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Cultura Documentos
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28 AUG ,2017
Index
Market View 1
G LO B AL INT ER EST R AT ES WILL D ET ERM IN E F UT U R E OF TH E M AR K ET
Company Update 2
The global rally has started with abundant liquidity backed by many
Around the quantitative easing and stimulus packages declared by developed coun-
Economy 3
tries lead by USA and China. This stimulus programs have flooded the
Knowledge Corner 3 market with liquidity and the interest rates have fallen to historically low
levels, either at zero or negative category. This scenario has resulted
Mutual Fund 4 into very low financial cost which has improved corporate margin signifi-
Commodity Corner 5 cantly world over. Very significant chunk of this easy money have found
its way to equity market and fueled the rally. Now the central banks
Forex Corner 6 world over have started to think to raise the interest rates gradually.
They are in dilemma weather the economy can sustain the rise in rates
Report Card 7
or not. USA has started to raise the rates from December 2016 onwards.
Short Term Call Status 8 The market is expecting another round of rise by Fed in this calendar
year. Any steep rise either in September or December may affect the
market sentiment negatively.
Special Contributors At local level, good monsoon is impacting the market positively but
Kunal Shah
Dhaval Ghodasara the development at GST level is much more important at present. The
initial statements by Government officers are encouraging and positive.
The collection for the month of July is above their expectation and the
number of filing of returns are also encouraging. Any good collection of
GST will give a much required Phillip to the economy. The only concern
is of effect on working capital due to GST. The picture will be clear
within three months or so but the initial reports are encouraging. Techni-
For suggestions, feedback cally any rise above 9880-9950 and 10050 will take the Nifty to new
and queries heights. Any fall below 9750-9665 may trigger the fall.
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com
Kamal Jhaveri
MD- Jhaveri Securities
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Outlook and valuation : We recommend BUY on the stock BUY rating for the stock and value DHFL at
SoTP valuations, with a t a r g e t p r i c e o f R s . 5 3 0 w i t h P / E o f 1 4 .
Company Overview :
Incorporated in Maharashtra in 1984 as Dewan Housing Finance & Leasing Co, the company was renamed as Dewan
Housing Development Finance in 1984, then after to Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFC) with its registered office
in Bombay.
The company provides housing finance to individuals, co-operative societies, corporate bodies or their nominated employ-
ees, groups of persons, etc, and leases commercial and residential premises to reputed companies.
DEWH continues to capitalize on its mortgage lending expertize in an Under penetrated market. Its focus on being a core
mortgage finance player is demonstrated by the fact that it is divesting non-core assets such as the life insurance busi-
ness.
The government focus on affordable housing segment and the concept of housing for all.
The decreasing rate of interest on housing loans is also providing a good support to housing companies.
DHFL is bound to be a key beneficiary of governments initiative to promote affordable housing given its presence in tier
II/III cities and lower ticket size.
Its gradual transformation to a core mortgage player with strong growth and healthy return ratios
Asset quality continues to remain robust
Asset quality continues to show strong resilience as Gross non-performing asset (NPA) ratio declined marginally by 1 bp
QoQ to 0.9%. Gross NPA ratio of DHFL have been consistently below ~1% over the last seven years.
Strong growth of AUM of 20% (yoy) and NII at the reate of 22%.
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US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday, 22 August 2017, he might terminate the NAFTA trade treaty with Mexico and
Canada after three-way talks failed to bridge deep differences. The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is sched-
uled on 25 August 2017, in Wyoming. Representatives from the central banks of more than 40 countries will attend the annual
gathering, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data for August 2017 will be unveiled on Wednesday, 30 August 2017. US Q2 Gross Do-
mestic Product (GDP) data will be unveiled on Wednesday, 30 August 2017. US Nonfarm Payrolls data for August 2017 will be un-
veiled on Friday, 1 September 2017. ISM Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for August 2017 will be unveiled on Fri-
day, 1 September 2017.
Knowledge Corner :
BUY BACK
A buyback is repurchase of shares, means company purchase their own shares from market which in turn reduces
the open share in market.
Why it is important?
By reducing the number of shares outstanding on the market, buybacks increase the proportion of shares owned by enduring inves-
tors. A buyback also boosts the proportional share of earnings a share is allocated.A company may feel its shares are undervalued
and buy them back to provide investors with a return.
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Medium
Small
Fund
VR Balanced
(Rebased to 10,000) Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com
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Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week, bullion prices ended with losses where Silver prices dropped by 6.58 percent and gold dropped
by 2.30 percent after stronger than expected United States jobs data increased the likelihood of another U.S. interest rate
increase and the dollar rose. The latest batch of mostly upbeat jobs data, fuelled expectations that the Fed would continue
with its plan to hike rates later this year, spurring an uptick in both the dollar and bond yields while decreasing demand for
the precious metal.Minutes of the Federal Reserves June meeting showed a lack of consensus among policymakers over
the outlook for inflation and how it could impact the future pace of interest rate increases. The Bureau of Labor Statistics re-
ported, nonfarm payrolls grew by 222,000 in June, well above expectations of a 179000 increase, but the unemployment
rate fell to 4.4%, a notch above forecasts of 4.3%.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL GOLD @ 27950 SL 28250 TGT 27400 SELL SILVER @36500 SL 36950 TGT 35000
BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL : Base metals prices ended with mixed node as prices seen some pressure on Friday as the dollar gained
after a report showed the U.S. economy created far more jobs than expected in June and the previous months. The mood in
Chinese markets has been cautious ahead of a raft of data expected to show steady growth, although government meas-
ures to rein in the housing market and debt risks are likely to drag on activity in the next few quarters. Copper prices
dropped as the dollar gained, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates at least once this year. Chiles
Antofagasta Minerals said it was facing potential strikes at two mines.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL ALUMINIUM @ 125 SL 127 TGT 122 SELL COPPER @ 382 SL 388 TGT 370 SELL ZINC @ 183 SL 189 TGT
176-172 SELL NICKEL @ 590 SL 600 TGT 570.
ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL : Crude oil prices dropped by over 3% as pressure after investors braced for a rise in Libyan output while the
number of active U.S. drilling rigs rose. An unexpected rise in US crude stocks last week intensified concerns that the con-
tinuing production cuts by the OPEC and Russia arent effectively reducing the glut of oil that has suppressed oil prices for
over two years. The report showed a surprise rise of 3.3mbls in crude inventoriesthe first weekly rise in nine weeks, as
well as increases in gasoline and distillate stockpiles and weak demand for petroleum products. The Organization of the Pe-
troleum Exporting Countries and other big producers have agreed to pump almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) less than
they supplied at the end of last year, and hold output there until the first quarter of 2018.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL CRUDE @ 2900 SL 2980 TGT 2780-2700 SELL NAT.GAS @ 190 SL 196 TGT 180.
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Commodity Corner
Forex Corner
Market Recap :
The USDINR On daily chart pair below all short term, medium term, and long term moving average which is 20,
100 and 200.Whereas on weekly chart pair has continually taking support at 50WMA. Which suggest short term
trend is bearish. So for trading perspective, one could sell to the level 64.30-64.40 with SL of 64.80 for target of
63.90-63.70.
USD/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
USD/INR 63.90 63.96 64.09 64.15 64.28 64.21 64.02 64.03
EUR/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
EUR/INR 74.94 75.23 75.50 75.79 76.06 75.78 75.22 75.51
GBP/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
GBP/INR 81.33 81.73 82.30 82.70 83.27 82.87 81.90 82.13
JPY/INR
Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Close
JPY/INR 58.27 58.42 58.66 58.81 59.05 58.90 58.51 58.57
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Alembic Pharmaceuti-
30/08/2016 630 513 732 -19% Buy
cals
Wonderla 25/04/2016 387 338 498 -13% Buy
Sadbhav Engineering
04/05/2015 298 269 430 -10% Buy
Ltd.
M&M 12/01/2015 1238 1374 1450 11% Profit Book
On Saving, Dont save what is left after saving , but spend what is left after saving.
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TA+PB 17 73.91
SL+EXIT 06 26.09
TOTAL 23 100.00
One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)
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