A Case Study on Alleviating Electric Transmission Congestion Using Dynamic Thermal
Rating Methodology
Muhammad Zafran, Muhammad Naeem Arbab,
Imtiaz Ahmad
Department of Electrical Engineering,
University of Engineering and Technology,
Peshawar, Pakistan.
Abstract Electric transmission congestion has always been a
longstanding concern faced by Power System Operators of Pakistan
(PSOP) due to uncontrollable power demand growth and outdated
electric transmission infrastructure. For this reason, reliable and
economic power supply is being frequently interrupted in order to
relieve congestion even when adequate power supply is available. A
possible solution is upgrading and expanding transmission lines by
reconducting old lines, or, through construction of new ones. But the
huge economic investment and the suffocating national economy are
putting serious hurdles for such infrastructure improvement. More
importantly, only infrastructure improvement is not a solution
because of the exponential demand growth and the increasing need
for power utilization from cheap energy sites and renewable energy
sources. Hence, there is an urgent need for smart transmission
systems that can monitor controlling factors (i.e. weather parameters
and conductor thermal condition) in real time and estimate maximum
allowable current carrying capacity (or ampacity) for optimal
utilization.
This paper presents an alternative solution based on Dynamic
Thermal Rating (DTR) to alleviate electric transmission congestion
and to keep power system intact especially in contingencies. The
detailed assessment of Power System of Pakistan (PSP) reveals
conservative and static approaches employed in rating overhead
transmission lines and fixing protection equipments settings. As a
case study, 132KV transmission line in Lahore region of Pakistan
was chosen keeping in view meteorological data availability and
prevailing overloading issue in the area. The analysis discovers that
smart adaptations based upon varying weather conditions, like
ambient temperature, wind speeds, wind direction, solar radiations as
well as adjustable conductor temperature, provide a feasible scenario
for dynamic rating of transmission lines. Aggregating all supposed
conditions, additional lines capacity can be increased up by 38.15%
and 51.34% on average for day and night time respectively.
Keywords Congestion mitigation; dynamic thermal rating;
overhead conductors ratings; reliable power transmission; smart
transmission lines.
I. Introduction and Related
Work
1
Reliable and secure power supply to the valued
consumers has been an overriding and longstanding concern
faced by Power System Operators of Pakistan (PSOP).
Besides uncontrollable power deficiency, transmission
congestion is also adding to the prevailing power crisis.
Electric congestion occurs when transmission lines are unable
1
This work was carried out at University of Engineering and
Technology (UET), Peshawar, Pakistan.
Muhammad Usman Karim Khan
Chair for Embedded Systems,
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,
Karlsruhe, Germany.
to carry the requisite power to end consumers. Consequently,
consumers are cut off through forced load-shedding or
planned outages to protect the system reliability and security.
Infrastructure upgrading can lessen congestion, but the huge
economic burden forms the barrier for sustainable energy
supply. Therefore, an alternative solution is a need of the hour.
For a possible alternative to relieve congestion, the
predominant role of current overloading due to conservative
approaches employed in Power System of Pakistan (PSP)
needs to be analyzed. According to [1], current overloading in
PSP is a significant factor behind transmission congestion and
power supply interruptions. Similarly, conservative
approaches based on adverse climatic and conductor thermal
conditions are integrated into rating of transmission lines and
protection equipments settings. Protection relays are bound to
sense overloading condition whenever current exceeds their
static settings. Instead, if relays settings are made subject to
actual climatic and conductor thermal conditions, adjustable
within permissible limits, it is highly likely that transmission
lines can be capacitated and adapted to counter the congestion
contingencies.
Therefore, real time thermal rating of transmission lines is
essential for optimal utilization of their current carrying
capacity. Generally, two techniques are used to assess thermal
rating of overhead transmission conductors; that are: the static
rating and the Dynamic Thermal Rating (DTR). The former is
based on worst case scenario (i.e. low conductor operating
temperature, low wind speed, high ambient temperature and
high solar radiations) [2]. The later, DTR, is dictated by real
time monitoring of the actual ambient and conductor thermal
conditions, that helps to maximize capacity of transmission
lines [3]. Different methodologies have been devised based on
conductors data and ambient weather condition to determine
thermal rating of overhead conductors, such as [4], [5] and [6].
Furthermore, the research has also focused on various
procedures and devices for optimal utilization of transmission
lines. For example, in [7], the researchers have proposed to
install a direct sag measuring device to minimize the
curtailment of wind power connected to 70kV network in
south-east Belgium. They have determined that capacity can
be increased up to 30% on average, and it rises up to 100% for
wind speeds greater than 4m/s perpendicular to the line. In [8],
the authors have suggested an adaptive Echo State Network
for effective utilization of power lines under different weather
conditions, and have used only temperatures and line current
as inputs to make the assessment more attractive and cost
1
effective. Offline power transfer capability evaluation of the
Albanian transmission lines based upon meteorological
information in the region has been done by [9]. The purpose
was to alleviate congestion to counter generation and demand
needs. Role of weather parameters in dynamic rating can also
be found in [10] and [11].
II. Problem Formulation
A. Current-Temperature Determination
Thermal limit of overhead conductors is a main factor in
determining maximum allowable capacity (or ampacity) of
conductors. Violating thermal limit can result in annealing of
aluminum (a main element of Aluminum Conductor Steel
Reinforced (ACSR) conductors), thus it decreases ground
clearance and can cause thermal breakdown of conductor [12].
Moreover, according to [4], conductor operating temperature
(Tc) is function of its material properties, diameter, surface
conditions, ambient weather conditions and electric current.
Aggregating all these factors, DTR can be calculated by the
following heat balance equation, given in [4]:
(1)
Here, qc and qr represent heat losses owing to convection
and long wave radiation respectively, while qs and I2R(Tc) are
the heat gain due to solar radiation and Joule heating
respectively. All these heat parameters are measured in W/m.
The part, mCp, is measured in J/moC and shows heat capacity
of the conductor.
For steady-state conditions, the ampacity of conductor is
evaluated by setting dTc/dt to zero (under supposition that
conductor temperature is in equilibrium). Solution for current
carrying capacity of conductor is explained in IEEE Standard
738TM-2006 [4] for given weather conditions and steady state
conditions. Our proposed analysis is also based on
methodology suggested by [4].
B. Selection of Rating Parameters
Judicious selection of rating parameters is central to this
analysis. For this, rating parameters are classified into two
types: dynamic parameters and fixed parameters. The former
is an underlying factor behind DTR, while the latter is
assumed conservative (explained later). The variability in
dynamic parameters is subject to conductor thermal status and
ambient conditions, while changes in fixed parameters are
subject to geographical changes and conductors type [4].
Another important factor is the selection of appropriate
transmission line. The reason is the unavailability of the
detailed meteorological statistics of the areas and transmission
lines of interest in Pakistan. Hence, 132KV Line
interconnecting 220KV Grid Station New-Kotlakhpat and
132KV Grid Station Defense was selected owing to its highly
overloaded status during summer season every year
(especially in month of July, 2013) and climatic data
availability with favorable dynamics in the region. Assistance
in provision of geographical parameters, especially ambient
temperature (Ta), wind speed (Vw) and wind direction, was
taken from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The
time resolution (or time step) for the recorded meteorological
data was on average 20 minutes. Shorter time step is essential
for correct DTR assessment [4]; however, 20 minutes is
adequate duration to know behavior of meteorological
parameters and analyze possibility of improved load handling
of transmission lines in the selected region.
1) Dynamic Parameters: Dynamic parameters play a
predominant role in real time rating (or DTR) of transmission
lines. Certain parameters, which are being prioritized for DTR
assessment, are related to the temperature changes and wind
behaviors in the region due to their satisfactory role in
maximizing transmission lines rating, as explained in [13].
a) Ambient Temperature: According to IEEE standards
738TM-2006 [4], for calculating the ampacity of bare overhead
conductors, the ambient temperature has a significant impact
on the thermal rating of conductors. The ambient temperature
variations for the month of July, 2013 in selected region are
depicted in Fig. 1. This figure illustrates that 40oC is the
maximum limit for ambient temperature that occurred during
month of July, 2013. Due to tropical nature of the area, more
extremities in temperatures can also be expected over other
courses of time.
On the other hand, the conservative ambient temperature
used by PSOP to calculate the thermal rating of conductors is
usually 40oC. Whereas, high ambient temperature of class 36-
40oC occurred only 10.84% of the time, as shown in Fig. 1.
This suggests increase in capacity of transmission lines if their
capacity is utilized for lower ambient temperatures.
b) Conductor Operating Temperature: Integrity of
conductor is subject to its operating temperature changes; that
is, conductors start annealing at some specific temperature.
According to [14], the onset of annealing of aluminum occurs
at 100oC. However, embedded with steel, as in ACSR,
conductors strength is significantly increased. Annealing
further depends upon the cumulative effect of aluminum
temperature and operating time. Like other conductors, it can
tolerate high fault currents for shorter times. In [14], it is
depicted by a figure that Aluminum can drop its 5% strength
when operated for 2 hours at 150oC or 500 hours at 100oC.
Therefore, selecting an appropriate conductor temperature is a
prime consideration in rating of conductors.
c)
Fig. 1. Ambient temperature variations in the month of July, 2013, for
Lahore region of Pakistan.
2
 As per conductor data sheet of PSOP, operating
temperature for rating of conductors is strictly static and low;
that is, its maximum value is 50oC. Selection of optimum
value for conductor operating temperature is the choice made
by PSOP keeping base the ground clearance, strength, etc. of
the conductor in the respective regions. Since, aluminum can
tolerate higher values for shorter operating time, different
capacities for maximum allowable conductor temperature
from 60oC to 100oC were chosen to assess the multifarious
uprating possibilities in overloaded conditions.
d) Wind Speed: Wind speed is the most significant Fig. 3. Frequency of different wind speeds classes in the month of July,
parameter in removing heat from conductor through 2013, for Lahore region of Pakistan.
convection [4]. Adequate wind flow over significant course of
time is necessary in uprating of transmission lines. Fig. 2 and To estimate more accurate ratings, we also considers role
Fig.3 are illustrating wind speed variations and frequency of of winds actual directions and their effective angle with the
different wind speeds classes respectively, in the month of axis of conductor. To make it more clear, effective angles are
July, 2013 for Lahore region of Pakistan. Wind flow is highly shown in Fig. 4 for only 1st July, 2013.
uncertain and probability of its absence or low speeds is also 2) Fixed Parameters: Fixed (or conservative) parameters
high, as clear from Fig. 2. Nonetheless, occurrences of
are based on geographical and solar conditions as well as
considerable wind speeds can be observed too for substantial
conductors specifaction. They have usually fixed values for a
periods, for which wind can play effective role in convective
given conductor type and a restricted region; though,
cooling. Statistics shown in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 manifest that
frequency of wind speeds ranging from 1-5 m/s is 82.28%, negligible variations can occur in geographical and solar
and it reaches to about 88.5% if speed range is extended to 1-7 parameters if geography of a conductor is slightly varied. In
m/s. our case, their values are assumed fixed, as the length of the
selected line is about 5km. All such values, which are
Contrarily, conservative value of 0 m/s or 0.61 m/s is
commonly used by PSOP in transmission lines rating. necessary to find conductor ratings, are summarized below:
Whereas, the region of interest experiences adequate wind
flows during the summer season particularly in the month of Conductors Data:
July. Due to this reason, a suitable month (i.e. July) is Conductor description: ASTM B232, ACSR, 954
preferred to analyze the extra available capacity. 45/7, Rail;
Emissivity: 0.5;
e) Wind Direction: Another major factor in convective Solar absorptivity: 0.5 for day time and 0 for night
cooling of overhead conductor is wind direction. Quite often, time;
it is considered perpendicular in relative to conductor axis for Number of conductors per phase: 1;
best possible cooling effect, but the approach adopted is Outside diameter: 29.59mm;
highly conservative. Decreasing effective angle of wind with AC Resistance: 6.177 x 10-5 /m (at 25oC) and 7.38
conductors axis () results in reducing their capacity and x 10-5 /m (at 75oC);
increasing conductor operating temperature. More about DC Resistance (at 20oC): 5.91 x 10-5 /m.
effects of wind direction can be found in [15].

Fig. 2. Wind speed variations in the month of July, 2013, for Lahore Fig. 4.Wind effective angle () with conductor axis calculated for 1st
region of Pakistan. July, 2013.

3
Solar and Geographic Data: during day and night period, were 40oC and 35oC
Line Direction: South-West->North-East, i.e. respectively. These maximum values for ambient temperature
Azimuth of the line: 45o (with respect to North); are chosen presuming maximum possible constraint on
Average Latitude: 31.71o North; capacity of transmission line. Additionally, conductor
Average Elevation above sea level: 220 m; operating temperature used by PSOP for rating is 50oC.
Therefore, each periods (day and night) result is drawn
Atmosphere: Industrial; separately for conductor temperature of 60oC, 80oC and 100oC
Altitude of the sun (1st July, 2013 (noon, 12:07 PM)): in Fig. 5, Fig. 6 and Fig. 7, respectively. Dependency on wind
81.5; speed is selected from 0-7 m/s owing to the fact that about
Azimuth of the sun (1st July, 2013): 62o. 98% of the recorded speed values lie in this speed range (also
shown in Fig. 3). Keeping in view above possibilities, various
Absorptivity and Emissivity increase from 0.2 to 0.9 and maximum possible capacities based upon varying climatic and
depend upon the atmospheric pollution and aging of the conductor conditions (named as conditional ampacity) are
conductor. Absorptivity has generally a larger value than evaluated.
emissivity over the life of conductor [16], [17]. Since, the As can be seen from Fig. 5 to Fig.7, selected dynamic
actual conditions of the conductors surface for this region parameters show major influence on conditional ampacity.
cannot be figured out correctly; thus, the preferred rule of Table I is showing approximated minimum wind speeds at
thumb is to select 0.5 for absorptivity and emissivity, or 0.9 different conditions that should occur so that conditional
for absorptivity and 0.7 for emissivity [4]. ampacity be able to crosses over static rating. Due to absence
of sun affects, improved load handling of transmission lines
III. Results can be seen for night time. That is, conditional ampacity of
transmission line crosses static rating at lower wind speeds
Actual load variations of transmission lines in Pakistan can and lesser effective angles () for night time as compare to
hardly be monitored for any specified period. The reason is, as day period. Expectedly, conditional ampacity for wind speed
mentioned earlier, the shedding of load of the overloaded (0 m/s), effective angle (0o), conductor operating temperature
transmission lines before reaching their rated thermal (60oC) and day time illustrates worst case (in Fig. 5a), while
thresholds. Thus, in this case analysis, maximum allowable conversely is true for Fig. 7b presenting optimal scenario.
capacity of the transmission line (or static rating), for which it
is designed, is used as a comparable entity to guess the extra
available transmission capacity. For ASTM B232, ACSR,
45/7, Rail conductor, this maximum threshold current (or
static rating) is 989 Amperes used by PSOP for ambient
temperature (40oC), conductor operating temperature (50oC)
and wind velocity (0.61 m/s).
In addition, as discussed in Section II, actual climatic and
conductor thermal conditions provide favorable cases to
maximize transmission lines capacity. Like, in Fig. 1, ambient
temperature is below 40oC most of the time during month of
July, 2013. Similarly, for more than 91% of the recorded
readings, wind speed is greater than 0.61 m/s, as depicted in
Fig. 2 and Fig. 3. Moreover, conductor operating temperature
used for rating is highly conservative and low. As shown in (a) Day time
[14], Aluminum starts annealing at 100oC and losses 5%
strength when operated for 500 hours at this temperature.
Occurrence of such condition is extremely less probable.
Firstly, it is due to the rapid load reductions during off-peak
hours that occur during morning and late night. Secondly, the
favorable climatic conditions always keep it below this
threshold. Thus, conductor operating temperature greater than
50oC can be utilized and 100oC can be taken as a safe upper
limit for shorter overloaded durations.
In order to provide a clear and simplified, though
meaningful, view, results are shown only for limited climatic
and few conductor conditions. Assessments are divided into (b) Night time
two periods: day time and night time. Essential parameters Fig. 5. Conditional ampacities for increasing wind speeds at
relating sun, which are described in [4], are taken into various wind effective angles and at conductor temperature (60oC).
consideration in determining day time ampacity. Maximum
ambient temperatures, that were recorded most of the time

4

(a) Day time
(b) Night time
Fig. 6. Conditional ampacities for increasing wind speeds at various
wind effective angles and at conductor temperature (80oC).
It is also obvious from Fig. 5 to Fig. 7, if conductor
temperature is allowed to reach 100oC, conditional ampacity
of transmission line cross over static rating at negligible wind
speeds and extremely small effective angles. Definitely,
conductor temperature (100oC) must be avoided for larger
operating durations, still transmission line can handle
congested condition for significant periods. The reason is:
selected region experiences wind flow greater than 2 m/s for
77.45% of time which can lower conductor temperature
through convective cooling. It is also clear from Table I that if
conductor operating temperature is allowed to adjust itself (i.e.
between 60oC and 100oC) to the most favorable changing
climatic conditions, significant improvement in capacity can
be achieved even at negligible wind speeds (i.e. 0.1m/s).
Conversely, in worst conditions, wind speed greater than 7m/s
is required to gain increase in capacity.
Furthermore, according to [4], maximum ampacity should
occur at maximum wind speed given that other rating
conditions are constant. While utilizing ampacity for larger
duration, probability of wind speed should also be high; so
that wind can neutralize the negative effects of conductor
annealing. Hence, range of wind speed is contracted to 0-5m/s
which owns frequency of 91.36%. Maximum extra available
capacities for different proposed rating conditions is presented
in Table II. This table is showing extra available capacities as
low as 0% (for worst conditions) and as high as 104.2% (for
optimal conditions). Similarly, under all supposed conditions
given in Table II, the increase in capacity is on average
38.15% and 51.37% for day time and night time respectively.
Moreover, frequency of wind flow can decrease with
increasing its speed value, which decreases capacity of line.
However, adjustable conductor temperature can counter this
discrepancy subject to overloading periods. That is, conductor
temperature shall be increased to safer limits, as explained in
[14], for limited overloading durations and lesser wind speeds.

TABLE I. APPROXIMATED MINIMUM WIND SPEEDS AT WHICH CONDITIONAL

AMPACITY CROSSES OVER STATIC RATING FOR DAY AND NIGHT AT VARIOUS
CONDUCTOR TEMPERATURES AND WIND EFFECTIVE ANGLES
Effective Angle [Degree]
Tc 0 22.5 45 67.5 90 0 22.5 45 67.5 90
[oC] Min. Wind Speed Min. Wind Speed
(a) Day time for Day [m/s] for Night [m/s]
60 >7 6.5 4.3 3.7 3.3 >7 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.8
80 4.7 1.9 1.3 1.1 1 2.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5
100 2.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1

TABLE II. MAXIMUM EXTRA AVAILABLE CAPACITIES FOR DAY AND NIGHT
AT VARIOUS CONDUCTOR TEMPERATURES, WIND EFFECTIVE ANGLES AND
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 5 m/s
Effective Angle [Degree]
Tc 0 22.5 45 67.5 90 0 22.5 45 67.5 90
[oC] Max. Extra Available Capacity Max. Extra Available Capacity
for Day [%] for Night [%]
(b) Night time 60 0 0 5.2 10.2 14.1 0 12.1 25.4 30.7 34.8
Fig. 7. Conditional ampacities for increasing wind speeds at
80 2.2 32.2 48.9 55.5 60.7 15.5 45.8 62.9 69.7 75.1
various wind effective angles and at conductor temperature
(100oC). 100 24.9 59.6 79 86.7 92.8 35.4 70.3 90.2 98 104.2

5

IV. Conclusion
In this case study, applicability of dynamic thermal
rating methodology to alleviate electric transmission
congestion is analyzed. Impact of dynamic rating
parameters, i.e. ambient temperature, conductor operating
temperature, wind speed and wind direction, on current
carrying capacity of 132KV transmission line in Lahore
region of Pakistan is discussed. It proposes smart, real time
rating of the transmission line based on actual weather
conditions in the region and adjustable conductor operating
temperatures. The analysis reveals possible extra-available
capacities under various weather and conductor temperature
conditions which can be utilized in order to relieve electric
transmission congestion and power supply interruptions.
This work is, however, done for a single transmission line,
yet asserts possibility of smart rating of transmission lines
in other regions of Pakistan as well. Detailed analysis of
other regions of Pakistan would be addressed in our future
work.
Canadian Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering
(CCECE), Regina, Canada, pp. 1-4, May 5-8, 2013.
[14] Aluminum Electrical Conductor Handbook. 3rd ed., Washington, D.C.:
Aluminum Association, 1989.
[15] J. Heckenbergerova, P. Musilek, and K. Filimonenkov, Quantification
of gains and risks of static thermal rating based on typical
meteorological year, International Journal of Electrical Power &
Energy Systems, vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 227-235, January 2013.
[16] H. E. House, W. S. Rigdon, R. J. Grosh, and W. B. Cottingham,
Emissivity of weathered conductors after service in rural and industrial
environments, AIEE Transactions, pp. 891-896, Feb.1963.
[17] C. S. Taylor, and H. E. House, Emissivity and its effects on the current
carrying capacity of stranded aluminum conductors, AIEE
Transactions, vol. 75, pt. III, pp. 970-976, Oct. 1956.

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