Emcfjuly2011 PDF

ENERGY & METALS CONSENSUS FORECASTS
JULY 2011
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be reproduced (complete or partial), redistributed, stored in a public retrieval system or broad-
cast to persons other than the email subscriber without the prior written permission of Consensus
Economics Inc.
Survey Date
July 25, 2011
Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts surveys more than 30 energy and metals analysts each
quarter for a range of commodity price forecasts. The results covering over 25 commodities
together with reference data, analysis, special surveys, and the underlying global macroeconomic
outlook are sent to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.
Contents Factors Affecting Commodity Prices:

Page A Special Survey
Overview ................................................ 2 This month's special survey focuses on the extent to which com-
modity price movements are influenced by a range of different
Macroeconomic Outlook ...................... 3
factors, including demand/business cycle, supply/produc-
tion constraints, government trade policies, FX linkages/
Commodity Price Indices ..................... 4
US$ value and investment funds. For our panellists judge-
ments as to which factors dominate the respective outlooks for
Long-Term Forecasts (2011-2021) ........ 5
17 major commodities see pages 26 and 27.
Individual Commodity Forecasts
Crude Oil ............................................. 6
Overview
Gasoline & Heating Oil ........................ 7
A sharp sell-off in commodities in early May which began with
Gas Oil ................................................ 8
a slump in Silver (see chart below and page 23) was fuelled
Natural Gas ......................................... 9
by fears that premiums had become detached from fundamen-
Coal ................................................... 10
tals. Having climbed in the first five months of 2011 to near
Uranium ............................................. 11
US$110 per barrel, WTI Crude Oil (page 6) suffered a drop of
almost 10%. Copper (page 14), usually an economic bellwether
Aluminium ......................................... 12
due to its industrial versatility, fell by a smaller amount but doubts
Alumina ............................................. 13
about its value also came to the fore. Clearly, the mass liquida-
Copper .............................................. 14
Nickel ................................................ 15 (continued on page 2)
Lead .................................................. 16
Zinc ................................................... 17 Gold & Silver Prices
US$ per troy oz. US$ per troy oz.
Steel .................................................. 18 1800 50
Iron Ore ............................................. 19
1600 45
Tin, Cobalt, Manganese .................... 20
Molybdenum, Rutile, Ilmenite, Zircon 21 1400
40
35
1200 Gold
Gold ................................................... 22 (left scale) 30
1000
Silver ................................................. 23
25
Platinum ............................................ 24 800
20
Palladium .......................................... 25
600
15
Factors Affecting Commodity Prices: 400

Silver 10
A Special Analysis .......................... 26-27 200 (right scale)
5
0 0
Chart of Commodity Forecasts ........... 28 Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011
Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1754-825X) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard Editors: Che-Wing Pang & Claire Hubbard
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom editors@consensuseconomics.com Assistant Editor: Matthew Record
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 www.consensuseconomics.com
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
Copyright Consensus
electronic, photocopying, Economics
recording Inc.
or otherwise 2011
without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or take any responsibility for the 1
information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
OVERVIEW JULY 2011
(continued from front page)
tion of energy and metals investments was exacerbated by materials. Short-term trends in commodities will likely con-
signs of economic weakness in China and the debt plight in tinue to be closely linked to monetary policy and the avail-
the euro zone (see macroeconomic analysis, page 3). Down- ability of affordable finance. Issues regarding debt and lev-
ward price pressures for precious metals, though, appear to erage, notably the budget crisis in Europe and the US (which
have eased since then, as the US Federal Reserve appears needs to extend the constitutional debt ceiling before early
very unlikely to reverse its ultra loose monetary stance be- August), dominate investor sentiment. On balance, most
fore 2012. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting reveal that panellists do not expect a significant correction in commod-
a third round of quantitative easing (i.e. QE3) was even ity prices to occur over the next few quarters, even though
comtemplated which could fuel risk appetite. In terms of fun- some are close to record levels.
damentals, supply constraints and the out-performance of
Asia and Latin America (though perhaps less vibrant than We feature on page 5 long-term forecasts for over 25 com-
six months ago) appear sufficient to sustain demand for raw modities, covering the period 2011 to 2021.
SUMMARY OF ENERGY & METALS CONSENSUS FORECASTS
% change Spot Price Forecast %
See since end July 25 Consensus Forecasts change to
page Dec. 2010 2011 Dec. 2011 Mar. 2012 Jun. 2012 Jun. 2012
Crude Oil - WTI (US$/bbl) 6 +21.4% 98.97 98.93 99.94 100.9 +1.9%
Natural Gas (US, US$/MMBtu) 9 -28.5% 4.465 4.610 4.954 4.764 +6.7%
Coal (Steaming, US$/tonne) 10 +57.2% 126.8 127.0 127.3 127.2 +0.3%
Uranium (US$/lb) 11 +13.5% 53.50 57.67 58.38 59.08 +10.4%
Aluminium (US$/tonne) 12 +13.7% 2573 2598 2585 2610 +1.4%

Alumina (US$/tonne) 13 +30.1% 415.0 396.3 393.4 395.4 -4.7%
Copper (US$/tonne) 14 +23.3% 9620 9824 10049 10202 +6.0%
Nickel (US$/tonne) 15 +21.2% 23780 24514 24654 24783 +4.2%
Lead (US$/tonne) 16 +10.6% 2670 2645 2664 2658 -0.4%
Zinc (US$/tonne) 17 -5.9% 2426 2365 2442 2483 +2.3%
Tin (US$/tonne) 20 +42.4% 28145 27651 27436 27625 -1.8%
Steel (HRC, Europe, US$/tonne) 18 +31.7% 803.8 804.3 810.7 836.4 +4.0%
Iron Ore (Aust. Fine, US/dmtu) 19 +84.9% 272.7 259.3 254.8 254.9 -6.5%
Gold (US$/oz.) 22 +36.3% 1616 1535 1522 1517 -6.2%

Silver (US$/oz.) 23 +77.7% 40.78 35.47 33.96 33.97 -16.7%
Platinum (US$/oz.) 24 +18.3% 1787 1833 1868 1871 +4.7%
Palladium (US$/oz.) 25 +50.7% 806.0 848.4 894.6 898.5 +11.5%
NOTES, ABBREVIATIONS, WEIGHTS AND MEASURES JULY 2011

WTI West Texas Intermediate GDP Gross Domestic Product
EIA Energy Information Agency (USA) na Not Available
LME London Metal Exchange fob Free On Board
LBMA London Bullion Market Association bbl Barrel
LPPM London Platinum and Palladium Market dltu Dry long tonne unit (1/100 of a dry long tonne)
NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange dmtu Dry metric tonne unit (1/100 of a dry metric tonne)
COMEX New York Commodities Exchange MMBtu Millions of British Thermal Units (Btu)
ICE - Intercontinental Exchange rhs/lhs right-hand scale/left-hand scale
All individual commodity forecasts on pages 6-25 are listed in descending order of their approximate 1-year percentage change
estimates. Consensus forecasts are mean averages of individual quarterly average forecasts.
Historical price data in this publication has been provided by Commodity Research Bureau and other sources.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. GDP and Industrial Production are expressed
as average percentage changes over the previous calendar year unless otherwise indicated.
1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces 1 short ton = 0.907 metric tonnes = 2000 pounds
1kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds 1 barrel = 42 US gallons
1,000 kilograms = 1 metric tonne = 2204.6 pounds 10 Therms of Natural Gas = 1 million Btu = 1MMBtu
1 long tonne = 1.016 metric tonnes = 2240 pounds 1 metric/long tonne unit (MTU/LTU) = 1/100 of a metric/long tonne
2 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

JULY 2011 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economic growth rates provide a valuable insight into the behaviour of energy and metals prices, with industrial produc-
tion growth forecasts in particular giving an overview of the likely demand for many commodities. The forecasts below are
taken from the current issues of our publications Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Eastern
Europe Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts.
REAL GDP GROWTH Consensus INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH Consensus

(% change on previous year) Forecasts (% change on previous year) Forecasts
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
United States 0.0 -2.6 2.9 2.5 3.0 United States -3.7 -11.2 5.3 4.2 3.9
Japan -1.2 -6.3 4.0 -0.7 3.1 Japan -3.4 -21.8 16.6 -2.2 8.6
Euro zone 0.3 -4.1 1.7 2.0 1.6 Euro zone -1.6 -14.7 7.4 4.9 3.6
China 9.6 9.2 10.3 9.2 8.8 China 12.9 11.0 15.7 13.9 12.8
Australia 2.6 1.3 2.7 1.9 4.0 Australia 2.5 -1.6 4.4 -0.2 4.1
1
World 4.0 2.0 4.0 3.2 3.6 World 1 1.2 -7.4 9.6 5.7 6.2
1
country weights available to qualified subscribers upon request.
2011 REAL GDP GROWTH 2011 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH

(%) (%)
(%) Consensus Forecasts From Surveys Of: (%) Consensus Forecasts From Surveys Of:
2010 2011 2010 2011
Jan Mar May J ul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
3.5 9.5 6.0 15.0
3.0 United States (lhs)

United States (lhs) 9.4 4.0
2.5 14.6
2.0 9.3 2.0

Euro Zone (lhs) Euro Zone (lhs)
14.2
1.5
9.2 0.0
1.0
13.8
0.5 9.1 -2.0
China (rhs)
0.0
China (rhs) 9.0 13.4
-4.0
-0.5
Japan (lhs) Japan (lhs)
-1.0 8.9 -6.0 13.0
Clouds on the Horizon in a number of financial institutions have yet to be fully re-
A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround paired, making them vulnerable to exogenous shocks. The
the global recovery which over the past two quarters has approval of more stringent austerity measures in Athens in
endured a spike in commodity prices and supply chain dis- late June provided investors with some relief as an immedi-
ruptions following the earthquake in Japan. The effect of some ate default was avoided. Yet debt risks were soon reignited in
of these negative events is beginning to dissipate, as high- Portugal and Ireland, which saw their ratings slashed, and
lighted by a decline in the price of crude oil. However, ten- increased scrutiny on Italy and Spain. Another important is-
sions in Egypt remain elevated as new elections are post- sue for the global economy is the threat of inflation which is
poned to October or November (originally set for September). being met with more urgent monetary responses, particu-
In addition, power outages and political discord over recon- larly in the emerging world. For these reasons, the consen-
struction efforts in Tokyo could have negative trade implica- sus has downgraded 2011 GDP and industrial production fore-
tions. A potential debt disaster in Europe also poses an im- casts for the US, China and Japan in recent polls (top two
mediate risk to the global banking system, as balance sheets charts).
US$ per Euro Renminbi per US$ EXCHANGE RATES vs. US$
1.6
5.5
Spot Consensus Forecasts
1.5 6.0 Rate End Oct. End Jul. % change End Jul.
1.4 6.5
Jul . 11 2011 2012 from spot 2013
1.3
Euro 1.399 1.427 1.408 +0.6 1.362
7.0
1.2
Japanese yen 80.38 82.93 87.32 -7.9 90.36
7.5 -5.9
Australian dollar 1.063 1.039 1.000 0.956
1.1
Consensus Consensus
Forecasts 8.0
Forecasts Chinese renminbi 6.465 6.341 6.148 +5.2 5.913
1.0
8.5
Canadian dollar 0.969 0.973 0.987 -1.9 1.009
0.9
Brazilian real 1.582 1.601 1.652 -4.3 1.755
0.8 9.0
1 Source: Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts
Jan 01 Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13 Jan 01 Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13 US dollars per currency unit
(Survey Date: July 11, 2011)
Weak Currency Fundamentals Italy and Spain. The spike in risk aversion has thus far been
Fear and trepidation over the global growth outlook (story supportive of the US dollar due to its perceived safe ha-
above) has triggered periodic bouts of volatility among the ven status even though the US economy faces significant
major currencies. A catastrophic default in Athens appears debt and structural challenges of its own. Of the major cur-
to have been narrowly averted, although confidence in the rencies covered in the table above, the consensus expects
euro remains fragile, hampered by concerns that the sover- that only the Chinese renminbi will be able to maintain an
eign debt crisis would soon engulf larger EMU countries like uptrend over the next twelve months.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011 3
COMMODITY PRICE INDICES JULY 2011
Commodity price indices are useful aggregates of individual commodity price trends. We focus here on two
commodity price indices: The Economist Base Metals Index (which weights the prices of major base metals
according to their share of world trade in 2005) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Non-Rural
Commodity Price Index (which weights the prices of major minerals according to their share of Australian
exports in 2008/2009). Both indices are expressed as US$ prices in a given base year and track the performance
of their particular subset of commodities. In addition to showing historical data from the two indices, we also
show consensus forecasts for both over the next ten quarters. These are calculated from weighting consensus
commodity price forecasts from this editions survey. In the first two charts below, we also show the highest and
lowest projections over the forecast horizon in order to illustrate the range of forecasts.
The Economist Base Metals Index RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index
300 (US$ price index, 2005=100) (US$ price index, Fiscal Year 2008/09 = 100)
180 Weights By Share of Aust. Export Values:
Weights By Share of World Trade:
Coking Coal (21%) Alumina (10%)
Aluminium (47%) Zinc (7%) 160
240 Steaming Coal (14%) [LNG (7%)]
Copper (32%) Lead (3%)
140 Gold (13%)
Nickel (8%) Tin (3%)
Iron Ore Lump (13%)
180 120 Aluminium (11%)
Copper (4%)
100 Zinc (2%)
120 Nickel (4%)
80 Lead(1%)
Consensus Consensus
Consensus Forecasts 60 Forecasts
60
High Consensus
Low 40 High
Low
0 20
Q1 2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013
The Economist Base Metals Index is a sub-index of The RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is a
the headline Economist Commodity Price Index, contain- sub-index of the RBAs Headline Index of Commodity
ing six base metals: Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin Prices. The index uses an Australian fiscal base year (July
and Zinc. The index base year is 2005 =100, and the head- 08-June 09). The RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index
line index is available in sterling and euros, as well as US weights major minerals (list above) according to their share
dollars. It is published on a weekly basis. Energy & Metals of Australian export values. Oil is excluded while liquified
Consensus Forecasts then converts this week-by-week data natural gas (LNG) is included (it is some 7% of the index,
into quarterly averages and calculates the index forecasts but is not included in Energy & Metals Consensus Fore-
by using our panellists projections for the individual metals. casts calculations, as we do not survey for LNG forecasts).
Recent Historical Data and Consensus Forecast Projections

2010 2011 2012 2013
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Economist Base Metals Index 176.0 196.8 191.8 194.1 196.9 198.5 200.7 200.3 198.3 196.3 196.0 195.5 195.5
RBA Non-Rural Commodity 123.4 134.9 153.0 154.2 150.9 148.9 148.7 147.5 145.8 143.0 140.6 139.6 138.2
Price Index (all index values are quarterly averages)
Changes in the Consensus: Changes in the Consensus:

The Economist Base Metals Index 160
RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index
230
150
210
140
190 130
170 120
150 110
100
130 Historical Data 90
Historical Data
110 Jan 2011 Survey 80
Jan 2011 Survey
70
90 Apr 2011 Survey Apr 2011 Survey
60
70 50 Jul 2011 Survey
Jul 2011 Survey
50 40
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

JULY 2011 LONG-TERM FORECASTS
Long-term price forecasts provide a foundation for expected returns from both existing production facilities and
those under development. In addition to their individual annual 2012 to 2016 forecasts, the table below summa-
rises our panels Long-Term 5-10 year average estimates (2017-2021) in nominal and real (inflation ad-
justed) 2011 dollar terms. Individual nominal forecasts are available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Consensus Forecasts
See individual commodity US$ Spot Long-Term
pages for mineral (Nominal, Annual Averages)
Actual Price (2017-2021 Average)
specifications
2010 (July 25) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Nominal Real
Crude Oil - WTI 91.48 98.97 101.8 103.0 103.5 104.5 105.3 111.0 90.33
- Brent 93.63 116.62 114.5 112.8 110.3 108.5 110.3 120.6 94.58
RBOB Gas (US) 2.113 3.161 3.172 3.367 3.450 3.567 3.583 4.300 3.265
Gas Oil (Europe) 678.1 988.8 985.0 1059 1093 1145 1155 1280 1000
Natural Gas - US 4.375 4.465 4.950 5.311 5.541 5.694 5.699 6.282 5.353
- UK, UK 0.411 0.554 0.613 0.633 0.720 0.975 1.000 0.935 0.753
Coking Coal 190.6 305.5 255.8 227.9 200.3 183.8 170.7 185.8 144.9
Steaming Coal 90.57 126.76 127.4 122.6 112.0 105.4 98.40 107.1 83.33
Uranium 46.07 53.50 59.52 65.00 70.60 68.57 67.60 68.28 60.85
Aluminium 2176 2573 2605 2687 2574 2585 2642 2755 2350
Alumina 333.0 415.0 394.5 408.3 400.9 399.8 404.9 400.1 344.7
Copper 7553 9620 10041 9157 8029 7223 6823 6333 5707
Nickel 21846 23780 24446 23598 22537 21136 20890 20802 18063
Lead 2146 2670 2686 2708 2518 2354 2301 2157 1845
Zinc 2159 2426 2522 2645 2496 2405 2334 2291 1991
Cobalt 20.70 16.55 16.45 16.47 15.73 14.89 15.14 16.21 13.43
Tin 20418 28145 27115 23777 20539 18892 17680 14826 12909
Manganese 7.629 5.400 6.625 6.272 6.025 5.604 5.491 5.279 4.680
Molybdenum 15.89 14.65 18.70 18.49 17.60 16.40 15.57 15.54 12.75
Rutile 537.0 725.0 1410 1433 1213 1044 919.7 890.6 771.2
Ilmenite 74.76 130.0 175.3 175.8 148.8 141.9 138.5 155.0 125.7
Zircon 866.0 1748 2540 2510 2081 1739 1571 1525 1274
Steel - HRC, Europe 704.9 803.8 825.4 802.9 807.0 778.6 757.4 889.0 749.9
- HRC, USA 633.5 779.0 781.0 789.9 771.9 751.1 733.0 787.7 702.1
- HRC, Asia 647.7 697.7 754.3 753.5 732.0 719.0 718.0 697.4 623.4
Iron Ore - Lump (Aust) 195.9 307.2 287.7 255.5 210.5 185.3 173.3 156.9 134.3
- Fine (Aust) 173.6 272.7 250.4 226.4 189.5 167.1 149.4 136.0 115.7
- Fine (Brz) 165.5 259.2 246.5 235.9 200.9 168.7 155.7 121.7 101.9
Gold 1227 1616 1504 1383 1258 1090 1087 1139 910.8
Silver 20.19 40.78 33.06 28.95 25.00 20.50 19.42 19.00 14.56
Platinum 1611 1787 1883 1851 1818 1747 1782 1810 1492
Palladium 527.6 806.0 902.0 855.5 912.2 831.7 914.6 721.5 636.6
% Change Between Spot Price and 2016 % Change Between 2016 and Long-Term Average
(Nominal) (Nominal)
Crude Oil (WTI) Crude Oil (WTI)
Coking Coal Coking Coal
Steaming Coal Steaming Coal
Aluminium Aluminium
Copper Copper
Nickel Nickel
Lead Lead
Zinc Zinc
Steel (Europe) Steel (Europe)
Steel - (USA) Steel - (USA)
Iron Ore-Lump (Aus) Iron Ore-Lump (Aus)
Iron Ore - Fine (Aus) Iron Ore - Fine (Aus)
Gold Gold
Silver Silver
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

CRUDE OIL JULY 2011
Survey Date Spot Price West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel
(July 25): US$98.97 Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
P K Verleger 100.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 21.2% 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00
BNP Paribas 102.00 110.00 111.00 115.00 16.2% 118.00 122.00 na na na na
National Australia Bank 98.00 106.00 110.00 113.00 14.2% 114.00 112.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 110.00
Barclays Capital 99.00 102.00 101.00 112.00 13.2% 107.00 118.00 125.00 125.00 125.00 125.00
ANZ 97.71 102.50 107.50 110.50 11.6% 112.00 113.00 112.50 112.00 112.00 111.00
Oxford Economics 99.13 103.60 106.09 107.06 8.2% 107.01 106.35 105.25 104.87 102.63 101.36
Macquarie Bank 99.00 102.00 103.00 105.00 6.1% 109.00 107.00 108.00 108.00 110.00 108.00
Societe Generale 101.83 101.33 101.33 101.33 2.4% na na na na na na
Deutsche Bank 100.00 103.00 105.00 101.00 2.1% 104.00 106.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 110.00
HWWI 94.00 91.00 93.00 101.00 2.1% 104.00 107.00 109.00 115.00 117.00 117.00
BoA Merrill Lynch 92.00 88.00 94.00 100.00 1.0% 102.00 112.00 na na na na
Wilson HTM 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1.0% 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Commonwealth Bank 116.62 112.00 102.00 98.00 -1.0% 102.00 108.67 113.00 109.00 101.59 100.02
Econ Intelligence Unit 99.00 98.00 101.00 95.95 -3.1% 90.93 93.88 92.92 90.90 90.90 88.87
Citigroup 95.00 90.00 95.00 95.00 -4.0% 95.00 95.00 91.00 91.00 91.00 91.00
Morgan Stanley 94.41 94.41 93.84 93.84 -5.2% 93.84 93.84 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
Deloitte Access Economics 98.20 99.20 96.00 92.70 -6.3% 89.40 86.10 82.80 80.90 79.90 78.90
Investec 86.00 86.00 91.00 91.00 -8.1% 91.00 91.00 95.00 95.00 92.00 92.00
GKI Research 98.00 95.00 95.00 90.00 -9.1% 90.00 90.00 95.00 95.00 100.00 100.00
RBS 89.50 86.50 86.00 89.00 -10.1% 95.00 94.00 93.00 95.00 99.00 97.00
UBS 97.00 87.00 87.00 87.00 -12.1% 87.00 87.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
Consensus (Mean) 97.92 98.93 99.94 100.88 1.9% 102.31 103.89 103.19 103.15 103.11 102.51
High 116.62 120.00 120.00 120.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00 135.00
Low 86.00 86.00 86.00 87.00 87.00 86.10 82.80 80.90 79.90 78.90
Standard Deviation 5.85 9.02 8.34 9.27 11.77 12.81 13.48 13.75 13.83 14.01
Survey Date Spot Price Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel

from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 112.88 113.80 113.39 114.00 -2.2% 114.46 115.96 113.88 113.27 112.44 111.77
High 127.27 135.00 140.00 140.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00
Low 91.80 100.00 100.00 95.00 90.03 92.95 90.00 90.00 90.00 87.99
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Crude Oil (WTI) Spot Price and WTI/Brent Differential WTI Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$ US$/barrel US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
160 120 US$/bbl
140 Price on Survey Date: 110 NYMEX Futures
100 Energy Information
120 WTI: US$98.97/bbl 90 105
Brent: US$116.6/bbl 80 Admin.,USA (Jul. 11)
100 W T I S p o t p r ic e ( lh s ) 70
80 60 103
60 50
40
40 30 101
20 20
10
0 0 Consensus
-10 99
-20 -20
W T I - B r e n t s p o t p r ic e d if f e r e n tia l p e r b a r r e l
-40 -30
Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n 97
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013
Recent Drop in Prices Likely Temporary

Crude Oil Futures Sep. 2011 Contracts Since we last conducted this survey, prices
US$ US$/bbl, Daily High/Low/Close for WTI have dropped below the US$100-per-
130 barrel level while Brent has slipped, too
125 Brent, Daily Close, (though the differential remains marked).
120 Sep. 2011 Contract (ICE)
Concerns over the faltering US recovery and
115
Beijings tightening of monetary policy left
110
105
some traders envisioning lower oil demand
100 in the near future.
95 Moreover, Saudi Arabia moved to expand
90 WTI, Sep. 2011 Contract production while the International Energy
85 (NYMEX) Daily High/Low/Close Agency released strategic crude reserves in
80 a bid to temper price surges on the back of
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 the Libyan conflict.

JULY 2011 U.S. GASOLINE & HEATING OIL
Survey Date Spot Price RBOB1Gasoline (US) Forecasts, US$/gallon

1
Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending
(July 25): US$3.161
Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
P K Verleger 3.250 3.250 3.550 3.670 16.1% 3.800 3.600 3.600 3.800 4.000 3.800
GKI Research 3.180 3.320 3.320 3.180 0.6% 3.180 3.180 3.180 3.180 3.320 3.320
Societe Generale 2.900 2.770 2.890 3.010 -4.8% na na na na na na
Cntr for Global Energy Std 2.930 2.720 2.700 2.980 -5.7% 2.810 na na na na na
Deutsche Bank 2.950 3.000 3.050 2.950 -6.7% 2.950 2.950 3.050 3.050 3.050 3.050
Consensus (Mean) 3.042 3.012 3.102 3.158 -0.1% 3.185 3.243 3.277 3.343 3.457 3.390
High 3.250 3.320 3.550 3.670 3.800 3.600 3.600 3.800 4.000 3.800
Low 2.900 2.720 2.700 2.950 2.810 2.950 3.050 3.050 3.050 3.050
RBOB Gasoline (US), Spot Price Consensus Forecasts for RBOB Gasoline
US$ US$/gallon Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
US$
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.4
US$/gallon Consensus
3.0
2.5
Prior to July 2004, unleaded gasoline/ 3.3
regular non-oxygenated 3.2

2.0
3.1
1.5
3.0
1.0
2.9
0.5
2.8
0.0 RBOB NYMEX Futures
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2.7
RBOB/Heating Oil #2 Futures Sep. 2011 Contracts (NYMEX) Futures Prices For RBOB and Heating Oil
US$/gallon, Daily High/Low/Close US$ Prices as of Survey Date
US$
3.4
3.4 Heating Oil #2, Daily Close,
US$/gallon
Sep. 2011 Contract 3.3
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.1
Heating Oil #2
2.8 NYMEX Futures
3.0
2.6 RBOB Gasoline,
2.4
Sep. 2011 Contract, 2.9
Daily High/Low/Close 2.8

2.2 RBOB NYMEX Futures
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 2.7
Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013
US Crack Spread US Debt Concerns Affect Prices

US$ per barrel
40 High gasoline costs have weighed on the US
30
consumer, contributing to concerns over the
strength of the recovery there. Summer driv-
20
ing season is also acting as a spur to prices.
10
US gasoline stockpiles rose for the first time
0
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
in five weeks, gaining 757,000 barrels to
2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 212.5 million, according to the Energy de-
Crude oil is refined into numerous saleable products including gaso- partment. Meanwhile, crude oil supplies
line and heating oil. The crack spread is used to estimate the profitability dropped, most recently to a four-month low,
of refining the raw material. When the spread is positive, the price of the boosting prices for heating oil as well.
refined products is above that of crude oil, helping profitability. The chart
above shows a commonly used 3:2:1 crack spread, reflecting a ratio of Despite gasoline being buoyed recently by
refinery output of 2 barrels of RBOB gasoline and 1 barrel of heating oil signs that US policymakers could reach a
from 3 barrels of WTI crude oil. compromise on public spending, concerns
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011
remain with no agreement in sight. 7
EUROPEAN GAS OIL JULY 2011
Survey Date Spot Price Gas Oil (Europe, Rotterdam) Forecasts, US$/tonne
(July 25): US$988.75
from spot
P K Verleger 980.0 1080.0 1050.0 1040.0 5.2% 1100.0 1180.0 1100.0 1120.0 1110.0 1200.0
GKI Research 950.0 990.0 990.0 950.0 -3.9% 950.0 950.0 950.0 950.0 990.0 990.0
Deutsche Bank 930.0 960.0 970.0 930.0 -5.9% 940.0 945.0 1075.0 1075.0 1075.0 1075.0
Cntr for Global Energy Std 950.0 970.0 918.0 929.0 -6.0% 925.0 na na na na na
Consensus (Mean) 951.5 989.7 976.8 959.5 -3.0% 978.8 1025.0 1041.7 1048.3 1058.3 1088.3
High 980.0 1080.0 1050.0 1040.0 1100.0 1180.0 1100.0 1120.0 1110.0 1200.0
Low 930.0 948.6 918.0 929.0 925.0 945.0 950.0 950.0 990.0 990.0
Gas Oil, Rotterdam, Spot Price Gas Oil Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$
US$/tonne US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
1400
1100
1200 US$/tonne
1075
1000 Consensus
1050
800
600 1025
400
1000
200
975
Gas Oil
0 Futures (ICE)
Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n
950
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Spot De c 2 0 1 1 Ju n 2 0 1 2 De c 2 0 1 2 Ju n 2 0 1 3 De c 2 0 1 3
Gas Oil & Heating Oil Futures Sep. 2011 Contracts (ICE/NYMEX) US Heating Oil and Gas Oil Futures Prices
US$ Prices as of Survey Date
US$/tonne, Daily High/Low/Close
US$ 1010
1100 Gas Oil, Sep. 2011 Contract (ICE) US$/tonne
1050 Daily High/Low/Close Gas Oil Futures (ICE)
1000
1000
950
900 990
850 Heating Oil, Daily Close,

800 Sep. 2011 Contract (NYMEX)
980
750 US Heating Oil #2
700
NYMEX Futures
970
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013
OIL & DISTILLATE FUTURES SPECIFICATIONS JULY 2011

WTI: Futures Market: NYMEX Low Sweet Crude Pricing: US$/ RBOB Gasoline: Futures Market: NYMEX Reformulated
bbl Contract Size: 1,000bbl (42,000 gallons) Delivery Dates: Con- Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending Pricing: US$/gallon Contract
secutive months for the first 6 years, June and December for the Size: 1000 bbl (42,000 gallons) Delivery Dates: 36 consecutive
7th to 9th years. Contracts Traded: 168,652,144 (2010). months on a rolling basis. Contracts Traded: 27,898,698 (2010).
Brent: Futures Market: ICE (IntercontinentalExchange) Pricing:
US$/bbl Lot Size: 1,000bbl (42,000 gallons) Delivery Options: RBOB is a wholesale non-oxygenated blendstock traded in the
72 consecutive months then June and December for a further 3 New York Harbor barge market that is ready for the addition of
years. Contracts Traded: 100,022,169 (2010) Page 6 10% ethanol at the truck rack. Page 7
Heating Oil #2: Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/gallon Gas Oil: Futures Market: ICE (IntercontinentalExchange) Pric-
Contract Size: 1,000 bbl (42,000 gallons) Delivery Dates: 36 Con- ing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 100 tonnes Delivery Dates: 36
secutive months Contracts Traded: 26,970,106 (2010). consecutive months, then quarterly to 48 months, then half-yearly
to 60 months Contracts Traded: 52,296,582 (2010).
The heating oil futures contract may also be used to hedge diesel
fuel and jet fuel, both of which trade in the cash market at an often ICE Gasoil Futures are used as a pricing reference for distillate
stable premium to New York harbor heating oil futures. Page 7 trading in Europe and beyond. Page 8

JULY 2011 NATURAL GAS
Survey Date Spot Price Natural Gas (US, Henry Hub) Forecasts, US$/MMBtu
(July 25): US$4.465
from spot
RBS 4.379 4.379 5.500 5.500 23.2% 5.500 5.500 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000
Investec 5.000 5.000 5.250 5.250 17.6% 5.250 5.250 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500
Credit Suisse 4.450 4.670 4.900 5.100 14.2% 5.300 5.400 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500
CIBC 4.500 4.750 5.000 5.000 12.0% 5.250 5.400 na na na na
Deutsche Bank 4.000 4.750 5.250 5.000 12.0% 5.250 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500
UBS 4.700 5.000 5.000 5.000 12.0% 5.000 5.000 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500
Econ Intelligence Unit 4.600 5.000 5.400 4.850 8.6% 5.000 5.800 6.000 5.400 5.600 5.800
Commonwealth Bank 4.308 4.748 4.798 4.733 6.0% 4.814 5.254 5.278 5.110 5.193 5.625
Macquarie Bank 4.100 4.400 5.300 4.700 5.3% 5.200 5.800 5.500 5.000 5.500 6.000
BNP Paribas 4.020 4.450 4.810 4.620 3.5% 4.340 5.030 5.410 5.130 4.820 5.560
Wilson HTM 4.250 4.250 4.500 4.500 0.8% 4.750 4.750 5.000 5.000 5.250 5.250
Barclays Capital 4.300 4.500 4.500 4.400 -1.5% 4.400 4.900 na na na na
GKI Research 4.410 4.600 4.600 4.400 -1.5% 4.400 4.400 4.400 4.400 4.600 4.600
P K Verleger 4.500 4.800 5.000 4.200 -5.9% 4.200 4.500 5.000 4.000 4.100 4.400
Consensus (Mean) 4.380 4.610 4.954 4.764 6.7% 4.904 5.177 5.382 5.170 5.255 5.436
High 5.000 5.000 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.800 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000
Low 4.000 3.860 4.500 4.200 4.200 4.400 4.400 4.000 4.100 4.400
Survey Date Spot Price UK Natural Gas Forecasts, UK/therm

(July 25): UK0.554 Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
Barclays Capital 0.500 0.700 0.675 0.675 21.8% 0.675 0.675 na na na na
GKI Research 0.610 0.640 0.640 0.610 10.1% 0.610 0.610 0.610 0.610 0.640 0.640
Deutsche Bank 0.564 0.604 0.643 0.582 5.1% 0.601 0.710 0.760 0.760 0.760 0.760
BNP Paribas 0.570 0.640 0.600 0.520 -6.1% 0.510 0.580 0.560 0.490 0.470 0.540
Consensus (Mean) 0.545 0.627 0.632 0.577 4.2% 0.599 0.644 0.643 0.620 0.623 0.647
High 0.610 0.700 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.710 0.760 0.760 0.760 0.760
Low 0.480 0.550 0.600 0.500 0.510 0.580 0.560 0.490 0.470 0.540
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub); UK Natural Gas US Natural Gas

US$/MMBtu US$/MMBtu; UK/therm UK/therm Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
16.0 2.0 US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
14.0 US Natu r al Gas (lh s ) 1.8 5.50
UK Natu r al Gas (r h s ) 1.6 5.25

US$/MMBtu
12.0
1.4
5.00
Consensus
10.0 1.2
4.75
NYMEX
8.0 1.0 Futures
6.0 0.8 4.50
0.6
4.0 4.25
0.4
2.0 0.2
4.00
Energy Information
0.0 0.0 3.75 Admin., USA (July 11)
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 3.50
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013
Natural Gas Futures UK/therm

Shale Raises Hopes for US Natural Gas
US$/MMBtu
US$/MMBtu, Daily High/Low/Close The US natural gas industry could be head-
5.0 0.66 ing for a boom on the back of shale gas ex-
4.8 0.63 traction. Despite concerns over the econom-
0.60 ics of developing this unconventional fuel
4.6
0.57 source, the US is well-positioned to become
4.4 an even more sizeable natural gas producer.
0.54
4.2 Prices between US crude and natural gas
UK Natural Gas, 1- 0.51
have diverged in recent years as a result of
4.0 NYMEX Sep. 2011 Futures Month Forward Close 0.48 shale output which has pushed down prices.
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) (UK/therm, rhs)
3.8 0.45 Natural gas is seen as a cheaper source of
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 fossil-fuel energy and the disparity in prices
could last over the foreseeable future.
COAL JULY 2011
*free-on-board.
Consensus Price for Australian Coking Coal Forecasts (Contract Prices*), US$/metric tonne, fob
Q3 2011: US$305.5e Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
Macquarie Bank 315.0 285.0 280.0 290.0 -5.1% 260.0 260.0 245.0 255.0 240.0 225.0
Citigroup 320.0 300.0 280.0 280.0 -8.3% 270.0 270.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 240.0
Investec 307.0 307.0 280.0 280.0 -8.3% 260.0 260.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0
Deloitte Access Economics 280.0 280.0 275.0 275.0 -10.0% 270.0 270.0 265.0 265.0 260.0 na
BoA Merrill Lynch 315.0 300.0 290.0 270.0 -11.6% 250.0 250.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0
Morgan Stanley 307.5 307.5 268.8 268.8 -12.0% 268.8 268.8 253.8 253.8 253.8 253.8
Credit Suisse 280.0 260.0 265.0 265.0 -13.3% 265.0 265.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0
Deutsche Bank 292.5 262.5 262.5 262.5 -14.1% 262.5 262.5 190.0 190.0 190.0 190.0
ANZ 315.0 290.0 270.0 260.0 -14.9% 250.0 260.0 260.0 265.0 270.0 270.0
National Australia Bank 312.0 280.0 270.0 260.0 -14.9% 250.0 230.0 230.0 230.0 230.0 230.0
Wilson HTM 315.0 260.0 260.0 250.0 -18.2% 250.0 240.0 240.0 180.0 180.0 180.0
BREE 289.0 289.0 246.0 246.0 -19.5% 246.0 246.0 na na na na
RBS 285.0 265.0 245.0 225.0 -26.4% 225.0 225.0 220.0 180.0 180.0 180.0
UBS 315.0 250.0 210.0 205.0 -32.9% 190.0 180.0 185.0 180.0 170.0 160.0
Consensus (Mean) 305.5 279.0 264.5 258.0 -15.5% 251.6 249.1 235.8 228.9 226.6 220.5
High 325.0 307.5 290.0 290.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 270.0
Low 280.0 250.0 210.0 205.0 190.0 180.0 185.0 180.0 170.0 160.0
Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts (Contract Prices*), US$/metric tonne, fob
Q3 2011: US$126.8e Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
Citigroup 130.00 130.00 130.00 142.00 12.0% 142.00 142.00 142.00 150.00 150.00 150.00
BoA Merrill Lynch 130.00 130.00 130.00 140.00 10.4% 140.00 140.00 140.00 110.00 110.00 110.00
Deutsche Bank 130.00 130.00 130.00 140.00 10.4% 140.00 140.00 140.00 120.00 120.00 120.00
Investec 130.00 130.00 137.50 137.50 8.5% 137.50 137.50 132.50 132.50 132.50 132.50
ANZ 130.00 130.00 130.00 135.00 6.5% 135.00 135.00 135.00 140.00 140.00 140.00
Morgan Stanley 129.85 129.85 129.85 135.00 6.5% 135.00 135.00 140.00 140.00 140.00 140.00
BIPE 125.00 127.00 130.00 132.00 4.1% 135.00 137.00 na na na na
Credit Suisse 124.00 128.00 132.00 132.00 4.1% 132.00 132.00 141.00 141.00 141.00 141.00
Macquarie Bank 129.85 129.85 129.85 120.00 -5.3% 120.00 120.00 120.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Wilson HTM 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 -5.3% 125.00 125.00 125.00 115.00 115.00 115.00
BREE 130.00 130.00 130.00 117.00 -7.7% 117.00 117.00 na na na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 120.30 115.00 110.00 112.00 -11.6% 115.00 110.00 105.00 110.00 105.00 100.00
RBS 115.00 105.00 100.00 95.00 -25.1% 95.00 95.00 95.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
Consensus (Mean) 126.76 126.98 127.28 127.17 0.3% 128.23 127.03 127.73 121.42 121.42 119.94
High 130.00 140.00 140.00 142.00 142.00 142.00 142.00 150.00 150.00 150.00
Low 115.00 105.00 100.00 95.00 95.00 95.00 95.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
US$ Coking Coal and Steaming Coal Prices Consensus Forecasts and Futures Prices
US$/metric tonne Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
350
Australian Coking Coal 325
300 (Japanese Contract Prices) US$/tonne
Australian Coking Coal
275
250 Consensus
200 225
Australian Steaming Coal
150 (Monthly Spot Prices)
175
Australian Steaming Coal Australian Steaming Coal
100
(Japanese Contract Prices) 125
50
75
0 Central Appalachian US Coal
Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Ja n Futures (US$/short ton, NYMEX)
25
Baltic Capesize Index of Shipping Rates Coal Energy Information Agency (US)
2000 0
Note: Shipping costs can add US$24-34 per
World Demand Forecasts (July 27, 2010)
1500 0 metric tonne to the delivered cost of coal on 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1000 0 some routes. Total OECD Consumption
500 0 (Quadrillion Btu) 46.7 43.1 44.5 44.8 45.4 46.4 48.3
0 Total World Consumption
Ja n Jan Jan Ja n Jan Jan Ja n Jan Jan Ja n Jan
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
(Quadrillion Btu) 122 130 139 152 168 186 206

JULY 2011 URANIUM
Survey Date Spot Price Uranium U3O8 Forecasts, US$/lb

from spot
Credit Suisse 56.0 60.0 65.0 65.0 21.5% 65.0 65.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0
Deutsche Bank 68.0 68.0 65.0 65.0 21.5% 65.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0
Wilson HTM 68.0 68.0 65.0 65.0 21.5% 65.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0
Morgan Stanley 53.0 57.0 60.0 62.0 15.9% 64.0 65.0 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5
Macquarie Bank 58.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 12.1% 52.0 52.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0
ANZ 53.6 53.0 54.5 58.0 8.4% 62.0 65.5 68.5 71.5 74.0 76.0
Investec 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 2.8% 55.0 55.0 58.8 58.8 58.8 58.8
RBS 50.0 50.0 55.0 55.0 2.8% 60.0 60.0 65.0 65.0 70.0 70.0
Citigroup 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 -6.5% 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
UBS 54.0 52.0 50.0 50.0 -6.5% 54.0 54.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0
Consensus (Mean) 56.5 57.7 58.4 59.1 10.4% 60.0 60.6 64.1 64.6 65.4 65.9
High 68.0 68.0 65.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0
Low 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0
Uranium U3O8, Spot Price Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

US$ US$/lb Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
US$
66
150
US$/lb
125
64 Consensus
62
100
60
75
58
50 56 NYMEX Futures
25 54
0 52
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 50

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013
Price Drop Expected to Reverse

Uranium Futures Sep. 2011 Contract (NYMEX)
US$ US$/lb, Closing Price The price of uranium fell in Q2 on the news
76 that both Japan and Germany are planning to
Uranium futures started trading on phase out nuclear power over the next few
72 NYMEX in May 2007. Volume is thin
due to off-market trading and its
years. However, China continues to expand
68
specialised and limited use. its nuclear programme and, with the prospect
64 of continued demand from emerging markets,
60 long-term forecasts for the price are fairly bull-
56 ish.
Uranium prices are expected to climbed over
52
the next 18 months but are not expected to
48 reach the pre-Japan crisis level of above $70
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011
in the near future.
World Nuclear Electricity Production (2008) Uranium futures began trading on NYMEX in May
Producers Installed Capacity Nuclear power as a % of 2007 in an attempt to introduce greater price trans-
(% share of World) (Gigawatts) total domestic elctricity parency. Volumes and liqudity are currently very low
USA 31% USA 101 France 77% (see chart above left).
France 16% France 63 Germany 24% Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/lb Contract
Japan 9% Japan 48 Japan 24% Size: 250lbs Trading Months: 60 consecutive
Russia 6% Russia 23 USA 20% months. Settlement price: The final settlement price
S. Korea 6% Germany 20 UK 14% is the spot-month end price published by UxC.

ALUMINIUM JULY 2011
Survey Date Spot Price Aluminium Forecasts, US$/metric tonne
(July 25): US$2573 Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
Deutsche Bank 2650 2800 2900 3050 18.5% 3000 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800
Wilson HTM 2726 2726 2976 2976 15.7% 2901 2901 2800 2800 2800 2800
Morgan Stanley 2690 2734 2778 2822 9.7% 2734 2778 2976 2976 2976 2976
BNP Paribas 2535 2665 2750 2800 8.8% 2840 2910 2950 2950 2950 2950
RBS 2601 2690 2690 2800 8.8% 2756 2866 2998 2998 3395 3395
Barclays Capital 2650 2700 2650 2750 6.9% 2700 2900 2850 2850 2850 2850
HWWI 2650 2700 2730 2750 6.9% 2750 2800 2820 2850 2850 2850
Metal Bulletin Research 2650 2680 2700 2720 5.7% 2750 2750 2760 2760 2760 2760
BIPE 2532 2613 2662 2712 5.4% 2815 2834 na na na na
BoA Merrill Lynch 2626 2601 2551 2701 5.0% 3001 2601 2901 3001 3001 3001
Citigroup 2775 2750 2725 2700 4.9% 2675 2650 2625 2600 2590 2575
Societe Generale 2700 2580 2620 2680 4.2% na na na na na na
ANZ 2519 2546 2568 2546 -1.0% 2469 2392 2337 2304 2282 2260
Credit Suisse 2535 2646 2535 2535 -1.5% 2535 2535 2535 2535 2535 2535
Oxford Economics 2555 2564 2530 2522 -2.0% 2505 2479 2454 2441 2417 2412
Investec 2535 2535 2520 2520 -2.1% 2520 2520 2756 2756 2841 2841
Commonwealth Bank 2727 2553 2571 2508 -2.5% 2559 2606 2746 2780 2795 2818
Econ Intelligence Unit 2550 2520 2520 2500 -2.8% 2480 2465 2450 2450 2400 na
Prometeia 2412 2353 2430 2480 -3.6% 2500 2513 2510 2414 2451 2470
IHS Global Insight 2523 2515 2500 2470 -4.0% 2428 2375 2391 2390 2395 2405
National Australia Bank 2500 2450 2400 2350 -8.7% 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300
BREE 2580 2580 2330 2330 -9.4% 2330 2330 na na na na
UBS 2315 2205 2205 2205 -14.3% 2205 2293 2535 2535 2535 2535
Macquarie Bank 2646 2646 2205 2205 -14.3% 2425 2425 2646 2646 2646 2646
Consensus (Mean) 2591 2598 2585 2610 1.4% 2616 2610 2673 2673 2694 2709
High 2775 2800 2976 3050 3001 2910 2998 3001 3395 3395
Low 2315 2205 2205 2205 2205 2293 2300 2300 2282 2260
Standard Deviation 105 133 190 217 219 210 215 232 277 277
US$ Aluminium Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
3500
US$/metric tonne US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
2800
3000 LME Futures
2500 2700
2000 Consensus
2600
1500
1000 US$/metric tonne

Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2500
Positive Industrial Production Outlook

Aluminium 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME
Aluminium hit a recent high of US$2803 in
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
US$ 000s
early May but, since then, the market has
2850 3-Month Forward 4775 seen a retrenchment. The weakness is the
2750
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) 4725
result of easing oil prices, the ongoing Euro
4675
2650 4625 zone debt crisis and slowing US recovery.
4575 In addition, Shanghai future exchange inven-
2550 4525
2450 4475 tories fell by 56.7% in the year to end-June
4425 2011. China accounts for 40% of global alu-
2350 4375
LME Warehouse 4325 minium output and has seen rising produc-
2250
Stocks, Daily (rhs) 4275
2150 4225 tion recently, but Beijing is also planning to
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul close 22 aluminium smelters by the end of
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 the year, countering increases in supply.
World demand for the metal is expected to
Aluminium Production (2009) Consumption (2008) expand.
Production mn tn % of world Consumption mn tn % of world
Aluminium: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
1. China 12.84 34.8% 1. China 12.41 32.8%
2. Russia 3.82 10.3% 2. USA 5.62 14.9% tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
3. Canada 3.03 8.2% 3. Japan 2.25 6.0% Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
4. Australia 1.94 5.3% 4. Germany 1.95 5.2% for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
5. USA 1.73 4.7% 5. S. Korea 1.31 3.5% Wednesday for 7 months out to 123 months. Con-
World 36.90 World 37.80 tracts Traded: 46,540,000 (2010).

JULY 2011 ALUMINA & ALUMINIUM ALLOY
Survey Date Spot Price Alumina Forecasts, US$/metric tonne

(July 25): US$415.0
from spot
Deutsche Bank 439.0 493.0 512.0 539.0 29.9% 530.0 493.0 488.0 488.0 488.0 488.0
Morgan Stanley 424.8 431.8 450.0 457.2 10.2% 442.9 450.0 485.2 485.2 485.2 485.2
BREE 403.0 403.0 410.0 410.0 -1.2% 410.0 410.0 na na na na
Citigroup 415.6 411.9 408.1 404.4 -2.6% 400.7 396.7 399.1 395.3 393.7 391.5
RBS 390.0 390.1 403.3 403.3 -2.8% 419.9 413.3 429.8 449.6 449.6 509.1
ANZ 415.6 407.3 410.8 394.6 -4.9% 382.6 358.7 350.4 345.5 342.2 338.9
Credit Suisse 390.0 395.0 395.0 385.0 -7.2% 375.0 365.0 370.0 380.0 390.0 400.0
UBS 365.0 340.0 345.0 350.0 -15.7% 350.0 350.0 365.0 365.0 365.0 365.0
Investec 350.0 350.0 344.0 344.0 -17.1% 347.0 347.0 364.0 364.0 367.0 367.0
Macquarie Bank 400.0 400.0 310.0 310.0 -25.3% 340.0 340.0 370.0 370.0 370.0 370.0
Consensus (Mean) 396.3 396.3 393.4 395.4 -4.7% 399.6 389.7 403.5 407.1 408.2 414.5
High 439.0 493.0 512.0 539.0 530.0 493.0 488.0 488.0 488.0 509.1
Low 350.0 340.0 310.0 310.0 340.0 340.0 350.4 345.5 342.2 338.9
Alumina, Metallurgical Grade, Spot Price Alumina Consensus Forecasts

US$ US$/metric tonne Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
700
US$
600 420
Consensus
500
410
400
300 400
200
390
100
US$/metric tonne
0 380
Jan 1999 Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011 Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013
Alumina is derived from bauxite ore and is used to produce primary alu- World Production of Alumina (2009, world
minium at a ratio of two tonnes of alumina per tonne of aluminium. Prices can
be linked to the LME primary aluminium price. total was 76.8 million tonnes)
Aluminium Alloy prices provide a reference basis for the secondary alu- Producer % of world total
minium market. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 1. China 31.0%
20 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays 2. Australia 26.0%
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7 months 3. Brazil 11.2%
out to 27 months. Contracts Traded: 582,398 (2008). 4. USA 4.0%
Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price, LME Aluminium vs Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price Differential
US$ US$/metric tonne US$ US$/metric tonne
900
3000
Price on Survey Date: US$2355 700
2500
500
2000
300
1500
100
1000 -100
500 -300
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

COPPER JULY 2011
Survey Date Spot Price Copper, Grade A, Forecasts, US$/metric tonne
from spot
Macquarie Bank 11023 11023 12125 12125 26.0% 11023 11023 8818 8818 6614 6614
Deutsche Bank 9500 9900 11000 12000 24.7% 10500 10000 9500 9500 9500 9500
Wilson HTM 9703 9703 11503 11503 19.6% 10253 10253 9502 9502 9502 9502
BIPE 9726 10103 10868 11230 16.7% 11573 11865 na na na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 9547 9922 10142 10583 10.0% 10363 9922 9701 9922 9260 na
BNP Paribas 9650 10675 11000 10500 9.1% 9500 9000 8750 8750 8750 8750
Morgan Stanley 9811 10141 10141 10362 7.7% 9921 10141 8378 8378 8378 8378
RBS 9744 10009 10009 10251 6.6% 10251 10494 11023 11023 12015 12015
Credit Suisse 9259 9700 10141 10141 5.4% 9700 9259 8377 8377 8377 8377
BREE 9544 9544 10050 10050 4.5% 10050 10050 na na na na
ANZ 9557 9865 10086 10030 4.3% 9810 9645 9424 9038 8708 8487
HWWI 9750 9800 9900 10000 4.0% 10500 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000
Oxford Economics 9562 9584 9670 9761 1.5% 9634 9290 8935 8580 8488 8496
Prometeia 9552 9440 9473 9541 -0.8% 9496 9391 9445 9204 9252 9349
Citigroup 9750 9650 9575 9500 -1.2% 9400 9175 8965 8755 8540 8325
Investec 9149 9149 9370 9370 -2.6% 9590 9590 9149 9149 9149 9149
Societe Generale 8900 9280 9470 9300 -3.3% na na na na na na
UBS 8708 9039 8488 8488 -11.8% 8157 7496 7275 7055 7055 6834
Consensus (Mean) 9559 9824 10049 10202 6.0% 10076 9838 9287 9240 9080 9021
High 11023 12000 12125 12125 12800 12400 11200 11200 12015 12015
Low 8708 9039 8488 8488 8157 7496 7275 7055 6614 6614
US$ Copper, Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$/metric tonne US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
10000 10500
9000 US$/metric tonne
10250
8000
Consensus
7000
10000
6000
COMEX Futures
5000 9750
4000
9500
3000 LME Futures
2000 9250
1000
Steady Gains over the Next Year

Copper 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes, Chinese copper imports were up 9.9% (y-o-
US$ 000s y) in June, a sign that the country may be
10250 500
returning to the external market having re-
9750 475 duced inventories in H1. However, LME ware-
house stockpiles have risen 36% since De-
450
9250 cember which, if released on to the market,
425 would dampen price growth. Meanwhile, re-
8750 cent debt fears in the US and Euro zone have
400
3-Month Forward, Daily raised fears of developed world growth stag-
8250 LME Warehouse
High/Low/Close (lhs) 375 nating, dampening the cost of copper.
Stocks, Daily (rhs)
7750 350 Our panel expects copper to gain over the
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 next year before falling back to just above
the $9000 mark.
World Production of Copper (2009, world production Copper: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne
was 15.8 million tonnes) Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for
Mine Production Smelter Production cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month
% of world total % of world total to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday
1. Chile 34.1% 1. China 21.2% for 7 months out to 123 months. Contracts Traded:
2. Peru 8.1% 2. Chile 12.2% 29,960,000 (2010). US Futures Market: COMEX
3. USA 7.6% 3. Japan 10.4% Pricing: USc/lb Lot Size: 25,000lbs Deliverability:
4. China 6.5% 4. India 5.6% 24 consecutive months.
JULY 2011 NICKEL
Survey Date Spot Price Nickel Forecasts, US$/metric tonne

from spot
Deutsche Bank 24000 26500 28000 30000 26.2% 30000 28000 27000 27000 27000 27000
Wilson HTM 25257 25257 29008 29008 22.0% 29008 29008 27007 27007 27007 27007
Citigroup 27560 28000 27500 27250 14.6% 27000 26875 26415 25560 24690 23825
HWWI 25000 25500 26000 27000 13.5% 27800 28000 28000 29000 29000 29000
BIPE 24452 25043 26211 26543 11.6% 27522 28270 na na na na
National Australia Bank 25000 25500 26000 26500 11.4% 25500 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000
RBS 23038 24471 26014 26014 9.4% 26014 27998 27998 27998 31967 31967
Prometeia 23171 23029 24503 25664 7.9% 26204 26434 26255 25106 25768 26310
ANZ 23547 24084 24911 25131 5.7% 24580 24029 23478 23147 22817 22265
IHS Global Insight 23668 24850 25577 24850 4.5% 23529 23933 25841 26030 24710 25012
Morgan Stanley 23149 23700 24251 24471 2.9% 24361 23920 23810 23810 23810 23810
Investec 23148 23148 24251 24251 2.0% 24251 24251 24251 24251 25353 25353
BoA Merrill Lynch 24994 23505 21505 23505 -1.2% 22505 17504 18004 18504 18504 18504
BREE 24733 24733 22875 22875 -3.8% 22875 22875 na na na na
BNP Paribas 23400 24350 23000 22000 -7.5% 20750 20250 20000 20000 20000 20000
Macquarie Bank 23149 22597 21495 21495 -9.6% 20393 20393 19290 19290 19290 19290
Credit Suisse 22487 22487 22046 20944 -11.9% 19841 18739 19841 19841 19841 19841
UBS 22156 24471 22046 20723 -12.9% 20723 20723 20723 20723 20723 20723
Consensus (Mean) 24025 24514 24654 24783 4.2% 24426 23922 23602 23640 23581 23568
High 28400 28000 29008 30000 30000 29008 28000 29000 31967 31967
Low 22156 21758 21495 20723 19841 17504 18004 18504 18504 18504
Nickel Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$ US$/metric tonne US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
60,000 25000
50,000 24750
24500
40,000
Consensus
24250
30,000
24000
20,000 23750
LME Futures
10,000 23500
23250
0 US$/metric tonne
Nickel 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Marked Decline in Nickel Prices
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close The price of nickel has slumped by over 25%
US$ tonnes
since its three-year high of US$29425 in Feb-
30000 140000
ruary and has become the worst-performing
3-Month Forward 135000
28000 base metal on the London Metal Exchange
Daily High/Low/ Close (lhs) 130000
thus far this year. This is somewhat due to
26000 125000
the unwinding from a boom in values driven
120000 by the failure of mines to meet buoyant Chi-
24000 115000
LME Warehouse nese demand at the time.
22000
Stocks, Daily (rhs) 110000 Since then, though, output has risen strongly
105000 this year to flood the market, and futures
20000 100000 (and our panellists) suggest lower prices to
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 come. Purchasing patterns in the stainless
steel industry also dominate nickel values.
Nickel Production and Consumption by World Share (2008) Nickel prices are closely related to demand from
Production 000s tn % of world Consumption 000s tn % of world stainless steel producers who account for about
1. Russia 264 19.3% 1. China 305 23.6% two-thirds of total demand. Futures Market: LME
2. Canada 176 12.9% 2. Japan 185 14.3% Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 6 tonnes Deliv-
3. China 171 12.5% 3. USA 121 9.3% ery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
4. Japan 156 11.4% 4. Germany 90 6.9% Wednesdays for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then
5. Australia 108 7.9% 5. S. Korea 73 5.6% every third Wednesday for 7 months out to 63
World 1368 World 1295 months. Contracts Traded: 7,340,000 (2010).
LEAD JULY 2011
Survey Date Spot Price Lead Forecasts, US$/metric tonne

from spot
BNP Paribas 2715 2830 2950 3000 12.4% 3025 3125 3225 3225 3225 3225
Deutsche Bank 2600 2800 2900 3000 12.4% 3000 2900 2850 2850 2850 2850
Wilson HTM 2701 2701 2951 2951 10.5% 2951 2951 2851 2851 2851 2851
BIPE 2601 2665 2778 2889 8.2% 3041 3143 na na na na
Credit Suisse 2535 2646 2866 2866 7.3% 3086 3086 3527 3527 3527 3527
Morgan Stanley 2690 2734 2778 2712 1.6% 2646 2778 2579 2579 2579 2579
HWWI 2600 2620 2650 2700 1.1% 2700 2700 2650 2650 2630 2630
Commonwealth Bank 2817 3139 3082 2673 0.1% 2580 2817 2864 2876 2838 2814
Investec 2535 2535 2646 2646 -0.9% 2866 2866 2866 2866 2756 2756
BREE 2630 2630 2630 2630 -1.5% na na na na na na
Macquarie Bank 2447 2579 2601 2601 -2.6% 2579 2646 2756 2756 2756 2756
RBS 2359 2491 2491 2601 -2.6% 2690 2800 3086 3086 3307 3307
ANZ 2636 2623 2623 2568 -3.8% 2502 2436 2370 2315 2271 2227
Citigroup 2650 2600 2560 2515 -5.8% 2465 2420 2375 2325 2280 2230
Prometeia 2567 2422 2403 2360 -11.6% 2327 2321 2331 2315 2539 2475
UBS 2315 2425 2315 2315 -13.3% 2315 2315 1984 1984 1984 1984
Consensus (Mean) 2580 2645 2664 2658 -0.4% 2685 2738 2704 2715 2700 2713
High 2817 3139 3082 3000 3100 3300 3527 3600 3527 3527
Low 2315 2422 2315 2315 2315 2280 1984 1911 1850 1887
Lead Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$ US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
US$/metric tonne
4000 2800
3500
3000
LME Futures
2500 2700
2000
1500 Consensus
1000 2600
500
0 US$/metric tonne
Lead 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks,LME Prices Steady

US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close China consumes around 40% of the worlds
US$ tonnes,
LME Warehouse 000s lead, with 80% used in the manufacture of
3000 340 car batteries. With the Chinese auto industry
Stocks, Daily (rhs)
320 expected to expand 5% this year and con-
2750 300 tinue growing, lead is likely to gain in the me-
280 dium term. The price of lead slackened in
2500 260 June, due to slower demand in the US and
240 Western Europe, however this tends to be a
3-Month Forward Daily seasonal trend and the fall in demand is no
2250 220
High/Low/Close (lhs)
200 more than has been seen in past summers.
2000 180
Our panel expects lead prices to remain con-
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 sistent, with forecasts over the next 3 years
remaining at or below US$2750.
Lead Production and Consumption (2009) Lead prices can be related to zinc prices as the
metals are co-produced. Demand is currently led
Production % of world total Consumption % of world total by increased demand for batteries in Asia. Futures
1. China 41.3% 1. China 44%
Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size:
2. Australia 14.5% 2. EU 17%
25 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month
3. USA 10.4% 3. USA 16% contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month to 6 month con-
4. Peru 7.7% 4. South Korea 3% tracts; then every third Wednesday for 7 months out
5. Mexico 3.7% 5. Japan 2% to 63 months. Contracts Traded: 6,000,000(2010).
JULY 2011 ZINC
Survey Date Spot Price Zinc, Special High Grade, Forecasts, US$/metric tonne
from spot
Deutsche Bank 2400 2550 2700 2850 17.5% 3100 2900 2750 2750 2750 2750
Wilson HTM 2476 2476 2776 2776 14.4% 3001 3001 2751 2751 2751 2751
BIPE 2283 2451 2555 2754 13.5% 2883 2920 na na na na
HWWI 2480 2500 2600 2650 9.2% 2650 2700 2720 2720 2750 2750
Credit Suisse 2425 2425 2646 2646 9.0% 2646 2646 2866 2866 2866 2866
Prometeia 2331 2432 2577 2645 9.0% 2665 2677 2663 2534 2619 2626
BNP Paribas 2360 2440 2550 2600 7.2% 2650 2800 2950 2950 2950 2950
Morgan Stanley 2337 2381 2425 2535 4.5% 2425 2535 2535 2535 2535 2535
Investec 2315 2315 2535 2535 4.5% 2646 2646 2866 2866 2756 2756
BREE 2385 2385 2513 2513 3.6% 2513 2513 na na na na
National Australia Bank 2400 2400 2450 2500 3.1% 2550 2600 2600 2600 2600 2600
Citigroup 2250 2200 2375 2475 2.0% 2550 2600 2525 2475 2450 2425
Macquarie Bank 2249 2381 2403 2403 -0.9% 2381 2601 2646 2646 2646 2646
UBS 2205 2425 2381 2381 -1.9% 2381 2315 2315 2205 2205 2094
ANZ 2317 2304 2348 2381 -1.9% 2359 2315 2271 2227 2193 2171
Barclays Capital 2400 2500 2250 2350 -3.1% 2600 2700 3000 3000 3000 3000
RBS 2050 2161 2205 2293 -5.5% 2491 2690 2998 2976 3197 3197
Consensus (Mean) 2324 2365 2442 2483 2.3% 2565 2600 2638 2645 2650 2647
High 2480 2550 2776 2850 3100 3001 3040 3200 3197 3197
Low 2050 2161 2150 2100 2125 2175 2196 2180 2193 2094
Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

US$ Zinc, Special High Grade Spot Price (LME) US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
5000 US$/metric tonne 2700
4500 US$/metric tonne Consensus

4000
2600
3500
3000
2500 2500
LME Futures
2000
1500
1000 2400
500
0
Zinc 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Gains Expected on Japanese Recovery
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes, Demand for zinc for use in steel produc-
US$ 000s
2700
3-Month Forward 900 tion should strengthen as Japanese rebuild-
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) ing picks up following the March earthquake
2600 850 and tsunami disaster. Despite this, overall
2500 fundamentals are weak in comparison to
800
2400 other industrial metals such as copper and
750 nickel. Warehouse stocks have steadily risen
2300
700 this year, though this may be in anticipation
2200
LME Warehouse of mine closures scheduled for 2013 that
2100 650
Stocks, Daily (rhs) may tighten the supply of the metal.
2000 600 Our panel forecasts steady gains in the price
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 of zinc over the next two years, before level-
ling out at around $2640 in 2013.
Zinc Production and Consumption (2009) Zincs primary use is in galvanising steel. Futures
Production % of world total Consumption % of world total Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size:
25 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Dates: Daily for cash
1. China 27.1% 1. China 40%
2. Peru 13.2% 2. EU 17% to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
3. Australia 11.3% 3. USA 8% month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7
4. USA 6.5% 4. Japan 4% months out to 63 months. Contracts Traded:
5. Canada 6.1% 5. South Korea 4% 18,070,000 (2010)
STEEL OCTOBER 2007
JULY 2011
Consensus Price for Hot Rolled Coil (Europe, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne
Q3 2011: US$803.8 e
from spot
MEPS 805.0 780.0 820.0 895.0 11.3% 900.0 885.0 915.0 970.0 960.0 920.0
Macquarie Bank 825.0 800.0 845.0 880.0 9.5% 810.0 780.0 815.0 835.0 825.0 825.0
BIPE 801.9 826.0 850.7 867.8 8.0% 876.4 885.2 na na na na
Citigroup 785.3 820.4 829.8 826.7 2.8% 823.6 820.5 813.9 805.4 796.9 788.5
IHS Global Insight 725.5 727.0 756.1 812.1 1.0% 844.5 811.6 749.1 728.5 760.6 813.4
Deutsche Bank 840.0 833.0 790.0 790.0 -1.7% 790.0 790.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0
Morgan Stanley 844.0 844.0 783.0 783.0 -2.6% 783.0 783.0 787.0 787.0 787.0 787.0
Consensus (Mean) 803.8 804.3 810.7 836.4 4.0% 832.5 822.2 796.7 804.3 804.9 805.7
High 844.0 844.0 850.7 895.0 900.0 885.2 915.0 970.0 960.0 920.0
Low 725.5 727.0 756.1 783.0 783.0 780.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0
Consensus Price for Hot Rolled Coil (USA, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/short ton
Q3 2011: US$779.0 e Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
Consensus (Mean)1 779.0 767.3 788.2 796.3 2.2% 776.9 762.6 780.4 785.8 786.8 806.6
High 921.8 881.8 866.8 895.0 856.8 856.8 870.0 870.0 870.0 870.0
Low 657.0 623.3 650.0 590.0 498.3 525.0 621.7 646.7 650.0 736.2
Consensus Price for Hot Rolled Coil (Asia, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne
Q3 2011: US$697.7 e
Consensus (Mean)1 697.7 699.0 748.0 761.2 9.1% 759.4 748.7 757.2 759.5 755.2 741.9
High 830.0 790.0 829.8 837.0 823.6 820.5 830.0 880.0 870.0 860.0
Low 555.3 557.1 559.0 560.9 594.8 596.8 598.7 600.7 584.8 586.8
1
China Keeps Prices Afloat
Steel Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices (MEPS)
US$/tonne US$/tonne Recent highs in steel prices have been at-
tributed to China under-reporting the amount
1400 of steel it produces. For example, the authori-
1200 ties announced that steel output was 627mn
1 metric tonne = 1.1023 short tons tonnes last year, but independent sources
1000 claim the figure was closer to 672mn. The
HRC - USA
discrepancy is because Beijing initially
800 (short ton)
planned to close heavily polluting plants and
600 HRC - Europe HRC - Asia reorganise its steel industry, but local demand
(metric tonne) (metric ton) for the commodity has kept the plants open.
400 Moreover, the China Iron & Steel Associa-
tion has announced that steel demand will
200 remain strong in the second half of this year
Steel Scrap - USA (short ton)
0 on the back of plans for social housing con-
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan struction. Meanwhile, the World Steel Asso-
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 ciation announced that all major steel-pro-
ducing regions showed increases in output.
Steel Production and Consumption (2009) Steel prices are generally set in contracts between
major producers and their clients. However, the
Producers % of world total Consumers % of world total London Metal Exchange in April 2008 launched
two steel billet contracts, one for Mediterranean
1. China 44.3 1. China 48.4
delivery and the other for delivery in the Far East.
2. Japan 7.8 2. United States 5.1 Whilst there are many varieties of steel, Hot Rolled
3. United States 5.7 3. India 4.9 Coil (HRC) is a commonly referenced price, but
4. Russia 4.7 4. Japan 4.7 regional complexities prevent the emergence of a
5. India 4.7 5. South Korea 4.0 clear benchmark at present.
JULY 2011 IRON ORE
1
Consensus Price for

Q3 2011: US272.65 e Australian Fine Iron Ore (Contract Prices) Forecasts, US/dmtu, fob
from spot
Macquarie Bank 272.90 255.16 290.65 280.81 3.0% 240.48 269.52 280.81 272.74 256.61 256.61
Deutsche Bank 269.40 285.50 277.40 277.40 1.7% 277.40 277.40 180.60 180.60 180.60 180.60
Morgan Stanley 285.93 285.93 276.21 276.21 1.3% 276.21 276.21 288.06 288.06 288.06 288.06
UBS 274.53 235.90 247.70 260.08 -4.6% 247.08 234.73 246.46 246.46 234.14 210.73
Wilson HTM 281.50 250.00 250.00 260.00 -4.6% 260.00 250.00 250.00 210.00 210.00 160.00
Credit Suisse 269.35 259.68 259.68 253.23 -7.1% 220.97 211.29 211.29 212.90 212.90 209.68
RBS 268.99 264.73 248.60 237.03 -13.1% 228.96 220.90 220.90 201.26 201.26 201.26
Citigroup 273.02 265.08 257.14 236.51 -13.3% 236.51 212.70 212.70 185.71 185.71 185.71
BREE 248.60 234.00 234.00 234.00 -14.2% 234.00 234.00 na na na na
Consensus (Mean) 272.65 259.29 254.75 254.87 -6.5% 247.38 244.75 236.15 230.40 224.43 214.64
High 285.93 285.93 290.65 280.81 277.40 277.40 288.06 288.06 288.06 288.06
Low 248.60 234.00 233.87 234.00 220.97 211.29 180.60 180.60 180.60 160.00
Consensus Price for Australian Lump Iron Ore (Contract Prices) Forecasts, US/dmtu, fob
Q3 2011: US307.2 e Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
Consensus (Mean)1 307.2 296.4 291.2 294.0 -4.3% 284.9 280.7 266.4 261.4 253.9 240.3
High 349.1 322.5 320.6 322.4 322.4 315.3 310.0 309.7 309.7 290.3
Low 284.4 285.1 259.6 257.9 245.3 234.0 198.4 198.4 198.4 198.4
Consensus Price for Brazilian Fine Iron Ore (Contract Prices) Forecasts, US/dmtu, fob
Q3 2011: US259.2 e Sep '11 Dec '11 Mar '12 Jun '12 % change Sep '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 Jun '13 Sep '13 Dec '13
from spot
Consensus (Mean) 1 259.16 242.75 241.80 254.01 -2.0% 242.48 247.52 235.61 245.10 237.32 225.47
High 266.13 255.97 287.48 279.85 258.06 269.16 278.17 270.53 255.27 255.27
Low 249.69 225.12 217.74 232.18 227.71 215.34 209.68 222.83 214.75 195.34
Iron ore is traded in world markets under contracts. Prices are set by negotia- Consensus Forecast Prices
tion between iron ore producers and steel manufacturers. Three suppliers, US Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
320
Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton accounted for 75% of ocean trade in iron ore US/dmtu
in 2006. Fines are the most heavily traded category (60% of global trade) 300 Au stralian
while lump iron ore trades at a higher price due to its higher iron content. Lum p
280
Producers dropped the annual benchmark price system in April 2010 in fa-
260
vour of quarterly prices based on prior average daily spot prices.
240
Brazilian Fine
Fine and Lump Iron Ore Prices 220
US US per dry long ton unit/dry metric tonne unit Australian Fine
200
325
180
300 Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013
275 1.016 metric tonnes = 1 long tonne Australian Lump
250
225 Brazilian Fine Baltic Capesize Index of Shipping Rates
200 20000
175
150
15000
125
Australian Fine
100
75 10000
50
25 5000
0
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Annual contract prices prior to April 2010 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

ADDITIONAL METALS OCTOBER 2007
JULY 2011
Forecasts for the metals shown on this and the next page were provided by the following leading forecasters:
ANZ Bank of America Merrill Lynch Barclays Capital

BNP Paribas Citigroup Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank Economist Intelligence Unit HWWI
IHS Global Insight Investec Macquarie Bank
Metal Bulletin Research Morgan Stanley Oxford Economics
Prometeia RBS SG Commodity Research
UBS Wilson HTM
Individual panellist forecasts for these minerals are available as part of our Excel spreadsheet service.
Please enquire at editors@consensuseconomics.com.
TIN Tin has its physical spot market

% US$ Tin, Spot Price, LME centred in Kuala Lumpur with the
Forecast Range US$/metric tonne
US$/metric Consensus change 35000 LME recognised as the principal
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low hedging market.
30000
Spot price 28145
Sep 2011 27252 -3.2% 33000 17967 25000
Futures Market: LME Pricing:
Dec 2011 27651 -1.8% 34300 18519 US$/tonne Contract Size: 5
Mar 2012 27436 -2.5% 34000 17637 20000 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Options:
Jun 2012 27625 -1.8% 36000 17637 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
15000
Sep 2012 26947 -4.3% 38000 16535 Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Dec 2012 26450 -6.0% 40000 16535 10000 month contracts; then every third
Mar 2013 24499 -13.0% 34000 13228 Wednesday for 7 months out to 15
5000
Jun 2013 24008 -14.7% 34000 13228 months. Contracts Traded:
Sep 2013 23520 -16.4% 34000 10141 0
1,550,000 (2010).
Dec 2013 23080 -18.0% 34000 10141 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
COBALT Colbalt is principally used as a

% US$ Cobalt, Spot Price super alloying agent because of
Forecast Range
Consensus change US$/lb its anti-corrosive properties. It is
60
US$/lb (Mean) from spot High Low commonly a by-product of
Spot price 16.55 50 nickel and used in the produc-
Sep 2011 17.58 6.2% 20.00 15.00 tion of alloys, catalysts and
Dec 2011 17.64 6.6% 20.00 15.00 40 batteries. The LME launched fu-
Mar 2012 16.29 -1.5% 20.00 10.00 tures contracts in cobalt in Febru-
Jun 2012 16.43 -0.7% 20.00 10.00 30
ary 2010.
Sep 2012 16.56 0.1% 20.00 10.00
-0.2% 20.00 10.00 20
Dec 2012 16.52 Futures Market: LME Pricing:
Mar 2013 16.74 1.2% 22.00 10.00 US$/tonne Contract Size: 1 tonne
10
Jun 2013 16.46 -0.5% 22.00 10.00 Delivery Options: 1 tonne lots in
Sep 2013 16.30 -1.5% 20.00 10.00
0 100-500kg drums of uniform size
Dec 2013 16.39 -1.0% 20.00 10.00 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan and weight.
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
MANGANESE Manganese is not exchange-

US$ Manganese, Spot Price traded so prices are established
%
Forecast Range US$/Metric Tonne Unit by negotiation between buyers
US$/metric Consensus change 18.0 (1/100 of a tonne) of and sellers. Negotiations occur in
tonne unit (Mean) from spot High Low 48-50% Manganese Ore line with the beginning of the Japa-
15.0
Spot price 5.400 nese fiscal year in April. Follow-
Sep 2011 5.926 9.7% 7.382 5.000 ing the setting of prices with Japa-
12.0
Dec 2011 6.026 11.6% 7.382 5.300 nese manufacturing companies,
Mar 2012 6.417 18.8% 8.366 5.300 similar settlement prices are set
9.0
Jun 2012 6.524 20.8% 8.366 5.300 worldwide.
Sep 2012 6.795 25.8% 8.366 5.300 6.0
Dec 2012 6.767 25.3% 8.366 5.300 The price is based upon a bench-
Mar 2013 6.308 16.8% 7.000 5.750 3.0 mark ore of 48-50% manganese
Jun 2013 6.308 16.8% 7.000 5.750 content.
Sep 2013 6.236 15.5% 7.000 5.750 0.0
Dec 2013 6.236 15.5% 7.000 5.750 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

JULY 2011 ADDITIONAL METALS
MOLYBDENUM Molybdenum is principally used as
US$ Molybdenum, Spot Price an alloying agent in steel because
% US$/lb of its anti-corrosive properties. As
Forecast Range 40 a by-product of copper production
Consensus change
US$/lb (Mean) from spot High Low 35
costs are low and prices can be
influenced by the price and de-
Spot price 14.65 30 mand for nickel and stainless steel,
Sep 2011 17.34 18.3% 20.00 15.00
25 as well as molybdenum roasting
Dec 2011 17.82 21.6% 20.00 15.00
capacity.
Mar 2012 18.03 23.1% 22.00 15.00 20
Jun 2012 18.68 27.5% 24.00 15.00
30.1% 24.00 15.00
15 Futures Market: LME (since Feb-
Sep 2012 19.06
30.0% 22.00 15.00 ruary 2010) Pricing: US$/tonne
Dec 2012 19.05 10
27.6% 22.70 14.00 Contract Size: 6 tonnes Mo (+/-5%
Mar 2013 18.70 5
Jun 2013 18.50 26.3% 22.70 14.00 (Mo content 57-63%) Delivery Op-
Sep 2013 18.55 26.6% 23.60 14.00 0 tions: 10 tonnes (RMC), deliverable
Dec 2013 18.22 24.4% 23.60 14.00
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan in 200 or 250kg drums.
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
RUTILE Mineral sand prices are principally

US$ Rutile, Spot Price determined by derived demand.
% US$/metric tonne
Forecast Range Rutile is used to make titanium di-
US$/metric Consensus change 800
oxide (it is approximately 95% TiO2
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low in its mineral form), which can be
Spot price 725.0 700 used to make titanium or as a white
Sep 2011 1254.3 73.0% 1348.0 745.0 pigment in papers, plastics and
Dec 2011 1276.7 76.1% 1400.0 894.0 600 paints.
Mar 2012 1390.4 91.8% 1600.0 894.0
Jun 2012 1399.3 93.0% 1600.0 983.4 Prices are set under long-term con-
500
Sep 2012 1424.3 96.5% 1700.0 983.4 tracts between producers (many of
Dec 2012 1424.3 96.5% 1700.0 983.4 which will produce from mine to
Mar 2013 1455.7 100.8% 1700.0 983.4 400
end use) and consumers.
Jun 2013 1457.0 101.0% 1700.0 995.6
Sep 2013 1457.0 101.0% 1700.0 995.6 300
88.0% 1600.0 750.0 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Dec 2013 1363.2
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
ILMENITE Ilmenite is mined alongside rutile

US$ Ilmenite, Spot Price and is also used to make titanium
%
Forecast Range US$/metric tonne dioxide (it is approximately 54%
US$/metric Consensus change 160
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low
TiO2 in its mineral form). Prices are
150
set under long-term contracts. The
Spot price 130.00 140
price of ilmenite is substantially
Sep 2011 146.5 12.7% 250.0 105.0 130 lower than that of rutile and is there-
Dec 2011 150.5 15.8% 250.0 105.0 120 fore often used to produce synthetic
Mar 2012 169.7 30.5% 300.0 105.0
110 rutile. 90% of titanium metal is
Jun 2012 175.2 34.8% 300.0 105.0
100 sourced from ilmenite.
Sep 2012 178.2 37.1% 325.0 110.0
90
Dec 2012 178.2 37.1% 325.0 110.0
Australia is the worlds largest pro-
Mar 2013 179.8 38.3% 300.0 110.0 80
ducer (55%) of ilmenite and rutile
Jun 2013 178.8 37.5% 300.0 110.0 70
33.7% 250.0 110.0
followed by South Africa (24%) and
Sep 2013 173.8 60
31.4% 250.0 100.0 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Ukraine (16%).
Dec 2013 170.8
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
ZIRCON Zircon prices are set under long-

US$ Zircon, Spot Price term contracts between producers
% US $/metric tonne
Forecast Range 2000
and consumers. Zircon prices have
US$/metric Consensus change
tonne
risen steadily in recent years fol-
(Mean) from spot High Low 1800
lowing the move from spot-trading
1600
Spot price 1748.0 to contract-trading.
Sep 2011 2110.2 20.7% 2240.0 1452.0 1400
Dec 2011 2298.5 31.5% 2650.0 1875.0 1200 Iluka Resources are the worlds
Mar 2012 2495.1 42.7% 3200.0 1875.0 1000 largest zircon miner and as a re-
Jun 2012 2537.6 45.2% 3300.0 2000.0 800 sult the most influential in setting a
Sep 2012 2557.6 46.3% 3400.0 2000.0 benchmark prices. Its Eucla basin
600
Dec 2012 2570.1 47.0% 3500.0 2024.8 in Australia is mined principally for
48.5% 3500.0 2024.8 400
Mar 2013 2595.1 zircon unlike the majority of other
Jun 2013 2587.6 48.0% 3400.0 2050.0 200
mines, for which zircon is a
Sep 2013 2507.6 43.5% 3300.0 1800.0 0
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan coproduct of rutile and ilmenite.
Dec 2013 2350.1 34.4% 3200.0 1500.0
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

GOLD JULY 2011
Survey Date Spot Price Gold Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Jul. 25): US$1616.5
from spot
Deutsche Bank 1630.0 1750.0 1750.0 1850.0 14.4% 2000.0 2000.0 1700.0 1700.0 1700.0 1700.0
Wilson HTM 1690.0 1690.0 1800.0 1800.0 11.4% 2000.0 2000.0 1700.0 1700.0 1700.0 1700.0
ANZ 1570.2 1660.0 1700.0 1675.0 3.6% 1590.0 1515.0 1455.0 1415.0 1390.0 1370.0
Morgan Stanley 1565.0 1585.0 1605.0 1615.0 -0.1% 1625.0 1650.0 1550.0 1550.0 1550.0 1550.0
BREE 1503.0 1503.0 1550.0 1550.0 -4.1% 1550.0 1550.0 na na na na
Credit Suisse 1560.0 1545.0 1550.0 1550.0 -4.1% 1550.0 1550.0 1475.0 1475.0 1475.0 1475.0
Investec 1500.0 1500.0 1500.0 1500.0 -7.2% 1450.0 1450.0 1350.0 1350.0 1300.0 1300.0
UBS 1530.0 1575.0 1470.0 1400.0 -13.4% 1350.0 1300.0 1200.0 1200.0 1200.0 1200.0
Oxford Economics 1611.7 1579.7 1450.0 1381.9 -14.5% 1300.1 1263.5 1228.8 1194.3 1162.5 1134.7
Citigroup 1450.0 1450.0 1350.0 1350.0 -16.5% 1300.0 1300.0 1250.0 1250.0 1200.0 1200.0
Macquarie Bank 1575.0 1475.0 1375.0 1350.0 -16.5% 1350.0 1325.0 1275.0 1225.0 1200.0 1175.0
RBS 1325.0 1325.0 1300.0 1275.0 -21.1% 1300.0 1325.0 1350.0 1350.0 1400.0 1400.0
Econ Intelligence Unit 1480.0 1390.0 1300.0 1270.0 -21.4% 1220.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1000.0 na
Consensus (Mean) 1542.9 1534.9 1522.2 1517.0 -6.2% 1497.9 1480.4 1405.3 1385.0 1364.8 1378.2
High 1690.0 1750.0 1800.0 1850.0 2000.0 2000.0 1700.0 1700.0 1700.0 1700.0
Low 1325.0 1325.0 1249.1 1251.9 1220.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1000.0 1134.7
US$ Gold, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
US$/troy ounce US$
1700
1650
1550
1625
1400 1600
1250 1575
COMEX Futures
1100 1550
950 1525
800 1500
Consensus
650 1475
1450
500
1425
350
1400
200 US$/troy oz
1375
Gold Price Reaching Peak

Gold Futures Oct. 2011 Contract (COMEX)
US$
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close Index Uncertain growth in the US and Western
1650 72 Europe has led investors to seek out gold
US$ Index as a safe haven. This, combined with the
1600
(rhs, inverted scale) 74 weak US dollar pushed the price to a nomi-
1550 nal high of $1628 in July. However, gold is
1500 76 overvalued in comparison to other precious
1450 metals such as platinum and there is a risk
78
Gold Futures Oct. 2011 of correction in the market.
1400
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) 80 Our consensus suggests gold has peaked
1350 and the price will fall over the next two years.
1300 82 However, a number of our forecasters still
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 expect significant near-term gains.
Gold Supply and Demand (2009) Gold prices are fixed twice daily by the LBMA provid-
Production tonnes % of world Consumption tonnes % of world ing a benchmark price for trades on various exchanges
and over-the-counter trades.
1 China 320 13.0% 1. India 579 23.1%
2 USA 223 9.1% 2. China 458 18.3% US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
3 Australia 222 9.0% 3. USA 265 10.6% Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3 cal-
4 Russia 205 8.3% 4. Germany 134 5.3% endar months; any February, April, August and October
5 South Africa 198 8.0% 5. Turkey 107 4.3% within 23 months; and any June and December within
World 2460 World 2503 72 months. Contracts Traded: 44,730,345 (2010).

JULY 2011 SILVER
Survey Date Spot Price Silver Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Jul. 25): US$40.78
from spot
Deutsche Bank 37.00 41.00 42.00 45.00 10.3% 50.00 50.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00
ANZ 37.59 41.79 44.17 44.08 8.1% 41.58 39.10 37.08 35.60 34.75 34.25
Wilson HTM 39.00 39.00 43.39 43.39 6.4% 50.00 50.00 37.78 37.78 37.78 37.78
Morgan Stanley 36.50 38.00 36.48 36.70 -10.0% 36.93 37.50 32.98 32.98 32.98 32.98
BREE 34.25 34.25 34.25 34.25 -16.0% na na na na na na
Credit Suisse 37.00 34.50 30.00 30.00 -26.4% 30.00 30.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00
Investec 35.00 35.00 30.00 30.00 -26.4% 29.00 29.00 27.00 27.00 26.00 26.00
UBS 34.70 39.00 30.00 30.00 -26.4% 30.00 30.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00
Citigroup 33.00 30.25 27.00 27.00 -33.8% 25.00 25.00 23.25 23.25 21.50 21.50
Macquarie Bank 33.00 29.00 26.00 23.00 -43.6% 22.00 22.00 21.00 20.00 19.50 19.00
RBS 26.00 25.00 24.00 23.00 -43.6% 24.00 25.00 26.00 26.00 30.00 30.00
Consensus (Mean) 35.80 35.47 33.96 33.97 -16.7% 32.59 31.73 29.38 28.84 28.65 28.92
High 42.98 45.00 46.00 47.00 50.00 50.00 39.00 38.00 38.00 38.00
Low 26.00 25.00 23.03 21.89 21.89 21.89 21.00 20.00 19.50 19.00
Silver, Spot Price (Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

US$ London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Prices and Forecasts as at Survey Date
Ratio US$
US$/troy ounce 45.00
50.0 100
45.0 43.00
Gold/Silver Spot 90
40.0 41.00 COMEX Futures
35.0
Price Ratio (rhs) 80
39.00
30.0 70 37.00
25.0
20.0 60 35.00
Consensus
15.0 50 33.00
10.0 31.00
40 US$/troy oz
5.0
Silver Spot Price (lhs) 29.00
0.0 30
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 27.00
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Volatile Recent Performance

Silver Futures September 2011 Contract (COMEX)
US$ Silver has endured a volatile second quarter,
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close
53.0
with prices falling by 30% in one week in May
before recovering to $40/troy oz in July. The
49.0
volatility is due to a high proportion of the
45.0
market made up of speculative investors
41.0 rather than industrial buyers. Recent gains
37.0 have been tentative, with investors wary of
33.0 Mays price plummet being repeated.
29.0 Our panels forecasts are mixed, although the
25.0 overall consensus points to a sustained drop
21.0 in price over the next year. Most of our panel-
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 lists believe silver to be overvalued and see it
falling below $30/troy oz in the long term.
World Production and Uses of Silver (2010) Silver, like gold, has a price set by members of the
LBMA which is used as a benchmark for over-the-
Producer Millions of Ounces Use % of total demand
counter trades.
1. Mexico 128.6 1. Industrial Applications 46.1 US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
2. Peru 116.1 2. Jewellery 15.8 Contract Size: 5,000 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3
3. China 99.2 3. Coins and Metals 9.6 calendar months; any January, March, May and Sep-
4. Australia 59.9 4. Photography 6.9 tember within 23 months; and any July and December
5. Chile 41.0 5. Silverware 4.8 within 60 months. ContractsTraded: 12,826,666 (2010).
PLATINUM JULY 2011
Survey Date Spot Price Platinum Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Jul. 25): US$1787
from spot
Deutsche Bank 1750 1950 2000 2050 14.7% 2200 2250 1850 1850 1850 1850
Wilson HTM 1850 1850 2025 2025 13.3% 2225 2225 1850 1850 1850 1850
RBS 1850 1900 1925 1975 10.5% 2000 2100 2200 2200 2300 2300
BNP Paribas 1810 1870 1925 1970 10.2% 1985 1985 na na na na
Credit Suisse 1835 1885 1950 1950 9.1% 1950 1950 2200 2200 2200 2200
UBS 1815 1862 1950 1950 9.1% 1950 1950 1950 1950 1940 1960
ANZ 1781 1876 1943 1936 8.3% 1849 1772 1712 1675 1655 1641
Morgan Stanley 1750 1800 1911 1911 7.0% 1911 1911 1952 1952 1952 1952
Citigroup 1850 1850 1900 1900 6.3% 1900 1900 1775 1775 1775 1775
Macquarie Bank 1850 1900 2000 1850 3.5% 1800 1750 1750 1750 1750 1750
Barclays Capital 1810 1850 1835 1835 2.7% 1835 1835 na na na na
Investec 1745 1745 1788 1788 0.1% 1800 1800 1812 1812 1762 1762
Consensus (Mean) 1819 1833 1868 1871 4.7% 1899 1893 1858 1849 1844 1854
High 2113 1950 2025 2050 2225 2250 2200 2200 2300 2300
Low 1725 1700 1614 1599 1650 1600 1550 1550 1550 1550
Platinum, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

US$
London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) US$ Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
US$/troy ounce Ratio
2500 5.0 1910
Platinum Spot Price (lhs)
2250 4.5
1890
2000 4.0
1870
1750 3.5
Consensus
1500 3.0 1850
1250 Platinum/Gold Spot 2.5
Price Ratio (rhs) 1830
1000 2.0
1810 NYMEX Futures
750 1.5
500 1.0 1790
250 0.5
1770
0 0.0 US$/troy oz
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Platinum Futures October 2011 Contract (NYMEX) Gains on Industrial and Investor Demand
US$ US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close Demand for platinum is robust both as an in-
vestment and for industrial usage. Strong
1900 growth in the global auto industry fuelled by
emerging economies has increased demand
for the metal due to its use in catalytic con-
1800
verters. The metal has underperformed gold
and silver this year and there is potential for
1700 stronger growth as investors see it as a vi-
able alternative investment which, when com-
bined with a tightening global supply, will lead
1600 to price rises.
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Our panel forecasts steady growth in the price
of platinum in the medium term.
Platinum Production and Consumption (2010) Platinum prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM to
provide a benchmark price in a practice similar to
Production % of world total Consumption % of world total that used for gold and silver.
1. South Africa 76.5 1. Europe 26.8 US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/troy
2. Russia 13.6 2. China 25.2 ounce Lot Size: 50 troy ounces Deliverability: Over
3. Zimbabwe 4.6 3. North America 19.1 15 months including the next 3 calendar months; then
4. North America 3.5 4. Japan 14.6 a January, April, June and October cycle. Contracts
5. Others 1.8 5. Others 14.3 Traded: 1,486,507 (2010).
JULY 2011 PALLADIUM
Survey Date Spot Price Palladium Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Jul. 25): US$806.0
from spot
Deutsche Bank 850.0 950.0 1000.0 1100.0 36.5% 1250.0 1250.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0
Wilson HTM 900.0 900.0 1050.0 1050.0 30.3% 1250.0 1250.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0
Credit Suisse 850.0 920.0 1000.0 1000.0 24.1% 1000.0 1000.0 1200.0 1200.0 1200.0 1200.0
Morgan Stanley 775.0 825.0 955.6 955.6 18.6% 955.6 955.6 976.0 976.0 976.0 976.0
Macquarie Bank 850.0 1000.0 1100.0 950.0 17.9% 850.0 800.0 750.0 725.0 750.0 750.0
Citigroup 795.0 850.0 925.0 925.0 14.8% 975.0 975.0 850.0 850.0 850.0 850.0
RBS 850.0 900.0 900.0 925.0 14.8% 975.0 1000.0 1100.0 1100.0 1150.0 1150.0
ANZ 788.0 833.7 869.5 872.2 8.2% 836.5 824.2 824.9 822.9 823.3 820.4
Barclays Capital 805.0 845.0 860.0 860.0 6.7% 860.0 860.0 na na na na
UBS 790.0 855.0 825.0 825.0 2.4% 825.0 825.0 850.0 850.0 850.0 850.0
Investec 755.0 755.0 824.0 824.0 2.2% 824.0 824.0 862.0 862.0 862.0 862.0
IHS Global Insight 750.0 725.0 700.0 680.0 -15.6% 660.0 675.0 654.8 647.2 630.0 620.0
Consensus (Mean) 806.3 848.4 894.6 898.5 11.5% 905.4 909.3 859.1 843.4 847.9 871.6
High 900.0 1000.0 1100.0 1100.0 1250.0 1250.0 1200.0 1200.0 1200.0 1200.0
Low 735.0 700.0 650.0 650.0 600.0 600.0 550.0 550.0 550.0 620.0
Palladium, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

US$ London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM)
US$
Prices and Forecasts as of Survey Date
1200
925
1000 Consensus
US$/troy ounce 900
800
875
600 850
400 825
800
200
NYMEX Futures
775
0 US$/troy oz
Palladium Futures September 2011 Contract (NYMEX) Steady Gains Expected

US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close Industrial demand for palladium is currently
US$
strong. Like platinum, palladium is benefiting
900
from a return to growth in the auto industry
850 as supply concerns, caused by the Japanese
earthquake crisis, begin to ease. Meanwhile,
800 investor demand for palladium has not been
as strong as with other precious metals,
750
though this may change as investors seek a
700 cheap alternative safe haven asset to gold
and platinum.
650 Our panel is optimistic about the price of pal-
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 ladium, predicting a rise of 9.4% over the next
year.
Palladium Production and Consumption (2010) Palladium prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM to
provide a benchmark price in a practice used for other
Production % of world total Consumption % of world total precious metals. Most palladium is used in catalytic
1. Russia 51.0 1. North America 31.7 converters. US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing:
2. South Africa 35.3 2. China 18.9 US$/troy ounce Lot Size: 100 troy ounces
3. North America 8.1 3. Europe 18.0 Deliverability: Over 15 months including the next 3
4. Zimbabwe 3.0 4. Japan 15.3 calendar months; then a March, June, September and
5. Others 2.6 5.Others 16.1 December cycle. Contracts Traded: 901,584 (2010).
FACTORS AFFECTING COMMODITY PRICES JULY 2011
In this month's special survey, we asked our panellists to rank the current July 2011 importance of a range of different
factors (namely demand/business cycle, supply/production constraints, government trade policies, FX linkages/US
dollar value and investment funds) in determining commodity price movements. Scores were assigned to each of the
factors shown in the table below on a scale of 0 (no influence) to 10 (very strong influence). The consensus results are the
averages of individual panellists' scores for each factor. Given that different commodities are influenced by a wide range of
factors, we limited the variables considered to a common list of five factors which we asked our panellists to assess for
each.
Consensus Ranking of Commodity Price Determinants (0 to 10 highest)
Dem and/ S u p p ly / G o v e rn m e n t F X L in k a g e s /
B u sin es s P r o d u c ti o n T rad e U S d o lla r I n v e s tm e n t
P ag e C yc le C o n s tr a i n ts P o lic ies V alu e Funds
C ru d e O il 6 6 .0 6 .3 1 .7 3.0 2 .7
N a tu r a l G a s 7 6 .0 5 .5 2 .0 2.0 2 .5
Coal 10 7 .7 7 .7 2 .0 3.3 1 .3
U ran iu m 11 7 .0 2 .0 0 .0 0.0 0 .0
A lu m in iu m 12 8 .0 5 .1 2 .3 5.6 3 .9
A lu m in a 13 7 .0 5 .5 2 .0 2.5 1 .5
Copper 14 8 .0 8 .0 1 .7 4.5 6 .0
N ic ke l 15 7 .7 5 .7 1 .2 6.0 4 .0
L ead 16 7 .4 6 .8 2 .8 4.0 3 .2
Z in c 17 6 .8 5 .8 1 .0 4.0 3 .4
T in 20 6 .8 8 .5 4 .8 3.8 3 .8
S te e l 18 7 .5 5 .7 3 .7 3.3 1 .0
Iro n O re 19 7 .3 7 .5 4 .3 4.0 1 .3
G o ld 22 5 .0 3 .3 0 .7 5.7 6 .7
S ilv er 23 4 .0 2 .0 1 .0 5.5 9 .0
P l a ti n u m 24 6 .7 7 .0 1 .7 3.7 4 .7
P a llad iu m 25 8 .0 7 .0 2 .3 3.7 4 .3
Commodity prices, which were remarkably resilient to the scale) and in recent times, that inverse relationship has been
2009 global slowdown, are notoriously volatile and clearly reinforced by the US dollar facing significant downward pres-
influenced by a wide range of different factors. The impor- sure on the back of worries over the health of the US economy
tance of each factor varies from commodity to commodity and its public debt outlook. It is not uncommon for short-
and, for any given one of them, over time. This special sur- term fluctuations from trend to occur during periods of height-
vey on Factors Affecting Commodity Prices asks our pan- ened uncertainty, though, as fiscal pressures continue to
ellists to compare and rate the differing degrees of sensitiv- weigh on other currencies relative to the dollar, too. The next
ity with which the price of different commodities respond to graph shows the price of copper (US$/MT) and volume of
a range of influences. As these factors sometimes work in imported copper products in China. Chinese demand for
opposite directions, it should also help to determine which the metal remains high, but the chart does show some fal-
of them are likely to dominate. The graphs on the next page tering over the course of 2010 and this year. The Chinese
illustrate the direct relationships between commodity prices authorities, worried about the economy overheating, recently
and some explanatory factors. A graph of the price of gold tightened monetary policy in a bid to rein in price pressures.
(US$/oz.) and the US dollar index (measured against a This (coupled with signs of an economic slowdown) has hit
broad range of currencies) is shown first, as the former is copper imports, although latest data for June suggest a
traditionally considered a good long-term hedge against weak- modest fillip in copper products entering the country. Copper
ness in the latter. Both variables are correlated negatively prices, meanwhile, have climbed steadily on the back of
with each other (the US$ index is plotted on an inverted hopes for Chinese demand to remain strong and on signs

JULY 2011 FACTORS AFFECTING COMMODITY PRICES
of buoyant activity in the emerging markets. By contrast,

the Euro zone and US are still going through a period of The Price of Gold and the US Dollar
economic, fiscal and financial insecurity as their respective (end month)
(US$/oz.) Index
debt crises hit market sentiment. Indices of the Standard & 1600 70
Poors 500 and the Economist Base Metals Index (bottom 1500 US Dollar Index
right chart) illustrate the magnified effect of financial volatil- 1400
(inverted - right scale)
80
ity on metals prices. Lastly, the movement in the prices of 1300
crude oil (WTI) and US natural gas have shown a 1200
90
decoupling over the past two years crude and natural gas 1100
1000
are viewed as substitutes of each other. WTI has been lifted
900 100
partly by worries over supply constraints, a factor rated as
800
influential on its price by our panels (averaging 6.3 out of 700
10). Second to supply is world demand which, despite the Gold 110
600
economic moderation in the US and softness evidenced in (left scale)
500
the Chinese economy, is expected to remain robust. The 120
400
ranking is down from our panellists rating of 8.2 last year, 300
though, underscoring the loss in momentum amongst the 200 130
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
two most important energy consuming countries. By con-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
trast, government trade policies and investment funds are
likely to have only a small impact on the price of WTI. Inter-
estingly, our respondents awarded an 8.0 rating to other
Chinese Copper Imports* and the Price of Copper
factors (not shown). This could represent many things but
(end month)
geopolitical risks, including civil war in Libya, possibly rank
Tonnes US$/MT
highly, as do refining constraints. China Copper
110000 Imports* 10000
Demand/business cycle is an influential factor affecting (left scale) 9000
100000
commodity prices, according to most of those surveyed, 8000
90000
averaging about 6.8 out of 10 in total. Indeed, for aluminium,
7000
copper, steel and palladium, respondents ranked this par- 80000
ticular determinant 8 out of 10. Government trade policies, 6000
70000
in comparison, averaged a mere 1.8 for all commodities 5000
60000
shown, perhaps reflecting the increasingly globalized na- 4000
ture of the world economy today. Interestingly, the impact of 50000
3000
investment funds which played an important role last year 40000 Copper Prices 2000
in the determination of metals prices has lessened this (right scale)
30000 1000
time around, with the exception of silver where it is rated 9
out of 10 in terms of importance and gold where it is rated 20000 0
6.7. Gold is usually a dominant default commodity for specu- Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
lators when equities and the US dollar are suffering.
* Source: China General Administration of Customs
Prices of Crude Oil and US Natural Gas S&P 500 Index and the
US$/ US$/ % change,
Barrel (end month) MMBtu Economist Based Metals Index
y-o-y
(Annual % change)
160.00 16 100
140.00 Crude Oil - WTI 14 80

US Natural Gas Economist Base
(left scale)
120.00 (right scale) 12 60 Metals Index
100.00 10 40
80.00 8 20
60.00 6 0
40.00 4 -20
S&P 500 Index
20.00 2 -40
0.00 0 -60
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Consensus Forecasts Percentage Changes From Spot Price JULY 2011
During the Next Ten Quarters
% Change
10.0
Aluminium
Crude Oil (WTI)
5.0
Steel - HRC, US
0.0
-5.0
Copper
-10.0
Gold
-15.0
-20.0
Spot Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
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ENERGY & METALS CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Contents Factors Affecting Commodity Prices:

Factors Affecting Commodity Prices: 400

Aluminium (US$/tonne) 12 +13.7% 2573 2598 2585 2610 +1.4%

Gold (US$/oz.) 22 +36.3% 1616 1535 1522 1517 -6.2%

NOTES, ABBREVIATIONS, WEIGHTS AND MEASURES JULY 2011

1kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds 1 barrel = 42 US gallons

2 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

REAL GDP GROWTH Consensus INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH Consensus

2011 REAL GDP GROWTH 2011 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH

3.0 United States (lhs)

2.0 9.3 2.0

Recent Historical Data and Consensus Forecast Projections

Changes in the Consensus: Changes in the Consensus:

4 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011 5

Survey Date Spot Price Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel

Recent Drop in Prices Likely Temporary

6 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

Survey Date Spot Price RBOB1Gasoline (US) Forecasts, US$/gallon

Societe Generale 2.900 2.770 2.890 3.010 -4.8% na na na na na na

regular non-oxygenated 3.2

Daily High/Low/Close 2.8

US Crack Spread US Debt Concerns Affect Prices

Societe Generale 947.4 948.6 956.1 948.6 -4.1% na na na na na na

850 Heating Oil, Daily Close,

OIL & DISTILLATE FUTURES SPECIFICATIONS JULY 2011

8 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

Survey Date Spot Price UK Natural Gas Forecasts, UK/therm

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub); UK Natural Gas US Natural Gas

UK Natu r al Gas (r h s ) 1.6 5.25

Natural Gas Futures UK/therm

10 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

Survey Date Spot Price Uranium U3O8 Forecasts, US$/lb

Uranium U3O8, Spot Price Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 50

Price Drop Expected to Reverse

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011 11

3000 LME Futures

1000 US$/metric tonne

Positive Industrial Production Outlook

12 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

Survey Date Spot Price Alumina Forecasts, US$/metric tonne

Alumina, Metallurgical Grade, Spot Price Alumina Consensus Forecasts

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011 13

Steady Gains over the Next Year

Survey Date Spot Price Nickel Forecasts, US$/metric tonne

Survey Date Spot Price Lead Forecasts, US$/metric tonne

Lead 3-Month Forward Prices and Warehouse Stocks,LME Prices Steady

Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

4500 US$/metric tonne Consensus

Consensus Price for

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011 19

ANZ Bank of America Merrill Lynch Barclays Capital

TIN Tin has its physical spot market

COBALT Colbalt is principally used as a

MANGANESE Manganese is not exchange-

20 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011

RUTILE Mineral sand prices are principally

ILMENITE Ilmenite is mined alongside rutile

ZIRCON Zircon prices are set under long-

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2011 21

Survey Date Spot Price Gold Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce