAprilof2014,andwhichRussiawould
soontapintowithitsseparatistproject.Butbynomeansisthereaderencouragedtoagree
withthem,or,forthatmatter,todisagreewiththem.Justtolisten.
Thefourtharticle,publishedinthedaily,detailsaccusationsbysoldiersandvolunteer
activistsaboutthesaleofmilitarysuppliesandthewithholdingofpayanddischarge
papers.Thepiecepresentsthepointofviewofthesoldiers,notesthatthearmyrefusedto
commentandputsforwardapartiallydissentingviewbyarmyveterans.
TheraidandcourtcaseearnedthecondemnationoftheOrganizationforSecurityand
CooperationinEurope(OSCE),whichcalledonKyivnottopressurecriticaljournalists.
Thisinvestigationtoowasshelvedwhenthegovernment'skeywitness,aforensiclinguist,
confirmedthelackofaninflammatorycontentinthefourarticles.
Notlongafterthis,RadioVestiwonanappealagainstadecisionbytheNational
CommissiononRadioandTelevisionnottopermittheholdingtobroadcastin26cities
whereithadpurchasedradiostations.TheCommissionhadnotofferedanyreasonforits
refusal,andmanyobserverssawitasanother"front"inthegrowingconfrontationbetween
thegovernmentandthecriticalmediaempire.
Thecourtofpublicopinion
Meanwhilepro-governmentactiviststargetedthepaper,peacefullyandotherwise.TheCivil
SectoroftheEuromaidanmovementheldfrequentanti-Vestidemonstrationsinthecapital.
Asoneprotestorganizershoutedthroughamegaphone:
"ThismouthpieceoftheKremlinismeantodestroytheconsciousnessofUkrainians,
deceivingthemabouttheeventsgoingonintheeastandincitingcivilwarinourcountry.
Webelievethatthearticlesinthisnewspaperkillnolessthanbullets."
RegularpicketswereorganizednearthepointsoutsideofmetrostopsinKyivwhereVesti
ishandedoutforfreeeverymorning.Youngpeoplewouldholdsignscallingonpasserby
nottotakeinthepaper's"Kremlinpropaganda."Frequentlytheywoulddressaszombies,
insinuatingthatVestizombifiesitsreaderswithmisinformation.
Theseprotestssoonescalated.InJuneacrowdofmaskedyouthsjeeredandthreatened
participantsinaConstitutionDaycelebrationorganizedatthepaper'soffices.Theirleader,
radicalparliamentarianIgorLutsenkowarned"Thisisourlastpeacefuldemonstration
aboutVesti.Wewon'thaveanymorepatienceiftheydon'tchangetheireditorialpolicy."
OnlytheinterventionofMaidanSelf-Defenseactivistswhohadmaintainedgoodrelations
withthepaperpreventedtheyouthsfromphysicallyassaultingtheeventparticipantsor
lightinguptheflaresthatVestireportersclaimedtheyhadbroughtinbackpacks.
Aweeklateralargermobofbalaclava-cladyouthssmashedthewindowsofVesti'soffices,
threwinflaresandbadlybeatasecurityguard.Thevideoshotbythepaper'ssecurity
camerashowstheabandonandviciousgleethatofamobconvincedofitstotallicense.
OlesVakhnii,theleaderofthenotoriousnationalistandskinheadorganizationChestnoe
Slovo("HonestWord")tookresponsibilityfortheattacks.WhenVestiapproachedhim
aboutthishesaid"Acceptedmoralnormsdon'tneedtobeappliedtoyou.It'sacceptableto
beatyouontheheadwithclubs,poisonyouwithgas."Vakhniiearlierspentfiveyearsinjail
fororganizinganattackontheofficesoftheLeagueofUkrainianVoters(allegedlyforitsUS
funding),thentwoyearsinjailforracistincitement.HeisyettobearrestedfortheVesti
attacksdespitethefactthathepostedafilmedconfessiononYoutube,althoughnowheis
underhousearrestforallegedlybeatingaKyivcityprosecutorwhohadopenedadifferent
caseagainsthim.
Inspringof2015VestiactivistsofthenotoriousRightSectororganizationblockedVesti
deliverytrucksattwoKyivmetrostationsandseized45000copiesofthepaper,whichthey
soldforscraptobuypatrioticschooltextbooks.Theyclaimed"Wearefightinganinternal
enemy,thepropagandanewspaperVesti...whichstandsforeverythingthatourbrothers
aredyingforintheEast."Latertheorganization'spresssecretarycommentedthat"The
mainthingisthatwearenotforcensorship,butforjournalisticstandardsandobjectivity."
Thevideoincludesafascinatingaltercationbetweenthe"Pravoseki"andagroupofsenior
citizenswhohadcometogettheirfreemorningpaper.TheelderlyUkrainiansbegin
haranguingtheheadactivist:
-Whodecidedthatthesepapersshouldbeconfiscated?
-Thecourts.
-Whatcourt?Whenandwhere?
-ThePeople'scourt.
-What,you're"thePeople'scourt"now?
-Yes,I'mthePeople.
-Huh!Justone!Andtherestofus,we'renotthePeople?
-Youaretoo.
-Wellwewanttoreadthatpaper!
-Goreadsomethingotherthanpro-Russianpapersthatsupportseparatism!Andwhydon't
youspeakUkrainian?
Thepensionerscontinuetoarguewithhim(manyofthemswitchingtoUkrainian)and
angrilycryingout"lawlessness!"
JustaswasthecasewiththeearliersackingoftheVestioffices,thegovernmentcouldnot
makeacaseevenwithafilmedcommissionofthecrime.
GuzhvaallegedthattheSBUrecruitsradicalstoattackgovernmentcriticsinexchangefor
stayingoutofjailthemselves.InadetailedpieceinVestioneofhisjournalistsquoteda
representativeofChestnoeSlovo,theradicalorganizationwhichtookresponsibilityforthe
Julyattackonhispaper:"TogetherwiththeSBUweworkagainstseparatismandthe
opposition,whowishtounderminenationalsecurityanddiscreditthegovernment."Inthe
organization'sofficesthereisacitationofappreciationfromSBUheadValentin
Nalivaichenkofor"significantcontributionstothemaintenanceandstrengtheningofnational
security."
Thearticle'saccusationsprovedparticularlyominouswhenthecontroversialanti-Maidan
journalistandcommentatorOlesBuzinawasmurderedafewdayslater,allegedlyby
extremenationalistsservinginoneofthevolunteerbrigadesintheeast.Inresponseto
publicshockatBuzina'sdeathawell-knownbattalionleaderwroteonFacebookthathe
wassurprisedpeoplewoulddoubtthatthejournalistwaskilledby"patriots":
Ifindthesepeopleinterestingwhojustalittlewhileagoshouted'Oy,boyscomebackfrom
thefrontandputthingsinorderhere!'[butnowareshockedbyBuzina'sdeath].Whatelse
didtheyhaveinmindby'puttingthingsinorder?'Atthefronttheydon'tteachyoutowaste
yourtimesittingincourthearingsorwritingcomplaints.
GuzhvaclaimedthatasmearcampaignhadbeenongoingagainstBuzinaforthepastyear,
ledby"apackofhysterical,intolerantmediainstigatorswhocallforreprisalsagainst
anyonewho,intheiropinion,hasanincorrectpointofview.Becauseofthemtheofficesof
Vestiweretrashedandourdistributorsattacked.AndpossiblyBuzinawaskilledbecauseof
them."
Endgame
OnJournalismDay(June5)atapressconferenceaboutfreedomofthepressPresident
Poroshenkoclaimedthatitisnothisjobtoorderthatsomemediaoutletoranotherbeshut
down.Buthethenadded"...Ifthetaxauthoritiesprovethenon-transparencyofVesti's
financing,thereshouldbenodoubtthatthecountrywilldefenditself..."
ThreedayslatertheTaxAuthoritiescalledin242currentandformeremployeesofthe
paperforquestioning,essentiallyanyonewhoreceivedtheirsalaryelectronically.Some
employeesclaimedthattheauthoritiesaggressivelybadgeredthem,threatenedthemand
theirrelativeswhileconvincingthemtocomedowntothestation.
Thiswassoonfollowedbyyetanotherraidonthepaper'sofficesbyuniformedmen
offeringnoi.d.Theyclaimedtohaveacourtordertosearchthepremisesof"VestiMass-
MediaLLC"eventhoughtthatcompanyisn'tlocatedinVesti'snewspaperoffices.Theydid
notallowjournalistsornewspaper'slawyersontothepremises,gavetheofficesanother
thoroughtrashingandonceagain,confiscatedtheservers.Around500peoplegathered
outsideoftheVerkhovnaRadaandTaxAuthoritytoprotesttheraid.
Theculminationofthe15monthstandoffwasathand.Guzhvaleftthecountryonvacation,
andfromabroadsuddenlycamethenewsthathehadhadsoldhissharesinthemedia
holdingtohispartnersandsteppeddownaseditor-in-chief.Ukrainianmediawatchers
quicklycirculatedtheversionthatVesti'smajorityowner,exiledoligarchAleksander
Klimenko,hadbargainedhiswaybackintoUkrainebyforcingtheoverlycriticalGuzhvaout
ofthepaper.Anonymoussourceswithinthepaper'sstaffclaimedthatoverseersfromthe
presidentialadministrationwouldbeinstalledtofilteroutanyimpropermaterials.Thenew
spokesmanforthepaper,Klimenko'scommonlawwife,announcedanewfocuson
"affirmativetopics."
Guzvhareturnedfromabroadandwasimmediatelysummonedtocourtonchargesoftax
evasion,whichpurportedlywerebasedonevidencefromthelatestraid.Thejudgedenied
theprosecutor'srequestforamassive17millionhryvnia($727,000)bail,imposingamore
standard1million($45,000).HealsoforbadeGuzhvatoleaveKyivwithoutexplicit
permissionfromthecourt.Guzhvaincourt
Atthepresenttimetheformereditorispreparinghisdefense.HeclaimsthattheTax
Agency,lackingthebasisforarealcaseafterayearofinvestigationandraids,manipulated
thefactsinordertocreatetheillusionofacrime.Inhiscomplicatedexplanation,thepaper
tookreturnablefinancialassistancefromafirminSumyin2013,butwasunabletoreturn
thesumintimebecausethefirm'saccountswerefrozenduringtheinitialinvestigationof
VestiinMayof2014.AccordingtoUkrainianlaw,thepapermustnowwaitfortheexpiration
ofthestatuteoflimitations(threeyears),andthenincludethissuminitsgrossincomeand
payincometaxonit."Butthetaxauthoritiesdecidedondirectforgery.Theychoseto
regardthefinancialassistancewereceivedasirrevocableanddemandthatweshould
haveincludeditinourgrossincomeandpaidincometaxesonitin2014.Andsincewe
didn'tdothat,theyhaveaformaloccasiontopresenttousthechargesoftaxevasion."
The"new"Vesti
TheholdingcuttieswithallRussianwritersandjournalists,whomadeupasignificant
contingentonRadioVestiandinReporter(includingMarinaAkhmedova,authorofsomeof
thejournal'smostpowerfulwarjournalismfromDonetsk).Theeditor-in-chiefof
Vesti.Reporter,GlebProstakov,describedthechangesthus:"wewilltrytolookatbroader
trendsandnotrunaroundafterthelatestnewsmakers....Morereportingformtheregions,
moreemphasisonurbanism.Butwewon'tshyawayfromstrongopinions,we'vekeptour
teeth."
ButitsoonbecameclearthatGuzhva'sexitpositedrealchangesinVesti'stoneand
editorialstance.AnalreadyprintedissueofVesti.Reporterwasheldbackfromdistribution,
whichsourceswithinthepaperattributetoanarticleabouttheintricaciesofPoroshenko's
innercircleandcompetitionwiththe"Georgiancourt"ofexiledreformersledbyMikhail
Saakashvili.Severalcopiesmadetheirwayintothehandsofmediacommentators,who
publishedscannedversionsonline.Thejournalitselfwassoonreprintedanddistributed
withoutthetouchyarticle.
NextinlinewassensationalreportingbyreporterSvetlanaKriukovaontheearlyelectionsin
thenortherncityofChernihiv.GennadyKorban,acorporateraiderandallyofthecountry's
mostprominentoligarch(IgorKolomoisky)ballotedagainstPresidentPoroshenko's
handpickedcandidate.Fromthefirstdaysofthecampaignitbecameclearthatthiswould
beanextraordinarilyuglyelection."Iwasmadeawarethatthispiecewouldneverget
publishedinReporterwhileIwasstillonassignment,"KryukovatoldtheeditorsofUkraine
Comment."Iwastravelingwith[candidate]KorbanandatonepointIturnedtohimandsaid
'Ihopethisstorywillbegood,becauseI'mgonnalosemyjobforit'."
InherpieceKorbanwasshowntobeacrudepopulist,earningthehumorousinternet
nickname"MarshalBuckwheat"aftersewingsupportbygivingoutfreebuckwheatkashato
thepoorandelderly.Manyvoterswereshowntobeinsuchdesperateeconomicstraits
thattheirvotewasvirtuallytheonlysaleableresourceattheirdisposal.
Moredamningly,thepresident'scandidateBerezenkoliberallyusedvariousschemesto
purchasethosevotesoutright.AtonepointinthepieceKorban'scampaignteam
surroundsalockedcarinwhichtheyhavebeentoldBerezenko'svotebuyersarelocated.
Thetwomeninsideareobservedtearingupsheetsofpaperandeatingthem.Afteramulti-
hourstandofftheyarehustledawaybythepolicebutasearchofthetrunkreveals500
envelopesstuffedwith400hryvniaeach($18)andanentirearsenaloffirearms.Laterone
oftheapartmentsisdescribedwherecityresidentscancometocollecttheir$18afterthey
showapictureofBerezenkoandpromisetovoteforhim.
Whenitbecameclearthatthepiecewouldneverseepublicationinthe"new"Vesti,
KryukovaresignedandtookherworktothecompetingpaperUkrainskaPravda.Itprovedto
beoneofthemosthotlydiscussedpiecesofpoliticaljournalisminpost-MaidanUkraine.
SeveralnewsroomveteransfollowedGuzhvaandKryukovaoutofthepaper,includingone
writerwhoclaimedthatthenewmanagementforcedthenewsstafftoremoveeventhe
smallestmentionofIgorGuzvha'scourtcasefromthepaper.Vesti.Reporter'schiefwar
correspondentInnaZolotukhynaquit,claiming"TheconceptofReporterwaschanged.Now
theydon'twriteabouttheATO[anti-terrorismoperation]there.AndIcontinuetothinkthatin
acountrywherethere'sawaron,thatshouldbetopicnumberone."AndinOctober
Zolotukhynawasfollowedoutbythejournal'seditor-in-chief,GlebProstakov.
Muzzled
TheextraordinarypressureexertedontheVestimediaholdingoverthelastfifteenmonths
shouldraiseseriousquestionsaboutwhethertheexitofitseditor-in-chiefwasmorethan
theresultofmerenewsroomandboardroompolitics.
ItappearsthatKyivjettisoneditscruderstrategytosilencethepaper-theaccusationsof
separatistsupportandassociatedraid-afteritearnedthecondemnationoftheOSCE.But
removingGuzhvawhileleavingthepaperlargelyintacttocontinuepublicationisalow-risk
neutralizationstrategy.IthasnotcaughttheattentionofKyiv'swesternbackers,whoclaim
theywillholdUkrainetohighstandardsofdemocratization.AsUSambassadortotheUN
SamanthaPowersstatedinJune,"Ukraineshouldzealouslyprotectfreedomofthepress,
includingforitsmostoutspokenandbiasedcritics-indeed,especiallyforitsmost
outspokenandbiasedcritics-evenastheso-calledseparatistsexpeljournalistsfromthe
territorytheycontrol,andevenasRussiashuttersTatarmediaoutletsinoccupiedCrimea."
GennadyKorban,well-experiencedincorporateraidingandUkrainianpolitics,described
whathadoccurredthus:"Ihaveasimple,inexpensiveandeffectivemethodforprivatizing
freedomofspeech.Youneedtodojusttwothings-getthesupportofthepresidential
administration,andthenslapanynewspaperyouwantwithfinesforfinancialviolations.
Afterthatthey'llputoutawarrantfortheeditorandyou'vegotfreedomofspeechinyour
pocket...ThisrecipewasfirstcookedupinRussiaafterVladimirPutincametopower.By
thismethodhehadhiswaywithfreedomofspeechinhishomeland."
ThequestionnowisifVesti'svariousmediaoutletsbegintoblunttheircriticismofthe
president,avoidcontentiousissueand"focusontheaffirmative,"willinternational
organizationsandthewesternpressrecognizethatUkraine'sbiggestoppositionpaperwas
muzzled?
InournextpostinthisserieswewilldiscussinmoredetailwhatVesti'sfatemeansfor
freedomofthepressintoday'sUkraine.
[returntoContents]
#24
MoscowTimes
October19,2015
PoroshenkoPressuresTVChanneltoKeepPutinHandshakeOff-Air
ByAnnaDolgov
AUkrainiantelevisionchannelhaspublishedastatementbyitsformerproducer,claiming
officialsfromPresidentPetroPoroshenko'sadministrationbannedthechannelfrom
broadcastingfootageofahandshaketheUkrainianleaderexchangedwithhisRussian
counterpartVladimirPutinatarecentmeeting.
ThehandshaketookplaceatthestartofameetinginParisonOct.2,butwhentelevision
channel112Ukrainawaspreparingareportaboutthegathering,itreceiveda"barrageof
calls"fromthepresidentialadministrationandsecurityservices"abouttheunacceptability
ofshowingthehandshakeontheair,"formerproducerViktorZubritskysaidonhis
FacebookpageSunday.
"So,PoroshenkoshookPutin'shand,butdidnotwantUkrainianstoknownaboutit,"
Zubritskysaid."Andsomehowstrangely,allofUkraine'stelevisionchannelsdidnotnotice
thatevent."
Thetelevisionchannelreprintedthepostinfullonitswebsite,withoutaddinganycomment.
Italsoincludedaphoto,creditedtoFrance'sForeignMinistry,ofPutinandPoroshenko
shakinghands.
ZubritskyalsoaccusedtheUkrainianpresidentofputtingpressureon112Ukraina,and
linkedarecentcourtwarranttosearchthechannel'sofficestothechannel'srefusalto
shelvethefootageofthehandshake.
"Poroshenko,withthehelpofhiscohorts...hasbeenusingtheusualarsenalofatyrant-
threatsofopeningorclosingcriminalcases,threatsofrevokingthedigital[broadcasting]
license,"Zubritskysaid.
Thechannelisunderinvestigationonsuspicionofmoneylaundering,Zubritskysaid,
describingthecaseaspunishmentfor112Ukraina'scriticalcoverageofthepresident.
"Thisfinalrefusalto'notshowhishandshake'hasledtoaUkrainiancourtapprovingon
Friday,Oct.16,awarranttosearchwithinamonththeofficesof112Ukrainatelevisionand
toseizeallcomputers,digitaldata-storagedevicesandsoon,"Zubritskysaid."Inother
words-tocarryouttechnicalmovestowardterminatingthetelevisionchannel'swork."
The112Ukrainachannelhasreceivedseveralgovernmentwarningsthisyearfor
supposedlyviolatingthetermsofitsbroadcastinglicense,Russia'sRBCbusinessnews
agencyreported.
PutinandPoroshenko,alongwithFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeandGerman
ChancellorAngelaMerkel,metinParisonOct.2inanattempttobringpeacetoeastern
Ukraine,whereMoscow-backedseparatistsarefightingKievgovernmentforces.
[returntoContents]
#25
Gazeta.ru
October13,2015
AntonLinnik,PoroshenkoControlsOnlyKiev.WhoWillWininUkraine'sCitiesWithMore
ThanMillionInhabitants
TheelectionsinUkraine,whicharejustovertwoweeksaway,willproducelotsof
surprises.[UkrainianPresidentPetro]Poroshenko'steamwilltakecontrolonlyofKiev,
wherevictoryisbeingpredictedfor[Vitaliy]Klitschko,thepresentmayor.Inotherregionsan
activestruggleisbeingwagedamongregionalleaders,withwhomPoroshenkowillnotfind
itthateasytoreachagreement.Propresidentialforcesmaymakeuseoftheadministrative
resource,andexpertsarenamingKharkivandDnipropetrovskashotspots.
AnactivestruggleforvotershasbeguninUkraine:billboardsthroughoutthecountrybear
thefacesofpotentialcandidatesforlocalorgansofpower,stallsandplaygroundswith
dedicatoryinscriptionsarebeingsetupinhouseyards,andcampaignersareactively
handingoutleaflets.Allthisatteststhataseriousstruggleisbrewingamongthepolitical
forces,andPresidentPetroPoroshenkowillfindithardtotakecontrolofthecountry'skey
cities-Kiev,Lviv,Dnipropetrovsk,Kharkiv,andOdessa.
Thetoughestrivalryistraditionallyovertherighttoleadthecapital.About30people,
includingmanyfamousnames,arenowaspiringtothepostofKievmayor.Thefollowing
haveadvancedtheircandidacies-ex-PrimeMinisterYuriyYekhanurov,professionalsoldier
VolodymyrRuban,legalexpertTatyanaMontyan,ex-politicalprisonerDmytro
Pavlyuchenko,ex-battalioncommanderBoryslavBereza,restaurateurSerhiyHusovskyy,
andothers.ButtherealstrugglewillgetunderwayamongVitaliyKlitschko,ex-KievMayor
OleksandrOmelchenko,andHennadiyKorban,ex-deputygovernorofDnipropetrovsk
Region.
"Accordingtoourforecasts,VitaliyKlitschkoandOleksandrOmelchenko,whoarouses
nostalgiainmanyKievresidents,willgetthroughtothesecondround.Butvictorywillstill
gotothepresentmayor,whoenjoysthesupportofoneinfiveresidentsofthecapital,"a
sourceintheKievadministrationsaid.Thepropresidentialpoliticalforceisalsocountingon
amajorityontheKievCouncil.
Accordingtoourinterlocutor'sinformation,HennadiyKorbanisnotevenreckoningon
becomingmayorbutisjustpreparingfortheparliamentaryelectionsjointlywithUkrop,a
newpoliticalforce.AllimportantvotesthatareputtotheSupremeCouncilattesttothe
coalition'simminentcollapse.Forexample,thedraftlawmakingchangestothe
constitutionwasadoptedonlywiththehelpoftheOppositionBloc,whereasSelf-Help,the
partyofLvivMayorAndriySadovyy(amemberofthecoalition),refusedtosupportthe
importantdocument.Itisthetensesituationinparliamentthatenablessomepolitical
analyststoassumethatnewelectionsofpeople'sdeputiesmaybescheduledasearlyas
nextspring.
Difficulttoreachagreement
ThebiggestchanceofwinninginLvivbelongstoAndriySadovyy,thelocalmayor.About10
candidateswishtocompetewithhim.Buttheyhavenochance.Accordingtoresearch
carriedoutthissummerbytheRazumkovCentre,42.5percentofLvivresidentsare
preparedtosupportSadovyyforthepostofmayor.Self-Helpwillalsogetamajorityof
votesonthelocalcouncil.TherightPRstrategyhelpedthemayortoachievesuchagood
result:Lviv'smayorisurgingallthemajorITcompanies,whoseofficesarenowbeing
searchedenmassebyrepresentativesofthelawenforcementorgans,tomovetothe
capitalofGalicia.Suchactivenessisyieldingfruit:TheflowoftouriststoLvivwillincrease
10-15percentthisyear,andthecityhasalreadystartedtoovertakeKievintermsofgrowth
ofbusinessactivity.Asourceinthepresident'sadministrationsaidthatPoroshenkois
unabletofindmutualunderstandingwithSadovyy,whodoesnotconcealhispresidential
ambitions."AndriySadovyyisarealaspiranttothepostofheadofstate,"Gazeta.ru's
interlocutorexplained.
ThesituationinOdessa,wheremorethan40peoplewillfightforthepostofmayor,ismore
unpredictable.Forexample,thefollowingintendtoadvancetheircandidacy-Eduard
Hurvits,ex-governorofOdessaRegionHennadiyTrukhanov,thepresentmayorandalso
SashaBorovyk,arepresentativeofthePetroPoroshenkobloc.Thestruggleissotough
thaton10October,followinganexplosionnearhishome,People'sDeputySerhiyKivalov
droppedoutoftheelectionrace.
Intheopinionofrepresentativesofthecitycouncil,Trukhanov,thepresentmayor,hasthe
bestchancenow,buttheOppositionBlocwilltakethemajorityonthecitycouncil.
GovernorMikheilSaakashviliwillfindithardtofindacommonlanguagewiththewinnersof
thelocalelections,andthiscouldhaveasubstantialimpactonhisprogrammefor
reformingtheregion.Forexample,Saakashvilihasalreadypromisedhissupporttoallwho
wishtoinvestinOdessa.Buthowisthistoberealizednowinpractice,forheis
responsibleforthedevelopmentoftheregion,notthecity?
HotSpots
ExpertsnametheelectionsinKharkivandDnipropetrovskasthemostproblematicones.
ThisisconnectedwiththefactthatHennadiyKernes,thepresentmayor,againstwhom
criminalproceedingshavebeeninstitutedforseparatiststatements,enjoysthegreatest
supportamongthepeopleofKharkiv.Buttheofficialhimselfassociatestheprosecution
withhisstance."Iaminoppositiontotheregime,Imeanthecurrentregime,becauseIdo
notunderstandwhatishappeningnow-people'simpoverishment,whattariffs,andso
forth,"Kernesdeclared.
VolodymyrFesenko,presidentofthePentaCentreforAppliedPoliticalStudies,doesnot
ruleoutthepossibilitythattheelectionsmaybewrecked.TheexpertpresumesthatKernes
maybethewinner,butacourtverdictonhimwillemergeaftertheelections-whichwill
makeitpossibletoneutralizehim.
ThemostcomplexsituationisbeingobservedinDnipropetrovsk,whereOleksandrVilkul,a
representativeoftheOppositionBloc,hasagoodchanceofwinning.AndriyZolotaryov,
leaderoftheThirdSectorcentre,confirmedthattheregioncentrewillessentiallybecome
oneofthehotspots."Itisnotaquestionthereofastruggleofparties,itisaquestionthere
ofastruggleofclans.ThecampaigninDnipropetrovskhasbeenfullofconflictfromthe
outset,andthereisagreatriskthatthecitymayendupadestabilizationpointbythetime
ofvoting,"hebelieves.Theregioncentreisofhugesignificancetothecountry'seconomy,
andvictoryforarepresentativeoftheOppositionBloccouldleadtotheemergenceinthe
cityofanotherself-proclaimedrepublic.Obviously,thisfactscaresPresidentPetro
Poroshenkomostofall.
Fortheparliamentarypartiestheresultsoftheirparticipationinthe25Octoberlocal
electionscouldbeunexpected,VitaliyBala,leaderoftheSituationsModellingAgency,
believes.
"Thiswillbeashock,"hesaid.Accordingtohim,the"heavyweightparties"werecounting
on"preserving"themselvesinpowerbasedontheupcomingelectionresults.But
sociologicalresearchshowsthatinlocalelectionspeoplearemoreinclinedtosupport
partiesthataregearedtolocalleadersandtopeoplewithauthorityintheregion.Local
politicalprojectsaresqueezingoutthemajorpartiesintheeastofthecountry,Vadym
Karasyov,directoroftheInstituteofGlobalStrategies,believes.
"Inanumberofregionsintheeastandsouthofthecountryeitherrepresentativesofthe
OppositionBlocorrepresentativesofnewpoliticalforcesconnectedwithlocalelites-Our
Land,Revival-willwintheelections,"VolodymyrFesenkoadded.Thisisconnectedwith
thefactthatthebigpoliticalpartieshavedevotedverylittletimetotheregions.
[returntoContents]
#26
Stratfor.com
October14,2015
Stratfor:aGrandBargainremainselusiveinUkraine
Summary:StratforprovidesastatusreportontheUkrainecivilwar,afesteringboilinthe
heartofEuropeandsparkthathawksonbothsidesareusingtorestartthecoldwar.These
conflictsusuallyendindiplomacythatpointseemsfaraway.
Forecast
Becauseofpoliticalconsiderations,KievwillnotfullysubmittoseparatistandRussian
demandsforamnestyand"specialstatus"powersineasternUkraine.
EuropewillencouragetheUkrainiangovernmenttobeaccommodating,buttheUnited
Stateswillpushforahard-lineapproach.
Russiawillkeepitsoptionsopenandwillnotabandonthepossibilityoframpingupmilitant
activityifKievandtheWestareuncooperative.
Analysis
Afterayearofslow-burningconflictineasternUkraine,therelationshipbetweenKievand
Moscowseemstofinallybeimproving.Fightingonthegroundhasdissipated,therehave
beenpositivedevelopmentsintalksoverthepastfewweeksandbothsidesbegantopull
heavyweaponrybackfromthelineofcontactinearlyOctober.Moreover,Russiaand
Ukrainehaveagreedonatemporarynaturalgasdealandwillbegindirectnegotiationson
Kiev'stermsofrepaymentforabondthatmaturesinDecember.Andinamajor
concessiontoKievanditsWesternbackers,theseparatistterritoriesofDonetskand
LuhanskannouncedOct.6thattheywouldpostponelocalelections.
ThesedevelopmentssignalprogresstowardendingthestandoffbetweenRussiaandthe
WestoverUkraine.However,abroadersettlementwillstillbedifficulttoachieveandis
unlikelytobereachedbeforetheendoftheyear.
GlimmersofCompromise
TensionbetweenRussiaandtheWestoverUkrainemountedduringthefirsteightmonths
oftheyear.Bothgovernmenttroopsandseparatistsregularlyviolatedthecease-firesigned
inFebruaryaspartoftheMinskagreement.Andcasualtiessteadilyincreased,reaching
nearly8,000sincethestartofthefightinginApril2014.Inthemeantime,RussiaandNATO
builtupsecurityandincreasedthetempoofmilitaryexercisesalongtheRussia-Ukraine
border.TheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnionalsointensifiedsanctionsagainstRussia,
whileMoscowrespondedwithitsowneconomicrestrictionsontheWest.
TheUkraine-Russiaconflict
However,thingsbegantochangeinSeptember.Themonthbeganwithwhatwas
supposedtobeaone-weekcease-firetocoincidewiththebeginningoftheschoolyear.
Instead,thecessationoffightinghasheldforoverfiveweekswithrelativelyfewviolations
andnodeaths.Thiscalmonthebattlefieldhaslentmomentumtotheeffortstoimplement
theMinskprotocolsatatacticallevel,seenmosttangiblywiththepulloutofheavy
weaponryfromthelineofcontactbyUkrainianforcesbeginningOct.4.
Thiswithdrawal,inturn,promptedtherebelstostartremovingtheirheavyweaponry,and
onOct.6representativesfromDonetskandLuhanskannouncedthattheywouldpostpone
theirlocalelectionsuntil2016,amovemadewiththetacitapprovalofMoscow.
NegotiationsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveprogressedonotherissuesaswell.On
Sept.26,thetworeachedanaturalgasagreement,whichasofOct.12endedacutoffin
placesinceJune.Thedealistemporary,meanttolastthroughwinter-similartolastyear's
agreement.Nonetheless,thefinalaccordwastheresultofacompromiseonthepriceby
bothsides.
Therehasalsobeenmovementonanothercontentiousissue:thematurationofa$3billion
bondUkrainewassettopayofftoRussiabyDecember.RussianFinanceMinisterAnton
SiluanovannouncedOct.5thatheplanstomeetwithhisUkrainiancounterpartthisweek
todiscussthebondrepayment.Thiswillbethefirsttimesuchformaltalkshavebeenheld.
Uptothispoint,Kievhasinsistedthatitwillnotmaketherepaymentunlessitis
restructuredinawaysimilartoanAugustdebtreliefdealwithWesternbondholders.
Russiahassofarrefusedtherequest,butdirecttalksontheissuemayopenthewayfor
yetanothercompromisebetweenKievandMoscow,thoughtalkscouldalsostrengthen
Moscow'shandagainstKievinareassuchasUkraine'snegotiationswiththeInternational
MonetaryFund.
ObstaclestoResolution
Therecentcompromisesandengagementhavegivenrisetospeculationthatagrand
bargainmaybetakingshapeamongRussia,UkraineandtheWest.Moscowisnewly
cooperativebecauseofitsdramaticeconomiccontractionandbecauseofthepoliticaland
militarylimitsofextendingitspushintoeasternUkraine.SeveralEUcountriesarealso
interestedinde-escalatingtheconflict,especiallythosewhoseeconomieshavebeenhurt
byEuropeansanctionsandbyRussiancountersanctions.
Despitethegainsmadeinthepastmonth,abroadersettlementlikelywillnotbereached
beforetheendoftheyearforseveralreasons.Firstandforemost,thepathoutlinedbythe
Minskprotocolsisopentointerpretation.Thereisnocleardefinitionofwhatthe"special
status"giventotheseparatistterritoriesactuallyis.Therebelssaythestatusgivesthem
long-termautonomyoverissuessuchasdefenseandforeignpolicy,whileKievinsiststhe
statusisonlytemporaryandappliesonlytoareassuchasbudgetarypolicyandcultural
affairs.
Upholdingthecease-firewillpavethewayforfurthernegotiation,butcomingtofinalterms
willbefarmoredifficult.Second,theissueofamnestyforseparatistfightershasnotbeen
settled.MilitantsarecallingforablanketamnestywhiletheUkrainiangovernmentinsists
amnestyshouldonlybegrantedonanindividualandselectivebasis.
Third,eveniftheUkrainiangovernmentandtheseparatistsareabletoagreeonaway
forward,Kiev'sdomesticsituationwillcauseproblems.WhileRussiaandtheseparatists
increasethepressuretograntgreaterpoliticalconcessionsineasternUkraine,
ultranationalistgroups,particularlyRightSectorandSvoboda,havepushedintheopposite
direction.Thesegroupsopposeanycompromisewithseparatistsand,asaviolent
SeptemberrallyinKievagainstconstitutionalamendmentsshowed,theyareableto
destabilizethepoliticalsystem.ThisleavesKievinadifficultposition-favorablemoves
towardeithersidecouldleadtoblowbackbytheother.
Finally,theUnitedStatescouldposeanotherobstacletoresolution.CertainEuropean
countries,includingGermanyandFrance,areinterestedinde-escalatingtheconflict,but
theUnitedStateshasmaintainedanaggressiveposturetowardRussia.Washingtonhas
increasedfinancialassistance,heldmorefrequentmilitarytrainingsandmulledanincrease
indefensiveweaponsuppliestoUkraine.TheUnitedStateshaslesstolosebymaintaining
sanctionsagainstRussiaandhaslessofaninterestineasingthemthandoesthe
EuropeanUnion.
AgrandbargainwouldneedtoincludetheUnitedStates,butWashingtonisuninterestedin
adealthatdoesnotincludeacompletepulloutofRussiantroopsfromeasternUkraine.
RussiahasattemptedtouseissuessuchasitsgrowingroleintheSyrianconflicttobring
theUnitedStatestothenegotiatingtable,butsofarithasbeenunsuccessful.
TheseobstaclesdonotprecludeprogressinnegotiationsbetweenRussia,Ukraineandthe
West,andallofthemaresubjecttochange.Butthoughtalksmaywellleadtomoreroom
forcompromiseovercertainmilitary,politicalandeconomicissues,acomprehensive
settlementwillbeelusiveforthenearfuture.
[returntoContents]
#27
KyivPost
October18,2015
ReturntoVolnovakha:Ninemonthsafter13civilianskilledinRussian-separatistattack,
loyaltiesstilldivided
ByStefanHuijboom
VOLNOVAKHA,Ukraine-HerstylishblondehairandhighheelsturntheheadsofUkrainian
soldiersasshedescendsthebus,onesoldiercheckingherpassportatthecheckpointthat
leadstothesmallUkrainian-controlledcityofVolnovakha,some40kilometerssouthof
Russian-separatistterritory.
Thewoman,24-year-oldAnastasiaReva,isonherwaytoherparents,whostilllivein
VolnovakhaandwhoneverhaveleftthecityduringRussia'swaragainstUkraine.Reva
doesrespecttheactionsoftheUkrainianarmyinhernativecityof23,000people.
"ForsomeresidentshereitfeelslikeabunchofwestUkrainiansareoccupying
them,"shesaid.
VolnovakhamadeheadlinesonJan.13,whenRussianproxiesfiredmissilestowardsa
highwaycheckpoint,hittingacivilianbusandkilling12innocentpassengers.
Russian-separatistauthoritiesinitiallyadmittedtheattackthat"successfullyhitaUkrainian
blockpost,"butaftertheyfoundoutthatmissileshitacivilianbus,theywithdrewtheir
statementanddeniedanyinvolvement,sayingtheUkrainianarmywasbehindit.This"act
ofterror,"asboththeUkrainiangovernmentandtheRussian-separatistsdescribedit,
remainfreshinthememoriesoftheresidentsofVolnovakha.
"MymothergoesonceeverytwoweekstoDonetsktovisitmyyoungerbrotherwholives
there.WhenIheardthenewsofthebusattack,mybodyfeltparalyzed,fearingformy
parents.Itsimplymeantthatwhereveryouare,youareneversafe,"Revaexplained."Since
theattackmyparentsstartedtodisliketheUkrainianarmyevenmore.Manyinthistown
feelalienatedwithsomesoldiersfromwestUkraine,whomtheyjustcan'tsympathizewith.
Idon'thavestatistics,butmybetisthatthemajorityinthistownwouldpreferseparatiststo
'liberate'it."
TensionsremainasUkrainianarmysoldierspatrolthestreets.
Onesoldier,onlygivinghisfirstnameAnton,saysthatVolnovakhaisastrongholdforspies
andsaboteursthataidtheRussian-separatistsinDonetsk.
"We'reinthebiggesttownfromthesouthbeforeenteringtheenemy-heldterritories.The
enemyalsooperateshere,intheshadows,"Antonexplained
Heurgesoutsidersnottowalkoutsideinthenightbecauseofgangslinkedtothe
separatists.
"Youwon'tbethefirstthatwillbekidnappedfromwhowe'llneverhearbacksomething
again."
AntontalksaboutlastJunewhentheheadoftheVolnovakhatrafficpolice,knownbyhis
guerillaname"Zombie,"wasarrestedbecauseheactivelyaidedRussian-separatistforces,
givingoutinformationofUkrainianpositions,organizingdeliveryofweaponsand
coordinatingescaperoutesofsabotagegroups.
Donbashasalwaysbeenknownbyitsvarietyofcriminalgangs.Itseemsthatsomeof
thesegangshavechosensidefortheRussiancombinedseparatists.
OnMarch21,SecurityServiceofUkraineofficerVictorManzykwasmurderedin
Volnovakha.InDnepropetrovskadvancedweaponssuchasgrenadelaunchersandrocket
launcherswerefoundinanapartmentofoneofthesuspects.
Aftertheincident,InteriorMinisterArsenAvakovdisclosedthatatotalof11suspectswere
arrestedlinkedtodifferentparticipatingcriminalgangsintheDonetskarea.Fourofthem
weredirectlyinvolvedintheincident,makingthemthemainsuspects,accordingtoAvakov.
MayorSergeyDemchenko,anallyofex-PresidentViktorYanukovych,didn'twanttotalkto
theKyivPost.
ThedeputymayorofVolnovakha,IgorSeydamovich,waswillingtotalkthough.
"Allsuspectsarestillincustody,"hesaid.
Hedidn'twanttospeak,though,ofanydetailsabouttheprogressofacriminalcaseand
howmanywereinpre-trialdetention."That'samatterfortheprosecutor'sofficeandthe
SBU.Idon'tknowanythingaboutthat."
Seydamovichacknowledgedthatsupportfortheseparatistsisa"problem"inVolnovakha.
AntonclaimsthattheshootoutwaswelcomedbyagroupofVolnovakhaciviliansaswell.
"It'snosecretthatmanyherehavepro-Russianviews,andwishVolnovakhawouldbepart
oftheseparatist-territory.Civiliansthatheardaboutthemurdersawitasasignthatour,the
Ukrainian,controlwasshrinking,"heexplained.
Outsideasmallkiosk,amiddle-agedwomanputssomeofhergroceriesinherlarge
plasticbag.
FoodisscarceinVolnovakha,andthekiosksonthedesertedstreetsprofitfromthelargely
emptysupermarkets.
ValeriaBeletsky,54,complainstothecashierofthekiosk."Twomonthsagoyouwere
sellingmewaterfortwohryvnialess!"sheshoutedattheyoungwomanatthecounterafter
thoroughlyreadingherreceipt.
"DamntheUkrainians,"shemumbled.
BeletskywasbornandraisedinVolnovakha.
She'sseenRussia'swaragainstUkrainefromthestart,anddoesn'tsupporttheKyiv
government.
"They'rethieves!I'veseenbombs,grenades,deadpeople,andwhy?Becausethat
governmentinKyivdidn'trespecttheDonbaspeople'sdesiretonotbecomeEuropean,or
whatever!"shekeptshouting,becomingemotional."They'retalkingUkrainiantome.Idon't
understandthat.It'sasifabunchofstrangersoccupyushereinVolnovakha.Makethem
leave!"
AskingifBeletskywantstomoveandliveinDonetsk,oddly,sheanswersthequestionwith
afirm"no"withoutanyfurtherexplanation.
FortunatelyfortheUkrainiansoldiersinVolnovakha,there'speoplewhoactivelysupport
them.Oneofthemis21-year-oldVitaliyVolyanik,whowalksupfronttoagroupofsoldiers
thatstandsmokingacigaretteinfrontoftheVolnovakhatrainstation."GlorytoUkraine!"
Volyaniksaid,asthesoldiersrespond:"Heroesdon'tdie!"
Volyanik,anativefromDonetsk,explainshissupportforUkrainiansoldiers."They'rehereto
protectus.AnyonethatthinksthatUkraineisoccupyingVolnovakhashouldmovetothereal
occupiersthemselves.I'mfromDonetskandI'vefledmyhometown,becauseitwas
occupied.AndIthankthesebravesoldierswhoareheretoprotectme."
[returntoContents]
#28
WorldAffairs
www.worldaffairsjournal.org
October16,2015
ACautionaryNote:ReintegratingtheDonbas
ByAlexanderMotyl
ALEXANDERJ.MOTYLisprofessorofpoliticalscienceatRutgersUniversity-Newark
ThefightingintheDonbasmaybewindingdown,butUkraine'swarwithRussiawill
continueaslongasVladimirPutinbelievesthatUkrainemustbecomehissubject.
NowmorethaneverUkraine'ssurvivalasademocraticWesternstatedependsonthe
continuedstrengtheningofUkraine'smilitarycapabilityandtheaccelerationofreform.
AnostensiblypeacefulRussiaweddedtoimperialexpansionisnolessofamilitarythreat
toUkrainethananopenlyhostileRussiaweddedtoimperialexpansion.TheWestistoo
preoccupiedwithitsownproblemsandtooindifferenttoPutin'sdestructionofthepost-war
internationalordertosaveUkraine.
OnlyUkrainecanprotectitselffromfurtherRussianpredationsbyacquiringafirst-class
militaryabletodeterallbutthecraziestofRussianleaders.Meanwhile,afirst-classmilitary
isimpossiblewithoutastrongeconomy,whichinturnisimpossiblewithoutserious,
sustainedreform.
Asdifficultasintroducingreformhasbeen,it'sabouttogetmuchharder-fortworeasons.
First,theseemingendtofightingwillinclinesomeUkrainianpolicymakerstoconcludethat
theRussianthreathaswanedandthattheycanrelax.
Second,itnowlookslikeUkrainemayactuallyhavetoreintegratetheDonbasenclave
sometimeinthenearfuture.I'vebeenarguingadnauseamthatUkrainewouldbeinfinitely
betteroffbykeepingtheenclaveontheothersideofahighwall.Alas,myargumentmaybe
abouttobecomemoot,as-orif-Minsk-2isimplemented.
SignedinFebruary2015,theMinsk-2accordsproposeaseriesofsteps-acease-fire,an
exchangeofprisoners,aconstitutionalamendmentregardingtheDonbasenclave'sstatus,
Russianwithdrawal,localelections,andUkrainiancontroloftheenclave'sborderwith
Russia-thataresupposedtoendthewarandusherinpeace.Theproblemwiththedealis
thatUkraineexpectsMinsk-2toleadtoitsreassertionofsovereignty,thatRussiaexpectsit
toproduceUkrainiansubservience,andthattheseparatistsexpectittoreinforcetheirrule.
It'sthereforeperfectlypossiblethatMinsk-2willbreakdown,asallsidesrealizethereisno
waytofinessetheirincompatibledemands.Theresultcouldbeafrozenconflict,withthe
addedadvantagethatRussiamightbereluctanttorenewhostilitiesandincursanctions.
Werethattohappen,KyivshouldformallydeclarethattheDonbasenclaveisoccupied
territorythatfallsunderthepurviewoftheoccupyingpower,Russia.
IfPutin'sproxiesarelessstrategicallydaftthanheis,theymightpushforreintegrationand
therebyputUkraineinthehotseat.Asabsolutelyeveryoneknows,theenclave-andindeed
thewholeDonbas,eventhepartoccupiedbyUkrainianforces-hasbeenandstillisruledby
criminalclans,criminaloligarchs,criminalmafias,and-thelatesttwist-criminalseparatists
andcriminalwarlords.Mostofthepopulationisunremittinglyhostiletoeverythingthenew
Ukrainestandsfor.Theeconomyisinruins.
IfanyoneknowshowUkraineissupposedtoreintegratethiscancerousregionwithout
infectingitselfintheprocess,pleasetellme.
ThechallengewouldbeenormousevenifUkrainedefeatedtheRussianseparatistsand
occupiedtheterritory.AndUkrainehasnotdefeatedtherebels.Norwilliteveroccupythe
enclaveandimposeitswillwithoutreignitingthewar.
Instead,Ukrainewillhavetoreintegrateanunreconstructedandunreconstructableregion.
That'swhatMinsk-2mandates.Andthat'sbeenthedeclaredgoaloftheUkrainianpolitical
establishment.
Astheysay,becarefulwhatyouwishfor.Itmaycometrue.
There'sonlyonewayforapotentiallyreintegratedDonbasenclavetowreakminimal
damageonUkraine.
Kyivshouldquarantinetheterritoryanditsthugsbygivingit,andthem,almostcomplete
sovereigntywithinaconfederalrelationshipwithUkraine.
NeitherKyivnortheenclavewouldinterfereineachother'sinternalorexternalpolitical
affairs.Bothsideswouldpursuetheirowneconomicpolicies,refrainfromsubsidizingeach
other,keepallthetaxestheycollect,andpursuetradewithwhomevertheydesire.Each
sidewouldberesponsibleforlawandorder,speakwhicheverlanguageitdesires,
rememberwhatitwantstoremember,andhonorwhomeveritwantstohonor.Other
issueswouldbestickier(Wouldtherebeonearmyortwo?Wouldtheenclavepursueits
ownforeignpolicy?Wouldtherebeonepresidentortwo?),butnotimmunetocreative
solutions.
Russiaanditsseparatistthugs-alongwithFrance,Germany,andtheUnitedStates-would
behard-pressedtosaynyettosuchadeal,whileKyivandUkraine'shotheadscouldclaim
victoryanddeclarethatUkraineiswholeagain.
Doconfederationsworkinthemediumtolongterm?Rarely,unless,asinthecaseofthe
Swiss,therearespecialcircumstancesthatovercomethecentrifugalforcesbuiltinto
them.
IftheUkrainianconfederationworks,great.Ukraineproperwillreform,whiletheenclave
goestothehellofitschoice.Iftheconfederationdoesn'tworkandbothsidesagreetogo
theirownway-perhapsliketheCzechsandtheSlovaks-what'snottolike?
[returntoContents]
#29
MoscowTimes
October19,2015
What'sNextforRussiaandUkraine?
ByJean-MarieGuehenno
Jean-MarieGuehennoispresidentandCEOoftheInternationalCrisisGroup.
Themostacutephaseofthe18-month-oldUkrainewarisover,atleastfornow.Butnothing
issettledyet.
AfterspendingaweekinKievandMoscowwithadelegationfromtheInternationalCrisis
Group,itisclearthatRussiaisslidingdeeperintoeconomiccrisisandpoliticaluncertainty.
Ukraine,meanwhile,hasresolvednoneoftheissuesthatledtoitscrisisboilingoverinto
armedconflict.
Russia'sinterventionineasternUkrainehasbeenadisappointmenttoMoscow.The
Ukrainianarmyhasfoughtbetterthanexpected,andtheWesthasbeenmoreunitedin
imposingsanctionsthananticipated.
PresidentVladimirPutinnowseemstobedownplayinganyseparatistprojectforeastern
Ukraine.HestressessupportfortheFebruary2015Minsktalks,isreininginhiseastern
protegesandhasabandonedtheNovorossiaprojectthatwouldhavecreatedaterritorial
continuumallthewaytotheself-proclaimedrepublicofTransdnestr.ThepeopleofDonetsk
andLuhanskmaydisliketheauthoritiesinKiev,butthemajoritydoesnotembraceRussia,
andsustainingeasternUkraineisascostlyapropositionforRussiaasitwouldbefor
anyoneelse.
Noneofthefundamentalissuesthatledtoawarthathaskilledwellover8,000peoplehave
beenresolved.Twelvemonthsofhalf-heartedeffortstoreformUkrainehavenotreversed
25yearsofcorruption.ThereisanadmirablegenerationofyoungUkrainiansenergetically
committedtoEuropeanvalues,shamingcontemporariesinWesternEuropewhotaketheir
democraticinheritanceforgranted,butthejudiciaryremainssubservienttopowerand
money,thereisonlyakernelofreformedpoliceandoligarchsstillruletheroost.Kiev's
disregardforitscitizensintherebel-occupiedzonesintheeastwillfurthercomplicateany
futurereintegration.
Aboveall,Ukraine'sdysfunctionalstatemakesitaneasytargetformeddlingand
manipulation.KievfearsthatRussiawillnotabandonitspressure,butwillsimplyshiftfrom
themilitarytothepolitical-fundingandpromotingtraditionallypro-Russianpoliticianskeen
tocapitalizeonpublicdismayatrisingpricesanddisillusionwiththeirleaders.
InRussia,thecrisisisnolesssevere.ItstartedbeforethewarinUkraine,andbeforethe
collapseofoilpricesandtheruble.Thenon-diversificationoftheeconomyanddeep
demographicdecline-Russiahasthelowestlifeexpectancyofalldevelopedcountries-
havetakenaserioustoll.Russianeedsalongperiodoffargreatereconomicgrowthto
catchupwithWesternEurope.Rightnowgrowthisnegative,withdevastatingimpacton
thebudget:pensionswillnotmatchinflation,andtensofmillionsofRussiansfacea
significantreductionoftheirincome.
Thebasiccontractofthelastfewyears-anauthoritarianregimeinreturnforamodest
improvementinbasiclivingconditions-isbeingreplacedbyanewoneinwhichnational
pridesubstitutesformaterialsatisfactions.
Statepropaganda,whichdominatesthemedia,isbacktoStalinisttropes:aRussia
surroundedbyenemies,theWestfomentingrevolutionsofallcolors,andIslamistsaspart
ofawideWesternconspiracyagainstRussia,whichhasthebiggestMuslimpopulationin
Europe.
Moscow'spolicyofbombingIslamistsinSyriaandsupportingSyrianPresidentBashar
Assadthusaddresseswhatitseesasarealthreattoitsdomesticinterests,andatthe
sametimesendsamessageofresolvetoWesternpowers.Inshort,Russiahasgone
beyonddissatisfactionwiththestatusquotobecomearevisionistcountry.
Atthispointwheretrustbetweenthetwosidesisclosetozero,sharedpointsofreference
andcommonprojectsarevitaltoensurechangesoccurlegitimately,withoutanyrenewed
useofforce.AndthereismuchtheWestcanbegintodotostabilizetheconflict.
First,makefinancialsupporttoUkraine,onrigorousconditions,amuchgreaterpriority.The
painfulreformsthatUkraineneedstoconductwillbelesspainfulifthereismorefinancial
supportfromtheEU.
Second,prioritizejustice,ruleoflaw,andanti-corruptionintechnicalsupporttoUkraine.
Third,maintainaunitedfrontonsanctionssolongastheMinskagreementisnotfully
implemented.
Fourth,explorewithRussiaareasinwhichsomecommonworkcouldbedone.Thiscould
bejudiciousEUengagementwiththeRussia-dominatedEurasianUnion,orthenecessary
"de-conflicting"ofmilitaryoperationsovertheskiesofSyria,orexplorationofthecontours
ofaSyriansettlement,inwhichRussia,despiteitscurrentdefiance,willinevitablyplaya
part.
TheWestshouldbetoughonbothitsalliesandadversaries.SupportforUkraineshould
onlybesustainedifKievpushesthroughreforms,particularlyagainsthighlevelcorruption,
asitspeopledemand.And,whileengagementwiththeKremlinisimperative,theWest
shouldstressthatatruedialogueoncrucialinternationalissuescanonlybepossibleonce
MoscowactsontheMinskpeaceplanandpullsoutofeasternUkraine.
[returntoContents]
#30
RussiaDirect
www.russia-direct.org
October16,2015
8reasonswhytheDutchgottheMH17reportincomplete
ThereportpublishedbytheDutchSafetyBoardontheBoeing777MalaysiaAirlines
disastercannotbedefinitivebecauseitlargelyignoresthefindingsofRussianexperts.
ByVladimirEvseev
Dr.VladimirEvseevisDirectoratCenterforSocialandPoliticalStudies.Hehasmilitary
experiencefortwentyyears,hisresearchinterestsincluderegionalaspectsofthe
internationalsecurity,nuclearnon-proliferationandballisticmissiledefense.
OnOct.13,theDutchSafetyBoardpresenteditsfinalreportonthedowningoftheBoeing
777MalaysiaAirlinespassengerplane(FlightMH17)overtheDonbasregiononJuly17last
year.Thereportwaspresentedbytheheadoftheinvestigation,TibbeYaustra,attheGilze-
RijenmilitarybaseintheNetherlands.
OneofthemaincausesofthedisasterwasidentifiedasUkraine'sfailuretocloseits
airspacetopassengerplanes,despitethehostilitiesintheDonbasregioninvolvingsurface-
to-airmissiles(SAMs).Russianexpertsagreewiththatfinding,butnotethatbothsidesin
theconflictemployedairdefensesystems.
SomeoftheblameforwhathappenedwasapportionedtoMalaysianAirlines,whichwas
"awareofthepotentialrisksofflyingovertheconflictzone."Whenthetragedyoccurred,
therewerethreepassengerplanesintheskyabovethehotspot.Thatfactcannotbe
arguedwith,butforeignairlineshadnoinformationaboutwhataltitudewasdeemedsafe.
SAMsgenerallydonotgohigherthan2.2miles(3.5km)iffiredfromaportableairdefense
system,soanaltitudeof6.2miles(10km)isconsideredsafeforcivilaviation(whichis
why,forexample,passengeraircraftcontinuedtoflyoverAfghanistanduringthearmed
conflictthere).ButKievknewthatmorepowerfulanti-aircraftmissileshadbeendeployedin
theconflictzone,primarilyitsown,butdidnotinformforeignairlinesinadvance.
Whoistoblame?
Thereisawidedivergenceofopiniononthatquestion.Forexample,theinternational
commissionsetuptoinvestigatetheaccident(whichforsomereasonexcludednotonly
Russia,butalsotheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization)reachedtheconclusionthat
theBoeing777hadbeenhitbyaRussian-madeBUKmissilefiredfromthesettlementof
Snezhnoe,whichatthattimewaspartofthemilitia-controlledDonetskPeople'sRepublic
(DPR).
Accordingtotheinvestigators,ananti-aircraftmissilestruckthecockpitontheleftside,
whichcausedtheheadoftheplanetoseparatefromthefuselage,killingallpassengers
andcrewalmostinstantaneously.Itomitsthefactthatthistypeofmissiletargetsthe
middleoftheaircrafttoensureannihilation.Thecockpitisusuallyhitbypilotsfiringfrom
aircraftcannons.
AdifferentviewisheldbyRussianexperts.Firstofall,theynotedthattheinternational
commissiondidnotprovideevidencethatthebodyoftheplanedisplayedthecharacteristic
markofaBUKmissile(abutterfly-shapedhole).Andoneofthephotographssubmittedby
thecommissiondepictspartofaBUKsystemthatcouldnothaveremainedwhollyintact
onbeingfired.
Second,thereportonMH17wassubmittedtotheRussiansideasafaitaccompli,which
meantitcouldnotbeamended.Moreover,itleavesoutmostofthecommentspreviously
madebyRussianexperts.
Third,theDutchauthoritiesdidnotpermitRussianexpertstoinspectthecrashsite.Evena
monthafterthedisaster,notallthebodieshadbeenremoved(shrapnelwoundscouldhave
beenvitalcluesfortheinternationalinvestigation).Andcontrarytoestablishedpractice,a
substantialpartofthewreckagewasleftwhereitfell,whichhamperstheconductofafull-
scalestudy.
Fourth,therewasnothoroughanalysisoftheinstructionsoftheUkrainianairtraffic
controllerswho"led"theMalaysianplaneintotheconflictzoneandtheninexplicablyaltered
itsflightlevel.
RecalltheincidentonMarch17,1994,whenaC-130militarytransportaircraftcarrying
IranianembassypersonnelwasshotdownoverNagorno-Karabakhnearthetownof
Stepanakert,killingall19passengers,including9children,andthecrewof13.Accordingto
sources,theAzerbaijaniairtrafficcontrollersintentionallydivertedtheaircraftbyabout100
km(62miles)intothecombatzone,whereitwasshotdownbyanArmenianSAM.
Fifth,thecommission'sreportdidnotconsiderthepossibilitythatFlightMH17was
interceptedbyaUkrainianjet,eventhoughtherewasoneintheimmediatevicinity.Itwould
havebeencapableofbothkillingthecrewwithaircraftcannonand"backingup"theair
defensesystem(usuallytwoSAMsarelaunchedsimultaneouslyincaseoneisofftargetin
thisinstanceanair-to-airmissilecouldhavebeenthereserveoption).
Sixth,onJuly2,2015,theAlmaz-Anteyjointstock-company,themanufactureroftheBUK
system,submitteddocumentstotheinternationalcommissiononthefirstphaseofafull-
scalestudyusingascalemodelofaBoeing777.
Itshowedthattheaircraftcouldhavebeenshotdownbya9M38Manti-aircraftmissile,
whichisnolongerinservicewiththeRussianArmedForces.However,thecommission
ignoredthedocuments.
Thesecondphaseoftheexperiment,heldonOct.7,involvedadecommissionedIL-86
plane.ItwasconfirmedthattheMalaysianBoeing777wasshotdownfromanarea
controlledatthetimebytheUkrainianArmy-2.2miles(3.5km)southofthevillageof
Zaroschenskoe.HaditbeenfiredfromSnezhnoe(asstatedbytheinternational
commission),nosubmunitioncouldhaveenteredtheplane'sengine,whichisinfactwhat
happened.
Seventh,theUnitedStatesdidnotprovidetheinternationalcommissionwithdatafrom
satellitesthatwereabovethecombatzoneatthetimeoftheincident.
Eighth,therewasnoinvestigationofUkraine'sairdefensesystems,including,forinstance,
theirlocationatthetimeoftheincidentandaphysicalinventoryoftheiranti-aircraft
missiles.
WillRussiaandtheWestagreeonthecausesofthecrash?
Forthereasonsoutlinedabove,theDutchSafetyBoardreportmaynotbeconclusive.It
doesnottakeintoaccountthetotalityoftheavailabledata,andappearssubjectiveand
politicallymotivated.The"meticulous"investigationdidnottake15months-thattimeframe
wasmerelyadelayingtacticwhenconclusiveevidenceaboutRussianinvolvementcould
notbeverified.
Unfortunately,whenitcomestoairlinedisasters,Ukrainehasnotbeenentirelyblameless.
InOctober2001aRussianTu-154passengeraircraftwashitbyaUkrainianS-200anti-
aircraftmissileovertheBlackSea,whichhadbeenlaunchedduringamilitaryexercisein
Crimea.Therewerenosurvivorsamongthe66passengersand12crewmembers.It
cannotberuledoutthatsomethingsimilarmayhavehappenedintheskiesaboveDonbas.
[returntoContents]
#31
RussiaDirect
October16,2015
TheMalaysianBoeingsagaisfarfromover
The"final"MH17reportshowsthatthereisstillalongwaytogoindeterminingwhat
actuallyhappenedinUkraine.
ByIvanTsvetkov
IvanTsvetkovisAssociateProfessorofAmericanStudies,InternationalRelations
Department,St.PetersburgStateUniversity.Heisanexpertinthefieldofhistoricalscience
andcontemporaryU.S.policyandU.S.-Russianrelations.Since2003,hehasbeenthe
authorandadministratoroftheeducationalwebsite"HistoryoftheUnitedStates:Materials
forthecourse"(http://ushistory.ru)
Thelong-awaitedfinalreportoftheDutchSafetyBoardintotheMH17disasterrevealed
answerstomanyimportantquestions.Afterstudyingthepublishedmaterials,noone,for
instance,islikelytocontinuetopromotetheair-to-airmissiletheory.
Butthereportalsoshowsthatthefinalendofthistragedyisstillalongwayoff.Evenifthe
"truth"canonedaybeestablished,doubtswilllingerallthesame.
Anever-endingstory
TheinternationalandpoliticalscaleofMH17meansthatitcanneverbefiledaway,no
matterhowmany"final"reportsareproduced.Itsimpactoninternationalrelationsalready
hasbeenfarmoreseriousthanallpreviousincidentsofciviliandeathsinvolvingmilitary
missiles.
Thedebatesurroundingtheinvestigationofthetragedyhaslongmovedonfromsimple
finger-pointing.Atstakearetheveryfoundationsoftheexistingworldorder.Optionsto
circumventRussia'svetoontheUNSecurityCouncilandtograntnewpowerstothe
InternationalCourtofJusticeareonthetable.
AccordingtotheDutchSafetyBoard,thereisstillnoanswertothekeyquestionofthe
preciselocationoftheBUKlaunchsite,whichmeansthatafurther"criminal"investigation
isneeded.
Nodoubtatthisstagethetopicwillbecomeevenmoresensitiveandrequirenotonlyexpert
butalso"strong-willed"politicaldecisions.Ifthepoliticalwillisthereonallsides,itwillnot
betoodifficulttoexplorethesuspectedregionsandgatherthenecessaryevidence.
Expertsassertthateveninthewar-scorchedearthofDonbassoilsamplescouldhelp
locatethelaunchsite.Butwillforensicexpertsbeallowedtotakethem?
TheRussianviewofMH17
OnthesamedayastheDutchSafetyBoardpublisheditsreport,theAlmaz-Anteyjoint
stock-company,whichmanufacturestheBUKmissilesystem,announcedtheresultsofa
repeatexperimenttorecreatetheconditionsofthecatastrophe.
IncontrasttotheirDutchcolleagues,Russianexpertsconsideredtheavailabledatatobe
sufficienttodeterminethelaunchsitewithreasonableaccuracy.Usingmathematical
modelingtechniques,theypinpointedasmallareathatinJuly2014wasunderthecontrol
oftheUkrainianArmy.
Moreover,basedonthedamagetothehullofthedownedBoeing(inparticular,theshapeof
theentryholes),Almaz-Antey'steamofexpertsconcludedthatthemissilethatdestroyed
theplanewaslongagodecommissionedbytheRussianArmedForces(butoddlyenough
isstillinusewiththeUkrainianmilitary).
ItwasarepeatofwhathashappenedoncountlessoccasionssinceJuly2014:Inresponse
tothedisclosureofevidencepointingtoRussia'sguilt,theRussiansideproducesitsown
evidencethatshiftstheblameontoUkraine.
Somehavegrownutterlywearyofthistug-of-war,yetmanyparticipantsinthedebatein
Russiacontinuetobelievethatthecountryisbeingtriedinabsentia,withglobalpublic
opinionasthepresidingjudge.
Thatbeingthecase,thefinalverdictwilldependonthepersuasivenessoftheparties'
arguments.Letthetrialcontinueforaslongasnecessary,sinceeveryoneisinterestedin
thesamething-establishingthetruthandpunishingtheguilty.
What'swrongwiththeRussianversionoftheMH17story
Butthelogicofatrialinwhichthejudgeispublicopiniondiffersfromtraditionalcases,even
thoseinvolvingjuries.ItisevidentthattheMH17disasterhascausedgreatdamageto
Russia'sinternationalreputationalready.
Anditwillcontinuetoinflictdamageuntiltheheadlinesdisappearfromthepagesofthe
world'snewspapers.Itisnottheverdict,butthetrialthatistherealpenalty.Butitseems
thatmuchoftheRussianpoliticaleliteandexpertcommunitywouldprefertoflatlyreject
anyaccusations.
Whatmakespeoplerememberonetragedyandquicklyforgetanother?Whyinsome
militaryconflictsaremassciviliancasualtieswrittenoffascollateraldamage,andthe
attentionofinternationalobserversdivertedelsewhere,whileothertragedies,suchas
MH17,remainonthepoliticalagendaforyearsonend?
FormanyRussianexpertstoday,theanswertothisquestionisobvious:Russophobia.
HostileforcesintheWesthaveseizedtheopportunitytohumiliateRussiaandonceagain
presentthecountryinahighlyunfavorablelight.
Theonlywaytoresist,astheyseeit,istopersistentlydefendtheirpositionbyproviding
persuasiveevidencethatRussiaisbeingslanderedandattackedbyfoesonallsides.
Butitturnsoutinpracticethateachnew"irrefutable"argumentputforwardbyself-
righteousandpoliticallymotivatedRussianexpertsonlyprolongstheproceedings,which
havelongsinceacquiredthetraitsofapoliticalspectacle.
IfoneseriouslyconsidersRussia'snationalinterestsintheMH17case,itishardtoavoid
theconclusionthatchiefamongthemshouldnotbetoprovethecountry'sinnocence,but
tobringtheprocesstoanendwhatevertheresult.
ThereisnodoubtthatifonJuly17,2014,thepro-RussianseparatistsineasternUkraine
hadacknowledgedthattheyhadmistakenlyshotdownflightMH17,believingittobea
Ukrainianmilitarytransporter,Russiawouldhavebeensparedoneofworstepisodesof
internationalcondemnationinitshistory.
Ofcourse,Russia'sreputationwouldhavesufferedanyway-butwhoin2015wouldstillbe
debatingtheissueanddreamingupwaysofbypassingRussia'sUNSecurityCouncilveto?
Butitistoolatetostartback-pedalingnow.Thewarofwordshastobewagedtothebitter
end,andtogaintheupperhanditseemsthatlesstalkaboutentryholesandamore
resoluteandevenmoreadventuresomeforeignpolicyisrequired.
TheKremlinseemstobecountingonitsoperationinSyriatoresolveMH17.
[returntoContents]
#32
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
October18,2015
MH17FinalreportisNotaFinalReportIt'sJustaLimitedHangout
Ittellsasmuchofthetruthasithasto.Butnomore.
ByPatrickArmstrong
PatrickArmstrongreceivedaPhDfromKingsCollege,UniversityofLondon,Englandin
1976andretiredin2008after30yearsasananalystfortheCanadiangovernment,
specializinginfirsttheUSSRandthenRussia.HewasaPoliticalCounselorinthe
CanadianEmbassyinMoscowfrom1993to1996.Hehasbeenafrequentspeakeratthe
WiltonParkconferencesintheUK.
[Linksherehttp://russia-insider.com/en/mh17-final-report-not-final-report-its-just-limited-
hangout/ri10575]
"Limitedhangout"isspyjargonforapartialadmissionofthetruthtoattempttocontrolthe
exposureofaclandestineoperation.Thehopeisthatthepartialtruthwillsatisfythe
questionersandtheywilllooknofurther.Thephrasecameintopopularawarenessduring
theWatergatescandalin1973asthecoverstoryunravelled.TheDutchSafetyBoard
reportontheMH17disasterisanexample.It'sapartialstatement:somethingvery
importantisleftoutbutitisnotcompletelyleftoutbecausetheremaybealaterneedfor
"reconsideration".
ThesourcesandabbreviationsIusearebelow.
-RussianMoDbriefingJuly2014(MoD)(English)
-DutchSafetyBoardFinalReportOctober2015Video(DSBV)Text(DSBT)
-Almaz-AnteyFirstReportJune2015(AA1)(Video)(Almaz-Anteyisthemanufacturerof
theBukfamilyofSAMsystemswhichhasbeeninserviceinmanycountriessince1979.
Overtheyears,asiscommonwithevolutionarySovietandRussianweaponssystems,
therehavebeenseveraldifferentrocketsandwarheaddesigns.)
-Almaz-AnteySecondReportOctober2015(AA2)(SlideshowinEnglish)
InAugustIpublishedapieceatRInamed"QuestionsaRealMH17ReportWouldAnswer".
TheDSBreportfailsmytestbutitfailsitinaninterestingway:inalimitedhangoutway,in
fact.Isaidtherewerefourvitalpointsthatmustbeaddressed:
1.The"blackboxes"willtelluswhereMH17waswhenitwashit,whatdirectionitwas
goingin,whatspeeditwastravelling.
2.Analysisofthedamagepatternofthewreckagewillshowwherethemissilewaswhen
itdetonated.
3.Backtrackingfromthatpointwillshowfromwhereitwaslaunched.
4.Lethalfragmentswillshowwhatweaponhitit.
Thereportdealswith1satisfactorily,thereisaquestionabout4butitisinitsanswerto
numbers2and3thatweseethelimitedhangout.
ThereportwasdeliveredbyitsChairman,TjibbeJoustra,[quondamtheNetherlands'
NationalAntiterrorismCoordinator-isthatsignificant?Youdecide,DearReader-and
ChairmanoftheDSBsinceFebruary2011]whostatedthatitwasnottheDSB'sjobto
assignblame.TheDSB'sconclusionwasthatMH17wasbroughtdownbytheexplosionof
9N314Mwarheadascarriedon9M38seriesBuksurface-to-airmissile(SAM)(DSBT-9)
otherscenarioswereconsidered,analysedandexcluded.Itoffersanareafromwhichit
believesthemissilewaslaunched.
TheFlightDataRecorder(both"blackboxes"wereingoodshape)showedMH17flyingat
33,000ftheading115at293kts(542kph).Therecordingstoppedat13.20:03UTCat
48.12715N38.52630538E(DSBT-47).
IbeginwithmyprincipalconclusionthattheDSBreportisa"limitedhangout".
Byignoringthedamagetotheportwingandportengine,theBoardwasabletoshiftthe
approachrouteofthemissileawayfromKiev-heldterritorysouthofMH17'sroutetorebel-
heldterritoryinthesouth-east.
Theimportanceofleavingoutthewingandengine
TheDutchSafetyBoarddidnottakeintoaccountthedamagetotheportwingandtheport
engine(seebelow).Whileitdidprovideaphotoofthedamagedportengineintakeringat
DSBT-50,thereisnootherdiscussionofdamagetotheengineandIbelievethatthe
inclusionofthephotoprovidestheDSBwithan"out"shouldtherebeaneedforalater
"reconsideration"oftheevidence.Tosummarise(seebelow):theDSBestablishedapoint
atwhichthedetonationoccurredtheDSBunderstoodtheblastpatternofthewarhead
(DSBT-130butseeabetterrepresentationatAA2-35).Butitignoredthefactthatthe
existenceofdamagetotheportwingandportengineprovesthatthemissilehadtohave
comefromthesideofMH17andnotfrominfrontofit.Thatisthekeypoint:everythingup
tothatpointintheanalysisofthedestructionofMH17(leavingasidetherathersmall
numberof"bow-ties"-seebelow)iscloselyreasoned.Thesleightofhandoccurswhen
thewingandengineareforgotten.Concentratingonlyonthedamagetothecockpitallows
thepathofthemissiletobetwistedfromthesouthtothesouth-westasisrequiredbythe
"rebelsdidittheory".Alaunchpointfromthesouthrulesthatpossibilityout.
ThisisillustratedatAA2-21.BothAlmaz-Anteyreportscalculatedthefiringpointasbeing
nearZaroshchenskoyewhiletheDSBcalculatesitasbeingnearSnezhnoye.AA2-21
showsadamagecomparison:aBukfiredfromZaroshchenskoyedamagestheportwing
andportengine,aBukfiredfromSnezhnoyedoesnot.Thedamagetothecockpitissimilar
ineachscenario.
BecausethedamagetotheportwingandportenginewasignoredbytheDSBreport,they
wereabletomaketheapproachlineofthemissileclosertothedirectionMH17was
heading,whichallowedthemtocalculatethelaunchpointsoastoincluderebel-held
territory.Hadtheyincludedtheportwingandportenginedamage,theywouldhavebeen
forcedtoacceptalaunchpointfarthersouthintoKiev-heldterritory.
Inshort,theytoldasmuchtruthastheycouldwithoutcompromisingtherequiredanswer.A
"limitedhangout"indeed.
Buttherearesomeother-lesssignificant,tobesure-pointsthatshouldbeconsidered.
MissingRadarData
Thefirstpointworthyofattentionistheradardataor,rather,itsabsence.Wearetoldthat
"TheUkrainiancivilprimaryradarstationsintheareawerenotfunctioningatthetimeofthe
crashduetoscheduledmaintenance.Themilitaryprimaryradarstationswerealsonot
operational.TheUkrainianMinistryofDefencestatedthatthissystemwasnotoperational,
becausetherewerenoUkrainianmilitaryaircraftinthesectorthroughwhichflightMH17
flew"(DSBT-38).NATOhadanAWACSaircraftintheairbutthatsaidMH17wasoutofits
range(DSBT-44).ThusonlylimitedradarinformationwasavailablefromUkraineand
nothingfromNATO.
Thisisnotbelievable.Ignoringthe"scheduledmaintenance"stuff,theUkrainianMinistryof
Defencestatementthattherewerenomilitaryaircraftintheareaiscontradictedwhen
DSBT-185informsusthatKievclaimedthatamilitaryaircraftwasfiredatintheDonetsk
areaonthatveryday.Thatislessthan40kmsawayfromMH17.AstoNATO,itisabsurd
tothinkthatNATOhadanAWACSaircraftupthatwasnotlookingatthefightingarea.The
DSBacceptsthesestatementswithoutcomment.
Russiaalsoprovidedlimitedradarinformationbecause,itsaid,asthecrashoccurred
outsideofRussianterritory,itdidnotrecordtheprimarydata(DSBT-42).Thereport
spendssometimechidingRussiaforthis.
FlightPath
AnotherofthepointsthatImadeinmyRIpiecewasthechangeintheflightpathas
recordedintheFlightAwarewebsite.NomentionwhatsoeverismadeofthatintheDSB
report.Ididnotice,however,thattheflightplanasshownatDSBT-212showsaslightturn
totheleftattheGermany-PolandborderandaslightturntotherightattheKazakhstan-
Turkmenistanborder.Ifweremovethisslightdeviation,wehaveastraightlineflightpath
thatgoesovertheSeaofAzovastheearlierroutesdidbeforetheywerechangedon
FlightAware.
IstillbelievethatthisisapointthathasbeeninsufficientlydiscussedandIremindreaders
ofthescreenshotstakenoftheFlightAwaretracksshowingpreviousrouteswellsouthof
thetracktakenthatdaybyMH17shownhereandhere.Iremembernoticingthechangeat
thetimeandthinkingthattheflightpathof17Julywasthefirstquestionthathadtobe
answered.Again,theDSBmakesnomentionofanyotherroutestakenbythisdailyflight.
Fighterplanes
Astothefighterplanestorytheflatstatementismadethattherearenoaircraftshownon
theUkrainianradartracksexceptMH17andtwoothercommercialflights(DSBT-114).No
mentionwhatsoeverismadeoftheRussianpresentation(MoD9thillustration)thatshowed
afighterplaneclosetoMH17.(Butnotethecarefulstatementthatthereisnothingonthe
Ukrainianradartracks.PerhapstheDSBisleavingspaceforalater"reconsideration".)The
reportrulesoutcannonfirebecause1)therearetoomanyholesinthefuselagefora
limitednumberofcannonrounds2)thepresenceof"bow-tie"fragments(seebelow)3)
therewerenomilitaryaircraftinthearea(DSBT-126).ItreturnstotheissueatDSB-131
whereitarguesthatallpenetrationsofMH17camefromasinglepoint.
PersonallyIdonotfindthisveryconvincingandIdonotbelievethatthepresenceofa
fighteraswellasaSAMisexcluded,althoughitisclearthattheSAMwassufficienttobring
theplanedownandkillthecockpitcrew.ButtheDSBoughttohavesaidsomethingabout
theRussianstatementthattherewasafighterplanenearby.Andcertainlytherearemany
holesinthewreckagethatlookasiftheymaybecausedbycannonfire.Andthenthereare
thenumerousclaimedeyewitnessstatementsoffightersinthearea.Allthisshouldhave
beendiscussedand,ifrejected,rejectedwithseriousargumentsandevidence.
Thereconstructionandthedamage
Wenowcometoananalysisofthereconstructedaircraft.Or-andthisisapointofgreat
significance-thepartlyreconstructedaircraft.DSBVgivesagoodviewofthe
reconstructionat22:44.Weseethatthecockpitandpartofthelowerforwardpassenger
sectionisallthathasbeenconstructed.Missingaretheportwingandportengine.Thisis
thekeytothelimitedhangout.
DSBT-55beginsalongsectiondetailingwhatpartswererecoveredandfromwherethey
wererecovered.Everythingisaccountedforexcept-animportantexception-missileparts
consistentwithanBuk9M38missile(DSBT-80).Nolocationisgivenforthemandthereis
nochainofcustodygiven.Arethesethepartsreportedtohavebeenfoundonlyaslateas
August2015?Wearemerelyinformedtheywerefound"inthewreckagearea".
PhotographsappearatDSBT-82.
AlongsectionanalysesthesoundsfromtheCockpitVoiceRecorderandestablishesa
sourceoutsidethetheupperportsideofthecockpit(DSBT-112)Thisisassumedtobethe
locationofthecentreoftheexplosion.Thislocationisverifiedbyanalysingtheholes
(DSBT-124).Allthisisperfectlyconvincing.
About75fragmentswerefoundinthehumanremains.Someofthesearearguedtohave
comefromoutsidethroughtheaircraftskinsomephotosatDSBT-89.Twoofthese
(three?)areclaimedtobe"bow-tie"shaped(DSBT-92).Thesetwo-orisitthreeorfour?-
"bow-tie"shapedfragmentsareconclusiveasfarastheDSBisconcerned:theirassertion
thatitwasaBukwarheadtype9N314Mcompletelydependsonthesetwoorthreeorfour
fragments.JohnHelmerhasarguedthatthereisasuspiciousamountofsecrecyand
nationalsecurityaboutthesevitalpieces.
ThisisapointofcontentionwithAlmaz-Antey'sreportswhichmaintainthattheBukused
didnothavea"bow-tie"warhead.AA2,whichusedastatictestofaBukwith"bow-tie"
(Almaz-Anteycallsthem"I-beam")shapedparticlesinitswarhead,arguesthatthe
resultingdestructionpatternshowsbow-tie/I-beamshapedholes(AA2-27)(whichDSBT
doesnot)andmanymorebow-tie/I-beamfragments-therearemorethan2000inthat
particularwarheaddesign-inthewreckagethantwoorfour.FromthisAlmaz-Antey
concludesthatthewarheadusedwasnotthe9N314M(whichhasbow-ties/I-beams)but
theB9N314whichdoesnot.TheirpointisthatthisisthetypeofBukinUkrainianservice
butnolongerinRussianservice.
Launchpointofthemissile.
DSBT-144givestheestimatedlaunchpointfortheBuk.Itchoosesaratherlargeareato
theeastofTorezmore-or-lessinfrontofMH17.Inthatareaisasmalleroneitclaimsto
havebeenprovidedbyAlmaz-AnteyandastillsmalleroneprovidedbytheKievauthorities.
Thereforeamissilefiredfromanyofthesepositionswouldhavebeenapproximatelyhead-
ontoMH17(fromdirectlyhead-ontoabout30).ThisisonethingtowhichIwillreturn,butI
mustsayIdonotunderstandwhattheDSBistalkingaboutwhenitincludesanAlmaz-
Anteyestimateofthelaunchpointinthisarea:neitherAlmaz-Anteypresentationgivesan
origininthatarea.Aswesawabove,Almaz-Anteygivesanestimatedfiringpointthatwould
placethemissilelaunchpointmuchmoretotherightofMH17-atroughly60fromits
course.Whichbringsusbacktothekeypoint:ignoringthedamagetotheportwingand
portengineallowstheDSBtomakethemissiletrackmoretothefrontofMH17'scourse.
Suchanoriginisimpossibleifthedamagetothewingandenginearetakenintoaccount.
TheDSBreportelidestheissuealtogetherbutdoesprovidean"out"byshowingaphotoof
theenginedamage.
Conclusion
Thereareanumberofquestionsthatcanberaisedaboutthereport:thelackofprimary
radardatafromUkraineandNATOisjustnotbelievableandtheauthorsshouldnothave
blandlyacceptedit:therewereUkrainianfightersintheairandnooneshouldpossibly
believethatNATOassetsweren'twatchingthearea.
ThereportairilyignorestheRussianMoDclaimofafighterplanenearMH17(although
leavesitselfanoutbysayingtheUkrainiandatashowednothing).
The"flightroutequestion"iscompletelyunaddressed.
Toomuchhangsontheverysmallnumberofbow-tie/I-beampieces.
Bythemainthingisthat,becauseithasignoredthedamagetotheportwingandport
engine(althoughleavingaphotoofthelatterinthereportsoastoprovideanout),itisable
toshifttheapproachlineofthemissileawayfromKiev-heldterritorytothesouthofMH17's
routetorebel-heldterritoryinthesouth-east.
Sowhathappened?
IagreethatwewillprobablynotknowuntiltheregimeinKievcollapsesorsomeEdward
Snowdenrevealssomething.(Although,asitnowappearsthattheKievregimeisactually
questioningtheofficial"heavenlyhundred"sniperstory,discussedherebyGordonHahn,
whocansaywhat'snext?).
Iwouldsuggestthefollowingpossibilities.
TheKievforcesdeployedBuksbecausetheyhadconvincedthemselvesthatRussian
aircraftwereshootingtheiraircraftdown(DSBT-183).
-TheythoughttheyhadatargetandfiredandhitMH17byaccident,
-Or,whilepractisingtheyshotitdownbyaccident.
-(ItshouldberecalledthatUkrainianairdefenceforcesshotdownapassengeraircraft
in2001andliedaboutituntiltheycouldlienomore.)
ItwasshotdownonpurposesoastocreateanatrocitythatcouldbeblamedonRussia.
-ByorderoftheKievgovernment,
-Or,bysomeentitynotunderKiev'scontrol,
-Perhaps,eitherway,bysuggestionofsomeagencyintheUSA
ItshouldberecalledthattheUSAin1962didseriouslyentertainaschemetoshoot
downapassengerplaneandblameitonCastro.("Itispossibletocreateanincidentwhich
willdemonstrateconvincinglythataCubanaircrafthasattackedandshotdownachartered
civilairliner..."Admittedly,theplancalledfornopassengerstobekilled).
Themediadogisnolongerbarking
Iwoulddrawthereader'sattentiontothemediacoverage.Amediacampaignblamingthe
rebelsandRussiabeganalmostimmediatelyafterthecrashontheotherhand,themedia
hasbeenverysilentabouttheDSBreport.TheDailyMailcanserveasanexampleofboth:
"Anythingtoconfess,Putin?Russianpresidentinchurchasworldleaderswarnhimyou
can't'washyourhands'ofMH17disaster"18July2014("Amidgrowingevidencethatthe
flightwashitbyasophisticatedsurface-to-airmissile,launchedfromareascontrolledby
pro-RussianrebelsintheseparatisteasternregionsofUkraine,fingershaveincreasingly
beenpointedatRussianpresidentVladimirPutin,whodeniesinvolvement.")and"Russian
missilekilledpilotsandcutjetinhalfbutpassengerscouldhavebeenconsciousforuptoa
minuteasplaneplunged,revealsofficialreportintoMH17downedoverUkraine"17October
2015(ratherneutralcoveragefullof"hesaid,shesaid").Andthestoryseemstohave
disappeared.Acynicmightbeexcusedforwonderingifsomecentralagencyputsoutthe
storyline.Ifindthissuggestive.
Towatch
AsforfurtherdevelopmentsIrecommendAlexanderMercouris'pieceonRI-thereare
somelegalcasescomingupthatmayproveinteresting.IalsorecommendJohnHelmer's
writingsonthesubjectathisblogDanceswithBears.Thestoryappearstobeunravelling
inseveralplacesatonce.Healsogoesintomoredetailsonthetinynumberofbow-tie/I-
beamsonwhichtheDSBhangssomuchofitscase.
Staytuned,theremaybemoretocome.

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From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/19/201502:08:35PM
Cc: BruceOhr<neohr@aol.com>WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:2015-#203-Johnson'sRussiaList
TheUkrainianagriculturalsectorisbooming,btw,inlargepartduetothegrowthintheChinamarket.
OnMon,Oct19,2015at5:01PM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Yes,andaquestionforSergey:justwhendidPutinserveintheSVR(moreclearintheRussianversion)?
SentfrommyiPad
OnOct19,2015,at4:49PM,DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>wrote:
Ivanov'sWorld,whichyouhavenodoubtseen.
Interesting.Fullofenougharrogantsuperpowerswaggerandhalftruthstoswaythemoreimpressionableuseful
idiots.
TheDialectSpeakers'productionofsunflowerseedsmaybebeneatha"GreatPower,"butatleasttheymake
somethingpeopleactuallywanttobuy.
From:DavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Date:Mon,Oct19,2015at1:10PM
Subject:2015-#203-Johnson'sRussiaList
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
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Johnson'sRussiaList
2015-#203
19October2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
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donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.
"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"
"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"
Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
Inthisissue
RUSSIA
1.TASS:SergeyIvanov:Don'tthinktheKremlinalwaysdecideseverything,sometimesit
doesn't.ThechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaffinTASSspecialprojectTopOfficials.
2.Government.ru:DmitryMedvedev'sinterviewwithVestivSubbotu(NewsonSaturday)
programmebytheRossiyatelevisionnetwork.
3.AlJazeera:AnatolLieven,PutinshowshisrealisminSyria.AlackofmoderateSyrian
oppositionforceshasforcedWashingtontogivetacitconsenttoRussianintervention.
4.TheIndependent(UK):VladislavLInozemtsev,Putin'saimisclear:torestorethe
principleofsovereigntytointernationalaffairs.TheRussianPresidenthastwomessages-
oneforhisaudienceathome,onefortheWest.
5.TheIndependent(UK):RobertFisk,EveryonewroteofftheSyrianarmy.Takeanother
looknow.AllthisisonlythebeginningofMrPutin'sadventureintheMiddleEast.
6.MoscowTimes:ForeignInvestmentinRussianCommercialPropertyHits7-YearHigh.
7.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:Russiannationalistsinretreatasgovernmentapplies
pressure.AtemporarybanhasbeenimposedonthesolelargeassociationofRussian
nationalists,withtheprosecutor'sofficedemandingthatitberecognizedasextremist.
RBTHasksactivistsandobserverswhatishappeningwiththenationalistmovementin
Russia,andwhyitisnowcallingitselfthegovernment's"newenemy."
8.Bloomberg:Russia'sAilingConsumersKeepDoorOpenforRateCuts.
9.TASS:Kremlinchiefofstaff:Russiatodonothingagainstitsintereststogetsanctions
lifted.
10.TheJordanTimes:RichardWerverandVladimirYakunin,AreSanctionsSaving
Russia?
11.http://readrussia.com:JamesPearce,Russia:aTaxiDriver'sVersion.
12.HuffingtonPost:SarwarKashmeri,NoRussianQuagmireintheMiddleEast.
13.TheUnzReview:TheSaker,WeekTwooftheRussianMilitaryInterventioninSyria.
OptionsforDaesh,theEmpireandRussia.
14.MiddleEastEye:GarethPorter,Obamawon'tadmittherealtargetsofRussian
airstrikes.NooneisdiscussingtherealitythattheRussianoffensiveistargetingthebiggest
militantthreattotheAssadregime.
15.ProjectSyndicate:RichardHaass,TestingPutininSyria.
16.www.rt.com:AlexanderYakovenko,WhyRussiahadtointerveneinSyria.
17.MoscowTimes:One-ThirdofRussiansThinkRussianMilitaryIsWorld'sBest.
18.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,LifestyleandIdentity.
9.Russia&IndiaReport:AjayKamalakaran,MovingawayfromaWest-centricoutlook.
20.FinancialTimes:CourtneyWeaver,God'sTV,Russianstyle.
21.PublicBooks:Russia,Today:Part1:EliotBorenstein,CAUGHTINABADROMANCE:
WHATAMERICAMEANSTORUSSIA.
UKRAINE
24.MoscowTimes:PoroshenkoPressuresTVChanneltoKeepPutinHandshakeOff-Air.
25.Gazeta.ru:AntonLinnik,PoroshenkoControlsOnlyKiev.WhoWillWininUkraine's
CitiesWithMoreThanMillionInhabitants.
26.Stratfor:aGrandBargainremainselusiveinUkraine.
27.KyivPost:ReturntoVolnovakha:Ninemonthsafter13civilianskilledinRussian-
separatistattack,loyaltiesstilldivided.
28.WorldAffairs:AlexanderMotyl,ACautionaryNote:ReintegratingtheDonbas.
29.MoscowTimes:Jean-MarieGuehenno,What'sNextforRussiaandUkraine?
30.RussiaDirect:VladimirEvseev,8reasonswhytheDutchgottheMH17report
incomplete.ThereportpublishedbytheDutchSafetyBoardontheBoeing777Malaysia
AirlinesdisastercannotbedefinitivebecauseitlargelyignoresthefindingsofRussian
experts.
31.RussiaDirect:IvanTsvetkov,TheMalaysianBoeingsagaisfarfromover.The"final"
MH17reportshowsthatthereisstillalongwaytogoindeterminingwhatactually
happenedinUkraine.
32.RussiaInsider:PatrickArmstrong,MH17FinalreportisNotaFinalReportIt'sJusta
LimitedHangout.Ittellsasmuchofthetruthasithasto.Butnomore.
#1
TASS
October19,2015
SergeyIvanov:Don'tthinktheKremlinalwaysdecideseverything,sometimesitdoesn't
ThechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaffinTASSspecialprojectTopOfficials
[http://tass.ru/en/politics/829778]
InterviewedbyAndreiVandenko:BornNovember8,1959inLuhansk,Ukraine.In1982,
AndreiVandenkograduatedfromtheKievNationalUniversityofTarasShevchenko
specializinginjournalism.Since1989,helivesandworksinMoscow.Vandenkohasmore
than20yearsofexperienceintheinterviewgenre.Hewaspublishedinthemajorpartof
topRussianmediaoutletsandisawinnerofprofessionalawards.
ThechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaffdwellsuponthemostacuteissuesofRussia's
politicsandsocietyinaninterviewwithTASS.
AboutSaddamHussein,refinedliberals,thelawofthejungle,foreignpolicy
ambitionsandlessonsofhistory
-TheworldlearnedthatRussiawasabouttogotowaragainsttheIslamicStateinSyria
whenyoupresentedthepresident'srequestforpermissiontousethearmedforcesoutside
thenationalterritorytotheFederationCouncil(upperhouseofparliament).Youwerethe
onewhobrokethenews,sowillyoupleasetellus:'Whynow?'
-Let'sbeginatthebeginning.MemoriesarestillgreenofhowourUSpartnersand
colleaguesinthelate2000swereexplainingtomeingreatdetailhowveryimportantitwas
tobringdemocracytotheMiddleEast.Nowthey'vebroughtitthere...Forthewholeworldto
seetheresults.
TheoperationEnduringFreedomlastedinAfghanistanforthirteenyears.TheUnitedStates
launcheditinresponseto9/11.ItwasthelongestwartheUnitedStateshadeverfought.Its
ultimategoal-victoryovertheTaliban-remainedunachievable.
Idon'tthinkI'llhavetoexplaintoanybodywhattheAmericanshaveplungedIraqintomore
thanadecadeofchaosandlawlessness.OneshouldrememberthatSaddamHussein
hatedAlQaedaandallotherterrorists.Takeitfromme.True,whilefightingagainstthemhe
employedmethodsonecanhardlycalldemocratic.Hewassendingthemtothegallows
andhehadthemshotwithoutinquestoftrial.Thatwashiswayofsettlingscoreswith
opponents.AslongasSaddamstayedinpower,nooneeverhadtheslightestideasome
kindofterroristgroupsmightcropupintheterritoryofIraq.ButthenSaddamHusseinwas
senttothegallowshimself.Withalltheensuingconsequences.
Next,toLibya.ThecountryhasnowbeenturnedintoanotherSomalia.Thissaysitall.The
goalofNorthAfrica'sandtheMiddleEast'sconversiontodemocracywasagainofferedas
theunderlyingmotif
OrtakeEgypt.Nowitissomewhatoutsidethespotlightofpublicattention.Someother
troublespotsarefarhotter.Butjustrecently,in2012theCNNwastelecastinghours-long
bombasticreportsaboutwakingpopularmassesinCairo,andattimesitcameprettyclose
topresentingtheMuslimBrotherhoodasrefinedliberalsanddemocrats...Tocutalong
storyshort:butforthecourageandfar-sightednessofthethenEgyptiandefenseminister,
GeneralEl-Sisi,thecountrythesedayswouldhavebeenlookingverymuchlikeLibya.In
thatsituationtheremight'vefollowedamercilessfree-for-all.Mindyou,Egyptisthemost
denselypopulatedcountryoftheMiddleEastwithapopulationofmorethan80million.It
wasfortunatehistoryturneditanotherway...
Now,wehaveSyria...
-I'mnotsureaboutthe'now'part.Thecivilwarthereeruptedbackin2011.
-Correct.Theconflicttherehaslastedforseveralyearsnow.Alargeterritoryofthecountry
isunderthecontroloftheIslamicStateandotherterroristgroups.It'sahardfact!Allofus
havebeenwitnessestohowverysuccessfultheinternationalcoalitionhasbeeninitsmore
thantwelve-month-longmilitarycampaignagainsttheIS.
-Areyoubeingironic?
ThewayIseeit,theworldisataturningpointininternationalrelations.Ontheonehand,
therearetheuniversallyrecognizedinstitutions,liketheUNSecurityCouncil.Butforthem
allofuswould'vehadareallyhardtimethesedays.Andontheother,thereareindividual
countrieswhichpositionthemselvesasbenchmarksofdemocracyandoffhandedlydefy
internationallaw.Thereisnowrittenlawtheymayagreetorecognize.Infact,thesolerule
theyagreewithis:"Mightmakesright."Andthatisarealmenace.Afterall,theplacewhere
weallliveisnotthejungle,andnobodyshouldfeelfreetoruintheestablishedworldorder.
Inasense,Syriaisalitmustest.Iwon'tberetellingnowwhatexactlyPresidentPutintold
theUNGeneralAssemblysession,orreviewindetailthebackgroundofhisrequesttothe
FederationCouncilforpermissiontouseourarmedforcestohelpthegovernmentin
Damascus.IwilljustsayonceagainthatRussiainthisparticularcaseispursuingno
foreignpolicyambitionswhatsoever.Itiscrystal-clearthatmilitarymeansalonewillnever
bringaboutasettlementinSyria.Inthefinalcountapoliticalsolutionwillhavetobegintobe
lookedfor.Afuturesolutionwillbecomplexandhardtoachieve,butSyriaassuchisano
simplecountry.Bytheway,originally,theideaofanintra-Syrianallianceinthestruggle
againsttheIslamicStatewasnotours:itcamefromtheFrenchPresident,Francois
Hollande.HespeculatedthatthegovernmenttroopsunderBasharAssadandtheso-called
FreeSyrianArmymightpresentacommonfront.Ofcourse,ifthelatterdoesexistin
reality,andisnotavirtualbrainchildofsomearmchairpunditsintheWest.Anysensible
oppositioncanbenegotiatedwithandcompromisesaretobemutual-that'sprettyclear.
Inthemeantime,whilethisisstillamatterofdistantfuture,Iwouldmentiononemore
argumentwhyRussiahadtointerveneintheSyrianconflict.Asyoumayhaveheard,there
arethousandsofRussiaorCIS-bornpeoplefightingfortheIslamicState.Sowillyou
adviseustojustwatchandwaitforthemtobetrainedthereandthengetbackhome?
Manyarestillnotinthemoodofsayingcertainthingsaloud.Theyjustdon'tdarestatethem
outright.ButIwill...CrowdsofrefugeesfromtheMiddleEastarenowheadingforcountries
insouthernEurope,hopingtocrossittoWesternEurope.Howcanonebesurethat
amongthemigrantsthereareno"sleepers"-sleepingagentsorundercoverterroristswho
areonthewaytotheOldWorldforthepurposeofsettlingdowninconspicuouslysomehow
andwaitingfortheD-daytocome?AndonthatD-daytheywillemergeintheforefront
againtoplaytheverywellfamiliarrole.Forinstance,ofasuicidebomberwhoisprepared
togiveupone'slifeforfaithandtakeasmanyotherhumanlivesaspossible?Iwouldn'tlike
touttergloomprophecies,butIpersonallyhavenodoubtsitwillhappenthisway.Iamdead
certain!
-Butaren'tweprovokingtheseradicalsbygettinginvolvedinthiswar?Didn'tthejust-
preventedterroristattackinMoscowringthefirstalarmbell?
-WewilldoourutmosttoensurethatnobodyevercomestoRussiafromtheIslamic
State,thatallofthemremaininSyriansoil.
-Butyouhaven'tansweredthequestionwhatwasthereasonforustojointhefightatthis
particularmoment.
-Thesituationhasturnedintolerant.
-Somewesternmediahavebeenquotinganonymoussources-traditionallyanonymous,I
shouldsay-intheKremlinthatPresidentPutinwastalkedintobeginninganairoperationin
SyriabyatrioofDefenseMinisterSergeyShoigu,SecurityCouncilSecretaryNikolai
Patrushevandyou.Wasthatreallyso?
-IbelieveIshouldthankyoufirstformentioningmeinsuchagoodcompany...Iambeing
ironicagain,don'tyousee,sowillyoupleaseforgivethishabitofmine.Makingserious
commentsregardingsuch"leaks"isalwaysveryhard.Butifwearetostayneutraland
discussonlythehardfacts,Iwillsaythis:thementioned"anonymoussources"gotitall
wrong.Howitallhappenedwasverydifferent.
-So,howdiditallhappen?ConspiracytheoryfansareclaimingthatSyriaisjustadecoy
operation,launchedtoswitchattentionfromtheeastofUkrainetotheMiddleEast,topush
Donbasintothebackground.
-It'sabsurdtorefuteplaingossip.I'vealreadyexplainedwhywefounditrightand
appropriatetorespondtotherequestfromSyria'slegitimateleadershipforhelpinfighting
againstterroristsofallsorts.Whatattemptstoswitchattentionareyoutalkingabout?Look
here,itwasnotuswhostagedtheanti-constitutionalcoupinKiev,right?Iamreadyto
discussthethemeofUkraineingreaterdetail,ifyouwish.Justasoureffortstogetoutof
theso-calledisolationnomatterwhat.IlovehistoryandIdoknowthatRussiahasalways
beenlookedatasathreatandwithgreatsuspicion,toputitmildly.Thatwassowhen
Russiawasanempireandruledbytsars,itwassothroughouttheSovietyears,andwe
stillseethesametoday.AlexanderSolzhenytsinsaidperfectlywellthatfromtime
immemorialtheWesthadfeltscaredofRussia'senormity.Enormity,mindyou!Wesaw
sanctionstakenagainstusbackduringtheruleoftheRomanovdynasty.There'snothing
newaboutthem.Tradebarrierswereputupandfinancialobstructionsposedagainand
again...Thosemeasureswerefarharsherthanthecurrentones.Butwemanaged.We
didn'tgetscaredinthepast,andwewillstayfirmthistime.TheWestgrosslyexaggerates
theinfluenceofthelatestsanctionsontheRussianeconomy.True,theydoposecertain
hindrancestous,itwouldbefoolishtodenytheobvious,butIwillsayagainandagainthat
inthepastwelivedthroughfargreaterproblems.
AttemptstopunishRussiaaresenselessandineffective.TaketheexpulsionfromtheG8.
Somemust'vethoughtwewouldgetverymuchupset.ButtheG8iscertainlynottheplace
wherewewouldliketogetback.Honestly!Inthe1990sRussiaspentmuchtimeandeffort
forthesakeofbeingadmittedtothisclubofselectfewiteventuallygotthereonlytoseefor
itselfthattheG8wasnolongercapableofaddressinganyofthefundamentalissues
humanitywasconfrontedwithatthecurrentstage.True,itispossibletogettogethertotalk
aboutthewesternattitude(western,mindyou)tothisorthatissue,buttheworldtodayis
verydifferent.TheG20-that'stheworthylevel.Itistherethattrulyimportantthemesare
beingdiscussedandsolutionmechanismscanbedevised.HereisaSyria-related
example.Theneedforeliminatingthearsenalsofchemicalweaponsinthatcountrywas
agreedonwithintheG20format,andnottheG8orG7group.Sotherenoregretsaboutthe
demiseoftheG8,believeme.
AsfortheprocedureemployedtomakethedecisiontodispatchaRussianairgroup(which
inthepastwould'vepossiblybeencalledalimitedtroopcontingent)tothebasenear
Latakia,therewasnohasteoranythingspontaneous.Allstepshadbeenconsideredwell
beforehandandagreedwiththeSupremeCommander-in-Chief.Itiscommonknowledge
thatthecombataircraftandsomespecialunitsoftheRussianarmedforceshadbeen
dispatchedtoSyriawellinadvance...
-Althoughwekeptdenyingeverythingatfirst.
-Wedidn't.Weneitherconfirmednordeniedthereports.Wemerelyrefrainedfrom
comment.That'sstandardinternationalpractice.Andquitelegitimate,bytheway.Butlet's
berealistic:everybodyunderstandsthattheredeploymentofseveraldozenplanescannot
bekeptsecret.Everythingcanbeseenwellfromspace.
ThefinaldiscussionontheoperationinSyria,withseniormilitaryofficialstakingpart,was
heldatameetingofRussia'sSecurityCouncillateintheeveningonSeptember29.We
consideredalltheprosandcons,allstrengthsandweaknessesonceagain.The
presidentialrequesttotheFederationCouncilfollowedonlyafterthat.Ibroughtthetextto
theFCbuildinginBolshayaDmitrovkaStreetearlythenextmorning...
-TheAmericanshavealreadypredictedthelossestheRussianswillsoonsustaininSyria.
It'sclearthattherecanbenowarwithoutlosses,buthowlargeistheriskofsuch
developments?Whatdoyouthink?
-AsI'vesaid,wegaugedalllikelyrisks.Ourtroopswillnotbeinvolvedinclashesonthe
ground.Wedeclaredthatfromtheoutsetandinveryclearterms.Theairbasefromwhere
ourplanesflycombatmissionsisinsideanareaunderthefullcontrolofSyriangovernment
forces.Thereisacertainlevelofprotection,andaveryseriousone.Apartfromtheair
pilotsandthemaintenancepersonnelbasedinLatakiathereisasmallcommandounit
responsibleforguardingtheairbase.That'sanaturalprecautionandanyothercountry
would'vetakenit.SoIwouldn'tsaythereisaseriousriskofanattackagainsttheRussian
airgroupinSyria.Theoreticallyeverythingispossible,butallprecautionshavebeentaken.
Asforwhathasbeensaidabouttheexpectedlosses,we'dprefertobemoretactfulandto
avoidcountingtheUSMarineswho'vealreadylosttheirlivesinIraqandAfghanistan.
--
AboutUkraine,channelsofdialogue,sanctions,causesofthecrisis,import
substitution,goodcheeses,pampersanddestructionofcounterfeitproducts
-NowaboutUkraine,asyou'vesuggested.WhenhemadeatriptoSevastopolin
September,VladimirPutindeclareditwasnecessarytorestorefull-scalerelations.Isita
solubletaskagainstthebackgroundofwhatwecanseetoday?
-Clearly,ourrelationswiththeauthoritiesinKievhavefallentoarecord-low.Butthereare
twofactorsoneshouldkeepinmind.Thatithappenedsoisnofaultofours.Secondly,
Ukraineisaspecialcase.Thatcountryremainsahometomanyofourpeople.Andnotin
somevirtualsense,butinaveryspecificone:somebody'sparents,brothers,sisters,
grandpasandgrandmas...ThisillustrateshowrightandtothepointPutinwaswhenhe
saidthatinfactwewereonepeople.Wehaveawholeuniversetoshare:mentally,
religiouslyandculturally.Thelanguageincluded.WeareoneSlavicpeople,there'sno
arguingaboutthat.
-ButinKievthiskindofapproachcausesstrongrejection.Peopletherearguethatweare
verydifferentandthattheirlanguageiscertainlynotadialect.
-True,itispossibletorewritehistoryagainandagain,butthatwillnotchangeanything.Ido
believethatsoonerorlaterthedaywillcomewhenrelationsbetweenourcountrieswill
begintomend.
-Oddlyenough,the"later"partoftheformulaworksfarmoreoftenthanthe"sooner"one.
-Farfromeverythingdependsonus.Iftheothersidestaysreluctantanddefiant,
compulsionwon'thelp.Ittakestwototango...
-That'swhyIamaskingyouwhatyoupersonallydothesedaysforthesakeofbringing
fraternalpeoplesclosertogether?Say,doyoucontactBorisLozhkin-youropposite
numberintheUkrainianpresidentialstaff-oftenenoughandwhatthemesdoyoudiscuss?
-Therearecontactsatdifferentlevels.ThroughtheRussiangovernment,theForeign
Ministryandthepresidentialstaff...Iamnotinthepositiontodisclosethedetailsof
confidentialnegotiationsthatwe'vehadsofarandarestillhaving,butIcantellyouthatat
thebeginningoftheconflict,whenactivecombatoperations,infact,acivilwarinthe
territoryofUkraine,wereinprogress,wehadmorefrequentcontactsinabidtoputanend
tothebloodshedandfratricidalclashes.ThatwasbeforetheMinskFormat.Nowthe
situationhaschangedandthereisanewstablechannelforadialogue.Manythingshave
beendelegatedtothelevelofcontactgroups,inwhichRussiaisrepresentedasan
equitablepartner.Butifnecessary,IcanputacallthroughtoKievanymoment.
Accordingly,BorisLozhkinfeelsfreetophonemeanytime.Wedocontacteachother,
whenevertheneedarises.Thesituationisnowbetterthanitwasayearago,thankGod.At
leasttherearenoactivecombatclashesinDonbas.True,theproblemcannotberesolved
withoutapoliticalsettlementandtheimplementationoftheMinskAccordstothefullextent
isnowintheforefront.TheNormandyQuartethasstatedthatclearly.Adirectdialogue
betweenKiev'sofficialsandtheleadersofDonetskandLuhanskarenumberoneissueon
theagenda.Thepurposeistodeterminethemodality,therulesofthegame,andto
eventuallyholdelectionsincompliancewithUkrainianlegislationtoletthepeopleofDonbas
feeltheirrightsenjoysteadfastprotection,internationalguaranteesandobligations
included.Afterthatitmightbepossibletomoveontoafinalpeacearrangement.
-TheimplementationofMinsk-2isoneoftheconditionsfortheliftingofsanctionsfrom
Russia.Yousaythesanctionscausednobigtroubletous,butyouwouldagreethereis
nothingaboutthemthatcanmakesushappy.
-I'dputitthisway:
Wewillneverdoanythingtoharmournationalinterestsjustforthesakeofseeingthe
sanctionslifted
.Neverever!Itwasnotuswhotookthosemeasures,andwearenotgoingtodiscussin
anyformatwhatisnecessaryforcancelingthem.
-ButpeaceinUkrainedoesnotruncountertotheinterestsofRussia,doesit?
-Ofcourse,itdoesn't.ButIwouldavoidanylinkagehere.Areyoucertainthatthesanctions
willbeliftedevenafterimpeccablecompliancewithMinsk-2?Arethereanyguarantees?
Personally,Ihavebigdoubtsonthatscore.Thereisnoreasonwhyweshouldoffer
excusesoraskforforgiveness.
Now...
.Thesanctionsdidcausecertainlosses.TheGDPisonthedecline,andnotonthe
ascent.Wedon'tdenythat.But!TherootcausefortheRussianeconomy'sslowdownis
notsanctions,butthefallintheworldpricesofoilandgas.Iagreethatthishas
demonstratedagainourstrongdependenceonhydrocarbonsandhowverybadthisis.But
ontheotherhand,we'vebeenabletorealizethevectoroffutureactiontobetakentoease
thepressuresoftherawmaterialsfactor.
-Areyousatisfiedwithprogressinimportsubstitution,whichisnowthefocusofattention?
-Iwouldsplityourquestionintwo.Thetaskofglobalandeffectivesubstitutionforcertain
productsthatarebeingimportedfromothercountriescanbeaccomplishedin5-7years'
timeattheearliest.Althoughtheremaybeeconomicsectorswheremeetingfartighter
deadlinesmaybepossible.Forinstance,themilitary-industrialcomplex.Agreatdealhas
beendonetherealongtheselinesalready,believeme.Incidentally,itisUkrainethathas
beenthehardest-hitasaresult.Iamsayingsoinallseriousness,withoutashadeofirony.
Ourneighborshavelosttheirspacerocketindustryandaircraftandshipbuildingaswell.
True,theyhaverisentonumberoneplaceintheworldastheexporterof...sunflower
seeds.Ilearnedthatfromapieceauthoredbyoneofyourfellowjournalists.Ifthe
authoritiesinKievdocareaboutthefutureoftheirstate,theyshoulddosomethingserious
aboutwhatisreallyhappening.Onceanagrarian-industrialcountry,Ukraineisbeingturned
intoaforsakenbackyard-willyouexcusemeforsayingso-asecond-ratefarmgrowing
agriculturalproducewithveryslimchancesofeverfindingabuyerwhowouldagreeto
haveit.There's100-percentcertaintytheEuropeanUnionwillnothaveit.Icantellyouthat
rightaway.Ukraine'sanotherroleunderthecurrentschemeofthingswillbethatofan
exporterofcheaplabortoothercountries.Don'tforgetthatsincetheDonbasunrestbegan
threemillionUkrainianshavefledthecountry.Wheredidtheygo?Right,theywentto
Russia.Morethanonemillionofthemarerefugees.Andtheothershavefull-timejobshere.
Anyhow,it'suptoourneighborstodecidewhatkindofcountrytheywouldliketolivein
tomorrow.
Now,let'sgetbacktothethemeofimportsubstitutionintheRussianeconomy.In
agriculturethechangesarenotsosignificantastheyhavebeeninthedefenseindustry,
althoughproductsfromdomesticmanufacturesarealreadytakingfarmorespaceonthe
shelvesofoursupermarketsthesedays.Farmorethanjustacoupleofyearsago.Isthis
goodorbad?Tometheanswerisobvious.
-Thedialecticslawsseemtofailonceinawhile.Quantitydoesnotalwaystransforminto
quality.Atleast,theRussianagriculturalwatchdogRosselkhoznadzorsaidjustrecently
thatnearlyeightypercentofRussiancheesesisnotcheesesatall,butforgeriescontaining
vegetablefat.Ashortwhilelater,though,PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevaskedcertain
officialsnottoscarethecustomerswithforgerystatisticsandtheybacktracked.Butthe
qualityofcheesehashardlyimprovedsince.
-Iagreethatthesituationcannotbeimprovedovernight.But,asyouunderstand,we'vegot
accustomedtorelyonimportsandmadenogoodcheesesofourownforahundredyears
orso.Soitwouldbenavetothinkthatgoodcheesewillsuddenlyemergeoutofnowhere.
Itneverhappens.
Butapartfromcheesethereispoultry,porkandvegetables.We'vemanagedtomeetthe
entiredomesticmarketdemand.That'sarealchanceforourfarmproducers.Irecall
sayingoncethatsanctionsmayendsomeday,Godforbid,andthewindowofopportunities
willbeshutdownagain!We'vegottotakeadvantageofthesituationandtobuildup
production.Therearesuchplansatthefederallevelandinmanyregions,wherethe
climateisfavorableforfarming.Theplanwilltaketimetomaterialize,orcourse,butsome
positiveresultsarealreadywellinsight.
Please,remember,totalimportsubstitutionisnogoalofours.Wehavenointentionof
screeningourselvesfromtheoutsideworld.Itwould'vebeenridiculous,ifwe'dhadsuch
plans.Thosewhoarediscussingsanctionsthesedaysforsomereasonquicklyshifttothe
themeofRussia'sinternationalisolation.Whatdotheyreallymean?Theworldisnot
confinedtoWesternEurope,theUnitedStates,Canadaandsomeotherstates.Theother
countriesandregionsarenotclosedtous.Asia,AfricaandLatinAmerica...Theyareopen
toholidaymakersandtotradeasbefore.
Inaword,wewillkeepdevelopingnormally,stayintouchwitheachother,and,ifneedbe,
findalternativestoproductswearestillunabletoproduceourselves.Butspendinghard
currencyonpampers,thewaywedidjustrecently,ishardlyreasonabletoday.That'snota
precisioninstrumentforaspacerocket.Ibelievethatlaunchingtheproductionofsuch
consumergoodsinRussiawillbenoproblem.
-Withoutforgettingaboutquality,though..
-Itgoeswithoutsaying.Wedon'tneedanillusionoftheprocess.Wedon'tneedbox-
ticking,toputitbluntly:nosituationswhereanewly-madecommodityprovesbyfarinferior
toforeigncounterparts.Moreover,intheglobaleconomyhardlyanyproducermanufactures
productsmeantforthedomesticmarketonly.Ifsomethingistobemanufactured,thenonly
withaviewtoexportingtheitem.Otherwiseitwilljustmakenosense.Iknowthatfrommy
ownexperiencewithaircraft-building.
-Andwhatwouldyousayaboutthepublicdestructionofproductsundersanctions?Notas
thechiefoftheKremlinstaff,butassomeonewhowasborninthecityofLeningrad,which
experiencedthehorrorssiegeandfamineduringWorldWarII?
-Mineisaveryunequivocalattitude.Byvirtueofmymainprofession...
-Ofacareerintelligenceofficer?
-Right.I'vespentmanyyearsintheWest,andIdoknowwellthatanycivilizedcountry
mercilesslydoesawaywithcounterfeitproducts.Beitfoods,alcohol,tobacco,clothes,
footwear,medicines,householdappliancesorelectronics.Everythingisburntdown,
crushedbycaterpillartractors-inaword,disposedofinanyconceivableway.That'show
thecivilizedworldgoesaboutthisbusiness.Everywhere!
-InfrontofTVcamerasthatfilmtheprocessforprimetimenews?
-Idon'tinsistonthat.I'mtalkingabouttheprinciple.Thereisnootherwayoffighting
forgeries.Ihavemyownexperienceonthatscore.Whenin2001Itookthedefense
minister'spost,westartedbringingthearmedforcesbacktonormal.Irememberwellthe
momentwhenIorderedalargenavalexerciseintheCaspiantochecktheflotilla'scombat
readiness.Thenwe'djustreceivedthenewgenerationships,theverysameshipsthaton
October7thisyearattackedIslamicStatepositionsinSyriawithcruisemissiles.
-OnVladimirPutin'sbirthday...Bytheway,didyoucongratulateyourchief?
-Naturally.MadeamorningphonecalltoSochi.
-Gavehimabirthdaygift?
-Idid.ButIwon'ttellyouwhatkindofpresentitwas.Also,I'dkeepquietaboutbirthday
wishes.Theyweremeantonlyforhim.
...Butwe'vestrayedawayfromtheCaspiannavalexercisethemesomewhat.Itwasinthe
early2000s.Whenitwasallover,theheadsoftheAstrakhanRegionandtheRepublicof
Kalmykiacameuptomewithwordsofpraiseandthanks.Atfirst,Iwascuriouswhatthe
twomenweretalkingabout.Soonitturnedoutthatsturgeonshadreachedthespawning
groundsupstreamtheVolgaRiverforthefirsttimeinmanyyears!Thenitdawneduponme
thatwhileconductingtheexerciseweclearedtheVolgaRiver'sdeltaofseveraldozen
kilometers(andthat'snotaslipofthetongue!)ofpoachers'fishingnets.Weruinedalltheir
criminalbusinessplans!Tomyrecollection,therefollowedalongdiscussionofwhatwas
tobedonetotheconfiscatedblackcaviar.Underthepreviouslaws,itwastobemarketed.
Thatmeantthatthelocalpoliceforcewouldhavetoopenretailoutletstosellthe
confiscatedcaviar.Therebycreatinganidealenvironmentforcorruption.It'shardtothinkof
abetterone.TheInteriorMinistryspentalongwhilepersuadingthetopauthoritiestoagree
totheeliminationofpoachercaviaronsite.Thecaviarlobbywasresistingthatforseveral
yearsforitwasabouttolosearealbonanza.Putinwasfirmandallillegalblackcaviarhas
beendestroyedsince2006.Themarketwasrestoredtoorder.
ThereisnoofficiallobbyingasaninstitutioninRussia(whichisbad,totellyouthetruth),
butunofficiallobbyingwasalwaysthriving.IknowwhatIamsaying.Icomeacrossitalmost
everyday.SoIcansayonceagainit'smyfirmbeliefthattheeliminationofforgedfoodsis
thesolecorrectway.Therewillbenoalternatives,ifwearetostruggleagainstcorruption
effectivelyenough.Asforthosewhosaythatseniorcitizenswhosurvivedthesiegeof
Leningradareunhappy...Naturally,Iwasbornwhenthatwarhadbeenover,butmyown
parentsrememberedwellenoughwhatthatsiegewasforthem.Onlydemagoguescan
capitalizeonthistheme.It'sverywrongtoplaywithemotions,letaloneinsuchamean
way.
---
Aboutcorruption,aconflictofinterest,arrests,jailings,theyear1937andhigh-
profileinvestigations
-Thismeansthateverythingagaindependsonaparticularperson...ThisiswhatAudit
ChamberHeadTatianaGolikovasaidinarecentinterviewwithTASS:theproblemisnot
evenintheabsenceofbudgetfundsbutintheirresponsibilityofofficialswhoarerequired
tooverseetherationalspendingofbudgetappropriations.
-So,whatcanIsayinthisregard?Thisisabsolutelytrue.Itisnecessarytofightthisstate
ofthingsbyallavailablemeans,usingbothinstructiveandpunitivemeasures.
Unfortunately,littleisachievedinRussiawithoutinstructionsfrom"theabove"[theupper
echelonsofpower]butthesearetheproblemsofmentalityratherthanlogisticsor
economicschemes.Honestlyspeaking,budgetfundsshouldbespentefficientlynot
becausewehavefoundourselvesinadifficultfinancialsituation.Thisshouldbedoneevery
time,bothduringthe"fat"yearsandtheyearsofausterity.Thisisageneralrule,anaxiom.
Anotherthingisthatduringthefatyearsmanyofficials,aboveall,regionalheads,were
accustomedtolivewiththeawarenessthattherewasa"safetycushion"andthecentral
authoritieswouldcometotheirrescue,iftheeconomicsituationdeteriorated.Theybelieved
thecenterwouldhavenootherwayoutbuttohelpthembecauseotherwisethiswould
increaseunemploymentandintensifysocialtension.Theywereaccustomedtothinkthat
thecentralgovernmentwouldcometohelpthemandgivethemsomemoremoney,evenif
someprogramwasnotimplementedontimeorwasfulfilledinefficiently.Thousandsof
reasonscouldbefoundforanexcuseeachtimeasofficialsareveryskilledtofindanalibi
forthemselvesandinthisregardtheyareverytalentedpeople.Youshowanofficiala
protocolmadefiveyearsagoandremindhim:"Youpromisedtodothisorthatandyou
signedthisdocument!"Buttheofficialonlyshrugshisshoulders:"Ican'tdoanything.The
circumstanceshavechanged."
Yes,theyaredifferentnow.Thefederalcenterwillnolongerassisteveryone
indiscriminately.Aregionalheadshouldfirstexplainwhytheregionalauthoritieshavefailed
tofulfilltheobligationstheyhaveassumed.Thefurther,themoredifficultitisforregional
headstoconcealtheirfailures.TheAll-RussianPopularFrontpublicmovementis
contributingtothisprocessalongwiththemediaandtheInternet.However,theInternetisa
stickthathastwoends:itcandogoodservicebutitcanalsobearealgarbageplace.In
anycase,controlhasbecometighter,includingfromordinarycitizenswhofindawayto
declareviolationstheyhaveseen.
Theheadsunwillingorunabletorealizethatthetimeshavechangedaresurrenderingtheir
powersinonewayoranotherandquittingthescene.
-Actually,onlytheKremlincanremovegovernors.VyacheslavDudka[formergovernorof
theTulaRegion]andVasilyYurchenko[formergovernoroftheNovosibirskRegion]have
quittheirpostsastheyhavelostthepresident'sconfidence.AlexanderKhoroshavin[former
governoroftheSakhalinRegion]isunderinvestigationforbribesworthmillionsofrubles
whileVyacheslavGaizer[formerheadoftheRepublicofKomi],asitturnsout,organizeda
criminalgroup.Willthisseriesbecontinued?
-Doyouwantustoarrestsomeoneeveryweek?Ordoyoubelieve,perhaps,thatevery
governorinRussiaisaswindlerandathief?Ipersonallydon'tthinkso.I'mconfidentthatan
overwhelmingmajorityofofficials,bothattheregionalandfederallevels,arehonestand
nicepeople.Youcan'tsmearblackpaintoneveryone.
Allthenecessaryanti-corruptionlegislativeactshavebeenadoptedinRussia.Nowthey
havetobestrictlyobserved.Forexample,governmentofficialshavebeenpublishingtheir
incomedeclarationsformanyyearsnow.Ipublishedmydeclarationforthefirsttimeback
in2000anditwasacompletelynaturalandcustomaryprocessforme.Anotherthingis
thatapartfromdirectcorruptionwestillhaveaveryunfavorablesituationwiththeso-called
conflictofinterests.Howdoesthislooklikeinpractice?Perhaps,youknowtheexamples
whenaparticularofficialmakesadecisiononthedistributionofprocurementordersforthe
fulfillmentofworksfinancedfromthestatetreasuryorunderstatepurchasesandit
subsequentlyturnsoutthatthetendercontractwassurprisinglyawardedtoacompany
affiliatedwiththatofficial.Itturnsoutthattheofficial'sdaughterisworkingatthiscompany
asitspresidentorhiswifesitsonthecompany'sboardofdirectors.Suchpracticeis
widespread.OnOctober6,PresidentVladimirPutinsignedalaw,whichclearlydefinesa
conflictofinterestforgovernmentofficials,waystoavoiditandmeasures,whichanofficial
isobligedtotake(preciselywhatheisobligedtodo)incaseswhenthereisathreatofthe
emergenceofaconflictsituation.Youknow,thelawstartedtoworkevenbeforeitofficially
cameintoforce.I'mheadofthepresidiumoftheAnti-CorruptionCouncilundertheRussian
presidentandweexaminenon-publiclyinthe"Miscellaneous"sectiontheinquiriesby
officials,includinghigh-levelfunctionaries,whoinformusthataconflictofinterestmay
emergeundercertaincircumstances.Orletusconsideradifferentsituation:apersonquits
governmentserviceandwantstocontinueworkinacompany,whichinthepasthad
relation,say,totheministrywherethisofficialworked.Peopleaskthequestion:canwe
accepttheinvitation?Wehavealotofsuchinquiries.Sometimes,wegiveourpermission
butrefusalsalsooccur.Everythingdependsonaparticularsituation.
Andthisisverygood.Anti-corruptionbehaviorisgraduallybecomingnormalpractice.Of
course,high-profileprobesarealwaysmuchspokenaboutandthemedialikessuch
cases.Onegovernorwasjailed,anothergovernorwasremovedfromhispost...Butyou
wantmore.Areyoucallingusintotheyear1937whentherevolutionaryjusticewas
administeredwithoutcourtproceedingsandinvestigation?
-Whyso?Thisshouldbedoneproperly,underlaw.
-Look,theremustbeweightyargumentstoplaceapersonunderarrest.Isitclear?For
yourinformation,ninegovernorshavebeencriminallyprosecutedoverthepastfewyears,
bothincumbentandthosewhohavelefttheirposts.ButIwanttosayaboutadifferent
thing.High-profilecasesaremuchwrittenandspokenaboutandthisisperhapsrightbut
youshouldknowthatRussiancourtsannuallypassdozensofthousandsofguiltyverdicts
forcorruption-relatedcrimes.Dozensofthousands!
-Whatisthelevelthesecrimesarecommittedat?
-ThisiswhatI'mtalkingabout.Whenadoctororaschoolteacherisconvictedforabribe-
andthishappensinamajorityofcases-thisseemstobedullanduninteresting.Butthere
isanuproarwhentheconvictisagovernororaminister.Thestruggleagainstcorruptionis
notacampaignoraPR-action,withthehelpofwhichtheauthoritiestrytogainadditional
pointsandraisetheirpopularity.Theremustbenowitch-huntjusttopleasesomeone.And
therecanbenoselectivejusticedependingonthedefendant'spost.Iftherearegrounds,
chargesarebroughtagainstapersonwithoutabackwardglanceattheperson'spostor
status.Themostimportantthingisthattherearenounpunishablepersonsinanti-
corruptionactivity.Otherwise,governorswouldnotbearrestedandtheirfatewouldbe
decidedinasomewhatbehind-the-scenesprocess.
-IrecallyourinterviewyougavethreeyearsagotoTVChannelOnewhereyousaidwhat
youknew:peoplewhowerepreviouslytreatedwithtrustwerestealing.Butyouhadto
toleratethisandgivenosign...
-Thiswasthecaseaboutlarge-scaleembezzlementofbudgetfundsfromtheGLONASS
federalprogram[forthedevelopmentofthenationalsatellitegrouping].Atthattime,Ihada
closed-doormeetingwithInteriorMinistryofficersinvestigatingthecase.Theytoldme
aboutthedetailsoftheprobebutithadbeengoingonforalongtimeanditwasimportant
formenottogivemyselfawaysoasnottofrightenawaythesuspects.Ididn'tmentionthis
intheinterviewbutIbelieveitiscleartoeveryonethatwhenwelearntaboutthetheftwe
changedtheschemeoftheproject'sfinancingtoexcludetheembezzlementofbudget
funds.Thisisabsolutelyobvious!Someeighteenmonthslater,weopenedacriminalcase
andbroughtcharges.Todaysomeofthesepersonsarenolongeralivewhileothersarefar
off,servingtheirprisonterm...Youshouldunderstandthatasuspicionisnotyetaproof
andthepresidentialadministrationisnottheInvestigativeCommittee...
-Butthecorruptofficialssubmittedtaxreturnsinaccordancewiththeestablished
procedure,inwhicheverything,perhaps,lookedfine,butacloserexaminationwouldreveal
...
-Thelaunderingofbudgetfundsandtheirwithdrawalintooffshorehavensarenotdeclared
andbankaccountsinCyprusorsomewhereontheVirginIslandsarenotindicatedeither.
Butthereisnodirectrelationshiphere.Corruptionhasbecomeveryintricateandlatentand
proofsincorruptioncasesareobtainedquiterigorouslyandcarefully.Thismeansthat
consistenteffortsweretakentolookintoandfindtheproofsagainstcorruptpersons.
-Thereisawidespreadopinionthattherearefileswithincriminatingevidenceoneveryone
andaparticularfileistakenoutattherighttimeandputonthepresident'sdesk.
-Absolutenonsense!Ifsuchfilesexistandtheyshouldbecalledcases,thenthesearein
law-enforcementagencies.Perhaps,therearesuchcasesthere.Thisisevenforsureand
notjustprobably.Peoplearenotarrestedwithoutreasoninourcountry.
-WhendidyoulearnaboutthearrestofGaizer,forexample?
-Whenitwasreportedinnewsprograms.ThereportscameeitherfromtheTASSnews
wireorTVnews.AndIdon'tconsideritpossibletocommentonthiscasebecauseI
haven'tseenitandIdon'tknowthedetails.Nooneinformedmeinadvanceorconsulted
withmeaboutwheretocarryoutthisspecialoperation,ifyou'retalkingaboutthis.Don't
thinkthateverythingisdecidedintheKremlin.Muchisdecidedbutnoteverything.
Letmerepeatagain:thepresidentialadministration,indeed,analyzestheincome
declarationsofofficials,aboveall,top-levelpersons.Wecheckthecorrectnessofdata
indicatedinsuchdeclarations.Apparently,I'llspeakseparatelyonthistopicattheendof
theyeartoinformhowmanycaseswehaverevealedamongofficialssubmittinguntrue
data,whichservedasthegroundfortheirdismissalduetothelossofconfidence.Butthis
doesnotmeanthattheyarecriminalsandyoushouldn'tconfusedifferentthings.
---
Aboutwork"inthefield,"spymania,thegovernment'sfear,thesplitofelites,the
yachtofAndreiMelnichenko,sadRomanAbramovichandtheprospectsof
Transaeroairline
-Youreferredtoyourpreviousservice,asifunintentionally,alreadytwice.Imeanthe
specialservice.Doesthisexperiencehelpyouinyourcurrentwork?
-Perhaps,notverymuchnow.WhendidIquittheservice?Thiswasin2000.Afterthat,I
workedasdefenseminister,andthefirstvice-premier.Iknowasaying,although,thatthere
canbenoformerintelligenceofficers...Yes,indeed,Ispentthelargerconsciouspartofmy
lifeintheForeignIntelligenceService.Twenty-fivecalendaryearsarenojoke.Thepast
experienceundoubtedlyofferssomehelp,forinstance,wheninternationalissuesare
discussed,thankstoagoodcommandoftheEnglishlanguage.
-I'mtalkingaboutadifferentthing,aboutthemind-setandapeculiarviewontheworld.
-Maybe.Theabilitytoswitchfromonethingtoanotherandthequickreaction...
-Andwhataboutthesaying:"trustbutverify?"
-Ah,you'retalkingaboutthis.YouknowIwasengagedinpoliticalintelligenceandlargely
workedinthefieldandfinishedtheoverseaspartofmyserviceasaresident.Thisishowit
was:Ihadtotrustcomradesblindlybecausetherewerenopossibilitiestoverify.Youcan't
suspectyourcomradesbecausethisisevenworseandmoredangerous.
.Anotherthingisthatyoushouldreadpeoplewellandknowwhomyoucanrelyon.
-Butaweaklinkmaynotrevealitselfimmediately.Incidentally,theWestimposed
sanctionsagainstRussiainthehopeoftheelites'split.Itexpectedthattheclosecircleof
VladimirPutinwouldbediscontentwiththeinfringementofitsfreedomsand...Hasthis
planworked,inyourview?
-Yes,butonlyinamirror-likemanner.Itseemstomethattheeliteshavesplitabroadrather
thaninourcountry.You,perhaps,analyzethewesternmedia.Haven'tyounoticedthat
whenofficials-ministers,speakersand,allthemoreso,presidentsortheheadsof
governments-speak,theycriticizeRussiaunmercifullywithafrownontheirfacesanda
quiveringvoice.Itfollowsfromtheirspeechesthatwe'rewrongineverythingand
everywhere,inUkraine,Syriaandwhereverelse.Butwhenpoliticianswhohaveleftthe
upperechelonsofpowerforvariousreasonsstarttospeak,thetonalityoftheirspeeches
changesdramatically.Foreignanddefenseministersandotherreputablepersonswho
havelefttheirpostssuddenlybegintoopenlyshowsolidaritywithourpositiononmany
issues.Whatdoesthissuggest?Thissuggeststhatyouareobligedtotalkthiswayandno
otherwaywhileyouareinpower.Itisonlyafteryouresignthatyoucanexpressyourown
thoughtsandviews.Thisisnotforbiddenbutonlyforex-officialsandnotforpersons
holdingposts.Thosewhoreturntopower,starttocriticizeuswithanewvigor.Ihavelong
grownaccustomedtothis.Andlookatitwithhumor.
-Andwhataboutourelites?
-Whatdoyoumean?Givetheexamples.
-OnepartofthebusinesselitehasbeenhitbysanctionsduetofriendshipwithVladimir
PutinandisdeprivedofthepossibilitytogotoEuropeanduseitsmoneyandrealestate
there.Meanwhile,theworld'slargestyachtworthover$400millionissetafloatinGermany
for[Russianbillionairebusinessman]AndreiMelnichenko.Also,[Russianbillionaire]Roman
AbramovichhasbeenrejoicingatthesuccessesofhisFCChelseainLondonformany
years.
-Thisisaprovocativequestion.Whereistheconflict?Idon'tunderstand.Firstofall,about
theelites.IhavesaidonmanyoccasionsthatIdislikethiswordverymuch.Tomymind,
thiswordcanbeusedforthosewhohavedonesomethinguseful,necessaryandtangible
forthehomecountryinthecourseofseveralgenerations.Toomanyvolunteersinour
countryawardthemselveswiththistitlewithoutsufficientgroundsforthat.Thisisthefirst
generalremark.Excusemefordepartingfromthetheme.
Now,letmespeaktothepoint.Whatisthenameoftheyacht'sowner,asyousay?
-Melnichenko.
A:Wheredidyougettheinformationaboutthevessel'scost?
-Thisisanexpertestimate.TheyachtwasbuiltattheGermanshipyardNobiskrug...
-Istronglydoubtthatthisfigureistruebutthereisanotherthingthatmatters.Thequestion
iswhetherMr.Melnichenkoacquiredthisyachtwithlegallyearnedfunds.Thisisthemain
andthesolethingthatmattersforme.Iunderstandthatwealthyandsuccessfulpeopleare
dislikedandevenhatedinourcountry,unfortunately.Butifamanbuyssomethingwithhis
earnedmoney,thisishispersonalmatter.
-Iaskednotaboutaspecificyachtbutabouttherelationsbetweenthosewhocango
abroadandthosewhoaredeprivedor,tobemoreexact,limitedintheirfreedomoftravel
acrosstheworld.
-Yes,somerepresentativesofthebusinesscircles(butnotelites)havesufferedfromthe
sanctions,asyouputit.Buteverythingisrelative.Ibelieve,althoughIdonotassert,that
yachtsawayfromthem.ThisispointNo.1.Theyarestillfreetotravelaboardtheiryachts
everywheretheywant.Letmerepeatagain:theglobeisnotlimitedbytheOldandtheNew
World.ThisispointNo.2.So,don'tbothermuchaboutthem.AsforAbramovich,hisFC
ChelseahasmadeanunfortunatestartintheEnglishChampionshipandholdsaplaceat
thebottomofthetournamentstandings.Thiscanhardlypleasetheclub'sowner.Thisis
pointNo.3.ButthekeyquestionagainisthemoneywithwhichRomanAbramovichbought
theLondonteammanyyearsago.Ifthemoneyislegal,thenthethemeisclosedforme.
Asforhowsomebusinessmenlookatothersandhow,itisbettertoaddressthisquestion
everythingisunderstandabletoeveryone.Butthisismypresumption.Strictlyspeaking,in
thecontextoftheinfluenceofsanctionsonbusiness,itismoreappropriatetotalknotabout
thefreedomoftravelacrosstheworldbut,say,abouttherestrictedaccesstothecapital
market,which,indeed,hasseriouseconomicconsequencesforcompaniesincludedinthe
sanctionslists.
-Letusswitchfromyachtstoaircrafttoreducetheheatofourdiscussion.Letustalk
aboutprivateratherthanpersonalplanes.AirlineTransaerohasgonebankrupt.WillAeroflot
becomethemonopolyonthemarketafteritsdeparture?Please,answermeastheperson
whooversawthetransportsectorinthegovernmentforalongtime.Isitgoodorbad?
-Therewillbenomonopoly.EvenifAeroflothadincludedTransaeroinitsbalancesheet,
aswasplanned,itssharewouldhavebeenfrom48to52percentonthemarket.Butthe
dealfellthrough.Thegovernmentisnowconsideringotheroptions.Transaeromanagers
arelargelytoblamethemselves:theywerewrongwiththebusinessstrategy,tookplanes
onleaseforforeigncurrencyandthentherubleplummetedandtheygotintothissituation.
Itisn'tthestatethatistoblameforthis.WesupportedTransaeroasanationalairlinefora
longtimeandnowitisimportantthatpassengersand,ofcourse,theairline'sstaff-pilots,
stewardessesandgroundpersonnel-shouldnotsufferfromthis.Meanwhile,the
enlargementofcompaniesisworldpractice.Perhaps,youknowthattheDutchKLMisnow
partofAirFrancewhiletheScandinavianSAShasbeenmergedintoLufthansawhilethe
SpanishIberiafailedtolivethroughthepreviouscrisis.Weakoperatorsaretakenoveror
swallowedup.Thishappenseverywhere.ButAeroflotsurelywon'tbethesoleplayeron
thedomesticmarket.
-ButnooneencroachesonthemonopolyofRussianRailways(RZD).Itistrue,though,
thatRZDHeadVladimirYakuninwhoseemedtoholdhispostfirmlyhadtoresign.
-AsfarasIknow,theresignationwasdiscussedforsometimeandwasnosurprisefor
Yakunin.Asforhisplanstobecomeasenatorandthenhisdecisiontogiveuptheseplans,
thisishispersonalmatter.
OlegBelozyorovbecametheRZDheadinAugustandrecentlyinformedPrimeMinister
DmitryMedvedevthatthecompanyplannedtoreachabreakevenpointinsuburbanrailway
communicationin2015.Forthefirsttimeever!Earlier,billionsofrubleswerespentin
subsidesfromthefederalbudgetonthis.
Therearealotofproblemsinthesector.RailwaycarriagetariffsremainveryhighandI
wouldsayexcessivelyhigh.Asaresult,wehavehugeimbalances.Businessmentryto
transportanycargobyroad.Itcomestoabsurditywhenmetalandcoalaretransportedby
truckstoadistanceofseveralhundredkilometers.Thisisbecauseyoudon'thavetopay
fortheoperationofhighwaysandeverythingisforfree.Nowwe'llfinallystartcollectinga
feefromtruckswithaweightofover12tons.Theydamagetheroadbedverymuch!
Incidentally,Irecollectedthatintheearly2000wediscussedaproposalinthegovernment
onintroducingtollhighways.Thereweresomanyheateddebates.Thequestionwasabout
whetheritwasnecessarytochargeafeefromdrivers.MostoftheCabinetmembersdid
notsupportme.Ihadtoexplainandproveeverything.DidyourideinSheremetyevoalong
thenewsectionofafutureMoscow-Petersburgtollroad?Ittakesyoujustfiveminutesto
arrive.Noweachpersonisfreetochoose:eithertopay100rublesforthespeedand
convenienceormoveslowlyintrafficjams.Weliveinafreecountry...
-Incidentally,abouttheairports.WhatcausedyourcriticisminPetropavlovsk-Kamchatski
whenyoulashedattheheadsofDalspetsstroi[theFarEasternbranchoftheFederal
AgencyforSpecialConstruction]asyoutalkedbeforeTVcameras.Wereyousostruckby
thedisruptionofthelocalportreconstruction?
-Everythingcanbeunderstoodincomparison.IrememberthatIusedtoflytoVladivostok
asthedefenseministerwhentheaerodromebelongedtothePacificFleet.Youcouldn't
lookwithouttearsatit:ashedandabadlandingstripmadeofconcreteplates.Andlookat
theairportbuiltnowthere.OrinYekaterinburg.InSochi,Novosibirsk.I'mmentioningthe
facilitiesfrommemory.Thislistcanbecontinued.AsfarasIremember,wehaveinvested
over380billionrublesinthereconstructionofairportsinthepasttenyears,includinglarge
aerodromes.Ofthissum,about250billionrubleswereinvestedfromthebudget.
ItisnotthemoneythatisaprobleminKamchatka.Thefundsfortheconstructionofthe
secondstripwereallocatedinfull.Thenewtakeoffandlandingstripwasbuiltayearago
butplanescan'ttakeofforlandbecausethereisnoflightcontroltowerthere.Theschedule
offinishingtheconstructionworkwasdelayedbyabouteightmonths.WhenIlearntabout
thisinPetropavlovsk,Idecidedtolookintothematter.Ingeneral,theproblemistypicaland
itrepeatsinminiaturewhatishappeningattheconstructionsiteoftheVostochny
cosmodrome.Budgetfundswereallocated,contractorsreceivedassignmentsbutoneof
themtookthemoneyanddisappearedonthevastexpensesofRussiaorevenperhapsleft
thecountry.
SoIhadtoreprimandthem,toputitdelicately.AndnowIreceivereportseverytendayson
thepaceofconstruction.Dalspetsstroiiscompletingworksinthebuildingoftheflight
controlcentre.InearlyNovember,specialistsofAlmaz-Anteycompanywillstartinstalling
moderntechnologicalequipmentforairtrafficcontrol.Theequipmenthasbeenpurchased
andonlyhastobeinstalled.
Asaresult,afteraone-yeardelay,Kamchatkaresidentsand,Ihope,mostRussianswho
wanttogettothesebeautifulplaceswillbeabletousethenewairport.IlikeKamchatka
verymuchandconsideritoneoftheworld'swonders.
-Willyougotoaccepttheworks?
-Probably.ButatfirstI'llwaitforareportthateverythingisfinishedandreadyforoperation.
---
Ongeneralshoulderstraps,retirementat47,thesnowsofKilimanjaro,traitor
Gordievskyandhumanweaknesses
-Speakingabouttransportandroads...doyouhaveacar?
-Idon'tneedone.Honestly,Iamusinganofficialcar.IgaveupdrivinglongagowhenI
becameasubjectofstateprotectionin1999.
ButIlikeddriving.IhadaVolgaGaz24madeforexportandcoatedwithleadoxide.Agood
car!AndIputmanykilometersonthatvehicle,some300,000.OnceItookadrivefrom
MoscowtoPetrozavodsk.Withoutrefueling.IhadahybridVolgacarusingbothpetroleum
andnaturalgas.Youknow,thosespecialtanksinthetrunk?Icoulddrivehalfwaywithgas
andtheneasilyswitchtopetroleumanddroveforanother500kilometerscastingsuperior
glancesatlonglinesatafewpetrolstations.Ihadtherighttofeelfairpride.EventuallyI
honestlyearnedmoneytobuytheRussiancar-makingmarvelwhileservingtheMotherland
abroad.
-Mr.Ivanov,I'venoticedthatyoualmostneverwearmilitaryuniform.ButonMay9thisyear
yousuddenlyappearedincolonelgeneral'sjacket...
Ihavewornuniforminpublictwiceinmylife.Iamstressing-inpublic.Thefirsttimewasin
2000whenthe55thanniversaryoftheVictorywascelebrated.IservedasRussian
SecurityCouncilsecretaryatthattime.AndthesecondtimewaslastMayasyoujust
noted.VictoryDayisasacredholidayforme,asformanyourcompatriots.AsIhada
directattitudetoservice,althoughitwasnotarmyservice,Ideemeditpossibletowear
uniform.
I'vebeenretiredsince2000.WhenIwasSecurityCouncilsecretaryVladimirPutinsaidmy
candidacywasconsideredforthepostofdefenseminister.AtthattimeIwasaspecial
servicegeneralandtoldthepresidentIdeemeditwrong.Inmyopinion,anintelligence
officer,aservingone,notaretiredone,cannotheadthearmedforces.
-Andwhat'stheproblem?
-Canyouimagineapolicegeneralcomeandstartcommandingtheforeignintelligence
service(SVR)?Icannotpicturethis.Wehavewrittenandunwrittenrules,someethicsof
relationsbetweenrepresentativesofdifferentservicesandtroops.It'shardtoexplainthisto
acivilian.
-ButSergeyShoigu,theEmergenciesMinistry'sGeneraloftheArmy,movedtoArbat
Squareandthat'sfine.
-AfterleavingtheEmergenciesMinistry,SergeyShoigususpendedservice.Heworkedas
theMoscowRegion'sgovernorforsixmonthsandonlythenbecamedefenseminister.All
islogical.
So,backin2000Ihadnodoubtsthataspecialservicesofficershouldnotheadother
'institutionofforce'.AndIamstillconvincedinthis.Therefore,ItoldPresidentPutinthen
thatI'dliketoretireforthesakeofsoonestadaptationatmynewposition.VladimirPutin
agreedwiththislogicandsignedmyresignation,because,asyouknow,hehadalso
workedfortheforeignintelligenceservice.
Soattheageof47IbecameamilitaryretireeandIstillamandevengettinggood
retirementbenefits.Alongwithmysalaryofapresidentialstaffofficial.
I'venowturnedtopastandrecalledaconversationwithGeorgeW.Bushwhenhecameto
St.Petersburgintheearly2000s.WeweretakingarivercruisealongtheNeva,standing
onthedeckandIpointedatthefamous"BigHouse"onLiteinyavenue,theformerKGB
headquartersinLeningradandthecurrentFSBheadquarters.Itoldhim,"Seethewindow
ontheseventhfloor?It'stheofficewherePutinandIstartedourprofessionalcareeras
youngoperatives."
-Didyoushareoneoffice?
-Neighboringones.
AndBushsaidinreply,"Sergey,youmustknowthatmyfatherwasaCIAdirectorforalong
whileandthenbecameUSpresident.SothefatheralwaystoldmethatLangley,notthe
WhiteHouse,wasthemostinterestingperiodinhislife."
-Areyoureadytosubscribetothesewords?
-Fortunately,IhavenothingtodobothwiththeWhiteHouseandLangley,butIenjoyedmy
intelligenceservice.AndIthinkIwasdoingwell.Butit'sbettertoassessfromtheoutside.
-OnceyouquotedKissingerinthisregard...
-Hesaidthateverydecentguyshouldstartcareerwitharmyorsecretservices.Istarted
withsecond.Kissingerisagiantofaman,averyinterestinginterlocutorandIdorespect
himendlessly.BeforeIwasbannedentrytotheUSoversanctions,Imethimtheremany
timesandKissingereveninvitedmetohisNewYorkapartment.Andwhentheformer
secretaryofstatevisitsMoscow,Itrynottomissachancetomeetwithhim.
Butofcourse,wedon'ttalkaboutintelligencework.
-Mr.Ivanov,youhaveaperfectsurnameforaspy,whichmakesiteasytomixwiththe
crowd.
-I'lltellyouafunnystory.WhenIservedasRussiandefenseministerintheearly2000s,I
oftencametoLondonandBritishjournalistsalwaystoldme,"Butyouweredeportedfrom
England!"Iwasreallysurprised.AndthenIlearnedthatsomeIvanovSergeyBorisovich
hadbeendeported,indeed.Buthewasbornin1952andIwasbornin1953.Mynamesake
gotinamessinBritain.Suchanoddcoincidence!
Asformysurname,Ivanovismyfather's.Mymother'ssurnamewasPetukhov.
So,I'veconfessedeverything.
-Andwhywon'tyoustubbornlynamethecountrieswhereyouserved?
-Ofcourse,thisisnobigsecrettodaybutnoonehascanceledcertainethics.Underthe
lawallintelligencesecretscanbedisclosedonlyafter75years.Mytimehasnotcomeyet.
-Icanquoteyourinterviewgiven15yearsago,"IsawKilimanjarobutIwon'ttellyoufrom
whichside."Justtrytoguess-fromKenyaorfromTanzania.
-AndIcanrepeatitnow.ButI'lladdthatIsawthemountainfrombothsides...Asyousee,I
don'trejectwhatIsaidanddon'tdeceiveanyone.
-DidyoufollowinHemingway'sfootstepstothesnowsofKilimanjaro?
-Iwasnotatourist,Iwasworkingthere.ButIsometimesthinkofthoseplaces,indeed.
Theyareworthvisiting.EastAfrica-Kenya,Tanzania,Uganda-areknownfortheir
amazingnationalparkswherepredatorsandotheranimalsliveintheirnaturalhabitatand
walkatlargewhilepeoplearewatchingthemfromarespectfuldistance.Thosesightsare
sealedinmemoryforever.
ButwhereandhowIworkedisnotforthemedia,I'msorry.Ofcourse,somethingsarewell
knownasIdidn'tconcealthem.I'vealreadytoldyouthatpoliticalintelligencewasmy
specializationandIwasfocusedontheWest.IendedmyserviceabroadasaKGB
residentandthenworkedasfirstdeputyheadoftheSVREuropeanintelligence
department.
-Onceyou'vementionedthatyoufacedbetrayalwhichaffectedyourcareer.What'sitall
about?
-Icantellyounow...IknewamannamedGordievsky.Ifhecanbecalledaman,ofcourse.
IcannotsaythathisshamefulbetrayalandrecruitmentbytheBritishintelligenceservice
brokemylifebutIgotcertainproblemsatwork.Roughlyspeaking,Gordievskyturnedme
in.Afterthat,Ihadsomeforeignassignmentsbutinotherlocations.
SincethenIfeelagreataversiontotreasons.Thereweretraitorsinintelligenceintheearly
1990s.Ifyouremember,agroupofsleeperagentshassufferedrecently...Itisfairtosay
thatCIAandFBIalsohaddefectorstoourside.Secretservicesneversleep.
Youknow,you'veaskedwhatmarksmypreviousjobleftonme.Idon'tlikelong,ponderous
andoff-the-pointanswerstosimplequestions.Intelligenceworkrequiresprecisionand
specifics.AndIamaquitepragmaticpersonbynature.Thereismuchworktodo,why
wouldIwastemyandotherpeople'stime?Whenapersonismakingalongand
monotonousspeechaboutsomethingforhalfanhourandyoucanunderstandnothingof
whathe'ssaying,youunwittinglygetirritated.Whyjustdon'tadmitthatyoudon'tknowthe
answerand,therefore,keepdrawingcirclesintheair?
Nobodycanknoweverything.Ihaveneverbeenafraidoftellingaprofessionalthathe
knowsthesubjectbetter.Thereisnothingshamefulaboutit.It'snormal!Teachingfishto
swimwillnevercometomymind.Orgivingadvicetothecoachhowheshouldtrainthe
teamaheadofadecisivematch.
-Well,yes,Mr.Ivanov,youareasportslover.
-Whatdoes"lover"mean?AsanormalSovietchild,Iplayedfootball,hockey,volleyball,
handballandonceeventriedtoplaywaterpolo,whichalmostkilledme.That'sahorsey
sport,excusemyFrench.Oneshouldbeverystrongtoenduresuchloads.AndIwasnot
eveninmybestyears.Itriedtoplaygolflaterbutitdidn'tgowell.Everythingneedstime,no
successcomesatonce.Iwasplayingbasketballforawhileandevenachievedcertain
resultsbutsufferedanankleinjuryandhadtobecomeafanlongago.
-Anardentone.YouevenrememberChelsea'stableposition,asfarasIknow.
-Idon'tfollowtheEnglishchampionshipintentionallybutifIflipthroughSportExpressdaily
inthecarIlookattheresults.ButIamaCSKAfan.Inallsports-football,hockey,
basketball.
And,ofcourse,theRussianteamledbyLeonidSlutskyhasmademyday.Webroke
throughtoEuro2016whenallchancesseemedtobelost.IwasattheOtkritiyeArenato
supporttheteamatthematchwithMontenegrowhenthestadiumwasfull.
-HowshallwedivideLeonidSlutskybetweenthenationalteamandtheclub?
-Thecoachisneitherawardrobe,norasackofpotatoes...Slutskyisanunusualcoach.I
guessnoonealreadydoubtshisprofessionalism.Rememberthoseclamorsagainstthe
combinationofpositions.AndtwomonthslaterCSKAareevidentleadersoftheRussian
footballchampionshipsandthenationalteamwonfourstraightvictoriesandqualifiedfor
theFrenchtournamentwithoutplay-offs.Whatotherreasonsareneeded?Beforetheend
oftheRussianchampionships,thenationalteamhastoholdtwoshortgatheringsandplay
friendlymatches.That'sall!Whatistheproblem?I'vealreadyexpressedmyopinion:Ithink
SlutskyshouldstayatCSKAbytheendoftheseasonandthentheRussianFootballUnion
shouldagreeonLeonid'scontractbailout.Morereasoningwillfollow.Butit'suptoVitaly
Mutko.
-CSKAPresidentYevgenyGinersaidthatSlutsky'scontractisworthabilliondollars.
-Oneshouldunderstandjokes!IhopeVitalyMutkowillcometotermswithYevgenyGiner...
Ginerisareasonableandsoundperson,althoughhecanbetoughandshrewd.Thisis
normal.That'shischaracter.Whensomeonesayshehasnofaults,it'salarming.Itmeans
heismistakenorwantstohidesomething.Asuspicionsituation,don'tyouthink?
[returntoContents]
#2
Government.ru
October17,2015
DmitryMedvedev'sinterviewwithVestivSubbotu(NewsonSaturday)programmebythe
Rossiyatelevisionnetwork
DmitryMedvedevspokewithVestivSubbotuhostSergeiBrilyovonthesituationinSyria.
Transcript:
SergeiBrilyov:MrMedvedev,thankyoufortakingafewminutestotalkwithus.I'maware
thatyoucameherestraightfromameetingofthePresidiumofthePresidentialCouncilfor
EconomicModernisationandInnovativeDevelopment.
DmitryMedvedev:Yes,themeetinghasjustfinished.
SergeiBrilyov:Unfortunately,myquestionisnotaboutanythingmodern,butrather,thewell-
knownarchaicdevelopmentsthatarehappeninginworldpolitics.I'mreferringtotheUnited
StatesrefusingtoaccepttheRussiandelegation,ledbyyou,especiallyasyouhavegood
personalrelationswithPresidentObama.Wereyousurprised?Whatwasyourreaction?
DmitryMedvedev:Ithinkthatpersonalrelationsdon'thaveanythingtodowithit.National
interestsalwaysprevail.Whathappened?Amajorconflicthasbrokenout,anditmustbe
addressed.However,thecurrentUSadministrationhasreactedinafairlystrangemanner.
Bytheway,itisroutinelyblamedforthingsthatitcan'taffordtoallowitself,suchas
weakness,indecisionandincompetence.Ontopofthis,itisblamedfornottaking
appropriatemeasurestoupholditspriorities.I'mnotsureifthisisthecase,it'suptothem
todecide.Butjudgingbythestatementsthatweremadethisweek,includingbysome
WhiteHouseclerks,itseemstobetrue.
LetmegiveyouaquickrecapoftheSyrianevents.Aconflictbegantherein2010-2011.
Ourinitialpositionwastorefrainfromtakinganydecisionsaimedatunderminingthe
authorityofthecurrentSyriangovernment.Next,the"IslamicState",orISIS,becamea
problem.TheAmericansproposeddealingwiththiseviljointly.Wesaidyes,wethinkit's
therightthingtodo,andwearewillingtodoit.Thequestionishow.AfterISISbeganto
spreadlikeacancerthroughouttheMiddleEast,wetoldthemthatwewerewillingtojoin
thecombinedanti-terroristefforts.However,todoso,weneedamandatefromtheSyrian
government.Ourcountryobtainedsuchamandateintheformofacorrespondingrequest
bySyria'sPresidental-Assad.Therefore,wehavethenecessarylegalgroundstofight
terrorisminthatcountry.Buthowshouldwegoaboutthisfight?Inordertofightanyone,
youneedtounderstandwhothetargetis.InacollaborativeeffortwiththeSyrianleaders,
wehaveidentifiedseveraltargets.TheCommander-in-Chiefmadeanappropriatedecision,
andthearmedforcesbegantheiroperations.TheAmericansaredisgruntled.Theyare
tellingusthateitherthestrikesorthetargetsarewrong.Toourlegitimaterequeststo
provideuswiththecorrecttargets,theysaytheywon'tdothat.Wesayokay,butthenat
leastshowuswhichtargetsweshouldnotattack,andtheycomebackwiththesame
answer.Whatkindofcooperationisthat?
TheRussianPresidentdecidedtocomeupwithaproposaltoholdconsultationswith
them.Thefactis,ourUScolleagueskeeptellingusthatthisproblemshouldbeaddressed
inacomprehensivemanner,andthatit'simperativethatweagreeonSyria'sfuture,
discussthefateofPresidental-Assadandresolvethesituationpolitically.Wehaveno
objectionstothat-hence,theideaofapoliticaldelegationincludingspecificmembers.
Suchadelegationwouldbeinapositiontodiscussavarietyofissues,rangingfromthe
militaryallthewaytopoliticalangles,focusingonanationaldialogueandsettlement.This
seemstomakesense.However,theUSadministrationcamebackwithacounterintuitive
response,sayingthattheydon'tneedit,becauseRussiaisbehavingincorrectly,andsuch
adialogueisimpossible.Thisisthesituation.
SergeiBrilyov:WhenwasRussia'sproposaltosendadelegationledbyyoutotheUnited
Statesmadepublic?
DmitryMedvedev:Itwasquiterecently,soonafterthestartofthecorrespondingphaseof
themilitaryoperation.
SergeiBrilyov:NotinNewYorkduringtheconsultations?
DmitryMedvedev:No,notinNewYork.Webehavedlikepartnersinthissense.The
Presidentspokewithhisoppositenumber,andconsultationswereheldatthelevelof
foreignministers.Butthismessagewassentafterthemilitaryoperationshadbegun.
SergeiBrilyov:I'mgoingtoaskyouasomewhatunrelatedquestion.Wehavenever
discusseditwithyoubefore.YouareoriginallyfromLeningrad,nowStPetersburg.Ihope
youlikethemoviePokrovskyGateswhichissetinMoscow?
DmitryMedvedev:Ido,justlikeanyothergoodSovietfilm.
SergeiBrilyov:There'salinewherethemaincharacter-Kostik-askssomeoneto
describehisfeelings.Hesays,"Whatdothesepeoplemakeyoufeel?"Wait,I'veeven
copiedthislinefromthescripttomakesureIgotitright.
DmitryMedvedev:Well,it'saclassicofRussianfilm,soquotingitisappropriate.
SergeiBrilyov:Yes,hereyougo.Here'swhathesays,"Isitfrustration,sympathy,
compassion,or,perhaps,fondness?"AndI'dadd,perhaps,disappointment?
DmitryMedvedev:AreyoutalkingabouttheUSactions...
SergeiBrilyov:YourattitudetowardstheAmericans.
DmitryMedvedev:Youknow,I'llputitthisway:Ithinkit'sfoolishbehavior.Bymakingsuch
decisionsorrefusingtotalk,theAmericansaresimplyshowingtheirweakness.Afterall,
everyonecanseethattheiractivitiesinthisregiontocombatISIShaveamountedto
practicallynothing,andISIScontinuestospread.OnlyRussia'sinvolvementhaschanged
thesituation.Still,theysaythattheywon'ttalkwithus.This,Ibelieve,isashortsightedand
weakposition,becausestrongandresponsibleleadersandstatesacceptofferstohold
talkseveninsituationswherethepartiesmayseethingsdifferently.Inanycase,wenever
avoidedtalks.Let'swaitandsee.AsourPresidentsaid,weareopentodiscussany
issues,andI'mheretosayitagain.
SergeiBrilyov:Here'smylastquestionaboutthis.Therewasafeelingthatthepeoplewith
whomyouweresupposedtogotoWashington-representativesoftheGeneralStaffand
theDefenceMinistry-weregoingtheretodiscusspurelymilitarymatters.However,since
thedelegationwastobeledbyyou,youwereboundtodiscusswaystoachievepolitical
settlement.Isthatright?
DmitryMedvedev:That'sexactlywhatourUScolleaguessaidinasurprisedtone,"So,you
wanttodiscusspoliticalissues?"Indeed,Russia,theUnitedStates,andallotherstates
thathaveastakeinseeingpeaceinthisregionandinSyria,andastronggovernment,too,
shouldbediscussingpreciselypoliticalissues.Itdoesn'treallymatterwhowillbeatthe
helm.Wedon'twantISIStorunSyria,dowe?Itshouldbeacivilisedandlegitimate
government.Thisiswhatweneedtodiscuss.
SergeiBrilyov:So,itdoesn'thavetobeBasharal-Assad?Russiaisoftenaccusedtodayof
protectingnotitself,butBasharal-Assad.
DmitryMedvedev:No,absolutelynot.It'suptotheSyrianpeopletodecidewhowillbethe
headofSyria.Bytheway,Syriaisamultiethnic,multi-faithandafairlycomplexnation.It's
uptothepeopletodecide.Atthemoment,weoperateonthepremisethatal-Assadisthe
legitimatepresident.ImaybeoneofthefewwhowasinSyriabeforethewar,andsaw
whatSyriawaslikebeforethewar.Icantellyouthatitwasastrongandquitemodern
state...
SergeiBrilyov:Well,notwithoutauthoritarianism,butpeaceful.
DmitryMedvedev:Yes,apeacefulstate,absolutelyright.Monumentswerenotdestroyed
there,andtheeconomywasgood.Now,ithasbecomeamess.Thisisthemost
unpleasantoutcomeoftherecentdevelopments.So,ofcourse,wearenotfightingtoback
specificleaders.Ontheonehand,wearedefendingournationalinterests.ThePresident
saidthatifwedon'tdestroytheseterroriststhere,theywillcometoRussia.Ontheother
hand,wereceivedarequestforhelpfromlegitimateSyrianauthorities.Thisiswherewe
proceedfrom.
SergeiBrilyov:So,we'llbewaitingfortheAmericanstocometotheirsenses?
DmitryMedvedev:We'llseewhatkindofdecisionstheyaregoingtomake.Anyway,I
reiterate:Clearly,ourcountryhasmadethefirststepinthisarea,andweareopento
dialogue.
SergeiBrilyov:Thankyou,MrMedvedev.
[returntoContents]
#3
AlJazeera
www.aljazeera.com
October16,2015
PutinshowshisrealisminSyria
AlackofmoderateSyrianoppositionforceshasforcedWashingtontogivetacitconsentto
Russianintervention.
ByAnatolLieven
AnatolLievenisaprofessoratGeorgetownUniversityinQatarandavisitingprofessorat
King'sCollegeLondon.
TheRussiangovernmenthasanumberofdifferentmotivesforitsinterventioninthe
conflictinSyria.Amongthesearethedesiretohelpanoldally,tobeseenoncemoreasa
greatpowerontheworldstage,andestablishapositionthatwillforceUSandEuropean
leaderstotreatRussia'sviewswithgreaterrespect,especiallyovertheUkrainecrisis.
Russia'sstrategy,however,alsostemsfromaparticularanalysisofthesituationinSyria
basedonamixtureofhard-headedrealismandtheexperienceofovertwodecadessince
thefallofcommunism.TheRussiananalysisisthattheUSstrategyofarmingandbuilding
uptheSyrian"moderateopposition"neverstoodanychanceofsuccessandhasnowbeen
recognisedbythePentagonasafailedstrategy.Also,underthesecircumstances,ifthe
BaathstateinDamascusisoverthrown,theresultwillbe,atbest,long-termanarchyand
atworst:atakeoverbytheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL)andal-Qaeda.
ReminiscentofWesterntactics
Moscowhas,therefore,decidedtoprovidetheSyrianstateanditsHezbollahandKurdish
allieswithaRussianairforce,inthesameway(intheviewofRussianofficials)theUS
providedanairforcefortheLibyanoppositionin2011,theNorthernAllianceinAfghanistan
in2001,theKosovoLiberationArmyin1999,andtheCroatianarmyin1995.
ThisRussiandecisioncamewhenitdidbecauseSyrianstateforcesseemedtobe
crumblinginthefaceofISILattacks,andalsobecausethestateofUSpolicyandinterests
havemadeithighlyunlikelythattheUSwoulddoanythingtoblockRussia'sactions.
Onthelastpoint,Russiananalysishasalreadybeenshowntobeentirelycorrect.Thisis
becauseUSofficialsarenowfacedwithaninterlockingsetofseeminglyimpossible
dilemmasintheMiddleEast.Forobviousreasons,ISILhasnowjoinedal-Qaeda,bythe
US'thinking,asposingbyfarthegreatestthreatofterrorismagainsttheUSandEurope.In
Iraq,thishasledtowhatamountstoUS-IraniancooperationinsupportingtheShia-
dominatedIraqigovernmentagainstISIL.ThishasalsocontributedtotheObama
administration'snucleardealwithIran.
Inthekindofsimplestrategiccalculationsbelovedbyinternationalrelationsstudents(and
whichactuallyhappenedonoccasionsduringtheColdWar),theUSwouldsimplymove
overtowardsanalliancewithIran,HezbollahandtheSyrianstateintheregion.Butthisis
obviouslyimpossibleformultiplereasons:ItwouldcosttheUSitsalliancewithSaudi
Arabia,theGulfStatesandTurkey-withdangerousimplicationsforthewiderstruggle
againstterrorism.
Washingtonis,therefore,leftwithasetofessentiallycontradictoryinterestsandpoliciesin
theregion.Indeed,andverylargelybecauseofpastUSactions,theMiddleEasthas
developedsuchcomplexandheavily-armedconflictsthatnostablehegemonyoverthe
regioniscurrentlypossible.
Tacitconsent
Underthesecircumstances,todestroytheSyriangovernmentandarmywouldriskplaying
disastrouslyintothehandsofISILandal-Qaeda.Theseanalystsfullyrecognisetheodious
recordoftheSyrianstate-buttheconceptof"oursonofab***h"isnomorealientothe
CIAthanitistotheKGB.
ThedevelopmentofthiskindofthinkingintheWestbringstheseanalystsclosertoan
underlyingfeatureofRussiananalysis(alsosharedbymanyothersinBeijing,Delhiand
elsewhere),thatinmanypartsoftheworld,states-notregimes,butstates-arefarmore
fragileentitiesthanmostWesternthinkinghasassumed.Veryoften,regimesandstates
areoneandthesamething,sothatifyoubringdownone,youalsodestroytheother.The
consequencesofthis-especiallyinaneraofinternationalterroristsseekingsafehavensin
ungovernedterritories-maybemuchworsethanleavingadictatorshipinpower.
Thisthinkinghasitsrootsinhistoricalmemoriesofpastperiodsofchaosintheirown
countries.Itisclosetotheoldsaying-initsdifferentforms-that:"Adayofanarchyis
worsethanahundredyearsoftyranny".IntheviewofMoscow,theexamplesof
Afghanistansince1992,Iraqsince2003,andLibyasince2011haveprovedthisargument
sodefinitivelythatnofurtherdiscussionisnecessary.
Acertainmoodis,therefore,growinginWashingtontoletMoscowpursueitsinterventionin
Syriaandgarneralltheresultingrisksandunpopularity,while,perhapsinthewiderscheme
ofthings,alsoservinglong-termUSinterests.AmongtheserisksfortheRussian
governmentarethattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmayturnagainstthisintervention,
which-accordingtoopinionpolls-theyseemtoviewinaverydifferentlighttoMoscow's
strategyinUkraine.IfWashingtonhadarealandviablechoiceinthematter,thismightwell
bedescribedasadreadfullycynicalUSapproach.ButdoesWashingtonhaveachoice?
[returntoContents]
#4
TheIndependent(UK)
October19,2015
Putin'saimisclear:torestoretheprincipleofsovereigntytointernationalaffairs
TheRussianPresidenthastwomessages-oneforhisaudienceathome,oneforthe
West
ByVladislavLInozemtsev
VladislavL.InozemtsevPh.D.(Econ.)isSeniorVisitingFellowwiththeCenterforStrategic
andInternationalStudiesinWashington(DC)andProfessorattheHigherSchoolof
EconomicsinMoscow
Contrarytoreceivedwisdom,Russia'smilitaryactioninSyriaposesnobigthreattothe
existingglobalorder.ItwaspureVladimirPutin,ofcourse:precededbythelackofany
militarybuild-up,discussedsecretlywithWesternleaders,andlaterapprovedbythe
parliamentinminutes.Infactitmay,undersomecircumstances,evenhelpsustainit.
WhatdistinguishesRussia'sactionsinSyriafromthoseundertakeninCrimeaandinthe
easternpartsofUkraine,isaboveallitsinstitutionalizedcharacter.Whatevermaybesaid
aboutMrPutin'slong-termgoals,thecurrentsituationlooksperfectlyclear:acountry
(Russia)beingaskedbyaforeigngovernment(Syria)thathasbeencons ideredlegitimate
fordecadesandthatisrepresentedintheUNandotherinternationalorganizations,to
providemilitaryassistance,foranailingregime.AnysuggestionthattheRussianairforcehit
notsomuchtheIslamicState'smilitantsbutBasharal-Assad'spoliticalantagonistsare
senseless:theyaredoingexactlywhattheSyriandictatorisaskingfor,andnotsomething
else.RussiansbelievethatMrAssad'senemiesaretheirtargets,sinceMoscowand
Damascusareallies-andthisissufficientgroundsfortheinvolvement.
ButwhatistherealcauseofRussia'sengagementinSyria,thedeeperreasonforMrPutin
tosendhisservicemenoverseas?Therearetwoelementsoftheanswer:ontheonehand,
heshowshisfellowcitizensthatRussiamayactindifferentpartsoftheworld,itisstrong
andpowerful,andmayconstrainterroristsontheother,hewantstosendasignaltothe
West.
It'scrucialthattheWestcarefullyreadswhatthissignalmeans-becauseglobalpoliticsfor
theforeseeablefuturewilldependonhowthatmessageisdecrypted.Iwouldarguethatthe
mostwidespreadexplanation-thatMrPutinwishestostrikeanewdealwiththeUSand
Europe,theoneunderwhichhewillhelptheWesttofightIslamicextremistsinexchange
forforgettingaboutUkraine-maybemisleading.Ofcourse,theKremlinisnotsonaveas
tobelievethatthemajorpowerswillbecomeaccustomedtotheexistenceofanunstable
Ukrainianstate,plaguedbyRussian-ledseparatists,onEurope'sborders.MrPutin's
messageseemstoaddressanotherissue,quitedifferentfromtheestablishmentofCold-
War-like"spheresofinterests"inthe21st-Centuryworld.
Howeverprovocativeitmaylook,it'sallaboutthefoundationsofthecurrentglobalsystem,
andfirstofall,abouttheprinciplesofsovereigntyandnon-interference.InmyviewMrPutin
isactuallyconcernedbyoneissuealone-thatofhisownpositionasRussia'slifetime
paramountleader.Hecaresmoreandmoreabouttheglobalorderinwhich,asheseesit,
theprinciplesofsovereigntyarenolongerrespected.Herealisesthatinrecentyearsthe
WestmadeahugeadvancetowardsRussia'sbordersbyenlargingNATOandtheEUthat
iteitherdestroyedsomeautocraticregimesorseducedthemtobecomemoreco-op-
erativethattheUSisbuildingnew"coalitionsofthewilling"whichmaytoppleanypolitical
leadertheychoose.
WhatRussiaisdefendinginSyriaisnotactuallyBasharal-Assad'sregime.Norisitfighting
theglobalterroristnetwork.Moscowistodayattemptingtore-establishitsownnotionof
sovereigntythatwasthecommononejustseveraldecadesago.Takingthisintoaccount,
theWestperhapsoughttorethinkitsstrategytowardsRussia,tryingtosmoothrelations
butstoppingshortofengaginginaseriesoftrade-offswithMoscow.
InrecentdecadesboththeWestandRussiamadestrategicmovesthatwerenot
welcomedbytheotherside.TheUSandNATObackedthesecessionofKosovoin1999,
andthenrecognizedthebreak-upprovinceasasovereignstate.TheRussiansactuallydid
exactlythesamein2008inGeorgia,usingtheverysamerhetori cofhumanitarian
intervention.Thesetwocaseswerehighlydisruptiveforthecurrentinternationalregime-
butnoonecalledforaninternationalconferenceorconventionondebating,andfinally
legitimizing,humanitarianinvolvement.In2003,theUSorganizedacoalitionforwaginga
waragainstIraq,sayingthatthisstatedevelopedachemicalweaponsprogram-aclaim
thatwasnotprovedlatersincethen,similarcoalitionswereorganizedinsupportofanti-
governmentforcesinbothLibyaandnowSyria.Russiabelievedthiswasacomplete
destructionofthetraditionalnotionofstatesovereignty-andinsomepartitbecamean
excuseforneglectingthesovereignpowersofacountryintrouble.
InthecaseofCrimeain2014,MoscowactedinwayssimilartotheWest-butwhilethe
Westernpowersdecidedtotopplethegovernmentsofunstablenations,Russianleaders
preferredtooccupy(formallyornot)somepartsoftheirterritory.Ofcourse,Russia'sacti-
onswerearudeviolationofinternationallaw,buttheWesterninterventionscouldhardlybe
calledlegitimateeither.Andnowsomethingshouldbedonetostopthisracetowardthe
completedestructionoftheinternationalorder.
Toreiterate,manypoliticiansbelieve,thatMrPutinwantstoexchangesomeconcessions
inSyriaforthesameinUkraine:e.g.,RussiastopssupportingBasharal-Assad,andthe
WestagreeswithRussianoccupationofCrimea.Inthiscase,however,theresultwillbe
onlythelegitimationofillegitimateactionsindifferentpartsoftheglobe,attributedtosome
greatpower's"sphereofinterest".Inreturnforbetterconcessions,theWestshould
changetheagendacompletely.
Itshouldagreethatthetraditionalsenseofsovereigntymustberespected,andtherefore
Mral-AssadmightbeconsideredSyria'slegitimateruler,andsometerritoriesofhisstate
mightbeseenasviolentlyannexedbyeithertheIslamicStateorsomeotherrebelgroups.
TheterritorialintegrityofSyriashouldbeproclaimedindivisible,andtheWestoughtnotonly
tosupportRussia'sactions,butproposetobuildacoalitionunderRussianleadership
(sinceeverybodynowshouldacknowl edgethattheRussiansaredoingtheirjobinSyria
quiteeffectively).
Allthismayhappen,ofcourse,onlyifMoscowrethinksitsactionsinUkraine.IfRussia
wantstokeepBasharal-Assadinpower,theWestcouldreconsideritssupportforanti-go-
vernmentforcesinSyria,butsubordinatethistothewithdrawalofMoscow'sbackingforthe
Donbassseparatists.
Suchanewdealmightbeputforwardinaveryclearform:theUSandEuropeagreethat
Syriashouldberebuildunderthecurrentruler,whateverthehumanrightsconsequences
maybe(theycannotbemuchworsethantheyaretoday).So,theglobalpowersconfirm
thesovereignrulesaresuperiortothepeople'srighttorevoltandtohumanitarian
considerations.InexchangetheWestasksRussiatofullystopitssupportforDonbass
guerillas,makingitclearthataninternationalmilitaryinvolvementinDonbassifthe
UkrainiangovernmentasksforwouldbeaslegitimateasRussia'sactionsinSyria.Sothe
dealmaynotbesomuch"RussiacedesSyriatotheWest,buttheWestcedesUkraineto
Russia",butmorelike"TheWestrecognizesal-AssadastherulerofSyriaandhelpsto
crushhisopposition,ifRussiarecognizesKiev'ssovereigntyoverthewholeUkraineand
allowstheregulararmytoridthewesternprovincesofguerillas".Suchaproposalwill
eitherbeturneddownorspoiledbytheKremlin,anditwillindicatethatRussiadoesn'twant
anykindofordertoberestoredininternationalrelations.
If,however,Moscowwouldliketonegotiatesuchanoption(thatactuallywouldlookvery
reasonablefortheKremlin),arealbreakthroughmaybeachieved.Bothsidesmaydevelop
abroadagendaofissuestobedebatedandsolved-fromthepreviouslymentioned
sovereigntytothehumanitarianinterventions,useofforce,defenceofminorities,andso
on.Ofcourse,allthiswillnotmakeourworldmoredemocraticandfreebutitdefinitelywill
turnitintoasaferplace,wherethegreatpowerpoliticslooksmuchmorepredictable-and,
Iwouldargue,todayitseemsthebestpossibleresultthatmaybeactuallyachieved.
Torepeat:theRussiansaredoingnothinginSyriathatmaybeconsideredasaviolationof
internationalorder.ThereforetheWestshouldeitherstayasideandwaitfortheoutcomeof
Russia'sriskyundertaking,orsignalthatitgotRussia'smessage,hasunderstoodit,andis
readytonegotiate.Thesecondoptionisdefinitelybetter,particularifitgivesglobalpowers
thechancetolookaftertheirowninterests,whiledebatingthefundamentalissueof
sovereignty.
[returntoContents]
#5
TheIndependent(UK)
October19,2015
EveryonewroteofftheSyrianarmy.Takeanotherlooknow
AllthisisonlythebeginningofMrPutin'sadventureintheMiddleEast
ByRobertFisk
RobertFiskisTheIndependent'smultipleaward-winningMiddleEastcorrespondent,based
inBeirut
WhiletheworldstillragesonatRussia'spresumptionintheMiddleEast-tointervenein
SyriainsteadoflettingtheAmericansdecidewhichdictatorsshouldsurviveordie-we've
allbeenforgettingtheoneinstitutioninthatArablandwhichcontinuestofunctionand
protectthestatewhichMoscowhasdecidedtopreserve:theSyrianarmy.WhileRussia
hasbeenpropagandisingitsmissiles,theSyrianmilitary,undermannedandundergunneda
fewmonthsago,hassuddenlymovedontotheoffensive.Earlierthisyear,wemay
remember,thissamearmywasbeingwrittenoff,theBasharal-Assadgovernmentsaidto
bereachingitsfinaldays.
Weemployedourownarmyofclichstomakethecaseforregimechange.TheSyrian
armywaslosingground-atJisral-ShugourandatPalmyra-andsowepredictedthatthe
wholeAssadstatehadreacheda"tippingpoint".
ThenalongcameVladimirPutinwithhisairandmissilefleetsandsuddenlythewhole
placeistransformed.WhilewehuffedandpuffedthattheRussianswerebombingthe
"moderate"rebels-moderateswhohadearlierceasedtoexistaccordingtoAmerica'stop
generals-we'vebeenpayingnoattentiontothemilitaryoffensivewhichtheSyrians
themselvesarenowstagingagainsttheNusraFrontfightersaroundAleppoandinthe
valleyoftheOrontes.
SyriancommandersarenowsettingthecoordinatesforalmosteveryRussianairstrike.
Theywereoriginallygivingbetween200and400coordinatesanight.Nowthefigure
sometimesreaches800.NotthattheRussiansaregoingaftereverymapreference,of
course.TheSyrianshavefoundthattheRussiansdonotwanttofireattargetsinbuilt-up
areastheyintendtoleaveburninghospitalsanddeadweddingpartiestotheAmericansin
Afghanistan.Thispolicycouldalwayschange,ofcourse.Noairforcebombscountries
withoutkillingcivilians.Norwithoutcrossingotherpeople'sfrontiers.
ButtheRussiansarenowtellingtheTurks-andbylogicalextension,thisinformationmust
gototheAmericans-theirflightcoordinates.Evenmoreremarkable,theyhavesetupa
hotlinecommunicationssystembetweentheirbaseontheSyrianMediterraneancoastand
theIsraeliministryofdefenceinTelAviv.MoreincrediblestillisthattheIsraelis-whohavea
habitoftargetingSyrianandIranianpersonnelneartheGolanHeights-havesuddenly
disappearedfromtheskies.Inotherwords,theRussiansareinvolvedinabigoperation,
notaone-monthwonderthatisgoingoninSyria.Anditislikelytocontinueforquiteatime.
TheSyrianswereoriginallyanxioustomovebackintoPalmyra,capturedbyIsislastMay,
buttheRussianshavedemonstratedmoreinterestintheAlepporegion,partlybecause
theybelievetheircoastalbasesaroundLattakiaarevulnerable.TheNusraFronthasfired
severalmissilestowardsLattakiaandTartousandMoscowhasnodesiretohaveitsair
forcetargetedontheground.ButtheSyrianarmyisnowdeployingitsfourmajorunits-the
1stand4thDivisions,RepublicanGuardsandSpecialForces-onthebattlefrontsandare
movingclosertotheTurkishborder.
RussianairstrikesaroundtheIsis"capital"ofRaqqamayormaynotbehurtingIsis,
althoughtheSyriansliketoboastthattheyhaveplentyofintelligencecomingtothemfrom
thecity.Interesting,iftrue,becauseIsispersonnelarespecialistsintorturingtodeath
"agentsoftheregime"anditwouldbeabravemantopassoninformationtoDamascus.
Yettravellers'talescanbetrue.There'saregularcivilianbusroutefromRaqqato
Damascus-buseshaveanoddhabitofcrossingfrontlinesinmostcivilwars-andif
passengersprefernottotalktojournalists,theywilltalkofwhattheyhaveseenwhenthey
gethome.
AllthisisonlythebeginningofMrPutin'sadventure.Heisprovingtobequiteatravellerto
theMiddleEast-andhasalreadymadefirmfriendsofanotherpillaroftheregion,that
President-FieldMarshalwhoscoredmorethan96percentatthepollsandwhocurrently
rulesEgypt.ButtheEgyptianarmy,fightingitslittlewarinSinai,nolongerhasstrategic
experienceofamajorwar.Nor,despitetheirdallianceintheairoverYemen,Libya,Syria
andothertargetsofopportunity,dothepresentmilitaryauthoritiesinSaudiArabia,the
EmiratesandJordanhavemuchunderstandingofhowarealwarisfought.Libya'sown
armyisinbits.Iraq'smilitaryhasscarcelyearnedanymedalsagainstitsIslamistenemies.
Butthereisonefactorwhichshouldnotbeoverlooked.
Ifitwins-andifitholdstogetherandifitsmanpower,whichisadmittedlyatalowlevel,can
bemaintained-thentheSyrianmilitaryisgoingtocomeoutofthiscurrentwarasthemost
ruthless,battle-trainedandbattle-hardenedArabarmyintheentireregion.Woebetideany
ofitsneighbourswhoforgetthis.
[returntoContents]
#6
MoscowTimes
October19,2015
ForeignInvestmentinRussianCommercialPropertyHits7-YearHigh
ByAnastasiaBazenkova
ForeigninvestmentinRussiancommercialpropertyhashitaseven-yearhighastheweak
rublehasmadethemarketmoreattractiveforinternationalcompanies,theRBC
newspaperreportedFriday,citingarecentmarketstudy.
Foreigncapitalaccountedfor42percentofinvestmentinthecommercialrealestate
marketinthefirstninemonthsoftheyear,thehighestratesince2008,whenforeigncapital
wasusedin77percentofthedealsoverthesameperiod,areportbyrealestateagency
Cushman&Wakefieldshowed,accordingtothenewspaper.
Outof$2billioninvestedincommercialpropertyinRussiabetweenJanuaryand
September,foreigninvestorsputup$848million,thereportsaid.
Cushman&Wakefield'sanalystsattributetheincreasedinterestfromforeigninvestorsin
RussiancommercialrealestatetothedevaluationoftheRussiancurrency,whichhaslost
morethan40percentofitsvaluesincethebeginningoflastyear.
Forforeigncompanies,theruble'sfallwasapositivesignaltoconcludedeals,Mikhail
Mindlin,amemberofCushman&Wakefield'sboardofdirectorsinRussia,toldRBC.
WhileforeigninvestorsintheRussianrealestatemarketareactiveasever,thetotal
amountofinvestmentincommercialpropertythisyearhasbeenmuchlowerthanlastyear.
InvestmentincommercialpropertyinRussiadroppedby44percentinthefirstninemonths
oftheyearcomparedtothesameperiodin2014,RBCcitedthereportassaying.The
sharpoveralldeclineiscausedmostlybyadropininvestmentfromRussiancompanies,
Cushman&Wakefielddatashowed.
Inthefirstninemonthsoftheyear,Russianinvestorsspent$1.2billiononcommercialreal
estateinthecountry,$1.8billiondownfromthesameperiodlastyear.Theyarewaitingfor
themarkettohitthebottomandareinnohurrytopurchaseproperty,MindlintoldRBC.
Themostattractivesegmentforcommercialrealestateinvestorsisofficespace,where47
percentofthetotalamountofinvestmentwasseeninthefirstfivemonthsoftheyear,the
Kommersantnewspaperreportedlastweek,citingdatafromrealestateconsultancy
ColliersInternational.
[returntoContents]
#7
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
October19,2015
Russiannationalistsinretreatasgovernmentappliespressure
AtemporarybanhasbeenimposedonthesolelargeassociationofRussiannationalists,
withtheprosecutor'sofficedemandingthatitberecognizedasextremist.RBTHasks
activistsandobserverswhatishappeningwiththenationalistmovementinRussia,and
whyitisnowcallingitselfthegovernment's"newenemy."
YekaterinaSinelschikova,RBTH
TwoyearsagoitseemedasiftheKremlinandRussia'svariousnationalistgroupswere,if
notahappycouple,thenatleastcontenttobeinthesameroom.Theirshared
conservativevaluesandstaunchchampioningofallthings"Russian"madethemnatural
allies.ButeversincethecrisisinUkrainefirstbeganinearly2014,therelationshiphas
beenunraveling.
InAugustthisyeartheMoscowProsecutor'sOfficetemporarilysuspendedtheactivityof
theRusskiye("Russians")nationalistmovement,demandingthatthecourtrecognizeitas
extremistandbanitinRussia.
Thereasonforthesuspensionisthat,accordingtotheprosecutor'soffice,thedocuments
illustratingthemovement'splansare"aimedatexcitingenmity"towardspeoplebasedon
theirnationalityand"containcallsforanationalliberationfighttocreateaRussiannational
state."
RusskiyeleaderDmitryDemushkin,againstwhomalawsuithasbeenfiled,toldRBTHthat
heiswaitingtobearrested"forsomefictitiousact"andAlexanderBelov,anothernationalist
leader,iswaitingtobesentencedtoajailterm.
Whilethenationalistsbelievethattheirranksarebeingpurged,expertsareinclinedtocall
thisa"progressivedecline"andnotethatthenationalistshavebeenunabletorecoverfrom
theinnerschismthatdividedthemovementovertheconflictinUkrainethatbeganin2014.
Asaresultofthesplit,asignificantpartoftheassociationproclaimeditssupportforthe
pro-RussianrebelsineasternUkraine'sDonbassregion,butanotherpartsidedwithKiev
underthesloganofRussian-UkrainianSlavicunity.Duringthe2014RussianMarch,anow-
traditionalannualrallyforRussiannationalistsorganizedinmajorcitiesacrossthecountry,
theydividedthemselvesintotwocolumns.
However,expertssaythatitwasnotUkrainealonethatgeneratedthecrisiswithinthe
movement.
Adeclineorathreat
ThefactthattheRussiannationalistmovementisinprofounddeclinetodayissomething
thatnotonlydetachedobserversbelieve-eventhemovement'sideologistsagree.
"Themovementdoesn'thaveanypoliticalperspective,practicallytheentirefieldhasbeen
burnedandthesecurityforcesarefinishingoffthewounded,"saidDemushkin,who
believesthattheauthoritiesdecidedtomopupthenationalists"justincase."Accordingto
Demushkin,thegovernmentisafraidthatradicalnationalistsmayjoinforceswithanti-
governmentprotesters.
"Inthemselves,itseems,theydonotrepresentadanger.They'vebecomerathersilent.But
whentheyreturnfromtheDonbasstoRussia,thisisapotentialthreat,"saidAlexander
Verkhovsky,directoroftheSovaanalyticalcenterandanexpertonnationalismand
xenophobia.
AccordingtoVerkhovsky,severalthousandnationalistswenttofightonthesideofpro-
RussianrebelsineasternUkraineandareunlikelytobepleasedwiththefactthatthe
conflictintheDonbassiscomingtoaclose.
"ItcannotberuledoutthatuponreturningtoRussiatheywillwanttoadheretosomekindof
radicalpolicy,whichiswhythegovernmentistryingtosuppressalltypesofradicalgroups,
includingthoseinspiredbyStalin,"hesaid.
Leftwithoutanagenda
YetobserverssaythatthecontradictionsrelatedtotheUkrainianissuearenotcapableof
destroyingthenationalistsasaforce.
"What'schangedinthelastyearisthatthemovementhasstoppedarticulatinga
constructiveagenda,"saidSergeiProstakov,acollaboratorattheCenterofEthno-Political
Studies.
AccordingtoProstakov,eventhoughovertheprevious10-15years"thegovernmentwould
juststealtheirslogans,"themovementstillusedtocreatesomethingnew,rightupuntilthe
eventsof2014,whichseemedtodisorientthemajorityofRussiannationalists.
"Theyrealizedthattheirinterestsforthefirsttimecorrespondedtogovernmentpolicy.This
istheaccessionofCrimea,thatis,theideaoftherestorationoftheSovietUnionandthe
protectionofRussiansintheDonbass,"saidProstakov.
However,hepointedout,thisdidnotgivethenationalistsanypoliticalpoints:Theywere
simplyusedasextras.
Verkhovskyagrees:Thesystemicnationalists,suchasthepro-governmentRodinaParty,
theAnti-MaidanMovementandtheGreatFatherlandParty,havebeenleftwithoutany
politicalperspectives.
"Obviously,theyarenotunderanypressurebutitseemsthatthegovernmentisnotreally
helpingthem.Youcantellbytheirpitiableresultsattheregionalelections,"saidVerkhovsky.
Thenewenemy
DmitryDemushkinseesanother,significantchangeintheRussiannationalists'position:
Nowtheyarepartoftheopposition.
"Until2010theRussiannationalistsinclusivelywereneveragainstthegovernment,@he
said."Butthenourorganizationswerebanned(theSlavicUnionandtheSlavicForce
groupsarerecognizedasextremists-RBTH)andlawsuitswerefiledagainstthe
organizations'leaders,firstjustone-timecases,nowmoreandmoreoften.
"NowthenationalistshaveturnedawayfromtheKremlinandthisisexclusivelythe
government'sfault.Ithascreatedanenemyforitself,"saidDemushkin.
Lookingforward,noneoftheobserversinterviewedbyRBTHwereunabletosayexactly
whatwillbecomeofthesappednationalistmovementinthefuture.
"Russiannationalismisgoingthroughaheavycrisis,butallcrisesendinsomething.Itis
unlikelytodieasickman'sdeath,thisisimpossible,"saidAlexanderVerkhovsky,who
believestheradicalizationofthemovementisinevitable.
Meanwhile,SergeiProstakovbelievesthatNovember'sRussianMarchwillbeakey
yardstickforevaluatingthecurrentstateofthemovement.
"Lastyearthedemonstrationgatheredaminimalnumberofpeople[1,500,accordingtothe
police-RBTH],eventhoughinbettertimesthemarchwouldgatherabout10,000people,"
hesaid.
[returntoContents]
#8
Bloomberg
October18,2015
Russia'sAilingConsumersKeepDoorOpenforRateCuts
ByOttUmmelasandAnnaAndrianova
TheremaybeasilverliningfortheBankofRussiainanotherbatchofgrimconsumerdata.
WhileGovernorElviraNabiullinahassetacourseformonetaryeasingtomatchslowing
inflation,policymakerslastmonthpausedtheireasingcycleforthefirsttimein2015.The
scalesmaybetippinginfavorofanothercutthisyearasRussia'sconsumereconomy
continuestoweaken.Wagesadjustedforinflationfellforan11thmonthinSeptemberand
retailsalescontractedthemostin16years,theFederalStatisticsServiceinMoscowsaid
Mondayinastatement.
"Therearestrongdisinflationarytrends,includingfallingretailsales,vehiclesales,wages,
andhouseholddebt,"PerHammarlund,thechiefemerging-marketsstrategistatSEBABin
Stockholm,saidbye-mailbeforethedatarelease."Thisweaknesswillgiveplentyofroom
forthe"centralbank"tocutrates,aslongasoilpricesholdup."
Russianpolicymakershavestruggledtoconcocttherightpolicymixtosteerthecountry
outofitslongestrecessionintwodecades.Afreshboutofrubleweaknessforcedthe
centralbanktoholdoffoneasingpolicyafteritalreadyrolledbackmostofaDecember
emergencyrateincrease.Withinternationalsanctionsandlowoilpricesshacklingthe
economyoftheworld'slargestenergyexporter,Standard&Poor'slastweekforecasta
deepercontractionasitpredictsprivateconsumptionwillremainweaknextyear.
RubleDecline
Sincelastmonth'sratedecision,therublehasgained10percentagainstthedollaramida
revivalinemerging-marketriskappetite.Therublehasdepreciatedabout35percent
againstthedollarinthepast12months,thesecond-worstperformerbehindtheBrazilian
realamong24emerging-marketcurrenciestrackedbyBloomberg.Ittraded1.5percent
weakerat62.2630rublesperdollarat4.08p.m.Monday.Forward-rateagreementsare
signaling40basispointsofcutsinborrowingcostsduringthenextthreemonths,the
biggestbetssinceJuly.
Septemberrealwagesdeclined9.7percentfromayearagoafterarevised9percentdrop
inAugust,thestatisticsservicesaid.Themedianestimateof14economistssurveyedby
Bloombergwas9.8percent.Retailsalesdropped10.4percent,themostsinceAugust
1999,anddisposableincomesshrank4.3percent.
VTBanalystsAlexanderIsakovandPetrGrishinsaidinanoteOct.15that"furtherproofof
demandweakness,"includingunemploymentapproaching6percent,anannualdeclinein
realwagescloserto11percentoranacceleratingdeclineininvestmentsisneededtoshift
thebalancetowarda50basis-pointratecutatthecentralbankmeetingonOct.30.Other
conditionsincludetherubletradingatabout62againstthedollarandthebudgetstance
beingkepttight,theysaid.
Theunemploymentrateunexpectedlydeclinedto5.2percentfrom5.3percent,compared
withthe5.4percentmedianestimateof12economists.Fixed-capitalinvestmentdropped
5.6percentlastmonth,the21stconsecutivenegativereading,makingitthelongestsuch
stretchsinceatleast1995,whenBloombergstartedcompilingthefigures.
"Wenowanticipateaweaknessinprivateconsumptiontoextendinto2016,andanonly
marginalrecoveryincapitalspendingnextyear,helpedbyimprovedcorporateprofit
marginsandaslowdownindeleveraging,"S&PsenioreconomistTatianaLysenkosaidina
reportonOct.15.ThecreditevaluatornowseesRussia'seconomycontracting3.6
percentthisyear,followedby0.3percentgrowthin2016,shesaid.
[returntoContents]
#9
Kremlinchiefofstaff:Russiatodonothingagainstitsintereststogetsanctionslifted
MOSCOW,October19./TASS/.Russiawilldonothingthatcouldharmitsinterestsinorder
togetthewesternsanctionslifted,SergeyIvanov,thechiefofRussia'spresidentialstaff,
saidinanexclusiveinterviewwithTASS.
"Wewillneverdoanythingtoharmournationalinterestsjustforthesakeofseeingthe
sanctionslifted.Neverever!Itwasnotuswhotookthosemeasures,andwearenotgoing
todiscussinanyformatwhatisnecessaryforcancelingthem,"Ivanovsaid.
Hesaidtheliftingofanti-Russiasanctionsshouldnotbelinkedwiththerestorationofpeace
inUkraine.
"Iwouldavoidanylinkagehere.Areyoucertainthatthesanctionswillbeliftedfromuseven
afterimpeccablecompliancewithMinsk-2?Arethereanyguarantees?Personally,Ihave
bigdoubtsonthatscore.Thereisnoreasonwhyweshouldofferexcusesoraskfor
forgiveness,"Ivanovsaid.
Headmittedthat"thefinancialandeconomicsituationinthecountryisreallygrave."
"Thesanctionsdidcausecertainlosses.TheGDPisonthedecline,andnotontheascent.
Wedon'tdenythat.But!TherootcausefortheRussianeconomy'sslowdownisnot
sanctions,butthefallintheworldpricesofoilandgas,"hesaid.
"Iagreethatthishasdemonstratedagainourstrongdependenceonhydrocarbonsand
howverybadthisis.Butontheotherhand,we'vebeenabletorealizethevectoroffuture
actiontobetakentoeasethepressuresoftherawmaterialsfactor,"Ivanovadded.
Westexaggeratesconsequencesofsanctions,noregretsforG8
MoscowhasnoregretsfortheexpulsionfromtheG8,whiletheinfluenceofsanctionson
Russia'seconomyisexaggeratedbytheWest,SergeyIvanovwentontosay.
"TheWestgrosslyexaggeratestheinfluenceofthelatestsanctionsontheRussian
economy.True,theydoposecertainhindrancestous,itwouldbefoolishtodenythe
obvious,butIwillsayagainandagainthatinthepastwelivedthroughfargreater
problems,"Ivanovsaid.
"AttemptstopunishRussiaaresenselessandineffective,"hesaid."Wesawsanctions
takenagainstusbackduringtheruleoftheRomanovdynasty.There'snothingnewabout
them."
"Tradebarrierswereputupandfinancialobstructionsposedagainandagain...Those
measureswerefarharsherthanthecurrentones.Butwemanaged.Wedidn'tgetscared
inthepast,andwewillstayfirmthistime,"Ivanovsaid.
"AlexanderSolzhenytsinsaidperfectlywellthatfromtimeimmemorialtheWesthadfelt
scaredofRussia'senormity,"headded.
IvanovstressedthattheG8iscertainlynottheplacewhereRussiawouldliketogetback.
"Inthe1990sRussiaspentmuchtimeandeffortforthesakeofbeingadmittedtothisclub
ofselectfewiteventuallygotthereonlytoseeforitselfthattheG8wasnolongercapable
ofaddressinganyofthefundamentalissueshumanitywasconfrontedwithatthecurrent
stage,"hesaid.
"Theworldtodayisverydifferent.TheG20-that'stheworthylevel.Itistherethattruly
importantthemesarebeingdiscussedandsolutionmechanismscanbedevised,"Ivanov
added.
"HereisaSyria-relatedexample.Theneedforeliminatingthearsenalsofchemical
weaponsinthatcountrywasagreedonwithintheG20format,andnottheG8orG7group.
SotherenoregretsaboutthedemiseoftheG8,believeme,"heconcluded.
SanctionsagainstRussialedtosplitofelitesbutinWest
AccordingtoSergeyIvanov,thesanctionsagainstMoscowhaveledtothesplitofelitesnot
inRussiabutintheWest.
"Itseemstomethattheeliteshavesplitabroadratherthaninourcountry,"Ivanovsaid.
"Haven'tyounoticedthatwhenofficials-ministers,speakersand,allthemoreso,
presidentsortheheadsofgovernments-speak,theycriticizeRussiaunmercifullywitha
frownontheirfacesandaquiveringvoice,"hesaid.
"Butwhenpoliticianswhohavelefttheupperechelonsofpowerforvariousreasonsstartto
speak,thetonalityoftheirspeecheschangesdramatically.Foreignanddefenseministers
andotherreputablepersonswhohavelefttheirpostssuddenlybegintoopenlyshow
solidaritywithourpositiononmanyissues,"Ivanovadded.
"Thissuggeststhatyouareobligedtotalkthiswayandnootherwaywhileyouarein
power.Itisonlyafteryouresignthatyoucanexpressyourownthoughtsandviews.Thisis
notforbiddenbutonlyforex-officialsandnotforpersonsholdingposts,"hesaid."Those
whoreturntopower,starttocriticizeuswithanewvigor.Ihavelonggrownaccustomedto
this.Andlookatitwithhumor."
Ivanovalsosaidhedislikedtheword"elites"."Tomymind,thiswordcanbeusedforthose
whohavedonesomethinguseful,necessaryandtangibleforthehomecountryinthe
courseofseveralgenerations,"hesaid.
"Somerepresentativesofthebusinesscircles(butnotelites)havesufferedfromthe
sanctions,"headded."Buteverythingisrelative.Ibelieve,althoughIdonotassert,that
yachtsawayfromthem."
"Asforhowsomebusinessmenlookatothersandhow,itisbettertoaddressthisquestion
everythingisunderstandabletoeveryone.Butthisismypresumption,"Ivanovsaid.
"Strictlyspeaking,inthecontextoftheinfluenceofsanctionsonbusiness,itismore
appropriatetotalknotaboutthefreedomoftravelacrosstheworldbut,say,aboutthe
restrictedaccesstothecapitalmarket,which,indeed,hasseriouseconomic
consequencesforcompaniesincludedinthesanctionslists."
[returntoContents]
#10
TheJordanTimes
www.jordantimes.com
October18,2015
AreSanctionsSavingRussia?
ByRichardWerverandVladimirYakunin
RichardA.WernerisProfessorofInternationalBankingattheUniversityofSouthampton
andauthorofNewParadigminMacroeconomics.VladimirI.YakuninisChairinState
PolicyatLomonosovMoscowStateUniversity,FoundingPresidentoftheWorldPublic
Forum,andformerChairmanofRussianRailways.
MOSCOW-TheeconomicsanctionsimposedonRussiabytheWestinMarch2014have
undoubtedlybeenpainful.Buttheyhavesofarfailedtoachievethegoalofweakening
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sposition.Infact,theymayhavetheoppositeeffect,
leavingRussia-anditspresident-evenstrongerthanbefore.
EuropeanUnioncountriesareestimatedtohavelostabout$100billionintradewith
Russia,hittingthelikesofBavariandairyfarmersandeasternGermanindustrialexporters.
RussianGDP,whichgrewmodestlyin2014,contractedby4.6%inannualtermsinthe
secondquarterofthisyear.TherublelostmorethanhalfofitsUSdollarvalueinthe
secondhalfoflastyear,fuelinginflation,whichincreasedby15.6%yearonyearinJuly.
Butinflationnowseemstohavepeaked,andtheeffectsofthedropinoilandgasprices
weremitigatedbytheUSdollar'sappreciation,sothatthevalueofRussia'sforeign
reservesactuallyincreased,reaching$362billioninJune(13%ofwhichisingold).And
despitebelt-tighteninginRussia,Putinismorepopularthanever.
Therationalebehindeconomicsanctionsisstraightforward:freetradeandfreemarkets
delivergrowth(andthuspoliticalsupportforthegovernment),whereasrestrictionschoke
offgrowth(andthuserodesupportforthegovernment).Thisemphasisonfreetradeand
freemarketswasacentraltenetofnineteenth-centuryBritishclassicaleconomics.It
remainsacoremessageoftoday'sdominantneoclassicalschool-embodiedintheso-
called"WashingtonConsensus,"adoptedacrosstheworldundertheInternationalMonetary
Fund'sadvice-whichclaimsthatthekeytoeconomicdevelopmentistoopenup,
deregulate,liberalize,andprivatize.
Butthetheoryisfundamentallyflawed.Noeconomicpowerhaseverdevelopedsolelyon
thebasisoflaissez-fairepolicies.TheeconomicriseoftheUnitedKingdom,forexample,
washeavilydependentonstrategicprotection,industrialpolicy,tariffs,andnon-tarifftrade
barriers.
TheUK'sindustrialprowessoriginatedwiththetextileindustry.Thecountry'sleaders
realizedthattheexportofrawmaterials,mainlywool,wouldbeinadequatetospur
economicdevelopment.Forthat,Englandwouldhavetomoveupthevalue-addedladder,
byimportingrawmaterialsandexportingfinishedgoods.
SoEngland'sleadersdevisedanindustrialpolicy,whichentailedbringinginFlemishtextile
weaverstoprovideknow-howtoBritishfirms.Moreover,theyerectedtradebarriers:By
banningtheexportofrawwoolandtheimportoffinishedwoolproducts,Indiantextiles,
whichwereoftensuperiorandcheaper,couldnotcompetewithdomesticoutput.They
adoptednavigationlawsthatrestrictedforeignships'accesstoBritishportsandeven
enactedademand-boostinglawrequiringthedeadtobeburiedinwoolens.Ultimately,the
mechanizationofthetextileindustryusheredintheIndustrialRevolution,andmass
productionandexportsunderpinnedthedevelopmentoftheworld'slargestmaritimefleet.
Inthemid-nineteenthcentury,theGermaneconomistFriedrichListhighlightedtherolethat
suchpoliciesplayedintheUK'sdevelopment.Inlinewithhisadvice,theUnitedStates,
Germany,andJapanemployedjudicioustradeprotectionandindustrialpolicies,while
workingactivelytosupportnascentsectors-astrategythatenabledthemtodevelop
rapidlyandevenovertakeBritain.
Restrictionsalsoprovedeffectivetospureconomicdevelopment:In1812,whentheUK
declaredwarandimposedatradeembargoontheUS,importsubstitutioncaused
Americanmanufacturingtoflourish.Whentheembargowasliftedandtradetariffswere
reduced,USmanufacturingfloundered-until1828,whennewBritishtariffsboostedUS
manufacturingagain.Likewise,duringWorldWarI,aBritishtradeembargospurredthe
developmentofGermanhigh-techindustriesduetothedemandforsubstitutes.
Ofcourse,embargoescanhaveadevastatingeffectwhenacountrylackstheresources
neededforimportsubstitution.ThatiswhyeconomicsanctionsweresodamagingforIran
and,earlier,forIraq'spopulation.
But,foracountrylikeRussia,withitsabundantnaturalresources,technologicalexpertise,
andskilledworkforce,sanctionscanhavetheoppositeeffect.TheSovietUnionstruggled
tocapitalizeonthesefactors,owingtocommunism'sweakincentivestructure.Today,by
contrast,Russiahasacapitalistsystemthatoffersconsiderablebenefitstothosewho
adaptbesttotherestrictions.
Inshort,Russiahasallitneedstothrive,despite-orbecauseof-thesanctions.But
turningopportunityintorealityrequiresRussiatopursueaneconomictransformation.
Neoclassicaltradetheoryisbasedontheconceptofcomparativeadvantage:countries
shouldcapitalizeontheirrelativestrengths,fromtechnologicalprowesstoresource
endowments.But,asEnglishleadersknewandastheexperienceofmanyAfricanand
LatinAmericancountrieshasshown,simplyexportingrawmaterialsisinadequateto
propeldevelopment.Historically,themosteffectivedevelopmentpolicyhascenteredon
governmentinterventiontoestablishhigher-value-addeddomesticindustries.Inprevious
decades,Japan,Taiwan,SouthKorea,andChinahavealltakenthispath.
ForRussia,movingupthevalue-addedladdershouldnotbedifficultithasallitneedsto
manufacturethefinishedproductsthatitpreviouslyimported.Infact,importsubstitution
hasalreadyincreasedproductivityinseveralkeysectors:engineering,petrochemicals,light
industry,pharmaceuticals,andagriculture.Annualexportsofhigh-value-addedgoodsrose
by6%inthefirstquarterofthisyear.
Furthermore,Russia'sleadershiphasacceleratedcooperationwiththeotherBRICS
economies(Brazil,India,China,andSouthAfrica),andPutinrecentlyannouncedambitious
planstoboostdomesticdemand.
TheWest'ssanctionsagainstRussiamaynotonlyfailtochangetheUkrainesituationthey
maywellspurthecountry'slong-awaitedstructuraltransformation.IfRussiasuccessfully
replicatesthecredit-guidanceregimeusedbyEastAsia'seconomies,whileincreasing
managerialefficiency,yetanothereconomicmiracleispossible.
[returntoContents]
#11
http://readrussia.com
October16,2016
Russia:aTaxiDriver'sVersion
ByJamesPearce
WhenlastintheUK,Igotoffthetrainintoataxifortheshortdrivetomychildhoodhome.
Mydriver,Ardashir,askedwereI'dcomefrom."Russia"."Russia?!Wow,Iloveyour
president,he'sasmartmanwhoisdoingtherightthingandloveshiscountry."
Ofcourse,I'mnotRussianbybirth,butImustadmithowrefreshingitwastohearthisin
theUKacountrynotcreditedforagreatdealofknowledgeaboutRussiaordevotingmuch
affectiontothecountryasawhole.
Putinisn'tmyfavouritepolitician,butbeingconstantlylecturedabouthowevilheisevery
timeIgohomegetsratherdull.SoIplayedalong,andthediscussioneventuallydeveloped
ontoSyria.I'mgladitdidbecauseArdashirwasfromIran,andhadacompletelydifferent
viewpointtomostfrommyhometown.
HehadanaturalempathyforSyrians,himselfbeingaShiaMuslim,andtoldmeoutright
"Assadisnotevil.Youknow,morepeoplehavediedbecauseofISISthanbecauseofhim.
InIraqtoo,morepeopledietodayonthestreetsthaninSaddam'stime.Thiscrisisistheir
[thewest's]fault."
Ardashirbelievedthatifitwasn'tforRussia'sinterferenceintheMiddleEast,thenitwould
bemadeupofroboticpuppetstatesthatyoucannotforcegroupsofpeople,withno
conceptofanationstate,intogeopoliticallyimaginedlinestheycannotcomprehendthat
askingthemtogiveuptheirpracticesinfavourofwaystotallyalienisunrealisticandnever
goingtobethesolution.
Moreover,hebelievedthatitisabouttimeRussiacanfinally'solve'thesituation,because
Syriaandthewestsimplycan't.Manypoliticalobserversmayrecallinthelasttwomonth's
thatPutinhasmetwithmanyMiddleEasternleadersandheldtalksregardingthecrisis.It
showsthereisadiplomaticboneintheRussianbody.Thoughlet'ssavethediscussionon
'Russiatheguardianofdemocracy'foranotherday.
ForArdashir,RussiahasacommonvaluesharedamongmanyMiddleEasterncountries"
[we]don'tjustbelieveourwaysarebetter.It'sthatwesternideascannotbeappliedtoour
society-Putingetsit,becauseRussiaisthesame...together,weshowsolidarityandwant
theworldtoseethatnoamountofforceorintimidationwillmakeusbackdown".
Astheconversationcontinued,wewerenolongerspeakingEnglish.Icametolearnthat
ArdashirlivedinRussiabackin1996andworkedtherefortwoyears.Somemightsayhe
gotoutattherighttimesincein1998theeconomyhittherailingshardandlifeforthe
majorityofthepopulationbecameunbearable.Heinsistshehadagreattimeneverthe
less.
ThecomplimentskeptcomingArdashirclaimshehadnevermetnicerpeoplethanthe
Russians.That"you[Russians]areacaringandprincipledpeople".Itookthisopportunity
toaskhimsomethingpersonal:
"Butsurely,youmusthaveencountereddiscriminationatsomepoint?"Icertainlyhave(not
thatitcausesmeanysleeploss).Hisresponsewasremarkable:
"Listen,noamountofracismorxenophobiccommenttookawaytheimmensebeautyof
thecountryandthepassionofitspeople.InEngland,peoplecallmeapakiitjustshows
howemptythecultureasawholeisandhowidiotictheyare.AtleastafterRussianscall
me'ponayekhali',theyreturntotheircopyofSolzhenitsynorPushkin.Englishpeoplefall
outofmycabdrunk,insulttheirbestfriendatthebarwhenthey'reinthetoiletandthen
lecturetheworldonhowtolive."
YoumaythenwonderwhyhelivesinacountrylikeEnglandatall.Inhisownwords:
"moneytalksandbullsh*twalks."
SoIfinallyarrivedhomeandaskedhimhowmuch?Let'sjustsayhegavemeagenerous
discount.BeingRussiancertainlyhaditsbenefits.
ButwhatArdashirshows,isthatthereisnoonetruthtoanystory.Often,tounderstandthe
other'sviewpoint,onemustclimbupontotheirpillarandseetheworldinthesamewayas
themdoesthishappenwiththecaseofRussiaoften?
Thefactis,therearemanylikeArdashiracrosstheMiddleEastand,indeed,throughout
Russia,whosimplyfeelliketheirlivesarebeingintrudedupon.Thattheirsituationisbeing
deliberatelymisunderstoodforsomebodyelse'spersonalgain.
WecanhaveahealthydebateonRussia'sactionsinglobalconflicts,butshehas
supportersEastandWestoneverycontinent.Manyofwhom,feelthesamesenseof
pressureandintimidationbywesterncountriestogoalongwiththeirstatusquo.
Likemanyinhisprofession,Ardashirwasaworldlygentlemanwhohasbeenaroundthe
blockafewtimes.Beingdroppedhomebyhiminsteadofatoothlesscockneywith
controversialviewsonimmigration,madeforabetterwelcomehome.
[returntoContents]
#12
HuffingtonPost
October14,2015
NoRussianQuagmireintheMiddleEast
BySarwarKashmeri
AdjunctProfessorPolSci-NorwichUniversityFellow-ForeignPolicyAssoc.
CriticismofRussia'sprojectionofforceintoSyriaisoftenlacedwithpredictionsofan
impendingRussianquagmire,inthefashionoftheSovietmisadventureofthe1970sin
Afghanistan.Nothingcouldbefartherfromthetruth.Mr.Putinhasmadeastrategic,well
calibratedandthoughtoutmoveontheMiddleEastchessboardandwillsoonreap
significantgeopoliticalrewardsfromit.
ThemassivesovietinvasionofAfghanistanin1979wasaimedatoccupyingthecountry
andcrushinganinternalAfghanrebellionagainsttheSovietsupportedgovernment.
Afghanistan'sruggedmountainousterrain,coupledwiththelegendaryAfghanhatefor
foreignoccupiers,andthestealthyprovisionofsophisticatedU.S.arms,putanendtothat.
Russia'sobjectivesfromitsmilitarythrustintheMiddleEast,ontheotherhand,arefar
morelimitedandachievablewhichiswhatmakesthemofsuchstrategicconsequence.
Mr.Putin'scalculationsarebasedonfivefactsontheground:
First,theUnitedStateshasworkeditselfintoaquagmireintheMiddleEast.Ithaspublically
declaredthat"Assadmustgo,"andhaspromisedto"degradeanddestroytheIslamic
State,"withoutcommittingthemilitaryforcestoachieveeitheroutcome.Predictably,Mr.
AssadisstillthereandtheIslamicStatehasgrownbiggerandstronger.Mr.Putinknows
thereisnoappetiteintheUnitedStatesforarobustmilitaryengagement,inapartofthe
worldwhereAmericanolongerhasanyvitalnationalinterests.
Second,Mr.PutiniskeenlyawareofthedamagebeingwreakedinEuropebytheunending
tideofrefugeesthatnowthreatenEuropeaneconomiesandthecohesivenessofthe
EuropeanUnion.TheEuropeansrealizeapermanent,longtermsolutiontotheirrefugee
nightmareliesinmakingthewarravagedMiddleEastsaferforitscitizens,notinbuilding
fences.
Third,Russia'sclient,Syria'sPresidentBasharal-Assadhasbeensteadilylosinggroundin
Syria'scivilwar,asituationthatthreatensland-lockedRussia'sonlyforeignnavalbaseand
itsMiddleEastintelligenceoperations,asituationthatRussiaisobligedtocorrect.
Fourth,Mr.PutinrecognizestheattractionoftheIslamicStateforradicalizedcitizensinthe
MuslimRepublicsoftheRussianFederation,thousandsofwhosecitizensnowfightwith
theIslamicStateandwillsomedayreturntodirecttheirbattle-hardenedskillsagainst
Russia.
Andfinally,thedirestraitoftheRussianeconomy,thatreliesalmostcompletelyonglobal
energypriceswhichhavebeeninfreefallforoverayear.ThecollapseinRussia'smain
incomestreamismagnifiedbyWesterneconomicsanctionswhichhavecutoffRussia's
accesstooutsidecapital.
Putinhasputallofthistogetherandcomeupwithaplanto,atonce,offerawayouttothe
ditheringAmericans,resolvethepressuresonquiveringEuropeans,saveRussia'salliance
anditsmilitary/intelligenceinterestsintheMiddleEast,destroytheIslamicState,and
entrenchRussiaintotheMiddleEast'spowerequation.
RussiahasenteredtheMiddle-EastfrayinalliancewithIraqandIran,andwithsufficient
militarypowertoseriouslydamagetheanti-AssadforcesandthoseoftheIslamicState.My
forecast:Mr.Putinwillachievesignificantsuccessonthebattlefieldwithin30-60days.He
willthenoffertojoinforceswiththeU.S.-ledcoalitiontodestroywhatremainsoftheIslamic
State,and,significantly,tohelpsetup"safe-zones"inSyria,inwhichSyrianandother
refugeescanfindahavenuntilconditionsintheirhomelandsimproveandtheycanreturn
home.TheideaofsafezonesinSyriahasalreadybeenfloatedintheUnitedNationsbythe
EuropeansbuthadbeendeemedimpracticalbecauseofRussianopposition.
ForAmericansandEuropeanstheRussianofferwillbealifelinetheycannotrefuse.
EuropeanswilljumpattheopportunitytoshuntthefloodofrefugeesawayfromEurope
whiletheU.S.willjumpattheopportunitytodestroytheIslamicStatewithoutcommittingits
groundforces,andtofinallywinddownafruitlessandseeminglyendlessmilitary
commitmentthatiscostingAmericantaxpayersmillionsofdollarsaday.
Inreturn,Mr.Putinwilldemandaseatatthetabletohelpdeterminetheregion'sfuturehe
willalsodemandthatthefutureofSyriaandMr.AssadbelefttoRussia,andohyes,
economicsanctionsrelief.TheU.S.maybalkatsanctionsrelief,butEuropeanpressure
willensurethatMr.Putingetsit.
HardlyaRussianquagmire!
[returntoContents]
#13
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
October18,2015
WeekTwooftheRussianMilitaryInterventioninSyria
OptionsforDaesh,theEmpireandRussia
ByTheSaker
TheRussianoffensiveinSyriaisstillverymuchinfullswinganditishardtomakesense
ofwhatisreallyhappeningorhoweffectiveithasbeen.AccordingtotheSyrians,40%ofall
theinfrastructureof"Daesh"(meaningISIS+al-Qaeda+allthehundredsofsmallergroups
fightingtogetheragainsttheSyriangovernment)hasbeendestroyed.Russiansourcesare
lessenthusiasticandspeakofaratherslowandhesitantSyrianoffensive.Sofar,nomajor
victoryhasbeenreported,butsinceallsidesagreethattheRussianaircampaignis
devastatinglyeffectiveandhighlydisruptiveforDaesh,Ithinkthatthereisagoodprobability
thattheSyrianswillsoonachieveamajorsuccess.Ifnot,thentheIraniansmostdefinitely
havethecapabilitytotrulytipthebalance.Sothismightbeagoodtimetolookatwhat
optionsDaeshwillhave.
HowDaeshcanadapttothenewcircumstances
First,upuntilnow,Daeshbasicallycouldmovearoundatnightwithtotalimpunitybecause
theSyrianAirForcesimplydidnothavethetechnologytodetectandengageDaeshunits
atnight.ThishasnowchangedsincealltheRussianaircraft(rotaryandfixedwing)
engagedinthecurrentcampaignarefullynightcapable.ThisisamajorproblemforDaesh
whichwillnowhavetooperateinanextremelydangerousenvironment24hoursaday.The
solution?Camouflageanddispersal.Daeshforceswillhavetolearntopaymuchmore
attentiontoavoidingdetection,includingradiodetection,andtheywillhavetoavoidas
muchaspossibleanydetectableconcentrations.Notaneasytask,forsure,butonewhich
hasbeensuccessfullylearnedbyothersinthepast.
Second,Daeshforceswillhavetoadapttoguerrilla-style'hitandrun'kindsofattacks.Until
now,bothsideswerewillingtoengageinabizarrekindof"trenchwarfare"inwhicheach
sidewoulddiginandshelltheother.NowthatRussianbombersandcloseairsupport
aircraftcanbecalledinbytheSyrianfrontlinecommanders,thiswillbecomevery
dangerousforDaesh,probablyforcingthemtoswitchtofaster,ambushwarfare.
Third,mostsourcesagreethatcurrentlyDaeshcontrolsroughly80%ofthelandand20%
ofthepopulation.ThisismostlyduetothesizeoftheSyrianarmedforceswhichare
stretchedtoothintoholdontolightlypopulatedareas.Daeshcanusethattoitsadvantage
andtrytomovearoundanyattackingSyrianforcesandthenambushanyunitswhose
flanksandsupplyroutesarenotsecured.TheSyrianswillhavetobeverycarefulnottofall
intoa"cauldron"trapliketheUkrainiansinNovorussia.
Fourth,ifthingsbecomereallyuglyforDaesh,theycanstartusingtheTurkish,Iraqi,
LebaneseandJordanianborderstohidefromtheSyrian/Iranianforcesandenjoythekind
ofsafeheaventheAfghanshadinPakistanduringtheSovietinvasion.
Fifth,DaeshmightdowhattheUkrainianshavedoneandorganizeda'Russianatrocity'
falseflag,maybethebombingofapediatricclinicorhospital.Theycouldeventrya
"Russianchemicalattackinfeelingrefugees".Thecorporatemediawillbemorethan
happytopickupandspreadthestory,nomatterhowridiculous.
Finally,wecanbeabsolutelycertainthatiftheSyrianmilitaryis"too"successful,atleast
fromthepointofviewoftheEmpire,thenallthe"friendsofSyria"willjoinforcesand
demanda"peaceconference"whosemainpurposewillbetosaveDaeshfromcomplete
destruction.ThisisthestrategyusedbytheWestwiththeMinsk-1andMinsk-2peacetalks
tosavetheUkronazijuntafrommilitarydefeat.
TheworldhasseennumerousexamplesofDaesh-likeforces(inmilitary,notpolitical,
terms)adaptingtoatechnologicallysuperiorenemy.Rightnow,thegovernment's
superiorityisprimarilyintheskies(thankstotheRuAF)andinintelligence(thankstothe
OsNazGRUunitsonthegroundandtheRussian"eyesandears"intheskyandinspace).
Withtime,however,Russiancouldbringinnewequipment(modernmultiplerocket
launchers,TOS-1heavyflame-throwers,newerarmorandartillerysystems)whichcan
makearealdifferencebutattheendoftheday,itwillbe'boots',inthesenseofinfantry,
whichwilldecidetheoutcome.WilltheSyriansandKurdsbeenoughtobreakDaeshorwill
theIraniansmakeamove?Ihonestlydon'tknow,butmybetisonIranandHezbollah
movingin.AsforaRussianintervention,Putinhasnowtotallyexcludedsuchapossibility.
OptionsrecommendedbyUSpoliticians
USpoliticianshavecomeupwithtwosuggestionstohelptheir"moderateterrorists":
supplyadvancedanti-airmissilestoDaeshandimposeano-flyzone.Iconsiderbothof
thesesuggestionshighlyimpracticalandverydangerous.
Deliveringadvancedanti-airmissiles:whichones?!Daeshalreadyhasman-portableair
defensesystems(MANPADS)liketheUSStingersandRussianIglas.Thesearefine
missiles,buttheydon'thavethereachtohitRussianaircraftwhichmostlyflyat5000m.
True,theycanhitalowflyingtargetlikeaSU-25onacloseairsupportmissionoraMi-24
helicopter.Bothoftheseaircrafthavebeenheavilymodifiedduringandafterthewarsin
AfghanistanandChechniaandtheyarewell-protectedagainstsuchattacks.Still,sooneror
lateraRussianaircraftwillgethitbysuchamissileanditisevenpossiblethatitwillbe
downed.DaeshalreadyhasthiscapabilityandsendingthemmoreMANPADsjustmakes
nosensebutisverydangerousconsideringthekindofuseanyterroristgroupcanmakeof
themagainstcivilianairliners.SyriaisnotAfghanistanandwearenotinthe1980s.
MANPADsaresimplynotlikelytomakeamajordifferenceinthiswar,especiallynotagainst
thekindofaircrafttheRussiansarecurrentlydeploying.
Ano-flyzone:againstwhom,Russianaircraft?Foronething,thiswouldbeinsanely
provocativeandthepotentialconsequencesoftheUSshootingdownaRussianaircraftare
trulyterrifying.Butthisalsobegsthequestionofwheresuchazonewouldbecreated.
HillaryandtheotherNeoconcraziesaresuggestingano-flyzoneovernorthernSyria.
Okay,whatifinresponseRussiadeclaresanothernoflyzoneovertherestofthecountry?
Thenwhat?SettingasidetheinsanityofactuallythreateningtoattackRussiainmilitary
terms,inlegaltermstheEmpirehasnomandatetodeclaresuchazonewhileRussiais
standingon100%legalgroundsshouldshedeclareone.AndiftheEmpirereallygoes
crazyanddeclaresthatitwillimposeano-flyzoneoverallofSyriayoucanbeabsolutely
certainthatS-300swill"suddenly"showupinsufficientnumberstomakethatanextremely
dangerousexercise.Bytheway,atthatpoint,theRussianscandeclarethatalltheS-300s
inSyriaaremannedexclusivelybySyrianpersonnelandareunderSyriancommandand
thustheywillbeabletoshootdownUSaircraftintotalimpunity(astheyalreadyhaveinthe
pastinVietnamandLebanon).
Ano-flyzonemakessenseagainstadefenselesscountry,butagainstonearmedwith
semi-modernormodernairdefensesthisisaverydangerousproposition.Iwanttobelieve
thatthereareenoughmentallysanemenintheJCSandPentagontorejectanyplanwhich
canenduptriggeringanuclearwarbetweenRussiaandtheUSA.
The"sulkingsuperpower"
Rightnow,theUSAappearstobecompletelyclueless.First,theyaccusedtheRussiansof
bombingthe"wrong"terrorists.TheRussiansthenreplied"okay,giveusalistof"bad
terrorists"targetsandwewilldestroythem".TheAmericansrefused.ThentheRussians
toldthem,"okaythen,inthiscaseatleastgiveusalistof"goodterrorist"targetsnotto
bomb,andwewillnothitthem".ButtheAmericansrefusedagain!Atthispoint,the
RussianbeganmakingopenlyfunoftheAmericansandPutinevendeclaredthathis
American"partners"have"mushforbrains".
Furthermore,theUSAhavealsorefusedaRussianinvitationtosendmilitaryspecialiststo
theRussianGeneralStaffandnowtheyhaveapparentlyevenrefusedtoreceiveaRussian
militarydelegationheadedbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevhimself!Idon'tthinkIhave
everheardofa"sulkingsuperpower"butthatiswhatweareapparentlyobservingright
now.HowlongUncleSamwillcontinuetopoutinhiscornerisanyone'sguess,butthisis
clearlynotasustainablepolicy.Infact,itisnopolicyatall.
IseenosignoftheUSAhavingthecouragetolookatrealityandactaccordingly.Notonlyis
theObamaAdministrationatanabsolutelyunprecedentedlevelofincompetenceand
intellectualmediocrity,theupcomingPresidentialelectionisjustmakingthingsworse:with
bonafidepsychopathslikeHillary,McCainorFiorinamakingirresponsiblestatementsonan
almostdailybasis,theWhiteHousemustconstantlydodgeaccusationsofbeing"toosoft
onRussia".AndsincenoUSpoliticiancanaffordtotelltheAmericanpublicthebasictruth
thattheUSisnotomnipotent,USpoliticiansarestuckinaneverendingracetoprovehow
"tough"theyareon"defense".AsfortheEuropeans,theyprobablyhavethebrainstosee
alloftheabove,butwhattheylackisthespinetosayanythingtotheirAmericanoverlords.
JustlikeintheUkraine,theWesthasmadecreatedatotalmessandnowiscompletely
cluelessastowhattodoaboutit.
Russianoptions
Contrarytotheimpressiongivenbythewesternmedia,theRussianforceinSyriaisstilla
verysmallone.ThemainreasonforthatisthattheairfieldnearLatakiasimplycannot
accommodatealargerRussianforce.AsfarasIknow,therearenootherlocationsinSyria
whereRussiacoulddeploymoreaircraft.True,thenumberofsortiesflownbythe
RussianshasbaffledUSAFexpertswhocouldneverhaveachievedthatkindoffigureswith
USaircraftandpilots.Still,theRussianforceissmallandvulnerable.Ofcourse,oneoption
fortheRussianswouldbetoexpandtheairfieldnearLatakia,butthatwouldtaketimeand
moreresourcesandmyunderstandingisthattheywanttoconsolidatetheircurrentairfield
first.However,asastop-gapmeasure,theRussianscoulduseRussian-basedbombers.If
IranallowsRussiatoconductin-airrefuelinginIranianairspaceorifIranallowsRussiato
useIranianairbases,thenmanymoreSU-34/SU-35SMorSU-34/SU-30SM"airforce
packages"thatcouldbeengagedinSyria.Intheory,RussiacouldevenprovideherTu-
22M3todelivergravitybombs,herTu-95MStodelivercruisemissilesandherTu-160to
delivereitheroneorboth.Idon'tthinkthatthereisanymilitarynecessitytousethese
strategicbombersrightnow,butitmightbeagoodideatodosoforpoliticalreasons-just
toflexsomemore'militarymuscle'andshowtheNeoconsthatRussiaisnottobemessed
with.Submarinelaunchedcruisemissileswouldalsowork,especiallyiflaunchedbya
RussiansubintheMediterraneanwhichtheUSNdidnotdetect.Whatiscertainisthatafter
thefirstvolleyofRussiancruisemissilestheUSwithdrewitsonlyaircraftcarrier-the
TheodoreRoosevelt-fromthePersianGulf.
[Sidebar:someRussianobservershavesuggestedthatthefirstvolleyofRussiancruise
missilesincluded26missilesbecausethe26thPresidentoftheUnitedStateswas
TheodoreRoosevelt,thenameoftheonlycarrierwhichwasinthePersianGulf,andthat
thiswasasubtlemessagetotheUSA.Dunno.Maybeso.Maybenot.Butifitisa
coincidence,itisaneatone.Whatiscertainisthatforthefirsttimeinaverylongwhile
therearenoUScarriersinthePersianGulf]
ThemainproblemwithanymilitaryescalationorincreasedRussianinvolvementisthat
PutinwouldhavetosellittotheRussianpublicwhich,atleastsofar,hasbeentotally
supportive,butwhichisgenerallywearyof"missioncreep"andopenendedmilitary
commitments(forexample,mostRussiansopposeanovertRussianinterventioninthe
Donbass).Sofar,theKremlinhasdoneasuperbPRjobexplainingthatDaeshisadirect
threattoRussiaandthatitwasbetterforRussiato"fightthemovertherethanoverhere".
Thislogic,however,ispredicatedontheideathataverylimitedRussianinterventioncantip
thebalance.Thereisaveryfineconceptuallinebetweentippingthebalanceandfighting
someoneelse'swarandthatissomethingtheKremlinisacutelyawareof.Hopefully,this
linewillneverbecrossed.
[returntoContents]
#14
MiddleEastEye
www.middleeasteye.net
October16,2015
Obamawon'tadmittherealtargetsofRussianairstrikes
NooneisdiscussingtherealitythattheRussianoffensiveistargetingthebiggestmilitant
threattotheAssadregime
ByGarethPorter
GarethPorterisanindependentinvestigativejournalistandwinnerofthe2012Gellhorn
Prizeforjournalism.HeistheauthorofthenewlypublishedManufacturedCrisis:The
UntoldStoryoftheIranNuclearScare.
TheUSresponsetoRussia'snewSyrianmilitarycampaigninsupportoftheAssadregime
hasstruckaposeofmoralsuperioritybyarguingthattheRussianshavenotbeentargeting
theIslamicStatebutratherthenon-ISISSyrianoppositiontotheAssadregime.
ThatUSresponseissuperficiallyaccuratebutdeliberatelymisleading.Althoughthe
RussiansarenotfocusingontargetsinISIS-controlledterritory,thereisaverygood
reason:itisnotISISbuttheforcesalignedwithal-Qaeda'sSyrianfranchise,Jabhatal-
Nusraoral-NusraFront,thatposethemostimmediatethreattotheveryexistenceofthe
Assadregime.
InaseriesofstatementsontheRussianmilitarycampaign,theUSDefenceDepartment
hashammeredtheRussiansfornottargetingISISasMoscowinitiallyclaimed-lateronthe
Russianrhetoricshiftedto"terrorists".TheUSstatementsstronglyimpliedthatitwasthe
US-backed"moderate"SyriangroupsopposedtotheAssadregimethatarebeing
attacked.
MajornewsmediahavetakenthesamelineincoveringtheRussianoffensive.Inan
AssociatedPressstoryon13October,forexample,KenDelaniandescribedtheCIAas
supplying"so-calledmoderaterebelstoopposeAssad"formorethantwoyears,alongwith
its"Araballies"andthatAmericanofficials"havewatchedinrecentdaysastheRussian
bombsandmissileshavetargetedthosegroups".
DelanianevenquotedJeffreyWhiteoftheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy
(WINEP),thethinktanksupportingIsraeliinterests,whocomplainedthattheUnitedStates
hadabandoneditsmoderateallies."We'vealignedourselvestotheseguys,wetrained
themandpaidthemandsentthemofftobattle,andwhenthegoinggetstough,we'renot
there,"saidWhite.
Butthisframingoftheissuefundamentallymis-representsthesituationinSyriaby
conjuringupanon-existentpowerfulUS-backed"moderate"forcewhiledivertingattention
fromtherealthreatposedbyal-Qaeda'sSyrianfranchise.TheRussiansarenothitting
someimaginarysetof"moderate"SyrianarmedgroupsopposingtheAssadregimethey
areoverwhelminglyfocusedontargetingthemilitarycommandinwhichal-NusraFrontis
thecentralstrategicforce.
ThemapspinpointingthelocationsoftheRussianstrikessince30Septemberpublishedin
variousnewspapersandonthewebsiteoftheInstituteforStudyofWar-theoriginal
sourcefortheothermaps-allshowveryclearlythattheyareoverwhelminglyconcentrated
inIdlibprovince,theadjoiningHamaprovince,andareasofLatakiaprovincenearIdlib.But
thatfactdoesnottakeonsignificanceunlessitisrecalledthattheal-NusraFront-al
Qaeda'sfranchiseinSyria-andthe"ArmyofConquest"linkedtoit,unexpectedlytook
controlofIdlibprovinceinamajormilitaryoffensiveinMarch.
ThatvictoryinIdlibwaswidelyreportedatthetimetobethebiggestturningpointinthe
Syrianwarinwellovertwoyearsandtorepresentbyfarthemostseriouschallengetothe
Assadregimesincethebeginningofthewar.Andalthoughanumberofsmallercommands
wereinvolvedintheIdliboffensive,al-NusraFront's3,000troopsrepresentedthemajority
oftheforcesinvolvedinthefight.Andaccordingtoawell-informedsource,al-Nusraandits
closejihadistallyAhraral-Shamaccountedfor90percentofthetroops.
Wenowknow,moreover,thattheIdlibcampaignwasthedirectresultofapolicydecision
bySaudiArabiaandQatar,withUSapproval,tosupportthecreationofthe"Armyof
Conquest"andprovideitwithnewmilitaryhardwarethatwasacrucialfactorinthat
campaign:theTOWanti-tankmissile.LizSlyoftheWashingtonPostrevealedinastoryon
11OctoberthatTOWmissileshadbeendeliveredtoSyrianarmedgroupsundera
programmecoordinatedbetweentheCIAandtheSaudis.SlyfurthernotesthattheCIA-
suppliedTOWmissilesweresoimportanttorebelswhomade"gainsinnorthwestSyria"
thattheyhavecalledthemissilethe"AssadTamer".
"Itisnoaccident,"Slyreported,"thatthefirsttargetsofRussianairstrikesinSyriawerethe
locationswhererebelsarmedwithTOWmissleshavemadethemostsubstantialgainand
wheretheymostdirectlythreatenAssad'sholdonpower".Thatisanobviousreferenceto
theforcesthattookoverIdlibprovinceinMarch.ButSlyneverreferstothe"Armyof
Conquest"victoryinIdliboracknowledgesthatal-NusraFrontwasthemainbenefactorof
theCIAprogramme.Herstoryquotesaproponentoftheprogramme,formerUS
ambassadorRobertFord,asassuringusthatthesystempreventedthemissilesfrom
"fallingintoextremisthands,"andthathewasawareofonlytwoTOWmissileshavingbeen
obtainedbyal-Nusra.
SlyreportedaverydifferentstoryinMarch,however,afterthedissolutionofHarakatHazm,
themainCIA-supported"moderaterebelgroup"remaininginthenorth,followingits
completedefeatbyal-NusraFront.Thevictoriousal-Nusraannouncedpublicly,according
toSly'sreport,thatithadseizedtheTOWanti-tankmissilestheCIAhadsuppliedto
HarakatHazmwhenitoccupiedthegroupsheadquartersnearAleppo.Moreover,the
SaudisreportedlyhadownershipofTOWmissiles,andtheyandtheQatarishadalready
beenfunnelingarmstoal-NusraFront,asVice-PresidentJoeBidenrevealedinOctober
2014.
Itisastonishingthatatthislatedate,anyoneinthemediacouldstillbeseriouslysuggesting
thattheCIAsomehowmanagedtoturnthe"moderate"Syrianrebelsintoapowerful
offensiveforcethreateningtheAssadregimeinthenorth.SincetheIdlibvictory,itis
generallyunderstoodthattheprimarythreattodrivetheAssadregimefrompowercomes
fromal-NusraFrontandtheforcesalliedwithit,andnotfromtheIslamicState-and
certainlynotthemythical"moderaterebels".
ItiseasytounderstandwhytheObamaadministrationisnotinterestedintalkingaboutthe
roleofal-NusrainthepresentSyrianpolitical-militarysituation.AccordingtoSly'ssource,
thecovertoperationtoprovidetheTOWmissilestotheArmyofConquestwasaimedat
putting"sufficientpressureonAssad'sforcestopersuadehimtocompromisebutnotso
muchthathisgovernmentwouldprecipitouslycollapseandleaveadangerouspower
vacuum".
TheObamaadministrationstrategyonSyriaassumedadegreeofcontrolthatisso
obviouslyunrealisticthatitwasinherentlyriskytothepointofrecklessness.Thatiswhyno
oneintheadministrationorthenewsmediaisdiscussingtherealitythattheRussian
offensiveistargetingthebiggestjihadistthreattotheAssadregime.
[returntoContents]
#15
ProjectSyndicate
October15,2015
TestingPutininSyria
ByRichardN.Haass
RichardN.Haass,PresidentoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,previouslyservedas
DirectorofPolicyPlanningfortheUSStateDepartment(2001-2003).
NEWYORK-TherehasbeennoshortageofscrutinyofwhatRussianPresidentVladimir
PutinisuptoinSyriaandwhy.Muchoftheanalysis,though,hasbeennarrowlyfocusedon
theshorttermandmaybetoonegativeinassessinghisactions'likelylong-term
consequences.
WhatweknowisthatPutinhasdecidedtocometotheaidofBasharal-Assad'sembattled
regime.Russianbombsandmissilesarenowrainingdownonanarrayofarmedgroups
thathavebeenfightingSyriangovernmentforces,whichhasgiventheregimethebreathing
spacethatRussia'sinterventionwasintendedtoprovide.
AsbadastheAssadgovernmentis,andasmuchasithastoanswerfor,thisoutcomeis
arguablypreferableintheshortruntotheregime'scollapse.ThepainfultruthinSyriatoday
isthatagovernmentimplosionwouldmostlikelyleadtogenocide,millionsmoredisplaced
people,andtheestablishmentoftheIslamicState'sso-calledcaliphateinDamascus.
Putin'smotivesareamatterofspeculation,butitwouldappearthathedidnotwanttosee
Russia'slong-termallyintheMiddleEastfall.Moreover,henevermissesanopportunityto
remindtheworldthatRussiaremainsamajorpower,ableandwillingtoactonbehalfofits
perceivedinterests.Itisalsopossiblethathesoughttodistractdomesticattentionfroma
shrinkingeconomyandtherisingcostofinterventioninUkraine.Putin'shighapproval
ratingssuggesthemaywellbesucceeding.
ManyfearthatRussia'slatestactivismwillnotonlyprolongSyria'sbrutalcivilwar,butalso
strengthentheIslamicState.Thiscouldwellturnouttobethecase,ashatredoftheAssad
regimeisamajorrecruitingtool.And,thusfaratleast,theIslamicStateseemstobealow
priorityfortheRussianmilitary,whichappearstobeattackingmainlyotheranti-Assad
groups.
Indeed,therehavebeenreportsoftheIslamicStatemovingintoareasthatothershave
abandonedfollowingRussianattacks.Russiaseemstobeplayingthesamecynicalgame
asAssad:framingthewarasabinarychoicebetweentheIslamicStateandaregimethat,
howeverflawed,stilldeservestheworld'ssupport.
SomealsofearthatthisdemonstrationofRussianassertivenesspresagesanewwaveof
suchinterventions,evenanewColdWar.Butthisisunlikely,iffornootherreasonthanthat
Russialackstheeconomicandmilitarymeanstosustainsucheffortsonmultiplefronts.It
isalsonotclearthattheRussianpeoplearepreparedtopayahighpriceforsuchaforeign
policy.
SoitallcomesdowntoPutin,whoenjoysadegreeofautonomyinKremlindecision-
makingnotseensincetheStalinera.Putiniswidelyknowntobeamartial-artsenthusiast,
andhisactioninSyriaisentirelyconsistentwithmanyofthediscipline'sprinciples,
includingtheimportanceofthedecisivethrustthatneutralizestheopponent'sstrengths
andexploitshisweaknesses.
Butforcehasitslimits.Russia'sinterventioninSyriacannotsucceedifsuccessisdefined
asenablingtheAssadgovernmenttoregaincontroloverthebulkofthecountry'sterritory.
Putin'spolicycan,atmost,establisharelativelysecureenclave.
Eventhismodestaimwillprovecostly,becausetheIslamicStateisalsobecoming
stronger.AnditcouldproveexpensivetoRussiaitself:itisonlyamatteroftimebefore
suicidebombings(suchastherecentattackinAnkara)occurinMoscow.
Therealquestion,then,iswhetherPutinseesbolsteringtheAssadgovernmentasanend
initselforasameanstoanend.Ifitisthelatter-ifPutinisthinkingintermsofchess,the
preferredgameofmanyRussians,andplanningseveralmovesahead-adiplomatic
process,inwhichAssadisremovedatsomepoint,isconceivable.Russiamightsupport
suchaprocessafterall,Putinisnotknownforhissentimentality.Indeed,hemight
embraceapoliticalprocessthatenabledhimtodemonstrateRussia'scentralrolein
shapingthefutureoftheMiddleEast.
Inthemeantime,theUnitedStatesandothersshouldpursueatwo-trackpolicy.Onetrack
wouldchannelstepstoimprovethebalanceofpoweronthegroundinSyria.Thismeans
doingmoretohelptheKurdsandselectSunnitribes,aswellascontinuingtoattackthe
IslamicStatefromtheair.
Relativelysafeenclavesshouldemergefromthiseffort.ASyriaofenclavesorcantons
maybethebestpossibleoutcomefornowandtheforeseeablefuture.NeithertheUSnor
anyoneelsehasavitalnationalinterestinrestoringaSyriangovernmentthatcontrolsallof
thecountry'sterritorywhatisessentialistorollbacktheIslamicStateandsimilargroups.
ThesecondtrackisapoliticalprocessinwhichtheUSandothergovernmentsremain
opentoRussian(andevenIranian)participation.ThegoalwouldbetoeaseAssadoutof
powerandestablishasuccessorgovernmentthat,ataminimum,enjoyedthesupportof
hisAlawitebaseand,ideally,someSunnis.
SuchaprocessmightwellconferprestigeonPutin.Thatwouldbeapriceworthpayingifit
contributedtoadynamicthatovertimereducedboththesufferingoftheSyrianpeopleand
thedangerposedbytheIslamicState.
[returntoContents]
#16
www.rt.com
October17,2015
WhyRussiahadtointerveneinSyria
ByDrAlexanderYakovenko,RussianAmbassadortotheUnitedKingdomofGreatBritain
andNorthernIreland,Deputyforeignminister(2005-2011).
CombatinginternationalterrorismhaslongbeenoneofthetopprioritiesofRussia'sforeign
policy.Wehavebeenconsistentlyadvocatinggenuinelyglobaleffortsincounteringthisevil.
Thefightagainstterrorismmustbeconductedonauniversallegalbasis,startingwiththe
UNCharter.ThatiswhyRussiahasbeenunabletojointheUS-led"globalcoalition"against
IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL).Thecoalitionwasestablishedincircumventionofthe
UNSecurityCouncil,anditsoperationsinSyriaviolatethesovereigntyofthatcountry.
ThefightagainstIScangainlegitimacyonlythroughaUNSecurityCouncilmandate.Sofar
theSecurityCouncilhasbeenblockedbyattemptsofagroupofstatestoimposean
ideologicalapproachtothisdirectcommonthreat.TheRussiandraftresolutionon
combatingterroristgroupsintheMiddleEast,whilerespectingtheindependenceof
countriesoftheregion,remainsonthetable.
Russiacallsforestablishingabroadcounter-terroristfront.Addressingrobustlythethreat
ofISandotherterroristgroupsintheregion,requiresajointandcoordinatedactionbyall
thosewhoarealreadyfightingISISontheground.ThoseincludetheSyrianandIraqi
armies,theKurdishandShiamilitias,andgroupsofpatrioticoppositioninSyria.Therecent
meetingsattheUNGeneralAssemblyhaveshownthatnobodyisenthusedattheprospect
ofdestructionoftheregionalarchitectureandreplacementofsecularstateswithan
extremist"caliphate".
Whilethosediplomaticeffortsaregainingmomentum,Russiaremainstheonly
internationalplayerwhosemilitaryactionsinSyriahasalegalbasisintheformofthe
requestofthegovernmentinDamascus.OurairstrikesinSyriaaresolelyfocusedonthe
eliminationoftheterroristthreatinthatcountry.Asregardsthechoiceoftargets,the
RussianDefenceMinistryhasshownanunprecedentedopenness,providing
comprehensiveanddetailedinformationoneverysingleoperationoftheRussianAirForce,
onadailybasis.YetanyinformationthatourpartnerscanshareregardingpotentialIS
targetstobehit,willbehighlyappreciated.Sofarourrespectiverequestshavenotbeen
respondedto.
Russia'sactionsarealreadybringingtangibleresultsontheground.Severalhundredair
strikeshavesignificantlydegradedthecommandandlogisticalinfrastructureofIS.Thisis
instarkcontrastwiththewidelyrecognizedandadmittedinefficiencyoftheUS-led
coalition.Aftermorethanayearofbombing,ISrankshaveswollen,theircontroloversome
regionshasstrengthened,andfinancialflowshavebeensteady.
TheaccusationthatISisaproductofRussia's"insistence"onkeepingPresidentAssadin
powerisabsolutelyuntenable.WhatistrueisthattheweakeningoftheSyrianauthorities
causedbytheoutsideinterferencehasledtovacuumandvastzonesofanarchy
throughoutthecountry,whichwerefilledbyterrorists.Theso-calledmoderateopposition
wasledtobelievethataWesternmilitaryinterventionwouldengineera"regimechange,"
thatsomebodywouldfightforthem.Consequently,ascivilwarraged,polarizationleftlittle
roomforthosemisledgroups.
Indeed,whilesolvingtheproblemofterrorism,wecertainlymustfacilitatethelaunchofa
UN-ledfocusedandcomprehensivepoliticalprocessbasedontheGenevacommuniquof
30June2012.Defeatingterroristswillhelpcreatetherightconditionsforalastingpolitical
settlement.Itwillbethebestwaytoputanendtothecivilconflictandachieve"peace
withoutvictory",somethingthattheEntentepowerscouldn'tstomachin1918.
[returntoContents]
#17
MoscowTimes
October17,2015
One-ThirdofRussiansThinkRussianMilitaryIsWorld'sBest
ByMatthewBodner
Almostone-thirdofRussiansthinktheirnation'smilitaryisthemostpowerfulintheworld,
accordingtoanewpollpublishedbytheRussianPublicOpinionResearchCenter
(VTsIOM)onThursday.
ThesurveycomestwoweeksafterRussiabeganairstrikesinSyriathathavedominated
televisionnewscoverage-mostofwhichhavepresentedthecampaignasaresounding
success.
ItshowedthatRussiansaremoreconfidentabouttheirnation'smilitarypowerthaninthe
finalyearsoftheSovietUnion,whenthecountrywasarecognizedglobalsuperpower.
Thirty-twopercentofrespondentstothepollpublishedFridaysaidRussia'smilitarywas
thestrongestintheworld,comparedtoonly5percentin1990.Another49percentsaidin
Friday'ssurveythattheRussianarmedforceswereamongtheplanet'smostpowerful,
comparedto21percentin1990.
In1990,almosthalfofRussianssaidtheSovietarmedforceseitherlaggedbehindtherest
oftheworldorwereflat-outweak.
Inpart,thechangeinattitudesreflectsamassivemodernizationdriveoverinrecentyears.
PresidentVladimirPutinhasoverseena20trillionruble($326billion)rearmamentprogram,
begunin2011,thatisaimedatreversingnearlytwodecadesofdeclineinthearmed
forces.
Theprogramisalreadyyieldingresults.Russia'sairforceandnavyinSyriahas
successfullyconductedmoderncombatoperations,sometimesusingadvancedprecision
weapons.Butanalystsagreethatinmostareasthecountry'smilitarytechnology
significantlylagstheU.S.,aswellasBritain,GermanyandFrance.
Thisyear,Russianmilitaryspendingisexpectedtohitapost-Soviethighof3.1trillion
rubles($50.5billion),oraround4percentofthecountry'sgrossdomesticproduct.Askedif
thiswastoomuchtospendonthemilitary,just35percentofrespondentstoFriday'spoll
saidyes,while52percentsaidthegovernmentisn'tspendingenough.
ThesurveywasconductedfromOct.10-11andpolled1,800peopleacrossRussia.The
marginoferrordidnotexceed3.5percent.
[returntoContents]
#18
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
October17,2015
LifestyleandIdentity
ByPaulRobinson
UniversityofOttawa
[Chartherehttp://irrussianality.wordpress.com/2015/10/17/lifestyle-and-identity/]
TheLevadaCentrehasjustissuedtheresultsofanewsurvey.Accordingtothispoll,a
majorityofRussians(53%)donotfeelthattheirvaluesystemandself-identityalignatall
withthoseoftheWest.Inaddition,45%regardthe'Westernlifestyle'(whichwasnot
defined)negatively,andonly30%regarditpositively.Theresultsareshownhere.
TOWHATDEGREEDOYOUCURRENTLYFEELTHATYOURVALUESYSTEMAND
SELF-IDENTITYALIGNWITHTHOSEOFWESTERNCULTURE?
Feb.93Oct.08Sept.14Sept.15
Ifeelthiswayatalltimes1322
Thisisfairlyimportanttome571210
Thisisnotveryimportanttome16323728
Idon'tfeelthisatall50544353
OVERALL,HOWDOYOUFEELABOUTTHE"WESTERNLIFESTYLE":POSITIVELYOR
NEGATIVE
Oct.08Sept.14Sept.15
Positively463430
Negatively304245
Thesurveyalsofoundthat5%ofrespondentswoulddefinitelyliketomovetotheWestto
work,and18%wouldprobablydosoiftheycould,while30%probablywouldn'tand36%
definitelywouldn't(therestdidn'tknow).Thesefiguresarealmostunchangedfrom2008.
TheprimaryreasonsgivenforwantingtomovetotheWestwereeconomic(betterliving
conditionsbeingthemostcommonlycited)ratherthanpolitical.Youngerpeople(18-29),
thosewithuniversityeducation,andthosewhospokeforeignlanguagesandtravelled
regularlyabroadweregenerallymorepositivelyinclinedtotheWestandmorelikelytowant
tolivethere.
Lookingatallthis,Isuspectthattheanswerstothe'lifestyle'questionareratherless
significantthanthosetothemoregeneral'self-identity'question,inlargepartbecause,as
thechartsaboveshow,theyhavechangedmuchmoreovertimeandsomaybemore
reflectiveofcurrentpoliticaldifferencesratherthandeeply-heldbeliefs.Theymaytherefore
bemorelikelytochangeagaininthefuture.
Russianviewsaboutwhattheyimaginethe'Westernlifestyle'tobehaveineffectflipped
180degreesoverthepastsevenyears:46%positiveand30%negativein2008,but30%
positiveand45%negativein2015.AdislikeofWesternforeignpolicymightwellbeafactor
inthischange,asmightafeelingthattheWesthasbecomedecadentandexcessively
liberal,whileRussiahasretainedamoreconservativeoutlook.Nevertheless,Iamnot
convincedthatthisapparentdivergenceofvaluesisalastingphenomenon.Thecurrent
levelofinternationaltensiondoesnothavetobepermanent,andthevaluesdifferencesare,
Ithink,overblown.MostRussiansseemveryhappytoindulgeinWestern-style
consumerismifgiventhechance,andRussianpopularcultureisnotobviouslyanyless
'decadent'thanthatoftheWest.IstronglysuspectthatifRussian-Westernrelationswere
toimprove,answerstothelifestylequestionwouldswitchrapidlybacktowheretheywere
sevenyearsago.
Thesamecan'tbesaidofRussians'failuretoself-identifyasWestern.The53%whose
self-identityis'notatall'Westernisanalmostidenticalfiguretothe50%whofeltthatway
in1993andthe54%whodidsoin2008.Itseemsthatthereisalong-standingsense
amongamajorityofRussiansthattheyaredistinctfromtheWest.Thissenseisnotjusta
productofcurrentinternationaltensions,anditislikelytopersist.
Oneoftheparadoxesofglobalizationisthatinsomecasesitmayactuallyaccentuate
perceptionsofculturaldifference.Lifestyleandidentityhavetobeseparated.Whatthe
LevadapollsuggeststomeisthatthefactthatRussiansareadoptingcertainWestern
waysoflivingdoesn'tnecessarilymeanthattheywillgrowtofeelmoreWestern.
[returntoContents]
#19
Russia&IndiaReport
http://in.rbth.com
October17,2015
MovingawayfromaWest-centricoutlook
AjayKamalakaran,RIR
BeforewritingthiscolumnIwouldliketomakeitabsolutelyclearthatIamnotanti-West,
andtherearealotofthingsaboutwesterncountriesthatIabsolutelyadmire.However,I
findthisneedamongmanyinfluentialpeopleinRussiatohavewesternapprovalabsolutely
cringe-worthy.
Overthelasttwoandahalfdecades,theAmericanfilmandtelevisionindustryhas
managedtocompletelycapturetheRussianmarket.It'sincrediblydifficulttofindaRussian
filmbeingscreenedinMoscow.ThecinemahallsmostlyshowdubbedHollywoodpictures.
ThisdominationoftheRussianculturalspacebytheU.S.anditsallieshasledtomany
Russiansseeingtheirowncountrythroughawesternprism.
WhiletheremaybesomejustificationforcallingStPetersburgthe'VeniceoftheNorth,why
isVladivostokcalledthe'RussianSanFrancisco?'Thelistgoesonwithsomesmaller
regionsintheCaucasusbeinglabeledthe'SwitzerlandofRussia.'AsniceasVenice,San
FranciscoandSwitzerlandare,theyhavetheirplusandminuspointsjustlikeanyother
placeonearth.TheproblemwithmanyRussiansisthattheyblindlyacceptthehypeover
placesintheWestandtryoverlyhardtoequatetheirowncitieswithbenchmarkssetin
EuropeandtheU.S.
ThislackofselfconfidenceandneedforapprovalfromtheWestwerethedirectresultof
perestroikaandthelosingofsuperpowerstatus.Ithashoweverbeenalmostaquarterofa
centurysincetheUSSRcollapsed.Overthistime,Russiahasmanagedtoreviveand
reinventitself.Thecountryisblessedwithsomuchnaturalbeautyandsomeofthemost
charmingcitiesintheworld.It'stimetodevelopthickskinandnolongercarewhatthe
Westthinks.
ItaketheexampleofacountrylikeIndiathatisconstantlyundersiegefromthewestern
mediaanditslocal'sepoys.'Noarticlepublishedbyawesternnewspaperorwireservice
onIndia'sachievementswouldbecompletewithoutamentionofthecountry'spoverty.
Whetherit'sthespaceprogramorsomemassiveinfrastructureproject,somewhereorthe
other,therewillbealineaboutthepercentageofpeoplelivingbelowthepovertylineinthe
country.Thesamegoeswithwesternnewsagenciesandtheirphotodesks.Apoorperson,
acoworsomesignofpovertyisanessentialpartofaphotographofIndia.
AsIndiacontinuestogroweconomicallyandtakestherightstepstoeradicatepoverty,an
increasingnumberofIndiansjustdonotcareaboutbiasedmediacoveragefromtheWest.
Theprevailingwisdominthecountryisonthelinesof'letthemwallowintheirown
ignorance.'WhiletherearethoseincitieslikeUdaipur,whocalltheircity,'theVeniceofthe
East,'thedecision-makersinthestateofRajasthanaremorekeentopromotetheir
beautifulculturethanfallingpreytosuchsillycomparisons.
Russiansneedtodevelopthickskinandhaveasimilarattitudetowardswesternnegativity.
Overthelastdecade,therehasbeenaclearlyvisibleimprovementininfrastructureand
standardsoflivingacrossRussia.Butwe'llneverreadaboutthisinanywestern
publication.IfsomethingunusuallynegativehappensinaSiberianvillage,ithasagreat
chanceofmakingheadlinesaroundtheworld.
It'samazinghowEuropeanshavethereasoningandlogictoseparateAmericanforeign
policyfromculture,butstilljeeratRussianperformersattheEurovisioncontest.Formany
intheWest,theaggressiveAmericanmilitaryadventuresdonotequalAmericanpeople,
butdifferentyardsticksgeteasilyappliedtoRussia.Ofcourse,thisistheresultofyearsof
veryeffectivebrainwashing.
RussiahastremendousgoodwillinAsia,theBalkans,AfricaandLatinAmerica.It'stimeto
capitalizeandbuildonthis.ManypeopleintheseregionswanttoseeRussianshavethe
samekindofconfidenceintheircountryastheydidintheheydayoftheUSSR.
Thefirststepontheroadtobuildingthisconfidenceisde-hyphenationwiththeWest.Let
usstopthecomparisonswithVeniceandSanFrancisco(andthefreepublicitythesecites
keepgetting)whenwetalkaboutStPetersburgandVladivostok.Russianeedstocreateit
owntourismbranddistinctandfreeoftheWest.Ofcourse,itwouldbenicetohavemore
westerntouristsinRussia,buttheworldiscertainlynotjusttheWest.Thisisprecisely
whatsomedecision-makersinRussianeedtounderstand.
Tailpiece:
Givenalltherestorationandredevelopmentgoingonacrossthecountry,Russiancitieswill
beattheirbestwhenthecountryhoststhe2018FIFAWorldCup.Thesportingcarnivalis
Russia'sbestopportunitytoshowcaseitselftotheworld.Noamountofnegativemedia
coveragewillbeabletooffsetwhatfootballfansfromaroundtheworldwillseewiththeir
owneyes.
[returntoContents]
#20
FinancialTimes
October17,2015
God'sTV,Russianstyle
ByCourtneyWeaver
CourtneyWeaveristheFT'sdeputyMoscowbureauchief
OnasunnyafternooninMoscow,theRussiantycoonKonstantinMalofeevisholdingcourt
inthestudiosofhisnewlylaunchedtelevisionchannelTsargradTV,dressedinadesigner
suit,abluesilkhandkerchiefpeekingfromhisbreastpocket.Abovehimisamakeshift
cathedralcupolaweighinginathalfatonne.Behindhimare24ft-highwindowsthrough
whichtheKremlin'sredtowersarevisible,theirglasscommuniststarsglistening.
Malofeev,whohasthecheeksandfigureofamanwholikesagoodmeal,isinabuoyant
mood.Inasignofhisgrowingclout,hehasjusthadlunchwithtwooftherichestoligarchs
ontheForbeslist.YelenaMizulina,aleadingconservativesenator,whohascometo
Tsargrad'soffices,ispatientlywaitingforthebusinessmantofitinatte--ttebeforehe
departsonhissummerholiday.
Overthepastfewyears,Malofeev,41,hasmorphedintooneofRussia'smostinfluential
businessmenandlobbyists,inpartthankstohisdevoutRussianOrthodoxfaithand
conservativevalues,nowbackinvogueduringVladimirPutin'sthirdterm.Asthefounderof
privateequityfirmMarshallCapitalPartners,Malofeevaccumulatedsubstantialpersonal
wealth,largelythroughaninvestmentintheRussiantelecomsgiantRostelecom.(His
friendIgorShchegolev,afellowRussianOrthodoxandnowPutinadviser,wastelecoms
ministeratthetime.)Nowheispayingitbackasaself-styledChristianphilanthropistand
oneofPutin'sloudestideologicalsupporters.
ItisaspartofthisnextactthatMalofeevhaslaunchedTsargradTV,hisownRussian
OrthodoxTVchannel,whichaimstoputaconservativeyetmodernspinonglobalnews.In
June,TsargradbeganbroadcastingdailyonSpas,areligiouschannelrunbytheRussian
OrthodoxChurch,inadditiontoanonlineplatform.AccordingtoMalofeev,Tsargrad's
closestinternationalequivalentisFoxNewsintheUS,makinghimsomethingofaRussian
RogerAiles.
"WhenFoxNewsenteredtheAmericanmarketinaround1996to1997,theywerevery
differentfromCNNandABC.Foxtalkedaboutthingsthatpeoplewoulddiscussamong
themselvesintheirkitchensbutwhichotherchannelsweretooscaredtosay,ordidn't
wanttosayonair,"Malofeevsaysexcitedly."InmanywaysTsargradissimilartowhatFox
Newshasdone.Westartedfromtheideathattherearemanypeoplewhoadhereto
traditionalvaluesandtheyabsolutelyneedavoice."
ThenodtoFoxisnotaccidental.TogetTsargradTVupandrunning,MalofeevhiredJack
Hanick,oneofFoxNews'sfoundingproducers,whomhemetwhentheywereboth
speakersataMoscowconferenceonmoralityinthemedia."Theyputusallintheroom
andIthought,anotherspeaker,great,"Hanicksays."Heseemedlikeaveryhumbleguy.I
hadnoideahehadalotofpowerorpoliticalpull.I'mstillnotsurewhathehas."
BornintheMoscowsuburbsin1974,Malofeevstudiedtobealawyerbutswitchedto
investmentbankingascapitalismtookholdtowardstheendofthe1990s.By2005,atthe
ageof31,hehadfoundedhisprivateequityfirmMarshallCapitalPartners.Itwasat
universitythathesayshefoundGod,andthroughouthisbusinesscareerhehascultivated
animageofamanoftheRussianOrthodoxChurch.
ConnectingMalofeevtoleadingRussianandwesternconservativesislikeplayingafar-
right,OrthodoxversionofSixDegreesofKevinBacon.InKremlincircles,thetycoon
mingleswithShchegolevandVladimirYakunin,theformerchiefofRussia'sstaterailways
company.Inthewest,hehasbeenlinkedwithFrance'sMarineLePenandisacquainted
withUSpresidentialcandidateRandPaul.PanosKammenos,theformerGreekdefence
minister,hasbeenaguestathiscountryestate.
MalofeevgainedfurthernotorietyduringtheUkraineconflictin2014,afterheemergedas
oneofthekeyfigureslinkingpro-RussiaforcesineastUkrainewiththeMoscowpolitical
establishment.Oneofhisformeremployees,AlexanderBorodai,wasatonepointtheself-
declaredDonetskPeople'sRepublicprimeministeranother,IgorGirkin,brieflyservedas
thepro-Russianrebels'chiefmilitarycommander.TheconnectionslandedMalofeevunder
EUandUSsanctionslastyear.Ukraine'sinteriorministryhasaccusedhimoffinancing
"illegalarmedgroups"andbrandedhima"sponsorofterrorists".
Malofeevhasdeniedtheallegations,whichhaveplayedwellforhimdomestically.
AccordingtoSergeiMarkov,awell-connectedpro-Kremlinanalyst,theclaimshaveactually
boostedhisstandingasasuccessfullobbyistandideologue:"Malofeevendedupinthe
middleofallthesenewseventsaccidentallyenough,Ithink.Butwhenhedid,ofcoursehe
washappyaboutit.Itmeantthatallofhismoneyhadn'tbeenspentinvain."
ThenewTVchannelisthelatestexampleofMalofeevdoingwhathedoesbest:leveraging
hisOrthodoxcredentialsandwealthtocatapulthimselfintothezeitgeistofRussianpolitics.
WhilesomeoligarchswhotriedtogetinvolvedinTVintheearly2000swereexiledorjailed
underPutin'snewregime,Malofeevissofarenjoyingcarteblanchewithhischannel,which
heboastsisevenmorepatrioticthantheKremlin'sownstate-runTVstations."We've
alwaysstucktoourOrthodox,patriotic,imperialistpositions.Themainstreamhasn't."
Tsargard'sprimarygoal,Malofeevinsists,isaproselytisingone."Therearealotofpeople
whowearcrosses,identifyasChristiansbutatthesametimedon'tgotochurch,orgoto
churchjustonceayearforEaster.Ourjobistoreachouttothesepeopleandpavethe
waytothecathedralforthem."
Atthesametime,thechannelhasadoptedaclearanti-westerngeopoliticalstanceonthe
newsthatcanmakeRussianstateTVlooktamebycomparison.Inasegmentabout
migrantsthissummer,oneofthechannel'scorrespondentssuggestedthatEurope's
refugeecrisishadbeenthedeliberateworkofeitherGeorgeSorosortheRothschildfamily.
"TheRothschildsarecalledthemastersofmoney,"theanchortoldtheaudiencecalmly.
"Theirresourceismoneyandtheirgoalisworlddomination."
Inanothersegment,thetopicofRussianinterestrateswasusedasalaunchpadfor
discussingthequestionablemoralsofUSmonetarypolicy.AnewsitemaboutPlanned
Parenthoodturnedintoacautionaryexposon"AmericanSatanists"who"openly
supportedthekillingofchildren".
ThemastermindbehindTsargrad'seditorialideologyisAlexanderDugin,arightwing
ideologuewho,since1997,hascalledforRussiatorebuildaEurasianempire,
"constructedonthefundamentalprincipleofthecommonenemy"-primarilytheUSandits
exportedidealofliberalism.ADostoyevskianfigurewithpiercingeyesandalong,greying
beard,DuginsaysthatmanyRussiansareturningtoconservatismafterbeingdisillusioned
withtheliberalismpromotedbyBorisYeltsininthe1990s.
"Liberalismhasbeenstronglydiscreditedbythewest'spolitics,"Duginsays.Tsargrad,he
claims,reflectstheopinionofthissilentmajority."Ourgoalistotakepatrioticdiscourseout
oftheghettoitwaskeptinduringSovietandliberaltimes...Whenpeoplearen'toftengivena
chancetospeak,theyforgethowtotalksotheygruntormakefaces.It'sveryimportantto
givethesepeoplealanguage."
Oneofthemaindemographicstoidentifywiththisswingtowardsconservatismisyounger
Russians,Duginsays.OneofthemisAndreiAfanasiev,a26-year-oldTsargradnews
anchor.ThoughheusedtoworkfortheEnglish-languagechannelRussiaToday,speaks
fluentEnglishandhastravelledwidely,Afanasievsayshisexperienceofstudyingabroadin
Spainlefthimdisillusionedaboutthewest."ThelifestyleandvaluesoftheyoungpeopleI
sawthereweren'tclosetomine.Itwassickhedonism:consumerism,entertainment.
Everythingwasveryvulgar."
WithTsargrad,Afanasievsayshehasfoundawholenewgroupofpeoplewhosharehis
Orthodoxbeliefsandconservativevalues."Theconceptofourchannelisthatwe'realllike-
minded.It'sgreat!"hesays."Youcanenvyme:forthepastyearasajournalist,Ihavenot
oncegoneagainstmyheart."
IfirstgotaglimpseofhowTsargrad'sinternalideologywasshapingupduringavisittothe
studio,onMoscow'smaindrag,inlateApril,beforeitsofficiallaunch.Hanick,theformer
FoxNewsexecutive,wasintownandhelpingtheotherproducersprepareforaninterview
thateveningwithAlexeiVaits,aleaderoftheNightWolves,apro-Putinmotorbikegangthat
hasbecomeoneofthesymbolsofthenewbrandofRussiannationalism.Theatmosphere
waspandemonium.
WhileHanickhasthersumofanexperiencedTVproducer,helackstheRussian
languageskills."Zhen,couldyoulightthisup?"hesaidtoanon-English-speaking
employee,gesturingupattheimageofChristhangingabovetheset."Howdoyousay,
'Cupola!Lights!Pozhaluysta?'"heaskedsomewhatrhetorically,dousingtheRussianword
for"please"withaheavyNewYorkaccent.
ThecupolainquestionistheworkofIvanGlazunov,aprominentRussianOrthodoxartist.
Astheproducerspreparedfortheinterview,Glazunovoversawoneofhisassistants
paintingaplywoodcolumntomakeitlookmorelikeanElginmarble.Whenitwastimeto
shoot,thetwopainterswerebrusquelyshooedfromtheset."Fortheartist,thisisthe
compromise,"Glazunovsaiddrily.
Thestudio'sconcept,asHanick,putsit,is"Byzantiummeetsthe21stcentury".The
space'sloftywindowsandnaturallightarenottheeasiestfitforbroadcasttelevision.
"AnyonewhowantedtodoaTVstationwouldsaythatthisisanightmare,"Hanicksays.
Buthenotesthatthenaturallightaddsacertaintouchofholinesstotheproduction.
HanickwasraisedCatholicbutsaysheandhiswifenowhopetobaptisetheirsoninthe
RussianOrthodoxChurch,soinspiredhavetheybeenwiththeirexperienceatthechannel.
OnoneofhisfirsttripstoRussia,Hanicksaidthathehadbeenshownaroundseveral
churchesinMoscow."ItwasFebruaryandmiserablysnowingandeverychurchwas
packed,"hesays."Peoplewerestandingoutsideinthesnowandlisteningonspeakers.
AndIwasthinking,you'dneverseethisinAmerica."
RussiahasacomplexrelationshipwiththeOrthodoxChurch.DuringtheSovietperiod,
religionwasofficiallybanned,andallchurchpropertywasseized.Between1917andthe
SovietUnion'sfall,morethan300,000churchworkerswerekilledorimprisonedbythe
Sovietsecretpoliceandsecurityservices.ButsincethefalloftheSovietUnion,Orthodoxy
hasbecomenotjustpopularbutfashionable,saysGeraldineFagan,authorofBelievingin
Russia-ReligiousPolicyafterCommunism.Well-heeledMuscoviteshavestartedwearing
crossesroundtheirnecks.MostrestaurantsinRussia'sbigcitiesnowofferLentenmenus.
UnderPutin'sthirdterm,Orthodoxyhastakenontheadditionalroleofapoliticaltool,used
tounitethemostlyChristianpopulationagainstwesternliberalism,seenasthecauseof
the2012anti-governmentprotests.Inthewakeofthoseprotests,theKremlinpushedfora
2013lawbanningso-calledgaypropagandatominors,andjailedthepunkgroupPussy
Riotfora2012protestconcertinaMoscowchurch,whilepushingamorenationalist
agendaonstateTV.
ThemainconcernnowfortheRussianOrthodoxChurchisthat"religious,ideological,
nationalistdialogue"willreplacefaith,saysGeorgyMitrofanov,aStPetersburgpriest.
"ModernOrthodoxChristiansinRussiaarenotsomuchreligiouslymotivatedbychurchlife
astheyaresearchingforanewauthoritarianideologicalsystem,"hewarns.
AtTsargrad,therearesignsthatthechannel'sideologyisattractingabroadergroupof
supporters.YuriGrymov,aleadingRussianproducer,recentlysignedonasdirectorafter
workingatDozhd,Russia'ssoleoppositionTVchannel-andotherDozhdemployeesare
followingsuit."IwasaproduceronDozhdforayear-and-a-half,butwepartedways
becausewerealisedweweredifferent,"Grymovsaid."I'mfriendswithpeopleofdifferent
confessions,Iworkwithpeopleofdifferentconfessions.It'sjustthatrecentexperiencehas
shownmethatpeoplewhogotochurcharedifferentthanatheistsinawaythat'sforthe
better."
ForMalofeev,thisisallgoodnewsandlargelydowntooneman."UnderPutin25,000
churcheshavebeenbuilt.Canyoubelieveit?Twenty-fivethousandchurches!"Malofeev
exclaims."Inaddition,800monasterieswererestored,andthisEaster1.5millionpeoplein
Moscowwenttochurch-anewrecord.Thisisallhappeningbeforeoureyes.Putinhas
becomeahistoricalleader,thebestthatRussiahashadin100years,sincebeforethe
revolution.Wegotverylucky."
[returntoContents]
#21
PublicBooks
www.publicbooks.org
October15,2015
Russia,Today:Part1
EliotBorensteinandCarineClment
October15,2015-AmidtheannexationofCrimea,thefrozenconflictineasternUkraine,
andanemergingproxywarinSyria,manycommentatorshaveproclaimedthebeginningof
anewColdWarbetweenRussiaandtheWest.Butasideologuesoneithersidespread
theirmessagesthroughinternationalorganizationsandnewsmedia,ithasbecome
increasinglydifficulttounderstandthesecrisesandtheirorigins.TotheWest,theactions
ofVladimirPutin'scorruptregimeareerodingthefoundationsofthepostwarnation-state
andplungingtheworldfurtherintochaos.FromtheKremlin'svantage,ahypocritical,
decadentWesthasprecipitatedacoupinUkraineandexpandedNATOtoRussia's
doorstep.Freightedwithirreconcilablenarratives,disinformation,andmisleadinghistorical
analogies,scholarsandobserversalikeseemtolackavocabularytoadequatelydescribe
theWest'songoingdramawithRussia.
OursecondcollaborationbetweenPublicBooksandtheFrenchonlinejournalLaViedes
Ides/Books&Ideasseeksapathbeyondthisintellectualimpasse.Overthespaceofsix
articles,publishedinthreeparts,ourcontributorsexaminetheforcesthathaveledtoa
renewederaofglobaluncertainty.Inthisfirstpairofessays,AmericanslavicistEliot
BorensteinexaminesRussia'slove-haterelationshipwiththeWest,whileFrench
sociologistCarineClmentanalyzesthesystemthatsustainsPutin'sdomesticpower.In
ourNovember1issuewewillpublishasecondpairofarticlesbyPrincetonhistorian
EkaterinaPravilovaandFrenchphilosopherMichelEltchaninoff,followedonNovember15
bytwofinalpiecesbyAmericanlegalscholarMonicaEppingerandFrenchsociologist
CcileLefvre.
---
CAUGHTINABADROMANCE:WHATAMERICAMEANSTORUSSIA
EliotBorenstein
EliotBorensteinisProfessorofRussianandSlavicStudiesatNewYorkUniversity.Heis
theauthorofMenwithoutWomen:MasculinityandRevolutioninRussianFiction,1917-
1919(2000)andOverkill:SexandViolenceinContemporaryRussianPopularCulture
(2008).A2009Guggenheimrecipient,Borensteinisworkingonamonographentitled"Plots
AgainstRussia:ConspiracyandFantasyafterSocialism."Heisalsotheeditorand
developerof"AlltheRussias,"theblogsiteandwebportalfortheNYUJordanCenterfor
theAdvancedStudyofRussia.
Russiafarespoorlyintheheadlines,andnotjustbecausethenewsissooftenbad.The
Anglo-Americanworld'slimitedknowledgeaboutitscultureandhistorysaddlesRussiawith
painfullyobviousclichs,ofteninvolvingthewords"red"and"revolution."Butthebanality
prizemustgototheinevitable"FromRussia,withLove."1Ithasbeenalmost60years
sinceIanFlemingpublishedaJamesBondnovelbythatname(andmorethan50sincethe
moviewasreleased),yetthephrase,likeBondhimself,doesnotseemtobeheadedto
retirementanytimesoon.
Butitistimeforourcomplacencyaboutthenatureofthetiesbetweenthetwocountriesto
beshaken,ifnotstirred.Fleming'sstoryfeaturestwoRussianwomentryingtomake
contactwithBritain'stopsuperspyonewantstokillhim,theothertakeshimtobed.With
justafewsmalladjustments(suchasswappingoutBondforanAmerican),thetwo
extremescouldbeappliedtomanyRussians'feelingsabouttheUnitedStates,feelings
that,asisoftenthecaseincross-culturalrelationships,aremutuallymisunderstood.
PunditsintheWestanxiouslywringtheirhandsovertheriseofRussian"anti-
Americanism,"anotoriouslyvaguetermwhosemaineffectistomakeAmericansfeel
besieged.Russiahasbecomethelatestfocusforthenaivequestionwenevergettiredof
asking:"Whydotheyhateussomuch?"Inthiscase,though,thehostilitytowardsAmerica
comesfromaplaceoflove.Angry,spurnedlove.
Enemies:ALoveStory
Russia'sloveofAmericaisanoldstory,onethatisworthrecallingpreciselywhenrelations
havegonesosour.LikeHumbert'sLolita,Americahadaprecursor(shedid,indeedshe
did):anolder,andstillsimmering,affairwithWesternEuropeingeneralandFrancein
particular.Butinthetwentiethcentury,Russiawaspreoccupiedwithmodernityandwiththe
future.AninfatuationwithAmericawasinevitable.
TothosewholivedthroughWorldWarII,AmericawastheLend-Leaseprogram.Tothe
generationwhocameofageinthe1960s,Americawastheenchantedkingdomthatgave
birthtojazz(broadcastonVoiceofAmericaforyears),ErnestHemingway,KurtVonnegut,
andbluejeans.Formostpeople,thislovewaspoliticalonlytotheextentthatturningone's
attentiontothe"enemy"wasapoliticizedgesture.TheappealwasnottheUnitedStates'
economicsystemordemocraticinstitutionsUSboosterismtothecontrary,Russianswere
notseeking"freedom"orthe"AmericanDream."Theyweresimplycharmed.
WelikedtothinkofSovietcitizensasvirtuallyisolatedfromtherestoftheworld,imagining
theirnaivedelightwhenfinallyconfrontedwiththewondersofWesterncultureand
technology.Butthenaivetwasreallyours.Reportsofshortagesandlonglinesledmany
toassumethattheUSSR,ratherthanbeinganindustrialized,moderncountrywitha
capacioussocialwelfaresystem,wasmorelikeagodforsakenislandwhoseinhabitants
couldn'twaittostartacargocult.ThenovelistVasilyAksyonov,strippedofhiscitizenshipin
1980,recallshowexcitedhisnewAmericanlandlordwaswhenheheardthatthe
AksyonovswerefromtheUSSR:hetookthemtoamagicroomthatwentupanddown
fromfloortofloor,dependingonthebuttonspressed.Aksyonovwastoopolite(andtoo
amused)totellhimthattheSovietshadlongsincemasteredthesecretsoftheelevator.
IfweacceptthatUS-Russianrelationsareatleastinpartaboutlove,thenAmericaisthe
ultimatebadboyfriend.
Still,therewasonegapintheirknowledgeaboutAmericathatwouldprovedisastrous:the
SovietsdidnotknowthattheirloveforAmericawasunrequited.And,really,howcould
they?Theconflictbetweenthetwosuperpowersdefinedtheentireera,andthelimited
contactsbetweenthemnearlyalwaysinvolvedAmericanscholars,diplomats,oractivists
whowereemotionallyorintellectuallyinvestedinRussia(andwouldn'thavebothered,
otherwise).ThisisnottosaythatRussiaandtheSovietUnionplayednoroleinthe
Americanpsyche.Theideologicaldivideallowedforareductive,functionalistapproachto
Russiaanditsculture,turningtheSovietUnionintosomethingofatotalitarianDisneyland
fortheAmericanmedia/entertainmentcomplex.Sovietsmadegreatmovievillains.What
elsecouldRussiahavetooffer?
Russiahasalonghistoryofpreoccupationwithitsimageontheworldstage.America,on
theotherhand,isnotoriouslyself-absorbed,indeed,self-satisfied.Wedo,ofcourse,get
involvedinforeignwars,but,really,ourrelationshipwiththerestoftheworldisoneof
benignneglectpunctuatedbytheoccasionalrecollectionsthatwe'renotalonethen,likea
guiltybutdutifulchildpickingupaHallmarkcardonMother'sDay,weremembertosenda
drone.
AmericawasbrieflyinfatuatedwithRussiaandtheSovietUnionduringGorbachev's
perestroika,aperiodthatprovedasanomalousfortheUSasitdidforitshomecountry.
Thedamage,however,wasdone:foratleastfiveyears(lateperestroikathrough1993),
citizensofthe(former)SovietUnioncouldjustifiablyconvincethemselvesthatwewere
actuallyconcernedabouttheirwell-being.WesentthemMcDonaldsandPizzaHut,and
eventuallyhumanitarianaidintheformofchicken("Bushlegs,"asRussianscalledthem)
andleftoverDesertStormMREs.Moreominously,wesentour"experts"toreform/ruinthe
nationaleconomy,andactedasindefatigablecheerleadersforthecountry'snew
democraticinstitutions(evenwhenRussia'spresidentdisbandedandthenshelledthe
country'sparliamentin1993).
And,bytheendofthe1990s,wemoreorlessforgotaboutthem.IfweacceptthatUS-
Russianrelationsareatleastinpartaboutlove,thenAmericaistheultimatebadboyfriend.
LoveWillTearUsApart
Inretrospect,theturnagainstAmericashouldhavebeenpredictable.Whenweputour
stampofapprovalonaneoliberal,"democratic"regimethatsawincomesplummetand
crimerunrampant,webecamecomplicitinitsfailures.Eventhiscouldhavebeen
remedied,butweaddedinsulttoinjurythroughneglectandlackofrespect.Ratherthan
seeingRussiaasapartner(orevenanantagonist-atleastenemiesgetattention),we
movedintheinternationalarenaasifRussiadidn'tmatteratall.
The1999NATObombingofYugoslaviawasawell-knownturningpointforRussia,when
themediaandpopularopinionportrayedtheSerbianpeopleasvictimsofanoverreaching
predator.Russia'sthen-PrimeMinister,YevgenyPrimakov,wasflyingovertheAtlanticon
anofficialvisittotheUSwhenheheardthatNATOhadcommenceditsbombinghebriefly
achievedcultherostatusbyorderingtheplanetoturnaround.Themovewasquickly
dubbed"Primakov'sLoop,"anironicallyappropriatetermforadecisionmadebecauseof
theinformationloopfromwhichPrimakovhadbeenexcluded.
Russia'sangeroverthebombingswascast,bothinternallyandforexport,intermsofthe
longstandingbrotherlytiesbetweentwoOrthodoxSlavicnations.Butthesetieswereonly
(re)discoveredinthe1990sinotherwords,theRussianmediaandpoliticalelites
emotionallyreinvestedinSerbiapreciselywhenYugoslaviawascollapsing.Theimplicit
homologybetweenSerbiaandYugoslaviaononesideandRussiaandtheSovietUnionon
theothermeantthatSerbia'sstruggleswereseenasaproxyforRussia's.Whatthe
AmericanmediacastasahumanrightsandEuropeansecurityproblemwas,inRussia,
presentedasatestcaseforAmerica'splansforRussiaitself.
Itwasafterthebombingsthatanti-Westernconspiracytheoriesstartedtomovefromthe
margintothecenter.FirstcametherevivalofRussianmigrGrigoryKlimov'swarnings
aboutthesinister"HarvardProject,"anAmerican/Jewishplottousemindcontroland
geneticmanipulationtotransformRussiaintoanationofdebased,predatoryhomosexuals.
LongafixtureoftheRussianfarright,itspawnedS.Norka'sdystopianInquisitortrilogy
aboutRussia'snearfuture,whentheHarvardProjectischallengedbyanewOrthodox
inquisitionandastrongpresidentwhobringsordertotheland.
TheHarvardProjectwouldsoonbeeclipsedbythe"DullesPlan,"repackagedfroma
villain'smonologueina1970sSovietspythrillerandattributedtoEisenhower'sCIAchief.
Whatinthe1970swas,atbest,afuturethreattobeavoidednowlookedlikeaplanthathad
alreadycometofruition:Americanpopcultureturningpeopleintoidiots,"switch[ing]out
theirvaluesforfalseonesandmak[ing]thembelieveinthesefalsevalues."Whoknewthat
dubbed-overrerunsofSantaBarbaracouldbesodestructive?
Oneneednotbeadie-hardFreudiantoseethatlovingandhatingAmericaaretwo
versionsofthesamelibidinalinvestmenteitherway,Americaretainsanoutsized
importancethathauntsthecurrentproclamationsofRussianspiritualsuperiority.Andina
timeofincreasedstatecontrolovermediaoutlets,presentingahostileUnitedStateshits
thesweetspotbetweenpreexistingpublicsentimentandstatepropaganda.Asinmostof
thecasesinwhichRussia'swell-curatedstatemediacarefullydriveaparticularmessage
home,itisnotsimplyamatterofanauthoritariangovernmenttellingitscompliant
populationwhattobelieverather,itisasophisticatedmediaoperationthatconfirmsand
extendsbeliefsthatalreadyholdafairamountofcurrency.
Since2006,theRussianmediaandblogospherehavebeenclaimingthatformerSecretary
ofStateMadeleineAlbrightlamentedtheinjusticeofRussia'sshareoftheworld'soiland
mineralwealth(Siberiashouldthereforebeunderinternationalcontrol).Albrightherselfhas
deniedsayinganysuchthing,whilePutinhasmanagedtohaveitbothways("I'mnot
familiarwiththisquotebyMadameAlbright,butIknowthatsuchthoughtswanderthrough
themindsofcertainpoliticians").2Thisfakequoteispartofaperfectfeedbackloop,
reinforcingboththerapaciousnessofAmericans(andparticularlytheClinton
administration,responsibleforthebombingsinSerbia)andthegreatnessofRussiaitself.It
isthefamiliarpoliticsofressentiment,harnessingpublicprideandhumiliationintheservice
oftheelite'sagenda.
GivenhowmuchofcontemporaryRussianparanoidpoliticaldiscourserevolvesaround
homosexuality,perhapspsychoanalysisdoesprovidesomeusefulinsights.Klimov's
fantasyofagayJewishAmericancabaltryingtolureRussiaontothepathtodebauchery
looksalmostprescient:thecurrentanti-gayhysteriapositshomosexualityasnotsimplyan
internaldangertothebodypolitic,butasadiseasedeliberatelyexportedbyAmericaand
Europe(orasRussianhomophobesprefer,"Gayrope").Arecentepisodeofthereliably
rabiddocumentary/talkshowhybrid"SpecialCorrespondent"(whichairsonprimetimeon
Russianstatetelevision)followedashortfilmcalled"Sodom"abouttheexcessesof
toleranceintheUSandEuropewithadiscussionof"whatthisisallreallyabout."America
andEuropeareusingaccusationsofRussianhomophobiaasthepretextfortheirnext
roundof"humanitarian"bombings,whiletheStateDepartmentisrelentlesslypursuingthe
gayagendaattheexpenseofallelse.EventheSupremeCourt'smarriageequality
decision(liketheUSprosecutionofFIFAofficials)getsspunasananti-Russianact.
TherabidhomophobiainRussia'scontemporarypublicsphereisclearlyaboutmorethan
justdisdainforsame-sexlove.TohearRussiandefendersof"traditionalvalues"tellit,there
isnothingsofragileasheterosexualdesire.Theassumptionseemstobethat,assoonas
ayoungboyorgirlhearsabouthomosexuality,they'regoingtowanttobegay(because,
apparently,heterosexualsexmustbeaterribledrag).Homosexualityhascometostandin
forthewholespectrumof"Western"(andparticularlyAmerican)valuesthatcouldseduce
Russia'syouth.
Freud,inoneofhismoredatedmoments,arguedthatparanoiaisrootedinadenialof
homoeroticfeelings:"I'mattractedtohim"transformsintothemoreacceptable"Heis
persecutingme."Meanwhile,theRussianlegislaturehasrediscoveredthejoysof
repressionitisarareweekwithoutanewsstoryaboutsomenewbilltobansomething.
Mostfamous,ofcourse,isthe"gaypropaganda"law,makingvirtuallyanypositive
statementabouthomosexualitygroundsforpossibleprosecution(tosavethechildrenfrom
mythicalpredatorswhowantto"convert"them).Again,Americaisinevitablybroughtinto
thediscussion.
Butperhapstheanti-Americanhomophobesprotesttoomuch.Thelatenthomosexualityof
thehomophobeissomethingofaclich,butitsuggestssomethingaboutthegeopolitical
preoccupationsoftheguardiansofRussia'smorality.Theyare,Iwouldargue,tryingto
forgetthesinsoftheiryouth,whentheyexperimentedwithAmericanism.Thatisthenew
lovethatdarenotspeakitsname.
[returntoContents]
#22
October15,2015
ByBrianMilakovsky
[Graphics,links,andVestiexcerptshere
http://ukrainecomment.wordpress.com/2015/10/15/did-kyiv-silence-ukraines-biggest-
opposition-newspaper-part-1/]
ThespecterofacrackdownonfreespeechinUkrainewasraisedthisspringbythemurder
ofoppositionjournalistandintellectualOlesBuzinaandthearrestofUkrainianjournalist
RuslanKotsaba,whowaschargedwithunderminingthedraft.Yetashowdownbetween
thegovernment,radicalactivistsandVesti,thecountry'slargestoppositionpaper,has
largelyslippedbyunnoticedbywesterncommentators.
ItcametoaheadinJulyofthisyearwiththeresignationofitseditor-in-chiefIgorGuzhva,
whowaslikelyforcedoutbythepaper'sowner,formerYanukovichallyandoligarch-on-the-
lamAleksandrKlimenko.Strictoversightwasimposedonthepaper,politicallysensitive
materialwithdrawnandafocuson"affirmativetopics"announced.
Inaseriesofpostswewillarguethatthiswasthecommencementofa15month
campaignbyKyivtointimidateoneofitsharshestcriticsintosilence,andnot,as
opponentsofthepaperinsist,amuch-belateddefensivestrikeagainstachannelof
Russianpropagandaandseparatism.
Background
TheVestimediaholding,whichincludesUkraine'smostpopulardailynewspaper("Vesti"),
themostpopulartalkradiostation(RadioVesti),themagazineVesti.Reporterandthe
televisionchannelUBRburstontothescenein2013undertheleadershipofmediaveteran
IgorGuzhva.Withthehelpofanonymousfinancialsupporthepoachedhisstafffromother
majorpapers,including"Sevodnya,"fromwhichhehadbeenfiredayearbeforefor
refusingtopullpicturesofPresidentYanukovich'sabsurdlyluxuriousestateMezhgorye.
Guzhva'sstrategytodistributethepaperforfreeinlargecitiesseemstohavesucceeded-
bythetimeoftheMaidanrevolutionVestiwasthecountry'smostpopulardaily.But
opponentshavepointedtothefreedistributionasproofofadarkeragenda-without
oligarchicorKremlinbacking,whocouldpossiblyaffordtohandouthundredsofthousands
offreepaperseveryday?
CoveringMaidan
Vesti'scoverageoftherevolutionwasrestrained,butshowedgrowingalarmattheviolent
radicalizationoftheprotestandtheincreasingbrutalityofthegovernmentforces.The
paper'scoverageoftheunfoldingchaosearnedittheireofmanyMaidansupporters.Later
afrontpageimageofabalaclava-clad,clubwieldingprotestorwiththeheadline"Dayof
mayhem"wouldbecitedasproofofVesti'sbiasanditsroleas"mouthpieceofthe
Kremlin".
Butothersrespecteditsreporters'willingnesstoreportfromthethickoftheconflict.Oneof
thesereporters,VyacheslavVeremii,wasmurderedinthelastdaysoftherevolutionwhen
heattemptedtophotographabandofarmedthugswhowerepreparingtoattackthe
protestors.Forthisreasonthepapermaintainedtheloyaltyofsomeportionofthe
protestors,includingMaidanSelf-DefenseactivistswhowouldcometotheaidofVesti
reportersmonthslaterwhentheywerebeingintimidatedbyasurlymobledbyradical
Maidanactivist(andvictimofabrutalkidnappingandtorturebytituskhithugs)Igor
Lutsenko.
Vestigaveextensivecoveragetotheprotestorsandtheirdemandsbutalsototheir
opponents(including,strikingly,thenotoriousBerkutriotpolice).Theyfollowedwithalarm
theviolentradicalizationoftheprotestandtheincreasingbrutalityofthegovernmentforces.
Inthe2015Vestibook"RevolutionDiary,"acollectionofVesti'sarticlesaboutMaidan,the
balanceandspreadofthereportingisstriking.Thepaperpublishedthepointsofviewof
barricadeactivistsnexttoBerkutcommanders,andoppositionpartyleadersnexttothe
pro-RussianMPOlegTsarev,whowouldlaterfleetoRussiaandbecomealeaderofthe
unsuccessful"Novorossiya"movement.
Coveringthe"RussianSpring"
IntheaftermathoftherevolutionVestibeganextensivecoverageoftheCrimeaannexation
andthegrowingcrisisintheDonbasregion.Itsjournalists,includingRussianwriters,
reporteddirectlyfromtheeasterncitiesseizedbytheseparatists.Theywroteofthe
dangerouslevelsofalienationtowardsthenewUkrainiangovernment:
"Manypeopletrulyholdtheseconvictions,andit'snotworthsimplifyingeverythingbysaying
thatwhat'shappeningintheDonbasisexclusivelytheworkoftheRussiansecurity
agencies.Theirinfluenceislikelythere,butit'snotRussiancitizensprotestingonthemain
squaresandjoiningtheself-defenseforces.It'smuchmoreseriousthanthat."
(Vesti.ReporterApril18,2014)
ThreearticlespublishedinVesti.Reporterinthisperiodwouldlaterbethebasisfora
criminalinvestigationintothemediaoutletbytheUkrainianSecurityAgency(SBU)on
chargesof"underminingUkrainiansovereignty."Thesearticlescontainextensivequotesby
pro-Russianactivistsandseparatistsupporters,whichdemonstrateboththesincere,
comprehensibleangeroftheeasternersandthedubiouscausestheyhadseizedholdofto
ventit:"protectingtheRussianlanguage,"Orthodoxmilitarism,revivaloftheSovietpast.
Thetoneofthearticlesisnotsympathetictowardseitherthepro-
Russianorpro-Kyivside,butrathertheyconveyareservedagonyattheirmutual
incomprehensionandmythmaking.
Tragically,nomeanswasfoundtoofferapoliticaloutletforthiseasterndiscontent,topeel
offthosewhowantedKyivlistentotheeastfromtheactivecoreoftheseparatist
movement.AlthoughmanyUkrainianswoulddisagreewithsuchanopinion,webelievethat
agenuinelyinclusivepoliticalprocessinitiatedbeforetheviolenceeruptedcouldhave
divertedmanyfuturesupportersofthe"PeoplesRepublics"fromthisradicalpath,andat
leastweakenedthestrengthoftheseparatistcause.ItisasignaltragedyoftheUkrainian
crisisthatVesti'scallswerenotheededandnosuchattemptwasevenmade.
Coveringthewar
AndsoVesti'sreportersbegancoveringthewarintheDonbas.Inthisperiodthelong-form
articlesofVesti.Reporterparticularlystandoutoftheiragonized,clear-eyedassessmentof
events.RussianwriterMarinaAkhmedovadescribedthejournal'smissionas"journalistic
diplomacy:"Wesimplyshowallthehorrorsofthiswarfrombothsides,withonegoal-to
driveitoutofourhearts.Onlyoncethathappenswill"fragileceasefires"becomeconcrete.
InthisblogwewillpublishaseriesofourtranslationsofVesti.Reporter'sbestfrontline
reporting.ButforreadersofRussianweofferdirectlinkshere:
SeveralofthesepiecesplayedacrucialrolefortheeditorsofUkraineCommentinforming
ourunderstandingofthewarintheDonbas.Thepersonalexperiencewethenaccumulated
intheregiononlyservedtoreinforcethesenseofmutualtragedycommunicatedby
Vesti.Reporter'swriters.
ThedailyVestialsoextensivelycoveredthewar,reportingonhighciviliancasualtiesfrom
theverybeginningofthe"anti-terrorismoperation."ThiseditorialstancesoonwonVesti
manyopponents.TogetherwithheadlinewecitedaboveaboutmayhemonMaidan,astark
frontpagewiththewords"Massiveciviliandeathsintheeast"andaniconicphotoof
residentsofStanitsaLuhanskafleeingtheirburninghomewouldlaterbecitesasproofof
thepaper'sbiasand"distortionoffacts".
ThefranklycriticalreportingofVestifromMaidanandthefrontlinesoftheDonbasWar
earneditenemiesfromboththenewgovernmentinKyivandfromthestreet.Inthenext
postinthisserieswewilldescribetheshowdownbetweenthemediaholding,theUkrainian
SecurityAgencyandradicalactiviststhatwouldlastmorethanayearandahalf.
[returntoContents]
#23
October17,2015
ByBrianMilakovsky
[Graphicsherehttp://ukrainecomment.wordpress.com/2015/10/17/did-kyiv-silence-
ukraines-biggest-opposition-newspaper-part-2/]
Inourlastpostwedescribedhowitscritical,conservativeviewoftheEuromaidan
revolution,thenewgovernment'sreactiontotheso-calledRussianSpringandtheconduct
oftheDonbasWarearnedittheUkrainiannewspaperVestithedeepdistrustofthe
authoritiesandthemoniker"MouthpieceoftheKremlin"amongmanyUkrainians.Herewe
willdescribehowthepapercameunderpressurefromboththegovernmentand"activists"
(re:radicals)overthepastyearandahalf.
Accordingtoformereditor-in-chiefIgorGuzhva,inApril2014theholdingwasapproached
byfigureswithinthenewgovernmentwhoproposedthatVestihandoverpartofitsshares,
freeofcharge,asmeanstoavoidconflict.Thiswasrefused,andinMaybeganaseriesof
investigations,searchesandofficialdenunciationsofVestibyhighrankingofficials.
Firstthepaper'sofficeswereraidedandtrashedbyuniformedmenclaimingtobetax
authorities,althoughtheydidnotpresentanyidentification.Theyseizedthepaper's
servers.ThenextdayapressconferencewasheldbytheCabinetofMinisters,wherethe
allegedlyshadyfinancialschemeofthenewspaperwaspresentedtoassembledreporters.
However,Vestijournalistsweredeniedaccesstothepressconference,supposedly
becausetheydidnothave"accreditation".
ThegovernmentthenallegedthatVestilaundered93.6millionhryvnia($4.2million)through
acomplexshellgameofcompaniesinCrimeasupposedlylinkedtotheexiledKharkiv
oligarchSergeyKurchenko.Onthebasisofthesefindingstheaccountsofboththe
newspaperandGuzhvaweretemporarilyfrozen,butafterseveralweeksthecase
appearedtobeshelved.
TheninSeptemberanentirelynewaccusationwasraisedbytheUkrainianSecurity
Service(SBU),whenitallegedthatfourarticlespublishedbyVestithreatenedUkraine's
territorialintegrityandinviolability.TheSBUconductedanotherraidofthepaper'soffices
andpreventedanyemployeesfromleavingormakingphonecalls.Servers,laptopsand
personalnotebookswereseized.
Raid
OfficersoftheUkrainianSecurityService(SBU)confiscatingservers,laptopsandpersonal
notebooksofreportersduringaraidontheofficesofVestinewspaperinSeptember,2014.
ThepaperwasaccusedofthreateningUkrainiansovereignty.Source:vesti-ukr.com
ThecontentofthefourarticlesrevealsthattheSBU'sdefinitionoftreasonouscontentis
exceedinglywide.Inourfirstpostwedescribedthetoneandcontentofthreeofthearticles,
publishedinthelongf-formjournalVesti.Reporter.Theybluntlydisplaythealienationand
ragethatswelledintheDonbasafterinMarchandAprilof2014,andwhichRussiawould
soontapintowithitsseparatistproject.Butbynomeansisthereaderencouragedtoagree
withthem,or,forthatmatter,todisagreewiththem.Justtolisten.
Thefourtharticle,publishedinthedaily,detailsaccusationsbysoldiersandvolunteer
activistsaboutthesaleofmilitarysuppliesandthewithholdingofpayanddischarge
papers.Thepiecepresentsthepointofviewofthesoldiers,notesthatthearmyrefusedto
commentandputsforwardapartiallydissentingviewbyarmyveterans.
TheraidandcourtcaseearnedthecondemnationoftheOrganizationforSecurityand
CooperationinEurope(OSCE),whichcalledonKyivnottopressurecriticaljournalists.
Thisinvestigationtoowasshelvedwhenthegovernment'skeywitness,aforensiclinguist,
confirmedthelackofaninflammatorycontentinthefourarticles.
Notlongafterthis,RadioVestiwonanappealagainstadecisionbytheNational
CommissiononRadioandTelevisionnottopermittheholdingtobroadcastin26cities
whereithadpurchasedradiostations.TheCommissionhadnotofferedanyreasonforits
refusal,andmanyobserverssawitasanother"front"inthegrowingconfrontationbetween
thegovernmentandthecriticalmediaempire.
Thecourtofpublicopinion
Meanwhilepro-governmentactiviststargetedthepaper,peacefullyandotherwise.TheCivil
SectoroftheEuromaidanmovementheldfrequentanti-Vestidemonstrationsinthecapital.
Asoneprotestorganizershoutedthroughamegaphone:
"ThismouthpieceoftheKremlinismeantodestroytheconsciousnessofUkrainians,
deceivingthemabouttheeventsgoingonintheeastandincitingcivilwarinourcountry.
Webelievethatthearticlesinthisnewspaperkillnolessthanbullets."
RegularpicketswereorganizednearthepointsoutsideofmetrostopsinKyivwhereVesti
ishandedoutforfreeeverymorning.Youngpeoplewouldholdsignscallingonpasserby
nottotakeinthepaper's"Kremlinpropaganda."Frequentlytheywoulddressaszombies,
insinuatingthatVestizombifiesitsreaderswithmisinformation.
Theseprotestssoonescalated.InJuneacrowdofmaskedyouthsjeeredandthreatened
participantsinaConstitutionDaycelebrationorganizedatthepaper'soffices.Theirleader,
radicalparliamentarianIgorLutsenkowarned"Thisisourlastpeacefuldemonstration
aboutVesti.Wewon'thaveanymorepatienceiftheydon'tchangetheireditorialpolicy."
OnlytheinterventionofMaidanSelf-Defenseactivistswhohadmaintainedgoodrelations
withthepaperpreventedtheyouthsfromphysicallyassaultingtheeventparticipantsor
lightinguptheflaresthatVestireportersclaimedtheyhadbroughtinbackpacks.
Aweeklateralargermobofbalaclava-cladyouthssmashedthewindowsofVesti'soffices,
threwinflaresandbadlybeatasecurityguard.Thevideoshotbythepaper'ssecurity
camerashowstheabandonandviciousgleethatofamobconvincedofitstotallicense.
OlesVakhnii,theleaderofthenotoriousnationalistandskinheadorganizationChestnoe
Slovo("HonestWord")tookresponsibilityfortheattacks.WhenVestiapproachedhim
aboutthishesaid"Acceptedmoralnormsdon'tneedtobeappliedtoyou.It'sacceptableto
beatyouontheheadwithclubs,poisonyouwithgas."Vakhniiearlierspentfiveyearsinjail
fororganizinganattackontheofficesoftheLeagueofUkrainianVoters(allegedlyforitsUS
funding),thentwoyearsinjailforracistincitement.HeisyettobearrestedfortheVesti
attacksdespitethefactthathepostedafilmedconfessiononYoutube,althoughnowheis
underhousearrestforallegedlybeatingaKyivcityprosecutorwhohadopenedadifferent
caseagainsthim.
Inspringof2015VestiactivistsofthenotoriousRightSectororganizationblockedVesti
deliverytrucksattwoKyivmetrostationsandseized45000copiesofthepaper,whichthey
soldforscraptobuypatrioticschooltextbooks.Theyclaimed"Wearefightinganinternal
enemy,thepropagandanewspaperVesti...whichstandsforeverythingthatourbrothers
aredyingforintheEast."Latertheorganization'spresssecretarycommentedthat"The
mainthingisthatwearenotforcensorship,butforjournalisticstandardsandobjectivity."
Thevideoincludesafascinatingaltercationbetweenthe"Pravoseki"andagroupofsenior
citizenswhohadcometogettheirfreemorningpaper.TheelderlyUkrainiansbegin
haranguingtheheadactivist:
-Whodecidedthatthesepapersshouldbeconfiscated?
-Thecourts.
-Whatcourt?Whenandwhere?
-ThePeople'scourt.
-What,you're"thePeople'scourt"now?
-Yes,I'mthePeople.
-Huh!Justone!Andtherestofus,we'renotthePeople?
-Youaretoo.
-Wellwewanttoreadthatpaper!
-Goreadsomethingotherthanpro-Russianpapersthatsupportseparatism!Andwhydon't
youspeakUkrainian?
Thepensionerscontinuetoarguewithhim(manyofthemswitchingtoUkrainian)and
angrilycryingout"lawlessness!"
JustaswasthecasewiththeearliersackingoftheVestioffices,thegovernmentcouldnot
makeacaseevenwithafilmedcommissionofthecrime.
GuzhvaallegedthattheSBUrecruitsradicalstoattackgovernmentcriticsinexchangefor
stayingoutofjailthemselves.InadetailedpieceinVestioneofhisjournalistsquoteda
representativeofChestnoeSlovo,theradicalorganizationwhichtookresponsibilityforthe
Julyattackonhispaper:"TogetherwiththeSBUweworkagainstseparatismandthe
opposition,whowishtounderminenationalsecurityanddiscreditthegovernment."Inthe
organization'sofficesthereisacitationofappreciationfromSBUheadValentin
Nalivaichenkofor"significantcontributionstothemaintenanceandstrengtheningofnational
security."
Thearticle'saccusationsprovedparticularlyominouswhenthecontroversialanti-Maidan
journalistandcommentatorOlesBuzinawasmurderedafewdayslater,allegedlyby
extremenationalistsservinginoneofthevolunteerbrigadesintheeast.Inresponseto
publicshockatBuzina'sdeathawell-knownbattalionleaderwroteonFacebookthathe
wassurprisedpeoplewoulddoubtthatthejournalistwaskilledby"patriots":
Ifindthesepeopleinterestingwhojustalittlewhileagoshouted'Oy,boyscomebackfrom
thefrontandputthingsinorderhere!'[butnowareshockedbyBuzina'sdeath].Whatelse
didtheyhaveinmindby'puttingthingsinorder?'Atthefronttheydon'tteachyoutowaste
yourtimesittingincourthearingsorwritingcomplaints.
GuzhvaclaimedthatasmearcampaignhadbeenongoingagainstBuzinaforthepastyear,
ledby"apackofhysterical,intolerantmediainstigatorswhocallforreprisalsagainst
anyonewho,intheiropinion,hasanincorrectpointofview.Becauseofthemtheofficesof
Vestiweretrashedandourdistributorsattacked.AndpossiblyBuzinawaskilledbecauseof
them."
Endgame
OnJournalismDay(June5)atapressconferenceaboutfreedomofthepressPresident
Poroshenkoclaimedthatitisnothisjobtoorderthatsomemediaoutletoranotherbeshut
down.Buthethenadded"...Ifthetaxauthoritiesprovethenon-transparencyofVesti's
financing,thereshouldbenodoubtthatthecountrywilldefenditself..."
ThreedayslatertheTaxAuthoritiescalledin242currentandformeremployeesofthe
paperforquestioning,essentiallyanyonewhoreceivedtheirsalaryelectronically.Some
employeesclaimedthattheauthoritiesaggressivelybadgeredthem,threatenedthemand
theirrelativeswhileconvincingthemtocomedowntothestation.
Thiswassoonfollowedbyyetanotherraidonthepaper'sofficesbyuniformedmen
offeringnoi.d.Theyclaimedtohaveacourtordertosearchthepremisesof"VestiMass-
MediaLLC"eventhoughtthatcompanyisn'tlocatedinVesti'snewspaperoffices.Theydid
notallowjournalistsornewspaper'slawyersontothepremises,gavetheofficesanother
thoroughtrashingandonceagain,confiscatedtheservers.Around500peoplegathered
outsideoftheVerkhovnaRadaandTaxAuthoritytoprotesttheraid.
Theculminationofthe15monthstandoffwasathand.Guzhvaleftthecountryonvacation,
andfromabroadsuddenlycamethenewsthathehadhadsoldhissharesinthemedia
holdingtohispartnersandsteppeddownaseditor-in-chief.Ukrainianmediawatchers
quicklycirculatedtheversionthatVesti'smajorityowner,exiledoligarchAleksander
Klimenko,hadbargainedhiswaybackintoUkrainebyforcingtheoverlycriticalGuzhvaout
ofthepaper.Anonymoussourceswithinthepaper'sstaffclaimedthatoverseersfromthe
presidentialadministrationwouldbeinstalledtofilteroutanyimpropermaterials.Thenew
spokesmanforthepaper,Klimenko'scommonlawwife,announcedanewfocuson
"affirmativetopics."
Guzvhareturnedfromabroadandwasimmediatelysummonedtocourtonchargesoftax
evasion,whichpurportedlywerebasedonevidencefromthelatestraid.Thejudgedenied
theprosecutor'srequestforamassive17millionhryvnia($727,000)bail,imposingamore
standard1million($45,000).HealsoforbadeGuzhvatoleaveKyivwithoutexplicit
permissionfromthecourt.Guzhvaincourt
Atthepresenttimetheformereditorispreparinghisdefense.HeclaimsthattheTax
Agency,lackingthebasisforarealcaseafterayearofinvestigationandraids,manipulated
thefactsinordertocreatetheillusionofacrime.Inhiscomplicatedexplanation,thepaper
tookreturnablefinancialassistancefromafirminSumyin2013,butwasunabletoreturn
thesumintimebecausethefirm'saccountswerefrozenduringtheinitialinvestigationof
VestiinMayof2014.AccordingtoUkrainianlaw,thepapermustnowwaitfortheexpiration
ofthestatuteoflimitations(threeyears),andthenincludethissuminitsgrossincomeand
payincometaxonit."Butthetaxauthoritiesdecidedondirectforgery.Theychoseto
regardthefinancialassistancewereceivedasirrevocableanddemandthatweshould
haveincludeditinourgrossincomeandpaidincometaxesonitin2014.Andsincewe
didn'tdothat,theyhaveaformaloccasiontopresenttousthechargesoftaxevasion."
The"new"Vesti
TheholdingcuttieswithallRussianwritersandjournalists,whomadeupasignificant
contingentonRadioVestiandinReporter(includingMarinaAkhmedova,authorofsomeof
thejournal'smostpowerfulwarjournalismfromDonetsk).Theeditor-in-chiefof
Vesti.Reporter,GlebProstakov,describedthechangesthus:"wewilltrytolookatbroader
trendsandnotrunaroundafterthelatestnewsmakers....Morereportingformtheregions,
moreemphasisonurbanism.Butwewon'tshyawayfromstrongopinions,we'vekeptour
teeth."
ButitsoonbecameclearthatGuzhva'sexitpositedrealchangesinVesti'stoneand
editorialstance.AnalreadyprintedissueofVesti.Reporterwasheldbackfromdistribution,
whichsourceswithinthepaperattributetoanarticleabouttheintricaciesofPoroshenko's
innercircleandcompetitionwiththe"Georgiancourt"ofexiledreformersledbyMikhail
Saakashvili.Severalcopiesmadetheirwayintothehandsofmediacommentators,who
publishedscannedversionsonline.Thejournalitselfwassoonreprintedanddistributed
withoutthetouchyarticle.
NextinlinewassensationalreportingbyreporterSvetlanaKriukovaontheearlyelectionsin
thenortherncityofChernihiv.GennadyKorban,acorporateraiderandallyofthecountry's
mostprominentoligarch(IgorKolomoisky)ballotedagainstPresidentPoroshenko's
handpickedcandidate.Fromthefirstdaysofthecampaignitbecameclearthatthiswould
beanextraordinarilyuglyelection."Iwasmadeawarethatthispiecewouldneverget
publishedinReporterwhileIwasstillonassignment,"KryukovatoldtheeditorsofUkraine
Comment."Iwastravelingwith[candidate]KorbanandatonepointIturnedtohimandsaid
'Ihopethisstorywillbegood,becauseI'mgonnalosemyjobforit'."
InherpieceKorbanwasshowntobeacrudepopulist,earningthehumorousinternet
nickname"MarshalBuckwheat"aftersewingsupportbygivingoutfreebuckwheatkashato
thepoorandelderly.Manyvoterswereshowntobeinsuchdesperateeconomicstraits
thattheirvotewasvirtuallytheonlysaleableresourceattheirdisposal.
Moredamningly,thepresident'scandidateBerezenkoliberallyusedvariousschemesto
purchasethosevotesoutright.AtonepointinthepieceKorban'scampaignteam
surroundsalockedcarinwhichtheyhavebeentoldBerezenko'svotebuyersarelocated.
Thetwomeninsideareobservedtearingupsheetsofpaperandeatingthem.Afteramulti-
hourstandofftheyarehustledawaybythepolicebutasearchofthetrunkreveals500
envelopesstuffedwith400hryvniaeach($18)andanentirearsenaloffirearms.Laterone
oftheapartmentsisdescribedwherecityresidentscancometocollecttheir$18afterthey
showapictureofBerezenkoandpromisetovoteforhim.
Whenitbecameclearthatthepiecewouldneverseepublicationinthe"new"Vesti,
KryukovaresignedandtookherworktothecompetingpaperUkrainskaPravda.Itprovedto
beoneofthemosthotlydiscussedpiecesofpoliticaljournalisminpost-MaidanUkraine.
SeveralnewsroomveteransfollowedGuzhvaandKryukovaoutofthepaper,includingone
writerwhoclaimedthatthenewmanagementforcedthenewsstafftoremoveeventhe
smallestmentionofIgorGuzvha'scourtcasefromthepaper.Vesti.Reporter'schiefwar
correspondentInnaZolotukhynaquit,claiming"TheconceptofReporterwaschanged.Now
theydon'twriteabouttheATO[anti-terrorismoperation]there.AndIcontinuetothinkthatin
acountrywherethere'sawaron,thatshouldbetopicnumberone."AndinOctober
Zolotukhynawasfollowedoutbythejournal'seditor-in-chief,GlebProstakov.
Muzzled
TheextraordinarypressureexertedontheVestimediaholdingoverthelastfifteenmonths
shouldraiseseriousquestionsaboutwhethertheexitofitseditor-in-chiefwasmorethan
theresultofmerenewsroomandboardroompolitics.
ItappearsthatKyivjettisoneditscruderstrategytosilencethepaper-theaccusationsof
separatistsupportandassociatedraid-afteritearnedthecondemnationoftheOSCE.But
removingGuzhvawhileleavingthepaperlargelyintacttocontinuepublicationisalow-risk
neutralizationstrategy.IthasnotcaughttheattentionofKyiv'swesternbackers,whoclaim
theywillholdUkrainetohighstandardsofdemocratization.AsUSambassadortotheUN
SamanthaPowersstatedinJune,"Ukraineshouldzealouslyprotectfreedomofthepress,
includingforitsmostoutspokenandbiasedcritics-indeed,especiallyforitsmost
outspokenandbiasedcritics-evenastheso-calledseparatistsexpeljournalistsfromthe
territorytheycontrol,andevenasRussiashuttersTatarmediaoutletsinoccupiedCrimea."
GennadyKorban,well-experiencedincorporateraidingandUkrainianpolitics,described
whathadoccurredthus:"Ihaveasimple,inexpensiveandeffectivemethodforprivatizing
freedomofspeech.Youneedtodojusttwothings-getthesupportofthepresidential
administration,andthenslapanynewspaperyouwantwithfinesforfinancialviolations.
Afterthatthey'llputoutawarrantfortheeditorandyou'vegotfreedomofspeechinyour
pocket...ThisrecipewasfirstcookedupinRussiaafterVladimirPutincametopower.By
thismethodhehadhiswaywithfreedomofspeechinhishomeland."
ThequestionnowisifVesti'svariousmediaoutletsbegintoblunttheircriticismofthe
president,avoidcontentiousissueand"focusontheaffirmative,"willinternational
organizationsandthewesternpressrecognizethatUkraine'sbiggestoppositionpaperwas
muzzled?
InournextpostinthisserieswewilldiscussinmoredetailwhatVesti'sfatemeansfor
freedomofthepressintoday'sUkraine.
[returntoContents]
#24
MoscowTimes
October19,2015
PoroshenkoPressuresTVChanneltoKeepPutinHandshakeOff-Air
ByAnnaDolgov
AUkrainiantelevisionchannelhaspublishedastatementbyitsformerproducer,claiming
officialsfromPresidentPetroPoroshenko'sadministrationbannedthechannelfrom
broadcastingfootageofahandshaketheUkrainianleaderexchangedwithhisRussian
counterpartVladimirPutinatarecentmeeting.
ThehandshaketookplaceatthestartofameetinginParisonOct.2,butwhentelevision
channel112Ukrainawaspreparingareportaboutthegathering,itreceiveda"barrageof
calls"fromthepresidentialadministrationandsecurityservices"abouttheunacceptability
ofshowingthehandshakeontheair,"formerproducerViktorZubritskysaidonhis
FacebookpageSunday.
"So,PoroshenkoshookPutin'shand,butdidnotwantUkrainianstoknownaboutit,"
Zubritskysaid."Andsomehowstrangely,allofUkraine'stelevisionchannelsdidnotnotice
thatevent."
Thetelevisionchannelreprintedthepostinfullonitswebsite,withoutaddinganycomment.
Italsoincludedaphoto,creditedtoFrance'sForeignMinistry,ofPutinandPoroshenko
shakinghands.
ZubritskyalsoaccusedtheUkrainianpresidentofputtingpressureon112Ukraina,and
linkedarecentcourtwarranttosearchthechannel'sofficestothechannel'srefusalto
shelvethefootageofthehandshake.
"Poroshenko,withthehelpofhiscohorts...hasbeenusingtheusualarsenalofatyrant-
threatsofopeningorclosingcriminalcases,threatsofrevokingthedigital[broadcasting]
license,"Zubritskysaid.
Thechannelisunderinvestigationonsuspicionofmoneylaundering,Zubritskysaid,
describingthecaseaspunishmentfor112Ukraina'scriticalcoverageofthepresident.
"Thisfinalrefusalto'notshowhishandshake'hasledtoaUkrainiancourtapprovingon
Friday,Oct.16,awarranttosearchwithinamonththeofficesof112Ukrainatelevisionand
toseizeallcomputers,digitaldata-storagedevicesandsoon,"Zubritskysaid."Inother
words-tocarryouttechnicalmovestowardterminatingthetelevisionchannel'swork."
The112Ukrainachannelhasreceivedseveralgovernmentwarningsthisyearfor
supposedlyviolatingthetermsofitsbroadcastinglicense,Russia'sRBCbusinessnews
agencyreported.
PutinandPoroshenko,alongwithFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeandGerman
ChancellorAngelaMerkel,metinParisonOct.2inanattempttobringpeacetoeastern
Ukraine,whereMoscow-backedseparatistsarefightingKievgovernmentforces.
[returntoContents]
#25
Gazeta.ru
October13,2015
AntonLinnik,PoroshenkoControlsOnlyKiev.WhoWillWininUkraine'sCitiesWithMore
ThanMillionInhabitants
TheelectionsinUkraine,whicharejustovertwoweeksaway,willproducelotsof
surprises.[UkrainianPresidentPetro]Poroshenko'steamwilltakecontrolonlyofKiev,
wherevictoryisbeingpredictedfor[Vitaliy]Klitschko,thepresentmayor.Inotherregionsan
activestruggleisbeingwagedamongregionalleaders,withwhomPoroshenkowillnotfind
itthateasytoreachagreement.Propresidentialforcesmaymakeuseoftheadministrative
resource,andexpertsarenamingKharkivandDnipropetrovskashotspots.
AnactivestruggleforvotershasbeguninUkraine:billboardsthroughoutthecountrybear
thefacesofpotentialcandidatesforlocalorgansofpower,stallsandplaygroundswith
dedicatoryinscriptionsarebeingsetupinhouseyards,andcampaignersareactively
handingoutleaflets.Allthisatteststhataseriousstruggleisbrewingamongthepolitical
forces,andPresidentPetroPoroshenkowillfindithardtotakecontrolofthecountry'skey
cities-Kiev,Lviv,Dnipropetrovsk,Kharkiv,andOdessa.
Thetoughestrivalryistraditionallyovertherighttoleadthecapital.About30people,
includingmanyfamousnames,arenowaspiringtothepostofKievmayor.Thefollowing
haveadvancedtheircandidacies-ex-PrimeMinisterYuriyYekhanurov,professionalsoldier
VolodymyrRuban,legalexpertTatyanaMontyan,ex-politicalprisonerDmytro
Pavlyuchenko,ex-battalioncommanderBoryslavBereza,restaurateurSerhiyHusovskyy,
andothers.ButtherealstrugglewillgetunderwayamongVitaliyKlitschko,ex-KievMayor
OleksandrOmelchenko,andHennadiyKorban,ex-deputygovernorofDnipropetrovsk
Region.
"Accordingtoourforecasts,VitaliyKlitschkoandOleksandrOmelchenko,whoarouses
nostalgiainmanyKievresidents,willgetthroughtothesecondround.Butvictorywillstill
gotothepresentmayor,whoenjoysthesupportofoneinfiveresidentsofthecapital,"a
sourceintheKievadministrationsaid.Thepropresidentialpoliticalforceisalsocountingon
amajorityontheKievCouncil.
Accordingtoourinterlocutor'sinformation,HennadiyKorbanisnotevenreckoningon
becomingmayorbutisjustpreparingfortheparliamentaryelectionsjointlywithUkrop,a
newpoliticalforce.AllimportantvotesthatareputtotheSupremeCouncilattesttothe
coalition'simminentcollapse.Forexample,thedraftlawmakingchangestothe
constitutionwasadoptedonlywiththehelpoftheOppositionBloc,whereasSelf-Help,the
partyofLvivMayorAndriySadovyy(amemberofthecoalition),refusedtosupportthe
importantdocument.Itisthetensesituationinparliamentthatenablessomepolitical
analyststoassumethatnewelectionsofpeople'sdeputiesmaybescheduledasearlyas
nextspring.
Difficulttoreachagreement
ThebiggestchanceofwinninginLvivbelongstoAndriySadovyy,thelocalmayor.About10
candidateswishtocompetewithhim.Buttheyhavenochance.Accordingtoresearch
carriedoutthissummerbytheRazumkovCentre,42.5percentofLvivresidentsare
preparedtosupportSadovyyforthepostofmayor.Self-Helpwillalsogetamajorityof
votesonthelocalcouncil.TherightPRstrategyhelpedthemayortoachievesuchagood
result:Lviv'smayorisurgingallthemajorITcompanies,whoseofficesarenowbeing
searchedenmassebyrepresentativesofthelawenforcementorgans,tomovetothe
capitalofGalicia.Suchactivenessisyieldingfruit:TheflowoftouriststoLvivwillincrease
10-15percentthisyear,andthecityhasalreadystartedtoovertakeKievintermsofgrowth
ofbusinessactivity.Asourceinthepresident'sadministrationsaidthatPoroshenkois
unabletofindmutualunderstandingwithSadovyy,whodoesnotconcealhispresidential
ambitions."AndriySadovyyisarealaspiranttothepostofheadofstate,"Gazeta.ru's
interlocutorexplained.
ThesituationinOdessa,wheremorethan40peoplewillfightforthepostofmayor,ismore
unpredictable.Forexample,thefollowingintendtoadvancetheircandidacy-Eduard
Hurvits,ex-governorofOdessaRegionHennadiyTrukhanov,thepresentmayorandalso
SashaBorovyk,arepresentativeofthePetroPoroshenkobloc.Thestruggleissotough
thaton10October,followinganexplosionnearhishome,People'sDeputySerhiyKivalov
droppedoutoftheelectionrace.
Intheopinionofrepresentativesofthecitycouncil,Trukhanov,thepresentmayor,hasthe
bestchancenow,buttheOppositionBlocwilltakethemajorityonthecitycouncil.
GovernorMikheilSaakashviliwillfindithardtofindacommonlanguagewiththewinnersof
thelocalelections,andthiscouldhaveasubstantialimpactonhisprogrammefor
reformingtheregion.Forexample,Saakashvilihasalreadypromisedhissupporttoallwho
wishtoinvestinOdessa.Buthowisthistoberealizednowinpractice,forheis
responsibleforthedevelopmentoftheregion,notthecity?
HotSpots
ExpertsnametheelectionsinKharkivandDnipropetrovskasthemostproblematicones.
ThisisconnectedwiththefactthatHennadiyKernes,thepresentmayor,againstwhom
criminalproceedingshavebeeninstitutedforseparatiststatements,enjoysthegreatest
supportamongthepeopleofKharkiv.Buttheofficialhimselfassociatestheprosecution
withhisstance."Iaminoppositiontotheregime,Imeanthecurrentregime,becauseIdo
notunderstandwhatishappeningnow-people'simpoverishment,whattariffs,andso
forth,"Kernesdeclared.
VolodymyrFesenko,presidentofthePentaCentreforAppliedPoliticalStudies,doesnot
ruleoutthepossibilitythattheelectionsmaybewrecked.TheexpertpresumesthatKernes
maybethewinner,butacourtverdictonhimwillemergeaftertheelections-whichwill
makeitpossibletoneutralizehim.
ThemostcomplexsituationisbeingobservedinDnipropetrovsk,whereOleksandrVilkul,a
representativeoftheOppositionBloc,hasagoodchanceofwinning.AndriyZolotaryov,
leaderoftheThirdSectorcentre,confirmedthattheregioncentrewillessentiallybecome
oneofthehotspots."Itisnotaquestionthereofastruggleofparties,itisaquestionthere
ofastruggleofclans.ThecampaigninDnipropetrovskhasbeenfullofconflictfromthe
outset,andthereisagreatriskthatthecitymayendupadestabilizationpointbythetime
ofvoting,"hebelieves.Theregioncentreisofhugesignificancetothecountry'seconomy,
andvictoryforarepresentativeoftheOppositionBloccouldleadtotheemergenceinthe
cityofanotherself-proclaimedrepublic.Obviously,thisfactscaresPresidentPetro
Poroshenkomostofall.
Fortheparliamentarypartiestheresultsoftheirparticipationinthe25Octoberlocal
electionscouldbeunexpected,VitaliyBala,leaderoftheSituationsModellingAgency,
believes.
"Thiswillbeashock,"hesaid.Accordingtohim,the"heavyweightparties"werecounting
on"preserving"themselvesinpowerbasedontheupcomingelectionresults.But
sociologicalresearchshowsthatinlocalelectionspeoplearemoreinclinedtosupport
partiesthataregearedtolocalleadersandtopeoplewithauthorityintheregion.Local
politicalprojectsaresqueezingoutthemajorpartiesintheeastofthecountry,Vadym
Karasyov,directoroftheInstituteofGlobalStrategies,believes.
"Inanumberofregionsintheeastandsouthofthecountryeitherrepresentativesofthe
OppositionBlocorrepresentativesofnewpoliticalforcesconnectedwithlocalelites-Our
Land,Revival-willwintheelections,"VolodymyrFesenkoadded.Thisisconnectedwith
thefactthatthebigpoliticalpartieshavedevotedverylittletimetotheregions.
[returntoContents]
#26
Stratfor.com
October14,2015
Stratfor:aGrandBargainremainselusiveinUkraine
Summary:StratforprovidesastatusreportontheUkrainecivilwar,afesteringboilinthe
heartofEuropeandsparkthathawksonbothsidesareusingtorestartthecoldwar.These
conflictsusuallyendindiplomacythatpointseemsfaraway.
Forecast
Becauseofpoliticalconsiderations,KievwillnotfullysubmittoseparatistandRussian
demandsforamnestyand"specialstatus"powersineasternUkraine.
EuropewillencouragetheUkrainiangovernmenttobeaccommodating,buttheUnited
Stateswillpushforahard-lineapproach.
Russiawillkeepitsoptionsopenandwillnotabandonthepossibilityoframpingupmilitant
activityifKievandtheWestareuncooperative.
Analysis
Afterayearofslow-burningconflictineasternUkraine,therelationshipbetweenKievand
Moscowseemstofinallybeimproving.Fightingonthegroundhasdissipated,therehave
beenpositivedevelopmentsintalksoverthepastfewweeksandbothsidesbegantopull
heavyweaponrybackfromthelineofcontactinearlyOctober.Moreover,Russiaand
Ukrainehaveagreedonatemporarynaturalgasdealandwillbegindirectnegotiationson
Kiev'stermsofrepaymentforabondthatmaturesinDecember.Andinamajor
concessiontoKievanditsWesternbackers,theseparatistterritoriesofDonetskand
LuhanskannouncedOct.6thattheywouldpostponelocalelections.
ThesedevelopmentssignalprogresstowardendingthestandoffbetweenRussiaandthe
WestoverUkraine.However,abroadersettlementwillstillbedifficulttoachieveandis
unlikelytobereachedbeforetheendoftheyear.
GlimmersofCompromise
TensionbetweenRussiaandtheWestoverUkrainemountedduringthefirsteightmonths
oftheyear.Bothgovernmenttroopsandseparatistsregularlyviolatedthecease-firesigned
inFebruaryaspartoftheMinskagreement.Andcasualtiessteadilyincreased,reaching
nearly8,000sincethestartofthefightinginApril2014.Inthemeantime,RussiaandNATO
builtupsecurityandincreasedthetempoofmilitaryexercisesalongtheRussia-Ukraine
border.TheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnionalsointensifiedsanctionsagainstRussia,
whileMoscowrespondedwithitsowneconomicrestrictionsontheWest.
TheUkraine-Russiaconflict
However,thingsbegantochangeinSeptember.Themonthbeganwithwhatwas
supposedtobeaone-weekcease-firetocoincidewiththebeginningoftheschoolyear.
Instead,thecessationoffightinghasheldforoverfiveweekswithrelativelyfewviolations
andnodeaths.Thiscalmonthebattlefieldhaslentmomentumtotheeffortstoimplement
theMinskprotocolsatatacticallevel,seenmosttangiblywiththepulloutofheavy
weaponryfromthelineofcontactbyUkrainianforcesbeginningOct.4.
Thiswithdrawal,inturn,promptedtherebelstostartremovingtheirheavyweaponry,and
onOct.6representativesfromDonetskandLuhanskannouncedthattheywouldpostpone
theirlocalelectionsuntil2016,amovemadewiththetacitapprovalofMoscow.
NegotiationsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveprogressedonotherissuesaswell.On
Sept.26,thetworeachedanaturalgasagreement,whichasofOct.12endedacutoffin
placesinceJune.Thedealistemporary,meanttolastthroughwinter-similartolastyear's
agreement.Nonetheless,thefinalaccordwastheresultofacompromiseonthepriceby
bothsides.
Therehasalsobeenmovementonanothercontentiousissue:thematurationofa$3billion
bondUkrainewassettopayofftoRussiabyDecember.RussianFinanceMinisterAnton
SiluanovannouncedOct.5thatheplanstomeetwithhisUkrainiancounterpartthisweek
todiscussthebondrepayment.Thiswillbethefirsttimesuchformaltalkshavebeenheld.
Uptothispoint,Kievhasinsistedthatitwillnotmaketherepaymentunlessitis
restructuredinawaysimilartoanAugustdebtreliefdealwithWesternbondholders.
Russiahassofarrefusedtherequest,butdirecttalksontheissuemayopenthewayfor
yetanothercompromisebetweenKievandMoscow,thoughtalkscouldalsostrengthen
Moscow'shandagainstKievinareassuchasUkraine'snegotiationswiththeInternational
MonetaryFund.
ObstaclestoResolution
Therecentcompromisesandengagementhavegivenrisetospeculationthatagrand
bargainmaybetakingshapeamongRussia,UkraineandtheWest.Moscowisnewly
cooperativebecauseofitsdramaticeconomiccontractionandbecauseofthepoliticaland
militarylimitsofextendingitspushintoeasternUkraine.SeveralEUcountriesarealso
interestedinde-escalatingtheconflict,especiallythosewhoseeconomieshavebeenhurt
byEuropeansanctionsandbyRussiancountersanctions.
Despitethegainsmadeinthepastmonth,abroadersettlementlikelywillnotbereached
beforetheendoftheyearforseveralreasons.Firstandforemost,thepathoutlinedbythe
Minskprotocolsisopentointerpretation.Thereisnocleardefinitionofwhatthe"special
status"giventotheseparatistterritoriesactuallyis.Therebelssaythestatusgivesthem
long-termautonomyoverissuessuchasdefenseandforeignpolicy,whileKievinsiststhe
statusisonlytemporaryandappliesonlytoareassuchasbudgetarypolicyandcultural
affairs.
Upholdingthecease-firewillpavethewayforfurthernegotiation,butcomingtofinalterms
willbefarmoredifficult.Second,theissueofamnestyforseparatistfightershasnotbeen
settled.MilitantsarecallingforablanketamnestywhiletheUkrainiangovernmentinsists
amnestyshouldonlybegrantedonanindividualandselectivebasis.
Third,eveniftheUkrainiangovernmentandtheseparatistsareabletoagreeonaway
forward,Kiev'sdomesticsituationwillcauseproblems.WhileRussiaandtheseparatists
increasethepressuretograntgreaterpoliticalconcessionsineasternUkraine,
ultranationalistgroups,particularlyRightSectorandSvoboda,havepushedintheopposite
direction.Thesegroupsopposeanycompromisewithseparatistsand,asaviolent
SeptemberrallyinKievagainstconstitutionalamendmentsshowed,theyareableto
destabilizethepoliticalsystem.ThisleavesKievinadifficultposition-favorablemoves
towardeithersidecouldleadtoblowbackbytheother.
Finally,theUnitedStatescouldposeanotherobstacletoresolution.CertainEuropean
countries,includingGermanyandFrance,areinterestedinde-escalatingtheconflict,but
theUnitedStateshasmaintainedanaggressiveposturetowardRussia.Washingtonhas
increasedfinancialassistance,heldmorefrequentmilitarytrainingsandmulledanincrease
indefensiveweaponsuppliestoUkraine.TheUnitedStateshaslesstolosebymaintaining
sanctionsagainstRussiaandhaslessofaninterestineasingthemthandoesthe
EuropeanUnion.
AgrandbargainwouldneedtoincludetheUnitedStates,butWashingtonisuninterestedin
adealthatdoesnotincludeacompletepulloutofRussiantroopsfromeasternUkraine.
RussiahasattemptedtouseissuessuchasitsgrowingroleintheSyrianconflicttobring
theUnitedStatestothenegotiatingtable,butsofarithasbeenunsuccessful.
TheseobstaclesdonotprecludeprogressinnegotiationsbetweenRussia,Ukraineandthe
West,andallofthemaresubjecttochange.Butthoughtalksmaywellleadtomoreroom
forcompromiseovercertainmilitary,politicalandeconomicissues,acomprehensive
settlementwillbeelusiveforthenearfuture.
[returntoContents]
#27
KyivPost
October18,2015
ReturntoVolnovakha:Ninemonthsafter13civilianskilledinRussian-separatistattack,
loyaltiesstilldivided
ByStefanHuijboom
VOLNOVAKHA,Ukraine-HerstylishblondehairandhighheelsturntheheadsofUkrainian
soldiersasshedescendsthebus,onesoldiercheckingherpassportatthecheckpointthat
leadstothesmallUkrainian-controlledcityofVolnovakha,some40kilometerssouthof
Russian-separatistterritory.
Thewoman,24-year-oldAnastasiaReva,isonherwaytoherparents,whostilllivein
VolnovakhaandwhoneverhaveleftthecityduringRussia'swaragainstUkraine.Reva
doesrespecttheactionsoftheUkrainianarmyinhernativecityof23,000people.
"ForsomeresidentshereitfeelslikeabunchofwestUkrainiansareoccupying
them,"shesaid.
VolnovakhamadeheadlinesonJan.13,whenRussianproxiesfiredmissilestowardsa
highwaycheckpoint,hittingacivilianbusandkilling12innocentpassengers.
Russian-separatistauthoritiesinitiallyadmittedtheattackthat"successfullyhitaUkrainian
blockpost,"butaftertheyfoundoutthatmissileshitacivilianbus,theywithdrewtheir
statementanddeniedanyinvolvement,sayingtheUkrainianarmywasbehindit.This"act
ofterror,"asboththeUkrainiangovernmentandtheRussian-separatistsdescribedit,
remainfreshinthememoriesoftheresidentsofVolnovakha.
"MymothergoesonceeverytwoweekstoDonetsktovisitmyyoungerbrotherwholives
there.WhenIheardthenewsofthebusattack,mybodyfeltparalyzed,fearingformy
parents.Itsimplymeantthatwhereveryouare,youareneversafe,"Revaexplained."Since
theattackmyparentsstartedtodisliketheUkrainianarmyevenmore.Manyinthistown
feelalienatedwithsomesoldiersfromwestUkraine,whomtheyjustcan'tsympathizewith.
Idon'thavestatistics,butmybetisthatthemajorityinthistownwouldpreferseparatiststo
'liberate'it."
TensionsremainasUkrainianarmysoldierspatrolthestreets.
Onesoldier,onlygivinghisfirstnameAnton,saysthatVolnovakhaisastrongholdforspies
andsaboteursthataidtheRussian-separatistsinDonetsk.
"We'reinthebiggesttownfromthesouthbeforeenteringtheenemy-heldterritories.The
enemyalsooperateshere,intheshadows,"Antonexplained
Heurgesoutsidersnottowalkoutsideinthenightbecauseofgangslinkedtothe
separatists.
"Youwon'tbethefirstthatwillbekidnappedfromwhowe'llneverhearbacksomething
again."
AntontalksaboutlastJunewhentheheadoftheVolnovakhatrafficpolice,knownbyhis
guerillaname"Zombie,"wasarrestedbecauseheactivelyaidedRussian-separatistforces,
givingoutinformationofUkrainianpositions,organizingdeliveryofweaponsand
coordinatingescaperoutesofsabotagegroups.
Donbashasalwaysbeenknownbyitsvarietyofcriminalgangs.Itseemsthatsomeof
thesegangshavechosensidefortheRussiancombinedseparatists.
OnMarch21,SecurityServiceofUkraineofficerVictorManzykwasmurderedin
Volnovakha.InDnepropetrovskadvancedweaponssuchasgrenadelaunchersandrocket
launcherswerefoundinanapartmentofoneofthesuspects.
Aftertheincident,InteriorMinisterArsenAvakovdisclosedthatatotalof11suspectswere
arrestedlinkedtodifferentparticipatingcriminalgangsintheDonetskarea.Fourofthem
weredirectlyinvolvedintheincident,makingthemthemainsuspects,accordingtoAvakov.
MayorSergeyDemchenko,anallyofex-PresidentViktorYanukovych,didn'twanttotalkto
theKyivPost.
ThedeputymayorofVolnovakha,IgorSeydamovich,waswillingtotalkthough.
"Allsuspectsarestillincustody,"hesaid.
Hedidn'twanttospeak,though,ofanydetailsabouttheprogressofacriminalcaseand
howmanywereinpre-trialdetention."That'samatterfortheprosecutor'sofficeandthe
SBU.Idon'tknowanythingaboutthat."
Seydamovichacknowledgedthatsupportfortheseparatistsisa"problem"inVolnovakha.
AntonclaimsthattheshootoutwaswelcomedbyagroupofVolnovakhaciviliansaswell.
"It'snosecretthatmanyherehavepro-Russianviews,andwishVolnovakhawouldbepart
oftheseparatist-territory.Civiliansthatheardaboutthemurdersawitasasignthatour,the
Ukrainian,controlwasshrinking,"heexplained.
Outsideasmallkiosk,amiddle-agedwomanputssomeofhergroceriesinherlarge
plasticbag.
FoodisscarceinVolnovakha,andthekiosksonthedesertedstreetsprofitfromthelargely
emptysupermarkets.
ValeriaBeletsky,54,complainstothecashierofthekiosk."Twomonthsagoyouwere
sellingmewaterfortwohryvnialess!"sheshoutedattheyoungwomanatthecounterafter
thoroughlyreadingherreceipt.
"DamntheUkrainians,"shemumbled.
BeletskywasbornandraisedinVolnovakha.
She'sseenRussia'swaragainstUkrainefromthestart,anddoesn'tsupporttheKyiv
government.
"They'rethieves!I'veseenbombs,grenades,deadpeople,andwhy?Becausethat
governmentinKyivdidn'trespecttheDonbaspeople'sdesiretonotbecomeEuropean,or
whatever!"shekeptshouting,becomingemotional."They'retalkingUkrainiantome.Idon't
understandthat.It'sasifabunchofstrangersoccupyushereinVolnovakha.Makethem
leave!"
AskingifBeletskywantstomoveandliveinDonetsk,oddly,sheanswersthequestionwith
afirm"no"withoutanyfurtherexplanation.
FortunatelyfortheUkrainiansoldiersinVolnovakha,there'speoplewhoactivelysupport
them.Oneofthemis21-year-oldVitaliyVolyanik,whowalksupfronttoagroupofsoldiers
thatstandsmokingacigaretteinfrontoftheVolnovakhatrainstation."GlorytoUkraine!"
Volyaniksaid,asthesoldiersrespond:"Heroesdon'tdie!"
Volyanik,anativefromDonetsk,explainshissupportforUkrainiansoldiers."They'rehereto
protectus.AnyonethatthinksthatUkraineisoccupyingVolnovakhashouldmovetothereal
occupiersthemselves.I'mfromDonetskandI'vefledmyhometown,becauseitwas
occupied.AndIthankthesebravesoldierswhoareheretoprotectme."
[returntoContents]
#28
WorldAffairs
www.worldaffairsjournal.org
October16,2015
ACautionaryNote:ReintegratingtheDonbas
ByAlexanderMotyl
ALEXANDERJ.MOTYLisprofessorofpoliticalscienceatRutgersUniversity-Newark
ThefightingintheDonbasmaybewindingdown,butUkraine'swarwithRussiawill
continueaslongasVladimirPutinbelievesthatUkrainemustbecomehissubject.
NowmorethaneverUkraine'ssurvivalasademocraticWesternstatedependsonthe
continuedstrengtheningofUkraine'smilitarycapabilityandtheaccelerationofreform.
AnostensiblypeacefulRussiaweddedtoimperialexpansionisnolessofamilitarythreat
toUkrainethananopenlyhostileRussiaweddedtoimperialexpansion.TheWestistoo
preoccupiedwithitsownproblemsandtooindifferenttoPutin'sdestructionofthepost-war
internationalordertosaveUkraine.
OnlyUkrainecanprotectitselffromfurtherRussianpredationsbyacquiringafirst-class
militaryabletodeterallbutthecraziestofRussianleaders.Meanwhile,afirst-classmilitary
isimpossiblewithoutastrongeconomy,whichinturnisimpossiblewithoutserious,
sustainedreform.
Asdifficultasintroducingreformhasbeen,it'sabouttogetmuchharder-fortworeasons.
First,theseemingendtofightingwillinclinesomeUkrainianpolicymakerstoconcludethat
theRussianthreathaswanedandthattheycanrelax.
Second,itnowlookslikeUkrainemayactuallyhavetoreintegratetheDonbasenclave
sometimeinthenearfuture.I'vebeenarguingadnauseamthatUkrainewouldbeinfinitely
betteroffbykeepingtheenclaveontheothersideofahighwall.Alas,myargumentmaybe
abouttobecomemoot,as-orif-Minsk-2isimplemented.
SignedinFebruary2015,theMinsk-2accordsproposeaseriesofsteps-acease-fire,an
exchangeofprisoners,aconstitutionalamendmentregardingtheDonbasenclave'sstatus,
Russianwithdrawal,localelections,andUkrainiancontroloftheenclave'sborderwith
Russia-thataresupposedtoendthewarandusherinpeace.Theproblemwiththedealis
thatUkraineexpectsMinsk-2toleadtoitsreassertionofsovereignty,thatRussiaexpectsit
toproduceUkrainiansubservience,andthattheseparatistsexpectittoreinforcetheirrule.
It'sthereforeperfectlypossiblethatMinsk-2willbreakdown,asallsidesrealizethereisno
waytofinessetheirincompatibledemands.Theresultcouldbeafrozenconflict,withthe
addedadvantagethatRussiamightbereluctanttorenewhostilitiesandincursanctions.
Werethattohappen,KyivshouldformallydeclarethattheDonbasenclaveisoccupied
territorythatfallsunderthepurviewoftheoccupyingpower,Russia.
IfPutin'sproxiesarelessstrategicallydaftthanheis,theymightpushforreintegrationand
therebyputUkraineinthehotseat.Asabsolutelyeveryoneknows,theenclave-andindeed
thewholeDonbas,eventhepartoccupiedbyUkrainianforces-hasbeenandstillisruledby
criminalclans,criminaloligarchs,criminalmafias,and-thelatesttwist-criminalseparatists
andcriminalwarlords.Mostofthepopulationisunremittinglyhostiletoeverythingthenew
Ukrainestandsfor.Theeconomyisinruins.
IfanyoneknowshowUkraineissupposedtoreintegratethiscancerousregionwithout
infectingitselfintheprocess,pleasetellme.
ThechallengewouldbeenormousevenifUkrainedefeatedtheRussianseparatistsand
occupiedtheterritory.AndUkrainehasnotdefeatedtherebels.Norwilliteveroccupythe
enclaveandimposeitswillwithoutreignitingthewar.
Instead,Ukrainewillhavetoreintegrateanunreconstructedandunreconstructableregion.
That'swhatMinsk-2mandates.Andthat'sbeenthedeclaredgoaloftheUkrainianpolitical
establishment.
Astheysay,becarefulwhatyouwishfor.Itmaycometrue.
There'sonlyonewayforapotentiallyreintegratedDonbasenclavetowreakminimal
damageonUkraine.
Kyivshouldquarantinetheterritoryanditsthugsbygivingit,andthem,almostcomplete
sovereigntywithinaconfederalrelationshipwithUkraine.
NeitherKyivnortheenclavewouldinterfereineachother'sinternalorexternalpolitical
affairs.Bothsideswouldpursuetheirowneconomicpolicies,refrainfromsubsidizingeach
other,keepallthetaxestheycollect,andpursuetradewithwhomevertheydesire.Each
sidewouldberesponsibleforlawandorder,speakwhicheverlanguageitdesires,
rememberwhatitwantstoremember,andhonorwhomeveritwantstohonor.Other
issueswouldbestickier(Wouldtherebeonearmyortwo?Wouldtheenclavepursueits
ownforeignpolicy?Wouldtherebeonepresidentortwo?),butnotimmunetocreative
solutions.
Russiaanditsseparatistthugs-alongwithFrance,Germany,andtheUnitedStates-would
behard-pressedtosaynyettosuchadeal,whileKyivandUkraine'shotheadscouldclaim
victoryanddeclarethatUkraineiswholeagain.
Doconfederationsworkinthemediumtolongterm?Rarely,unless,asinthecaseofthe
Swiss,therearespecialcircumstancesthatovercomethecentrifugalforcesbuiltinto
them.
IftheUkrainianconfederationworks,great.Ukraineproperwillreform,whiletheenclave
goestothehellofitschoice.Iftheconfederationdoesn'tworkandbothsidesagreetogo
theirownway-perhapsliketheCzechsandtheSlovaks-what'snottolike?
[returntoContents]
#29
MoscowTimes
October19,2015
What'sNextforRussiaandUkraine?
ByJean-MarieGuehenno
Jean-MarieGuehennoispresidentandCEOoftheInternationalCrisisGroup.
Themostacutephaseofthe18-month-oldUkrainewarisover,atleastfornow.Butnothing
issettledyet.
AfterspendingaweekinKievandMoscowwithadelegationfromtheInternationalCrisis
Group,itisclearthatRussiaisslidingdeeperintoeconomiccrisisandpoliticaluncertainty.
Ukraine,meanwhile,hasresolvednoneoftheissuesthatledtoitscrisisboilingoverinto
armedconflict.
Russia'sinterventionineasternUkrainehasbeenadisappointmenttoMoscow.The
Ukrainianarmyhasfoughtbetterthanexpected,andtheWesthasbeenmoreunitedin
imposingsanctionsthananticipated.
PresidentVladimirPutinnowseemstobedownplayinganyseparatistprojectforeastern
Ukraine.HestressessupportfortheFebruary2015Minsktalks,isreininginhiseastern
protegesandhasabandonedtheNovorossiaprojectthatwouldhavecreatedaterritorial
continuumallthewaytotheself-proclaimedrepublicofTransdnestr.ThepeopleofDonetsk
andLuhanskmaydisliketheauthoritiesinKiev,butthemajoritydoesnotembraceRussia,
andsustainingeasternUkraineisascostlyapropositionforRussiaasitwouldbefor
anyoneelse.
Noneofthefundamentalissuesthatledtoawarthathaskilledwellover8,000peoplehave
beenresolved.Twelvemonthsofhalf-heartedeffortstoreformUkrainehavenotreversed
25yearsofcorruption.ThereisanadmirablegenerationofyoungUkrainiansenergetically
committedtoEuropeanvalues,shamingcontemporariesinWesternEuropewhotaketheir
democraticinheritanceforgranted,butthejudiciaryremainssubservienttopowerand
money,thereisonlyakernelofreformedpoliceandoligarchsstillruletheroost.Kiev's
disregardforitscitizensintherebel-occupiedzonesintheeastwillfurthercomplicateany
futurereintegration.
Aboveall,Ukraine'sdysfunctionalstatemakesitaneasytargetformeddlingand
manipulation.KievfearsthatRussiawillnotabandonitspressure,butwillsimplyshiftfrom
themilitarytothepolitical-fundingandpromotingtraditionallypro-Russianpoliticianskeen
tocapitalizeonpublicdismayatrisingpricesanddisillusionwiththeirleaders.
InRussia,thecrisisisnolesssevere.ItstartedbeforethewarinUkraine,andbeforethe
collapseofoilpricesandtheruble.Thenon-diversificationoftheeconomyanddeep
demographicdecline-Russiahasthelowestlifeexpectancyofalldevelopedcountries-
havetakenaserioustoll.Russianeedsalongperiodoffargreatereconomicgrowthto
catchupwithWesternEurope.Rightnowgrowthisnegative,withdevastatingimpacton
thebudget:pensionswillnotmatchinflation,andtensofmillionsofRussiansfacea
significantreductionoftheirincome.
Thebasiccontractofthelastfewyears-anauthoritarianregimeinreturnforamodest
improvementinbasiclivingconditions-isbeingreplacedbyanewoneinwhichnational
pridesubstitutesformaterialsatisfactions.
Statepropaganda,whichdominatesthemedia,isbacktoStalinisttropes:aRussia
surroundedbyenemies,theWestfomentingrevolutionsofallcolors,andIslamistsaspart
ofawideWesternconspiracyagainstRussia,whichhasthebiggestMuslimpopulationin
Europe.
Moscow'spolicyofbombingIslamistsinSyriaandsupportingSyrianPresidentBashar
Assadthusaddresseswhatitseesasarealthreattoitsdomesticinterests,andatthe
sametimesendsamessageofresolvetoWesternpowers.Inshort,Russiahasgone
beyonddissatisfactionwiththestatusquotobecomearevisionistcountry.
Atthispointwheretrustbetweenthetwosidesisclosetozero,sharedpointsofreference
andcommonprojectsarevitaltoensurechangesoccurlegitimately,withoutanyrenewed
useofforce.AndthereismuchtheWestcanbegintodotostabilizetheconflict.
First,makefinancialsupporttoUkraine,onrigorousconditions,amuchgreaterpriority.The
painfulreformsthatUkraineneedstoconductwillbelesspainfulifthereismorefinancial
supportfromtheEU.
Second,prioritizejustice,ruleoflaw,andanti-corruptionintechnicalsupporttoUkraine.
Third,maintainaunitedfrontonsanctionssolongastheMinskagreementisnotfully
implemented.
Fourth,explorewithRussiaareasinwhichsomecommonworkcouldbedone.Thiscould
bejudiciousEUengagementwiththeRussia-dominatedEurasianUnion,orthenecessary
"de-conflicting"ofmilitaryoperationsovertheskiesofSyria,orexplorationofthecontours
ofaSyriansettlement,inwhichRussia,despiteitscurrentdefiance,willinevitablyplaya
part.
TheWestshouldbetoughonbothitsalliesandadversaries.SupportforUkraineshould
onlybesustainedifKievpushesthroughreforms,particularlyagainsthighlevelcorruption,
asitspeopledemand.And,whileengagementwiththeKremlinisimperative,theWest
shouldstressthatatruedialogueoncrucialinternationalissuescanonlybepossibleonce
MoscowactsontheMinskpeaceplanandpullsoutofeasternUkraine.
[returntoContents]
#30
RussiaDirect
October16,2015
8reasonswhytheDutchgottheMH17reportincomplete
ThereportpublishedbytheDutchSafetyBoardontheBoeing777MalaysiaAirlines
disastercannotbedefinitivebecauseitlargelyignoresthefindingsofRussianexperts.
ByVladimirEvseev
Dr.VladimirEvseevisDirectoratCenterforSocialandPoliticalStudies.Hehasmilitary
experiencefortwentyyears,hisresearchinterestsincluderegionalaspectsofthe
internationalsecurity,nuclearnon-proliferationandballisticmissiledefense.
OnOct.13,theDutchSafetyBoardpresenteditsfinalreportonthedowningoftheBoeing
777MalaysiaAirlinespassengerplane(FlightMH17)overtheDonbasregiononJuly17last
year.Thereportwaspresentedbytheheadoftheinvestigation,TibbeYaustra,attheGilze-
RijenmilitarybaseintheNetherlands.
OneofthemaincausesofthedisasterwasidentifiedasUkraine'sfailuretocloseits
airspacetopassengerplanes,despitethehostilitiesintheDonbasregioninvolvingsurface-
to-airmissiles(SAMs).Russianexpertsagreewiththatfinding,butnotethatbothsidesin
theconflictemployedairdefensesystems.
SomeoftheblameforwhathappenedwasapportionedtoMalaysianAirlines,whichwas
"awareofthepotentialrisksofflyingovertheconflictzone."Whenthetragedyoccurred,
therewerethreepassengerplanesintheskyabovethehotspot.Thatfactcannotbe
arguedwith,butforeignairlineshadnoinformationaboutwhataltitudewasdeemedsafe.
SAMsgenerallydonotgohigherthan2.2miles(3.5km)iffiredfromaportableairdefense
system,soanaltitudeof6.2miles(10km)isconsideredsafeforcivilaviation(whichis
why,forexample,passengeraircraftcontinuedtoflyoverAfghanistanduringthearmed
conflictthere).ButKievknewthatmorepowerfulanti-aircraftmissileshadbeendeployedin
theconflictzone,primarilyitsown,butdidnotinformforeignairlinesinadvance.
Whoistoblame?
Thereisawidedivergenceofopiniononthatquestion.Forexample,theinternational
commissionsetuptoinvestigatetheaccident(whichforsomereasonexcludednotonly
Russia,butalsotheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization)reachedtheconclusionthat
theBoeing777hadbeenhitbyaRussian-madeBUKmissilefiredfromthesettlementof
Snezhnoe,whichatthattimewaspartofthemilitia-controlledDonetskPeople'sRepublic
(DPR).
Accordingtotheinvestigators,ananti-aircraftmissilestruckthecockpitontheleftside,
whichcausedtheheadoftheplanetoseparatefromthefuselage,killingallpassengers
andcrewalmostinstantaneously.Itomitsthefactthatthistypeofmissiletargetsthe
middleoftheaircrafttoensureannihilation.Thecockpitisusuallyhitbypilotsfiringfrom
aircraftcannons.
AdifferentviewisheldbyRussianexperts.Firstofall,theynotedthattheinternational
commissiondidnotprovideevidencethatthebodyoftheplanedisplayedthecharacteristic
markofaBUKmissile(abutterfly-shapedhole).Andoneofthephotographssubmittedby
thecommissiondepictspartofaBUKsystemthatcouldnothaveremainedwhollyintact
onbeingfired.
Second,thereportonMH17wassubmittedtotheRussiansideasafaitaccompli,which
meantitcouldnotbeamended.Moreover,itleavesoutmostofthecommentspreviously
madebyRussianexperts.
Third,theDutchauthoritiesdidnotpermitRussianexpertstoinspectthecrashsite.Evena
monthafterthedisaster,notallthebodieshadbeenremoved(shrapnelwoundscouldhave
beenvitalcluesfortheinternationalinvestigation).Andcontrarytoestablishedpractice,a
substantialpartofthewreckagewasleftwhereitfell,whichhamperstheconductofafull-
scalestudy.
Fourth,therewasnothoroughanalysisoftheinstructionsoftheUkrainianairtraffic
controllerswho"led"theMalaysianplaneintotheconflictzoneandtheninexplicablyaltered
itsflightlevel.
RecalltheincidentonMarch17,1994,whenaC-130militarytransportaircraftcarrying
IranianembassypersonnelwasshotdownoverNagorno-Karabakhnearthetownof
Stepanakert,killingall19passengers,including9children,andthecrewof13.Accordingto
sources,theAzerbaijaniairtrafficcontrollersintentionallydivertedtheaircraftbyabout100
km(62miles)intothecombatzone,whereitwasshotdownbyanArmenianSAM.
Fifth,thecommission'sreportdidnotconsiderthepossibilitythatFlightMH17was
interceptedbyaUkrainianjet,eventhoughtherewasoneintheimmediatevicinity.Itwould
havebeencapableofbothkillingthecrewwithaircraftcannonand"backingup"theair
defensesystem(usuallytwoSAMsarelaunchedsimultaneouslyincaseoneisofftargetin
thisinstanceanair-to-airmissilecouldhavebeenthereserveoption).
Sixth,onJuly2,2015,theAlmaz-Anteyjointstock-company,themanufactureroftheBUK
system,submitteddocumentstotheinternationalcommissiononthefirstphaseofafull-
scalestudyusingascalemodelofaBoeing777.
Itshowedthattheaircraftcouldhavebeenshotdownbya9M38Manti-aircraftmissile,
whichisnolongerinservicewiththeRussianArmedForces.However,thecommission
ignoredthedocuments.
Thesecondphaseoftheexperiment,heldonOct.7,involvedadecommissionedIL-86
plane.ItwasconfirmedthattheMalaysianBoeing777wasshotdownfromanarea
controlledatthetimebytheUkrainianArmy-2.2miles(3.5km)southofthevillageof
Zaroschenskoe.HaditbeenfiredfromSnezhnoe(asstatedbytheinternational
commission),nosubmunitioncouldhaveenteredtheplane'sengine,whichisinfactwhat
happened.
Seventh,theUnitedStatesdidnotprovidetheinternationalcommissionwithdatafrom
satellitesthatwereabovethecombatzoneatthetimeoftheincident.
Eighth,therewasnoinvestigationofUkraine'sairdefensesystems,including,forinstance,
theirlocationatthetimeoftheincidentandaphysicalinventoryoftheiranti-aircraft
missiles.
WillRussiaandtheWestagreeonthecausesofthecrash?
Forthereasonsoutlinedabove,theDutchSafetyBoardreportmaynotbeconclusive.It
doesnottakeintoaccountthetotalityoftheavailabledata,andappearssubjectiveand
politicallymotivated.The"meticulous"investigationdidnottake15months-thattimeframe
wasmerelyadelayingtacticwhenconclusiveevidenceaboutRussianinvolvementcould
notbeverified.
Unfortunately,whenitcomestoairlinedisasters,Ukrainehasnotbeenentirelyblameless.
InOctober2001aRussianTu-154passengeraircraftwashitbyaUkrainianS-200anti-
aircraftmissileovertheBlackSea,whichhadbeenlaunchedduringamilitaryexercisein
Crimea.Therewerenosurvivorsamongthe66passengersand12crewmembers.It
cannotberuledoutthatsomethingsimilarmayhavehappenedintheskiesaboveDonbas.
[returntoContents]
#31
RussiaDirect
October16,2015
TheMalaysianBoeingsagaisfarfromover
The"final"MH17reportshowsthatthereisstillalongwaytogoindeterminingwhat
actuallyhappenedinUkraine.
ByIvanTsvetkov
IvanTsvetkovisAssociateProfessorofAmericanStudies,InternationalRelations
Department,St.PetersburgStateUniversity.Heisanexpertinthefieldofhistoricalscience
andcontemporaryU.S.policyandU.S.-Russianrelations.Since2003,hehasbeenthe
authorandadministratoroftheeducationalwebsite"HistoryoftheUnitedStates:Materials
forthecourse"(http://ushistory.ru)
Thelong-awaitedfinalreportoftheDutchSafetyBoardintotheMH17disasterrevealed
answerstomanyimportantquestions.Afterstudyingthepublishedmaterials,noone,for
instance,islikelytocontinuetopromotetheair-to-airmissiletheory.
Butthereportalsoshowsthatthefinalendofthistragedyisstillalongwayoff.Evenifthe
"truth"canonedaybeestablished,doubtswilllingerallthesame.
Anever-endingstory
TheinternationalandpoliticalscaleofMH17meansthatitcanneverbefiledaway,no
matterhowmany"final"reportsareproduced.Itsimpactoninternationalrelationsalready
hasbeenfarmoreseriousthanallpreviousincidentsofciviliandeathsinvolvingmilitary
missiles.
Thedebatesurroundingtheinvestigationofthetragedyhaslongmovedonfromsimple
finger-pointing.Atstakearetheveryfoundationsoftheexistingworldorder.Optionsto
circumventRussia'svetoontheUNSecurityCouncilandtograntnewpowerstothe
InternationalCourtofJusticeareonthetable.
AccordingtotheDutchSafetyBoard,thereisstillnoanswertothekeyquestionofthe
preciselocationoftheBUKlaunchsite,whichmeansthatafurther"criminal"investigation
isneeded.
Nodoubtatthisstagethetopicwillbecomeevenmoresensitiveandrequirenotonlyexpert
butalso"strong-willed"politicaldecisions.Ifthepoliticalwillisthereonallsides,itwillnot
betoodifficulttoexplorethesuspectedregionsandgatherthenecessaryevidence.
Expertsassertthateveninthewar-scorchedearthofDonbassoilsamplescouldhelp
locatethelaunchsite.Butwillforensicexpertsbeallowedtotakethem?
TheRussianviewofMH17
OnthesamedayastheDutchSafetyBoardpublisheditsreport,theAlmaz-Anteyjoint
stock-company,whichmanufacturestheBUKmissilesystem,announcedtheresultsofa
repeatexperimenttorecreatetheconditionsofthecatastrophe.
IncontrasttotheirDutchcolleagues,Russianexpertsconsideredtheavailabledatatobe
sufficienttodeterminethelaunchsitewithreasonableaccuracy.Usingmathematical
modelingtechniques,theypinpointedasmallareathatinJuly2014wasunderthecontrol
oftheUkrainianArmy.
Moreover,basedonthedamagetothehullofthedownedBoeing(inparticular,theshapeof
theentryholes),Almaz-Antey'steamofexpertsconcludedthatthemissilethatdestroyed
theplanewaslongagodecommissionedbytheRussianArmedForces(butoddlyenough
isstillinusewiththeUkrainianmilitary).
ItwasarepeatofwhathashappenedoncountlessoccasionssinceJuly2014:Inresponse
tothedisclosureofevidencepointingtoRussia'sguilt,theRussiansideproducesitsown
evidencethatshiftstheblameontoUkraine.
Somehavegrownutterlywearyofthistug-of-war,yetmanyparticipantsinthedebatein
Russiacontinuetobelievethatthecountryisbeingtriedinabsentia,withglobalpublic
opinionasthepresidingjudge.
Thatbeingthecase,thefinalverdictwilldependonthepersuasivenessoftheparties'
arguments.Letthetrialcontinueforaslongasnecessary,sinceeveryoneisinterestedin
thesamething-establishingthetruthandpunishingtheguilty.
What'swrongwiththeRussianversionoftheMH17story
Butthelogicofatrialinwhichthejudgeispublicopiniondiffersfromtraditionalcases,even
thoseinvolvingjuries.ItisevidentthattheMH17disasterhascausedgreatdamageto
Russia'sinternationalreputationalready.
Anditwillcontinuetoinflictdamageuntiltheheadlinesdisappearfromthepagesofthe
world'snewspapers.Itisnottheverdict,butthetrialthatistherealpenalty.Butitseems
thatmuchoftheRussianpoliticaleliteandexpertcommunitywouldprefertoflatlyreject
anyaccusations.
Whatmakespeoplerememberonetragedyandquicklyforgetanother?Whyinsome
militaryconflictsaremassciviliancasualtieswrittenoffascollateraldamage,andthe
attentionofinternationalobserversdivertedelsewhere,whileothertragedies,suchas
MH17,remainonthepoliticalagendaforyearsonend?
FormanyRussianexpertstoday,theanswertothisquestionisobvious:Russophobia.
HostileforcesintheWesthaveseizedtheopportunitytohumiliateRussiaandonceagain
presentthecountryinahighlyunfavorablelight.
Theonlywaytoresist,astheyseeit,istopersistentlydefendtheirpositionbyproviding
persuasiveevidencethatRussiaisbeingslanderedandattackedbyfoesonallsides.
Butitturnsoutinpracticethateachnew"irrefutable"argumentputforwardbyself-
righteousandpoliticallymotivatedRussianexpertsonlyprolongstheproceedings,which
havelongsinceacquiredthetraitsofapoliticalspectacle.
IfoneseriouslyconsidersRussia'snationalinterestsintheMH17case,itishardtoavoid
theconclusionthatchiefamongthemshouldnotbetoprovethecountry'sinnocence,but
tobringtheprocesstoanendwhatevertheresult.
ThereisnodoubtthatifonJuly17,2014,thepro-RussianseparatistsineasternUkraine
hadacknowledgedthattheyhadmistakenlyshotdownflightMH17,believingittobea
Ukrainianmilitarytransporter,Russiawouldhavebeensparedoneofworstepisodesof
internationalcondemnationinitshistory.
Ofcourse,Russia'sreputationwouldhavesufferedanyway-butwhoin2015wouldstillbe
debatingtheissueanddreamingupwaysofbypassingRussia'sUNSecurityCouncilveto?
Butitistoolatetostartback-pedalingnow.Thewarofwordshastobewagedtothebitter
end,andtogaintheupperhanditseemsthatlesstalkaboutentryholesandamore
resoluteandevenmoreadventuresomeforeignpolicyisrequired.
TheKremlinseemstobecountingonitsoperationinSyriatoresolveMH17.
[returntoContents]
#32
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
October18,2015
MH17FinalreportisNotaFinalReportIt'sJustaLimitedHangout
Ittellsasmuchofthetruthasithasto.Butnomore.
ByPatrickArmstrong
PatrickArmstrongreceivedaPhDfromKingsCollege,UniversityofLondon,Englandin
1976andretiredin2008after30yearsasananalystfortheCanadiangovernment,
specializinginfirsttheUSSRandthenRussia.HewasaPoliticalCounselorinthe
CanadianEmbassyinMoscowfrom1993to1996.Hehasbeenafrequentspeakeratthe
WiltonParkconferencesintheUK.
[Linksherehttp://russia-insider.com/en/mh17-final-report-not-final-report-its-just-limited-
hangout/ri10575]
"Limitedhangout"isspyjargonforapartialadmissionofthetruthtoattempttocontrolthe
exposureofaclandestineoperation.Thehopeisthatthepartialtruthwillsatisfythe
questionersandtheywilllooknofurther.Thephrasecameintopopularawarenessduring
theWatergatescandalin1973asthecoverstoryunravelled.TheDutchSafetyBoard
reportontheMH17disasterisanexample.It'sapartialstatement:somethingvery
importantisleftoutbutitisnotcompletelyleftoutbecausetheremaybealaterneedfor
"reconsideration".
ThesourcesandabbreviationsIusearebelow.
-RussianMoDbriefingJuly2014(MoD)(English)
-DutchSafetyBoardFinalReportOctober2015Video(DSBV)Text(DSBT)
-Almaz-AnteyFirstReportJune2015(AA1)(Video)(Almaz-Anteyisthemanufacturerof
theBukfamilyofSAMsystemswhichhasbeeninserviceinmanycountriessince1979.
Overtheyears,asiscommonwithevolutionarySovietandRussianweaponssystems,
therehavebeenseveraldifferentrocketsandwarheaddesigns.)
-Almaz-AnteySecondReportOctober2015(AA2)(SlideshowinEnglish)
InAugustIpublishedapieceatRInamed"QuestionsaRealMH17ReportWouldAnswer".
TheDSBreportfailsmytestbutitfailsitinaninterestingway:inalimitedhangoutway,in
fact.Isaidtherewerefourvitalpointsthatmustbeaddressed:
1.The"blackboxes"willtelluswhereMH17waswhenitwashit,whatdirectionitwas
goingin,whatspeeditwastravelling.
2.Analysisofthedamagepatternofthewreckagewillshowwherethemissilewaswhen
itdetonated.
3.Backtrackingfromthatpointwillshowfromwhereitwaslaunched.
4.Lethalfragmentswillshowwhatweaponhitit.
Thereportdealswith1satisfactorily,thereisaquestionabout4butitisinitsanswerto
numbers2and3thatweseethelimitedhangout.
ThereportwasdeliveredbyitsChairman,TjibbeJoustra,[quondamtheNetherlands'
NationalAntiterrorismCoordinator-isthatsignificant?Youdecide,DearReader-and
ChairmanoftheDSBsinceFebruary2011]whostatedthatitwasnottheDSB'sjobto
assignblame.TheDSB'sconclusionwasthatMH17wasbroughtdownbytheexplosionof
9N314Mwarheadascarriedon9M38seriesBuksurface-to-airmissile(SAM)(DSBT-9)
otherscenarioswereconsidered,analysedandexcluded.Itoffersanareafromwhichit
believesthemissilewaslaunched.
TheFlightDataRecorder(both"blackboxes"wereingoodshape)showedMH17flyingat
33,000ftheading115at293kts(542kph).Therecordingstoppedat13.20:03UTCat
48.12715N38.52630538E(DSBT-47).
IbeginwithmyprincipalconclusionthattheDSBreportisa"limitedhangout".
Byignoringthedamagetotheportwingandportengine,theBoardwasabletoshiftthe
approachrouteofthemissileawayfromKiev-heldterritorysouthofMH17'sroutetorebel-
heldterritoryinthesouth-east.
Theimportanceofleavingoutthewingandengine
TheDutchSafetyBoarddidnottakeintoaccountthedamagetotheportwingandtheport
engine(seebelow).Whileitdidprovideaphotoofthedamagedportengineintakeringat
DSBT-50,thereisnootherdiscussionofdamagetotheengineandIbelievethatthe
inclusionofthephotoprovidestheDSBwithan"out"shouldtherebeaneedforalater
"reconsideration"oftheevidence.Tosummarise(seebelow):theDSBestablishedapoint
atwhichthedetonationoccurredtheDSBunderstoodtheblastpatternofthewarhead
(DSBT-130butseeabetterrepresentationatAA2-35).Butitignoredthefactthatthe
existenceofdamagetotheportwingandportengineprovesthatthemissilehadtohave
comefromthesideofMH17andnotfrominfrontofit.Thatisthekeypoint:everythingup
tothatpointintheanalysisofthedestructionofMH17(leavingasidetherathersmall
numberof"bow-ties"-seebelow)iscloselyreasoned.Thesleightofhandoccurswhen
thewingandengineareforgotten.Concentratingonlyonthedamagetothecockpitallows
thepathofthemissiletobetwistedfromthesouthtothesouth-westasisrequiredbythe
"rebelsdidittheory".Alaunchpointfromthesouthrulesthatpossibilityout.
ThisisillustratedatAA2-21.BothAlmaz-Anteyreportscalculatedthefiringpointasbeing
nearZaroshchenskoyewhiletheDSBcalculatesitasbeingnearSnezhnoye.AA2-21
showsadamagecomparison:aBukfiredfromZaroshchenskoyedamagestheportwing
andportengine,aBukfiredfromSnezhnoyedoesnot.Thedamagetothecockpitissimilar
ineachscenario.
BecausethedamagetotheportwingandportenginewasignoredbytheDSBreport,they
wereabletomaketheapproachlineofthemissileclosertothedirectionMH17was
heading,whichallowedthemtocalculatethelaunchpointsoastoincluderebel-held
territory.Hadtheyincludedtheportwingandportenginedamage,theywouldhavebeen
forcedtoacceptalaunchpointfarthersouthintoKiev-heldterritory.
Inshort,theytoldasmuchtruthastheycouldwithoutcompromisingtherequiredanswer.A
"limitedhangout"indeed.
Buttherearesomeother-lesssignificant,tobesure-pointsthatshouldbeconsidered.
MissingRadarData
Thefirstpointworthyofattentionistheradardataor,rather,itsabsence.Wearetoldthat
"TheUkrainiancivilprimaryradarstationsintheareawerenotfunctioningatthetimeofthe
crashduetoscheduledmaintenance.Themilitaryprimaryradarstationswerealsonot
operational.TheUkrainianMinistryofDefencestatedthatthissystemwasnotoperational,
becausetherewerenoUkrainianmilitaryaircraftinthesectorthroughwhichflightMH17
flew"(DSBT-38).NATOhadanAWACSaircraftintheairbutthatsaidMH17wasoutofits
range(DSBT-44).ThusonlylimitedradarinformationwasavailablefromUkraineand
nothingfromNATO.
Thisisnotbelievable.Ignoringthe"scheduledmaintenance"stuff,theUkrainianMinistryof
Defencestatementthattherewerenomilitaryaircraftintheareaiscontradictedwhen
DSBT-185informsusthatKievclaimedthatamilitaryaircraftwasfiredatintheDonetsk
areaonthatveryday.Thatislessthan40kmsawayfromMH17.AstoNATO,itisabsurd
tothinkthatNATOhadanAWACSaircraftupthatwasnotlookingatthefightingarea.The
DSBacceptsthesestatementswithoutcomment.
Russiaalsoprovidedlimitedradarinformationbecause,itsaid,asthecrashoccurred
outsideofRussianterritory,itdidnotrecordtheprimarydata(DSBT-42).Thereport
spendssometimechidingRussiaforthis.
FlightPath
AnotherofthepointsthatImadeinmyRIpiecewasthechangeintheflightpathas
recordedintheFlightAwarewebsite.NomentionwhatsoeverismadeofthatintheDSB
report.Ididnotice,however,thattheflightplanasshownatDSBT-212showsaslightturn
totheleftattheGermany-PolandborderandaslightturntotherightattheKazakhstan-
Turkmenistanborder.Ifweremovethisslightdeviation,wehaveastraightlineflightpath
thatgoesovertheSeaofAzovastheearlierroutesdidbeforetheywerechangedon
FlightAware.
IstillbelievethatthisisapointthathasbeeninsufficientlydiscussedandIremindreaders
ofthescreenshotstakenoftheFlightAwaretracksshowingpreviousrouteswellsouthof
thetracktakenthatdaybyMH17shownhereandhere.Iremembernoticingthechangeat
thetimeandthinkingthattheflightpathof17Julywasthefirstquestionthathadtobe
answered.Again,theDSBmakesnomentionofanyotherroutestakenbythisdailyflight.
Fighterplanes
Astothefighterplanestorytheflatstatementismadethattherearenoaircraftshownon
theUkrainianradartracksexceptMH17andtwoothercommercialflights(DSBT-114).No
mentionwhatsoeverismadeoftheRussianpresentation(MoD9thillustration)thatshowed
afighterplaneclosetoMH17.(Butnotethecarefulstatementthatthereisnothingonthe
Ukrainianradartracks.PerhapstheDSBisleavingspaceforalater"reconsideration".)The
reportrulesoutcannonfirebecause1)therearetoomanyholesinthefuselagefora
limitednumberofcannonrounds2)thepresenceof"bow-tie"fragments(seebelow)3)
therewerenomilitaryaircraftinthearea(DSBT-126).ItreturnstotheissueatDSB-131
whereitarguesthatallpenetrationsofMH17camefromasinglepoint.
PersonallyIdonotfindthisveryconvincingandIdonotbelievethatthepresenceofa
fighteraswellasaSAMisexcluded,althoughitisclearthattheSAMwassufficienttobring
theplanedownandkillthecockpitcrew.ButtheDSBoughttohavesaidsomethingabout
theRussianstatementthattherewasafighterplanenearby.Andcertainlytherearemany
holesinthewreckagethatlookasiftheymaybecausedbycannonfire.Andthenthereare
thenumerousclaimedeyewitnessstatementsoffightersinthearea.Allthisshouldhave
beendiscussedand,ifrejected,rejectedwithseriousargumentsandevidence.
Thereconstructionandthedamage
Wenowcometoananalysisofthereconstructedaircraft.Or-andthisisapointofgreat
significance-thepartlyreconstructedaircraft.DSBVgivesagoodviewofthe
reconstructionat22:44.Weseethatthecockpitandpartofthelowerforwardpassenger
sectionisallthathasbeenconstructed.Missingaretheportwingandportengine.Thisis
thekeytothelimitedhangout.
DSBT-55beginsalongsectiondetailingwhatpartswererecoveredandfromwherethey
wererecovered.Everythingisaccountedforexcept-animportantexception-missileparts
consistentwithanBuk9M38missile(DSBT-80).Nolocationisgivenforthemandthereis
nochainofcustodygiven.Arethesethepartsreportedtohavebeenfoundonlyaslateas
August2015?Wearemerelyinformedtheywerefound"inthewreckagearea".
PhotographsappearatDSBT-82.
AlongsectionanalysesthesoundsfromtheCockpitVoiceRecorderandestablishesa
sourceoutsidethetheupperportsideofthecockpit(DSBT-112)Thisisassumedtobethe
locationofthecentreoftheexplosion.Thislocationisverifiedbyanalysingtheholes
(DSBT-124).Allthisisperfectlyconvincing.
About75fragmentswerefoundinthehumanremains.Someofthesearearguedtohave
comefromoutsidethroughtheaircraftskinsomephotosatDSBT-89.Twoofthese
(three?)areclaimedtobe"bow-tie"shaped(DSBT-92).Thesetwo-orisitthreeorfour?-
"bow-tie"shapedfragmentsareconclusiveasfarastheDSBisconcerned:theirassertion
thatitwasaBukwarheadtype9N314Mcompletelydependsonthesetwoorthreeorfour
fragments.JohnHelmerhasarguedthatthereisasuspiciousamountofsecrecyand
nationalsecurityaboutthesevitalpieces.
ThisisapointofcontentionwithAlmaz-Antey'sreportswhichmaintainthattheBukused
didnothavea"bow-tie"warhead.AA2,whichusedastatictestofaBukwith"bow-tie"
(Almaz-Anteycallsthem"I-beam")shapedparticlesinitswarhead,arguesthatthe
resultingdestructionpatternshowsbow-tie/I-beamshapedholes(AA2-27)(whichDSBT
doesnot)andmanymorebow-tie/I-beamfragments-therearemorethan2000inthat
particularwarheaddesign-inthewreckagethantwoorfour.FromthisAlmaz-Antey
concludesthatthewarheadusedwasnotthe9N314M(whichhasbow-ties/I-beams)but
theB9N314whichdoesnot.TheirpointisthatthisisthetypeofBukinUkrainianservice
butnolongerinRussianservice.
Launchpointofthemissile.
DSBT-144givestheestimatedlaunchpointfortheBuk.Itchoosesaratherlargeareato
theeastofTorezmore-or-lessinfrontofMH17.Inthatareaisasmalleroneitclaimsto
havebeenprovidedbyAlmaz-AnteyandastillsmalleroneprovidedbytheKievauthorities.
Thereforeamissilefiredfromanyofthesepositionswouldhavebeenapproximatelyhead-
ontoMH17(fromdirectlyhead-ontoabout30).ThisisonethingtowhichIwillreturn,butI
mustsayIdonotunderstandwhattheDSBistalkingaboutwhenitincludesanAlmaz-
Anteyestimateofthelaunchpointinthisarea:neitherAlmaz-Anteypresentationgivesan
origininthatarea.Aswesawabove,Almaz-Anteygivesanestimatedfiringpointthatwould
placethemissilelaunchpointmuchmoretotherightofMH17-atroughly60fromits
course.Whichbringsusbacktothekeypoint:ignoringthedamagetotheportwingand
portengineallowstheDSBtomakethemissiletrackmoretothefrontofMH17'scourse.
Suchanoriginisimpossibleifthedamagetothewingandenginearetakenintoaccount.
TheDSBreportelidestheissuealtogetherbutdoesprovidean"out"byshowingaphotoof
theenginedamage.
Conclusion
Thereareanumberofquestionsthatcanberaisedaboutthereport:thelackofprimary
radardatafromUkraineandNATOisjustnotbelievableandtheauthorsshouldnothave
blandlyacceptedit:therewereUkrainianfightersintheairandnooneshouldpossibly
believethatNATOassetsweren'twatchingthearea.
ThereportairilyignorestheRussianMoDclaimofafighterplanenearMH17(although
leavesitselfanoutbysayingtheUkrainiandatashowednothing).
The"flightroutequestion"iscompletelyunaddressed.
Toomuchhangsontheverysmallnumberofbow-tie/I-beampieces.
Bythemainthingisthat,becauseithasignoredthedamagetotheportwingandport
engine(althoughleavingaphotoofthelatterinthereportsoastoprovideanout),itisable
toshifttheapproachlineofthemissileawayfromKiev-heldterritorytothesouthofMH17's
routetorebel-heldterritoryinthesouth-east.
Sowhathappened?
IagreethatwewillprobablynotknowuntiltheregimeinKievcollapsesorsomeEdward
Snowdenrevealssomething.(Although,asitnowappearsthattheKievregimeisactually
questioningtheofficial"heavenlyhundred"sniperstory,discussedherebyGordonHahn,
whocansaywhat'snext?).
Iwouldsuggestthefollowingpossibilities.
TheKievforcesdeployedBuksbecausetheyhadconvincedthemselvesthatRussian
aircraftwereshootingtheiraircraftdown(DSBT-183).
-TheythoughttheyhadatargetandfiredandhitMH17byaccident,
-Or,whilepractisingtheyshotitdownbyaccident.
-(ItshouldberecalledthatUkrainianairdefenceforcesshotdownapassengeraircraft
in2001andliedaboutituntiltheycouldlienomore.)
ItwasshotdownonpurposesoastocreateanatrocitythatcouldbeblamedonRussia.
-ByorderoftheKievgovernment,
-Or,bysomeentitynotunderKiev'scontrol,
-Perhaps,eitherway,bysuggestionofsomeagencyintheUSA
ItshouldberecalledthattheUSAin1962didseriouslyentertainaschemetoshoot
downapassengerplaneandblameitonCastro.("Itispossibletocreateanincidentwhich
willdemonstrateconvincinglythataCubanaircrafthasattackedandshotdownachartered
civilairliner..."Admittedly,theplancalledfornopassengerstobekilled).
Themediadogisnolongerbarking
Iwoulddrawthereader'sattentiontothemediacoverage.Amediacampaignblamingthe
rebelsandRussiabeganalmostimmediatelyafterthecrashontheotherhand,themedia
hasbeenverysilentabouttheDSBreport.TheDailyMailcanserveasanexampleofboth:
"Anythingtoconfess,Putin?Russianpresidentinchurchasworldleaderswarnhimyou
can't'washyourhands'ofMH17disaster"18July2014("Amidgrowingevidencethatthe
flightwashitbyasophisticatedsurface-to-airmissile,launchedfromareascontrolledby
pro-RussianrebelsintheseparatisteasternregionsofUkraine,fingershaveincreasingly
beenpointedatRussianpresidentVladimirPutin,whodeniesinvolvement.")and"Russian
missilekilledpilotsandcutjetinhalfbutpassengerscouldhavebeenconsciousforuptoa
minuteasplaneplunged,revealsofficialreportintoMH17downedoverUkraine"17October
2015(ratherneutralcoveragefullof"hesaid,shesaid").Andthestoryseemstohave
disappeared.Acynicmightbeexcusedforwonderingifsomecentralagencyputsoutthe
storyline.Ifindthissuggestive.
Towatch
AsforfurtherdevelopmentsIrecommendAlexanderMercouris'pieceonRI-thereare
somelegalcasescomingupthatmayproveinteresting.IalsorecommendJohnHelmer's
writingsonthesubjectathisblogDanceswithBears.Thestoryappearstobeunravelling
inseveralplacesatonce.Healsogoesintomoredetailsonthetinynumberofbow-tie/I-
beamsonwhichtheDSBhangssomuchofitscase.
Staytuned,theremaybemoretocome.

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