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JKCEMENT
Decentperformance
IndiaEquityResearch|Cement
JKCement(JKCE)reportedadecentperformanceinQ1FY18withEBITDA EDELWEISS4DRATINGS
(atINR1.98bnversusINR2.1bnestimate)rising13%YoYandPATjumping
AbsoluteRating BUY
animpressive30%.Greycementvolumesgrew~7%YoYandrealisations
RatingRelativetoSector Outperform
surged9%QoQ,leadingtoEBITDA/tofINR686(INR614inQ1FY17).Given RiskRatingRelativetoSector Medium
thelowbaseofH2FY17andfactoringcurrentstablepricetrend,wesee SectorRelativetoMarket Overweight
limited risk to our 7% volume growth and INR587 EBITDA/t FY18
estimatesforthesegment.GSTimplementationleddestockingimpacted
whitecementwithvolumestayingflatYoY(puttysalesgrowthslowedto MARKETDATA(R:JKCE.BO,B:JKCEIN)
6%versus17%inFY17).Giventhepricingpressure,thesegmentsEBITDA CMP :INR1,032
dipped9% YoY.Inline with managementsguidance,westay optimistic TargetPrice :INR1,175
52weekrange(INR) :1,196/628
on recovery in ensuing quarters. Retain BUY with TP of INR1,175 (10x
Shareinissue(mn) :69.9
FY19EEBITDA).
Mcap(INRbn/USDmn) :72/1,125
Avg.DailyVol.BSE/NSE(000) :48.2
Q1FY18:Performancehighlights
Greycementvolumesrose~7%YoYto1.74mt(broadlyinline)onalowbaseof SHAREHOLDINGPATTERN(%)
1%inQ1FY17.Includingclinkersalesof133kt(ledby~100ktexports,whichmay Current Q4FY17 Q3FY17
notcontinue)totalvolumessurged~15%YoY.Realisationsjumped9%QoQ(5% Promoters* 64.2 64.2 67.0
estimate)leadingtoEBITDA/tofINR686versusINR614inQ1FY17. MF's,FI's&BKs 13.1 16.7 15.3
Given the current stable cement prices and low base of H2FY17, we perceive FII's 11.4 11.3 10.1
limitedrisktoour7%volumegrowthandINR587EBITDA/testimatesforFY18. Others 11.3 7.9 7.6
*Promoterspledgedshares : NIL
WhitesegmentdisappointedwithflatvolumesYoY(7%growthestimate)and9% (%ofshareinissue)
dipinEBITDAwithmargincontracting~260bpsYoY.Managementattributedthis
to GST implementationled destocking and is hopeful of recovery in ensuing PRICEPERFORMANCE(%)
quarters.Wetooremainoptimistic. EW
Stock Nifty Construction
UAE operations remained subdued with volume growth of ~3% YoY. Sustained MaterialIndex
weakdemandandincreasedpricingcompetitionislikelytopersistinnearterm. 1month 7.2 0.1 4.0
3months (8.1) 4.8 7.3
Outlookandvaluations:Brightpotential;maintainBUY 12months 34.3 14.1 28.8
WecontinuetolikeJKCEasitislikelytobeoneofthebeneficiariesofanticipatedprice
and demand uptick in North. Steady volumes and EBITDA growth in white cement
cushion downside risks, if any, from price volatility in grey cement. With RoE of over
20%inFY19E,wecontinuetovalueJKCEat10xFY19EEBITDAandmaintainBUY/SO
withTPofINR1,175.
Financials
(INRmn)
YeartoMarch Q1FY18 Q1FY17 %Chg Q4FY17 %Chg FY17 FY18E FY19E
TotaloperatingIncome 10,415 8,951 16.4 10,648 (2.2) 40,623 46,698 53,124
NavinR.Sahadeo
EBITDA 1,977 1,749 13.1 2,273
(13.0) 7,670 8,691 10,517 +912240886242
navinr.sahadeo@edelweissfin.com
AdjustedProfit 793 704 12.8
985 (19.4) 2,415 3,338 4,835
DilutedEPS(INR) 11.3 10.1 12.8 14.1 (19.4) 32.4 47.7 69.1 SharifHadimani
EdelweissResearchisalsoavailableonwww.edelresearch.com,
BloombergEDEL<GO>,ThomsonFirstCall,ReutersandFactset. EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Cement
Q1FY18conferencecallhighlights
Operationalhighlights
Greycementproductiongrew9%YoYto1.75mt,whilesalesvolumegrew6.5%YoYto
1.74mt.JKCEalsosold133ktclinker(including~100ktexportstoNepal,whichmaynot
continueinensuingquarters),leadingtototalsalesvolumegrowthof~15%YoY.
In Q1FY18, regional sales mix remained broadly same at ~75% sales from Northern
plants,whilebalancewasfromitsKarnatakaplant.
Northplantsoperatedat~75%utilisationandat~60%inSouthinQ1FY18.
Managementestimates~78%volumegrowthinQ2FY18.
Acrosskeymarkets,JKCEhaswitnessedmarginalpricecorrectionduetomonsoon(of
~INR810/bagcomparedtopreviousquartersexitprices).
Whitecement+wallputtyvolumesremainedflatat256KT,largelyduetoGSTrelated
destocking.This,coupledwithweakrealisationsandrisingcosts,ledtothesegments
EBITDA dipping 9% YoY. However, going forward, management expects recovery in
volumegrowthwithEBITDAmarginrevertingto~28%.
AveragepetcokecostinQ1wasINR7,600/t,anincreaseof~INR2,000versusQ1FY17.
InQ2FY18,managementexpectsittoincreasefurtherby~INR200/tduetoimpactof
highcostofimportedpetcoke.
ManagementstatedthatitisearlytoquantifysavingsduetoGSTimplementationand
itwillbeinabetterpositiontocommentonthesamebyFY18end.
Management expects raw mill silo construction work at South plant to start at the
beginningofFY19.
InterestcostduringQ1FY18washigherQoQ(INR680mnversusINR628mninQ4FY17)
largelyduetoexchangeratefluctuations(partoffinancecost).
DebtandCapex
ManagementguidedforacapexofINR2.02.5bnforFY18.Ofthis:
o INR250mnwillbeincurredonputtyexpansionatKatni.
o INR300400mntoacquireminingland.
o Balance (~INR1.61.75bn) as maintenance and other environment related
improvementsatexistingplants.
On standalone basis, as of June 30, 2017, JKCE had gross debt of INR24.2bn and net
debtofINR19.5bn.Additionally,UAEsubsidiaryhadtotaloutstandingdebtofUSD90mn.
InQ1FY18,netdebtreducedbyINR1.3bncomparedtoQ4FY17.
ManagementexpectstorepayaboutINR2.02.5bnannuallyoverthenextfewyears.
UAEoperations
In the June quarter, UAE operations recorded volume of 75KT, while revenue and
EBITDAstoodatAED31.9mnandAED5mn,respectively.
Operationscontinuedtosufferduetolowdemandandincreasedpricingcompetitionin
theregion.
2 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
JKCement
Capacityexpansionplans
Management reiterated that while it has taken enabling resolution to raise funds, no
clearplanshavebeenformedfortheexpansion.Itmentionedthatmoreclaritywillbe
givenoncapacityexpansionbyFY18end.
If at all managements decides to undertake greenfield expansion, it will be for a 2.5
3.0mtpa integrated capacity (grey cement) at an estimated cost of INR1518bn and a
expectedtimelineof2430monthsfromthedateofannouncement.
WallputtysKatniexpansion(0.2mtpa)isexpectedtobecommissionedbyJune2018.
Q4FY17conferencecallhighlights
Operationalhighlights
While grey cement volume fell 2% YoY to 1.86mt during Q4FY17, white+wall putty
volumesrose5%YoY.
ForFY17,greycementvolumestoodat6.8mt,up1%YoY,andwhite+wallputtyjumped
12%YoYto1.08mt.
HigherotherincomereportedinQ4FY17includedaonetimewritebackofprovisions
ofINR300mn.
Managementmentionedthatmultiplecostefficiencymeasures,inventoryoflowcost
pet coke and other fuel mixes helped JKCE maintain lower power and fuel costs per
tonneofcement.AsofQ4FY17,petcokeusageatkilnsstoodat85%.
Pet coke prices have been on the rise, trading close to USD9495/t. Accordingly, they
mayimpactQ1FY18powerandfuelcosts.
Cementindustryhasbeentakingnecessarystepstoreduceairpollutionwhileusingpet
coke. Hence, management is not too concerned about the NGT order banning use of
petcoke.
On standalone basis, JKCE had gross debt of INR25.1bn and cash of INR4.8bn as of
March2017versusgrossdebtofINR24.5bnandcashofINR4.3bnasofMarch2016.
Onconsolidatedbasis,grossdebtstoodatINR26.7bnasofMarch2017.
Management stated that fly ash availability has been an issue due to interruptions in
powerplantoperationsowingtolowerpowertariffs.
JKCEsleaddistanceinNorthoperationswas~600kmand~450kminSouth.Tradeand
nontradesalesmixstoodat67%and33%,respectively.
Operatingratesofthecompanysplantsstoodat~65%inNorthand~60%inSouth.
Outlookandguidance
Managementistargetingvolumegrowthof78%ingreycementand~1215%growth
inwhite+wallputtyinFY18.
JKCE is planning to repay total debt of INR2bn in FY18. It also stated that declining
interestrateswilllowerinterestcosts(~10%currently)by4050bpsinensuingyears.
Thecompanyincurredcapexof~INR2.5bninFY17.Ithasguidedfor~INR2.5bncapexin
FY18and~INR2bninFY19.
CapexinFY18willbelargelyincurredformaintenancepurposes,wallputtyexpansion
atKatniplant,landacquisition,pollutioncontrolmeasures,etc.
ExpansionworkatKatniplantisexpectedtobecompletedbyJune2018.
JKCEmayfinalisedecisiontoexpanditsgreycementcapacitiesbyendFY18.
3 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Cement
UAEoperations
In Q4FY17, total revenue from UAE operations rose 4% YoY. The subsidiary reported
EBITDAofAED6.4mnwithcementsalesvolumeof83Ktonnesandclinkersalesof30K
tonnes.
Management stated that competitive intensity amidst weak demand is exerting
pressureonpricingintheregion.
Overall,managementistargetingvolumegrowthof10%YoYinCY17.
Table1:TargetpriceofINR1,175
Particulars FY19E
AssumedEV/EBITDAmultiple(x) 10
TotalEBITDA(INRmn) 10,517
EV(INRmn) 107,039
Less:Netdebt(INRmn) 24,854
Mcap(INRmn) 82,185
Shareso/s(mn) 69.9
Valuepershare(INR) 1,175
PotentialUpside(%) 13.9
Source:Edelweissresearch
4 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
JKCement
Financialsnapshot (INRmn)
YeartoMarch Q1FY18 Q1FY17 %change Q4FY17 %change FY17 FY18E FY19E
TotaloperatingIncome 10,415 8,951 16.4 10,648 (2.2) 40,623 46,698 53,124
Rawmaterial 1,780 1,699 4.8 1,915 (7.1) 7,599 8,349 9,316
Powerandfuel 1,803 1,387 30.0 1,800 0.2 6,645 8,081 9,629
Staffcosts 775 658 17.7 728 6.5 3,155 3,313 3,545
SG&A 2,877 2,358 22.0 2,672 7.7 7,615 8,529 9,701
Otherexpenses 1,203 1,099 9.4 1,260 (4.5) 7,939 9,735 10,416
Totalexpenditure 8,438 7,202 17.2 8,375 0.7 32,953 38,006 42,607
EBITDA 1,977 1,749 13.1 2,273 (13.0) 7,670 8,691 10,517
Depreciation 450 425 5.9 452 (0.4) 2,169 2,068 2,182
EBIT 1,527 1,324 15.4 1,821 (16.2) 5,500 6,623 8,335
Otherincome 186 191 (2.7) 68 174.6 503 607 755
Interest 680 675 0.8 628 8.3 2,954 2,780 2,643
Profitbeforetax 1,033 840 22.9 1,261 (18.1) 2,856 4,450 6,447
Tax 240 121 98.8 258 (7.1) 649 1,113 1,612
Reportednetprofit 793 609 30.4 914 (13.2) 2,265 3,338 4,835
AdjustedProfit 793 704 12.8 985 (19.4) 2,415 3,338 4,835
Equitycapital(FVINR2) 699 699 699 699 699 699
No.ofshares(mn) 70 70 70 70 70 70
DilutedEPS(INR) 11.3 10.1 12.8 14.1 (19.4) 32.4 47.7 69.1
DilutedP/E(x) 29.9 21.6 14.9
EV/EBITDA(x) 13.5 11.5 9.1
ROAE(%) 14.4 17.6 21.7
As%ofnetrevenues
Rawmaterial 17.1 19.0 18.0 18.7 17.9 17.5
Employeecost 7.4 7.4 6.8 7.8 7.1 6.7
Power&fuel 17.3 15.5 16.9 16.4 17.3 18.1
Otherexpenses 11.5 12.3 11.8 19.5 20.8 19.6
SG&A 27.6 26.3 25.1 18.7 18.3 18.3
EBITDA 19.0 19.5 21.3 18.9 18.6 19.8
Adjustednetprofit 7.6 6.8 8.6 5.9 7.1 9.1
5 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Cement
CompanyDescription
JKCEisoneoftheleadingcementmanufacturersinIndiaandalsothesecondlargestwhite
cementmanufacturerinthecountry.ItisanaffiliateoftheJKGroup,whichwasfoundedby
Mr.LalaKamlapatSinghania.Currently,thecompanyhasgreycementinstalledcapacityof
10.5mtpa with manufacturing plants at Nimbahera, Mangrol and Gotan in Rajasthan and
Muddapur in Karnataka. JKCE is second largest producers of white cement in India with a
capacityof0.6mtpa.
InvestmentTheme
WecontinuetolikeJKCEasitislikelytobeoneofthebeneficiariesofanticipatedpriceand
demand uptick in North. Steady volumes and EBITDA growth in white cement cushion
downsiderisks,ifany,frompricevolatilityingreycement.WithRoEofover20%inFY19E,
wecontinuetovalueJKCEat10xFY19EV/ERBITDAandmaintainBUYwithTPofINR1,175,
implyinganexitEV/TofUSD133/t.
KeyRisks
Sharpdeclineincementprices/demandand/orsharpincreaseininputcost.
6 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
JKCement
FinancialStatements
KeyAssumptions Incomestatement (INRmn)
YeartoMarch FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E YeartoMarch FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Macro Incomefromoperations 37,860 40,623 46,698 53,124
GDP(YoY%) 7.2 6.5 7.1 7.7 Materialscosts 6,968 7,599 8,349 9,316
Inflation(Avg) 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.5 Powerandfuel 8,286 6,645 8,081 9,629
Reporate(exitrate) 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.8 Freight 7,797 7,615 8,529 9,701
USD/INR(Avg) 65.0 67.5 66.0 66.0 Employeecosts 2,687 3,155 3,313 3,545
Sector OtherExpenses 22,743 22,198 26,344 29,747
AllIndCemdemand(mt) 281 278 298 325 EBITDA 5,462 7,670 8,691 10,517
Demandgrowth(%) 5.2 (1.0) 7.0 9.0 Depreciation 1,974 2,169 2,068 2,182
IndCapacutil(%) 73.0 72.5 76.9 84.2 EBIT 3,488 5,500 6,623 8,335
Indavgprice(INR/50kg) 297.0 302.7 314.4 346.2 Add:Otherincome 498.08 502.94 607.14 754.76
Company Less: InterestExpense 3,049 2,954 2,780 2,643
Instcapacity(mtpa) 12 12 12 13 ProfitBeforeTax 936 2,856 4,450 6,447
CapacityUtilisation(%) 65 65 69 75 Less:ProvisionforTax 388 649 1,113 1,612
GreyCemSalesVol(mt) 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.9 Less:MinorityInterest (30) (58)
WhiteCemSalesVol(mt) 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2 ReportedProfit 579 2,265 3,338 4,835
GreyCemrealiztn(INR/t) 3,579 3,661 3,899 4,132 AdjustedProfit 579 2,415 3,338 4,835
WhtCemrealiztn(INR/t) 11,037 11,223 11,532 11,849 Shareso/s(mn) 70 70 70 70
RMcostpertonne 853 920 947 976 AdjustedBasicEPS 8.3 34.5 47.7 69.1
P&Fcostpertonne 1,014 804 917 1,009 Dilutedshareso/s(mn) 70 70 70 70
Freightcostpertonne 954 922 968 1,016 AdjustedDilutedEPS 8.3 34.5 47.7 69.1
Employeecostpertonne 329 382 376 371 AdjustedCashEPS 36.5 65.6 77.3 100.3
Otherexpensespertonne 1,528 1,727 1,888 1,911 Dividendpershare(DPS) 4.0 8.0 8.0 10.0
Totalexpensespertonne 4,678 4,754 5,096 5,282 DividendPayoutRatio(%) 58.2 28.9 19.6 16.9
GreyCmtEBITDA/t(INR) 319 538 587 696
WhiteCmtEBITDA/t(INR) 3,121 3,399 2,881 2,990 Commonsizemetrics
Effectivetaxrate(%) 41.4 22.7 25.0 25.0 YeartoMarch FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Debtordays 19 19 17 16 Operatingexpenses 85.6 81.1 81.4 80.2
Inventorydays 82 88 81 77 EBITDAmargins 14.4 18.9 18.6 19.8
Payabledays 48 45 46 57 NetProfitmargins 1.4 5.8 7.1 9.1
Growthratios(%)
YeartoMarch FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Revenues 11.8 7.3 15.0 13.8
EBITDA 26.8 40.4 13.3 21.0
AdjustedProfit (54.3) 317.4 38.2 44.9
EPS (54.3) 317.4 38.2 44.9
7 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Cement
Peercomparisonvaluation
Marketcap DilutedP/E(X) EV/EBITDA(X) ROAE(%)
Name (USDmn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
JKCement 1,125 21.6 14.9 11.5 9.1 17.6 21.7
ACC 5,301 43.1 30.8 18.2 14.1 9.0 12.3
AmbujaCementLtd 8,358 45.1 35.1 26.0 21.0 6.2 7.8
IndiaCements 889 21.1 13.6 8.6 6.8 5.2 7.6
ShreeCements 9,499 33.9 23.7 21.6 14.1 21.0 24.2
AVERAGE 33.0 23.6 17.2 13.0 11.8 14.7
Source:Edelweissresearch
8 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
JKCement
AdditionalData
DirectorsData
Dr.K.BAgarwal Independent,NonExecutive(Chairman) ShriYadupatiSinghania ManagingDirector&CEO
Mr.PaulHeinzHugentobler AdditionalDirector ShriAchintyaKarati Independent
SmtSushilaDeviSinghania NonIndependent ShriJ.N.Godbole Independent
ShriShyamLalBansal Independent ShriK.N.Khandelwal Independent
ShriR.K.Lohia Independent ShriSuparasBhandari Independent
AuditorsP.L.TANDON&CO.
*asperlastannualreport
HoldingTop10
Perc.Holding Perc.Holding
FranklinResources 9.20 FMRLLC 5.02
HDFCLifeInsuranceCoLtd 3.84 TempletonAssetMgmt 2.84
DSPBlackrockInvestmentManager 1.27 SundaramAssetManagementCoLtd 1.27
TataAssetManagementLtd 1.00 GeneralInsuranceCorpofIndia 1.00
DimensionalFundAdvisorsLP 0.91 RelianceCapitalTrusteeCoLtd 0.84
*asperlastavailabledata
BulkDeals
Data Acquired/Seller B/S QtyTraded Price
25Jan2017 YadupatiGaurSinghania Sell 2000000 705.35
25Jan2017 RelianceMutualFundRelianceSmallCapFund Buy 586000 705.45
25Jan2017 DspBlackrockMutualFundDspBlackrockMicroCapFund Buy 533019 705.00
*inlastoneyear
InsiderTrades
ReportingData Acquired/Seller B/S QtyTraded
30Jan2017 ShriYadupatiSinghania Sell 2000000.00
*inlastoneyear
9 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
RATING&INTERPRETATION
ABSOLUTERATING
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months
RELATIVERETURNSRATING
Ratings Criteria
Sector Outperformer (SO) Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector
RELATIVERISKRATING
Ratings Criteria
SECTORRATING
Ratings Criteria
Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return
10 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
JK Cement
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited,EdelweissHouse,offC.S.T.Road,Kalina,Mumbai400098.
Board:(9122)40094400,Email:research@edelweissfin.com
ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED,
AdityaNarain ou=HEAD RESEARCH, cn=ADITYA NARAIN,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c27990f
20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792c20,
HeadofResearch
NARAIN
postalCode=400005,
2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8e0c
89e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c07b02,
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com st=Maharashtra
Date: 2017.08.16 21:20:34 +05'30'
Coveragegroup(s)ofstocksbyprimaryanalyst(s):Cement
ACC,AmbujaCementLtd,GrasimIndustries,IndiaCements,JKCement,ShreeCements,UltraTechCement
RecentResearch
Date Company Title Price(INR) Recos
14Aug17 Grasim Coreoperationsstaystrong; 1,109 Buy
Industries ResultUpdate
04Aug17 India Committedtoprunedebt; 198 Buy
Cements ResultUpdate
01Aug17 Shree Soaringrealisationoffsetscost 18,632 Buy
Cements escalation;
ResultUpdate
DistributionofRatings/MarketCap
EdelweissResearchCoverageUniverse RatingInterpretation
Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Expectedto
RatingDistribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciatemorethan15%overa12monthperiod
*1stocksunderreview
Hold appreciateupto15%overa12monthperiod
>50bn Between10bnand50bn <10bn
Reduce depreciatemorethan5%overa12monthperiod
MarketCap(INR) 156 62 11
Oneyearpricechart
1,200
1,050
900
(INR)
750
600
450
Apr17
Sep16
Feb17
Dec16
Mar17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug16
Aug17
Oct16
Nov16
May17
Jan17
JKCement
11 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
Cement
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12 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
JK Cement
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