Investment Research

6 August 2010

EMEA Weekly
Introducing the EMEA Inflationary Pressure Index

Market movers ahead: GDP and inflation numbers

Next week will be busy in terms of economic releases. On Monday we will get industrial
Inflationary pressure remains limited
production in Turkey, which should show that industrial production growth has dropped
10 10
to 9.6% y/y in June from 15.6% y/y in May. This will be yet another sign that Turkish % y/y % y/y
8 8
economic growth is decelerating. On Friday we will get a bunch of GDP numbers for Q2. 6 6
Hungary
In general we expect the Q2 GDP numbers in EMEA to show gradual improvement. In 4 Romania 4

2 Poland 2
Czech Republic we expect Q2 GDP growth of 1.4% y/y compared to 1.2% y/y in Q1. We Czech
0 Republic 0
are, however, more concerned about a possible setback in growth in Q3. Inflation
-2 -2
06 07 08 09 10 11
There is also a lot of inflation numbers due next week in EMEA. Overall, we expect the
numbers to show that inflationary pressure remains limited. Our new EMEA Inflationary Source: Reuters Ecowin
Pressure Index (see more on page 3 and 4) shows that EMEA inflation is decelerating.
Finally, Hungarian Minutes on Wednesday could prove interesting.
The recovery continues in CEE...
10.0 10.0
% y/y
FX Outlook: Stronger EUR/USD supports CEE currencies 7.5
% y/y
7.5
5.0 5.0
Czech
The recent move up in EUR/USD is especially supportive for the euro-sensitive EMEA 2.5
Republic
2.5
0.0 Hungary 0.0
currencies CZK, PLN and HUF, while it is negative for the dollar-sensitive currencies -2.5 Romania -2.5
-5.0 Gross Domestic Product -5.0
TRY and ZAR. As the euro might continue to outperform the dollar we are looking for
-7.5 -7.5
CZK, PLN and HUF to outperform TRY and ZAR in the short term. We are therefore -10.0 -10.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
quite comfortable with the Scorecard continuing to recommend to be long in CZK/ZAR.
Source: Reuters Ecowin

Fixed Income Outlook: Decelerating inflation

The calendar is fully booked with inflation numbers next week. It will be especially ...and in the Baltics
interesting to watch the outcome of Polish inflation on Friday. Although we expect Polish 15
% y/y % y/y
15
10 10
inflation to ease slightly to 2.1% y/y in July from 2.3% y/y in June, our new EMEA
5 5
Inflationary Pressure Index (see more on page 3 and 4) shows that Polish inflation is still 0 Estonia 0

accelerating. -5 -5
Latvia
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 -20
Scorecard-based trade of the week Buy CZK/ZAR 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

For a fourth week in a row the Scorecard-based trade of the week is CZK/ZAR with the Source: Reuters Ecowin

Czech koruna still the highest scoring currency on our EMEA FX Scorecard and the
South African rand the lowest. A further move up in EUR/USD will support this trade
which has performed rather well for most of this week.

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EMEA Weekly

Calendar

EMEA Data and Events in Week32

Monday, August 9, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous
RUB - Disposable income y/y Jul 1.4%
RUB - Real wages y/y Jul 6.3% 6.2% 5.5%
LVL - Unemployment % Jul 15.6%
EEK 7:00 Trade balance B. Jun -1.2
CZK 9:00 CPI y/y Jul 1.9% 1.9% 1.2%
CZK 9:00 Unemployment rate % Jul 8.7% 8.5%
TRY 9:00 Industrial production y/y Jun 9.6% 10.5% 15.6%
LTL 10:00 CPI y/y Jul 1.9% 1.0%
LTL 10:00 Trade Balance B. LTL Jun -0.21
LVL 12:00 Trade balance M. Jun -75.5
LVL 12:00 Gross domestic Product y/y 2nd quarter -3.7% -6.0%
LVL 12:00 CPI y/y Jul -0.9% -1.4%

Tuesday, August 10, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

Wednesday, August 11, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

UAH - GDP y/y 2nd quarter 5.9% 4.8%
RUB - Gross Domestic Product y/y 2nd quarter 5.7% 2.9%
EEK 7:00 Gross domestic product y/y 2nd quarter 0.8% -2.0%
TRY 9:00 Current account B. USD Jun -3.5 -23.9
HUF 9:00 CPI y/y Jul 4.1% 5.3%
CZK 10:00 Current account m. CZK Jun -18.0 -23.9
RON 11:00 CPI y/y Jul 9.1% 4.4%
HUF 14:00 Hungarian central bank releases Minutes from monetary-policy meeting
PLN 14:00 Current account Euro mil Jun -268
PLN 14:00 Trade balance EUR mil Jun -455

Thursday, August 12, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

Friday, August 13, 2010 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

RUB - Industrial production y/y Jul 8.4% 8.0% 9.7%
CZK 9:00 Gross domestic product y/y 2nd quarter 1.4% 2.3% 1.2%
CZK 9:00 CNB Meeting Minutes
CZK 9:00 CNB Q3 Inflation Report
HUF 9:00 GDP y/y 2nd quarter 0.1%
HUF 9:00 Industrial production, final y/y Jun 12.6% 12.6%
RON 11:00 GDP y/y 2nd quarter -2.6%
PLN 14:00 CPI y/y Jul 2.1% 2.3%

The editors do not guarantee the accurateness of figures, hours or dates stated above
Note that all releases are CET.

Source: Danske Markets

2| 6 August 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Fixed income market update

Review: Unchanged in Turkey the rest of the year
Data on Turkish inflation were released this week. The numbers surprised us on the EMEA swap rate performance
downside as they showed that Turkish inflation dropped to 7.6% y/y in July from 8.4% 2Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp
y/y in June. We had only expected Turkish inflation to ease to 8.3% y/y. The outcome is a CZK 1.64 1
clear indication that inflation has stopped accelerating. We now forecast Turkish inflation HUF 6.16 -7
for 2010 to average around 8-8.5% y/y (a downwards revision compared to our previous PLN 4.69 8
forecast of 9.0% y/y) and we expect inflation to finish the year around 7.5% y/y. On the RUB 5.41 -4
TRY 7.58 11
back of this inflation outlook we now expect the Turkish central bank (TCMB) to keep its
ZAR 6.53 2
key policy rate unchanged at 6.50% for the rest of the year. See our Flash Comment.
5Y IRS Mid level 1W chg - bp
Polish central bank governor Marek Belka commented this week on the planned VAT CZK 2.23 0
hike of 1pp in the beginning of next year. Belka said that he does not expect the VAT HUF 6.52 -6
PLN 5.17 2
hike to have a significant effect on Polish inflation. We share his opinion. Belka further
RUB 6.76 6
added that the strength of the zloty and the stable labour-market situation have convinced TRY 8.08 12
him to take a more dovish stance on monetary policy. There is now an increased chance ZAR 7.31 2
that the Polish central bank (NBP) will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year (at the Data updated: 06/08 - CET: 07:44
present time we forecast a total of 50bp hikes within 2010). Source: Reuters Ecowin

Preview: Introducing the EMEA Inflationary Pressure Index

Inflation data are important to monitor as it is a key determinant of the direction of the
monetary policy. If inflation is too high the central bank will be expected to tighten
monetary policy and if it is too low the central bank will have room to ease monetary
policy. Most central banks in the EMEA region have implemented an inflation target
strategy to help determine the sufficient level of inflation. However, most central banks
are viewed to be forward looking when conducting monetary policy and will therefore
react before inflation becomes too high or too low. It is therefore useful to have a look at
the direction of inflation opposed to the current level of inflation to get an idea of whether
inflation is accelerating or decelerating, i.e. whether inflationary pressure is increasing or
decreasing. To do this we have developed the EMEA Inflationary Pressure Index. The
index is composed of various inflationary indicators including CPI, PPI, wages, oil prices
etc.. The index then measures the momentum in these indicators on a scale of +5 to -5 and
thus gives an indication of whether inflation is accelerating or decelerating, where a
positive score in the index corresponds to rising inflationary pressure and a negative score
to declining inflationary pressure.

We present the index on the following page for the countries of the EMEA region.
Overall, the index shows that inflation is decelerating in EMEA. There are, however,
noticeable differences within the region. The index returns a positive score for Poland,
which indicates that inflation is accelerating in Poland. In fact, according to the index
inflationary pressure is currently the highest in Poland. Hence, inflation could become an
issue for the Polish central bank (NBP). At the other end of the scale, the index returns
the most negative score for Turkey. Turkey is actually scoring -2.5, which indicates that
inflation is sharply decelerating in Turkey. This is an additional argument for TCMB not
to turn more hawkish in the near future.

Inflation will be on the top of the agenda for next week as we receive a bunch of inflation
numbers for the countries in the EMEA region. It will be interesting to evaluate the
outcome in the context of the EMEA Inflationary Pressure Index. We expect Polish
inflation to ease slightly to 2.1% y/y from 2.3% y/y. Czech inflation will pick up a bit to
1.9% y/y from 1.2% y/y. Hungarian inflation will drop significantly to 4.1% y/y from
5.3% y/y on a strong base effect from last year’s VAT hike. Finally, Romanian inflation
will surge to 9.1% y/y from 4.4% y/y due to the recent VAT hike of 5pp.

3| 6 August 2010
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EMEA Weekly

EMEA Inflationary Pressure Index

Poland Hungary EMEA Inflationary Pressure Index
5 Index (+5 to -5) 5 5 Index (+5 to -5) 5
 The EMEA Inflationary Pressure
3 3 3 3
Index measures the degree of
1 1 1 1

-1 -1 -1 -1
inflationary pressure in the
-3 -3 -3 -3
countries of the EMEA region.
-5 -5 -5 -5  The composition of the index
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
08 09 10 08 09 10 includes various inflationary
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations indicators such as consumer
prices, producer prices, wages, oil
prices, currency movements and
Czech Republic Turkey expectations about future inflation.
5 Index (+5 to -5) 5 5 Index (+5 to -5) 5
 The index is computed on a scale
3 3 3 3
from +5 to -5 measuring the
1 1 1 1
momentum in the various
-1 -1 -1 -1
inflationary indicators in standard
-3 -3 -3 -3

-5 -5 -5 -5
deviations.
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
08 09 10 08 09 10  A positive score in the index
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations indicates that inflation is
accelerating. A negative score in
the index indicates that inflation is
South Africa Romania decelerating.
5 Index (+5 to -5) 5 5 Index (+5 to -5) 5

3 3 3 3

1 1 1 1

-1 -1 -1 -1

-3 -3 -3 -3

-5 -5 -5 -5
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
08 09 10 08 09 10

Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations

Israel EMEA
5 Index (+5 to -5) 5 5 Index (+5 to -5) 5

3 3 3 3

1 1 1 1

-1 -1 -1 -1

-3 -3 -3 -3

-5 -5 -5 -5
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
08 09 10 08 09 10

Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations

4| 6 August 2010
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EMEA Weekly

FX Market update
FX performance – one week
Review: Don’t be fooled by the forint
TRY vs. EUR
The EMEA currencies performed relatively well this week. The top performer has been 1-week
ZAR vs. EUR change
the Hungarian forint that gained almost 2% on the euro this week. The forint was
RON vs. EUR
supported by stronger-than-expected Hungarian economic releases this week (data on the CZK vs. EUR
Hungarian production sector were better than expected). Although the Hungarian PLN vs. EUR
numbers came out on the positive side this week, we maintain our relatively negative TRY vs. USD
view of the recovery of the Hungarian economy, which we see as weak and fragile. Our ZAR vs. USD
EMEA FX Scorecard does not give much support to the forint either and it has been Basket vs. RUB
negative on the forint for the larger part of 2010. Adding the political risk surrounding EUR/USD
Hungarian public finances we expect the forint to weaken going forward despite this HUF vs. EUR
week’s relatively strong run. -2.0 0.0 2.0
%
Preview: EUR/USD to set the tone Data updated: 06/08 - CET: 07:44

This week has been a relatively calm week on the EMEA markets with limited activity on Source: Reuters Ecowin

the news front. The EMEA currencies have mainly been driven by the move up in
EUR/USD and the improved risk sentiment.

The move up in EUR/USD, which surpassed 1.32 this week, is especially supportive for
the euro-sensitive EMEA currencies CZK, PLN and HUF, while it is negative for the
dollar-sensitive currencies TRY and ZAR. The euro could continue to outperform the
dollar helped by stronger-than-expected European economic releases, rising oil prices and
also notably the recent softer tone on monetary policies by the Fed. Note that this
corresponds well to the fact that our EMEA FX Scorecard currently signals short-term
FX performance – one month
strengthening of CZK and PLN and short-term weakening of TRY and ZAR. We are
therefore quite comfortable with the fact that the Scorecard continues to recommend to be TRY vs. EUR
long in CZK/ZAR. RON vs. EUR 1-month change
ZAR vs. EUR
The signals from our EMEA FX Scorecard are more or less unchanged since last week.
Basket vs. RUB
CZK continues to dominate the top scoring positive on macro, technical and carry.
HUF vs. EUR
EUR/CZK has firmly established itself below 25.00 trading around 24.70 this week. We PLN vs. EUR
still expect it to continue to move stronger both on a short-term and a long-term horizon CZK vs. EUR
from this level. PLN remains in positive territory, but this is only due to a positive TRY vs. USD
technical score. PLN gets no help from macro or carry momentum or the global EUR/USD
environment. We would therefore not expect EUR/PLN to go much stronger than the ZAR vs. USD
current level of around 4.00. -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
%
Data updated: 06/08 - CET: 07:45
Scorecard-based trade of the week: Buy CZK/ZAR
Source: Reuters Ecowin
For a fourth week in a row the Scorecard-based trade of the week is CZK/ZAR with the
Czech koruna still the highest scoring currency on our EMEA FX Scorecard and South
African rand the lowest. A further move up in EUR/USD will support this trade which
has performed rather well for the larger part of this week.

5| 6 August 2010
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EMEA Weekly

EMEA FX Scorecard overview

Score – PLN Score – HUF EMEA FX Scorecard outline
5.0 5.0
 All scores are computed on a
2.5 0.3 2.5
scale from +5 to -5. A score is
0.0 0.0
-0.3 then combined from the different
-2.5 -2.5
sub-scores.
-5.0 -5.0
 Macro: calculates the growth

Technical

Global
Carry

Valuation
Technical

Global
Carry

Valuation

Macro
Macro

Total
Total

momentum in different monthly

macro indicators.

Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations  Technical: calculates the

momentum in different volatility
measures, short- and longer-term
Score – CZK Score – TRY
moving averages and the level of
5.0 5.0 relative strength index.
2.5 0.5 2.5
 Carry: calculates the momentum
0.0 0.0
0.0 in local three-month rates, carry-
-2.5 -2.5
to-risk, spread against EUR or
-5.0 -5.0
USD three-month rates and
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total
spread against peers.

 Global: consists of a global growth

score based on leading global
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations
indicators, a liquidity score based
on the G3 real rates and a
Score – ZAR Score – RON sentiment score based on
5.0 5.0 performance in the global equity
2.5 2.5 market and traditional funding
0.1
0.0 0.0 currencies.
-2.5 -0.8 -2.5  Valuation: calculates whether
-5.0 -5.0 currencies are over/undervalued
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total
Com

compared with the long-term

trend in the real effective
exchange rate (REER). The trend is
Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations adjusted for external imbalances,
i.e. an imbalance-adjusted REER.
The scores are calibrated to
Score – ILS Score – Total reflect the short-term impact of
5.0 5.0 the valuation on the FX.
2.5 2.5
0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0
-2.5 -2.5
-5.0 -5.0
Technical

Technical
Global

Global
Carry

Carry
Valuation

Valuation
Macro

Macro
Total

Total

Danske Markets calculations Danske Markets calculations

6| 6 August 2010
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EMEA Weekly

CIS update
With unemployment falling quickly in Russia, the robust growth in wages is likely to Bank loans and wage growth in Russia
80 17,5
have continued in July. We expect real wage growth of 6.3% y/y, and we would find 70
% y/y %y/y 15,0

figures below 6% disappointing. Thus, low inflation and unemployment together with 60
Real wages >>
12,5
50 10,0
wage growth continue to support consumption. 40 7,5
30 5,0
20 2,5
The growth momentum in Russia, gained mostly through base effect, is bound to fade in 10 0,0
<< Bank lending to private sector
the next couple of months. We expect the July industrial production figures to come out 0 -2,5
-10 -5,0
quite positive at 8.4% y/y growth, but the rest of the year looks rather weak. However, we -20 -7,5
07 08 09 10
view H2 2010 as the worst period in the Russian economic recovery, and expect the credit
growth to boost private consumption in H1 2011. Source: Reuters Ecowin

Unfortunately, slower growth comes together with accelerating inflation. We think that
the current low inflation rate (5.5% y/y in July) is due to the past recession, and the only
chance for CPI to remain low is a double dip recession, which we find unlikely. Thus,
inflation pressures are mounting, and we expect rapidly accelerating inflation in Q4 2010. Wage growth in Ukraine gains pace
40 150
See our Flash Comment. % y/y % y/y
30 125

Ukrainian inflation is getting a boost from domestic utility prices that were hiked due to 20 100

10 75
IMF loan requirements. Other than that, the inflation scenario looks benign for the year << Retail sales
0 << Real wages 50
2010 and average CPI is likely to remain below 12.3% seen in 2009. However, real wages Household credit>>
-10 25
are increasing and money supply as well as producer prices are already building up the -20 0

inflation pressures for 2011. -30 -25

05 06 07 08 09 10

Source: Reuters Ecowin

7| 6 August 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Special: Latvian macro outlook

This week we published an updated outlook on the Latvian economy taking into account
Gradual recovery under way
the latest economic releases for May and June. Below we present a short summary of the
15 15
analysis. See our Macro Monitor Latvia for the full analysis. % y/y % y/y
10 10
5 5
The Latvian economy, which was hurt by the global credit crisis, has moved up in Q1 10
0 0
compared to Q4 09. We have revised our forecasts slightly up, which reflects a gradual -5 -5
-10 Gdp, Latvia -10
improvement in export performance. We now forecast the Latvian economy to contract
-15 -15
3.5% y/y this year and to grow 1.5% y/y next year. -20 -20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
The biggest challenge for Latvia's economy in the medium term remains the weak labour
market. Unemployment might only decline as the result of a more intensive emigration Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets
process and wage growth might remain negative this year and the next few years.

Deflationary pressure eased significantly during Q1 10, but we still expect consumer
Very weak labour market conditions
prices to remain in negative territory and to increase only marginally to close to 0.1% in
22.5 22.5
2011. 20.0
% %
20.0
17.5 17.5
Due to weak domestic demand the outlook for external balances has developed positively. Unemployment, Latvia
15.0 15.0
There is a large surplus on the current account balance and it should stay like that going 12.5 12.5
10.0 10.0
forward. 7.5 7.5
5.0 5.0
03 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Macro forecasts Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

1 Private. 1 1 1
Year Gdp 1 Fixed Inv Export Import
cons Deflation continues
2009 -18.0 -23.9 -37.1 -15.4 -35.4
20.0 20.0
17.5 % y/y % y/y
2010 -3.5 -0.1 -33.7 9.1 9.2 15.0
17.5
15.0
12.5 12.5
2011 1.5 1.0 1.3 13.4 8.9 10.0 10.0
7.5 7.5
2012 3.1 3.0 5.4 8.5 9.2 5.0 5.0
2.5 Inflation, Latvia 2.5
0.0 0.0
1) Average % y/y 2) % of GDP 3) % of total work force 4) Export and import prices, EUR -2.5 -2.5
-5.0 -5.0
Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets 03 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

Macro forecasts

Trade Current Industrial Unemploy 1 1 Weak domestic demand help C/A into
Year 2, 4 2, 4 1 3 Wages Inflation
Balance acc. prod. ment surplus
2009 -6.6 9.6 -15.8 19.7 -3.9 3.6 15 % of GDP % of GDP 15
10 10
Current account, Latvia
2010 -5.7 9.5 13.1 21.0 -5.4 -1.7 5 5
0 0
2011 -4.9 11.3 16.1 21.5 -3.5 0.1 -5 -5
-10 -10
2012 -5.5 10.3 13.1 21.7 0.8 0.8 -15 -15
-20 -20
Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets -25 -25
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

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EMEA Weekly

Currency forecast, EMEA

Aug 6. 2010 EUR USD SEK NOK DKK
Actual 1.32 - 713 598 566
+3m 1.25 - 752 612 595
USD
+6m 1.20 - 767 633 620
+12m 1.27 - 724 598 587
Actual 3.99 3.03 235 198 187
+3m 4.05 3.24 232 189 184
PLN
+6m 4.05 3.38 227 188 184
+12m 4.00 3.15 230 190 186
Actual 280 212 3.36 2.82 2.66
+3m 285 228 3.30 2.68 2.61
HUF
+6m 285 238 3.23 2.67 2.61
+12m 280 220 3.29 2.71 2.66
Actual 24.7 18.8 38.0 31.9 30.2
+3m 24.8 19.8 37.9 30.8 30.0
CZK
+6m 24.4 20.3 37.7 31.1 30.5
+12m 23.6 18.6 39.0 32.2 31.6
Actual 15.6 11.9 60.0 50.4 47.6
+3m 15.7 12.5 60.1 48.9 47.5
EEK
+6m 15.7 13.0 58.8 48.6 47.5
+12m 15.7 12.3 58.8 48.6 47.6
Actual 0.71 0.54 1327 1114 1053
+3m 0.70 0.56 1343 1093 1063
LVL
+6m 0.70 0.58 1314 1086 1063
+12m 0.70 0.55 1314 1086 1064
Actual 3.45 2.62 272 228 216
+3m 3.45 2.76 272 222 216
LTL
+6m 3.45 2.88 267 220 216
+12m 3.45 2.72 267 220 216
Actual 4.25 3.23 221 185 175
+3m 4.50 3.60 209 170 165
RON
+6m 4.50 3.75 204 169 165
+12m 4.55 3.58 202 167 164
Actual 1.96 1.48 480 403 381
+3m 1.96 1.56 481 391 381
BGN
+6m 1.96 1.63 471 389 381
+12m 1.96 1.54 471 389 381
Actual 1.98 1.50 474 398 376
+3m 1.75 1.40 537 437 425
TRY
+6m 1.85 1.54 497 411 402
+12m 2.11 1.66 436 360 353
Actual 39.3 29.9 23.9 20.0 18.9
+3m 41.0 32.8 22.9 18.7 18.1
RUB
+6m 36.6 30.5 25.1 20.8 20.3
+12m 36.2 28.5 25.4 21.0 20.6
Actual 10.4 7.89 90.3 75.8 71.7
+3m 10.6 8.50 88.5 72.0 70.0
UAH
+6m 9.5 7.90 97.0 80.2 78.5
+12m 8.6 6.80 106.5 88.0 86.3
Actual 9.5 7.24 98.5 82.6 78.1
+3m 9.9 7.95 94.6 77.0 74.9
ZAR
+6m 9.9 8.25 92.9 76.8 75.2
+12m 11.2 8.80 82.3 68.0 66.7

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

9| 6 August 2010
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EMEA Weekly

Macro Forecast, EMEA Macro Monitors

Private. Fixed Trade Current Industrial Unem- Infla- Macro Monitor – Hungary, June 25
Year Gdp1 Cons1 Inv 1 Export1 Import1 Balance2, 4 acc.2, 4 prod.1 ploym3 tion1
Macro Monitor – Czech Republic, June 25
2009 -4.1 -0.3 -9.2 -14.2 -15.3 5.0 -1.1 -13.2 9.1 1.1
Macro Monitor – Turkey, July 14
Czech Republic 2010 0.5 0.2 -3.1 12.3 7.7 7.1 1.3 10.7 10.1 1.5
Macro Monitor – Poland, June 25
2011 2.4 0.7 6.4 14.7 11.1 8.1 2.1 9.4 10.7 2.0
Macro Monitor – Estonia, July 21
2009 -14.1 -18.8 34.4 -11.3 -26.7 -4.1 4.6 -26.2 15.5 -0.1
Macro Monitor – Lithuania, July 28
Estonia 2010 0.3 -2.9 -2.6 20.8 15.0 -5.4 1.6 15.4 20.6 2.5

2011 2.0 0.9 5.7 13.5 12.8 -9.1 -1.3 20.5 17.9 3.3 Macro Monitor – Latvia, August 5

2009 -6.3 -7.6 -6.3 -8.9 -15.2 4.3 0.2 -17.8 10.8 4.2

Hungary
Source: Danske Markets
2010 -1.9 -2.0 -2.2 12.1 11.2 5.7 1.8 9.5 13.6 5.2

2011 3.0 2.6 4.1 8.9 7.3 5.6 1.3 9.0 14.7 4.6

2009 -18.0 -23.9 -37.1 -15.4 -35.4 -6.6 9.6 -15.8 19.7 3.6

Latvia 2010 -3.5 -0.1 -33.7 9.1 9.2 -5.7 9.5 13.1 21.0 -1.7

2011 1.5 1.0 1.3 8.5 8.9 -4.9 11.3 16.1 21.5 0.1

2009 -14.8 -16.8 -39.0 -14.0 -29.0 -2.9 3.8 -14.4 15.6 4.5

Lithuania 2010 1.2 -2.8 -17.4 15.6 6.3 -0.8 5.3 6.0 19.0 1.0

2011 3.6 2.0 8.0 13.2 6.0 0.9 8.0 12.3 17.6 1.1

2009 1.7 2.3 -0.5 -10.6 -14.2 -1.0 -1.6 -3.6 11.9 3.5

Poland 2010 3.0 4.7 -10.6 4.4 3.1 -0.6 -1.1 12.6 12.4 2.6

2011 4.0 3.5 8.5 6.9 5.5 0.2 -0.5 10.0 12.4 3.0

2009 -7.9 -7.8 -15.9 -4.2 -29.8 7.4 3.8 -10.9 8.2 11.7

Russia 2010 3.6 4.5 1.0 24.0 19.0 7.5 4.5 5.2 7.9 7.0

2011 4.1 5.9 7.0 13.0 22.0 6.9 3.1 3.6 7.3 9.2

2009 -4.7 -2.0 -18.8 -5.3 -13.2 -4.0 -2.2 -8.9 - 6.3

Turkey 2010 7.9 6.7 17.9 6.6 12.6 -5.3 -4.7 10.5 - 9.0

2011 5.9 5.7 8.6 14.0 11.2 -4.7 -3.4 4.0 - 7.8

1) Average % y/y 2) % of GDP 3) % of total work force 4) Export and import prices

Source: Reuters Ecowin and Danske Markets

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Emerging Markets Contacts

Emerging Markets Research

Lars Christensen +45 45 12 85 30 larch@danskebank.dk
Flemming Jegbjærg Nielsen +45 45 12 85 35 flemm@danskebank.dk
Violeta Klyviene +370 5 2156992 vkly@danskebank.com
Stanislava Pravdova +45 45 12 80 71 spra@danskebank.dk
Jens Nærvig Pedersen +45 45 12 84 98 jenpe@danskebank.dk
Sanna Elina Kurronen +358 10 546 7573 kurr@danskebank.com

Emerging Markets Sales, Danske Markets

Erik Rasmussen +45 45 14 32 47 eras@danskebank.dk

Global Retail SME, FX

Stig Hansen +45 45 14 60 86 sh@danskebank.dk
Flemming Winther +45 45 14 68 24 flw@danskebank.dk

Trading FX, Fixed Income, Danske Markets

Frank Sandbæk Vig +45 45 14 67 96 fsv@danskebank.dk
Thomas Manthorpe +45 45 14 69 68 tman@danskebank.dk
Markku Anttila +358 10 513 8705 markku.anttila@sampopankki.fi
Perttu Tuomi +358 10 513 8738 perttu.tuomi@sampopankki.fi

Danske Bank Poland, Warsaw

Maciej Semeniuk +48 22 33 77 114 msem@pl.danskebank.com
Bartłomiej Dzieniecki +48 22 33 77 112 bdz@pl.danskebank.com

Danske Markets Baltics

Howard Wilkinson +358 50 374 559 howard.wilkinson@danskebank.com
Martins Strazds +371 6707 2245 martins.strazds@danskebanka.lv
Giedre Geciauskiene +370 5215 6180 giedre.geciauskiene@danskebankas.lt
Lauri Palmaru +372 675 2464 lauri.palmaru@sampopank.ee

ZAO Danske Bank Russia, Saint-Petersburg Treasury Department

Mikko Pitkänen +7 812 332 73 06 mikko.pitkanen@danskebank.ru
Vladimir Biserov +7 812 332 73 04 vladimir.biserov@danskebank.ru
Darja Kounina +7 812 332 73 04 darja.kounina@danskebank.ru

All EM research is available on Bloomberg DMEM

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Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of
Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The author of
this research report is Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst.

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high
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Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report

Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology
as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be
obtained from the authors upon request.

Risk warning
Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis
of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.

Expected updates
This publication is updated weekly.

First date of publication

Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication.

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