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Abstract
Sembako is nine essential commodities needed by society society according to the Decree of the Minister of
Industry and Trade No. 115/MPP/KEP/2/1998 dated February 27, 1998. With this designation, the government
should continue to maintain a stock of sembako. In this study, basic food items studied were chicken eggs with a
case study in East Java. East Java is the area of highest population of broiler chickens in Indonesia so that this
commodity has a bright future in East Java and to be supplied in other areas. A commodity that is categorized
as basic food ingredient IS really basic, the point is these materials are the materials most demand or materials
that are needed in the community. The fluctuative and dynamic nature of chicken egg prices requires
government to maintain the existing stock in order to keep prices stable. With the enactment of chicken eggs as
a staple food, the price of chicken eggs or the market price could retrace called market mechanisms, market
mechanisms if they mean higher demand, insufficient production, then the price could be stable, while if demand
is high, the production/supply is not sufficient, then the price will soar ride. So far, the government only needs to
rely on imports to cover the high demand, on the other hand the government can not continuously imports to
cover domestic needs. This paper provides an overview by applying bufferstock management to maintain price
stability and as much as possible to reduce imports. System Dynamic(SD) approach was applied to simulate
dynamic price changes, systems, and actors who interact in a large and complex chicken egg trade, as well as
the feedback of the system to the price of a chicken egg, this paper gives an overview of the conceptual
framework of a chicken egg farm industry, production, demand, by taking into account the price disparity and
inflation at each region with system dynamics approach.
Keywords: Chicken Egg Production and Price, System Dynamics, Conceptual Framework
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ISBN: 978-602-9372-70-0
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loop diagrams that explain the causal relationship the main purpose of the buffer stock is to protect
between the variables and convert the causal loop against failures in the supply chain steps in the
diagram into a flow diagram. production process at the factory to meet customer
Step 3: Formulation: demand from the upstream and downstream.
To determine the dynamic system models, after Bufferstock has been implemented in stabilizing
change the causal loop diagram into a flow diagram, prices as for example in research Swaray [23] showed
further the system must translate into levels, rates that the presence of a bufferstock could stabilize
and create auxiliary equations. To estimate the prices and incomes from cocoa producers.
number of parameters, behavior relationship, and the
initial condition.
Step 4: Testing: 3 METHODOLOGY
The purpose of testing is to compare the 3.1 Causal Loop Diagram
behavior of simulation models against actual behavior Causal-loop diagrams can be created and are
of the system. often used in system dynamics to illustrate cause and
Step 5: Policy Formulation and evaluation: effect relationships. In such diagrams arrows are used
Modelers could take advantage of the model is to indicate the relationships. Sometimes, information
valid for designing and evaluating policies for about the way in which the relationship works is also
improvement. included in the diagram. The relationship between
price and sales is such a relationship, where an
Validation of simulation models in general, and increase in price leads to a decrease in sales [1]. The
System Dynamics (SD) models in particular con-sists system dynamics facilities [8]:
of two types of validity tests [3]: Generates and explain past behavior of the
a. Structural validity tests, the function of which is industry.
to check whether the structure of the model is an Identify variable which related with the egg
adequate representation of the real structure. chicken production.
b. Behavior validity tests, the function of which is To project the future behavior of industry and
to check if the model is capable of producing an also to answer IF-THEN type of questions.
acceptable output behavior. Test the various policies, which can be designed
to increase the performance of eggs production
and market price.
2.3 Bufferstock Recommend the suitable policies, which help in
Differentiation of buffer stock and safety stock price stabilization, increase inventories, egg price
are a buffer stock to prevent manufacturers from the determination suitable for long-term growth
possibility can not meet customer demand while System Dynamic (SD) can be used to analyze
safety stock helps manufacturers to meet variations in maintain chicken egg price stable in East Java (figure.
the supply of raw materials[5]. 4) because the problem are very complex, instability
According to Jensen et al.[10] in Puijman [16], eggs prices while demand increases and the decline of
Government Policy
+ Technology
(Extension)
<Egg <Total Egg
Repairing Process Productivity> Production In East <Total Egg
Cattle (Intensification) Java> Demand>
+
+ Maintenance
+ + + Egg Distribution
+
Productivity Egg Production + + Logistic
+ Bufferstock
+ + Management
Quality Of Seeds
(Intensification) + +
+
Market Price
+ +
+ <Fulfillment Ratio>
Chicken Farmer
<Egg Price>
Figure 5. Causal loop scenarios development to Maintain Egg Price Stable
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