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PRECIPITACIONES MAXIMAS 24 h (mm)

AO CHIRIACO

2001 75.0
2002 101.0
2003 77.0
2004 43.0
2005 42.5
2006 73.8
2007 109.0
2008 67.7 120.0
2009 79.0
100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
01 02
20 20
CHIRIACO

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
PRECIPITACION MAX. 24h (mm)

AO P(mm) P ORDENADOS F(x) f(x) MEDIA 74.22


2001 75.0 109.0 0.9405 0.005305 DESV.EST. 22.31
2002 101.0 101.0 0.8850 0.008701
2003 77.0 79.0 0.5848 0.017477
2004 43.0 77.0 0.5495 0.017744
2005 42.5 75.0 0.5139 0.017872
2006 73.8 73.8 0.4925 0.017879
2007 109.0 67.7 0.3850 0.017134
2008 67.7 43.0 0.0808 0.006716
2009 79.0 42.5 0.0775 0.006507

histograma Si quiero conocer la precipita


0.020000

0.018000
sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

0.016000
--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =
0.014000 --> Pno exc = 1-P exc
0.012000
z = f ( Pexc
0.010000

0.008000 z=
0.006000
y=
0.004000

0.002000

- y=
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
Si quiero conocer la precipitacin Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 = 0.01


--> Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.99

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

2.32634787

m+z s

126.1207
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS
PRECIPITACION MAX. 24h (mm)
AO P(mm) Q ORD. y = ln (x) F(x) f(x) MEDIA 4.2627
2001 75.0 109.00 4.6913 0.9061 0.5150 DESV.EST. 0.32548962
2002 101.0 101.00 4.6151 0.8605 0.6820
2003 77.0 79.00 4.3694 0.6285 1.1615
2004 43.0 77.00 4.3438 0.5984 1.1882
2005 42.5 75.00 4.3175 0.5668 1.2084
2006 73.8 73.80 4.3014 0.5473 1.2171
2007 109.0 67.70 4.2151 0.4418 1.2126
2008 67.7 43.00 3.7612 0.0617 0.3740
2009 79.0 42.50 3.7495 0.0574 0.3536

histograma de los y

1.4000

1.2000

1.0000

0.8000

0.6000

0.4000

0.2000

-
- 1.0000 2.0000 3.0000 4.0000 5.0000
y = ln x
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
PRECIPITACION MAX. 24h (mm)
AO P(mm) Q ORD. y = ln (x-a) F(x) f(x)
2001 75.0 109 11.51401 0.94047 531.07611
2002 101.0 101 11.51393 0.88498 870.82237
2003 77.0 79 11.51372 0.58483 1,748.97216
2004 43.0 77.0 11.51370 0.54958 1,775.74032
2005 42.5 75.0 11.51368 0.51395 1,788.48726
2006 73.8 73.8 11.51366 0.49249 1,789.26358
2007 109.0 67.7 11.51360 0.38504 1,714.75636
2008 67.7 43 11.51336 0.08081 671.97750
2009 79.0 42.5 11.51335 0.07750 651.05498

LN3; C.A.=0

2,000.00000

1,800.00000

1,600.00000

1,400.00000

1,200.00000

1,000.00000

800.00000

600.00000

400.00000

200.00000

-
11.51330 11.51340 11.51350 11.51360 11.51370 11.51380 11.51390 11.51400 11.51410

Tr Pno-exc Z Y X
200 0.995 2.575829304 11.51 131.70
100 0.99 2.326347874 11.51 126.13
50 0.98 2.053748911 11.51 120.05
25 0.96 1.750686071 11.51 113.28
10 0.90 1.281551566 11.51 102.81
5 0.80 0.841621234 11.51 93.00
3 0.67 0.430727299 11.51 83.83
2 0.50 0 11.51 74.22
MEDIA 11.5137
DESV.EST. 0.0002
a (100,000.0000)
Si quiero conocer la precipitacin Tr =
C.ASIMETRIA -1.84E-02
sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =


--> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

z = f ( Pexc =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

z= 2.326347874

y=m+z s
y= 11.5142
x= 126.13
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

er la precipitacin Tr = 100 aos, sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

= 1 / P exc --> Pexc = 1 / 100 = 0.01


--> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99
0.01
0.99 z = f ( Pexc =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

TR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99) z = 2.32634787

y=m+z s

y= 11.5142
mm
y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x - a = 100126.132

x= 126.1
dal para Tr = 100 aos,

M.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

100128.6320721

0.3737752569
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
PRECIPITACION MAX. 24h (mm)
Var. Reducida
AO P(mm) P ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a Tr
2001 75.0 164.1 2.16 9.19
2002 101.0 141.8 1.63 5.64
2003 77.0 129.5 1.34 4.35
2004 43.0 83.5 0.26 1.86
2005 42.5 70.1 (0.06) 1.53
2006 73.8 65.8 (0.16) 1.45
2007 109.0 65.0 (0.18) 1.44
2008 67.7 61.0 (0.27) 1.37
2009 79.0 60.5 (0.28) 1.36

x medio 93.49 0.4952


desv. Est x (Sx) 40.28 0.9496

n = nmero de datos 9
yn medio = 0.4952
Sn = 0.9496

parmetros, segn n
a = Sx / Sn = 42.42
u = x-yn*a= 72.49

180.0
160.0 f(x) = 54.8102700665 ln(x) + 45.851580035
Q (m3/s))

R = 0.9965496425
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1.00 10.00
Tr (AOS)

Tr y X=U+ay
2 0.3665 88.03
3 0.9027 110.78
5 1.4999 136.11
10 2.2504 167.94
20 2.9702 198.47
25 3.1985 208.16
50 3.9019 238.00
100 4.6001 267.61
200 5.2958 297.12
P exc = F (x > X)
e y 1 xu
F (x X ) 1 e y=
Tr a
VALORES GUMBEL

Media reducida Yn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598
100 0.5600

Desviacin tipica reducida Sn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055
100 1.2065
9
0.5220
0.5353
0.5430
0.5481
0.5518
0.5545
0.5567
0.5585
0.5599

9
1.0565
1.1086
1.3880
1.1590
1.1734
1.1844
1.1930
1.2001
1.2060
PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE

Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D


DATOS Emprica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel
1 75.0 0.100 0.060 0.094 0.060 0.109 0.04049 0.00607 0.04047 0.00886
2 101.0 0.200 0.115 0.139 0.115 0.177 0.08499 0.06053 0.08498 0.02268
3 77.0 0.300 0.415 0.371 0.415 0.230 0.11521 0.07148 0.11517 0.07028
4 43.0 0.400 0.450 0.402 0.450 0.537 0.05045 0.00162 0.05042 0.13749
5 42.5 0.500 0.486 0.433 0.486 0.652 0.01391 0.06683 0.01395 0.15237
6 73.8 0.600 0.508 0.453 0.508 0.690 0.09245 0.14726 0.09249 0.08982
7 109.0 0.700 0.615 0.558 0.615 0.696 0.08501 0.14184 0.08504 0.00371
8 67.7 0.800 0.919 0.938 0.919 0.731 0.11917 0.13831 0.11919 0.06943
9 79.0 0.900 0.922 0.943 0.922 0.734 0.02248 0.04257 0.02250 0.16570

0.11917 0.14726 0.11919 0.16570


Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada
0.4533

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