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Stat515 Midterm II Fall 2010

NAME: _______________________________ ID: _______________________

Show all work. Explain your answers. Partial credit will be given. There are 4 questions, and a
total of 100 points. Points are shown for each question.

1. A random point (X, Y) is distributed uniformly on the square with vertices (1, 1), (1, -1), (-
1, 1), and (-1, -1).
a. (10 pts) Find the joint pdf of (X, Y).
b. (10 pts) Find the probability that X-Y > 1.
c. (10 pts) If instead of being uniformly distributed on the square, (X,Y) is
distributed on the square with the pdf:
f ( x, y ) = 83 ( x 2 + y 2 )
Find the probability that X-Y > 1.
2. The time to failure of a component in an electronic device has an exponential
distribution with a median of four hours.
a. (10 pts) Let X be the time to failure for this component. Then
X ~ exponential (),
for some . Find the cumulative distribution function F ( x) of X in terms of
b. (10 pts) Find , using the fact that the median of X is four hours, that is,
F ( x) = P( X 4) = 0.5 .
c. (10 pts) Find E(50 2X X2).
3. A large number of insects are expected to be attracted to a certain variety of rose plant.
A commercial insecticide is advertised as being 99% effective. Suppose 2,000 insects
infest a rose garden where the insecticide has been applied, and let X = number of
surviving insects.
a. (5 pts) What probability distribution might provide a reasonable model for this
b. (10 pts) Write down, but do not evaluate, an expression for the probability that
fewer than 100 insects survive, using the model in part (a).
c. (5 pts) Find the mean m and variance s 2 of X.
d. (10 pts) Suppose that we can use the normal distribution with mean m and
variance s 2 to approximate the distribution of X in (a). Find the probability that
fewer than 100 insects survive, approximated using the normal distribution.
4. (10 pts) A baseball team has scheduled its opening game for April 1. If it rains on April 1,
the game is postponed and will be played on the next day that it does not rain. The team
purchases insurance against rain. The policy will pay 1000 for each day, up to 2 days, that
the opening game is postponed. The insurance company determines that the number of
consecutive days of rain beginning on April 1 is a Poisson random variable with mean
0.6. Find the probability mass function of the amount the insurance company will have
to pay.