Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol: A review
on Causes, Impact, Consequences and Future
Scenario
JeevanDhakal,
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Kathmandu University (KU), Kavre, Nepal
jeevan.dhakal@student.ku.edu.np +977-9858061962
Abstract: The development and modernization of
todays world have made life easier but has come at a
certain cost. The individuals and countries are
working for their betterment and financial motives
having neglected the impact and consequences of
environmental degradation to the present and future
generations. This paper presents the root causes of
climate change, the consequences which are
conspicuous in the day to day life and the long term
impacts and the critics. We analyze the measures that
various agencies and group of organizations are
taking, its mechanisms, potency and its effectiveness.
Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1992, which commits the
countries to reduce the Green House Gas emissions, is
studied along with its mechanisms and efficacy. Also,
the modification to the protocol or new strategies is
suggested for effective implementation of Kyoto
Protocol by assessing its loopholes and shortcomings.
The ways for creating a sustainable environment and
conservation of earths nature are briefly presented.
Keywords: Global climate change, Kyoto Protocol,
Kyoto mechanism, Carbon Trading, Greenhouse
Effects.
I. Introduction:
Human activities have increasingly influenced the innate
nature of the earth. Last hundred years have changed the
way people live their life with the great technological
invention. Extraction and burning of fossil fuels, cutting
down forests, excavation of earths geological surface for
rocks, stones and natural gas, farming of livestock,
building of skyscrapers and many other human activities
are a major contributor to these developments. These
activities have changed the environment in the ways like
the constituent of the air that we breathe in, the natural
vegetation and ecosystem, earths temperature and the
creation of new breeds of diseases like cancer. The
alteration in the environment is obvious to the older
people as things were different 50 years back. The
modernization has greatly affected the climate and
earths temperature and the study of this change referred
to as climate change has been a subject of great debate
between scholars, environmentalists, government bodies
and international organizations. Green House Gas (GHG)
exhibit phenomenon known as Green House Effect and
are major contributor to global warming. Carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane, nitrous oxides, fluorinated gases are
major green house gases which get accumulated in the
environment and remain for centuries. CO2 concentration
has increased by 40% after industrialization began and is
responsible for 64% of man-made global warming while
other gases are lower in concentration but has more
green house potential relative to CO2. The causes of
green house gases can be attributed to burning coal, oil
and gas, rapid deforestation, increasing livestock
farming, excessive use of inorganic fertilizers containing
Nitrogen and use of fluorinated gas like hydro
fluorocarbons (HFCs), perflourocarbon (PFCs), sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6) etc. The observable effects of global
climate change are shrinking of glaciers, shift in
vegetation and animal ranges, change in rainfall pattern,
melting of ice and accelerated sea level rise. The
increasing effects was a concern hence
environmentalists, agencies and concerned nationals felt
the need of governing body to commit nations and
impose obligations to reduction of green house gas
emissions. United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in the year
1992 which addressed climate change as an international
concern for the first time at an international level. The
necessity of a protocol, an international agreement with
strict GHG emission reduction demands was felt and in
1997, the UNFCCC meeting held at Kyoto, Japan passed
Kyoto Protocol which was adopted unanimously.
II. Climate Change:
The Earths climate has experienced change throughout
the history Most of the changes can be attributed to small
variations in Earths orbit and the amount of solar
radiation it receives. Last 7000 years marks the
beginning of modern climate era and human civilization.
The current trend of earths global average temperature
varies significantly to the trend it follows; the current
global average temperature is 0.85C higher than it was
in the late 19th century while each of past decades is
getting warmer [1]].
Figure 1 Temperature anomaly from 1890 to 2010 [2]
The image and information about our planet on a global
scale provided by the earth orbiting satellites reveal the
signs of changing climate. Climate scientists suggest
human activities are the main in cause of the warming
observed since middle of the 20th century but it has some
critics to this. A general section of people still argue
argues that
global warming is a natural phenomenon in the longer
cycle of the earth and human activities are not the
principal cause, and the formation and increase of water
vapors in thee earths atmosphere contribute significantly
to the climate change. An increase of 2C is seen by
scientists as threshold beyond which there is much higher
risk of catastrophic changes in the global environment.
Figure 2 Present status of CO2 gas in ppm, global
temperature increase since 1880, melting of arctic ice
in percentage and land ice in gigatonnes per year [2]
The Figure shows the present status of CO2 gas in parts
per million (ppm) the root cause for global warming and
climate change,, the global increase in temperature in
degrees Fahrenheit since the year 1880, the percentage of
arctic ice melting per decade, and the percentage of land
ice melting in terms of Giga tones per year. Few studies
have pointed that GHE has some projected benefits
which mainly include increased crop harvesting in few
regions of main latitudes, potential increase in global
timber supply from appropriately managed forest,
increased waterr availability in some water-scarce
water
regions, reduced energy demand for space heating
purpose and reduced winter mortality. The consequences
however are more severe such as increased incidence of
death and serious illness in people of older age andan poor
peoples,
ples, increase in flood, landslides, avalanche and soil
erosion, decreased yield of few crops, increased risk to
human life from breeding of new infectious diseases,
increased
eased energy demand for cooling and increased death
of aquatic life causes a greater risk
isk to aquatic ecosystem.
III. Green House Gas (GHG):
The greenhouse gases CO2, Methane, Water vapor,
Nitrous oxide and Ozone) are naturally present in the
atmosphere while Fluorinated gases like CFC, HFC and
SF6 are emitted as a result of human activity. These
gases are characterized by heat capturing ability
abilit due to
which radiant heat from the Sun is captured in the lower
atmosphere of the earth, thus maintaining the
temperature of the earth which is referred as Green
House Effect (GHE). GHE is a natural phenomenon and
very important for sustaining life in the Earth but due to
excessive emissions of Green House Gases (GHG) as a
result of human activities, more heat is captured by the
gases thus gradually increasing the temperature of the
earth. The increase in temperature has affected the
human life and the ecosystem, as people living on the
coastal area are being displaced from their home because
of rise in sea level, the melting of the glaciers and
Antarctic ice hasas greatly affected the ecosystem and
resulted into draught and loss of water supply.
Figure 3 Global Percentage
ercentage emission of GHG [3]
Water Vapor is naturally most abundant GHG while
CO2 is produced in large amount due to burning
burni of fossil
fuels and biomass. Two major ways in which GHG gases
differ from earth other are their ability to absorb Suns
radiation and how long they stay in our atmosphere. The
effect of these gases are measured in terms of Global
Warming Potential (GWP) which compares the amount
of heat trapped by certain mass of the gas to the amount
of heat trapped by similar mass of CO2. GWP allows
comparisons
omparisons of the global warming impact of different
GHG and is very important in preparing a national GHG
inventory. The GHG inventory is used by policymakers
and officials to adjust and revise the emission cap on
these emissions. The rapid deforestation has also helped
to increase the level of CO2 as trees are considered the
natural sink for the Carbon dioxide gas. The trees absorb
CO2 gas which in a period of million years is
successfully converted to fossil fuels, but humans have
exhausted the fuel reserve
erve in less than 200 years which
caused the rapid increase in Carbon gases and these
emissions take thousands of years to be converted into
fuel by natural sink such as forests and vegetation..
vegetation.
According to Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Sinks
nks and the Greenhouse Gas Reporting
Program, the GHG emissions caused by human activities
in U.S.A. increased by 7% from 1990 to 20142014, however
since
ce 2005, the emissions have decreased
decrease relatively. CO2
is the major emission produced largely due to electricity
electrici
generation and transportation. Globally the net emissions
increased by 35 percent from 1990 to 2010, CO2
accounting for more than three-fourths
fourths of total emission
with 42 percent increase in this period. The industrial era
marks the increase of CO2, and all of the increase can be
attributed to the human activities. The historical records
show that global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is
unprecedented with the past 800,000 years even after
accounting for natural fluctuations. GHG force change of
Earths energy balance, leading either to a warming or
cooling effects. The positive warming caused by the
increase in GHG concentrations is 37 percent from year
1990 to 2015, CO2 alone accounting for 30 percent of the
warming effect [4].
 Table I
Greenhouse gases with their average lifetime in the
atmosphere and Global warming potential of one
molecule of gas over 100 years [5]
IV. Kyoto Protocol:
a) Birth:
In the year 1992, an international treaty was
formed which provided a framework for
international co-operation to combat the climate
change due to global warming and to co-operate
with the impacts of climate change. The treaty
referred as UNFCCC was first step in an
international stage that climate change was indeed
truth and not a hoax. UNFCCC on the year 1995,
launched negotiations to strengthen the global
response to the climate change with stricter
emission reduction demands and after two years in
the Conference of the parties of UNFCCC (COP 3)
a legally binding protocol was adopted unanimously
by countries to set the reduction of GHG emissions.
The protocol is known as Kyoto Protocol since the
convention took place in Kyoto, Japan, was the first
real step to impose bans on GHG emissions and
setting mandatory targets for countries. The
protocol entered into force on February, 2005. The
prominent and common major focus was reduction
in GHG such as CO2, SO2, and CFC by introducing
features such as Carbon-trading and Cap and Trade.
These features introduce the concept of Buyer and a
Seller on the basis of emissions they are producing.
The buyer produces more emissions and pays
financially to the seller who gets the financial
incentive by agreeing to produce fewer emissions.
A group of six long-lived GHG and
halocarbons are recognized under the Kyoto
Protocol, defined in Annex A with the source
contributions including the emissions from fuels,
industry and land use change. The five non-CO2
GHGs are more potent in terms of contribution to
anthropogenic climate change, and accounted for 37
percent of radiative forcing [6] which exceeded the
20 percent of projected warming [7]. A common
term is necessary which can compare the GHP
between gases to meet the restrictions posed by the
protocol and respective governments. Hence, GHG
emissions are calculated in context of their CO2
equivalence giving a single value which allows for
easier calculation of warming potential and the
measures to meet the emission cap. Each country
has their individual targets and commitments may
vary from nation to nation. The countries are
divided into Annex 1 (Developed nations and
Nations with Economies in Transition (EIT)) and
Annex 2 (Countries without the countries with
Economics in Transition) while non-annex I
countries are developing countries. The Annex I
include countries that were members of
Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) in 1992, while Annex II
countries consists of OECD members of Annex I,
but not Economic In Transition (EIT) countries. The
Non-Annex I countries are groups of developing
countries recognized by the Convention as being
especially vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate
change, including countries of low-lying coastal
areas [5].
Kyoto Protocol has set commitment periods for
countries to achieve the required emission target.
The first commitment period started from 2008 and
ended in 2012 which aimed to reduce the GHG
emission by 5 percent against the 1990 level. Some
countries had emission limitations reduce below the
base year level, some at the base year level and
some above the base year level. The DOHA
amendments in the year 2012 passed the second
commitment period which started from year 2013 to
the year 2020. This period aims to reduce the GHG
emission by 18 percent against the 1990 level.
Figure 4 Participation of Countries as of Feb, 2012;
green light represents ratification of treaty, dark
green being Annex 1 country, light green as Annex 2
countries, red represents Countries that withdraw
from the protocol, orange represents no intent to
ratify, grey color represents unknown status
b) Mechanisms
To achieve the common objective of re-establishing
atmosphere GHG concentrations at a level that will
prevent catastrophic and dangerous anthropogenic
inference with the climate system the protocol defines
three flexibility mechanisms that can be used by
Annex I countries to meet their emission reduction
commitments. The countries must aim to reduce the
GHE targets through national measures but can use the
Kyoto mechanisms if they are below their emission
reduction target. The Kyoto mechanisms are:
 A. Joint Implementation (JI)
The article 6 of the Protocol defines JI which is one
of the innovative project based mechanisms which
provides the platform for two Annex I parties to work
together to achieve their emission reduction target. The
countries enables collaborative projects between two
Annex I countries to be implemented jointly to achieve
co-operative emissions reducing activities to be put on
practice. JI activities are additional to what national
measures have been already taken, and this innovative
mechanisms encourages the exploration of possibilities
of more efficient technologies, opportunities for
improving efficiency and establishing the infrastructures
for clean and green energy. The project includes
exploration of alternative fuels, improvement in
automobiles emission, reduction of methane emissions
and provisions for the inclusion of land use, land use
change and forestry activities (LULUCF) in determining
carbon mitigation efforts.
B. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
CDM is the implementation of joint collaboration
between an industrialized nation which has certain
emission standards to met with a developing country
which has no commitment. The Article 12 of Kyoto
Protocol defines the purpose of CDM. The Annex I
country buys Carbon credit with the non-annex country
to achieve its emission target but doesnt financially
reward the non-annex country. The Carbon credit is paid
through help in technologies like wind power generation,
renewable energy and clean energy technology with
Certified Emission Reduction Units (CER). The protocol
also specifies that a share of all proceeds from CDM
projects should be allocated to offering financial help to
developing countries vulnerable to the adverse effects of
climate change. The major difference between JI and
CDM being that CDM projects is carried out between a
country that has certain emission reduction obligation
and a country that has no obligations [8].
C. Emissions Trading (EI)
A country that doesnt meet the emission restriction set
by the Kyoto can purchase Carbon units and credit them
to its own emission reduction. This is the most popular
mechanism which enables emission trading between
developed countries. Each country is assigned emission
units to fulfill, each country may choose to use up its
entire allocation or achieve greater reduction units
compared to its set target. The country which achieves a
greater reduction can sell surplus emission units in terms
of CO2 equivalence or Carbon Units. The price is
determined by the market as the highest bidder can buy
the license in the international market.
Critics of Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is an important step towards
effective climate change mitigation and it has introduced
many features such as Carbon Trading, Clean
Development Mechanisms, etc there are weaknesses and
loopholes in this mechanisms which are discussed.
CDM allows the countries that have greater
financial power to increase their emissions by
paying the financially weaker country. The Protocol
doesnt set any restrictions to lower the emission
level by implementing national measures and the
countries can pay to pollute.
Kyoto Protocol doesnt consider the emissions
based on International Aviation and Shipping which
constitutes about 5 to 10 percent of GHG emission
[9].
The base year 1990 is not agreeable for all parties as
different countries had different achievements in
energy. Russia and European countries were at their
worst level of emissions while Japans emission
level was better.
The powerhouse of world economy such as USA
and Canada has not ratified the protocol and has
denounced the protocol respectively because there
are no binding targets for developing countries
which contain almost 80 percent of population.
Economists debate that Kyoto protocol emerged
from more of a political agenda that clear cost to
benefit analysis.
The Russian scientists challenge that climate change
is a natural process and water vapors are the most
potent factor in GHE and there is no proof to the
theory that CO2 is mainly responsible for
undergoing climate change.
LULUCF program which is aimed to increase
reduce conversion of forest to agricultural use, and
provide more natural sink for carbon dioxide
sequestration. It is highly controversial as
biospheric carbon sequestration is not comparable to
reducing increasing direct emissions and long term
survival of biological sink cannot be guaranteed
[10].
V. Suggestions/ Future scenario:
Transformation of Kyoto Protocol to a superior
agreement and more effective in dealing with cost
uncertainty is required. Dynamic targets can be set
for countries based on their actual economic growth.
Pizer (2002) suggests introduction of price caps into
the international trading regime. With the price cap,
emission reduction needed to achieve the
commitment would be undertaken as long the
marginal cost of the reduction is lower than some
agreed price [11]. Non-binding targets for
 developing countries is also an attractive option.
The targets would provide an incentive for emission
reduction and sales could occur if actual emissions
are less than the targets. The non-binding targets
might be fixed or dynamic, country wide. Dynamic
targets would offer developing countries a greater
chance to participate in international emission. The
system of per capita emission rather than emission
as a percentage of a base year is more scientific and
encourages the developed countries to be more
responsible towards reducing emissions at domestic
level rather than on carbon trading mechanisms.
Identifying specific policy requirements for
individual countries may be better choice than
emission commitments. The policies and reforms
according to the national circumstances assure a
win-win situation for both developing and
developed countries. Developing countries can be
attracted towards policy commitments to providing
international financing for cost-effective emission
reduction.
Nordhaus [2002] proposes Carbon tax as alternative
to Kyoto framework especially under the form of
fitting domestic taxes [12]. Though the taxing
process domestically and at international level is a
difficult process, this process can be considered an
alternative in any future international strategy.
The major industrial powerhouses like USA and
Canada have to be persuaded to ratify the Kyoto
protocol as otherwise it can lead to withdrawal of
many other countries from the protocol.
VI. Conclusion
The consequences of climate change are obvious as the
melting of arctic ice and land ice is increasing day by day
and rising of sea-level. The major causes of climate
change, its impacts and consequences, global warming
by green house gases has been properly analyzed in this
paper. Reduction in the emission of GHG is important to
provide a natural balance to the atmosphere and the
measures and restriction applied by laws and protocol to
different countries to achieve their reduction target seems
scientific. The Kyoto Protocol which is first of its kind to
impose restriction in emission has been already effective
to some extent although it has many loopholes and critics
to it. The modification of the protocol is suggested in this
paper. The modification and revision of the protocol is
necessary for global participation to achieve the emission
reduction targets.
References
[1] European Commission. (2017) [Online]. ec.europa.eu
[2] NASA. (2017) NASA. [Online]. https://climate.nasa.gov/
[3] United States Environmental Protection Agency. (2017)
EPA. [Online]. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-
greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
[4] U.S GHG Inventory, Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Sinks and the Greenhouse Gas Reporting
Program, 2012.
[5] UNFCCC. UNFCCC. [Online].
http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/background/items/2879.php
[6] Shindell and Faluvegi, , 2009.
[7] Princiotta, , 2009.
[8] natural conservation, building and nuclear safety Federal
ministry for the environment. (2017) [Online].
http://www.bmub.bund.de/en/topics/climate-
energy/climate/international-climate-policy/kyoto-
protocol/kyoto-mechanisms/#c48575
[9] Gregory Gould, David Greene David McCollum, "GHG
Emissions from Aviation and Marine Transportation;
Mitigation Potential and Policies," PWE Center Global
Climate Change, 2009.
[10] Mahesh Arora. Critical Analysis of Kyoto Protocol.
[Online]. http://www.omabc.com/united-
nations/conventions/kyoto/critical-analysis-kyoto-protocol/
[11] Pizer, "2002".
[12] Nordhaus, "2002".
[13] Cedric Philibert, "Lessons from the Kyoto Protocol:
Implications for the Future," International review for
Environmental Studies, 2004.
[14] Igor Shislov roman Morel, "EX-POST EVALUATION OF
THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: FOUR KEY LESSONS FOR
THE 2015 PARIS AGREEMENT," Research on economics
of climate change, 2014.
[15] James J. McCarthy, Climate change 2001: Impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability, Osvaldo F. Canziani, Ed.:
Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[16] Penny Lambert, "A critical analysis of the Kyoto Protocol
using Monte Carlo Simulation," The plymouth Student
Scientist, 2012.
[17] INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE
CHANGE, "Climate change 2007: The physical Science
Basis," 2007.
[18] JUAN MANUEL SABIO MORCHIO, "A CRITICAL
ANALYSIS OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOLS SECOND
COMMITMENT PERIOD," , 2013.