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Term#3_Group #2
Submitted by
Abhijit DCruz (1611227)
Akansha Chauhan (1611232)
Asis Pal (1611236)
Kausik Tamuli (1611253)
Navdha Khera (1611264)
Yamini Agarwal (1611293)
Table of Contents:
1. Introduction
1.1 USA and Globalization
2. An analysis of the US election
3. What is the Real reason behind Trumps victory?
3.1 The revolt against elite and globalization
3.2 Education, changing nature of employment and the Trump factor
3.3 Hillary Clinton, the other option in place of Trump
4. Is Trump an isolated event?
4.1 France
4.2 Brexit
4.3 Myanmar
5. Is this a New World Order?
5.1 Rise of nationalism across Europe
5.2 Increasing rate at which Physical Barriers are built
5.3 Schengen Agreement
5.4 Breach of Dublin Regulation
6. Conclusion
References
1. Introduction:
US president Donald Trump, who took over as the 45 th president of the United States won
the US elections through campaigns that attracted large supports as well as controversies.
Some of his campaigning issues like immigrations, trade agreements, the blue-collared
workers, off-shoring of American jobs etc. are said to be the concerns of the huge American
population. While many had written him down for Mr. Trumps political incorrectness, people
elected him not despite but because of him being blunt about the issues he made in his
speeches. Hence, we in this project analysed the last US election though the lens of the people
residing in the US. While an election outcome can be the result of concerns, dissent, policy
action, policy inactions, charisma of a leader etc., we in our project have limited ourselves by
studying the issues keeping globalization at the centre while at the same time we tried to find
out if other issues has their causes rooted in the adverse effects of globalization. We tried to
analyse the perspective, dissent, opportunities, securities/insecurities etc. of the Americans
and tried to find out if similar patterns are observed elsewhere in the world. We also tried to
find if such concerns of the people were restricted to themselves or are they responded by
governments across the world.
Globalization until the 20th Century was something which almost all nations looked forward
to and was a phenomenon which was applauded for making the world more efficient, bringing
everyone closer and reducing poverty. The great American success story, the stark difference
between the two sides of the Berlin wall which was evident after its fall [1], the success of the
European Union and the international organisations like the IMF, World Bank etc, all
advocated for free movement of people and a liberal regime. But there was people on the
other end of the spectrum like Joseph Stiglitz and Ha-Joo, who argue that Globalisation has
only benefitted the rich by making them further richer and thus widening the income divide.
Even the IMF has mentioned that due to the introduction of new technology and foreign
investment in developing countries led to increasing levels of inequality. [2]
On the light of the ongoing debate that whether globalisation is good or bad for the world
economy and for the individual countries we looked at some of its pros and cons. As far as
advantages of globalisation are concerned it provides an efficient way of procuring good and
services procuring from the global market hence increasing the market size, leveraging the
economies of scale to provide cheap goods and services, enhancing the prospects of
development through easy mobility of factors of production like capital and labour, enhancing
the capability and competitiveness of the domestic economy by accessing and learning the
technology and business of the more advanced economies. As far as the adverse effects are
concerned, globalization actually hasnt allowed many domestic companies to grow,
production base has been shifted to those countries whose environmental standards are less
stringent thereby adversely impacting the environment, loss of job for the home population,
increasing evidence of income inequality and intense tax competition reducing the tax
earnings of a country which has worsened the debt structure of many economies (both
developed and developing). [3][4]
1.1 USA and Globalization:
Since the 19th century there was huge wave of immigration into the US. Historian Norman
Lowe in his book, Modern World History mentions that over 30 million of people migrated
to the US between 1860 to 1930. He mentions that US population would have been 12% lower
in 1930 if the migration didnt happen. [5] US needed more people and capital to make the
most out of the resources available to the country and to grow at a rate which would make
its economy by far the largest in the world. It was estimated that in 1920 the US GDP would
have been 14% lower had it not kept its border open.[5] Hence, the economy speed up, along
with the increase of population and more importantly it was composed of a remarkable
mixture of nationalities, cultures and religions of the world. However, each new wave of
immigration was treated with contempt and hostility by the earlier migrants who feared loss
of job. [5] Since then until the 1990s there has been gradual migration of people across the
world to the US and it transformed as a global economy. But with fast development of the
tertiary sector and acceptance of globalization as a norm by many more countries of the
world, more and more jobs from the US was outsourced to the developing economies and
the American companies employed people from developing countries who provide cheap
labour in their secondary sectors as well. This helped the large American corporations and
other MNCs operating in the US and elsewhere in the world to stay competitive by providing
cheap commodity. This global commodity chain which is a result of globalization has enabled
the large companies to enjoy huge profits as countries struggle to underbid each other on
wages and regulations. [6]
The story of Donald Trumps stunning victory sent shock waves across the world. He won the
white working class by an unforeseen and huge margin. He also managed to have
unpredictable majority of the college-educated whites. Quite interestingly, he was able to
turn heavy white areas of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who had voted for
Obama in the previous elections. Exit polls suggest that white voters constituted 70% of all
voters and out of them 58% had voted for Trump [15].
One might think that the reason is economic, and the working class voters were dissatisfied
with the on-going job losses because of globalization [17]. Brad Heaths analysis in USA Today
found that Hillary Clinton got pulverized in the states where unemployment had decreased in
the last years of Obamas governance. But the idea that Trump won because of the self-
interestedness of the working class who overlooked his misogyny and racism might be an
oversimplification because more than half the voters earning less than $50,000 did vote for
Hillary Clinton [15].
Trump won anyway. But the question that comes to mind is how and why?
32
27
22
17
12
7
2
-31990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
US Germany UK Saudi ARABIA Australia Spain
Fig 7
30% % change of Immigrants in different countries
25%
20%
% change in immigrants
15%
10%
5%
0%
1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2015
Between Years
-5% US Germany Saudi Aribia Uk australia spain
Fig 8
It is evident from the two charts that the rate of inflow of people to the countries which
initially had most immigrants is declining. Baring Saudi Arabia these are all the first world
countries. Probably this trends and events parallel to the US happening across various parts
of the world indicates that globalization is not something all people are looking forward to,
least if not against it.
References:
[1] Modern World History by Norman Lowe, 5th Edition; Chapter 10 : Th two Europes,
East and West since 1945, Section 10.6 (e), Page: 209-210
[2] http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/81/trade/costs-and-benefits-of-globalisation/
[3] http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/economic-history-1
[4] http://occupytheory.org/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-globalization/
[5] Modern World History by Norman Lowe, 5th Edition; Chapter 22: Th USA before the
Second World War, Section 22.2 (a) and Section 22.2 (b), Page: 474-475
[6] http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/a-foreign-policy-of-cruel-
populism/article17350132.ece
[7] "2016 November General Election Turnout Rates". www.electproject.org.
Retrieved December 17, 2016.
"A Historic Number of Electors Defected, and Most Were Supposed to Vote for Clinton". The
New York Times. Associated Press. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
"Official 2016 Presidential General Election Results" (PDF). Federal Election Commission.
January 30, 2017. Retrieved March 13, 2017
[8] http://www.businessinsider.in/7-charts-show-who-propelled-Trump-to-victory/While-
polling-before-Election-Day-showed-voters-with-less-education-were-flocking-to-Trump-
which-shows-in-the-exit-polls-he-still-saw-a-good-amount-of-support-from-voters-with-
higher-education-/slideshow/55363369.cms
[9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Florida
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio
Amish Studies: "Population Change 20102015" Archived March 4, 2016, at the Wayback
Machine.
[11] http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/pennsylvania-population/
[12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan
[13] Historical Census Statistics on Population Totals By Race, 1790 to 1990, and By Hispanic
Origin, 1970 to 1990, For The United States, Regions, Divisions, and States
[14] Population of Michigan: Census 2010 and 2000 Interactive Map, Demographics,
Statistics, Quick Facts
[15]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/president-donald-trump-why-
people-voted-for-republican-wins-us-election-2016-a7407541.html
[16] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-huge-reasons-donald-trump-won-2016-11-09
[17] http://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/9/13572174/president-elect-donald-trump-2016-
victory-racism-xenophobia
[18] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOyma_8dFm0
[19] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uJCLgCpm-8
[20] https://www.telegraphindia.com/1151207/jsp/opinion/story_57017.jsp#.WNJRjlWGPIX
[21] http://time.com/4566748/hillary-clinton-firewall-women/
[22]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-charles/im-a-republican-heres-
why_b_11849402.html
[23] http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/donald-trump-president-us-election-results-
hillary-clinton-4366857/
[24] https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/french_challenge_chapter.pdf
[25] http://www.iatp.org/files/Seattle_Debacle_Revolt_of_the_Developing_Natio.htm
[26] http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/735339/Jack-Rasmus-Donald-Trump-Marine-Le-Pen-
French-election-president-Hollande-Sarkozy-Brexit
[27] http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/15/politics/marine-le-pen-interview-donald-trump/
[28] https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/07/05/3-reasons-brits-voted-for-
brexit/#accdcd31f9d6
[29] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/08/was-brexit-a-vote-against-globalization
[30] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-the-results-compare-to-
the-uks-educated-old-an/
[31] http://indianexpress.com/article/research/rohingya-muslim-crisis-in-myanmar-the-warning-
signs-of-a-possible-genocide-4460254/
[32] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/23/rohingya-muslims-myanmar-aung-
san-suu-kyi-election
[33] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/donald-trump-wall-
mexico/483156/
[34] http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:180:0031:0059:EN:PDF
[35] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Regulation
[36] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3200641/Dealing-migrants-bigger-challenge-Europe-
Greek-debt-crisis-warns-Angela-Merkel-says-attacks-refugees-unworthy-Germany.html
[37] http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/05/17/global-migrant-stocks/?country=ES&date=2015