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STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Stopie II
ZZ1
Weronika Pluskota
wiczenie 5.

I. INTRODUCTION

In this project I will make a scenario analysis of agritourist farm. I will give five
macro-factors which have an influence on agritourist farms success and
determine the scale of importance, type of tendency and probability of this
factors.

II. SCENARIO ANAYSIS

1. Macro-factors

- Size of competition
- Lifestyle of potential customers
- Political restrictions
- Advertising and information flow
- UE grants

2. Type of tendency, scale of importance and probability

Type of Scale of
Probability
tendency importance
1. Size of -2 0,4
competition
-1 0,3
+3 0,2
Type of Scale of
Probability
2. Lifestyle of tendency importance
potential +3 0,5
customers
+1 0,2
-3 0,1

Type of Scale of
Probability
tendency importance
3. Political
restrictions -3 0,6
-1 0,2
+2 0,2

Type of Scale of
Probability
4. Advertising tendency importance
and +2 0,3
information
1 0,4
flow
-1 0,3

Type of Scale of
Probability
tendency importance
5. UE grants +3 0,5
1 0,3
-1 0,2
The most positive:

Size of competition +3 0,2


Lifestyle of potential customers +3 0,5
Political restrictions +2 0,2
Advertising and information flow +2 0,3
UE grants +3 0,5
Ap=0,34

The most pessimistic:

Size of competition -2 0,4


Lifestyle of potential customers -3 0,1
Political restrictions -3 0,6
Advertising and information flow -1 0,3
UE grants -1 0,2
Ap=0,32

The most probable:

Size of competition -2 0,4


Lifestyle of potential customers +3 0,5
Political restrictions -3 0,6
Advertising and information flow 1 0,4
UE grants +3 0,5
Ap=0,48

III. CONCLUSIONS

This scenario analysis allowed to get the most positive, the most pessimistic and
the most probable effect of even macro-factor.