Instructions

Daily Price Forward Curve

(DPFC)

A cooperation of

Montel
&
Lenz Energy
1 Installation........................................................................................................................ 3
2 Warning............................................................................................................................ 3
3 Systematics..................................................................................................................... 4
4 Running the DPFC-Excel-Template.................................................................................4
4.1 What means free of arbitrage................................................................................4
4.2 The Sheet dpfc Output..........................................................................................4
4.2.1 System Settings...................................................................................................5
4.2.2 Generating a DPFC.............................................................................................6
4.2.3 The macro Update Settlement, Bid, Ask............................................................6
4.2.4 The macro export to csv....................................................................................7
4.2.5 Copy prices.......................................................................................................... 7
5 Accessing DPFC via FTP-Server.....................................................................................8
6 Version............................................................................................................................. 8

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1 Installation
This DPFC was tested under Microsoft Excel 2003 and Microsoft Excel 2010. It works with
both versions but calculation times under Excel 2003 are significantly higher

Please follow the instructions in the email you receive to download the file DPFC.XLS. After
downloading you can save the file locally or download it again from the Montel-FTP-Server
every time you use it. Please do not save it under a different name than DPFC.XLS,
otherwise the macros might not work anymore.

If you receive another mail to download a new version please do so in order get latest
updates.

Currently the DPFC was tested Excel in German language, it should work also with MS Excel
in other languages. If you experience problemes here please contact Montel support.

We have tested this excel template carefully. But there might be still market constellations or
bugs which cause problems. If you experience any problems with the excel sheet or with the
excel feeder please contact the Montel support under http://support.montel.no. You can open
a new ticket here and desribe the problem. You can write that also in German.

2 Warning

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Please do not enter lines or columns anywhere in the sheet, otherwise references or macros
might not be able to work or produce wrong results

3 Systematics
The Daily Price Forward Curve (DPFC) was calculated by analysing historical EEX spot
prices and their distribution including time and weather dependencies.

For the calculation of the DPFC last settlement and current bid and ask prices of the EEX
NCG, GPF and TTF areas are used. The EEX prices have the advantage, that during core
trading times market makers keep bids and ask for nearly all contracts in the system.

4 Running the DPFC-Excel-Template

Please open DPFC.XLS, be sure that macros are activated. The macros will not harm
anything on your computer.

When the XLS-file is opened please start the Excel-Feeder if it was not started automatically,
and log-in. Please wait some seconds until price links in the sheet are updated.

If the excel-feeder is installed and does not start, start it by choosing XLF in the Excel menu
Add-ins and log in.

4.1 What means free of arbitrage

Free of arbitrage or absence of arbitrage means, that i.e. the daily weighed sum of all
quarters base prices is the base price of the calendar year, or, another example, that the
daily weighed average of July, August and September base prices is the same as the price of
the 3rd quarter.

The settlement prices of the EEX are by definition always free of arbitrage, so no correction
is necessary here. With current bid and ask prices the situation is different, prices are very
often not free of arbitrage. That is why we created a possibility to correct them in a way to
make them free of arbitrage again.

How is that done? We choose a bottom up approach here. The price for a monthly contract
will be taken. If there is no price for a month, the quarterly prices are used to set a price for
the missing months. And then eventually the yearly prices. Now with a price for every month
in the observation period, the quarterly and yearly prices are rebuilt.

4.2 The Sheet dpfc Output

The sheet dpfc Output is the command and output center of the DPFC

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4.2.1 System Settings

On the right, you find a system field with the version and its release date.

The update time can also be used in order to check whether prices are already updated after
opening the excel file and the excel feeder.

The Excel sheet works only with a valid license key. If no valid key is entered, the excel sheet
is not able to make calculatations. Please enter the license key in the appropriate field. The
sheet expiry field will turn into the validity date. If this doesnt work, please contact Montel
sales.

The sheet expiry gives the date until this sheet is valid. The calculation function will not work
anymore after that date. Please download an updated sheet before that date

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4.2.2 Generating a DPFC

It contains of some macro buttons, settings and the output range for the DPFC (line 13 and
below).

Enter the start and end date you want to calculate the DPFC for. The minimum and maximum
values which are possible are given to the right on minimum (next months) and maximum
(currently end of 2015). If you enter dates outside of this range the numbers will
automatically corrected to minimum or maximum values and you will receive an warning
message.

The timestamp gives date and time of the update

4.2.3 The macro Update Settlement, Bid, Ask

This macro calculates a DPFC with the last settlement prices and the current bid and ask
prices of the EEX. Also an average between bid and ask is calculated

This macro uses an algorithm in order to fill gaps of missing market prices and to make these
prices free of arbitrage. For details about this algorithm please read section 4.1

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4.2.4 The macro export to csv

This macro allows you to export the content of columns A to J to a csv-file. After clicking the
macro button, excel will ask you where to save this sheet (including path)

After some seconds you will receive a message that the file was exported.

4.2.5 Copy prices

To copy prices mark first line of the columns you would like to copy. Move mouse pointer to
the bottom of the frame until mouse pointer is a cross. Press and hold shift and double-click
left mouse button. Then you can copy the whole price row and paste it somewhere else.

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5 Accessing DPFC via FTP-Server
There is also the possibility to download the HPFC in csv-files from our ftp-server. The ftp-
address is ftp://ftp.hdpfc.com. The HPFC is updated every 15 minutes on trading days
between 9:00 and 16:45.

6 Version
This Version of the DPFC Instructions was released on November 9th, 2012. relating to
Version Number 1.000.