PRESCRIPTION DRUGS OUTLOOK

Worldwide sales of prescription drugs are set for strong growth over the next half-decade and most of this growth will be
driven by the prospects for a raft of new products coming on the market. However, strong competition from generics, the
loss of sales following patent expiration and the constant uncertainty over drug approvals puts these forecasts at risk

2008
GLOBAL PRESCRIPTION DRUG SALES ($BN)
1,100
Prescriptions excluding generics and orphans 20
0 9
Generics 1,000
Orphan drugs targeted at rare diseases
900
20

10
800

700

6.3% $169bn $343bn

600

20
11
estimated of new sales of new sales 500
compound annual expected in 2022 in 2022 will
growth in global will come from the be exposed
prescription drug current research to clinical 400
sales between and development and market
2016 and 2022 pharmaceutical access risk
pipeline, equal 300
to around half

2012
200

100

1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100
100

2013
2022

200
300
400
500
20

14
20
21

600
700
800

20
15
20

20
900
1,000

20 16
19 0
1,100

2018 2017

GLOBAL PRESCRIPTION DRUG SALES AT RISK FROM GLOBAL PRESCRIPTION AND OVER-THE-COUNTER DRUG SALES ($BN)*
PATENT EXPIRATION ($BN) COMPARING SALES IN 2015 AND 2022 BY CATEGORY
Sales at risk represent product sales in the year prior to patent 2015 sales 2022 sales Compound annual growth rate
expiry but allocated to the year of expiry
Percentage
Sales at risk Expected sales lost of total market
at risk

2008 12 16 3%
01
2009 10 26 4% Oncology
83.2 +12.5% 190
2010 9 29 4%
2011 20 33 5%
02
2012 38 52 7% 41.7 +6.8% 66.1
Anti-diabetics
2013 23 4%
29
2014 21 35 5%
03
2015 17 48 6% 48.8 +1.6% 54.5
Anti-rheumatics
2016 24 50 6%
2017 19 34 4%
04
2018 16 32 4% 50.7 +0.4% 50.9
Anti-virals
2019 20 40 4%
2020 16 18 2%
05
2021 12 23 2% 27.6 +5.1% 39
Vaccines
2022 12 52 5%

06
Bronchodilators
30.2 +2% 34.7

GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL RESEARCH Percentage

of prescription
AND DEVELOPMENT SPEND ($BN) sales 07
Sensory organs
19.8 +7.7% 33.3
2008 132.9 20.2%
2009 129 19.4%
08
2010 130.1 19% Anti-hypertensives
25.7 +0.4% 26.5
2011 137.5 18.9%
2012 136.5 19% 09
+10.4% 24.3
2013 138.2 19.1% Dermatologicals
12.1
2014 143.1 19.1%

149.8 20.2%
10
2015 +2% 23.2
Multiple sclerosis
2016 153.8 19.8% therapies 20.2
2017 159 19.3%
11
+12.8% 22.1
2018 163.4 18.7% Immunosuppressants
9.5
2019 167.5 18%
2020 172.3 17.3% 12
+8% 20.3
Anti-coagulants
2021 177 16.7% 11.9
*Industry sales are based on the top 500 pharmaceutical
2022 182 16.2% and biotechnology companies EvaluatePharma 2016