Pakistan's relationship with Afghanistan (all aspects)

Afghanistan is often termed as a 'Black hole' in international politics: Afghanistan 'sucks in'. Afghanistan
sucks in both countries and ideologies. Countries in the sense that Afghanistan has shown an uncanny
knack of rearranging map of the world by making superpowers vanish and smaller states emerge.
Ideology in the sense that Afghanistan has shown an ability to discourage one school of thought at the
cost of another, for instance, in the recent history, Afghanistan discouraged Communism but spared
Capitalism. Currently, the surplus superpower, the US, and its attendant ideology, Capitalism, are trying
to avert the repeat of history at the hands of Afghanistan. During the medieval ages, the invaders either
passed through Afghanistan or originated from Afghanistan to conquer the Indian Subcontinent. During
the scientific enlightened age of 17th and 18th century, Afghanistan served as a buffer state in the Great
Game played between the Communist and Capitalist blocs.
The war waged by the US in 2001, in the name of War on Terror (WoT), is still ravaging the already
devastated Afghanistan and yet no conclusive end is discernible.
The war waged by the US in 2001, in the name of War on Terror (WoT), is still ravaging the already
devastated Afghanistan and yet no conclusive end is discernible.

Since November 2008, there have taken place three developments. First, the US President Barack
Obama, after getting elected, is intending a withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan (in a
manner that could be offering the US maximum face-saving and could yield monopoly to the US in the
region). Secondly, with the tacit approval of the US, the Afghan President Hamid Karzai is holding talks
with the Taliban to join the government and offer the US a safe exit-strategy. Thirdly, the US has formally
acknowledged that Pakistan may play a significant role in mitigating a near-disaster situation in
Afghanistan. That is how, Pakistan's political importance vis--vis other regional players including India is
automatically enhanced manifolds.

Pakistan's dilemmas
Geographically, Pakistan is sandwiched between India and Afghanistan. One is world's largest
democracy and an expanding economy, whereas the other is world's crisis-ridden (both political and
social) country and a shattered economy. The second aspect of the dilemma is that India is bent on
having strong relations with Afghanistan and that to the detriment of Pakistan.

Significance of Afghanistan in Pakistan's foreign policy

As a neighbour of Pakistan, Afghanistan occupies a central place in the issues affecting the foreign policy
of Pakistan. The significance of Afghanistan increases with the ongoing turmoil on its land (having
potential of spilling over to the adjacent countries) and the new Great Game being played in the region.
Pakistan finds itself intractably linked with the whole issue the effects of which may have far-reaching
bearings on Pakistan. Secondly, owing to its geographical contiguity and ethnic sharing with Afghanistan,
Pakistan considers itself a natural player in the whole scheme of affairs related to or going on in
Afghanistan. Thirdly, owing to hosting the major chunk of Afghan refugees, Pakistan is a major
stakeholder in whatever situation emerges in Afghanistan. Fourthly, the ongoing WoT is affecting
Pakistan both politically and economically thereby making Pakistan a major regional player in settling the
terror situation both in Pakistan and across the western border. Fifthly, Pakistan is keen to shun the
ideology of Islamic fundamentalism being exported from Afghanistan to Pakistan thereby making Pakistan
conscious of preservation of its democratic values. Sixthly, Pakistan is keen to make its society free of
drugs and arms which is not possible unless there is peace and order in Afghanistan.
The dilemma is that India is bent on having strong relations with Afghanistan and that to the detriment of
Pakistan.
Afghanistan's Brief Country Profile
Neighbours & Borders

Pakistan 2430 km
Tajikistan 1206 km
Iran 936 km
Turkmenistan 744 km
 Uzbekistan 137 km
China 76 km

Analysis: Afghanistan shares its longest border with Pakistan followed by Tajikistan, Iran, Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan. The border of Afghanistan with China is the shortest one. Interestingly, that is how
Tajikistan, Iran, Turkme-nistan and Uzbekistan together are a contending unit against Pakistan for
supremacy of their relevant ethnic groups in Afghanistan.
Ethnic Groups
Pashtun 42%
Tajik 27%
Hazara 9%
Uzbek 9%
Aimak 4%
Turkmen 3%
Baloch 2%
Others 4%

Analysis: The Pushtuns are the major ethnic group followed by the Tajiks. Denying due representation to
the Pushtuns in the current governmental set-up in Kabul is a major source of trouble both for Hamid
Karzai, the President, and the US, the mentor. If the Pushtuns had been given due representation at the
centre, the US and its allies would not have seeking today the face-saving and an honourable exit
strategy. Now, the US has realized importance of speaking to and coming to terms with the Pushtuns
whether they are the Taliban or not.

Religion
Sunnis 84%
Shiites 15%
Others 1%

Analysis: The followers of the Sunni sect of Islam are in majority in Afghanistan but the Shia sect of Islam
also constitutes 15%. Both the ethnic and sectarian distributions call for a democratic (and representative)
government in Kabul.
Languages
Afghan-Persian (Dari) 50%
Pashto 35%
Turkic Languages 11%
30 minor languages 4%

Analysis: Dari is spoken by the majority of Afghans irrespective of their ethnic or sectarian affiliations
thereby giving the language a cross-ethnic dimension. The language aspect further diversifies the
Afghans transcending their ethnic and sectarian associations.

Geo-strategic significance of Afghanistan

Direct
Afghanistan is located at the junction of three strategic regions of South Asia, Central Asia, and West
Asia.
Sparse population, rugged terrain, and worrier tribes make Afghanistan a dumping ground of
superpowers of their times.

Indirect
Afghanistan is also called a region at the crossroads of history. That is, in the 21st Century, Afghanistan
is still keen to practise the medieval age customs and traditions.
A potential land-bridge for oil and gas pipelines and trade route to and from Central Asia and West
Asia.
The landlocked nature of Central Asian offers Afghanistan significance of a transit-trade route to have
access to the sea ports of Indian and Arabian seas.

Interests of Foreign Powers in the affairs of Afghanistan

US interests
Energy resources of Central Asia
Containing China and Iran
Countering Russian influence in the region
Checking the outflow of narcotics
Checking the export of religi-ous extremism
Closely monitoring the cooperative framework between China, Russia, Iran, CARs, India, and Pakistan
Establish a broad-based, moderate and US-friendly government in Afghanistan

Russian interests
Reasserting itself in its backyard and avenge its defeat (i.e. collapse of the former USSR)
Countering the US control and regional designs
Securing a control over gas and oil resources of CARs
Preventing spread of Islamic extremism to Chechnya

Chinese interests
Future energy requirements and possible supplies demand from Central Asia and West Asia including
Iran
Halting the unrest in adjoining Chinese territories (owing to the spill over effect)
Neutralizing the presence of US/NATO forces in the region

Indian interests
Creating friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan to keep the former under pressure
Instigating a covert low-intensity conflict (LIC) against Pakistan to keep Pakistan busy with the
conflicting coming from the western border
Exploring the trade opportunities with the countries of Central and West Asia
Watching its geo-strategic interests through empowerment of the Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras against
the Pushtuns.

Iranian interests
Neutralizing the effects of the presence of US/NATO forces
Safeguarding the minority Shia population residing in Afghanistan
Securing its share in the reconstruction of Afghanistan
Reversing the tide of Afghan refugees

Pakistan's interests
Political interests:
Ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan
Supporting Pakistan-friendly gove-rnment in Kabul

Neutralizing the Indian influence

Settling the border issues
Reversing the tide of Afghan refugees

Economic interests:
Securing its share in reconstruction of Afghanistan
Securing a transit trade access to the CARs
Securing an uninterrupted supply of Gas and Oil from the CARs and Iran

Security interests:
Precluding Talibanisation in Afghanistan (and thereby Taliban-isation in Pakistan)
Preventing cross-border terrorism
Prompting departure of the US/ NATO forces from Afghanistan.