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38th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference & Exhibit AIAA 2002-4043

7-10 July 2002, Indianapolis, Indiana


AIAA-2002-4043

Probabilistic FMECA
Joseph T. Pizzo Consultant 0 Alexandria
0

Ron M. Adib 0 Pratt & Whitney Space Propulsion San Jose 0

Key Words: FMECA, burdens, capabilities, probability, sensitivity analysis, factor of safety, margin of safety

each failure mode by looking at the structural failure


SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS modes using safety factors or margin of safety and
ignoring other variables andor using some failure rates
from a very small database. In section 2.3.1 we will
In this paper, a probabilistic Failure mode,
discuss the fallacy associated with the use of safety
Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) approach is
factors or margin of safety.
presented that combines concepts of burden and
capability analysis with other variables, such as
The quantitative approach can address the
material, pressure, temperature etc. for conducting a
potential failure modes of critical components of a
FMECA. This analysis helps the design team to predict
system and find a means of eliminating or reducing the
the probability of success with a high level of
associated risks by accurately identifying the impact on
confidence. The analysis was performed on a major
changes to the reliability of a system. In this manner,
component of a Solid Propulsion System (SPS), namely
either corrective or compensating actions can be taken
the insulation, to illustrate how the method could be
to ensure program success is accomplished.
utilized to improve the design.
In this paper, a probabilistic analytical
The results of the probabilistic reliability
approach is introduced that combines the concepts of
analysis of the insulation, provide a reliability value of
burden versus capability analysis, with an enhanced
0.9999995 14, based on the model used to represent the
format for conducting the FMECA. By using this
insulation characteristics. In addition, a sensitivity
approach, the design engineer can keep track of the
analysis was conducted to determine the relative
potential failure modes of the critical components and
contribution of each of the variabIes in the insulation
implement appropriate improvements in the design in
model to the overall reliability of the system.
the early stages of the program. The technique can also
Comparison of the changes to the base solution indicate
be used to analyze the manufacturing process and the
that many of the causal variables with f 3 standard
operational phase of a program to gain an overall
deviations (+30), namely the propellant web (3+),
assurance of high reliability of the system. The
propellant bum rate (3f), insulation thickness (3-), probabilistic analytical approach is the recommended
erosion rate (3+), and the motor bum time (3-), provide
way of conducting reliability analysis for nonrenewable
a larger reliability value than the base.
and critical systems that require high reliability.
Achieving the goal of high reliability early in a system's
development would be cost-effective and therefore
1. INTRODUCTION should be a value-added incentive for manufacturers in
both the government and commercial markets.
Identifying failure modes for a new or
upgraded design is hndamental for determining the In this paper, a probabilistic FMECA is
reliability of a system. Failure modes, effects and performed on a major component of an SPS subsystem,
criticality analysis (FMECA) is one of the most widely namely the insulation, to illustrate how the method can
used and most effective reliability analysis methods. be utilized to improve the design of a system. The input
However, because of the need for forcasting the high information on the variable's failure mechanisms in the
reliability requirement of critical or nonrenewable insulation model is provided in order to conduct the
systems such as medical devices or SPS, it is essential analysis and provide the data format for identifying
to employ a methodology that can provide these results. reliability critical failure modes and effects. The
Engineers have done qualitative FMECA for several method is generic, and can be applied to any system
decades. Some have done quantitative FMECA, where the reliability/cost trade-offs make it beneficial
whereby they have assigned a probability of failure to

1
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Copyright 2002 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.

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