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Hydrology
Hydrology is the study of the movement, distribution, and quality of water on Earth and other
planets, including the hydrologic cycle, water resources and environmental watershed
basin management and water quality, where water plays the central role. Oceanography and
meteorology are not included because water is only one of many important aspects within
those fields.
The term hydrology is from Greek: , hydr, "water"; and , logos, "study"
History of hydrology
Hydrology has been a subject of investigation and engineering for millennia. For example, about
4000 B.C. the Nile was dammed to improve agricultural productivity of previously barren lands.
Mesopotamian towns were protected from flooding with high earthen walls. Aqueducts were
built by the Greeks and Ancient Romans, while the history of China shows they built irrigation
and flood control works. The ancient Sinhalese used hydrology to build complex irrigation
works in Sri Lanka, also known for invention of the Valve Pit which allowed construction of large
Marcus Vitruvius, in the first century B.C., described a philosophical theory of the hydrologic
cycle, in which precipitation falling in the mountains infiltrated the Earth's surface and led to
streams and springs in the lowlands. With adoption of a more scientific approach, Leonardo da
Vinci and Bernard Palissy independently reached an accurate representation of the hydrologic
cycle. It was not until the 17th century that hydrologic variables began to be quantified.
Pioneers of the modern science of hydrology include Pierre Perrault, Edme Mariotte and
Edmund Halley. By measuring rainfall, runoff, and drainage area, Perrault showed that rainfall
was sufficient to account for flow of the Seine. Marriotte combined velocity and river cross-
section measurements to obtain discharge, again in the Seine. Halley showed that the
evaporation from the Mediterranean Sea was sufficient to account for the outflow of rivers
Daniel Bernoulli, the Pitot tube. The 19th century saw development in groundwater hydrology,
including Darcy's law, the Dupuit-Thiem well formula, and Hagen-Poiseuille's capillary flow
equation.
Rational analyses began to replace empiricism in the 20th century, while governmental
agencies began their own hydrological research programs. Of particular importance were Leroy
Sherman's unit hydrograph, the infiltration theory of Robert E. Horton, and C.V. Theis's Aquifer
Since the 1950s, hydrology has been approached with a more theoretical basis than in the past,
The central theme of hydrology is that water circulates throughout the Earth through different
pathways and at different rates. The most vivid image of this is in the evaporation of water
from the ocean, which forms clouds. These clouds drift over the land and produce rain. The
rainwater flows into lakes, rivers, or aquifers. The water in lakes, rivers, and aquifers then either
evaporates back to the atmosphere or eventually flows back to the ocean, completing a cycle.
Water changes its state of being several times throughout this cycle.
[edit] Overview
Ecohydrology is the study of interactions between organisms and the hydrologic cycle.
applications.
Hydrometeorology is the study of the transfer of water and energy between land and water
Surface hydrology is the study of hydrologic processes that operate at or near Earth's surface.
Drainage basin management covers water-storage, in the form of reservoirs, and flood-
protection.
Water quality includes the chemistry of water in rivers and lakes, both of pollutants and natural
solutes.
Oceanography is the more general study of water in the oceans and estuaries.
Meteorology is the more general study of the atmosphere and of weather, including
Limnology is the study of lakes. It covers the biological, chemical, physical, geological, and other
attributes of all inland waters (running and standing waters, both fresh and saline, natural or
man-made).[citation needed]
Designing bridges.
Assessing the impacts of natural and anthropogenic environmental change on water resources.
Measurement is fundamental for assessing water resources and understanding the processes
involved in the hydrologic cycle. Because the hydrologic cycle is so diverse, hydrologic
science, geology, geophysics and limnology, to name a few. Here, hydrologic measurement
briefly with a practical discussion of the methods used to date and a bibliography of
background information.
Flow direction
Piezometer - groundwater pressure and, by inference, groundwater depth (see: aquifer test)
Geophysical methods
Infiltration
Infiltrometer - infiltration
Soil moisture
Solute sampling
Geophysical methods
Chemical transport
Stream-aquifer exchange
Precipitation
Radar - cloud properties, rain rate estimation, hail and snow detection
Satellite - rainy area identification, rain rate estimation, land-cover/land-use, soil moisture
Evaporation
Transpiration
Natural ecosystems
Agronomic ecosystems
Momentum
Heat flux
Energy budgets
Uncertainty analyses
Airborne Sensors
Satellite sensors
Water quality
[citation needed]
Sample collection
In-situ methods
Budget analyses
Parameter estimation
Data assimilation
Observations of hydrologic processes are used to make predictions of the future behaviour of
hydrologic systems (water flow, water quality). One of the major current concerns in hydrologic
research is "Prediction in Ungauged Basins" (PUB), i.e. in basins where no or only very few data
exist.
By analysing the statistical properties of hydrologic records, such as rainfall or river flow,
hydrologists can estimate future hydrologic phenomena, assuming the characteristics of the
processes remain unchanged. When making assessments of how often relatively rare events
will occur, analyses are made in terms of the return period of such events. Other quantities of
These estimates are important for engineers and economists so that proper risk analysis can be
performed to influence investment decisions in future infrastructure and to determine the yield
operating rules for large dams forming part of systems which include agricultural, industrial and
residential demands.
They are primarily used for hydrological prediction and for understanding hydrological
Models based on data. These models are black box systems, using mathematical and statistical
concepts to link a certain input (for instance rainfall) to the model output (for instance runoff).
Commonly used techniques are regression, transfer functions, and system identification. The
simplest of these models may be linear models, but it is common to deploy non-linear
deeply into the real physical processes involved. An example of such an aspect is the well-
known behaviour that a catchment will respond much more quickly and strongly when it is
Models based on process descriptions. These models try to represent the physical processes
observed in the real world. Typically, such models contain representations of surface runoff,
subsurface flow, evapotranspiration, and channel flow, but they can be far more complicated.
These models are known as deterministic hydrology models. Deterministic hydrology models
Recent research in hydrological modeling tries to have a more global approach to the
understanding of the behaviour of hydrologic systems to make better predictions and to face
Water movement is a significant means by which other material, such as soil or pollutants, are
transported from place to place. Initial input to receiving waters may arise from a point source
discharge or a line source or area source, such as surface runoff. Since the 1960s rather
complex mathematical models have been developed, facilitated by the availability of high
speed computers. The most common pollutant classes analyzed are nutrients, pesticides, total
Aquatic chemistry
Civil engineering
Climatology
Environmental engineering
Geomorphology
Hydrography
Hydraulic engineering, a sub-discipline of civil engineering concerned with the flow and
Physical geography
Hydropower
Hydrology (agriculture)
WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning) software to model catchment hydrology from climate
A water budget comprised of the components of the hydrologic cycle can be formulated. It is
an accounting of the inflow, outflow and storage of water in a designated hydrologic system.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated the hydrologic budget for the
coterminous United States. About 40,000 billion gallons per day (bgd) of water passes over the
nation as vapor. Of this amount, about 4,200 bgd (roughly 30 in. or 76 cm per year) falls to the
earth as precipitation. About two-thirds of this amount (2,750 bgd) is returned to the
consumptive use. Of the 1,450 bgd that could potentially be used, only about 675 bgd is
5
considered to be available in 95 out of 100 years.
The development of an equation for the water budget is straightforward. For a designated time
period, it provides for balancing the gains and losses of water with the quantities of water
The variables in the water budget equation are: precipitation P, Runoff R, Interception I,
change in storage, a hydrologic budget can be derived. Inflows to the region are denoted as
positive quantities and outflows as negative ones. Subscripts s and g indicate surface and
P + R1 - R2 + Rg - Es - Ts - I = Ss
where precipitation, surface-water inflow, and groundwater appearing as surface water (Rg) are
inflows; surface-water outflow, evaporation, and infiltration are outflows; and all variables are
I + G1 - G2 - Rg - Eg - Tg = Ss
where infiltration and groundwater inflow are inflows; groundwater outflow, groundwater
appearing as surface water, evaporation, and transpiration are outflows. The combined
hydrologic budget for a region is derived by summing the two previous equations:
P - (R2 - R1) - (Es + Eg) - (Ts + Tg) - (G2 - G1) = (Ss + Sg)
If the subscripts are dropped and the quantities in parentheses are taken as net changes, the
P - R - E - T - G = S
This is the fundamental equation of hydrology. It is the basis for all hydrologic modeling.
Various applications of this important equation are referred to in later chapters. One of its uses
region when estimates of other variables in the equation can be reasonably made. For
groundwater system boundaries often follow surface-water divides. In cases where this
assumption can be considered valid, the groundwater flux into and out of the region can be
assumed equal to zero (G = 0). In addition, over a long period of time (usually five or more
years), seasonal excesses and deficits in storage often tend to balance out in large watersheds,
and in such cases the average condition for S may sometimes be assumed to be equal to zero.
P - R - ET = 0
To solve the hydrologic budget equation in terms of any one of its variables, reasonable
estimates of the other variables must be made. But this is not always possible or easily done.
When data are lacking on variables of concern, simplifying assumptions can sometimes be
SOIL-WATER BUDGET
Basin-averaged values of "surplus" water were estimated for 167 sub-basins of the Niger River
basin for two scenarios: long term average climatic conditions and conditions during a historical
period (short term) representative of dry conditions, July 1983 to Dec. 1990. The phrases long
term and short term will be used throughout the remainder of this document to refer to these
two cases. Surplus is water which does not evaporate or remain in soil storage and includes
Part I of this report to FAO/UNESCO describes the methodolgy and results for soil-water
budgeting. Part II provides a technical description of how computations were made and
includes a list of files and programs and there locations on the project CD-ROM. Part II has not
been converted to HTML and has not been placed on our HTTP server because the tedious
details are not expected to be of general interest (contact the author if you would like more
details). A budgeting exercise created for the GIS in Water Resources class is available for those
Despite numerous uncertainties associated with simple soil-water budget model like the one
used in this study, many researchers have applied this type of model to problems ranging from
catchment scale studies to the global water balance and climate change scenerios
(Thornthwaite, 1948; Budyko, 1956; Manabe, 1969; Mather, 1978; Alley, 1984; Willmott et al.,
1985; Mintz and Walker, 1993; Mintz and Serafini, 1992). The popularity of this approach in
hydrologic studies is most likely due to its simplicity. The simple bucket model used here
requires minimal input data : precipitation, temperature, net-radiation, and soil-water holding
capacity. For catchment scale applications, the soil-water budget approach for predicting runoff
has shown reasonable agreement with measured annual flows, but has not shown good
agreement with monthly flows (Mather, 1978). Although the soil-water budget roughly
accounts for the soil storage effects on the time distribution of surface and sub-surface runoff,
For the Niger Basin project, a surface water routing model takes computed surplus as input and
optimizes overland flow and streamflow loss parameters to predict monthly flows. For more
information about the surface water routing model, link to Ye's Map-based Surface Water
Modeling page.
Three difficult questions involved with simple soil-water budget calculations that are discussed
to in this document are how to deal with situations when inadequate daily data are available
and only monthly data can be used, how to derive spatially distributed estimates of climatic
variables from point calculations, and how to estimate potential evaporation. Section IIc
discusses time stepping (daily vs. monthly). Section V describes an approach for generating
climate surfaces from point data and explores the sensitivity of water surplus calculations to
two methods of estimating potential evaporation. Sections I-IV provide background material
and a detailed description of the soil-water budget methodology. Sections VI briefly describes
results.
hydrologists have often resorted to simple bucket models and budgeting schemes to model
near-surface hydrology. The soil-water budget is a simple accounting scheme used to predict
soil-water storage, evaporation, and water surplus. A typical budgeting time step is one day.
Surplus is the fraction of precipitation that exceeds potential evapotranspiration and is not
stored in the soil. The simple model used here does not distinguish between surface and
subsurface runoff, so surplus includes both. For the Niger project, the main purpose of
calculating the water budget is to estimate surplus, which serves as input to groundwater and
surface water flow models. With this in mind, the basic equation for calculating surplus is:
(1)
Horizontal motion of water on the land surface or in the soil is not considered by this model.
Snow melt was ignored in the water budget computations for this study because temperatures
throughout the study region remain above freezing throughout the year.
available water-holding capacity of the soil, and a moisture extraction function. The concepts of
water-holding capacity and the method for evaluating Equation 1 are discussed here, followed
A. WATER-HOLDING CAPACITY
In order to calculate the soil-water budget, an estimate of the soil's ability to store water is
required. Several terms are used by soil scientists to define the water storage capacities of soils
under different conditions. The field capacity or drained upper limit is defined as the water
content of a soil that has reached equilibrium with gravity after several days of drainage. The
field capacity is a function of soil texture and organic content. The permanent wilting point or
lower limit of available water is defined as the water content at which plants can no longer
extract a health sustaining quantity of water from the soil and begin to wilt. Typical suction
values associated with the field capacity and wilting point are -10 kPa (-0.1 bars) and -1500 kPa
(-15 bars) respectively. Like water content, field capacity and permanent wilting point are
defined on a volume of water per volume of soil basis. Given these two definitions, the water
defined as the field capacity minus the permanent wilting point. Table 1 gives some typical
For budgeting calculations, it is useful to know the total available water-holding capacity in a
soil profile. This value is typically expressed in mm and can be obtained by integrating the
available water-holding capacity over the effective depth of the soil layer. A one meter soil
layer with a uniform available water-holding capacity of 0.15 has a total available water-holding
capacity of 150 mm. For the remainder of this paper, the term water-holding capacity means
total available water-holding capacity in units of mm. Soil-water storage (mm) is denoted by w
and water-holding capacity is denoted with w*. A large water-holding capacity implies a large
annual evapotranspiration and small annual runoff relative to a small water-holding capacity
To estimate the actual evapotranspiration in the soil-water budget method many investigators
relates the actual rate of evapotranspiration to the potential rate of evapotranspiration based
on some function of the current soil moisture content and moisture retention properties of the
soil.
E = beta * PE (2)
Dyck, 1983, Table 1, (reprinted in Shuttleworth, 1993, Table 4.4.6) provides a summary of some
moisture extraction functions used by different investigators. Mintz and Walker, 1993, Figure 5,
also illustrates several moisture extraction functions. Many researchers agree that soils show
the general pattern of behavior that moisture is extracted from the soil at the potential rate
until some critical moisture content is reached when evapotranspiration is not longer
controlled by meteorological conditions. Below this critical point, there is a linear decline in soil
moisture extraction until the wilting point is reached. This type of behavior is illustrated by
Shuttleworth, 1993, Figure 4.4.3 p. 4.46 and Dingman, 1994, Figure 7-21. Shuttleworth, 1993,
notes that the critical moisture content divided by the field capacity is typically between 0.5
and 0.8. The type of moisture extraction function just described is commonly applied to daily
potential evaporation values. A simpler function, beta = w/w*, has been applied to monthly
values.
There are several drawbacks to using simple soil moisture extraction functions. Mintz and
Walker, 1993, cite field studies that show beta may vary with potential evapotranspiration for a
given soil wetness and beta may also vary with leaf-area index. In addition, the spatial variation
correlate beta with satellite-derived indices of vegetation activity so that beta will reflect plant
growth stage and the spatial vegetation patterns. Gutman and Rukhovetz, 1996, investigate this
Soil-water budget calculations are commonly made using monthly or daily rainfall totals
because of the way data are recorded. Computing the water balance on a monthly basis
involves the unrealistic assumption that rain falls at constant low intensity throughout the
month, and consequently surplus estimates made using monthly values are typically lower than
those made using daily values. Particularly in dry locations, the mean potential evaporation for
a given month may be higer than the mean precipitation, yet there is observed runoff, and
budgeting with monthly values may yield zero surplus. For this reason, the use of daily values is
preferred over monthly values when feasible. In this study, daily rainfall records were provided
by FAO for a number of stations in the Niger basin; however, the spatial coverage of these
stations is sparse in some areas, and it is difficult to interpolate daily rainfall over space.
Because of the difficulty in estimating daily rainfall at our regularly spaced computational
points, and because a consistent basis for comparison is needed between the short term case
(for which daily data are available) and the long term case (only monthly data are available),
monthly data were used in this study. However, the use of monthly data does not yield enough
surplus to match observed river flows in some areas of the Niger basin even with the
assumption of zero overland flow and stream losses. To resolve this problem, a modification
was made to the commonly used bucket model in which it is typically assumed that no surplus
is generated until the soil is completely saturated with water; this assumption is not consistent
with situations where the rainfall rate exceeds the infiltration rate of the soil. In our modified
model, a fraction of the precipitation is extracted and declared runoff, before remaining
precipitation is passed to the soil. This extraction of precipitation is represented by the P*alpha
term in Equation 3 below. This scheme generates more runoff, enough to satisfy mass balance
constraints in most areas of the Niger basin. Without this term, the model will predict zero
runoff during many months of the year when some observed streamflow actually occurs. The
runoff extraction term roughly accounts for "event" or "quick" flow that cannot be modeled
(3)Wi=Wi-1+P-Pi-1-PEi-1
In Equation 3, w(i) is the current soil moisture, w(i-1) is the soil moisture in the previous time
step, P is precipitation, PE is potential evaporation, alpha is the runoff extraction function, and
beta is the soil-moisture extraction function. With monthly data, computations are made on a
quasi-daily basis by assuming that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for a given
day are equal to their respective monthly values divided by the number of days in the current
month. Several conditions apply when evaluating Equation 3: If w(i) drops below zero, then set
w(i) equal to 0.01; if w(i)>w* where w* is the water-holding capacity, then the surplus for that
day is w(i)-w*+P*alpha.
The soil-moisture extraction function beta=w/w* was used for this study. Since there is no
precedent for the use of a runoff extraction function (alpha), the formulation of this function
was more speculative and deserves further study. In the mean time, a simple relationship,
alpha = w/w*, was used and yielded enough surplus to satisfy mass balance constraints in the
If the initial soil moisture is unknown, which is typically the case, a balancing routine is used to
force the net change in soil moisture from the beginning to the end of a specified balancing
period (N time steps) to zero. To do this, the initial soil moisture is set to the water-holding
capacity and budget calculations are made up to the time period (N+1). The initial soil moisture
at time 1 (w(1)) is then set equal to the soil moisture at time N+1 (w(N+1)) and the budget is re-
computed until the difference (w(1) - w(N+1)) is less than a specified tolerance.
climate stations where water-holding capacity can be measured or estimated, but the result of
these point calculations must be interpolated over space in order to get a surplus volume. An
alternative approach taken in this study was to use pre-computed climate, net radiation, and
water-holding capacity grids, augmented with climate station measurements, to calculate the
soil-water budget at each point on a 0.5 by 0.5 grid. Using a single value for precipitation,
temperature, and net radiation in each 0.5 cell seems reasonable at the monthly time scale.
The water-holding capacity may vary considerably within each 0.5 cell, and the value used in
One aspect of the soil-water budget that involves significant uncertainty and ambiguity is
ambiguous by itself, as discussed in the next section. Due to limited meteorological data, two
simple methods for estimating potential evapotranspiration were considered for the Niger
basin study, the Priestley-Taylor and Thornthwaite methods. For the short term simulation (July
1983 to December 1990), a global net radiation data set obtained from NASA facilitated making
discussed later in this paper, the Priestley-Taylor method is considered superior to the
Thornthwaite approach; however, it is simpler to apply the Thornthwaite approach to long term
average conditions and to selected historical periods because the global net radiation data used
in this study are only available from July 1983 to June 1991. It would be nice to have consistent
methods for estimating potential evapotranspiration over different time periods so that fair
comparisons can be made. Because the Thornthwaite method is more easily applied over
different historical time periods, determining whether there are significant differences between
predicted runoff using the Priestley-Taylor and Thornthwaite methods is an important question.
The conclusion is that there are significant differences and the Priestley-Taylor approach is
better. For this study, the average net radiation over the eight year period when net radiation
data were available was taken to be the long term average net radiation. Both of the Priestley-
Taylor and Thornthwaite methods perform poorly in arid regions and the significance of this is
briefly discussed.
measure of moisture demand to replace two common surrogates for moisture demand
temperature and pan evaporation. Potential evapotranspiration refers to the maximum rate of
evapotranspiration from a large area completely and uniformly covered with growing
vegetation with an unlimited moisture supply. There is a distinction between the term potential
evapotranspiration and potential evaporation from a free water surface because factors such as
stomatal impedence and plant growth stage influence evapotranspiration but do not influence
Brutsaert, 1982, notes on pp. 214 and 221 the remarkable similarity in the literature among
observations of water losses from short vegetated surfaces and free water surfaces. He poses a
possible explanation that the stomatal impedance to water vapor diffusion in plants may be
between potential evapotranspiration from tall vegetation and potential evaporation from free
water surfaces. The commonly used a value of 1.26 in the Priestley-Taylor equation was derived
using observations over both open water and saturated land surfaces. For the most part, the
term potential evapotranspiration will be used predominantly in this paper and, as used,
includes water loss directly from the soil and/or through plant transpiration.
potential conditions (Brutsaert, p. 214). In this study, temperature and net radiation
measurements used for calculating potential evapotranspiration in dry areas and for dry
periods will be different than the values that would have been observed under potential
conditions. The fact that the Thornthwaite and Priestley-Taylor methods have exhibited weak
performance at arid sites is related to this ambiguity because the assumptions under which the
expressions were derived break down. Poor performance in arid regions is highly relevant to
the Niger Basin study because of large arid areas in the northern part of the basin. This problem
will be addressed a bit further during the detailed discussions of each method.
Although not used directly in this study, a brief review of the widely used Penman equation
serves as a good starting point for discussing the estimation of potential evapotranspiration.
Two requirements for evaporation to occur are an energy input and a mechanism for the
transport of water vapor away from saturated surface. In light of this, two traditional
approach. With the energy budget approach, the net radiation available at the surface
(shortwave absorbed plus longwave emitted) must be partitioned between latent heat flux and
sensible heat flux, assuming that ground heat flux is negligible. This partitioning is typically
achieved using the Bowen ratio which is the ratio of sensible heat flux to latent heat flux.
Approximating the Bowen ratio typically requires measurements of temperature and humidity
at two heights. The aerodynamic approach typically involves a vapor transport coefficient times
the vapor pressure gradient between the saturated surface and an arbitrary measurement
wind speed, humidity, and temperature. Brutsaert, Chow et al., and Dingman, present
equations for calculating the Bowen ratio and vapor transport coefficients. Without simplifying
In 1944, Penman combined the energy budget and aerodynamic approaches. Penman's
derivation eliminates the need for measuring water surface temperature; only the air
(4)
(5)
(6)
Rn is net radiation (typical units are W/m2), lv is latent heat of vaporization (J/kg), row is
density of water (kg/m3), K(u) is a mass transfer coefficient, es is saturated vapor pressure at air
The Penman equation is a weighted average of the rates of evaporation due to net radiation
(Er) and turbulent mass transfer (Ea). Provided that model assumptions are met and adequate
input data are available, various forms of the Penman equation yield the most accurate
estimates of evaporation from saturated surfaces. The "Evapotranspiration and Irrigation Water
methods for estimating potential evaporation. The top six rated methods in ASCE, 1990, are
Due to lack of data, it is not feasible to use the complete Penman equation to make potential
evaporation estimates for the Niger Basin study. Because of their simplicity, the Thornthwaite
and Priestley-Taylor methods for estimating potential evaporation are widely used in regional
and global scale climatic water budget studies. In the Niger Basin project, the only input data
currently available with adequate spatial coverage are temperature and net radiation. While
other simple temperature and/or radiation methods are available and considered briefly later
in this report, the Thornthwaite and Priestley-Taylor methods are the focus of this study.
A. RADIATION DATA
A new global radiation data set makes using the Priestley-Taylor method a feasible option for
estimating potential evapotranspiration at the scale of this study. Surface longwave and
shortwave radiation flux estimates are available for a 96 month period extending from July
1983 to June 1991. The data are given on the ISSCP equal-area grid which has a spatial
resolution of 2.5 at the equator. Darnell et al, 1992, assert that recent (last decade) advances in
input data and flux estimation algorithms have greatly improved the ability to assess the
radiation budget on a global scale. Improvements in the input data come from the International
Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE).
According to Darnell et al., 1995, longwave flux estimates are accurate to within +/- 25 W/m2
and Whitlock et al. estimate the accuracy of shortwave estimates to be +/- 20 W/m2. The
B. CLIMATE DATA
Global data sets of mean monthly temperature and precipitation interpolated to a 0.5 by 0.5
grid were obtained from Cort Willmott at the University of Delaware. These data are from the
"Global Air Temperature and Precipitation Data Archive" compiled by D. Legates and C.
Willmott. These monthly precipitation estimates were previously corrected for gage bias. Data
from 24,635 terrestrial stations and 2,223 oceanic grid points were used to estimate the
precipitation field. The climatology is largely representative of the years 1920 to 1980 with
more weight given to recent ("data-rich") years (Legates and Willmott, 1990).
Daily precipitation and temperature estimates for stations around the globe are available on a
"Global Daily Summary" CD-ROM produced by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville,
NC. The period of record for these data is 1977-1991 although not all stations have records for
this entire period. The density of climate stations is quite high in some parts of the Niger River
Basin but low in other areas. In addition, daily rainfall data for 191 stations in Niger and 41
stations in Mali were provided on floppy disk by FAO. The period of record for these stations
varies, but the most recent date with available records from these stations is December 31,
1990. A more detailed discussion of the data is provided in Part II of this report.
A grid of water-holding capacity estimates was provided by FAO for the Niger Basin project.
Values in this grid were compiled by an expert at FAO using information from the CD-ROM
Digitized Soil Map of the World (FAO, UNESCO, 1974-1981). There 6 unique values of water-
holding capacity (mm) in this grid: 0, 10, 30, 75, 125, and 200. The value zero is assigned to
water bodies.
V. SPECIAL ISSUES
A. CREATING RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE SURFACES FROM POINT DATA (SHORT-TERM CASE)
1. Creating precipitation surfaces
Monthly time series tables of precipitation and potential evaporation for the period July 1983
to December 1990 were estimated at each point on a regular mesh of 0.5 degree cells. This
computational mesh was selected because long term mean monthly estimates of rainfall and
temperature at these points were obtained from C.J. Willmott at the University of Delaware.
The mean monthly values from Willmott were used in conjunction with thiessen polygons to
create 0.5 surfaces of precipitation and potential evaporation for each month in the short-term
study period. The basic methodology is described here and more details are provided in Part II
of this report.
The initial approach for creating monthly precipitation surfaces was as follows: (1) Created
thiessen polygons based on selected precipitation stations and used these polygons to
associate each 0.5 computational cell with a given station. (2) Calculate the monthly value in
(7)
The subscript i indicates cell index where precipitation is being estimated and g indicates value
at the gage. The superscript "mon" indicates a monthly average value obtained from the
Legates and Willmott climatology. If the mean value at the gage is zero, then the
ratio is set equal to one. The idea is to try to say something about the spatial
rainfall created by an expert in rainfall interpolation. It turns out that this method yields poor
results for dry months because the ratio of the mean value at a cell i to the mean value at the
gage can be excessively high or low when dealing with small rainfall totals. To rectify this
problem in a second round of calculations, the ratio of mean annual values at cell i to mean
annual values at the gage were used. Using annual values, there is one adjustment ratio for
(8)
An attempt to distribute daily rainfall values in a similar manner to the monthly values was
made, but in locations where our precipitation gage network is sparse, this involves the poor
assumption that individual rainfall events occur over very large areas. Thus, daily calculations
made using this approach were not put to use as input to the flow simulation model. One
approach to dealing with this problem would be to use a library of dimensionless daily time
series distributions to distribute monthly rainfall totals for each cell throughout a month;
however, because the merits of adopting this approach are unclear and because it involves a
1. Radiation Methods
a. Priestley-Taylor
In 1972, C.B. Priestley and R.J. Taylor showed that, under certain conditions, knowledge of net
radiation and ground dryness may be sufficient to determine vapor and sensible heat fluxes at
the Earth's surface. When large land areas (on the order of hundreds of kilometers) become
saturated, Priestley and Taylor reasoned that net radiation is the dominant constraint on
evaporation and analyzed numerous data sets to show that the advection or mass-transfer
term in the Penman combination equation tends toward a constant fraction of the radiation
term under "equilibrium" conditions. According to Brutsaert, 1982, Slatyer and McIlroy, 1961,
first defined the concept of equilibrium evaporation as a state that is reached when a moving
air mass has been in contact with a saturated surface over a long fetch and approaches vapor
saturation -- thus causing the advection term in the Penman equation to go to zero. Both
Slatyer-McIlroy and Priestley-Taylor considered the radiation term in the Penman equation to
be a lower limit for the evaporation from a moist surface. The form of the evaporation equation
developed by Priestley and Taylor is as follows, a constant (alpha) times Penman's radiation
term.
(9)
Equating this expression to the combination equation reveals that the advection term must be
(10)
(11)
Using micro-meteorological observations over ocean surfaces and over saturated land-surfaces
following rainfall, Priestley and Taylor came up with a best-estimate of 1.26 for the parameter
alpha. The fact that alpha is greater than one indicates that true advection-free conditions do
not exist. Since 1972, several other researchers have confirmed that alpha values in the range
1.26-1.28 are consistent with observations under similar conditions. Some researchers have
found significantly lower values for the alpha coefficient, but these coefficients were found for
different types of surfaces (i.e. tall vegetation or bare soil as opposed to grass and open water).
There have also been indications that the alpha coefficient may exhibit significant seasonal
climates. The advection of dry air to irrigated crops is likely to be greater in arid climates
because large saturated areas are rare, resulting in a more dominant role of the advection
term. A higher alpha coefficient may be required in arid climates (ASCE, 1990). Based on arid
sites studied in ASCE, 1990, a value of alpha=1.7-1.75 seems more appropriate for arid regions.
Shuttleworth, 1993, states that the Priestley-Taylor method is the "preferred radiation-based
method for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration." Shuttleworth, 1993, notes that
errors using the Priestley-Taylor method are on the order of 15% or 0.75 mm/day, whichever is
greater, and that estimates should only be made for periods of ten days or longer.
The Jensen-Haise, FAO-24 Radiation, and the Turc method are all classified as radiation-based
methods in ASCE, 1990, but the FAO-24 Radiation Method and the Turc method require basic
information beyond temperature and net radiation mean humidity and mean wind speed for
FAO-24 and mean humidity for the Turc method. The Jensen-Haise method does receive an
overall ranking higher than the Priestley-Taylor method in ASCE 1990, Table 7.20; however, the
Priestley-Taylor equation outranks the Jensen-Haise equation for humid climates. Predicted
surplus volumes are much more sensitive to the accuracy of the potential evaporation estimate
in humid climates than arid climates; therefore, the Priestley-Taylor approach is considered a
better choice than Jensen-Haise for our application. It is also noteworthy that the Jensen-Haise,
FAO-24 Radiation, and the Turc method all use the incoming shortwave radiation rather than
net radiation as an input. In theory, net radiation is a better indicator of potential evaporation
than shortwave radiation because variations in albedo and cloudiness have already been taken
into consideration.
2. Temperature Methods
Thornthwaite (1948, Wilm et al., 1944) developed an empirical equation for estimating
potential evapotranspiraion from a reference grass surface that requires only mean monthly
temperature and day length estimates as input. The regression equation was developed using
data from lysimeter and small watershed water balance experiments at several sites scattered
throughout the United States. Thornthwaite recognized that there is a more direct physical
relationship between potential evaporation and net radiation than between potential
evaporation and temperature, but foresaw correctly that sufficient radiation measurements or
for many years to come. Using temperature as a surrogate for net radiation involves the implicit
advection of moist or dry air, and that the Bowen ratio is constant. These conditions do not
exist in arid and semi-arid regions except during short periods after regional rain storms (ASCE,
1990). The comparison and ranking of potential evaporation estimating methods in the ASCE
Manual (Table 7.18) clearly shows the poor performance of the Thornthwaite methodology in
arid climates.
Mintz and Walker discuss the fact that the Thornthwaite equation was developed for
temperatures measured under potential conditions and only represents "true" potential
evaporation when there is no soil moisture stress. Application in locations with soil moisture
stress results in an "apparent" potential evaporation. The energy balance at the land surface
and thus the surface temperature are altered under non-potential conditions. Mintz and
Walker observe that dry areas have higher temperatures than wet areas at the same latitude
and season and develop an empirical equation that relates the potential air temperature to the
measured air temperature. Based upon measured air surface temperatures, the Thornthwaite
method will overestimate the "true" potential evaporation in arid regions. Mintz and Walker
assert that the largest difference between calculated "true" and "apparent" potential
evaporation occurs in the central Sahara where "apparent" is 6.2 mm/day in July and the "true"
is 5.5 mm/day.
computed with:
(12)
where T is mean surface air temperuture in month i (C) and I is the heat index defined in
Equation 13 below. The exponent a in Equation 12 is a function of the heat index (I).
(13)
(14)
adjusted for day length because 30 day months and 12 hour days were assumed when this
The adjusted potential evaporation accounting for month length and daylight duration is given
by
(15)
where APE is in (mm/month), d is length of the month in days, and h is the duration of daylight
During the course of this investigation, a FORTRAN code for computing water budgets called
"WATBUG" obtained from Cort J. Willmott at the Universtiy of Delaware (Willmott, 1977) has
been very helpful. The WATBUG code allows for daily or monthly budgeting and includes
subroutines for balancing, computing day length given latitude, and calculating potential
evaporation with the Thornthwaite equation. All or parts of the WATBUG routine have been
used in this investigation, either in their original or modified form. An Avenue script for use
with monthly data that uses the budgeting scheme of Equation 3 has also been written.
b. SCS Blaney-Criddle
This empirical temperature-based method requires only mean monthly temperatures and an
estimate of the monthly percentage of annual daytime hours. Based upon the results in ASCE,
1990, Tables 7.18 and 7.19, this method outperforms the Priestley-Taylor method in all months
and in the peak month for arid regions but exhibits poor performance in humid regions.
evapotranspiration (PE) predicted using the two methods. ( Click here to view all of Figure 1.;
Zoom in on top map , and bottom map in Figure 1.) There are clear differences in the PE spatial
variations. The Priestley-Taylor PE estimates show decreasing trend from high values in the
humid south portions to lower values in the arid north. The Thornthwaite estimates exhibit no
consistent trend. On a basin average, the Thornthwaite PE (136.8 mm/month) is higher than
throughout the year (7 year average) for the cells identified in Figure 2. ( Click here to view all
of Figure 2.; View top , middle , and bottom charts in Figure 2 respectively.) Moving south to
north, seasonal trends of higher PE in the summer show up. This is related to the fact that most
of the rainfall occurs in the summer and relatively less rainfall occurs during other parts of the
year as you move north. Net radiation is higher in wet months because more solar radiation is
PE. This is the reason that the Thornthwaite method actually yields higher average surplus
despite having a higher basin-average PE (Figure 3). Figure 3 shows a comparison of mean
annual surplus values computed from the soil-water budget using the two different estimates
for PE. ( Click here to view all of Figure 3.; Zoom in on top , middle , and bottom maps in Figure
3 respectively.) Because the Priestley-Taylor PE is higher in the south where all the rainfall
occurs, the actually evaporation estimated using this method is greater and the average surplus
generated is smaller.
The surplus results presented in Figure 3 were computed using a slightly different methodology
than that described in Equation 3. This earlier analysis used the methodology of C.J. Willmott
written in the WATBUG FORTRAN code. The methodology can be summarized as follows:
If wi > w*, then surplus for that day is wi-w* and wi is set equal to w*. In addition to the fact
that it does not inclued the rainfall extraction term, Equation 16 differs from Equation 3
because it involves the assumption that if precipitation is less than potential evaporation then
all precipitation used to satisfy the potential demand is consumed immediately, before having a
chance to enter the soil. This generates less surplus than the approach described in Equation 18
(18)
As of 1992-93, Mintz and Walker used the Thornthwaite approach for PE calculations because
they were skeptical about our knowledge of global net radiation, either from direct
measurements or calculations, and thus didn't envision the application of the Penman, Budyko,
or Priestley-Taylor approaches directly on a global basis. Mintz and Walker indicate that the
Thornthwaite and Priestley-Taylor methods are consistent to within +/- 0.5 mm/day or 15
or more in Cell 3. Recall that the accuracy of the of the radiation fluxes are about +/-20-25
W/m2 which corresponds to about 0.7 mm/day or 21 mm/month. Shuttleworth puts the
It is clear from the discussion of errors above that potential evaporation estimation errors can
easily be on the order of 1 mm/day. This seemingly small error can yield significant differences
in surplus volumes, and surplus calculations are especially sensitive to the spatial pattern of
potential evapotranspiration estimates. The seasonal pattern of PE may also play a significant
role in surplus generation, but no definite conclusions have been made from this brief study.
Three reasons for favoring the Priestley-Taylor method over the Thornthwaite method are (1)
net radiation has a more direct physical relationship to evaporation, (2) the Priestley-Taylor
method receives a higher ranking than the Thornthwaite method in comparison to lysimeter
estimates (ASCE, 1990), and (3) the spatial pattern of Priestley-Taylor PE estimates in the Niger
basin are more sensible. The range of errors in net radiation estimates (in units of mm/day) are
Thornthwaite basin mean surplus to Priestley-Taylor basin mean surplus is 1.7. The formulation
of Equation 3 should be less sensitive to PE than the formulation of Equations 16 and 17.
An outstanding problem in hydrology and meteorology spanning all spatial and temporal scales
is estimating how the available net radiation at the land surface is distributed into the various
component fluxes of the land surface energy balance, most importantly evapotranspiration and
the sensible heat flux. The importance of this distribution of water and energy has been
demonstrated by many numerical studies using General Circulation Models (GCMs) to explore
the effects of varying soil moisture and resulting variations in the balance of sensible and latent
heating on the global circulation and precipitation. Other modelling studies have noted the
mesoscale circulations, severe weather and cloud development, precipitation and other aspects
evapotranspiration and sensible heating at the land surface would also be valuable to
Currently it is possible only at relatively small spatial scales to measure the sensible heating and
evapotranspiration from the land surface or the inter-annual variations which may result from
changes in rainfall and resulting soil moisture and vegetative response. The unavailability of
such measurements for regional and larger spatial scales has been an impediment to the
development of suitable land surface parameterizations and closure of the land surface
energy/water balance, even though certain field programs such as the First ISLSCP Field
Experiment (FIFE) and others have been designed to bridge the gaps between scales. With
inadequate verification of surface quantities at regional and larger scales, investigators have
measurements made over smaller scales, analyzing patterns of land use and vegetation and the
Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) as proxies for evapotranspiration and soil moisture.
Current land surface energy/water budget studies at the CIMSS are designed to exploit
combinations of remote sensed and in-situ data types to better understand land surface
exchanges at regional and larger scales. The long-term goal is to combine these data types in a
land surface "assimilation" scheme based on the principles of optimal estimation (the same
sorts of schemes which are currently used for assimilating atmospheric data into numerical
prediction models). This will enable the land surface energy and water balance and potentially
other land characteristics to be evaluated at regional and larger scales. Ideally, this "optimal"
system will account for the relative information content of the various data sources, the
relative spatial and temporal distributions of these data and the relative accuracy of the
"inversion" methods which are used to translate raw data into the estimates of land surface
quantities.
Recent work, conducted by CIMSS scientist George Diak and NOAA scientist Robert Rabin,
investigates the relationships between several in-situ and remote sensed signals of the land
surface energy balance and soil moisture, as well as NDVI. Some of the surface characteristic
signals analyzed are: 1) two precipitation indices, one derived from surface rainfall
measurements and the other from satellite microwave data, 2) the temporal changes of surface
"skin" (radiometric) temperatures from the GOES satellites, and 3) measurements of the
temporal changes of the height of the planetary boundary layer from radiosonde reports, a very
The relationship of the surface 12-hour Bowen ratio and NDVI for 5 June 1988 shows
agreement with the pattern of developing drought conditions in the area. Recall that the
Midwest and Northern Plains experienced drought conditions and abnormally warm
temperatures during the summer of 1988. Increasing "greeness" in the NDVI image indicates
increasing NDVI and vegetation cover. The contour values represent Bowen ratio (the ratio of
sensible to latent heating) values multiplied by 10. The Bowen ratio was estimated from skin
temperature data from the GOES and planetary boundary layer height measurements derived
from radiosondes. The yellow contours represent the temporal change of surface skin
temperature, which is evaluated from GOES data by subtracting the measured skin
temperature at three hours after local sunrise from the maximum skin temperature measured
during the day. The correlation between the temporal changes of skin temperature and NDVI
over the entire region was poor. However, in the eastern section of the region, which was
already experiencing drought conditions, the correlation between skin temperature and NDVI