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By David Biello

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A new report lays out the impacts associated with each degree rise in
global average temperatures in a bid to improve decisions about how much global warming is
too much.
NASA Earth Observatory

The average temperature of the planet for the next several thousand years will be determined
this century²by those of us living today, according to a new National Research Council
report which lays out the impact of every degree of warming on outcomes ranging from sea-
level rise to reduced crop yields.

"Because carbon dioxide is so long-lived in the atmosphere, it could effectively lock Earth
and future generations into warming not just for decades and centuries, but literally for
thousands of years," atmospheric scientist Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, who chaired the report, said at a July 16 press briefing held to
release it. She compared CO2 to cheesecake: "If I knew that every pound of cheesecake that I
ate would give me a pound that could never be lost, I think I would eat a lot less cheesecake."

According to the report, for every degree Celsius of warming, impacts include:

* A 5 to 15 percent lower yield for some crops, including corn in Africa and the U.S., and
wheat in India
* A 3 to 10 percent increase in heavy rainfall globally

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* A 5 to 10 percent drop in rainfall in southwestern North America, southern Africa and the
Mediterranean, among other precipitation changes
* A 5 to 10 percent change (increases in some regions, decreases in others) in stream flow in
many river basins globally
* A 15 to 25 percent decrease in the extent of Arctic Ocean sea ice

The report's authors were charged with evaluating a range of "greenhouse gas±stabilization
targets and describe the types and scale of impacts likely associated" without any judgment
on whether such targets are "technically feasible" or which is "most appropriate." In essence,
the scientists evaluated the impacts associated with a given final level of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere, but did so through the lens of temperature change.

This represents a shift in the usual analysis of climate change, particularly in international
negotiations, which tend to focus on how much concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere will rise by a particular date. "Many impacts respond directly to changes in
global temperature, regardless of the sensitivity of the planet to human emissions of CO2 and
other greenhouse gases," says geoscientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University in
Lubbock, a co-author of the report, excluding effects such as ocean acidification and CO2 as
a fertilizer for plants. "Those impacts don't 'care' about what the CO2 concentration is."

It also eliminates much of the uncertainty surrounding potentially ill effects; whereas various
mathematical models may disagree about when and at what concentrations Arctic Ocean sea
ice disappears, they all agree that at roughly 3 degrees C of warming, the far north will be
ice-free. "It's amazing how consistent they become," Solomon says. "At what point do you
get to three to four degrees of warming, which is roughly the time when Arctic sea ice is
mostly gone."

Adds economist Gary Yohe of Wesleyan University, another co-author: "We will commit to
an ice-free Arctic sometime this century. We won't know definitively until 2090, but
essentially there's nothing we can do about it at that point in time and it changes the climate
system dramatically."

Already, the planet's average temperature has warmed by 0.7 degree C, which is "very likely"
(greater than 90 percent certain) to be a result of the rising concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
That's about half what can ultimately be expected from the roughly 390 parts per million of
CO2 already in the atmosphere²the highest level the planet has experienced in at least
800,000 years.

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One result of the survey of existing research undertaken by the scientists is the clear and
dominant role played by CO2. Although a wide variety of greenhouse gases contribute to
human-caused global warming, it is CO2, largely alone, that will determine the long-term
climate, Solomon says. "If you reduce emissions of methane or black carbon, it would help
you trim the peak warming that will be achieved in the next century or so," Solomon says.
But it's the "cumulative carbon that will determine the long-term human footprint on this
planet."

That's because it can take thousands of years to remove CO2 from the atmosphere without
human intervention. So what matters most as far as total warming is the ultimate stabilized

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level of CO2. "It doesn't matter what road you pick to get there," Solomon notes. And
achieving any stabilization target²whether 2 degrees C of warming or 450 ppm or 1,000
gigatons of carbon added to the atmosphere by human activity²will require at least an 80
percent cut in emissions from peak levels by the end of this century and, ultimately, zero
emissions over the long term. "You can get there by cutting now at rates of 1 percent per year
for the rest of the century or let carbon emissions rates grow for awhile and cut harder later to
the tune of 4 percent per year," Solomon explains.

Yohe estimates the cost of achieving a more modest goal of holding warming to roughly 2
degrees C at a cost of 0.5 to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product for the U.S. by 2050,
thanks to the expense incurred by, for example, replacing existing coal-fired power plants
with renewables or retrofitting them with carbon-capture technology. That hardly impacts the
U.S. economy at all. "With usual growth, we'd get to the same level of GDP in 2051 that we
would have gotten in 2050," he says. "It's not an awful disaster. The hyperbole of 'all these
green jobs' or 'we're going to trash the economy'²neither one [is] true."

Already, cities such as New York have adopted a risk-management approach to potential
climate impacts²preparing for the prospects posed by already guaranteed global warming.
By analyzing current building codes and the like, the New York City Panel on Climate
Change determined the acceptable level of risk for its residents and is now prioritizing
projects that hold to those same levels the perils from climate change impacts directly on the
city, such as sea-level rise or more frequent heat waves. "You can't actually climate-proof a
city," says Adam Freed, acting director of the city's Office of Long-Term Planning and
Sustainability. But "the benefits of the things that make sense to do today greatly increase as
our climate changes."

It remains to be seen whether there is economic value to the idea of overshooting a given
target and then coming back down, given that the time frame of emission cuts matters less
than the cumulative emissions of CO2, Yohe notes. It is clear that there is no environmental
benefit to delay. "Climate change is already altering the character of the places we know and
love," Hayhoe says. "Unchecked, it has the potential to impact nearly every aspect of human
infrastructure and our natural environment²from our cities and roads to our forests and
fields."

Regardless, the report notes that the planet has entered a new era, dubbed the Anthropocene,
"during which the evolution of the planet's environment will be largely controlled by the
effects of human activities, notably emissions of carbon dioxide." Hayhoe, for one, compares
this report with a doctor's visit for Earth²the chronic disease being human-emitted carbon
dioxide. "Many of us have had the experience of going to the doctor and receiving advice on
how to improve our health by making wise lifestyle choices," she notes. "It's up to us to
decide how much we are willing to change."

"There are all kinds of options: carbon sequestration, geoengineering, alternative energy,"
Solomon notes. "How much can we adapt? Look at corn. Maybe we can choose to grow
something else or genetically engineer that corn to make it more robust."

The catch is: the decision is not just for the planet today and its present generations, it is also
for the planet and generations to come. "The impacts we may be experiencing now and in the
next few decades before choosing to stabilize CO2 levels," Solomon notes, "would only be
about half the eventual impacts."

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ˮΪϣ΁ Ϊϫ΍ϮΧ Ϫ̩ Ύϣ Ϧϴϣί ήγ ήΑ

̵Ύϫ εϭέ ήψϨϣ ί΍ ΍έ ̶ϳ΍Ϯϫ ϭ Ώ΁ Ε΍ήϴϴϐΗ Ε΍ήΛ΍ ΎΗ ΪϨηϼΗ έΩ ϥ΍ΪϨϤθϧ΍Ω Ϫ̯ ΪϨϧ΁ ̵ΎϳϮ̳ ΪϳΪΟ έΎΒΧ΍
.ΪϨϨ̯ ̶γέήΑ Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ ̵ίΎγ ΖϴΒΜΗ ϥϮ̳ΎϧϮ̳

έ΍ήϗ ̶γέήΑ ΩέϮϣ Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ ί΍ ϪΟέΩ ̮ϳ ήϫ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ί΍ ̶ηΎϧ Ε΍ήΛ΍ ϦϳϮϧ ̶θϫϭ̡̬έΩ ΍ήϴΧ΍
.ΩϮϤϧ ΫΎΨΗ΍ ϥΪη ήΗ ϡή̳ ίΎΠϣ ΪΣ ̵ ϪϨϴϣί έΩ ̵ήΘϬΑ ΕΎϤϴϤμΗ ϥ΍ϮΘΑ ΎΗ Ζγ΍ ϪΘϓή̳

Ϧϴ̴ϧΎϴϣ ̵ΎϣΩ ,Ζγ΍ ϪΘϓή̳ ΕέϮλ (ϩΪΤΘϣ ΕϻΎϳ΍) ΕΎϘϴϘΤΗ ̶Ϡϣ ̵΍έϮη ςγϮΗ Ϫ̯ ζϫϭ̡̬ Ϧϳ΍ ήΑΎϨΑ
έΩ.ΩϮη ̶ϣ ϦϴϴόΗ ϩέΎϴγ Ϧϳ΍ ̶Ϡόϓ ϥΎϨ̯Ύγ Ύϣ ςγϮΗ --ϥήϗ ϦϴϤϫ έΩ ϩΪϨϳ΁ ϝΎγ Ϊλ ΪϨ̩ έΩ Ϧϴϣί
ΎΗ ϪΘϓή̳ Ύϫ ΎϳέΩ Ώ΁ ΢τγ ϥΪϣ΁ϻΎΑ ί΍ Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ ί΍ ϪΟέΩ ήϫ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ί΍ ̶ηΎϧ Ε΍ήΛ΍ ζϫϭ̡̬ Ϧϳ΍
.Ζγ΍ ϩΪη ̶γέήΑ ̵ίέϭΎθ̯ ΕϻϮμΤϣ ΪϴϟϮΗ ζϫΎ̯

έΩ Ζγ΍ ϪΘϓή̳ ΕέϮλ ̵ϮΟϭ ̶γϮϧΎϴϗ΍ ̶Ϡϣ ϥΎϣίΎγ έΩ Ϫ̯ ζϫϭ̡̬ Ϧϳ΍ ϝϮΌδϣ ϥΎϤϴϠγ ϥ΍ίϮγ
̶ϧϻϮσ έΎϴδΑ ΕΪϣ ̵΍ήΑ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ Ϫ̯ ̶ϳΎΠϧ΁ ί΍ : ΪϳϮ̳ ̶ϣ ϭ΍,ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϖϴϘΤΗ Ϧϴϣί ϮΟ ϪϨϴϣί
ϪϫΩ ̵΍ήΑ ΎϬϨΗ Ϫϧ ΍έ ϩΪϨϳ΁ ̵Ύϫ Ϟδϧ ϭ ΪϨ̯ Ϟϔϗ ΍έ Ϧϴϣί ̵ήΛϮϣ έϮσ ϪΑ Ϊϧ΍ϮΗ ̶ϣ ,ΪϧΎϣ ̶ϣ ̶ϗΎΑ ϮΟ έΩ
̮ϴ̯ ̮ϳ ϪΑ ΍έ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ϭ΍ .ΩίΎγ έΎΘϓή̳ Ύϣή̳ έΩ ϝΎγ ϥ΍έ΍ΰϫ ̵΍ήΑ Ϫ̰ϠΑ ,Ύϫ ϥήϗ ϭ Ύϫ
ϥΎϤϧίϭ ήΑ ΪϧϮ̡ ̮ϳ ϢϳέϮΧ ̶ϣ Ϫ̯ ̵ήϴϨ̡ ̮ϴ̯ Ϧϳ΍ ί΍ ΪϧϮ̡ ήϫ Ϫ̯ Ϣϴϧ΍ΪΑ ή̳΍ :ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϪϴΒθΗ ̵ήϴϨ̡
.ΩέϮΧ Ϣϴϫ΍ϮΧ ϥ΁ ί΍ ήΘϤ̯ ̶ϠϴΧ ή̴ϳΩ ,ΩϮη ̶Ϥϧ Ϣ̯ ϩΎ̴̪ϴϫ ή̴ϳΩ Ϫ̯ ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϪϓΎο΍
:Ω΍Ω ΪϨϫ΍ϮΧ Υέ ήϳί ̵Ύϫ ΪϣΎϴ̡ Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ ί΍ ϪΟέΩ ̮ϳ ήϫ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ̵΍ί΍ ϪΑ ,εέ΍ΰ̳ Ϧϳ΍ ϖΒσ ήΑ

ϭ Ύ̰ϳήϣ΁ ϭ ΎϘϳήϓ΁ έΩ ΕέΫ ϞϣΎη,̵ίέϭΎθ̯ ΕϻϮμΤϣ ̶ΧήΑ ΪϴϟϮΗ ̵ΪλέΩ 15ΎΗ 5 ζϫΎ̯c j
.ΪϨϫ έΩ ϮΟ
ϥΎϬΟ ΢τγ έΩ Ϧϴ̴Ϩγ ̵Ύϫ εέΎΑ ̵ΪλέΩ 10 ΎΗ 3 ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍c j
ϭ ̶ΑϮϨΟ ̵ΎϘϳήϓ΁,̶ϟΎϤη ̵Ύ̰ϳήϣ΁ ̶ΑήϏ ΏϮϨΟ ̶Σ΍Ϯϧ έΩ ̶̳ΪϧέΎΑ ̵ΪλέΩ 10 ΎΗ 5 ζϫΎ̯c j
.̶ηέΎΑ Ε΍ήϴϴϐΗ ή̴ϳΩ έΎϨ̯ έΩ , Ϫϧ΍ήΘϳΪϣ ΎϳέΩ
Ώ΁ ϥΎϳήΟ έΩ (ζϫΎ̯ ή̴ϳΩ ̶ΧήΑ έΩ ϭ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ̶Σ΍Ϯϧ ̶ΧήΑ έΩ )̵ΪλέΩ 10 ΎΗ 5 ήϴϐΗc j
ϥΎϬΟ ̵Ύϫ ϪϧΎΧΩϭέ ί΍ ̵έΎϴδΑ ̵ ϩίϮΣ
ΏϮϨΟϭ ϝΎϤη ΐτϗ ̵Ύϫ αϮϧΎϴϗ΍ ̵Ύϫ Φϳ έ΍ΪϘϣ ̵ΪλέΩ 25 ΎΗ 15ζϫΎ̯c j

̵΍ ϪϧΎΨϠ̳ ̵Ύϫ ίΎ̳ ήϳΩΎϘϣ ΖϴΒΜΗ ̵Ύϫ εϭέ ω΍Ϯϧ΍ ̶γέήΑ ϝϮΌδϣ ϪόϟΎτϣ Ϧϳ΍ ̶Ϡλ΍ ή̴θϫϭ̡̬
Ϫ̯ ΩέϮϣ Ϧϳ΍ έΩ ̵έϭ΍Ω ζϴ̡ ϪϧϮ̴̪ϴϫ ϥϭΪΑ , Ζγ΍ ϥ΁ ̶ϟΎϤΘΣ ΍ Ε΍ήΛ΍ ϥ΍ΰϴϣ ϭ ω΍Ϯϧ΍ ϒϴλϮΗ ϭ
.ΪϨΘδϫ ήΗ ΐγΎϨϣ ̮ϳ ϡ΍Ϊ̯ Ϫ̯ Ϧϳ΍ Ύϳ ϭ ΪϨΘδϫ ήϳά̡ ϥΎ̰ϣ΍ ̶̰ϴϨ̰Η υΎΤϟ ί΍ ̶ϳΎϫ εϭέ ϦϴϨ̩ Ύϳ΁
ϮΟ έΩ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ νϭήϔϣ ΢τγ ϦϳήΧ΁ ̵ΎϫΪϣΎϴ̡ ϦϳΪΠϨγ ϝϮΌδϣ ϥ΍ΪϨϤθϧ΍Ω , Ϟλ΍ έΩ
.ΪϧΩή̯ ̶γέήΑ ̶ϳΎϣΩ Ε΍ήϴϴϐΗ ̵ ϪΒϨΟ ί΍ ΍έ έΎ̯ Ϧϳ΍ Ύϣ΍ , ΪϧΩϮΑ

̶ϧΰϳ΍έ έΩ ϩ̬ϳϭ ϪΑ, ̶ϳ΍Ϯϫ ϭ Ώ΁ Ε΍ήϴϴϐΗ Ξϳ΍έ ̵Ύϫ ϞϴϠΤΗ έΩ ήϴϴϐΗ ̮ϳ ̵ ϩΪϨϫΩ ϥΎθϧ Ϧϳ΍
ϪϧΎΨϠ̳ ̵ΎϫίΎ̳ έ΍ΪϘϣ κΨθϣ ΦϳέΎΗ ̮ϳ έΩ Ϫ̯ ΪϨϨϳ΍ ήΑ ΰ̯ήϤΗ ήΑ εϼΗ έΩ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ ̶ϠϠϤϟ΍ ϦϴΑ ̵Ύϫ
ϩΎ̴θϧ΍Ω ̮ϳΰϴϓϮ΋̫ ΪϨϤθϧ΍Ω ΏϮϳΎϫ Ϧϳ ήΗΎ̯..ΖϓΎϳ Ϊϫ΍ϮΧ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ϥ΍ΰϴϣ Ϫ̩ ΎΗ ϮΟ έΩ ϩΪη ϪΘηΎΒϧ΍ ̵΍
ςΒΗήϣ Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ Ε΍ήϴϴϐΗ ϪΑ ΎϤϴϘΘδϣ Ύϫ ΪϣΎϴ̡ ί΍ ̵έΎϴδΑ : ΪϳϮ̳ ̶ϣΪϫέΎΑ Ϧϳ΍ έΩ , α΍ΰ̴Η
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Ϟϣ΍Ϯϋ ςγϮΗ Ϫ̯ ̵΍ ϪϧΎΨϠ̳ ̵ΎϫίΎ̳ ή̴ϳΩ ϭ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ϥ΍ΰϴϣ ϪΑ ϩέΎϴγ ΖϴγΎδΣ ί΍ ύέΎϓ,ΪϨΘδϫ
ϭέΎΑ ϥ΍ϮϨϋ ϪΑ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ϭ Ύϫ αϮϧΎϴϗ΍ ϥΪη ̵Ϊϴγ΍ ϥϮ̩ ̶Η΍ήΛ΍ ΰΟ ϪΑ ,ΪϧϮη ̶ϣ ΪϴϟϮΗ ̶ϧΎδϧ΍
.Ϊϧέ΍Ϊϧ ̶̴ΘδΑ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ΖψϠϏ ϥ΍ΰϴϣ ϪΑ ΍ήϴΛΎΗ ϥ΁ ".ϥΎϫΎϴ̳ ̵ ϩΪϨϨ̯

΍έ Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ί΍ ̶ηΎϧ ̭ΎϧήτΧ Ε΍ήΛ΍ ̵ ϩέΎΑέΩ Ύϫ ΪϳΩήΗ ήΘθϴΑ ϦϴϨ̪Ϥϫ εέ΍ΰ̳ Ϧϳ΍
Φϳ ϥΪη ΏϭΫ ̶̴ϧϮ̴̩ϭ ϥΎϣί ̵ ϩέΎΑέΩ ϥϮ̳ΎϧϮ̳ ̶οΎϳέ ̵Ύϫ ϝΪϣ Ϫ̯ ϥ΁ ΩϮΟϭΎΑ :ΪϫΩ ̶ϣ ζϫΎ̯
ϪΟέΩ Ϫγ ΎΒϳήϘΗ Ϫ̯ Ϊϧέ΍Ω ήψϧ ϕΎϔΗ΍ ϪΘΘ̰ϧ Ϧϳ΍ ήγ ήΑ Ύϫ ϥ΁ ̵ ϪϤϫ Ύϣ΍ ,Ϊϧέ΍Ω ήψϧ ϑϼΘΧ΍ ΐτϗ ̵Ύϫ
.ΪϧϮη ΏϭΫ ̶Ϡ̯ ϪΑ ϦϴΒτϗ ̵Ύϫ Φϳ Ϫ̯ ΩϮθϴϣ ΐΒγ Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ αϮϴδϠγ

̶ϟϮσ: ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϪϓΎο΍ ϩέΎΑ Ϧϳ΍έΩ ϪΘη΍Ω ̵έΎ̰Ϥϫ ε΍ΰ̳ Ϧϳ΍ ̵ ϪϴϬΗ έΩ Ϫ̯ ̶ϧ΍Ω ΩΎμΘϗ΍ , Ϯϳ ̵ή̳
ϥ΍ϮΗ ̶Ϥϧ 2090 ϝΎγ ΎΗ.ΩϮΑ Ϣϴϫ΍ϮΧ Φϳ ϥϭΪΑ ϼϣΎ̯ ̶ϳΎϫ αϮϧΎϴϗ΍ ΪϫΎη ϥήϗ ϦϴϤϫ έΩ Ϫ̯ Ϊϴθ̯ Ϊϫ΍ϮΨϧ
΍Ϯϫ ϭ Ώ΁ ϭ Ζδϴϧ ϪΘΧΎγ Ύϣ ί΍ ̵έΎ̯ ή̴ϳΩ Ύότϗ ϥΎϣί ϥ΁ ΎΗ Ύϣ΍ ΩϮϤϧ Ϧϴόϣ ΍έ ϥΎϣί Ϧϳ΍ ̶ό τϗ έϮτΑ
.ΩϮϤϧ Ϊϫ΍ϮΧ ήϴϐΗ ΕΪη ϪΑ

Ϧϴϣί ̵ΎϣΩ ϥϮϨ̯ ΎΗ ,ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ̶γέήΑ ΍έ ̶ϳ΍Ϯϫ ϭ Ώ΁ Ε΍ήϴϐΗ Ϫ̯ ϞϠϣ ϥΎϣίΎγ ̶ΘΌϴϫ εέ΍ΰ̳ ϪΑ
ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ̵ ϪΠϴΘϧΩ (ΪλέΩ 90 ί΍ ̶Α) ΩΎϳί ̶ϠϴΧ ϝΎϤΘΣ΍ ϪΑ Ϧϳ΍ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ ϩΩή̯ ήϴϐΗ αϮϴδϠγ 7. ΩϭΪΣ
390 ί΍ ΎΒϳήϘΗ Ϣϴϧ΍ϮΗ ̶ϣ Ύϣ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ ̵ΰϴ̪ϧ΁ ί΍ ̶Ϥϴϧ Ϧϳ΍ .Ζγ΍ ϩΩϮΑ ϮΟ ̵΍ ϪϧΎΨϠ̳ ̵ΎϫίΎ̳ ΖψϠϏ
Ύϣ ̵ ϩέΎϴγ Ϫ̯ Ζδϴϧ΍ΰϴϣ ϦϳήΗϻΎΑ Ϫ̯²ϢϴηΎΑ ϪΘη΍Ω έΎψΘϧ΍ ϮΟ έΩ ΩϮΟϮϣ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ϡ΍ ̶̡.̶̡
.Ζγ΍ ϩΪϳΩ ΩϮΧ ϪΑ ϪΘηά̳ ϝΎγ 000ϭ800 έΩ

.Ζγ΍ ̶Ϡλ΍ ϞϣΎϋ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯

̵΍ήΑ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ΐϟΎϏ ζϘϧ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ Ϧϳ΍ ϪΑΎθϣ ΕΎϘϴϘΤΗ ϭ ϖϴϘΤΗ Ϧϳ΍ ΞϳΎΘϧ ί΍ ̶̰ϳ
Ϫ̯ Ϧϴϣί ζϳΎϣή̳ έΩ ̵΍ ϪϧΎΨϠ̳ ̵ΎϫίΎ̳ ί΍ ̶όϴγϭ ϒϴσ Ϫ̩ή̳΍.Ζγ΍ ϩΪη ΢ο΍ϭ ϼϣΎ̯ ϥ΍ΪϨϤθϧ΍Ω
έΩ ΍έ ΍Ϯϫϭ Ώ΁ Ζϴόοϭ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ Ϧϳ΍ , Ϊϧέ΍Ω ΖϟΎΧΩ Ζγ΍ ϩΪη ΩΎΠϳ΍ ϥΎδϧ΍ ςγϮΗ
̵ ϪϠϗ Ϣϴϧ΍ϮΘϳ ϡ,ϢϴϫΩ ζϫΎ̯ ΍έ ϩΎϴγ ϦΑή̯ Ύϳ ϥΎΘϣ ΪϴϟϮΗ ή̳΍ "ΪϳϮ̳ ̶ϣ ϦϤϴϠγ .ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ Ϧϴόϣ ΕΪϣ ί΍έΩ
Ϧϳ΍ ̵ϭέ ήΑ ϥΎδϧ΍ Ωέ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ ϩΪη ϪΘηΎΒϧ΍ ϦΑή̯ Ϧϳ΍ Ύϣ΍ .ϢϴϫΩ ζϫΎ̯ ΍έ ϩΪϨϳ΁ ϥήϗ έΩ Ϧϴϣί ̶ϳΎϣΩ
.ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ κΨθϣ ΕΪϣ ί΍έΩ έΩ ΍έ ϩέΎϴγ

ϮΟ ί΍ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ΎΗ Ϊθ̯ ̶ϣ ϝϮσ ϝΎγ ϥ΍έ΍ΰϫ ̶ϧΎδϧ΍ ΖϟΎΧΩ ϥϭΪΑ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ ϞϴϟΩ ϥ΁ ϪΑ Ϧϳ΍
Ω΍Ω ϡΎΠϧ΍ Ϧϴϣί ϥΪη ήΗ ϡή̳ ί΍ ̵ή̴θϴ̡ ̵΍ήΑ ϥ΍ϮΗ ̶ϣ Ϫ̯ ̶ϣ΍Ϊϗ΍ ϦϳήΘϤϤϬϣ Ϧϳ΍ ήΑΎϨΑ .ΩϮη ϩΩϭΩί
̵΍ήΑ :ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϥΎθϧ ήχΎΧ ϦϣϮϟϮγ .Ζγ΍ ̶ϧϮϨ̯ ΢τγ ϦϴϤϫ έΩ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ϥ΍ΰϴϣ ϥΩή̯ ΖΑΎΛ
ΖϴΒΜΗ ί΍ ̶Ττγ ήϫ ϪΑ ϥΪϴγέ ϭ .ΩϮη ϪΘϓή̳ ζϴ̡ έΩ ϩ΍έ ϡ΍Ϊ̯ Ϫ̯ Ζδϴϧ ϢϬϣ, ϑΪϫ Ϧϳ΍ ϪΑ ϥΪϴγέ
ϦΑή̯ ί΍ ϦΗ Ύ̴ϴ̳ 1,000 Ύϳϭ ϡ΍. ̶̡.̶̡ 450 Ύϳ ΪηΎΑ Ύϣή̳ ί΍ αϮϴδϠγ ϪΟέΩ ϭΩ ϩ΍ϮΧ -ΎϫίΎ̳ ϥ΍ΰϴϣ
ϥΎϳΎ̡ ΎΗ ΎϫίΎ̳ Ϧϳ΍ ΍ΪϴϟϮΗ ί΍ ΪλέΩ 80 ζϫΎ̯ ϪΑ Ϟϗ΍ ΪΣ²̶ϧΎδϧ΍ ̵Ύϫ ΖϴϟΎόϓ ςγϮΗ ϮΟ ϪΑ ϩΪη Ωέ΍ϭ
Ϫ̯ ΪϫΩ ̶ϣ ΢ϴοϮΗ ϩέΎΑ Ϧϳ΍ έΩ ϥ ΎϤϴϠγ .Ωέ΍Ω ΕΪϣ ί΍έΩ έΩ 0 ΢τγ ϪΑ ϥΪϴγέ ΖϳΎϬϧ έΩϭ,ϥήϗ Ϧϳ΍
ϪΑ ΍έ ωϮοϮϣ Ϫ̰Ϩϳ΍ Ύϳϭ Ω΍Ω ζϫΎ̯ ΍έ έ΍ΪϘϣ Ϧϳ΍ ί΍ ΪλέΩ 1 ϪϧϻΎγ ήοΎΣ ϥήϗ ϥΎϳΎ̡ ΎΗ ϥ΍ϮΗ ̶ϣ "
ΪλέΩ 4 ϪϧϻΎγ Ϫ̯ ϢϳϮη έϮΒΠϣ β̢γ ϭ Ωϭέ ήΗϻΎΑ ϥΎϨ̪Ϥϫ ϦΑή̯ ίΎ̳ Ε΍ΪϴϟϮΗ ΢τγ ΎΗ ϢϴϨ̯ Ύϫέ ϝΎΣ
.ϢϴϫΩ ζϫΎ̯ ΍έ έ΍ΪϘϣ Ϧϳ΍ ί΍

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ϪϨϳΰϫ ΪλέΩ 1.5 ΎΗ 0.5 αϮϴδϠγ ϪΟέΩ ϭΩ ΎΒϳήϘΗ ̵ϭέ ΎϣΩ ΖϴΒΜΗ ϪϨϳΰϫ Ϫ̯ Ϊϧί ̶ϣ ϦϴϤΨΗ Ϯϳ
̵Ύϫ ϪϨϳΰϫ ̵ ϪϳΎγ έΩ Ϧϳ΍ Ϫ̯ΪηΎΑ ϪΘη΍Ω ήΑ έΩ΍έ 2050 ϝΎγ ΎΗ ϩΪΤΘϣ ΕϻΎϳ΍ ̶ϠΧ΍Ω κϟΎΧΎϧ Ε΍ΪϴϟϮΗ
Ύϳ ΪϨϨ̯ ̶ϣ έΎ̯ ̶ϟΎϏΫ ΖΧϮγ ΎΑ Ϫ̯ ̶ϳΎϫ ϪϧΎΧέΎ̯ ϥΩϮϤϧ Ϧϳΰ̴ϳΎΟ ,ϝΎΜϣ ϥ΍ϮϨϋ ϪΑ, ̵ ϪΠϴΘϧ έΩ ϩΩέ΍ϭ
ϦϴϨ̩.Ζγ΍ ϦΑή̯ ̵ ϩΪϧί΍Ϊϧ΍ ϡ΍Ω ϪΑ ̵έϭΎϨϓ ΎΑ Ύϫ ϢΘδϴγ Ϧϳ΍ ϥΩϮϤϧ ίϭήΑ Ύϳ ήϳά̡ ΪϳΪΠΗ ̵̫ήϧ΍ ϊΑΎϨϣ
ϪΑ 2051 ϝΎγ έΩΎϣ ̶όϴΒσ Ϊηέ Ϊϧϭέ ̶σ ΎΑ.Ωέ΍Ϊϧ ϩΪΤΘϣ ΕϻΎϳ΍ ΩΎμΘϗ΍ ήΑ ̶ϧ΍ΪϨ̩ ήϴΛΎΗ ̵΍ ϪϨϳΰϫ
̵ϼΑ ̮ϳ Ϧϳ΍".ϢϴγήΑ ϥ΁ ϪΑ ΖδϳΎΑ ̶ϣ 2050 ϝΎγ έΩ Ϫ̯ Ϣϴγέ ̶ϣ ̶̡ .̵Ω.̶Ο ί΍ ̶Ττγ ϥΎϤϫ
ΕΎϣ΍ΪϗΎϨϳ΍ ΎΑ" Ϫ̰Ϩϳ΍ Ύϳ ΰΒγ ̵Ύϫ Ϟϐη Ϧϳ΍ ̵ ϪϤϫ ̵ ϩέΎΑέΩ Ύϫ ̶ϳϮ̳ Ϫϓ΍ΰ̳ .Ϊϳ΁ ̶Ϥϧ ΏΎδΣ ϪΑ ̶όϴΒσ
.ΪϨΘδϴϧ ΖγέΩ ̮ϳ ̨ϴϫ "ΩϮη ̶ϣ ΩϮΑΎϧ ϥΎϣΩΎμΘϗ΍

ΖϳήϳΪϣ ΎΑ ϩ΍ήϤϫ ̵Ωή̰ϳϭέ ̶ϳ΍Ϯϫ ϭ Ώ΁ Ε΍ήϴΛΎΗ ΎΑ ϪτΑ΍έ έΩ ̭έϮϳϮϴϧ ϥϮ̩ ̶ϳΎϫήϬη ϥϮϨ̯ ΎΗ
ϡή̳ ςϳ΍ήη ΎΑ ϥϮϨ̯΍ Ϣϫ ί΍ Ϫ̯ ̶ϳΎϤϧέϭΩ ̵΍ήΑ ΍έ ΩϮΧ Ϫ̯ ΖγΎϨόϣ ϥ΍ΪΑ Ϧϳ΍, Ϊϧ΍ ϪΘϓή̳ ζϴ̡ έΩ ϥ΍ήΤΑ
̭έϮϳϮϴϧ ήϬη ̶ϳ΍Ϯϫϭ Ώ΁ Ε΍ήϴϐΗ ϞϨ̡ .Ζγ΍ ̶ϨϴΑ ζϴ̡ ϞΑΎϗ Ωϭέ ̶ϣ έΎψΘϧ΍ ΩέϮϣ Ϧϴϣί ̶ΠϳέΪΗ ϥΪη
ϩΩϮϤϧ Ϧϴόϣ ΍έ ήϬη ϥΎϨ̯Ύγ ̵΍ήΑ εήϳά̡ ϞΑΎϗ ̮δϳέ ΢τγ ϥ΁ ϪΑΎθϣ ϭ ̶ϧΎϤΘΧΎγ ̵Ύϫ Ϊ̯ ϞϴϠΤΗ ΎΑ
Ώ΁ ί΍ ̶ηΎϧ Ε΍ήτΧ ί΍ ΢τγ ϦϴϤϫ ϪΑ ϪΟϮΗ Ϫ̯ Ϫ̯ Ϊϧ΍ ϩΩ΍Ω έ΍ήϗ ΖϳϮϟϭ΍ έΩ ΍έ ̶ϳΎϫ ϩ̫ϭή̡ ̵΍ήΟ΍ ϭ
̵Ύϫ ΝϮϣ ΪϣΎδΑ ζϳ΍ΰϓ΍ ϭ ΎϳέΩ ΢τγ ϻΎΑ ϞϴΒϗ ί΍ , Ϊϧέ΍ά̳ ̶ϣ ήϴΛΎΗ ήϬη ήΑ ΎϤϴϘΘδϣ Ϫ̯ ΍Ϯϫϭ
ΕΪϣ ΪϨϠΑ ̵Ύϫ ̵ΰϳέ ϪϣΎϧήΑ ήΘϓΩ ̶ϳ΍ήΟ΍ ήϳΪϣ , Ϊϳήϓ ϡ΍Ω΁..Ϊϧέ΍Ω ΩϮΧ ̵ ϪϣΎϧήΑ έΩ ΍έ,̶ϳΎϣή̳
έΩ ΍έ ήϬη ̵΍Ϯϫϭ Ώ΁ ϥ΍ϮΗ ̶Ϥϧ ϞϤϋ έΩ : ΪϳϮ̳ ̶ϣ ϩέΎΑ Ϧϳ΍ έΩ ήϬη ϥ΍ήΤΑ ήΑ΍ήΑ έΩ ΖϣϭΎϘϣϭ
Ε΍ήϴϐΗ ΎΑ, Ζγ΍ έ΍ά̳ ήϴΛΎΗ Ύϫ ϥ΁ ̵΍ήΟ΍ ίϭήϣ΍ Ϫ̯ ̶ΗΎϣ΍Ϊϗ΍ ̵Ύϳ΍ΰϣ Ύϣ΍ ,Ωή̯ ΖϴΒΜΗ ̶λΎΧ ςϳ΍ήη
.Ω΍Ω ΪϨϫ΍ϮΧ ϥΎθϧ ΍έ ΩϮΧ ήΘθϴΑ ̶ϳ΍Ϯϫϭ Ώ΁

Ε΍ΪϴϟϮΗ ζϫΎ̯ ̶ϧΎϣί ΏϮ̩έΎ̩ Ϫ̯ Ζϴόϗ΍ϭ Ϧϳ΍ ϦΘϓή̳ ήψϧ έΩ ΎΑ Ϫ̯ ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϥΎθϧ ήσΎΧ Ϯϳ
̵ ϩΪϳ΍ Ύϳ΁ Ϫ̯ ϢϴϨϴΒΑ ϭ ϢϴϧΎϤΑ ήψΘϨϣ ΪϳΎΑ ΎϬϨΗ,Ωέ΍Ω ̵ήΘϤ̯ ΖϴϤϫ΍ ϥ΁ ΪϴϟϮΗ ΩϮΒϧ΍ ϢΠΣ ί΍ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯
Ϧηϭέ .Ϫϧ Ύϳ Ζη΍Ω Ϊϫ΍ϮΧ ̵ΩΎμΘϗ΍ είέ΍ " ̶Ϩϴθϧ ΐϘϋ β̢γ ϭ Ϧϴόϣ ϑΪϫ ̮ϳ ϦΘϓέ ί΍ ήΗ΍ήϓ "
΍ήϳί Ωέ΍Ϊϧ Ζδϳί ςϴΤϣ ̵΍ήΑ ̵΍ ϩΪϳΎϓ ̨ϴϫ ϥΩή̰ϧ ̵έΎ̯ ϭ ϦΘη΍ά̳ ΖγΩ ̵ϭέ ΖγΩ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍
ϭ ϢϴγΎϨη ̶ϣ Ϫ̯ ΪϨΘδϫ ̶ϳΎϫ ϥΎ̰ϣ ̵Ύϫ ̶̳̬ϳϭ ϥΩ΍Ω ήϴϐΗ ϝΎΣ έΩ ϥϮϨ̯΍ Ϣϫ ΍Ϯϫ Ώ΁ Ε΍ήϴϐΗ
ςϴΤϣ ϭ ̵ήθΑ ̶ΘΧΎγ ήϳί ̵Ύϫ ϪΒϨΟ ̵ ϪϤϫ ήΑ ΎΒϳήϘΗ Ϊϧ΍ϮΗ ̶ϣ Ϧϴϣί ϥΪη ϡή̳ .Ϣϳέ΍Ω ϥΎθΘγϭΩ
. Ωέ΍ά̴Α ήϴΛΎΗ , ϥΎϤϋέ΍ΰϣ ϭ Ύϫ Ϟ̴ϨΟ ΎΗ ϪΘϓή̳ Ύϫ ϩΩΎΟϭ Ύϫ ήϬη ί΍ ,Ύϣ ̶όϴΒσ Ζδϳί

ϭήΘϧ΁ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ ϩΪη ̵ΪϳΪΟήμϋ Ωέ΍ϭ Ύϣ ̵ ϩέΎϴγ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ ϥ΁ ί΍ ̶̯ΎΣ εέ΍ΰ̳ Ϧϳ΍ ΩϮΟϭ Ϧϳ΍ ΎΑ
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cAnthropocene ϦϴγϮ̡
Ϧϳ΍ ϮϬϴϫ . (c!+c-.c$c%c&c c c'&cc(c)ccc*+, &) $

c !c " #
Ωέ΍ϭ Ύϣ ̵ ϩέΎϴγ ϦϣΰϤϳέΎϤϴΑ .ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϪδϳΎϘϣ Ζγ΍ ϩΩή̯ ϪόΟ΍ήϣ ̮ηΰ̡ ϪΑ Ϫ̯ ̵έΎϤϴΑ ΎΑ ΍έ Ζϴόοϭ
ϪΑ ϪόΟ΍ήϣ ̵ ϪΑήΠΗ Ύϣί΍ ̵έΎϴδΑ.Ζγ΍ ̶ϧΎδϧ΍ ̵Ύϫ ΖϴϟΎόϓ ήΛ΍ έΩ ϮΟ ϪΑ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ϥΪη
̶̳Ϊϧί ΐγΎϨϣ ̵Ύϫ ϩϮϴη ΏΎΨΘϧ΍ ΎΑ ̶Θϣϼγ ΩϮΒϬΑ ̶̴ϧϮ̴̩ ̵ ϩέΎΑέΩ ̶ϳΎϫ ϪϴλϮΗ ΖϓΎϳέΩ ϭ ̮ηΰ̡
.ϢϴηΎΑ ϪΘη΍Ω ϞϳΎϤΗ ήϴϐΗ ϪΑ ΪΣ Ϫ̩ ΎΗ Ϫ̳ Ωέ΍Ω Ύϣ ΩϮΧ ϪΑ ̶̴ΘδΑ Ϧϳ΍ Ϫ̯ Ϣϴϧ΍Ω ̶ϣ ϭ Ϣϳέ΍Ω΍έ

ϒϴϴϗϮΗ :Ωέ΍Ω ΩϮΟϭ Ύϣ ̵ϭέ ζϴ̡ ̶ϧϮ̳ΎϧϮ̳ ̵Ύϫ ϪϨϳΰ̳ :ΪϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϥΎθϧ ήσΎΧ ϩέΎΑ Ϧϳ΍ έΩ ϥΎϤϴϠγ
Ϣϴϧ΍ϮΗ ̶ϣ έΪϗ Ϫ̩.Ϧϳΰ̴ϳΎΟ ̵̫ήϧ΍ ϊΑΎϨϣ ϦΘϓΎϳ ,Anthropocene ΍Ϯϫϭ Ώ΁ ̶γΪϨϬϣ,ϦΑή̯ Ε΍ΪϴϟϮΗ

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εϭή̡ ΍έ ̵ή̴ϳΩ ̵ Ϫϧ΍Ω Ϫ̯ ϢϴϨ̯ ΏΎΨΘϧ΍ Ϣϴϧ΍ϮΗ ̶ϣ!ΪϴϨ̯ ϩΎ̴ϧ ΕϼϏ ϪΑˮϢϴϫΩ ϖϓϭ ςϳ΍ήη ΎΑ ΍έ ΩϮΧ
.ΩϮη ήΘϬΑ ϥ΁ Ζϴϔϴ̯ Ϫ̯ ϢϴϨ̯ ̶γΪϨϬϣ ̵΍ ϪϧϮ̳ ϪΑ ̶̰ϴΘϧ̫ υΎΤϟ ί΍ ΍έ ϪϠϏ ϥΎϤϫ Ϫ̰Ϩϳ΍ Ύϳ ϢϴϫΩ

Ζδϴϧ εήοΎΣ Ϟδϧ ϭ ϥΎϣ ϩέΎϴγ ̶Ϡόϓ Ζϴόοϭ ̵΍ήΑ Ύϓήλ ϢϴϤμΗ Ϧϳ΍ Ϫ̯ Ζγ΍ Ϧϳ΍ ̶Ϡλ΍ ϪΘ̰ϧ
Ϣϫ Ϫ̯ ΍έ ̶Η΍ήϴΛΎΗ:ΪϳϮ̳ ̶ϣ ϥΎϴϤϠγ . ΩϮΑ Ϊϫ΍ϮΧ έ΍ά̳ ήϴΛΎΗ ΰϴϧ ϥ΁ ϩΪϨϳ΁ ϥΎϨ̯Ύγ ϭ ϩέΎϴγ ΍ήΑ Ϫ̰ϠΑ
̶Ϥϴϧ ΎϬϨΗ ϢϴϨ̯ ̶ϣ ϪΑήΠΗ Ϊϴδ̯΍ ̵Ω ϦΑή̯ ΡϮτγ ϥ΍ΰϴϣ ΖϴΒΜΗ ί΍ ζϴ̡ , ϩΪϨϳ΁ ̵ ϪϫΩ ΪϨ̩ έΩ ϭ ϥϮϨ̯΍
!Ϊϧ΍ ̶ϟΎϤΘΣ΍ Ε΍ήϴΛΎΗ ί΍

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By Douglas Fischer and The Daily Climate

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Extreme weather events caused by climate change, such as heat waves,
flooding, and drought, may have dire impacts on public health.
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Extreme weather induced by climate change has dire public health consequences, as heat
waves threaten the vulnerable, storm runoff overwhelms city sewage systems and hotter
summer days bake more pollution into asthma-inducing smog, scientists say.

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The United States ± to say nothing of the developed world ± is unprepared for such
conditions predicted by myriad climate models and already being seen today, warn climate
researchers and public health officials.

"Climate change as it's projected will impact almost every aspect of public health, both in the
developed world and ± more importantly ± in the developing world," said Michael
McGeehin, director of the Environmental Hazards and Health Effects division at the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention.

"A flood is a major public health disaster," he added. "A flood takes us back to the 1890s as
far as the public health system is concerned."

Last week, as the East Coast stewed its way through the first heat wave of the summer,
researchers at Stanford University published a study suggesting exceptionally long heat
waves and extreme temperatures could be commonplace in the United States within 30 years
± sooner than expected.

"I did not expect to see anything this large within the next three decades," Noah Diffenbaugh,
assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford and lead author of the
study, said in a statement. "It was definitely a surprise."

The report was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Using some of the highest-resolution computer models to date, Diffenbaugh and Moetasim
Ashfaq, a former Stanford postdoctoral researcher now at Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
were able to simulate daily temperatures across small sections of the country.

They found an intense heat wave ± equal to the longest on record from 1951 to 1999 ± could
hit western and central United States as many as five times between 2020 and 2029.

The study buttresses other recent findings concluding that the heat scorching the eastern
United States last week ± or that killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 ± is likely to be
the new norm.

"The current state of heatwaves could be the harbinger of things to come," said David
Easterling, a climatologist with the National Climatic Data Center.And it's not just heat.

Easterling and McGeehin spoke at a briefing last week arranged by cthe Union of Concerned
Scientists. Climate disruption, they said, is also bringing more floods and drought.

"A flood is a major public health disaster," McGeehin said. "A flood takes us back to the
1890s as far as the public health system is concerned."

There is, however, a silver lining: Tackling global warming is also a public health
opportunity, said Jonathan Patz, director of global environmental health at the University of
Wisconsin, Madison, who also participated in the UCS briefing.

Avoiding the worst of the heat waves, sewage overflows and droughts has obvious benefit,
Patz said. But many climate mitigation efforts also bring health benefits: Using less fuel
improves air quality; walking or biking to work reduces obesity.

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Patz is in the process of quantifying those savings, but preliminary results suggest that if
Americans could reduce their car travel by 20 percent ± essentially not driving one day a
week ± the largest cities across the Midwest could save hundreds of lives, avoid hundreds of
thousands of hospital admissions and trim several billion dollars from health care spending,
he said.

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