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REFERENCE REV
SCSASABO9 0
TITLE: DISTRIBUTION STANDARD PART 1: DATE: DATE 2000
PLANNING GUIDELINES SECTION 23: PAGE 1 OF 16
BOOK ELECTRIFICATION LOAD REVISION DATE:
FORECASTING DATE 2003
TESCOD APPROVED
COMPILED BY FUNCTIONAL RESP. APPROVED BY AUTHORIZED BY
Contents
Page
1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 3
2 Domestic load........................................................................................................................... 3
3.1 Measurment...................................................................................................................... 13
3.2 Energy load factor method ............................................................................................... 14
3.3 Heman-Beta method......................................................................................................... 14
4.1 Background....................................................................................................................... 14
4.2 Forecasting techniques .................................................................................................... 15
Figure 1: The load profile for a low-income consumer in Durban. Source: NRS LR Project, logger UA1-
14, Umgaga, 98/6/18. ................................................................................................................... 3
Figure 2: ADD profile vs. single consumer profile. NRS LR Project, Umgaga, 98/6/18............... 4
MGM/lm/as-1/Feb00
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Figure 3: Household demand at the peak vs. Peak household demand. Source: Walmer dunes, NRS
LR Project 1997 ............................................................................................................................ 7
1 Introduction
This section describes the nature of residential domestic load and simple methods to estimate or
forecast the anticipated load.
Two main points are discussed, General background and Load forecasting
A) General background & Domestic load
A general discussion regarding household load is presented, followed by a definition of ADMD and load
densities.
B) Load Forecasting
Load forecasting include methods to determine ADMD and long range ADMD growth
2 Domestic load
A typical household load profile is shown below. The cycling of a thermostatically controlled device
(probably a fridge in this case) is apparent during the night hours. There are three periods of activity,
which are typical of domestic consumers: Morning, noon, evening, and the sleeping period.
15
Household load
current [A]
10
0
0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00
Time of day
Figure 1: The load profile for a low-income consumer in Durban. Source: NRS LR Project,
logger UA1-4, Umgaga, 98/6/18.
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b) the chance that any number of appliance/s will be in use at a particular time
Appliance ownership is strongly related to wealth levels. Upmarket consumers tend to possess large
appliances which are thermostatically controlled. The use of these appliances is not under conscious
human control, and their presence impacts greatly on the household load.
Load surveys have shown that consumers in low-income townships (i.e. semi-formal and informal
shack-dweller) do not possess such fundamental capacity and rarely develop more than 20A of
current.
Individual domestic consumer peaks are not very repetitive. On a day-to-day basis the profiles do not
repeat themselves exactly. Consequently, each consumer load profile is unique, and most times, is
not guaranteed to be like that of their physical neighbour.
2.2 The After Diversity Demand (ADD)
The after diversity demand is the average load of a large group of consumers (defined as load per
consumer).
A typical ADD profile is shown below, and represents the average load of 67 consumers over this day.
It has been mapped against the consumer load profile that was shown in Figure 1.
As an example of how different individual consumers can be, the correlation between these profiles is
only 25 % on this particular day.
14
12
[A/household]
Load current
10
8
6
4
2
0
0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00
Time of day
Figure 2: ADD profile vs. single consumer profile. NRS LR Project, Umgaga, 98/6/18.
The ADD profile shown represents the sum of individual load tendencies of this entire community.
However, whilst the ADD profile is a fair representation of the tendencies, it does not represent
individual consumer differences are at any particular time.
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The peak for a large group of consumers is called the ADMD, and may be defined as the highest
demand encountered when a large group of consumers is monitored. ADMD is expressed as an
average value per household.
When ADMD is assessed in the field, maximum demand indicators are used, at transformer level, and
the absolute value is adjusted for:
a) other loads (i.e. street-lighting shops etc.); and
In practice, the estimates so derived are only as good as the record-keeping systems surrounding
these assumptions, and errors may be appreciable particularly in fast-growing areas where the true
connection rate is difficult to assess.
2.3.2 ADMD definition
After diversity maximum demand (ADMD) is the simultaneous Maximum Demand of a group
homogeneous customers divided by the number of customers, normally expressed in kVA.
Peaks in the load of groups of consumers are primarily due to two factors:
a) individual house-loads tend to be higher; and
b) individual house-loads tend to overlap, and hence add up (i.e. they have higher coincidence or
correlation).
Therefore, any factor, which affects these two items in the same direction, will tend to increase the
demand load.
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Factor Effect
Wealth level
Wealth is associated with appliance ownership. This raises the demand of
a house. Big appliances tend to overlap between houses.
Living habits of the Individuals or groups in communities that tend do things at the same time
community tend to generate higher peak loads by correlation.
Hostel dwellers tend to have breakfast at the same time. However, they
tend to be poor, so the house loads are limited. Thus the value of their
peak is suppressed to some extent.
Local traditions, like the Cape Sunday Lunch can have a major
effect upon peaks. This is a good example of behaviour which is
highly correlated at a time-of-day and day-of-week.
Network events Voltage drop: Most appliances are thermostatically controlled. Therefore,
(Voltage drop, DSM lowered voltage would tend to increase their correlation. This is offset by
and power reduced consumption because of lowered voltage.
failure/restore)
For all practical purposes groups of consumers act like constant current
loads. They are voltage invariant.
++ Latest research has not shown currentlimiting is not statistically significant in the determination of
level of ADMD.
2.3.4 Household demand at the peak vs. peak household demand
At the time of the ADMD, the community registers its highest load value (per definition). The highest
peak load that a household develops (at any instant) could be called its potential to contribute to the
system peak, and the value is limited by the consumers circuit breaker.
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The difference between household demand at the peak and Peak household demand is merely
coincidence between households.
Figure 3: Household demand at the peak vs. Peak household demand. Source: Walmer dunes,
NRS LR Project 1997.
The average household demand at the peak is 2.8A(0,6 kVA). The average of the peak household
demands is 13.6A(3,1 kVA). The difference is a factor of 4-5 times the ADMD, typical of poorer areas.
In areas where the circuit breaker limit constrains the demand, this ratio approaches a value of 2, and
the ratio :- average-of-the-peak-household-demands to CB-size approaches unity.
Also evident from Figure 3 is the dispersion of the consumers about the average value at the time of
the peak. Most consumer loads are very small. Very few are big. No consumer takes more than 32.5 A
at the time of the peak.
The dispersion of consumers may be measured by their Standard deviation. A big standard deviation
means the consumers are not very coincident (i.e. they are diverse).
The shape of the dispersion at peak times is wealth-related. Normally poor consumers have a high
standard deviation per unit of mean (i.e. greater than 1.0pu), whilst wealthy consumers are
progressively lower and approach about 0.5pu.
Because the dispersion of consumers at the time of the peak is an expression of coincidence/diversity,
it is important to describe the shape of the distribution with reasonable accuracy.
The Beta distribution is used to do this, and the Herman Beta method is used to estimate the voltage
drops in a probabilistic manner.
For simplicity, the Beta parameters used to describe the distribution are referred to as Herman-Beta
parameters.
b) the upper limit of the distribution is fixed at the circuit breaker size for the community.
0.16
0.14
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Household current [A]
Table 2 gives the latest guide to the Herman-Beta parameters for various consumer classes.
The recommendations contained in Table 2 were derived directly from data collected via 2 sources:
a) NRS LR Project (21 township-winters); and
Statistical significance testing was used to find out what Socio-demographic factors are important for
determination of ADMD.
Hot water geyser penetration was found to be the single most significant factor associated with
magnitude of a communitys demand. Thus two strata were identified in the collected load data:
a) those consumer groups with high hot water geyser penetration; and
b) consumer groups with low hot water geyser penetration were placed in both strata.
Consumer groups with intermediate hot water geyser penetration were placed in both strata.
Prediction models for ADMD in the two strata were then derived.
From the field-research conducted to date, it appears that ADMD is more than 90% explained (i.e.
correlation) by aggregate wealth and time-with-electricity of the target community (See Figure 6).
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The dispersion of consumers about the ADMD is 90% dependent upon the level of the ADMD.
Figure 5: Derivation of Parameters for Beta distribution of domestic consumer loads
Time-electrified
The prediction-error (i.e. Standard error) of this model on the real field data was found to be less than
1.4A(0.32kVA) per household.
Since field-data revealed such strong linkages between consumer loads and wealth/time-electrified,
these two factors were used to generate estimates of demand for different distinct consumer classes,
at different times after electrification, for new consumers (shown in Table 2).
2.4.3 Guidelines for selection and manipulation of Herman-Beta parameters
b) from specific knowledge of the community, identify the class of consumer from either the class
description, a local gross-income survey or local LSM-related Market research information;
c) decide upon the circuit breaker size that will be used (i.e. 20A, 60A etc.);
d) select the planning window (i.e. 7 or 15 years), and look up the estimated ADMD and Std deviation;
e) apply the calculation to get Beta values (i.e. a,b :See later); and
Notes 1:Descriptors of the consumer classes are provided which are essentially time-invariant.
Notes 2: LSM = All Media & Product Survey (i.e. AMPS) Living Standards Measure
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The method of conversion from ADMD and Std deviation to Herman-Beta parameters is merely a pair
of formulas:
(C 2 2 ) (C )(C 2 2 )
a= b=
C 2 C 2
Where:
= ADMD [A]
b) in situations where the circuit load is constrained by the circuit breaker limit:-
2) we have found a and b are nearly equal in such situations, and the ADMD tends to reach a
maximum of about half of the Circuit breaker value (C).
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An approximate indication of the link between ADMD and consumption patterns is tabled below from
NRS 034.
Consumers can be divided into classes according to estimated annual (or monthly) consumption as the
table below indicates. The annual load factor is at township level (full diversity).
Note 1: Consumers in the very low consumption class would typically use electricity for internal lighting and
entertainment.
Note 2: Consumers in the low consumption class would typically use electricity for internal lighting and a limited range of
appliances such as a hot plate, an iron, a kettle, and possibly a fridge and television.
Note 3: Consumers in the medium consumption class would typically use electricity for a stove with an oven, limited
space heating, a fridge, a television, in addition to the items mentioned in b).
Note 4: Consumers in the high consumption class would typically use electricity for a hot water geyser, instant water
heaters, a washing machine, space heating, in addition to those items mentioned in c).
Note 5: Consumers in the very high class would for example have a second or third geyser, air conditioning, flood
lighting, a Jacuzzi, etc., in addition to the items in d).
More investigatory work is needed in the area of correlating the annual energy consumption of
consumers, the major classification characteristics of the consumers and the expected ADMD.
Consumption classification can be achieved by doing appropriate market research programmes and
economic studies for each area to be electrified. This type of work is usually done by consultants with
the necessary marketing and engineering background.
Example:
The first step is to determine the total load for the township by multiplying the final ADMD with the total
number of DSPs.
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Example:
2
ADMD = 0,6 kVA DSPs = 1500 Area = 1 km
The table below can be used to select a township domestic density classification.
2 2
DOMESTIC DENSITY STAND SIZE (m ) AVE LOAD DENSITY (kW/km )
CLASSIFICATION
( ADMDmin = 0.5 kVA
URBAN: ADMDmax = 4.5 kVA )
2
High Density(HD) < 1 000 m 500 to 30 000
2 2
Med. Density(MD) 1 000 m to 4 000 m 300 to 5 000
2 2
Low Density(LD) 4 000 m to 20 000 m 100 to 1 500
2
RURAL: > 20 000 m 0.5 to 250
Table 4 : Domestic Load Density Classifications
Using the example above and according to the above table, a medium density urban township is
described.
3.1 Measurement
The ADMD at any instance in time may be determined by measuring the maximum demand of a
representative existing township over the peak month (Typically winter for Johannesburg).
Non-residential loads such as schools, hospitals and small industries must be excluded from this
measurement exercise to ensure homogeneity. (Only the peak time contribution of these loads must
be subtracted from the overall measured ADMD to take non-residential diversity into account).
b) estimate the contribution of non-residential loads during the peak period. For example a school will
only contribute a small % of its maximum load during evening peaks since the school would be not
be occupied during these periods.
c) subtract the sum of these peak time contributions to obtain the maximum demand associated with
residential load only.
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d) the total number of households or domestic supply points (DSPs) in the area is required to finally
calculate the ADMD value.
DFDSPs
ADMD100 = ADMDDSPs (Refer to Section 28 clause 3.1 for more information)
DF100
Example:
For a township the expected 20 year horizon for energy sales is estimated to be 200 units per month
with sales of 120 units in seven years time.
The monthly load factor for the township is estimated to be 26 % for both time horizons.
kWh 200
ADMD final = = = 11
. kVA
LF hours 0.26 30 24
kWh 120
ADMDseven = = = 0.6 kVA
LF hours 0.26 30 24
4.1 Background
Load forecasting impacts the whole network plan and directly impacts capital expenditure. Residential
township load forecasting focuses on ADMD forecasting over a 15 to 20 year period which reflects the
economic life of the plant. ADMD is used for MV/LV transformer sizing and to calculate voltage drop
over the LV feeders, service cables and MV/LV transformers.
The design ADMD selection refers to the future ADMD. The most critical concept is to forecast the
future load profiles over peak load periods for various groupings of customers. This statistical
distribution of customer demands over peak periods is influenced by the:
a) affluence of the community to afford major energy intensive appliances and pay for the energy
used;
c) household and community preferences and habits in using these appliances over peak periods;
The growth and changes in these patterns needs to be forecasted over the economic life of the project
so the appropriate phased upgrade investment decisions can be made.
The customer's peak load characteristics are normally defined in terms of:-
a) an After Diversity Maximum Demand (ADMD) figure for one thousand or more customers;
b) a diversity or coincidence factor graph or equation to depict how the ADMD increases as the
sample of customers decreases down to one customer; and
c) various unbalance correction factors or statistical parameters to account for customers taking a
single phase supply which is not balanced in terms of time or physical connection to the LV
distributor.
The choice of design ADMD determines the masterplan layout from which the phased implementation
plan is built.
Two ADMD figures should be determined prior to any other analysis work or technology decisions:
An initial ADMD figure is required to determine the first phase of the future masterplan. The initial
ADMD should be used to determine an initial transformer sizing and zoning as well as to define a
phased upgrade plan. The phased upgrade should be planned for in the network layout by initially
planning on the future ADMD, and then scaling back the investment to cater for the initial time horizon.
A masterplan ADMD (final) for loads in 15 to 20 years time that is the major influencing parameter that
determines the masterplan township layout. Implementing a project using the future ADMD, will result
in unnecessary capital expenditure. Transformers will be oversized (or too numerous) and transformer
iron losses will be excessive. It is thus required to use the initial ADMD value for initial implementation
to cater for the anticipated loads for the first 5 to 7 years from project inception.
Essential to the viability of the project over time is to use a phased upgrade plan which progresses
from the initial plan towards the masterplan using the respective ADMD values
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Load Growth
Load Limit 20 A ED 60 A ED Total kVA
1600
1400
1200
Load (kVA)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
Other loads such as schools and clinics would typically have no load growth unless expansion of the
facility is expected.
Many planners use a constant percentage to grow the load over time. This means starting for instance
with 100kVA and grow it with 2 %. Further growth includes growth upon growth.
Some planners use a constant kVA value to grow the load over time. This means starting for instance
with 100kVA and grow it with 2kVA per year: