J. Cent. South Univ.

(2015) 22: 46254633

DOI: 10.1007/s11771-015-3013-9

Reliability estimation and remaining useful lifetime prediction for

bearing based on proportional hazard model

WANG Lu(), ZHANG Li(), WANG Xue-zhi()

School of Information, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China
Central South University Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Abstract: As the central component of rotating machine, the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime
prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the
reliability. A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of bearings was proposed,
consisting of three phases. Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the
manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis
(feature selection step). Time series analysis based on neural network, as an identification model, was used to predict the features of
bearing vibration signals at any horizons (feature prediction step). Furthermore, according to the features, degradation factor was
defined. The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing (RUL
prediction step). The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing
reliability estimation and RUL prediction.

Key words: prognostics; reliability estimation; remaining useful life; proportional hazard model

network (ANN) as a method to improve accurate RUL

1 Introduction
Prognostic is now recognized as a key process in
maintenance strategies for the remaining useful life of
the equipment, which makes it possible to prevent
critical damages and spending [1]. Recently, the field has
received widespread attention in modern industries and
academies, and various advanced prognostics approaches
have been proposed. They can be generally classified as
physics of failure, data driven and fusion. Physics of
failure approaches relies on the physics of underlying
failure mechanisms. Data driven approaches achieve
remaining useful lifetime (RUL) estimation via data
fitting mainly including machine learning and statistics
based approaches. The fusion approaches are the
combination of the physics of failure and data driven
approaches. However, for complex or large-scale
engineering systems, it is typically difficult to obtain the
physical failure mechanisms in advance or cost-
expensive and time- consuming to capture the physics of
failure. In contrast, data-driven approaches attempt to
derive models directly from collected condition
monitoring and life data, and thus are more appealing
and have gained much attention in recent years [2].
MAHAMAD et al [3] proposed an artificial neural
prediction of bearing failure. In this method, ANN model
used time and fitted measurements to calculate Weibull
hazard rates of root mean square (RMS) and kurtosis
from its present and previous points as input, and the
normalized life percentage was selected as output.
DEVARAJAN and EBRAHIMI [4] developed a
generalization of the Cox PH model in terms of the
cumulative hazard function taking a form similar to the
Cox PH model, with the extension that the baseline
cumulative hazard function is raised to a power function.
CHEN et al [5] proposed a novel reliability estimation
approach to the cutting tools based on logistic regression
model by using vibration signals, which is superior to
other degradation estimation methods in that it does not
necessitate any assumption about degradation paths and
probability density functions of condition parameters.
Generally, these approaches can indicate the
performance degradation of machine as well as assist in
forecasting the machine RUL. However, some
disadvantages still exist, namely all these approaches are
offline, which leads it difficult to apply them in
industries. Focusing on the problem, some solutions have
been proposed.
TRAN et al [6] used a three-stage method for
assessing the machine health degradation and forecasting

Foundation item: Project(61174115) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China; Project(L2013001) supported by Scientific Research
Program of Liaoning Provincial Education Department, China
Received date: 20141105; Accepted date: 20150410
Corresponding author: ZHANG Li, Professor, PhD; Tel: +8613390552858; E-mail: zhang_li@lnu.edu.cn
4626 J. Cent. South Univ. (2015) 22: 46254633
the RUL: in the first stage, only the normal operating (xk), crest (xc), margin (xma), shape (xsha) and impulse
condition of machine is used to create the identification factor (xi), respectively. The first five parameters reflect
model for recognizing the dynamic system behavior; in the vibration amplitude and energy in time domain. The
the second stage, the Coxs proportional hazard model is remaining parameters represent the time series
generated to estimate the survival function of the system; distribution of the signal in time domain [15]. These
in the last stage, support vector machine, which is one of features are described mathematically in Table 1.
the remarkable machine learning techniques, is in
association with time-series techniques which is utilized Table 1 Mathematical description of features
to forecast the RUL. SI et al [7] presented a degradation Parameter Description
path-dependent approach for RUL estimation through the xr max(x(n)) min( x(n))
Range
combination of Bayesian updating and expectation N
maximization (EM) algorithm. LIU et al [8] proposed an
Mean x ( n)
on-line adaptive prognostics strategy with five various xm n 1

optimized online SVR prediction algorithms. An N

Peak xp max | x(n) |
approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-
2
form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process N
| x ( n) |
with measurement errors was proposed by TANG et al n 1
Root amplitude xra
[9]. The unknown fixed parameters in the presented N

model are estimated using the maximum likelihood

estimation (MLE) approach. BENKEDJOUH et al [10] N
proposed a method reling on two steps (an offline step
Root mean square x ( n) 2
and an online step) to track the health state and predict xrms n 1

the remaining useful life of the bearings. The offline step N

N
is used to learn the degradation models of the bearings
whereas the online step uses these models to assess the Standard deviation ( x ( n ) xm ) 2
n 1
xstd
current health state of the bearings and predicts their N 1
RUL. HONG et al [11] developed an adaptive prediction N

method for health trend prediction of rotating bearings, Skewness

( x ( n) x m ) 3
n 1
xske
which is accurate and can reduce the computational 3
( N 1) xstd
complexity. N
In the present study, a three-step approach is
Kurtosis
( x ( n ) xm ) 4
n 1
proposed to assess the reliability and forecast the RUL of xk 4
( N 1) xstd
bearings. Firstly, the online signals are measured and the
xp
features of signals are extracted. Moreover, an Crest xc
identification model which is created by the features xrms
extracted in first step is used to predict features trends in xp
Margin xma
future. An accurate features trends prediction determines xra
the accuracy of reliability estimation and RUL prediction, x
Shape xsha rms
and it is the focus of this work. Finally, the proportional xm
hazard model is generated to estimate the survival xp
Impulse factor xi
function and forecast the RUL of the bearing. xm
Note: x(n) is a signal series for n = 1, 2, 3, , N, and N is number of data
2 Reliability estimation and remaining useful points.
lifetime prediction method based on
proportional hazard model 2.2 Feature selection using correlation analysis
The above metioned features have different
2.1 Feature definition importances though they are all indicatives of different
Vibration signals change along with the states of running states of machine components. Some of them
machine components varying from sharp to worn. change evidently and are closely related to the running
According to previous studies [1214], some states, while others are not. For this reason, before a
time-dependent features can reflect the states of feature vector is input into the proportional hazard model,
components. In this section, 12 time-dependent features it is necessary to select features from the feature set,
parameters are extracted, and they are range (xr), mean which can reflect the running states changing of machine
(xm), peak (xp), root amplitude (xra), root mean square components, and discard the irrelevant or redundant
(xrms), standard deviation (xstd), skewness (xske), kurtosis features to improve the estimating accuracy and avoid
J. Cent. South Univ. (2015) 22: 46254633
the problem of dimensionality. Here, correlation analysis
is used to select the related features. The correlation
coefficient (U, V) between two one-dimensional vectors
of the same length U and V, is defined by
(U U )(V V )
(u, v) (1)
(U U )(U U )' (V V )(V V )'
where U and V are the mean values of U and V,
respectively. The value of ranges from 1 to +1. >0,
=0 and <0 indicate a positive correlation, an irrelevant
correlation, and a negative correlation, respectively. The
larger the absolute value of , the higher the degree of
correlation [1617].
2.3 Neural network for time-series analysis
A three-layer feed-forward network (FFNN) with
sigmoid hidden neurons and linear output neurons (fitnet)
can fit multi-dimensional mapping problems arbitrarily
well. Besides, given consistent data and enough neurons
in its hidden layer, FFNNs are among the most important
and widely used forms of networks for time series
modeling and forecasting. One significant advantage of
the feed-forward neural networks over other classes of
nonlinear models is that they are universal approximators
that can approximate a large class of functions with a
high degree of accuracy [1819]. The model is
characterized by a network of three layers of simple
processing units connected by acyclic links, as shown in
Fig. 1.
Fig. 1 Feed-forward neural network structure
The relationship between the output (yt) and the
inputs (yt1, , ytp) has the following mathematical
representation:
Q P
yt w0 wg ( w0 j wij yt i ) et (2) where the product is over the m distinct ordered survival
j 1 i 1
where wij (i = 0, 1, 2, , P; j=1, 2, , Q) and wj (j=0, 1,
2, , Q) are model parameters which are often called
connection weights; P is the number of input nodes; Q is
the number of hidden nodes; et is the residual of model at
time t; g is the transfer function. Moreover, logsig
(log-sigmoid), tansig (tangent-sigmoid) and purelin
4627
(linear) are often used as the hidden layer transfer
function.
Hence, the FFNNs perform a nonlinear functional
mapping from the past obserbations to the future value yt,
i.e.,
yt f ( yt 1 ,..., yt p ,W ) et (3)
where W is a vector of all parameters and f() is a
function determined by the network structure and
connection weights. Thus, a FFNN is equivalent to a
nonlinear autoregressive model.
In the network, Levenberg-Marquardt back-
propagation algorithm is one of the earliest and the most
common methods as a training algorithm.
2.4 Proportional hazard model and survival function
Coxs PH model is a widely accepted semi-
parametric model for analysis of failures with covariates.
It has been successfully used for survival analysis in
medical areas and reliability predictions in accelerated
life testing. PH model is developed based on the hazard
rate function, assuming that the hazard rate (t|z) under
the covariate z is the product of an unspecified baseline
hazard rate 0(t) and a relative risk ratio, exp( z ),
where is the regression coefficient vector. The model
can be generally expressed as:
(t|z)=0(t) exp( z ) (4)
These coefficients are generally estimated by
maximizing the partial likelihood function without
specifying the baseline hazard function 0(t). The partial
likelihood function can be written as
n exp( zi )
l( ) ( ) i (5)
i 1 exp( z j )
jR (t i )
where the summation in the denominator is over all
subjects in the risk set at time ti, denoted by R(ti). Recall
that the risk set consists of all subjects with survival or
censored times greater than or equal to the specified
time.
The expression in Eq. (5) assumes that there are no
tied times, and it is often modified to exclude terms when
i=0, yielding
m exp( zi )
l( ) (6)
i 1 exp( z j )
jR (t i )
times and zi denotes the value of the covariate for the
subject with ordered survival time ti. The logarithmic
partial likelihood function is
m
L( ) ( zi ln( exp( z j ))) (7)
i 1 j R ( t i )
The maximum partial likelihood estimator, denoted
4628 J. Cent. South Univ. (2015) 22: 46254633

as , can be obtained by differentiating the right hand Weibull, respectively. The model is referred to as the
side of Eq. (7) with respect to . Moreover, the Weibull PH model.

derivative of Eq. (7) can be set equal to zero, and then
can solve the unknown parameter. The derivative of Eq.
(7) with respect to is
2.5 Three-step method for reliability estimation and
RUL prediction
In order to estimate the reliablility and forecast the

m
z j exp( z j ) remaining useful life of bearings, a three-step method is
L proposed, which includes feature selection, feature
zi
j R ( t i )
(8)
i 1
exp( z j )

prediction, and RUL prediction, as described in Fig. 2.
j R ( t i ) Before that, vibration signals of bearings are measured
The estimator of the variance of the estimator of the and can be input into the proposed method. Details of
coefficient is obtained in the same manner as variance each step are given as follows:
estimators are obtained in most maximum likelihood
estimation applications. The estimator is the inverse of
the negative of the second derivative of the logarithmic
partial likelihood at the value of the estimator. In
particular, the following expression can be obtained by
taking the derivative of Eq. (8):
exp(z j ) z 2j exp(z j )
2 m
L
jR(ti ) jR(ti )

2
i 1
exp( z j )
jR(ti )

( z j exp( z j ))2 )
jR (t i )
(9)
exp( z j )

jR ( t i )
The negative of the second derivative of the
logarithmic partial likelihood in Eq. (9) is called
observed information matrix, and it is denoted as
2L
I ( ) (10)
2
One of the advantages of the PH model is its
capability of including time-dependent covariates [20].
Considering the hard failure by the baseline function 0(t) Fig. 2 Flow chart of proposed method
and degradation simultaneously, the hazard rate in the
form of PH model can be expressed as Step 1: Feature selection. Online vibration and
(t | z (t )) 0 (t ) exp( z (t )) (11) temperature signals of bearings are measured during the
manufacturing process and the most useful
where z (t ) [ z1 (t ), z2 (t ),, z n (t )] consists of n
time-dependent features of vibration signals are extracted
degradation features at given time t. Note that the
by using correlation analysis. According to the features,
conditional hazard rate (t|z(t)) in Eq. (11) is a function
degradation factor is defined.
of time only. The corresponding reliability function
Step 2: Feature prediction. A feed-forward neural
conditional on the history of degradation features up to
network, as an identification model, is created to predict
time t is
the features trends in future, and temperature data, as
t
R(t | {z ( ) : 0 t}) exp( ( | z ( ))d ) (12) external inputs, are input into the network to improve the
0
prediction accuracy.
Weibull distribution is a widely used failure time Step 3: RUL prediction. The proportional hazard
distribution. In a special case, assuming the baseline model is generated to estimate the survival function and
hazard has the form of two-parameter Weibull yields forecast the RUL of the bearing.
1
t
(t | z (t )) exp( z (t )) (13) 3 Signals acquisition

where >0 and >0 are the shape and scale parameters of The proposed method is applied to estimate the
J. Cent. South Univ. (2015) 22: 46254633 4629
reliability and forecast the RUL of bearings, and these operating condition during the first 3020 points of the
bearing data can be acquired from an experimentation time series and after that, the bearing operating condition
platform, PRONOSTIA [21]. The main objective of is suddenly changed, which may be caused by bearing
PRONOSTIA is to provide the real experimental data wear. Without taking any necessary measures, the
that can characterize the degradation of ball bearings bearing is broken down at the 4210th point, which may
along their whole operational life. This experimental result from ball flaking, inner spalling, or outer spalling.
platform is composed of three main parts: a rotating part, Moreover, the failure threshold is used to attain the
a degradation generation part and a measurement part, as
shown in Fig. 3. The rotating part is driven by an
asynchronous motor with a power of 250 W and a speed
of 1500 r/min. The degradation generation part
constitutes the heart of the global system where a fore
actuator reduces the bearings life duration by setting its
value beyond the bearings maximum dynamic load
which is 4000 N. The vibration sensor and temperature
sensor fixed on the platform are used to collect the
signals.

Fig. 3 Experimentation platform of PRONOSTIA: 1Ni DAQ Fig. 4 Vibration (a) and temperature (b) signals
card; 2Pressure regulator; 3Cylinder pressure; 4Bearing
tested; 5 Accelerometers; 6 Thermocouple; 7 Coupling;
8 Torquemeter; 9 Speed reducer; 10 Speed sensor;
11AC motor

In this work, both the vibration and temperature

signals of bearings are measured under 5000 N load, and
they are sampled at 25.6 kHz and 0.1 Hz, respectively.
PRONOSTIA platform enables to perform run-to-failure
experiments. In order to avoid the propagation of
damages to the whole test bed, tests are stopped when the
amplitude of the vibration signal overpasses 20g. In the
whole process, 1111040 samples of vibration signals and
42717 samples of temperature signals are measured, as
depicted in Fig. 4.

4 Application and results

As shown in Figs. 510, 12 time-dependent features

of vibration signals listed in Table 1 are extracted and the
root amplitude is selected as the degradation factor, in
which the failure threshold is set at 0.3 by considering all
values of degradation factor in normal operating
condition below it. The bearing is obvious in normal Fig. 5 Range (a) and mean (b) of vibration signal
4630 J. Cent. South Univ. (2015) 22: 46254633

Fig. 6 Peak (a) and root amplitude (b) of vibration signal Fig. 8 Skewness (a) and kurtosis (b) of vibration signal

Fig. 7 Root mean square (a) and standard deviation (b) of Fig. 9 Crest (a) and margin (b) of vibration signal
vibration signal
bearing state sequence are calculated to choose which
censored data which consists of a series of 0 and 1 feature is the input of PH model. The coefficients are
values indicating the normal condition and failure listed in Table 2. Among these coefficients, the
condition, respectively. correlation coefficients (CCs) of the root amplitude, the
As mentioned in previous section, the correlation standard deviation, and the root mean square are greater
coefficients between 12 time-dependent features and than 0.75, which indicates that they are closely related to
J. Cent. South Univ. (2015) 22: 46254633 4631
their corresponding 3520 sample points are used to fit a
feed-forward neural network (FFNN) in order to forecast
the future trends. Temperature signals of the bearing are
also input into the network to improve the accuracy of
prediction. The predicted features are shown in Figs.
1113, in which they are compared to the real features.

Fig. 11 Predicted standard deviation

Fig. 10 Shape (a) and impluse factor (b) of vibration signal

Table 2 CCs between 12 time-dependent features and bearing

states sequence
Feauture Value
Range 0.6971
Mean 0.0075
Fig. 12 Predicted root mean square
Peak 0.6467
Root amplitude 0.7774
Root mean square 0.7771
Standard deviation 0.7772
Skewness 0.1343
Kurtosis 0.0071
Crest 0.2087
Margin 0.2566
Shape 0.0100
Impluse factor 0.0100

the bearing state sequence. For this reason, these three

features are selected as the input of PH model.
In this work, even though 4340 sample points are
shown above, only 3520 sample points are used for the
purpose of assessing reliability and forecasting the RUL
of bearings. Thus, after these three features are selected,
Fig. 13 Predicted root amplitude
The Weibull proportional hazard model is built
based on these three features predicted in previous step.
4632 J. Cent. South Univ. (2015) 22: 46254633
Standard deviation, root mean square, and root amplitude | tactual tpredicted |
A (1 ) 100%
sequances are denoted as z1(t), z2(t), and z3(t), tactual
respectively. The parameters of the proposed model are
| 820 829 |
estimated as =1.0366, =0.6837, 1=6.7870, 2=3.5752, (1 ) 100% 98.9% (15)
820
and 3=13.2698. Thus, the Weibull PH model can be
obtained as
5 Conclusions
1.0366 t
(t | z(t )) ( )0.0366 exp(6.787 z1 (t )
0.6837 0.6837 The present study proposes a reliability estimation
3.5752 z2 (t ) 13.2698 z3 (t )) (14) and RUL prediction approach of bearings, which consists
of three steps. In the first step, online signals of bearings
The hazard rate and survival function estimation are
are measured and 12 time-dependent features of the
depicted in Figs. 14 and 15, respectively. In Fig. 14, the
vibration signals are extracted. Moreover, the correlation
hazard rate remains approximately in the same value of
analysis is applied to select the closely related features.
zero during the first 3020 points, and from the 4210th
In the second step, only signals in normal condition are
point, the hazard rate changes significantly because of
used to fit FFNNs to predict the the features trends in
the rapid growth of these three feature values. The
future, and in order to attain a high accuracy, the
greater the hazard rate is, the lower the reliability is. In
temperature signals are choosen as the input of the
this work, the surviaval probability is set as 0.3, and the
networks as well. In the last step, a Weibull proportional
point that reaches for 0.3 in the predicted sequences is
hazard model is built to forecast the remaining useful life
the 4349th, which means that the predicted RUL of the
of the bearings. The good accuracy of the predicted
bearing after the 3520th point is 829 s ((43493520)1=
results indicates that the proposed method could be
829) while the actual RUL is 820 s. The accuracy (A) can
applied to assess reliability and forecast the RUL of
be evaluated by
bearings.

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