U.S.

Afghanistan Conflict
Andrew C. Caldwell

Salt Lake Community College

Professor Mazinani

Political Science 2100 International Politics

Thursday, July 6, 2017

 Caldwell 2

Abstract

This paper provides a brief history of the U.S. Afghanistan War. It provides a basic context of

the conflict by summarizing the wars origins, and also military actions taken against Al-Qaeda

and the Taliban. It summarizes issues occurring after major military operations were concluded,

such as insurgency. It then later attempts to analyze the conflict through the lens of Charles L.

Glasers theory of contingent-realism. The paper explains how relative gains in either

technological weapons advancement or newly formed security alliances actually can diminish a

nations overall security position instead of enhancing the states strategic and security position.
 Caldwell 3

Summary of the Conflict

The U.S. Afghanistan conflict is termed as Americas forgotten war. It is also Americas

longest running war going on for about the past 16 years - as of the writing of this paper. The

war unofficially began when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979. The CIA ended up

entering the theater later on and providing material and arms support for the Afghan resistance

fighters, who called themselves the Mujahideen. Equipped with U.S. weaponry such as the

stinger missile system, the Mujahideen fighters easily disabled a good number of the Soviets

Hind helicopters in battle. This operation by CIA turned out to be an incredible tactical success.

The Soviets did not expect to encounter such heavy resistance, and ultimately ended up pulling

out of Afghanistan and retreating back to the Russian border in 1989.1

After the war with the Soviet Union, the Mujahideen resistance experienced infighting

amongst its own ranks, while simultaneously feuding with other Afghan tribes within the region.

This infighting created rivalrous factions within the Mujahideen. The Taliban was thus then

formed out of this division. A former Islamic Mujahideen resistance fighter named Mullah Omar

became the new leader of the Taliban. The Taliban ultimately ended up controlling the country

of Afghanistan with its capture of the capital city, Kabul, in the early 1990s.2 The Taliban later

formed an alliance with Osama bin Laden, the leader of the terrorist group Al Qaida, in 1996.

This happening after bin Laden and Al Qaida were exiled from the Sudan.3 The alliance between

1
" ." YouTube. February 08, 2014. Accessed July 06, 2017.
https://youtu.be/DuQA8U43OYU.

2
"The Day The West Invaded Afghanistan - Afghanistan War - Military Documentary Channel." YouTube. July
10, 2015. Accessed July 06, 2017. https://youtu.be/ZfkXxXiOBlw.
3
Carafano, James. "Getting the Facts Straight on the Taliban." The Daily Signal. October 03, 2012. Accessed July
06, 2017. http://dailysignal.com/2012/01/17/getting-the-facts-straight-on-the-taliban/
 Caldwell 4

Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden was beneficial for both, as Mullah Omar provided shelter

and protection for bin Laden and Al Qaida, where bin Laden bankrolled Mullah Omar and the

Taliban in return. Osama bin Laden used the country of Afghanistan as a base to set up his terror

training camps that were used to plot terror attacks out against the U.S. and other countries, most

notably, attacks such as the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole and the September 11th terrorist attacks.4

During the Clinton administration, Clinton did decide to retaliate against bin Laden by launching

cruise missiles at his terror camps in 1998.5 President Clinton and his advisors also had multiple

chances to avert the September 11th attacks by killing bin Laden, but Clinton and his security

advisors opted for political optics over that of taking military action to protect Americas security

and strategic interests.6

After the September 11th attacks the U.S. demanded that the Afghan government

surrender Osama bin Laden over to U.S. custody. The Afghans refused stating that it was against

their customs, that being the customs of a host protecting his guest, and the guest showing their

loyalty and respect for the host in return. This did not sit well with the U.S. Next, President Bush

authorized a series of heavy airstrikes and a light ground assault with the orders to remove the

Taliban and kill Osama bin Laden. The CIA went back into Afghanistan territory with about 30

operatives armed on hand with a few million dollars each. They then bought the allegiance of the

Northern Alliance to help defeat the Taliban and kill Osama bin Laden. The Northern Alliance

4
"Al-Qaida timeline: Plots and attacks." NBCNews.com. March 10, 2010. Accessed July 06, 2017.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/4677978/ns/world_news-hunt_for_al_qaida/t/al-qaida-timeline-plots-
attacks/#.WV7jBOmQyM8
5
"Afghanistan profile - Timeline." BBC News. July 02, 2017. Accessed July 06, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-12024253.
6
Kessler, Glenn. "Bill Clinton and the missed opportunities to kill Osama bin Laden." The Washington Post.
February 16, 2016. Accessed July 06, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-
checker/wp/2016/02/16/bill-clinton-and-the-missed-opportunities-to-kill-osama-bin-
laden/?utm_term=.5d6f3fd99068
 Caldwell 5

being a group of loosely allied tribes that were unified fundamentally through their resistance

and opposition to Taliban rule. The initial military operations were largely a rapid success. The

Taliban lost control of the northern country and the capital city of Kabul fell to coalition forces

within around 5-6 weeks of the initial engagement.7

The leader of the Northern Alliance was a tribal warlord named Hamid Karzai. Karzai

was then made president of the country of Afghanistan. NATO took over control of formal

military operations after 2005, and the decision was then made to expand military operations out

into southern Taliban territories such as the Helmand Province.8 The main issue that U.S. led

forces faced from then until now, within Afghanistan, was the problem of insurgency and waging

counter-insurgency. There have been other issues and controversy within Afghanistan also, the

U.S. backed Karzai regime has been accused of corruption and fraud.9 Accusations have been

levied at coalition forces remaining in Afghanistan as only being present there as to exploit the

opium fields.10 Top targets such as Osama bin Laden and some top Taliban officials were said to

have fled out of the country, where U.S. forces were ultimately bogged down in conflict, and

thus unable to immediately leave the area and pursue. Although Osama bin Laden was later

found hiding in Pakistan and killed in a U.S. night raid conducted by U.S. special forces in

2011.11 Mullah Omar is rumored to have died of natural causes in 2013.12 President Obama

7
"The Day The West Invaded Afghanistan - Afghanistan War - Military Documentary Channel." YouTube. July
10, 2015. Accessed July 06, 2017. https://youtu.be/ZfkXxXiOBlw.

8
Ibid.

9
Ibid.
10
Ibid.
11
"Usama Bin Laden Killed in Firefight With U.S. Special Ops Team in Pakistan." Fox News. Accessed July 07,
2017. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/05/01/usama-bin-laden-dead-say-sources.html.
12
"Mullah Omar: Taliban leader 'died in Pakistan in 2013'." BBC News. July 29, 2015. Accessed July 07, 2017.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33703097.
 Caldwell 6

officially announced the end of formal military operations in 2014.13 However, there are still

U.S. forces stationed in Afghanistan and the fighting and chaos continues to this day. The latest

news on Afghanistan is that President Trump is said to be considering a surge to in order to deal

with the growing problem of violence and insurgency currently overtaking the region.14

Levels of Analysis

The best, and the most explanatory, level of analysis to place the U.S. Afghanistan conflict

under is the theory of contingent-realism that Charles L. Glaser lays out in his essay Realists as

Optimists.15 In Glasers essay, he puts forth his tenants for contingent-realism. Glaser states that

contingent-realism is more optimistic, than say, a John Mearsheimers structural-realism. Where

structural-realism states that adversaries, and potential adversaries, have a natural propensity to

compete. Glaser says that this is not necessarily a logical consequence of structural-realisms

basic assumptions.16 This appears to be clearly the case in regard to the U.S.- Afghanistan

conflict, where Glasers statement would fit the specifics of this particular conflict, at least in

part. There was no real competition between the two nations. There was no arms race between

the nations. Glaser says that structural-realism properly understood states that nations

13
"Statement by the President on the End of the Combat Mission in Afghanistan." National Archives and Records
Administration. Accessed July 06, 2017. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-
office/2014/12/28/statement-president-end-combat-mission-afghanistan

14
John J. Xenakis. "Trump Considers Troop Surge and Strategy Change in Afghanistan War." Breitbart. May 10,
2017. Accessed July 06, 2017. http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/05/10/10-may-17-world-view-
trump-considers-new-troop-surge-and-strategy-change-in-afghanistan-war/.

15
Brown, Michael E. Theories of war and peace: an international security reader. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT-Press,
2001. Pgs. 94-97
16
Ibid.
 Caldwell 7

achieve their security goals through cooperation.17 Much like with how the U.S. had previously

helped the Afghanis defend their country against the Soviet Invasion. Sure, Glaser was most

likely referring to super powers and arms racing in his original writings, although it is not clear

how his analysis doesnt apply to a nuclear armed super-power helping a smaller conventionally

armed nation despite the fact that the two nations may not have been rivals at the time. Yet the

two later ended up going to war with one another. The U.S. may not have been on the best of

terms with the government of Afghanistan after the Clinton cruise missile strikes, but there had

been diplomatic relations and cooperation in the past leading up to the September 11th terrorist

attacks. The U.S. had also previously cooperated directly/indirectly with Al-Qaida.18 So, Glasers

interpretation of realism is more applicable in this specific instance, than say, the other more

popular variants of realism.

There are three other distinct premises of contingent-realism that apply to this specific

conflict. 1) States try to maximize relative power, which creates a zero-sum situation that

usually precludes cooperation; 2) states concerns over relative gains make security cooperation

especially difficult; and 3) states adopt competitive policies because the possibility of cheating

makes cooperation too risky.19 What Glaser is partially saying here is that if a nation develops a

new weapon, such as well say, a new cold fusion weapon, this will likely increase the countries

relative gains in offensive or defensive capabilities. A state will usually jump all over the

prospects for new weapon technologies, there is nothing more sacred to a state than increasing its

17
Ibid.
18
Rosenberg, Matthew. "C.I.A. Cash Ended Up in Coffers of Al Qaeda." The New York Times. March 14, 2015.
Accessed July 07, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/15/world/asia/cia-funds-found-their-way-into-al-qaeda-
coffers.html.
19
Brown, Michael E. Theories of war and peace: an international security reader. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT-Press,
2001. Pgs. 94-97
 Caldwell 8

defensive and offensive security capabilities. Glaser says however, that this new gain in weapons

technology will in fact, have its drawbacks also, by potentially decreasing the states overall

security, while only slightly raising the countries relative gains in its newly obtained capabilities.

The problem is, that now that this country has this new weapon, another country might worry

that the country that has possession of this new weapon plans to use it against them in the near

future, and thus ops to conduct a pre-emptive strike. This development of new weapons and

technology could also prompt another nation to develop devastating counter-measures that

previously didnt exist. If the new technology, or new counter-measures, were misused or fell

into the wrong hands, could that nation then say that their overall security had increased because

of their weapons development? They in fact couldnt say that, the nation would be overall less

secure. The fact remains that there now are more devastating weapons existing that could be

potentially used that didnt previously exist. So, relative gains increase, and overall security

decreases.

So, how does this relative gains/overall security theory apply to the U.S Afghanistan

conflict? Well if we look at Mullah Omars alliance with Osama bin Laden in terms of relative

gains vs. overall security the picture becomes clearer. Instead of developing a new weapons

technology, a mutual alliance between the Taliban and Al-Qaida was a relative gain for both

sides. The Taliban used bin Ladens money to bolster its forces, authority, and rule within the

region. This added an additional force that could now be used to confront any challenge put up

by any potential hostile tribe within the region looking to unseat the Taliban. On the other side,

Al-Qaida used Afghanistan as a sanctuary to conduct and stage its terror operations against the

U.S. a relative gain. History will show us that the Talibans and Al-Qaidas overall security is

currently now much diminished, if not totally devastated, from their alliance and the actions
 Caldwell 9

taken by each entity thereafter conducting attacks on the U.S. This alliance of course, again, was

formed all in order to achieve a marginal relative gain on each of their adversaries. While it is

true that Taliban combatant numbers may be higher now with the U.S. military dealing with

problems of insurgency, the original Islamic leaders and fighters power positions, the ones who

originally started the conflict, are much diminished, if not devastated altogether.

There is more that structural-realism and contingent-realism cannot tell us here, as no

one existent theory can explain all of the different aspects and angles to a foreign conflict. There

are other aspects such as nation-building and insurgency that arent explained clearly enough by

realism. Suicidal Islamic philosophic belief is also another important aspect to this conflict, best

described on the individual level, which has the best overall explanatory power covering that

particular area. Realism is not good at explaining ideological differences which carry heavy

weight in analysis, and are often frequently overlooked. It does hold that contingent-realism does

the best to explain the initial aspects of power politics as to the origins to the U.S.- Afghanistan

conflict though.

Conclusion

In summary, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda formed an alliance to bolster each others overall power

positions within Afghanistan and also within the larger world. The Taliban viewed Al-Qaedas

financial support and additional fighters as a relative gain toward maintaining its own position of

dominancy within the region. Al-Qaeda looked at the Taliban as a host which would house and

shelter its terrorist training cells, in which Al-Qaeda likewise could then plan and carry out its

later terrorist attacks, with Al-Qaedas ultimate intention of instigating a larger Islamic

revolution against the West. Al-Qaeda similarly viewed this arrangement as a relative gain. The
 Caldwell 10

U.S. had cooperated with Afghanistan in the past, which is consistent with the theory of

contingent realism, and likewise contradicts specific tenants of structural realism. These relative

gains of both factions, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, were upheld until the terrorist attacks, namely

the September 11th attacks, caused the U.S. to retaliate and ultimately led to both the Talibans

and Al-Qaedas overall security to be diminished greatly, if not extinguished in perpetuity by the

following deaths of Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden. Cleary, relative gains made through a

mutual alliance diminished each sides overall security.

 Caldwell 11

Bibliography

"Afghanistan profile - Timeline." BBC News. July 02, 2017. Accessed July 06, 2017.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-12024253.

"Al-Qaida timeline: Plots and attacks." NBCNews.com. March 10, 2010. Accessed July 06,

2017.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/4677978/ns/world_news-hunt_for_al_qaida/t/al-qaida-

timeline-plots-attacks/#.WV7jBOmQyM8

Brown, Michael E. Theories of war and peace: an international security reader. Cambridge,

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2017. http://dailysignal.com/2012/01/17/getting-the-facts-straight-on-the-taliban/

Kessler, Glenn. "Bill Clinton and the missed opportunities to kill Osama bin Laden." The

Washington Post.

February 16, 2016. Accessed July 06, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-

checker/wp/2016/02/16/bill-clinton-and-the-missed-opportunities-to-kill-osama-bin-

laden/?utm_term=.5d6f3fd99068

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33703097.

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 Caldwell 12

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" ." YouTube. February 08, 2014. Accessed July 06, 2017.

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